id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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meta-16741 | Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case? | [E. Jean Carroll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._Jean_Carroll), a writer and former advice columnist for Elle magazine, has [accused](https://www.vox.com/politics/23696250/e-jean-carroll-trump-trial-sexual-misconduct-rape-allegations) former President Donald Trump of raping her in the mid-1990s at the Bergdorf Goodma... | 2023-05-07T13:00:00Z | 2023-05-12T17:00:00Z | 2023-05-09T19:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-16729 | Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023? | Estonia had a general election on 7 March 2023, after which a new liberal majority coalition government was created. One of the points agreed upon was the reclassification of marriage as " a union between two consenting adults" . This naturally brings up the question, will Estonia's parliament actually legalize marria... | 2023-05-15T07:14:00Z | 2023-12-24T21:59:00Z | 2023-06-20T11:50:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-16724 | Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023? | On May 3rd, Hollywood film and TV writers [went on strike](https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/may/02/hollywood-writers-strike-industry-effects) after the Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers failed to reach a new contract agreement. The strike was prompted by streaming... | 2023-05-05T18:00:00Z | 2023-05-13T05:00:00Z | 2023-05-13T07:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-16723 | Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit? | In 1973, renowned singer-songwriter Marvin Gaye reached number one on the Billboard Pop Singles chart with "[Let's Get It On](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Get_It_On_(song))," which he co-wrote with producer Ed Townsend. The hit established Gaye as an American music icon. Several decades later, English musician... | 2023-05-03T17:34:00Z | 2023-05-12T17:00:00Z | 2023-05-04T17:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16718 | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | Since 1927, Time magazine has annually chosen its [Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), who "for better or worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year." While its choice is usually a human person, Time has also chosen inanimate objects in the past, specifically ... | 2023-05-05T17:42:00Z | 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z | 2023-12-06T12:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16704 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | [US-China relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have been tense in [recent years](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-china-relations) due to trade disputes, regional security concerns, and ideological differences. The trade war began in 2018, with both countries imposing tariffs o... | 2023-05-05T20:50:00Z | 2025-01-01T03:00:00Z | 2025-01-14T07:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16663 | Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023? | Moody’s, whose [next credit assessment on Italy is due May 19](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/italy-stands-moody-only-country-080000197.html), rates it at Baa3, one notch above junk. The outlook on that has been negative since August — a notably pessimistic appraisal of the country whose fractious coalition led by prem... | 2023-05-01T23:39:00Z | 2023-05-18T21:00:00Z | 2023-06-01T16:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16642 | Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023? | The [Eurovision Song Contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest) is an international song competition organised annually by the European Broadcasting Union featuring participants representing primarily European countries. Each participating country submits an original song to be performed on live te... | 2023-05-01T14:00:00Z | 2023-05-13T11:00:00Z | 2023-05-13T23:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-16641 | Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023? | When [Silicon Valley Bank collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_of_Silicon_Valley_Bank), the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) jumped to a value of 1.56, the highest value since 2020.
<iframe src="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=12WiC&width=100%25&height=475" scrolling="n... | 2023-05-01T13:00:00Z | 2023-06-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-07-06T16:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16619 | Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks? | The [2023 World Chess Championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2023) is a best of 14 games, plus tiebreaks if required.
After 13 games, the score is tied 6.5-6.5. If the 14th game is a draw then the World Champion will be decided by tiebreaks which are currently scheduled to be played on A... | 2023-04-27T15:00:00Z | 2023-04-29T09:00:00Z | 2023-04-30T11:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-16618 | Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself? | The emergence of ["agentized" large language models (LLMs)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ogHr8SvGqg9pW5wsT/capabilities-and-alignment-of-llm-cognitive-architectures) such as [AutoGPT](https://github.com/Significant-Gravitas/Auto-GPT), [HuggingGPT](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.17580), [Reflexion](https://arxiv.org/pdf/... | 2023-05-03T18:46:00Z | 2023-06-30T19:00:00Z | 2023-07-05T15:10:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16525 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023? | On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an [agreement to purchase Figma](https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2022/Adobe-to-Acquire-Figma/default.aspx) for $20 billion USD.
Since then, reports have emerged that [the U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal](https://www.reuters.com... | 2023-05-02T19:32:00Z | 2023-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2023-12-17T17:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16519 | Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023? | In his first major test as Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy plans to hold a vote on the *[Limit, Save, Grow Act](https://www.speaker.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/LSGA_xml.pdf)* this week. The bill, which is not expected to receive support from the Senate or President Biden, would nevertheless be an [important ste... | 2023-04-25T01:20:00Z | 2023-05-01T03:00:00Z | 2023-04-26T21:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-16517 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023? | The [U.S. debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling) is a statutory limit set by Congress on the amount of national debt that the federal government is allowed to incur. When the government approaches the debt ceiling, it must either seek an increase in the limit from Congress or take measu... | 2023-04-25T01:20:00Z | 2023-07-01T03:59:00Z | 2023-07-01T16:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16514 | Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist? | The [Pulitzer Prize for Fiction](https://www.pulitzer.org/prize-winners-by-category/219) is a prestigious annual award that recognizes outstanding literary works of fiction by American authors, typically dealing with American life. Established in 1917 by the provisions in the will of Joseph Pulitzer, a Hungarian-Americ... | 2023-04-27T18:00:00Z | 2023-05-04T18:00:00Z | 2023-05-08T19:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16420 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | At points, the Indian government has shown a tendency to use military operations around the time of important elections, possibly as a political strategy.
India has not declared a war on Pakistan, but the Indian government has executed two cross-border military operations in response to terrorist attacks, subsequently... | 2023-04-24T19:31:00Z | 2024-05-01T06:30:00Z | 2024-06-01T16:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16411 | Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024? | Rishi Sunak’s [first speech](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-minister-rishi-sunaks-statement-25-october-2022) as Prime Minister of the UK on October 25, 2022 highlighted his desire to lead a government that will bring back professionalism and accountability, in contrast to the two previous governments, led... | 2023-04-28T02:25:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16409 | Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th? | On April 30th, Paraguayan citizens head to the polls to elect their next president with ripples likely to be felt around the world.
Leading candidate, Santiago Peña, represents the Colorado Party, which has been in power for much of the last century, including the current President Mario Abdo Benítez. Of global note, ... | 2023-04-21T16:00:00Z | 2023-04-29T18:00:00Z | 2023-05-01T08:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-16327 | Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)? | [Freedom in the World](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_in_the_World) is a yearly report that measures the degree of civil liberties and political rights in the different countries in the World. It is published by the NGO Freedom House.
Each country gets two scores: one for civil liberties and the other for polit... | 2023-05-13T23:32:00Z | 2024-01-01T10:00:00Z | 2024-02-29T05:23:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-16168 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Born in 1933, [Dianne Feinstein](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dianne_Feinstein) has been serving as a US Senator since 1992.
Despite announcing her intention [not to seek re-election in 2024](https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?id=7749771D-9314-4884-A75D-D9DE7181D372#:~:text=Feinstein%3A... | 2023-04-21T13:00:00Z | 2025-01-03T20:00:00Z | 2023-09-29T13:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16164 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.
Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Mis... | 2023-04-19T14:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T18:00:00Z | 2025-01-02T14:29:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16157 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | On March 9, 2023, Elon Musk incorporated a new AI company called [X.AI](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23684005/elon-musk-new-ai-company-x). [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23684005/elon-musk-new-ai-company-x) reports rumors that Musk has purchased thousands of Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) to b... | 2023-04-19T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T18:00:00Z | 2023-12-08T03:55:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-16033 | Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year? | Disc golf tournaments have emerged as a popular competitive sport, leading to an increase in the number and scale of [professional disc golf tournaments](https://www.dgpt.com/) worldwide.
The *[Play It Again Sports Jonesboro Open](https://www.dgpt.com/event/jonesboro-open-2023/)* runs from April 28-30th and attracts ... | 2023-04-21T16:00:00Z | 2023-04-28T18:00:00Z | 2023-05-01T16:59:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-16004 | Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023? | Google pays Apple, Samsung, and other phone creators [billions of dollars](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-08/google-pays-enormous-sums-to-maintain-its-dominance-doj-says#xj4y7vzkg) to have Google be the default search provider.
On February 7, 2023, Microsoft began rolling out a major overhaul to Bing ... | 2023-04-18T13:00:00Z | 2023-09-30T19:00:00Z | 2023-10-02T03:25:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-16003 | Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023? | On February 7, 2023, Microsoft began rolling out a major overhaul to Bing that included a new chatbot feature based on OpenAI's GPT-4 [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing).
On March 21, 2023, Google [opened early access](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/21/23649794/google-chatgpt-rival-bard-ai-chatbot-ac... | 2023-04-19T13:00:00Z | 2023-07-30T19:00:00Z | 2023-08-01T20:29:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15973 | Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023? | On April 14th, SpaceX [received a launch license](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15688/starship-launch-license-before-apr-15-2023/) for its [Starship spacecraft](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). A launch [scheduled for April 17th](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-rocket-super-heavy-launch-what-time... | 2023-04-17T21:00:00Z | 2023-04-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-04-20T13:35:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15965 | Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023? | On April 15, 2023, [fighting erupted in Sudan](https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/15/africa/sudan-presidential-palace-intl/index.html) between the paramilitary [Rapid Support Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces) (RSF) and the Sudanese army. Sudan has been under military control since a [coup in 2019](ht... | 2023-05-11T13:00:00Z | 2023-06-14T23:00:00Z | 2023-06-15T14:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15939 | Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections? | [Cristina Fernández de Kirchner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cristina_Fern%C3%A1ndez_de_Kirchner) was a two-term president of Argentina from 2007 to 2015, following her late husband Nestor Kirchner's 2003-2007 term. After her party lost the 2015 presidential elections against [Mauricio Marcri](https://en.wikipedia.or... | 2023-04-17T13:45:00Z | 2023-06-23T15:00:00Z | 2023-06-25T13:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15851 | Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023? | [Amritpal Singh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amritpal_Singh) is the disputed leader of [Waris Punjab De](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waris_Punjab_De), an organization promoting the [Khalistan movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalistan_movement) in India. The Khalistan movement seeks to establish a sovereign ... | 2023-04-13T18:00:00Z | 2023-04-21T04:00:00Z | 2023-04-21T13:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15849 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024? | Mariupol is a city in southeastern Ukraine located on the north coast of the Sea of Azov, which is currently under Russian occupation. Before the Russian 2022 invasion of Ukraine it had a population of over 400,000 residents, and it was an important industrial center in Ukraine. The city came under siege of Russian f... | 2023-04-12T16:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T22:59:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15835 | Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023? | [According to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/postmarket-drug-safety-information-patients-and-providers/questions-and-answers-mifepristone-medical-termination-pregnancy-through-ten-weeks-gestation):
>The FDA first approved Mifeprex (mifepristone) in September 2000 for medical termi... | 2023-04-12T17:42:00Z | 2023-07-01T04:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T16:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15815 | Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025? | The [Clean Air Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_(United_States)ss) (CAA) is the broad name given to the United States' air quality laws, which are administered by the [Environmental Protection Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Environmental_Protection_Agency) (EPA). Originally passed i... | 2023-04-07T12:05:00Z | 2025-01-21T05:00:00Z | 2024-12-17T05:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15796 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | After the [Russian's invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in February 2022, Russia has been subject to a large amount of international pressure. That pressure has taken many different forms; [sanctions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10266/russia-sanctions-1-year-after-i... | 2023-04-17T16:47:00Z | 2024-07-26T19:00:00Z | 2024-07-26T20:11:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15778 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | On March 30, 2023, Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, was [charged](https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-indictment-criminal-charges.html) with [34 felony counts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictment_of_Donald_Trump) associated with falsifying business records. The indictments by a Manhattan gr... | 2023-04-17T01:27:00Z | 2024-11-04T20:00:00Z | 2024-05-30T21:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15765 | Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023? | [Armiansk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armiansk) is a town in northern Crimea. It has been under Russian control since 2014 when Russia [seized and annexed the Crimean peninsula](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation).
Ukraine, preparing for a [likely spring counteroffensive](h... | 2023-04-12T16:00:00Z | 2023-06-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15762 | Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023? | On March 27, Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1640502698549075972):
>Starting April 15th, only verified accounts will be eligible to be in For You recommendations. The is the only realistic way to address advanced AI bot swarms taking over. It is otherwise a hopeless losing battle. **Voting in p... | 2023-04-09T16:00:00Z | 2023-04-16T19:00:00Z | 2023-04-16T16:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15688 | Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023? | SpaceX, a leading aerospace manufacturer and space transportation company, has been developing the [Starship spacecraft](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as a next-generation reusable launch vehicle. Designed for missions ranging from Earth orbit to interplanetary travel, Starship has the potential to revolut... | 2023-04-05T18:00:00Z | 2023-04-14T23:00:00Z | 2023-04-14T21:50:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15686 | Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%? | The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the ... | 2023-04-05T18:00:00Z | 2023-04-07T11:30:00Z | 2023-04-07T12:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15685 | Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th? | [Open AI](https://openai.com/), the maker of GPT models such as GPT-4 and chatGPT, has recently announced a [world tour](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1641181669431611392) to connect with users and developers.
[Current destinations](https://openai.com/form/openai-tour-2023) listed include a heavy focus on Europe an... | 2023-04-05T18:00:00Z | 2023-04-07T18:00:00Z | 2023-04-10T18:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15684 | Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023? | On March 31st, Italy [temporarily banned ChatGPT](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65139406) over [privacy concerns](https://www.wsj.com/articles/chatgpt-banned-in-italy-over-data-privacy-concerns-4b984e75).
The [announcement of the ban](https://www.gpdp.it/web/guest/home/docweb/-/docweb-display/docweb/9870847#engl... | 2023-04-05T18:00:00Z | 2023-06-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15682 | Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional? | The [Indian Child Welfare Act (ICWA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Child_Welfare_Act), enacted in 1978, is a federal law designed to protect the best interests of Native American children and promote the stability of their tribes and families.
The establishment of the ICWA came as a response to a painful lega... | 2023-04-05T18:00:00Z | 2023-06-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-06-15T14:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15665 | Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List? | Virginia State Code § 2.2-2472 (A.9), [requires](https://www.vedp.org/sites/default/files/voee/Virginia_High_Demand_Occupations_List_2021-2022_Full.pdf) the Virginia Board of Workforce Development (VBWD) to publish a list of jobs, trades, and professions for which high demand for qualified workers exists or is projecte... | 2023-03-31T20:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2023-12-19T14:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15664 | Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023? | VDH tracks the number of [new COVID-19 cases](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) by report date, which it [currently](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/dashboardschedule/) updates weekly.
VDH [tracks](https://www.vdh.virgini... | 2023-03-31T20:00:00Z | 2023-10-01T16:00:00Z | 2023-10-02T20:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15656 | Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024? | On 15/16 March 2023, the WHO [updated](https://www.who.int/news/item/16-03-2023-statement-on-the-update-of-who-s-working-definitions-and-tracking-system-for-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-and-variants-of-interest) its tracking system and [working definitions](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-defi... | 2023-03-31T20:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2024-01-04T17:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15651 | Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023? | The [Department of Homeless Services (DHS)](https://www.nyc.gov/site/dhs/about/inside-dhs.page) is a New York City agency dedicated to preventing homelessness, addressing street homelessness, providing temporary shelter, and connecting individuals to suitable housing through collaboration with not-for-profit partners. ... | 2023-04-15T01:20:00Z | 2023-09-30T11:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:50:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15641 | Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024? | In early 2023, mass protests and strikes erupted in Israel over the government's plans to strip power from judges. The [reforms](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65086871) would grant the government control over judge appointments and limit the Supreme Court's ability to strike down legislation deemed uncon... | 2023-04-02T16:20:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T16:26:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15630 | Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | [WWDC](https://developer.apple.com/wwdc23/) is Apple's annual conference to announce upcoming Apple products; the next WWDC is scheduled to be held on June 5-9 2023.
[Tom's Guide](https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-mixed-reality-headset-release-date-price-specs-and-leaks) has collected several rumors and repo... | 2023-04-17T15:00:00Z | 2023-06-30T19:00:00Z | 2023-06-05T18:24:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15629 | Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | [WWDC](https://developer.apple.com/wwdc23/) is Apple's annual conference to announce upcoming Apple products; the next WWDC is scheduled to be held on June 5-9 2023.
[Tom's Guide](https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-mixed-reality-headset-release-date-price-specs-and-leaks) has collected several rumors and repo... | 2023-04-14T01:39:00Z | 2023-06-30T19:00:00Z | 2023-06-05T18:24:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15628 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | See a compilation of rumors, news, and patents on such a device in [Tom's Guide.](https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-glasses).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if a qualifying Apple device is announced before 2025.
For this question, "Apple Glasses" are defined as any pair of glasses that ... | 2023-04-22T14:55:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2025-01-17T17:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15627 | Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024? | In late March 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin has [announced plans](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65077687) to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. This would mark the first time Moscow would based nuclear arms outside Russia since the mid-1990s. Control of the arms will not be transferred to M... | 2023-03-28T19:18:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2023-06-14T08:28:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15625 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024? | In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us... | 2023-03-29T18:11:00Z | 2023-12-31T04:59:00Z | 2023-12-31T16:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15622 | Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023? | In the wake of the [2023 banking turmoil](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/how-2023-banking-crisis-unfolded-2023-03-24/), triggerd by the collapse of [Silicon Valley Bank](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forrester/2023/03/24/the-silicon-valley-bank-crisis-highlights-the-importance-of-resilience-and-the-imperative-... | 2023-03-28T12:21:00Z | 2023-05-31T11:00:00Z | 2023-06-01T16:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15620 | Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023? | Copper is a vital element in the global shift towards clean energy sources, as it plays a significant role in the development and implementation of renewable energy technologies like wind and solar power. According to a [Copper Development Association (CDA)](https://www.copper.org/resources/market_data/infographics/cop... | 2023-03-30T19:24:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2023-12-30T04:59:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15619 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | The Internet Archive maintains a digital lending library that lends out [digital copies of books it has in its physical possession](https://archive.org/details/inlibrary), such that one physical copy corresponds to one digital copy for lending.
During the COVID-19 pandemic and the initial lockdowns in 2020, the Intern... | 2023-03-31T14:54:00Z | 2024-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2025-01-14T07:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30708 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):
> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing b... | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2024-12-13T05:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30690 | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Bushra Bibi is the wife of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Mr. Khan was ousted through a no-confidence vote in Parliament in April 2022 and sentenced to three years in a £190 million graft case. He was later found guilty of revealing official secrets and sentenced to a further 10 years in prison. In Novemb... | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T22:18:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30681 | Will Candy Meehan survive the recall vote in Norwood, Colorado, scheduled for December 10, 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Candy Meehan recall, Norwood, Colorado (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Candy_Meehan_recall,_Norwood,_Colorado_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Mayor Candy Meehan wins the recall vote scheduled for December 10, 2024, in Norwood CO.
Fine Print: The question resolves based ... | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-13T13:33:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30680 | Will the state of Delaware's Division of Corporations list OpenAI as an "Exempt" entity on December 31, 2024? | [Exclusive: OpenAI to remove non-profit control and give Sam Altman equity](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI is listed as "Exempt" by Delaware's Di... | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:52:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30679 | Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥6 degrees F? | According to the [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/), "The temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at three times the global annual average, driving many of the changes underway in the Arctic. Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ... | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T03:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30678 | Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥4 degrees F? | According to the [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/), "The temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at three times the global annual average, driving many of the changes underway in the Arctic. Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ... | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T20:14:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30677 | Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December? | According to the [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/), "The temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at three times the global annual average, driving many of the changes underway in the Arctic. Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ... | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T03:38:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30676 | Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be less than -6? | [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has in... | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-30T20:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30675 | Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than or equal to -6 and less than or equal to -4? | [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has in... | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-30T20:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30674 | Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than -4? | [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has in... | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-30T20:34:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30673 | Will New Zealand report <275 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52? | Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):
> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, ... | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-08T10:22:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30672 | Will New Zealand report greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52? | Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):
> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, ... | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-08T10:22:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30671 | Will New Zealand report >375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52? | Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):
> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, ... | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-08T10:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30669 | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Following his recent electoral victory, President-elect Donald Trump has announced all 15 of the federal department heads and 5 more "Cabinet-level" officials. Matt Gaetz, who was initially nominated for Attorney General, [withdrew his nomination](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99r2m4y2zro) on November 21, 2024, ... | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T03:25:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30625 | Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have under $550 billion in reverse repurchase agreements at the end of December 2024? | TrendForce: [Fed’s Reverse Repo Shrinks Significantly: Is Market Liquidity at Risk ?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/11/news-feds-reverse-repo-shrinks-significantly-is-market-liquidity-at-risk/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the fourth weekly balance sheet of the Federal Reserve re... | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-28T16:22:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30624 | Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have less than $6.8 trillion in assets at the end of December 2024? | Reuters: [Fed's Powell says balance sheet drawdown continues amid rate cuts](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-says-balance-sheet-drawdown-continues-amid-rate-cuts-2024-09-18/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the fourth weekly balance sheet of the Federal Reserve released for the... | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-28T16:22:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30623 | Will Bitcoin be worth at least 200,000 Dogecoin on December 30, 2024? | At the time of this question, Dogecoin had year-to-date returns of 375.27% and Bitcoin had ytd returns of 129.63%.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, after the close of trading on December 30, 2024, 1 Bitcoin is worth greater than or equal to 200,000 Dogecoin, as reported by Google Finance [her... | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:55:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30622 | Will the 2024 return of professional investor Howard Marks beat the return of any of the politicans tracked by Quiver Quantitative? | NPR: [Stock traders are trying to beat the market — by copying lawmakers](https://www.npr.org/2024/06/06/nx-s1-4974720/congress-stock-trades-profits)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if after the close of trading on the final trading day of December 2024, the 12-month total return of Howard Marks... | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T02:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30619 | Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat the S&P 500 in 2024? | Motley Fool: [Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Nearly Tripled the S&P 500's Returns in 2023: Here Are the Stocks She's Been Buying](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/04/28/former-house-speaker-nancy-pelosi-nearly-tripled-t/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if after the close of trading on the... | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T02:04:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30618 | Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat Berkshire Hathaway in 2024? | Benzinga: [Edward Snowden Contrasts Warren Buffett's Investment Skills with Nancy Pelosi, Dan Meuser: 'Fortunate to Be Represented by Extraordinary Talents](https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/03/38016319/edward-snowden-contrasts-warren-buffetts-investment-skills-with-nancy-pelosi-dan-meuser-fortunate-to)
Resolution Crit... | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T02:04:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30617 | Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥175,000 for November 2024? | TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, ... | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-06T13:51:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30616 | Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥75,000 for November 2024? | TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, ... | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-06T13:51:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30615 | Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers for November 2024? | TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, ... | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-06T13:48:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30593 | Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025? | Lebanese politics works on a [confessional basis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taif_Agreement), where legislative seats and executive positions are allocated to various ethnoreligious groups. The Presidency is always held by a Maronite Christian; however, the country's volatile political and military landscape has oft... | 2024-12-19T01:31:51Z | 2024-12-31T03:00:00Z | 2025-01-10T03:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30580 | Will Tesla increase its quarterly vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024 on a year-over-year basis? | In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than... | 2024-11-29T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T23:25:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30579 | Will US airline passenger volume for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA? | 2023 was the [busiest travel year ever](https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/2023-numbers-more-flights-fewer-cancellations-more-consumer-protections), with very low cancellation rates, from a historical perspective.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if total passenger volume for the 7-day ... | 2024-11-29T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T23:29:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30578 | Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on December 20, 2024? | On Nomember 22, 2024, of the 10 individuals ranked 246-255 on Bloomberg's list, 6 were from the United States. On the entire list, 190 out of 500 indivduals were from the United States.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 250th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [... | 2024-11-29T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-20T21:59:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30577 | Will marijuana still be listed as a US Schedule I controlled substance on December 31, 2024? | According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/):
>On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) ... | 2024-11-29T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30576 | Will SpaceX fail to make any new posts on its Updates page before January 1, 2025? | As of November 22, 2024, SpaceX's most recent post was timestamped September 10, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if no new posts appear at SpaceX's Updates page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.spacex.com/updates/), timestamped after the close of this question and befor... | 2024-11-29T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T03:21:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30575 | Will the lowest temperature recorded in Anchorage, Alaska during the entire month of December 2024 be lower than the lowest temperature recorded in Chicago, IL for the month? | The last time this occured was in December 2017, when the lowest temperature recorded in the Chicago weather station during the month was -3 F, while the lowest recorded at the Anchorage weather station was 5 F. It almost occurred in December 2022, when Chicago recorded -9 F on December 23rd; however, Anchorage reached... | 2024-11-29T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T20:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30544 | Will the US Supreme Court's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 41.0% on December 30, 2024? | Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the approval rating of the US Supreme Court according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/supreme-court/) is greater than or equa... | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30543 | Will the US Congress's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 22.0% on December 30, 2024? | Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the approval rating of the US Congress according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/congress/) is greater than or equal to 22.0%... | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30542 | Will JD Vance's 538 favorability be greater than or equal to 39.0% on December 30, 2024? | Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if JD Vance's favorability rating according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/jd-vance/) is greater than or equal to 39.0% on ... | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30541 | Will Kamala Harris's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024? | Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Kamala Harris's approval rating according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/) is greater than or equal to 44.0% o... | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T16:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30540 | Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 38.5% on December 30, 2024? | According to 538, its approval tracker is "An updating calculation of the president's approval rating, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Joe Biden's approval rating according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeig... | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30538 | Will the lowest temperature recorded in Anchorage, Alaska during the entire month of December 2024 be lower than the lowest temperature recorded in Chicago, IL for the month? | The last time this occured was in December 2017, when the lowest temperature recorded in the Chicago weather station during the month was -3 F, while the lowest recorded at the Anchorage weather station was 5 F. It almost occurred in December 2022, when Chicago recorded -9 F on December 23rd; however, Anchorage reached... | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T20:21:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30537 | Will the lowest temperature recorded in Miami, FL over the entire month of December 2024 never be lower than the highest temperature recorded in Anchorage Alaska for the month? | This has not occurred in the past 5 years, although it has come close, such as in 2020 when the lowest temperature recorded in Miami was 47 on December 26, 2020) and the highest temperature recorded in Anchorage was 45 on December 1, 2020.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the lowest temperatur... | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T03:17:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30517 | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | According to [Airnow](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/):
>The U.S. Air Quality Index (AQI) is EPA's tool for communicating about outdoor air quality and health. The AQI includes six color-coded categories, each corresponding to a range of index values. The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollu... | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-25T12:00:00Z | 2024-12-20T22:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30516 | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Following his recent electoral victory, President-elect Donald Trump has announced all 15 of the federal department heads and 5 more "Cabinet-level" officials. Matt Gaetz, who was initially nominated for Attorney General, [withdrew his nomination](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99r2m4y2zro) on November 21, 2024, ... | 2024-11-30T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T12:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30500 | Will the temperature in Denver, CO remain below 70 degrees F for the entire month of December 2024? | In December 2022, the highest High was 64 F and in December 2023 it was 71. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website... | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T03:15:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30499 | Will the temperature in Phoenix, AZ remain below 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024? | In December 2022, the highest High was 74 F and in December 2023 it was 84. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website... | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T21:48:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30498 | Will the temperature in Chicago, IL remain below 60 degrees F for the entire month of December 2024? | In December 2022, the highest High was 57 F and in December 2023 it was 60. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website... | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T03:07:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30497 | Will the temperature in Anchorage, Alaska ever go below 0 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024? | In most years there are multiple days below 0 in Anchorage in December. However, in December 2019, there were not any. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data ar... | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T20:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30496 | Will the temperature in Jacksonville, FL ever exceed 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024? | According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temp... | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T03:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30495 | Will the temperature in New York, NY ever go below 25 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024? | In December 2022, this occurred, but in December 2023 it did not. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website."
Resol... | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-22T15:35:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30494 | Will the temperature in San Francisco, CA ever go below 40 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024? | In December 2022 the lowest recorded temperature was 40 F, while in December 2023 it was 46.13. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made avail... | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
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