id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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meta-22547 | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | When it comes to separatism and Moldova, most will likely recall Transnistria, which is controlled by separatists and elements of the Russian Federation armed forces since the 1990s.
However, another autonomous region of Moldova, [Gagauzia](https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2022/walking-the-tightrope-towards-the-eu/4-ga... | 2024-04-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-05-31T21:59:00Z | 2024-05-09T06:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-22541 | Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024? | [Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) is a platform for benchmarking large language models (LLMs) through anonymous, randomized conversations with human raters. The models are then ranked on a public leaderboard based on their "Arena Elo" scores.
As large language models gain more impressive capabi... | 2024-04-27T14:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T01:00:00Z | 2025-01-17T00:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22534 | Will the US Senate pass a bill that intends to ban or force the sale of TikTok before May 1, 2024? | There has been a [lengthy debate](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/09/what-happened-to-the-tiktok-ban-00120434) around TikTok and the potential security risk from the app due to its ownership by ByteDance, a company [incorporated in the Cayman Islands and based in China](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/beijing... | 2024-04-23T15:00:00Z | 2024-04-30T22:00:00Z | 2024-04-24T01:43:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-22532 | Will a limited access channel to the Port of Baltimore be opened at the site of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse before May 1, 2024? | The Francis Scott Key Bridge, a major bridge over the Patapsco River, which flows into the Chesapeake Bay, [collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_collapse) on March 26, 2024. The collapse resulted in the [closure of the Port of Baltimore](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/26/business/baltimore-por... | 2024-04-23T15:00:00Z | 2024-04-30T22:00:00Z | 2024-04-25T12:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-22526 | Will Mike Johnson be Speaker of the House on May 20, 2024? | Republicans in the House of Representatives began the 118th Congress with a majority of 222 to 212, however due to resignations the majority has shrunk to [216 seats to 213 Democratic seats](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress#Party_summary), the latest being Mike Gallagher's resignation, which [... | 2024-04-23T15:00:00Z | 2024-05-19T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-20T16:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-22525 | Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024? | After the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in 2022, almost $300bn of Russian sovereign assets were frozen in Western countries. There is a heated debate about whether to seize those assets, and transfer funds to help Ukraine in the war, with arguments both [in fav... | 2024-04-26T13:00:00Z | 2024-12-28T09:00:00Z | 2025-01-14T19:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22470 | Will Joe Biden have a polling lead over Donald Trump on May 20, 2024? | The [2024 US Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) will take place on November 5, 2024. Joe Biden of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party have each [secured enough delegates](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/primary-elections-georg... | 2024-04-23T15:00:00Z | 2024-05-19T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-20T18:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22465 | Will President Biden make an international trip between April 24 and May 20, 2024? | United States President Joe Biden has made [16 international trips](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_presidential_trips_made_by_Joe_Biden) during his presidency. He has yet to make an international trip in 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report t... | 2024-04-23T15:00:00Z | 2024-05-20T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-21T14:26:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22459 | Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on May 20, 2024 than the 2011-2020 average? | Antarctic sea ice is a vital component of the Earth's climate system, typically covering an area of more than 18 million square kilometers at its annual maximum extent.
During the summer in the southern hemisphere, sea ice is at a minimum. In February 2023, Antarctic sea ice levels hit [new record lows](https://www.b... | 2024-04-23T15:00:00Z | 2024-05-19T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-21T14:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22415 | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | The commencement of Donald Trump's [trial in the so-called "hush money" case](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4589001-5-things-to-know-ahead-of-trumps-hush-money-trial/) marks a historic moment as he becomes the first former U.S. president to face criminal charges in court. The trial centers around allegat... | 2024-04-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-06-15T06:00:00Z | 2024-05-21T14:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22403 | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | In a significant escalation of regional tensions, [Iran launched a coordinated aerial attack targeting Israeli territory on April 13, 2024](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-tries-to-calibrate-response-against-israel-after-deadly-bombing-abb38b57). This action by Iran came as a direct retaliation for an [Israe... | 2024-04-13T22:04:00Z | 2024-05-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-05-01T18:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22394 | Will an interest rate cut below current levels occur or increase in likelihood for June following the May 1, 2024 Federal Open Market Committee meeting? | The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Rese... | 2024-04-16T15:00:00Z | 2024-04-30T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-01T20:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22391 | Will the United Nations Security Council pass a resolution related to the Gaza War between April 23 and May 20, 2024? | The [United Nations (UN) Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council) is a UN body responsible for matters of [international peace and security](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/). The [council's membership](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/current-members) consists of fi... | 2024-04-16T15:00:00Z | 2024-05-19T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-21T14:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22390 | Will Donald Trump file a new writ petition or application for stay with the US Supreme Court between April 16 and May 19, 2024? | The unprecedented legal and constitutional questions raised in Donald Trump's various cases have resulted in frequent appeals to the US Supreme Court to challenge or seek relief from lower court decisions. These actions are part of the broader legal and political narrative surrounding Trump's legal disputes, including ... | 2024-04-16T15:00:00Z | 2024-05-19T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-20T16:08:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22385 | Will SpaceX's fourth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers before May 20, 2024? | [SpaceX's first integrated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_Integrated_Flight_Test) took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad [suffered significant damage](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starshi... | 2024-04-16T15:00:00Z | 2024-05-20T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-20T16:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22383 | Will the Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes domestic opening box office set a new franchise record? | The *[Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_the_Planet_of_the_Apes)* is an upcoming movie scheduled to be released on May 10, 2024. The movie will be the fourth installment of the [rebooted *Planet of the Apes* series](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_of_the_Apes#Reboot_film_se... | 2024-04-16T15:00:00Z | 2024-05-09T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-14T02:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22382 | Will Joe Biden issue his 11th veto before May 17, 2024? | On March 20, 2023, Joe Biden [issued his first veto](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/03/20/message-to-the-house-of-representatives-presidents-veto-of-h-j-res-30/), returning [House Joint Resolution 30](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/118/hjres30) (H. J. Res. 30) to the House of... | 2024-04-16T15:00:00Z | 2024-05-16T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-03T17:27:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-22308 | Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire deal before May 16, 2024? | Since the beginning of the [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#), [one temporary ceasefire has been reached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_ceasefire). The ceasefire began on November 24, 2023, and was scheduled to last for four days, but was extended for t... | 2024-04-16T15:00:00Z | 2024-05-15T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-16T15:25:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22304 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N... | 2024-04-12T20:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-08T19:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22302 | Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $950 on any single day before May 21, 2024? | [Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-e... | 2024-04-16T15:00:00Z | 2024-05-20T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-20T20:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22301 | Will a version of Claude be the top model on chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on May 16, 2024? | Chatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/). It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems.
Resolution Criteria: The question will re... | 2024-04-16T15:00:00Z | 2024-05-15T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-16T16:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22299 | Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate? | The [Transparent Replications Project](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in Nature or Scienc... | 2024-04-12T20:00:00Z | 2024-04-26T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-06T14:50:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-22298 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | The [Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023–present)#27_October) commenced on October 27, 2023 in response to a [Hamas-led attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand kil... | 2024-04-11T20:00:00Z | 2024-05-31T22:00:31.900000Z | 2024-05-13T18:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-22245 | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | In US presidential elections, Nebraska is unusual in that it does not automatically award all of its Electoral College votes to the state-wide winner. Instead, it awards two of its five electoral votes to the state-wide winner, and one vote to the winner of each of its three Congressional districts. Nebraska has used t... | 2024-04-16T11:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T12:00:00Z | 2024-11-06T16:29:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22168 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | [The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
As of April 7 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](... | 2024-04-12T11:00:00Z | 2024-10-21T11:00:00Z | 2024-08-23T19:18:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-22161 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | On April 1, 2024, an Israeli airstrike [targeted the Iranian embassy](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240) in Damascus, Syria, resulting in significant casualties including the deaths of top Iranian commanders.
In the aftermath, the United States has incr... | 2024-04-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-05-01T06:59:00Z | 2024-05-01T17:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22149 | Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024? | The [Powerball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powerball) is a US lottery operated by the [Multi-State Lottery Association](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-State_Lottery_Association). Drawings are held [every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday](https://ialottery.com/Pages/Games/DrawingTimes.aspx). The [last time the ja... | 2024-04-05T22:17:00Z | 2024-04-13T20:00:00Z | 2024-04-07T06:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-22148 | Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament? | During the 2023-2024 season, Iowa senior Caitlin Clark became the [top scorer in college basketball history](https://bigten.org/news/2024/3/3/womens-basketball-caitlin-clark-becomes-the-ncaas-all-time-leading-scorer.aspx#:~:text=%E2%80%93%20Iowa%20senior%20Caitlin%20Clark%20scored,left%20in%20the%20second%20quarter.).
... | 2024-04-05T20:25:00Z | 2024-04-07T18:00:00Z | 2024-04-07T21:28:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22146 | Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024? | US Republican Senator Mitt Romney has [ruled out](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/29/mitt-romney-vote-trump-biden/72787644007/) voting for the presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, but has to date [stopped short](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/p... | 2024-04-11T13:00:00Z | 2024-10-31T12:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T12:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22142 | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024? | After two slow decades at the beginning of the 21st century, the rate of missions to the Moon [has significantly accelerated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#21st_century_uncrewed_soft_landings_and_attempts). Two missions have already landed on the Moon in 2024 and many more are planned.
One of them was Int... | 2024-05-18T11:00:00Z | 2024-12-30T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T23:43:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-22140 | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States.
The election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the [Electoral College](https:/... | 2024-04-10T12:00:00Z | 2024-11-04T04:00:00Z | 2025-01-07T20:19:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-22050 | Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024? | [Cherry blossoms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_blossom) are often considered the unofficial national flower of Japan, and the spring blooming of the cherry blossoms is a [significant tourist attraction](https://www.japan.travel/en/au/experience/cherry-blossoms/). [According to Our World in Data](https://ourworl... | 2024-03-27T17:00:00Z | 2024-04-03T22:00:00Z | 2024-04-04T19:44:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21972 | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | [The Walt Disney Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Walt_Disney_Company) is facing a [proxy fight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_fight), as two investment firms are seeking board seats at the upcoming [April 3, 2024 shareholder meeting](https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/disney-date-2024-shareholder-meetin... | 2024-03-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-04-03T13:00:00Z | 2024-04-03T21:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21971 | Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case? | Following a [$464 million civil fraud judgment](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-fraud-trial/?id=103642561) against Donald Trump, the former President has [sought to appeal](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-appeals-355-million-ruling-144615752.html) the outcome of the trial. However, his pursuit of suc... | 2024-04-02T13:57:00Z | 2024-11-05T07:00:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21867 | Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures? | On 13 February 2024, the $95-billion overseas aid bill passed the US Senate in a 70-29 vote; however, the US Speaker Mike Johnson refused to say he would bring the bill to the floor of the House.
Congress members may bypass the Speaker's will by filing a [discharge petition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_pe... | 2024-03-14T20:41:00Z | 2024-12-31T11:00:00Z | 2024-05-15T04:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21864 | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | A March 7, 2024, [VentureBeat article](https://venturebeat.com/ai/nist-staffers-revolt-against-potential-appointment-of-effective-altruist-ai-researcher-to-us-ai-safety-institute/) claimed that AI safety researcher [Paul Christiano](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Christiano_(researcher)) was expected to be appointe... | 2024-03-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-03-31T22:00:00Z | 2024-04-01T06:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21860 | Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024? | Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded, neobrokers like [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/gb/en/) or [Freetrade](https://freetrade.io/) have cha... | 2024-05-19T11:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T05:01:00Z | 2025-01-14T08:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21796 | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | On March 7, the House Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously advanced two pieces legislation both on a 50-0 vote - the ["Protecting Americans’ Data from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2024"](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7520?s=1&r=1) (H.R. 7520) and the ["Protecting Americans from Foreign Adve... | 2024-03-08T23:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T11:00:00Z | 2024-04-24T15:13:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21792 | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | [Territorial disputes over the South China Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea) have led to high tensions between China and a number of regional countries, including the Philippines. On March 5, 2024, [Chinese and Philippine military vessels collided](https://apnews.com/articl... | 2024-03-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-03-31T22:00:00Z | 2024-03-23T00:10:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21789 | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Haiti has seen [significant unrest recently](https://apnews.com/article/haiti-violence-prison-break-curfew-105ca137aa337b9e6681cf87add9a5c1), as gangs have freed thousands of prisoners from prisons and attempted to seize control of Haiti's main international airport.
Haiti's Acting Prime Minister, Ariel Henry, has fac... | 2024-03-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-03-12T22:00:00Z | 2024-03-14T03:21:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21774 | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are both running for the Republican Party nomination for the 2024 US Presidential election. Traditionally defeated candidates for the nomination will endorse the party's candidate, [however Nikki Haley has cast doubt on weather she would](https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/17642948311... | 2024-03-06T00:44:00Z | 2024-11-04T12:00:00Z | 2024-05-22T20:49:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21611 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025? | Spanish democracy has a mechanism where the president can call a [snap election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snap_election#Spain), described in Section 115 of the [Spanish constitution](https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/documents/constitucion_inglescorregido.pdf). The [last election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spa... | 2024-03-23T16:04:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-07T20:16:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21550 | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States.
The election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the [electoral college](https:/... | 2024-03-11T14:20:00Z | 2024-11-04T01:00:00Z | 2025-01-07T20:15:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21546 | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | On February 19, 2024, Houthi rebels in Yemen struck the *M/V Rubymar* - a Belize-flagged, UK-registered, and Lebanese-operated open-hatch general cargo ship - with ballistic missiles whilst it was operating in the Gulf of Aden. The ship sustained major damage, however the crew managed to anchor the ship before [escapin... | 2024-02-28T15:30:00Z | 2024-03-29T12:00:00Z | 2024-03-02T16:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21493 | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | The [96th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/96th_Academy_Awards) ceremony is scheduled for 10 March 2024.
Currently Christopher Nolan's [Oppenheimer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oppenheimer_(film)) biopic has the most nominations (13) followed by [Poor Things](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poor_Things_(f... | 2024-02-29T15:30:00Z | 2024-03-10T11:00:00Z | 2024-03-11T16:13:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21490 | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | [Sir Lindsay Hoyle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindsay_Hoyle) is a former Labour MP and the current speaker of the House of Commons in the UK. Unlike in the US, the speaker of the House of Commons in the UK is not a member of either party and is conventionally strictly non-partisan.
On the 21st of February 2024, h... | 2024-02-22T01:00:00Z | 2024-03-01T00:01:00Z | 2024-03-01T00:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21489 | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | President Biden has faced significant criticism from conservatives, and from [liberals as well](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/15/biden-border-immigration-00141388), regarding his handling of the border. Illegal border crossings hit an [all-time high](https://apnews.com/article/immigration-border-crossings-mexic... | 2024-02-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T23:00:00Z | 2024-03-11T16:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21488 | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | [Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-e... | 2024-02-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-03-28T22:00:00Z | 2024-03-29T20:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21487 | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Nikki Haley remains the only major candidate opposing Donald Trump for the nomination to be the Republican Party's candidate for president in the 2024 US election. As of February 21, 2024, [political analysis website 538 shows](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/) Haley with a ... | 2024-02-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-03-14T22:00:00Z | 2024-03-06T15:03:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21486 | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | As per the Olympic Committee’s [recommendations](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/strict-eligibility-conditions-in-place-as-ioc-eb-approves-individual-neutral-athletes-ains-for-the-olympic-games-paris-2024) from earlier this year, Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to participate in the 2024 Games as long as ... | 2024-04-03T16:34:00Z | 2024-08-11T23:00:00Z | 2024-08-12T13:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21469 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Though it does not contain an explicit procedure for expulsion, according to an [analysis by Just Security](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/) NATO member states can by unanimous agreement, effectively expel a member state for material breach of the treaty:
Should the conditions for ... | 2024-02-21T18:26:00Z | 2024-12-31T17:11:44.255000Z | 2025-01-06T20:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21439 | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | [Indian farmers are marching on Delhi in protest](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-68271364) as they attempt to persuade the government to meet [their demands](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/13/india-farmers-march-what-are-their-demands-why-is-govt-blocking-roads) for better pay. One of their key demand... | 2024-02-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-03-31T22:00:00Z | 2024-04-04T14:26:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21438 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | The [Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023–present)#27_October) commenced on October 27, 2023 in response to a [Hamas-led attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel)l on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand ki... | 2024-02-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-03-11T11:00:00Z | 2024-03-13T02:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21418 | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | [United States of America v. Donald J. Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(election_obstruction_case)?useskin=vector) is a pending federal criminal case in which former president Donald Trump is accused of, among other things, obstruction of an official proceeding, and conspiracy t... | 2024-02-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-03-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-02-28T22:09:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21406 | [Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII? | [Super Bowl LVIII](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVIII) is the 58th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2023 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of [Super Bowl LIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIV) (which th... | 2024-02-08T19:58:00Z | 2024-02-11T22:00:00Z | 2024-02-12T03:53:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21405 | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | [Ariel Henry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariel_Henry) has been Acting Prime Minister of Haiti since he was [appointed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57910829) by former president [Jovenel Moïse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jovenel_Mo%C3%AFse), who was assassinated on July 7, 2021, shortly after appo... | 2024-02-09T18:09:00Z | 2024-03-31T22:00:00Z | 2024-03-11T14:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21394 | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | The Houthis of Yemen have been attacking surface ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait with missiles and drones for weeks now, but a new potentially important target is starting to receive increased attention by both the international community and the Houthis. A network of cables, which transfers approximately [17 percent... | 2024-02-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-03-14T22:58:00Z | 2024-03-15T20:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21354 | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | The most serious attack occurred at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, Germany. Five of the hostage takers were killed, along with eleven members of the Israeli Olympic Team and one West German policeman.
At the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, a bombing at the Centennial Olympic Park resulted in one death and over 1... | 2024-02-09T18:25:00Z | 2024-08-11T21:59:00Z | 2024-08-11T23:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21320 | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbolla... | 2024-02-02T14:38:00Z | 2024-12-31T14:34:48Z | 2024-09-23T16:49:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21306 | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | The [2023 Atlantic hurricane season](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-ranks-4th-for-most-named-storms-in-year#:~:text=The%20above%2Dnormal%202023%20Atlantic,in%20a%20year%20since%201950.), concluding on November 30, stood out due to exceptionally warm Atlantic sea temperatures and a pote... | 2024-02-03T21:23:00Z | 2024-12-01T00:00:00Z | 2024-12-08T06:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21280 | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | On Monday January 29, 2024, the United States [reported](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3659809/3-us-service-members-killed-others-injured-in-jordan-following-drone-attack/) that three soldiers were killed and over 40 injured in Jordan in a drone attack. On January 30, President Biden [stated... | 2024-01-31T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-06T23:00:00Z | 2024-02-02T21:38:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21274 | Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election? | In early January 2024, Rep. Bill Johnson communicated to the Governor of Ohio that he would be vacating his congressional seat effective of the 21st of January 2024 in order to take up position as the 10th President of Youngstown State University.
On the 4th of January, [Governor DeWine announced ] (https://governor.... | 2024-01-31T15:58:00Z | 2024-06-12T03:59:00Z | 2024-06-12T15:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21264 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025? | [Article 5](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20Parties%20agree%20that%20an,by%20Article%2051%20of%20the) of the North Atlantic treaty outlines the terms of members' "collective self defense":
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North... | 2024-01-30T22:58:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2025-01-04T03:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21256 | Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion? | The heavyweight matchup is scheduled to take place on 18 May 2024 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This fight will be for the [undisputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undisputed_championship_(boxing)) heavyweight champion. Both fighters are currently undefeated in their professional careers.
According to Wikipedia:
>[Tys... | 2024-02-26T02:56:00Z | 2024-05-17T04:00:00Z | 2024-05-18T23:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21185 | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Hungary currently stands as the last country left to approve Sweden's accession into the NATO, in contrast to repeated [promises](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-sweden-nato-membership-orban-last-holdout-13cb5837bc1819382a08531a879fa348) that the country will not be the last one to do so. The Turkish Grand National ... | 2024-01-31T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-28T11:00:00Z | 2024-02-26T15:57:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21183 | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | On January 8, 2024, Ecuador's president Daniel Noboa [declared a 60-day state of emergency](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-declares-state-emergency-amid-prison-chaos-2024-01-08/). The state of emergency followed a [wave of violence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/11/24034891/ecuador-drugs-coc... | 2024-01-24T15:30:00Z | 2024-03-31T22:00:00Z | 2024-04-01T16:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21182 | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | On January 8, 2024, Ecuador's president Daniel Noboa [declared a 60-day state of emergency](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-declares-state-emergency-amid-prison-chaos-2024-01-08/). The state of emergency followed a [wave of violence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/11/24034891/ecuador-drugs-coc... | 2024-01-24T15:30:00Z | 2024-03-31T22:00:00Z | 2024-03-08T12:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21138 | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent... | 2024-01-23T17:57:00Z | 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-08T22:08:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21137 | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent... | 2024-02-28T22:35:00Z | 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-08T22:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21120 | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | [Fani Willis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fani_Willis), the Fulton County District Attorney, has been at the forefront of a significant legal inquiry into former President Donald Trump's conduct in Georgia in the [immediate aftermath of the 2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Georgia_election_investigat... | 2024-01-23T15:30:00Z | 2024-03-31T22:00:00Z | 2024-04-01T06:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21109 | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Donald Trump won the most delegates in the Iowa caucus on January 15th, 2024, receiving [20 of the 40 available](https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/). Ron DeSantis came in second with nine delegates and Nikki Haley came in [third place](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21005/nikki-haley-2nd-in-... | 2024-01-17T20:00:00Z | 2024-01-23T17:00:00Z | 2024-01-26T16:34:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21093 | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | [12 teams](https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-teams-never-won-super-bowl-list-2024) have never won a Super Bowl. Three of them are still in contention to win Super Bowl 58:
- Buffalo Bills
- Detroit Lions
- Houston Texans
In the [divisional round](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39307439/nfl-playoffs-bracket-rese... | 2024-01-17T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-11T19:00:00Z | 2024-01-29T04:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21081 | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | [Dune: Part Two](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune:_Part_Two) is an upcoming epic science fiction film directed by Denis Villeneuve. It is the second movie of a two-part adaptation of the 1965 novel Dune by Frank Herbert.
The first part, named [Dune](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune_(2021_film)) was released in 20... | 2024-01-17T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T23:00:00Z | 2024-03-05T21:22:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-21050 | Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Party retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Kingswood by-election ? | A by-election is expected to take place on 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Kingswood. This follows a [decision](https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/kingswood-election-everything-you-need-9020898) by its MP, Chris Skidmore, to stand down from Parliament. Skidmore, who represents the Con... | 2024-01-13T16:16:00Z | 2024-02-16T04:00:00Z | 2024-02-16T15:19:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21049 | Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ? | A by-election will take place on Thursday 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Wellingborough following a recall petition held in late 2023 that removed the incumbent MP Peter Bone under the terms of the Recall of MPs Act 2015, triggered by his six-week suspension from the House of Commons. [Full infor... | 2024-01-13T16:13:00Z | 2024-02-15T22:00:00Z | 2024-02-16T15:19:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21005 | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4395716-haley-looks-to-defy-expectations-in-iowa/).
> Nikki Haley is looking to outperform expectations in the Iowa caucuses next week in hopes of solidifying her status as the top challenger to former President Trump in the Republican presidential primary.... | 2024-01-10T22:00:00Z | 2024-01-15T19:00:00Z | 2024-01-16T17:43:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21003 | Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025? | In 2022, the FCC implemented a rule [mandating satellite operators to dispose of satellites within five years after their missions](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/oct/02/fcc-space-debris-fine-dish-network-satellite#:~:text=It%20says%20that%20the%20more,five%20years%20of%20mission%20completion.).
In 2002, DIS... | 2024-01-11T19:46:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:00:00Z | 2025-01-06T16:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-21000 | Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024? | The [Harvard Institute of Politics](https://iop.harvard.edu/) conducts political polls in the spring and fall of every year. Biden's approval rating with youth aged 18-to-29 has been as high as 59% in the Spring 2021 poll, and has steadily declined in each subsequent poll, reaching a low of 35% in the Fall 2023 poll t... | 2024-01-11T19:56:00Z | 2024-04-01T23:30:00Z | 2024-04-18T15:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20919 | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | There are three moon lander missions scheduled in early 2024, two by private companies and [one by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Company](https://www.space.com/japan-slim-moon-landing-try-january-2024) (JAXA). Either private landing could potentially represent the [first ever successful private moon landing](https://... | 2024-01-08T16:00:00Z | 2024-02-20T23:00:00Z | 2024-02-24T00:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20917 | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | The [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) cruise missile is a German-produced air-launched weapon with a declared range of 500+ km and is designed to destroy "hard and deeply buried targets" (HDBT) such as hardened underground bunkers. Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may use it to attempt to de... | 2024-02-03T21:48:00Z | 2024-12-31T11:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T02:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20895 | Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | According to the ISW:
> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent
[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai... | 2024-04-23T11:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T09:00:00Z | 2025-01-16T23:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20880 | Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025? | In the last year or so, the US government has restricted China's ability to develop cutting edge AI through [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://... | 2024-01-11T18:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:59:00Z | 2025-01-17T16:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20878 | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | South Africa filed a case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Israel claiming it has violated the [1948 Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide_Convention) against genocide on Friday December 29. The case will be argued [January 11 or 12](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67866342). ... | 2024-01-08T16:00:00Z | 2024-01-20T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-26T15:40:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20876 | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | The Indonesian presidential election is being contested by [Anies Baswedan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anies_Baswedan) (independent), the former governor of Jakarta; [Prabowo Subianto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prabowo_Subianto) (Gerindra), the Minister of Defense; and [Ganjar Pranowo](https://en.wikipedia.org/w... | 2024-01-24T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-13T17:00:00Z | 2024-03-06T15:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20791 | Will a New or Joint "Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record" in NBA History be set in 2024? | Two months into the 2023-24 [National Basketball Association](https://www.nba.com/) (NBA) regular season, a number of teams have slumped to a poor record. The Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards and San Antonio Spurs have less than a .200 winning percentage. There has been [some criticism of the Detroit Pistons](https:... | 2023-12-28T20:27:00Z | 2024-04-14T22:00:00Z | 2024-03-08T03:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20790 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_and_radiation_accidents_and_incidents):
> "A nuclear and radiation accident is defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as "an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility. Examples include letha... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2025-01-02T14:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20789 | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | The [Federal Funds Rate (FFR)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate) is the interest rate at which U.S. depository institutions lend reserve balances to each other overnight. It's a crucial benchmark in financial markets and influences a wide range of market interest rates. As of December 2023, the target F... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T19:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T14:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20786 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Former President Donald Trump [has been charged with 91 felony counts](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/) in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is [scheduled to go to trial in March 2024](https://www.axios.com/2023/07/... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-11-04T23:00:00Z | 2024-05-30T21:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20785 | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the se... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-10-13T12:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20784 | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | The refugee admissions cap was [set to a historic low](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/us-refugee-cap-fy21/index.html) of 15,000 for fiscal year 2021 by the Trump administration, following a steadily declining admissions cap after Trump took office. The Biden administration raised the cap for FY 2021 to 62,500 ... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-09-30T22:00:00Z | 2024-10-06T11:35:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20783 | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | [Ali Khamenei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei) has been Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989. His predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader of Iran, had formally selected a successor in 1985, four years before his death in 1989. However, after falling out with his chosen successor he selected Al... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T04:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20781 | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Since Elon Musk concluded his purchase of Twitter on [October 22nd, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk), the company (now rebranded to "X") has had its fair share of scandals, such as the [removal](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/20/23690820/twitter-verified-blue-checkmark-legacy-el... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T04:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20780 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Specific legislation limiting LLMs has not been introduced in the U.S. Congress as of now. However, the ongoing discussions and emerging concerns in various sectors, including healthcare, indicate a growing awareness and potential for legislative action in the near future.
Note: There is no formal definition for LLMs... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-03-19T16:40:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20779 | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | The [2024 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Parties will select their candidates in 2024. The current front runners for the Democratic Party and Republican party are [Joe Biden](https://www.metaculus.com/ques... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-10-08T22:00:00Z | 2024-06-28T01:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20776 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | As of the end of 2023, the legal landscape for cannabis in the United States has undergone significant changes, marking a departure from previous years. Recreational marijuana is now legal in 24 states and the District of Columbia. This represents a substantial increase from the earlier status when it was legal in only... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T07:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T04:49:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20775 | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the se... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20774 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | In its article [Q&A: Everything You Should Know About Government Shutdowns](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns) the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes government shutdowns as follows:
>Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual fundi... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2025-01-04T01:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20773 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge), also known as Kerch Bridge, connects the peninsula of Crimea with Russia's Krasnodar Krai region. It is properly two linked bridges in parallel; one bridge carries a roadway and the other a railway. The bridge is a potential military objective as a maj... | 2024-03-31T19:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:00:00Z | 2024-12-25T05:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20771 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Mike Johnson, elected as the Speaker of the House of Representatives in late October 2023, is set to serve in this role through at least early January 2025. This tenure will include overseeing the House as it votes to formally accept the results of the 2024 election. Johnson, a Republican representative from Louisiana,... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T18:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T04:51:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20770 | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia [in 1993](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict), following a [lengthy war for independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean_War_of_Independence). Independence was followed by a [major war between the two nations in 1998](https://en.wik... | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-07T13:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
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