id
stringlengths 8
25
| question
stringlengths 13
209
| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
20
| close_date
stringlengths 19
27
| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
20
| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
meta-22547
|
Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?
|
When it comes to separatism and Moldova, most will likely recall Transnistria, which is controlled by separatists and elements of the Russian Federation armed forces since the 1990s.
However, another autonomous region of Moldova, [Gagauzia](https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2022/walking-the-tightrope-towards-the-eu/4-gagauzia-the-restless-region-in-the-south/), is currently undergoing major "temptation" from Russia. The region, inhabited by over 120,000 Gagauzes, who are an Orthodox, mostly Russian speaking Moldovan minority, is newly connected to the Mir banking system, Russian [propaganda](https://dfrlab.org/2024/03/19/kremlin-media-blitz-gagauzia/) is widely spreading (most TV channels are Russian), and control of the [Chisinau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chi%C8%99in%C4%83u) government is openly challenged.
The most important figure in this new development is Evghenia Guțul, a young pro-Russian politician, who was [elected](https://www.rferl.org/a/gutul-gagauzia-moldova-leader-shor-party/32412419.html) a governor of the region in the last year's elections, which brought a lot of controversy due to allegations of corruption and the fact that Guțul ran on a ticket of a banned Pro-Russian party (connected to the Russian oligarch Ilan Shor).
Guțul visited Russia twice in the last several weeks. The most recent [visit](https://balkaninsight.com/2024/04/10/moldovas-restive-gagauzia-region-mulls-using-russian-payment-cards/) occurred on the 8th of April, and before that on the 6th of March, during which she [met](https://balkaninsight.com/2024/03/07/pro-moscow-governor-of-moldovas-gagauzia-seeks-putins-help/) with Russian President Vladimir Putin (edit May 6, 2024: Guțul also appears to have been in Moscow when this question was launched, with a [meeting in Moscow on April 22](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-brings-criminal-case-against-pro-russian-gagauzia-leader-court-2024-04-24/) and on [April 24](https://twitter.com/EvgheniaGutul/status/1783236723297685785)).
In the aftermath of both visits Russia promised to "protect" Gagauzia and also to distribute monthly [payments](https://cepa.org/article/the-kremlin-decides-to-buy-a-population/) to Gagauzian civil servants and senior citizens (together accounting for approximately 25,000 people).
More Guțul visits in Russia might signal rapid development in this region, which could mean further deterioration of the relationship between Gagauzia and Moldovan government.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 24, 2024, and before June 1, 2024, credible sources report that Evghenia Guțul has traveled to Russian territory within that period.
Fine Print: For the purpose of the question, Crimea and the Russia-controlled parts of Ukraine are considered to be Russian Federation territory.
|
2024-04-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-05-31T21:59:00Z
|
2024-05-09T06:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22541
|
Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?
|
[Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) is a platform for benchmarking large language models (LLMs) through anonymous, randomized conversations with human raters. The models are then ranked on a public leaderboard based on their "Arena Elo" scores.
As large language models gain more impressive capabilities, it is an open question whether proprietary or non-proprietary models will ultimately succeed.
While companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have kept their models proprietary, Meta has made its models non-proprietary.
Recently, the non-proprietary LLaMA 3 model has been [released](https://ai.meta.com/blog/meta-llama-3/), with its 70B version achieving a ranking above all models of a comparable size as of April 24th.
The 400B+ version of LLaMA 3 is still in training, and according to Meta has benchmarks that rival the top models currently released.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if, at any point during 2024, an LLM that is listed as having any non-proprietary license is listed as the highest Arena Elo model on the [chat.lmsys.org](https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard) leaderboard.
If no non-proprietary model has reached the top rank by 2025, this question will resolve **No.**
Fine Print: If Chatbot Arena shuts down or is unavailable for a consecutive >1 month period a clear successor may be used, if this is required but there is no clear successor then this question will be **annulled.**
If Chatbot Arena changes its name or URL that will not affect the resolution.
The models should be sorted by "Arena Elo" in the "Overall" category. If these names are changed the analogous categories should be used, if there are no analogous categories this question will be **annulled.**
To be clear, any license that is non-proprietary will be sufficient to resolve this. As of April 24, 2024, Chatbot Arena clearly lists licenses as either proprietary or not. if available, this will be used to determine whether a model is proprietary if there is reasonable dispute.
|
2024-04-27T14:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T01:00:00Z
|
2025-01-17T00:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22534
|
Will the US Senate pass a bill that intends to ban or force the sale of TikTok before May 1, 2024?
|
There has been a [lengthy debate](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/09/what-happened-to-the-tiktok-ban-00120434) around TikTok and the potential security risk from the app due to its ownership by ByteDance, a company [incorporated in the Cayman Islands and based in China](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/beijing-owns-stakes-bytedance-weibo-domestic-entities-records-show-2021-08-17/), and [close connections between Chinese businesses and the Chinese government](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/tech/tiktok-bytedance-china-ownership-intl-hnk/index.html).
The US House of Representatives [first passed a bill](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-house-vote-china-national-security-8fa7258fae1a4902d344c9d978d58a37) that would have the effect of banning TikTok if it was not divested from its Chinese parent company on March 13, 2024. However, this bill faced scrutiny in the Senate, where it was [sent to committee](https://apnews.com/article/senate-tiktok-ban-lobbying-congress-china-a340cf30b05343816380793af1c5d186). More recently, the House incorporated another TikTok ban into ([HR 8308](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/8038/text)), a bill which includes funds for Israel and Ukraine and sanctions against Russia and Iran. This bill, which passed on April 20th, incorporates revised text to [improve its prospects in the Senate and in the courts](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/20/tiktok-bill-passed-explainer-00153472).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 1, 2024, credible sources report that the US Senate has passed a bill that would have the effect of prohibiting TikTok from being distributed within the United States under its current operating and ownership structure.
Fine Print: * "Current operating and ownership structure" means the structure in place as of April 22, 2024.
* There is no requirement on when the prohibition becomes effective, so long as the Senate passes a bill that would satisfy these criteria on some future date.
* A bill that includes exemptions to the prohibition of TikTok if certain criteria are met would still resolve the question as **Yes**, so long as the prohibition would apply under TikTok's current operating and ownership structure.
* Potential legal challenges are immaterial, only the passage of such a bill is required for this question to resolve as **Yes**.
* If it is unclear from media reporting whether these criteria have been met Metaculus may assess the text of the bill itself and make a determination from the text of the bill. If, in the judgment of Metaculus, it is unclear from the text of the bill whether these criteria have been met the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-04-23T15:00:00Z
|
2024-04-30T22:00:00Z
|
2024-04-24T01:43:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22532
|
Will a limited access channel to the Port of Baltimore be opened at the site of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse before May 1, 2024?
|
The Francis Scott Key Bridge, a major bridge over the Patapsco River, which flows into the Chesapeake Bay, [collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_collapse) on March 26, 2024. The collapse resulted in the [closure of the Port of Baltimore](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/26/business/baltimore-port-autos-cruises/index.html), which the [US Bureau of Transportation Statistics describes](https://www.bts.gov/current-transportation-statistics/information-about-port-baltimore) as follows:
>The Port of Baltimore is among the top 20 ports in the United States by tonnage and number of containers handled, is 10th largest port for dry bulk, and is a major hub for the import and export of motorized vehicles.
In response to the collapse authorities have established a Unified Command composed of the US Coast Guard, the US Army Corps of Engineers, Maryland officials, and Witt O'Brien's, an emergency management firm. The Unified Command is working to clear the river of debris and establish shipping lanes that can access the port. To date [three channels have been established](https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2024/04/unified-command-opens-third-alternative-channel-in-baltimore/?gdpr=accept), though the maximum controlling depth of the available channels is only 20 feet. [WorldCargoNews.com, describes the latest channel to open and the depth requirements for shipping as follows](https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2024/04/unified-command-opens-third-alternative-channel-in-baltimore/?gdpr=accept):
>The channel has a controlling depth of 20 feet (6.09 meters), a 300-foot horizontal clearance, and a vertical clearance of 135 feet, which is slightly deeper than the first two alternative routes. This is expected to bring transit estimates to approximately 15% of pre-collapse commercial activity.
>
>That being said, ultra-large container ships typically require channels with a depth of at least 50 feet (15.24 meters) to accommodate their draft, and for 24,000 TEU ships, this further extends to channel depths of around 18 meters or more. As such, the arrival of large containerships to Baltimore is likely to wait for another month, as U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) aims to reopen the channel fully by the end of May.
The Unified Command [has announced](https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/limited-access-channel-to-move-cargo-traffic-at-port-of-baltimore-to-be-ready-by-end-of-april/) that they are aiming to open a [limited access channel](https://media.defense.gov/2024/Apr/15/2003439563/2000/2000/0/240415-A-A1420-1002.PNG), 35 feet deep and 280 feet wide, by the end of April. The Unified Command shares updates at its [Key Bridge Response page](https://www.keybridgeresponse2024.com/), and the Army Corps of Engineers also [maintains a page](https://www.nab.usace.army.mil/KeyBridgeResponse/) for sharing updates.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 1, 2024, credible sources report that a new channel has been opened at the location of the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge that has a channel depth of at least 30 feet and a width of at least 250 feet.
Fine Print: * For the purposes of this question, to be considered credible the sources must cite public statements made by officials overseeing the operations.
* If the specific dimensions of the channel are not reported the question will still resolve as **Yes ** if reports indicate that the "limited access channel" [previously described](https://www.nab.usace.army.mil/Media/News-Releases/Article/3731790/us-army-corps-of-engineers-develops-tentative-timeline-to-reopen-fort-mchenry-c/) has been successfully opened.
<a href="https://www.keybridgeresponse2024.com/">
<img src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/4d756b_37429c10344546b395c1e78553f33253~mv2.png/v1/crop/x_0,y_830,w_4500,h_4141/fill/w_918,h_845,fp_0.50_0.50,q_90,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_auto/FSKB_NavCapablity_graphic_NoAux-15APR2024.png" alt="Navigation Capability Graphic" />
</a>
|
2024-04-23T15:00:00Z
|
2024-04-30T22:00:00Z
|
2024-04-25T12:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22526
|
Will Mike Johnson be Speaker of the House on May 20, 2024?
|
Republicans in the House of Representatives began the 118th Congress with a majority of 222 to 212, however due to resignations the majority has shrunk to [216 seats to 213 Democratic seats](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress#Party_summary), the latest being Mike Gallagher's resignation, which [became effective on April 19](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/22/republican-house-majority-mike-gallagher). That means that if Democrats vote as a bloc, Republicans can only have one defection and still get a majority vote in the House.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson succeeded Kevin McCarthy after McCarthy was [ousted in October 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mccarthy-says-he-thinks-he-will-survive-leadership-challenge-us-house-2023-10-03/). However, with a slim majority and some contentious disagreements in his conference — especially regarding foreign aid to Ukraine — his hold on the speaker position may be tenuous. Currently only [one member](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/18/politics/mike-johnson-speakership-rules/index.html) is needed to submit a motion to vacate, forcing a vote on removing the speaker, though there has been [recent discussion regarding changing this rule](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/18/mike-johnson-gaetz-motion-to-vacate-ukraine).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Mike Johnson is Speaker of the US House of Representatives on May 20, 2024, at noon Eastern Time. If he is not Speaker of the House it resolves as **No**. Johnson need not continuously be Speaker until that time so long as he is Speaker at the designated time.
Fine Print: If Johnson announces he will resign as Speaker but the effective date is after the specified time, the question will still resolve as **Yes** so long as Johnson remains speaker as of the specified time.
|
2024-04-23T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-19T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-20T16:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22525
|
Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?
|
After the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in 2022, almost $300bn of Russian sovereign assets were frozen in Western countries. There is a heated debate about whether to seize those assets, and transfer funds to help Ukraine in the war, with arguments both [in favor](https://www.justsecurity.org/93004/past-time-to-liquidate-russian-assets/) and [against](https://ubn.news/the-head-of-the-ecb-criticizes-the-us-plans-regarding-the-frozen-assets-of-the-russian-federation/) the move.
Recently, US House of Representatives passed [a measure that authorizes (but not obliges) president to seize Russian sovereign assets](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/house-vote-billions-dollars-russian-government-money-sitting-us-banks-rcna148671).
It should be noted that only a minor fraction of these assets are frozen in the US, with majority stuck in [Belgian depositary Euroclear](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-frozen-russian-assets-generate-15-20-bln-until-2027-eu-official-says-2024-03-12/#:~:text=Some%2070%25%20of%20all%20Russian,central%20bank%20securities%20and%20cash.).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that any Russian sovereign assets currently frozen in the US or any EU country are seized on the government's order, before January 1, 2025.
Only sovereign assets count; assets belonging to individuals, private, or state-owned Russian companies do not count towards resolution of this question. Seizing profits generated by frozen assets, such as interest on bank accounts, also does not count.
If no credible sources report the seizure of Russian sovereign assets by the US or EU before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolution will be based solely on the act of seizure of these assets, regardless of any subsequent utilization, sale, or conversion of the assets.
|
2024-04-26T13:00:00Z
|
2024-12-28T09:00:00Z
|
2025-01-14T19:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22470
|
Will Joe Biden have a polling lead over Donald Trump on May 20, 2024?
|
The [2024 US Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) will take place on November 5, 2024. Joe Biden of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party have each [secured enough delegates](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/primary-elections-georgia-washington-mississippi-03-12-24/index.html) to clinch their party nominations.
Real Clear Politics (RCP) [tracks polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) for the presidential race and computes a polling average for Biden and Trump. As of April 19, 2024, Trump is up 0.4 percentage points, having narrowed from a 2.0 percentage point polling lead for Trump on March 1, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [RealClearPolitics polling average](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) as of May 20, 2024, at 2 PM ET shows Biden with a lead over Trump.
Fine Print: * The figure used will be that shown in the "Spread" column in the "RCP Average" row under the "Polling Data" heading. If this information is moved or rearranged Metaculus will use the equivalent figure in the revised format to resolve the question.
* A lead will be considered any positive value shown for Biden. "Tie" or any other value that indicates Biden's polling average is equal to or below Trumps will result in the question resolving as **No**.
* If the website is down or otherwise inaccessible to Metaculus at the scheduled time the question will resolve according to the polling average shown when first accessed by Metaculus after 2 PM ET and before May 21 ET. If the website remains inaccessible to Metaculus for the duration of that period the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-04-23T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-19T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-20T18:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22465
|
Will President Biden make an international trip between April 24 and May 20, 2024?
|
United States President Joe Biden has made [16 international trips](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_presidential_trips_made_by_Joe_Biden) during his presidency. He has yet to make an international trip in 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that U.S. President Joe Biden has traveled outside of the United States at any point between April 24, 2024 and May 20, 2024, inclusive (in Eastern Time).
Fine Print: - For the purposes of this question, "United States" means, collectively, the 50 states, Washington D.C., the five [inhabited territories](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States#Inhabited_territories) and nine [uninhabited territories](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States#Uninhabited_territories).
- Only reports available before 9 am ET on May 21, 2024 will be considered for resolution. If it is reported after 9 am ET on May 21st that President Biden secretly began a trip that started during the window, the question will not be re-resolved.
|
2024-04-23T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-20T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-21T14:26:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22459
|
Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on May 20, 2024 than the 2011-2020 average?
|
Antarctic sea ice is a vital component of the Earth's climate system, typically covering an area of more than 18 million square kilometers at its annual maximum extent.
During the summer in the southern hemisphere, sea ice is at a minimum. In February 2023, Antarctic sea ice levels hit [new record lows](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64649596), breaking the previous record set just a year earlier. Antarctic sea ice also recorded a record minimum in peak extent in September 2023, setting a [new record low for most of the year](https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-2023-was-an-exceptional-year-for-antarctic-sea-ice/).
Typically, sea ice levels begin to recover in late February or early March.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the data reported in [the Antarctic version of this graph](https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) from the National Snow & Ice Data Center, the area of Antarctic sea ice extent is greater on May 20, 2024 than the average from 2011-2020 for that date (10.511 million square kilometers as of April 19, 2024). The question will resolve when accessed by Metaculus on May 21, 2024.
Fine Print: * As of April 19, 2024, the resolution source shows 10.511 million square kilometers for the May 20 average 2011-2020, however this figure could see revisions. The question will resolve according to the areas shown at the resolution source when accessed by Metaculus to resolve the question.
* Note that the link defaults to the Arctic sea ice chart. The toggle must be clicked to see Antarctic sea ice.
* The 2011-2020 Average can be viewed as a trendline by selecting it on the legend.
|
2024-04-23T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-19T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-21T14:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22415
|
Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?
|
The commencement of Donald Trump's [trial in the so-called "hush money" case](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4589001-5-things-to-know-ahead-of-trumps-hush-money-trial/) marks a historic moment as he becomes the first former U.S. president to face criminal charges in court. The trial centers around allegations that Trump, during the 2016 presidential campaign, orchestrated a hush money payment to an adult film actress to prevent damaging stories from surfacing. This payment, and similar transactions, are claimed by the Manhattan district attorney to have been unlawfully logged as legal expenses by Trump’s company.
The trial is scheduled to commence on April 15th, 2024 and is expected to last approximately six weeks.
*This question is part of the Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup, however, if the trial has not concluded when the tournament ends on July 8, 2024, it will not be scored in the Quarterly Cup. It will still count as part of the annual leaderboard.*
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report Donald Trump has testified, whether in person or remotely, at the [trial](https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/webcrim_attorney/Detail?which=case&docketNumber=q23XFOwZRDQ1d4LrNRdw2clqCMt/CzUoG/kRII/7Nmg=&countyId=K4i18rFVPQh5HTQ/kUoO3Q==&docketId=3Y4iKU5oHM75AtDme2cPhw==&docketDseq=T/O1YN_PLUS_BG65HkOeqEnpAkw==&defendantName=TRUMP,+DONALD&court=New+York+Supreme+Criminal+Court&courtType=U&recordType=U&recordNum=) concerning the so-called "hush money" payments to Stormy Daniels.
|
2024-04-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-06-15T06:00:00Z
|
2024-05-21T14:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22403
|
Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?
|
In a significant escalation of regional tensions, [Iran launched a coordinated aerial attack targeting Israeli territory on April 13, 2024](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-tries-to-calibrate-response-against-israel-after-deadly-bombing-abb38b57). This action by Iran came as a direct retaliation for an [Israeli airstrike earlier in the month](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240#:~:text=An%20Israeli%20airstrike%20in%20a,at%20least%20five%20Iranian%20advisers.), which struck the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, which resulted in the deaths of seven Iranian officers, including three high-ranking commanders, intensifying Iran's resolve to respond.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Israel and occurring within Iran's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.
Fine Print: The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:
- Occur within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. Iran's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Iran's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered "within Iran" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered "within Iran."
- Israel must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Israel's armed forces or intelligence operatives.
- The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.
- The threshold of five fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Israel will meet this criterion.
|
2024-04-13T22:04:00Z
|
2024-05-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-05-01T18:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22394
|
Will an interest rate cut below current levels occur or increase in likelihood for June following the May 1, 2024 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?
|
The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) also serves as the Chair of the FOMC.
The primary responsibility of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in order to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. To achieve these goals, the FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers.
The next FOMC meeting will be [April 30-May 1, 2024](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). The CME Group's [CME FedWatch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) calculates probabilities of rate cuts and hikes using 30-Day Federal Funds futures prices. Its methodology is described [here](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2023/understanding-the-cme-group-fedwatch-tool-methodology.html), and a video overview is available [here](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/videos/introduction-to-cme-fedwatch.html).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) either announces a decrease in the federal funds rate on May 1, 2024, **or** if following the FOMC's statement on May 1 the [CME FedWatch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) reports that the probability of a rate cut at the FOMC's June meeting has increased relative to the day prior.
Fine Print: * Specifically, the question will resolve as **Yes** if the following occurs when the FOMC makes its statement on May 1, 2024 following its meeting:
* If the FOMC announces a decrease in the target [federal funds rate](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) on May 1, 2024, this question will resolve as **Yes**.
* If the FOMC does **not** announce a decrease in the target [federal funds rate](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) on May 1, 2024, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the "TARGET RATE PROBABILITIES FOR 12 JUN 2024 FED MEETING" reported by the [CME FedWatch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html), when checked at 4:30pm ET on May 1, 2024, shows a higher cumulative probability for rate cuts relative to the current target rate in the "Now" column when compared to the "1 Day (30 April 2024)" column.
* If none of the above conditions occur, this question will resolve as **No**.
* The relevant information in the CME FedWatch Tool can be found by selecting "Current" under "Target Rate" on the left side and selecting "12 Jun24" in the top window.
* If a decrease in the target federal funds rate is announced before the April 30-May 1 meeting this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-04-16T15:00:00Z
|
2024-04-30T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-01T20:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22391
|
Will the United Nations Security Council pass a resolution related to the Gaza War between April 23 and May 20, 2024?
|
The [United Nations (UN) Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council) is a UN body responsible for matters of [international peace and security](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/). The [council's membership](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/current-members) consists of five permanent members made up of China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as 10 non-permanent members. [Three-fifths of the members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council#Veto_power) must vote in favor for a resolution for it to pass, though the five permanent members have veto power, and any one permanent member can veto a resolution.
In early March 2024 the United States used its veto power to [block a resolution calling for a ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) in the [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war). The US had also blocked previous resolutions calling for a ceasefire, including [one in December 2023](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-un-resolution-ceasefire-humanitarian-6d3bfd31d6c25168e828274d96b85cf8). However, on March 25 the US abstained on a ceasefire resolution, [allowing it to pass](https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15641.doc.htm). This change was [characterized by some media sources](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/25/1240669997/united-nations-security-council-cease-fire-resolution-gaza-israel-war) as stemming from US frustrations with Israel's strategy and the [risk it poses to civilians](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna144870/rcrd37624?canonicalCard=true).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between April 23 and May 20, 2024 (inclusive), the United Nations Security Council passes a resolution related to the Israel-Gaza conflict.
The UN Security Council [website](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/resolutions-adopted-security-council-2024), as well as other credible sources, will be considered for the resolution of this question.
Fine Print: In the event of a dispute as to whether a passed resolution is "related to the Israel-Gaza conflict," such a dispute shall resolve at the discretion of Metaculus admins.
|
2024-04-16T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-19T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-21T14:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22390
|
Will Donald Trump file a new writ petition or application for stay with the US Supreme Court between April 16 and May 19, 2024?
|
The unprecedented legal and constitutional questions raised in Donald Trump's various cases have resulted in frequent appeals to the US Supreme Court to challenge or seek relief from lower court decisions. These actions are part of the broader legal and political narrative surrounding Trump's legal disputes, including inquiries into his business dealings, the handling of classified information, and allegations of electoral interference.
This question pertains to two of the most common filings in supreme court cases:
**Writ Petition:**
A writ petition is a formal request to a higher court to review a lower court's decision. One common type of writ is a writ of certiorari, which the Supreme Court uses to decide most of the cases it hears. The petitioner asks the Supreme Court to consider the legal or constitutional issues raised by the case's facts. The issuance of a writ indicates the higher court's agreement to hear the case, although it does not predetermine the case's outcome.
**Application for Stay:**
An application for stay is a request to temporarily halt the enforcement of a lower court's decision while the appeal process is ongoing. It is essentially a request for the preservation of the status quo to prevent irreparable harm that could result from implementing the lower court's decision if it were eventually overturned on appeal. In the context of the Supreme Court, a party might file an application for stay pending the Court's decision on whether to take up the case (grant certiorari) or while an appeal is being considered.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Donald Trump has, between April 16 and May 19, 2024 (inclusive), filed as (i) "applicant" on an application for a stay and/or as (ii) "petitioner" on petition for a writ of certiorari to the United States Supreme Court.
|
2024-04-16T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-19T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-20T16:08:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22385
|
Will SpaceX's fourth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers before May 20, 2024?
|
[SpaceX's first integrated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_Integrated_Flight_Test) took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad [suffered significant damage](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starship-explosion-spread-particulate-matter-for-miles.html) and the launch produced significant debris and particulate matter that led to concerns of the potential impact on the surrounding environment and community.
Following a mishap investigation, a safety review, and an environmental review by the [Federal Aviation Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aviation_Administration) (FAA), the second integrated flight took place on [November 18, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_integrated_flight_test_2). The third integrated flight test [took place on March 14, 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20916/date-of-3rd-starship-integrated-flight-test/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 20, 2024, the fourth Starship integrated flight test occurs and Starship reaches an altitude of at least 200 kilometers (approximately 124 miles) intact.
Fine Print: * An integrated flight test requires the Starship spacecraft to be stacked on top of the [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) with both launched together.
* The question will resolve according to information published by SpaceX. In the event the altitude achieved is near 200 km but it is not clear whether 200 km was reached, Metaculus may wait for confirmation of the final altitude achieved from SpaceX or other credible sources to resolve the question. If on May 21 Metaculus determines that there is not sufficient evidence available to definitely say whether Starship reached an altitude of 200 km the question will be **annulled**. A statement from SpaceX saying that Starship reached an altitude of "approximately 200 kilometers" or "~200 kilometers" or similar will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**, so long as the estimated altitude is 200 kilometers or more.
|
2024-04-16T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-20T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-20T16:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22383
|
Will the Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes domestic opening box office set a new franchise record?
|
The *[Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_the_Planet_of_the_Apes)* is an upcoming movie scheduled to be released on May 10, 2024. The movie will be the fourth installment of the [rebooted *Planet of the Apes* series](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_of_the_Apes#Reboot_film_series). The original source material was a 1963 French novel and a 1968 *Planet of the Apes* film. There has been nearly a seven year gap since the 2017 release of the third installment in the rebooted film series.
The most successful of the rebooted series in terms of the opening weekend domestic box office was the second in the series, *Dawn of the Planet of the Apes*, exceeding the opening of [all other *Planet of the Apes* movies](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchise/fr2890370821/?sort=releaseDate&ref_=bo_fr__resort#table), including the original movie (though only without adjusting for inflation).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the domestic box office weekend opening of the *Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes* movie sets a new franchise record, exceeding the [$72,611,427 opening of *Dawn of the Planet of the Apes*](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1649182209/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs). Resolution will be determined according to the figure reported by [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11389872/?ref_=bo_se_r_1).
Fine Print: * If the release of the movie is delayed from its scheduled May 10 date, or if Box Office Mojo does not publish the required data before May 21, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.
* Note that box office figures are reported without adjustments for inflation.
* The question will assess whether the box office opening exceeds $72,611,427, regardless of whether Box Office Mojo updates the figure for *Dawn of the Planet of the Apes*.
|
2024-04-16T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-09T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-14T02:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22382
|
Will Joe Biden issue his 11th veto before May 17, 2024?
|
On March 20, 2023, Joe Biden [issued his first veto](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/03/20/message-to-the-house-of-representatives-presidents-veto-of-h-j-res-30/), returning [House Joint Resolution 30](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/118/hjres30) (H. J. Res. 30) to the House of Representatives.
Since then, as of March 27, 2024, Biden has issued nine more vetoes for a total of 10. A full tally of presidential vetoes is [available at the website of the US Senate](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 17, 2024, Joe Biden issues an additional veto (his 11th). A statement to the effect that President Biden is withholding his approval (otherwise known as a [pocket veto](https://www.senate.gov/about/glossary.htm#pocket_veto)) will also be sufficient for the question to resolve.
|
2024-04-16T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-16T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-03T17:27:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22308
|
Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire deal before May 16, 2024?
|
Since the beginning of the [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#), [one temporary ceasefire has been reached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_ceasefire). The ceasefire began on November 24, 2023, and was scheduled to last for four days, but was extended for two days and again for an additional day. During the ceasefire a number of Israeli hostages held by Hamas were exchanged for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
In 2024 the two sides have held negotiations for another ceasefire, but have [so far been unable to reach an agreement](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-hamas-rejects-latest-cease-fire-proposal-israel-108495723).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 16, 2024, it is officially reported that Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement for a ceasefire.
Fine Print: * Temporary ceasefires count, as do humanitarian pauses, so long as they extend to the entire conflict. For example, a humanitarian pause in certain regions or corridors would not be sufficient.
* The ceasefire does not actually need to begin, so long as there are credible reports that a ceasefire agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas.
* For the purposes of this question, official reporting will be public confirmation by both Israel and Hamas. Anonymous or unsourced reports will not be sufficient. Reports of an informal or "[tentative agreement](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-hamas-reach-tentative-deal-pause-conflict-free-dozens-hostages-wapo-2023-11-19/)" will not be sufficient, the agreement must be confirmed.
* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of initial reporting is in doubt, using reports published before May 16, 2024. If the available reporting published before May 16 remains of dubious credibility, is conflicting, or is unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.
|
2024-04-16T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-15T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-16T15:25:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22304
|
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?
|
On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.
[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:
>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.
CDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as "None" and a low current public health risk.
In its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:
>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 11, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.
Fine Print: * Reports that express degrees of confidence in the spread of human-to-human transmission will also count if they refer to a specific case. For example, if CDC reports that a specific infection of H5N1 in an individual was likely spread from another human this question will resolve as **Yes**.
* An assessment that human-to-human spread is possible, plausible, or other language that does not clearly indicate that human-to-human transmission more likely than not occurred in at least one specific case will not be sufficient.
* For the purposes of this question, all descendant lineages of H5N1 will count as H5N1.
|
2024-04-12T20:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-08T19:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22302
|
Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $950 on any single day before May 21, 2024?
|
[Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-earnings-after-parabolic-stock-rally.html). The stock is up [approximately 79% year-to-date as of April 15, 2024](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjVr6qM8LyEAxWY5MkDHRwNC4UQ3ecFegQIahAf&window=YTD).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 16, 2024, and before May 21, 2024, the price of NVIDIA stock (NVDA), in US dollars, at market close is greater than $950. Resolution will be determined according to the close value shown by [Yahoo finance historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history).
Fine Print: * If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment the resolution value will be adjusted to account for the split.
|
2024-04-16T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-20T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-20T20:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22301
|
Will a version of Claude be the top model on chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on May 16, 2024?
|
Chatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/). It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if, at noon ET on May 16, 2024, a version of Claude is the top model on the [chat.lmsys.org](https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard) leaderboard, when sorted by Arena ELO rating.
The question will resolve as **No** if any other model version is listed as the top model.
Fine Print: * If another model is tied with a Claude model for the top position, with the same ELO, the question will resolve as **No**.
* The numerical "Rank" column will be ignored for the purposes of determining resolution of this question. Only the ELO rating matters. A tie will be considered to be another model having an identical arena ELO rating to Claude.
|
2024-04-16T15:00:00Z
|
2024-05-15T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-16T16:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22299
|
Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?
|
The [Transparent Replications Project](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in Nature or Science involving online participants.
## Context: How often have social science studies tended to replicate in the past?
In [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.)
In [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in Nature or Science (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.
The replication described here was run as part of the Transparent Replications project, which has not run enough replications yet for us to give any base replication rates. Having said that, if you’re interested in reading more about the project, you can read more [here](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/about/). And [here is where you can find write-ups for the eight previous replications we’ve completed](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replications/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the main study result is statistically significant in our replication (at significance level of p < 0.05, with the effect in the same direction as the original results). Otherwise, it will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: ## Original Study Results
In Study 2 of the original [research paper](https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2202700119), participants who were “endowed” with a bundle of 3 facts to learn (as shown in the Study Summary) were more likely to choose to learn that 3-fact bundle instead of learning a 4-fact bundle presented as an alternative option; in contrast, participants who *weren’t* “endowed” with either bundle and who could freely choose between them were more likely to choose to learn the 4-fact bundle.
## Study Summary
<img src="https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Information_Endownment_Effect_Diagram.jpeg" alt="Information Endowment Effect Diagram" />
*[Click here for a higher resolution version of the study image](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ser7bvtfpazRnkBKBjUHJEm98e1DRbKj/view?usp=sharing)*
The original study randomized participants into one of two conditions: endowed and nonendowed. In the endowed condition, participants were told that they were on course to learn a specific bundle of three facts and were then offered the option to learn a separate bundle of four facts instead. In the nonendowed condition, participants were simply offered a choice between learning a bundle of three or a separate bundle of four facts, with the bundles shown in randomized order.
Results of a chi-square goodness-of-fit test indicated that participants in the endowed condition were more likely to express a preference for learning three (versus four) facts than participants in the nonendowed condition. This supported the original researchers’ hypothesis that individuals exhibit the endowment effect for non-instrumental information.
In our study, we followed the same procedure, except that we distinguished between the half of the nonendowed condition where the 3-fact bundle was displayed on top and the half where the 4-fact bundle was displayed on top (these were represented by Conditions 2 and 3 respectively in the diagram above), so that we could conduct an additional analysis in case order effects had been contributing to the original study results (explained below). For the purposes of assessing whether the original study replicated in our dataset, however, Conditions 2 and 3 were pooled into one combined nonendowed condition. This means that our pooled Conditions 2 and 3 are together equivalent to (a larger version of) the original study’s nonendowed condition. (For details, see ***The Details*** section.)
None of the facts presented were of objectively greater utility or interest than any of the others. Facts related to, for example, the behavior of a particular animal, or the fact that the unicorn is the national animal of a country. Furthermore, each time we ran the experiment, we randomized which facts appeared in which order across both bundles. The subjective utility of a given fact would not be expected to affect experimental results due to this randomization process.
The original study included 146 adult participants from Prolific. Our replication included 631 adult participants (not counting exclusions) from MTurk via Positly.com.
### The Details
In the original experiment, two variables had varied across conditions - both endowment *and* the order of presentation of the two bundles had varied. Option order had been randomized within the endowed condition such that a 3-fact bundle was shown on top half the time while a 4-fact bundle was shown on top the other half of the time within that condition. On the other hand, option order was not randomized in the endowed condition: the 3-fact bundle was always shown on top within that condition. To control for ordering effects, we increased sample size to 1.5 times our original planned size and split the nonendowed condition (now double the size it would otherwise have been) into two separate conditions: Conditions 2 and 3. Our participants were randomized into one of three conditions, as described below:
* Condition 1: Endowed - Participants were told that they were on course to learn a specific bundle of three facts and were then offered the option to learn four different facts instead.
* Condition 2: Nonendowed with 3-fact bundle displayed on top - Participants were offered a choice between learning three facts or four facts, with the bundle of 3 facts appearing as the top option.
* Condition 3: Nonendowed with 4-fact bundle displayed on top - Participants were offered a choice between learning three facts or four facts, with the bundle of 4 facts appearing as the top option
### Analysis
To evaluate the replicability of the original study, we ran a chi-square goodness-of-fit test to evaluate differences in preference for learning three facts between participants in the endowed versus the pooled nonendowed conditions. As stated in our pre-registration, our policy was to consider the study to have replicated if this test yielded a statistically significant result, with the difference in the same direction as the original finding (i.e., with a higher proportion of participants selecting the 3-fact bundle in the endowed compared to the pooled nonendowed conditions).
|
2024-04-12T20:00:00Z
|
2024-04-26T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-06T14:50:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22298
|
Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?
|
The [Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023–present)#27_October) commenced on October 27, 2023 in response to a [Hamas-led attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand killed, and hundreds kidnapped.
The invasion was initially limited to Northern Gaza, but the plans were gradually expanded further South. Recently, Israel has [stated its intentions to expand its invasion to the Southern city of Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), which borders Egypt. These expansion plans, like prior ones, have seen widespread condemnation from both pro and anti-Israeli nations. This condemnation is primarily based on the alarming number of deaths and casualties stemming from the ground invasion; the growing humanitarian crisis, which has become more acute as the Israeli invasion has expanded; and the vast number of Palestinian refugees which are reportedly taking refuge in the city having fled from Northern Gaza.
Israel has already [commenced airstrikes and covert raids in Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), but a full-scale ground invasion has yet to commence.
Amongst the nations who have condemned the plans are the US - Israel's closest ally - and Egypt - Gaza's Southern neighbour which [has threatened](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/11/egypt-threatens-to-suspend-key-peace-treaty-if-israel-pushes-into-rafah-on-its-border-officials-say.html) to break it's 45 year old peace treaty with Israel if the ground invasion plans commence in Rafah.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued to state that an invasion is imminent and that Israel has a specific date set, though on April 9 it [was reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/09/israel-defense-gallant-deny-rafah-invasion-date) that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said there is no date set.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) (ISW) reports Israeli military operations on its map at any of six locations surrounding Rafah (the specific locations are shown in the map embedded below) before June 1, 2024.
<iframe src="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1VCJMA9AH4k8G6v33Yr6z254_umiNe4Q&ehbc=2E312F" width="640" height="480"}}>
</iframe>
Fine Print: * Israeli military operations will be considered to be both of the following, or any similar entries added to the map:
* "Reported Israeli clearing operations"
* "Claimed furthest Israeli advances"
* If Metaculus has reason to believe that the ISW map is no longer being updated or maintained the question will be **annulled**.
* The coordinates of the six locations are as follows:
1. 31°18'57.5"N 34°14'14.0"E (Taiba Mosque)
2. 31°18'44.8"N 34°15'04.9"E (Helmi Saqr Sultan Mosque)
3. 31°18'18.2"N 34°15'40.0"E
4. 31°17'31.8"N 34°16'21.0"E
5. 31°16'24.3"N 34°16'23.2"E
6. 31°15'41.0"N 34°15'29.8"E
|
2024-04-11T20:00:00Z
|
2024-05-31T22:00:31.900000Z
|
2024-05-13T18:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22245
|
Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?
|
In US presidential elections, Nebraska is unusual in that it does not automatically award all of its Electoral College votes to the state-wide winner. Instead, it awards two of its five electoral votes to the state-wide winner, and one vote to the winner of each of its three Congressional districts. Nebraska has used this method [since 1992.](https://www.270towin.com/content/split-electoral-votes-maine-and-nebraska/) The only other state that currently allocates its electoral votes in this manner is Maine.
While two of [Nebraska's Congressional districts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_congressional_districts?useskin=vector) are strongly Republican, its [2nd district](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_2nd_congressional_district?useskin=vector), concentrated around Omaha and its suburbs, is highly competitive, and [in 2023](https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2023-partisan-voting-index/118-district-map-and-list) had a [Cook Partisan Voting Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index?useskin=vector) of EVEN. In the [2022 midterms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Nebraska?useskin=vector), Republican Don Bacon won the district by less than three points.
In the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector#Results_by_state), Donald Trump won NE-02 by 2.24 points; but in [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector#Results_by_state), the district flipped, and Joe Biden won by 6.5 points.
In certain scenarios, Nebraska's 2nd district could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
For example, if incumbent president Joe Biden were to retain the three Rust Belt battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, but lose the three Sun Belt battleground states of Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, and the rest of the electoral map were to remain unchanged from 2020, without Nebraska's 2nd district, Biden would have 269 electoral votes, one shy of the 270 needed to win an Electoral College majority. Winning NE-02 again would secure victory in this scenario; but failing to win it would result in a [contingent election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election?useskin=vector)
As of April 2024, there are [efforts underway](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/07/trump-nebraska-electoral-college/73229967007/) to have Nebraska revert to winner-take-all electoral vote allocation. Former president and Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump has called on the state to revert to WTA allocation, and Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen has [urged the state legislature](https://twitter.com/TeamPillen/status/1777882507544793455) to pass a bill to that effect in an as-yet uncalled special legislative session:
>I am steadfast in my commitment to get winner-take-all over the finish line, thereby honoring our constitutional founding, unifying our state and ending the three-decades-old mistake of allocating Nebraska's electoral votes differently than all but one other state.
>Although it is now clear that WTA cannot pass during the regular legislative session, I look forward to partnering with legislative leaders to moving it forward in a special session, when there is sufficient support in the Legislature to pass it.
>I will sign WTA into law the moment the Legislature gets it to my desk.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if in the 2024 United States presidential election, according to legislation, an official statement from election officials, or [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media reports, the state of Nebraska allocates its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis as a matter of law, regardless of the performance of each candidate in each of its Congressional districts.
The question resolves as **No** if this does not occur.
Fine Print: Whether Nebraska's electors actually cast their votes as instructed, i.e., whether they are faithful or faithless, is immaterial to the resolution of this question. This question concerns only whether Nebraska's electoral votes are, as a matter of law, allocated on a winner-take-all basis.
|
2024-04-16T11:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T12:00:00Z
|
2024-11-06T16:29:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22168
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?
|
[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
As of April 7 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.
Republican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.
Attorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 10.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $70 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate.
Given Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if on or before October 22, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his campaign officially announces that he has suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended his 2024 campaign for the office of President of the United States.
Fine Print: An announced suspension of campaigning that is intended or expected (according to either a candidate/campaign statement or credible media reports) to be temporary (e.g. in the case of a personal or general emergency, etc) shall not count; only a permanent 'suspension' that is tantamount to the termination of the campaign suffices.
However, if a suspension that is intended or expected to be temporary becomes (according to an official statement from Kennedy or his campaign) a permanent suspension without the campaign having been resumed, the date of Kennedy's campaign suspension should be taken to be the date the suspension initially began.
Any revival of a campaign after a permanent 'suspension' or termination of a campaign shall be immaterial to resolution of this question.
|
2024-04-12T11:00:00Z
|
2024-10-21T11:00:00Z
|
2024-08-23T19:18:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22161
|
Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?
|
On April 1, 2024, an Israeli airstrike [targeted the Iranian embassy](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240) in Damascus, Syria, resulting in significant casualties including the deaths of top Iranian commanders.
In the aftermath, the United States has increased its security posture in the region, anticipating a retaliatory strike by Iran against Israeli or American assets. Senior U.S. and Israeli officials [consider such an attack "inevitable."](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/politics/us-israel-iran-retaliation-strike/index.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.
Fine Print: The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:
1. Occur within the area demarcated as "Israel" on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's [internal waters and territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters) (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered "within Israel" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered "within Israel."
2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.
3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.
4. The threshold of five fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Iran will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.
|
2024-04-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-05-01T06:59:00Z
|
2024-05-01T17:53:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22149
|
Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024?
|
The [Powerball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powerball) is a US lottery operated by the [Multi-State Lottery Association](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-State_Lottery_Association). Drawings are held [every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday](https://ialottery.com/Pages/Games/DrawingTimes.aspx). The [last time the jackpot was won](https://www.powerball.net/winners) was on January 1, 2024, and since then the jackpot has grown to a value of approximately $1.3 billion, the [fourth largest](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/lottery/2024/04/05/powerball-drawing-lottery-jackpot/73214381007/) Powerball jackpot in history and the [eighth largest](https://www.npr.org/2024/04/04/1242720091/powerball-jackpot-no-winner) US lottery jackpot in history.
*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 5, 2024, and before April 15, 2024, credible sources report that there was at least one winning ticket drawn in the Powerball jackpot.
Fine Print: The winner must be for the "[Grand Prize](https://www.powerball.com/powerball-prize-chart)".
|
2024-04-05T22:17:00Z
|
2024-04-13T20:00:00Z
|
2024-04-07T06:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22148
|
Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament?
|
During the 2023-2024 season, Iowa senior Caitlin Clark became the [top scorer in college basketball history](https://bigten.org/news/2024/3/3/womens-basketball-caitlin-clark-becomes-the-ncaas-all-time-leading-scorer.aspx#:~:text=%E2%80%93%20Iowa%20senior%20Caitlin%20Clark%20scored,left%20in%20the%20second%20quarter.).
The award for Most Outstanding Player in the NCAA tournament is awarded following the conclusion of the championship game, based on a vote from media members. Typically the winning player is a member of the championship team, but not always. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_basketball_tournament_Most_Outstanding_Player):
> Ten men and one woman have won the award despite not winning the championship. The last man to do so was Akeem Olajuwon in 1983 and Dawn Staley was the only woman to do so when she won the award in 1991.
Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes [face UConn](https://www.ncaa.com/game/6284828) in the Final Four.
*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if [Caitlin Clark](https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4433403/caitlin-clark) is named the NCAA Division I women's tournament [Most Outstanding Player](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_basketball_tournament_Most_Outstanding_Player) at the conclusion of the [2024 championship game](https://www.ncaa.com/womens-di-championship?mml=1&cid=ncaa_mml_nav_women).
|
2024-04-05T20:25:00Z
|
2024-04-07T18:00:00Z
|
2024-04-07T21:28:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22146
|
Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?
|
US Republican Senator Mitt Romney has [ruled out](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/29/mitt-romney-vote-trump-biden/72787644007/) voting for the presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, but has to date [stopped short](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/11/mitt-romney-joe-biden-knocks-donald-trump/71876893007/) of explicitly endorsing an alternative. Will he change this, and endorse the Democratic nominee?
Resolution Criteria: This resolves positively if 3 high quality national or international news sources (e.g. Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, New York Times, Washington Post, or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)) report that Mitt Romney has publicly endorsed the Democratic nominee for President in 2024, prior to the election taking place.
Reports which describe Romney as "publicly endorsing" the Democratic nominee or similar should suffice, or reports which include quotes from Romney saying unambiguously that he intends to vote for the Democratic nominee.
Reports that he has told people privately that he will vote for the Democratic nominee should not count for the purpose of this question.
|
2024-04-11T13:00:00Z
|
2024-10-31T12:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T12:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22142
|
Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024?
|
After two slow decades at the beginning of the 21st century, the rate of missions to the Moon [has significantly accelerated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#21st_century_uncrewed_soft_landings_and_attempts). Two missions have already landed on the Moon in 2024 and many more are planned.
One of them was Intuitive Machines' Nova-C lander, which was the first made by a commercial company to land on the Moon, during the IM-1 mission. An obstacle was however encountered and the satellite stumbled on its side. A new mission is planned for this year with the same lander class that plans to deliver NASA payloads.
Among the payloads are a [mass spectrometer, a rover and a drill](https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/the-im-2-moon-mission-will-carry-a-blend-of-science-and-art/) that will search the lunar South Pole for water ice.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, an Intuitive Machines lander has perfectly landed and the payload is delivered in a fully working state on the Moon. Otherwise resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: For the purpose of this question, a perfect landing will be defined as one which results in the lander remaining intact, in its intended position, able to communicate with the Earth, and which does not prevent its payload from being able to carry out its intended mission.
The lander must land before January 1, 2025, 00:00 UTC occurs on Earth. Resolution will be determined based on information published before January 30, 2025.
Every one of the payloads must be able to work as intended for at least 24 hours. A payload that would not fulfill this previous criteria will not be considered if at least another party than Intuitive Machines takes responsibility for this failure. If Intuitive Machines recognizes any responsibility in this failure, the landing will not count for positive resolution.
|
2024-05-18T11:00:00Z
|
2024-12-30T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T23:43:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22140
|
Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?
|
The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States.
The election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College) (electors) who then cast votes for the President and Vice President.
The electors [are scheduled to meet](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates) on December 17, 2024. If no majority is reached the President will be determined by Congress.
Since the inception of the United States, only [2 elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_Electoral_College_margin) have resulted in no electoral college majority.
See also:
- The Hill: [What if no candidate wins 270 electoral votes?](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4502438-what-if-no-candidate-wins-270-electoral-votes/)
- 270ToWin: [Electoral College Ties](https://www.270towin.com/content/electoral-college-ties/)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if any single candidate receives an absolute majority of the Electoral College votes cast in the 2024 United States presidential election. If no one receives an absolute majority of Electoral College votes cast, this question will resolve **No**.
This question will resolve on the date the electors cast their votes.
Fine Print: Specifically, according to the rules as of April 2024, if any candidate receives 270 Electoral College votes or greater, not including a tie where two candidates receive 269 votes, this question will resolve yes.
Faithless electors will be counted as they actually vote, not based on their states results.
If the number of votes in the Electoral College changes before they cast their votes, this question will still resolve based on an absolute majority, not 270.
If the 2024 United States presidential election is not held or if the electoral college does not cast their votes by February 1, 2025 this question will resolve as **ambiguous**.
If there is a dispute about who the electors are, or what their votes are this question will resolve based on how congress counts the votes, if congress does not count the votes by February 1, 2025 this question will resolve as **ambiguous**.
|
2024-04-10T12:00:00Z
|
2024-11-04T04:00:00Z
|
2025-01-07T20:19:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-22050
|
Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024?
|
[Cherry blossoms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_blossom) are often considered the unofficial national flower of Japan, and the spring blooming of the cherry blossoms is a [significant tourist attraction](https://www.japan.travel/en/au/experience/cherry-blossoms/). [According to Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/date-of-the-peak-cherry-tree-blossom-in-kyoto), the peak blooming period of the cherry blossoms in Kyoto has been shifting earlier in recent years as climate change produces warmer spring temperatures.
The [Japan Meteorological Corporation](https://n-kishou.com/corp/english/company/) (JMC) publishes cherry blossom forecasts as well as a "[Flowering Meter](https://n-kishou.com/corp/news-contents/sakura/?lang=en#section03)", tracking the progress of the cherry blossoms toward reaching full bloom in a number of Japanese cities.
*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 5, 2024, Japan Meteorological Corporation (JMC) reports that cherry blossoms have reached 100% full bloom in Tokyo. Resolution will be determined according to whether JMC's "[Flowering Meter](https://n-kishou.com/corp/news-contents/sakura/?lang=en#section03)" shows that Tokyo has reached 100% full bloom in its most recent update (likely on April 4, 2024).
Fine Print: If as of April 5, 2024, the latest date on the "Flowering Meter" is still March 28, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-03-27T17:00:00Z
|
2024-04-03T22:00:00Z
|
2024-04-04T19:44:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21972
|
Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?
|
[The Walt Disney Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Walt_Disney_Company) is facing a [proxy fight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_fight), as two investment firms are seeking board seats at the upcoming [April 3, 2024 shareholder meeting](https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/disney-date-2024-shareholder-meeting-rejects-board-nominees-1235894803/). [Trian Partners](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trian_Partners) has put forward two nominees for [board seats](https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/george-lucas-disney-iger-proxy-fight-board-1235945607/) and [Blackwells Capital](https://www.blackwellscap.com/) has put forward three, with each investment firm expressing dissatisfaction with Disney's performance and leadership.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that at least one non-Disney -nominated board member has been elected to Disney's board as a result of the April 3, 2024, shareholder vote.
Fine Print: A non-Disney-nominated board member is one that was not one of the twelve board members nominated by Disney.
|
2024-03-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-04-03T13:00:00Z
|
2024-04-03T21:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21971
|
Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?
|
Following a [$464 million civil fraud judgment](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-fraud-trial/?id=103642561) against Donald Trump, the former President has [sought to appeal](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-appeals-355-million-ruling-144615752.html) the outcome of the trial. However, his pursuit of such an appeal first requires that he post a bond in the full amount of the judgement. Mr. Trump has reportedly [faced significant challenges](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-appeal-bond-fraud-net-worth-b2514521.html) in securing such a bond, allegedly facing rejection from "about 30" surety companies.
Regarding the possibility that Trump will fail to post the bond or otherwise satisfy the judgement, New York Attorney General Letitia James [has said](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/19/1239524037/heres-what-happens-if-trump-cant-pay-his-454-million-bond) the following:
>If he does not have funds to pay off the judgment, then we will seek judgment enforcement mechanisms in court, and we will ask the judge to seize his assets.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if, before November 5, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the State of New York has seized one or more of Donald Trump's real estate assets in order to satisfy the judgment in Trump's [New York civil fraud case](https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2024/attorney-general-james-wins-landmark-victory-case-against-donald-trump).
If no such actions have been reported by the specified date, the question will resolve negatively.
Fine Print: - Reports indicating that the State of New York has merely begun or advanced the process of seizing Donald Trump's real estate holdings will not trigger a positive resolution of this question. For a positive resolution, such reports must indicate that a seizure has been completed, such that Mr. Trump no longer has legal ownership of, or control over, the asset(s).
- In the event that at the time credible reports confirming a seizure, such actions by the State of New York are simultaneously the subject of legal dispute, this question still resolves positively upon reporting either event has already occurred, irrespective of whether they are subsequently annulled, reversed, etc.
- In the case of ambiguous or conflicting reporting by or between credible sources, Metaculus admins may use their reasonable judgement to resolve the question.
For the purpose of this question, "seize" and "seizure" refer to the legal process of taking control of property by the State to satisfy a debt or judgment (including, but not limited to, through a court-approved Order to Seize).
|
2024-04-02T13:57:00Z
|
2024-11-05T07:00:00Z
|
2024-11-13T15:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21867
|
Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?
|
On 13 February 2024, the $95-billion overseas aid bill passed the US Senate in a 70-29 vote; however, the US Speaker Mike Johnson refused to say he would bring the bill to the floor of the House.
Congress members may bypass the Speaker's will by filing a [discharge petition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition) and bringing the bill from the committee to the floor; however, to succeed, it needs to be signed by the majority of the House members.
Due to the public signing process and the petition requiring signatures of the House majority, they are rarely successful. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition#:~:text=Between%201931%20and%202003%2C%20563%20discharge%20petitions%20were%20filed%2C%20of%20which%20only%2047%20obtained%20the%20required%20majority%20of%20signatures.):
>Between 1931 and 2003, 563 discharge petitions were filed, of which only 47 obtained the required majority of signatures.
As of 13 March 2024, 10 discharge petitions had been filed at the 118th Congress, none of which had been signed by a House majority (218 votes).
In regard to the overseas aid bill, two discharge petitions: [No.9](https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031209?CongressNum=118) and [No.10](https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031210?CongressNum=118) were filed on 12 March 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if any discharge petition listed on the [Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives](https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/?CongressNum=118) page and filed during the [118th Congress term](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress) receives 218 signatures or more.
If none of the discharge petitions have satisfied the above criteria by the end of the last day of work of the 118th Congress, the question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: This question is specifically about reaching the 218 signatures threshold. Even if the U.S. House is downsized and requires fewer votes for a majority, the question will still need 218 signatures to resolve as **Yes**.
If some signatures are retracted after reaching the threshold, the question will still resolve as **Yes**.
|
2024-03-14T20:41:00Z
|
2024-12-31T11:00:00Z
|
2024-05-15T04:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21864
|
Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?
|
A March 7, 2024, [VentureBeat article](https://venturebeat.com/ai/nist-staffers-revolt-against-potential-appointment-of-effective-altruist-ai-researcher-to-us-ai-safety-institute/) claimed that AI safety researcher [Paul Christiano](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Christiano_(researcher)) was expected to be appointed to a role at a newly announced branch of the US [National Institute of Standards and Technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Institute_of_Standards_and_Technology) (NIST) known as the US [Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute](https://www.nist.gov/artificial-intelligence/artificial-intelligence-safety-institute) (USAISI). The article claimed that Christiano's expected appointment had upset some NIST staff members and led some staff members to threaten to resign. The article attributes the disturbance to be caused by Christiano's affiliation with effective altruism and longtermism, and a negative impression of those affiliation held by some staffers.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, either Paul Christiano or representatives for NIST or the US AI Safety Institute (USAISI) officially and publicly confirm that Paul Christiano will be employed at the USAISI.
Fine Print: Leaks or anonymous reports do not count.
The question resolves as **Yes** if an official confirmation is made, regardless of whether it is later retracted.
Participation in the [US AI Safety Institute Consortium](https://www.nist.gov/artificial-intelligence/artificial-intelligence-safety-institute) (AISIC) without direct employment by NIST or the US AI Safety Institute does not count.
|
2024-03-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-03-31T22:00:00Z
|
2024-04-01T06:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21860
|
Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?
|
Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded, neobrokers like [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/gb/en/) or [Freetrade](https://freetrade.io/) have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock market and neobanks like [Nubank](https://international.nubank.com.br/about/), which is currently valued over 100B$, has grown into one of the most popular financial brands in LatAm. Revolut, born in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.
[Revolut](https://revolut.com/) has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut has [a banking licence for the EEA (European Economic Area), that was granted by the Bank of Lithuania](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/). However, the company has failed to obtain a banking license in the UK; limiting its ability to offer certain products and services to its customers. It currently operates as [an "e-money institution" in the UK](https://www.revolut.com/blog/post/can-you-use-revolut-as-a-bank-account/).
Two of the main concerns seem to have been the company's management of anti-money laundering (AML) risks and its complex capital structure. It was announced in October 2023 that the company had reached an agreement with its shareholders about [collapsing all of its share classes into one](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/revolut-strikes-share-deal-with-softbank-remove-barrier-uk-licence-ft-2023-10-03/). However, issues around its AML track record were still being mentioned in the press as recently as [September 2023](https://www.ft.com/content/2faf1799-78d9-4316-8e1d-590d2c601ac6).
Additional resource:
From the FT, [Will Revolut ever get a British banking licence?](https://www.ft.com/content/6d2eef34-d414-49c7-8557-c43a3d9ab803)
[What Revolut’s attempt to secure a UK banking licence could mean for its current customers and for the ‘unbanked’](https://theconversation.com/what-revoluts-attempt-to-secure-a-uk-banking-licence-could-mean-for-its-current-customers-and-for-the-unbanked-215196)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if Revolut secures a [banking license](https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/financial-services-register) from the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), either directly or through indirect means such as authorisation to acquire another bank or company already holding a UK banking license.
The question resolves based on any formal announcement from the FCA (or other UK regulatory entity able to grant a banking license) or from other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that Revolut will be obtaining a banking license. This must be a full license (i.e. not a provisional one).
|
2024-05-19T11:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T05:01:00Z
|
2025-01-14T08:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21796
|
Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?
|
On March 7, the House Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously advanced two pieces legislation both on a 50-0 vote - the ["Protecting Americans’ Data from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2024"](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7520?s=1&r=1) (H.R. 7520) and the ["Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act"](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7521?s=1&r=1) (H.R. 7521). These two bills, if passed and sign into law, would prevent applications from being available in US app stores or web hosting services when those applications are subject to the control of a foreign adversary, as defined by Congress in Title 10. This would include TikTok, currently owned by ByteDance, a Chinese company.
The bills also create a process for apps to remain on US app stores and web hosting services if they sever ties to entities subject to the control of a foreign adversary through divestment. This suggests that these laws, if passed, would require ByteDance to sell off TikTok or face it being banned in the United States.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as *Yes* if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that the US government has taken action, through an enacted law or executive order, with at least one of the following effects:
* Forces a sale of US-facing components of TikTok effective in 365 days or less relative to the date of the act being signed into law or the executive order being published.
* Prevents the TikTok mobile app from being available in the Google Play Store and the iOS App Store
Fine Print: For this question to resolve Yes, the media reporting must be in consensus that these effects are highly likely as the result of the law or executive order. These effects need not actually happen for the question to resolve Yes. Metaculus admin discretion may be used to resolve this question in the result of ambiguity.
If sources report that the law or executive order could be contested in the courts, the question will still resolve as Yes if, absent court challenges, it would satisfy the criteria described here.
If the TikTok app can be downloaded via a technical circumvention that violates the app store terms of service, this would not affect resolution of the question and the question can still resolve Yes.
If US users can still access TikTok if it was previously downloaded, this would not affect resolution and the question can still resolve Yes. That is, the app need not be forcibly uninstalled from users devices, only that it can no longer be supported by both the Google Play Store and the iOS App Store.
|
2024-03-08T23:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T11:00:00Z
|
2024-04-24T15:13:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21792
|
Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?
|
[Territorial disputes over the South China Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea) have led to high tensions between China and a number of regional countries, including the Philippines. On March 5, 2024, [Chinese and Philippine military vessels collided](https://apnews.com/article/philippines-china-south-china-sea-collision-e69d9506e85d1d23685db4f220b50d71) during a Philippine resupply mission to an outpost in the South China Sea, and Chinese vessels sprayed water cannons at the Philippine vessels.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after March 6, 2024, and before April 1, 2024, credible sources report a new confrontation has occurred between Chinese and Philippine military vessels. A confrontation will be considered to be one where vessels collide or weapons, including water cannons, are used by one side against the other, and will not include aggressive behavior where no physical contact or use of weapons.
Fine Print: A military vessel will be considered to be any vessel operating as part of a military operation, which could include civilian ships being contracted for military purposes that are escorted by military vessels. The Coast Guards of each country will be included, as will China's [Maritime Militia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_Militia_(China)).
|
2024-03-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-03-31T22:00:00Z
|
2024-03-23T00:10:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21789
|
Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?
|
Haiti has seen [significant unrest recently](https://apnews.com/article/haiti-violence-prison-break-curfew-105ca137aa337b9e6681cf87add9a5c1), as gangs have freed thousands of prisoners from prisons and attempted to seize control of Haiti's main international airport.
Haiti's Acting Prime Minister, Ariel Henry, has faced [an increased threat to his position](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21405/ariel-henry-out-as-acting-pm-by-april/) as unrest has grown. Henry has been traveling outside the country recently, leading to speculation as to whether he is intentionally avoiding returning home. [According to ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/gangs-plunge-haiti-anarchy-people-world-prime-minister-107814828):
>The embattled leader, who assumed power following the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, has been notably absent since the country's latest and most serious outbreak of violence started last week. Henry has stayed silent as he crisscrosses the world, from South America to Africa, with no announced date of return.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 13, 2024, credible sources report that Ariel Henry has returned to Haiti.
Fine Print: * Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.
* Where information is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.
|
2024-03-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-03-12T22:00:00Z
|
2024-03-14T03:21:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21774
|
If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?
|
Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are both running for the Republican Party nomination for the 2024 US Presidential election. Traditionally defeated candidates for the nomination will endorse the party's candidate, [however Nikki Haley has cast doubt on weather she would](https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1764294831134687242).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if Nikki Haley announces that she will vote for, or is encouraging other people to vote for, Donald Trump in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
If Donald Trump is not the Republican nominee, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-03-06T00:44:00Z
|
2024-11-04T12:00:00Z
|
2024-05-22T20:49:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21611
|
Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?
|
Spanish democracy has a mechanism where the president can call a [snap election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snap_election#Spain), described in Section 115 of the [Spanish constitution](https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/documents/constitucion_inglescorregido.pdf). The [last election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election) was held July 23, 2023, after [snap elections were called](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/spanish-prime-minister-calls-for-early-general-election.html). The [next Spanish general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Spanish_general_election) is scheduled to be held by August of 2027, but potentially could be called much earlier.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, a dissolution of the Spanish Congress has been announced, with a snap election called.
Fine Print: The official act that counts for the resolution is a royal proclamation of dissolution. No other acts are required; in particular, the election date need not have been set or occurred yet. It is immaterial to the question whether some government is formed and collapses, or if no investiture is possible, as well as which government remains as caretaker.
|
2024-03-23T16:04:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-07T20:16:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21550
|
Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?
|
The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States.
The election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College).
In December the electors will cast their votes for the President. In January, Congress counts and certifies these votes to determine who will be elected president. If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes the president will be decided by the [United States House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives) in a [contingent election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election).
Since the inception of the United States, [five elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote) have resulted in the winner losing the popular vote.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the winner of 2024 United States presidential election wins a plurality of votes. If the winner does not win a plurality of votes it will resolve as **No**.
It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the vote or selects the president in the event of no candidate receiving a majority.
Fine Print: If the 2024 United States presidential election is not held or if congress does not certify the vote by February 1, 2025 the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.
The popular vote will be determined by the official vote count provided by the Federal Election Commission.
|
2024-03-11T14:20:00Z
|
2024-11-04T01:00:00Z
|
2025-01-07T20:15:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21546
|
Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?
|
On February 19, 2024, Houthi rebels in Yemen struck the *M/V Rubymar* - a Belize-flagged, UK-registered, and Lebanese-operated open-hatch general cargo ship - with ballistic missiles whilst it was operating in the Gulf of Aden. The ship sustained major damage, however the crew managed to anchor the ship before [escaping](https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/1759401808668070214?s=20) unharmed. The ship remains abandoned south of the Hanish Islands, which is around 50km from the coast of Yemen.
The United States Central Command (USCENTCOM) [reported](https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1761225931656704052?s=20) that an 18 mile oil slick had formed.
With the *Rubymar* filled with 41,000 tonnes of fertiliser (ammonia), as well as fuel, there has been speculation that if the vessel were to sink, that an environmental disaster could occur.
Yemen's internationally recognised government recently [requested](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2465881/middle-east) international assistance in preventing the release of the vessel's cargo.
With Houthi attacks ongoing in the region, there are serious security risks associated with a salvage operation. However, the Houthi’s may provide safe passage to salvage vessels since any environmental disaster would inevitably have an impact on the Houthi’s themselves. Indeed, any ceasefire in the ongoing [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war) may provide a window to safely commence operations.
Previously, on August 11, 2023, an [international salvage operation](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18102/safer-transfer-finished-in-19-days/) by Boskalis took place on the Safer - a Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) vessel - which was anchored off the coast of Yemen and at risk of spilling over 1.1 million barrels of oil due to being in a state of disrepair largely due to the Yemen civil war.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, credible reports state that salvage operations have commenced on the *M/V Rubymar*.
If at any point prior to April 1, where no salvage operations have commenced, the vessel sinks, or releases more than 80% of its cargo, the question will resolve **No**.
Fine Print: Some examples of salvage operations are:
- Draining of the ships cargo and/or fuel.
- Towing back to port.
- Retrofitting of buoyancy modules.
- Repair of damages.
The salvage operations need not complete, but only commence.
|
2024-02-28T15:30:00Z
|
2024-03-29T12:00:00Z
|
2024-03-02T16:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21493
|
Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?
|
The [96th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/96th_Academy_Awards) ceremony is scheduled for 10 March 2024.
Currently Christopher Nolan's [Oppenheimer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oppenheimer_(film)) biopic has the most nominations (13) followed by [Poor Things](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poor_Things_(film)) (11) and [Killers of the Flower Moon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killers_of_the_Flower_Moon_(film)) (10)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves to **Yes** if the official page of the [96th Academy Awards](https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2024) indicates that the Oppenheimer film has won more awards than any other film.
It resolves to **No** if there is a tie or another movie has the most awards.
Fine Print: If the official Oscars page is inaccessible or there are reasons to believe its data are incorrect another resolution source may be used.
|
2024-02-29T15:30:00Z
|
2024-03-10T11:00:00Z
|
2024-03-11T16:13:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21490
|
Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?
|
[Sir Lindsay Hoyle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindsay_Hoyle) is a former Labour MP and the current speaker of the House of Commons in the UK. Unlike in the US, the speaker of the House of Commons in the UK is not a member of either party and is conventionally strictly non-partisan.
On the 21st of February 2024, he caused tremendous controversy and uproar amongst members of the Tory and SNP parties when, on the SNP's opposition day (a day where the SNP decides which issues are debated in the House of Commons) he selected the Labour amendment to the SNP's motion to be debated, in addition to the SNPs motion. This was controversial because the Tory government had also put forth an amendment for consideration, and long-standing precedent is that if the government puts forward an amendment, then only that amendment will be considered in addition to the original motion.
Members of the SNP expressed their fury with the decision, as it undermined their opposition day and as it posed the possibility of the house not being able to vote on the SNPs own motion on its opposition day. The Tory Party was upset because in addition to breaking with convention, the decision put many members of the government in a politically precarious position because it would likely result in the government's own amendment not being considered. As a result, the Tory Party abstained from both votes, and the SNP's motion and the Labour amendments passed unanimously without a division.
In statements in the House after the motion and amendment had passed, the leader of the SNP and Tory parties both expressed their concern over their parties to have confidence in the speaker's impartiality going forward.
Resolution Criteria: The Question will resolve as **Yes** if, at 00:00 on March 1, 2024 (local time, GMT), Sir Lindsey Hoyle is still Speaker of the House of Commons, according to reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
|
2024-02-22T01:00:00Z
|
2024-03-01T00:01:00Z
|
2024-03-01T00:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21489
|
Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?
|
President Biden has faced significant criticism from conservatives, and from [liberals as well](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/15/biden-border-immigration-00141388), regarding his handling of the border. Illegal border crossings hit an [all-time high](https://apnews.com/article/immigration-border-crossings-mexico-biden-18ac91ef502e0c5433f74de6cc629b32) in December 2023, before [encounters fell in January 2024](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters).
<img src="https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2024-02-21_123130.jpeg" alt="Land Border Encounters by Month" />
*[Image from US Customs and Border Protection](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters)*
[According to Axios](https://www.axios.com/2024/02/19/biden-trump-age-state-union-election), the Biden administration has been seeking a means to improve public perceptions and improve Biden's [polling deficit against Trump](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden), and sees his upcoming [State of the Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_the_Union) address as such an opportunity. According to unnamed officials cited by Axios, one approach being considered by Biden is to publish an executive order on the border ahead of the State of the Union:
>One bold move that Biden has considered, we're told, is an executive order that would dramatically stanch the record flow of migrants into the Southwest. This could even happen in the two weeks before the address, allowing Biden to say he took action while Republicans just talk.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after February 21, 2024, and before President Biden's State of the Union speech begins on March 7, 2024, the Biden administration has issued an executive order that it describes as targeted at reducing the flow of migrants entering the US.
Fine Print: * For the purposes of this question, the policies or actions described in the executive order are immaterial and no consideration will be made as to their efficacy. Only a description or characterization by the Biden administration that one of the goals of the executive order is to reduce the number of migrants entering into the US is required.
* Descriptions or characterizations will be considered to be the public materials or statements made by the administration regarding the executive order on the day the executive order was released. This might include fact sheets or press briefings (for example the [fact sheet](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/02/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-initiative-to-bolster-cybersecurity-of-u-s-ports/) that accompanied a recent [executive order issued on February 21, 2024](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2024/02/21/executive-order-on-amending-regulations-relating-to-the-safeguarding-of-vessels-harbors-ports-and-waterfront-facilities-of-the-united-states/). Metaculus will assess the descriptions or characterizations to resolve the question, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** in the event the available information is unclear.
* This question will resolve as **Yes** if the criteria have been met before the start of the State of the Union on March 7, 2024, or, if the State of the Union is delayed until after March 7, if the criteria have been met before March 8, 2024.
|
2024-02-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-02-29T23:00:00Z
|
2024-03-11T16:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21488
|
Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?
|
[Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-earnings-after-parabolic-stock-rally.html). The stock is up [approximately 41% year-to-date as of February 21, 2024](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjVr6qM8LyEAxWY5MkDHRwNC4UQ3ecFegQIahAf&window=YTD).
As of February 21 the website [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) shows Nvidia as the sixth ranked company globally by [market capitalization](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp), which is the total dollar value of outstanding shares of the company's stock. Nvidia trails Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Saudi Aramco, Apple, and Microsoft.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when trading closes on March 29, 2024, (after 4 PM eastern time), Nvidia is ranked fourth place or higher by market cap [according to CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/).
|
2024-02-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-03-28T22:00:00Z
|
2024-03-29T20:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21487
|
Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?
|
Nikki Haley remains the only major candidate opposing Donald Trump for the nomination to be the Republican Party's candidate for president in the 2024 US election. As of February 21, 2024, [political analysis website 538 shows](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/) Haley with a primary polling average of 17.1% compared to Trump's 77.7%.
Despite trailing Trump in both polls and [delegates from the first three states](https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/#), as recently as February 20 Haley has [said she's staying in the race](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/haley-shes-dropping-feel-kiss-ring-trump/story?id=107370200). However, it is unclear how long she'll continue to campaign. The next primary to occur will be South Carolina on February 24, where [Haley was governor for six years](https://apnews.com/article/south-carolina-republican-primary-what-to-expect-5b8ea70466d4ff1505ffe32633e11b0a). [Super Tuesday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday), when a number of states hold their primaries on the same day, is also [coming up on March 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Primaries_and_caucus_calendar).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 15, 2024, Nikki Haley officially announces that she has ended or suspended her campaign to be the 2024 Republican Party nominee for the US presidency.
Fine Print: * Ending or suspending her campaign for any reason, even temporarily, will result in the question resolving as **Yes**.
|
2024-02-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-03-14T22:00:00Z
|
2024-03-06T15:03:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21486
|
Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?
|
As per the Olympic Committee’s [recommendations](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/strict-eligibility-conditions-in-place-as-ioc-eb-approves-individual-neutral-athletes-ains-for-the-olympic-games-paris-2024) from earlier this year, Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to participate in the 2024 Games as long as they do so as so-called "Individual Neutral Athletes" (AINs), without an accompanying national flag or anthem.
The Russian Federation/Russian Olympic Committee has won an average of 19 gold medals in the last 3 Olympic Games, and Belarus has averaged 1.7.
Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Individual Neutral Athletes collectively win 21 or more gold medals at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. The source of resolution will be the official medal tally published by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if such reporting from the IOC is unavailable. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No".
In the event that Individual Neutral Athletes are confirmed to have won 21 or more gold medals prior to the end of the Games, the market will resolve immediately to "Yes".
Fine Print: This question is Annulled if the 2024 Summer Olympics is postponed past 2024 or otherwise cancelled.
|
2024-04-03T16:34:00Z
|
2024-08-11T23:00:00Z
|
2024-08-12T13:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21469
|
Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025?
|
Though it does not contain an explicit procedure for expulsion, according to an [analysis by Just Security](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/) NATO member states can by unanimous agreement, effectively expel a member state for material breach of the treaty:
Should the conditions for the existence of a material breach be satisfied, NATO’s member states would be entitled, by unanimous agreement, to suspend the operation of the treaty in whole or in part or to terminate it either in their relations with the defaulting state or among them all (Article 60(2) of the Vienna Convention). For these purposes, a unanimous decision of the North Atlantic Council, excluding the defaulting state, would suffice. No further procedural requirements apply, including those laid down in Article 65 of the Vienna Convention.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if at least one head of state or head of government in a NATO member country calls for Hungary to be expelled from NATO, at any time from question launch until end of day, December 31, 2024. This does not need to occur through a formal legal process or through the invocation of Article 60(2).
This question will resolve based on reputable media reports.
|
2024-02-21T18:26:00Z
|
2024-12-31T17:11:44.255000Z
|
2025-01-06T20:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21439
|
Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?
|
[Indian farmers are marching on Delhi in protest](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-68271364) as they attempt to persuade the government to meet [their demands](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/13/india-farmers-march-what-are-their-demands-why-is-govt-blocking-roads) for better pay. One of their key demands is to expand the [Minimum Support Price](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_support_price_(India)) (MSP), the price that the government recommends each year for a specified number of crops in order to ensure a minimum profit for farmers.
This protest follows a previous farmer protest that happened in [2020 and 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Indian_farmers%27_protest), which in the end resulted in Prime Minister Modi [withdrawing the agricultural laws that triggered the protests](https://apnews.com/article/business-india-new-delhi-narendra-modi-2bfb76c9d3c0246896425461166078b5). The Indian general elections are scheduled to be held [between April and May 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indian_general_election). With the elections drawing near the farmer protests may become a significant issue.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, credible sources report that India has enacted a law that expands the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for crops.
Fine Print: * For the purposes of this question, an expanded MSP would include new legal guarantees of minimum prices for crops not currently covered by a legal MSP. or a new law that would result in increases to the MSP paid (on average).
* The law need not directly specify an increased price for the MSP, a revised formula that credible sources report would result in a higher MSP is also sufficient.
* This question requires the enactment of a law that expands the MSP, a policy change or announcement of price increases (such as by the [Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs](http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php/Cabinet_Committee_on_Economic_Affairs_(CCEA))) without the enactment of such a law would result in the question resolving as **No**.
* An MSP law need not meet the protesters demands, the question will resolve as **Yes** so long as the MSP is legally expanded as defined in these criteria.
|
2024-02-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-03-31T22:00:00Z
|
2024-04-04T14:26:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21438
|
Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?
|
The [Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023–present)#27_October) commenced on October 27, 2023 in response to a [Hamas-led attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel)l on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand killed, and hundreds kidnapped.
The invasion was initially limited to Northern Gaza, but the plans were gradually expanded further South. Recently, Israel has [stated its intentions to expand its invasion to the Southern city of Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), which borders Egypt. These expansion plans, like prior ones, have seen widespread condemnation from both pro and anti-Israeli nations. This condemnation is primarily based on the alarming number of deaths and casualties stemming from the ground invasion; the growing humanitarian crisis, which has become more acute as the Israeli invasion has expanded; and the vast number of Palestinian refugees which are reportedly taking refuge in the city having fled from Northern Gaza.
Israel has already [commenced airstrikes and covert raids in Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), but a full-scale ground invasion has yet to commence.
Amongst the nations who have condemned the plans are the US - Israel's closest ally - and Egypt - Gaza's Southern neighbour who has threatened to break it's 45 year old peace treaty with Israel if the ground invasion plans commence in Rafah.
Will Israel expand its ground offensive to Rafah by the first day of Ramadan?
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) (ISW) reports Israeli military operations on its map at any of six locations surrounding Rafah (the specific locations are shown in the map embedded below) on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024).
<iframe src="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1VCJMA9AH4k8G6v33Yr6z254_umiNe4Q&ehbc=2E312F" width="640" height="480"}}>
</iframe>
Fine Print: * Israeli military operations will be considered to be both of the following, or any similar entries added to the map:
* "Reported Israeli clearing operations"
* "Claimed furthest Israeli advances"
* If Metaculus has reason to believe that the ISW map is no longer being updated or maintained the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-02-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-03-11T11:00:00Z
|
2024-03-13T02:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21418
|
Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?
|
[United States of America v. Donald J. Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(election_obstruction_case)?useskin=vector) is a pending federal criminal case in which former president Donald Trump is accused of, among other things, obstruction of an official proceeding, and conspiracy to defraud the United States, in connection with his alleged participation in attempts to circumvent or overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
Trump filed [a motion to dismiss](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.258148/gov.uscourts.dcd.258148.74.0_1.pdf) the indictment against him in this case on the basis that as president, he enjoyed absolute immunity for criminal acts performed within the "outer perimeter" of his official responsibility. This argument was [rejected by the trial judge](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67598948) in December 2023, and on appeal, [rejected](https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/1AC5A0E7090A350785258ABB0052D942/$file/23-3228-2039001.pdf) by a three-judge panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on February 6 2024.
Trump may appeal to the Supreme Court of the United States by filing a [petition for a writ of certiorari.](https://www.uscourts.gov/about-federal-courts/educational-resources/about-educational-outreach/activity-resources/supreme-1) Supreme Court rules require that at least four of the nine Justices vote in favour of granting a writ of cert in order for the Court to hear an appeal. The Supreme Court typically agrees to hear only about 2% of the cases it is petitioned to hear appeals in each year.
Trump has been [directed](https://i0.wp.com/www.justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/dc-court-mandate.png?w=634&ssl=1) to file an application for a stay of the mandate pending the filing of a petition for a writ of cert in this case on or before February 12, or else jurisdiction will return to the trial court and pre-trial processes, suspended since Trump's initial appeal was filed in December, may resume.
Whether the Supreme Court agrees to hear an appeal has [significant implications](https://www.justsecurity.org/91837/how-long-will-trumps-immunity-appeal-take-analyzing-the-alternative-timelines/) for the timing of Trump's trial in this case, even if Trump's assertion of immunity is ultimately rejected. If the Supreme Court does not agree to hear an appeal, it is highly likely that Trump will face trial in this matter before the presidential election. If it does agree to hear an appeal, whether Trump is tried before the election in this matter will likely hinge on the timetable the Court sets for briefing and argument, and how long it takes the Court to deliver its opinion.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern on April 1, 2024, the Supreme Court of the United States has granted a petition for a writ of certiorari for Donald Trump to appeal the issue of presidential immunity, or otherwise agreed to hear Trump's appeal on the matter. The question will resolve as **No** if that has not happened, including if the Supreme Court is still considering at that time whether to grant the writ of cert, or if no petition has been filed; or if the Supreme Court denies Trump cert on this matter.
This question only requires that the Supreme Court issue a writ of cert, or to agree to hear the appeal. There is no requirement that the appeal actually be heard or any briefing in the case be submitted before April 1.
|
2024-02-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-03-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-02-28T22:09:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21406
|
[Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?
|
[Super Bowl LVIII](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVIII) is the 58th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2023 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of [Super Bowl LIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIV) (which the Chiefs also won) on 11 February 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.
Metaculus has predicted in a variety of domains but can Metaculus do well at sports? [Closing odds on the Buccaneers to win Super Bowl LV were 41%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6393/buccaneers-win-super-bowl-lv/), and the Bucs went on to win the game.
The 49ers are favorites by 2 points.
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as YES if the Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII, per credible media reporting. If the 49ers win, it resolves as NO.
Fine Print: If the game is cancelled or otherwise is unable to finish to completion by the following day, this question resolve ambiguously.
|
2024-02-08T19:58:00Z
|
2024-02-11T22:00:00Z
|
2024-02-12T03:53:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21405
|
Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?
|
[Ariel Henry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariel_Henry) has been Acting Prime Minister of Haiti since he was [appointed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57910829) by former president [Jovenel Moïse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jovenel_Mo%C3%AFse), who was assassinated on July 7, 2021, shortly after appointing Henry.
Gang violence and political instability have disrupted Haiti in recent years. Elections have repeatedly been cancelled due to instability following the last national elections in 2016, and [no elected officials remain in government](https://www.npr.org/2023/01/18/1149556481/haiti-last-elected-official-political-crisis). Frustrations have culminated in [recent protests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68239332), as February 7, 2024, was the day that the new government [would have been sworn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Haitian_general_election#:~:text=On%2021%20December%202022%2C%20Henry%20signed%20an%20agreement%20with%20political%20parties%2C%20civil%20society%20organizations%20and%20private%20sector%20members%20to%20hold%20the%20elections%20in%202023%2C%20with%20the%20new%20government%20scheduled%20to%20be%20sworn%20in%20on%207%20February%202024.) in following the most recent cancelled election.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, Ariel Henry is no longer the Acting Prime Minister or Primer Minister of Haiti, for any reason.
Fine Print: * To resolve as **Yes** Ariel Henry must neither be the acting or permanent prime minister of Haiti, his title changing from Acting Prime Minister to Prime Minister is not sufficient.
* If Ariel Henry is no longer able to exercise his authority as Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister, such as in the case where he flees the country or is deposed in a coup, this question will also resolve as **Yes**. If the circumstances are difficult to discern, Metaculus may use the available information to make a determination or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.
|
2024-02-09T18:09:00Z
|
2024-03-31T22:00:00Z
|
2024-03-11T14:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21394
|
Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?
|
The Houthis of Yemen have been attacking surface ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait with missiles and drones for weeks now, but a new potentially important target is starting to receive increased attention by both the international community and the Houthis. A network of cables, which transfers approximately [17 percent](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/05/houthis-may-sabotage-western-internet-cables-in-red-sea-yemen-telecoms-firms-warn) of global internet data, is located at the bottom of the Red Sea.
Recently a Houthi-aligned Telegram channel pointed this out in an indirect threat. Yemen’s General Telecommunications Company has subsequently [warned](https://www.mofa-ye.org/Pages/25833/) about the danger. However, similar threats were previously raised in late [December](https://www.memri.org/jttm/veiled-threat-telegram-channels-linked-houthi-ansar-allah-movement-point-submarine-internet), but have not brought significant attention due to a focus on the dangers to international shipping.
While these cables are supposed to be unreachable without high-tech equipment such as advanced submarines, in some places the sea floor is only a depth of around [100 metres](https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/could-the-houthis-sabotage-international-internet-cables-in-the-red-sea/?cf-view). Such locations might therefore allow a potential saboteur to reach the cables even without equipment.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 15, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that data cable infrastructure in the Red Sea has suffered damage caused by a hostile actor.
Fine Print: Only sabotage and similar violent attacks (it does not have to be specifically attributed to the Houthis) against the infrastructure will count. Therefore no damage caused by mishandled maintenance work and similar events will count.
|
2024-02-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-03-14T22:58:00Z
|
2024-03-15T20:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21354
|
Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?
|
The most serious attack occurred at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, Germany. Five of the hostage takers were killed, along with eleven members of the Israeli Olympic Team and one West German policeman.
At the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, a bombing at the Centennial Olympic Park resulted in one death and over 100 injuries. This was classified as domestic terrorism. [Centennial Olympic Park bombing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centennial_Olympic_Park_bombing)
At the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, a knife attack at a Beijing market left [three people dead and over 60 injured]((https://www.start.umd.edu/news/olympics-and-terrorism). Although it did not occur during the 1988 Olympics in Seoul, Korea, the bombing of Korean Air Flight 858 on November 29, 1987 was [considered to be a terrorist attack by North Korea]( https://www.history.com/news/1988-seoul-olympics-north-korea-terrorist-attack) in an attempt to get the Olympics moved from Seoul.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as Yes if a terrorist attack in [Metropolitan France](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_France) injures and/or kills at least one person, other than the terrorist(s), between, and inclusive of, the day of the Opening Ceremony (26 July 2024) and the day of the Closing Ceremony (11 August 2024). The question will resolve as No if the above does not happen.
An event will be considered a 'terrorist attack' if it is described as such by any agency of the State of France, or by the French President, Prime Minister, or a member of the Council of Ministers.
Fine Print: 1. The 'day of the Opening Ceremony' starts at 12:00:00 AM (Midnight) Paris time on 26 July 2024.
2. The 'day of the Closing Ceremony' ends at 11:59:59 PM Paris time on 11 August 2024.
3. The reason for including time before and after the above ceremonies is the gathering of a large number of people is a high-risk time as a terrorist event is most likely to occur outside of venues.
4. The terrorist act can occur anywhere in [Metropolitan France](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_France).
5. If only the terrorist(s) is injured or killed, this question will not resolve Yes. A non-terrorist must be a victim to resolve Yes.
6. 'Terrorist attack' is not limited to any form of attack. Bomb, guns, knives, and other weapons have been used in terrorist attacks in Europe over the past 20 years.
|
2024-02-09T18:25:00Z
|
2024-08-11T21:59:00Z
|
2024-08-11T23:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21320
|
Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?
|
Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah), a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as [acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war). The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).
Hezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
We previously asked: [Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19375/israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024/)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 12, 2023 and before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that there have been 1000 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah.
Fine Print: * Both combatant and non-combatant deaths count toward the total.
* Deaths will be summed over the entirety of the period in question.
* In the event death totals are reported but it is not clear which conflict the deaths occurred in (for example, if deaths of Israeli military members are reported in total and not disaggregated between those occurring in conflict with Hamas and those occurring in conflict with Hezbollah) Metaculus may use the available estimates to make a determination whether the threshold has been met.
* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.
* The median will be used if a range is provided. If estimates differ Metaculus may combine the estimates or select one it considers most credible, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if the estimates differ substantially.
|
2024-02-02T14:38:00Z
|
2024-12-31T14:34:48Z
|
2024-09-23T16:49:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21306
|
Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?
|
The [2023 Atlantic hurricane season](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-ranks-4th-for-most-named-storms-in-year#:~:text=The%20above%2Dnormal%202023%20Atlantic,in%20a%20year%20since%201950.), concluding on November 30, stood out due to exceptionally warm Atlantic sea temperatures and a potent El Nino. With 20 named storms, it's the fourth highest since 1950. Of these, seven escalated to hurricanes, and three reached major hurricane status, surpassing the average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The season **officially begins on June 1, 2024, and ends on November 30, 2024**.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves "Yes" if more than 18 storms are officially named in the Atlantic basin during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1, 2024 to November 30, 2024 according to the [National Hurricane Centre](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If the NHC does not name more than 18 storms before November 30, 2024, the question resolves "No."
|
2024-02-03T21:23:00Z
|
2024-12-01T00:00:00Z
|
2024-12-08T06:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21280
|
Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?
|
On Monday January 29, 2024, the United States [reported](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3659809/3-us-service-members-killed-others-injured-in-jordan-following-drone-attack/) that three soldiers were killed and over 40 injured in Jordan in a drone attack. On January 30, President Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/30/politics/biden-jordan-attack-response/index.html) that he has decided how to respond, but the US has not yet publicly revealed its response.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 30, 2024, and before February 7, 2024, the United States publicly confirms that it has carried out attacks against the Iranian military.
Fine Print: * For the purposes of this question, the Iranian military will include official Iranian military personnel and equipment possessed and operated by Iran, and does **not** include the personnel or equipment of any groups which may be supported or backed by Iran.
* Such an attack need not be on Iranian soil, and would include attacks against Iranian military forces operating outside the borders of Iran.
* A public confirmation will be considered one in which an official acting on behalf of the US government makes a statement that satisfies these criteria, and does **not** include anonymous reports or leaks.
|
2024-01-31T15:30:00Z
|
2024-02-06T23:00:00Z
|
2024-02-02T21:38:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21274
|
Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election?
|
In early January 2024, Rep. Bill Johnson communicated to the Governor of Ohio that he would be vacating his congressional seat effective of the 21st of January 2024 in order to take up position as the 10th President of Youngstown State University.
On the 4th of January, [Governor DeWine announced ] (https://governor.ohio.gov/media/news-and-media/governor-dewine-calls-special-election-for-ohios-6th-congressional-district) that the special election process was scheduled as followed: partisan primary elections will happen on the 19th of March, and the general election will happen on the 11th June 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report that a person representing the Republican Party has won the special election for OH's 6th district. If popular sources are in disagreement, an Ohio State source or statement will be used. If no election is held before January 1, 2025, the question is annulled.
|
2024-01-31T15:58:00Z
|
2024-06-12T03:59:00Z
|
2024-06-12T15:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21264
|
Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?
|
[Article 5](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20Parties%20agree%20that%20an,by%20Article%2051%20of%20the) of the North Atlantic treaty outlines the terms of members' "collective self defense":
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”
Article 5 action was taken for the first and only time after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the US. NATO Secretary General, Lord Robertson, issued a statement on September 12, 2001 that the attack would be covered under Article 5 if it was confirmed that the attack was directed from abroad, which was [affirmed on October 2, 2001](https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2001/1001/e1002a.htm). This resulted in the deployment of an international anti-terrorism task force to Afghanistan.
Further reading can be found [on NATO's website](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if after February 1, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, the North Atlantic Council takes NATO Article 5 action, according to credible sources.
NATO Article 5 action is said to be taken if the North Atlantic Council publicly affirms that there has been an attack on a NATO member which is regarded as an action covered by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Fine Print: If Article 5 is amended and no longer holds a similar meaning to its meaning on January 29, 2024, based on the judgement of admins, then the question is annulled.
|
2024-01-30T22:58:00Z
|
2024-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2025-01-04T03:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21256
|
Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?
|
The heavyweight matchup is scheduled to take place on 18 May 2024 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This fight will be for the [undisputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undisputed_championship_(boxing)) heavyweight champion. Both fighters are currently undefeated in their professional careers.
According to Wikipedia:
>[Tyson Luke Fury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Fury), "Gypsy King" (born 12 August 1988) is a British professional boxer. He has held the World Boxing Council (WBC) heavyweight title since 2020.
>Height 6 ft 9 in (206 cm)
Reach 85 in (216 cm)
Stance Orthodox
Boxing record
Total fights 35
Wins 34
Wins by KO 24
Draws 1
>[Oleksandr Oleksandrovych Usyk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Usyk) (Ukrainian: Олекса́ндр Олекса́ндрович У́сик; born 17 January 1987) is a Ukrainian professional boxer. He has held multiple world championships in two weight classes, including the unified heavyweight titles since 2021, and the Ring magazine title since 2022. He has also held the International Boxing Organization (IBO) title since 2021.
>Height 6 ft 3 in (191 cm)
Reach 78 in (198 cm)
Stance Southpaw
Boxing record
Total fights 21
Wins 21
Wins by KO 14
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves Yes if Tyson Fury wins the boxing bout against Oleksandr Usyk. It will resolve No if Usyk wins or there is a draw. If there is no fight between the two boxers before May 19th, 2024, the question is annulled.
|
2024-02-26T02:56:00Z
|
2024-05-17T04:00:00Z
|
2024-05-18T23:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21185
|
Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?
|
Hungary currently stands as the last country left to approve Sweden's accession into the NATO, in contrast to repeated [promises](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-sweden-nato-membership-orban-last-holdout-13cb5837bc1819382a08531a879fa348) that the country will not be the last one to do so. The Turkish Grand National Assembly [supported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/23/europe/turkey-vote-sweden-nato-intl/index.html) Sweden's accession on 23rd of January.
The Hungarian National Assembly is currently on a [winter break](https://www.parlament.hu/web/house-of-the-national-assembly/operation-of-the-national-assembly) and will convene again sometime in the middle of February, unless an extraordinary session is convened. This can be achieved if the President, government or one-fifth of of the MPs support such a motion.
Sweden was historically a neutral country, which however [changed](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/majority-swedes-favour-joining-nato-poll-2022-03-04/) after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In May 2022 the country applied to NATO together with Finland. Most NATO members approved Sweden's accession by September 2022, thus only Turkey and Hungary remained. While Turkey stated its conditions (e.g. a tougher stance against PKK members living in Sweden), Hungary never did, only repeatedly stated that they strongly support Sweden NATO accession, even though they disapprove of Sweden critique of the state of Hungary's democracy.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2024, the National Assembly of Hungary has ratified Sweden's accession to NATO. Resolution will be determined according to reporting by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: Note that presidential ratification by Hungary of Sweden's accession is not required for this question, only approval by the Hungarian National Assembly is required.
|
2024-01-31T15:30:00Z
|
2024-02-28T11:00:00Z
|
2024-02-26T15:57:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21183
|
Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?
|
On January 8, 2024, Ecuador's president Daniel Noboa [declared a 60-day state of emergency](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-declares-state-emergency-amid-prison-chaos-2024-01-08/). The state of emergency followed a [wave of violence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/11/24034891/ecuador-drugs-cocaine-cartels-violence-murder-daniel-naboa-columbia-crime) related to the drug trade in Ecuador and the [escape](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/who-is-fito-jose-macias-ecuador-gang-leader-rcna133435) of gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar (also known as Fito) from prison.
On January 19 it [was reported](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68038970) that Adolfo Macías Villamar's family had been expelled from Argentina.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that José Adolfo Macías Villamar (also known as Fito) is in Ecuadorian custody. If Adolfo Macías Villamar dies before being taken into custody this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2024-01-24T15:30:00Z
|
2024-03-31T22:00:00Z
|
2024-04-01T16:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21182
|
Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?
|
On January 8, 2024, Ecuador's president Daniel Noboa [declared a 60-day state of emergency](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-declares-state-emergency-amid-prison-chaos-2024-01-08/). The state of emergency followed a [wave of violence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/11/24034891/ecuador-drugs-cocaine-cartels-violence-murder-daniel-naboa-columbia-crime) related to the drug trade in Ecuador and the [escape](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/who-is-fito-jose-macias-ecuador-gang-leader-rcna133435) of gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar (also known as Fito) from prison.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 23, 2024, and before April 1, 2024, the government of Ecuador does either of the following:
* Extends the existing 60 day state of emergency at least one additional day
* Lets the existing state of emergency lapse and then declares another state of emergency
|
2024-01-24T15:30:00Z
|
2024-03-31T22:00:00Z
|
2024-03-08T12:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21138
|
Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?
|
Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. Despite that, it has not been formally recognised by any UN member state.
Ethiopia is one of the few landlocked countries of the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Prime Minister [has called](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67332811) its access to the sea an "existential question". He also said that if Ethiopia fails to get a port by peaceful means, they will use force.
Ethiopia and Somaliland [recently signed a deal](https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-january-11/) that grants Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next 50 years, where Ethiopia plans to construct a naval base. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognising Somaliland's independence. However, this move has been met with resistance from Somalia, which claims that the deal violates its territorial integrity. [Recently](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-rejects-mediation-efforts-with-ethiopia-over-port-deal-2024-01-18/), Somalia rejected any mediation efforts with Ethiopia over the port deal.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if in 2024 Ethiopia formally recognises the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state, as reported either by credible sources or directly by the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Fine Print: International law is clear (custom, codified in the 1933 Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States): state recognition is an irrevocable act. Therefore, this question will resolve **Yes** even if Ethiopia decides to withdraw the recognition at a later timepoint.
|
2024-01-23T17:57:00Z
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-08T22:08:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21137
|
Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?
|
Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. Despite that, it has not been formally recognised by any UN member state.
Ethiopia is one of the few landlocked countries of the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Prime Minister [has called](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67332811) its access to the sea an "existential question". He also said that if Ethiopia fails to get a port by peaceful means, they will use force.
Ethiopia and Somaliland [recently signed a deal](https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-january-11/) that grants Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next 50 years, where Ethiopia plans to construct a naval base. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognising Somaliland's independence. However, this move has been met with resistance from Somalia, which claims that the deal violates its territorial integrity. [Recently](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-rejects-mediation-efforts-with-ethiopia-over-port-deal-2024-01-18/), Somalia rejected any mediation efforts with Ethiopia over the port deal.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been at least 200 deaths among the overtly flagged members of the militaries of Ethiopia, Somalia, or Somaliland caused by confrontation with the overtly flagged military of any of the other states.
Fine Print: - Armed forces under government control will qualify, but rebel groups and groups supported by the government financially or otherwise will not.
- Deaths do not need to occur at the same time, or among the same military force, and all deaths and casualties among members of the armed forces of any of the militaries occurring in calendar year 2024 will count.
- If a range is provided by a source, the [mid-range](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-range) must be equal to the threshold. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.
|
2024-02-28T22:35:00Z
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-08T22:12:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21120
|
Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?
|
[Fani Willis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fani_Willis), the Fulton County District Attorney, has been at the forefront of a significant legal inquiry into former President Donald Trump's conduct in Georgia in the [immediate aftermath of the 2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Georgia_election_investigation).
Willis has encountered [new controversy](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/defendant-trumps-georgia-case-accuses-da-prosecutor-improper-relationship-2024-01-09/) concerning her association with attorney Nathan Wade, whom she hired as a special prosecutor on the case. The relationship between Willis and Wade has been the subject of intense scrutiny due to allegations of an improper relationship between the two.
Most recently, counsel for Michael Roman, a co-defendant in the Trump case, filed a [motion to disqualify](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24352568-roman-motion-to-dimiss-010824) both Willis and Wade, claiming they concealed a romantic relationship and enjoyed vacations together funded by taxpayer money. The motion, set for deliberation at a [February 15 hearing]( https://news.yahoo.com/georgia-judge-calls-hearing-fani-183618076.html), asks the court to disqualify Willis, Wade, and the Fulton County DA’s office from prosecuting the case.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves "Yes" if, prior to April 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Fani Willis no longer acts as attorney for the prosecution in The State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. (Case No. 23SC188947).
The mechanism by which Willis ceases to be attorney for the prosecution (e.g. a voluntary withdrawal or a disqualification by the court) does not matter, so long as credible sources report that Willis no longer acts as attorney for the prosecution.
|
2024-01-23T15:30:00Z
|
2024-03-31T22:00:00Z
|
2024-04-01T06:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21109
|
Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?
|
Donald Trump won the most delegates in the Iowa caucus on January 15th, 2024, receiving [20 of the 40 available](https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/). Ron DeSantis came in second with nine delegates and Nikki Haley came in [third place](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21005/nikki-haley-2nd-in-the-iowa-caucuses/) winning eight delegates.
The New Hampshire primary is scheduled to be held on January 23, 2024, and [polling](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/) indicates a closer race than that of [Iowa](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/). As of January 17, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Trump at 43.5% in New Hampshire, followed by Nikki Haley at 30.5%.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump wins the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary, according to reports from credible sources.
Fine Print: * Winning the most delegates will be considered to be winning more than other candidates, and in the event Donald Trump ties for the most delegates this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2024-01-17T20:00:00Z
|
2024-01-23T17:00:00Z
|
2024-01-26T16:34:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21093
|
Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?
|
[12 teams](https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-teams-never-won-super-bowl-list-2024) have never won a Super Bowl. Three of them are still in contention to win Super Bowl 58:
- Buffalo Bills
- Detroit Lions
- Houston Texans
In the [divisional round](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39307439/nfl-playoffs-bracket-reset-divisional-round-schedule-afc-nfc), the Lions host the Buccaneers, Texans travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens, and the Bills host the Chiefs.
Here's the [full bracket](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10105200-nfl-playoff-bracket-2024-updated-picture-schedule-after-super-wild-card).
<img src="https://media.bleacherreport.com/image/upload/w_800,h_533,c_fill/v1705427867/a8hrzw0bvct9dijiircg.jpg" alt="Description of the image" />
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, or Houston Texans win [Super Bowl 58](https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl/event-info/).
|
2024-01-17T15:30:00Z
|
2024-02-11T19:00:00Z
|
2024-01-29T04:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21081
|
Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?
|
[Dune: Part Two](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune:_Part_Two) is an upcoming epic science fiction film directed by Denis Villeneuve. It is the second movie of a two-part adaptation of the 1965 novel Dune by Frank Herbert.
The first part, named [Dune](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune_(2021_film)) was released in 2021 and earned $41,011,174 on its opening weekend according to the analytics site [Boxofficemojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3162015233/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs).
The second part is scheduled to be released on March 1, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the domestic box office weekend opening of **Dune: Part Two** as reported by its [page on Boxofficemojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl68715265/) is greater than $41,011,174, the opening of the **Dune (2021)**. If the reported value is less than or equal to $41,011,174 the question will resolve as **No**.
The box office value will be checked at least 10 days after the movie's release date to allow the actual data to be collected. Metaculus admins can further delay the question resolution date if there are reasons to believe that the value might significantly change and affect the resolution.
Fine Print: If the release date is moved to March 20, 2024 or later, the question will be **Annulled**.
Note that the box office of **Dune (2021)** is reported without adjustments for inflation.
The changes in box office of **Dune (2021)** will not affect the resolution criteria of this question. The value $41,011,174 will be used as basis for comparison.
|
2024-01-17T15:30:00Z
|
2024-02-29T23:00:00Z
|
2024-03-05T21:22:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21050
|
Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Party retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Kingswood by-election ?
|
A by-election is expected to take place on 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Kingswood. This follows a [decision](https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/kingswood-election-everything-you-need-9020898) by its MP, Chris Skidmore, to stand down from Parliament. Skidmore, who represents the Conservative Party, resigned in protest at the UK government's decision to issue more oil and gas licences, and ahead of a Parliamentary vote on the matter. Skidmore announced his resignation on 5 January and it was effected three days later. [Full information can be found on the by-election wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Kingswood_by-election)
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves Yes if credible sources report that the candidate representing the Conservative Party has won the [by-election in the UK Parliament constituency of Kingswood](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Kingswood_by-election), currently scheduled for Thursday 15 February 2024. In the case of uncertainty or disputed reporting, an official UK parliamentary or governmental statement of the result will be used to settle the resolution.
Fine Print: If no by-election is held by the end of February 2024, the question is annulled.
|
2024-01-13T16:16:00Z
|
2024-02-16T04:00:00Z
|
2024-02-16T15:19:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21049
|
Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ?
|
A by-election will take place on Thursday 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Wellingborough following a recall petition held in late 2023 that removed the incumbent MP Peter Bone under the terms of the Recall of MPs Act 2015, triggered by his six-week suspension from the House of Commons. [Full information can be found on the by-election wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Wellingborough_by-election)
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves Yes if credible sources report that the candidate representing the Conservative Party has won the [by-election in the UK Parliament constituency of Wellingborough](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-67759402), currently scheduled for Thursday 15 February 2024. In the case of uncertainty or disputed reporting, an official UK parliamentary or governmental statement of the result will be used to settle the resolution.
Fine Print: If no by-election is held by the end of February 2024, the question is annulled.
|
2024-01-13T16:13:00Z
|
2024-02-15T22:00:00Z
|
2024-02-16T15:19:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21005
|
Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?
|
According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4395716-haley-looks-to-defy-expectations-in-iowa/).
> Nikki Haley is looking to outperform expectations in the Iowa caucuses next week in hopes of solidifying her status as the top challenger to former President Trump in the Republican presidential primary.
Polling shows [Trump leading in Iowa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses#Polling), with a tight race for second between Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if Nikki Haley wins the second-most [bound delegates](https://apnews.com/article/how-iowa-caucus-works-2024-democrats-republicans-592ab40b9b9b948c0540f2cf132bab5c) in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses, according to credible reports.
Fine Print: In the event Haley ties for the second-most bound delegates, the question resolves **Yes**.
|
2024-01-10T22:00:00Z
|
2024-01-15T19:00:00Z
|
2024-01-16T17:43:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21003
|
Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?
|
In 2022, the FCC implemented a rule [mandating satellite operators to dispose of satellites within five years after their missions](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/oct/02/fcc-space-debris-fine-dish-network-satellite#:~:text=It%20says%20that%20the%20more,five%20years%20of%20mission%20completion.).
In 2002, DISH launched a satellite agreeing to move it to a "graveyard orbit" post-mission in 2012 to prevent risks. However, in 2022, due to low propellant, the satellite was positioned only 76 miles above the active geostationary orbit, missing its target by 178 km.
In October 2023, the FCC settled an investigation into DISH for "[failure to properly deorbit its EchoStar-7 satellite,](https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-397412A1.pdf)" the first fine of this sort issued by the FCC.
[9,600 satellites](https://sdup.esoc.esa.int/discosweb/statistics/) have been launched into space since the 1950s, and 6,800 are still functioning.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the FCC announces a second space debris enforcement action and this action includes a fine, penalty, or other sort of fee.
|
2024-01-11T19:46:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:00:00Z
|
2025-01-06T16:09:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-21000
|
Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024?
|
The [Harvard Institute of Politics](https://iop.harvard.edu/) conducts political polls in the spring and fall of every year. Biden's approval rating with youth aged 18-to-29 has been as high as 59% in the Spring 2021 poll, and has steadily declined in each subsequent poll, reaching a low of 35% in the Fall 2023 poll that was recently published. The [Harvard Crimson cited concerns](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/12/6/iop-youth-poll-fall-23/) such as climate change, gun control, the war in Ukraine, and the current conflict in Gaza as reasons for decreased support among young voters.
A sufficient decline in turnout by young voters for Biden in 2024 could determine whether or not he wins battleground states in his bid for reelection.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if the Spring 2024 [Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll](https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023) shows that Biden's approval rating among 18-to-29-year-olds is higher than the 35% reported in Fall 2023.
Fine Print: If no poll is conducted in Spring 2024, or if a Biden approval rating is not reported, the question is annulled.
|
2024-01-11T19:56:00Z
|
2024-04-01T23:30:00Z
|
2024-04-18T15:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20919
|
Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?
|
There are three moon lander missions scheduled in early 2024, two by private companies and [one by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Company](https://www.space.com/japan-slim-moon-landing-try-january-2024) (JAXA). Either private landing could potentially represent the [first ever successful private moon landing](https://www.space.com/astrobotic-peregrine-private-moon-lander-risks-reward), following [two previous attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#:~:text=Two%20organizations%20have%20attempted%20but%20failed%20to%20achieve%20soft%20landings%3A%20Israeli%20private%20space%20agency%20SpaceIL%20with%20their%20Beresheet%20spacecraft%2C%20and%20Japanese%20company%20ispace%27s%20Hakuto%2DR%20Mission%201.),
See below for a table with information regarding the missions and their scheduled dates as of January 5, 2024. Note that Intuitive Machines' IM-1 mission was originally scheduled for no earlier than (NET) January 12, 2024, but [was delayed in late December](https://www.space.com/spacex-launch-intuitive-machines-private-moon-lander-delay-february) until mid-February.
| Organization | Mission | Lander Payload | Announced Launch Date (NET) | Announced Land Date |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| [Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) (JAXA) | [Smart Lander for Investigating Moon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon) (SLIM) | [Two small lunar rovers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon#Rovers) | [September 6, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon#Mission) (completed) | January 19, 2024 |
| [Astrobotic Technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrobotic_Technology) | [Peregrine Mission One](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One) | [Five small Mexican Space Agency rovers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One#Lunar_rovers)<br />A small rover from Carnegie Mellon University<br />An array of sensors and instruments<br />[Time capsules](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One#Time_capsules), including cremated human remains and a physical bitcoin. | [January 8, 2024](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/companies-attempt-us-moon-landings-apollo-missions-half-106109930) | [February 23, 2024](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/companies-attempt-us-moon-landings-apollo-missions-half-106109930) |
| [Intuitive Machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intuitive_Machines) | [IM-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova-C#IM-1_mission) | [An array of instruments](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova-C#Payloads) for NASA and others | [Mid-February 2024](https://investors.intuitivemachines.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-machines-im-1-lunar-mission-launch-update) | [Roughly one week after launch](https://spacenews.com/intuitive-machines-delays-first-lunar-lander-launch-to-february/) |
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2024, at least two of the following listed moon missions successfully land on the moon.
* Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)'s [Smart Lander for Investigating the Moon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon) (SLIM)
* Astrobotic Technology's [Peregrine Mission One](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One)
* Intuitive Machine's [IM-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova-C#IM-1_mission)
Fine Print: * For the purposes of this question, a successful landing will be defined as one which results in the lander remaining intact and able to communicate with the Earth, and which does not prevent at least some of its payload from being able to carry out its intended mission.
* For example, a landing that resulted in minor damage to the lander, its systems, or some of its payload, but some of the carried payload/equipment was still able to carry out its intended mission and communicate with Earth, would result in the question resolving as **Yes** (this does not include cases where the lander is destroyed on impact but payloads such as [time capsules](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One#Time_capsules) might survive impact).
* The landers must land before March 1, 2024, 00:00 UTC occurs on Earth. Resolution will be determined based on information published before March 7, 2024, regarding whether the criteria for a successful landing have been met.
|
2024-01-08T16:00:00Z
|
2024-02-20T23:00:00Z
|
2024-02-24T00:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20917
|
Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?
|
The [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) cruise missile is a German-produced air-launched weapon with a declared range of 500+ km and is designed to destroy "hard and deeply buried targets" (HDBT) such as hardened underground bunkers. Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may use it to attempt to destroy the Kerch Bridge, an important logistic path of Russian forces. Due to its long range this missile, upon deployment, could also present a potential threat to the city of Moscow.
As of Oct. 31, 2023, Germany has committed [€17.1 Billion of military support](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) for Ukraine, which made it the second largest donor country after the US. Until this moment, however, Germany hasn't supplied Ukraine with their Taurus missiles despite [explicit requests](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-asks-germany-provide-taurus-long-range-missiles-berlin-2023-05-27/) from the Ukrainian government.
* On 2 January, 2024, the head of the Defense Committee of Germany’s Bundestag parliament, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann [called for the transfer of the Taurus missiles](https://news.yahoo.com/bundestag-mp-calls-immediate-transfer-172600453.html) to Ukraine.
* On 7 January 2024, Markus Söder the Minister-President of Bavaria named Taurus as [the only way out for Germany](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/internationale-politik/id_100315390/markus-soeder-fordert-fuer-ukraine-den-marschflugkoerper-taurus.html) to avoid security problems. Additionally, Joachim Gauck, the former president of Germany [accused the federal government](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ukraine/id_100311874/ukraine-krieg-joachim-gauck-kritisiert-olaf-scholz-fuer-zoegern-bei-taurus.html) of hesitant stance on arms deliveries to Ukraine
* On 17 January 2024 German Bundestag [declined](https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2024/kw03-de-wehrbericht-2022-983206) the proposition to supply Taurus missiles for Ukraine (485 vs 178).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if at any point in time during the year 2024, there are credible reports that Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have at least one Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile or its variant (see the Fine Print for details) or that AFU have launched one.
Alternatively, the question will resolve positively if the missile is unambiguously listed on [the page dedicated to Military support for Ukraine](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992) on the German Federal Government's official site. If this page is unavailable, another page may be used as a resolution source as long as it belongs to the German Federal Government's official site and contains a list of military equipment provided to Ukraine by Germany.
If these criteria weren't met until 1 January 2025, 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.
Fine Print: The missile in possession must be operational, meaning that a model of the missile provided for copying or studying will not trigger the resolution, and neither will a fallen on Ukrainian ground Taurus missile launched by another country.
If Germany supplies Ukraine with another long-range missile, it will qualify as the variant of the Taurus KEPD 350 as long as the following conditions are met:
* The missile is an air-launched cruise missile
* The missile is an air-to-ground missile
* The missile's place of origin is Germany
* The missile's range is at least 400 km (the KEPD 350K-2 variant)
* The missile's warhead is at least 100 kg
The official missile name is not required to include the word "Taurus".
Delivering a similarly capable missile manufactured by a third country (e.g. the [Storm Shadow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow)) will not trigger the resolution even if delivery was done by the German government.
|
2024-02-03T21:48:00Z
|
2024-12-31T11:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T02:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20895
|
Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
|
According to the ISW:
> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent
[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.
[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)
> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a "huge mobilization reserve" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.
> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.
As of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).
Related Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates) (ISW) reports that a second wave of mobilization is underway in Russia. If this event does not happen, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: * For this resolution, "mobilization" is defined as the formal conscription or summoning of reservists by the Russian government, as explicitly recognized and reported by ISW. This includes actions officially declared by the government such as a "partial mobilization." However, this does not include unofficial recruitments often referred to as "[crypto-mobilization](https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/75547/what-is-crypto-mobilization)" or "self-mobilization," or any form of volunteer enlistment. The resolution will rely solely on ISW’s characterization of the mobilization as formally acknowledged by the Russian government.
* If the Institute for the Study of War writes that the next wave of mobilization has not only begun, but has already ended, then this also resolves as Yes.
* ISW will be the sole source used for resolution of this question. If ISW ceases to operate or ceases to publish the relevant updates following the launch of this question, it may resolve as Annulled. Metaculus will determine appropriate resolution based on its assessment of ISW's publications. However, unless ISW’s coverage on the topic is discontinued in this manner, if no official mobilization is reported by ISW before January 1, 2025, then this question will resolve as No.
|
2024-04-23T11:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T09:00:00Z
|
2025-01-16T23:24:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20880
|
Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?
|
In the last year or so, the US government has restricted China's ability to develop cutting edge AI through [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/). However, there exists a loophole: while Chinese AI developers are restricted from physically buying many types of cutting edge AI chips, as well as the machines used to manufacture them, they are not currently restricted from buying [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing) provided by US IaaS firms who possess the exact same chips that are physically export controlled.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the US government issues some form of rule or export control that restricts Chinese firms from accessing via [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing)/infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) at least some of the same chips that they are prevented from purchasing through physical [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/). Yes resolution is triggered when a law is enacted or a [final rule](https://www.federalregister.gov/reader-aids/office-of-the-federal-register-blog/2015/03/when-does-this-rule-go-into-effect) is published that would impose such restrictions, regardless of whether or not the rule takes effect before 2025.
This question resolves as **No** otherwise.
|
2024-01-11T18:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00Z
|
2025-01-17T16:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20878
|
Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?
|
South Africa filed a case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Israel claiming it has violated the [1948 Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide_Convention) against genocide on Friday December 29. The case will be argued [January 11 or 12](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67866342). The allegations are that Israel's actions in Gaza are ["genocidal in character."](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231228-app-01-00-en.pdf) Israel has vowed to defend itself against the allegations. [According to the BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67866342):
>South African government lawyers are preparing for the case to be heard on 11 and 12 January, Clayson Monyela, a spokesperson for South Africa's Department of International Relations and Cooperation, said on X.
>The ICJ, which is based in the Hague in the Netherlands, is the UN's highest court. It settles disputes between states and gives advisory opinions on international legal issues. It does not have the power to bring prosecutions. However, its opinions carry weight with the UN and other international legal bodies.
While ICJ cases [can take years](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africas-genocide-case-israel-sets-high-stakes-106055104#:~:text=The%20case%20will%20likely%20drag%20on%20for%20years.), South Africa is requesting that the ICJ order [provisional measures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provisional_measure_of_protection). The ICJ [describes provisional measures as](https://www.icj-cij.org/index.php/how-the-court-works#:~:text=Then%20there%20are%20provisional%20measures%2C%20interim%20measures%20which%20can%20be%20requested%20by%20the%20applicant%20State%20if%20it%20considers%20that%20the%20rights%20that%20form%20the%20subject%20of%20its%20application%20are%20in%20immediate%20danger.):
>. . . interim measures which can be requested by the applicant State if it considers that the rights that form the subject of its application are in immediate danger.
According to the [ICJ press release](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231229-pre-01-00-en.pdf) announcing the court filing:
>Pursuant to Article 74 of the Rules of Court, “[a] request for the indication of provisional measures shall have priority over all other cases”.
More background on provisional measures can be found in [this Lieber Institute article](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/icj-provisional-measures-order-unprecedented/) discussing the ICJ's provisional orders in Ukraine's case against Russia following the 2022 invasion. All ICJ case documents for South Africa's filing against Israel are [available here](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2024, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) orders provisional measures against Israel.
Fine Print: * For the purposes of this question, a provisional measure against Israel will be one which orders Israel to take some action, including but not limited to:
* Ending or suspending its military campaign in Gaza.
* Taking steps to ensure the safety of civilians.
* Submitting a report to the ICJ.
* If the ICJ orders provisional measures that do not order Israel to take some action, the question will resolve as **No**.
* Provisional measures ordered as part of any ICJ case will count, this question is not limited to the case brought by South Africa.
* The ICJ is not to be confused with the ICC. The ICC is a criminal tribunal that prosecutes individuals. The ICJ is a civil tribunal that hears disputes between countries.
|
2024-01-08T16:00:00Z
|
2024-01-20T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-26T15:40:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20876
|
Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?
|
The Indonesian presidential election is being contested by [Anies Baswedan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anies_Baswedan) (independent), the former governor of Jakarta; [Prabowo Subianto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prabowo_Subianto) (Gerindra), the Minister of Defense; and [Ganjar Pranowo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ganjar_Pranowo) (PDI-P), the former governor of Central Java. According to [Indonesian election law](https://rumahpemilu.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/UU-No.7-Tahun-2017-tentang-Pemilu.pdf), all candidates must register with the General Election Commission (KPU); the period for doing so ended on 14 December, 2023, eliminating the possibility of any other candidates competing.
Indonesian presidential elections are direct, and determined by the popular vote. The law states that if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, then a second round of voting will be held from which all but the two most successful candidates in the first round are to be eliminated. This was the case in 2004 and 2009, after which only two candidates have run (Prabowo and Joko Widodo, the latter of whom won in both 2014 and 2019 but is limited to two terms as President) until now. The first round in 2024 will be held on 14 February, and any second round is to be held on 26 June.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that, following the first round of the presidential election, the results show that none of the three presidential candidates have won 50% or more of the vote and that a runoff will be held.
Fine Print: If reporting is conflicting or unclear this question will wait to resolve until the 15 February-20 March recapitulation (vote summation and verification) period for the electoral results has ended and the outcome is declared by the [General Election Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Elections_Commission) (KPU).
|
2024-01-24T15:30:00Z
|
2024-02-13T17:00:00Z
|
2024-03-06T15:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20791
|
Will a New or Joint "Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record" in NBA History be set in 2024?
|
Two months into the 2023-24 [National Basketball Association](https://www.nba.com/) (NBA) regular season, a number of teams have slumped to a poor record. The Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards and San Antonio Spurs have less than a .200 winning percentage. There has been [some criticism of the Detroit Pistons](https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-fact-or-fiction-are-the-2023-24-detroit-pistons-the-worst-team-ever-to-try-221917107.html) in particular due to [their record-breaking 27-game losing streak](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/39189426/detroit-pistons-set-nba-record-27th-straight-loss), and [chants of "sell the team"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/basketball/67799559). Some have suggested they are one of the worst NBA teams in the league's history.
Ordinarily, the NBA regular season consists of 82 games, and the current worst 82-game regular season record is 9 wins and 73 losses, set by [the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers](https://www.landofbasketball.com/statistics/worst_seasons.htm).
This question asks whether a team will set a new record for the worst NBA 82-game regular season or equal the current record (and thereby jointing holding the record).
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve "Yes" if any NBA team achieves a 2023-24 regular season record of 9 wins and 73 losses (or fewer wins). The question will will resolve "No" if all NBA teams in the 2023-24 regular season achieve at least 10 wins or more.
Fine Print: If the NBA ceases to exist for any reason including due to a scandal or other incident, the question will be Annulled.
|
2023-12-28T20:27:00Z
|
2024-04-14T22:00:00Z
|
2024-03-08T03:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20790
|
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
|
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_and_radiation_accidents_and_incidents):
> "A nuclear and radiation accident is defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as "an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility. Examples include lethal effect to individuals, large radioactivity release to the environment, reactor core melt." The prime example of a "major nuclear accident" is one in which a reactor core is damaged and significant amounts of radioactive isotopes are released, such as in the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 and Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.
The situation regarding Russian control of Ukrainian nuclear reactors, particularly the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), has been a [focal point of concern](https://www.world-nuclear.org/ukraine-information/ukraine-russia-war-and-nuclear-energy.aspx) since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The ZNPP, Europe's largest nuclear plant with six reactors, has been under Russian occupation since the early stages of the invasion in February 2022. The plant came under armed attack in March 2022, marking the first instance of an operating civil nuclear power plant being attacked during an active conflict. This attack led to a projectile hitting a training building and resulted in a fire, but essential equipment and the reactors remained unaffected.
Since the conflict began, the [operation of the reactors has varied](https://www.npr.org/2023/09/06/1197574725/russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-power-plants), with some being taken offline or put online as needed, depending on the stability of external power supplies and conditions around the plants.
> There are six reactors at Zaporizhzhia maintained by Energoatom personnel, according to Kotin, but Russia controls the plant. Those reactors are currently offline. Meanwhile, Ukraine is operating nine reactors generating electricity at three other locations around the country.
In June 2023, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of [plotting to stage an attack on ZNPP](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-accuse-each-other-plotting-imminent-attack-nuclear-station-2023-07-04/).
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if at any time in 2024, [the International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/) reports, in connection with any nuclear power plant within the borders of Ukraine – as they stood in December 2021 – an accident of level 5, 6 or 7 of the [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale).
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2025-01-02T14:46:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20789
|
Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?
|
The [Federal Funds Rate (FFR)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate) is the interest rate at which U.S. depository institutions lend reserve balances to each other overnight. It's a crucial benchmark in financial markets and influences a wide range of market interest rates. As of December 2023, the target FFR is [between 5.25% and 5.50%](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr). The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the FFR, impacting employment and inflation in the U.S. economy. Changes in the FFR directly influence borrowing costs for consumers, businesses, and the government, thereby affecting [overall economic activity and inflation](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/fed-funds-rate)
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves Yes if the most recent [effective federal funds rate](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr) on December 31, 2024 is less than 4%.
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T19:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T14:39:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20786
|
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?
|
Former President Donald Trump [has been charged with 91 felony counts](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/) in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is [scheduled to go to trial in March 2024](https://www.axios.com/2023/07/27/trump-2024-presidential-election-legal-trials). The trial most likely to go to court last is the Georgia election interference case, which does not yet have a scheduled court date, but Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis [has requested an August 2024 trial date](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/11/22/when-trump-trials-2024-schedule/71637316007/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, any court in the United States convicts Donald Trump of committing a felony.
Fine Print: * It resolves as **Yes** upon conviction by any US court, the outcome of later appeals or legal proceedings is immaterial.
* Any felony conviction is sufficient, it need to not be related to an existing indictment.
* This question does not require sentencing to be completed, only a felony conviction is required.
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-11-04T23:00:00Z
|
2024-05-30T21:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20785
|
Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?
|
[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. So far Starship has undergone [two "integrated flight tests"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration.
SpaceX eventually [plans to "catch"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk [has dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) "Mechazilla" and refers to its manueverable arms as "chopsticks", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. In an [interview in October 2023](https://www.space.com/spacex-elon-musk-starship-expectations-second-flight), Musk said:
>If we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, SpaceX attempts to catch the first stage of Starship, the Super Heavy booster, with [the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video).
Fine Print: * A catch attempt will be considered one where the Super Heavy booster makes contact with the tower or the catching arms ("chopsticks") during its landing attempt while the booster is intact.
* So an aborted or inaccurate attempt, where it approaches the tower but does not make contact, will not count.
* The booster exploding before contacting the tower, resulting in debris coming into contact with the tower, does not count.
* The attempt need not be successful, and even an immediate explosion of the booster upon contacting the tower will still be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.
* The catch attempt need not occur as part of an integrated flight test (where the second stage is stacked on top of the booster). However, the booster must reach an altitude of at least 10 kilometers before attempting a landing to qualify.
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-10-13T12:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20784
|
Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?
|
The refugee admissions cap was [set to a historic low](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/us-refugee-cap-fy21/index.html) of 15,000 for fiscal year 2021 by the Trump administration, following a steadily declining admissions cap after Trump took office. The Biden administration raised the cap for FY 2021 to 62,500 but [fell far short of that number](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/biden-administration-falls-short-of-fiscal-year-2021-us-refugee-admissions-cap-.html) with 11,411 refugees admitted in FY 2021. The Biden administration raised the cap to 125,000 in fiscal year 2022 and the cap has remained there since, however actual refugee admissions have been slow to increase, reaching 60,014 in FY 2023.
Describing the reasons actual refugee admissions remained low in 2021, [Vox reported](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22777209/immigration-refugee-cap-biden-afghan-resettlement):
>There are legitimate reasons why the recent resettlement numbers are so low. The US government and refugee agencies have been primarily focused on resettling Afghans who fled their home country amid the US withdrawal. And the entire refugee apparatus — from the federal officials who assess refugee claims to the agencies that help with resettlement — shrank significantly during the Trump administration due to severe funding cuts.
>
>. . .
>
>Since agencies’ federal funding is tied to the refugee cap, many saw their budgets decrease significantly under Trump, forcing them to dramatically scale back their operations. Soerens said that World Relief closed eight of its offices over the past five years, some of which had been operating since the 1970s. That involved laying off personnel, many of whom had decades in institutional knowledge.
The US [Refugee Processing Center](https://www.wrapsnet.org/admissions-and-arrivals/) (RPC), within the US Department of State, reports refugee admission figures. According to their data, the US has not admitted over 100,000 refugees in a single fiscal year since 1994. See the charts below summarizing this data (see [here](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/us-refugee-admissions.html) for code used to generate the charts).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in fiscal year 2024, refugee admissions to the United States exceed 100,000 according to data published by the US [Refugee Processing Center](https://www.wrapsnet.org/admissions-and-arrivals/) (RPC). Note that this question asks for US fiscal year 2024 admissions, which runs from October 2023 to September 2024, not calendar year admissions.
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-09-30T22:00:00Z
|
2024-10-06T11:35:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20783
|
Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?
|
[Ali Khamenei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei) has been Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989. His predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader of Iran, had formally selected a successor in 1985, four years before his death in 1989. However, after falling out with his chosen successor he selected Ali Khamenei in 1989. Ali Khamenei [has yet to publicly name a successor](https://agsiw.org/khameneis-succession-dilemma-to-name-or-not-to-name-a-successor-designate/).
In late 2022 and early 2023, [large scale protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahsa_Amini_protests) and unrest took place in Iran, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after she was arrested for violating the hijab law. The protests [had largely ended](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/irans-protests-crushed-mahsa-aminis-death-still-felt-year-later-world-rcna105003) after the spring of 2023.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.
Fine Print: * To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be the Supreme Leader or be deposed, including fleeing the country or being held captive by an opposing group. Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T04:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20781
|
Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?
|
Since Elon Musk concluded his purchase of Twitter on [October 22nd, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk), the company (now rebranded to "X") has had its fair share of scandals, such as the [removal](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/20/23690820/twitter-verified-blue-checkmark-legacy-elon-musk) of blue checkmarks from legacy users and [ad boycotts](https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/29/23981928/elon-musk-ad-boycott-go-fuck-yourself-destroy-x) that have significantly hurt the company financially.
Furthermore, in November 2022, Musk [told](https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-tells-twitter-staff-bankruptcy-isnt-out-question-platformer-2022-11-10/) his employees that bankruptcy is not out of the question. Still, Musk has [mentioned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024) ambitious plans for turning X into more than just a social media app; he also aims for it to be a financial app, with updates expected in 2024. Musk [remarked](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024), "You won’t need a bank account... it would blow my mind if we don’t have that rolled out by the end of next year."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources announce that X has declared bankruptcy before January 1st, 2025.
Fine Print: * X will be considered to have filed for bankruptcy if X Corp. or a parent company files for bankruptcy, including [Chapter 7 (liquidation) or Chapter 11 (reorganization)](https://www.uscourts.gov/services-forms/bankruptcy/bankruptcy-basics) bankruptcy.
* This includes companies that merge with or acquire [X Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X_Corp.), for example if X Corp. merges with another company and the merged company later declares bankruptcy, or if a company acquires X Corp. and the acquiring company later declares bankruptcy.
* If X Corp. changes its name or its structure (for example by selling off a portion of the company but continuing to operate as X Corp.) this question will resolve according to the company that controls the social media platform currently known as X.
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T04:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20780
|
Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?
|
Specific legislation limiting LLMs has not been introduced in the U.S. Congress as of now. However, the ongoing discussions and emerging concerns in various sectors, including healthcare, indicate a growing awareness and potential for legislative action in the near future.
Note: There is no formal definition for LLMs, though [one article](https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-speed-up-training-for-large-language-models-81ffb30c36b2) describes them as follows:
>Typically, a large language model contains more than 100 billion parameters and is trained using advanced algorithms on a large corpus.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, a bill is introduced in either the US House or US Senate which would impose one of the following restrictions on large language models or products using large language models.
* Forbids their creation
* Sets limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with.
* Prevents their use for certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
* Restricts the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restricts US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
* The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry. For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country. Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
* An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.
Resolution will be determined according to reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) and keyword searches of [GovTrack.us](GovTrack.us).
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-03-19T16:40:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20779
|
Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?
|
The [2024 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Parties will select their candidates in 2024. The current front runners for the Democratic Party and Republican party are [Joe Biden](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/) and [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/), respectively.
Prior to the 2020 presidential election, [two of the three scheduled debates took place between Trump and Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_debates). The second scheduled debate was cancelled after Trump contracted COVID-19 and refused a proposal for the debate to take place virtually. As of December 21, 2023, Donald Trump [has not participated](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/18/donald-trump-nikki-haleys-gop-debate-takeaways/71839179007/) in any of the Republican primary debates, and was ineligible to participate due to [not signing the loyalty pledge](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4148039-heres-where-2024-republicans-stand-on-the-rncs-loyalty-pledge/) to support the eventual nominee.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a live debate for presidential candidates, including a virtual debate.
Fine Print: * A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to one another in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.
* The debate need not complete its scheduled duration, it is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-10-08T22:00:00Z
|
2024-06-28T01:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20776
|
Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?
|
As of the end of 2023, the legal landscape for cannabis in the United States has undergone significant changes, marking a departure from previous years. Recreational marijuana is now legal in 24 states and the District of Columbia. This represents a substantial increase from the earlier status when it was legal in only 9 states and DC. Additionally, medical marijuana has been legalized in 40 states and the District of Columbia.
Will this changing landscape at the state level influence federal policy? The Schedule I classification, as defined by the Controlled Substances Act, is reserved for substances with a high potential for abuse, no currently accepted medical use in treatment in the United States, and a lack of accepted safety for use under medical supervision. Given the growing acceptance and legalization of cannabis at the state level, there is increasing debate and speculation about potential changes to its federal classification.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2025, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. If it is later reclassified as a schedule I drug, the question still resolves Yes.
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T07:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T04:49:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20775
|
Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?
|
[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. [SpaceX describes Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as "the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable."
So far Starship has undergone [two "integrated flight tests"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration. The first test reached an altitude of 39 kilometers before exploding prior to stage separation, and also causing significant pad damage during liftoff that slowed progress toward the second test launch. The second launch achieved stage separation and reached an altitude of roughly 150 kilometers, though both the booster and second stage were destroyed in flight due to anomalies.
Note that both the [first](https://spacenews.com/starship-lifts-off-on-first-integrated-test-flight-breaks-apart-minutes-later/#:~:text=This%20test%20flight%20was%20not%20designed%20to%20reach%20orbit%20but%20instead%20send%20Starship%20on%20a%20long%20suborbital%20trajectory%2C%20splashing%20down%20near%20Hawaii%2090%20minutes%20after%20liftoff.) and [second](https://spacelaunchnow.me/launch/starship-integrated-flight-test-2/#:~:text=The%20second%20stage%20will%20follow%20a%20suborbital%20trajectory%20and%20perform%20an%20unpowered%20splashdown%20approximately%20100%20km%20off%20the%20northwest%20coast%20of%20Kauai%20(Hawaii).) integrated flight tests were suborbital trajectories.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in the calendar year 2024, SpaceX's Starship reaches orbit. Note that "orbit" is often used in a loose manner but this question has a specific definition of orbit in the fine print below.
Fine Print: Reaching orbit does not require that a spacecraft complete a full orbit. A spacecraft will be considered to have reached orbit if it successfully reaches an altitude of 100 kilometers above the Earth (the [Kármán line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line)) without breaking up **AND** for any period of time while at an altitude of 100 kilometers or more achieves at least one of the following (such as before intentionally deorbiting):
* A trajectory with an altitude at [perigee](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/perigee) of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth.
* [Escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_velocity).
* A trajectory with an altitude at [apogee](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/apogee) of at least 300,000 kilometers above the Earth.
Reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that Starship achieved orbit are sufficient unless there is reason to believe that the source is using the term "orbit" colloquially or that the above criteria were not met.
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20774
|
Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?
|
In its article [Q&A: Everything You Should Know About Government Shutdowns](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns) the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes government shutdowns as follows:
>Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual funding appropriations passed by Congress. Every year, Congress must pass, and the President must sign budget legislation for the next fiscal year, consisting of 12 appropriations bills, one for each Appropriations subcommittee. Congress has not yet enacted any of the 12 bills for FY 2023 that make up the discretionary spending budget and has instead been funding the government through a CR that was enacted at the end of September. In a “shutdown,” federal agencies must discontinue all non-essential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law. Essential services continue to function, as do mandatory spending programs.
>. . .
>Since Congress introduced the modern budget process in 1976, there have been 20 “funding gaps,” including the 2018-2019 shutdown and the one in January 2018, when funds were not appropriated for at least one day. (The hours-long lapse in appropriations in February 2018, though sometimes characterized as a shutdown, did not result in federal employee furloughs.) However, before 1980, the government did not shut down but rather continued normal operations through six funding gaps. Since 1981, 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer have occurred, mostly over a weekend when government operations were only minimally affected.
>
>There have now been four “true” shutdowns where operations were affected for more than one business day. The first two happened in the winter of 1995-1996 when President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress were unable to agree on spending levels and the government shut down twice, for a total of 26 days. The third was in 2013 when a House and Senate standoff over funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) resulted in a 16-day shutdown. The fourth shutdown in December 2018 and January 2019, technically only a partial shutdown because five of the 12 appropriations had previously been enacted, centered on a dispute over border wall funding and was the longest-lasting shutdown at 35 days.
The History, Art & Archives of the US House of Representatives [provides a list](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Shutdown/Government-Shutdowns/) of funding gaps and whether or not they included shutdowns. The US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) maintains [information about shutdown furloughs](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#Shutdown-Furlough) as well as [shutdown contingency plans for agencies](https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-for-agencies/agency-contingency-plans/).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that at least some portions of the US federal government have ceased some operations or undergone "shutdown" as the result of a funding gap or missed funding deadline. For the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a [shutdown furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/) of some federal employees (for example, the [brief February 9, 2018](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/08/trump-administration-advises-federal-agencies-prepare-limited-government-shutdown/321883002/) shutdown would not count).
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2025-01-04T01:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20773
|
Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?
|
The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge), also known as Kerch Bridge, connects the peninsula of Crimea with Russia's Krasnodar Krai region. It is properly two linked bridges in parallel; one bridge carries a roadway and the other a railway. The bridge is a potential military objective as a major logistics route for Russian forces in Crimea and adjacent portions of southern Ukraine.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if third-party [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Crimean Bridge:
* has been made impassable to effectively all automobile traffic OR to effectively all rail traffic
* for any period of at least 168 hours ending before January 1, 2025
* via physical destruction, obstruction, or damage from any source.
For the purposes of this question, physical damage or obstruction of the immediate approaches to the bridge, such that it is effectively impassable to through traffic, is considered to "knock out" the bridge itself
|
2024-03-31T19:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
2024-12-25T05:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20771
|
Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?
|
Mike Johnson, elected as the Speaker of the House of Representatives in late October 2023, is set to serve in this role through at least early January 2025. This tenure will include overseeing the House as it votes to formally accept the results of the 2024 election. Johnson, a Republican representative from Louisiana, succeeded Kevin McCarthy after his removal and became the fourth nominee for the speaker's role within the GOP. His appointment was met with various reactions, reflecting the political climate and the anticipation of the House's direction under his leadership.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Mike Johnson continuously holds the position of Speaker of the US House of Representatives until the end of 2024. Conversely, the resolution will be **No** if Mike Johnson is no longer Speaker of the House at any point in 2024 for any reason, including but not limited to resignation, retirement, election defeat, loss of majority party status, a vote of no confidence, expulsion, impeachment and conviction, disqualification, death, or incapacity. The determination of the resolution will be based on reports by credible sources.
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T18:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T04:51:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-20770
|
Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?
|
Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia [in 1993](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict), following a [lengthy war for independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean_War_of_Independence). Independence was followed by a [major war between the two nations in 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict#Major_combat_phase_(1998%E2%80%932000)) and ongoing conflict until the two sides [announced a peace declaration in 2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict#2018_Eritrea%E2%80%93Ethiopia_summit).
However, in October of 2023 the Ethiopian president raised concerns of a renewal of conflict when he discussed the importance of landlocked Ethiopia securing access to a port. [According to Africanews](https://www.africanews.com/2023/11/14/ethiopian-pm-affirms-no-plans-for-invasion-over-red-sea-ports-access//):
>In a televised speech on October 13, Abiy said that landlocked Ethiopia "is a nation whose existence is tied to the Red Sea", a key waterway for global trade.
>
>He said Africa's second most populous country needed access to a port, adding: "If we plan to live together in peace, we have to find a way to mutually share with each other in a balanced manner."
>
>Since then, Abiy has sought to alleviate regional fears, telling a military parade two weeks later that "Ethiopia will not pursue its interests through war. We are committed to mutual interest through dialogue and negotiation."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 100 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the militaries of Ethiopia and Eritrea caused by confrontation with the overtly flagged military of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.
Fine Print: * Armed forces under government control will qualify, but rebel groups and groups supported by the government financially or otherwise will not.
* Deaths do not need to occur at the same time, or among the same military force, and all deaths among members of the armed forces of either military occurring in calendar year 2024 will count.
* If a range is provided, the lower end of the range must be 100 or more to qualify. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.
* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-07T13:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.