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2023-02-22 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-13", 0.6581967345874646], ["2022-12-13", 0.7048127400769739], ["2022-12-13", 0.7048127400769739], ["2022-12-13", 0.7048127400769739], ["2022-12-13", 0.7048127400769739], ["2022-12-13", 0.7048127400769741], ["2022-12-14", 0.7199638794297233], ["2022-12-20", 0.70151104983472... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-s-g-fall-out-of-the-top-10-cre | Resolution to Yes if S G fell out of the top 10 creators chart at any point in 2023, and someone commented a screenshot as proof. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-22 | Will S G fall out of the top 10 creators chart at any point in 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-20 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.5901639344262292], ["2022-12-13", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-21", 0.5404411764705885], ["2023-03-19", 0.9895988343110728], ["2023-03-19", 0.9991951327048684], ["2023-03-19", 0.9994978026995128], ["2023-03-19", 0.9994978026995128], ["2023-03-19", 0.9994978026995128], ["2023-03-20", 0.98792780363060... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-void-fall-out-of-the-top-1 | Resolution to Yes if the Void fell out of the top 10 creators chart at any point in 2023, and someone commented a screenshot as proof. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-05 | Will the Void fall out of the top 10 creators chart at any point in 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.4046339994876018], ["2022-12-13", 0.4377431906614785], ["2022-12-13", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-14", 0.3335562988909576], ["2022-12-14", 0.3634178473726777], ["2022-12-15", 0.35882776718368886], ["2022-12-16", 0.3336391913700304], ["2022-12-16", 0.3421191056317888], ["2022-12-16", 0.3421191056317... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-more-than-50-chinese-h6-bomber | So far 23 have entered the ADIZ this month, the highest number by far since they started releasing such data in 2020. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will more than 50 Chinese H6 bombers breach the Taiwanese ADIZ during the month of December? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-29 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-13", 0.6558649490613091], ["2022-12-13", 0.7023194147124715], ["2022-12-13", 0.7023194147124715], ["2022-12-20", 0.6797303630928699], ["2022-12-21", 0.6532260470540959], ["2023-03-19", 0.94], ["2023-03-19", 0.9633996484754617], ["2023-03-19", 0.9749092633821448], ["2023-03... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-jaam-fall-out-of-the-top-10-cr | Resolution to Yes if JAAM fell out of the top 10 creators chart at any point in 2023, and someone commented a screenshot as proof. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-29 | Will JAAM fall out of the top 10 creators chart at any point in 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-22 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.674648620510151], ["2022-12-18", 0.5522504282821991], ["2022-12-21", 0.41136943590268965], ["2022-12-21", 0.47694563818228947], ["2023-01-20", 0.058270743612074204], ["2023-01-20", 0.07493743501877981], ["2023-01-21", 0.02379718950120929], ["2023-01-22", 0.013037208954155102], ["2023-01-22", 0.0203312... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-eva-kaili-be-convicted-before | "Belgian media identified the state as Qatar and reported that those charged included a European Parliament vice president, Eva Kaili, and her partner, parliamentary assistant Francesco Giorgi, as well as a former member of the European Parliament, Pier Antonio Panzeri. Others reportedly caught up in the investigation ... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-23 | Will Eva Kaili be convicted before 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-01 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-13", 0.8284057176305687], ["2022-12-13", 0.8430141937259537], ["2022-12-14", 0.5924680398260562], ["2022-12-14", 0.6099999999999999], ["2022-12-14", 0.673918747060179], ["2022-12-14", 0.6796129242538903], ["2022-12-14", 0.6899999999999998], ["2022-12-14", 0.69], ["2022-12-... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-us-deliver-a-patriot-missi | Resolves YES if confirmed by DoD that they delivered patriot missiles to Ukraine to use against Russia. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will the US deliver a patriot missile battery to Ukraine by the end of January 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-16 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-13", 0.6923076923076923], ["2022-12-13", 0.7486230590378499], ["2022-12-13", 0.78], ["2022-12-13", 0.810818065856402], ["2022-12-13", 0.8349519429399552], ["2022-12-14", 0.5205948113614783], ["2022-12-14", 0.536875329374668], ["2022-12-14", 0.5599999999999999], ["2022-12-1... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-tesla-trade-below-150-by-the-e | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-16 | Will Tesla trade below 150 by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-13 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.012817849747245374], ["2022-12-13", 0.013712440874194091], ["2022-12-13", 0.014719755977568496], ["2022-12-13", 0.015102724828608567], ["2022-12-13", 0.04330024804087223], ["2022-12-13", 0.05169979884373254], ["2022-12-13", 0.104974141682224], ["2022-12-13", 0.11446984195056255], ["2022-12-13", 0.1506... | https://manifold.markets/Preen/will-the-price-of-sp-500-futures-es | Resolves according to Dec 13, 6:53pm: Close date updated to 2022-12-13 10:40 pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-13 | Will the price of S&P 500 futures (ESA Index) be between 4000 and 4080 at 9:30 am Eastern Time 13 December? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-22 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.5475113122171945], ["2022-12-13", 0.625362492097982], ["2022-12-13", 0.6848828777575281], ["2022-12-13", 0.7328231881282913], ["2022-12-13", 0.7714839490480051], ["2022-12-14", 0.7876609042638673], ["2022-12-14", 0.8071088501550897], ["2022-12-15", 0.815011438778913], ["2022-12-15", 0.8218149874540723... | https://manifold.markets/KGlassey/will-testimony-from-caroline-elliso | The SEC has pressed charges against SBF for defrauding FTX investors Caroline Ellison has reportedly been spoted in New York Market will close when either the initial trial concludes or Ellision testifies. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-24 | Will testimony from Caroline Ellison come up during the SEC's trial of Bankman-Fried? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-15 | 2022-12-13 | ["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.27272727272727276], ["2022-12-13", 0.29999999999999993], ["2022-12-13", 0.5], ["2022-12-13", 0.5833826091813], ["2022-12-13", 0.6], ["2022-12-13", 0.9], ["2022-12-13", 0.9266906326818013], ["2022-12-13", 0.9359945246536867], ["2022-12-13", 0.9440467844898233], ["2022-12-14", 0.8926564912038383], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/GeneFama/will-bitcoin-price-be-above-17140-a-09191006e413 | Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-15 | Will Bitcoin price be above $17140 at Dec 14 10pm ET? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-14 | 2022-12-13 | ["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.3879084519588107], ["2022-12-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-13", 0.447441678498479], ["2022-12-13", 0.48000000000000004], ["2022-12-13", 0.5023241938071281], ["2022-12-13", 0.5030200760267052], ["2022-12-13", 0.51], ["2022-12-13", 0.51], ["2022-12-13", 0.51], ["2022-12-13", 0.5163890381515316], [... | https://manifold.markets/GeneFama/will-bitcoin-price-be-above-17140-a-4516a5fb45dd | Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-14 | Will Bitcoin price be above $17140 at Dec 13 10pm ET? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-13 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.007000294617148803], ["2022-12-13", 0.008288743913440769], ["2022-12-13", 0.00892716116088705], ["2022-12-13", 0.009696836243389156], ["2022-12-13", 0.013210024337634166], ["2022-12-13", 0.01462774295150436], ["2022-12-13", 0.01517917962708938], ["2022-12-13", 0.015543800070078185], ["2022-12-13", 0.0... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-croatia-score-against-argentin | Argentina is the heavy favorite, but will Croatia still be able to score? Resolves YES if Croatia scores a goal no including shoot-out goals. If the score is 0-0 and the game goes into a shoot-out I will resolve YES if Croatia wins. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-13 | Will Croatia score against Argentina? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.12749503548282656], ["2022-12-13", 0.14130884309331404], ["2022-12-13", 0.17697931714531526], ["2022-12-13", 0.1992361644199625], ["2022-12-13", 0.19999999999999996], ["2022-12-13", 0.21701374738433457], ["2022-12-13", 0.23999999999999996], ["2022-12-13", 0.25498101822778496], ["2022-12-13", 0.2808988... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-sbf-make-a-tweet-before-dec-31 | Evaluation according to Twitter account @SBF_FTX This market was created on Dec 12, 2022 8:30pm ET | Other | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-30 | Will SBF make a tweet before Dec 31, 2022 11:59pm ET? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-23 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-13", 0.6458305384784815], ["2022-12-13", 0.6813988677199747], ["2022-12-13", 0.7123253789262854], ["2022-12-14", 0.6548976924900651], ["2022-12-16", 0.6231435425015698], ["2022-12-16", 0.65], ["2022-12-16", 0.6504762877750777], ["2022-12-16", 0.6751452975535133], ["2022-12... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-caroline-ellison-testify-again | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-23 | Will Caroline Ellison testify against SBF? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.2198327205738001], ["2022-12-15", 0.22035330235036252], ["2022-12-15", 0.24902072420051896], ["2022-12-15", 0.25158136589827657], ["2022-12-15", 0.25706940874035994], ["2022-12-15", 0.2627722479923394], ["2022-12-15", 0.28], ["2022-12-15", 0.30769230769230776], ["2022-12-15", 0.31245807422010685], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-julian-alvarez-score-a-goal-du | This is any goal at all in the game of Argentina vs France in the 2022 FIFA World Cup Final | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will Julián Álvarez score a goal during the FIFA 2022 Finals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.4603490531928082], ["2022-12-14", 0.46159527326440175], ["2022-12-14", 0.462134959686366], ["2022-12-14", 0.46222831783258855], ["2022-12-14", 0.47252901492102173], ["2022-12-14", 0.4807812342257645], ["2022-12-14", 0.4904770542354435], ["2022-12-14", 0.49975586028590235], ["2022-12-14", 0.51], ["2022... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-messi-score-a-goal-during-the | This is any goal at all in the game of Argentina vs France in the 2022 FIFA World Cup Final | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will Messi score a goal during the FIFA 2022 Finals? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-14 | ["https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.3378378378378379], ["2022-12-14", 0.5958762886597938], ["2022-12-15", 0.33489004827888075], ["2022-12-15", 0.33489004827888075], ["2022-12-15", 0.38000000000000017], ["2022-12-15", 0.3866714564173813], ["2022-12-15", 0.39088817205002024], ["2022-12-15", 0.4028468463226195], ["2022-12-15", 0.4228150010... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/war-in-ukraine-will-russia-lose-105 | Ukraine's Armed Forces estimate Russia's losses daily, which is published by Kyiv Independent. https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/ past numbers: related: | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 105,000 troops by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-21 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.0023930503731660947], ["2022-12-14", 0.19], ["2022-12-14", 0.33], ["2022-12-14", 0.6632811690330603], ["2022-12-14", 0.6632811690330603], ["2022-12-14", 0.6632811690330603], ["2022-12-14", 0.7191011235955056], ["2022-12-14", 0.75], ["2022-12-14", 0.75], ["2022-12-14", 0.75], ["2022-12-14", 0.783706415... | https://manifold.markets/zlare/will-genshin-impact-run-on-linux-b | Note: Through something like Wine is fine. HOWEVER: The release of the Steam Deck also biases this in favor of a Yes. Note that GeForce Now or similar game streaming solutions count as YES as far as I'm concerned. Currently, GeForce Now blocks browsers accessing Genshin which have a Linux user agent. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-21 | Will Genshin Impact run on Linux b the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-31 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.5475113122171945], ["2022-12-15", 0.475857023486023], ["2022-12-15", 0.47862471661000916], ["2022-12-15", 0.48999999999999994], ["2022-12-15", 0.49759405328174156], ["2022-12-15", 0.4980385736283429], ["2022-12-15", 0.5055163416529035], ["2022-12-15", 0.510536471961674], ["2022-12-15", 0.5126350927539... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/will-ukraine-control-any-territory-e64578a2c24a | Resolves YES if Ukraine controls any territory within 20km of Azov sea coast for at least 3 days by the end of March. For the purposes of this question, Molochnyi Lyman and Syvash lake are | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Will Ukraine control any territory near Azov sea by end of March 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-17 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.5194130307126219], ["2022-12-14", 0.5475113122171945], ["2022-12-14", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-12-15", 0.3938107893687044], ["2022-12-15", 0.4456390734505237], ["2022-12-15", 0.49381519528581586], ["2022-12-15", 0.5322351797218645], ["2022-12-16", 0.4939491641008544], ["2022-12-16", 0.4939491641008... | https://manifold.markets/RafaelZamora/will-there-be-63-or-more-goals-at-t | Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score The match is: -Morocco vs Croatia Dec 14, 3:04pm: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-17 | Will there be
3 or more goals at the third place match of the FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.056039901185196174], ["2022-12-14", 0.059381012327498185], ["2022-12-14", 0.07999999999999995], ["2022-12-14", 0.08684092751740129], ["2022-12-14", 0.08999999999999996], ["2022-12-14", 0.09022390728534668], ["2022-12-14", 0.09022390728534674], ["2022-12-14", 0.09784171968289126], ["2022-12-14", 0.1016... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-any-player-get-a-red-card-in-t | Final match only, not 3rd place match. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will any player get a red card in the final match of the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-17 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.18846801187717457], ["2022-12-14", 0.21691973969631248], ["2022-12-14", 0.337837837837838], ["2022-12-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-15", 0.18064822844572964], ["2022-12-15", 0.19074624746732016], ["2022-12-15", 0.1918732695167003], ["2022-12-15", 0.1956264708319579], ["2022-12-15", 0.20876658441... | https://manifold.markets/nickten/will-croatia-vs-morocco-be-decided | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-17 | Will Croatia vs Morocco be decided via penalty shoot-out? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.3401883682246236], ["2022-12-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-15", 0.35468894965189723], ["2022-12-15", 0.3683449271629241], ["2022-12-15", 0.38814695148824063], ["2022-12-15", 0.39518609166453844], ["2022-12-15", 0.39649353483920274], ["2022-12-17", 0.38187088515459156], ["2022-12-17", 0.427677794... | https://manifold.markets/RafaelZamora/will-there-be-3-or-more-goals-at-th | Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score The match is: -France vs Argentina | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will there be 3 or more goals at the final of the FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.29107105087636626], ["2022-12-14", 0.30000000000000004], ["2022-12-14", 0.30158884182671564], ["2022-12-14", 0.3462124895602639], ["2022-12-14", 0.3462124895602639], ["2022-12-14", 0.3629088047550154], ["2022-12-14", 0.3748896597850177], ["2022-12-14", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-12-14", 0.48257743555... | https://manifold.markets/RafaelZamora/will-there-be-3-or-more-goals-at-fi | Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score The match is France vs Argentina | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will there be 3 or more goals at final of the FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-17 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.5196003074558031], ["2022-12-15", 0.447932226777218], ["2022-12-15", 0.48594169087287803], ["2022-12-16", 0.43499373943921676], ["2022-12-16", 0.48512164831687216], ["2022-12-16", 0.4946762970761249], ["2022-12-16", 0.4946762970761249], ["2022-12-16", 0.4946762970761249], ["2022-12-16", 0.513654665357... | https://manifold.markets/nickten/croatia-vs-morocco-will-more-than-2 | 0, 1 or 2 combined goals = NO 3 or more = YES Overtime/extra time goals do count. Shoot-out goals | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-17 | Croatia vs Morocco - Will more than 2.5 goals be scored? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.3505268372429451], ["2022-12-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-15", 0.3460072893541761], ["2022-12-15", 0.3810270889985338], ["2022-12-15", 0.3968969926745076], ["2022-12-15", 0.3988517368607414], ["2022-12-15", 0.4014414540288446], ["2022-12-15", 0.41944820943030475], ["2022-12-15", 0.4299578831003... | https://manifold.markets/nickten/france-vs-argentina-will-more-than | 0, 1 or 2 combined goals = NO 3 or more = YES Overtime/extra time goals do count. Shoot-out goals | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | France vs Argentina - Will more than 2.5 goals be scored? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.1969894835174343], ["2022-12-14", 0.21691973969631248], ["2022-12-14", 0.22224035860675925], ["2022-12-14", 0.337837837837838], ["2022-12-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-14", 0.4919861757810313], ["2022-12-15", 0.18745977772388403], ["2022-12-15", 0.1953316960022513], ["2022-12-15", 0.213928968135... | https://manifold.markets/nickten/will-france-vs-argentina-be-decided | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will France vs Argentina be decided via penalty shoot-out? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-16 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.5], ["2022-12-14", 0.5], ["2022-12-14", 0.5146091446448017], ["2022-12-14", 0.5196003074558031], ["2022-12-14", 0.5962976660944328], ["2022-12-14", 0.6096030617121381], ["2022-12-14", 0.6178024632269986], ["2022-12-14", 0.6221777555120518], ["2022-12-14", 0.6400000000000001], ["2022-12-14", 0.65181345... | https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-the-san-francisco-49ers-defeat | Seattle is at home. San Francisco is favored by 3 points. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-16 | Will the San Francisco 49ers defeat the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-22 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-14", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-14", 0.7061562990279896], ["2022-12-14", 0.7251660387919446], ["2022-12-15", 0.750249188432911], ["2022-12-17", 0.691283108040711], ["2022-12-17", 0.71], ["2022-12-17", 0.7304026248924813], ["2022-12-17", 0.7398074430728435], ["2022-12-1... | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-caroline-be-offered-a-deal | (Any deal, including one that already occurred, for plea or for testimony) | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-22 | Will Caroline be offered a deal? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-14", 0.4262847557350813], ["2022-12-14", 0.48342709613788687], ["2022-12-14", 0.49147164579233543], ["2022-12-14", 0.5645115479922469], ["2022-12-14", 0.7357521903445278], ["2022-12-15", 0.4060699498717466], ["2022-12-15", 0.42], ["2022-12-15", 0.42], ["2022-12-15", 0.42],... | https://manifold.markets/nickten/will-kylian-mbappe-score-against-ar | Shoot-out goals | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will Kylian Mbappé score against Argentina? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-01 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-14", 0.6506275510224373], ["2022-12-15", 0.6616023227188877], ["2022-12-20", 0.7133939949459499], ["2022-12-22", 0.5697463199707651], ["2022-12-22", 0.6], ["2022-12-23", 0.62586180130672], ["2022-12-25", 0.4301234220672673], ["2022-12-25", 0.4588627763246064], ["2022-12-25... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-e38ad3bcdc72 | How much will The Fed raise the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, Jan 31 - Feb 1 2023? Resolves YES if they raise the rate by at least the amount specified in the title, otherwise NO. Grouped questions: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will the Fed raise the fed funds rate by at least 50 bps in the Feb 2023 meeting? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-01 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.5000000000000002], ["2022-12-14", 0.8], ["2022-12-14", 0.8], ["2022-12-14", 0.8287671232876713], ["2022-12-14", 0.851544437435184], ["2022-12-14", 0.8644133381625217], ["2022-12-16", 0.8724770950795082], ["2022-12-19", 0.8789078357400153], ["2022-12-22", 0.8842155184221843], ["2022-12-22", 0.918441119... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-a851ad31703f | How much will The Fed raise the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, Jan 31 - Feb 1 2023? Resolves YES if they raise the rate by at least the amount specified in the title, otherwise NO. Grouped questions: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will the Fed raise the fed funds rate by at least 25 bps in the Feb 2023 meeting? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-14 | ["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.17073909912768195], ["2022-12-14", 0.2], ["2022-12-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-14", 0.48359526615945964], ["2022-12-14", 0.5406326499350195], ["2022-12-14", 0.725858955654344], ["2022-12-15", 0.25258823385592416], ["2022-12-15", 0.29183593702490507], ["2022-12-15", 0.32], ["2022-12-15", 0.3599... | https://manifold.markets/tofu/will-ethereum-close-the-year-above | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/ | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Ethereum close the year above $1,350? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-01 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.005882352941176331], ["2022-12-14", 0.09999999999999827], ["2022-12-14", 0.1000000000000001], ["2022-12-15", 0.09247118504675106], ["2022-12-25", 0.03801502976241438], ["2023-01-02", 0.03680012153572716], ["2023-01-20", 0.012529960437378451], ["2023-01-20", 0.014228868923067102], ["2023-01-21", 0.0091... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-c3032349f0d9 | How much will The Fed raise the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, Jan 31 - Feb 1 2023? Resolves YES if they raise the rate by at least the amount specified in the title, otherwise NO. Grouped questions: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will the Fed raise the fed funds rate by at least 75 bps in the Feb 2023 meeting? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-09 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.08563000905921893], ["2022-12-14", 0.09999999999999996], ["2022-12-14", 0.22955064820107596], ["2022-12-14", 0.2605314888040742], ["2022-12-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-15", 0.07234022256406199], ["2022-12-25", 0.06396761350880517], ["2023-01-01", 0.04982157926515324], ["2023-01-01", 0.06114202... | https://manifold.markets/Hedgehog/will-any-major-new-technical-agi-sa | "Major" requires one of these two: “Technical AGI safety effort” requires: The announcement must take place between market open (Early Dec 14, 2022) and the end of 2022 (anywhere on earth). Will resolve early if someone presents sufficient evidence that this is happening. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-09 | Will any major new technical AGI safety efforts be announced in the remainder of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-11 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-14", 0.5622568093385214], ["2022-12-15", 0.3808386991402678], ["2022-12-15", 0.40000000000000013], ["2022-12-15", 0.5028004148561966], ["2022-12-15", 0.5028004148561966], ["2022-12-15", 0.5068042370060846], ["2022-12-15", 0.6075058223339315], ["2022-12-16", 0.3391485087110... | https://manifold.markets/Hedgehog/will-google-have-an-active-agi-safe | “AGI safety effort” can be demonstrated by either: This must be a technical effort to count. It should be oriented toward a technical AI/ML/CS audience, or primarily use the tools and ideas of that discipline. Joint projects involving multiple disciplines will count only if the technical AI/ML/CS-oriented component of ... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-13 | Will Google have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-31 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.2], ["2022-12-14", 0.24327307885401744], ["2022-12-14", 0.24348362658830966], ["2022-12-14", 0.26000000000000006], ["2022-12-14", 0.264732267240886], ["2022-12-14", 0.2861696642933194], ["2022-12-14", 0.28867157198724214], ["2022-12-14", 0.30000000000000004], ["2022-12-14", 0.3195485868365392], ["2022... | https://manifold.markets/tofu/will-binance-becomes-insolventdecla | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-31 | Will Binance becomes insolvent/declares bankruptcy before Jan 31st 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-14 | ["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.42976569154813027], ["2022-12-14", 0.4599999999999999], ["2022-12-14", 0.48432521211640656], ["2022-12-14", 0.4938363275709241], ["2022-12-14", 0.52], ["2022-12-14", 0.52], ["2022-12-14", 0.52], ["2022-12-14", 0.539003480721622], ["2022-12-14", 0.5491788647262938], ["2022-12-14", 0.5858749664842815], ... | https://manifold.markets/tofu/will-bitcoin-close-the-year-above-1-61bdf637dd3e | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Bitcoin close the year above $18,000? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.3378378378378379], ["2022-12-16", 0.23187978975930396], ["2022-12-21", 0.15382413991506344], ["2022-12-23", 0.10333437842135182], ["2022-12-23", 0.12472769516999674], ["2022-12-26", 0.06183017665131891], ["2022-12-30", 0.026218379921399776], ["2022-12-30", 0.0348267238526662]] | https://manifold.markets/toonces/will-ethereum-close-2022-above-1400 | Resolution will be determined using price at end of 2022 from | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Ethereum close 2022 above $1400? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.0694372610342128], ["2022-12-14", 0.07931522284117304], ["2022-12-14", 0.07931522284117304], ["2022-12-14", 0.1000000000000001], ["2022-12-14", 0.11999999999999997], ["2022-12-16", 0.06374566650910209], ["2022-12-16", 0.06648423764809029], ["2022-12-17", 0.07805959638233453], ["2022-12-19", 0.05361142... | https://manifold.markets/toonces/will-bitcoin-be-above-20000-at-the | Resolution will be determined using price at end of 2022 from | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Bitcoin be above $20,000 at the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-15 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.7191011235955056], ["2022-12-14", 0.7630286530220527], ["2022-12-14", 0.7892628190239395], ["2022-12-14", 0.8099063986694868], ["2022-12-14", 0.8439724510347657], ["2022-12-14", 0.874188326125464], ["2022-12-14", 0.8797477274999016], ["2022-12-14", 0.8860939557737921], ["2022-12-14", 0.890150090577092... | https://manifold.markets/toonces/will-there-be-celebrations-andor-ri | If there are news reports of fans celebrating and/or rioting in Paris after the France vs. Morocco match this will resolve yes. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-15 | Will there be celebrations and/or riots in Paris after the France vs. Morocco World Cup match? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.2364076557379545], ["2022-12-14", 0.2408037608510265], ["2022-12-14", 0.24241113324532612], ["2022-12-14", 0.24567603787196743], ["2022-12-14", 0.245697656411865], ["2022-12-14", 0.2511087464660167], ["2022-12-14", 0.2511670035475748], ["2022-12-14", 0.2672133524231382], ["2022-12-14", 0.2748530422980... | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-binance-suspend-withdrawals-fo-bbcb06855dc7 | Background: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Binance suspend withdrawals for more than 24 hours before the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-16 | 2022-12-14 | ["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.40983606557377056], ["2022-12-14", 0.4881153226810427], ["2022-12-14", 0.5000000000000001], ["2022-12-14", 0.5520770927711184], ["2022-12-14", 0.5543029701691828], ["2022-12-14", 0.5800000000000001], ["2022-12-14", 0.5800000000000001], ["2022-12-14", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-14", 0.6000504134948... | https://manifold.markets/GeneFama/will-bitcoin-price-be-above-17820-a-0f44757cdf2e | Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-16 | Will Bitcoin price be above $17820 at Dec 15 10pm ET? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-14 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 1.5887064325466835e-06], ["2022-12-14", 0.00043381435630399713], ["2022-12-14", 0.0004560114051162927], ["2022-12-14", 0.0004560114051162927], ["2022-12-14", 0.0004560114051162927], ["2022-12-14", 0.0004560114051162927], ["2022-12-14", 0.0004560114051162927], ["2022-12-14", 0.0004560114051162927], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/this-market-resolves-yes-if-and-onl | If the probability goes above 99% for 15 minutes, resolves NO immediately (or as soon as someone tells me about it). Otherwise, resolves YES at close. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-14 | This market resolves YES if and only if its probability never goes above 99% for more than 15 minutes. | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-14 | 2022-12-14 | ["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-14", 0.43908682042539743], ["2022-12-14", 0.45999999999999996], ["2022-12-14", 0.46030680551511177], ["2022-12-14", 0.5099999999999999], ["2022-12-14", 0.5099999999999999], ["2022-12-14", 0.5099999999999999], ["2022-12-14", 0.5163890381515316], ["2022-12-14", 0.52853741136... | https://manifold.markets/GeneFama/will-bitcoin-price-be-above-17820-a | Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-14 | Will Bitcoin price be above $17820 at Dec 14 10am ET? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-14 | 2022-12-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-14", 0.30783965161260113], ["2022-12-14", 0.32000000000000006], ["2022-12-14", 0.32000000000000006], ["2022-12-14", 0.32000000000000006], ["2022-12-14", 0.3327515480486199], ["2022-12-14", 0.3438170738479347], ["2022-12-14", 0.34540338877485294], ["2022-12-14", 0.3490992189143605], ["2022-12-14", 0.351867826... | https://manifold.markets/8/will-france-beat-morocco-by-2-goals | Resolves as expected (the score after 90 minutes / extra time, shootouts do not count). | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-14 | Will France beat Morocco by >= 2 goals? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-16 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.09884708315855005], ["2022-12-15", 0.13232504480426419], ["2022-12-15", 0.2125082643135865], ["2022-12-15", 0.2843420781391229], ["2022-12-15", 0.31257406183617736], ["2022-12-15", 0.3200000000000001], ["2022-12-15", 0.3277853225542955], ["2022-12-15", 0.34044134513343527], ["2022-12-15", 0.3410926814... | https://manifold.markets/Radicalia/will-there-be-a-tornado-warning-in | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-16 | Will there be a Tornado Warning in Orlando on 12/15? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-31 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.39665050683120323], ["2022-12-15", 0.4836109618484686], ["2022-12-15", 0.49635997990105274], ["2022-12-15", 0.5645706915990006], ["2022-12-15", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-15", 0.6688743010062259], ["2022-12-15", 0.7439449454537169], ["2022-12-15", 0.82], ["2022-12-15", 0.82], ["2022-12-15", 0.8325... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-elon-musk-sell-more-than-1bln | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-17 | Will Elon Musk sell more than $1Bln of Tesla stock during Q1 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-17 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-21", 0.35697060659699226], ["2022-12-22", 0.40343764113492575], ["2022-12-28", 0.46626412979476], ["2023-01-09", 0.5906424468086491], ["2023-01-09", 0.6], ["2023-01-09", 0.6417150853134628], ["2023-01-14", 0.5472117555402601], ["2023-02-17", 0.4649149431844903], ["2023-02-... | https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-any-participant-be-expelled-fr | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-17 | Will any participant be expelled from Big Brother Brasil 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-28 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.3777510850835168], ["2022-12-15", 0.4210308015653387], ["2022-12-15", 0.5475113122171945], ["2022-12-22", 0.4308740794345038], ["2022-12-23", 0.2924236935936016], ["2022-12-23", 0.31000000000000005], ["2022-12-23", 0.3993524935230366], ["2022-12-24", 0.2996193249967722], ["2022-12-24", 0.3466657228900... | https://manifold.markets/alangrow/will-the-three-iss-astronauts-assig | A leak on the Soyuz MS-22, which docked to the International Space Station, was documented on December 14th 2022 EST: This market resolves YES if astronauts Francisco Rubio, Sergey Prokopyev, and Dmitry Petelin return to Earth early and alive aboard a Dragon capsule before March 29 2023 00:00 UTC. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-28 | Will the three ISS astronauts assigned to the leaking Soyuz MS-22 module be evacuated via Dragon before March 29 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.40050380402654157], ["2022-12-15", 0.41999999999999993], ["2022-12-15", 0.44994694405465896], ["2022-12-15", 0.49999999999999994], ["2022-12-15", 0.49999999999999994], ["2022-12-15", 0.49999999999999994], ["2022-12-15", 0.5172996561926267], ["2022-12-15", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-15", 0.66216216... | https://manifold.markets/Lifejacker/will-there-be-83500-confirmed-cases | This question resolves to YES if there are >=83,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by year-end, using the cumulative confirmed cases of December 31, 2022, from Our World in Data: | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-30 | Will there be >=83,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-19 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.19918334675995994], ["2022-12-15", 0.19999999999999998], ["2022-12-15", 0.21000000000000002], ["2022-12-15", 0.21000000000000002], ["2022-12-15", 0.21000000000000002], ["2022-12-15", 0.23], ["2022-12-15", 0.24166629496323844], ["2022-12-15", 0.24514796859894805], ["2022-12-15", 0.25000000000000017], [... | https://manifold.markets/8/will-the-final-score-of-argentina-v | After final time, shootouts do not count. Close date updated to 2022-12-08 9:10 pm Close date updated to 2022-12-18 9:10 pm | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will the final score of Argentina vs. France be 1-0 either way? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-12-15", 0.6209973943647678], ["2022-12-15", 0.6927118216629911], ["2022-12-16", 0.7384395013273187], ["2022-12-17", 0.6709152481479643], ["2022-12-17", 0.6893349562076173], ["2022-12-17", 0.69], ["2022-12-17", 0.7], ["2022-12-17", 0.72], ["2022-12-21", 0.7314939740310166], ["... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m100-9d3b7b84f6e5 | I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$100,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets. Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that reso... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-03 | Will anyone profit by at least M$100,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-19 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.22672920150339546], ["2022-12-15", 0.2344860280508313], ["2022-12-15", 0.24394358949341938], ["2022-12-15", 0.2506550403417927], ["2022-12-15", 0.26523224903620507], ["2022-12-15", 0.26683443446497673], ["2022-12-15", 0.27791086445650226], ["2022-12-15", 0.29330934000211056], ["2022-12-15", 0.30992666... | https://manifold.markets/8/will-the-score-of-argentina-vs-fran-d795948eaf61 | After final time, shootouts do not count. Close date updated to 2022-12-18 9:10 pm | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will the score of Argentina vs. France be 2-1 either way? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-03 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-15", 0.5010843680766831], ["2022-12-15", 0.5313434127965968], ["2022-12-15", 0.5399999999999999], ["2022-12-15", 0.5805409105473268], ["2022-12-15", 0.5927231164105633], ["2022-12-15", 0.6029595711375381], ["2022-12-15", 0.6397166139628365], ["2022-12-20", 0.50871591808780... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m150-329fb2d34993 | I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$150,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets. Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that reso... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-03 | Will anyone profit by at least M$150,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-03 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.23760224229093269], ["2022-12-15", 0.2695146137688498], ["2022-12-15", 0.30769230769230776], ["2022-12-15", 0.32137325398963307], ["2022-12-15", 0.36999999999999994], ["2022-12-15", 0.4], ["2022-12-15", 0.4581887335291089], ["2022-12-15", 0.5449211681696335], ["2022-12-15", 0.5678586436100731], ["2022... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m200-2e9246e1e01a | I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$150,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets. Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that reso... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-03 | Will anyone profit by at least M$200,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.8607405118975694], ["2022-12-15", 0.8999999999999999], ["2022-12-15", 0.91], ["2022-12-15", 0.9110320284697507], ["2022-12-15", 0.9618233715018903], ["2022-12-15", 0.9729755109774053], ["2022-12-16", 0.94], ["2022-12-16", 0.94], ["2022-12-16", 0.94], ["2022-12-16", 0.948560237837209], ["2022-12-17", 0... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m200 | I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$20,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets. Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resol... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-25 | Will anyone profit by at least M$20,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-15", 0.8285646386954367], ["2022-12-15", 0.9412686800158729], ["2022-12-15", 0.9462298731766261], ["2022-12-15", 0.96], ["2022-12-15", 0.9824895401685108], ["2022-12-16", 0.9566537101721921], ["2022-12-20", 0.9675820574342368], ["2022-12-20", 0.9861594561535743], ["2022-12... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m300 | I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$30,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets. Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resol... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-25 | Will anyone profit by at least M$30,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.30769230769230776], ["2022-12-15", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-12-15", 0.4180925412675792], ["2022-12-15", 0.4180925412675792], ["2022-12-15", 0.8848354391610895], ["2022-12-15", 0.8951714261900015], ["2022-12-16", 0.8889669180809053], ["2022-12-19", 0.8951581936950442], ["2022-12-19", 0.93], ["2022-1... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m500 | I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$50,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets. Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resol... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-25 | Will anyone profit by at least M$50,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-15", 0.9508840864440078], ["2022-12-15", 0.954871384462688], ["2022-12-15", 0.9548736462093862], ["2022-12-15", 0.9738541165481257], ["2022-12-15", 0.9797933768555989], ["2022-12-15", 0.9836321746323347], ["2022-12-16", 0.9566368238066139], ["2022-12-17", 0.955006507682946... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m150 | I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$15,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets. Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resol... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-25 | Will anyone profit by at least M$15,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-22 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.8151571164510167], ["2022-12-15", 0.8410174880763117], ["2022-12-15", 0.9486916367367881], ["2022-12-15", 0.9692883934623318], ["2022-12-15", 0.9703066637545913], ["2022-12-15", 0.975423937085279], ["2022-12-15", 0.9762629971311836], ["2022-12-15", 0.9768786127167631], ["2022-12-15", 0.977074230519863... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m100 | I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$10,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets. Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resol... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-25 | Will anyone profit by at least M$10,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-06 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.4089091354110023], ["2022-12-15", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-15", 0.47254001110504484], ["2022-12-15", 0.5013391045925003], ["2022-12-15", 0.5163890381515316], ["2022-12-17", 0.3109845033484724], ["2022-12-17", 0.35587093941733783], ["2022-12-18", 0.28694290937443073], ["2022-12-19", 0.27318333228... | https://manifold.markets/humblestumble/will-scoria-be-slain-by-the-end-of-94d4ba805319 | Resolves YES if scoria dies before the end of epsiod 92, NO if she doesn't. Close date updated to 2023-01-03 1:59 am Close date updated to 2023-01-05 1:59 am Close date updated to 2023-01-06 4:59 am | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-06 | Will Scoria be slain by the end of Tombs of Scoria episode 92? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-15", 0.7191011235955055], ["2022-12-15", 0.7191011235955056], ["2022-12-15", 0.7324243425798467], ["2022-12-15", 0.7503196081255512], ["2022-12-15", 0.7595852656756144], ["2022-12-15", 0.7641509433962264], ["2022-12-15", 0.7662633200052065], ["2022-12-15", 0.7990610956229107], ["2022-12-16", 0.75419950561604... | https://manifold.markets/Adam/will-france-score-one-or-more-goals | Resolves Yes if France scores one or more goals in the 2022 World Cup Final. Argentine own-goals count. Penalties (except as part of a penalty shootout) count. Extra Time goals count. Close date updated to 2022-12-18 9:59 am Close date updated to 2022-12-18 9:00 am | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will France score one or more goals in the 2022 World Cup Final? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-31 | 2022-12-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-22", 0.26367576186438546], ["2022-12-22", 0.28999999999999987], ["2022-12-22", 0.40238169701759935], ["2022-12-22", 0.4435544909546198], ["2022-12-22", 0.4877817654707929], ["2022-12-22", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-22", 0.5914541758628356], ["2022-12-22", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-12-23", 0.27075602083... | https://manifold.markets/Nico/will-any-member-of-the-uk-cabinet-r-6430c94da34c | This question resolves YES if any current member of the UK Cabinet (full list here: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-31 | Will any member of the UK Cabinet resign by the end of March? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-22 | ["https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-22", 0.06746421739279904], ["2022-12-22", 0.08000000000000002], ["2022-12-22", 0.17357025463038495], ["2022-12-22", 0.20000000000000007], ["2022-12-22", 0.28089887640449446], ["2022-12-22", 0.337837837837838], ["2022-12-22", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-23", 0.053043284337434674], ["2022-12-23", 0.05412649... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/war-in-ukraine-will-russia-lose-110 | Ukraine's Armed Forces estimate Russia's losses daily, which is published by Kyiv Independent. https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/ past numbers: | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 110,000 troops by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-15 | 2022-12-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-22", 0.08616912872916951], ["2022-12-22", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-24", 0.08131922280609902], ["2022-12-24", 0.13328513059320932], ["2022-12-25", 0.17000000000000004], ["2022-12-25", 0.19037849318161734], ["2022-12-28", 0.20999999999999988], ["2022-12-28", 0.22523819322355182], ["2022-12-31", 0.2400000... | https://manifold.markets/cash/will-sanna-marin-still-be-prime-min | Sanna Marin Will Sanna Marin remain Prime Minister after the conclusion of the "The conclusion" of the election includes any post-election coalition talks. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-16 | Will Sanna Marin still be Prime Minister of Finland at the conclusion of the next Finnish election (April 2023 or earlier)? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-28 | 2022-12-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-22", 0.23584905660377364], ["2022-12-22", 0.343712794200854], ["2022-12-22", 0.3504806803682591], ["2022-12-22", 0.37965826893933685], ["2022-12-22", 0.42465126319171703], ["2022-12-23", 0.41000000000000003], ["2022-12-23", 0.4317945343772891], ["2022-12-25", 0.2679616990917356], ["2022-12-25", 0.3], ["2022-... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-a-universitylevel-student-be-p-f8266e1944a4 | With the publishing of ChatGPT and it's ability to write essays, answer questions, etc. at the very least at the graduate level, it seems likely that people will begin to use it for school work. Will a student be accused and subsequently punished for such an action. This question will resolve positively if there is a p... | Education & Research | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-28 | Will a university-level student be punished for using ChatGPT or another LLM I to write a school paper by Jan 15th 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-05 | 2022-12-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-23", 0.7641509433962264], ["2022-12-23", 0.7979729287802332], ["2022-12-23", 0.8037616263712806], ["2022-12-23", 0.82], ["2022-12-23", 0.85], ["2022-12-23", 0.8529039136330432], ["2022-12-23", 0.856969416830224], ["2022-12-24", 0.8375334354786521], ["2022-12-24", 0.843480977852354], ["2022-12-24", 0.86003918... | https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-a-dark-version-of-an-advanced | I mean something like ChatGPT but with few or no ethical restrictions to the content it can produce. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-06 | Will a 'dark version' of an advanced AI chatbot be widely available by 2024? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-17 | 2022-12-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-23", 0.3805925017049427], ["2022-12-23", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-01-11", 0.3423281434684024], ["2023-01-16", 0.8378654744977256], ["2023-01-16", 0.8600000000000001], ["2023-01-16", 0.89], ["2023-01-16", 0.89], ["2023-01-16", 0.89], ["2023-01-16", 0.8967076499034966], ["2023-01-16", 0.9005835383319424], [... | https://manifold.markets/lisamarsh/will-the-uk-government-issue-a-sect | The U.K. government is considering using Section 35 of the Scotland Act to block a law passed by the Scottish Parliament that makes it easier for people to legally change their gender. This power has never been used before; if the government triggers Section 35 to block the bill or any part of it within the 28-day dead... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-17 | Will the U.K. government issue a Section 35 order to block the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-24 | 2022-12-23 | ["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-23", 0.15803521326995024], ["2022-12-23", 0.16395028638359038], ["2022-12-23", 0.1955438366970694], ["2022-12-23", 0.20223628814330177], ["2022-12-23", 0.2378692931255596], ["2022-12-23", 0.25999999999999995], ["2022-12-23", 0.2613696249314554], ["2022-12-23", 0.2696603450543743], ["2022-12-23", 0.2794906141... | https://manifold.markets/GeneFama/will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16870-a-06dd2cda324b | Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-24 | Will Bitcoin price be above $16870 at Dec 23 10pm ET? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-12 | 2022-12-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-23", 0.4586966805748345], ["2022-12-23", 0.46159527326440175], ["2022-12-23", 0.4819527422916898], ["2022-12-23", 0.48707435797388815], ["2022-12-23", 0.4999999999999999], ["2022-12-23", 0.5251083743027916], ["2022-12-23", 0.5334460796610924], ["2022-12-23", 0.5334460796610924], ["2022-12-26", 0.409999999999... | https://manifold.markets/JesusDeSivar/will-argentinas-inflation-rate-reac | Argentina (Winner of FIFA's World Cup 2022) is " This market resolves to YES if the variation of the Consumer Price Index is of 100% or more from January 2022 until December 2022 according to the official government agency, INDEC - This data is scheduled for Close date updated to 2023-01-13 12:00 pm Close date update... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-12 | Will Argentina's inflation rate reach 100% or more in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-23 | ["https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-23", 0.2933993035870031], ["2022-12-23", 0.30000000000000016], ["2022-12-23", 0.3482794989433765], ["2022-12-23", 0.37094168288196483], ["2022-12-23", 0.3712879549325534], ["2022-12-23", 0.4005290763881113], ["2022-12-23", 0.4385351378621249], ["2022-12-23", 0.45096169628640015], ["2022-12-23", 0.46602417978... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-teslas-marketcap-be-above-400b | https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/ | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Tesla's marketcap be above $400B at the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-28 | 2022-12-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-05-15", 0.8346970292334291], ["2023-05-15", 0.8403707095724666], ["2023-05-15", 0.8422469784934224], ["2023-05-16", 0.7760438939466913], ["2023-05-16", 0.7807380881381125], ["2023-05-16", 0.7807380881381125], ["2023-05-16", 0.7807380881381125], ["2023-05-16", 0.783852025044532], ["2023-05-16", 0.784466867760488... | https://manifold.markets/xyz/will-erdogan-win-the-2023-turkish-p | Background: On June 18, 2023, the Turkish general election will be held which will include the first round of the Turkish presidential election. According to Update This market will resolve as YES if Erdogan is declared the winner of 2023's first presidential election by the Supreme Election Council, and NO otherwise. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Erdogan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-26 | 2022-12-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-23", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-23", 0.8], ["2022-12-23", 0.8204941339652174], ["2022-12-23", 0.876321057662295], ["2022-12-24", 0.8455261203732769], ["2022-12-24", 0.8551078108041724], ["2022-12-25", 0.39493446074032984], ["2022-12-25", 0.39751637472752344], ["2022-12-25", 0.4312229801460244], ["2022-12... | https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-this-markets-probability-be-at-3b5e641106b | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-26 | Will this market's probability be at least 42.0% for at least 42.0% of the time it remains open? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-24", 0.4299999999999999], ["2022-12-24", 0.4299999999999999], ["2022-12-24", 0.4521959571542504], ["2022-12-25", 0.42999999999999994], ["2022-12-27", 0.4178642001187748], ["2022-12-27", 0.43999999999999995], ["2022-12-27", 0.43999999999999995], ["2022-12-27", 0.43999999999999995], ["2022-12-31", 0.3365060557... | https://manifold.markets/538/premier-league-football-will-fulham | Resolves YES if Fulham wins against Southampton on 12/31/2022.
Resolves NO if Southampton wins or the match ends in a draw.
This market is automatically resolved by a bot based on FiveThirtyEight data. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Premier League Football: Will Fulham win against Southampton? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-24", 0.33000000000000007], ["2022-12-24", 0.33000000000000007], ["2022-12-25", 0.2192636470198744], ["2022-12-25", 0.2747058159099576], ["2022-12-25", 0.30000000000000016], ["2022-12-31", 0.027043876891799906], ["2022-12-31", 0.033441475566022436], ["2022-12-31", 0.23532323788494136]] | https://manifold.markets/538/premier-league-football-will-bright | Resolves YES if Brighton and Hove Albion wins against Arsenal on 12/31/2022.
Resolves NO if Arsenal wins or the match ends in a draw.
This market is automatically resolved by a bot based on FiveThirtyEight data. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Premier League Football: Will Brighton and Hove Albion win against Arsenal? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-24", 0.82], ["2022-12-24", 0.82], ["2022-12-26", 0.85], ["2022-12-31", 0.01768808425247714], ["2022-12-31", 0.043949361832076116], ["2022-12-31", 0.05972591427587457], ["2022-12-31", 0.08349122628346252], ["2022-12-31", 0.12043076613197069], ["2022-12-31", 0.1794706982113409], ["2022-12-31", 0.27506437110485... | https://manifold.markets/538/premier-league-football-will-manche-acfbbb1b1e82 | Resolves YES if Manchester City wins against Everton on 12/31/2022.
Resolves NO if Everton wins or the match ends in a draw.
This market is automatically resolved by a bot based on FiveThirtyEight data. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Premier League Football: Will Manchester City win against Everton? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-26 | 2022-12-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-24", 0.19999999999999993], ["2022-12-24", 0.19999999999999993], ["2022-12-26", 0.0017687851786863103], ["2022-12-26", 0.0018545376150399997], ["2022-12-26", 0.010998507103774542], ["2022-12-26", 0.020818915622827335], ["2022-12-26", 0.02843989006912768], ["2022-12-26", 0.04310550747793534], ["2022-12-26", 0.... | https://manifold.markets/538/premier-league-football-will-aston | Resolves YES if Aston Villa wins against Liverpool on 12/26/2022.
Resolves NO if Liverpool wins or the match ends in a draw.
This market is automatically resolved by a bot based on FiveThirtyEight data. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-26 | Premier League Football: Will Aston Villa win against Liverpool? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-26 | 2022-12-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-24", 0.2701743242448744], ["2022-12-24", 0.27999999999999997], ["2022-12-24", 0.27999999999999997], ["2022-12-25", 0.2800000000000001], ["2022-12-25", 0.316597578258096], ["2022-12-25", 0.3653805976518051], ["2022-12-26", 0.052829417865215035], ["2022-12-26", 0.10070028116923006], ["2022-12-26", 0.1578061275... | https://manifold.markets/538/premier-league-football-will-brentf | Resolves YES if Brentford wins against Tottenham Hotspur on 12/26/2022.
Resolves NO if Tottenham Hotspur wins or the match ends in a draw.
This market is automatically resolved by a bot based on FiveThirtyEight data. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-26 | Premier League Football: Will Brentford win against Tottenham Hotspur? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-24", 0.08896797153024912], ["2022-12-24", 0.17123287671232876], ["2022-12-31", 0.6151327243038184], ["2022-12-31", 0.83], ["2022-12-31", 0.8481141346385083], ["2022-12-31", 0.8563378122827376], ["2022-12-31", 0.8599999999999999], ["2022-12-31", 0.8880259446452698], ["2022-12-31", 0.96], ["2022-12-31", 0.9870... | https://manifold.markets/EmilyFuhriman/will-carson-go-swimming-in-the-ocea | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Carson go swimming in the ocean on this Florida trip? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-26 | 2022-12-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-24", 0.4615013680726878], ["2022-12-24", 0.49], ["2022-12-24", 0.49], ["2022-12-25", 0.49], ["2022-12-26", 0.0011668656191778563], ["2022-12-26", 0.04566332178320998], ["2022-12-26", 0.04686166673176394], ["2022-12-26", 0.07000000000000008], ["2022-12-26", 0.08403429320356195], ["2022-12-26", 0.2597811847902... | https://manifold.markets/538/premier-league-football-will-crysta | Resolves YES if Crystal Palace wins against Fulham on 12/26/2022.
Resolves NO if Fulham wins or the match ends in a draw.
This market is automatically resolved by a bot based on FiveThirtyEight data. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-26 | Premier League Football: Will Crystal Palace win against Fulham? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-24 | ["https://g.co/finance/USD-CRC"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-24", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-24", 0.6241361934263364], ["2022-12-24", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-24", 0.7037335484695205], ["2022-12-25", 0.6557319417985986], ["2022-12-26", 0.6081611559319431], ["2022-12-26", 0.63], ["2022-12-27", 0.6531991713592893], ["2022-12-27", 0.6900000000000002], ["2022-12... | https://manifold.markets/AllanLacy/will-the-usdcrc-exchange-rate-be-lo | https://g.co/finance/USD-CRC | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the USD/CRC exchange rate be lower than 580 before the end of this year? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-24", 0.30769230769230776], ["2022-12-24", 0.6884907724044359], ["2022-12-24", 0.8783962795527414], ["2022-12-25", 0.8204770321866164], ["2022-12-25", 0.8599999999999999], ["2022-12-25", 0.8670160187661079], ["2022-12-25", 0.8864586440916287], ["2022-12-25", 0.8984390252048894], ["2022-12-27", 0.89], ["2022-1... | https://manifold.markets/freeatnet/will-the-president-of-russia-vladim | This market resolves to YES if the address is given by Vladimir Putin from the Kremlin and broadcast a few minutes before midnight in each of the time zones. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the President of Russia Vladimir Putin deliver a traditional New Years' address on Dec 31, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-26 | 2022-12-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-24", 0.49425707771650595], ["2022-12-24", 0.5490934150319009], ["2022-12-24", 0.5544734190999808], ["2022-12-24", 0.5700000000000001], ["2022-12-24", 0.5700000000000001], ["2022-12-24", 0.5700000000000001], ["2022-12-24", 0.5723439341569854], ["2022-12-24", 0.5880800031907549], ["2022-12-24", 0.5899999999999... | https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-q4-us-gdp-growth-be-above-3 | In 2022 according to the official real GDP estimate released on a January 26, 2023 by BEA | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-26 | Will Q4 US GDP growth be above 3%? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-28 | 2022-12-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-24", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-24", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-24", 0.7191011235955055], ["2022-12-24", 0.877614859309048], ["2022-12-24", 0.8846276419861957], ["2022-12-24", 0.8899322252781743], ["2022-12-24", 0.8970061246835033], ["2022-12-24", 0.9], ["2022-12-25", 0.8902485479153225], ["2022-12-2... | https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-nishad-singh-be-charged-for-hi | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-28 | Will Nishad Singh be charged for his role in the FTX scandal by 2030? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-01 | 2022-12-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-24", 0.30527245257039365], ["2022-12-24", 0.3130810768674978], ["2022-12-24", 0.31508781296925853], ["2022-12-24", 0.3211766858501255], ["2022-12-24", 0.33], ["2022-12-24", 0.33], ["2022-12-24", 0.33], ["2022-12-24", 0.34355540050976774], ["2022-12-24", 0.34355540050976835], ["2022-12-24", 0.3516623869314860... | https://manifold.markets/TonyJackson/will-the-average-us-price-of-regula | As measured by | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Will the average US price of regular gas exceed $4/gallon by April 1st 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-12-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-24", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-24", 0.7176357071196446], ["2022-12-24", 0.7438090307039797], ["2022-12-24", 0.8231250698713565], ["2022-12-25", 0.89], ["2022-12-25", 0.9114268255650249], ["2022-12-25", 0.9242728313410985], ["2022-12-25", 0.9439778566136533], ["2022-12-25", 0.9564668693258614]] | https://manifold.markets/Matthew/will-flight-as-835-fly-on-december | The flight was cancelled today (December 23rd) due to ice. Will it fly tomorrow? | Other | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-25 | Will flight AS 835 fly on December 24th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-14 | 2022-12-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-25", 0.78], ["2022-12-25", 0.8], ["2022-12-25", 0.8056827431356186], ["2022-12-25", 0.8486861339998384], ["2022-12-26", 0.87], ["2022-12-26", 0.8869828874024189], ["2023-01-01", 0.8972326278656837], ["2023-01-19", 0.9047612409333577], ["2023-02-01", 0.8851225847911722], ["2023-02-18", 0.8720340358762884], ["... | https://manifold.markets/TenShino/will-the-winner-of-eurovision-2023 | While most countries in Eurovision come from Europe, several countries geographically outside Europe participate in the contest, a notable example being Australia. This market resolves NO if any of the listed countries (4 out of 37) win: -Armenia -Australia -Azerbaijan -Israel | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-14 | Will the winner of Eurovision 2023 come from Europe? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-30 | 2022-12-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-25", 0.23584905660377373], ["2022-12-25", 0.3461067707556822], ["2022-12-25", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-25", 0.4491316694695104], ["2022-12-26", 0.36063735656795576], ["2022-12-26", 0.4018854865807875], ["2022-12-29", 0.17000000000000004], ["2022-12-29", 0.2199999999999999], ["2022-12-29", 0.24913511889... | https://manifold.markets/MattReardon/will-chelsea-qualify-for-the-202324 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-02 | Will Chelsea Qualify for the 2023-24 Champions League? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-16 | 2022-12-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-25", 0.37174721189591103], ["2022-12-25", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-26", 0.3239664155601496], ["2022-12-29", 0.3125146799718171], ["2022-12-29", 0.31980770330620645], ["2022-12-29", 0.3277545385133247], ["2022-12-29", 0.33999999999999997], ["2022-12-29", 0.348176670167497], ["2022-12-29", 0.35], ["2022-... | https://manifold.markets/MattReardon/will-tottenham-hotspur-qualify-for | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-16 | Will Tottenham Hotspur Qualify for the 2023-24 Champions League? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-22 | 2022-12-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-25", 0.2616498547382173], ["2022-12-25", 0.30769230769230776], ["2022-12-25", 0.3122559934334889], ["2022-12-25", 0.3531621516554098], ["2022-12-25", 0.3917592561839775], ["2022-12-26", 0.3624355817422647], ["2022-12-30", 0.26571785886317484], ["2022-12-30", 0.3], ["2023-01-01", 0.284310947377453], ["2023-01... | https://manifold.markets/GavinMcCarthyBui/will-putin-publicly-visit-somewhere | Yes if serveral reporters report on his trip, proving he was there (it would be big news if it did happen). No if it doesn't happen by June 2023. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-19 | Will Putin publicly visit somewhere in Ukraine by June 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-13 | 2022-12-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-25", 0.4954752057655296], ["2022-12-25", 0.5475113122171945], ["2022-12-29", 0.5034479986817183], ["2022-12-29", 0.5624910728364996], ["2023-01-08", 0.5000030381174531], ["2023-01-08", 0.52], ["2023-01-08", 0.52], ["2023-01-08", 0.52], ["2023-01-08", 0.54], ["2023-01-08", 0.5465656581551187], ["2023-01-19", ... | https://manifold.markets/MattReardon/will-borussia-dortmund-qualify-for | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-13 | Will Borussia Dortmund Qualify for the 2023-24 Champions League? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-25 | 2022-12-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-25", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-25", 0.6033494931687968], ["2022-12-26", 0.5001260782861032], ["2022-12-26", 0.5177485832512623], ["2022-12-26", 0.5299999999999999], ["2022-12-26", 0.53], ["2022-12-26", 0.7012282041218214], ["2022-12-26", 0.7316352465741927], ["2022-12-29", 0.45020571445162855], ["2022-1... | https://manifold.markets/MattReardon/will-manchester-united-qualify-for | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-26 | Will Manchester United Qualify for the 2023-24 Champions League? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-25 | ["https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-25", 0.1925285988617269], ["2022-12-25", 0.2800000000000001], ["2022-12-25", 0.28731378801075463], ["2022-12-25", 0.34377791300267274], ["2022-12-25", 0.4066842146587571], ["2022-12-25", 0.462171955639078], ["2022-12-25", 0.4621719556390781], ["2022-12-25", 0.4621719556390781], ["2022-12-25", 0.4621719556390... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/war-in-ukraine-will-russia-lose-106 | Ukraine's Armed Forces estimate Russia's losses daily, which is published by Kyiv Independent. https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/ past numbers: related: | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 106,000 troops by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-26 | 2022-12-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-05", 0.4299999999999999], ["2023-03-05", 0.44], ["2023-03-05", 0.44], ["2023-03-05", 0.44], ["2023-03-05", 0.4707341900265087], ["2023-03-05", 0.47746507553356354], ["2023-03-05", 0.5023339341431343], ["2023-03-05", 0.51], ["2023-03-05", 0.51], ["2023-03-05", 0.51], ["2023-03-06", 0.42761607256868955], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/MattReardon/will-liverpool-fc-qualify-for-the-2 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-26 | Will Liverpool FC Qualify for the 2023-24 Champions League? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-13 | 2022-12-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-25", 0.21268870139724372], ["2022-12-25", 0.21313761294550107], ["2022-12-25", 0.2213278903332052], ["2022-12-25", 0.22434156257668453], ["2022-12-25", 0.22839445881488185], ["2022-12-25", 0.22911387750995774], ["2022-12-25", 0.23402480214717802], ["2022-12-25", 0.23732173114368654], ["2022-12-25", 0.2379814... | https://manifold.markets/xyz/will-ukraine-win-eurovision-2023 | Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, UK during May 9 - May 13, 2023. Resolves NO if Ukraine does not participate, N/A if the contest does not occur. Mar 27, 10:57am: | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-13 | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2023? 🇺🇦 | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-26 | 2022-12-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-25", 0.11987916199140856], ["2022-12-25", 0.2099999999999999], ["2022-12-25", 0.2099999999999999], ["2022-12-25", 0.2099999999999999], ["2022-12-25", 0.22135079646577194], ["2022-12-25", 0.23223758640905273], ["2022-12-25", 0.27763451582218074], ["2022-12-25", 0.32755316966320874], ["2022-12-25", 0.330681207... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-a-majority-of-christmas-nfl-ga | Resolves YES if 2/3 NFL games on Christmas have the home team win Bold = Hometeam (Packers vs Close date updated to 2022-12-25 9:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-12-25 10:45 pm | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-26 | Will a majority of Christmas NFL games be a home game win? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-12-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-25", 0.005821777849087826], ["2022-12-25", 0.09], ["2022-12-25", 0.47050705271801785], ["2022-12-25", 0.4799999999999998], ["2022-12-25", 0.4800000000000001], ["2022-12-25", 0.4821747072697945], ["2022-12-25", 0.48999999999999994], ["2022-12-25", 0.5191103620530099], ["2022-12-25", 0.5661330293458918], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-the-raiders-beat-the-steelers | Resolves YES if the Raiders win tonight. Resolves NO in a draw. Close date updated to 2022-12-25 9:30 pm | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-25 | Will the Raiders beat the Steelers? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-01 | 2022-12-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-26", 0.34550749297167893], ["2022-12-26", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-26", 0.4225612595385571], ["2022-12-26", 0.43259664030941575], ["2022-12-26", 0.43259664030941575], ["2022-12-26", 0.43259664030941575], ["2022-12-26", 0.4403311656011774], ["2022-12-26", 0.4403311656011774], ["2022-12-26", 0.4403311656... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-joe-biden-announce-his-bid-for | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Will Joe Biden announce his bid for reelection before April 1, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-10 | 2022-12-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-26", 0.5724241915343515], ["2022-12-26", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-26", 0.6167703200208621], ["2022-12-26", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-27", 0.65], ["2022-12-27", 0.6635568165096084], ["2022-12-29", 0.6743871452773744], ["2023-01-04", 0.48452578444092165], ["2023-01-04", 0.49821971834194756], ["2023-... | https://manifold.markets/BrianLi/will-the-golden-state-warriors-ente | At the time of this market, the Warriors is the 11th team in the west with a 15-18 record. The prediction is correct if and only if the warriors finish the season between the 7-10 seed in the west. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-10 | Will the Golden State Warriors enter the Play-In Tournament this season? | manifold | 0 |
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