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2020-11-20 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-05", 0.75], ["2020-06-05", 0.625], ["2020-06-05", 0.566], ["2020-06-05", 0.52], ["2020-06-05", 0.525], ["2020-06-05", 0.517], ["2020-06-05", 0.518], ["2020-06-05", 0.516], ["2020-06-05", 0.518], ["2020-06-05", 0.518], ["2020-06-06", 0.533], ["2020-06-06", 0.533], ["2020-06-06", 0.535], ["2020-06-06", 0.56], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4559/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | The Booker Prize is an annual award for the best original novel written in the English Language and published in the United Kingdom. A longlist of 13 potential winners is published in July, while a shortlist of 6 is published in September.
This question asks: Will the winner of the 2020 Booker Prize be female?
This que... | true | 2020-09-21 | Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-19 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-05", 0.505], ["2020-06-05", 0.639], ["2020-06-05", 0.639], ["2020-06-05", 0.751], ["2020-06-06", 0.759], ["2020-06-07", 0.759], ["2020-06-07", 0.762], ["2020-06-08", 0.764], ["2020-06-08", 0.765], ["2020-06-09", 0.765], ["2020-06-10", 0.76], ["2020-06-11", 0.766], ["2020-06-11", 0.758], ["2020-06-11", 0.761]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4561/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | JK Rowling is currently releasing her new book, “The Ickabog”, in daily installments on her website. She plans to release it as a physical book in November. The Harry Potter books, also by Rowling, are one of the best-selling fiction series of all time. Harry Potter and The Cursed Child, the most recent installment, so... | true | 2020-11-01 | Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-25 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-05", 0.1], ["2020-06-05", 0.233], ["2020-06-05", 0.188], ["2020-06-05", 0.17], ["2020-06-05", 0.183], ["2020-06-05", 0.213], ["2020-06-05", 0.224], ["2020-06-07", 0.224], ["2020-06-07", 0.234], ["2020-06-07", 0.239], ["2020-06-07", 0.234], ["2020-06-08", 0.258], ["2020-06-08", 0.258], ["2020-06-08", 0.261], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4562/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | In the United Kingdom, the singles which are top of the UK singles chart in the week in which Christmas day falls are known as “Christmas number ones”. Reality television winners, particularly of the show “The X-Factor”, have frequently claimed the number one spot. From the years 2005-2008 inclusive, every artist with ... | true | 2020-12-18 | Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-25 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-05", 0.15], ["2020-06-05", 0.42], ["2020-06-05", 0.42], ["2020-06-05", 0.443], ["2020-06-05", 0.418], ["2020-06-06", 0.435], ["2020-06-06", 0.455], ["2020-06-07", 0.482], ["2020-06-07", 0.484], ["2020-06-07", 0.447], ["2020-06-07", 0.414], ["2020-06-08", 0.42], ["2020-06-08", 0.408], ["2020-06-08", 0.404], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4563/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | In the United Kingdom, the singles which are top of the UK singles chart in the week in which Christmas day falls are known as “Christmas number ones”. Reality television winners, particularly of the show “The X-Factor”, have frequently claimed the number one spot. From the years 2005-2008 inclusive, every artist with ... | true | 2020-12-18 | Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-22 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-05", 0.55], ["2020-06-05", 0.481], ["2020-06-05", 0.459], ["2020-06-06", 0.455], ["2020-06-07", 0.549], ["2020-06-07", 0.548], ["2020-06-08", 0.554], ["2020-06-08", 0.565], ["2020-06-10", 0.557], ["2020-06-11", 0.552], ["2020-06-11", 0.511], ["2020-06-12", 0.514], ["2020-06-12", 0.507], ["2020-06-13", 0.502]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4564/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | TikTok is a social media platform designed around the sharing of short video clips, often set to music. Having only launched worldwide in August 2018, it has already been downloaded a billion times by February 2019, and was the most downloaded app in the App store in both 2018 and 2019. The user who, at the time of wri... | true | 2020-08-31 | Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-03 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-05", 0.48], ["2020-06-05", 0.64], ["2020-06-05", 0.681], ["2020-06-05", 0.681], ["2020-06-05", 0.685], ["2020-06-05", 0.667], ["2020-06-05", 0.662], ["2020-06-06", 0.674], ["2020-06-06", 0.679], ["2020-06-06", 0.679], ["2020-06-06", 0.693], ["2020-06-06", 0.696], ["2020-06-07", 0.696], ["2020-06-07", 0.703],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4565/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | The Bechdel test, made famous by the cartoonist Alison Bechdel in her comic strip “Dykes to Watch Out For”, but credited by her to her friend Liz Wallace, is a three-part test of women’s representation in fiction. To “pass” the test, a film must:
Contain two named female characters.
Who have a conversation with each ot... | true | 2020-08-31 | Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-09-30 | 2020-06-05 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-15", 0.01], ["2020-06-15", 0.33], ["2020-06-15", 0.33], ["2020-06-16", 0.292], ["2020-06-16", 0.215], ["2020-06-17", 0.253], ["2020-06-17", 0.26], ["2020-06-17", 0.277], ["2020-06-18", 0.277], ["2020-06-18", 0.263], ["2020-06-18", 0.264], ["2020-06-18", 0.264], ["2020-06-18", 0.293], ["2020-06-29", 0.297], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4607/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | California AB 3155 is a bill authored by Robert Rivas and Sharon Quirk-Silva to extend the streamlined approval process of SB 35 to housing developments of 10 units or fewer (provided it is not part of a development project of more than 10 units and satisfies local affordable housing regulations).
On May 21st, AB 3155 ... | true | 2020-08-14 | Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-08 | 2020-06-05 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-12", 0.77], ["2020-06-13", 0.829], ["2020-06-15", 0.798], ["2020-06-16", 0.822], ["2020-06-17", 0.832], ["2020-06-18", 0.84], ["2020-06-19", 0.853], ["2020-06-20", 0.853], ["2020-06-21", 0.85], ["2020-06-23", 0.853], ["2020-06-24", 0.853], ["2020-06-25", 0.854], ["2020-06-26", 0.854], ["2020-06-27", 0.854], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4609/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | It seems like there are growing concerns in the United States that, following a loss of the 2020 election, President Donald J. Trump will refuse to concede defeat and exit the office.
If President Trump loses the 2020 Presidential Election, will he publicly announce between 2020-11-03 and 2021-01-20 (inclusive) that he... | true | 2020-11-03 | If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-14 | 2020-06-07 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-09", 0.7], ["2020-06-11", 0.641], ["2020-06-12", 0.612], ["2020-06-13", 0.639], ["2020-06-14", 0.634], ["2020-06-15", 0.649], ["2020-06-16", 0.658], ["2020-06-17", 0.647], ["2020-06-19", 0.647], ["2020-06-20", 0.643], ["2020-06-23", 0.643], ["2020-06-25", 0.647], ["2020-06-27", 0.647], ["2020-07-08", 0.647],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4617/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Ice cream melts faster than it used to.
In 2016, the average global temperature, according to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) data analysis, was the warmest on record, besting the previous mark which was set in 2015.
There is unambiguous evidence that climate change, driven by increasing atmospheri... | true | 2020-11-30 | Will 2020 be the warmest year on record? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-06-16 | 2020-06-07 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-13", 0.8], ["2020-06-13", 0.75], ["2020-06-13", 0.75], ["2020-06-13", 0.627], ["2020-06-13", 0.394], ["2020-06-13", 0.394], ["2020-06-13", 0.333], ["2020-06-13", 0.289], ["2020-06-13", 0.294], ["2020-06-13", 0.278], ["2020-06-13", 0.278], ["2020-06-13", 0.3], ["2020-06-13", 0.295], ["2020-06-13", 0.292], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4619/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and diplomatic efforts to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued ... | true | 2020-12-02 | Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-04 | 2020-06-08 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-17", 0.625], ["2020-06-17", 0.483], ["2020-06-18", 0.483], ["2020-06-18", 0.46], ["2020-06-18", 0.46], ["2020-06-18", 0.47], ["2020-06-18", 0.44], ["2020-06-18", 0.452], ["2020-06-18", 0.452], ["2020-06-18", 0.452], ["2020-06-18", 0.473], ["2020-06-18", 0.483], ["2020-06-26", 0.452], ["2020-06-26", 0.452], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4627/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | 1970 saw several instances of US National Guard and law enforcement officers shooting unarmed protesters, such as the Kent State Shootings and the Jackson State Killings.
In 2020, will we see a similar situation where law enforcement use live ammunition to intentionally shoot unarmed protesters?
For the purposes of thi... | true | 2020-08-01 | Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-06-13 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-18", 0.505], ["2020-06-20", 0.451], ["2020-06-22", 0.473], ["2020-06-23", 0.486], ["2020-06-25", 0.507], ["2020-06-30", 0.503], ["2020-07-02", 0.503], ["2020-07-04", 0.508], ["2020-07-05", 0.51], ["2020-07-09", 0.513], ["2020-07-11", 0.513], ["2020-07-14", 0.512], ["2020-07-15", 0.512], ["2020-07-20", 0.516]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4637/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | S&P 500 Index (Ticker SPX) is large-cap U.S. equities price index that covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization. It covers 500 large public companies listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.
The S&P 500 Index closed at 3,230.78 in 2019.
Will the S&P 500 closer higher or lower in 2020?
Resolves positively in the... | true | 2020-12-31 | Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-09 | 2020-06-15 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-19", 0.01], ["2020-06-19", 0.143], ["2020-06-20", 0.132], ["2020-06-20", 0.136], ["2020-06-20", 0.14], ["2020-06-21", 0.145], ["2020-06-21", 0.145], ["2020-06-21", 0.164], ["2020-06-21", 0.155], ["2020-06-22", 0.155], ["2020-06-22", 0.157], ["2020-06-22", 0.157], ["2020-06-22", 0.156], ["2020-06-23", 0.147],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4650/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In order to pass one's political agenda in the US political system, it is very helpful for a party to control both houses of Congress and the Presidency.
This question asks: Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?
This question resolves positively if the US GOP has (a) at leas... | true | 2020-09-30 | Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2020-06-17 | ["https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.11330"] | binary | [["2020-06-20", 0.3], ["2020-06-25", 0.342], ["2020-07-02", 0.342], ["2020-07-02", 0.341], ["2020-07-08", 0.326], ["2020-07-17", 0.325], ["2020-07-17", 0.322], ["2020-08-09", 0.322], ["2020-08-26", 0.322], ["2020-10-10", 0.322], ["2020-10-24", 0.322], ["2020-11-17", 0.314], ["2020-12-15", 0.314], ["2020-12-22", 0.315],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4670/ | A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter] pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS] and axions. An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T] in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments]; this dark matter... | Science & Tech | This question will resolve as Yes if a paper or preprint is published before January 1, 2023 which includes results by XENON1T (likely in combination with additional results from XENONnT or elsewhere) claiming
or better evidence for either solar axions or a large neutrino magnetic moment. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-06-19 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-23", 0.1], ["2020-06-23", 0.217], ["2020-06-24", 0.165], ["2020-06-24", 0.225], ["2020-06-24", 0.225], ["2020-06-24", 0.196], ["2020-06-24", 0.196], ["2020-06-25", 0.192], ["2020-06-25", 0.192], ["2020-06-25", 0.213], ["2020-06-26", 0.215], ["2020-06-27", 0.202], ["2020-06-28", 0.202], ["2020-06-28", 0.216],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4682/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and diplomatic efforts to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued ... | true | 2020-11-01 | Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-02 | 2020-06-19 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-23", 0.67], ["2020-06-24", 0.352], ["2020-06-24", 0.368], ["2020-06-25", 0.368], ["2020-06-25", 0.379], ["2020-06-26", 0.379], ["2020-06-27", 0.361], ["2020-06-27", 0.382], ["2020-06-28", 0.367], ["2020-06-29", 0.384], ["2020-06-29", 0.382], ["2020-06-30", 0.382], ["2020-06-30", 0.38], ["2020-07-04", 0.389],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4683/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and diplomatic efforts to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued ... | true | 2020-10-31 | Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-09 | 2020-06-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-29", 0.33], ["2020-06-30", 0.33], ["2020-06-30", 0.403], ["2020-06-30", 0.403], ["2020-06-30", 0.35], ["2020-06-30", 0.358], ["2020-06-30", 0.394], ["2020-06-30", 0.386], ["2020-06-30", 0.41], ["2020-06-30", 0.433], ["2020-06-30", 0.415], ["2020-06-30", 0.415], ["2020-07-01", 0.405], ["2020-07-01", 0.4], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4691/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Approximately 6,200 persons attended Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally yesterday, (June 20). Pictures in the news shows people crowded together, most not wearing masks. Health officials have cautioned against attending large meetings such as this out of concerns for spreading Coronavirus. Many people believe it is foolish.
... | true | 2020-07-04 | [Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-20 | 2020-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-27", 0.5], ["2020-06-27", 0.6], ["2020-06-27", 0.633], ["2020-06-27", 0.615], ["2020-06-27", 0.615], ["2020-06-27", 0.587], ["2020-06-27", 0.587], ["2020-06-27", 0.589], ["2020-06-27", 0.589], ["2020-06-27", 0.612], ["2020-06-27", 0.625], ["2020-06-27", 0.629], ["2020-06-27", 0.632], ["2020-06-27", 0.66], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4703/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Trump's rally on June 23 at the Dream City Church filled the church to its capacity of 3,000 people. News reports showed most not wearing masks which were required, (but not enforced), by a order issued by Phoenix's Democratic mayor.
Arizona is experiencing a spike in Coronavirus infections: some 12,897 new cases over ... | true | 2020-07-10 | Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-07-11 | 2020-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-29", 0.25], ["2020-06-30", 0.29], ["2020-06-30", 0.323], ["2020-06-30", 0.353], ["2020-06-30", 0.342], ["2020-07-01", 0.342], ["2020-07-01", 0.335], ["2020-07-01", 0.335], ["2020-07-01", 0.31], ["2020-07-01", 0.297], ["2020-07-01", 0.297], ["2020-07-01", 0.297], ["2020-07-01", 0.294], ["2020-07-02", 0.337], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4723/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Singapore’s political system has been called many things, from “representative democracy” (which it technically is), to “flawed democracy” (by the Economist Intelligence Unit), or “guided democracy”, or even a “one-party state”. Adam Garfinkle writes,
Singapore is a “managed” democracy, and let’s be frank about what th... | true | 2020-07-08 | [short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-08-07 | 2020-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-30", 0.425], ["2020-06-30", 0.425], ["2020-06-30", 0.5], ["2020-06-30", 0.546], ["2020-07-01", 0.531], ["2020-07-01", 0.585], ["2020-07-01", 0.576], ["2020-07-01", 0.582], ["2020-07-01", 0.584], ["2020-07-01", 0.58], ["2020-07-01", 0.581], ["2020-07-02", 0.583], ["2020-07-02", 0.583], ["2020-07-02", 0.576], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4733/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | American owned social media networks are increasingly censoring their networks for political speech. Today Youtube and Reddit combined forces to target a number of persons and reddit communities, including the pro-Donald Trump subreddit r/The_Donald and Stefan Molyneux's Youtube channel. Stefan Molyneux, however, is st... | true | 2020-11-30 | Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-01 | 2020-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-03", 0.115], ["2020-07-03", 0.159], ["2020-07-04", 0.15], ["2020-07-04", 0.148], ["2020-07-04", 0.148], ["2020-07-04", 0.12], ["2020-07-05", 0.121], ["2020-07-05", 0.126], ["2020-07-05", 0.125], ["2020-07-05", 0.122], ["2020-07-06", 0.12], ["2020-07-06", 0.116], ["2020-07-06", 0.116], ["2020-07-07", 0.128], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4734/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | TikTok is a Chinese video-sharing social networking service owned by ByteDance, a Beijing-based internet technology company founded in 2012. TikTok has become tremendously popular and has over 1.5 billion downloads and has been the most downloaded app of all time in 2020.
However, TikTok has recently been linked to sig... | true | 2020-07-31 | Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-02-13 | 2020-07-01 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-01", 0.64], ["2020-07-02", 0.67], ["2020-07-03", 0.711], ["2020-07-05", 0.714], ["2020-07-07", 0.714], ["2020-07-08", 0.719], ["2020-07-09", 0.724], ["2020-07-10", 0.717], ["2020-07-11", 0.722], ["2020-07-13", 0.723], ["2020-07-15", 0.725], ["2020-07-16", 0.724], ["2020-07-18", 0.725], ["2020-07-20", 0.725],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4736/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Will the New York Times end up publishing any articles mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander between 2020-07-01 and 2021-07-01?
We already have a Metaculus prediction about if/when such an article is published it will include his full name.
However, that question very much depends on this one, whether they wil... | true | 2021-03-01 | Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-05-01 | 2020-07-01 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-09", 0.67], ["2020-07-11", 0.604], ["2020-07-13", 0.613], ["2020-07-15", 0.61], ["2020-07-17", 0.628], ["2020-07-19", 0.63], ["2020-07-21", 0.63], ["2020-07-23", 0.624], ["2020-07-26", 0.628], ["2020-07-28", 0.628], ["2020-07-31", 0.627], ["2020-08-01", 0.626], ["2020-08-04", 0.628], ["2020-08-05", 0.628], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4739/ | Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor ordered all non-essential businesses to close. On June 4, the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace casinos re-opened.
There are currently rumors that the casinos will be shut down again due to a rise in c... | Healthcare & Biology | The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source | true | 2021-04-01 | Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-07-01 | 2020-07-01 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-06", 0.21], ["2020-07-06", 0.21], ["2020-07-07", 0.113], ["2020-07-07", 0.113], ["2020-07-07", 0.128], ["2020-07-08", 0.128], ["2020-07-08", 0.134], ["2020-07-08", 0.136], ["2020-07-09", 0.138], ["2020-07-09", 0.144], ["2020-07-09", 0.144], ["2020-07-10", 0.138], ["2020-07-11", 0.138], ["2020-07-12", 0.137],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4741/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of Planet Nine, a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-... | true | 2021-01-02 | Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-01-03 | 2020-07-02 | [] | binary | [["2021-06-20", 0.55], ["2021-06-20", 0.475], ["2021-06-20", 0.473], ["2021-06-21", 0.473], ["2021-06-22", 0.455], ["2021-06-23", 0.438], ["2021-06-25", 0.416], ["2021-06-25", 0.393], ["2021-06-25", 0.374], ["2021-06-29", 0.359], ["2021-07-06", 0.347], ["2021-07-06", 0.347], ["2021-07-06", 0.335], ["2021-07-07", 0.335]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4745/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Long-read sequencing via Oxford Nanopore sequencers is becoming more popular and widespread in labs throughout the world.
With this sequencing method, strands of DNA are pushed through a pore in a membrane and the nucleotide-specific current flow is measured and translated to bases. The longest published read to date m... | true | 2021-09-30 | Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-01 | 2020-07-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-04", 0.675], ["2020-07-05", 0.806], ["2020-07-07", 0.805], ["2020-07-09", 0.812], ["2020-07-11", 0.812], ["2020-07-12", 0.81], ["2020-07-13", 0.811], ["2020-07-14", 0.813], ["2020-07-15", 0.813], ["2020-07-17", 0.813], ["2020-07-18", 0.814], ["2020-07-20", 0.814], ["2020-07-22", 0.813], ["2020-07-23", 0.812]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4749/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Ghislaine Maxwell, born 25 December 1961, is a British socialite. The youngest child of disgraced publishing tycoon Robert Maxwell, she moved to the United States after her father's death in 1991 and became a close associate of the financier and subsequently convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Maxwell has faced per... | true | 2020-12-01 | Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-07-01 | 2020-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-12", 0.01], ["2020-07-14", 0.051], ["2020-07-16", 0.048], ["2020-07-19", 0.047], ["2020-07-22", 0.047], ["2020-07-25", 0.059], ["2020-07-27", 0.058], ["2020-07-30", 0.057], ["2020-08-01", 0.056], ["2020-08-04", 0.056], ["2020-08-06", 0.056], ["2020-08-08", 0.056], ["2020-08-11", 0.057], ["2020-08-13", 0.057]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4764/ | Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this list of civil wars for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current COVID-19 pandemic, social protests, effects of social media platform manipulation, and the upcoming presidential election... | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE | true | 2021-04-11 | Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-14 | 2020-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-09", 0.6], ["2020-07-09", 0.6], ["2020-07-09", 0.549], ["2020-07-10", 0.526], ["2020-07-10", 0.507], ["2020-07-11", 0.494], ["2020-07-11", 0.489], ["2020-07-11", 0.448], ["2020-07-12", 0.439], ["2020-07-12", 0.439], ["2020-07-12", 0.446], ["2020-07-14", 0.443], ["2020-07-15", 0.446], ["2020-07-15", 0.444], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4766/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | New York State was one of the hardest hit states during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it now has one of the lowest growth rates of COVID-19 in the US.
The current 14 day moving average of daily cases in New York State (as of July 5th, 2020) is ~670. However, many other states in the US have seen a recent resurgence o... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-18 | 2020-07-06 | ["https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/doc\u2026", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4761/if-h\u2026"] | binary | [["2020-07-10", 0.335], ["2020-07-11", 0.14], ["2020-07-11", 0.152], ["2020-07-11", 0.246], ["2020-07-12", 0.246], ["2020-07-12", 0.242], ["2020-07-13", 0.243], ["2020-07-13", 0.256], ["2020-07-14", 0.245], ["2020-07-14", 0.233], ["2020-07-15", 0.179], ["2020-07-15", 0.135], ["2020-07-16", 0.13], ["2020-07-16", 0.134],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4769/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Kanye Omari West, born June 8, 1977, is an American rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, composer, entrepreneur and fashion designer. West reportedly has a net worth in excess of $1 billion.
In September 2015, West announced that he intended to run for President of the United States in 2020. However, after the ... | true | 2020-10-31 | In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-24 | 2020-07-07 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-12", 0.495], ["2020-07-13", 0.508], ["2020-07-15", 0.494], ["2020-07-16", 0.492], ["2020-07-18", 0.5], ["2020-07-19", 0.5], ["2020-07-21", 0.496], ["2020-07-22", 0.505], ["2020-07-23", 0.509], ["2020-07-25", 0.518], ["2020-07-26", 0.529], ["2020-07-27", 0.527], ["2020-07-28", 0.522], ["2020-07-29", 0.527], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4771/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | After the UK formally left the EU on 31 January 2020, an 11-month transition period started, which is due to end on 31 December 2020.
With the end of June came the passing of the deadline to extend this transition period beyond the end of 2020, meaning that without a change in the law, the transition period will end on... | true | 2020-12-01 | Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-07-01 | 2020-07-08 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-13", 0.725], ["2020-08-14", 0.757], ["2020-08-15", 0.757], ["2020-08-17", 0.759], ["2020-08-18", 0.759], ["2020-08-21", 0.713], ["2020-08-23", 0.731], ["2020-08-29", 0.726], ["2020-08-31", 0.733], ["2020-09-01", 0.731], ["2020-09-02", 0.731], ["2020-09-04", 0.782], ["2020-09-09", 0.782], ["2020-09-10", 0.783... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4774/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.
Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent 'leadership spills'. In the last 13 years, there have been four succ... | true | 2021-05-31 | Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-03 | 2020-07-08 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-19", 0.7], ["2020-07-20", 0.568], ["2020-07-20", 0.568], ["2020-07-21", 0.574], ["2020-07-21", 0.603], ["2020-07-24", 0.603], ["2020-07-27", 0.584], ["2020-07-27", 0.574], ["2020-07-30", 0.583], ["2020-07-31", 0.583], ["2020-08-01", 0.579], ["2020-08-01", 0.586], ["2020-08-03", 0.578], ["2020-08-03", 0.592],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4775/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Parallel question about Stefan Molyneux.
American owned social media networks are increasingly censoring their networks for political speech. Recently Youtube and Reddit combined forces to target a number of persons and reddit communities, including the pro-Donald Trump subreddit r/The_Donald and Stefan Molyneux' Youtu... | true | 2021-01-31 | Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-02 | 2020-07-08 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-18", 0.4], ["2020-07-18", 0.35], ["2020-07-19", 0.382], ["2020-07-20", 0.376], ["2020-07-21", 0.376], ["2020-07-22", 0.38], ["2020-07-23", 0.363], ["2020-07-24", 0.361], ["2020-07-24", 0.318], ["2020-07-24", 0.308], ["2020-07-25", 0.308], ["2020-07-26", 0.282], ["2020-07-27", 0.277], ["2020-07-28", 0.277], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4776/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Parallel question about Stefan Molyneux.
American owned social media networks are increasingly censoring their networks for political speech. Recently Youtube and Reddit combined forces to target a number of persons and reddit communities, including the pro-Donald Trump subreddit r/The_Donald and Stefan Molyneux' Youtu... | true | 2021-01-31 | Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-02-13 | 2020-07-09 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-10", 0.47], ["2020-07-11", 0.522], ["2020-07-12", 0.462], ["2020-07-13", 0.441], ["2020-07-14", 0.44], ["2020-07-16", 0.442], ["2020-07-17", 0.44], ["2020-07-19", 0.443], ["2020-07-20", 0.448], ["2020-07-21", 0.443], ["2020-07-22", 0.415], ["2020-07-24", 0.389], ["2020-07-26", 0.388], ["2020-07-27", 0.38], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4783/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | On June 22nd, Scott Alexander took down the blog Slate Star Codex due to an in-progress article by a technology reporter from the New York Times, replacing it with a post explaining his rationale. According to Alexander, the journalist was going to publish Scott's real name in association with his blog in this article,... | true | 2021-03-01 | If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-03 | 2020-07-09 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-12", 0.63], ["2020-07-13", 0.477], ["2020-07-13", 0.415], ["2020-07-13", 0.389], ["2020-07-14", 0.389], ["2020-07-15", 0.389], ["2020-07-16", 0.402], ["2020-07-16", 0.394], ["2020-07-17", 0.394], ["2020-07-18", 0.385], ["2020-07-21", 0.373], ["2020-07-22", 0.37], ["2020-08-01", 0.37], ["2020-08-04", 0.374], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4784/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Social Sciences | Parallel questions for other dissidents: Stefan Molyneux, Richard Spencer, Charles Murray.
American owned social media networks are increasingly censoring their networks for political speech. Twitter too increasingly censors (bans/suspends) accounts, Wikipedia keeps a list of incidents. Lindsay has been critical of cen... | true | 2021-01-31 | Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-09-13 | 2020-07-13 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-16", 0.36], ["2020-07-16", 0.29], ["2020-07-16", 0.23], ["2020-07-16", 0.262], ["2020-07-17", 0.277], ["2020-07-17", 0.277], ["2020-07-17", 0.254], ["2020-07-17", 0.246], ["2020-07-17", 0.24], ["2020-07-17", 0.237], ["2020-07-17", 0.228], ["2020-07-17", 0.239], ["2020-07-17", 0.223], ["2020-07-17", 0.223], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4801/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | On 9 July 2020, the South China Morning Post reported that an ‘Unknown pneumonia’ deadlier than coronavirus was sweeping through Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan itself has denied this report, and Michael Ryan of the WHO has suggested that the pneumonia cases could well just been cause by Covid-19.
This question asks:
Will a pat... | true | 2020-08-12 | Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-07-14 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-16", 0.95], ["2020-07-17", 0.75], ["2020-07-17", 0.78], ["2020-07-17", 0.668], ["2020-07-17", 0.658], ["2020-07-17", 0.658], ["2020-07-17", 0.57], ["2020-07-17", 0.57], ["2020-07-18", 0.551], ["2020-07-18", 0.551], ["2020-07-18", 0.533], ["2020-07-18", 0.533], ["2020-07-18", 0.502], ["2020-07-18", 0.488], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4813/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | In early 2020, US automaker Tesla, Inc. became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined, climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.
Tesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on Ma... | true | 2020-08-03 | [Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-04-20 | 2020-07-14 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-16", 0.505], ["2020-07-18", 0.467], ["2020-07-20", 0.523], ["2020-07-21", 0.529], ["2020-07-22", 0.532], ["2020-07-25", 0.531], ["2020-07-27", 0.53], ["2020-07-28", 0.522], ["2020-07-30", 0.579], ["2020-08-01", 0.582], ["2020-08-03", 0.583], ["2020-08-05", 0.643], ["2020-08-08", 0.657], ["2020-08-10", 0.666]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4816/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Derek Chauvin is,
an American former police officer charged with the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. During an arrest made by Chauvin and three other officers, he knelt on George Floyd's neck for almost eight minutes while Floyd was handcuffed and lying face down on a street. The dea... | true | 2021-03-01 | Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-14 | 2020-07-15 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-19", 0.8], ["2020-07-19", 0.575], ["2020-07-19", 0.64], ["2020-07-19", 0.64], ["2020-07-19", 0.642], ["2020-07-20", 0.61], ["2020-07-20", 0.609], ["2020-07-23", 0.574], ["2020-07-24", 0.574], ["2020-07-24", 0.509], ["2020-07-24", 0.497], ["2020-07-25", 0.497], ["2020-07-25", 0.488], ["2020-07-27", 0.479], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4821/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Effective Altruism Global, abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. EA Global London 2021 is scheduled to be held in London, UK from to 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021. In 2020, EA Global conferences in London and San Francisco were both cancelled due t... | true | 2021-04-29 | Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-07-21 | 2020-07-16 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-17", 0.9], ["2020-07-17", 0.875], ["2020-07-17", 0.833], ["2020-07-18", 0.85], ["2020-07-18", 0.85], ["2020-07-18", 0.786], ["2020-07-18", 0.797], ["2020-07-18", 0.797], ["2020-07-18", 0.81], ["2020-07-18", 0.81], ["2020-07-18", 0.796], ["2020-07-18", 0.796], ["2020-07-18", 0.761], ["2020-07-18", 0.807], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4835/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In March 2019, a report into Russian activity including "allegations of espionage, subversion and interference in elections" was finalised by the UK Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee.
It was referred to Number 10 on 17 October of that year.
At the start of November, Number 10 indicated that there was no ... | true | 2020-07-31 | [Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-06-28 | 2020-07-16 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-13", 0.65], ["2020-08-14", 0.659], ["2020-08-14", 0.629], ["2020-08-15", 0.642], ["2020-08-15", 0.639], ["2020-08-16", 0.642], ["2020-08-16", 0.642], ["2020-08-18", 0.642], ["2020-08-18", 0.637], ["2020-08-19", 0.637], ["2020-08-19", 0.636], ["2020-08-21", 0.641], ["2020-08-23", 0.631], ["2020-08-23", 0.632]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4836/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | China's Tianwen-1 mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:
"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?"
The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars ... | true | 2021-03-18 | Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-01 | 2020-07-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-25", 0.15], ["2020-07-25", 0.237], ["2020-07-26", 0.197], ["2020-07-26", 0.196], ["2020-07-26", 0.184], ["2020-07-27", 0.212], ["2020-07-27", 0.204], ["2020-07-28", 0.186], ["2020-07-28", 0.183], ["2020-07-29", 0.183], ["2020-07-29", 0.179], ["2020-07-31", 0.173], ["2020-08-01", 0.173], ["2020-08-02", 0.172]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4838/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | In the last decade, China has increased its power and reach over the South China Sea, building multiple armed bases and making increasingly aggressive moves.
The United States has sent two aircraft carriers in the South China Sea and has for the first time officially pushed back against China's disputed territorial cla... | true | 2020-10-31 | Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-11 | 2020-07-22 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-26", 0.15], ["2020-07-26", 0.2], ["2020-07-26", 0.417], ["2020-07-26", 0.385], ["2020-07-26", 0.374], ["2020-07-26", 0.383], ["2020-07-26", 0.341], ["2020-07-26", 0.324], ["2020-07-26", 0.332], ["2020-07-27", 0.326], ["2020-07-27", 0.326], ["2020-07-27", 0.314], ["2020-07-27", 0.314], ["2020-07-27", 0.328], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4868/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (born November 20, 1942) is an American politician who served as the 47th vice president of the United States from 2009 to 2017 and represented Delaware in the U.S. Senate from 1973 to 2009. A member of the Democratic Party, Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee for president in the 202... | true | 2020-08-02 | [Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-01 | 2020-07-23 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-25", 0.17], ["2020-07-26", 0.177], ["2020-07-26", 0.169], ["2020-07-26", 0.151], ["2020-07-26", 0.144], ["2020-07-26", 0.129], ["2020-07-26", 0.129], ["2020-07-26", 0.102], ["2020-07-26", 0.102], ["2020-07-26", 0.102], ["2020-07-27", 0.098], ["2020-07-27", 0.085], ["2020-07-27", 0.077], ["2020-07-27", 0.076]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4874/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | At the time of writing, The Three Gorges Dam is nearly full, and has experienced some "deformation". A partial failure of the dam could be catastrophic for the hundreds of millions of people who live downstream of the dam. Due to the deformation and ongoing full release of water, there is some speculation about failure... | true | 2020-09-01 | [Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-23 | 2020-07-23 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-16", 0.3], ["2020-08-16", 0.25], ["2020-08-17", 0.373], ["2020-08-17", 0.373], ["2020-08-17", 0.423], ["2020-08-19", 0.423], ["2020-08-19", 0.427], ["2020-08-19", 0.437], ["2020-08-20", 0.448], ["2020-08-20", 0.474], ["2020-08-20", 0.474], ["2020-08-28", 0.496], ["2020-08-28", 0.5], ["2020-08-31", 0.5], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4876/ | A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.
Big pre-trained language models contain a lot of implici... | Science & Tech | This question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?
This question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will... | true | 2021-03-30 | Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-07-27 | 2020-07-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-24", 0.7], ["2020-07-24", 0.8], ["2020-07-24", 0.8], ["2020-07-24", 0.6], ["2020-07-24", 0.6], ["2020-07-24", 0.6], ["2020-07-24", 0.648], ["2020-07-24", 0.648], ["2020-07-24", 0.67], ["2020-07-24", 0.532], ["2020-07-24", 0.532], ["2020-07-24", 0.552], ["2020-07-24", 0.592], ["2020-07-24", 0.548], ["2020-07-... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4887/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | Wikipedia:
Mike S. Adams (born Columbus, Mississippi, October 30, 1964[1] - July 23, 2020) was an American conservative political columnist, writer, author and professor at University of North Carolina Wilmington (UNCW).[1][2]
Recently, in June, it was reported that the university opened an investigation into whether h... | true | 2020-08-31 | Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-08-12 | 2020-07-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-25", 0.1], ["2020-07-25", 0.68], ["2020-07-25", 0.662], ["2020-07-25", 0.655], ["2020-07-25", 0.715], ["2020-07-25", 0.761], ["2020-07-25", 0.787], ["2020-07-25", 0.78], ["2020-07-25", 0.782], ["2020-07-25", 0.789], ["2020-07-26", 0.793], ["2020-07-26", 0.817], ["2020-07-26", 0.823], ["2020-07-26", 0.824], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4888/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The outcome of the US presidential election is the subject of this Metaculus question, which with over 330 interest votes at the time of question writing is the most "interesting" question on the front page of Metaculus by more than an order of magnitude. There also many related questions, which can be found here.
Seve... | true | 2020-08-12 | [Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-04 | 2020-07-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-01", 0.48], ["2020-08-01", 0.393], ["2020-08-01", 0.482], ["2020-08-02", 0.37], ["2020-08-02", 0.314], ["2020-08-03", 0.308], ["2020-08-03", 0.302], ["2020-08-04", 0.296], ["2020-08-05", 0.298], ["2020-08-05", 0.298], ["2020-08-05", 0.298], ["2020-08-07", 0.294], ["2020-08-08", 0.29], ["2020-08-08", 0.286], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4896/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | A similar question to this was asked in 2016.
The fivethirtyeight.com team, lead by Nate Silver, was able to predict exactly the 2012 state-by-state electoral map for the presidential election. In 2008 their prediction missed on only a single state, Indiana, which Obama won by a 0.1% margin. However, in 2016, they miss... | true | 2020-11-03 | Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-07-26 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-27", 0.045], ["2020-07-28", 0.05], ["2020-07-28", 0.044], ["2020-07-29", 0.052], ["2020-07-30", 0.051], ["2020-07-30", 0.05], ["2020-07-31", 0.055], ["2020-07-31", 0.055], ["2020-08-01", 0.055], ["2020-08-01", 0.055], ["2020-08-04", 0.055], ["2020-08-08", 0.054], ["2020-08-10", 0.054], ["2020-08-12", 0.054],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4900/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | There is serious concern that China's Three Gorges Dam may fail due to heavy flooding.
And that if it fails, it would kill millions of people, perhaps 100 million according to some claims, and displace even more. Up to ~400 million people live downstream of the dam.
It would arguably be the biggest non-pandemic disaste... | true | 2020-12-31 | Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2020-07-30 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-01", 0.2], ["2020-08-02", 0.145], ["2020-08-03", 0.145], ["2020-08-04", 0.149], ["2020-08-06", 0.164], ["2020-08-07", 0.163], ["2020-08-09", 0.157], ["2020-08-12", 0.156], ["2020-08-13", 0.155], ["2020-08-15", 0.153], ["2020-08-18", 0.153], ["2020-08-20", 0.153], ["2020-08-22", 0.148], ["2020-08-29", 0.152],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4906/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | According to a Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years ol... | true | 2021-01-29 | Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-15 | 2020-07-31 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-16", 0.02], ["2020-08-17", 0.05], ["2020-08-17", 0.062], ["2020-08-18", 0.07], ["2020-08-19", 0.086], ["2020-08-19", 0.086], ["2020-08-19", 0.095], ["2020-08-21", 0.095], ["2020-08-28", 0.096], ["2020-08-31", 0.101], ["2020-09-10", 0.125], ["2020-09-12", 0.129], ["2020-09-13", 0.129], ["2020-09-13", 0.139], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4910/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In US presidential elections, after electors have voted, states send electoral certificates recording the electoral votes made; these are then tallied by Congress to find the winner of the presidential and vice presidential elections.
In the 1876 US presidential election, four states (Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina... | true | 2020-12-13 | Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-02-01 | 2020-08-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-02", 0.73], ["2020-08-04", 0.72], ["2020-08-05", 0.739], ["2020-08-07", 0.739], ["2020-08-08", 0.742], ["2020-08-10", 0.685], ["2020-08-12", 0.714], ["2020-08-14", 0.604], ["2020-08-16", 0.572], ["2020-08-18", 0.533], ["2020-08-20", 0.544], ["2020-08-22", 0.581], ["2020-08-23", 0.585], ["2020-08-26", 0.589],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4918/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Belarus will have a presidential election on August 09, 2020. Historically, elections in Belarus have been "neither free nor fair". However, recently opposition to Lukashenko has become more vocal.
This question asks, Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?
This question will be resol... | true | 2021-01-31 | Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-08-25 | 2020-08-04 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-05", 0.9], ["2020-08-05", 0.9], ["2020-08-05", 0.797], ["2020-08-05", 0.83], ["2020-08-05", 0.835], ["2020-08-05", 0.86], ["2020-08-05", 0.866], ["2020-08-05", 0.88], ["2020-08-05", 0.88], ["2020-08-06", 0.878], ["2020-08-06", 0.881], ["2020-08-06", 0.881], ["2020-08-06", 0.869], ["2020-08-06", 0.88], ["2020... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4926/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Delinquency rate refers to the percentage of loans whose payments are overdue. Delinquency and consumer debt may be predictive of consumption, and therefore economic output.
Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?
This question resolves positively if FRED's economic da... | true | 2020-09-28 | Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-27 | 2020-08-05 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-11", 0.4], ["2020-08-11", 0.6], ["2020-08-12", 0.575], ["2020-08-12", 0.575], ["2020-08-12", 0.607], ["2020-08-13", 0.656], ["2020-08-13", 0.655], ["2020-08-15", 0.66], ["2020-08-16", 0.66], ["2020-08-16", 0.664], ["2020-08-17", 0.667], ["2020-08-18", 0.681], ["2020-08-19", 0.695], ["2020-08-19", 0.671], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4935/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The current nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, was signed April 8th 2010. It limits the number of deployed warheads of both countries to 1,550 deployed on 700 strategic delivery systems, and includes measures to monitor this.
New START is set to expire on ... | true | 2020-11-29 | Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-09-30 | 2020-08-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-16", 0.99], ["2020-08-16", 0.99], ["2020-08-16", 0.86], ["2020-08-16", 0.86], ["2020-08-16", 0.606], ["2020-08-16", 0.643], ["2020-08-16", 0.697], ["2020-08-17", 0.697], ["2020-08-17", 0.705], ["2020-08-17", 0.702], ["2020-08-17", 0.718], ["2020-08-17", 0.726], ["2020-08-17", 0.726], ["2020-08-17", 0.747], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4937/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Will at least 1 of the 3 planned presidential debates happen before the 2020 election, and include both Donald Trump and Joe Biden in said debate?
Background
The presidential debates has been a staple of American presidential elections for many decades - where typically there are 3 presidential debates and 1 vice presi... | true | 2020-09-15 | Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-12-30 | 2020-08-07 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-16", 0.3], ["2020-08-21", 0.265], ["2020-08-25", 0.265], ["2020-08-30", 0.272], ["2020-09-01", 0.269], ["2020-09-05", 0.26], ["2020-09-17", 0.259], ["2020-09-22", 0.258], ["2020-09-25", 0.258], ["2020-09-27", 0.26], ["2020-10-02", 0.26], ["2020-10-06", 0.26], ["2020-10-09", 0.261], ["2020-10-14", 0.259], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4946/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, tweeting May 31st:
The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.
US Texan Senator Ted Cruz has similarly been campaigning for this move:
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight ... | true | 2021-11-15 | Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-01-11 | 2020-08-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-15", 0.365], ["2020-08-17", 0.329], ["2020-08-19", 0.305], ["2020-08-21", 0.365], ["2020-08-22", 0.368], ["2020-08-31", 0.368], ["2020-09-11", 0.369], ["2020-09-11", 0.361], ["2020-09-29", 0.361], ["2020-10-02", 0.331], ["2020-10-04", 0.335], ["2020-10-06", 0.337], ["2020-10-10", 0.341], ["2020-10-11", 0.336... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4994/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus.
This paper argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to o... | true | 2021-12-04 | Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-02-03 | 2020-08-15 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-23", 0.05], ["2020-08-23", 0.2], ["2020-08-23", 0.2], ["2020-08-23", 0.218], ["2020-08-23", 0.266], ["2020-08-24", 0.269], ["2020-08-25", 0.251], ["2020-08-25", 0.235], ["2020-08-26", 0.235], ["2020-08-27", 0.206], ["2020-08-28", 0.197], ["2020-08-28", 0.174], ["2020-08-28", 0.156], ["2020-08-29", 0.149], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5032/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Apple Inc. is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Cupertino, California, that designs, develops, and sells consumer electronics, computer software, and online services. It is considered one of the Big Tech technology companies, alongside Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Facebook.
Apple is well kn... | true | 2020-12-01 | Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-20 | 2020-08-16 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-18", 0.2], ["2020-08-19", 0.133], ["2020-08-19", 0.286], ["2020-08-20", 0.275], ["2020-08-20", 0.27], ["2020-08-20", 0.258], ["2020-08-20", 0.257], ["2020-08-21", 0.253], ["2020-08-21", 0.253], ["2020-08-23", 0.251], ["2020-08-23", 0.254], ["2020-08-24", 0.254], ["2020-08-25", 0.247], ["2020-08-25", 0.243], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5033/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | From Reuters,
President Donald Trump said on [August 15th] he is considering a pardon for Edward Snowden, the former U.S. National Security Agency contractor - now living in Russia - whose spectacular leaks shook the U.S. intelligence community in 2013.
The Republican president's comments followed an interview (here) T... | true | 2020-12-01 | Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-12 | 2020-08-16 | ["https://apnews.com/85942717e8fa40c09da1f2f3d6\u2026"] | binary | [["2020-08-25", 0.4], ["2020-08-25", 0.5], ["2020-08-25", 0.5], ["2020-08-25", 0.478], ["2020-08-25", 0.462], ["2020-08-25", 0.462], ["2020-08-25", 0.444], ["2020-08-25", 0.43], ["2020-08-25", 0.408], ["2020-08-26", 0.406], ["2020-08-26", 0.419], ["2020-08-26", 0.438], ["2020-08-26", 0.409], ["2020-08-26", 0.408], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5034/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | High profile means at least two credible media sources report that a criminal investigation resulted in a hidden site on the Tor Network became unavailable. No arrests need to be made.
Some historical data, each of which would qualify if they took place in 2021:
Silk Road was taken down in 2013, along with Freedom Host... | true | 2021-09-01 | Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-04 | 2020-08-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-19", 0.08], ["2020-08-19", 0.238], ["2020-08-20", 0.22], ["2020-08-20", 0.213], ["2020-08-21", 0.201], ["2020-08-21", 0.202], ["2020-08-21", 0.202], ["2020-08-23", 0.2], ["2020-08-23", 0.2], ["2020-08-23", 0.202], ["2020-08-24", 0.195], ["2020-08-24", 0.193], ["2020-08-24", 0.188], ["2020-08-25", 0.196], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5047/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | From Wikipedia,
On October 7, 2016, during the 2016 United States presidential election, The Washington Post published a video and accompanying article about then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and television host Billy Bush having "an extremely lewd conversation about women" in 2005. Trump and Bush were in a bus ... | true | 2020-11-01 | Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-02 | 2020-08-20 | [] | binary | [["2020-09-16", 0.59], ["2020-09-16", 0.59], ["2020-09-17", 0.345], ["2020-09-18", 0.263], ["2020-09-18", 0.445], ["2020-09-18", 0.436], ["2020-09-18", 0.388], ["2020-09-19", 0.354], ["2020-09-19", 0.366], ["2020-09-20", 0.366], ["2020-09-20", 0.381], ["2020-09-20", 0.408], ["2020-09-20", 0.403], ["2020-09-20", 0.395],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5104/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | After months of civil unrest, Malian president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita has been forced to resigne and dissolve the parliament by a junta (Source). The leaders of the coup publicly announced that they want to organise a general election but without giving any clear time-frame:
“We are keen on the stability of the country... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-20 | 2020-08-20 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-23", 0.775], ["2020-08-24", 0.732], ["2020-08-24", 0.769], ["2020-08-24", 0.741], ["2020-08-24", 0.749], ["2020-08-24", 0.779], ["2020-08-25", 0.786], ["2020-08-25", 0.794], ["2020-08-25", 0.793], ["2020-08-25", 0.791], ["2020-08-25", 0.794], ["2020-08-26", 0.797], ["2020-08-27", 0.797], ["2020-08-27", 0.791... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5105/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | As reported by Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020:
Former White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico bo... | true | 2024-12-31 | Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-06-01 | 2020-08-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-23", 0.6], ["2020-08-23", 0.515], ["2020-08-23", 0.585], ["2020-08-23", 0.585], ["2020-08-23", 0.64], ["2020-08-24", 0.65], ["2020-08-24", 0.696], ["2020-08-24", 0.69], ["2020-08-25", 0.627], ["2020-08-25", 0.627], ["2020-08-26", 0.62], ["2020-08-27", 0.624], ["2020-08-28", 0.627], ["2020-08-28", 0.638], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5112/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | From the BBC,
Uber and Lyft have been granted a reprieve in a row over drivers' employment rights in California after a court granted an emergency injunction.
The ride-hailing firms had threatened to suspend operations over an earlier ruling that they must classify drivers as employees, not contractors. But the repriev... | true | 2020-11-03 | Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-09-30 | 2020-08-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-27", 0.7], ["2020-08-28", 0.703], ["2020-08-29", 0.663], ["2020-08-30", 0.729], ["2020-08-31", 0.748], ["2020-08-31", 0.755], ["2020-09-01", 0.747], ["2020-09-05", 0.733], ["2020-09-11", 0.733], ["2020-09-12", 0.735], ["2020-09-24", 0.732], ["2020-09-25", 0.726], ["2020-09-26", 0.726], ["2020-09-27", 0.721],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5138/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in c... | true | 2021-05-02 | Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-04 | 2020-08-26 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-29", 0.77], ["2020-08-29", 0.51], ["2020-08-30", 0.56], ["2020-08-30", 0.586], ["2020-08-30", 0.619], ["2020-08-30", 0.612], ["2020-08-31", 0.613], ["2020-08-31", 0.624], ["2020-08-31", 0.627], ["2020-08-31", 0.624], ["2020-09-01", 0.635], ["2020-09-02", 0.645], ["2020-09-05", 0.65], ["2020-09-07", 0.647], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5147/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In 2019, California passed Assembly Bill 5 (AB 5), which assumes a worker is an employee, rather than an independent contractor, unless three criteria are met. In August 2020, the Superior Court of San Francisco ruled that Uber and Lyft had violated AB 5.
Proposition 22 is a ballot initiative that would override AB 5 t... | true | 2020-11-02 | Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-12 | 2020-08-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-28", 0.75], ["2020-08-28", 0.51], ["2020-08-28", 0.51], ["2020-08-28", 0.695], ["2020-08-28", 0.726], ["2020-08-29", 0.773], ["2020-08-29", 0.709], ["2020-08-29", 0.751], ["2020-08-29", 0.737], ["2020-08-29", 0.738], ["2020-08-29", 0.758], ["2020-08-29", 0.77], ["2020-08-29", 0.77], ["2020-08-29", 0.766], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5151/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Following the shooting of Jacob Blake by a policeman, and the murder of two protesters by a teenager in the subsequent protests, the Milwaukee Bucks refused to play in game 5 of their NBA playoff series. All three of the games scheduled for 26 August, involving Orlando Magic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, LA ... | true | 2020-09-29 | [Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-11-19 | 2020-08-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-30", 0.5], ["2020-09-02", 0.204], ["2020-09-04", 0.197], ["2020-09-06", 0.198], ["2020-09-08", 0.197], ["2020-09-10", 0.202], ["2020-09-13", 0.202], ["2020-09-15", 0.201], ["2020-09-16", 0.202], ["2020-09-18", 0.199], ["2020-09-22", 0.199], ["2020-09-25", 0.208], ["2020-09-27", 0.21], ["2020-09-29", 0.202], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5158/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Kyle Rittenhouse is, CBS news:
A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Att... | true | 2021-04-30 | Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-10-12 | 2020-08-29 | [] | binary | [["2020-09-15", 0.4], ["2020-09-15", 0.64], ["2020-09-15", 0.64], ["2020-09-15", 0.538], ["2020-09-16", 0.499], ["2020-09-16", 0.538], ["2020-09-16", 0.509], ["2020-09-16", 0.509], ["2020-09-16", 0.509], ["2020-09-16", 0.505], ["2020-09-16", 0.511], ["2020-09-17", 0.51], ["2020-09-17", 0.511], ["2020-09-17", 0.517], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5172/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | The Nobel Prize in Economics, officially known as "The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel", is a prize administered by the Nobel Foundation given to recipients who have made outstanding contributions in Economics or other Social Sciences.
As might be expected, the prize is frequently... | true | 2020-10-11 | Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-30 | 2020-08-31 | ["https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/"] | binary | [["2020-09-01", 0.83], ["2020-09-01", 0.815], ["2020-09-01", 0.78], ["2020-09-01", 0.776], ["2020-09-01", 0.772], ["2020-09-02", 0.777], ["2020-09-02", 0.777], ["2020-09-02", 0.785], ["2020-09-03", 0.785], ["2020-09-03", 0.78], ["2020-09-03", 0.782], ["2020-09-03", 0.788], ["2020-09-03", 0.788], ["2020-09-03", 0.758], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5181/ | The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, better known as "CalFire", maintains a Top 20 Most Destructive California Wildfires list. The list is accessible in the "General Information/Links" box at https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/ (note that the address of the list itself changes as the list is upd... | Environment & Energy | This question will resolve positively if the CZU Lightning Complex is ranked higher than the LNU Lightning Complex on the list when both fires have been extinguished, and negatively otherwise | true | 2020-09-08 | Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-10-14 | 2020-09-04 | [] | binary | [["2020-09-07", 0.35], ["2020-09-08", 0.195], ["2020-09-08", 0.248], ["2020-09-08", 0.21], ["2020-09-08", 0.21], ["2020-09-08", 0.197], ["2020-09-08", 0.192], ["2020-09-08", 0.196], ["2020-09-08", 0.187], ["2020-09-09", 0.182], ["2020-09-09", 0.191], ["2020-09-09", 0.19], ["2020-09-09", 0.186], ["2020-09-09", 0.183], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5202/ | According to the New York Times,
President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. will debate with a single moderator at each of their three matchups, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced on Wednesday, September 2.
The first debate of the general election, on Sept. 29, will be moderated by the “Fox News Sunday” anch... | Politics & Governance | For a positive resolution, Biden's polling average as reported by 538 must drop by at least five full percentage points relative to the number reported as of 00:00 on September 29, the day the first debate is to take place, before 00:00 on October 14, both dates in Eastern Time.
For example, if Biden has 48.5% in the p... | true | 2020-09-28 | Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-02 | 2020-09-08 | ["https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/folketingsvalg/resultater"] | binary | [["2020-09-16", 0.5], ["2020-09-17", 0.465], ["2020-09-18", 0.465], ["2020-09-18", 0.34], ["2020-09-19", 0.31], ["2020-09-19", 0.25], ["2020-09-19", 0.25], ["2020-09-20", 0.293], ["2020-09-22", 0.293], ["2020-09-26", 0.341], ["2020-09-27", 0.33], ["2020-09-28", 0.33], ["2020-09-28", 0.327], ["2020-10-01", 0.311], ["202... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5217/ | Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique, a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of The Alternative (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but h... | Politics & Governance | If Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election (in 2023 or before), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.
If any sitting member of the parliamen... | true | 2023-06-04 | Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-30 | 2020-09-10 | ["http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2012.02.015)"] | binary | [["2020-09-23", 0.62], ["2020-09-23", 0.52], ["2020-09-26", 0.513], ["2020-09-26", 0.476], ["2020-09-28", 0.483], ["2020-10-02", 0.486], ["2020-10-02", 0.486], ["2020-10-02", 0.495], ["2020-10-09", 0.493], ["2020-10-10", 0.489], ["2020-10-10", 0.489], ["2020-11-05", 0.491], ["2020-12-05", 0.491]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5219/ | There have been many retractions of scientific papers concerning controversial topics in recent times. For instance, earlier this year, Cory Clark et al retracted a much discussed paper (Declines in Religiosity Predict Increases in Violent Crime—but Not Among Countries With Relatively High Average IQ). Similarly, Hans ... | Science & Tech | If any additional paper authored by Rushton is officially retracted before 2022, this question resolves positively.
Rushton can be any author on the paper, first, middle, or last | true | 2022-12-31 | Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-14 | 2020-09-14 | [] | binary | [["2020-09-17", 0.02], ["2020-09-17", 0.047], ["2020-09-17", 0.048], ["2020-09-17", 0.048], ["2020-09-17", 0.052], ["2020-09-17", 0.057], ["2020-09-18", 0.056], ["2020-09-18", 0.063], ["2020-09-18", 0.072], ["2020-09-18", 0.097], ["2020-09-18", 0.098], ["2020-09-18", 0.098], ["2020-09-18", 0.115], ["2020-09-18", 0.126]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5256/ | According to the New York Times,
President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. will debate with a single moderator at each of their three matchups, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced on Wednesday, September 2.
The first debate of the general election, on Sept. 29, will be moderated by the “Fox News Sunday” anch... | Politics & Governance | For a positive resolution, Trump's polling average as reported by 538 must drop by at least five full percentage points relative to the number reported as of 00:00 on September 29, the day the first debate is to take place, before 00:00 on October 14, both dates in Eastern Time.
For example, if Trump has 43.5% in the p... | true | 2020-09-28 | Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-03 | 2020-09-18 | [] | binary | [["2020-09-30", 0.66], ["2020-09-30", 0.29], ["2020-09-30", 0.238], ["2020-09-30", 0.338], ["2020-09-30", 0.311], ["2020-09-30", 0.291], ["2020-10-01", 0.301], ["2020-10-01", 0.301], ["2020-10-01", 0.288], ["2020-10-01", 0.266], ["2020-10-01", 0.257], ["2020-10-02", 0.256], ["2020-10-02", 0.26], ["2020-10-02", 0.264], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5271/ | Former President George W. Bush did not endorse fellow Republican Donald Trump in his 2016 presidential campaign, and a spokesman for Bush said that he did not vote for any candidate for president that year.
Many prominent Republicans and former staff of the Bush administration have endorsed Joe Biden for president in ... | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if George W. Bush makes a public statement saying that he plans to vote for Joe Biden for president in the November 2020 election or encourages others to do so, or that his desired outcome for the 2020 U.S. presidential election is that Joe Biden is elected president. This question... | true | 2020-11-02 | Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-10-27 | 2020-09-22 | [] | binary | [["2020-09-25", 0.855], ["2020-09-25", 0.762], ["2020-09-25", 0.713], ["2020-09-25", 0.737], ["2020-09-25", 0.706], ["2020-09-25", 0.706], ["2020-09-26", 0.745], ["2020-09-26", 0.745], ["2020-09-26", 0.762], ["2020-09-26", 0.761], ["2020-09-26", 0.776], ["2020-09-27", 0.794], ["2020-09-27", 0.797], ["2020-09-27", 0.803... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5298/ | Amy Vivian Coney Barrett (born January 28, 1972) is an American lawyer, jurist, and academic who serves as a circuit judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit. Barrett considers herself a public-meaning originalist; her judicial philosophy has been likened to that of her mentor and former boss, Antonin... | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if Amy Coney Barrett is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern on November 3 2020 (election day). It resolves negatively if this does not happen | true | 2020-10-14 | [Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-09-28 | 2020-09-26 | [] | binary | [["2020-09-30", 0.53], ["2020-10-01", 0.527], ["2020-10-02", 0.507], ["2020-10-03", 0.548], ["2020-10-04", 0.536], ["2020-10-05", 0.512], ["2020-10-09", 0.512], ["2020-10-10", 0.517], ["2020-10-14", 0.536], ["2020-10-14", 0.536], ["2020-10-15", 0.54], ["2020-10-17", 0.532], ["2020-10-18", 0.531], ["2020-11-09", 0.531],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5311/ | Petrov Day is the yearly anniversary of the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm ... | Security & Defense | If the site lesswrong.com hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that... | true | 2021-09-24 | If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-03 | 2020-10-03 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5343/trum\u2026"] | binary | [["2020-10-03", 0.175], ["2020-10-03", 0.188], ["2020-10-04", 0.184], ["2020-10-04", 0.204], ["2020-10-04", 0.202], ["2020-10-04", 0.194], ["2020-10-04", 0.191], ["2020-10-04", 0.19], ["2020-10-04", 0.189], ["2020-10-05", 0.187], ["2020-10-05", 0.192], ["2020-10-05", 0.192], ["2020-10-05", 0.192], ["2020-10-05", 0.169]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5342/ | Section three of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States (PDF) states the following;
Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his... | Politics & Governance | For a positive resolution, before November 3 2020 it must be announced by the White House or reported by the New York Times or Washington Post that President Trump has transferred presidential powers to Mike Pence under the terms of section three of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. A transfer under any other section of the ... | true | 2020-11-01 | Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-03 | 2020-10-03 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5342/s3-o\u2026"] | binary | [["2020-10-03", 0.03], ["2020-10-03", 0.256], ["2020-10-04", 0.206], ["2020-10-04", 0.2], ["2020-10-04", 0.193], ["2020-10-04", 0.191], ["2020-10-04", 0.19], ["2020-10-04", 0.181], ["2020-10-05", 0.18], ["2020-10-05", 0.179], ["2020-10-05", 0.176], ["2020-10-05", 0.178], ["2020-10-05", 0.175], ["2020-10-05", 0.171], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5343/ | Section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States (PDF) states the following;
Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Sena... | Politics & Governance | For a positive resolution, before November 3 2020 it must be announced by the White House or reported by the New York Times or Washington Post that President Trump has been relieved of his duties as president and the vice president has become Acting President under the terms of section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendmen... | true | 2020-11-01 | Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-03 | 2020-10-03 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-04", 0.55], ["2020-10-04", 0.65], ["2020-10-04", 0.375], ["2020-10-04", 0.375], ["2020-10-04", 0.475], ["2020-10-04", 0.475], ["2020-10-04", 0.412], ["2020-10-04", 0.4], ["2020-10-04", 0.4], ["2020-10-04", 0.397], ["2020-10-04", 0.329], ["2020-10-04", 0.337], ["2020-10-04", 0.337], ["2020-10-04", 0.334], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5345/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Section 3 of the 25th amendment of the United States constitution states,
Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them... | true | 2020-10-09 | Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-05-29 | 2020-10-04 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15036/2023-presidential-election-in-t%25C3%25BCrkiye/", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/28/europe/turkey-president-runoff-polls-erdogan-intl/index.html", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15036/2023-presidential-election-in-t%25C3%25BCrkiye/"] | binary | [["2020-10-29", 0.45], ["2020-10-29", 0.45], ["2020-10-29", 0.6], ["2020-10-30", 0.575], ["2020-10-30", 0.575], ["2020-10-30", 0.681], ["2020-10-30", 0.681], ["2020-10-31", 0.64], ["2020-10-31", 0.643], ["2020-10-31", 0.643], ["2020-11-01", 0.643], ["2020-11-02", 0.652], ["2020-11-02", 0.659], ["2020-11-03", 0.671], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5350/ | Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.
He was last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote, and has already expressed interest for the next elections wit... | Politics & Governance | Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).
Resolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.... | true | 2021-05-31 | Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-15 | 2020-10-05 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-12", 0.55], ["2020-10-12", 0.55], ["2020-10-13", 0.511], ["2020-10-13", 0.511], ["2020-10-13", 0.511], ["2020-10-13", 0.495], ["2020-10-13", 0.598], ["2020-10-13", 0.569], ["2020-10-13", 0.624], ["2020-10-13", 0.656], ["2020-10-13", 0.661], ["2020-10-13", 0.619], ["2020-10-13", 0.619], ["2020-10-13", 0.628],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5354/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | On the 6th of August 2020, the Government of Poland introduced three kinds of epidemic zones (or "areas" as the government website calls them). Each district's classification depends on the number of infections its has at the time. The list is based on analyses of the dynamics of infection increases in the last 14 days... | true | 2020-10-15 | [Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-24 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.11], ["2020-10-20", 0.678], ["2020-10-20", 0.533], ["2020-10-21", 0.56], ["2020-10-21", 0.593], ["2020-10-21", 0.588], ["2020-10-21", 0.58], ["2020-10-21", 0.608], ["2020-10-21", 0.621], ["2020-10-21", 0.627], ["2020-10-21", 0.625], ["2020-10-21", 0.625], ["2020-10-21", 0.624], ["2020-10-21", 0.619], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5356/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
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There are growing co... | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if, at any time between 2020-11-03 (Election Day) and 2020-11-17, either candidate concede that he has lost the 2020 US Presidential Election. They may do this in any venue so long as it is public (e.g. a Tweet will suffice). They may do so using any phrasing (so long as it is sufficie... | true | 2020-10-30 | Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-03-01 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.05], ["2020-10-20", 0.151], ["2020-10-20", 0.151], ["2020-10-21", 0.171], ["2020-10-21", 0.163], ["2020-10-21", 0.151], ["2020-10-21", 0.168], ["2020-10-21", 0.155], ["2020-10-21", 0.171], ["2020-10-21", 0.159], ["2020-10-21", 0.163], ["2020-10-21", 0.16], ["2020-10-21", 0.161], ["2020-10-21", 0.168],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5357/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.
On 15 September 2020... | Politics & Governance | The question resolves positively if both sides issue an official statement announcing that formal ties will be established between the two countries. It resolves negatively if neither side, or only one side, has done so.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the... | true | 2020-10-30 | By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-02-28 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.5], ["2020-10-20", 0.314], ["2020-10-20", 0.338], ["2020-10-21", 0.371], ["2020-10-21", 0.355], ["2020-10-21", 0.359], ["2020-10-21", 0.359], ["2020-10-21", 0.374], ["2020-10-21", 0.362], ["2020-10-21", 0.36], ["2020-10-21", 0.358], ["2020-10-21", 0.383], ["2020-10-21", 0.383], ["2020-10-21", 0.381], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5358/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
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The severe acute res... | Healthcare & Biology | This question resolves positively if by the 1st of March 2021 a credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 10 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. I... | true | 2020-10-30 | Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-13 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.75], ["2020-10-20", 0.753], ["2020-10-20", 0.721], ["2020-10-21", 0.768], ["2020-10-21", 0.768], ["2020-10-21", 0.755], ["2020-10-21", 0.769], ["2020-10-21", 0.778], ["2020-10-21", 0.8], ["2020-10-21", 0.796], ["2020-10-21", 0.796], ["2020-10-21", 0.801], ["2020-10-21", 0.8], ["2020-10-21", 0.775], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5359/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
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The 59th presidentia... | Politics & Governance | Resolution will be by credible media reports. In the case of disagreement between different media outlets, the turnout calculated by the Federal Election Commission in its report on Federal Elections in 2020 will be used. See here for a copy of the 2016 report.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the pri... | true | 2020-10-30 | Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.65], ["2020-10-20", 0.756], ["2020-10-20", 0.766], ["2020-10-21", 0.774], ["2020-10-21", 0.774], ["2020-10-21", 0.776], ["2020-10-21", 0.776], ["2020-10-21", 0.792], ["2020-10-21", 0.79], ["2020-10-21", 0.787], ["2020-10-21", 0.787], ["2020-10-21", 0.795], ["2020-10-21", 0.797], ["2020-10-21", 0.785],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5360/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
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S&P 500 Index (Ticke... | Economics & Business | This question resolves positively in the event that the value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 3,230.78 points, and resolves negatively if the index value is equal to or lower than 3,230.78 points in the last day close of 2020.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this ques... | true | 2020-10-30 | Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-02-14 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.375], ["2020-10-20", 0.276], ["2020-10-20", 0.276], ["2020-10-21", 0.27], ["2020-10-21", 0.309], ["2020-10-21", 0.303], ["2020-10-21", 0.303], ["2020-10-21", 0.291], ["2020-10-21", 0.282], ["2020-10-21", 0.279], ["2020-10-21", 0.294], ["2020-10-21", 0.294], ["2020-10-21", 0.279], ["2020-10-21", 0.283]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5361/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
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Consumer confidence ... | true | 2020-10-30 | By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-04 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.5], ["2020-10-20", 0.358], ["2020-10-20", 0.359], ["2020-10-21", 0.351], ["2020-10-21", 0.344], ["2020-10-21", 0.35], ["2020-10-21", 0.35], ["2020-10-21", 0.353], ["2020-10-21", 0.353], ["2020-10-21", 0.369], ["2020-10-21", 0.369], ["2020-10-21", 0.363], ["2020-10-21", 0.365], ["2020-10-21", 0.375], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5362/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.
Black Lives Matter i... | Politics & Governance | The question resolves positively if levels of opposition to Black Lives Matter are higher than 40% according to Civiqs survey data. The question resolves negative if opposition is 40% or lower.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked he... | true | 2020-10-30 | On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-02-03 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.5], ["2020-10-20", 0.624], ["2020-10-20", 0.624], ["2020-10-21", 0.541], ["2020-10-21", 0.541], ["2020-10-21", 0.51], ["2020-10-21", 0.532], ["2020-10-21", 0.542], ["2020-10-21", 0.539], ["2020-10-21", 0.539], ["2020-10-21", 0.506], ["2020-10-21", 0.551], ["2020-10-21", 0.551], ["2020-10-21", 0.56], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5366/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
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In the beginning mon... | Healthcare & Biology | The question resolves positively if the rolling average of daily new confirmed deaths per million, during the week beginning in 26 December 2020 (inclusive) and ending on 1 January 2021 (inclusive), is higher in Sweden than Denmark.
The question resolves according to the relevant charts on OurWorldinData.com. The chart... | true | 2020-10-30 | On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-06-23 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2021-01-15", 0.49], ["2021-01-15", 0.427], ["2021-01-15", 0.437], ["2021-01-16", 0.437], ["2021-01-16", 0.332], ["2021-01-16", 0.575], ["2021-01-16", 0.575], ["2021-01-16", 0.575], ["2021-01-16", 0.575], ["2021-01-16", 0.575], ["2021-01-16", 0.575], ["2021-01-16", 0.575], ["2021-01-16", 0.575], ["2021-01-16", 0.575]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5380/ | Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion:
Cybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and f... | Security & Defense | If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively.
If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the... | true | 2024-12-31 | Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-20 | 2020-10-07 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-08", 0.12], ["2020-10-09", 0.22], ["2020-10-10", 0.214], ["2020-10-11", 0.207], ["2020-10-12", 0.221], ["2020-10-13", 0.225], ["2020-10-14", 0.233], ["2020-10-15", 0.239], ["2020-10-16", 0.238], ["2020-10-17", 0.236], ["2020-10-18", 0.236], ["2020-10-19", 0.241], ["2020-10-20", 0.244], ["2020-10-21", 0.241],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5383/ | The 2020 USA Presidential election is widely expected to be contested. Notably, the higher proportion of mail ballots brought by the COVID-19 epidemic could lead vote counting to take weeks instead of the usual days. The incumbent has also refused to commit to a peaceful transition of power.
Metaculus already has a que... | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positive if Donald Trump is the President of the USA at 12:00 AM EST on 2021-01-21.
It resolves negative if he is not president at that time | true | 2021-01-19 | Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-05 | 2020-10-09 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-11", 0.56], ["2020-10-11", 0.56], ["2020-10-11", 0.43], ["2020-10-11", 0.43], ["2020-10-12", 0.41], ["2020-10-12", 0.418], ["2020-10-12", 0.377], ["2020-10-13", 0.371], ["2020-10-13", 0.374], ["2020-10-13", 0.374], ["2020-10-13", 0.377], ["2020-10-13", 0.377], ["2020-10-14", 0.384], ["2020-10-14", 0.381], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5396/ | Proposition 16 is,
a California ballot proposition that will appear on the November 3, 2020 general election ballot, asking California voters to amend the Constitution of California to repeal 1996's Proposition 209. Proposition 209 amended the state constitution to prohibit government institutions from considering race... | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if credible media report that proposition 16 passed in the 2020 California election | true | 2020-11-03 | Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-05 | 2020-10-09 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-11", 0.6], ["2020-10-11", 0.545], ["2020-10-11", 0.537], ["2020-10-12", 0.577], ["2020-10-12", 0.56], ["2020-10-12", 0.528], ["2020-10-13", 0.51], ["2020-10-13", 0.51], ["2020-10-13", 0.517], ["2020-10-13", 0.517], ["2020-10-14", 0.512], ["2020-10-14", 0.49], ["2020-10-14", 0.48], ["2020-10-14", 0.481], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5397/ | Proposition 21,
Allows for Expansion of Rent Control. The measure modifies the three main limitations of Costa-Hawkins, allowing cities and counties to apply rent control to more properties than under current law. Specifically, cities and counties can apply rent control to most housing that is more than 15 years old. T... | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if credible media report that proposition 21 passed in the 2020 California election | true | 2020-11-03 | Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-01-01 | 2020-10-11 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-17", 0.4], ["2020-10-17", 0.4], ["2020-10-17", 0.35], ["2020-10-17", 0.35], ["2020-10-17", 0.35], ["2020-10-18", 0.4], ["2020-10-18", 0.408], ["2020-10-19", 0.389], ["2020-10-19", 0.389], ["2020-10-20", 0.391], ["2020-10-20", 0.379], ["2020-10-20", 0.379], ["2020-10-22", 0.365], ["2020-10-27", 0.342], ["2020... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5409/ | The United Nations Charter of 1945 grants five sovereign states a permanent seat on the UN Security Council: the People's Republic of China (formerly the Republic of China), the French Republic, the Russian Federation (formerly the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern I... | Politics & Governance | This question resolves according to the total number of vetoed resolutions recorded on the research.un.org website on 1 January 2022.
This question concerns the number of unique resolutions vetoed, not the number of veto votes cast. For example, the draft resolution 'S/2019/961' was vetoed by both Russia and China, but... | true | 2020-12-31 | Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-04-01 | 2020-10-11 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-15", 0.33], ["2020-10-16", 0.403], ["2020-10-16", 0.353], ["2020-10-18", 0.321], ["2020-10-18", 0.301], ["2020-10-18", 0.3], ["2020-10-20", 0.3], ["2020-10-20", 0.305], ["2020-10-20", 0.305], ["2020-10-21", 0.31], ["2020-10-29", 0.302], ["2020-10-30", 0.28], ["2020-10-30", 0.284], ["2020-10-31", 0.283], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5411/ | Margaret Ferrier, a British MP, has attracted controversy for travelling from Glasgow to London with Covid-19 symptoms, then returning home by train after testing positive in late September 2020.
Her party has removed the party whip and suspended her, and made it clear that she should resign as MP. But she has not yet ... | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if Margaret Ferrier resigns as MP before 1st April 2021.
Fine Print
British MPs cannot technically resign; MPs who wish to step down are instead appointed to an "office of profit under the Crown", which disqualifies them from sitting in Parliament. There are two fictional offices usual... | true | 2021-02-01 | Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-01-01 | 2020-10-11 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-14", 0.67], ["2020-10-18", 0.651], ["2020-10-21", 0.647], ["2020-10-28", 0.647], ["2020-10-31", 0.637], ["2020-11-02", 0.631], ["2020-11-05", 0.631], ["2020-11-08", 0.628], ["2020-11-14", 0.631], ["2020-11-18", 0.631], ["2020-11-20", 0.635], ["2020-11-25", 0.632], ["2020-11-29", 0.635], ["2020-12-03", 0.635]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5415/ | Over the years, North Korea has conducted a number of missile tests as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.
Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Ko... | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given... | true | 2021-10-14 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-02 | 2020-10-14 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-18", 0.4], ["2020-10-19", 0.383], ["2020-10-19", 0.355], ["2020-10-19", 0.333], ["2020-10-19", 0.328], ["2020-10-19", 0.312], ["2020-10-20", 0.316], ["2020-10-20", 0.316], ["2020-10-20", 0.313], ["2020-10-20", 0.32], ["2020-10-20", 0.322], ["2020-10-20", 0.324], ["2020-10-21", 0.326], ["2020-10-21", 0.326], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5434/ | Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.
Over the last week, it has been revealed at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had a ... | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve positively if, before 1 December 2020, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.
For the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian, The Australian.
The que... | true | 2020-11-13 | [Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-03-06 | 2020-10-14 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.75], ["2020-10-20", 0.308], ["2020-10-20", 0.275], ["2020-10-20", 0.286], ["2020-10-21", 0.243], ["2020-10-21", 0.233], ["2020-10-21", 0.233], ["2020-10-21", 0.221], ["2020-10-21", 0.221], ["2020-10-21", 0.218], ["2020-10-21", 0.23], ["2020-10-21", 0.212], ["2020-10-21", 0.23], ["2020-10-21", 0.23], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5437/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.
Over the years, Nort... | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United... | true | 2020-10-30 | Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-22 | 2020-10-14 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.99], ["2020-10-20", 0.46], ["2020-10-20", 0.572], ["2020-10-20", 0.584], ["2020-10-21", 0.571], ["2020-10-21", 0.58], ["2020-10-21", 0.566], ["2020-10-21", 0.588], ["2020-10-21", 0.594], ["2020-10-21", 0.558], ["2020-10-21", 0.543], ["2020-10-21", 0.531], ["2020-10-21", 0.531], ["2020-10-21", 0.536], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5438/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.
As of 14 October 202... | Healthcare & Biology | The question resolves according to data on Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resources website on the 24th of December at 11:59PM ET.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here. | true | 2020-10-30 | Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million? | metaculus | 1 |
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