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True | 2022-04-10 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2297 | <p>The French presidential election is scheduled for 10 April 2022 (<a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2021/12/07/french-presidential-election-who-s-who-in-the-race-to-replace-macron" target="_blank">Euronews</a>). Results of a runoff would be immaterial.</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span st... | 2022-04-11 | Will Marine Le Pen place either first or second in the 2022 French presidential election? | 2022-03-09 | [["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.235], ["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.15], ["2022-03-15", 0.3], ["2022-03-15", 0.3], ["2022-03-15", 0.3], ["2022-03-15", 0.235], ["2022-03-15", 0.3], ["2022-03-15", 0.385], ["2022-03-15", 0.47], ["2022-03-15", 0.605], ["2022-03-15", 0.74], ["2022-03-15", 0.72], ["2022-03-15"... | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1416331", "https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_M%C3%A9lenchon#Political_positions", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/macron-won-but-the-french-polls-were-way-off/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_French_presidential_e... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-02-13 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2097 |
<p>Regional tensions involving Iran continue (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/rocket-sirens-sound-northern-israel-golan-heights-israeli-miltary-says-2021-08-06/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-israel-tanker-attack/2021/08/01/d48bae2e-... | 2022-02-14 | Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state? | 2021-08-13 | [["2021-08-13", 0.0], ["2021-08-13", 0.25], ["2021-08-13", 0.5], ["2021-08-13", 0.6], ["2021-08-13", 0.65], ["2021-08-13", 0.6], ["2021-08-13", 0.55], ["2021-08-13", 0.5], ["2021-08-13", 0.5], ["2021-08-13", 0.5], ["2021-08-14", 0.4], ["2021-08-14", 0.3], ["2021-08-14", 0.275], ["2021-08-14", 0.275], ["2021-08-14", 0.3... | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/12/israel-bombed-a-dozen-ships-carrying-iranian-oil-or-weapons-report", "https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-689730", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Luis_Carrero_Blanco", "https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-israel-iran-iran-nuclear-united-arab-e... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-06-23 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2140 |
<p>Two New York State citizens applied for firearm concealed-carry licenses for self-defense, but were denied because they failed to show a "proper cause" for obtaining the license (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/20-843" target="_blank">Oyez</a>). Two men sued, claiming that the denial of licenses viola... | 2022-06-23 | In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, will the Supreme Court rule that New York State's denial of applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment? | 2021-09-30 | [["2021-09-30", 1.0], ["2021-09-30", 0.75], ["2021-09-30", 1.0], ["2021-09-30", 0.75], ["2021-09-30", 0.55], ["2021-09-30", 0.775], ["2021-09-30", 0.72], ["2021-10-01", 0.86], ["2021-10-01", 0.72], ["2021-10-01", 0.735], ["2021-10-01", 0.72], ["2021-10-01", 0.71], ["2021-10-01", 0.72], ["2021-10-01", 0.735], ["2021-10-... | ["https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/10/in-major-second-amendment-case-court-will-review-limits-on-carrying-a-concealed-gun-in-public/", "https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-11-01/supreme-court-gun-rights-gun-control-concealed-carry-2nd-amendment", "https://news.yahoo.com/supreme-court-appears-lean-toward-195941669... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939 |
<p>While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/can... | 2022-01-03 | Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022? | 2021-02-16 | [["2021-02-16", 1.0], ["2021-02-16", 0.95], ["2021-02-16", 0.9], ["2021-02-16", 0.825], ["2021-02-16", 0.75], ["2021-02-16", 0.9], ["2021-02-17", 0.75], ["2021-02-17", 0.8], ["2021-02-17", 0.85], ["2021-02-17", 0.88], ["2021-02-17", 0.84], ["2021-02-18", 0.8], ["2021-02-18", 0.8], ["2021-02-18", 0.75], ["2021-02-18", 0... | ["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-24/tiny-issuer-thinks-it-just-got-the-edge-in-race-for-bitcoin-etf?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business", "https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/new-sec-chairman-gives-his... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-05-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1545 |
<p>After passing a key safety milestone in January 2020 (<a href="https://www.spacex.com/news/2020/01/19/crew-dragon-launch-escape-demonstration" target="_blank">SpaceX</a>), Elon Musk is hopeful 'Crew Dragon', SpaceX's crewed capsule, launches soon (<a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-crew-dragon-astronaut-lau... | 2020-05-30 | Before 1 July 2020, will SpaceX launch its first crewed mission into orbit? | 2020-02-27 | [["2020-02-28", 0.93], ["2020-02-28", 0.85], ["2020-02-28", 0.85], ["2020-02-29", 0.88], ["2020-02-29", 0.89], ["2020-02-29", 0.87], ["2020-02-29", 0.82], ["2020-02-29", 0.82], ["2020-02-29", 0.64], ["2020-02-29", 0.64], ["2020-02-29", 0.64], ["2020-02-29", 0.715], ["2020-02-29", 0.75], ["2020-02-29", 0.75], ["2020-02-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2431 |
<p>Two years after a deadly clash left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain high (<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/china-india-relations-2-years-after-galwan-clash/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>, <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/asia/2022/06/01/india-and-china-hold-new-meetin... | 2023-01-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2023? | 2022-06-27 | [["2022-06-28", 1.0], ["2022-06-28", 0.515], ["2022-06-28", 0.34833333333333333], ["2022-06-28", 0.32571428571428573], ["2022-06-29", 0.26555555555555554], ["2022-06-29", 0.146], ["2022-06-29", 0.144], ["2022-06-29", 0.142], ["2022-06-29", 0.141], ["2022-06-29", 0.123], ["2022-06-29", 0.112], ["2022-06-29", 0.108], ["2... | ["https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/ahead-of-brics-meet-chinas-foreign-minister-meets-indian-envoy/article65556887.ece", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#cite_note-:72-44", "https://www.dailypioneer.com/2022/india/normalisation-of-ties-between-india-and-china-in-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-11-28 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2531 |
<p>China is dealing with tensions with various countries, including India, Japan, Taiwan, and the US (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-08-12/india-calls-for-de-escalation-of-taiwan-china-tensions" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-japa... | 2022-11-28 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel the People's Republic of China (PRC) and those of any other country before 28 November 2022? | 2022-09-01 | [["2022-09-12", 0.335], ["2022-09-12", 0.205], ["2022-09-12", 0.165], ["2022-09-12", 0.125], ["2022-09-12", 0.111], ["2022-09-12", 0.0992], ["2022-09-12", 0.0857], ["2022-09-13", 0.1413], ["2022-09-13", 0.1276], ["2022-09-13", 0.1284], ["2022-09-13", 0.119], ["2022-09-13", 0.113], ["2022-09-13", 0.11], ["2022-09-13", 0... | ["https://twitter.com/Ian_M_Easton/status/1318254008621031426", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/14/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china/", "https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-peoples-republic-of-china-prc... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-02-28 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2266 |
<p>Steel prices have seen large gains as inflation grips the US economy (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/10/1079260860/january-inflation-consumer-prices-cpi-economy-federal-reserve" target="_blank">NPR</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by SteelBenchmarker (<a href="http://steelbench... | 2022-03-02 | Will the price of steel plate in the US be higher as of 28 February 2022 than it was as of 24 January 2022, according to Steel Benchmarker? | 2022-02-11 | [["2022-02-11", 1.0], ["2022-02-11", 0.995], ["2022-02-11", 1.0], ["2022-02-11", 0.995], ["2022-02-11", 1.0], ["2022-02-11", 0.995], ["2022-02-12", 1.0], ["2022-02-12", 0.995], ["2022-02-12", 0.99], ["2022-02-12", 0.99], ["2022-02-12", 0.99], ["2022-02-12", 0.995], ["2022-02-12", 0.99], ["2022-02-12", 0.99], ["2022-02-... | ["https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/steel-futures.html", "https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/iron-ore-price", "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/ferrous/us-midwest-domestic-steel-premium-cru.quotes.html", "https://www.metalbulletin.com/steel/flat-products/plate.html", "https://www.white... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-09-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1972 |
<p>As civil unrest in Myanmar grows in the wake of the February coup, there are fears as to what lengths the military may go to suppress protests (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55902070" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-police-use-water-cannon-as-protesters-rally/a-56... | 2021-09-15 | Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021? | 2021-03-26 | [["2021-03-26", 0.1], ["2021-03-26", 0.05], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-26", 0.0], ["2021-03-27", 0.0], ["2021-03-27", 0.0], ["2021-03-27", 0.0], ["2021-03-27", 0.0], ["2021-03-27", 0.025], [... | ["https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/fighting-ignites-between-kia-and-junta-in-sagaing", "https://www.arabnews.com/node/1842531/world", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/3/at-least-8-reported-killed-in-myanmar-anti-coup-protests", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210501-un-fails-to-agree-on-myanmar-statem... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-05-12 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841 |
<p>On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a... | 2021-05-17 | On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency? | 2020-11-12 | [["2020-11-13", 1.0], ["2020-11-13", 0.95], ["2020-11-13", 1.0], ["2020-11-13", 0.95], ["2020-11-13", 0.9], ["2020-11-13", 0.875], ["2020-11-14", 0.9], ["2020-11-14", 0.9], ["2020-11-14", 0.9], ["2020-11-14", 0.9], ["2020-11-14", 0.9], ["2020-11-14", 0.9], ["2020-11-15", 0.9], ["2020-11-15", 0.9], ["2020-11-15", 0.875]... | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_the_Netherlands", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia/b171-ethiopias-tigray-war-deadly-dangerous-stalemate", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/09/cries-of-the-victims-of-mass-go-unheard-in-ethiopias-mountain-war", "https://chilot.m... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-07-17 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1550 |
<p>In early March, Democratic Party insider and CNN contributor Paul Begala said that it was "a certainty" that Trump will "dump Mike Pence and put Nikki Haley on the ticket" on the last day of the Democratic National Convention (<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/media/485562-cnns-begala-trump-will-dump-pence... | 2020-07-18 | Before 18 July 2020, will President Trump announce that Nikki Haley will be his 2020 running mate? | 2020-03-05 | [["2020-03-06", 0.45], ["2020-03-06", 0.33], ["2020-03-06", 0.16], ["2020-03-06", 0.16], ["2020-03-06", 0.1], ["2020-03-06", 0.085], ["2020-03-07", 0.07], ["2020-03-07", 0.07], ["2020-03-07", 0.07], ["2020-03-07", 0.07], ["2020-03-07", 0.085], ["2020-03-07", 0.18], ["2020-03-07", 0.2], ["2020-03-07", 0.2], ["2020-03-07... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1995 |
<p>President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States (<a href="https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2020/11/president-elect-biden-supports-a-carbon-enforcement-mechanism-could-that-mean-a-price-on-carbon/" target="_blank">Harvard Environmental &... | 2022-01-01 | Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022? | 2021-04-30 | [["2021-04-30", 0.0], ["2021-04-30", 0.035], ["2021-04-30", 0.07], ["2021-04-30", 0.035], ["2021-04-30", 0.07], ["2021-04-30", 0.11], ["2021-04-30", 0.07], ["2021-04-30", 0.06], ["2021-04-30", 0.05], ["2021-04-30", 0.01], ["2021-05-01", 0.005], ["2021-05-01", 0.01], ["2021-05-01", 0.03], ["2021-05-01", 0.01], ["2021-05... | ["https://dnyuz.com/2021/09/24/sinemas-income-tax-stance-has-democrats-looking-anew-at-a-carbon-tax/", "https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1450474320992538629", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/2378", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/15/will-us-ever-put-a-price-on-carbon-as-part-of-climate-chang... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-04-28 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1574 |
<p>Amidst a full lockdown, Italy's long-term growth potential could take a hit (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-ratings-s-p/sp-global-risk-to-italy-rating-only-if-coronavirus-hits-long-term-growth-idUSKBN20X213" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/ratin... | 2020-04-29 | Before 4 July 2020, will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P downgrade Italy's long-term foreign currency issuer ratings? | 2020-03-26 | [["2020-03-27", 0.55], ["2020-03-27", 0.55], ["2020-03-27", 0.55], ["2020-03-27", 0.575], ["2020-03-27", 0.58], ["2020-03-27", 0.56], ["2020-03-27", 0.58], ["2020-03-27", 0.6], ["2020-03-27", 0.58], ["2020-03-27", 0.56], ["2020-03-28", 0.6], ["2020-03-28", 0.58], ["2020-03-28", 0.58], ["2020-03-28", 0.585], ["2020-03-2... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | None | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2852 | <p>A PHEIC is defined by WHO as "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response" under International Health Regulations, with recent examples including COVID-19, Mon... | None | Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 1 July 2024? | 2023-04-13 | [["2023-04-13", 0.67], ["2023-04-13", 0.335], ["2023-04-13", 0.3233], ["2023-04-13", 0.33], ["2023-04-13", 0.402], ["2023-04-13", 0.4117], ["2023-04-14", 0.3529], ["2023-04-14", 0.3488], ["2023-04-14", 0.3333], ["2023-04-14", 0.3256], ["2023-04-14", 0.335], ["2023-04-14", 0.34], ["2023-04-15", 0.3333], ["2023-04-15", 0... | ["https://www.fao.org/hunger/en/", "https://www.who.int/news/item/14-06-2007-international-health-regulations-enter-into-force", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/27/tick-bite-red-meat-allergy-ags-cdc", "https://www.propublica.org/article/pandemic-outbreak-guinea-forest-propublica-analysis?utm_source=sailth... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870 |
<p>Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https:/... | 2022-01-03 | Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? | 2020-12-17 | [["2020-12-18", 0.41], ["2020-12-18", 0.41], ["2020-12-19", 0.015], ["2020-12-19", 0.385], ["2020-12-19", 0.3], ["2020-12-19", 0.75], ["2020-12-19", 0.785], ["2020-12-20", 0.82], ["2020-12-20", 0.82], ["2020-12-20", 0.8], ["2020-12-21", 0.75], ["2020-12-21", 0.75], ["2020-12-21", 0.75], ["2020-12-22", 0.75], ["2020-12-... | ["https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Spotlight/China-guides-its-self-driving-startups-into-the-fast-lane", "https://roboticsandautomationnews.com/2021/01/28/baidu-apollo-receives-driverless-vehicle-test-permit-in-california/40012/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2021/01/27/autox-opens-real-robotaxi... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2634 |
<p>Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/14/three-scenarios-for-how-war-in-ukraine-could-play-out" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href=... | 2023-10-01 | Before 1 October 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device in Ukrainian territory, territorial waters, or airspace? | 2022-11-18 | [["2022-11-18", 0.045], ["2022-11-18", 0.06], ["2022-11-18", 0.0522], ["2022-11-18", 0.0385], ["2022-11-19", 0.0365], ["2022-11-19", 0.03], ["2022-11-19", 0.0264], ["2022-11-19", 0.0345], ["2022-11-19", 0.0436], ["2022-11-19", 0.0416], ["2022-11-19", 0.0385], ["2022-11-19", 0.0381], ["2022-11-19", 0.0485], ["2022-11-19... | ["https://jamestown.org/program/putins-nuclear-provocations-proliferate/", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-nuclear-missile-exercise-putin-ukraine-b2310321.html", "https://unherd.com/2023/06/why-putin-will-use-nuclear-weapons/", "https://michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/the-guessing-game-about-what-p... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-12-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2145 |
<p>In 2006, the UAE changed its weekend from Thursday-Friday to Friday-Saturday to have more business hours consistent with Europe and elsewhere around the world (<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4991068.stm" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.esquireme.com/brief/news/53862-is-the-uae-sw... | 2021-12-07 | Before 1 September 2022, will the government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially announce a change to its weekend? | 2021-10-01 | [["2021-10-01", 0.0], ["2021-10-01", 0.0], ["2021-10-02", 0.0], ["2021-10-02", 0.005], ["2021-10-02", 0.01], ["2021-10-02", 0.015], ["2021-10-03", 0.02], ["2021-10-03", 0.015], ["2021-10-03", 0.02], ["2021-10-03", 0.01], ["2021-10-03", 0.025], ["2021-10-04", 0.01], ["2021-10-05", 0.045], ["2021-10-05", 0.045], ["2021-1... | ["https://gulfnews.com/uae/two-day-weekend-which-day-to-club-with-friday-1.362545", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/money/2021/08/24/is-a-four-day-working-week-possible-in-the-uae-pocketful-of-dirhams/", "https://twitter.com/UAEmediaoffice/status/1468129958019182592?s=20", "https://www.arabnews.com/node/19279... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-06-27 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1557 |
<p>Outcome will be determined by data from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications Survey press release, generally published five days after the week's end at <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom" target="_blank">Mortgage Bankers Association</a>. For the week ending 6 Mar... | 2020-07-01 | Before 27 June 2020, will the weekly average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. fall below 3.00%? | 2020-03-12 | [["2020-03-13", 0.75], ["2020-03-13", 0.375], ["2020-03-13", 0.375], ["2020-03-13", 0.375], ["2020-03-13", 0.3], ["2020-03-14", 0.25], ["2020-03-14", 0.375], ["2020-03-14", 0.375], ["2020-03-14", 0.375], ["2020-03-14", 0.4], ["2020-03-14", 0.4], ["2020-03-14", 0.4], ["2020-03-14", 0.25], ["2020-03-14", 0.25], ["2020-03... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-02-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833 |
<p>Russia and China have engaged in joint naval exercises in the past, both bilaterally and with other nations (<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/china-russia-kick-off-bilateral-naval-exercise-joint-sea/" target="_blank">Diplomat</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/27/asia/china-russia-iran-mil... | 2021-02-15 | Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021? | 2020-11-09 | [["2020-11-10", 0.06], ["2020-11-10", 0.105], ["2020-11-10", 0.15], ["2020-11-10", 0.105], ["2020-11-10", 0.06], ["2020-11-10", 0.055], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.055], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.055], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["2020-11-11", 0.045], ["2020-11-11", 0.05], ["202... | ["https://www.dawn.com/news/1606284", "https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/06-Feb-2021/pakistan-navy-releases-promo-in-connection-with-aman-naval-exercise", "https://www.islamabadscene.com/pakistan-navys-biggest-exercise-aman-21-begins-45-countries-participating/", "https://www.rt.com/russia/509271-navy-drills-pakistan-nat... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-12-17 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2335 |
<p>Saudi Arabia and the People's Republic of China are reportedly discussing the use of Chinese yuan as payment for Saudi oil (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https:/... | 2022-12-17 | Before 17 December 2022, will Saudi Arabia publicly announce that it will begin accepting yuan as payment for oil from China? | 2022-04-01 | [["2022-04-01", 0.705], ["2022-04-01", 0.7025], ["2022-04-01", 0.5933333333333334], ["2022-04-01", 0.6528571428571428], ["2022-04-01", 0.6388888888888888], ["2022-04-01", 0.62], ["2022-04-01", 0.631], ["2022-04-01", 0.643], ["2022-04-01", 0.496], ["2022-04-01", 0.512], ["2022-04-02", 0.546], ["2022-04-02", 0.455], ["20... | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclusive-us-weighs-possible-resumption-offensive-arms-sales-saudis-sources-2022-07-11/", "https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-vs-yuan-china-buy-gulf-oil-energy-rmb-currency-2022-12", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-xi-tells-gulf-nations-use-shan... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-11-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1746 |
<p>After California passed a law creating a new test to for determining whether workers can be classified as independent contractors, firms like Uber and Lyft are supporting Proposition 22 on the state ballot this November (<a href="https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/512137-california-ruling-against-... | 2020-11-05 | Will California voters approve Proposition 22 (App-Based Drivers as Contractors and Labor Policies Initiative)? | 2020-08-18 | [["2020-08-18", 0.5], ["2020-08-18", 0.325], ["2020-08-18", 0.15], ["2020-08-18", 0.15], ["2020-08-18", 0.33], ["2020-08-18", 0.2], ["2020-08-18", 0.35], ["2020-08-18", 0.4], ["2020-08-18", 0.365], ["2020-08-19", 0.33], ["2020-08-19", 0.365], ["2020-08-19", 0.365], ["2020-08-19", 0.365], ["2020-08-19", 0.365], ["2020-0... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-08-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1650 |
<p>Defense Secretary Esper's future in the Trump Administration is in question after developments related to protests in the wake of the death of George Floyd (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-this-week/2020/06/06/politics-this-week" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.defensenew... | 2020-08-05 | Before 5 August 2020, will Mark Esper cease to be the U.S. Secretary of Defense? | 2020-06-05 | [["2020-06-05", 0.585], ["2020-06-05", 0.7], ["2020-06-05", 0.73], ["2020-06-05", 0.73], ["2020-06-05", 0.67], ["2020-06-05", 0.765], ["2020-06-05", 0.705], ["2020-06-05", 0.75], ["2020-06-05", 0.75], ["2020-06-06", 0.77], ["2020-06-06", 0.75], ["2020-06-06", 0.75], ["2020-06-06", 0.75], ["2020-06-06", 0.8], ["2020-06-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-02-28 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2714 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by ExchangeRates.org.uk for 28 February 2023 (<a href="https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/EUR-TRY-exchange-rate-history.html" target="_blank">Exchangerates.org.uk</a>, see "Table of 1 Euro to Turkish Lira Exchange Rate").</p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Que... | 2023-03-01 | Will the value of the euro to Turkish lira exchange rate be higher than 22.000 on 28 February 2023? | 2023-01-16 | [["2023-01-16", 0.05], ["2023-01-16", 0.025], ["2023-01-17", 0.07], ["2023-01-17", 0.2525], ["2023-01-17", 0.212], ["2023-01-17", 0.1767], ["2023-01-17", 0.1514], ["2023-01-17", 0.1325], ["2023-01-17", 0.1956], ["2023-01-17", 0.183], ["2023-01-17", 0.1682], ["2023-01-17", 0.1592], ["2023-01-17", 0.1585], ["2023-01-17",... | ["https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Producer-Price-Index-of-Agricultural-Products-December-2022-49734", "https://enagrup.org/?hl=en"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-05-28 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2304 |
<p>The 2021-22 UEFA Champions League Final is scheduled for 28 May 2022 (<a href="https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/fixtures-results/format/" target="_blank">UEFA</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#... | 2022-05-28 | Will a team from England win the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League Final? | 2022-03-09 | [["2022-03-15", 0.33], ["2022-03-15", 0.5], ["2022-03-15", 0.58], ["2022-03-15", 0.605], ["2022-03-15", 0.6], ["2022-03-15", 0.6], ["2022-03-15", 0.6], ["2022-03-15", 0.6], ["2022-03-15", 0.59], ["2022-03-15", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", 0.59], ["2022-03-16", ... | ["https://www.laliga.com/partido/temporada-2021-2022-laliga-santander-cadiz-cf-real-madrid-37", "https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/0275-151e9aea97a2-343677ff5a8f-1000--champions-league-final-possible-line-ups-selection-dilemmas-tea/", "https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primera_Divisi%C3%B3n_de_Espa%C3%B1a_2021-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-04-14 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2296 |
<p>The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC (<a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html" target="_blank">PHAC</a>). Total cases are displayed with the map graphic. For daily case data, click the ".CSV" button to the right of the map... | 2022-04-14 | Before 1 May 2022, will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 3.6 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada? | 2022-03-09 | [["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.13], ["2022-03-15", 0.26], ["2022-03-15", 0.205], ["2022-03-15", 0.19], ["2022-03-15", 0.15], ["2022-03-15", 0.135], ["2022-03-15", 0.12], ["2022-03-15", 0.11], ["2022-03-15", 0.12], ["2022-03-15", 0.11], ["2022-03-15", 0.1], ["2022-03-15", 0.1], ["2022-03-15", 0.1], ["2022-03-16"... | ["https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html?stat=num&measure=total&map=pt#a2", "https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/omicron-ba-2-subvariant-becoming-dominant-representing-potential-risk", "https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1507329507329548293", "https://ou... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2870 |
<p>While Sweden submitted its application to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in May 2022, approval from Hungary and Turkey remain obstacles to membership (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-03-29/hungary-says-grievances-hold-up-ratification-of-swedens-nato-accession" targe... | 2023-10-01 | Will Sweden become a member of NATO before 1 October 2023? | 2023-05-04 | [["2023-05-05", 0.71], ["2023-05-05", 0.87], ["2023-05-05", 0.738], ["2023-05-05", 0.7914], ["2023-05-05", 0.8356], ["2023-05-05", 0.7755], ["2023-05-06", 0.7508], ["2023-05-06", 0.7673], ["2023-05-06", 0.6959], ["2023-05-06", 0.7068], ["2023-05-06", 0.68], ["2023-05-06", 0.6759], ["2023-05-06", 0.6904], ["2023-05-07",... | ["https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2023/07/19/menendez-maintains-hold-on-turkey-f-16-jets-despite-sweden-nato-deal/", "https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/parliament-announces-recess-until-october-184740", "https://nordicmonitor.com/2023/08/erdogan-unconvincing-on-swedens-timeline-after-swift-approval-of-finlands-nat... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-02-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1416 | <p>China has increased import tariffs on U.S. yellow soybeans (also known as yellow soya beans) to 33% as of the launch of this question (<a href="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/china-china-announces-increases-additional-tariffs-us-agricultural-products" target="_blank">USDA</a>, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/ch... | 2020-02-19 | Before 1 May 2020, will China reduce or remove any tariffs imposed on U.S. yellow soybeans? | 2019-12-06 | [["2019-12-06", 0.55], ["2019-12-06", 0.7], ["2019-12-06", 0.7], ["2019-12-06", 0.55], ["2019-12-06", 0.475], ["2019-12-07", 0.45], ["2019-12-07", 0.425], ["2019-12-07", 0.42], ["2019-12-07", 0.41], ["2019-12-07", 0.4], ["2019-12-07", 0.35], ["2019-12-07", 0.275], ["2019-12-08", 0.26], ["2019-12-08", 0.25], ["2019-12-0... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822 |
<p>As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) (<a href="https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506" target="_blank">Medium</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/form... | 2022-01-01 | Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? | 2020-10-30 | [["2020-10-30", 0.825], ["2020-10-30", 0.665], ["2020-10-31", 0.64], ["2020-10-31", 0.75], ["2020-10-31", 0.675], ["2020-10-31", 0.275], ["2020-11-01", 0.09], ["2020-11-01", 0.07], ["2020-11-01", 0.05], ["2020-11-02", 0.05], ["2020-11-02", 0.055], ["2020-11-02", 0.05], ["2020-11-02", 0.05], ["2020-11-03", 0.05], ["2020... | ["https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/30/3-reasons-amazon-should-consider-spinning-off-aws/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1315415", "https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/30/prediction-these-will-be-10-largest-stocks-by-2035/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-other-tech-giants-could-be-forced-to-shed-asse... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929 |
<p>Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-... | 2021-11-01 | Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities? | 2021-02-05 | [["2021-02-05", 1.0], ["2021-02-05", 0.775], ["2021-02-05", 0.55], ["2021-02-05", 0.315], ["2021-02-05", 0.1], ["2021-02-05", 0.175], ["2021-02-05", 0.165], ["2021-02-05", 0.25], ["2021-02-05", 0.165], ["2021-02-05", 0.08], ["2021-02-05", 0.08], ["2021-02-05", 0.165], ["2021-02-05", 0.25], ["2021-02-05", 0.165], ["2021... | ["https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-prison-mass-hunger-strike/31457897.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2021/mar/17/joe-biden-covid-coronavirus-relief-plan-andrew-cuomo-atlanta-shooting-live-updates", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56644807", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russia_rallies_arrests_oppositi... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1494 |
<p>A change in Scotland's relationship with the United Kingdom is being discussed as a possible consequence of the Brexit process (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51106796" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-g... | 2021-01-01 | Before 1 January 2021, will a date be set for a referendum on Scotland's status within the United Kingdom? | 2020-01-17 | [["2020-01-17", 0.2], ["2020-01-18", 0.275], ["2020-01-18", 0.2], ["2020-01-18", 0.035], ["2020-01-18", 0.05], ["2020-01-19", 0.06], ["2020-01-19", 0.05], ["2020-01-19", 0.1], ["2020-01-19", 0.15], ["2020-01-19", 0.2], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.2], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.35], ["2020-01-19",... | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland/scotlands-sturgeon-hints-at-legal-move-if-independence-vote-blocked-idUSKBN28A0QD", "https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-scotland-referendum-idUKKBN27X0MA"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1709 |
<p>Georgia's Vogtle Electric Generating Plant will become the country's largest nuclear power plant with the addition of new reactor Units 3 and 4, the first new nuclear power units built in the United States in decades (<a href="https://dailyenergyinsider.com/news/26307-vogtle-unit-3-reaches-new-milestones... | 2021-01-01 | Before 1 January 2021, will it be announced that the fueling of the Vogtle nuclear reactor Unit 3 has begun? | 2020-07-24 | [["2020-07-24", 0.0], ["2020-07-24", 0.45], ["2020-07-24", 0.13], ["2020-07-24", 0.19], ["2020-07-24", 0.25], ["2020-07-24", 0.26], ["2020-07-24", 0.25], ["2020-07-24", 0.26], ["2020-07-24", 0.25], ["2020-07-24", 0.26], ["2020-07-24", 0.26], ["2020-07-24", 0.26], ["2020-07-24", 0.26], ["2020-07-25", 0.235], ["2020-07-2... | ["https://www.southerncompany.com/newsroom/2020/dec-2020/georgia-power-receives-first-nuclear-fuel-shipment-for-vogtle-unit-3.html"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2771 |
<p>President Biden first nominated Sohn to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in October 2021, but the Senate did not hold a confirmation vote in the last Congress (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/10/26/1049301069/biden-fcc-nominations-rosenworcel-sohn" target="_blank">NPR</a>). Biden renominated her i... | 2023-03-08 | Will US FCC nominee Gigi Sohn be confirmed by the Senate before 24 June 2023? | 2023-02-23 | [["2023-02-24", 0.05], ["2023-02-24", 0.29], ["2023-02-24", 0.26], ["2023-02-24", 0.36], ["2023-02-24", 0.328], ["2023-02-25", 0.3067], ["2023-02-25", 0.2629], ["2023-02-25", 0.29], ["2023-02-25", 0.2856], ["2023-02-25", 0.357], ["2023-02-25", 0.3609], ["2023-02-25", 0.335], ["2023-02-25", 0.3131], ["2023-02-26", 0.290... | ["https://www.axios.com/2023/03/03/gigi-sohn-fcc-nomination", "https://ballotpedia.org/Confirmation_process_for_Debra_Haaland_for_secretary_of_the_interior", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sohn-won-t-chair-fcc-if-confirmed-white-house-official-says/ar-AA18hur1", "https://www.axios.com/2023/03/03/gigi-sohn-fcc... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-03-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1938 |
<p>Originally created as a joke, the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has seen an incredible rise in value due to pushes made on Reddit and elsewhere (<a href="https://dogecoin.com/" target="_blank">Dogecoin</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/dogecoin-s-creator-is-just-as-baffled-as-you-are-a... | 2021-03-16 | Will be the end-of-day price of a Dogecoin on 15 March 2021 be higher as compared to the end-of-day price on 15 February 2021? | 2021-02-16 | [["2021-02-16", 0.05], ["2021-02-16", 0.15], ["2021-02-16", 0.25], ["2021-02-16", 0.175], ["2021-02-16", 0.25], ["2021-02-16", 0.225], ["2021-02-16", 0.2], ["2021-02-16", 0.11], ["2021-02-16", 0.1], ["2021-02-16", 0.105], ["2021-02-16", 0.11], ["2021-02-16", 0.13], ["2021-02-16", 0.15], ["2021-02-17", 0.175], ["2021-02... | ["https://tradingbeasts.com/price-prediction/dogecoin", "https://www.coindesk.com/git-along-lil-doge-dallas-mavs-to%02accept-dogecoin-for-tickets-merchandise", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/1200235/dogecoin-price-index/", "https://capital.com/dogecoin-price-prediction-2021-and-beyond", "https://www.coindesk.com/... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2033 |
<p>US oil production fell a record 8% in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic (<a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47056" target="_blank">EIA</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/09/07/covid-19-us-oil-industry-wyoming-texas-baker-hughes/5735992002/" target="_blank">USA T... | 2022-01-05 | Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil exceed 12 million b/d in 2021? | 2021-06-11 | [["2021-06-11", 0.99], ["2021-06-11", 0.695], ["2021-06-11", 0.99], ["2021-06-11", 0.695], ["2021-06-11", 0.63], ["2021-06-11", 0.715], ["2021-06-11", 0.63], ["2021-06-11", 0.515], ["2021-06-12", 0.4], ["2021-06-12", 0.4], ["2021-06-12", 0.33], ["2021-06-12", 0.4], ["2021-06-12", 0.33], ["2021-06-12", 0.26], ["2021-06-... | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/07/oil-markets-us-inventories-demand-concerns.html", "https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/#restrictions", "https://texasnewstoday.com/oil-companies-cut-production-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-by-91-ahead-of-hurricane-ida/434835/", "https://www.houstonchronicle... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2718 |
For the purposes of this question, "additional territory" means any Ukrainian territory other than territory in the oblasts of Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, or Zaporizhzhia. Forces that are not formally part of the Russian military (e.g., Wagner Group) would not count.<p></p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Question... | 2023-03-01 | Before 1 March 2023, will Russia either officially announce the formal annexation of additional territory in Ukraine or send uniformed military forces into another country without its government's permission? | 2023-01-18 | [["2023-01-18", 0.0], ["2023-01-18", 0.0], ["2023-01-18", 0.0], ["2023-01-18", 0.0], ["2023-01-18", 0.0], ["2023-01-18", 0.0017], ["2023-01-18", 0.0029], ["2023-01-18", 0.0025], ["2023-01-19", 0.0022], ["2023-01-19", 0.004], ["2023-01-19", 0.0036], ["2023-01-19", 0.0033], ["2023-01-19", 0.0438], ["2023-01-19", 0.0414],... | ["http://gas.org/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-05-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1565 |
<p>The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VIX:IND" ta... | 2020-05-01 | Before 1 May 2020, will the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close below 15.00? | 2020-03-19 | [["2020-03-20", 0.5], ["2020-03-20", 0.345], ["2020-03-20", 0.19], ["2020-03-20", 0.095], ["2020-03-20", 0.0], ["2020-03-20", 0.0], ["2020-03-20", 0.0], ["2020-03-20", 0.005], ["2020-03-20", 0.01], ["2020-03-20", 0.005], ["2020-03-20", 0.0], ["2020-03-21", 0.0], ["2020-03-21", 0.0], ["2020-03-21", 0.0], ["2020-03-21", ... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-08-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2291 |
<p>Russia has seen widespread protests in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-europe-arrests-moscow-cf5dda5528937de907f8916820cfab75" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/25/muscovites-come-out-to-protest-the-war... | 2022-08-05 | Between 4 February 2022 and 4 August 2022, will anti-government protests in Russia result in ten or more fatalities? | 2022-03-03 | [["2022-03-04", 0.875], ["2022-03-04", 0.45], ["2022-03-04", 0.21], ["2022-03-04", 0.6], ["2022-03-04", 0.6], ["2022-03-04", 0.6], ["2022-03-04", 0.6], ["2022-03-04", 0.555], ["2022-03-04", 0.505], ["2022-03-04", 0.51], ["2022-03-04", 0.51], ["2022-03-04", 0.51], ["2022-03-04", 0.5], ["2022-03-05", 0.5], ["2022-03-05",... | ["https://www.dw.com/en/russian-activists-defy-putin-to-protest-war-in-ukraine/a-61073902", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/26/russia-protests-dissent-activists-skochilenko/", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putins-new-police-state", "https://www.csis.org/analysis/strangling-bear-sancti... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-08-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2765 |
<p>The Winds of Winter is the planned sixth novel in George R. R. Martin's "A Song of Ice and Fire" fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones (<a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones" target="_blank">Rotten Tomatoes</a>). There have been rumors that it could be released in 2023, though... | 2023-08-01 | Before 1 August 2023, will a US release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? | 2023-02-17 | [["2023-02-17", 0.15], ["2023-02-17", 0.115], ["2023-02-17", 0.11], ["2023-02-18", 0.3075], ["2023-02-18", 0.346], ["2023-02-18", 0.3333], ["2023-02-18", 0.3], ["2023-02-18", 0.2725], ["2023-02-18", 0.2713], ["2023-02-19", 0.2411], ["2023-02-19", 0.217], ["2023-02-19", 0.2018], ["2023-02-20", 0.2183], ["2023-02-20", 0.... | ["https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2023/02/19/this-that-tother-thing/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#Dichotomy_paradox", "https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/george-r-r-martin-winds-of-winter-finished-1235249037/", "https://theweek.com/feature/briefing/1022767/a-complete-timeline-of-geo... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831 |
<p>In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC (<a href="https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&am... | 2021-03-01 | Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan? | 2020-11-09 | [["2020-11-10", 0.11], ["2020-11-10", 0.07], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.04], ["2020-11-11", 0.04], ["2020-11-11", 0.025], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.025], ["2020-11-11", 0.025], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-11-11", 0.01], ["2020-1... | ["https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7102519/", "https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/12/china-lending-fact-of-the-day.html", "https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/washingtons-backyard-the-caribbean-amid-sino-american-competition/", "https://bbc.in/3sgME4C", "https://bit.ly/3oa0R0X", "https://www... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-04-04 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2104 |
<p>Sir Keir was elected to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the UK's Labour Party in April 2020 and has faced dissention within his party's ranks (<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/labour-leadership-sir-keir-starmer-wins-contest-to-succeed-jeremy-corbyn-11968442" target="_blank">Sky News</a>, <a href="htt... | 2022-04-04 | Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022? | 2021-08-19 | [["2021-08-20", 0.33], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.225], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.32], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-21", 0.225], ["2021-08... | ["https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lisa-nandy-labour-leadership-starmer-b1926396.html", "https://theconversation.com/labour-party-conference-the-dispute-around-rule-changes-explained-in-brief-168740", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-5870068", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/20/wi... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2544 |
<p>The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-military-tracks-china-drone-uav-air-defense-iden... | 2023-03-15 | Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 15 March 2023? | 2022-09-09 | [["2022-09-09", 0.1], ["2022-09-09", 0.055], ["2022-09-09", 0.1533], ["2022-09-09", 0.365], ["2022-09-09", 0.316], ["2022-09-09", 0.28], ["2022-09-09", 0.2543], ["2022-09-09", 0.3475], ["2022-09-09", 0.31], ["2022-09-09", 0.369], ["2022-09-09", 0.3518], ["2022-09-09", 0.3933], ["2022-09-10", 0.3838], ["2022-09-10", 0.4... | ["https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4000912?ln=en", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-will-focus-on-preparing-for-war-xi-jinping-declares/ar-AA13RBoR", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/10/world/asia/china-taiwan-drones.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64094261", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/wor... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2636 |
<p>SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as December 2022, though obstacles remain (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/new-spacecraft-and-missions-to-watch-in-2023" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/science/space/starship-coul... | 2023-03-01 | Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 March 2023? | 2022-11-18 | [["2022-11-18", 1.0], ["2022-11-18", 0.8575], ["2022-11-18", 0.8633], ["2022-11-19", 0.8025], ["2022-11-19", 0.798], ["2022-11-19", 0.745], ["2022-11-19", 0.7031], ["2022-11-19", 0.6633], ["2022-11-19", 0.6588], ["2022-11-19", 0.65], ["2022-11-19", 0.6405], ["2022-11-19", 0.63], ["2022-11-19", 0.6052], ["2022-11-19", 0... | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy#:~:text=The%20planning%20fallacy%20is%20a,and%20underestimate%20the%20time%20needed", "https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/01/spacex-may-perform-a-wet-dress-rehearsal-of-its-starship-launch-system-today/", "https://www.cnet.com/science/space/elon-musk-updates-timeline-f... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832 |
<p>In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/south-east-asian-countries-are-trapped-between-two-superpowers" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/fe... | 2021-03-01 | Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021? | 2020-11-09 | [["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.15], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.15], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.075], ["2020-11-10", 0.05], ["2020-11-10", 0.075], ["2020-11-11", 0.035], ["2020-11-11", 0.035], ["2020-11-11", 0.02], ["2020-... | ["https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3111204/south-china-sea-beijing-doesnt-want-upset-neighbours-air", "https://news.usni.org/2020/12/22/report-on-u-s-china-competition-in-east-south-china-sea-4", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1211237", "http://www.scspi.org/en/dtfx/why-there-no-south-china-sea-air-de... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1982 |
<p>Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests that are widening rifts between Hong Kong and China (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-army-hongkong/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/... | 2022-01-03 | Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers? | 2021-04-09 | [["2021-04-23", 0.11], ["2021-04-23", 0.105], ["2021-04-23", 0.11], ["2021-04-23", 0.155], ["2021-04-23", 0.11], ["2021-04-23", 0.105], ["2021-04-23", 0.1], ["2021-04-23", 0.09], ["2021-04-23", 0.08], ["2021-04-23", 0.065], ["2021-04-23", 0.05], ["2021-04-23", 0.05], ["2021-04-23", 0.05], ["2021-04-23", 0.05], ["2021-0... | ["https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/hong-kong-waiter-sentenced-to-nine-years-in-jail-under-security-law-20210730-p58ef3.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1267989", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56264117", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Hong_Kong_legislative_election", "https://en.wikipedia.org/w... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-02-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2519 |
<p>After the FBI searched former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago home in August 2022, threats against federal law enforcement have increased (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/08/09/1116575413/mar-a-lago-fbi-raid-trump-search" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/fbi-dhs-w... | 2023-02-01 | Before 1 February 2023, will there be an attack on a federal facility in the US resulting in at least ten fatalities? | 2022-08-18 | [["2022-08-19", 0.0], ["2022-08-19", 0.005], ["2022-08-19", 0.0167], ["2022-08-19", 0.0575], ["2022-08-19", 0.058], ["2022-08-19", 0.0508], ["2022-08-20", 0.0621], ["2022-08-20", 0.055], ["2022-08-20", 0.0522], ["2022-08-20", 0.0505], ["2022-08-20", 0.0552], ["2022-08-20", 0.0573], ["2022-08-20", 0.0596], ["2022-08-20"... | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/us/who-died-in-capitol-building-attack.html", "https://mobile.twitter.com/KerryPicket/status/1570191433990021120", "https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/IncidentSummary.aspx?gtdid=200911060002", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2514-between-12-august-2022-and-18-february-2023-will-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2498 |
<p>On 23 June 2022, US Sens. Rob Portman and Gary Peters introduced a bill entitled the "Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act of 2022," which would require the president to establish an interagency committee on catastrophic risk (<a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/4488" target="_... | 2023-03-17 | Will federal legislation providing for the establishment of a US interagency committee on global catastrophic risk become law before 1 January 2023? | 2022-07-28 | [["2022-07-29", 1.0], ["2022-07-29", 1.0], ["2022-07-30", 0.78], ["2022-07-31", 0.76], ["2022-07-31", 0.778], ["2022-08-01", 0.802], ["2022-08-01", 0.82], ["2022-08-01", 0.85], ["2022-08-01", 0.7714285714285715], ["2022-08-02", 0.75625], ["2022-08-02", 0.7611111111111111], ["2022-08-03", 0.687], ["2022-08-03", 0.687], ... | ["https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/nov/01/huge-planet-killer-asteroid-discovered-and-its-heading-our-way", "https://republicans-oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Pry-Statement-5-13-EMP.pdf", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/4488/all-actions", "https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/s... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-06-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2374 |
<p>Continued political turmoil in Israel has raised the prospect of an early dissolution of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament (<a href="https://www.axios.com/israeli-government-coalition-collapse-21df1f2e-3f52-4369-b426-31d9a995d2bc.html" target="_blank">Axios</a>, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/mk-smot... | 2022-06-30 | Before 9 July 2022, will the Israeli Knesset vote to dissolve itself? | 2022-04-29 | [["2022-04-29", 0.86], ["2022-04-29", 0.635], ["2022-04-29", 0.685], ["2022-04-29", 0.69], ["2022-04-29", 0.52], ["2022-04-29", 0.27], ["2022-04-30", 0.5], ["2022-04-30", 0.52], ["2022-04-30", 0.53], ["2022-04-30", 0.275], ["2022-04-30", 0.16], ["2022-04-30", 0.305], ["2022-04-30", 0.16], ["2022-04-30", 0.13], ["2022-0... | ["https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-the-knesset-is-set-to-dissolve-israelis-will-return-to-the-polls-on-march-23-1.9393361", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-709415", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/moving-kahana-back-to-the-knesset-is-bennetts-attempt-to-circle-the-wagons/", "https://www.... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-09-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2009 |
<p>The high cost of lumber is impacting housing prices in the US, and the approximately 9% punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber only adds pressure to the market (<a href="http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/05072021_lumber_prices.asp" target="_blank">Mortgage News Daily</a>, <a href="https://www.... | 2021-09-01 | Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021? | 2021-05-14 | [["2021-05-14", 1.0], ["2021-05-14", 0.575], ["2021-05-14", 1.0], ["2021-05-14", 1.0], ["2021-05-14", 1.0], ["2021-05-14", 0.8], ["2021-05-14", 0.95], ["2021-05-15", 0.975], ["2021-05-15", 0.95], ["2021-05-15", 0.775], ["2021-05-16", 0.6], ["2021-05-16", 0.775], ["2021-05-16", 0.69], ["2021-05-16", 0.64], ["2021-05-16"... | ["https://www.statista.com/statistics/240991/average-sales-prices-of-new-homes-sold-in-the-us/", "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-trade/2021/05/24/china-bill-amendment-targets-seafood-slavery-795483", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-19/u-s-court-drops-trade-duty-reviews-as-lumber-dispute-ro... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-06-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2663 |
<p>The Bank of Canada, the country's central bank, sets a target interest rate for overnight lending to banks that influences interest rates, including the prime rate, throughout the Canadian economy (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/canadian-overnight-money-market-rate.asp" target="_blank">Inv... | 2023-06-08 | Will the Bank of Canada's policy interest rate target exceed 4.75% before 8 June 2023? | 2022-12-08 | [["2022-12-09", 0.33], ["2022-12-09", 0.3], ["2022-12-09", 0.3667], ["2022-12-09", 0.4], ["2022-12-10", 0.52], ["2022-12-10", 0.4333], ["2022-12-10", 0.4257], ["2022-12-10", 0.3975], ["2022-12-10", 0.3956], ["2022-12-10", 0.375], ["2022-12-10", 0.3682], ["2022-12-10", 0.3583], ["2022-12-11", 0.3615], ["2022-12-11", 0.4... | ["http://view.website.rbc.com/?qs=29bda0cf352f71a8de8a7e0cb686930990b775bc0fd737e60b068ba63f6761cc590f6c740c0b80a47e440d3ccb67b24ed7bc357acc6ab0cc31d1404f4719e97ae1a8068fe2b1c159edfadd007ef2f6b5", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-annual-inflation-rate-rises-44-april-2023-05-16/", "https://think.ing.com/a... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-08-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1713 | <p>The FA Cup is "the most famous domestic cup competition in the world" (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/53420073" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.thefa.com/competitions/thefacup/" target="_blank">The FA</a>). The soccer/football final is scheduled for 1 August 2020 in the UK between Arsen... | 2020-08-01 | Will the FA Cup be decided with a penalty shootout? | 2020-07-24 | [["2020-07-24", 0.0], ["2020-07-24", 0.045], ["2020-07-24", 0.05], ["2020-07-24", 0.025], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.01], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.015], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.02], ["2020-07-24", 0.035], ["2020-07-24", 0.05], ["2020-07-24", 0.05], ["2020-07-25", 0.095], ["2020-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894 |
<p>An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a h... | 2021-10-01 | Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? | 2021-01-07 | [["2021-01-08", 0.5], ["2021-01-08", 0.33], ["2021-01-08", 0.455], ["2021-01-08", 0.95], ["2021-01-09", 0.95], ["2021-01-09", 0.95], ["2021-01-09", 0.9], ["2021-01-09", 0.9], ["2021-01-10", 0.9], ["2021-01-10", 0.9], ["2021-01-10", 0.825], ["2021-01-10", 0.75], ["2021-01-10", 0.705], ["2021-01-10", 0.68], ["2021-01-10"... | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retail,_Wholesale_and_Department_Store_Union", "https://www.siliconrepublic.com/companies/amazon-alabama-union-vote", "https://t.co/5Sh9NgMVIO?amp=1", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/technology/amazon-unions-virginia.html", "https://newrepublic.com/article/161524/biden-support-amazon... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-04-26 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918 |
<p>Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.bar... | 2021-05-05 | Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled? | 2021-01-29 | [["2021-01-29", 0.75], ["2021-01-29", 0.705], ["2021-01-29", 0.75], ["2021-01-29", 0.75], ["2021-01-29", 0.75], ["2021-01-30", 0.775], ["2021-01-30", 0.8], ["2021-01-30", 0.8], ["2021-01-30", 0.8], ["2021-01-30", 0.8], ["2021-01-31", 0.86], ["2021-01-31", 0.8], ["2021-01-31", 0.86], ["2021-01-31", 0.8], ["2021-01-31", ... | ["https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19", "https://apnews.com/article/travel-politics-africa-chad-ff9e3eaf4ed7398d61c7d260f5abbcce", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-o... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-06-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2671 |
<p>After President Biden announced in August 2022 his plan to forgive up to $20,000 of federal student loan debt, various groups filed lawsuits to stop it, including the states of Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, and South Carolina (Respondents) (<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/... | 2023-06-30 | In Biden v. Nebraska, will the Supreme Court rule that any of the Respondents in the case has Article III standing to challenge the Biden administration's student loan forgiveness program? | 2022-12-16 | [["2022-12-16", 0.4], ["2022-12-16", 0.2], ["2022-12-16", 0.4667], ["2022-12-16", 0.45], ["2022-12-16", 0.56], ["2022-12-16", 0.56], ["2022-12-17", 0.5667], ["2022-12-17", 0.5857], ["2022-12-18", 0.5638], ["2022-12-18", 0.5622], ["2022-12-18", 0.561], ["2022-12-18", 0.5918], ["2022-12-18", 0.6008], ["2022-12-19", 0.62]... | ["https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-poll-that-ended-dilbert/id1077418457?i=1000603057166", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/02/28/supreme-court-biden-student-loan-forgiveness-arguments-live-updates/11326563002/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/25/us/politics/trump-border-wall-lawsuit.html", ... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1787 |
<p>Protests over Ouattara's eligibility to run for re-election have plagued Ivory Coast (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ivorycoast-politics-idAFL8N2GB4HU" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/protests-president-ouattara-term-bid-turn-violent-200914173219454.html" ... | 2021-01-02 | Before 1 January 2021, will Alassane Ouattara cease to be the president of Ivory Coast? | 2020-09-17 | [["2020-09-18", 0.25], ["2020-09-18", 0.125], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.0], ["2020-09-18", 0.005], ["2020-09-18", 0.01], ["2020-09-18", 0.01], ["2020-09-18", 0.005], ["2020-09-18", 0.01], ["2020-09-18", 0.005], ["2020-09-19", 0.0], ["2020-09-19", 0.005], ["2020-09-19", 0.01], ["2020-09-... | ["https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/warfare-evolved-quantum-radar/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-06-04 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2761 |
<p>Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's party, Morena, hopes to add the State of Mexico to its list of governorships when voters go to the polls on 4 June 2023 (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/parts-of-latin-america-will-shift-to-the-right-in-2023" target="_blank">Economis... | 2023-06-05 | Will the Morena party candidate win the 2023 gubernatorial election in Mexico state (Estado de México)? | 2023-02-10 | [["2023-02-10", 0.51], ["2023-02-11", 0.53], ["2023-02-11", 0.52], ["2023-02-11", 0.45], ["2023-02-11", 0.43], ["2023-02-11", 0.4417], ["2023-02-12", 0.4571], ["2023-02-12", 0.4625], ["2023-02-12", 0.465], ["2023-02-13", 0.4633], ["2023-02-13", 0.477], ["2023-02-13", 0.4336], ["2023-02-13", 0.4355], ["2023-02-13", 0.48... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1989 |
<p>ASML is a Dutch company which leads in the development and manufacturing of UV lithography systems (<a href="https://www.asml.com/en" target="_blank">ASML.com</a>). It currently controls the supply of Extreme Ultraviolet lithography systems, used in the manufacturing of cutting edge computer processor chips (<... | 2022-01-03 | Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China? | 2021-04-16 | [["2021-04-16", 0.0], ["2021-04-16", 0.005], ["2021-04-16", 0.01], ["2021-04-17", 0.005], ["2021-04-17", 0.0], ["2021-04-17", 0.005], ["2021-04-17", 0.0], ["2021-04-17", 0.0], ["2021-04-17", 0.0], ["2021-04-17", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0], ["2021-04-18", 0.0... | ["https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2019-08/Report_US-China_stand-off.pdf", "https://thediplomat.com/2019/10/europes-next-move-and-the-us-china-standoff/", "https://www.clingendael.org/publication/dealing-china-high-tech-issues", "https://hcss.nl/news/door-eindhovense-chips-zit-nederland-klem-tussen-china... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-09-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1973 |
<p>A series of rape and sexual assault allegations has hit the Australian Parliament (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-23/scott-morrison-missteps-fuel-frustration-within-the-coalition/100022234" target="_blank">ABC Australia</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/23/australi... | 2021-09-01 | Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021? | 2021-04-01 | [["2021-04-02", 1.0], ["2021-04-02", 0.505], ["2021-04-02", 0.15], ["2021-04-02", 0.125], ["2021-04-02", 0.1], ["2021-04-02", 0.125], ["2021-04-02", 0.1], ["2021-04-02", 0.1], ["2021-04-02", 0.1], ["2021-04-02", 0.075], ["2021-04-02", 0.1], ["2021-04-02", 0.075], ["2021-04-03", 0.05], ["2021-04-03", 0.05], ["2021-04-03... | ["https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-22/barnaby-joyce-return-creates-problems-for-scott-morrison/100230758", "https://antonygreen.com.au/when-can-the-next-federal-election-be-held/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Australian_federal_election", "https://bit.ly/3xj2UnT", "https://www.gjopen.... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-05-06 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861 |
<p>The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/... | 2021-05-07 | Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero? | 2020-12-11 | [["2020-12-11", 1.0], ["2020-12-11", 0.5], ["2020-12-11", 0.15], ["2020-12-11", 0.075], ["2020-12-11", 0.11], ["2020-12-11", 0.08], ["2020-12-11", 0.05], ["2020-12-11", 0.025], ["2020-12-12", 0.05], ["2020-12-12", 0.08], ["2020-12-12", 0.05], ["2020-12-12", 0.05], ["2020-12-12", 0.05], ["2020-12-12", 0.05], ["2020-12-1... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-10-12 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1682 |
<p>The National Basketball Association (NBA), which announced the suspension of the 2019-20 season on 11 March 2020 due to COVID-19, is planning to restart in late July 2020 (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-nba-has-a-plan-to-restart-the-season-11591207131" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a hre... | 2020-10-12 | Will an NBA Finals series decide a 2020 NBA Champion before 15 October 2020? | 2020-07-03 | [["2020-07-03", 0.43], ["2020-07-03", 0.69], ["2020-07-03", 0.43], ["2020-07-03", 0.215], ["2020-07-03", 0.43], ["2020-07-03", 0.29], ["2020-07-03", 0.43], ["2020-07-03", 0.29], ["2020-07-04", 0.28], ["2020-07-04", 0.355], ["2020-07-04", 0.305], ["2020-07-04", 0.305], ["2020-07-04", 0.305], ["2020-07-04", 0.415], ["202... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2160 |
<p>Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post (<a href="https://www.theverge.com/21273768/section-230-explained-internet-speech-law-definition-guide-free-moderation" target="_blank">The Verge</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-section-2... | 2022-10-02 | Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 1 October 2022? | 2021-10-15 | [["2021-10-15", 1.0], ["2021-10-15", 0.65], ["2021-10-15", 0.5433333333333333], ["2021-10-16", 0.415], ["2021-10-16", 0.522], ["2021-10-17", 0.405], ["2021-10-17", 0.45], ["2021-10-17", 0.485], ["2021-10-18", 0.534], ["2021-10-18", 0.488], ["2021-10-18", 0.453], ["2021-10-18", 0.349], ["2021-10-19", 0.275], ["2021-10-1... | ["https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8612?r=42&s=1", "https://www.cbs58.com/news/a-controversial-bill-to-protect-kids-online-just-advanced-in-the-senate-heres-what-you-should-know", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/2972/text", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congre... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-05-28 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2378 |
<p>The US saw a rise in COVID cases in April 2022 (<a href="https://www.axios.com/covid-cases-rise-across-bulk-of-the-us-1c5e8d29-d1c5-45eb-9678-85dc7ab863eb.html" target="_blank">Axios</a>). The question will be suspended on 27 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CDC (<a href="https... | 2022-05-31 | Between 2 May 2022 and 27 May 2022, will the 7-day moving average of new daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reach or exceed 120,000? | 2022-04-29 | [["2022-04-29", 0.0], ["2022-04-30", 0.5], ["2022-04-30", 0.0], ["2022-04-30", 0.14], ["2022-04-30", 0.0], ["2022-04-30", 0.14], ["2022-04-30", 0.0], ["2022-05-01", 0.14], ["2022-05-01", 0.0], ["2022-05-01", 0.025], ["2022-05-01", 0.0], ["2022-05-01", 0.0], ["2022-05-01", 0.0], ["2022-05-01", 0.025], ["2022-05-01", 0.0... | ["https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/01/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s", "https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1449899", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1448537", "https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countr... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864 |
<p>The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones (<a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones" target="_blank">Rotten Tomatoes</a>). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the p... | 2022-01-03 | Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? | 2020-12-11 | [["2020-12-11", 0.33], ["2020-12-11", 0.365], ["2020-12-11", 0.4], ["2020-12-11", 0.575], ["2020-12-12", 0.75], ["2020-12-12", 0.575], ["2020-12-12", 0.4], ["2020-12-12", 0.575], ["2020-12-13", 0.56], ["2020-12-13", 0.555], ["2020-12-13", 0.55], ["2020-12-13", 0.475], ["2020-12-14", 0.51], ["2020-12-14", 0.55], ["2020-... | ["https://www.polygon.com/game-of-thrones/2021/1/21/22242930/hbo-game-of-thrones-series-dunk-and-egg-george-r-r-martin", "https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2021/02/02/reflections-on-a-bad-year/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter", "https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/tag/writing/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wi... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620 |
<div>Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations (<a href="https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen" target="_blank">European Automobile Manufacturers Associa... | 2023-01-18 | Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles? | 2020-05-15 | [["2020-05-15", 0.0], ["2020-05-15", 0.065], ["2020-05-15", 0.0], ["2020-05-15", 0.065], ["2020-05-15", 0.13], ["2020-05-15", 0.065], ["2020-05-15", 0.1], ["2020-05-15", 0.055], ["2020-05-15", 0.1], ["2020-05-16", 0.115], ["2020-05-16", 0.175], ["2020-05-16", 0.285], ["2020-05-16", 0.375], ["2020-05-16", 0.285], ["2020... | ["https://teknikensvarld.se/nyheter/miljo-och-teknik/eu-hotar-med-tuffare-regler-for-laddhybrider-redan-2025/", "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/average-co2-emissions-new-light-duty-vehicles-registered-europe-2019_en", "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en", "https://www.euractiv.com/sec... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-08-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2064 |
<p>On 24 June 2021, the CDC extended its nationwide eviction moratorium through 31 July 2021 (<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0624-eviction-moratorium.html" target="_blank">CDC</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/24/1009828802/cdc-extends-eviction-moratorium-for-30-days" target="_blank">NP... | 2021-08-02 | Before 1 August 2021, will legislation authorizing or enabling an extension or replacement of the CDC's nationwide eviction moratorium past 31 July 2021 become law? | 2021-07-02 | [["2021-07-02", 0.0], ["2021-07-02", 0.5], ["2021-07-02", 0.0], ["2021-07-02", 0.0], ["2021-07-02", 0.005], ["2021-07-02", 0.01], ["2021-07-02", 0.34], ["2021-07-02", 0.01], ["2021-07-03", 0.01], ["2021-07-03", 0.01], ["2021-07-03", 0.01], ["2021-07-03", 0.01], ["2021-07-03", 0.02], ["2021-07-03", 0.03], ["2021-07-03",... | ["https://www.npr.org/2021/06/24/1009828802/cdc-extends-eviction-moratorium-for-30-days", "https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0624-eviction-moratorium.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/us/politics/eviction-moratorium-biden-congress.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage", "https://www... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-08-20 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2395 |
<p>The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-58790419" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a hre... | 2022-08-21 | Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 20 August 2022? | 2022-05-20 | [["2022-05-20", 0.0], ["2022-05-20", 0.025], ["2022-05-20", 0.02], ["2022-05-20", 0.265], ["2022-05-20", 0.222], ["2022-05-20", 0.21], ["2022-05-20", 0.22285714285714286], ["2022-05-20", 0.21375], ["2022-05-20", 0.19], ["2022-05-21", 0.251], ["2022-05-21", 0.25], ["2022-05-21", 0.264], ["2022-05-21", 0.259], ["2022-05-... | ["https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_22_3698", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Protocol", "https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/27/boris-johnson-northern-ireland-protocol-bill-vote-brexit", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/07/truss-sunak-contest-leaves-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2598 |
<p>Twelve labor unions and dozens of railroad companies have been negotiating for new collective bargaining agreements since 2019, and there is a threat of strikes unless agreements are reached (<a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/24/railroad-worker-possible-strike-sick-leave" target="_blank">Axios</a>, ... | 2023-01-01 | Will there be a railroad union strike in the United States in 2022? | 2022-10-27 | [["2022-10-28", 0.1], ["2022-10-28", 0.075], ["2022-10-28", 0.05], ["2022-10-28", 0.0875], ["2022-10-28", 0.09], ["2022-10-28", 0.2417], ["2022-10-28", 0.2957], ["2022-10-28", 0.2588], ["2022-10-28", 0.2856], ["2022-10-29", 0.324], ["2022-10-29", 0.3173], ["2022-10-29", 0.3155], ["2022-10-29", 0.3164], ["2022-10-29", 0... | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/business/railroad-workers-strike-threat.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20221028&instance_id=76015&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=77825025&segment_id=111441&user_id=dc6933c94fc82416d25dd297622374d1", "https://www.inddist.com/logistics/news/22552162/another-union-r... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652 |
<p>Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/" t... | 2021-04-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021? | 2020-06-12 | [["2020-06-12", 0.3], ["2020-06-12", 0.14], ["2020-06-12", 0.15], ["2020-06-12", 0.055], ["2020-06-12", 0.055], ["2020-06-12", 0.04], ["2020-06-12", 0.04], ["2020-06-13", 0.03], ["2020-06-13", 0.03], ["2020-06-13", 0.04], ["2020-06-13", 0.03], ["2020-06-13", 0.05], ["2020-06-13", 0.05], ["2020-06-13", 0.06], ["2020-06-... | ["https://www.manilatimes.net/2021/03/22/news/200-chinese-ships-mass-at-west-ph-sea-reef/854085/", "https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/03/28/21/china-announces-further-military-exercises-in-disputed-south-china-sea", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/09/asia/us-navy-two-aircraft-carriers-south-china-sea-ml/index.html", "http... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-11-20 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2054 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the NZ Ministry of Health for "second doses administered" (<a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data" target="_blank">NZ Ministr... | 2021-11-21 | Will at least 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021? | 2021-06-25 | [["2021-06-25", 1.0], ["2021-06-25", 1.0], ["2021-06-26", 1.0], ["2021-06-26", 0.6], ["2021-06-26", 0.58], ["2021-06-26", 0.49], ["2021-06-26", 0.45], ["2021-06-26", 0.515], ["2021-06-26", 0.58], ["2021-06-26", 0.515], ["2021-06-26", 0.56], ["2021-06-26", 0.57], ["2021-06-27", 0.58], ["2021-06-27", 0.59], ["2021-06-27"... | ["https://abcnews.go.com/Health/millions-missing-2nd-vaccine-dose-rounds-cdc/story?id=77300383", "https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends_vacctrends-fully-cum", "https://cafebedouin.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/covid-nz-owid-vaccinations-2021-10-13.png", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/wor... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1607 |
<p>Speculation abounds as to the health and whereabouts of Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un (<a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/05/02/north-koreas-dictator-has-disappeared" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/happen-north-korea-kim-jong-un-died-100746225.html" target="_bl... | 2020-10-01 | Before 1 October 2020, will North Korea announce that it has a new head of state? | 2020-04-30 | [["2020-05-01", 0.35], ["2020-05-01", 0.325], ["2020-05-01", 0.35], ["2020-05-01", 0.35], ["2020-05-01", 0.325], ["2020-05-01", 0.235], ["2020-05-01", 0.29], ["2020-05-01", 0.18], ["2020-05-01", 0.21], ["2020-05-01", 0.36], ["2020-05-01", 0.1], ["2020-05-01", 0.075], ["2020-05-01", 0.05], ["2020-05-02", 0.05], ["2020-0... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-05-06 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2384 |
<p>After China and the Solomon Islands signed a security agreement in April 2022, Australia and other countries are rushing to secure closer relations with other Oceania countries (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/30/the-china-solomons-security-deal-has-been-signed-time-to-move-on-f... | 2023-05-06 | Will Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) sign a bilateral defense treaty before 6 May 2023? | 2022-05-06 | [["2022-05-06", 0.875], ["2022-05-06", 0.9133333333333333], ["2022-05-06", 0.602], ["2022-05-07", 0.4942857142857143], ["2022-05-07", 0.5411111111111111], ["2022-05-07", 0.58], ["2022-05-07", 0.496], ["2022-05-07", 0.529], ["2022-05-08", 0.606], ["2022-05-08", 0.649], ["2022-05-09", 0.589], ["2022-05-10", 0.516], ["202... | ["https://png.embassy.gov.au/pmsb/defence.html", "https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/29th-australia-papua-new-guinea-ministerial-forum-joint-communique", "https://www.rfa.org/english/news/pacific/papua-new-guinea-china-04032023003207.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/p... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-02-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2103 |
<p>The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-what-is-the-northern-ireland-protocol-and-why-... | 2022-02-01 | Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022? | 2021-08-19 | [["2021-08-20", 0.6], ["2021-08-20", 0.775], ["2021-08-20", 0.8], ["2021-08-20", 0.7], ["2021-08-20", 0.875], ["2021-08-20", 0.8], ["2021-08-20", 0.7], ["2021-08-21", 0.6], ["2021-08-21", 0.45], ["2021-08-21", 0.3], ["2021-08-21", 0.35], ["2021-08-21", 0.35], ["2021-08-21", 0.4], ["2021-08-21", 0.36], ["2021-08-22", 0.... | ["https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-59198125", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59256153", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1353321", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2411-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-ice-us-dollar-index-on-16-september-2022", "https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/30/the-norther... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-05-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2883 |
Alberta voters are scheduled to vote on 29 May 2023 in what polls show is a tight race for control of the legislature amid widespread wildfires in the Canadian province (<a href="https://338canada.com/alberta/#som" target="_blank">388Canada</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/ucp-ndp-campaigns-u... | 2023-05-30 | Will the New Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2023 Alberta Legislative Assembly elections? | 2023-05-12 | [["2023-05-13", 0.98], ["2023-05-13", 0.99], ["2023-05-13", 0.7267], ["2023-05-13", 0.795], ["2023-05-13", 0.7925], ["2023-05-13", 0.79], ["2023-05-13", 0.672], ["2023-05-14", 0.65], ["2023-05-14", 0.6571], ["2023-05-14", 0.575], ["2023-05-15", 0.5611], ["2023-05-15", 0.553], ["2023-05-15", 0.555], ["2023-05-15", 0.554... | ["https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-politics-ndp-take-lead/", "https://www.elections.ab.ca/resources/statistics-research/elector-counts/", "https://twitter.com/338canada/status/1662826107949703170?s=46&t=T06RhYXyWXI7A7ETR5zqNw", "https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/polling-shows-most-competitive-election-as-alberta-campaigns-wr... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-03-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2245 |
<p>In early January, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) announced a new unionization vote for workers at an Amazon warehouse in Alabama, with ballots due by 25 March 2022 and counting scheduled for 28 March 2022 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/11/amazon-union-election-in-alabama-to-begin-in-february... | 2022-12-30 | Will employees at Amazon's Bessemer, Alabama, warehouse vote in the affirmative to unionize in their next scheduled election? | 2022-01-14 | [["2022-01-14", 0.5], ["2022-01-14", 0.4], ["2022-01-14", 0.3], ["2022-01-14", 0.4], ["2022-01-14", 0.3], ["2022-01-14", 0.3], ["2022-01-14", 0.3], ["2022-01-14", 0.3], ["2022-01-14", 0.3], ["2022-01-15", 0.3], ["2022-01-15", 0.3], ["2022-01-15", 0.275], ["2022-01-15", 0.275], ["2022-01-15", 0.25], ["2022-01-15", 0.235... | ["https://www.wbrc.com/2022/02/22/rwdsu-filing-unfair-labor-practice-charges-against-amazon-during-re-run-election/", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/feb/15/amazon-union-vote-workers-prepare", "https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-expected-to-win-union-vote-in-bessemer-warehouse-again-2022-3?r=US&IR=... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-08-16 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2071 |
<p>As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/12/us/politics/us-diplomats-afghanistan-taliban.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2021/07/08/bid... | 2021-08-16 | Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021? | 2021-07-16 | [["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.05], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.01], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-17", 0.0], ["2021-07-17", 0.0], ["2021-07-17", 0.01], ["2021-07-17", 0.01], ["2021-07-17", 0.02],... | ["https://twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/1426853588782010370", "https://af.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kabul-afghanistan-15/", "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/16/afghanistan-history-taliban-collapse-504977", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/aug/15/afghanistan-taliban-close-in-on... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2087 |
<p>After success for his party in June 2021 elections, Prime Minister Ahmed is facing a variety of challenges in different regions of the country, including Tigray (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/07/10/1015019374/ethiopias-ruling-party-wins-national-election-in-landslide" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="http... | 2022-01-01 | Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022? | 2021-07-30 | [["2021-07-30", 0.5], ["2021-07-30", 0.3], ["2021-07-30", 0.295], ["2021-07-30", 0.1], ["2021-07-31", 0.08], ["2021-07-31", 0.06], ["2021-07-31", 0.08], ["2021-07-31", 0.06], ["2021-07-31", 0.08], ["2021-07-31", 0.1], ["2021-07-31", 0.08], ["2021-07-31", 0.06], ["2021-08-01", 0.08], ["2021-08-01", 0.06], ["2021-08-01",... | ["https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2021/07/06/ethiopias-election-is-a-coronation-of-abiy-ahmed-before-the-polls/", "https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/plough-and-kalashnikov-ethiopia-after-tigray", "https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tigray-forces-withdraw-neighbouring-ethiopian-regions-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-04-27 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2803 |
<p>The EU was already facing a bevy of challenges to its economic health in the near term before bank failures in the US and collapse of Credit Suisse (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/ubs-buys-credit-suisse-in-rush-deal/" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/eu-eco... | 2023-05-02 | Will real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 be higher than it was in the fourth quarter of 2022? | 2023-03-21 | [["2023-03-22", 0.8], ["2023-03-22", 0.65], ["2023-03-22", 0.7333], ["2023-03-22", 0.7675], ["2023-03-22", 0.83], ["2023-03-22", 0.788], ["2023-03-22", 0.8233], ["2023-03-22", 0.7757], ["2023-03-23", 0.68], ["2023-03-23", 0.7156], ["2023-03-23", 0.743], ["2023-03-23", 0.7436], ["2023-03-23", 0.7025], ["2023-03-23", 0.6... | ["https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/bookmark/4eef75c1-4ab8-4e39-865e-6301e3390d28?lang=en", "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3888793/7242202/KS-TC-16-003-EN-N.pdf", "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/annex/ecb.projections202303_ecbstaff_annex.en.xlsx", "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-databa... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-11-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1495 |
<p>For more information on the the popular vote and the electoral college see: (<a href="http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/about.html" target="_blank">Archives.gov</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Splits_between_the_Electoral_College_and_popular_vote,">Ballotpedia</a>, <a href=... | 2020-11-10 | Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2020 United States presidential election also win the electoral college? | 2020-01-17 | [["2020-01-18", 0.98], ["2020-01-18", 0.84], ["2020-01-19", 0.85], ["2020-01-19", 0.81], ["2020-01-19", 0.77], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.775], ["2020-01-19", 0.8], ["2020-01-19", 0.8], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19", 0.75], ["2020-01-19... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-01-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1837 |
<p>As hopes for a "blue wave" in the 2020 U.S. elections did not materialize and Democrats have lost several net seats in the House of Representatives, speculation abounds as to whether Speaker Pelosi will continue on in the role (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/06/pelosi-seeks-another-2-years-as-s... | 2021-01-04 | Will Nancy Pelosi be re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives in the 117th Congress? | 2020-11-12 | [["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.85], ["2020-11-13", 0.825], ["2020-11-13", 0.825], ["2020-11-13", 0.805], ["2020-1... | ["https://www.npr.org/2020/11/18/935718252/pelosi-set-to-be-reelected-speaker-despite-house-losses", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/03/us/joe-biden-trump/the-new-congress-will-take-its-place-and-reelect-nancy-pelosi-as-speaker", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/02/new-congress-live-updates/", "ht... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2409 |
<p>War and conflict have left millions in Yemen facing potential famine (<a href="https://api.godocs.wfp.org/api/documents/a9a175311d8144a7b976d7742367b216/download/?_ga=2.160939381.977848004.1654011741-1453240455.1653409973" target="_blank">World Food Program - Yemen Emergency Dashboard March 2022</a>, <a href="... | 2023-04-01 | Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen before 1 April 2023? | 2022-06-03 | [["2022-06-03", 0.0], ["2022-06-03", 0.495], ["2022-06-03", 0.3333333333333333], ["2022-06-03", 0.475], ["2022-06-03", 0.4875], ["2022-06-03", 0.56], ["2022-06-03", 0.4683333333333333], ["2022-06-03", 0.46285714285714286], ["2022-06-03", 0.4642857142857143], ["2022-06-04", 0.43125], ["2022-06-04", 0.4677777777777778], ... | ["https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1155479/?iso3=YEM", "https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-suspends-participation-ukraine-grain-deal-after-massive-drone-attack-black-sea", "https://www.wfp.org/stories/wfp-and-fao-sound-alarm-global-food-crisis-tightens-its-grip-hunger-hotspots", ... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2100 |
<p>The future of Tunisia's democracy is uncertain after President Kais Saied invoked emergency powers, suspended parliament, and dismissed the prime minister (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tunisian-presidents-feud-with-party-elites-drove-him-seize-reins-power-2021-08-08/" target="_blank">Reuters</... | 2022-01-01 | Before 1 January 2022, will Kais Saied cease to be the president of Tunisia? | 2021-08-13 | [["2021-08-13", 1.0], ["2021-08-13", 0.5], ["2021-08-13", 0.22], ["2021-08-13", 0.135], ["2021-08-13", 0.05], ["2021-08-13", 0.135], ["2021-08-13", 0.1], ["2021-08-13", 0.075], ["2021-08-13", 0.05], ["2021-08-13", 0.05], ["2021-08-14", 0.045], ["2021-08-14", 0.04], ["2021-08-14", 0.04], ["2021-08-14", 0.045], ["2021-08... | ["https://english.alarabiya.net/News/north-africa/2021/08/20/Tunisian-President-Saied-announces-intention-to-form-new-government", "https://allafrica.com/stories/202109100274.html", "http://arabcenterdc.org/events/tunisias-constitutional-crisis-and-yearning-for-democracy-in-northwest-africa/", "https://www.albawaba.com... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935 |
<p>Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium (<a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoi... | 2022-01-01 | Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA? | 2021-02-12 | [["2021-02-12", 0.6], ["2021-02-12", 0.56], ["2021-02-12", 0.675], ["2021-02-12", 0.75], ["2021-02-12", 0.65], ["2021-02-13", 0.75], ["2021-02-13", 0.75], ["2021-02-13", 0.75], ["2021-02-13", 0.75], ["2021-02-14", 0.75], ["2021-02-14", 0.75], ["2021-02-14", 0.8], ["2021-02-14", 0.8], ["2021-02-15", 0.75], ["2021-02-15"... | ["https://shareok.org/bitstream/handle/11244/329592/2021_Fitzgerald_Jonathan_Thesis.docx", "https://www.eurasiareview.com/18102021-iran-to-resume-jcpoa-talks-next-week-says-lawmaker/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-fails-fully-honour-agreement-monitoring-equipment-iaea-says-2021-09-26/", "https://www.... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-05-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825 |
<p>Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position (<a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/" target="_blank">Middle East ... | 2021-05-01 | Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority? | 2020-11-06 | [["2020-11-06", 1.0], ["2020-11-06", 0.725], ["2020-11-06", 0.45], ["2020-11-06", 0.255], ["2020-11-07", 0.38], ["2020-11-07", 0.415], ["2020-11-07", 0.38], ["2020-11-07", 0.38], ["2020-11-07", 0.38], ["2020-11-07", 0.38], ["2020-11-07", 0.38], ["2020-11-07", 0.315], ["2020-11-08", 0.15], ["2020-11-08", 0.125], ["2020-... | ["https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/abbas-to-address-j-street-conference-in-bid-to-keep-palestinians-on-biden-s-agenda-1.9720346", "https://www.arabnews.com/node/1827836/middle-east", "https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/no-decision-yet-on-mahmoud--abbas-successor-1.727269", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/world/middleea... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764 |
<p>Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history (<a href="https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world" target="_blank">Montreal Gazette</a>, <a href="https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481... | 2022-01-03 | Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? | 2020-08-28 | [["2020-08-28", 0.4], ["2020-08-28", 0.525], ["2020-08-28", 0.5], ["2020-08-28", 0.29], ["2020-08-28", 0.275], ["2020-08-29", 0.275], ["2020-08-29", 0.25], ["2020-08-29", 0.15], ["2020-08-29", 0.08], ["2020-08-30", 0.1], ["2020-08-30", 0.1], ["2020-08-30", 0.1], ["2020-08-30", 0.1], ["2020-08-30", 0.1], ["2020-08-30", ... | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Olympic_%26_Paralympic_Committee#Relationship_between_IOC_and_USOPC", "https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1109127/united-states-beijing-2022-bill-boycott", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senators-propose-adding-boycott-chinas-winter-olympics-defense-bill-2021-10-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2702 |
<p>After declining steadily since August 2022, daily new cases of COVID-19 began to rise in December 2022 (<a href="https://www.wtvr.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-covid-community-levels-january-5-2022-where-masks-are-recommended-virginia" target="_blank">WTVR</a>). The outcome will be determined using data as reported... | 2023-03-16 | Will the New York Times report more than 8,000 new cases of COVID-19 in Virginia for a single day between 10 January 2023 and 15 March 2023? | 2023-01-10 | [["2023-01-10", 0.37], ["2023-01-10", 0.51], ["2023-01-10", 0.4567], ["2023-01-11", 0.5175], ["2023-01-11", 0.432], ["2023-01-11", 0.525], ["2023-01-11", 0.5214], ["2023-01-11", 0.4613], ["2023-01-11", 0.49], ["2023-01-12", 0.472], ["2023-01-12", 0.52], ["2023-01-12", 0.5082], ["2023-01-12", 0.4992], ["2023-01-13", 0.4... | ["https://www-economist-com.nduezproxy.idm.oclc.org/finance-and-economics/2023/02/05/chinas-ultra-fast-economic-recovery", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/dr-leana-wen-slammed-after-admitting-theres-been-overcounting-of-covid-deaths-two-and-a-half-years-late/ar-AA16lw5r", "https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-track... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-12-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2525 |
<p>The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-53724381" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https:... | 2022-12-01 | Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 December 2022? | 2022-08-26 | [["2022-08-26", 1.0], ["2022-08-26", 0.5], ["2022-08-26", 0.5], ["2022-08-26", 0.375], ["2022-08-26", 0.48], ["2022-08-27", 0.485], ["2022-08-27", 0.4814], ["2022-08-27", 0.44], ["2022-08-27", 0.4189], ["2022-08-28", 0.4167], ["2022-08-28", 0.38], ["2022-08-28", 0.37], ["2022-08-28", 0.3709], ["2022-08-28", 0.3633], ["... | ["https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/26/liz-truss-may-trigger-article-16-days-after-becoming-pm-amid-brexit-row", "https://www.ft.com/content/24b72bdc-7bda-4248-9708-7cbc3a4680a7", "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-63138010.amp", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Protocol_Bill", "ht... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2011 |
<p>On 5 May 2021, Facebook’s Oversight Board upheld a January decision to keep Donald Trump from posting content on his Facebook page and Instagram account, but criticized the current state of Facebook regulations as to content rules and gave the company six months to review those rules (<a href="https://oversigh... | 2022-01-10 | Before 8 January 2022, will Facebook allow Donald Trump to post on Facebook and/or Instagram from any of his verified accounts? | 2021-05-14 | [["2021-05-14", 0.0], ["2021-05-14", 0.4], ["2021-05-14", 0.8], ["2021-05-14", 0.405], ["2021-05-14", 0.8], ["2021-05-14", 0.405], ["2021-05-14", 0.05], ["2021-05-14", 0.03], ["2021-05-14", 0.05], ["2021-05-14", 0.325], ["2021-05-14", 0.6], ["2021-05-15", 0.33], ["2021-05-15", 0.1], ["2021-05-15", 0.3], ["2021-05-15", ... | ["https://about.fb.com/news/2021/06/facebook-response-to-oversight-board-recommendations-trump/", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/02/donald-trump-asks-florida-judge-to-force-twitter-to-reinstate-account", "https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/3/22474738/facebook-ending-political-figure-exemption-moderation-pol... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1658 |
<p>Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs (<a href="https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R4598... | 2021-01-04 | Will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law before 1 January 2021? | 2020-06-15 | [["2020-06-16", 0.0], ["2020-06-16", 0.4], ["2020-06-16", 0.3], ["2020-06-16", 0.225], ["2020-06-16", 0.25], ["2020-06-16", 0.2], ["2020-06-16", 0.25], ["2020-06-16", 0.2], ["2020-06-16", 0.15], ["2020-06-16", 0.125], ["2020-06-16", 0.17], ["2020-06-16", 0.125], ["2020-06-16", 0.075], ["2020-06-16", 0.05], ["2020-06-16... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-01-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2675 |
<p>Amid continuing concerns that TikTok could be used by the Chinese government to spy on Americans, a bill was introduced in Congress that would effectively ban the app from being used in the US (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-12-13/u-s-lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bid-to-ban-chinas-t... | 2023-01-16 | Before 15 January 2023, will federal legislation that would force the social media app TikTok to cease operating in the US become law? | 2022-12-16 | [["2022-12-16", 0.0], ["2022-12-16", 0.0], ["2022-12-16", 0.0833], ["2022-12-16", 0.0625], ["2022-12-16", 0.05], ["2022-12-16", 0.05], ["2022-12-16", 0.0467], ["2022-12-16", 0.04], ["2022-12-17", 0.035], ["2022-12-17", 0.0311], ["2022-12-17", 0.028], ["2022-12-17", 0.0255], ["2022-12-17", 0.0275], ["2022-12-17", 0.0254... | ["https://youtu.be/PDSwTDGvqv0", "https://www.dexerto.com/entertainment/united-states-tiktok-app-ban-1966889/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bid-ban-chinas-tiktok-2022-12-13/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-fcc-bans-equipment-sales-imports-zte-huawei-over-nationa... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2164 |
<p>Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="... | 2022-07-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 July 2022? | 2021-10-19 | [["2021-10-20", 0.05], ["2021-10-20", 0.525], ["2021-10-20", 0.49], ["2021-10-20", 0.745], ["2021-10-20", 0.49], ["2021-10-20", 0.27], ["2021-10-20", 0.05], ["2021-10-20", 0.11], ["2021-10-20", 0.05], ["2021-10-20", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], ["2021-10-21", 0.05], ["2021-10... | ["https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2022/01/04/indian-trrops-hoist-tricolour-galwan-counters-china-claims.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/india-china-border-dispute-unlikely-to-end-anytime-soon-nirupama-rao.html", "https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1507353245878034437", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-05-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2298 |
<p>The question will be suspended on 30 April 2022 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (<a href="https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" target="_blank">FAO</a>, see table near bottom of page). The value for April 2021 was 122.1.<... | 2022-05-06 | Will the FAO Food Price Index for April 2022 reach or exceed 150.0? | 2022-03-09 | [["2022-03-15", 0.93], ["2022-03-15", 0.465], ["2022-03-15", 0.93], ["2022-03-15", 0.94], ["2022-03-15", 0.93], ["2022-03-15", 0.77], ["2022-03-15", 0.61], ["2022-03-15", 0.495], ["2022-03-15", 0.61], ["2022-03-15", 0.68], ["2022-03-15", 0.75], ["2022-03-15", 0.725], ["2022-03-15", 0.7], ["2022-03-15", 0.655], ["2022-0... | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/food-prices-hit-record-high-february-un-agency-says-2022-03-04/", "https://www.macrotrends.net/2534/wheat-prices-historical-chart-data", "https://www.investing.com/commodities/class-iii-milk-futures-historical-data", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1424240", "https://www.fao.org/worldfo... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-12-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2370 |
<p>After launching an ICBM for the first time since 2017, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-north-korea-fdb416abc13beb76fb719d3452f97828" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/31/politics/north-korea-undergro... | 2022-12-01 | Between 29 April 2022 and 30 November 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device? | 2022-04-29 | [["2022-04-29", 0.9066666666666666], ["2022-04-29", 0.71], ["2022-04-30", 0.5842857142857143], ["2022-04-30", 0.5825], ["2022-04-30", 0.445], ["2022-04-30", 0.392], ["2022-04-30", 0.411], ["2022-04-30", 0.445], ["2022-05-01", 0.469], ["2022-05-01", 0.439], ["2022-05-01", 0.362], ["2022-05-02", 0.358], ["2022-05-02", 0.... | ["https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221104001654325?section=nk/nk", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/leaked-documents-reveal-russia-s-plan-to-invade-japan/ss-AA14MbG4?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=3be662ac0472449f9795743e275dd4c0#image=2", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/23/north-korea-nuclear-test-asia-kim-j... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-05-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2615 |
<p>While various parties have called for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, the fighting continues (<a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/10/11/Turkey-calls-for-ceasefire-between-Ukraine-Russia-as-soon-as-possible-" target="_blank">Al Arabiya</a>, <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com... | 2023-05-05 | In the current conflict in Ukraine, will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before 5 May 2023? | 2022-11-04 | [["2022-11-04", 0.52], ["2022-11-04", 0.385], ["2022-11-04", 0.39], ["2022-11-04", 0.32], ["2022-11-05", 0.3113], ["2022-11-05", 0.3306], ["2022-11-05", 0.3185], ["2022-11-05", 0.3087], ["2022-11-05", 0.2777], ["2022-11-05", 0.2932], ["2022-11-05", 0.2955], ["2022-11-05", 0.2829], ["2022-11-05", 0.2947], ["2022-11-05",... | ["https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/03/russia-ukraine-war-pundits-history-international-relations/673293/", "https://tass.com/politics/1613127", "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/20/us/politics/biden-kyiv-ukraine.html", "https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/5628", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/regions/ukraine... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-06-18 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878 |
<p>The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="ht... | 2021-06-19 | Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00? | 2020-12-22 | [["2020-12-22", 0.56], ["2020-12-22", 0.11], ["2020-12-22", 0.16], ["2020-12-23", 0.11], ["2020-12-23", 0.095], ["2020-12-23", 0.05], ["2020-12-23", 0.05], ["2020-12-23", 0.09], ["2020-12-23", 0.1], ["2020-12-23", 0.1], ["2020-12-23", 0.1], ["2020-12-24", 0.1], ["2020-12-24", 0.1], ["2020-12-24", 0.1], ["2020-12-24", 0... | ["https://www.economist.com/big-mac-index", "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210423-turkey-seeks-arrest-of-missing-crypto-boss-over-huge-fraud", "https://www.euronews.com/2021/05/19/eu-turkey-relations-at-historic-low-point-meps-warn", "https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-lira/fitch-signals-possible-turkey-downgrade-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-06-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2799 |
<p>With the fallout from bank failures being felt throughout the financial system, borrowing costs for "high-yield" bonds (aka junk bonds) jumped in mid-March 2023 (<a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-03-13/u-s-credit-default-swaps-rise-on-worries-about-bank-failure-contagion" target="_... | 2023-06-05 | Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 6.50% before 3 June 2023? | 2023-03-17 | [["2023-03-17", 0.0], ["2023-03-17", 0.22], ["2023-03-17", 0.48], ["2023-03-17", 0.4225], ["2023-03-17", 0.378], ["2023-03-17", 0.3567], ["2023-03-17", 0.3186], ["2023-03-18", 0.3129], ["2023-03-18", 0.3575], ["2023-03-18", 0.34], ["2023-03-18", 0.306], ["2023-03-18", 0.2964], ["2023-03-18", 0.315], ["2023-03-18", 0.27... | ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2EY"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-09-20 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2101 |
<p>Canadian Governor General Mary Simon dissolved the Canadian parliament at PM Justin Trudeau's request on Sunday 15 August 2021 and set election day for 20 September 2021 (<a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/national/federal-election-set-for-sept-20-after-governor-general-dissolves-parliament" targe... | 2021-09-21 | Will the Liberal Party win a majority of seats in the 2021 Canadian parliamentary elections? | 2021-08-19 | [["2021-08-20", 0.05], ["2021-08-20", 0.225], ["2021-08-20", 0.4], ["2021-08-20", 0.4], ["2021-08-20", 0.4], ["2021-08-20", 0.4], ["2021-08-20", 0.4], ["2021-08-20", 0.325], ["2021-08-20", 0.325], ["2021-08-20", 0.325], ["2021-08-20", 0.29], ["2021-08-20", 0.33], ["2021-08-20", 0.315], ["2021-08-20", 0.33], ["2021-08-2... | ["https://www.cicnews.com/2021/09/election-2021-polls-say-conservatives-are-leading-0919081.html#gs.a9296b", "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-elections-canada-warns-of-problems-delays-ahead-of-voting-day/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-trudeau-trailing-polls-goes-attack-two-weeks-befor... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-08-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1638 |
<p>The Swedish Scholastic Aptitude Test (Högskoleprovet in Swedish) is a standardized test held twice a year and used for admissions to Swedish universities (<a href="https://www.studera.nu/startpage/road-to-studies/hogskoleprovet---swedish-scholastic-aptitude-test/what-is-the-hogskoleprovet/" target="_blan... | 2020-08-08 | Will the Swedish Scholastic Aptitude Test (SweSAT) scheduled for 18 October 2020 be canceled or postponed? | 2020-05-29 | [["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.0], ["2020-05-29", 0.005], ["2020-05-29", 0.01], ["2020-05-29", 0.01], ["2020-05-29", 0.005], ["2020-05-29", 0.01], ["2020-05-29", 0.03], ["2020-05-30", 0.03], ["2020-05-30", 0.05], ["2020-05-30", 0.045], ["2020-05-30"... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2244 |
<p>Obstacles standing in the way of the US rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current US sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">Council on F... | 2023-01-01 | Before 1 January 2023, will the US officially rejoin the JCPOA? | 2022-01-14 | [["2022-01-14", 0.435], ["2022-01-14", 0.355], ["2022-01-14", 0.37666666666666665], ["2022-01-14", 0.36125], ["2022-01-15", 0.376], ["2022-01-15", 0.315], ["2022-01-15", 0.286], ["2022-01-15", 0.205], ["2022-01-15", 0.162], ["2022-01-15", 0.165], ["2022-01-15", 0.149], ["2022-01-15", 0.164], ["2022-01-16", 0.222], ["20... | ["https://lite.cnn.com/en/article/h_40ec1c76f9f1bd3d9324a5e4418fd28f", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/19/iran", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-israels-herzog-discuss-irans-nuclear-threat-2022-10-26/", "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202208300026", "https://time.com/6199552/iran-nuclear-power-ehud... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-09-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780 |
<p>CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (<a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf" target="_blank">FEMA</a>). For the purposes of this question, a CC... | 2021-09-01 | Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021? | 2020-09-11 | [["2020-09-11", 0.5], ["2020-09-11", 0.0], ["2020-09-11", 0.005], ["2020-09-11", 0.01], ["2020-09-11", 0.015], ["2020-09-11", 0.025], ["2020-09-11", 0.035], ["2020-09-12", 0.04], ["2020-09-12", 0.04], ["2020-09-12", 0.045], ["2020-09-12", 0.065], ["2020-09-12", 0.08], ["2020-09-12", 0.08], ["2020-09-12", 0.065], ["2020... | ["https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/12/24/2020-appears-to-be-a-good-year-for-counterterrorism/", "https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-soldier-arrested-plot-to-blow-up-nyc-9-11-memorial", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1EqhB5Oem8", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-large-bitcoin-payments-to-rightwing... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-06-21 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946 |
<p>The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits (<a href="https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility" target="_blank">NCAA</a>). Certain athletes sued c... | 2021-06-21 | In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law? | 2021-02-23 | [["2021-02-24", 0.85], ["2021-02-25", 0.565], ["2021-02-25", 0.66], ["2021-02-25", 0.68], ["2021-02-25", 0.66], ["2021-02-25", 0.47], ["2021-02-25", 0.28], ["2021-02-25", 0.305], ["2021-02-25", 0.28], ["2021-02-25", 0.305], ["2021-02-25", 0.33], ["2021-02-25", 0.315], ["2021-02-25", 0.3], ["2021-02-25", 0.315], ["2021-... | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Collegiate_Athletic_Association_v._Alston", "https://www.insider.com/college-admissions-scandal-full-list-people-sentenced-2019-9", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/supreme-court-rules-for-college-athletes-in-compensation-dispute-with-ncaa.html", "https://www.cbssports.com/colle... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-09-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2894 |
<div>After a series of delays, Boeing's Starliner spacecraft has been scheduled for its first launch with a crew aboard for July 2023 (<a href="https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-first-crewed-flight-delayed-july-2023" target="_blank">Space.com</a>).<p></p>
<p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.... | 2023-09-01 | Will a crewed Boeing Starliner spacecraft successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 September 2023? | 2023-05-26 | [["2023-05-26", 0.5], ["2023-05-26", 0.31], ["2023-05-26", 0.4067], ["2023-05-26", 0.43], ["2023-05-26", 0.524], ["2023-05-27", 0.52], ["2023-05-27", 0.55], ["2023-05-27", 0.55], ["2023-05-27", 0.5038], ["2023-05-27", 0.5056], ["2023-05-27", 0.491], ["2023-05-27", 0.46], ["2023-05-27", 0.4582], ["2023-05-27", 0.4925], ... | ["https://starlinerupdates.com/", "https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4597/1", "https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-first-crewed-flight-delayed-july-2023", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2023/05/26/nasa-boeing-provide-update-on-starliner-flight-test-readiness/", "https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-la... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
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