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meta-20769
|
Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?
|
The Colorado Supreme Court recently [ruled that Donald Trump is to be removed from the state's 2024 Republican primary ballots](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-colorado-supreme-court/). In response, some Republicans have [intimated the possibility](https://nypost.com/2023/12/20/news/republicans-float-booting-biden-off-ballots-after-trump-colorado-ruling/) of trying to have Biden removed from the ballots of certain other conservative-leaning states like Texas or Florida. In particular, former Trump attorney Jenna Ellis argued that, "What is absolutely wild about this opinion from the Colorado Supreme Court is that it contains no limiting principle," leading her to suggest that a court could be persuaded that Biden's handling of illegal immigration could be treated as disqualifying. By contrast, public health policy analyst Pradheep Shanker suggested, "One could argue that since Biden made a deal with Iran to free up their billions of dollars in funds, that he gave aid and comfort to the enemy..." and that such conduct could serve as a potential basis.
Resolution Criteria: This will resolve **Yes** if according to credible sources Joe Biden is unwillingly removed , or ordered to be removed, from any ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election, be it the Democrat primary or the general election. The mechanism of the removal can be either by court order or the direct action of the relevant state government. Voluntary withdrawal from a ballot will not count for resolution, nor will removal based upon the choice of a non-governmental organization like the DNC. If this does not happen before the day of the election in 2024, the question will resolve **No**. Appeals which overturn the initial verdict or action shall not impact the resolution.
Fine Print: In the unlikely event that the election does not take place within calendar year 2024, this will still resolve based upon who would be upon the ballots were they to be printed, although the resolution date shall be pushed back to January 1st, 2025 to allow for a potential late election under such circumstances.
|
2023-12-28T20:47:00Z
|
2024-11-05T03:00:00Z
|
2024-07-22T15:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20768
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
|
The threat of nuclear weapons has loomed over the world since over one hundred thousand were killed when the United States [dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in August of 1945. More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has [elevated the risk](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/) of a nuclear detonation as Russia is one of [nine states](https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/) known to possess nuclear weapons.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, a nuclear weapon detonates and kills at least 10 people. The detonation can occur for any reason, including tests and accidents.
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-02T14:39:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20766
|
Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?
|
India and Pakistan have tense [relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and a [history of conflict](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan), in recent years involving a number of skirmishes at the contested border.
Tensions heightened in June of 2020 when Indian and Chinese forces [clashed in hand to hand combat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Galwan_Valley_clash) along the border, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldier and four Chinese soldiers. Following additional clashes, India and Pakistan [reaffirmed a previous peace accord in February of 2021](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-india-kashmir-islamabad-pakistan-cfe1f0f1f97c2560ff1c71d091718c1a), which was followed by a period of reduced conflict. Still, small skirmishes have continued to occur, most recently in early November 2023 when an [Indian border guard was killed](https://www.rferl.org/a/indian-soldier-killed-kashmir-shots-pakistan-border-guards/32677720.html) during an exchange of weapons fire between border guards for the two countries.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 10 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the armed forces of India and Pakistan caused by confrontation with the armed forces of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.
Fine Print: * Armed forces under government control will qualify, for example [India's paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_India) and [Pakistan's paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_Pakistan).
* Deaths do not need to occur at the same time, or among the same military force, and all deaths among members of the armed forces of either military occurring in calendar year 2024 will count.
* If a range is provided, the lower end of the range must be 10 or more to qualify. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.
* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-07T13:50:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18386
|
Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?
|
On May 17, 2023, [Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-president-lasso-national-assembly-impeachment-proceedings-de9e4a9c59dfcfb75e81df58adb9c4c3). Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as "[muerte cruzada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada)" to dissolve the assembly as he was [facing impeachment proceedings](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/americas/ecuador-president-lasso-impeachment-intl-latam/index.html), but the move also requires that snap elections be convened for both the president and the National Assembly. The snap election is scheduled to be held [on August 20, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election). If no candidate secures a majority or attains 40% of the vote combined with a lead of more than 10% over the second ranked candidate, a runoff will take place [on October 15, 2023](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-who-running-ecuadors-snap-presidential-vote).
Ecuador has been plagued by a rise in violence in recent years, and recent weeks saw the murder of [two local politicians](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-crime-political-killing-election-villavicencio-14a5fd781e52d31855f3fc4e9711ff84) as well as [the murder of a presidential candidate](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/08/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-killed), Fernando Villavicencio, on August 9, 2023. Following the murder of Villavicencio, President Lasso [declared a state of emergency for 60 days](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-villavicencio-killed-in-attack-news-reports).
[InSight Crime estimates](https://insightcrime.org/news/insight-crime-2022-homicide-round-up/#:~:text=Ecuador%3A%2025.9%20per%20100%2C000%20(Pop.%2017%2C797%2C737)) that Ecuador's homicide rate rose from approximately 14 per 100 thousand in 2021 to approximately 26 per 100 thousand in 2022.
<iframe src="https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=VC.IHR.PSRC.P5&locations=EC" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling="no" ></iframe>
[Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election#Opinion_polls) shows [Luisa González](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luisa_Gonz%C3%A1lez), candidate from the [Citizen Revolution Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen_Revolution_Movement) party, in the lead, though as of August 15 Wikipedia currently does not report any polls following the death of Villavicencio.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Luisa González receives the most votes in the first round of Ecuador's election, according to reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: * If it is not obvious that González has received the most votes, such as in the event of a close election, this question will resolve according to the final results as first reported directly by the National Electoral Council of Ecuador or via secondary credible sources. Later recounts or disputes are immaterial for the purposes of this question.
* If final official results are not reported before October 1, 2023, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2023-08-16T18:00:00Z
|
2023-08-19T22:00:00Z
|
2023-08-21T20:40:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18385
|
Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days?
|
On May 17, 2023, [Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-president-lasso-national-assembly-impeachment-proceedings-de9e4a9c59dfcfb75e81df58adb9c4c3). Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as "[muerte cruzada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada)" to dissolve the assembly as he was [facing impeachment proceedings](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/americas/ecuador-president-lasso-impeachment-intl-latam/index.html), but the move also requires that snap elections be convened for both the president and the National Assembly. The snap election is scheduled to be held [on August 20, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election). If no candidate secures a majority or attains 40% of the vote combined with a lead of more than 10% over the second ranked candidate, a runoff will take place [on October 15, 2023](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-who-running-ecuadors-snap-presidential-vote).
Ecuador has been plagued by a rise in violence in recent years, and recent weeks saw the murder of [two local politicians](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-crime-political-killing-election-villavicencio-14a5fd781e52d31855f3fc4e9711ff84) as well as [the murder of a presidential candidate](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/08/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-killed), Fernando Villavicencio, on August 9, 2023. Following the murder of Villavicencio, President Lasso [declared a state of emergency for 60 days](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-villavicencio-killed-in-attack-news-reports), scheduled to end [on October 9](https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2023/08/ecuador-authorities-introduce-national-state-of-emergency-as-of-aug-10-after-assassination-of-presidential-candidate-villavicencio-in-quito-aug-9-update-2).
[InSight Crime estimates](https://insightcrime.org/news/insight-crime-2022-homicide-round-up/#:~:text=Ecuador%3A%2025.9%20per%20100%2C000%20(Pop.%2017%2C797%2C737)) that Ecuador's homicide rate rose from approximately 14 per 100 thousand in 2021 to approximately 26 per 100 thousand in 2022.
<iframe src="https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=VC.IHR.PSRC.P5&locations=EC" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling="no" ></iframe>
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before the existing national state of emergency lapses, credible sources report that the state of emergency in Ecuador has been extended beyond the initial 60 days without lapsing. This question will resolve as **No** if either there is no such reporting before October 10, 2023 or if credible sources report that the national state of emergency in Ecuador has ended.
|
2023-08-16T23:03:00Z
|
2023-10-07T22:00:00Z
|
2023-10-09T01:25:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18366
|
Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?
|
BJP, led by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been ruling India since 2014. It's a right wing, nationalist party that has recently faced much criticism for its measures to curb [freedom](https://rsf.org/en/country/india) [of speech](https://rsf.org/en/india-media-freedom-under-threat), threaten [democracy by targeting academics and institutions](https://thewire.in/education/author-of-paper-on-possible-manipulation-in-2019-polls-quits-ashoka-university) and [ignoring major riots in Manipur](https://thewire.in/politics/elections-2024-india-most-dangerous-phase) by [banning Twitter](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/05/twitter-accused-of-censorship-in-india-as-it-blocks-modi-critics-elon-musk) accounts critical of the ruling party as well as alleged co-conspirators for utilizing NSO's [Pegasus spyware](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pegasus_(spyware)) to spy on opposition leaders like [Rahul Gandhi](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/jul/19/key-modi-rival-rahul-gandhi-among-indian-targets-of-nso-client).
However, BJP still holds popular support. To counter this, the center-to-left wing opposition has formed a coalition christened ['INDIA'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/19/indian-opposition-unites-in-attempt-to-oust-narendra-modi) led by Gandhi. However, it remains to be seen how well they can muster momentum to topple the incumbent - as Congress is seen to be a largely ineffective government by the general populace.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if BJP wins the majority number of seats in the Lok Sabha (lower house), i.e >= 273 seats out of the total 545, as reported by credible news sources.
|
2023-09-02T19:37:00Z
|
2024-04-01T11:00:00Z
|
2024-06-04T20:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18311
|
Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?
|
[CNBC reports](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/10/putin-considers-attending-g20-summit-in-person-setting-up-tense-meeting-with-western-leaders.html):
> Russian President Vladimir Putin is weighing whether to attend his first in-person meeting with Western leaders since his forces invaded Ukraine in 2022, a Kremlin source tells NBC News.
> Putin still hasn’t ruled out appearing in person at the G20 meeting of major economies on Sept. 9-10 in the Indian capital, New Delhi, according to a Kremlin official who did not want to be named because he does not make public statements.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves **Yes** if credible media report that Putin has attended for the G20 summit in person, even if he is not present for the entire duration of the event. Joining via video conference would not qualify for a positive resolution.
|
2023-08-12T23:08:00Z
|
2023-09-08T21:59:00Z
|
2023-09-11T17:29:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18243
|
Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?
|
One of the questions surrounding LK-99 replications is whether they merely demonstrate an unusual degree of diamagnetism. Even if not superconducting, this might represent an interesting advance in material science.
The current strongest known diamagnetic material is pyrolytic graphite, with a magnetic susceptibility of [-4.09e-4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamagnetism).
A room temperature superconductor would be strongly diamagnetic indeed, with a susceptibility of -1.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if a material more strongly diamagnetic than pyrolytic graphite, at room temperature and ambient pressure, is found before 2025. Such a material would have a magnetic susceptibility < -4.09e-4.
Fine Print: This will resolve based on published, peer-reviewed results, with replications.
Room temperature will be defined as any temperature exceeding 293K, with ambient pressure being at most 1.2 atm.
If the material is anisotropic, the measurement should correspond to the most diamagnetic orientation; the material need not be unusually diamagnetic in all directions.
|
2023-08-07T19:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T19:00:00Z
|
2025-01-20T00:19:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18242
|
Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?
|
The supposed room-temperature superconductor LK-99 has inspired lots of discussion. Among the replication attempts are claims that LK-99 is a superconductor at [110K Tc](https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01192).
If it is, that would be a new family of unusually high temperature ambient pressure superconductors. So far, all the high temperature ambient pressure superconductors are based on cuprates or iron.
Early superconductors were all found at very low temperatures, and discoveries above 20K were not made until the 1970s. [High-temperature superconductors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity) are usually defined as those with Tc above 77K, but even superconductors exceeding 30K are fairly unusual materials.
Other superconductor families include metals and metal alloys, nickelates, carbon compounds (fullerenes, nanotubes, diamond, and doped relatives), and some high-pressure families. None of the ceramics and oxides include lead or phosphorous as major constituents.
The propose LK-99 structure is CuO25P6Pb9. It is almost entirely lead, oxygen, and phosphorus.
One of the many questions surround LK-99 is whether the described composition is correct, and in particular whether trace impurities are important. Variant recipes have been suggested, along with questions about replacing the copper with other elements.
Rather than asking whether LK-99 as described superconducts at room temperature, this question asks the much broader question of whether any related material superconducts at a much broader temperature range.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if any lead apatite family material is found to be a superconductor at temperatures above 30K and ambient pressure before 2025.
The lead apatite family will be defined to include any material that:
- Consists of at least 75% by mass of some combination of lead, oxygen, and phosphorous;
- Contains at least 1 phosphorous atom per 3 lead atoms. (For comparison, LK-99 is 97.5% lead, oxygen, and phosphorous, with 2 phosphorous atoms per lead atom.);
- Has an atomic atomic ratio of at least 1:1 Pb:Cu, and;
- Is at least 10% lead by mass.
Fine Print: Resolution will be based on published, peer-reviewed results with published replications.
|
2023-08-07T19:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T19:00:00Z
|
2025-01-19T23:29:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18231
|
Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?
|
In the midst of [increasing legal challenges](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61084161), Donald Trump remains the [most likely Republican nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/) for President in 2024.
Trump can win the nomination via the [2024 Republican Presidential Primary](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/republican-candidates-2024-gop-presidential-hopefuls-list/).
The first major event of the Primary is the first sanctioned debate. Seven candidates have [qualified](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/republican-candidates-2024-gop-presidential-hopefuls-list/), including Trump. However, Trump has not said whether he will participate in the debate. In July, he [said in an interview](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/16/donald-trump-republican-primary-debate-00106498):
> Ronald Reagan didn’t do it and a lot of other people didn’t do it. When you have a big lead, you don’t do it.
> We have a lead of 50 and 60 points in some cases. … You’re leading people by 50 and 60 points, you say why would you be doing a debate? It’s actually not fair. Why would you let somebody that’s at zero or one or two or three be popping you with questions?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if Donald Trump is on the debate stage as a participant for the first Republican presidential debate, which is [currently scheduled](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/20/guide-republican-presidential-primary-debate-00102702) for August 23, 2023 in Milwaukee, WI.
Fine Print: If the date of the debate is moved, or if the scheduled debate is cancelled, the question resolves based on whether Trump participates in the first debate of the 2024 presidential election season that is [sanctioned by the Republican National Committee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums#:~:text=The%20Republican%20National%20Committee%20(RNC,official%20RNC%2Dsanctioned%20primary%20debates.)).
If no debates are held, the question is annulled.
|
2023-08-09T14:00:00Z
|
2023-08-24T01:00:00Z
|
2023-08-24T03:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18229
|
Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
One of the potential risks to Donald Trump’s presidential hopes in 2024 is whether a high profile Republican presidential candidate opts to run as an independent, sapping votes from centrist voters who dislike the former President but would otherwise vote along with their party.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if, on the date of the US Presidential Election in 2024, both of these conditions are true:
- A candidate who earned at least one delegate in the 2024 Republican Primary is actively campaigning for the office of US President in 2024
- That same candidate is not listed as the nominee of the Republican (or Democratic) party in 26 or more US states.
For this question, the candidate may not be nominated by the Republican or Democratic party for any reason. They may start their own party, join another third-party, campaign as an independent, or claim to be a Republican but not receive the party's endorsement, asking voters to write them in.
The determination of whether a candidate is considered to be "actively campaigning" will be at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.
Fine Print: In this question, the District of Columbia is included as a US State.
The date of the US Presidential Election will be the date when polls are open for in-person voting in 26 or more US States (currently scheduled for November 5, 2024). If there is no such date occurring between October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2025, this question will be annulled.
|
2023-08-07T23:55:00Z
|
2024-11-06T01:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T17:46:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18221
|
Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?
|
In June the [Russian Federal Security Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Security_Service) (FSB) [issued a public statement](http://www.fsb.ru/fsb/press/message/single.htm%21id%3D10439739%40fsbMessage.html) claiming that Apple collaborates heavily with American Intelligence Agencies, particularly the [US National Security Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Agency) (NSA), and sends them Russian data. That did not prevent numerous Russian officials from taking photos with their iPhones [during the economic forum in Saint-Petersburg though](https://t.me/faridaily24/933).
However, at the end of June there [were reports](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/22/russian-govt-officials-banned-from-bringing-iphones-into-cabinet-meetings-report-a81590) that Russian government officials were barred from using their iPhones during cabinet meetings. On July 16, 2023, there [were reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-moves-to-ban-iphones-for-government-officials-2023-7) that some Russian government ministries were barring employees from using iPhones on the job.
On August 2, 2023, [Russia's Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roskomnadzor) (Roskomnadzor), [was reported](https://tass.ru/obschestvo/18433053) (according to machine translation) to have denied claims that they were preparing to ban the sale of Apple equipment.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that any of these three things has happened before January 1, 2025:
1. A Presidential decree is issued banning Apple products in Russia
2. Roskomnadzor issues a public ban on Apple products in Russia
or
3. a federal law is passed by the legislature and signed by Putin, banning Apple products in Russia
For the purposes of this question a "ban" will be considered to be a prohibition on the sale of Apple products in Russia. The ban need not take effect before January 1, 2025, only the issuance or enactment of a law that will ban the sale of Apple products is required.
Fine Print: A ban with some exceptions will still be considered to be a ban so long as information from credible sources indicates that Apple products cannot be sold to most of the public in Russia.
|
2023-08-11T16:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18192
|
Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?
|
On July 24, 2023, Israel [passed a new law](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-leaves-hospital-israel-faces-key-vote-legal-changes-rcna95881) that [weakens the power of the courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform). Known as the "reasonableness" law, the new law limits the ability of Israeli courts to hear cases brought on the grounds that an administrative decision was "unreasonable".
The new law amends Israel's [Basic Law regarding the judiciary](https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/documents/BasicLawsPDF/BasicLawTheJudiciary.pdf). Israel does not have a formal written constitution, instead the [Knesset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knesset) has passed a series of [Basic Laws](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Laws_of_Israel) that "[established the foundations of the system of government and the rights of the individual](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/constitution-of-israel)." The translated full text of the new law [reads](https://www.timesofisrael.com/committee-hardens-reasonableness-bill-strengthening-protection-for-government/):
>Notwithstanding what is stated in this Basic Law, whoever has judicial authority according to law, including the Supreme Court in its seating as the High Court of Justice, will not discuss the reasonableness of a decision of the government, of the prime minister or of another minister, and will not issue an order on the aforementioned matter.
The Israeli High Court has agreed to consider a number of petitions against the law. The petitions will be [heard on September 12, 2023](https://www.timesofisrael.com/unprecedented-15-judge-panel-to-hear-petitions-against-coalitions-reasonableness-law/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the High Court of Israel upholds the "reasonableness" law. To be considered upheld the court must reject the petitions against the law or otherwise issue a final ruling that allows the law to remain in effect. An interim ruling not directly on the merits, such as freezing or delaying implementation, does not qualify.
Fine Print: If no such ruling is issued before October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2023-08-11T14:13:00Z
|
2023-12-01T14:00:00Z
|
2024-01-02T10:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18191
|
Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?
|
On July 24, 2023, Israel [passed a new law](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-leaves-hospital-israel-faces-key-vote-legal-changes-rcna95881) that [weakens the power of the courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform). Known as the "reasonableness" law, the new law limits the ability of Israeli courts to hear cases brought on the grounds that an administrative decision was "unreasonable".
The new law amends Israel's [Basic Law regarding the judiciary](https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/documents/BasicLawsPDF/BasicLawTheJudiciary.pdf). Israel does not have a formal written constitution, instead the [Knesset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knesset) has passed a series of [Basic Laws](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Laws_of_Israel) that "[established the foundations of the system of government and the rights of the individual](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/constitution-of-israel)." The translated full text of the new law [reads](https://www.timesofisrael.com/committee-hardens-reasonableness-bill-strengthening-protection-for-government/):
>Notwithstanding what is stated in this Basic Law, whoever has judicial authority according to law, including the Supreme Court in its seating as the High Court of Justice, will not discuss the reasonableness of a decision of the government, of the prime minister or of another minister, and will not issue an order on the aforementioned matter.
The Israeli High Court has agreed to consider a number of petitions against the law. The petitions will be [heard on September 12, 2023](https://www.timesofisrael.com/unprecedented-15-judge-panel-to-hear-petitions-against-coalitions-reasonableness-law/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Israeli High Court has issued a ruling on the "reasonableness" law. The ruling must either uphold or strike down the law in whole or in part; a ruling not on the merits, such as freezing or delaying implementation, does not qualify.
|
2023-08-03T14:00:00Z
|
2023-09-30T22:00:00Z
|
2023-10-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18190
|
Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?
|
Former President Donald Trump was [indicted for the third time](https://apnews.com/article/trump-indicted-jan-6-investigation-special-counsel-debb59bb7a4d9f93f7e2dace01feccdc) on August 1, 2023, on felony charges related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Six anonymous co-conspirators are listed in [the indictment](https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23893878/trump-dc-indictment.pdf). While the co-conspirators are anonymous, the details in the indictment are sufficient to allege their identities. [CNN alleges](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/01/politics/co-conspirators-trump-indictment/index.html) that the known co-conspirators are as follows:
* Co-conspirator 1: [Rudy Giuliani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudy_Giuliani)
* Co-conspirator 2: [John Eastman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Eastman)
* Co-conspirator 3: [Sidney Powell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidney_Powell)
* Co-conspirator 4: [Jeffrey Clark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Clark)
* Co-conspirator 5: [Kenneth Chesebro](https://www.cambridgeday.com/2022/11/16/cambridge-lawyer-chesebro-gets-some-spotlight-for-work-helping-trump-overturn-2020-election/)
* Co-conspirator 6: identity unknown
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after August 2, 2023 and before August 11, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that any of the following people have been indicted for a federal felony:
* Rudy Giuliani
* John Eastman
* Sidney Powell
* Jeffrey Clark
* Kenneth Chesebro
Any federal felony indictment qualifies, and need not be directly related to Donald Trump's election interference indictment.
Fine Print: Whether the indictment is sealed or not is immaterial, only whether credible sources report that one of the listed persons has been indicted.
|
2023-08-03T14:00:00Z
|
2023-08-10T22:00:00Z
|
2023-08-11T13:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18186
|
Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?
|
*The resolution criteria and some of the background have been copied and edited from [this shorter term question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18181/ecowas-intervention-2023/).*
---
On 26 July 2023, a [coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) occured in Niger when the presidential guard detained president Mohamed Bazoum. The next day, the military recognised the junta, and on 28 July, ringleader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tchiani officially proclaimed himself as the President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. This is the 4th coup in an [ECOWAS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Community_of_West_African_States) (Economic Community of West African States) country since 2021. Alongside international condemnation of the coup, ECOWAS [issued an ultimatum](https://www.voanews.com/a/eu-us-join-ecowas-in-call-for-niger-military-junta-to-halt-coup/7204716.html) on 30 July that all necessary measures, which may include the use of force, will be taken if Bazoum is not reinstated as president within one week.
ECOWAS has a [history of military intervention](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/1/timeline-a-history-of-ecowas-military-interventions-in-three-decades) in local conflicts with a potential for regional destabilization, including in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, and The Gambia.
On August 6th the [deadline had passed](https://www.voanews.com/a/west-african-leaders-to-meet-on-niger-after-junta-defies-deadline/7215069.html), and as of August 9, 2023, ECOWAS has not launched a military intervention, [saying it will hold a second emergency summit](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/ecowas-calls-for-second-emergency-summit-to-discuss-niger-coup) on Thursday August 10th.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2023, ECOWAS has announced a military intervention in Niger to restore the government of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and civilian rule, and there are credible media reports of troops acting as part of an ECOWAS mission entering or attempting to enter the territory of Niger.
|
2023-08-10T16:43:00Z
|
2023-10-01T00:00:00Z
|
2023-10-03T14:59:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18181
|
Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?
|
On 26 July 2023, a [coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) occured in Niger when the presidential guard detained president Mohamed Bazoum. The next day, the military recognised the junta, and on 28 July, ringleader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tchiani officially proclaimed himself as the President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. This is the 4th coup in an [ECOWAS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Community_of_West_African_States) (Economic Community of West African States) country since 2021. Alongside international condemnation of the coup, ECOWAS [issued an ultimatum](https://www.voanews.com/a/eu-us-join-ecowas-in-call-for-niger-military-junta-to-halt-coup/7204716.html) on 30 July that all necessary measures, which may include the use of force, will be taken if Bazoum is not reinstated as president within one week.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before August 12, 2023, ECOWAS has announced a military intervention in Niger to restore the government of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and civilian rule, and there are credible media reports of troops acting as part of an ECOWAS mission entering or attempting to enter the territory of Niger.
|
2023-08-03T14:00:00Z
|
2023-08-11T22:00:00Z
|
2023-08-12T11:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18177
|
Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
|
On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called ["The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **YES** if a peer-reviewed replication of the superconductivity of LK-99 that confirms the main findings is published before January 1, 2025. The replication must be conducted by researchers at institution(s) independent from the authors of the original study.
A confirmatory replication would have to include the following:
* Reproduction of the synthesis of LK-99
* Confirmation that the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (126.85C) — the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting
* Confirmation that the resistivity drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 Ω·cm — true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature
To be considered a confirmed replication the research must replicate all of the above.
Fine Print: * Resolves ambiguous if there are no credible reports of a peer-reviewed replication attempt before January 1, 2025.
* Metaculus will make a determination as to whether a replication satisfies these criteria and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear.
|
2023-08-01T07:05:00Z
|
2024-12-31T17:00:00Z
|
2025-01-08T21:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18170
|
Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?
|
A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, [describes a new material known as LK-99](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) which the authors claim exhibits [superconducting properties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity) at room temperature and ambient pressure. The [veracity of the results are uncertain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/), but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it [could revolutionize the electronics industry](https://theconversation.com/room-temperature-superconductors-could-revolutionize-electronics-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-materials-potential-201849).
Previous efforts in [high-temperature superconductivity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity#History) have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 [gigapascals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal_(unit)) (GPa) and [below 138 Kelvin](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9417328/) (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent [research](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0) has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim [has been called into question](https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/).
<img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg" alt="Timeline of Superconductivity" />
*<a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg">PJRay</a>, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0">CC BY-SA 4.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons (note that this figure may contain outdated information or research that has not been replicated, see the [file description](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg) for key)*
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a superconductor has been used in a commercial application at room temperature and ambient pressure. For the purposes of this question a commercial application will be considered to be one which is used as an intermediate product in the production of another product or service, or in other words not a novelty item or toy.
To qualify, all of the following must be confirmed by publicly available information about the superconductor itself or must have been demonstrated through credible published research for the material of which the superconductor is made:
* The superconductor has been used in a fully-functional commercial product (testing, development, or research and design do not qualify)
* The superconductor operates at a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius or higher
* The superconductor operates at a pressure of 2 atmospheres or less
* The superconductor satisfies standard criteria typically used to define a superconductor, such as exhibiting the Meissner effect and having zero or negligible resistance below the critical temperature.
Fine Print: Metaculus will make a determination as to whether these criteria are satisfied and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear.
|
2023-08-01T12:40:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-08T21:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18161
|
Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?
|
On July 26, 2023, Nigerien President [Mohamed Bazoum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Bazoum) was [deposed in a military coup](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66320895). According to [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/30/west-african-govts-give-niger-coup-leaders-a-week-to-cede-power):
>West African countries have imposed sanctions on Niger’s new military leaders, threatening to use force if they fail to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum within a week, after the latest coup in the Sahel region raised alarm on the continent.
>
> . . .
>
>And the African Union has given the military in Niger two weeks to restore “constitutional authority”.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Mohamed Bazoum has been effectively re-instated as President of Niger before August 31, 2023, otherwise it will resolve **No**.
Fine Print: * For the purposes of this question "effectively re-instated" will be defined as credible sources reporting that Mohamed Bazoum holds the presidency **and** is capable of exerting presidential authority. Metaculus will make an assessment of whether Bazoum is capable of exerting presidential authority based on reports from credible sources. Characterizations from credible sources similar to those listed below may be considered as strong evidence. Note that this list is not exhaustive:
* Bazoum has returned to power
* The coup has failed
* The constitution has been reinstated
* In the event reports conflict or are unclear Metaculus may resolve the question as **ambiguous**.
|
2023-08-03T14:00:00Z
|
2023-08-30T22:00:00Z
|
2023-09-01T17:57:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18133
|
Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?
|
On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called ["The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.
*Background information copied from [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/)*
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before August 4, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a preprint or paper describing a complete replication attempt of the LK-99 results has been published. To be considered a complete replication attempt the paper must test the main findings of the original paper, including all of the following:
* The synthesis of LK-99
* Testing whether the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (127 C) — the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting
* Testing whether the resistance drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 Ω·cm — true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature
The results of the replication are irrelevant for the purposes of this question.
Fine Print: * To be considered a preprint or a paper for the purposes of this question the attempted replication must be complete and the methodology and results must be published in a manuscript accessible by the public.
* Later retractions or claims questioning the veracity of the replication attempt will be irrelevant for the purposes of this question, it will resolve according to the first assessment made by Metaculus.
* Metaculus may rely on reporting from credible sources to assess whether these criteria have been met, and for papers not published in English Metaculus may use credible reporting or machine translation as appropriate. In the event it is unclear whether a paper has met these requirements Metaculus will make a determination as to the appropriate resolution, including waiting for further confirmation, as needed, or may resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.
|
2023-07-29T13:00:00Z
|
2023-08-03T22:00:00Z
|
2023-08-01T03:04:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18102
|
Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?
|
The oil storage vessel FSO Safer holds more than 1.1 million barrels of oil (four times that of Exxon Valdez), and has for the past few years been moored off the coast of Yemen. [An operation began on July 25th to remove the oil from the vessel:](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/un-oil-tanker-salvage-operation-begins-in-yemen-1.6916853)
> An international team began siphoning oil out of a decrepit oil tanker off the coast of Yemen on Tuesday, the United Nations chief said, a crucial step in a complex salvage operation.
However,
> The vessel has not been maintained for eight years and its structural integrity is compromised, making it at risk of breaking up or exploding.
As of July 25, the oil is,
> being moved to another vessel which had been purchased by the UN. The oil transfer came after months of on-site preparatory work and is scheduled to be completed in less than three weeks.
[The United Nations (UN) says](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1139057) the transfer
> will continue round-the-clock over the next 19 days.
This puts the estimated last date of transfer on August 13.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the oil transfer is completed before August 14, 2023. It resolves **No** otherwise.
Fine Print: * This question is concerned with reports about the transfer of oil being completed, cleaning residue from tanks and other follow-up operations are irrelevant for the purposes of this question.
* This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are credible reports that the transfer has been completed, regardless of whether an oil leak or other disaster occurs.
|
2023-07-29T15:00:00Z
|
2023-08-13T10:00:00Z
|
2023-08-11T15:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18090
|
Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
|
On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called ["The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **YES** if the first attempted replication of the superconductivity of LK-99 that is published (pre-print acceptable) confirms the main findings. The replication must be conducted by researchers at institution(s) independent from the authors of the original study.
A confirmatory replication would have to include the following:
* Reproduction of the synthesis of LK-99
* Confirmation that the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (126.85C) — the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting
* Confirmation that the resistivity drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 Ω·cm — true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature
To be considered an attempted replication the research must attempt to replicate all of the above, or demonstrate that one or more of these claims is false through independent testing.
Fine Print: * Resolves ambiguous if there are no credible reports of an attempted replication before July 1, 2024
* If the pre-print is withdrawn from arxiv and a new version of this paper, by one or more of the original authors and which satisfies these resolution criteria, is not published before July 1, 2024, and no independent replication has been performed before July 1, 2024, this question will resolve as **NO**. A new version of the original paper, as described, will not be considered to be a replication. If the paper is withdrawn and then the first independent replication is published before a new version of the paper is published, this question will resolve according to the results of the independent replication.
* Metaculus will make a determination as to whether a replication satisfies these criteria and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear
|
2023-07-26T20:45:00Z
|
2024-07-01T16:00:00Z
|
2023-08-01T04:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18069
|
Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?
|
Antarctic sea ice is a [vital component](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-climate-antarctic-sea-ice-extent) of the Earth's climate system.
The 2023 Antarctic sea ice season set a [record low](https://nsidc.org/news-analyses/news-stories/antarctic-sea-ice-settles-record-low-2023) in 2023, with the minimum sea ice extent for the year measuring 136,000 square kilometers less than the previous record low set in 2022.
September usually represents the [maximum](https://nsidc.org/learn/ask-scientist/how-does-antarctic-sea-ice-differ-arctic-sea-ice) for Antarctic sea ice, which on typically covers an area of more than 18 million square kilometers at its annual maximum extent.
However, the sea ice level in 2023 is at [historic lows](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-early-winter-record-low-june-2023#:~:text=In%20the%20midst%20of%20its,as%20of%20June%2027%2C%202023.).
> After reaching a record-low summer minimum earlier this year, Antarctic sea ice continues to break records. In the midst of its winter growth phase, it has reached a record-low extent, far below the previous record, for this time of year.
> Data archived by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) record Antarctic sea ice extent at 4.5 million square miles (11.7 million square kilometers) as of June 27, 2023. That’s nearly a million square miles (2.6 million square kilometers) below the 1981–2010 average, and approaching a half a million square miles (1.2 million square kilometers) below the previous lowest extent for the day, observed in 2022.
<img src="https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/embedded_gif_full_width/public/2023-06/Antarctic_dailyseaice_1979-27Jun.png?itok=wDWIeB70" alt="Antarctic daily sea ice" />
<img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F10efmhaUAA2dKA?format=jpg&name=medium" alt="Daily Standard Deviation of Antarctic Sea Ice" />
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves based on the [Antarctic Sea Ice Extent](https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) reported by the [National Snow & Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/home).
The question resolves **Yes** if the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is less on every single day from September 1st, 2023 to September 30th, 2023 compared to the same dates in all years since satellite tracking started in 1979.
The question immediately resolves **No** if the extent of Antarctic Sea Ice for any date between September 1, 2023 and September 30, 2023 exceeds the extent for the same day in any year between 1979 and 2022.
Fine Print: Forecasters exploring the data from the resolution source should be sure to switch the sea ice extent to "Antarctic."
|
2023-07-31T21:19:00Z
|
2023-09-30T18:00:00Z
|
2023-10-01T15:33:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18068
|
Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?
|
Mark Zuckerberg launched a twitter competitor, Threads, on July 5, 2023. On the first day after launch, Zuckerberg [claimed](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-06/millions-sign-up-to-meta-twitter-rival-app-threads-in-hours/102572568) 30 million users signed up.
Threads launched on [Android](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.instagram.barcelona&hl=en_US&gl=US) and [iOS](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/threads-an-instagram-app/id6446901002) under the name "Threads, an Instagram App". As of July 25, there is no way to access Threads content without using iOS, Android, or an emulator of one of those on another operating system.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if, before October 1, 2023 Meta makes available a website to access and post Threads content.
Fine Print: The website must be generally available to users of desktop computers using typical web browsers. Requiring emulation of Android or iOS doesn't qualify. The website must be an official Meta website, not a third party with a way of accessing Android or iOS content. The website must be distinctly for Threads, it isn't sufficient if Threads content becomes available from another existing Meta web property like facebook.com or instagram.com.
|
2023-07-29T15:00:00Z
|
2023-09-30T19:00:00Z
|
2023-08-24T17:14:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18059
|
Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?
|
On July 17, 2023, Russia [announced](https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-black-sea-grain-deal-over/) that it had quit the [Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative). The Black Sea grain deal had been in force since July of 2022, protecting maritime grain shipments leaving Ukrainian ports.
Following the end of the deal Russia's defense ministry [was reported as saying](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/20/russia-warns-ships-traveling-to-ukraine-considered-part-of-war)
>. . . that it would deem all ships travelling to Ukraine to be potentially carrying military cargo on behalf of Kyiv and “the flag countries of such ships will be considered parties to the Ukrainian conflict”.
Discussing fallout from the end of the deal, [Politico describes](https://www.politico.eu/article/the-black-sea-grain-deal-is-all-but-dead-what-next/) approaches Ukraine is undertaking to export grain:
>Ukraine has been readying a backup plan to get its grain shipments out without the deal. This hinges in part on a $500 million guarantee fund to cover any damages or expenses incurred by ships moving through the Black Sea and in part on shipping more grain out through Europe’s Danube river.
>
>Before the war, a few hundred thousand tons per month were exported via this route. Over the last year, this has increased to 2 million, and there is potential to double this figure, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association.
In [an article for Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-25/nato-convoys-can-protect-ukraine-s-grain-harvest-from-putin?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner) published on July 25, 2023, retired US Navy admiral James Stavridis proposed that US and NATO convoys should protect maritime shipments in the Black Sea.
Türkiye [closed the Bosphorus Strait to warships](https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/turkey-closes-the-dardanelles-and-bosphorus-to-warships/) in late February 2022, shortly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, invoking its authority under the 1936 [Montreux Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits). Since that time US warships have not been reported to have entered the Black Sea, though in February of 2023 a US warship [was reported](https://news.usni.org/2023/02/03/u-s-destroyer-operating-near-the-black-sea-for-first-time-since-russia-invaded-ukraine) to have passed through the [Dardanelles Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_straits), entering the Sea of Marmara and stopping near Instanbul and the Gölcük Naval Base.
<img src="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2017.08.18/chart3.png" alt="Map of Turkish Straits" />
*[Image Source: US Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=32552)*
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 25, 2023, and before September 25, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a US warship has entered the Black Sea.
Fine Print: * To be considered to have entered the Black Sea the warship must be credibly reported to have passed through the Bosphorus Strait into the Black Sea.
* For the purposes of this question a "warship" will be a ship primarily intended for naval warfare and will include submarines.
* Metaculus may wait for confirmation from multiple sources to resolve the question. If reports conflict or the credibility or clarity of a report is suspect, Metaculus may make a determination as to the appropriate resolution and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.
|
2023-07-26T15:00:00Z
|
2023-09-24T22:00:00Z
|
2023-09-25T13:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18047
|
Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?
|
On 2023-07-23, Spaniards went to the polls to elect the 15th Cortes Generales. The election resulted in a hung Congress of Deputies; center-right PP is the biggest party, but its 136 seats are far short of the 176 needed for a majority in the 350-strong chamber.
Runners-up were the PSOE, PP's center-left rival, with a surprising 122 seats - a gain of two compared to projected losses based on pre-election polls. Next come right-wing Vox and left-wing Sumar, with 33 and 31 seats respectively. The balance, 28 seats, is accounted for by seven regionalist parties of various affiliations in the left-right spectrum.
This suggests coalition talks might prove difficult. The only possible two-party majority would be a PP-PSOE government, but such a German-style "grand coalition" is unheard of in the Spanish political tradition. Junts, a Catalan independentist party that holds seven seats and is seen as "big tent" in the left-right spectrum, is seen as kingmakers; however, their main platform plank of Catalan independence is strongly opposed by both major parties.
After decades of parliaments lasting for most of their terms, Spain has in recent years seen two elections, in December 2015 and April 2019, fail to produce lasting governments. These ballots were succeeded by others in June 2016 and November 2019, both of which resulted in longer-lasting Cortes.
In this scenario, the question arises: will Spain call another election soon?
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2024, a dissolution of the Spanish Congress has been announced, with a snap election called.
Fine Print: The official act that counts for the resolution is a royal proclamation of dissolution. No other acts are required; in particular, the election date need not have been set or occurred yet. It is immaterial to the question whether some government is formed and collapses, or if no investiture is possible, as well as which government remains as caretaker.
|
2023-08-02T04:19:00Z
|
2024-02-28T22:59:00Z
|
2024-03-04T15:22:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-18007
|
Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?
|
Most good universities in the US have required undergraduate applicants to write admissions essays. As of mid 2023, Harvard and Stanford require the "first-year essay prompts" in the [Common Application](https://www.commonapp.org/apply/essay-prompts); Harvard also [requires](https://college.harvard.edu/guides/application-tips) a "Personal Essay"; Stanford [requires](https://admission.stanford.edu/apply/first-year/apply.html) 3 "short essay questions"; and MIT [requires](https://mitadmissions.org/apply/firstyear/essays-activities-academics/) 4 short "response questions".
With the advent of OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude, and other LLMs, it has been widely reported that students assigned essays (that are not done proctored in the classroom) are commonly turning to AI to write their essays whole cloth, or to provide drafts, outlines, or revisions. There is some [speculation that this will cause some universities to drop the essay requirement](https://twitter.com/ciphergoth/status/1682492210342936576), though it is unclear whether they will, or when, or which universities.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT do not require any "essays" in their standard undergraduate application for admission for the school year starting in fall 2024.
Fine Print: "Essay" here means at least 100 words of text in response to a question prompt. Doesn't count short entries for factual information such as "describe your needs for financial support".
"Standard" here means the default application as seen on the admissions sites (links in background section). It is not relevant for this question if there are exceptional cases where some applicants do / don't have the same requirements.
|
2023-07-24T00:32:00Z
|
2023-10-01T19:00:00Z
|
2023-08-24T23:20:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17995
|
Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?
|
Historically, the [Black Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea) has been the battleground of numerous conflicts resulting in the loss of Naval vessels. The most recent and on-going conflict is the [Russo-Ukrainian war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War).
From the onset of the war, most of the conflict has taken place on land, however the Black Sea has also seen significant naval conflict.
The region is host to the [Russian Navy's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Navy) [Black Sea Fleet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet) (BSF) which boasts a fleet of around 40 vessels ranging from large frigates (up to 5,400 tonne), smaller corvettes (up to 2,200 tonne), as well as [submarines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilo-class_submarine).
<small>Note: See [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Navy_ships) for Wikipedia's list of active Russian Navy vessels (sort for Black Sea Fleet)</small>
The [Ukrainian Navy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Navy) on the other hand has a minuscule fleet, consisting mainly of auxiliary vessels and fast-attack crafts. All of Ukraine's larger vessels were lost as a result of the war; her final large surface vessel, the frigate *Hetman Sahaidachny*, was scuttled by Ukrainian forces to prevent her capture.
<small>Note: See [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Ukrainian_Navy_ships) for Wikipedia's list of active Ukrainian Navy vessels</small>
Whilst a large *proportion* of Ukrainian Navy vessels have been lost, the Russian Navy has lost a large *number* of vessels. In the BSF’s attempt to establish and maintain naval supremacy in the Black Sea, a number of smaller and larger vessels have been lost, perhaps most notably the fleet's *ex-*flagship vessel, the cruiser [ *Moskva* (Moscow)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_cruiser_Moskva) on 14 April 2022 as a result of Ukrainian land-based anti-ship missile strikes.
The [Turkish Navy](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Naval_Forces) is another navy who operate in the Black Sea. Turkey has huge strategic influence over the region as they have a degree of control over the [Bosporus Strait](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosporus ) as a result of the [Montreux Convention](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits).
The [US Navy](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Navy) has also frequently transited the Bosporus Strait and entered the region. In the Cold War, a [ramming incident](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Black_Sea_bumping_incident) occurred between US and Soviet navies. More recent confrontation came about when a [Russian Su-27 downed a US MQ-9 Reaper UAV](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Black_Sea_drone_incident ) over the Black Sea in March 2023.
Given the importance of the Black Sea, as well as the substantial amount of on-going military conflict, it is entirely possible that one or more navy vessel(s) operating in the area may be lost.
________________________________________________________
**N.B.** Wikipedia's *[List of ship losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ship_losses_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War)* provides an exhaustive list of navy *and* civilian ship losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War (as well as Russia's Invasion of Crimea).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve ***Yes*** if reputable sources report that a Navy vessel that displaces ≥500 tonnes has either been:
- sunk;
- destroyed;
- scuttled;
- captured; or
- critically damaged
whilst operating in the Black Sea before Jan 1, 2025.
Alternatively, if multiple smaller Navy vessels displacing <500 tonnes are lost, but their cumulative displacements are ≥500 tonnes, this question will also resolve ***Yes***. These vessels need not be lost in a single battle / event.
Fine Print: For the purposes of this question:
- A 'Navy' ship is a sea-going vessel which belongs to the Navy of a nation's Armed Forces.
- A Naval vessel belonging to *any* nation will be valid for this question.
- Accidental events as a result of 'friendly fire' (e.g. a vessel hitting it's own mine) count towards the resolution. Other accidental events such as a Navy vessel colliding with a merchant vessel or colliding with a harbour structure also count towards the resolution since such events are deemed to be highly unlikely.
- Officially (stated by Navy sources) decommissioned vessels *do not* count towards the resolution.
- Auxiliary Navy vessels (including Floating Docks) do not count towards the resolution.
Moreover:
- *Sunk*. Ship is at the bottom of the Black Sea.
- *Destroyed*. Ship is catastrophically damaged and likely at the bottom of the Black Sea.
- *Scuttled*. A ship deliberately destroyed / sunk by her own armed forces to prevent capture.
- *Captured*. Taken over by opposing forces and *successfully* taken to a home or occupied port.
- *Critically damaged*. Damaged to the point where it cannot sail under it's own power (would likely require both a tow to port and be kept there for repairs for a substantial period of time).
|
2023-08-01T15:16:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00Z
|
2023-08-05T05:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17992
|
Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?
|
After the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya had its first free election in some 50-odd years, seeing their [electoral democracy index (as judged by V-Dem) spike at above 0.5](https://ourworldindata.org/democracy). In its 2014 election, Libya appointed a House of Representatives as its government.
The validity of this election was questioned by other political bodies, among them the previous interim government that was to be replaced with the House of Representatives. This situation culminated in the second Libyan civil war.
In the past nine years since 2014, Libya has been ruled by multiple rival governments in control over various parts of the country. Multiple attempts have been made to unify these governments, of which many have broken down one way or another.
Currently, Libya is ruled by the transitional Government of National Unity, supported by the House of Representatives. (Although some sources claim the Government of National Unity is opposed by parts of the House of Representatives and several other smaller political organisations.) The Government of National Unity has a president as head of state and in command of the armed forces. This position is currently held by al-Menfi, who was appointed as part of the ongoing peace process.
A free election for the Presidential position has been planned and postponed repeatedly, mainly over conflict about the process and rules for running. The most recent postponement at the end of 2022 did not come with the announcement of a new timeframe. With the last postponement, the electoral democracy index of Libya has taken another dive. That said, a UN envoy says that a new election is in process, and the incumbent prime minister promises 2023 will be a year of elections.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **yes** if a credible source reports that presidential elections have taken place in Libya before January 1, 2025. Otherwise it resolves **no**.
If Libya ceases to be recognised as a country by the UN, the question resolves **ambiguous**.
|
2023-08-05T05:07:00Z
|
2024-12-31T11:00:00Z
|
2025-01-08T22:07:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17990
|
Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?
|
[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords):
> The Abraham Accords are a series of joint normalization statements initially between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, effective since September 15, 2020.
The Accords were later joined by Morocco (2020) and Sudan (2021). As part of the dual agreements, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco recognized Israel's sovereignty, enabling the establishment of full diplomatic relations.
The Biden Administration has made it a priority to include Saudi Arabia in the Abraham Accords, including appointing former U.S. Ambassador Daniel Shapiro as Senior Advisor for Regional Integration, tasked to "[deepen and broaden the Abraham Accords](https://twitter.com/secblinken/status/1674415194175406080?s=43&t=vY0_bWTIV7xGoG_yX6ppxQ)".
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Saudi Arabia and Israel have established diplomatic relations. For the purposes of this question, diplomatic relations will be considered to be established when a mutual agreement to establish diplomatic relations is announced.
Fine Print: * Saudi Arabia need not sign the Abraham Accords for this question to resolve as **Yes** so long as an agreement to establish diplomatic relations is announced.
* This question does not require any steps to be taken to fulfill normalization, only the announcement of a mutual agreement to establish diplomatic relations.
|
2023-08-06T18:46:00Z
|
2025-01-19T22:59:00Z
|
2025-01-21T14:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17989
|
Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?
|
According [to the bill](https://www.grassley.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/eats_act.pdf), the act is intended "to prevent States and local jurisdictions from interfering with the production and distribution of agricultural products in interstate commerce, and for other purposes."
The “Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression Act” (EATS) bill was introduced in the US Senate on June 15, 2023 by Senators Roger Marshall (R-KS), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), John Cornyn (R-TX), Tom Cotton (R-AR), Deb Fischer (R-NE), Joni Ernst (R-IA), and Eric Schmitt (R-MO).
[Critics](https://mercyforanimals.org/blog/dangerous-new-legislation/) and [proponents](https://www.nationalhogfarmer.com/news/eats-act-aims-preserve-interstate-ag-trade) alike say that the legislation is a response to the Supreme Court of the United States’ recent decision to uphold Proposition 12, a law that [prohibits "the sale of eggs, pork, and/or veal from caged animals raised anywhere in the world"](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23745935/proposition-12-pigs-pork-california-eggs-veal-hens).
[Critics of the EATS Act](https://mercyforanimals.org/blog/dangerous-new-legislation/) argue that the bill would worsen animal welfare across the country:
> The EATS Act, if passed, would increase suffering for the vast majority of land animals raised for food in the United States and reverse decades of progress for hens, pigs, and calves. It would invalidate crucial anti-confinement laws in numerous states throughout the country and could prevent other states from adopting similar policies in the future.
[Proponents](https://www.nationalhogfarmer.com/news/eats-act-aims-preserve-interstate-ag-trade) say that the act would preserve interstate agricultural trade and prevent undue interference by state and local governments:
> The legislation prohibits state and local governments from interfering with agricultural production nationwide, while preserving their ability to regulate farming and ranching within their jurisdictions.
> [...]
> California's Proposition 12 imposes onerous standards on pork products sold in the state, regardless of where the pigs are raised. The policy would add significant costs to pork producers and consumers across the nation. Iowa was among 20 states to file an amicus brief opposing the law in 2021.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve 'Yes' if the US House of Representatives votes to approve the EATS Act by January 3, 2024.
This question will resolve 'No' if the US House of Representatives does not vote to approve the EATS Act by January 3, 2024.
|
2023-07-21T21:42:00Z
|
2024-01-02T20:00:00Z
|
2024-01-04T20:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17988
|
Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?
|
There have been two separate [outbreaks of Marburg virus](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2023-DON467) in Africa in 2023; one in Equatorial Guinea and one in Tanzania, but by June 8th, both outbreaks were reported over, ["after two consecutive incubation periods (42 days) without a new confirmed case reported"](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2023-DON472).
> The Marburg virus is a filovirus (a cousin of Ebola viruses), causing a hemorrhagic
> fever similar to that of the Ebola virus. Like Ebola, it can be transmitted from person
> to person, typically through close contact with people who are very sick. [Source](https://www.nebraskamed.com/biocontainment/health/conditions-and-services/what-is-marburg-virus-5-things-to-know-about-the-ebola-like-virus)
In mid July, there were preliminary reports of Marburg in Algeria, which the government has [since denied](https://www.newarab.com/news/algeria-denies-any-ebola-marburg-virus-cases).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if there are credible reports by July 28th confirming a case of Marburg virus. Examples of credible reporting include (but are not limited to) the CDC, WHO, or the Algerian government.
|
2023-07-21T19:32:00Z
|
2023-07-28T22:00:00Z
|
2023-07-29T14:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17955
|
Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?
|
[The Chandrayaan Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan_programme) (Translation: Lunar Vehicle Programme), also known as the Indian Lunar Exploration Programme, is an ongoing series of outer space missions by the [Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISRO). Its four main parts are:
* Orbiter, which orbits the moon and sends data.
* Impactor, which crashes onto the moon’s surface. It sends data before crashing. After the crash, Orbiter analyzes the debris and collects the data.
* Lander - a vehicle that lands on the moon's surface such that the instruments inside it are safe.
* Rover - a vehicle that moves around the surface of the moon and sends data back.
[Chandrayaan-1]() was launched on October 22, 2008. It had an orbiter and an impactor. The mission fulfilled all its objectives and even found water. [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-1) was initially meant to be launched in 2013. It was planned as an Indian-made orbiter and a Russian-made lander. As [the Indian Express explains](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-chandrayaan-2-was-to-be-launched-by-india-and-russia-in-2011-its-delayed-but-better-5972440/):
>The kind of lander and rover that Russia was preparing to send on Chandrayaan-2, however, developed problem on a different mission, forcing Roscosmos to make design corrections. But the new proposed design was found to be incompatible to Chandrayaan-2. Russia had to eventually pull itself out from the collaboration, which left ISRO to make efforts to develop its own lander and rover through research and development. This task took a few years to accomplish.
The launch finally happened six years later, on 22nd July, 2019. While Chandrayaan-2 successfully managed to orbit the moon, [the lander lost contact just before touchdown](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/india-chandrayaan-2-landing-attempt-moon-lunar-south-pole) [and crashed on its surface](https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2019/vikram-lander-found/). [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) picks up where Chandrayaan-2 left off. It only has a lander and a rover.
On Friday, July 14 Chandrayaan-3 began with a [successful launch](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/14/india-moon-launch-space-chandrayaan/).
>The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) said Friday afternoon that the Chandrayaan-3 mission had launched successfully and the rocket had entered “precise orbit.” The vessel is now scheduled to travel for more than a month in orbit and then land at the moon’s south pole on Aug. 23.
>If the Chandrayaan’s four-legged craft sticks its landing, it will deploy a 60-pound, solar-powered rover to scour the lunar surface for two weeks. It would also catapult India into a small group of countries, consisting of the United States, Russia and China, that have managed the feat.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if:
- India's Chandrayaan-3 mission's lander lands on the moon, and;
- The [Pragyan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pragyan_(rover)) rover is able to exit the lander and establish communication with ISRO from the lunar surface.
The landing and rover exiting the lander must be confirmed by credible media sources.
Fine Print: In the unlikely case that ISRO claims the landing was successful but this claim is challenged by other countries' space agencies or by credible media sources, then the question will resolve ambiguously unless Metaculus Admins decide that the evidence provided by one side is proof which removes any reasonable doubt (something like NASA images of the crashed lander or images of the intact lander if their authenticity is independently confirmed).
|
2023-07-20T21:24:00Z
|
2023-08-22T10:00:00Z
|
2023-08-24T13:14:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17916
|
Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?
|
[UPS](https://www.ups.com/kz/en/Home.page) and UPS union employees are in the midst of [negotiations](https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/ups-will-train-non-union-employees-ahead-of-looming-strike/) over a new contract. The current employee contract is set to expire on July 31, 2023. Negotiations [deadlocked](https://www.reuters.com/business/teamsters-says-ups-has-walked-away-negotiations-2023-07-05/) in early July.
> The Teamsters Union said on Wednesday United Parcel Service "walked away" from negotiations over a new contract, a claim the shipping giant denied, lobbing its own accusation that the union had stopped negotiating.
> The two sides traded salvos in early morning statements as they attempt an agreement to prevent a strike when the current contract, which covers some 340,000 workers, expires at the end of the month.
> Workers of UPS have already authorized a strike should the talks break down. Such a labor action would be the first since 1997 for UPS workers, in a strike that lasted 15 days, cost the company $850 million and sent some customers to rivals
Both the union and company officials have said before that they wanted a deal finalized to prevent a strike, which could put millions of daily deliveries at risk.
Teamsters leaders have [asked the White House](https://thehill.com/business/4101107-teamsters-chief-asks-white-house-not-to-intervene-if-ups-workers-strike/) not to intervene in the event of a strike.
A UPS Teamsters strike would be the largest U.S. Labor strike in more than 60 years and could have broad reverberations in the economy.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if credible reports indicate the [UPS Teamsters](https://teamster.org/divisions/package-division/) are [on strike](https://www.upsteamstersunited.org) as of 12pm ET on August 4, 2023. Please note that this question resolves solely on the status of the strike on August 4. If a strike is declared prior to August 4, this question will not resolve based on that announcement.
|
2023-07-19T15:15:00Z
|
2023-08-03T15:00:00Z
|
2023-08-04T16:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17914
|
Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?
|
The Chandrayaan-3 lander [Vikram](https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/indias-chandrayaan-3-mission-launches-for-the-moon/#:~:text=The%20Vikram%20rover%20undergoing%20acoustic,be%20seen%20in%20the%20foreground.&text=The%20mission%20is%20targeting%20a,set%20for%20August%2023%2C%202023.) is a lunar lander designed by India's space program (ISRO).
The Chandrayaan-2 mission was launched in July 2019 and it resulted in a lander that [crashed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/20/science/chandrayaan-2-moon-india.html) on the lunar surface in September of that year. The cause was attributed to a [software](https://spacenews.com/software-problem-blamed-for-ispace-lunar-lander-crash/) glitch.
If the Chandrayaan-3 mission is successful India would only be the fourth country to soft land a lander on the moon after the Soviet Union, the US, and China.
The Chandrayaan-3 lander Vikram was launched on a GSLV Mark 3 rocket on July 14, 2023 and is expected to land on the moon on August 23 or 24 near [Mutus crater](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutus_(crater)).
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if the Vikram lander soft-lands on the surface of the moon.
To qualify as a soft-landing, the lander must touch the lunar surface in a controlled and gradual way that does not damage all of its systems to the point of being inoperable. If some but not all systems are damaged during the landing, but the lander can still perform some of its tasks with its onboard equipment and the Indian Space Research Organization is able to communicate with the lander after the landing, then it will qualify as a successful landing and the question will resolve **Yes.**
|
2023-07-20T16:45:00Z
|
2023-08-23T16:00:00Z
|
2023-08-23T12:40:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17907
|
Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?
|
Over the last few years, Sweden has had hotter and sunnier summers than usual, an experience shared with other places around the world. The hot and dry summers are bad for crop yields, but occasionally celebrated by people looking to enjoy their vacation and recharge on daylight after a long, dark winter.
So far, this summer has also been hot and dry and there's no real reason to think it would not continue to be. That said, exceeding 500 hours of sun in Stockholm has happened only four times in the past 20 years, with the normal amount of sun in recent history hovering in the 350-450 hour range.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if the total number of hours of sun (summation over the weeks 26-32 inclusive) listed for Stockholm by [SVT Data Journalism Sun League](https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/solligan-2023/) exceeds 500.
The number of hours used to resolve this question will be the ones listed the first time the page is accessed after August 13th.
Fine Print: If the page is not available between August 14th and 17th, but SVT maintains an equivalent successor to that page, the successor will be used instead. If SVT does not publish any data on sun hours between the 14th and 17th, the question resolves ambiguously.
|
2023-07-18T19:11:00Z
|
2023-07-30T10:00:00Z
|
2023-08-11T19:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17906
|
Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?
|
[CNEOS 2014-01-08](https://www.space.com/2014-meteor-first-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua), also known as [Interstellar Meteor 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08) (IM1), crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014.
Harvard astrophysicist [Avi Loeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avi_Loeb) and a student, [Amir Siraj](https://scholar.harvard.edu/siraj/home), published a [preprint](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.07224) which argued—citing a US Department of Defense [memo](https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/DoD.pdf)—that the object originated outside the solar system.
> we identify the ∼0.45m meteor detected at 2014-01-08 17:05:34 UTC as originating from an unbound hyperbolic orbit with 99.999\% confidence. The U.S. Department of Defense has since verified that "the velocity estimate reported to NASA is sufficiently accurate to indicate an interstellar trajectory."
If Loeb and Siraj are correct, then IM1 is the first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) scientifically known to impact the earth. Other scientists have [disputed](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/acm2023/pdf/2226.pdf) their conclusions.
Loeb had previously suggested in his book [*Extraterrestrial*](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/astronomer-avi-loeb-says-aliens-have-visited-and-hes-not-kidding1/) that a 2017 interstellar object known ‘Oumuamua’ as was ["interstellar technology built by aliens"](https://www.independent.co.uk/space/avi-loeb-harvard-university-ufos-b2039269.html), though other scientists have proposed [alternative explanations](https://www.science.org/content/article/mystery-our-first-interstellar-visitor-may-be-solved#:~:text=Astronomers%20named%20the%20object%201I,it%20left%20the%20Solar%20System.) for Omuamua's "strange behavior."
In 2023, Loeb launched an [expedition](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/summary-of-the-successful-interstellar-expedition-61ff4467070d) to recover portions of IM1, stating his belief that not only may the object be interstellar, but that it could be [alien technology](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230626-the-underwater-search-for-an-alien-object). Using a [massive magnetic sled](https://www.livescience.com/interstellar-asteroid-fishing-expedition) to scrape the seabed, Loeb's expedition found [50 spherules](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/avi-loeb-interstellar-object-aliens-b2369534.html) which Loeb believes are portions of IM1. Loeb says these spherules are now being [analyzed](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce) by "three laboratories in UC Berkeley, Harvard and the Bruker Corporation in Germany."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if at least three independent labs publish peer-reviewed studies on the question of the origin of material gathered from the IM1 crash site off the coast of Papua New Guinea, concluding the material is likelier than not (e.g. 51% or higher) from outside our solar system.
Further details:
- The studies must be published before January 1, 2025
- To qualify as "independent", each lab's conclusions must be stated independently of the expedition team. This condition is satisfied if:
- the conclusions are published in papers without Avi Loeb as coauthor, or;
- Avi Loeb is a coauthor, and the papers clearly outline the results obtained by the independent labs and the process for fully independent verification.
- A single study (or two studies) incorporating analyses from three independent labs may be considered, if three independent studies are not available. In this case:
- at least three independent labs must be cited in the studies;
- The criteria for independence, above, must be satisfied.
- Each lab must independently support the conclusion that the material is likelier than not (51% or higher) from outside the solar system.
The question resolves **No** in all other cases.
|
2023-07-21T18:22:00Z
|
2024-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17826
|
Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025?
|
Instagram recently announced Threads, a text based social media application integrated with Instagram. Instagram [announced](https://help.instagram.com/169559812696339) they are planning on supporting [ActivityPub](https://www.w3.org/TR/activitypub/) a protocol for social networking.
Resolution Criteria: Instagram, Threads, Meta, or Credible Sources will announce that Threads now supports ActivityPub.
|
2023-07-26T00:22:00Z
|
2025-01-01T09:59:00Z
|
2024-03-21T04:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17796
|
Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?
|
[The Sphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_at_The_Venetian_Resort), an impressive $2 billion venue at the Venetian Resort in Las Vegas, was [fully illuminated for the first time on July 4, 2023](https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/5/23784790/sphere-las-vegas-led-screen-lit). Covered in 580,000 square feet of programmable LED panels, The Sphere has become a striking addition to the Las Vegas skyline. With an 18,000-seat capacity, it is set to host its [first concert on September 29, 2023](https://www.thespherevegas.com/shows/u2), featuring the band U2.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if the U2 concert at The Sphere in Las Vegas occurs as planned on September 29, 2023.
Fine Print: If the concert *starts* (but does not finish or is rescheduled mid-concert) this question will still resolve **Yes**.
|
2023-07-13T16:02:00Z
|
2023-09-28T18:00:00Z
|
2023-09-30T16:06:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17793
|
Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?
|
[Colson Whitehead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colson_Whitehead), is a Pulitzer and National Book Award-winning author who has penned various acclaimed works, such as "The Underground Railroad," "The Nickel Boys," and "Harlem Shuffle," and received numerous accolades like the MacArthur Fellowship. His latest book *Crook Manifesto*, will be published on [July 18th, 2023](https://www.colsonwhitehead.com/) and is considered one of the most anticipated books of the summer.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if *Crook Manifesto* is listed in the top 15 books on the New York Times Best Sellers list for [Hardcover Fiction](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/2023/07/16/hardcover-fiction/) for the list dated August 13th.
Fine Print: Dated lists generally include sales data ending about 2 weeks prior and are available online about 1 week prior.
|
2023-07-14T20:41:00Z
|
2023-07-28T18:00:00Z
|
2023-08-02T13:06:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17792
|
Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?
|
[Ohio Issue 1](https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_Issue_1,_60%25_Vote_Requirement_to_Approve_Constitutional_Amendments_Measure_(2023)) (2023), also called "the 60% Vote Requirement to Approve Constitutional Amendments Measure", is on the ballot in Ohio for an election on August 8, 2023.
A "yes" vote would amend the Ohio Constitution and increase the voter approval threshold for future constitutional amendments considered via ballot initiative to 60% (whereas currently the threshold is a simple majority of 50%+1). Issue 1 passing would also require citizen-initiated amendment campaigns to collect signatures from each of the state's 88 counties (whereas previously the threshold was only half of the counties) and eliminate a currently authorized 10 day "cure"/grace period for addressing invalid signatures. Generally this would make future ballot initiatives much harder to pass.
A "no" vote would maintain the status quo.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves YES if, per credible media reporting, Ohio Issue 1 is passed following the August 2023 election.
|
2023-07-12T18:52:00Z
|
2023-08-08T03:59:00Z
|
2023-08-09T01:57:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17771
|
Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?
|
Google DeepMind is an AI lab and subsidiary of Alphabet - best known for creating AlphaGo, the first AI system to defeat a professional Go player. DeepMind is currently developing a new AI system called Gemini which CEO Demis Hassabis [claims](https://www.wired.com/story/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis-chatgpt/) will be even more capable than OpenAI’s latest state-of-the-art model, GPT-4. Gemini is still training, and is currently months away from completion according to Hassabis.
Recently, OpenAI delayed releasing their new model for 6 months in order to conduct safety evaluations and risk assessments using third party auditors. They [cited](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4-system-card.pdf) “acceleration risk” - the possibility of a decline in safety standards and accelerated timelines leading to increased societal risks from AI - as a key reason for the delay and testing. They strongly encouraged other labs like DeepMind to follow their lead.
Independent groups like the Alignment Research Center (ARC) specialize in auditing and evaluating advanced AI systems to assess potentially dangerous capabilities, focusing specifically on the ability to autonomously gain resources and evade human oversight. They believe rigorous testing is necessary before models become too capable, and hope more AI labs will adopt their “red team” evaluation approach. While today’s models are not very capable on their own, ARC warns this could change quickly.
Given OpenAI’s warning about acceleration risk, their call for AI labs to delay model releases to conduct safety evaluations, and the work of groups like ARC specifically focused on auditing advanced AI for dangerous capabilities, it’s possible that DeepMind would follow their advice and conduct similar third party safety evaluations before Gemini is deployed. If DeepMind mentions giving external groups access to evaluate Gemini for safety before deployment, it would suggest they are taking OpenAI and ARC’s recommendations seriously in order to ensure their system is not able to become destructively autonomous.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively Google DeepMind issues a statement on their blog, in an official paper, or in a media statement, on or before the release of their Gemini model, mentioning that they have given one or more third parties access to Gemini for the purpose of conducting safety evaluations and risk assessments for at least 3 months.
The statement should specifically refer to evaluating Gemini's capabilities to ensure it cannot act in dangerous or destructive ways. A vague or passing mention of safety practices or ethics research in progress will not be sufficient.
The 3rd party evaluation does not need to be published in order for this question to resolve **Yes**. If no such statement is made by Google or DeepMind within 30 days of Gemini’s release, this question resolves **No.**
If Google DeepMind does not release a model called or previously referred to as “Gemini” before August 1, 2024, this question will resolve **Ambiguous**.
|
2023-07-19T23:45:00Z
|
2024-07-29T16:00:00Z
|
2024-01-06T23:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17767
|
Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?
|
[Luna-25](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25) is a planned lunar lander mission by the Russian space agency Roscosmos. If it succeeds, it will land in the lunar South Pole region near the Boguslavsky crater.
As [the Russian-language Wikipedia article about Luna-25](https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BD%D0%B0-25) says (translation by Google Translate):
>The purpose of this project is to launch an automatic probe, the orbital part of which should carry out remote research and select suitable sites for subsequent descent vehicles, and the lander will explore the surface in the South Pole region , including cryogenic drilling to a depth of two meters (the main task is to search for water ).
Luna-25 is the first lunar mission by Russia after the Soviet times. The last in the series of pioneering Soviet robotic lunar missions was Luna-24, which sent about 170 grams of moon material back to Earth in 1976.
Luna-25 will launch atop a [Soyuz-2.1b rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz-2), which in recent years has been very reliable.
The mission is currently set to launch from [Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostochny_Cosmodrome) on [August 11, 2023](https://tass.com/science/1627981), which is 47 years after Luna-24.
__The mission launch was delayed multiple times in the past__ (see the table below which is translated by Google Translate from the Wikipedia article about Luna-25 in Russian). [Last time this happened at the end of May when the launch was moved from July to August](https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/91003/#:~:text=2023%2021%3A11-,Luna%2025%20spacecraft%20launch%20postponed%20till%20August%20due%20to%20additional,infrastructure%2C%20Roscosmos%20said%20on%20Tuesday.).
[](Translation by Google Translate from the Wikipedia article about Luna-25 in Russian)
Source: [Wikipedia](https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BD%D0%B0-25), translation from Russian by Google Translate
__Because of the delays in the past this question asks if they will launch the mission in the current launch window, which is July to August__, however, the launch on September 1st local time for Vostochny Cosmodrome will still resolve the question as "Yes", if Luna-25 will reach Earth's orbit.
From the [recent video interview with Yuri Borisov, General Director of Roscosmos from 16th of June]( https://smotrim.ru/video/2633940) (automated translation based on automated transcription):
>Well, to begin with, the interest in the Moon arose after the possibility of water extraction was identified. If there is water, it means there is life and we can organize, including on the planets, a new station and think about industrial use of lunar resources. This is why interest in the Moon has been aroused recently, not only in our country, but in a number of other countries as well. We are actually, after a long break, 46 years to be exact, going back to the Lunar Program, Luna 25, which is our project to put a landing on the Moon. An automatic station at the South Pole. Taking soil and conducting a number of scientific experiments. Preparations for the launch are proceeding as planned. We actually had to postpone the launch from July 11 and move it to August. __We cannot postpone it any further, unfortunately. The launch windows are the way the ballistics of reaching the Moon is set up.__ You know, this is a very responsible procedure, a soft landing. And so, of course, the experiment is quite expensive, you had to verify everything. You have probably heard that last year we refused because the personal characteristics of the laser number did not suit us and could lead to negative consequences. This experiment we postponed it. __Now all the major technical difficulties have been overcome. According to the latest information, all the mathematical modelling, and we are doing almost a simulation, all the landings are going according to plan, preparations are underway to deliver the satellite to the launch site. And we hope that the launch will take place in August.__
More recently, on June 30th, [Russian media](https://tass.ru/kosmos/18164233) quoted Borisov reporting the mission's chances of success to Putin (automatic translation from Russian with Google Translate):
>Borisov said that the success of missions similar to Luna-25 is 70%
>According to the head of Roscosmos, landing simulations are being intensively carried out at the moment in order to eliminate all the nuances
>MOSCOW, 30 June. /TASS/. The success of missions similar to the launch of the Luna-25 automatic apparatus in the world is 70%. This was reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin by the head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov on Friday.
>“We are especially looking forward to the launch of a scientific satellite. We are returning to the Moon <…>. This mission involves landing in the South Pole region, no one in the world has ever done such things <…>. missions are estimated at about 70%," Borisov said.
>According to the head of Roscosmos, landing simulations are being intensively carried out at the moment in order to eliminate all the nuances. "I would like it (the mission - TASS note) to be successful," the general director of the state corporation stressed.
>The first domestic device in modern Russia, which will go to the natural satellite of the Earth, should be the automatic station "Luna-25". The purpose of the project is to send an automatic probe for research in the region of the south pole of the moon. It is planned that the module will be landed near the Boguslavsky crater. Earlier, the press service of Roscosmos told journalists that the launch of the mission was postponed from July to August in order to achieve the required reliability of its implementation."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as "Yes", if credible media report that Luna-25 has successfully reached Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023. Further success or failure of the mission (like reaching the Moon's orbit or succeeding with a soft landing) is irrelevant to this question's resolution.
If the launch is delayed again beyond this question resolution deadline or cancelled, the question resolves as "No".
If any failure during the launch prevents Luna-25 from reaching Earth's orbit, this question resolves as "No".
|
2023-07-10T12:47:00Z
|
2023-08-31T21:59:00Z
|
2023-08-10T23:10:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17742
|
Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?
|
**Previous Questions on Metaculus**
- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/)
- [Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14607/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-27-23/)
On February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's initial plan seemed to involve [rapidly taking the capital](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)), deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after this plan was unsuccessful, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the "[Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group)," a Russian paramilitary force.
By fall, Bakhmut was a central focus of the war, with fighting in [trench warfare conditions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-warns-of-new-missile-attacks-russia-may-be-preparing-to-leave-zaporizhzhia-plant-nuclear-chief-says?page=with:block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6#block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6) and [heavy casualties](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-estimates-50-100-russian-troops-are-killed-in-bakhmut-sector-daily/).
On December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news). On January 16, Russian forces [secured control of Soledar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Soledar) and began encircling Bakhmut.
After [months of fighting](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/3/9/23631178/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-war-wagner) Russia made [gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut) in Bakhmut, with the city administrative building [falling](https://kyivindependent.com/presidents-office-head-urges-calmly-react-to-fakes-after-wagner-boss-claims-seizure-of-bakhmut-administration-building/) to Russian troops in April.
On May 5, the head of the Wagner Group [said that Wagner would withdraw from the battle](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/prigozhin-wagner-troops-withdraw-bakhmut-russia-military-ammo-video-rcna83015) because of lack of Russian support. Wagner then reversed course, before [transferring the city](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65705733) to the Russian army.
Ukraine launched a [counter-offensive](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66075786) in June 2023, and fierce fighting [resumed near Bakhmut](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-struck-ukrainian-forces-near-bakhmut-2023-07-05/).
Resolution Criteria: The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).
The question will resolve **Yes** if, when checked by Metaculus admins at 5pm ET on September 30, 2023, the map shows the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building—located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500—is under any of the following categories:
- Ukranian Control
- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives
- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukranian control of the location
The question will resolve **No** if the administrative building is assessed to be within any of the following categories:
- Assessed Russian Control
- Assessed Russian Advance
- Claimed Russian Control
- Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare
- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building
Forecasters can see the exact location of the administrative building by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for "Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500".
Fine Print: If the building itself no longer exists, resolution will be based on the location of the building.
Credit to [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2621-will-the-location-of-the-administrative-services-building-in-bakhmut-ukraine-cease-to-be-under-ukrainian-control-before-26-january-2023-according-to-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war) for inspiring the resolution criteria.
|
2023-07-07T19:34:00Z
|
2023-09-30T21:00:44.003000Z
|
2023-09-30T21:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17725
|
Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?
|
The [Tour de France](https://www.letour.fr/en/) is one of the most prestigious and iconic cycling races in the world, attracting top cyclists from around the globe.
The yellow jersey, or maillot jaune, is worn by the leader of the [general classification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_classification_in_the_Tour_de_France), representing the cyclist with the lowest cumulative time. It is a coveted symbol of excellence and serves as a significant milestone in the race.
[Stage 9](https://www.cyclingstage.com/tour-de-france-2023-route/stage-9-tdf-2023/) will be ridden on Sunday, July 9th and is a mountain climbing stage ([on a volcano](https://www.letour.fr/en/heritage/stage-9/town/puy-de-dome)!) that hasn't been part of the Tour since 1988. The following day will be the first rest day of the Tour.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if the cyclist who wins [stage 9](https://www.letour.fr/en/stage-9) of the 2023 Tour de France is also ranked first in the [General Individual Rankings](https://www.letour.fr/en/rankings) after stage 9.
|
2023-07-07T20:01:00Z
|
2023-07-09T05:00:00Z
|
2023-07-09T18:39:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17716
|
Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?
|
[Cris Ericson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cris_Ericson) has been a candidate every two years in Vermont from 2002 to 2020 and has lost every election. She is known as the cannabis legalization [candidate](http://crisericson.com) in Vermont. Cannabis is now [legal](https://www.mpp.org/states/vermont/) under VT state law, but not under federal laws.
Cris Ericson has been excluded from the majority of debates and forums from 2002 through 2022. She has [announced her candidacy](https://www.diamondeyecandidatereport.com/home/first-challenger-to-senator-bernie-sanders-is-a-familiar-face-in-vermont-politics) for Senate in Vermont, challenging incumbent Senator Bernie Sanders.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if Cris Ericson is declared the winner of the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont by the [Vermont Secretary of State](https://sos.vermont.gov/elections/election-info-resources/elections-results-data/).
|
2023-07-07T00:23:00Z
|
2024-11-08T17:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T17:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17701
|
Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?
|
General [Sergei Surovikin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Surovikin), head of the Russian aerospace forces and former commander of Russia's military operation in Ukraine, has recently been detained amid speculation about loyalty and divisions within the country's leadership. Surovikin was [reportedly aware in advance](https://www.npr.org/2023/06/29/1185088717/russia-general-detained-ukraine-commander) of the uprising led by mercenary leader [Yevgeny Prigozhin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin) against top defense leaders. Following the uprising, Surovikin's name emerged in connection with the Wagner Group forces' seizure of Russia's southern regional military headquarters and their movement towards Moscow.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if there are official announcements, credible reports, or statements from authoritative sources—before July 12, 2023—confirming that General Sergei Surovikin is no longer the Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces. It will also resolve **Yes** if a new Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces is appointed.
|
2023-07-04T18:00:00Z
|
2023-07-11T18:00:00Z
|
2023-07-13T11:19:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17682
|
Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?
|
On 24 February 2022, [Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), escalating the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) that began in 2014. Subsequently, on 30 September 2022, Russia unilaterally [declared the annexation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_annexation_of_Donetsk,_Kherson,_Luhansk_and_Zaporizhzhia_oblasts) of areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts. [Martial law was introduced in Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_martial_law) on 20 October 2022 but was implemented only in the annexed territories of Ukraine. Different levels of readiness or response were established in various regions, including those bordering Ukraine and annexed Crimea. On 23 June 2023, a [rebellion by the Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion), a private military company linked to the Russian government, occurred. The rebellion reportedly led to a decline of 9-14% in public trust towards Vladimir Putin, as reported by [Meduza](https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/29/sotsiologi-govoryat-chto-myatezh-ne-obrushil-reytingi-prezidenta-rossii-odnako-regionalnye-politiki-rasskazali-meduze-chto-v-kremle-im-soobschayut-o-padenii-urovnya-doveriya-putinu-na-9-14) on 29 June. Notably, [presidential elections are scheduled for March 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election), and under electoral law, they [cannot be held during a period of martial law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Russia#Permitted_limitations). This question aims to assess the likelihood of Putin declaring martial law within a specific timeframe.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Vladimir Putin officially declares a state of martial law covering 3/4 of all [federal subjects of Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) before January 1, 2025. The declaration should be recognized and implemented by the Russian government through official channels and public announcements.
Fine Print: For the purposes of resolution, federal subjects whose territories are internationally recognized as part of Ukraine will not be considered in the 3/4 calculation.
|
2023-07-07T00:47:00Z
|
2024-12-31T21:00:00Z
|
2025-01-06T19:28:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17660
|
Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?
|
Hurricane season in Virginia runs from [June 1 to November 30](https://www.vaemergency.gov/threats/hurricanes/). Virginia uses a system known as ["Know Your Zone"](https://va-know-your-zone-vdemgis.hub.arcgis.com/) featuring four zones for at-risk areas which can be used for evacuation orders:
>“Know Your Zone” serves roughly 1.25 million residents who live in Coastal Virginia, the region of the state most vulnerable to hurricanes and other tropical storms. Twenty-three localities participate in the tiered evacuation zones. Zones were developed in close coordination with local emergency managers throughout Hampton Roads, the Northern Neck, the Middle Peninsula and the Eastern Shore based on the most up-to-date engineering data for the region.
>
>Zones are designated A through D. Zones provide residents with clarity on whether they should evacuate in an emergency or shelter at home, based on their physical street address and the nature of the emergency event. When a serious storm is expected to threaten or impact Virginia’s coastal regions, state and local emergency agencies will work with local news media outlets, as well as social media channels, that will then broadcast and publish evacuation directives to the public.
>
>. . .
>
>When a storm is approaching, emergency managers will determine which zones are most at risk considering the intensity, path, speed, tides and other meteorological factors. Emergency managers at the state and local level will work with local media and use social media and other tools to notify residents of impacted zones what they should do to stay safe.
>
>Depending on the emergency, being safe might mean staying at home, a short trip to higher ground, or traveling to a different region of the state.
The Governor, Virginia Emergency Management Officials, and Local Governments may order a mandatory evacuation.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the government of Virginia (either state or local) orders a mandatory evacuation related to any tropical cyclone.
Fine Print: A mandatory evacuation need not be for an entire zone, a mandatory evacuation related to any tropical cyclone for a city or other region would also be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.
|
2023-06-30T19:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-04T17:23:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17655
|
Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?
|
In late June 2023, Israel's public broadcasting network [reported](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/palestinian-territories/1687947488-palestinian-authority-discusses-possible-bankruptcy-amidst-financial-troubles) that the Palestinian Authority may need to declare bankruptcy. Representatives of the Palestinian Authority [disputed this claim](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230703-pa-minister-dismisses-possibility-of-bankruptcy/).
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, reputable sources report the Palestinian Authority is bankrupt.
|
2023-07-07T01:22:00Z
|
2023-12-31T10:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17598
|
Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?
|
To date, no sitting Attorney General of the United States of America has ever been impeached. The closest case was in 1922, when [Attorney General Harry M. Daugherty faced an impeachment investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_officials#Attorney_General_Harry_M._Daugherty_(Republican)). Now, in response to potential mishandling of criminal cases related to sitting President Joseph Biden's son Hunter Biden, the Speaker of the House of Representatives has said that [Attorney General Merrick Garland's impeachment is being considered](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mccarthy-considers-impeachment-inquiry-ag-merrick-garland-hunter/story?id=100393665).
>House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is considering launching an impeachment inquiry over Attorney General Merrick Garland's handling of the investigation into President Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden.
>McCarthy tweeted on Sunday that he wants Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney David Weiss to provide answers to the House Judiciary Committee regarding accusations made by two former IRS agents about Weiss' probe of the younger Biden, on which they worked.
>"If the whistleblowers' allegations are true, this will be a significant part of a larger impeachment inquiry into Merrick Garland's weaponization of DOJ," McCarthy wrote. (An inquiry would be a precursor to the House potentially voting on specific articles of impeachment on Garland.)
>On Monday, McCarthy said on Fox News: "If it comes true what the IRS whistleblower is saying, we're going to start impeachment inquiries on the attorney general."
The impeachment of Merrick Garland would be notable not only for having been the first impeachment of an Attorney General in United States history, but also for its potential political impact on the 2024 Presidential election.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Attorney General Merrick Garland is impeached by the United States House of Representatives before November 5th, 2024.
Fine Print: * This question resolves purely and only on the basis of impeachment by the House of Representatives. Conviction in the Senate is neither required nor relevant.
* This question will resolve as **No** if Garland is not impeached before November 5th, 2024, even if Attorney General Garland resigns or dies before the resolution date. Note that even in such case, an early resolution of **No** will not be possible, as the second impeachment of Donald Trump has demonstrated that impeachments can occur even after the individual no longer holds office.
|
2023-06-28T21:40:00Z
|
2024-11-04T03:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T05:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17593
|
Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024?
|
The Sacremento Kings were one of the [surprises](https://www.skysports.com/nba/news/12028/12904737/2022-23-nba-season-review-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly) of the 2022-23 NBA season, reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Their head coach, Mike Brown, was the first coach in NBA history to [unanimously be named](https://www.sacbee.com/sports/nba/sacramento-kings/article274474515.html) Coach of the Year.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if the Sacramento Kings reach the Conference Semifinals of the NBA playoffs for the 2023-2024 NBA season.
|
2023-07-07T00:54:00Z
|
2024-04-15T16:00:00Z
|
2024-04-20T04:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17592
|
Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?
|
[Investopedia describes the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/djia.asp) as follows:
>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a stock market index that tracks 30 large, publicly-owned blue-chip companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones is named after Charles Dow, who created the index in 1896 along with his business partner, Edward Jones. Also referred to as the Dow 30, the index is considered to be a gauge of the broader U.S. economy.
>. . .
>The DJIA launched in 1896 with just 12 companies, primarily in the industrial sector. They included railroads, cotton, gas, sugar, tobacco, and oil. The index grew to 30 components by 1928. Since then, it's changed many times—the very first came three months after the 30-component index launched. The first large-scale change was in 1932 when eight stocks in the Dow were replaced.
>
>The Dow is reevaluated on a regular basis. Companies are replaced when they no longer meet the index's listing criteria with those that do. Over time, the index became a bellwether of the U.S. economy, reflecting economic changes. For example, U.S. Steel was removed from the index in 1991 and replaced by building material company Martin Marietta.
DJIA milestones are a popular subject of reports, particularly in increments of $5,000. The DJIA [first hit $35,000 in July of 2021](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dow-jones-today-35000-first-time/) but declined in early 2022 as [markets fell](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/) amid [high inflation](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=16FjE) and [rising federal funds rates](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=16iWr). The DJIA has not reached $35,000 since early 2022.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 3, 2023 and before August 1, 2023, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closes at or above $35,000 according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history?p=%5EDJI).
|
2023-07-04T18:00:00Z
|
2023-07-31T13:00:00Z
|
2023-07-19T20:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17584
|
Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?
|
A political rally on 14 October 2023 organised by [Chain of Freedom Scotland](https://chainoffreedom.scot/) aims to form a human chain spanning the width of Scotland, following the route of the Forth and Clyde Canal. Will this aim be achieved?
The rally is inspired by [Baltic Way](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Way), a similar event that took place in 1989 and saw approximately 2 million people join hands in a continuous human chain running 430 miles across the Baltic States, which at the time were occupied by the Soviet Union.
The chain aims to be continuous with the [exception that roads will not be blocked](https://chainoffreedom.scot/the-plan-info-details/):
>The Chain of Freedom will NOT close down any roads, nor cross any roads, which will disrupt the public. Should there be a road in your section. The Chain will stop at one side and then restart at the other.
The event organizers estimate that one person per meter is needed, and the Forth and Clyde canal is roughly [56 kilometers in length](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forth_and_Clyde_Canal), meaning that roughly 56,000 people would to attend to complete the chain. A map of the planned route is [here](https://chainoffreedom.scot/#livemap).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 16, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a "continuous" or "nearly continuous" human chain stretched across the length of the Forth and Clyde canal on October 14, 2023, with sufficient attendance for the chain to be unbroken for the full length or nearly the full length, with the exception of openings for roads.
Fine Print: * If reports are unclear or sources conflict on whether the chain is at least "nearly continuous", the question will resolve as **Yes** if attendance is estimated to be 50,000 people or more. Where a range of attendance estimates is provided the median will be used.
* In the event of conflicting reports or attendance estimates, Metaculus will make a determination of whether descriptions from credible sources meet these criteria, or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.
* This question will primarily rely on characterizations from credible sources, but the frequent use of flags, ropes, chains, or other objects to stretch between large gaps in humans will generally be considered to not count. For example, language like "made nearly continuous through the use of numerous long flags" will not qualify.
|
2023-10-05T15:00:00Z
|
2023-10-13T22:59:00Z
|
2023-10-16T15:09:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17581
|
Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?
|
Twitter & Facebook have been abuzz regarding the interaction that occurred between the two high-profile tech billionaires - Elon Musk & Mark Zuckerberg.
It seems that both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have [agreed to fight each other](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/22/elon-musk-vs-mark-zuckerberg-cage-fight/) in a cage match, in not so many words at least, by the following exchange:
Musk posted a message on his social media platform Twitter that he was "up for a cage fight" with Zuckerberg.
Zuckerberg, owner of Facebook and Instagram parent company Meta, then posted a screenshot of Musk's tweet, saying "send me location"."
Many news outlets have been discussing the [two billionaires' competitive history](https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-mark-zuckerberg-cage-fight-b71fa4ff) with one another, their fighting abilities and strengths, and who has a better chance of winning. Social media is also in a frenzy of speculation regarding when (and if) the cage match will occur, and which of the two will win.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if a publicly-evident cage match occurs directly between Elon Musk & Mark Zuckerberg, before January 1, 2024.
|
2023-07-07T00:08:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17580
|
Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?
|
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142) on Saturday, June 24th, that his mercenaries will suspend their advance towards Moscow and return to Ukraine.
Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus and a firm supporter of President Vladimir Putin, [asserted his role](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-wagner-prigozhin-putin) in brokering this ceasefire.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **No** if Yevgeny Prigozhin publicly states any of the following:
- That Wagner forces will again mobilize within Russia with the goal of enacting change within Russian government.
- Anything equivalent to "the deal is off"
The question also resolves **No** based on credible reports of Wagner Group mobilizations within Russia with a goal of enacting change within a Russian governmental entity.
If none of the above happen before 8pm ET on June 30, 2023, the question resolves **Yes**.
|
2023-06-24T20:30:00Z
|
2023-06-30T20:30:00Z
|
2023-07-01T00:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17571
|
Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?
|
> On 23 June 2023, the Russian private military company known as the Wagner Group initiated an armed conflict with the Russian Armed Forces, following increasing tensions between the organization's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD). Wagner personnel have said that corruption and incompetency in the MoD has squandered progress after initial successes in the invasion of Ukraine, while Russian president Vladimir Putin and other officials have denounced the groups' attacks as treasonous acts of opportunism and seizure of power.
> Prigozhin described the rebellion as revenge for what he said was an attack on his forces by the ministry. He dismissed the Russian government's justification for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, blamed the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu for Russian military failures, and accused him of conducting the war for the benefit of Russian elites. Prigozhin's forces took Rostov-on-Don with its key military headquarters, and reportedly advanced towards Voronezh, and then Lipetsk, in the direction of Moscow.
> In response, the Federal Security Service (FSB) opened a criminal case against Prigozhin for "inciting an armed revolt". In a televised address, President Putin called Wagner's actions 'treason' and vowed to suppress the mutiny
> Putin vowed to retain control yet additionally lamented a "mortal blow". ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion))
From [Jennifer Caferella](https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella) with The Institute for the Study of War on Twitter:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Early SITREP as of approx 1000 EDT on June 24<br /><br />-Wagner controls <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rostov?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Rostov</a><br /><br />-<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Wagner?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Wagner</a> advancing north past Voronezh which they seem to have bypassed at least partially. En route to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Moscow?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Moscow</a><br /><br />-No major confirmed ground clashes yet. Some unconfirmed reports of airstrikes & at least one…</p>— Jennifer Cafarella (@JennyCafarella) <a href="https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella/status/1672605342155284480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 24, 2023</a></blockquote>
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if, before 8pm ET on June 30, 2023, any of the following sources state that the Wagner Group, or forces aligned with the Wagner Group, control any part of Moscow:
- The Economist
- The New York Times
- Reuters
- The Associated Press
- The Guardian
- The BBC
- Al Jazeera
- South China Morning Post
- [The Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/)
- [International Crisis Group](https://www.crisisgroup.org/)
Fine Print: - For the purposes of this question, "any part of Moscow" means an area equivalent to 1 city block.
- If there are reports of Wagner control of part of Moscow, the question resolves **Yes** unless those reports specifically state that the area of control is obviously smaller than a city block (e.g. a single building). For instance, if credible reports state Wagner forces are cornered in a single building, the question does not resolve **Yes**.
|
2023-06-24T15:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T00:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17569
|
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?
|
> On 23 June 2023, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin alleged that soldiers of the Russian Ministry of Defense were shelling his positions. Prigozhin promised to take revenge on the leadership of the Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin said the "evil" in the military leadership must be stopped and vowed to "March for Justice". ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_mutiny))
Some Russia observers described Prigozhin's actions as an [armed mutiny](https://meduza.io/en/live/2023/06/23/yevgeny-prigozhin-s-coup). Russian security services [called](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-russia-nuclear-647a545db4e4628676ff7db5b1bded34) for Prigozhin's arrest.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if, on June 30 at 7pm ET, Wikipedia lists Yevgeny Prigozhin as the [primary active leader of the Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group) AND Prigozhin is not in Russian custody.
|
2023-06-24T14:00:00Z
|
2023-06-30T18:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T00:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17554
|
Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?
|
Following the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) both countries agreed to the [Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://unctad.org/news/black-sea-grain-initiative-what-it-and-why-its-important-world), which [Wikipedia describes as follows](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative):
>The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February [2022] led to a complete halt of maritime grain shipments from Ukraine, previously a major exporter via the Black Sea. Additionally Russia temporarily halted its grain exports, further exacerbating the situation. This resulted in a rise in world food prices and the threat of famine in lower-income countries, and accusation that Russia weaponizing food supplies. To address the issue, discussions began in April, hosted by Turkey (which controls the maritime routes from the Black Sea) and supported by the UN. The resulting agreement was signed in Istanbul on 22 July 2022, valid for a period of 120 days. The July agreement created procedures to safely export grain from certain ports to attempt to address the 2022 food crisis. A joint coordination and inspection center was set up in Turkey, with the UN serving as secretariat.
>
> . . .
>
>The original agreement was set to expire on 19 November 2022. Russia suspended its participation in the agreement for several days due to a drone attack on Russian naval ships elsewhere in the Black Sea, but rejoined following mediation. On 17 November 2022, the UN and Ukraine announced that the agreement had been extended for a further 120 days. In March 2023, Turkey and the UN announced that they secured a second extension for at least another 60 days. In May 2023, the deal was once again extended for 60 days, expiring on 18 July.
As July 18th approaches some have [speculated on the continuation of the deal](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ukraine-999-certain-russia-will-quit-black-sea-grain-deal-july-envoy-2023-06-22/):
>Russia is 99.9% certain to quit a UN-brokered deal on the safe wartime passage of Black Sea grain next month because it no longer needs Ukrainian ports to export ammonia, a senior Ukrainian diplomat said.
>
>. . .
>
>Moscow has threatened not to extend the agreement beyond 18 July unless a series of demands, including the removal of obstacles to Russian grain and fertiliser exports, are met.
>
>The Black Sea export deal also allows for the safe export of ammonia - an important ingredient in nitrate fertiliser - but none has been shipped under the initiative.
>
>Russia has been pushing for the resumption of ammonia supplies via a pipeline through Ukraine to the Black Sea port of Odesa that has lain idle since last year, Reuters reports.
>
>Olha Trofimtseva, Ukraine’s foreign ministry ambassador at large, said Russian ammonia producer Uralchem had found an alternative route and does not need to export ammonia via Odesa.
>
>“The grain corridor. 99.9% that Russia will leave it in July,” Trofimtseva was reported to have said on Telegram late on Wednesday.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 19, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been extended beyond the current end date of July 18, 2023. To qualify, both Ukraine and Russia must agree to the extension; if it is reported that the deal has been extended but either Ukraine or Russia is no longer a party to the agreement then the question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: This question will still resolve as **Yes** even if the extension is reported to alter the [original terms](https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/resources), so long as credible sources refer to the Black Sea Grain Initiative as being extended. If there are conflicting reports or statements Metaculus will rely primarily on official statements from the United Nations and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if the situation is unclear.
|
2023-07-04T18:00:00Z
|
2023-07-17T22:00:00Z
|
2023-07-17T13:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17547
|
Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?
|
From Wikipedia: On June 18, 2023, the Titan, a submersible operated by OceanGate Expeditions, went missing in the North Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Newfoundland in Canada. The submersible, designed to carry five people, was carrying an expedition of tourists to view the wreckage of RMS Titanic.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if two credible media reports indicate the 'Titan' submersible has been recovered, intact, by noon ET on Thursday, June 22.
|
2023-06-21T02:16:00Z
|
2023-06-22T19:00:00Z
|
2023-06-22T16:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17533
|
Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?
|
Tesla Inc., the renowned electric vehicle (EV) maker, has seen a steady uptrend in its stock value, with a multi-week streak resulting in a [131% increase in share value](https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/15/is-tesla-headed-back-to-trillion-dollar-market/) within the year 2023. This upward surge has elevated the company's market capitalization to over $850 billion.
However, this current valuation still falls short of Tesla's all-time high in 2021, when the company hit a staggering market cap of over $1.2 trillion.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total market capitalization of Tesla (TSLA) is greater than $1 trillion (USD) at any time between June 20, 2023 to July 1, 2023.
Data for market capitalization will come from [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/). If they do not report data for this full period, other credible sources like [YahooFinance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/) may be used.
|
2023-06-22T18:00:00Z
|
2023-06-30T18:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T06:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17530
|
Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?
|
[Voicebox](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/voicebox-generative-ai-model-speech/) is a generative AI model for speech developed by Meta AI. The model is unique in its ability to generalize to speech-generation tasks it was not specifically trained to accomplish. The model can synthesize speech across six languages, perform noise removal, content editing, style conversion, and diverse sample generation. Voicebox uses a method called Flow Matching, which significantly improves upon diffusion models and outperforms the current state of the art English model, VALL-E, on zero-shot text-to-speech.
Despite its potential, Meta has decided not to make the Voicebox model or code publicly available "because of the potential risks of misuse". However, in March 2023, Meta's large language model, LLaMA, was [leaked online within a week of it's release](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/8/23629362/meta-ai-language-model-llama-leak-online-misuse).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if by July 1, 2023, credible media or tech industry reports or the official statements from Meta AI confirm that the Voicebox AI model or its code has been made publicly available, through a leak, hack, or something similar. The final determination of resolution will be made by Metaculus admins based on the evidence available at the time of resolution.
Here "publicly available" means some people not affiliated with Meta or Meta's partners can access Voicebox. Need not be legal access if access is attained due to a leak, as long as that access is widely available.
Fine Print: If the public thing is not called "Voicebox" but admins conclude it is Voicebox or directly derived from it, this still resolves positively.
|
2023-06-21T20:19:00Z
|
2023-06-30T18:00:00Z
|
2023-07-05T16:16:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17517
|
Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?
|
On January 18, 2022, Microsoft, manufacturer of the Xbox video game console, [announced](https://news.microsoft.com/2022/01/18/microsoft-to-acquire-activision-blizzard-to-bring-the-joy-and-community-of-gaming-to-everyone-across-every-device/) an agreement to acquire Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, which would make Microsoft the 3rd largest video game publisher in the world, behind Tencent and Sony. Activision Blizzard's key franchises are Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Overwatch League, Diablo, Hearthstone, and Candy Crush.
As of June 2023, the merger between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard faces delays and uncertainties. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) [filed a lawsuit](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/video-games/ftc-files-block-microsofts-activision-acquisition-deadline-approaches-rcna88966) on June 12, 2023, to block Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard, which led to a federal judge temporarily blocking the $69 billion purchase to allow more time for an antitrust review. This development is the latest in a series of antitrust challenges to the merger.
This is the [link to the merger agreement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/718877/000110465922005154/tm223212d3_ex2-1.htm), signed by Microsoft and Activision Blizzard.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** based on a Microsoft press release stating that it has acquired Activision Blizzard. It resolves as **No** immediately upon an announcement by Microsoft that the acquisition deal has been terminated. Otherwise if no deal has been completed by December 31, 2023, this resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The [merger contract](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/718877/000110465922005154/tm223212d3_ex2-1.htm)
|
2023-07-01T10:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T11:00:00Z
|
2023-10-13T13:02:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17516
|
Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?
|
The [International Math Olympiad (IMO)](https://imo2023.jp/en/) is the oldest international science Olympiad for pre-college students. China's team has dominated the last few years. At last year's (63rd) IMO competition, China had the [top score](https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=2022) of 252 points achieving the maximum allowed score. South Korea came in second with 208 and the US team had 207 for 3rd.
The 2023 IMO will be held from July 2 to July 13, 2023 in Chiba, Japan.
> The competition consists of 6 problems. The competition is held over two consecutive days with 3 problems each; each day the contestants have four-and-a-half hours to solve three problems. Each problem is worth 7 points for a maximum total score of 42 points. Calculators are not allowed. The problems chosen are from various areas of secondary school mathematics, broadly classifiable as geometry, number theory, algebra, and combinatorics. They require no knowledge of higher mathematics such as calculus and analysis, and solutions are often elementary. However, they are usually disguised so as to make the solutions difficult. The problems given in the IMO are largely designed to require creativity and the ability to solve problems quickly. Thus, the prominently featured problems are algebraic inequalities, complex numbers, and construction-oriented geometrical problems, though in recent years, the latter has not been as popular as before because of the algorithmic use of theorems like Muirhead's Inequality, and Complex/Analytic Bash to solve problems. [(Wikipedia)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Mathematical_Olympiad)
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if China has the most points or is tied for the highest point total at the end of the 2023 International Math Olympiad, as reported on the IMO [website](imo-official.org).
|
2023-06-20T16:19:00Z
|
2023-07-12T16:00:00Z
|
2023-07-13T18:12:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17469
|
Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?
|
In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its [Application Programming Interface](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API) (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice of providing the API for free. This [led to an outcry](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/8/23754780/reddit-api-updates-changes-news-announcements) from both developers and users of third-party Reddit apps, as these changes could result in substantial costs for developers and the potential shutdown of many popular third-party apps.
The developer of the popular third-party app, Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, stated he would be liable for an annual cost of $20 million under the new terms. This revelation sparked widespread discontent among Reddit users, [leading to a coordinated protest](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/8/23754780/reddit-api-updates-changes-news-announcements) involving [more than 8,000 Reddit communities](https://reddark.untone.uk/), including some of the largest and most active, going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private indefinitely until Reddit makes changes.
Reddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has [remained resolute](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/9/23755640/reddit-api-changes-apps-apollo-shut-down-ama-spez-steve-huffman) regarding the API changes, emphasizing in an [Ask Me Anything (AMA) session](https://www.reddit.com/r/reddit/comments/145bram/addressing_the_community_about_changes_to_our_api/) and internal memos that the company must proceed with the changes. This stance is perceived as part of Reddit's broader effort to increase profitability, especially given the company's [recent layoffs](https://news.yahoo.com/reddit-laying-off-5-workforce-210002199.html) and plans to break even next year. However, the approach has escalated user dissatisfaction, with some speculating that the changes are an attempt to limit the viability of third-party apps and encourage users to migrate to the official Reddit app.
*Background co-written with ChatGPT.*
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, Reddit announces changes or a delay of implementation to the pricing of its newly announced [data API fees](https://www.reddit.com/r/reddit/comments/145bram/addressing_the_community_about_changes_to_our_api/) for apps that require higher usage. The pricing will be considered to have changed or delayed if Reddit announces any of the following:
* That they will charge anything other than "$0.24 per 1K API calls" or an equivalent amount.
* Any change to their threshold for free API usage of "100 queries per minute per OAuth client id if you are using OAuth authentication and 10 queries per minute if you are not using OAuth authentication".
* That the new pricing will take effect on a date later than July 1, 2023.
Other rates or implementation dates reported to be negotiated with individual organizations do not qualify, this question is asking about the broader official fee structure policy. Metaculus will make the final determination as to whether an announcement qualifies and may **annul** the question in the event it is unclear whether an announcement meets these criteria.
|
2023-06-15T14:01:00Z
|
2023-06-30T22:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T15:59:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17416
|
Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?
|
Common usage of ChatGPT by OpenAI, launched in Nov 2022, greatly reduces the difficulty of artificially generating text. One possible implication of this is an increase in AI-written text on social media, which may challenge norms and assumptions about such platforms.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2024, Twitter formally announces a policy where some text content will be marked as possibly written by AI, and **NO** otherwise.
Resolution will be driven by policy as claimed to be in place by Twitter. Doesn't matter how often this label is used, or for which content, or for which users (for example only in the US, only about US elections, only for Twitter Blue users).
|
2023-06-11T21:46:00Z
|
2024-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T05:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17380
|
Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?
|
On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).
The interview included the following:
"While Sam is calling for regulation of future models, he didn’t think existing models were dangerous and thought it would be a big mistake to regulate or ban them. He reiterated his belief in the importance of open source and said that OpenAI was considering open-sourcing GPT-3. Part of the reason they hadn’t open-sourced yet was that he was skeptical of how many individuals and companies would have the capability to host and serve large LLMs."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2023, GPT-3 is freely available as open source software, and **NO** otherwise.
This means that both the weights of the model are open source, as well as the code for training the model. (It does not require the training data, or any code involved in creating or refining the training data, become open source.)
|
2023-06-08T17:13:00Z
|
2023-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:19:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17379
|
Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?
|
On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).
The interview included the following:
"Quite a few developers said they were nervous about building with the OpenAI APIs when OpenAI might end up releasing products that are competitive to them. Sam said that OpenAI would not release more products beyond ChatGPT. He said there was a history of great platform companies having a killer app and that ChatGPT would allow them to make the APIs better by being customers of their own product. The vision for ChatGPT is to be a super smart assistant for work but there will be a lot of other GPT use-cases that OpenAI won’t touch."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI launches a "product" that meets the following criteria, and **NO** otherwise:
* It is not a version or rebrand of ChatGPT
* It is a consumer product. For example, we count ChatGPT as a product because it is a web interface that has features like code highlighting, plugins, and back-and-forth chat. APIs (like Whisper), models (like DALLE-2), benchmarks (like Gym), or papers alone are not considered products.
* It is generally available to the public. Betas qualify if they are open to the public. Restrictions are ok as long as most adults in at least the US can use it. (For example, an iOS-only app would qualify.)
|
2023-06-08T17:16:00Z
|
2023-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17378
|
Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?
|
On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).
The interview included the following:
"Sam shared what he saw as OpenAI’s provisional near-term roadmap for the API.
2023: Cheaper and faster GPT-4 — This is their top priority. In general, OpenAI’s aim is to drive “the cost of intelligence” down as far as possible and so they will work hard to continue to reduce the cost of the APIs over time."
OpenAI has a history of dramatic price cuts, including a [~2/3 drop in GPT-3's price in August 2022](https://venturebeat.com/ai/openai-is-reducing-the-price-of-the-gpt-3-api-heres-why-it-matters/), and a [~90% drop in GPT-3.5's price in March 2023](https://www.mlyearning.org/chatgpt-api-pricing/).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI announces a price of <= $0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context window GPT-4, and **NO** otherwise.
If the size of context windows change, this will use the lowest context window that is at least 8k tokens.
If pricing is no longer done by the number of prompt tokens, this question will resolve as **ANNULLED**. No pricing by sampled tokens or other methods will be considered.
|
2023-06-08T17:19:00Z
|
2023-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2023-11-06T20:15:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17377
|
Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?
|
On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).
The interview included the following:
"Sam shared what he saw as OpenAI’s provisional near-term roadmap for the API.
2023: A Finetuning API — The finetuning API will be extended to the latest models but the exact form for this will be shaped by what developers indicate they really want."
[Finetuning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine-tuning_(machine_learning)) is updating a pre-trained machine learning model with new data, such that it performs better on that type of new data. For "foundational" models like GPT-4, many people expect finetuning to be critical for many domains, such as software and law.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI releases an API that lets users finetune GPT-4.
"Finetune GPT-4" will be interpreted generally. If OpenAI advertises that the API is for finetuning GPT-4, in a way where the user adds their corpus of training data, that will qualify, regardless of the details of how the finetuning works.
"Release" here means available in a capacity where users can sign up. It may require an application or only allow a certain number of users, but members of the public must be able to at least request access with reasonable expectations of getting it soon.
|
2023-06-08T17:22:00Z
|
2023-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2024-01-11T20:20:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17376
|
Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?
|
On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).
The interview included the following:
"2023: A stateful API — When you call the chat API today, you have to repeatedly pass through the same conversation history and pay for the same tokens again and again. In the future there will be a version of the API that remembers the conversation history."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI releases an API to GPT-4 that "remembers" your history without explicitly passing it back in, and **NO** otherwise.
If unclear, we will defer to whether OpenAI calls the API "stateful", and this will be interpreted broadly.
"Releases" here means available in a capacity where users can sign up. It may require an application or only allow a certain number of users, but members of the public must be able to at least request access with reasonable expectations of getting it soon.
|
2023-06-08T17:23:00Z
|
2023-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2023-11-06T19:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17372
|
Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?
|
[Sierra Leone's Presidential Elections](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/6/1/familiar-faces-concerns-linger-ahead-of-sierra-leones-june-vote) are set for June 24, 2023, with the key contenders being current President Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and Samura Kamara of the All People’s Congress (APC). Bio has formed a strategic alliance with Kandeh Yumkella of the National Grand Coalition (NGC), presenting Bio as the single candidate.
To win in the first round, a candidate must secure [at least 55%](https://ec.gov.sl/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/FAQ_RUNOFF.pdf) of the total votes. Failing this, the election proceeds to a runoff between the top two candidates.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the June 24, 2023, Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone go to a second round. The question will resolve as **No** if any candidate secures 55% or more votes in the first round, thus preventing a runoff.
The resolution will be based on official announcements from the Electoral Commission for Sierra Leone (ECSL). If the ECSL announces that a runoff will be held, the question will resolve **Yes**. If the ECSL announces a winner after the first round of voting, the question will resolve **No**.
If the election is postponed or cancelled for any reason, the question will be **annulled.**
|
2023-06-08T20:21:00Z
|
2023-06-23T16:00:00Z
|
2023-06-27T17:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17370
|
Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?
|
The [NBA Finals](https://www.nba.com/playoffs/2023/the-finals) and the [Stanley Cup Finals](https://www.nhl.com/stanley-cup-playoffs) both feature a best-of-seven series format, which means that a team must win four games to secure the championship. Historically, many series have been decided before reaching a game 7, but some have gone the distance, contributing to some of the most exciting moments in sports history.
The 2023 NBA Finals are being contested between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat. As of June 6th, the first two games have already been played with both teams winning one game each.
In the NHL, the Stanley Cup Finals are being played between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers. The Golden Knights currently lead the series 2-0.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 goes to a game 7.
|
2023-06-07T20:06:00Z
|
2023-06-15T16:00:00Z
|
2023-06-14T02:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17324
|
Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?
|
Ukraine is [widely expected](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/4/22/23693259/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-spring) to launch a counteroffensive this spring.
On June 2, 2023, President Zelenskyy said:
>This isn’t a movie. It’s difficult for me to say how you will see the counteroffensive. The main thing is that Russia sees it, and that it doesn’t just see it, but also feels it. And we mean the troops that have occupied our territory in particular. The result of the counteroffensive is the liberation of our territories. When that happens, you'll know it's happening.
[Preparations](https://kyivindependent.com/on-ukraines-southern-front-line-tension-in-the-air-before-decisive-counteroffensive/) for the offensive are reportedly underway, and Ukrainian officials have said the offensive could come "[soon](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4024987-ukrainian-official-hints-counteroffensive-coming-soon/)."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if two of the following sources publish reports, prior to 11:59pm UTC on Tuesday, June 20, that unequivocally state the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun.
- [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news)
- [The Economist](https://www.economist.com)
- [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com)
- [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com)
For the purposes of this resolution, only these sources will be considered.
To meet the threshold for a **Yes** resolution, a report must rely on sourced reporting. Sourced reporting can include government sources quoted on condition of anonymity, but the report must not be an opinion piece.
For example:
- The hypothetical statement "A high-level official in the US intelligence community stated, on the condition of anonymity, that Ukraine's counteroffensive began on June 9th" would be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.
- The hypothetical statements "Ukraine's much-anticipated offensive may begin at any moment" or "It appears Ukraine's offensive may have begun" would not be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.
If there is ambiguity about whether a statement meets this threshold, a team of three Metaculus moderators will make the final determination.
Fine Print: It is possible the actual start date of the offensive is before June 21, 2023 and that there is evidence available attesting to an earlier start date, but that the question resolves **No** because that evidence has not been reported definitively in one of the four listed outlets.
|
2023-06-03T16:17:00Z
|
2023-06-21T00:00:00Z
|
2023-06-08T15:38:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17323
|
Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?
|
The [AI Act](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu) is a proposed law in the European Union to regulate artificial intelligence. If approved, the Act would impose [new rules](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230505IPR84904/ai-act-a-step-closer-to-the-first-rules-on-artificial-intelligence) governing the deployment of AI systems.
The current [proposal](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-europe-fit-for-the-digital-age/file-regulation-on-artificial-intelligence?sid=7001) would base rules on a risk classification system, with four levels of risk:
> - **Unacceptable risk AI.** Harmful uses of AI that contravene EU values (such as social scoring by governments) will be banned because of the unacceptable risk they create;
> - **High-risk AI**. A number of AI systems (listed in an Annex) that are creating adverse impact on people's safety or their fundamental rights are considered to be high-risk. In order to ensure trust and consistent high level of protection of safety and fundamental rights, a range of mandatory requirements (including a conformity assessment) would apply to all high-risks systems;
- **Limited risk AI.** Some AI systems will be subject to a limited set of obligations (e.g. transparency);
- **Minimal risk AI.** All other AI systems can be developed and used in the EU without additional legal obligations than existing legislation.
On May 11th, the EU Parliament’s Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs and Committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection [adopted a negotiating mandate](https://ogletree.com/insights/european-parliaments-leading-committees-vote-to-approve-ai-act/) for the AI Act.
Before the final law can be negotiated, the EU Parliament needs to endorse this negotiating mandate. Parliament is in session June 12-15, with debate on the AI act [scheduled](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/sedcms/documents/PRIORITY_INFO/1027/SYN_POJ_June_STR_EN.pdf) for June 13th.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if the EU Parliament endorses a negotiating mandate for the [AI Act](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-europe-fit-for-the-digital-age/file-regulation-on-artificial-intelligence?sid=7001) before June 16, 2023.
|
2023-06-03T15:15:00Z
|
2023-06-16T02:00:00Z
|
2023-06-14T12:13:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17322
|
Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election?
|
Georgia is a former Soviet republic that declared its independence in 1991 and has since pursued a pro-Western course, aspiring to join the European Union and NATO. However, Georgia’s territorial integrity has been challenged by Russia, which supports two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and invaded Georgia in 2008. Russia also considers Georgia to be within its sphere of influence and opposes its integration with the West.
Irakli Garibashvili is a Georgian politician and a former business executive who has served as the prime minister of Georgia since 22 February 2021. Garibashvili has tried to balance Georgia’s Western aspirations with pragmatic engagement with Russia, while avoiding direct confrontation or provocation. He has expressed his commitment to joining NATO and the EU, but has also maintained diplomatic and economic ties with Russia, which is Georgia’s largest trading partner. He has condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and supported its territorial integrity, but has also refrained from joining the Western sanctions against Russia. He has called for dialogue and cooperation with Russia on resolving the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but has also rejected any compromise on Georgia’s sovereignty.
As of Spring 2023, considerable political uncertainty existed in Georgia stemming from the disputed parliamentary elections in October 2020. The opposition parties have refused to recognize the results and have boycotted the parliament, demanding new elections and electoral reforms. The crisis has led to mass protests, violence, arrests and international mediation efforts. Garibashvili has agreed to some concessions, such as releasing some political prisoners and promising electoral reforms, but has also rejected some demands of the opposition, such as early elections or power-sharing arrangements.
The human rights situation in Georgia has deteriorated, with increasing attacks on civil society activists, journalists, opposition figures and minority groups. Garibashvili has been accused of failing to protect human rights defenders and media freedom, cracking down on dissenting voices and enabling a climate of impunity for perpetrators of violence.
Georgia's next parliamentary elections, which will elect the 150 members of the Parliament of Georgia for a four-year term, are to be held on 26 October 2024.
Resolution Criteria: A "significant leadership disruption" includes confirmed reports that Garibashvili has:
* resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date),
* lost a confidence vote,
* lost an election,
* formally left office,
* died,
* been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days,
* fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days,
* been medically incapacitated from discharging their duties for 10 or more consecutive days,
* been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days.
Resolution will be according to reliable published reports
|
2023-06-04T20:00:00Z
|
2024-10-26T08:00:00Z
|
2024-01-29T14:34:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17316
|
Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?
|
As of 1. June the [Ukrainian spring counteroffensive](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/30/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-preparations-intl/index.html ) has [not yet happened](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-war-attack-b962aba2b779044d22b11dab719f1614). In preparation for this counter offensive, the Ukrainian army allegedly has [formed several new battalions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/02/ukraine-forms-eight-new-storm-brigades-for-counterattack), several of them with [western tanks and AFVs]().
Accordingly, the Russian side has reacted to this threat by [building defensive fortifications](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-building-defensive-fortifications-zaporizhzhia-ukraine-counteroffensive-1795285) in territories it controls.
The counteroffensive itself seems to be quite [imminent](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/27/world/europe/ukraine-tanks-counteroffensive.html) or might have already even have [begun](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/27/first-operations-in-ukraine-counteroffensive-have-begun-says-top-official).
As the city of Polohy is about 20 km from the frontline and in the direction towards which it is ["most obvious"](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/12/ukraine-has-choice-of-targets-as-it-plots-counteroffensive) the counteroffensive would take place towards it is apparent to ask - will the Ukrainian army manage to retake Polohy with this summer offensive?
Resolution Criteria: The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).
The question will resolve Yes if, at any point before or by 1. Oct 2023, ISW shows the the following two locations:
- (Polohy Train station [47.47675302706511, 36.2585252900517](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Polohy/@47.4766526,36.2585067,17.21z/data=!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x40dd9b2649ab981b:0xd41838f7245d598!2sPolohy,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+70600!3b1!8m2!3d47.4747938!4d36.2488829!16zL20vMGd0MjNk!3m5!1s0x40dd9b287f9a747b:0x15bbdf72e7132a39!8m2!3d47.4766792!4d36.2584675!16s%2Fg%2F1pv17_nm?entry=ttu)
- House of Culture "Miner" [47.49121534220172, 36.191507899530706](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Budynok+Kul%CA%B9tury+%22Hirnyk%22/@47.4885074,36.1914102,14.81z/data=!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x40dd9b2649ab981b:0xd41838f7245d598!2sPolohy,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+70600!3b1!8m2!3d47.4747938!4d36.2488829!16zL20vMGd0MjNk!3m5!1s0x40dd9bba4e3d33b9:0x7449dfd318d8c9fe!8m2!3d47.4908382!4d36.1908582!16s%2Fg%2F11csbfflvv?entry=ttu)
under any of the following categories:
- Ukrainian Control
- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives
- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location
The question will resolve No if by 1. Oct 2023 the aforementioned places are assessed to be still be within the following categories:
- Assessed Russian Control
- Assessed Russian Advance
- Claimed Russian Control
- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building
The exact location of these places on [ISW map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) can be found by clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for
"Budynok Kulʹtury "Hirnyk", Polohy, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 70600" for the House of Culture. The train station couldn't be searched for easily, but it is quite distinctly findable on the map because of the surrounding railways.
The spirit of the question is to assess a possible summer offensives possibility of retaking Polohy. As summer offensives can lead into fall/autumn and it takes time for information to be known with any degree of certainty, the success of this possible summer offensive question was extended to 1. October.
Fine Print: This question is about whether the Ukraine manages to take back Polohy, not whether they are still holding it by 1 Oct. As such this question can be resolved as a Yes the moment aforementioned conditions are satisfied.
|
2023-06-09T18:00:00Z
|
2023-09-30T20:59:00Z
|
2023-10-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17294
|
Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?
|
The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) also serves as the Chair of the FOMC.
The primary responsibility of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in order to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. To achieve these goals, the FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers.
The next FOMC meeting will be [June 13-14](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if the Federal Open Market Committee announces an increase in the target [Fed Funds Rate](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/federal-funds-rate/#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Open%20Markets%20Committee,currently%205.00%25%20to%205.25%25.), above the current target of 5.00 - 5.25, during the June 13-14, 2023 meeting.
Fine Print: An increase announced before June 13 will not trigger a **Yes** resolution.
|
2023-06-02T16:00:00Z
|
2023-06-14T16:00:00Z
|
2023-06-14T18:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17293
|
Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?
|
[Transparent Replications](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in *Nature* or *Science* involving online participants. “[Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119)” is one of the most recent psychology papers involving online participants published in the *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*. Study 1 from that paper met our [criteria for replication](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/what-we-do/).
### Context: How often have social science studies replicated in the past?
In [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.)
In [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in *Nature* or *Science* (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.
The replication described here was run as part of Transparent Replications by Clearer Thinking, which has not run enough replications yet for us to give any base replication rates. Having said that, if you’re interested in reading more about the project, you can read more [here](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/). And [here is where you can find write-ups for the previous replications we’ve completed](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replications/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if we find a positive statistically significant (\(p < 0.05\)) coefficient for the “social portfolio diversity” variable (defined below) in a linear regression predicting well-being (with a measure of the total amount of in-person social interaction included as a control variable). Otherwise it will resolve as **No**.
# Original Study Results
The primary hypothesis in the [original study](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119) was that in-person social portfolio diversity predicts higher well-being, even when controlling for the proportion of episodes in the day that included in-person social interaction.
The authors ran a linear regression predicting participants' well-being, with (1) social portfolio diversity and (2) the proportion of episodes in the day that included in-person social interaction as predictor variables. They found a positive, statistically significant (\(p < 0.05\)) coefficient for social portfolio diversity. We will consider this result to have replicated if we also find a positive, statistically significant coefficient for that variable when we run the same linear regression using newly-collected data.
# Study Summary
<img src="https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Prediction_Version_-_Collins_et_al_Study_1_Diagram_UhNkYE8.jpeg" alt="Summary of study 'Relation diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being" />
*[Higher resolution version available here](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xHYpaWcNHdes_fyF8vnzuK6p03ElWpa9/view?usp=sharing)*
In the [original study](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119) and in our replication, participants answered questions about their subjective well-being, then they filled out a diary reporting on their day the previous day. For each episode of their day they were asked if they were with anyone else in person. When they reported spending time in-person with others, they were asked to check off the relationship types they had with the people who were present (e.g., spouse/significant other, friends, co-workers, etc.) Participants then answered an attention check question and a few demographic questions.
The social portfolio diversity variable, in both the original study and in our replication, is calculated using the following equation:
\[H = -1*\sum_{i=1}^s (p_i*\ln p_i),\]
The original study authors chose this formula because it is similar to Shannon’s biodiversity index. The equation involves computing, for each of the relationship categories a person reported having interactions with, the proportion of their total interactions that this category represented (which the authors call “\(p_i\)”). For each category of relationship, this proportion is multiplied by its natural logarithm. Finally, all these products are summed together and multiplied by negative one so that the final result is a positive number.
The proportion of episodes of in-person social interaction is the number of episodes in the day reported with in-person social interaction over the total number of episodes reported for the day.
The well-being dependent variable is calculated by averaging two questions about subjective well-being, one asking about how happy the person has felt over the last 24 hours (from 0 to 10), and the other asking them to place themselves on a ladder from 0 to 10 representing how well their life is going.
The original study included 578 participants after excluding participants who failed the attention check. Our replication included 963 participants after excluding those who failed the attention check (which meant we had 90% power to detect an effect size as low as 75% of the original effect size) recruited from MTurk via [Positly](https://www.positly.com/). [You can preview our replication study (as participants saw it) here](https://www.guidedtrack.com/programs/ardof21/preview).
|
2023-05-31T15:20:00Z
|
2023-06-14T22:00:00Z
|
2023-06-20T00:13:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17262
|
Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?
|
On May 24, 2023, OpenAI reported a 51-minute outage of ChatGPT (chat.openai.com), causing workers all over the world to grudgingly consider doing their jobs unassisted during that time. OpenAI has a [status page](https://status.openai.com/uptime?page=1) showing, for each calendar day, the number of hours that OpenAI's services were unavailable.
For chat.openai.com (the web interface, ChatGPT), the uptime has been published since Feburary, with Feburary at 98.28%, March at 99.39%, April at 99.96%, and 99.83% for May as of May 24, 2023.
Software reliability is often measured in "number of 9"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc. To reach 99.9% uptime, a service must be down for no more than 43 minutes in a 30-day month.
ChatGPT reportedly was the software product that grew to 100 million users the fastest of any software product ever, and may struggle to handle the load. However, it would be reasonable to expect it to get more stable over time, and before the outage on May 24, was on track for May to reach 99.9%. What will happen in June?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves to **YES** if, on July 1, [OpenAI's status page](https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69?page=1) for chat.openai.com reports >=99.9% uptime for the month of June, and **NO** otherwise.
Forecasters can find the uptime in grey text to the right of the relevant month.
Resolution will be based on this page alone, even if considered inaccurate in its reporting. If no such data is reported for June, this question resolves as **AMBIGUOUS**.
|
2023-05-27T02:26:00Z
|
2023-06-30T19:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T15:57:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17260
|
Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?
|
From [Reuters on May 24, 2023](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-may-leave-eu-if-regulations-bite-ceo-2023-05-24), "OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on Wednesday the ChatGPT maker might consider leaving Europe if it could not comply with the upcoming artificial intelligence (AI) regulations by the European Union."
The [EU AI Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) "regulates the providers of artificial intelligence systems, and entities making use of them in a professional capacity." As of May 24, 2024, [Metaculus expects](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8787/passing-of-the-ai-act/) the AI Act to be passed between Oct 2023 and Nov 2024, with a median of April 2024, though OpenAI could choose to cease offering ChatGPT in Europe earlier than that, or for some other reason entirely.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **YES** if [ChatGPT](chat.openai.com) is generally available in the EU on June 30, 2024, and **NO** otherwise.
"Generally available" here means that the default state for people in the EU is that they can access it without a VPN (possibly requiring paying for it.) If unavailable in certain EU countries (as was the case in Italy in early 2023), or unavailable to (for example) minors, this will still resolve positively, assuming at least >50% of the population can use it.
"ChatGPT" here refers to the general web interface (not the API) for interacting with GPT models. Still resolves positively if the name or website has changed, as long as OpenAI's service is substantially the same (entering queries to systems based on Large Language Models).
|
2023-05-26T15:07:00Z
|
2024-06-30T19:00:00Z
|
2024-07-12T12:12:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17250
|
Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?
|
Linda Yaccarino, the former advertising chief of NBCUniversal, has been [appointed as the CEO of Twitter](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/12/tech/twitter-ceo-linda-yaccarino/index.html) by Elon Musk, the owner of the platform. She's expected to [assume the role in late June, 2023](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1656748197308674048). The selection of Yaccarino indicates Musk's focus on Twitter's advertising business and his plans to revamp the social network into [X, the “everything app”](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/11/elon-musk-twitter-new-ceo). Yaccarino has a strong background in the advertising industry and is known for her influential role in Madison Avenue.
Assuming the role of Twitter CEO, Yaccarino will face various challenges, including Twitter's struggles to expand its advertising business, gaps in expertise and technical glitches, and the company's substantial debt. Additionally, she will have to navigate the unpredictable nature of working with Musk.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Linda Yaccarino is in the position of CEO at Twitter on July 1, 2024, according to official announcements from Twitter or credible media sources.
|
2023-05-27T02:28:00Z
|
2024-06-30T22:00:00Z
|
2024-07-02T11:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17247
|
Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?
|
WWDC is Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference. Each year they launch updates to Apple hardware and software.
On April 16, 2023, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-04-16/apple-wwdc-2023-june-5-plan-reality-headset-new-macs-watchos-10-ios-17-lgjfj5bf) "Apple has several new models in the works: a 15-inch MacBook Air, an updated 13-inch MacBook Air, an entry-level 13-inch MacBook Pro, a refreshed 24-inch iMac, the first Mac Pro with in-house chips and updated high-end MacBook Pro models. All of these should go on sale either this year or in early 2024."
[Macrumors reported](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/16/new-macbooks-at-wwdc-gurman/) the same day that "15-inch MacBook Air rumors began in early 2021, and it appears the laptop is nearing release. Apple's suppliers have reportedly [ramped up production of 15-inch display panels](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/10/15-inch-macbook-air-component-production/) for the laptop, and the machine recently [surfaced in App Store developer logs](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/14/15-inch-macbook-air-m2-like-chip-logs/)."
See the 13" offerings on the [Apple store](https://www.apple.com/macbook-air/).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple announces a 15 inch "Macbook Air" at WWDC from June 5-9, and **No** otherwise.
Fine Print: 15 inch refers to the diagonal width. The exact dimensions do not matter—if the device is advertised as 15 inches, it qualifies.
It must be called a Macbook Air to resolve Yes. Introduction of new, comparable laptops will not trigger a Yes resolution.
|
2023-05-26T12:00:00Z
|
2023-06-05T12:00:00Z
|
2023-06-05T17:04:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17246
|
Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?
|
[Elizabeth Holmes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Holmes) is the founder and former CEO of Theranos, a now-defunct health technology company. Theranos claimed to have revolutionized blood testing by developing testing methods that could use surprisingly small volumes of blood. However, it was revealed that the technology did not work as advertised. Holmes was subsequently charged with multiple counts of fraud for misleading investors, doctors, and patients.
Holmes's case has been closely watched as it casts a harsh light on Silicon Valley’s culture of hubris. She has been ordered to [report to prison on May 30, 2023](https://apnews.com/article/elizabeth-holmes-theranos-prison-reporting-date-9fd718cd012d49f68c654bad89abb0ed#:~:text=Elizabeth%20Holmes%20will%20start%2011,her%20bid%20to%20remain%20free) after losing her latest bid to remain free.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible media sources report that Elizabeth Holmes is in prison on May 31, 2023.
Fine Print: If no sources report anything, it will be assumed that she reported to prison on time and will resolve **Yes**.
|
2023-05-26T13:00:00Z
|
2023-05-29T10:00:00Z
|
2023-05-31T20:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17241
|
Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?
|
[General elections for Alberta's Legislative Assembly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Alberta_general_election) will be held on May 29th. The incumbent United Conservative Party under Danielle Smith will be seeking their second term, while their main challengers are the New Democratic Party under Rachel Notley, who held government between 2015 and 2019. Polls show a tight race, with different pollsters showing different parties in the lead.
In this first-past-the-post election, no party outside these two is expected to win any seats, although [one UCP candidate](https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/danielle-smith-jennifer-johnson-anti-lgbtq-remarks) will not be allowed in the party caucus due to offensive remarks (although she remains on the ballot with her affiliation), creating a possibility that both major parties end up tied at 43 seats won.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if, following the election, the [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news) election results page shows the UCP with more seats than any other party (with or without a majority).
The page will be checked on June 5, 2023.
|
2023-05-27T02:43:00Z
|
2023-05-30T05:50:00Z
|
2023-06-05T15:05:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17202
|
Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?
|
The closing stock price of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) on 25th of May 2023 was [379.80 USD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history?period1=1653523200&period2=1685059200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true).
This is a significant increase from the lows in October 2022 of $108.13. Furthermore PE and sales multiples are [historically very high](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjWsbvPg4b_AhVyx4sKHUkyC-MQ3ecFegQIOhAh&window=1Y).
Market Commentators [have expressed concern](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-buyer-beware-comes-ai-103035210.html) that NVIDIA is overvalued and in a bubble as part of the excitement related to AI technology.
This question asks specifically about reaching a specific lower price in the near future to assess the probability of short position on NVIDIA. This probability is especially interesting as it can be compared to probabilities on the open market involving monetary commitments.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point after May 26, 2023, and before January 1, 2025, the stock of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) trades below $250 for a full day, as confirmed by either [Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi6wdiT7ZP_AhWrtYkEHRSqAeoQ3ecFegQILhAh) or [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/) data. The question resolves as **No** if the stock did not trade below $250 for a full day after May 26, 2023 and before January 1, 2025.
Adjustments will be made in case of a stock split, merger, or other change to the ticker or company to continue to use an equivalent measure. Metaculus may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** in the event that a clear adjustment cannot be easily made, including but not limited to the example of a bigger company buying NVIDIA resulting in no longer being able to determine the price of NVIDIA.
|
2023-05-27T20:52:00Z
|
2024-12-30T18:00:00Z
|
2025-01-04T03:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17180
|
Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?
|
"Deepfakes" or "Deep fakes" are synthetic media created with generative AI that imitate real media, but have people saying or doing things they did not actually do. This can be in the form of a static image, a short video, or an audio recording with no video.
In May 2022, a deepfake video of Elon Musk promoting a scam cryptocurrency went viral on social media, to which Elon [replied on Twitter "Yikes. Def not me."](https://decrypt.co/101365/deepfake-video-elon-musk-crypto-scam-goes-viral). In June 2022, [Google banned deepfake-generate AI from its Colab tool](https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/01/2328459/?guccounter=1). In May 2023, a deepfake image showed an explosion at the US Pentagon, which was picked up by media and caused a [temporary huge drop in stock markets](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/s-p-sheds-500-billion-from-fake-pentagon-explosion).
As of May 2023, no major political scandal has erupted due to a particular deepfake successfully convincing a large block of voters that a politician did or said something they didn't actually do.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2024, a politician in an election with >3M votes cast in a [G20 country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20) claims that they lost an election due to a deepfake video, image, or audio recording of them.
Fine Print: * "Claim they lost" will be interpreted broadly - the politician need not say it was solely responsible, but they must make a big deal out of it according to Metaculus admins.
* Standard text-based propaganda does not count as a "deepfake". So for example, claims about misinformation in the 2016 US Presidential election would not qualify for this question.
|
2023-05-23T18:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2025-01-09T00:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17179
|
Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?
|
As more of the world's infrastructure has major digital components, cyberattacks have the potential to become more common and lead to bigger disasters. None, however, have been directly attributed to AI systems. Non-AI cyberattacks on infrastructure include:
* In May 2021, a [ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_Pipeline_ransomware_attack) caused widespread fuel shortages in the eastern United States. The attack, which was carried out by a group called DarkSide, forced Colonial Pipeline to shut down its operations for several days.
* In August 2022, a ransomware attack took down [many different parts of England's National Health Service](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/11/nhs-ransomware-attack-what-happened-and-how-bad-is-it) that led to system outages for several weeks.
* In Oct 2022, a DDOS attack [took down several US airline websites](https://purplesec.us/security-insights/killnet-ddos-airport-websites/), and was attributed to Killnet, a pro-Russian hacker group.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2024, cybersecurity experts publicly attribute a cyberattack on infrastructure causing at least $1B in damages in a [G20 country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20) to an AI-based system, and **NO** otherwise.
The attribution to an AI-based system must be one of (a) AI autonomously triggering the attack; or (b) Humans asking an agentic AI system to attack (e.g. HackGPT), or (c) the attack results from AI conducting mass high-quality social engineering.
Since the full details are unlikely to be revealed, it is sufficient that (a), (b), or (c) above is deemed the most likely cause of the attack by security experts who investigate.
Fine Print: * "infrastructure" will be interpreted broadly, like the examples in the background info. The targets may be private entities if the damage is felt by the public, as with attacks on energy, food, and hospital systems.
* Monetary damage of the attack will be inferred from general media. If unclear, admins will take the single most authoritative news source on the attack to determine the $ amount.
|
2023-05-23T18:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2025-01-15T21:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17178
|
Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?
|
In January 2023, a report by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) found that the theft of IP (intellectual property) is a growing problem. The report found that the value of stolen IP is estimated to be between $2 trillion and $6 trillion per year. None, however, have been attributed to AI systems that probe for weaknesses. Recent high-profile examples of non-AI-based theft of IP include:
In 2022, a [Chinese national was arrested in the United States](https://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/former-glaxosmithkline-scientist-pleads-guilty-stealing-trade-secrets-benefit-chinese) for stealing trade secrets from GSK.
In January 2023, Riot Games, the developer of well-known video games League of Legends and Valorant, [said that hackers recently stole the source code](https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/riot-games-league-of-legends-source-code-cyberattack) for some of its most popular games in a recent breach.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2024, cybersecurity experts publicly attributes IP theft of value at least $10M in to an AI-based system, and **NO** otherwise.
The attribution to an AI-based system must be one of (a) AI autonomously triggering the theft; or (b) Humans asking an agentic AI system to hack and steal IP (e.g. HackGPT), or (c) the theft results from AI conducting mass high-quality social engineering.
Since the full details are unlikely to be revealed, it is sufficient that (a), (b), or (c) above is deemed the most likely cause of the attack by security experts who investigate.
Fine Print: * Monetary value of the IP will be inferred from general media. If unclear, admins will take the single most authoritative news source on the attack to determine the $ amount. If not specified, admins will infer the value is >$10M if they infer the hack is major, as was the case in with the Riot games theft in the background info.
|
2023-05-23T18:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2025-01-15T21:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17177
|
Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?
|
Attacks on voting machines are becoming more common. In Dec 2022, the Brennan Center for Justice wrote that "In 2016, Russian hackers targeted election systems in all 50 states. No votes were actually changed, but the hackers penetrated at least Illinois’s database deeply enough to have the ability to delete or change voter data. Few election officials even noticed the digital incursions.
It couldn’t have been a particularly difficult mission for Russia’s army of hackers: Many U.S. voting machines were more than a decade old. Some were so outdated that officials had to buy spare parts on eBay. A few were running Windows 2000." In April 2023, it called for funding from DHS, CISA, EAC, and the FBI to direct more resources to combat these threats.
European countries have also expressed concerns, with the European Union Agency for Network and Information Security (ENISA) stating that "Core electoral
systems are being targeted by digital communities, institutions, and actors." ([pdf](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/enisa-foresight-cybersecurity-threats-for-2030/@@download/fullReport).
As of May 2023, no major attacks on voting systems have been directly attributable to AI.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2024, cybersecurity experts publicly attribute a successful attack on election infrastructure in a [G20 country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20) to an AI-based system, and **NO** otherwise.
The attribution to an AI-based system must be one of (a) AI autonomously triggering the attack; or (b) Humans asking an agentic AI system to attack (e.g. HackGPT), or (c) the attack results from AI conducting mass high-quality social engineering on people responsible for election systems.
Any successful attack qualifies, regardless of how many votes or voting machines were compromised, but the target must be the *actual process of collecting or counting votes*, not information about voting (such as a DDOS attack against a government website with voting information), or general disinformation campaigns.
|
2023-05-23T18:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2025-01-09T00:29:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17176
|
Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?
|
Erratic trading in stock markets like the NYSE, NASDAQ, and LSE is an increasing problem, though as of May 2023, not directly due to AI, though perhaps due to high-frequency trading (HFT).
Examples of Flash Crashes were the [2010 drop of 1,000 points in the DOW for disputed reasons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_flash_crash) and the [2022 European stock flash crash due to human error](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_crash#Flash_Crash_of_European_Stock_Markets_on_May_2,_2022).
In May 2023, a deepfake image showed an explosion at the US Pentagon, which was picked up by media and caused a [temporary huge drop in stock markets](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/s-p-sheds-500-billion-from-fake-pentagon-explosion).
In all of these cases, prices recovered quickly and no exchanges were halted.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2024, mainstream news attributes a major stock exchange halting trading for >24 hours due to AI, and **NO** otherwise.
"Due to AI" means the exchange is said to have halted trading due to either:
* Due to AI trading, such as high-frequency trading gone haywire, or
* Due to erratic human trading caused by AI-created misinformation, such as deepfakes
Fine Print: * "Major stock exchange" is defined as a [top 10 exchange by monthly trading volume](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_exchanges), including NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE, and a major exchange in each of China, India, South Korea, and Hong Kong.
|
2023-05-23T18:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2025-01-09T00:25:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17174
|
Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?
|
The [Palme d'Or](https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/the-festival/the-palme-d-or/) is the most prestigious award presented at the Cannes Film Festival, an internationally renowned film festival held annually in Cannes, France. First introduced in 1955, the Palme d'Or is awarded to the film judged to be the best among the official selection of feature films in competition. The [winner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palme_d%27Or) is selected by a jury composed of esteemed members of the film industry, including filmmakers, actors, and other industry professionals.
The Palme d'Or represents a significant achievement and recognition for the winning film, elevating its status and often boosting its global recognition and distribution opportunities. Over the years, the award has been bestowed upon remarkable films from various countries, showcasing the diverse talent and creativity in the international film landscape.
Resolution Criteria: The question will be resolved based on the official announcement of the Palme d'Or winner at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival. If the film awarded the Palme d'Or is originates from a European country the question will resolve **yes**.
European countries are the ones on [this list](https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/europe/) as defined by the CIA.
Fine Print: - If there are multiple countries of origin listed for the film, the question with resolve **yes** if half or more of the countries are in Europe.
- The country/countries of origin will be determined from the Cannes official listing for the film. See [here](https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/f/triangle-of-sadness/) for a sample of last year's winner, from Sweden.
|
2023-05-19T18:00:00Z
|
2023-05-26T18:00:00Z
|
2023-05-27T22:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17114
|
Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?
|
Thailand held an [election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16728/seats-won-by-opposition-parties/) on May 14th, 2023. The [result](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/old-rivalries-new-battle-thailand-goes-polls-2023-05-13/) shocked pollsters and political pundits alike — the Move Forward Party (MFP) came in first, with 152 out of 500 Member of Parliament (MP) seats. Other parties won the following seats (ranked from highest to lowest):
- Pheu Thai Party: 141
- Bhumjaithai Party: 70
- Palang Pracharat Party: 41
- United Thai Nation Party: 36
- Democrat Party: 24
- Chart Thai Pattana Party: 10
- Prachachat Party: 9
- Thai Sang Thai: 6
- Others: 11
However, a prime minister candidate is confirmed only if they receive at least 376 votes (i.e., more than half of the 500 MP and 250 senators combined). As of May 16th, 2023, the MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat has expressed its intention to form a coalition government with Pheu Thai and other smaller parties, garnering 309 votes. [Bangkok Post](https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2571327/ball-now-in-senates-court).
Moreover, the Pheu Thai party has agreed to the above plan and declared it would not compete with the MFP to form a government [Nikkei Asia](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Thai-election/Thailand-s-Move-Forward-to-form-coalition-with-Pheu-Thai).
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** based on reputable reports that Pita Limjaroenra has been confirmed as the prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023.
|
2023-05-28T02:34:00Z
|
2023-06-30T16:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17103
|
Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?
|
AI and its ability to have broad impacts on society, became much more common topics in news and social media in early 2023 with the release of OpenAI's ChatGPT. US Presidential debates, however, generally focus on a set of more narrowly framed societal issues. For example, the [2020 debates between Biden and Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_debates) had segments on each of "fighting COVID-19, American families, race in America, climate change, national security, and leadership".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if both Democratic and Republican candidates say at least 2 sentences largely about AI during the official 2024 Presidential debates, and otherwise resolve as **NO**.
Fine Print: The discussion of AI must be about it being relevant for American policy. For example, discussing AI in the context of job loss, misinformation campaigns, schooling, or American competitiveness qualifies; discussing using ChatGPT to tell a joke does not. If not obvious, admins will resolve this by whether they infer the 2 sentences from each candidate as being related to one of the major platform points.
AI need not be an explicit topic of the debates.
If there isn't at least one official 2024 Presidential Debate, this question resolves as ANNULLED.
|
2023-05-17T15:19:00Z
|
2024-10-31T19:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T18:10:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-17090
|
Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?
|
On Friday, May 12, two US officials [told news sources](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kinzhal-missile-targeted-patriot-battery-report-claims) that Russia launched a hypersonic [Kh-47 Kinzhal](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-use-in-ukraine) missile towards a [Patriot Missile battery in Ukraine](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64231654).
Ukraine has [at least two](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/12/politics/russia-patriot-missiles-ukraine/index.html) such batteries, one from the United States and one from Germany.
> The Patriot missile system has a powerful radar to detect incoming targets at long-range, making it a potent air defense platform capable of intercepting ballistic missiles and more. But the radar emission necessary to spot threats at a distance also makes it possible for the enemy to detect the Patriot battery and figure out its location. And unlike some shorter-range air defenses provided to Ukraine that are mobile and harder to target, the large Patriot battery is a stationary system, making it possible for the Russians to zero in on the location over time.
[Ukraine said](https://www.npr.org/2023/05/06/1174505616/ukraine-patriot-defense-russian-hypersonic-missile-kinzhal) the Russian hypersonic missile was shot down by a Patriot battery.
According to the US Congressional Research Service, a new Patriot battery costs approximately $1.1 billion, including $400 million for the system and $690 million for the missiles.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if two credible reports state a Patriot Missile battery in Ukraine has been substantially damaged or destroyed by Russia. At least [one of the six major components](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12297#:~:text=PATRIOT%20System%20Costs&text=According%20to%20a%20December%2016,%24690%20million%20for%20the%20missiles.) of a Patriot battery in Ukraine must be destroyed:
1. The power plant (two vehicle-mounted 150 KW generators)
2. The radar set
> The Radar Set provides detection and tracking of targets as well as fire control. The phased array radar helps guide interceptors to their targets and is resistant to jamming.
3. The engagement control station
> The Engagement Control Station calculates trajectories for interceptors and controls the launching sequence. It communicates with the launcher stations and other PATRIOT batteries. It is the only manned station in a PATRIOT fire unit.
4. The launcher stations
>The Launcher Stations transport and protect the interceptor missiles and provide the platform for the physical launch of the missile. Each launcher station can accommodate four PAC-2 missiles or 16 PAC-3 missiles.
5. The antenna mast group
> The Antenna Mast Group is the main communications backbone for the PATRIOT unit.
6. The interceptor systems
> The Interceptor Missiles: PAC-2 is a proximity fusing missile, which explodes near an incoming missile, PAC-3 has been specifically designed to intercept and destroy missiles by impacting them directly with kinetic energy- known as “hit to kill.”
The question will also resolve **Yes** if any of these systems, or the battery as a whole, is reported to be "substantially damaged" or equivalent. To be considered substantially damaged, reports must indicate that the battery has been rendered inoperable or ineffective, pending repairs.
Fine Print: Interceptor missiles destroyed when fired by Ukrainian forces will not be sufficient to resolve this question.
If a Patriot system destroys itself, for example due to misfunction, the question will not resolve as **Yes**.
If a Patriot system is sabotaged and the acting party is unknown but assumed to be Russian-aligned forces by credible reports, the question will resolve **Yes**.
|
2023-05-18T13:00:00Z
|
2023-06-30T18:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16792
|
Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?
|
The [Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZNPP) (ZNPP) is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, with an electric output of 5.7 GWh. After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces took control over the plant.
The [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Agency) (IAEA) has requested Russia to relinquish control over the plant, a request that so far Russia has refused. Ukraine has also made attempts to recapture the plant by force, which so far have failed.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as 'yes' if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Ukrainian forces are in physical control over the ZNPP, on or before December 31, 2023, and maintain that control for at least seven consecutive days. Otherwise, the question will resolve as 'no.' If control is maintained for seven consecutive days, the question will resolve as "yes," regardless of whether control changes again after that date.
Fine Print: The presence, or invitation, of IAEA personnel, UN observers or peacekeepers, Russian military or civilian personnel, or any other parties, or the striking of any deals between Russia and Ukraine, will not be sufficient to resolve as 'yes', unless Ukraine is reported to be in physical control of the site on or before the expiry date.
The international status, operational status, or any accidents or incidents at the ZNPP, do not by themselves affect the resolution outcome.
|
2023-05-12T23:15:00Z
|
2024-01-01T08:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T22:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16787
|
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?
|
Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) were the top two candidates for US President in 2020. Both have declared their candidacy for the presidency in 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump and Joe Biden, in either order, are the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received in the 2024 US Presidential Election. The question resolves based on the votes as counted by Congress and entered into the Congressional record.
|
2023-05-11T23:54:00Z
|
2024-11-05T18:00:00Z
|
2025-01-07T20:12:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16762
|
Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?
|
The last time a housing price drop of >= 15% in a year was in 2008 (18%). The collapse was due to the [subprime housing crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis).
<img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxMZad2WwAABv39?format=jpg&name=4096x4096" alt="Case Schiller Drop in 2008" />
Home prices increased by [double digits](https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/articles/when-will-the-housing-market-crash#:~:text=Are%20we%20in%20a%20housing%20bubble%20right%20now%3F,housing%20bubble%20burst%20in%202023.) during the Covid pandemic years until mid 2022. Since then it has declined. While some economists [predict](https://www.yahoo.com/now/economist-predicted-2008-housing-crash-204218890.html#:~:text=Citing%20the%20large%20disparity%20between,fall%20another%2015%25%20in%202023.&text=Shepherdson%2C%20the%20founder%20and%20chief,crash%20of%202008%20in%202005.) a 15-20% "crash" into early next year, many others do not agree but see [smaller decreases](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-20/economist-who-foresaw-housing-crunch-sees-home-prices-dropping#xj4y7vzkg) in value.
Resolution Criteria: For the purposes of this question, a "crash" is defined as drop of greater than or equal to 15% in the [national Case–Shiller home price index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case%E2%80%93Shiller_index).
The question will resolve **Yes** if the [national version of this index](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsa-index/#overview) is below 249.20 for any month in 2023, which would be a more than 15% drop relative to the February 2023 value of 293.17.
|
2023-05-31T22:57:00Z
|
2023-12-31T17:00:00Z
|
2024-04-04T23:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16743
|
Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?
|
On February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's initial plan seemed to involve [rapidly taking the capital](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)), deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after this plan was unsuccessful, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the "[Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group)," a Russian paramilitary force.
By fall, Bakhmut was a central focus of the war, with fighting in [trench warfare conditions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-warns-of-new-missile-attacks-russia-may-be-preparing-to-leave-zaporizhzhia-plant-nuclear-chief-says?page=with:block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6#block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6) and [heavy casualties](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-estimates-50-100-russian-troops-are-killed-in-bakhmut-sector-daily/).
On December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news). On January 16, Russian forces [secured control of Soledar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Soledar) and began encircling Bakhmut.
After [months of fighting](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/3/9/23631178/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-war-wagner) Russia made [incremental gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut) in Bakhmut, with the city administrative building [allegedly](https://kyivindependent.com/presidents-office-head-urges-calmly-react-to-fakes-after-wagner-boss-claims-seizure-of-bakhmut-administration-building/) falling to Russian troops in April.
On May 5, the head of the Wagner Group [said that Wagner would withdraw from the battle](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/prigozhin-wagner-troops-withdraw-bakhmut-russia-military-ammo-video-rcna83015) because of lack of Russian support. The same day, Ukraine [accused Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65506993) of using phosphorus bombs in the battle.
Resolution Criteria: The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).
The question will resolve **Yes** if, when checked by Metaculus admins at 5pm ET on May 31, 2023, the map shows the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building—located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500—is under any of the following categories:
- Ukranian Control
- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives
- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukranian control of the location
The question will resolve **No** if the administrative building is assessed to be within any of the following categories:
- Assessed Russian Control
- Assessed Russian Advance
- Claimed Russian Control
- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building
The question will resolve **Ambiguous** if the administrative building is in the "Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare" category.
Forecasters can see the exact location of the administrative building by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for "Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500".
Fine Print: Credit to [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2621-will-the-location-of-the-administrative-services-building-in-bakhmut-ukraine-cease-to-be-under-ukrainian-control-before-26-january-2023-according-to-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war) for inspiring the resolution criteria.
|
2023-05-08T13:00:00Z
|
2023-05-31T21:00:00Z
|
2023-05-31T21:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
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