id
stringlengths 8
25
| question
stringlengths 13
209
| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
20
| close_date
stringlengths 19
27
| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
20
| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
meta-16741
|
Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?
|
[E. Jean Carroll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._Jean_Carroll), a writer and former advice columnist for Elle magazine, has [accused](https://www.vox.com/politics/23696250/e-jean-carroll-trump-trial-sexual-misconduct-rape-allegations) former President Donald Trump of raping her in the mid-1990s at the Bergdorf Goodman department store in Manhattan. Carroll [first spoke](https://www.thecut.com/2019/06/donald-trump-assault-e-jean-carroll-other-hideous-men.html) about the allegations in 2019, during Trump's presidency, and filed a defamation lawsuit against him in November 2019 after he denied the allegations and accused her of lying to boost sales of her forthcoming book. The defamation lawsuit stalled in the courts for years and has yet to reach trial.
In 2022, New York lawmakers passed the state's [Adult Survivors Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adult_Survivors_Act), which provided sexual abuse victims a one-year window to sue attackers for assaults that occurred years earlier. This law enabled Carroll to file a [second lawsuit](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-rape-sexual-assault-lawsuit-e-jean-carroll-new-york/) against Trump in November 2022, accusing him of both rape and defamation for denying the assault took place. The second lawsuit, seeking damages and a retraction of his denial, is now being presented in a New York City federal courtroom under the supervision of US District Judge Lewis Kaplan. The proceedings [began on April 25, 2023](https://www.improvethenews.org/story/2023/donald-trump-civil-rape-trial-begins), and both sides rested their cases on May 4th.
For Trump, a loss in the defamation case could lead to financial damages and further damage his reputation. Moreover, an unfavorable outcome in the rape case could potentially validate Carroll's allegations and add to the controversies surrounding Trump's personal conduct. Losing the cases could also have broader implications, as it could embolden other accusers to pursue legal action and weaken Trump's political influence moving forward.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if the jury in the lawsuit between E. Jean Carroll and Donald Trump delivers a verdict in favor of the plaintiff. The question will also resolve as **Yes** if a publicly disclosed pre-verdict settlement is reached in which Donald Trump agrees to pay the plaintiffs at least a portion of the claimed damages and/or issues a retraction of his denial.
The question will resolve as **No** if the jury delivers a verdict in favor of Donald Trump. The question will also resolve as **No** if a publicly disclosed pre-verdict settlement is reached in which Donald Trump does not agree to pay the plaintiff at least a portion of the claimed damages or issue a retraction of his previous denial.
In the event of a mistrial, hung jury, a dismissal of the case before the jury reaches a verdict, or if a settlement is reached but is not publicly disclosed, the question will resolve as "ambiguous."
|
2023-05-07T13:00:00Z
|
2023-05-12T17:00:00Z
|
2023-05-09T19:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16729
|
Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?
|
Estonia had a general election on 7 March 2023, after which a new liberal majority coalition government was created. One of the points agreed upon was the reclassification of marriage as " a union between two consenting adults" . This naturally brings up the question, will Estonia's parliament actually legalize marriage between non-hetero people and also manage to do so in 2023?
Relevant info:
Politico article about this (english): https://www.politico.eu/article/estonia-kaja-kallas-government-coalition-agreement/
Coalition agreement (estonian): https://www.err.ee/1608941486/loodav-voimuliit-avalikustas-koalitsioonileppe
Resolution Criteria: The question will be resolved as a "yes" when a bill legalizing gay marriage has passed the Estonian parliament before 1. January 2024.
Most official way to track this is via https://www.riigikogu.ee/tegevus/eelnoud/ that shows all legislation that the parliament is currently discussing and has passed previously. However in the event of that site not updating in time, just news of this legislation passing/not passing from several reputable news sources is enough to resolve this question.
Fine Print: Notably, this question will be resolved as "yes" if the parliament votes for legislation approving the aforementioned changes to the concept of marriage. The legislation itself does not yet need to be in effect nor does it need to be approved by president. In fact, this question is still resolved as "yes", even if the president vetoes the bill, as is allowed by the constitution.
|
2023-05-15T07:14:00Z
|
2023-12-24T21:59:00Z
|
2023-06-20T11:50:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16724
|
Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?
|
On May 3rd, Hollywood film and TV writers [went on strike](https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/may/02/hollywood-writers-strike-industry-effects) after the Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers failed to reach a new contract agreement. The strike was prompted by streaming platforms shortening TV seasons and hiring fewer writers for briefer stints, and the shift to new models of consumption (like streaming).
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if the writers' strike is still ongoing at the end of the day on May 12th, 2023. The strike will be considered active if there is a work stoppage by the Writers Guild of America, including picketing or other forms of labor action. The question will be resolved based on reputable media reports, official statements from the Writers Guild and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, or other credible sources.
|
2023-05-05T18:00:00Z
|
2023-05-13T05:00:00Z
|
2023-05-13T07:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16723
|
Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?
|
In 1973, renowned singer-songwriter Marvin Gaye reached number one on the Billboard Pop Singles chart with "[Let's Get It On](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Get_It_On_(song))," which he co-wrote with producer Ed Townsend. The hit established Gaye as an American music icon. Several decades later, English musician Ed Sheeran released his widely popular romantic ballad "Thinking Out Loud," garnering similar chart-topping achievements in both Europe and the United States.
Controversy arose when the heirs of Ed Townsend, Gaye's co-writer, [filed a lawsuit](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/ed-sheeran-copyright-trial-heres-what-you-need-to-know.html) against Ed Sheeran, alleging that aspects of his song "Thinking Out Loud" copied parts of "Let's Get It On," thus violating the heirs' copyright. They are seeking $100 million in damages. Sheeran has denied these allegations, arguing that any similarities between the songs result from the ubiquity of certain chords and chord progressions in pop music.
The outcome of this lawsuit could potentially impact the music industry and the way musicians approach the creation of new music inspired by older works.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as "yes" if the jury in the copyright lawsuit between the heirs of Ed Townsend, the co-writer of Marvin Gaye's "Let's Get It On," and Ed Sheeran for his song "Thinking Out Loud" delivers a verdict in favor of the plaintiffs, finding that copyright infringement occurred. The question will also resolve as "yes" if a publicly disclosed pre-verdict settlement is reached in which Ed Sheeran or his representatives agree to pay the plaintiffs at least a portion of the claimed damages.
The question will resolve as "no" if the jury delivers a verdict in favor of Ed Sheeran, finding that no copyright infringement occurred. The question will also resolve as "no" if a publicly disclosed pre-verdict settlement is reached in which Ed Sheeran or his representatives do not agree to pay the plaintiffs at least a portion of the claimed damages.
In the event of a mistrial, hung jury, a dismissal of the case before the jury reaches a verdict, or if a settlement is reached but is not publicly disclosed, the question will resolve as "ambiguous."
|
2023-05-03T17:34:00Z
|
2023-05-12T17:00:00Z
|
2023-05-04T17:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16718
|
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
|
Since 1927, Time magazine has annually chosen its [Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), who "for better or worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year." While its choice is usually a human person, Time has also chosen inanimate objects in the past, specifically ["The Computer" in 1982](https://time.com/vault/issue/1983-01-03/page/1/) and ["Endangered Earth" in 1988](https://time.com/vault/issue/1989-01-02/page/1/).
Since the release of ChatGPT, there seems to have been a significant increase in interest in topics related to artificial intelligence (AI). For example, [Google searches for AI-related topics have increased significantly](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=%2Fm%2F0mkz), and [ChatGPT made it to the cover of Time.](https://time.com/vault/year/2023/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if Time announces that its choice for a Time Person of the Year in 2023 is AI. Both generic terms for AI, such as "Large Language Models" and "Generative AI", and specific AI systems, such as "ChatGPT" and "GPT-4", count toward a positive resolution.
Since AI is not a person, it may not be called "Person of the Year", but something like "Machine of the Year", [as Time did after its 1982 choice was "The Computer"](https://time.com/vault/issue/1983-01-03/page/1/). In this case, this question resolves positively if a Metaculus Admin(s) can reasonably determine that the choice is continuous with what Time has chosen since 1927.
If the “Person of the Year” named includes an AI and a person or group of people, such as “GPT-4 and Sam Altman,” or “Open AI and ChatGPT,” in any order, this question will still resolve positive.
If Time does not announce a Person of the Year for 2023 at all before April 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.
|
2023-05-05T17:42:00Z
|
2023-12-01T00:00:00Z
|
2023-12-06T12:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16704
|
Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?
|
[US-China relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have been tense in [recent years](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-china-relations) due to trade disputes, regional security concerns, and ideological differences. The trade war began in 2018, with both countries imposing tariffs on each other. The South China Sea has been a flashpoint for regional security, with China claiming sovereignty and the US conducting freedom of navigation operations. Ideological rifts include issues like human rights and democracy. Despite tensions, full-scale war would have severe global consequences. This question predicts whether active warfare between the US and China will occur in 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** based on two credible reports confirming that a military conflict involving direct engagement between the United States and China has occurred at any location during 2024 (from January 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024, both dates inclusive), resulting in at least 50 total deaths.
|
2023-05-05T20:50:00Z
|
2025-01-01T03:00:00Z
|
2025-01-14T07:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16663
|
Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?
|
Moody’s, whose [next credit assessment on Italy is due May 19](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/italy-stands-moody-only-country-080000197.html), rates it at Baa3, one notch above junk. The outlook on that has been negative since August — a notably pessimistic appraisal of the country whose fractious coalition led by premier Giorgia Meloni took office almost exactly six months ago.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Moody’s Investors Service lowers Italy’s credit rating in its next credit assessment of the country, which is scheduled for May 19, 2023. If the credit assessment does not take place, the question will resolve as **No.**
|
2023-05-01T23:39:00Z
|
2023-05-18T21:00:00Z
|
2023-06-01T16:12:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16642
|
Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?
|
The [Eurovision Song Contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest) is an international song competition organised annually by the European Broadcasting Union featuring participants representing primarily European countries. Each participating country submits an original song to be performed on live television and radio, with competing countries then casting votes for the other countries' songs to determine a winner.
The final stages of the [2023 edition of the contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2023) will take place in the United Kingdom in May 2023. Semi-finals will be held on May 9 and 11, and the grand final scheduled to be held on May 13.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the artist [Loreen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loreen_(singer)), representing Sweden in the contest with the song [Tattoo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3vJfR81xO0&ab_channel=EurovisionSongContest), is announced by the EBU or ESC as the official winner of the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest prior to May 20, 2023. The question will resolve as **No** if this does not occur for any reason, including if the contest is cancelled or delayed beyond May 20, 2023, or if Loreen does not represent Sweden in the contest. The question will resolve as **Yes** if Loreen is officially announced as the winner, and will not re-resolve negatively if the win is later rescinded, withdrawn, or otherwise annulled for any reason.
|
2023-05-01T14:00:00Z
|
2023-05-13T11:00:00Z
|
2023-05-13T23:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16641
|
Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?
|
When [Silicon Valley Bank collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_of_Silicon_Valley_Bank), the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) jumped to a value of 1.56, the highest value since 2020.
<iframe src="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=12WiC&width=100%25&height=475" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;" allowTransparency="true" loading="lazy"></iframe>
Since then, the Financial Stress Index has returned to typical levels, despite continued [challenges](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-28/first-republic-plunges-anew-amid-elusive-search-for-rescue-plan?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall) in the [banking system](https://www.vox.com/business-and-finance/2023/3/20/23648853/credit-suisse-ubs-silicon-valley-signature-banking-crisis) and [concerns](https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0e) about the risks posed by [Non-Bank Financial Institutions](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/04/04/nonbank-financial-sector-vulnerabilities-surface-as-financial-conditions-tighten#:~:text=Nonbank%20financial%20intermediaries%2C%20including%20pension,and%20thus%20supporting%20economic%20growth.), also known as "[shadow banks](https://www.fsb.org/2022/12/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2022/)". Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary during the 2008 financial crisis, recently [told](https://www.ft.com/content/a101d2c1-13b7-4a20-9e8e-38fb1d54723d) the *Financial Times*:
>We can never abolish financial crises. They will always happen.
The [STLFSI4](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI4) measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from [18 weekly data series](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/11/the-st-louis-feds-financial-stress-index-version-4/): seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators.
The average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero. Thus, zero is viewed as representing normal financial market conditions. Values below zero suggest below-average financial market stress, while values above zero suggest above-average financial market stress.
Resolution Criteria: For the purposes of this question, a "financial crisis" is a value of the [St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI4) (STLFSI4) of 1.75, a level that has happened four times in the last 30 years: the 1998 Russian Financial Crisis, after 9/11, during the 2008 Financial Crisis, and at the beginning of COVID lockdowns in 2020. The question resolves **Yes** if the STLFSI4 value is reported to be greater than or equal to 1.75 for any date between May 1, 2023 and June 30, 2023.
|
2023-05-01T13:00:00Z
|
2023-06-30T18:00:00Z
|
2023-07-06T16:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16619
|
Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?
|
The [2023 World Chess Championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2023) is a best of 14 games, plus tiebreaks if required.
After 13 games, the score is tied 6.5-6.5. If the 14th game is a draw then the World Champion will be decided by tiebreaks which are currently scheduled to be played on April 30, 2023 if needed.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if any tiebreak games are played before May 1, 2023, otherwise it will resolve as **No**.
|
2023-04-27T15:00:00Z
|
2023-04-29T09:00:00Z
|
2023-04-30T11:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16618
|
Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?
|
The emergence of ["agentized" large language models (LLMs)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ogHr8SvGqg9pW5wsT/capabilities-and-alignment-of-llm-cognitive-architectures) such as [AutoGPT](https://github.com/Significant-Gravitas/Auto-GPT), [HuggingGPT](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.17580), [Reflexion](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.11366.pdf), and [BabyAGI](https://github.com/yoheinakajima/babyagi) may be a significant focus in AI development's near future.
"Agentized" LLMs use multiple LLM systems to construct a cognitive architecture, with each LLM instance assigned a specific role, such as determining goals or offering executive function.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, any agentized-LLM (along the lines described [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ogHr8SvGqg9pW5wsT/capabilities-and-alignment-of-llm-cognitive-architectures)), such as Auto-GPT or BabyAGI, proposes a modification to itself that results in improved performance on tasks.
The system may generate the improvement autonomously, or in response to a prompt. The prompt must be general, such as "propose some improvements to this library," "improve your own cognitive architecture," or "improve yourself by adding some memory to yourself." The prompt must not be specific (e.g. "there's a bug in module X which causes an error - find it and fix it.")
Any improvement to the main codebase, libraries, and/or prompts that are part of the library will count.
Upon hearing of an update that plausibly fits the criteria, Metaculus admins will sample three public statements from knowledgeable figures about the effect of the update and, if at least two of these express the sentiment that the update has improved the system's performance overall, the question will resolve as **Yes**.
Fine Print: A **Yes** resolution will not be triggered if the LLM finds an existing comment in the codebase and implements the proposal within that comment. A **Yes** resolution also will not be triggered if the agentized-LLM changes pre-existing configurable parameters (such as model name, model path, or model temperature).
A **Yes** resolution will be triggered if the agentized-LLM introduces a new configurable parameter. For example, if model temperature wasn't configurable, and the agentized-LLM proposes making it configurable, that would be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.
In the case of ambiguity, a team of three Metaculus admins will determine what counts as an acceptable modification.
|
2023-05-03T18:46:00Z
|
2023-06-30T19:00:00Z
|
2023-07-05T15:10:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16525
|
Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?
|
On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an [agreement to purchase Figma](https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2022/Adobe-to-Acquire-Figma/default.aspx) for $20 billion USD.
Since then, reports have emerged that [the U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-preparing-antitrust-suit-block-adobe-plan-buy-figma-bloomberg-news-2023-02-23/).
Adobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. As of April 25, 2023, Adobe [no longer lists XD in its product lineup](
https://www.adobe.com/products/catalog.html) and XD is no longer available for download in the Creative Cloud store.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Adobe announces that it has completed a deal to acquire Figma before January 1, 2024.
|
2023-05-02T19:32:00Z
|
2023-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2023-12-17T17:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16519
|
Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?
|
In his first major test as Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy plans to hold a vote on the *[Limit, Save, Grow Act](https://www.speaker.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/LSGA_xml.pdf)* this week. The bill, which is not expected to receive support from the Senate or President Biden, would nevertheless be an [important step](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mccarthy-faces-first-big-test-speaker-defusing-debt-ceiling-time-bomb-rcna80691) to strengthen Republican's negotiating position over a final debt-ceiling increase.
McCarthy encountered difficulties securing the speakership and still [faces challenges](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/debt-limit-plan-house-gop-leaders-00093536) persuading the most conservative wing of his party to vote for the bill:
>House GOP leaders are waving off calls from rank-and-file Republicans for changes to their debt-limit proposal. Instead, they’re plowing ahead toward a floor vote this week, daring detractors to vote against it.
>At least, that’s what House Majority Whip Tom Emmer is asserting. Meanwhile, a handful of GOP members have told POLITICO they are still privately demanding changes to the bill and, without them, will lean toward voting “no” on the plan. And Republican leaders only have four votes to spare.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if the *Limit, Save, Grow Act* passes the U.S. House of Representatives before May 1, 2023.
|
2023-04-25T01:20:00Z
|
2023-05-01T03:00:00Z
|
2023-04-26T21:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16517
|
Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?
|
The [U.S. debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling) is a statutory limit set by Congress on the amount of national debt that the federal government is allowed to incur. When the government approaches the debt ceiling, it must either seek an increase in the limit from Congress or take measures to reduce its borrowing.
In the past, the U.S. has come close to breaching the debt ceiling on [several occasions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling), and in some cases, the government has temporarily suspended the limit or taken other measures to avoid default.
The US has failed to pay debt obligations on time on several occasions. [This Reason article](https://reason.com/2021/11/19/no-the-united-states-has-not-always-paid-its-debts/) describes five cases which could be characterized as default, and [this Congressional Research Service (CRS) report](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44704) explores three of them in more detail. The most recent occurrence was the 1979 "mini-default", when a technical error led to the late payment to holders of Treasury securities. CRS says the following about the overall record of US debt repayment:
>The historical record appears not to support the contention that the U.S. government has had an unblemished payment record since its origin. Under any reasonable definition of default, the federal government defaulted in 1814. The Treasury Secretary of the time, Alexander Dallas, referred to “every sort of embarrassment.” The current website of the U.S. Treasury notes that Secretary Dallas faced a “bankrupt” Treasury. The failure of the Treasury to pay interest on its securities due to Boston banks in 1814 represents an unambiguous default event.
Regarding the 1979 "mini-default" CRS says:
>Claims that payment delays to small investors holding Treasury securities in the spring of 1979 constituted a default or a “technical default” appear weaker. Delays affected only a relatively small proportion of Treasury securities and the federal government responded to mitigate the inconvenience suffered by those investors. The legal document setting out terms for Treasury securities contained no default clause.
According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-debt-ceiling-deadline-could-be-sooner-than-anticipated-banks-warn-2023-04-18/), the deadline for a debt ceiling increase could come earlier than expected:
>The U.S. government's deadline to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling could be sooner than expected, raising the prospect of a short-term debt limit extension, analysts said on Tuesday.
>Goldman Sachs analysts said weak tax collections so far in April indicate a higher probability that the so-called "X-date," when the government is no longer able to pay all its bills, would be reached in the first half of June. Analysts at Citi said they expected a short-term deal in June or July.
>The Treasury Department has warned that the federal government could reach the moment when it will no longer be able to meet its financial obligations as early as June 5, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has forecast that moment would come sometime between July and September.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, the President or Secretary of the Treasury announces that the US has defaulted payment on any of its sovereign debt obligations; OR any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, and Moody's) announce US has defaulted payment on any of its sovereign debt obligations.
Moody's, for example, [defines a sovereign issuer as in default when](https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/defaultresearch/2005600000424157.pdf) one or more of the following conditions are met:
> * 1) There is a missed or delayed disbursement of interest and/or principal, even if the delayed payment is made within the grace period, if any.
> * 2) A distressed exchange occurs, where:
> > * a) The issuer offers bondholders a new security or package of securities that amount to a diminished financial obligation such as new debt instruments with lower coupon or par value.
> > * b) The exchange had the apparent purpose of helping the borrower avoid a "stronger" event of default (such as a missed interest or principal payment)
|
2023-04-25T01:20:00Z
|
2023-07-01T03:59:00Z
|
2023-07-01T16:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16514
|
Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?
|
The [Pulitzer Prize for Fiction](https://www.pulitzer.org/prize-winners-by-category/219) is a prestigious annual award that recognizes outstanding literary works of fiction by American authors, typically dealing with American life. Established in 1917 by the provisions in the will of Joseph Pulitzer, a Hungarian-American newspaper publisher, the award has become a significant milestone in the careers of many acclaimed writers. The winner is chosen by a 17-member board, comprising distinguished journalists, academics, and literary figures, who evaluate the submissions based on their artistic merit, thematic relevance, and cultural impact.
Predicting the winner of the Pulitzer Prize is [difficult](https://supposedlyfun.com/2023/03/23/pulitzer-prize-predictions-for-fiction-2023/). Unlike other awards, there is no shortlist and finalists are not announced ahead of time.
Repeat winners are rare. There have only been four, most recently Colson Whitehead, who won in 2017 for *The Underground Railroad* and again in 2020 for *The Nickel Boys*.
It's more common for winners to be previous finalists. For instance, 2021's winner, Louise Erdich, was a finalist in 2009, and 2019's winner, Richard Power, was a finalist in 2007.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction has not [previously won or been a finalist for](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pulitzer_Prize_for_Fiction) a Pulitzer Prize for Fiction.
Fine Print: In the event there is no Pulitzer Prize for Fiction winner in 2023, this question will be annulled.
In the event that there are multiple winners, this question will resolve as **Yes** if all winners are first-time finalists, **No** if all winners are previous finalists or winners, and **Ambiguous** if it's a mixture.
|
2023-04-27T18:00:00Z
|
2023-05-04T18:00:00Z
|
2023-05-08T19:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16420
|
Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?
|
At points, the Indian government has shown a tendency to use military operations around the time of important elections, possibly as a political strategy.
India has not declared a war on Pakistan, but the Indian government has executed two cross-border military operations in response to terrorist attacks, subsequently leveraging them as political tools to garner voter support. The first operation occurred in 2016 when India conducted [‘surgical strikes’](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Indian_Line_of_Control_strike) on terrorist camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, following the [Uri attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Uri_attack) that resulted in the deaths of 19 Indian soldiers. This event coincided with a critical state election in Uttar Pradesh, during which the ruling party campaigned on its tough stance against Pakistan. A similar move was repeated in 2019.
The second operation took place in 2019 when India launched an [airstrike](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Balakot_airstrike) on a suspected militant training facility in Balakot, Pakistan, in response to a [suicide bomber](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Pulwama_attack) killing 40 Indian paramilitary personnel in Pulwama. This operation transpired during the general elections, and the ruling party once again emphasized its national security credentials while accusing the opposition of being soft on terrorism. These incidents suggest the possibility that India might initiate another military intervention against Pakistan before the next elections, particularly if faced with a similar provocation or a decline in popularity.
The next Indian general elections are expected to be held in [April or May, 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Indian_general_election).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if the Indian government or military conducts a military intervention in Pakistan prior to the 2024 Indian General Election.
Fine Print: The [2024 Indian General Election](the members of the 18th Lok Sabha) is the election of the members of the 18th Lok Sabha. If no such election is held in 2024, the question will be **annulled**. Any military intervention before voting ends will be considered for resolution purposes.
A "military intervention in Pakistan" is defined as:
1. Any military action by land, air, sea, or space, that goes beyond [routine cross-border shelling](https://carnegieindia.org/2022/02/24/bordering-on-peace-evaluating-impact-of-india-pakistan-ceasefire-pub-86513) across the Line of Control.
2. Any cyber attack.
3. A drone attack.
The intervention does not need to be successful for the question to resolve **Yes**.
For a **Yes** resolution, responsibility for the attack must be claimed by the Indian government or military. Interventions that are not claimed by the government, such as those that do not use Indian insignia or that are conducted by rogue military or cyber groups, are not sufficient.
Isolated accidents acknowledged as such by the Indian government, like missile misfires or plane crashes across the border, also will not count.
Military intervention in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir/Azad Kashmir would also resolve the question to **Yes.**
The resolution dates will be updated as soon as the schedule for the Indian General Elections is released.
|
2023-04-24T19:31:00Z
|
2024-05-01T06:30:00Z
|
2024-06-01T16:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16411
|
Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?
|
Rishi Sunak’s [first speech](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-minister-rishi-sunaks-statement-25-october-2022) as Prime Minister of the UK on October 25, 2022 highlighted his desire to lead a government that will bring back professionalism and accountability, in contrast to the two previous governments, led by Truss and Johnson respectively:
> The government I lead will not leave the next generation, your children and grandchildren, with a debt to settle that we were too weak to pay ourselves.
> I will unite our country, not with words, but with action.
> I will work day in and day out to deliver for you.
> This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level.
One way that Sunak has demonstrated his desire for his government to be seen as living up to that goal is by sacking Nadhim Zahawi in [early 2023](https://www.independent.co.uk/business/sunak-stresses-commitment-to-integrity-following-zahawi-sacking-b2271847.html) for breach of ministerial code. Similarly, in April 2023, Deputy PM Dominic Raab [resigned following the outcome of a bullying investigation](https://www.independent.co.uk/business/sunak-stresses-commitment-to-integrity-following-zahawi-sacking-b2271847.html) before Sunak could sack him, as [had been speculated would happen](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/dominic-raab-prime-minister-rishi-sunak-dave-penman-deputy-prime-minister-b2323922.html).
While ministerial resignation/sackings can be a sign of the above drive for more accountability, they can also indicate growing dissatisfaction within the party with the actions by the Prime Minister, as was the case with Boris Johnson, where [more than 50 members of Parliament resigned from his government in less than 2 days](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/uk-government-resignations-hit-50-as-pm-boris-johnson-clings-to-power.html).
Tracking ministerial resignations is thus important for a variety of reasons and may provide some evidence into the functioning of a government. So far, four ministers have resigned under Sunak:
| Surname | Ministerial title | Date | Reason |
|---------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|---------------------------------------------------|
| Williamson | Minister without portfolio | 9/11/22 | Resigned after allegations of misbehaviour |
| Stedman-Scott | Parliamentary Under Secretary of State | 1/1/23 | Personal reasons |
| Zahawi | Minister without portfolio (party chair) | 29/1/23 | Sacked - breach of ministerial code |
| Raab | Secretary of State for Justice, Lord Chancellor, and Deputy PM | 21/4/23 | Resigned following outcome of bullying investigation |
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the total number of ministerial resignations (including sackings) during Rishi Sunak’s government exceeds 10 before 2024.
If Rishi Sunak calls for snap elections and forms a new government, the total number of resignations in his first government will count.
Resignations include sackings, resignations based on personal reasons, resignations following internal investigations, and all other similar reasons.
Government reshuffles do not count for this question.
This question will resolve based on the [IFO’s](https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/) [tracker of ministerial resignations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gVHNx4kzXd947AFfQGiJg5zJrdNXrM81t2OC8UJFnw8/edit#gid=0). If this tracker is no longer updated, credible media reports will be used.
|
2023-04-28T02:25:00Z
|
2023-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16409
|
Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?
|
On April 30th, Paraguayan citizens head to the polls to elect their next president with ripples likely to be felt around the world.
Leading candidate, Santiago Peña, represents the Colorado Party, which has been in power for much of the last century, including the current President Mario Abdo Benítez. Of global note, this party supports Taiwan's independence, as one of only [13 formal diplomatic allies.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/17/taiwan-in-the-hot-seat-during-paraguay-presidential-elections)
However, leading opposition candidate, Efraín Alegre, of the more centrist Authentic Radical Liberal Party (PLRA) has said, "...he will break ties with Taiwan if elected and recognize the People’s Republic of China instead."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** on the basis of an official election result published by a credible news source or government agency that clearly states that Santiago Peña has been declared the winner and president of Paraguay.
If the election is significantly postponed (held after May 1, 2023 or later) or otherwise cancelled, this question will be annulled.
|
2023-04-21T16:00:00Z
|
2023-04-29T18:00:00Z
|
2023-05-01T08:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16327
|
Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?
|
[Freedom in the World](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_in_the_World) is a yearly report that measures the degree of civil liberties and political rights in the different countries in the World. It is published by the NGO Freedom House.
Each country gets two scores: one for civil liberties and the other for political rights. The scale of the scores is 1-7, where 1 is the best score (highest degree of liberty/rights) and 7 is the worst. If the sum of the country’s two scores is 5 or lower, it is rated as (Fully) Free. If it’s greater than 5 but lower than 11, it’s rated as Partly Free. If it’s 11 or more, it’s rated as Not Free.
Israel has always been rated as (Fully) Free in the report, since the first report (1973). In the [latest report](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2023-03/FIW_World_2023_DigtalPDF.pdf), that was published in March 2023 and covers the year of 2022, Israel’s score for Civil liberties was 3 and its score for Political Rights was 2. The sum of the two scores is 5, hence making [Israel rated as Free](https://freedomhouse.org/country/israel/freedom-world/2023) . Currently, 84 countries are rated Free, 54 are rated Partly Free and 47 are rated Not Free.
Israel’s scores have been declining in recent years. While in the years 2006 to 2017 Israel’s Civil Liberties score was 2 and its score for Political Rights was 1, Since 2018 the scores declined. In 2019 it got to scores of 2 and 3, which remained since then. This level of scores had not been seen in Israel since the 1977 report. However, the declines have not been enough to change Israel’s rating, which remains Free.
In November 2022 a new government was elected. The new government, formed in the last days of December 2022, contains some far-right elements.
In January 2023 the government started legislating a [judicial reform](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871), that strip some power from the judicial system. In response, mass protests and strikes erupted. The reforms would grant the government control over judge appointments and limit the Supreme Court's ability to strike down legislation deemed unconstitutional.
In late March 2023, [Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a temporary pause](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/27/middleeast/israel-judicial-overhaul-protests-intl/index.html) to the legislation. The main opposition parties welcomed the decision very cautiously. The street demonstrations did not stop, however, as many participants denounced the freeze as temporary.
The attempts to legislate the judicial reform are not yet reflected in the latest Freedom in the World report, as it covers the year of 2022 and the legislation began in January 2023. The next report, covering the year 2023, is supposed to be published in early 2024. It is uncertain whether the judicial reform will pass until then, and if it does – what would its effect on Israel’s freedom ratings be.
More information about the [reform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform) and [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform_protests) can be found on Wikipedia.
Resolution Criteria: Questions resolves as "Yes" if in the 2024 edition of Freedom in the World Report, covering the year 2023, Israel's rating will remain "Free".
|
2023-05-13T23:32:00Z
|
2024-01-01T10:00:00Z
|
2024-02-29T05:23:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16168
|
Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?
|
Born in 1933, [Dianne Feinstein](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dianne_Feinstein) has been serving as a US Senator since 1992.
Despite announcing her intention [not to seek re-election in 2024](https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?id=7749771D-9314-4884-A75D-D9DE7181D372#:~:text=Feinstein%3A%20Will%20Not%20Run%20for,United%20States%20Senator%20for%20California), recent health concerns and increasing public pressure have fueled speculation about her potential resignation. At the age of 89, Feinstein has experienced extended medical absences and reportedly exhibited signs of senility, which has [raised concerns](https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/13/23681758/dianne-feinstein-calls-to-resign-age-judges) about her ability to fulfill her duties in the Senate.
As many votes in the current Senate rely on a single Senator's decision, her absence has had [significant implications](https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/politics/biden-judges-senate-blue-slips-absences/index.html) on proceedings, such as the confirmations of federal judges.
In the event of her resignation, the Governor of California would appoint a temporary replacement until the 2024 election determines a full-term successor.
Resolution Criteria: If Senator Feinstein resigns before the end of her current term, this question will resolve **Yes**.
Fine Print: Feinstein must resign for a **Yes** resolution. If Senator Feinstein leaves office for another reason, that will not be sufficient for the question to resolve **Yes**.
|
2023-04-21T13:00:00Z
|
2025-01-03T20:00:00Z
|
2023-09-29T13:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16164
|
Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?
|
Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.
Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.
On September 21, 2022, Russian President [Vladimir Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying
>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is at least one fatality due to a nuclear detonation (excluding [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion)) before January 1, 2025. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**.
Fine Print: Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports.
Any qualifying nuclear detonation must occur less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.
For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear weapon" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called "[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)").
|
2023-04-19T14:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T18:00:00Z
|
2025-01-02T14:29:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16157
|
Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?
|
On March 9, 2023, Elon Musk incorporated a new AI company called [X.AI](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23684005/elon-musk-new-ai-company-x). [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23684005/elon-musk-new-ai-company-x) reports rumors that Musk has purchased thousands of Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) to build an AI product.
In an interview with [Fox News' Tucker Carlson](https://www.foxnews.com/media/elon-musk-sits-down-tucker-carlson-exclusive-two-part-interview-event), Musk said:
> AI is more dangerous than, say, mismanaged aircraft design or production maintenance or bad car production In the sense that it has the potential, however small one may regard that probability, but it is non-trivial, it has the potential of civilization destruction.
Musk was also a signatory of the [Future of Life Institute's open letter](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/), published March 22, 2023, which stated that "AI systems with human-competitive intelligence can pose profound risks to society and humanity", calling for a 6-month pause on training larger AI models than [GPT-4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-4).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if an AI lab which receives funding from Elon Musk releases a large language model at any time between April 1, 2023 to January 1, 2024. A model will be considered "released" if a general member of the public can access the model, either though a paid subscription, a waitlist, or through immediate free access. The model may be accessed through a web interface, an API, or by accessing its open source code. There are no requirements on the architecture, parameter count, or estimated training cost of the model; a model will qualify if responds to natural language text with natural language text.
There are no requirements on the amount of funding Musk provides to the AI lab, so long as this information is public and not disputed by either Musk or the AI lab. This question will exclude all of the following labs (as well as any of their partners and subsidiaries) regardless of whether they receive any funding by Elon Musk:
* [OpenAI](https://openai.com/)
* [DeepMind](https://www.deepmind.com/) / [Google Brain](https://research.google/teams/brain/)
* [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/)
* [Meta AI / Facebook AI Research](https://ai.facebook.com/)
|
2023-04-19T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T18:00:00Z
|
2023-12-08T03:55:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16033
|
Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?
|
Disc golf tournaments have emerged as a popular competitive sport, leading to an increase in the number and scale of [professional disc golf tournaments](https://www.dgpt.com/) worldwide.
The *[Play It Again Sports Jonesboro Open](https://www.dgpt.com/event/jonesboro-open-2023/)* runs from April 28-30th and attracts the best players in the sport. The [Disc Golf Network](https://www.discgolfnetwork.com/jonesboro-open/) describes it as, "...one of the longest, most challenging courses on tour. Highlighting huge, mature trees and the rolling hills of Jonesboro, Arkansas, the Jonesboro Open has become a favorite of many touring professionals."
Kristin Tattar and Calvin Heimburg won the Jonesboro Open [last year](https://www.jonesboroopen.com/past-winners).
So far this year, in FPO, Kristin Tattar has been dominant; ranking first in UDisc World and Statmando Multiview combined rankings.
In MPO, Calvin Heimburg ranks first in the Statmando multiview combined rankings, while Gannon Buhr, who rose to the top UDisc World rank after last weekend's tournament, [still considers Calvin to be the top player right now](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRrCgbk1QH4&t…).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **yes** if either or both of Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg place first in the *[Play It Again Sports Jonesboro Open](https://www.jonesboroopen.com/past-winners)*.
|
2023-04-21T16:00:00Z
|
2023-04-28T18:00:00Z
|
2023-05-01T16:59:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16004
|
Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?
|
Google pays Apple, Samsung, and other phone creators [billions of dollars](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-08/google-pays-enormous-sums-to-maintain-its-dominance-doj-says#xj4y7vzkg) to have Google be the default search provider.
On February 7, 2023, Microsoft began rolling out a major overhaul to Bing that included a new chatbot feature based on OpenAI's GPT-4 [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing). On April 17, 2023, [it was reported](https://www.sammobile.com/news/samsung-galaxy-phones-tablets-bing-search-replace-google-default-search-engine/) that Samsung is considering switching to Bing on [Galaxy phones & tablets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samsung_Galaxy), reportedly because of Bing's AI features.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Samsung announces, before October 1 2023, that they will use Bing for at least one major Samsung Galaxy phone model.
Fine Print: The announcement must be made by official Samsung PR. The switch to Bing must be on at least one of the Samsung Galaxy Z, S, A, M, or F series phones that is scheduled to be released within 1 year of the announcement.
The switch to Bing must be active in at least one phone sold in the United States to resolve **Yes**.
The question resolves **Yes** to the date of the announcement.
|
2023-04-18T13:00:00Z
|
2023-09-30T19:00:00Z
|
2023-10-02T03:25:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-16003
|
Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?
|
On February 7, 2023, Microsoft began rolling out a major overhaul to Bing that included a new chatbot feature based on OpenAI's GPT-4 [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing).
On March 21, 2023, Google [opened early access](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/21/23649794/google-chatgpt-rival-bard-ai-chatbot-access-hands-on) to "Bard", a Large Language Model (LLM) similar to GPT-4. This service is distinct from both Google Search and the Google Assistant.
On April 17, [various tech outlets reported](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/17/23686108/google-ai-search-tools-magi-chatgpt-bing-samsung-deal) that Google will "release new AI-powered search tools next month". The New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/16/technology/google-search-engine-ai.html) "the new features will be available exclusively in the US, and will be released initially to a maximum of one million users".
This question asks whether (a) these AI-powered search tools will include responses from a Large Language Model, and (b) whether they are available to all US users by July 30, more than the <1M US users that Google is expecting by mid-May.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if most US users can reliably give Google queries that return LLM results before August 1, 2023.
Fine Print: - If unclear whether the feature is available for all US users or for what subset of queries, Metaculus admins in the US will verify by seeing whether they can reliably trigger it themselves.
- Whether Google "returns LLM results" will be determined by their nature, i.e. several sentences of text (possibly with links embedded throughout), as opposed to a current typical Google search result with a link on top and a fixed summary of the content below. A telltale sign will be if the interface is conversational.
|
2023-04-19T13:00:00Z
|
2023-07-30T19:00:00Z
|
2023-08-01T20:29:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15973
|
Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?
|
On April 14th, SpaceX [received a launch license](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15688/starship-launch-license-before-apr-15-2023/) for its [Starship spacecraft](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). A launch [scheduled for April 17th](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-rocket-super-heavy-launch-what-time) was scrubbed due to a [frozen valve](https://www.npr.org/2023/04/17/1170355237/watch-live-spacex-launch-starship-rocket). SpaceX CEO Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1647955325763592193):
> Learned a lot today, now offloading propellant, retrying in a few days …
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if Starship leaves the launchpad intact and under its own power before 11:59pm ET on Sunday, April 30th.
|
2023-04-17T21:00:00Z
|
2023-04-30T18:00:00Z
|
2023-04-20T13:35:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15965
|
Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?
|
On April 15, 2023, [fighting erupted in Sudan](https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/15/africa/sudan-presidential-palace-intl/index.html) between the paramilitary [Rapid Support Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces) (RSF) and the Sudanese army. Sudan has been under military control since a [coup in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Sudanese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), governed by a body known as the [Transitional Sovereignty Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transitional_Sovereignty_Council) (TSC), whose control was reaffirmed by [another coup in 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sudan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat). The TSC is led by [Abdel Fattah al-Burhan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdel_Fattah_al-Burhan), Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces. The position of deputy chairman of the TSC is held by [Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemedti), generally referred to as "Hemedti", who is the commander of the RSF.
[Unwilling to cede influence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/23712710/sudan-war-khartoum-burhan-hemedt-rsf) amid negotiations over a deal to transition to a civilian government, the two military commanders are now engaged in a battle for control of Sudan.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before June 15, 2023, credible sources report that Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has fled the country or is no longer the *de facto* leader of the Sudanese government. Qualifying reports might describe either another group or individual as the new *de facto* leader, or explicitly refer to al-Burhan as no longer being in power for any reason. If there is no such reporting before June 15, 2023, this question will resolve as **No**. Metaculus will assess the available reports to determine whether they satisfy these criteria, and may resolve as **Ambiguous** if it is unclear if the available reporting satisfies these criteria or if there are conflicting reports.
Fine Print: * Metaculus may wait for confirmation from multiple credible sources before resolving.
* Speculative reporting that does not indicate a change in status (for example, some previous reports have suggested that the RSF leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), [is the *de facto* leader of Sudan](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/06/18/warlord-wrecking-sudans-revolution/)) will not qualify, unless a change to the status quo was also reported.
|
2023-05-11T13:00:00Z
|
2023-06-14T23:00:00Z
|
2023-06-15T14:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15939
|
Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?
|
[Cristina Fernández de Kirchner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cristina_Fern%C3%A1ndez_de_Kirchner) was a two-term president of Argentina from 2007 to 2015, following her late husband Nestor Kirchner's 2003-2007 term. After her party lost the 2015 presidential elections against [Mauricio Marcri](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mauricio_Macri), she briefly retired from the public eye, quickly returning to lead the opposition. She led the 2017 election campaign as a candidate for the Senate for the Buenos Aires Province (where she came second, winning a seat for the minority). In 2019, despite speculations that she might run again as president, she made the surprising move of proposing [Alberto Fernández](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberto_Fern%C3%A1ndez) (no relation) as the candidate for the presidency, while she would join him on the ballot as VP, reasoning that a less polarizing presidential candidate would make for a more appealing ballot. The coalition they formed ended up winning the election, but the existence of factions with different views has led to some infighting and to the estrangement between the president and the VP.
Since the end of her second term, Fernández de Kirchner has faced multiple legal charges. While some of these have been [dismissed](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cristina_Fern%C3%A1ndez_de_Kirchner#Causas_cerradas_por_sobreseimiento), last December a federal court found her guilty on one of them, [sentencing her to six years in prison and disqualifing her from holding public office for life](https://www.improvethenews.org/story/2022/argentina-vp-sentenced-to-six-years-on-corruption-charges).
She denies any wrongdoing and [says the charges are politically motivated](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/cristina-fernandez-de-kirchner-argentina-sentenced-prison-fraud-case), describing the proceedings against her as [law-fare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawfare), which political analysts in the region describe as a form of “political warfare” involving politicians, the judiciary and the media, usually with a view to smearing leftist leaders as corrupt.
Her political sector blames this smearing as the root of last September's [assessination attempt](https://www.improvethenews.org/story/2022/argentina-vicepresident-escapes-gun-attack), where a man managed to [hold a gun against her head and pull the trigger twice](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DN02JkHCJwI).
Even though Fernández de Kirchner will appeal the court's decision, which could take years to resolve, she announced that she wouldn't be running for any office in next year's elections, although this would leave Fernández de Kirchner without immunity from arrest after leaving office. However, after this announcement was made, the political organizations that respond to Fernández de Kirchner have been campaigning for her and [clamoring for her to be president](https://en.mercopress.com/2022/11/05/cristina-fernandez-reappears-in-public-in-electoral-mode-as-crowds-called-her-president) in numerous public appearances.
There is still time to define the candidates for this year's national elections. The deadline for coalitions to present their candidates is June 24th. After that, the candidates of each coalition will compete in [Simultaneous Open Primaries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blanket_primary#Argentina) held during August 13th, whose results will determine the candidates to compete in the [National Elections held on October 22nd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election), where besides the office of president, members of congress will also be elected.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **yes** if, come the presentation of candidate lists for the primary elections on June 24th, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is included in any of the lists, either for president, senator or congresswoman.
Fine Print: - If Fernández de Kirchner presents herself on June 24th but her presentation is later questioned or contested, this will still resolve as **yes**, since her decision to run would have been evident.
- If, on the other hand, a new development prevents Fernández de Kirchner from even making it to the list presentation (such as all court appeal instances being exhausted), then this will resolve as **no**.
|
2023-04-17T13:45:00Z
|
2023-06-23T15:00:00Z
|
2023-06-25T13:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15851
|
Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?
|
[Amritpal Singh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amritpal_Singh) is the disputed leader of [Waris Punjab De](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waris_Punjab_De), an organization promoting the [Khalistan movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalistan_movement) in India. The Khalistan movement seeks to establish a sovereign state, named Khalistan, to be a home for Sikhs in the Indian state of [Punjab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punjab,_India).
Amritpal Singh has been accused by the Indian government of [stockpiling weapons and promoting violence](https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/khalistani-leader-amritpal-singh-waris-punjab-de-rehab-centres-human-bombs-gun-culture-punjab-2348956-2023-03-20) as well as [having contact](https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/amritpal-singh-maintaining-close-links-with-isi-terror-groups-sources-123031800844_1.html) with [Pakistani intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter-Services_Intelligence).
In March of 2023, Indian authorities [began a crackdown on Amritpal Singh's supporters and Waris Punjab De](https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/20/india/india-separatist-manhunt-internet-shutdown-intl-hnk/index.html), in the process arresting over one hundred people and blocking internet access for millions of people in Punjab. On April 10, 2023, it was reported that Papalpreet Singh, an aide to Amritpal Singh, [had been arrested](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chandigarh/papalpeet-singh-pro-khalistan-fugitive-amritpal-singhs-close-aide-arrested-by-delhi-police/articleshow/99375414.cms). As of April 11, 2023, Amritpal Singh has not yet been captured.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 21, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Amritpal Singh is in Indian custody. If Amritpal Singh dies before being taken into custody this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2023-04-13T18:00:00Z
|
2023-04-21T04:00:00Z
|
2023-04-21T13:24:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15849
|
Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?
|
Mariupol is a city in southeastern Ukraine located on the north coast of the Sea of Azov, which is currently under Russian occupation. Before the Russian 2022 invasion of Ukraine it had a population of over 400,000 residents, and it was an important industrial center in Ukraine. The city came under siege of Russian forces shortly after the start of the invasion. The Ukrainian organized [defence lasted until 20 May 2022 when defenders were ordered to cease fighting](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/17/defenders-of-mariupol-are-the-heroes-of-our-time-the-battle-that-gripped-the-world).
Mariupol is strategically important to Ukraine because it is a major port city and serves as a gateway to the Sea of Azov. It also has a huge symbolic value because [the defence of Mariupol by Ukrainian forces, including their heroic defence of Azovstal, has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance against Russian aggression](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/mariupol-holds-out-against-russias-siege-a-symbol-of-ukrainian-resistance).
<img
src="https://i.postimg.cc/MHQKnhdz/x-K5-ENFg2-Dpci.png" alt="map of Mariupol with the location of city council building" />
*<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 license (CC-BY-SA 2.0)*
<img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png" alt="map of cities in Ukraine" />
*<a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png">Lencer</a>, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0">CC BY-SA 3.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons*
This question and especially its resolution criteria part is based on RyanBeck's [question about Melitopol](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15412/ukraine-control-of-melitopol-at-end-of-2023/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War’s map shows the city council building in Mariupol (47.098697498197204, 37.554345970947786 - Mytropolytska St, 39) as not under either “assessed Russian advance” or “assessed Russian control”. If the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for assessed territory then Metaculus will make a determination according to information provided by ISW or other credible sources.
If at the time of resolution the Mariupol city council building no longer stands at its current location or is fully destroyed, then this question will resolve based on control of the area where the building was located on April 11, 2023.
|
2023-04-12T16:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T22:59:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15835
|
Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?
|
[According to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/postmarket-drug-safety-information-patients-and-providers/questions-and-answers-mifepristone-medical-termination-pregnancy-through-ten-weeks-gestation):
>The FDA first approved Mifeprex (mifepristone) in September 2000 for medical termination of pregnancy through seven weeks gestation and this was extended to ten weeks gestation in 2016. FDA approved a generic version of Mifeprex, Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg, in April 2019.
During the coronavirus pandemic, the FDA temporarily granted approval for patients to receive mifepristone by mail. This change was [later made permanent](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/fda-permanently-allow-abortion-pills-mail-major-win-advocates-n1286183).
<img src="https://www.guttmacher.org/sites/default/files/2022-11/APCnewimaeg.png" alt="Chart of Share of Abortions That Are Medication Abortions" />
*[Guttmacher Institute, February 2022](https://www.guttmacher.org/article/2022/02/medication-abortion-now-accounts-more-half-all-us-abortions)*
On April 7, 2023, the Northern Texas US [district court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_district_court) issued an [opinion](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.txnd.370067/gov.uscourts.txnd.370067.137.0_14.pdf) in the case *[Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. US Food and Drug Administration](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/65768749/alliance-for-hippocratic-medicine-v-us-food-and-drug-administration/)* which issued a stay of enforcement of the FDA's approval of mifepristone. The opinion stayed the enforcement of its own opinion for seven days, allowing time for the federal government to seek emergency relief from the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.
Shortly after on the same day, the Eastern Washington US district court issued an [opinion](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.waed.102225/gov.uscourts.waed.102225.80.0_1.pdf) in the case *[State of Washington v. US Food and Drug Administration](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/66841644/state-of-washington-v-united-states-food-and-drug-administration/)* which enjoined the FDA from
>altering the status quo and rights as it relates to the availability of
Mifepristone under the current operative January 2023 Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy under 21 U.S.C. § 355-1 in Plaintiff States.
The conflicting orders [are expected](https://apnews.com/article/abortion-pill-lawsuit-mifepristone-misoprostol-kacsmaryk-74cb1c4cfab2c04f6cf2696151bc86ef) to require resolution by higher courts.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion is no longer in effect for any period of time, according to information available from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). A stay, injunction, suspension, or revocation would all qualify, even if only temporarily in effect. This question is concerned with the FDA approval of all brands of mifepristone which have been approved for medication abortion, suspension of only the later expansions of access is irrelevant for the purposes of this question. If on July 1 only one brand of mifepristone has had its approval for abortion suspended while others are still approved this question will resolve as **No**.
FDA approvals of other medicines using mifepristone which have not been approved for medication abortion (for example [Korlym](https://www.drugs.com/korlym.html)) are irrelevant for the purposes of this question. For the question to resolve as **Yes**, FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion must no longer be in effect nationwide, if the FDA approval for at least one brand of mifepristone for abortion is still in effect in any state for the duration of this question it will resolve as **No**.
|
2023-04-12T17:42:00Z
|
2023-07-01T04:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T16:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15815
|
Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?
|
The [Clean Air Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_(United_States)ss) (CAA) is the broad name given to the United States' air quality laws, which are administered by the [Environmental Protection Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Environmental_Protection_Agency) (EPA). Originally passed in 1963, the CAA has been [amended numerous times](https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/evolution-clean-air-act). The CAA prevents states from imposing their own emissions regulations for new vehicles, with an exception that states [which had imposed vehicle emissions regulations prior to March 30, 1966](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30853) may apply for a waiver to enforce their own emissions regulations contingent on the regulations being more stringent than the national regulations, along with several other conditions.
As the only state meeting the date requirement, California is uniquely positioned to adopts its own emissions regulations. Additionally, the [CAA permits other states](https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/vehicle-emissions-california-waivers-and-authorizations#:~:text=subpart%20B%2C%20%C2%A7%201074.105.-,State%20Adoption%20of%20California%20Standards,-The%20Clean%20Air) to adopt, without federal review, emissions regulations imposed by California which have been granted a waiver by the EPA.
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) [says the following](https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/california-waiver-facts) about the history of its waiver applications (emphasis theirs):
>**No waiver has ever been revoked and the one previous denial was quickly reversed.** There is no Clean Air Act process for revoking a waiver – which makes sense because governments and industry rely on waivers for years after they are granted to deliver clean vehicles and develop clean air plans. Even waiver denial is incredibly rare. The one time this occurred, in 2008, the U.S. EPA initially denied California’s waiver for GHG emission standards for 2009 and later model year light-duty motor vehicles. That denial was reversed when the U.S. EPA reconsidered it, and ultimately granted it.
Details about prior waivers are available at [this EPA page](https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/vehicle-emissions-california-waivers-and-authorizations).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 21, 2025, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) grants California a waiver to implement its proposed Advanced Clean Cars II (ACCII) in its entirety. If at the time of resolution only part of ACCII has previously been granted a waiver by the EPA then this question will resolve as **No**. This will resolve when a waiver has been granted as described, later revocation of the waiver is irrelevant for the purposes of this question.
|
2023-04-07T12:05:00Z
|
2025-01-21T05:00:00Z
|
2024-12-17T05:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15796
|
Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?
|
After the [Russian's invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in February 2022, Russia has been subject to a large amount of international pressure. That pressure has taken many different forms; [sanctions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10266/russia-sanctions-1-year-after-invasion/), [boycotts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_boycott_of_Russia_and_Belarus), protests, oil and gas embargoes, corporate divestment, and more. Many individuals, corporations, and countries have taking action to show international solidarity with Ukraine.
In the sporting world, Russia has been banned from a number of recent international events. On Feb 28th 2022, four days after Russia invaded, FIFA made an unprecedented decision to [ban Russian clubs and the national team from all competitions](https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/worldcup/qatar2022/media-releases/fifa-uefa-suspend-russian-clubs-and-national-teams-from-all-competitions) including the World Cup.
> Football is fully united here and in full solidarity with all the people affected in Ukraine. Both Presidents [FIFA and UEFA] hope that the situation in Ukraine will improve significantly and rapidly so that football can again be a vector for unity and peace amongst people.
In 2023, the IOC (International Olympic Committee) has reiterated their position several times [[1]](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/q-a-on-solidarity-with-ukraine-sanctions-against-russia-and-belarus-and-the-status-of-athletes-from-these-countries)[[2]](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/q-a-on-solidarity-with-ukraine-sanctions-against-russia-and-belarus-and-the-status-of-athletes-from-these-countries) that Russian and Belarusian athletes can only compete as Individual Neutral Athletes.
Despite IOC recommendations Poland banned Russian and Belarusian athletes from [the 2023 European Games](https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/03/29/russians-and-belarusians-banned-from-european-games-in-poland-despite-ioc-recommendations/). In Paris, the 2024 Olympic host city, event organizers [cancelled a World Cup fencing event](https://apnews.com/article/fencing-france-russia-ukraine-2821983e726628c8bbf21e1eb8dd8c76) after the FIE (International Fencing Federation) [decision](https://apnews.com/article/fencing-russia-ukraine-olympics-9754e17d554df4484c609248019bd1a9) to allow Russian athletes to resume competing one year after the invasion of Ukraine.
Looking back at previous Olympics, Russia's Track and Field team was [barred from the 2016 Olympics](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/18/sports/olympics/russia-barred-rio-summer-olympics-doping.html) over a decade long doping scandal. 68 Athletes filled appeals that were ultimately [dismissed by the Court of Arbitration for Sport](https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/russians-lose-track-appeal-ioc-weigh-total-ban-rio), though [some](https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1133394/russia-ana-athletics) Russian athletes were able to compete as 'Authorized Neutral Athletes'. At the 2016 Paralympics the entire Russian Paralympic team was banned over the same doping scandal.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Russian athletes are barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics under either (i) the Russian flag, (ii) The Russian Olympic Committee's flag, or (iii) any other independent or neutral flag. This will resolve based on the official list of countries and athletes present at the [2024 Olympics](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/paris-2024) or based on credible media reports, indicating that the 2024 Olympics are underway or have concluded without Russian participation. For the question to resolve as **Yes**, no more than 34 Russians can be competing at the 2024 Olympics. 34 was chosen as 10% of [Russian athletes that participated in the 2020 Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Olympic_Committee_athletes_at_the_2020_Summer_Olympics) to allow for a few individual or sport specific exceptions.
If more than 34 Russian athletes compete at the 2024 Olympics, this question will resolve as **No**.
If the 2024 Olympics are cancelled or postponed to 2025 or afterwards, this question resolves as ambiguously.
|
2023-04-17T16:47:00Z
|
2024-07-26T19:00:00Z
|
2024-07-26T20:11:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15778
|
Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?
|
On March 30, 2023, Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, was [charged](https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-indictment-criminal-charges.html) with [34 felony counts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictment_of_Donald_Trump) associated with falsifying business records. The indictments by a Manhattan grand jury stem from his alleged role in hush money payments to actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election. With the indictment, Trump became the [first president - former or current - charged with criminal activity](https://www.npr.org/2023/04/05/1168256845/donald-trump-becomes-the-first-president-charged-with-criminal-activity#:~:text=Raedle%2FGetty%20Images-,Donald%20Trump%20has%20become%20the%20first%20president%20%E2%80%93%20former%20or%20current,had%20sexual%20encounters%20with%20him.). On April 4th he [pleaded not-guilty](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/04/trump-surrenders-00090361).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if Donald Trump is found guilty in *The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump* before Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
Fine Print: - The question resolves upon the verdict, and does not require a sentencing ruling.
- A guilty verdict must come from the Manhattan indictment (*The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump*), not from any other case.
- Crimes can include adjusted charges from the original 34 charges, and the guilty verdict need not be for felony charges.
- A guilty plea as part of a plea deal is sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.
- An [Alford Plea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alford_plea) is sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.
- If the investigation ends with a guilty verdict, but Trump is pardoned, this will still resolve **Yes**.
- An appeals process does not prevent a **Yes** resolution.
|
2023-04-17T01:27:00Z
|
2024-11-04T20:00:00Z
|
2024-05-30T21:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15765
|
Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?
|
[Armiansk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armiansk) is a town in northern Crimea. It has been under Russian control since 2014 when Russia [seized and annexed the Crimean peninsula](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation).
Ukraine, preparing for a [likely spring counteroffensive](https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-tensions-rise-in-crimea-as-russia-prepares-for-a-likely-spring-offensive-202636), would [like to](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/26/europe/war-in-crimea-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html) retake Crimea, which could be a "[red line](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/15/blinken-crimea-ukraine-putin-00083149)" for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
On April 3, 2023, *The Washington Post* reported that "[a web of trenches shows Russia fears losing Crimea](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/ukraine-russia-crimea-battle-trenches/)." [ISW reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-3-2023) specific defensive preparations near Armiansk.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if the [ISW map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the Armiansk railway station is under Ukrainian control at any point before July 1, 2023. Forecasters can find the location of the station by clicking the magnifying glass on the top left corner of the map and searching for "Armiansk railway station."
Fine Print: - Control will be indicated by the ISW category "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives," as well as any other category ISW introduces that indicates Ukrainian control of territory.
- The ISW category "reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare" is not sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.
|
2023-04-12T16:00:00Z
|
2023-06-30T18:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15762
|
Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?
|
On March 27, Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1640502698549075972):
>Starting April 15th, only verified accounts will be eligible to be in For You recommendations. The is the only realistic way to address advanced AI bot swarms taking over. It is otherwise a hopeless losing battle. **Voting in polls will require verification for same reason.**
Resolution Criteria: If, at noon ET on April 16th, Metaculus admins who are not verified confirm that they can no longer vote in Twitter polls, and public figures who are verified confirm they can, this resolves as **Yes**.
The existence of some polls that can only be voted on by verified users while other polls are available for all users to vote on will be sufficient for this question to resolve as **Yes**.
|
2023-04-09T16:00:00Z
|
2023-04-16T19:00:00Z
|
2023-04-16T16:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15688
|
Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?
|
SpaceX, a leading aerospace manufacturer and space transportation company, has been developing the [Starship spacecraft](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as a next-generation reusable launch vehicle. Designed for missions ranging from Earth orbit to interplanetary travel, Starship has the potential to revolutionize space travel by significantly reducing costs and increasing capabilities. The spacecraft consists of a booster, the Super Heavy, and an upper stage, the Starship, both of which are fully reusable.
Before SpaceX can launch Starship, it must obtain a launch license from the [Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)](https://www.faa.gov/). The FAA is the regulatory body responsible for overseeing the safe and sustainable use of U.S. airspace, which includes licensing commercial space transportation activities. The launch license process involves a thorough evaluation of the vehicle's design, manufacturing, and testing procedures, as well as an assessment of the potential environmental impacts and risks to public safety.
SpaceX is ["tentatively eyeing mid- to late April"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-april-2023-elon-musk) for Starship's first orbital test flight. On March 16, 2023, SpaceX CEO Elon Must [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1636515448970698752) "SpaceX will be ready to launch Starship in a few weeks, then launch timing depends on FAA license approval."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if SpaceX receives a launch license before April 15, 2023, as indicated by:
- A statement from SpaceX or a SpaceX spokesperson
- A statement from the FAA
- At least two credible media reports
|
2023-04-05T18:00:00Z
|
2023-04-14T23:00:00Z
|
2023-04-14T21:50:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15686
|
Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?
|
The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed.
In February 2023, the [rate was 3.6%](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm). The March 2023 unemployment rate is [scheduled to be released on April 7th](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if the the March 2023 U-3 seasonally adjusted
unemployment figure, is less than 3.6% . Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for the listed month by the BLS, typically found [here](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).
|
2023-04-05T18:00:00Z
|
2023-04-07T11:30:00Z
|
2023-04-07T12:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15685
|
Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?
|
[Open AI](https://openai.com/), the maker of GPT models such as GPT-4 and chatGPT, has recently announced a [world tour](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1641181669431611392) to connect with users and developers.
[Current destinations](https://openai.com/form/openai-tour-2023) listed include a heavy focus on Europe and Asia with only a single destination in Africa, South America, and Oceania/Australia each.
Particularly of note is a missing visit to any city in Kenya. This is significant because OpenAI has [faced criticism in the past](https://time.com/6247678/openai-chatgpt-kenya-workers/), for outsourcing sensitive data labeling work to Kenya.
However, the interest form indicates that "Cities are subject to change".
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if there are more two or more African cities listed on [this form](https://openai.com/form/openai-tour-2023) as of 6pm UTC on April 10th.
If that form (or a similar replacement) is not readily available, this question will resolve as **Annulled**.
|
2023-04-05T18:00:00Z
|
2023-04-07T18:00:00Z
|
2023-04-10T18:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15684
|
Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?
|
On March 31st, Italy [temporarily banned ChatGPT](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65139406) over [privacy concerns](https://www.wsj.com/articles/chatgpt-banned-in-italy-over-data-privacy-concerns-4b984e75).
The [announcement of the ban](https://www.gpdp.it/web/guest/home/docweb/-/docweb-display/docweb/9870847#english) states:
>A data breach affecting ChatGPT users’ conversations and information on payments by subscribers to the service had been reported on 20 March...
>In its order, the Italian SA highlights that no information is provided to users and data subjects whose data are collected by Open AI; more importantly, there appears to be no legal basis underpinning the massive collection and processing of personal data in order to ‘train’ the algorithms on which the platform relies.
>As confirmed by the tests carried out so far, the information made available by ChatGPT does not always match factual circumstances, so that inaccurate personal data are processed.
>Finally, the Italian SA emphasizes in its order that the lack of whatever age verification mechanism exposes children to receiving responses that are absolutely inappropriate to their age and awareness, even though the service is allegedly addressed to users aged above 13 according to OpenAI’s terms of service.
>OpenAI is not established in the EU, however it has designated a representative in the European Economic Area. It will have to notify the Italian SA within 20 days of the measures implemented to comply with the order, otherwise a fine of up to EUR 20 million or 4% of the total worldwide annual turnover may be imposed.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible media reports indicate an additional country, other than Italy, has banned ChatGPT for any reason before July 1, 2023.
Fine Print: - If a country bans and then unbans ChatGPT, the question will resolve as **Yes** based on the initial ban.
- If a country announces an unconditional ban that will be effective on a later date, this question resolves to the date of the announcement. The question will resolve **Yes** as long as the ban is announced before July 1, 2023.
- If a ban is announced contingent on OpenAI not meeting certain conditions, the date that either the ban is no longer predicated on conditions or goes into effect will be used for the purposes of this question. If that date is before July 1, 2023, the question will resolve as **Yes**.
- If a country threatens to ban ChatGPT, but does not announce an effective date for an actual ban, that is not sufficient for a positive resolution.
- If a country partially bans ChatGPT - for instance, it bans the use of the GPT-4 model but allows continued use of the basic model - that also is sufficient for **Yes** resolution.
- Bans that are in effect as of April 2, 2023, such as the ban in Italy, do not trigger a **Yes** resolution.
|
2023-04-05T18:00:00Z
|
2023-06-30T18:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15682
|
Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?
|
The [Indian Child Welfare Act (ICWA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Child_Welfare_Act), enacted in 1978, is a federal law designed to protect the best interests of Native American children and promote the stability of their tribes and families.
The establishment of the ICWA came as a response to a painful legacy of the US government separating Native American children from their families and communities. For much of the Nation's history, the US federal government's policy towards Tribes was one of assimilation. The government aimed to encourage assimilation by relocating Native American children to [boarding schools](https://americanindian.si.edu/nk360/code-talkers/boarding-schools/#:~:text=Beginning%20in%20the%20late%20nineteenth,Code%20Talkers%20attended%20boarding%20schools.). This pattern persisted into the mid-20th century, with state-court proceedings deeming children neglected or abandoned without taking their cultural background into account, resulting in placements with non-Native American families. [Studies](https://www.narf.org/nill/documents/icwa/federal/lh/hr1386.pdf) found that "[large numbers of Native children were being separated](https://www.nicwa.org/about-icwa/) from their parents, extended families, and communities by state child welfare and private adoption agencies."
Congress passed the ICWA to address these historical injustices and protect the interests of Native American children and their cultural heritage. Recognizing the unique cultural and social dynamics within Native American communities, the ICWA establishes minimum federal standards for the removal, placement, and adoption of Native American children in state child custody proceedings. It prioritizes keeping children within their tribal community by mandating that preference be given to extended family, tribal members, or other Native American families when placement decisions are made. Additionally, the ICWA requires state courts to collaborate closely with tribal courts to ensure that the rights of Native American children and their families are respected and preserved.
*[Haaland v. Brackeen](https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/11/in-challenge-to-indian-child-welfare-act-court-will-weigh-the-rights-of-states-and-the-role-of-race/)* is a pending Supreme Court case brought by the states of Texas, Louisiana, and Indiana that seeks to declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional. The [plaintiffs argue](https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/11/closely-divided-court-scrutinizes-various-provisions-of-indian-child-welfare-act/) "that ICWA 'flouts the promise of equal justice under the law' by treating Native American children differently."
The Supreme Court [heard arguments](https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/11/closely-divided-court-scrutinizes-various-provisions-of-indian-child-welfare-act/) in the case on November 9, 2022.
According to SCOTUSblog:
>Native American tribes call the law “one of the most important pieces of federal Indian legislation ever enacted,” and they warn that a ruling in favor of the challengers “would work profound harm on Indian children and Tribes.” But Texas, one of the challengers, argues that ICWA “has not achieved its stated ends of improving stability and security among Indian tribes,” so that Native American children covered by ICWA “remain at a greater risk for abuse and neglect than other children.”
Four hundred ninety seven tribes submitted an [amicus brief](https://sct.narf.org/documents/haaland_v_brackeen/amicus_497_tribes.pdf) supporting ICWA as an "appropriate exercise of Congress's authority that directly support[s] tribal sovereignty and self-government and furthur[s] the best interest of Indian children." The tribes warned that overturning ICWA would "threaten to rewrite the relationship between Congress and hundreds of Federally Recognized Tribes." Ruling that the ICWA is unconstitutional could have widespread ramifications, with some legal scholars warning that such a ruling could [call into question](https://www.law.uw.edu/news-events/news/2022/stacey-lara) hundreds of treaties between the federal government and sovereign tribal nations.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the majority opinion in *Haaland v. Brackeen* declares any part of the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional.
|
2023-04-05T18:00:00Z
|
2023-06-30T18:00:00Z
|
2023-06-15T14:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15665
|
Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?
|
Virginia State Code § 2.2-2472 (A.9), [requires](https://www.vedp.org/sites/default/files/voee/Virginia_High_Demand_Occupations_List_2021-2022_Full.pdf) the Virginia Board of Workforce Development (VBWD) to publish a list of jobs, trades, and professions for which high demand for qualified workers exists or is projected.
The list is published by the [Virginia Office for Education Economics](https://www.vedp.org/voee). The methodology includes metrics of job growth, attractiveness, and Virginia institutional recognition of importance. Inclusion in the list would indicate real demand for epidemiologists and/or Virginia institutional commitment to epidemiologists. Epidemiologists are a core role in public health, and in disease preparedness and response.
The [Standard Occupational Classification System Code](https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_stru.htm#19-0000) for Epidemiologists is 19-1041, under 19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations. Epidemiologists were not in the [2021-2022 High Demand Occupations List](https://www.vedp.org/sites/default/files/voee/Virginia_High_Demand_Occupations_List_2021-2022_Full.pdf) (see pages 4-5).
A new list is scheduled for publication in Fall 2023.
Resolution Criteria: This will resolve as **Yes** if the VBWD has "Epidemiologists" on its [High Demand Occupations List](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/heather.mckay/viz/Beta-HDOccsv2_16357984270930/OccupationalProfiles) in the report published in Fall 2023.
Fine Print: If no report is published before 1 January 2024, this will resolve as ambiguous.
|
2023-03-31T20:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T17:00:00Z
|
2023-12-19T14:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15664
|
Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?
|
VDH tracks the number of [new COVID-19 cases](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) by report date, which it [currently](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/dashboardschedule/) updates weekly.
VDH [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:
> “monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”
This question asks whether the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases or COVID-like illness visits during summer 2023 (June, July, August) will exceed the previous winter’s peak (December, January, February). This is important for seasonal planning and staffing purposes.
The 2022-2023 winter peak of COVID-19 cases was [2,457](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) and the 2022-2023 winter peak of COVID-like illness visits was [11,631](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/)
Resolution Criteria: This will resolve positively if at any point during the 2023 summer months of June, July, or August the [7-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases(“Cases by Report Date”)](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) **or** COVID-like illness [(“ED Visits for COVID-Like Illness (CLI) (weekly counts)”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) exceeds the peak of the winter (December 2022, January 2023, February 2023).
|
2023-03-31T20:00:00Z
|
2023-10-01T16:00:00Z
|
2023-10-02T20:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15656
|
Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?
|
On 15/16 March 2023, the WHO [updated](https://www.who.int/news/item/16-03-2023-statement-on-the-update-of-who-s-working-definitions-and-tracking-system-for-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-and-variants-of-interest) its tracking system and [working definitions](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) for SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern to take to account for the dominance and variance of the Omicron variant and its sublineages. The new definitions mean that Omicron sublineages will be considered independently as Variants under Monitoring, Variants of Interest, or Variants of Concern. As a result of these changes, the Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 was classified as a Variant of Interest.
The emergence of new variants has been associated with COVID-19 case and hospitalization surges, and with the efficacy of treatments and vaccinations.
Resolution Criteria: This will resolve as **Yes** if, before 1 January 2024, WHO identifies a new Variant of Concern on their ["Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants" page](https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants).
|
2023-03-31T20:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T17:00:00Z
|
2024-01-04T17:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15651
|
Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?
|
The [Department of Homeless Services (DHS)](https://www.nyc.gov/site/dhs/about/inside-dhs.page) is a New York City agency dedicated to preventing homelessness, addressing street homelessness, providing temporary shelter, and connecting individuals to suitable housing through collaboration with not-for-profit partners. With an annual budget of over $2 billion and 2,000 employees, DHS aims help clients transition from shelters to self-sufficiency. The agency's critical objectives include preventing households from becoming homeless, reducing street homelessness, ensuring temporary shelter availability, increasing client engagement, maintaining shelter safety, and reducing shelter stays to promote stable community housing. According to the [DHS data](https://data.world/ian/nyc-department-of-homeless-services-daily-report/workspace/file?filename=DHS_Daily_Report.csv), NYC homeless individuals in shelter (run by the DHS) in 2022 ranged from 45,213 on January 1 to 66,334 on Dec 31. As of writing this question in late March 2023, the low for 2023 was 66,564 on Jan 1, with a high of 72,522 on March 28.
This increase in individuals using DHS homeless shelters has been acknowledged by the [local government](https://citylimits.org/2023/01/17/nycs-homeless-shelter-population-ballooned-in-2022-how-will-leaders-address-the-crisis-this-year/), which has promised to increase funding to [homeless services](https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc+increase+funding+for+homelessness&oq=nyc+increase+funding+for+homelessness&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i546l2j0i546i649.4126j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8).
> The dramatic uptick last year was fueled, experts and officials say, by the ongoing financial impact of the pandemic, the end of statewide eviction protections last year, rising rents, understaffed government agencies, a shortage of truly affordable housing and the arrival since last spring of more than 40,000 asylum seekers from the southern border that lawmakers say has strained the city's resources.
> In recent months, Mayor Adams has emphasized the uptick in migrants seeking shelter as the main force driving the city's homeless population, prompting the administration to open 74 emergency shelters in addition to the HERRC sites, including a short-lived, barracks-style tent facility on Randall's Island.
> "We are now seeing more people arrive than we have ever seen—averaging over 400 people each day this last week, with 835 asylum seekers arriving on one single day alone, the largest single day arrival we’ve seen to date. All this is pushing New York City to the brink," the mayor said Saturday, as he prepared to travel to El Paso, Texas to meet with local leaders along the border firsthand. "We are at our breaking point."
Resolution Criteria: The resolution source is the [NYC Department of Homeless Services Daily Report](https://data.world/ian/nyc-department-of-homeless-services-daily-report). To resolve this question, download the ‘DHS_Daily_Report.csv’ on January 2, 2024 (or later, if data for December 31, 2023 is not yet available). Then, select the 2023 data and sort ‘total_individuals_in_shelter’. If any day of 2023 shows a number higher than 100,000, this question resolves positively. If it is not, this question resolves negatively. If the DHS ceases publication of this data series, this question resolves ambiguously.
Fine Print: To access the resolution source, you have to make an account, though this is cheap and quick and should be possible for anyone interested in forecasting (or resolving) this question.
|
2023-04-15T01:20:00Z
|
2023-09-30T11:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:50:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15641
|
Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?
|
In early 2023, mass protests and strikes erupted in Israel over the government's plans to strip power from judges. The [reforms](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65086871) would grant the government control over judge appointments and limit the Supreme Court's ability to strike down legislation deemed unconstitutional.
In late March 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a [temporary pause]( https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/03/27/israel-netanyahu-judicial-reform-delay-halt/11548416002/) to the judicial changes, leading to a divided response. The larger opposition parties cautiously welcomed the decision, while leaders of the street demonstrations denounced it as a temporary freeze. As the [Financial Times reported on March 28:](https://www.ft.com/content/9e33f942-6125-428c-8a7a-a2dcf85a300e)
> Benjamin Netanyahu bowed to public pressure on Monday and delayed the contentious judicial reform he and his extremist partners have championed. With Israel paralysed by mass protests and strikes, he acknowledged the risk of civil war. The crisis is not over, however. The Israeli prime minister’s language made clear he intends his decision as a tactical pause to quiet the civil disobedience. Netanyahu is buying time.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Israel is listed as having been in ‘Civil War’, ‘Civil War/Terrorist Insurgency’, or ‘Civil War/Drug War’ for any time in 2023 according to the [‘WPR Countries Currently at War’](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-currently-at-war) list.
This question also resolves as **Yes** there is overwhelming global consensus that Israel is experiencing civil war. This is operationalised as fulfilling both of the following conditions: 1) The BBC and the New York Times report Israel as experiencing civil war. 2) The US and the EU officially make a statement, referring to Israel as experiencing civil war.
Fine Print: Because the main resolution source has some lag in reporting, this question will resolve 6 months after the closing date in situations where resolution is not straightforwardly assessed by the other resolution conditions.
|
2023-04-02T16:20:00Z
|
2023-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T16:26:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15630
|
Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?
|
[WWDC](https://developer.apple.com/wwdc23/) is Apple's annual conference to announce upcoming Apple products; the next WWDC is scheduled to be held on June 5-9 2023.
[Tom's Guide](https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-mixed-reality-headset-release-date-price-specs-and-leaks) has collected several rumors and reports that Apple plans to announce some kind of Augmented Reality device at WWDC 2023.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Apple announces a Mixed Reality Headset at WWDC in 2023, and **No** if there is no such announcement at WWDC.
For this question, an "announcement" is sufficient if the device has a name and is demonstrated to have the mixed reality capabilities below; a release date is not required.
To be a "mixed reality" headset, the device must have both (1) a virtual reality (VR) experience (comparable to the Meta Oculus line of devices) and (2) an augmented reality (AR) experience (comparable to the Microsoft Hololens line of devices).
In particular, for the (AR) part, the device must have a mode where it is see-through, i.e. the user sees the outside world with additional information layered on top. This could be done by literally making the display transparent in some modes, or by feeding live camera input into the visual display.
Fine Print: If Apple makes an official announcement of an MR headset prior 1 week prior to WWDC's official beginning, this question will resolve as **No**.
If WWDC is not held between April 1, 2023 to July 1, 2023, this question will be **Annulled**.
|
2023-04-17T15:00:00Z
|
2023-06-30T19:00:00Z
|
2023-06-05T18:24:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15629
|
Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?
|
[WWDC](https://developer.apple.com/wwdc23/) is Apple's annual conference to announce upcoming Apple products; the next WWDC is scheduled to be held on June 5-9 2023.
[Tom's Guide](https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-mixed-reality-headset-release-date-price-specs-and-leaks) has collected several rumors and reports that Apple plans to announce some kind of Augmented Reality device at WWDC 2023.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Apple announces a Virtual Reality Headset at WWDC in 2023, and **No** if there is no such announcement at WWDC.
For this question, an "announcement" is sufficient if the device has a name and is demonstrated to have the mixed reality capabilities below; a release date is not required.
A virtual reality headset is defined as a device that provides a full 3D, stereo, visual experience that tracks your head movements. Current VR devices include the Oculus Quest from Meta.
Note that such a device *need not* have any "mixed reality" or "augmented reality" capabilities.
Fine Print: If Apple makes an official announcement of a VR headset prior 1 week prior to WWDC's official beginning, this question will resolve as **No**.
If WWDC is not held between April 1, 2023 to July 1, 2023, this question will be **Annulled**.
|
2023-04-14T01:39:00Z
|
2023-06-30T19:00:00Z
|
2023-06-05T18:24:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15628
|
Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?
|
See a compilation of rumors, news, and patents on such a device in [Tom's Guide.](https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-glasses).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if a qualifying Apple device is announced before 2025.
For this question, "Apple Glasses" are defined as any pair of glasses that bring information from your phone to your face. From rumors, the eyewear "are expected to synchronize with a wearer’s iPhone to display things such as texts, emails, maps, and games over the user’s field of vision."
Such "Glasses" must look substantially like a standard pair of glasses. A VR headset, like Oculus, that is closer to ski goggles than glasses, would not qualify, even if such a device had some Augmented Reality / see-through capabilities. The glasses must provide the standard vision correction for common vision impairments that glasses normally provide.
It’s not sufficient to have glasses that have functionality like taking pictures, such as Snapchat Spectacles or Facebook Raybans, or that modify the visual field uniformly with filters. It must show new information comparable to the display on an Apple Watch.
Fine Print: The device need not be released, nor need a release date be given, an announcement is sufficient provided that it specifically unveils and names the device, and that the device can be seen on an Apple website.
|
2023-04-22T14:55:00Z
|
2024-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2025-01-17T17:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15627
|
Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?
|
In late March 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin has [announced plans](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65077687) to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. This would mark the first time Moscow would based nuclear arms outside Russia since the mid-1990s. Control of the arms will not be transferred to Minsk, and Putin compared the decision to the US stationing weapons in Europe. The construction of a storage facility for the weapons in Belarus is set to be completed by [July 1st](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/25/putin-says-will-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus).
The decision follows a [joint statement](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65077687) from Russia and China urging that “all nuclear powers must not deploy their nuclear weapons beyond their national territories, and they must withdraw all nuclear weapons deployed abroad.” The US Defense Department stated it does not believe Russia intends to use the weapons and has not adjusted its strategic nuclear posture in response.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if there are credible reports that Russia has at least one operational nuclear weapon (tactical or strategic) stationed in Belarus. This includes Russian warheads on Belarusian missiles or other relevant platforms.
If Belarus ceases to exist as an independent country, for example if Russia formally announces that it has annexed Belarus or similar outcomes, this question resolves ambiguously.
If there are no credible reports of this happening by 2024 and this question is resolved negatively in early 2024, but such reports surface at a later point in time, this question will not re-resolve.
Fine Print: Credible sources have to rely on official statements by a government (or a governmental agency), even if these announcement remain probabilistic like "have high confidence that. . ." a Russian nuclear weapon is in Belarus. A source citing unnamed sources does not qualify as a credible source for the purposes of this question.
|
2023-03-28T19:18:00Z
|
2023-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2023-06-14T08:28:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15625
|
Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?
|
In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/). As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that TikTok US will be (or has been) sold to a US company, foundation, or entity. The transaction need not be complete in 2023 but must at least be announced in 2023. For a transaction to count, more than 50% of TikTok US has to be sold.
If TikTok is not sold before 2024, or is banned within the US and remains banned for the entirety of 2023, this question will resolve as **No**.
If TikTok successfully conducts an initial public offering in 2023, this question resolves ambiguously
|
2023-03-29T18:11:00Z
|
2023-12-31T04:59:00Z
|
2023-12-31T16:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15622
|
Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?
|
In the wake of the [2023 banking turmoil](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/how-2023-banking-crisis-unfolded-2023-03-24/), triggerd by the collapse of [Silicon Valley Bank](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forrester/2023/03/24/the-silicon-valley-bank-crisis-highlights-the-importance-of-resilience-and-the-imperative-of-trust/?sh=626f335f54fa), strong central bank and government support has so far warded off a full-blown crisis, due to [strong responses by the Fed](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230319a.htm) and the Swiss central bank and government by facilitating the UBS takeover of [Credit Suisse](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-deal-halted-crisis-092818510.html).
However, on March 24, 2023, shares of [Deutsche Bank](https://www.ft.com/content/a730721b-afaf-4e81-b5aa-dcbbd98f3bd3) fell as much as 14%, closing the day down over 8%. This raised fears of a wider contagion and as such about the financial health of Deutsche Bank, the potential implications of its collapse for the German and wider EU banking sector, as well as the potential need for central bank/government support similar to Credit Suisse. [German chancellor Olaf Scholz](https://www.ft.com/content/963d8fde-1bd0-4285-98f4-715248119f2a) “has rejected comparisons between Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse”:
> “Deutsche Bank has fundamentally modernised and reorganised its business and is a very profitable bank,” Scholz said at a summit in Brussels after being asked if the lender was the new Credit Suisse. “There is no reason to be concerned about it.”
As some have pointed out, this Deutsche Bank scare has forced the German chancellor to borrow line from Silicon Valley Bank CEO: ‘[No cause for any kind of concern’](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-scare-forces-german-191822318.html). While there remains significant uncertainty about the size of the problem and the potential solutions, [some have worried](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/deutsche-banks-collapse-would-be-a-threat-to-the-whole-eurozone/) that:
> A Deutsche collapse could bring the euro down with it. Unless the government and the central bank can shore it up over the weekend, very soon the entire currency will be in deep trouble.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Deutsche Bank experiences any of the following scenarios based on reports by credible sources before June 1, 2023. For resolution of this question, official announcements of any of these scenarios suffice for positive resolution for as long as they are definite in their future implementation (for example, an announcement of a government bailout is sufficient for resolution, even if the actual bailout has not happened yet for as long as the announcement is clear that it has been agreed upon).
Scenarios:
1) Collapse: Bankruptcy, insolvency, or general cessation of operations.
2) Full Acquisition: Acquisition of at least 50% of the voting shares by another financial institution or governmental entities.
3) Partial Acquisition: Sale of one or more of its business units or divisions to other financial institutions or governmental entities.
4) Break-up: Split of Deutsche Bank into at least two separate entities.
5) Government Bailout: Government-backed provision of financial assistance.
6) Central Bank Support: Direct intervention from the European Central Bank.
7) International Support: Financial assistance from international institutions such as the IMF or central banks from other countries
|
2023-03-28T12:21:00Z
|
2023-05-31T11:00:00Z
|
2023-06-01T16:09:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15620
|
Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?
|
Copper is a vital element in the global shift towards clean energy sources, as it plays a significant role in the development and implementation of renewable energy technologies like wind and solar power. According to a [Copper Development Association (CDA)](https://www.copper.org/resources/market_data/infographics/copper-and-the-clean-energy-transition-brochure.pdf) ) summary, the use of copper in solar and wind energy generation is 4-6 times higher than in fossil fuel-based systems. This is because copper's excellent conductivity and durability make it ideal for efficiently distributing electricity over long distances from wind and solar farms to households and factories. Additionally, copper is a crucial component in electric vehicles (EVs), with battery electric vehicles containing approximately 183 lbs of copper (more than 4 times the amount needed for ICE cars). This metal is used in various parts of an EV, including the electric motor, battery, inverters, and wiring. Furthermore, the growing demand for charging infrastructure to support the increasing number of EVs on the road adds to the rising copper demand, as copper is extensively used in constructing charging stations.
As the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/c3da84fd-efe2-4487-accb-511a8104ee3e?shareType=nongift) reports, Trafigura forecasts a surge of copper prices in 2023 due to a rebound in Chinese demand as well as already low stockpiles.
> “I think it’s very likely in the next 12 months that we will see a new high,” Bintas said at the FT Commodity Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland.
> Goldman Sachs expects the world to run out of visible copper inventories by the third quarter of this year if demand in China continues to power ahead as strongly as it did in February.
This increase in global demand is facing [struggles to increase production in the near-term](https://www.ft.com/content/c3da84fd-efe2-4487-accb-511a8104ee3e?shareType=nongift):
> Mining executives say it is increasingly difficult to boost new supply of copper with declining grades. Mining billionaire Robert Friedland told the Financial Times it took him 28 years to develop the vast Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is ramping up to supply 650,000 tonnes by the end of next year.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on [HG:CMX historical data provided by the NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/hg:cmx).
This question will resolve as **Yes** if copper trades higher than $5.0395 at any day of 2023.
To resolve this question, the ‘Historical Data’ of the [resolution source](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/hg:cmx/historical) will be used. This data can be downloaded directly and be sorted by the ‘High’ of each day. If any day of 2023 has a ‘High’ of above 5.0395 (the previous ATH from 03/07/2022), this question resolves positively. If it does not, this question resolves negatively
|
2023-03-30T19:24:00Z
|
2023-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2023-12-30T04:59:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15619
|
Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?
|
The Internet Archive maintains a digital lending library that lends out [digital copies of books it has in its physical possession](https://archive.org/details/inlibrary), such that one physical copy corresponds to one digital copy for lending.
During the COVID-19 pandemic and the initial lockdowns in 2020, the Internet Archive expanded digital lending to allow an unlimited number of copies. This decision led to a [lawsuit filed by several publishers](https://www.eff.org/cases/hachette-v-internet-archive) against the Internet Archive, alleging copyright violation. In March 2023, a lower court [ruled against](https://file770.com/judge-decides-against-internet-archive/) the Internet Archive, although they plan to [continue fighting the case](http://blog.archive.org/2023/03/25/the-fight-continues/).
A judgment against the Internet Archive could be devastating, as it is a free website funded by donations and may lose a significant amount of money to the publishing houses seeking damages. Furthermore, publishers seem to oppose the [entire operation of the Internet Archive](https://www.techdirt.com/2022/10/24/as-big-book-publishers-look-to-kill-the-internet-archive-it-introduces-democracys-library/), from its public domain work to its Wayback Machine, which is the largest archive of the Internet in existence.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any of the following occurs:
1. Reputable news sources report that the Internet Archive has been shut down in its entirety.
2. The archive.org website is replaced with an official message by the Internet Archive stating that it is permanently and completely discontinued.
3. The archive.org website is replaced with an official message by law enforcement indicating that the domain has been seized.
4. The archive.org domain is inaccessible to all users for more than 72 consecutive hours.
This question will NOT resolve "yes" if only some functionality of the Internet Archive (e.g., digital lending) is removed, but other functions of the site (such as the public domain archive or the Wayback Machine) remain operational
|
2023-03-31T14:54:00Z
|
2024-12-31T17:00:00Z
|
2025-01-14T07:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30708
|
Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?
|
[Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):
> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing bill. In response, the left-wing opposition put forward a no-confidence motion
[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/):
> French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday [December 4] on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone's second-largest economy.
> Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that a new French Prime Minister has been appointed.
Fine Print: - A potential vote of no confidence on the new PM will not affect resolution.
- A caretaker PM will not resolve this question.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2024-12-13T05:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30690
|
Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?
|
Bushra Bibi is the wife of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Mr. Khan was ousted through a no-confidence vote in Parliament in April 2022 and sentenced to three years in a £190 million graft case. He was later found guilty of revealing official secrets and sentenced to a further 10 years in prison. In November 2024, Bushra Bibi led protests for the release of her husband. Bibi herself has been involved in the graft case and on November 22, a court issued a non-bailable warrant for her arrest as she failed to appear in eight court hearings. On November 23, the police attempted to arrest her, but they were unsuccessful as she was not present at her residence.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Bushra Bibi, the wife of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, is arrested before January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: In order to streamline this question's resolution, please note that an arrest anywhere in the world, for any reason, will resolve this question as Yes. For purposes of this question, we define "arrest" using the definition [posted at Nolo](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/justifies-arrest-probable-cause.html): "An arrest requires taking someone into custody, against that person's will, in order to prosecute or interrogate. It involves a physical application of force, or submission to an officer's show of force. In sum, the arrestee must not be free to leave. Whether the act by the police is termed an arrest under state law is not relevant. When deciding whether someone has been arrested, courts apply the 'reasonable man' standard. This means asking whether a reasonable person, in the shoes of the defendant, would have concluded that he or she was not free to leave."
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T22:18:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30681
|
Will Candy Meehan survive the recall vote in Norwood, Colorado, scheduled for December 10, 2024?
|
Ballotpedia: [Candy Meehan recall, Norwood, Colorado (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Candy_Meehan_recall,_Norwood,_Colorado_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Mayor Candy Meehan wins the recall vote scheduled for December 10, 2024, in Norwood CO.
Fine Print: The question resolves based on election results known before January 1, 2025. In the event of presumably rare edge cases such as the ballot being postponed or cancelled, the count taking too long to declare a winner, or the individual resigning before the vote takes place, this question wil be **annulled** if there is no answer before January 1, 2025.
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-13T13:33:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30680
|
Will the state of Delaware's Division of Corporations list OpenAI as an "Exempt" entity on December 31, 2024?
|
[Exclusive: OpenAI to remove non-profit control and give Sam Altman equity](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI is listed as "Exempt" by Delaware's Division of Corporations on December 31, 2024. To access the status page, go [here](https://icis.corp.delaware.gov/ecorp/entitysearch/NameSearch.aspx) and do a search for file number 5902936. If it shows "Entity Type: Exempt" then this question resolves as **Yes**.
Fine Print: The specific link to the website of the resolution source is provided for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that will be used for resolution. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled** if it still cannot be accessed.
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:52:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30679
|
Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥6 degrees F?
|
According to the [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/), "The temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at three times the global annual average, driving many of the changes underway in the Arctic. Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ecosystems and the global climate system. It contributes to rising sea levels, and is likely to provoke extreme temperature events beyond the Arctic. The effects of a shifting Arctic climate are felt across the high latitudes and beyond – with global environmental, economic, and social implications."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers National Weather Service weather station in Alaska exceeds the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥6 degrees Fahrenheit. Specifically, it will be the figure for December 2024 under "Average Daily Temperature (high+low)/2 [F]" listed at [this webpage](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=PABR&network=AK_ASOS) by Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
Fine Print: Please note that Iowa Environmental Mesonet is the only data provider that will be used for resolution. The specific link to the webpage within the resolution source's website is provided for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that page will be used for resolution.
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30678
|
Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥4 degrees F?
|
According to the [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/), "The temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at three times the global annual average, driving many of the changes underway in the Arctic. Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ecosystems and the global climate system. It contributes to rising sea levels, and is likely to provoke extreme temperature events beyond the Arctic. The effects of a shifting Arctic climate are felt across the high latitudes and beyond – with global environmental, economic, and social implications."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers National Weather Service weather station in Alaska exceeds the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥4 degrees Fahrenheit. Specifically, it will be the figure for December 2024 under "Average Daily Temperature (high+low)/2 [F]" listed at [this webpage](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=PABR&network=AK_ASOS) by Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
Fine Print: Please note that Iowa Environmental Mesonet is the only data provider that will be used for resolution. The specific link to the webpage within the resolution source's website is provided for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that page will be used for resolution.
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T20:14:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30677
|
Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December?
|
According to the [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/), "The temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at three times the global annual average, driving many of the changes underway in the Arctic. Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ecosystems and the global climate system. It contributes to rising sea levels, and is likely to provoke extreme temperature events beyond the Arctic. The effects of a shifting Arctic climate are felt across the high latitudes and beyond – with global environmental, economic, and social implications."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers National Weather Service weather station in Alaska exceeds the 1945-2023 average for December. Specifically, it will be the figure for December 2024 under "Average Daily Temperature (high+low)/2 [F]" listed at [this webpage](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=PABR&network=AK_ASOS) by Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
Fine Print: Please note that Iowa Environmental Mesonet is the only data provider that will be used for resolution. The specific link to the webpage within the resolution source's website is provided for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that page will be used for resolution.
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:38:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30676
|
Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be less than -6?
|
[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has increased from -8.6 on November 4, 2024 to -6 on November 21, the highest score of the previous 4 years.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the net favorability rating of Donald Trump for December 27, 2024, is less than -6, as reported by 538 after that date. The resolution will be based on the already-calculated net rating presented on 538. A higher percentage for "Unfavorable" will result in a negative resolution. A higher percentage for "Favorable" means that this question will resolve as >0.
Fine Print: If no value for December 27, 2024 has been published until January 7, 2025, the closest values will be used to resolve this question, provided that these are for any date after December 20, 2024 and before January 3, 2025.
In that case, the resolution will be calculated as follows: If there is one, unambiguous closest value (e.g., a value for December 26, 2024 is shown on the site but not one for December 28, 2024), the question will resolve as that. If there are two equidistant closest values, then the question will resolve as their average.
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-30T20:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30675
|
Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than or equal to -6 and less than or equal to -4?
|
[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has increased from -8.6 on November 4, 2024 to -6 on November 21, the highest score of the previous 4 years.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the net favorability rating of Donald Trump for December 27, 2024, is greater than or equal to -6 and less than or equal to -4, as reported by 538 after that date. The resolution will be based on the already-calculated net rating presented on 538. A higher percentage for "Unfavorable" will result in a negative resolution. A higher percentage for "Favorable" means that this question will resolve as >0.
Fine Print: If no value for December 27, 2024 has been published until January 7, 2025, the closest values will be used to resolve this question, provided that these are for any date after December 20, 2024 and before January 3, 2025.
In that case, the resolution will be calculated as follows: If there is one, unambiguous closest value (e.g., a value for December 26, 2024 is shown on the site but not one for December 28, 2024), the question will resolve as that. If there are two equidistant closest values, then the question will resolve as their average.
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-30T20:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30674
|
Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than -4?
|
[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has increased from -8.6 on November 4, 2024 to -6 on November 21, the highest score of the previous 4 years.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the net favorability rating of Donald Trump for December 27, 2024, is greater than -4, as reported by 538 after that date. The resolution will be based on the already-calculated net rating presented on 538. A higher percentage for "Unfavorable" will result in a negative resolution. A higher percentage for "Favorable" means that this question will resolve as >0.
Fine Print: If no value for December 27, 2024 has been published until January 7, 2025, the closest values will be used to resolve this question, provided that these are for any date after December 20, 2024 and before January 3, 2025.
In that case, the resolution will be calculated as follows: If there is one, unambiguous closest value (e.g., a value for December 26, 2024 is shown on the site but not one for December 28, 2024), the question will resolve as that. If there are two equidistant closest values, then the question will resolve as their average.
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-30T20:34:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30673
|
Will New Zealand report <275 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?
|
Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):
> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase "100-day cough". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.
On 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of cases reported by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research's Pertussis Dashboard for both weeks 51 and 52, when they are posted is under 275.
Fine Print: - Week 51 ends on December 20, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on December 25, 2024. Week 52 ends on December 27, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on January 1, 2025.
- This question will resolve on the first day after January 1, 2025 that data for both weeks are shown on the dashboard. Potential data revisions will not change the resolution. If the relevant numbers are not available on the dashboard before January 7, 2025, Admins may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), as long as their numbers are consistent with the dashboard's numbers.
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-08T10:22:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30672
|
Will New Zealand report greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?
|
Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):
> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase "100-day cough". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.
On 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of cases reported by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research's Pertussis Dashboard for both weeks 51 and 52, when they are posted is greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 .
Fine Print: - Week 51 ends on December 20, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on December 25, 2024. Week 52 ends on December 27, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on January 1, 2025.
- This question will resolve on the first day after January 1, 2025 that data for both weeks are shown on the dashboard. Potential data revisions will not change the resolution. If the relevant numbers are not available on the dashboard before January 7, 2025, Admins may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), as long as their numbers are consistent with the dashboard's numbers.
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-08T10:22:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30671
|
Will New Zealand report >375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?
|
Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):
> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase "100-day cough". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.
On 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of cases reported by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research's Pertussis Dashboard for both weeks 51 and 52, when they are posted exceeds 375.
Fine Print: - Week 51 ends on December 20, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on December 25, 2024. Week 52 ends on December 27, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on January 1, 2025.
- This question will resolve on the first day after January 1, 2025 that data for both weeks are shown on the dashboard. Potential data revisions will not change the resolution. If the relevant numbers are not available on the dashboard before January 7, 2025, Admins may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), as long as their numbers are consistent with the dashboard's numbers.
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-08T10:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30669
|
Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?
|
Following his recent electoral victory, President-elect Donald Trump has announced all 15 of the federal department heads and 5 more "Cabinet-level" officials. Matt Gaetz, who was initially nominated for Attorney General, [withdrew his nomination](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99r2m4y2zro) on November 21, 2024, amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Other nominees, such as [Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/25/nx-s1-5204486/president-elect-trump-reveals-more-people-he-wants-serving-in-his-cabinet) have also faced scrutiny due to various allegations.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if after November 27, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, any announced Cabinet member or Cabinet-level official withdraws as a nominee, or Donald Trump or his transition team retracts any nomination.
Fine Print: - The nomination need not have happened before this question opened. For example, a Cabinet nomination that is announced in December and withdrawn before 2025 would still resolve this question as **Yes**.
- For purposes of this question we are defining Cabinet and Cabinet-level as the following 26 positions, and any withdrawal of a nomination for any of the positions will resolve this question as **Yes**:
- Secretary of State
- Secretary of the Treasury
- Secretary of Defense
- Attorney General
- Secretary of the Interior
- Secretary of Agriculture
- Secretary of Commerce
- Secretary of Labor
- Secretary of Health and Human Services
- Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
- Secretary of Transportation
- Secretary of Energy
- Secretary of Education
- Secretary of Veterans Affairs
- Secretary of Homeland Security
- White House Chief of Staff
- Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency
- Director of the Office of Management and Budget
- Director of National Intelligence
- Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
- United States Trade Representative
- Ambassador to the United Nations
- Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers
- Administrator of the Small Business Administration
- Science Advisor to the President
- Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:25:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30625
|
Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have under $550 billion in reverse repurchase agreements at the end of December 2024?
|
TrendForce: [Fed’s Reverse Repo Shrinks Significantly: Is Market Liquidity at Risk ?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/11/news-feds-reverse-repo-shrinks-significantly-is-market-liquidity-at-risk/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the fourth weekly balance sheet of the Federal Reserve released for the month of December 2024, found at the Federal Reserve's [H.4.1 page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/), has reverse repurchase agreements of under 550,000 million dollars.
Fine Print: The specific link to the webpage within the resolution source's website is provided for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that will be used for resolution.
|
2024-12-02T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-28T16:22:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30624
|
Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have less than $6.8 trillion in assets at the end of December 2024?
|
Reuters: [Fed's Powell says balance sheet drawdown continues amid rate cuts](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-says-balance-sheet-drawdown-continues-amid-rate-cuts-2024-09-18/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the fourth weekly balance sheet of the Federal Reserve released for the month of December 2024, found at the Federal Reserve's [H.4.1 page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/), has total assets of under 6,800,000 millions of dollars.
Fine Print: The specific link to the webpage within the resolution source's website is provided for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that will be used for resolution.
|
2024-12-02T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-28T16:22:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30623
|
Will Bitcoin be worth at least 200,000 Dogecoin on December 30, 2024?
|
At the time of this question, Dogecoin had year-to-date returns of 375.27% and Bitcoin had ytd returns of 129.63%.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, after the close of trading on December 30, 2024, 1 Bitcoin is worth greater than or equal to 200,000 Dogecoin, as reported by Google Finance [here](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-DOGE?window=1M).
|
2024-12-02T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:55:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30622
|
Will the 2024 return of professional investor Howard Marks beat the return of any of the politicans tracked by Quiver Quantitative?
|
NPR: [Stock traders are trying to beat the market — by copying lawmakers](https://www.npr.org/2024/06/06/nx-s1-4974720/congress-stock-trades-profits)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if after the close of trading on the final trading day of December 2024, the 12-month total return of Howard Marks' portfolio as reported by Quiver Quantitative exceeds the 12-month return of any of these individuals: Nancy Pelosi, Josh Gottheimer, Donald Beyer, Dan Meuser, Tom Carper, Tina Smith, Shelley Moore Capito, or Sheldon Whitehouse. To access the returns, go to Quiver Strategies [here](https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/), making sure Strategies Shown is set to "All Strategies." For total return, click 12 Months. The resolution value will be the Total Return displayed for the 12-month period.
Fine Print: Please note that the Quiver number used for resolution is not the CAGR value, which is the compound annual growth rate since Quiver Quantitative's Backtest Start Date
|
2024-12-02T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T02:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30619
|
Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat the S&P 500 in 2024?
|
Motley Fool: [Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Nearly Tripled the S&P 500's Returns in 2023: Here Are the Stocks She's Been Buying](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/04/28/former-house-speaker-nancy-pelosi-nearly-tripled-t/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if after the close of trading on the final trading day of December 2024, the 12-month total return of Nancy Pelosi's portfolio as reported by Quiver Quantitative exceeds the 12-month return of the S&P 500 as reported by Yahoo Finance. To access Nancy Pelosi's return go to Quiver Strategies [here](https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/). For total return, click 12 Months. The resolution value will be the Total Return displayed for the 12-month period. To find out the return of the S&P 500, go to Yahoo Finance [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/). Divide the closing price of the S&P 500 on the final trading day of December by the "Adj Close" price shown for December 29, 2023, then subtract 1 and multiply by 100%..
Fine Print: Please note that the Quiver number used for resolution is not the CAGR value, which is the compound annual growth rate since Quiver Quantitative's Backtest Start Date
|
2024-12-02T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T02:04:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30618
|
Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat Berkshire Hathaway in 2024?
|
Benzinga: [Edward Snowden Contrasts Warren Buffett's Investment Skills with Nancy Pelosi, Dan Meuser: 'Fortunate to Be Represented by Extraordinary Talents](https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/03/38016319/edward-snowden-contrasts-warren-buffetts-investment-skills-with-nancy-pelosi-dan-meuser-fortunate-to)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if after the close of trading on the final trading day of December 2024, the 12-month total return of Nancy Pelosi's portfolio as reported by Quiver Quantitative exceeds the 12-month return of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s A shares as reported by Yahoo Finance. To access Nancy Pelosi's return go to Quiver Strategies [here](https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/). For total return, click 12 Months. The resolution value will be the Total Return displayed for the 12-month period. To find out the return of Berkshire Hathaway's A shares, go to Yahoo Finance [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BRK-A/history/). Divide the closing price of the stock on the final trading day of December by the "Adj Close" price shown for December 29, 2023, then subtract 1 and multiply by 100%.
Fine Print: Please note that the Quiver number used for resolution is not the CAGR value, which is the compound annual growth rate since Quiver Quantitative's Backtest Start Date
|
2024-12-02T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T02:04:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30617
|
Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥175,000 for November 2024?
|
TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors?
"The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports in its preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number for November 2024 a change in total nonfarm payroll employment that is an increase of greater than or equal to 175,000.
Fine Print: The BLS [expects](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) to release this number on December 6, 2024. Later revisions will not affect resolution.
|
2024-12-02T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-06T13:51:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30616
|
Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥75,000 for November 2024?
|
TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors?
"The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports in its preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number for November 2024 a change in total nonfarm payroll employment that is an increase of greater than or equal to 75,000.
Fine Print: The BLS [expects](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) to release this number on December 6, 2024. Later revisions will not affect resolution.
|
2024-12-02T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-06T13:51:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30615
|
Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers for November 2024?
|
TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors?
"The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports in its preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number for November 2024 a change in total nonfarm payroll employment that is greater than or equal to zero.
Fine Print: The BLS [expects](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) to release this number on December 6, 2024. Later revisions will not affect resolution.
|
2024-12-02T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-03T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-06T13:48:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30593
|
Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?
|
Lebanese politics works on a [confessional basis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taif_Agreement), where legislative seats and executive positions are allocated to various ethnoreligious groups. The Presidency is always held by a Maronite Christian; however, the country's volatile political and military landscape has often made the election less than smooth.
It took six months to elect a President in [2007-08](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Lebanese_presidential_election) and 2.5 years in [2014-16](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–2016_Lebanese_presidential_election). The six-year term of the President eventually elected in that process, Michel Aoun, ended in October 2022. Several attempts to elect a successor have failed to reach a quorum, as a majority of Lebanon's 128 MPs is required for election.
In the wake of the ceasefire between Israel and the militia/party Hezbollah, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has [called a new vote](https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1437340/berri-sets-jan-9-as-date-for-parliamentary-session-to-elect-president.html) for January 9, 2025. Will the country succeed in breaking the deadlock and electing a President?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the January 9, 2025 session of the Parliament of Lebanon elects a President, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: If the vote is not held before January 11, 2025, or if it fails to elect a President for any reason (e.g. lack of quorum), the question resolves as **No**. It is immaterial who the newly-elected President is or whether they maintain the norm of the President being a Maronite. Any proclamations of someone being President will not count unless they have won the vote of a majority of Members of Parliament.
|
2024-12-19T01:31:51Z
|
2024-12-31T03:00:00Z
|
2025-01-10T03:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30580
|
Will Tesla increase its quarterly vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024 on a year-over-year basis?
|
In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 484,507 vehicles delivered for the fourth quarter of 2024. If it reports deliveries of 484,507 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports deliveries two days after the quarter's end, which means the report is expected January 2, 2025. If Tesla does not report these numbers before January 16, 2025, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-11-29T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T23:25:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30579
|
Will US airline passenger volume for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA?
|
2023 was the [busiest travel year ever](https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/2023-numbers-more-flights-fewer-cancellations-more-consumer-protections), with very low cancellation rates, from a historical perspective.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if total passenger volume for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 to December 31, 2024 exceeds the 7-day period from December 25, 2023 to December 31, 2023. The resolution source is the TSA checkpoint travel numbers, which can be found at [this link](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes) for 2024. The archived 2023 TSA passenger volume numbers can be found [here](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes/2023).
The 7 days from December 25, 2023, through December 31, 2023, had total daily passenger numbers summing up to 17,307,363. Therefore, this question resolves as **Yes** if total passenger volume for the period of December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 exceeds 17,307,363 and resolves as **No** if it is less than or equal to 17,307,363.
Fine Print: The question will resolve as soon as the data is posted and accessed by Metaculus Admins. However, if there are delays then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-29T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T23:29:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30578
|
Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on December 20, 2024?
|
On Nomember 22, 2024, of the 10 individuals ranked 246-255 on Bloomberg's list, 6 were from the United States. On the entire list, 190 out of 500 indivduals were from the United States.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 250th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) is listed as being from the United States, when accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after December 20, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading). It resolves as **No** if the 250th-ranked person is from any other country.
Fine Print: For purposes of this question, the "median" from the question's title is defined as the 250th ranked person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, no matter how many are on the list.
If the list contains fewer than 250 people on the resolution date, this question will be resolved as the last person on the list. If it contains more than 500 people, the median will still be considered the 250th. If it contains 251-499 people, the median will still be considered the 250th ranked.
If Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-11-29T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-20T21:59:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30577
|
Will marijuana still be listed as a US Schedule I controlled substance on December 31, 2024?
|
According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/):
>On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) signed by Attorney General Merrick Garland in the Federal Register. This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if, on December 31, 2024, marijuana is listed as a schedule I drug in the US according to Wikipedia's list, which can be currently accessed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Schedule_I_controlled_substances_(U.S.)). If marijuana is not on the list, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome.
|
2024-11-29T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30576
|
Will SpaceX fail to make any new posts on its Updates page before January 1, 2025?
|
As of November 22, 2024, SpaceX's most recent post was timestamped September 10, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if no new posts appear at SpaceX's Updates page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.spacex.com/updates/), timestamped after the close of this question and before January 1, 2025. If there is such a post, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.
|
2024-11-29T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:21:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30575
|
Will the lowest temperature recorded in Anchorage, Alaska during the entire month of December 2024 be lower than the lowest temperature recorded in Chicago, IL for the month?
|
The last time this occured was in December 2017, when the lowest temperature recorded in the Chicago weather station during the month was -3 F, while the lowest recorded at the Anchorage weather station was 5 F. It almost occurred in December 2022, when Chicago recorded -9 F on December 23rd; however, Anchorage reached -12 on December 20th.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the lowest temperature at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport weather station, reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PANC&network=AK_ASOS) for the month of December 2024, is lower than the lowest temperature at the Chicago, IL Midway Airport weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MDW&network=IL_ASOS) for the month.
Fine Print: Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as "MM") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendars posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-29T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T20:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30544
|
Will the US Supreme Court's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 41.0% on December 30, 2024?
|
Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the approval rating of the US Supreme Court according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/supreme-court/) is greater than or equal to 41.0% on December 30, 2024. If it is less than that, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-28T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30543
|
Will the US Congress's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 22.0% on December 30, 2024?
|
Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the approval rating of the US Congress according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/congress/) is greater than or equal to 22.0% on December 30, 2024. If it is less than that, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-28T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30542
|
Will JD Vance's 538 favorability be greater than or equal to 39.0% on December 30, 2024?
|
Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if JD Vance's favorability rating according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/jd-vance/) is greater than or equal to 39.0% on December 30, 2024. If it is less than that, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-28T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30541
|
Will Kamala Harris's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024?
|
Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Kamala Harris's approval rating according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/) is greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024. If it is less than that, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-28T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T16:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30540
|
Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 38.5% on December 30, 2024?
|
According to 538, its approval tracker is "An updating calculation of the president's approval rating, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Joe Biden's approval rating according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) is greater than or equal to 38.5% on December 30, 2024. If it is less than that, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-28T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30538
|
Will the lowest temperature recorded in Anchorage, Alaska during the entire month of December 2024 be lower than the lowest temperature recorded in Chicago, IL for the month?
|
The last time this occured was in December 2017, when the lowest temperature recorded in the Chicago weather station during the month was -3 F, while the lowest recorded at the Anchorage weather station was 5 F. It almost occurred in December 2022, when Chicago recorded -9 F on December 23rd; however, Anchorage reached -12 on December 20th.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the lowest temperature at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport weather station, reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PANC&network=AK_ASOS) for the month of December 2024, exceeds the lowest temperature at the Chicago, IL Midway Airport weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MDW&network=IL_ASOS) for the month.
Fine Print: Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as "MM") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendars posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-28T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T20:21:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30537
|
Will the lowest temperature recorded in Miami, FL over the entire month of December 2024 never be lower than the highest temperature recorded in Anchorage Alaska for the month?
|
This has not occurred in the past 5 years, although it has come close, such as in 2020 when the lowest temperature recorded in Miami was 47 on December 26, 2020) and the highest temperature recorded in Anchorage was 45 on December 1, 2020.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the lowest temperature at the Miami International Airport weather station, reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MIA&network=FL_ASOS&year=2024&month=11) for the month of December 2024, exceeds the highest temperature at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PANC&network=AK_ASOS) for the month.
Fine Print: Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as "MM") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendars posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-28T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:17:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30517
|
Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?
|
According to [Airnow](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/):
>The U.S. Air Quality Index (AQI) is EPA's tool for communicating about outdoor air quality and health. The AQI includes six color-coded categories, each corresponding to a range of index values. The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.
>EPA establishes an AQI for five major air pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act. Each of these pollutants has a national air quality standard set by EPA to protect public health:
> - ground-level ozone
> - particle pollution (also known as particulate matter, including PM2.5 and PM10)
> - carbon monoxide
> - sulfur dioxide
> - nitrogen dioxide
On November 21, 2024, CNN [reported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/20/india/delhi-pollution-clinic-smog-climate-intl-hnk/index.html) that New Delhi had the most hazardous air for human health in the world, leading the Delhi Chief Minister to declare a "medical emergency" as authorities closed schools and urged people to stay home. On November 20, 2024 the reading for PM2.5, which has been linked to asthma, heart and lung disease, cancer, and cognitive impairment in children, was more than 77 times higher than safe levels set by the WHO.
At the time of this question, in 2024 year to date 6% of hours have had an AQI classified as Hazardous, 12% of hours have been Very Unhealthy, and 33% Unhealthy. To access the data for 2024 and previous years from 2015 through the present day, please go [here](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) and click on the Historical tab.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 1/3 of the hourly values reported by [AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) for the dates December 16, 2024 to December 29, 2024 inclusive are categorized as having a "Hazardous" air quality index (AQI). If less than 1/3 of the hourly values are categorized as "Hazardous" air quality, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: - The dates and times for this question will be the dates and times reported by AirNow. No adjustments based on timezones will be made.
- If AirNow data are not available before January 7, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.
- Data can be accessed under the "Historical" tab at the resolution source.
|
2024-12-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-25T12:00:00Z
|
2024-12-20T22:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30516
|
Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?
|
Following his recent electoral victory, President-elect Donald Trump has announced all 15 of the federal department heads and 5 more "Cabinet-level" officials. Matt Gaetz, who was initially nominated for Attorney General, [withdrew his nomination](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99r2m4y2zro) on November 21, 2024, amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Other nominees, such as [Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/25/nx-s1-5204486/president-elect-trump-reveals-more-people-he-wants-serving-in-his-cabinet) have also faced scrutiny due to various allegations.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if after November 27, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, any announced Cabinet member or Cabinet-level official withdraws as a nominee, or Donald Trump or his transition team retracts any nomination.
Fine Print: - The nomination need not have happened before this question opened. For example, a Cabinet nomination that is announced in December and withdrawn before 2025 would still resolve this question as **Yes**.
- For purposes of this question we are defining Cabinet and Cabinet-level as the following 26 positions, and any withdrawal of a nomination for any of the positions will resolve this question as **Yes**:
- Secretary of State
- Secretary of the Treasury
- Secretary of Defense
- Attorney General
- Secretary of the Interior
- Secretary of Agriculture
- Secretary of Commerce
- Secretary of Labor
- Secretary of Health and Human Services
- Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
- Secretary of Transportation
- Secretary of Energy
- Secretary of Education
- Secretary of Veterans Affairs
- Secretary of Homeland Security
- White House Chief of Staff
- Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency
- Director of the Office of Management and Budget
- Director of National Intelligence
- Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
- United States Trade Representative
- Ambassador to the United Nations
- Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers
- Administrator of the Small Business Administration
- Science Advisor to the President
- Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy
|
2024-11-30T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T12:39:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30500
|
Will the temperature in Denver, CO remain below 70 degrees F for the entire month of December 2024?
|
In December 2022, the highest High was 64 F and in December 2023 it was 71. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is below 70 degrees for the Denver International Airport weather station for every day of December 2024, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=DEN&network=CO_ASOS). If this does not occur, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as "MM") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:15:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30499
|
Will the temperature in Phoenix, AZ remain below 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?
|
In December 2022, the highest High was 74 F and in December 2023 it was 84. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is below 80 degrees for the Phoenix, AZ Sky Harbor Airport weather station for every day of December 2024, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PHX&network=AZ_ASOS). If this does not occur, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as "MM") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T21:48:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30498
|
Will the temperature in Chicago, IL remain below 60 degrees F for the entire month of December 2024?
|
In December 2022, the highest High was 57 F and in December 2023 it was 60. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is below 60 degrees for the Chicago, IL Midway Airport weather station for every day of December 2024, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MDW&network=IL_ASOS). If this does not occur, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as "MM") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:07:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30497
|
Will the temperature in Anchorage, Alaska ever go below 0 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?
|
In most years there are multiple days below 0 in Anchorage in December. However, in December 2019, there were not any. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the low temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever below 0 degrees for the Anchorage, Alaska weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PANC&network=AK_ASOS). If the low for any day has not been below that, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as "MM") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T20:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30496
|
Will the temperature in Jacksonville, FL ever exceed 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?
|
According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever above 80 degrees F for the Jacksonville Naval Air Station weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=NIP&network=FL_ASOS&year=2024&month=12). If this does not occur, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as "MM") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30495
|
Will the temperature in New York, NY ever go below 25 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?
|
In December 2022, this occurred, but in December 2023 it did not. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the low temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever below 25 degrees for the New York City weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=NYC&network=NY_ASOS&year=2024&month=12). If the low for any day has not been below that, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as "MM") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-22T15:35:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30494
|
Will the temperature in San Francisco, CA ever go below 40 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?
|
In December 2022 the lowest recorded temperature was 40 F, while in December 2023 it was 46.13. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the low temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever below 40 degrees for the downtown San Francisco weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=SFOC1&network=CA_DCP&year=2024&month=12). If the low for any day has not been below that, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as "MM") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.