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john von neumann's procedure for ensuring a toss: 1. toss the coin twice; 2. if the results match, start over, forgetting both results; 3. if the results differ, use the first result, forgetting the second. 🤯 #math #statistics
@cryptotalkde @moneroaustralia @peterparadoxgg i do think bitcoin likely had a more distribution. that being said, i do prefer monero’s tail emission over bitcoin’s fixed supply.
suppose a is tossed three times. let x be the random variable that represents the number of heads o https://t.co/qbu19u1nvt
i really don't understand gambling. i have to brush up on my statistics, but i feel like the term "fair" gets sort of lost in the " toss" description ...there are also other distributions.
how and where to buy union (ufc) - step by step guide $ufc #unionfaircoin #ufc @chainufc https://t.co/qryim4irzk
@bertzwart1 @patrickcdemath you mean a ?
day 8/66 tossing a coin is a very basic example that explains probability. a normal coin that we use in our day-to-day life is considered to be . and this can be example of a null hypothesis. so, today as an extension of yesterday's work, i rea…https://t.co/zj4q7mylng
is there a way to prove that a /die/rng/etc produces the most entropy for the number of symbols as it produces? would anyone mind if i just assumed that's how it is?
@rationalwalk buffett said they would put a fair amount of berkshires equity down for a at odds of 3 to 7 (i think those were the numbers)
@raw_avocado @esiattorney @thisisarculus @seedsigner for example, a , flipped 128 times will yield 128 bits of entropy. but what if the coin is unfair? say the coin lands heads up 3/4 of the time. then the entropy is -(3/4*log2(3/4) + 1/4*log2(1/4)) = ~0.811 bits per flip.
@zergylord lots of things are important that are not worth talking about very much. the nfl theorem reduces to (essentially) "every method has success probability exactly 1/2 when predicting the outcome of a ". this is important, but it doesn't call all of science into question.
first program for a167826: a(n) is the number of n-tosses having a run of 3 or more heads and a run of 3 or more tails for a ....
finally, have fun with this absolutely flipper: https://t.co/vp4gjgope7, good luck🎉🎉🎉
@ro88ie47 @nickmccallum7 $32!!! that is the abuse... you need to find a league that pays
@hpbasketball if you flipped a 101 times, there's an 8.2% chance it would come up heads <= 43 times.
i give you $10. i allow you a chance to flip a . heads i take back $5, leaving you with $5. tails i give you an additional $10, leaving you with $20. do you take the coin flip?
a group of people are told that a will be flipped & that if it comes heads they will be given $ 100. if the coin comes up tails, they must pay $ 100. the majority said no. just when the payoff reached $ 2.5 gain to $ 1 loss that the majority accepted to play the game.
@overson_ @evanf1997_ my editor build runs just fine when fighting the evanf1997 boss? it could be a bug..? oh, wait! you need to ask for the income before you begin the fight or else you'll get the "broke ass" debuff. it's the game mechanics.
@nimwegenlab @lpachter @kenjiericlee @benoitbruneau @drbstewart i feel like i am missing smth here. what’s in the head of the experimenter does change the probability of generating a particular sample. let’s say it’s a . the probability of sampling 2 heads is 1/4 if i sample twice. and 0 if i sample until the first head.
@petrovadmitri @lpachter @kenjiericlee @benoitbruneau @drbstewart because they do not obey the likelihood principle. if i throw 5 heads and then a tail the p-value for whether this is 'a ' depends on whether i planned to throw 6 times or whether i planned to throw until first tail. that's nonsensical.
@evanf1997_ i've heard that evanf1997 is a harder boss if you're running the editor build. most other classes generate a income but the editor build gives you less for some reason. might be a bug
fact: before records were made from vinyl, they were made of a flip is 75/25 for heads or tails.
@iowkeep when a is tossed thrice, the probability of obtaining head at most twice is 7/8.
@nickchk if you flip a 6x and get heads each time, the prob of this given fair is 0.015, but that's a reasonable thing to happen with a over time. getting 3/6 heads would give a p of .31, .025 is << .31, but the diff only matters relative to alpha that you chose!
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@whitejsakai @opalresplendent can confirm i did a toss
@anxiousseas_ @kazmyriad it was a flip
@therand50048794 @indiatoday @aneeshamathur reservation is for uplifting oppressed people. for a , tossing it 100 times will deliver 50 heads. in a population with 25% sc/st hindus, why wouldn't those hindus get those 25% seats?
@thejackhopkins @seriusball @eileenmariesar1 the natural way to check if the coin is fair or not is to keep flipping it. each time you flip it, if the coin lands heads up then you decrease the p-value, because there is a smaller and smaller chance that a would land heads up every time the more times you flip it.
@thejackhopkins @seriusball @eileenmariesar1 if you flip it once, you might get heads. however, that could also happen if you are wrong and the coin is truly fair (your null hypothesis). the p-value in this case would be .5, where there is a 50% chance the lands heads up.
@carverjohnny fair. coin flip. i cant stand kd so im not sure why im making this argument.
@falstaffbloom except none of your examples are examples of actual randomness. see here: https://t.co/y8obuhyryi or my breakdown of that talk here: https://t.co/mwak8l0xme but you raise a good point. if ideal fair-coin tosses were *truly* random, we couldn't even predict "heads xor tails".
have you tried our no-lose provably flip games using @chainlink vrf? ☑️ go head to head against others ☑️ bet with matic ☑️ earn $bold whether you win or lose https://t.co/btqvezjip1 #cryptocurrency #gamefi #playtoearn #matic #polygon #crypto https://t.co/cxet6uxahg
probability quiz #2 for data analysts (interviewed by google & snap): say you flip a coin 10 times. it comes up tails 8 times and heads twice. is this a ?
complete failure is the plan best i can tell using the toss statistical model for right and wrong decision making by an administration.
when flipping a twice, there are four equally likely outcomes: tt, th, ht, hh. computing the probabilities of certain numbers of heads then becomes a question of counting. one of the outcomes has zero heads, allowing us to find the probability of 0 heads. (1/4)
@369cyberpunk or you can try and advocate for the most open, accessible and to evolve to try and meet demands in the market place. bitcoin doesn't need massive changes. mostly a change in attitude
what do you think: are these the tosses of a #? book on math 1980 https://t.co/wqwgzdfjua
@furysfightpicks @beefy1112 if i'm flipping a and giving you +110 on heads, or two s and giving you +341 if they're both heads, which do you pick?
@asgriff1418 if you flipped a 162 times you'd get more of a gap than that haha, someone's gonna have to fall off at some point. debated going lower on baltimore but that's already so far under their win totals in vegas
@evan_van_ness is there a future for near when the massive gorrilla in the room (ethereum) is aiming to do the same and has a more distribution than near?
calling out to all data scientists & enthusiasts! which option would go with? you toss a three times. given that you have observed at least one head, the probability that you observe at least two heads is: #datascience #probability #statistics #weeklypoll #dsdojo
@ogm_digital i used to list dgb as the third until i found out dgb doesn't have fair launch. that alone keep dgb out of '' category.
cleric: "where'd you get the new skeleton?" wizard: "old lady died." cleric: "and you stole her corpse?! that's evil!" wizard: "i gave her for it." cleric: "instead of saving her?!" wizard: "not a healer. where were you?" cleric: "collecting tithes." wizard: "..." #dnd
pow not only enables trust-minimized txs, but also a distribution. every single coin is acquired at its marginal value. pos coins can be obtained at no cost, so they are often concentrated in the hands of a cartel aware of their illiquidity and manipulated value&mcap.
duke and unc are 50-50 since coach k(rybaby) took over duke. flip a 100 times. then do it again, and again until you do it 100 times. how many of those end up 50/50?
@outai11 @lukasro64880026 @coinmarketcap @cmcalexandria me too this isn't market cap fucked us... watch them say their website was hacked or someshit smh everyone is using the "our website was hacked" excuse its a damn shame ... karma is a mofo
@harrytrevaldwyn @vanityfair i can't decide whether to be in awe that you have a poster signed by the spice girls in different colour pens or that you are in the vanity fair. coin toss clearly. congratulations!
@kjw_chiu @diskandarcrypto @haydenzadams if you use a or dice you’re own randomness is actually far superior to the pseudo randomness of software or chips
i found this question: a , if heads, double your wealth, if tails, half your wealth, what is the expected value of money if you play infinitely. i am under the impression the answer guide is wrong: https://t.co/vhtylrjdtx
sincerely yeah, i think an actual flip might offer more effective governance. it would at least lack (as far as we know) a capacity for spite and avarice. https://t.co/ytzof6ereh
the cool part about this is that you only need to do the protocol once. then just hold on to the last chacha output and you can generate secure unhosted wallets forever on pen and paper without flipping any coins
#bales2022filmchallenge april day 1: coin seen in a movie ghostbusters: afterlife (2021) directed by jason reitman janine melnitz (annie potts) gives her world's to egon spengler (harold ramis) for good luck https://t.co/bshcsu8ttd
player 1 chooses two numbers x ≠ y. player 2 observes either x or y, depending on a toss, and has to guess if the other number is higher or lower. can 2 guarantee a correct guess w.p. > 1/2 for all x,y?
@_rl_w @gidmk @jeremyfaust no. credible interval crosses 1. like i said before, you can get the same result using something inert as a treatment. it's be like if you flipped a coin 10 times, with 6 heads and 4 tails. that's a result consistent with a ; it's not a substantial deviation from 50%.
suppose you flip a four time. (a) what is the probability you will get all four heads? (b) all four tails? (c) either all four heads or https://t.co/yjbfzhsutn
@mwendiajnr a toss of a ,,,😂😂
@akarlin0 a would have guessed more correctly, lol.
@gidmk allocated by tossing a _very_ ? 🤔 😁 https://t.co/z4tfmktdrw
@stuyewest1 overtime is for losers. since everyone wants to make it “fair” - coin flip only ot rules should be next. whoever wins the flip wins the game.
@mastertimblais @pragueyerrr @gptbrooke "hi i flipped a and precommitted to lie iff it comes up tails. anyway i think u are really great wanna hang out again today"
nfl team & their fans who lose in ot after the team who wins the coin toss scores two td’s or a td & fg on their first two possessions, “but they got the ball twice and we got it once!!! that’s not fair! coin toss shouldn’t decide the game”!!! 😭😭😭
@freshsto 80+% whom wins the toss wins the game. number jumps in playoffs too. if it was 60% i’d be ok with it. the data shows it’s not closely fair. coin toss decides the game.
@northmantrader if there was 11 times heads on a it doesn't add any predictive power to the next game. chances are still 0.5 for heads.
patulong naman po, if a is tossed thrice may probability bang maging tayo?
patulong naman po if a is tossed thrice may probability bang maging tayo?
@matthew_d_green write the numbers 0-2047 on 2048 pieces of paper. insert all pieces of paper into a large enough bag and mix them thoroughly. then draw a single piece of paper. the 11 tosses of a is easier for a single test, the papers in a bag pays off the more it is reused.
@matthew_d_green no arithmetic needed -- flip a 11 times and record a 1 or zero, there's your number. if you need decimal the conversion is pretty simple - print the powers of two, cover rows for zeroes, add.
@matthew_d_green we don't know what's truly random (are die tosses random?) but assuming a you could just do 11 tosses obvipusly.
@pankaj have heard of a similar interview question: you're given a (p=0.5). how can you generate samples from a bernoulli distribution with p=1/3
1/ what is the kelly criterion? to explain, let's play a game. we bet on a . heads: u win 51% of ur wager tails: u lose 49%. now: how much of ur net worth do u bet on the next toss? is it better to bet $69 4200 times or $4200 69 times? why should this even matter??
@victoreremita2 @theomniliberal are you trolling me lol? let's make it super super simple. i flip a . chance of heads coming up once: 1/2 chance of heads coming up twice: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 right? that 1/4 is the conditional probability. please tell me you get that...
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math time! take <= 2 minutes. flip a four times. take all of the flips that came immediately after a head. if there were any, compute the fraction of heads among those flips. on average, what apparent "p(head|preceding flip was a head)" do you get?
@brewsterlala in other words, no matter what she says or does, you'll still call her a tool of the corporatcracy... you're another one of those pseudo leftists whose idea of a toss is, "heads i win, tails you lose." 🙂
a mysterious economist approaches you, offering a bet flip a n times until it comes up heads if 2|n, you pay 2^n / n dollars, whereas if 2~|n the economist pays you 2^n / n dollars how much do you play for?
@agnescallard @cklorentzen if you give me $1000, i'll promise to pay you $2000 if a flip lands heads. incidentally, i dont have any money to pay you with. wanna play?
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a genie comes to you offering a deal start with $1000 of your own money as your "portfolio". flip a 100 times in a row • heads, you gain 50% • tails, you lose 40% each time you must bet your whole "portfolio". you keep the final amount should you take this deal?
@doraxclemo @alt666x i like those odds but don’t trust the pair of yous to do a flip 🤔
@ruzzara @presssec how many times do you think you need to flip a before you get ten heads in a row? not to mention that the newest variants are more likely to evade the vaccine.
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@iang_fc perhaps we could restore uncertainty by committing to invade on a toss, then not revealing the result to putin.
there have been 18 goals kicked in only three 'streaks'. "momentum"? if we flip a 18 times, we expect just three streaks in ~0.1% of attempts. given there about 200 games a season, even with two perfectly-matched 'coin' teams, we expect one of these every five years.
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