id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
meta-20769 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | The Colorado Supreme Court recently [ruled that Donald Trump is to be removed from the state's 2024 Republican primary ballots](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-colorado-supreme-court/). In response, some Republicans have [intimated the possibility](https://nypost.com/2023/12/20/news/republicans-float-booting-biden-... | 2023-12-28T20:47:00Z | 2024-11-05T03:00:00Z | 2024-07-22T15:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20768 | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | The threat of nuclear weapons has loomed over the world since over one hundred thousand were killed when the United States [dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in August of 1945. More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has [ele... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-02T14:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20766 | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | India and Pakistan have tense [relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and a [history of conflict](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan), in recent years involving a number of skirmishes at the contested border.
Tensions heightened ... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-07T13:50:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18386 | Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election? | On May 17, 2023, [Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-president-lasso-national-assembly-impeachment-proceedings-de9e4a9c59dfcfb75e81df58adb9c4c3). Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as "[muerte cruzada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada)" to diss... | 2023-08-16T18:00:00Z | 2023-08-19T22:00:00Z | 2023-08-21T20:40:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18385 | Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days? | On May 17, 2023, [Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-president-lasso-national-assembly-impeachment-proceedings-de9e4a9c59dfcfb75e81df58adb9c4c3). Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as "[muerte cruzada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada)" to diss... | 2023-08-16T23:03:00Z | 2023-10-07T22:00:00Z | 2023-10-09T01:25:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18366 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | BJP, led by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been ruling India since 2014. It's a right wing, nationalist party that has recently faced much criticism for its measures to curb [freedom](https://rsf.org/en/country/india) [of speech](https://rsf.org/en/india-media-freedom-under-threat), threaten [democracy by targeti... | 2023-09-02T19:37:00Z | 2024-04-01T11:00:00Z | 2024-06-04T20:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18311 | Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India? | [CNBC reports](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/10/putin-considers-attending-g20-summit-in-person-setting-up-tense-meeting-with-western-leaders.html):
> Russian President Vladimir Putin is weighing whether to attend his first in-person meeting with Western leaders since his forces invaded Ukraine in 2022, a Kremlin sourc... | 2023-08-12T23:08:00Z | 2023-09-08T21:59:00Z | 2023-09-11T17:29:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18243 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | One of the questions surrounding LK-99 replications is whether they merely demonstrate an unusual degree of diamagnetism. Even if not superconducting, this might represent an interesting advance in material science.
The current strongest known diamagnetic material is pyrolytic graphite, with a magnetic susceptibility ... | 2023-08-07T19:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T19:00:00Z | 2025-01-20T00:19:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18242 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | The supposed room-temperature superconductor LK-99 has inspired lots of discussion. Among the replication attempts are claims that LK-99 is a superconductor at [110K Tc](https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01192).
If it is, that would be a new family of unusually high temperature ambient pressure superconductors. So far, all t... | 2023-08-07T19:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T19:00:00Z | 2025-01-19T23:29:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18231 | Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate? | In the midst of [increasing legal challenges](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61084161), Donald Trump remains the [most likely Republican nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/) for President in 2024.
Trump can win the nomination via the [2024 Republican Presid... | 2023-08-09T14:00:00Z | 2023-08-24T01:00:00Z | 2023-08-24T03:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18229 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | One of the potential risks to Donald Trump’s presidential hopes in 2024 is whether a high profile Republican presidential candidate opts to run as an independent, sapping votes from centrist voters who dislike the former President but would otherwise vote along with their party.
Resolution Criteria: This question reso... | 2023-08-07T23:55:00Z | 2024-11-06T01:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T17:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18221 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | In June the [Russian Federal Security Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Security_Service) (FSB) [issued a public statement](http://www.fsb.ru/fsb/press/message/single.htm%21id%3D10439739%40fsbMessage.html) claiming that Apple collaborates heavily with American Intelligence Agencies, particularly the [US Na... | 2023-08-11T16:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18192 | Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law? | On July 24, 2023, Israel [passed a new law](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-leaves-hospital-israel-faces-key-vote-legal-changes-rcna95881) that [weakens the power of the courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform). Known as the "reasonableness" law, the new law limits the ability of... | 2023-08-11T14:13:00Z | 2023-12-01T14:00:00Z | 2024-01-02T10:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18191 | Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023? | On July 24, 2023, Israel [passed a new law](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-leaves-hospital-israel-faces-key-vote-legal-changes-rcna95881) that [weakens the power of the courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform). Known as the "reasonableness" law, the new law limits the ability of... | 2023-08-03T14:00:00Z | 2023-09-30T22:00:00Z | 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18190 | Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023? | Former President Donald Trump was [indicted for the third time](https://apnews.com/article/trump-indicted-jan-6-investigation-special-counsel-debb59bb7a4d9f93f7e2dace01feccdc) on August 1, 2023, on felony charges related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Six anonymous co-conspira... | 2023-08-03T14:00:00Z | 2023-08-10T22:00:00Z | 2023-08-11T13:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18186 | Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023? | *The resolution criteria and some of the background have been copied and edited from [this shorter term question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18181/ecowas-intervention-2023/).*
---
On 26 July 2023, a [coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) occured in Niger when the presidential gu... | 2023-08-10T16:43:00Z | 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z | 2023-10-03T14:59:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18181 | Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023? | On 26 July 2023, a [coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) occured in Niger when the presidential guard detained president Mohamed Bazoum. The next day, the military recognised the junta, and on 28 July, ringleader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tchiani officially proclaimed himself as th... | 2023-08-03T14:00:00Z | 2023-08-11T22:00:00Z | 2023-08-12T11:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18177 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called ["The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an... | 2023-08-01T07:05:00Z | 2024-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2025-01-08T21:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18170 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, [describes a new material known as LK-99](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) which the authors claim exhibits [superconducting properties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity) at room temperature and ambient pressure. The [veracity of the results are uncertain](ht... | 2023-08-01T12:40:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-08T21:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18161 | Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023? | On July 26, 2023, Nigerien President [Mohamed Bazoum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Bazoum) was [deposed in a military coup](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66320895). According to [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/30/west-african-govts-give-niger-coup-leaders-a-week-to-cede-power):
>Wes... | 2023-08-03T14:00:00Z | 2023-08-30T22:00:00Z | 2023-09-01T17:57:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18133 | Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023? | On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called ["The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an... | 2023-07-29T13:00:00Z | 2023-08-03T22:00:00Z | 2023-08-01T03:04:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18102 | Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days? | The oil storage vessel FSO Safer holds more than 1.1 million barrels of oil (four times that of Exxon Valdez), and has for the past few years been moored off the coast of Yemen. [An operation began on July 25th to remove the oil from the vessel:](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/un-oil-tanker-salvage-operation-begins-in-y... | 2023-07-29T15:00:00Z | 2023-08-13T10:00:00Z | 2023-08-11T15:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18090 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called ["The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an... | 2023-07-26T20:45:00Z | 2024-07-01T16:00:00Z | 2023-08-01T04:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18069 | Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history? | Antarctic sea ice is a [vital component](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-climate-antarctic-sea-ice-extent) of the Earth's climate system.
The 2023 Antarctic sea ice season set a [record low](https://nsidc.org/news-analyses/news-stories/antarctic-sea-ice-settles-record-low-2023... | 2023-07-31T21:19:00Z | 2023-09-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-10-01T15:33:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18068 | Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? | Mark Zuckerberg launched a twitter competitor, Threads, on July 5, 2023. On the first day after launch, Zuckerberg [claimed](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-06/millions-sign-up-to-meta-twitter-rival-app-threads-in-hours/102572568) 30 million users signed up.
Threads launched on [Android](https://play.google.com/st... | 2023-07-29T15:00:00Z | 2023-09-30T19:00:00Z | 2023-08-24T17:14:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18059 | Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023? | On July 17, 2023, Russia [announced](https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-black-sea-grain-deal-over/) that it had quit the [Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative). The Black Sea grain deal had been in force since July of 2022, protecting maritime grain... | 2023-07-26T15:00:00Z | 2023-09-24T22:00:00Z | 2023-09-25T13:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18047 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | On 2023-07-23, Spaniards went to the polls to elect the 15th Cortes Generales. The election resulted in a hung Congress of Deputies; center-right PP is the biggest party, but its 136 seats are far short of the 176 needed for a majority in the 350-strong chamber.
Runners-up were the PSOE, PP's center-left rival, with a... | 2023-08-02T04:19:00Z | 2024-02-28T22:59:00Z | 2024-03-04T15:22:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18007 | Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class? | Most good universities in the US have required undergraduate applicants to write admissions essays. As of mid 2023, Harvard and Stanford require the "first-year essay prompts" in the [Common Application](https://www.commonapp.org/apply/essay-prompts); Harvard also [requires](https://college.harvard.edu/guides/applicati... | 2023-07-24T00:32:00Z | 2023-10-01T19:00:00Z | 2023-08-24T23:20:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17995 | Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025? | Historically, the [Black Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea) has been the battleground of numerous conflicts resulting in the loss of Naval vessels. The most recent and on-going conflict is the [Russo-Ukrainian war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War).
From the onset of the war, most of the co... | 2023-08-01T15:16:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:59:00Z | 2023-08-05T05:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17992 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | After the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya had its first free election in some 50-odd years, seeing their [electoral democracy index (as judged by V-Dem) spike at above 0.5](https://ourworldindata.org/democracy). In its 2014 election, Libya appointed a House of Representatives as its government.
The validity of thi... | 2023-08-05T05:07:00Z | 2024-12-31T11:00:00Z | 2025-01-08T22:07:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17990 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords):
> The Abraham Accords are a series of joint normalization statements initially between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, effective since September 15, 2020.
The Accords were later joined by Morocco (2020) and Sudan (2021). As part o... | 2023-08-06T18:46:00Z | 2025-01-19T22:59:00Z | 2025-01-21T14:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17989 | Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024? | According [to the bill](https://www.grassley.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/eats_act.pdf), the act is intended "to prevent States and local jurisdictions from interfering with the production and distribution of agricultural products in interstate commerce, and for other purposes."
The “Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression ... | 2023-07-21T21:42:00Z | 2024-01-02T20:00:00Z | 2024-01-04T20:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17988 | Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th? | There have been two separate [outbreaks of Marburg virus](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2023-DON467) in Africa in 2023; one in Equatorial Guinea and one in Tanzania, but by June 8th, both outbreaks were reported over, ["after two consecutive incubation periods (42 days) without a new confir... | 2023-07-21T19:32:00Z | 2023-07-28T22:00:00Z | 2023-07-29T14:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17955 | Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon? | [The Chandrayaan Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan_programme) (Translation: Lunar Vehicle Programme), also known as the Indian Lunar Exploration Programme, is an ongoing series of outer space missions by the [Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISRO). Its four mai... | 2023-07-20T21:24:00Z | 2023-08-22T10:00:00Z | 2023-08-24T13:14:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17916 | Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023? | [UPS](https://www.ups.com/kz/en/Home.page) and UPS union employees are in the midst of [negotiations](https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/ups-will-train-non-union-employees-ahead-of-looming-strike/) over a new contract. The current employee contract is set to expire on July 31, 2023. Negotiations [deadlocked](https://ww... | 2023-07-19T15:15:00Z | 2023-08-03T15:00:00Z | 2023-08-04T16:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17914 | Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon? | The Chandrayaan-3 lander [Vikram](https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/indias-chandrayaan-3-mission-launches-for-the-moon/#:~:text=The%20Vikram%20rover%20undergoing%20acoustic,be%20seen%20in%20the%20foreground.&text=The%20mission%20is%20targeting%20a,set%20for%20August%2023%2C%202023.) is a lunar lander designed ... | 2023-07-20T16:45:00Z | 2023-08-23T16:00:00Z | 2023-08-23T12:40:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17907 | Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023? | Over the last few years, Sweden has had hotter and sunnier summers than usual, an experience shared with other places around the world. The hot and dry summers are bad for crop yields, but occasionally celebrated by people looking to enjoy their vacation and recharge on daylight after a long, dark winter.
So far, this... | 2023-07-18T19:11:00Z | 2023-07-30T10:00:00Z | 2023-08-11T19:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17906 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | [CNEOS 2014-01-08](https://www.space.com/2014-meteor-first-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua), also known as [Interstellar Meteor 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08) (IM1), crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014.
Harvard astrophysicist [Avi Loeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avi_Loe... | 2023-07-21T18:22:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17826 | Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025? | Instagram recently announced Threads, a text based social media application integrated with Instagram. Instagram [announced](https://help.instagram.com/169559812696339) they are planning on supporting [ActivityPub](https://www.w3.org/TR/activitypub/) a protocol for social networking.
Resolution Criteria: Instagram, Th... | 2023-07-26T00:22:00Z | 2025-01-01T09:59:00Z | 2024-03-21T04:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17796 | Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place? | [The Sphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_at_The_Venetian_Resort), an impressive $2 billion venue at the Venetian Resort in Las Vegas, was [fully illuminated for the first time on July 4, 2023](https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/5/23784790/sphere-las-vegas-led-screen-lit). Covered in 580,000 square feet of program... | 2023-07-13T16:02:00Z | 2023-09-28T18:00:00Z | 2023-09-30T16:06:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17793 | Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List? | [Colson Whitehead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colson_Whitehead), is a Pulitzer and National Book Award-winning author who has penned various acclaimed works, such as "The Underground Railroad," "The Nickel Boys," and "Harlem Shuffle," and received numerous accolades like the MacArthur Fellowship. His latest book *Cr... | 2023-07-14T20:41:00Z | 2023-07-28T18:00:00Z | 2023-08-02T13:06:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17792 | Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election? | [Ohio Issue 1](https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_Issue_1,_60%25_Vote_Requirement_to_Approve_Constitutional_Amendments_Measure_(2023)) (2023), also called "the 60% Vote Requirement to Approve Constitutional Amendments Measure", is on the ballot in Ohio for an election on August 8, 2023.
A "yes" vote would amend the Ohio Con... | 2023-07-12T18:52:00Z | 2023-08-08T03:59:00Z | 2023-08-09T01:57:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17771 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Google DeepMind is an AI lab and subsidiary of Alphabet - best known for creating AlphaGo, the first AI system to defeat a professional Go player. DeepMind is currently developing a new AI system called Gemini which CEO Demis Hassabis [claims](https://www.wired.com/story/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis-chatgpt/) will b... | 2023-07-19T23:45:00Z | 2024-07-29T16:00:00Z | 2024-01-06T23:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17767 | Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023? | [Luna-25](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25) is a planned lunar lander mission by the Russian space agency Roscosmos. If it succeeds, it will land in the lunar South Pole region near the Boguslavsky crater.
As [the Russian-language Wikipedia article about Luna-25](https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BD%... | 2023-07-10T12:47:00Z | 2023-08-31T21:59:00Z | 2023-08-10T23:10:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17742 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023? | **Previous Questions on Metaculus**
- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/)
- [Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?](https://www.... | 2023-07-07T19:34:00Z | 2023-09-30T21:00:44.003000Z | 2023-09-30T21:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17725 | Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage? | The [Tour de France](https://www.letour.fr/en/) is one of the most prestigious and iconic cycling races in the world, attracting top cyclists from around the globe.
The yellow jersey, or maillot jaune, is worn by the leader of the [general classification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_classification_in_the_To... | 2023-07-07T20:01:00Z | 2023-07-09T05:00:00Z | 2023-07-09T18:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17716 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | [Cris Ericson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cris_Ericson) has been a candidate every two years in Vermont from 2002 to 2020 and has lost every election. She is known as the cannabis legalization [candidate](http://crisericson.com) in Vermont. Cannabis is now [legal](https://www.mpp.org/states/vermont/) under VT state... | 2023-07-07T00:23:00Z | 2024-11-08T17:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T17:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17701 | Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th? | General [Sergei Surovikin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Surovikin), head of the Russian aerospace forces and former commander of Russia's military operation in Ukraine, has recently been detained amid speculation about loyalty and divisions within the country's leadership. Surovikin was [reportedly aware in adv... | 2023-07-04T18:00:00Z | 2023-07-11T18:00:00Z | 2023-07-13T11:19:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17682 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | On 24 February 2022, [Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), escalating the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) that began in 2014. Subsequently, on 30 September 2022, Russia unilaterally [declared the annexation](ht... | 2023-07-07T00:47:00Z | 2024-12-31T21:00:00Z | 2025-01-06T19:28:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17660 | Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023? | Hurricane season in Virginia runs from [June 1 to November 30](https://www.vaemergency.gov/threats/hurricanes/). Virginia uses a system known as ["Know Your Zone"](https://va-know-your-zone-vdemgis.hub.arcgis.com/) featuring four zones for at-risk areas which can be used for evacuation orders:
>“Know Your Zone” serv... | 2023-06-30T19:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-04T17:23:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17655 | Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023? | In late June 2023, Israel's public broadcasting network [reported](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/palestinian-territories/1687947488-palestinian-authority-discusses-possible-bankruptcy-amidst-financial-troubles) that the Palestinian Authority may need to declare bankruptcy. Representatives of the Palestinia... | 2023-07-07T01:22:00Z | 2023-12-31T10:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17598 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | To date, no sitting Attorney General of the United States of America has ever been impeached. The closest case was in 1922, when [Attorney General Harry M. Daugherty faced an impeachment investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_officials#Attorney_General_... | 2023-06-28T21:40:00Z | 2024-11-04T03:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T05:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17593 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | The Sacremento Kings were one of the [surprises](https://www.skysports.com/nba/news/12028/12904737/2022-23-nba-season-review-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly) of the 2022-23 NBA season, reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Their head coach, Mike Brown, was the first coach in NBA history to [unanimously be ... | 2023-07-07T00:54:00Z | 2024-04-15T16:00:00Z | 2024-04-20T04:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17592 | Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023? | [Investopedia describes the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/djia.asp) as follows:
>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a stock market index that tracks 30 large, publicly-owned blue-chip companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones i... | 2023-07-04T18:00:00Z | 2023-07-31T13:00:00Z | 2023-07-19T20:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17584 | Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023? | A political rally on 14 October 2023 organised by [Chain of Freedom Scotland](https://chainoffreedom.scot/) aims to form a human chain spanning the width of Scotland, following the route of the Forth and Clyde Canal. Will this aim be achieved?
The rally is inspired by [Baltic Way](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balti... | 2023-10-05T15:00:00Z | 2023-10-13T22:59:00Z | 2023-10-16T15:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17581 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024? | Twitter & Facebook have been abuzz regarding the interaction that occurred between the two high-profile tech billionaires - Elon Musk & Mark Zuckerberg.
It seems that both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have [agreed to fight each other](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/22/elon-musk-vs-mark-zuckerberg-... | 2023-07-07T00:08:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17580 | Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June? | Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142) on Saturday, June 24th, that his mercenaries will suspend their advance towards Moscow and return to Ukraine.
Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus and a firm supporter of President Vladimir Pu... | 2023-06-24T20:30:00Z | 2023-06-30T20:30:00Z | 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17571 | Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023? | > On 23 June 2023, the Russian private military company known as the Wagner Group initiated an armed conflict with the Russian Armed Forces, following increasing tensions between the organization's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD). Wagner personnel have said that corruption and incom... | 2023-06-24T15:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17569 | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023? | > On 23 June 2023, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin alleged that soldiers of the Russian Ministry of Defense were shelling his positions. Prigozhin promised to take revenge on the leadership of the Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin said the "evil" in the military leadership must be stopped and vowed to "March for Jus... | 2023-06-24T14:00:00Z | 2023-06-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17554 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | Following the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) both countries agreed to the [Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://unctad.org/news/black-sea-grain-initiative-what-it-and-why-its-important-world), which [Wikipedia describes as follows](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B... | 2023-07-04T18:00:00Z | 2023-07-17T22:00:00Z | 2023-07-17T13:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17547 | Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22? | From Wikipedia: On June 18, 2023, the Titan, a submersible operated by OceanGate Expeditions, went missing in the North Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Newfoundland in Canada. The submersible, designed to carry five people, was carrying an expedition of tourists to view the wreckage of RMS Titanic.
Resolution Criteria... | 2023-06-21T02:16:00Z | 2023-06-22T19:00:00Z | 2023-06-22T16:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17533 | Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023? | Tesla Inc., the renowned electric vehicle (EV) maker, has seen a steady uptrend in its stock value, with a multi-week streak resulting in a [131% increase in share value](https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/15/is-tesla-headed-back-to-trillion-dollar-market/) within the year 2023. This upward surge has elevated the ... | 2023-06-22T18:00:00Z | 2023-06-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T06:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17530 | Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023? | [Voicebox](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/voicebox-generative-ai-model-speech/) is a generative AI model for speech developed by Meta AI. The model is unique in its ability to generalize to speech-generation tasks it was not specifically trained to accomplish. The model can synthesize speech across six languages, perform... | 2023-06-21T20:19:00Z | 2023-06-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-07-05T16:16:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17517 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023? | On January 18, 2022, Microsoft, manufacturer of the Xbox video game console, [announced](https://news.microsoft.com/2022/01/18/microsoft-to-acquire-activision-blizzard-to-bring-the-joy-and-community-of-gaming-to-everyone-across-every-device/) an agreement to acquire Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, which would ma... | 2023-07-01T10:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T11:00:00Z | 2023-10-13T13:02:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17516 | Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again? | The [International Math Olympiad (IMO)](https://imo2023.jp/en/) is the oldest international science Olympiad for pre-college students. China's team has dominated the last few years. At last year's (63rd) IMO competition, China had the [top score](https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=2022) of 252 points... | 2023-06-20T16:19:00Z | 2023-07-12T16:00:00Z | 2023-07-13T18:12:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17469 | Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023? | In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its [Application Programming Interface](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API) (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice o... | 2023-06-15T14:01:00Z | 2023-06-30T22:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T15:59:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17416 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Common usage of ChatGPT by OpenAI, launched in Nov 2022, greatly reduces the difficulty of artificially generating text. One possible implication of this is an increase in AI-written text on social media, which may challenge norms and assumptions about such platforms.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Y... | 2023-06-11T21:46:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T05:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17380 | Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024? | On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/2023053120394... | 2023-06-08T17:13:00Z | 2023-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:19:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17379 | Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024? | On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/2023053120394... | 2023-06-08T17:16:00Z | 2023-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17378 | Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024? | On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/2023053120394... | 2023-06-08T17:19:00Z | 2023-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2023-11-06T20:15:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17377 | Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024? | On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/2023053120394... | 2023-06-08T17:22:00Z | 2023-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2024-01-11T20:20:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17376 | Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024? | On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/2023053120394... | 2023-06-08T17:23:00Z | 2023-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2023-11-06T19:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17372 | Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff? | [Sierra Leone's Presidential Elections](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/6/1/familiar-faces-concerns-linger-ahead-of-sierra-leones-june-vote) are set for June 24, 2023, with the key contenders being current President Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and Samura Kamara of the All People’s... | 2023-06-08T20:21:00Z | 2023-06-23T16:00:00Z | 2023-06-27T17:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17370 | Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7? | The [NBA Finals](https://www.nba.com/playoffs/2023/the-finals) and the [Stanley Cup Finals](https://www.nhl.com/stanley-cup-playoffs) both feature a best-of-seven series format, which means that a team must win four games to secure the championship. Historically, many series have been decided before reaching a game 7, ... | 2023-06-07T20:06:00Z | 2023-06-15T16:00:00Z | 2023-06-14T02:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17324 | Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023? | Ukraine is [widely expected](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/4/22/23693259/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-spring) to launch a counteroffensive this spring.
On June 2, 2023, President Zelenskyy said:
>This isn’t a movie. It’s difficult for me to say how you will see the counteroffensive. The main thing is tha... | 2023-06-03T16:17:00Z | 2023-06-21T00:00:00Z | 2023-06-08T15:38:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17323 | Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023? | The [AI Act](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu) is a proposed law in the European Union to regulate artificial intelligence. If approved, the Act would impose [new rules](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230505IPR84904/ai-act-a-step-closer-to-the-first-rules-on-artificial-intelligence) governing t... | 2023-06-03T15:15:00Z | 2023-06-16T02:00:00Z | 2023-06-14T12:13:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17322 | Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election? | Georgia is a former Soviet republic that declared its independence in 1991 and has since pursued a pro-Western course, aspiring to join the European Union and NATO. However, Georgia’s territorial integrity has been challenged by Russia, which supports two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and invaded Geor... | 2023-06-04T20:00:00Z | 2024-10-26T08:00:00Z | 2024-01-29T14:34:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17316 | Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023? | As of 1. June the [Ukrainian spring counteroffensive](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/30/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-preparations-intl/index.html ) has [not yet happened](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-war-attack-b962aba2b779044d22b11dab719f1614). In preparation for this counter ... | 2023-06-09T18:00:00Z | 2023-09-30T20:59:00Z | 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17294 | Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting? | The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Rese... | 2023-06-02T16:00:00Z | 2023-06-14T16:00:00Z | 2023-06-14T18:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17293 | Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate? | [Transparent Replications](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in *Nature* or *Science* involv... | 2023-05-31T15:20:00Z | 2023-06-14T22:00:00Z | 2023-06-20T00:13:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17262 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023? | On May 24, 2023, OpenAI reported a 51-minute outage of ChatGPT (chat.openai.com), causing workers all over the world to grudgingly consider doing their jobs unassisted during that time. OpenAI has a [status page](https://status.openai.com/uptime?page=1) showing, for each calendar day, the number of hours that OpenAI's ... | 2023-05-27T02:26:00Z | 2023-06-30T19:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T15:57:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17260 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | From [Reuters on May 24, 2023](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-may-leave-eu-if-regulations-bite-ceo-2023-05-24), "OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on Wednesday the ChatGPT maker might consider leaving Europe if it could not comply with the upcoming artificial intelligence (AI) regulations by the European Union."
T... | 2023-05-26T15:07:00Z | 2024-06-30T19:00:00Z | 2024-07-12T12:12:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17250 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Linda Yaccarino, the former advertising chief of NBCUniversal, has been [appointed as the CEO of Twitter](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/12/tech/twitter-ceo-linda-yaccarino/index.html) by Elon Musk, the owner of the platform. She's expected to [assume the role in late June, 2023](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/16... | 2023-05-27T02:28:00Z | 2024-06-30T22:00:00Z | 2024-07-02T11:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17247 | Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023? | WWDC is Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference. Each year they launch updates to Apple hardware and software.
On April 16, 2023, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-04-16/apple-wwdc-2023-june-5-plan-reality-headset-new-macs-watchos-10-ios-17-lgjfj5bf) "Apple has several new mo... | 2023-05-26T12:00:00Z | 2023-06-05T12:00:00Z | 2023-06-05T17:04:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17246 | Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023? | [Elizabeth Holmes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Holmes) is the founder and former CEO of Theranos, a now-defunct health technology company. Theranos claimed to have revolutionized blood testing by developing testing methods that could use surprisingly small volumes of blood. However, it was revealed that the... | 2023-05-26T13:00:00Z | 2023-05-29T10:00:00Z | 2023-05-31T20:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17241 | Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election? | [General elections for Alberta's Legislative Assembly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Alberta_general_election) will be held on May 29th. The incumbent United Conservative Party under Danielle Smith will be seeking their second term, while their main challengers are the New Democratic Party under Rachel Notley, who... | 2023-05-27T02:43:00Z | 2023-05-30T05:50:00Z | 2023-06-05T15:05:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17202 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | The closing stock price of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) on 25th of May 2023 was [379.80 USD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history?period1=1653523200&period2=1685059200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true).
This is a significant increase from the lows in October 2022 of $108.... | 2023-05-27T20:52:00Z | 2024-12-30T18:00:00Z | 2025-01-04T03:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17180 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | "Deepfakes" or "Deep fakes" are synthetic media created with generative AI that imitate real media, but have people saying or doing things they did not actually do. This can be in the form of a static image, a short video, or an audio recording with no video.
In May 2022, a deepfake video of Elon Musk promoting a scam... | 2023-05-23T18:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2025-01-09T00:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17179 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | As more of the world's infrastructure has major digital components, cyberattacks have the potential to become more common and lead to bigger disasters. None, however, have been directly attributed to AI systems. Non-AI cyberattacks on infrastructure include:
* In May 2021, a [ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline](ht... | 2023-05-23T18:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2025-01-15T21:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17178 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | In January 2023, a report by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) found that the theft of IP (intellectual property) is a growing problem. The report found that the value of stolen IP is estimated to be between $2 trillion and $6 trillion per year. None, however, have been attributed to AI systems that p... | 2023-05-23T18:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2025-01-15T21:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17177 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Attacks on voting machines are becoming more common. In Dec 2022, the Brennan Center for Justice wrote that "In 2016, Russian hackers targeted election systems in all 50 states. No votes were actually changed, but the hackers penetrated at least Illinois’s database deeply enough to have the ability to delete or change ... | 2023-05-23T18:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2025-01-09T00:29:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17176 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Erratic trading in stock markets like the NYSE, NASDAQ, and LSE is an increasing problem, though as of May 2023, not directly due to AI, though perhaps due to high-frequency trading (HFT).
Examples of Flash Crashes were the [2010 drop of 1,000 points in the DOW for disputed reasons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_... | 2023-05-23T18:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2025-01-09T00:25:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17174 | Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country? | The [Palme d'Or](https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/the-festival/the-palme-d-or/) is the most prestigious award presented at the Cannes Film Festival, an internationally renowned film festival held annually in Cannes, France. First introduced in 1955, the Palme d'Or is awarded to the film judged to be the best among th... | 2023-05-19T18:00:00Z | 2023-05-26T18:00:00Z | 2023-05-27T22:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-17114 | Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023? | Thailand held an [election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16728/seats-won-by-opposition-parties/) on May 14th, 2023. The [result](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/old-rivalries-new-battle-thailand-goes-polls-2023-05-13/) shocked pollsters and political pundits alike — the Move Forward Party (MFP) came i... | 2023-05-28T02:34:00Z | 2023-06-30T16:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17103 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | AI and its ability to have broad impacts on society, became much more common topics in news and social media in early 2023 with the release of OpenAI's ChatGPT. US Presidential debates, however, generally focus on a set of more narrowly framed societal issues. For example, the [2020 debates between Biden and Trump](htt... | 2023-05-17T15:19:00Z | 2024-10-31T19:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T18:10:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-17090 | Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023? | On Friday, May 12, two US officials [told news sources](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kinzhal-missile-targeted-patriot-battery-report-claims) that Russia launched a hypersonic [Kh-47 Kinzhal](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hyp... | 2023-05-18T13:00:00Z | 2023-06-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16792 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024? | The [Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZNPP) (ZNPP) is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, with an electric output of 5.7 GWh. After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces took control over the plant.
The [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wik... | 2023-05-12T23:15:00Z | 2024-01-01T08:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T22:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16787 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) were the top two candidates for US President in 2020. Both have declared their candidacy for the presidency in 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump and Joe Biden, in either order, are the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received ... | 2023-05-11T23:54:00Z | 2024-11-05T18:00:00Z | 2025-01-07T20:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16762 | Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023? | The last time a housing price drop of >= 15% in a year was in 2008 (18%). The collapse was due to the [subprime housing crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis).
<img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxMZad2WwAABv39?format=jpg&name=4096x4096" alt="Case Schiller Drop in 2008" />
Home prices in... | 2023-05-31T22:57:00Z | 2023-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2024-04-04T23:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16743 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023? | On February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's initial plan seemed to involve [rapidly taking the capital](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)), deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after... | 2023-05-08T13:00:00Z | 2023-05-31T21:00:00Z | 2023-05-31T21:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
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