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mani-aS7AQHVH2crFr2DUA66H
Will The Sunshine Protection Act, establishing permanent daylight saving time, pass the U.S. House by April 1, 2023?
The Sunshine Protection Act is a proposed United States federal law that would make U.S. daylight saving time permanent, meaning the time would no longer change twice a year. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunshine_Protection_Act https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/623 Close date updated to 2023-04-01 11:59 pm
2022-10-30T13:09:01
2023-04-01T14:59:00
2023-04-07T01:30:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ErPLu7QUQN5JbmBdfama
Will the Elfstedentocht take place in 2022-2023?
This question resolves to "YES" if the Elfstendetocht (the Dutch long-distance skating tour) is held at any time in winter/spring 2022-2023, i.e. before June 2023. The Elfstendentocht occurs only when the ice is declared to be suitable, and its exact date is determined by the ice conditions. The most recent Elfstendentocht was in 1997. The ice conditions were suitable in spring 2022 but due to covid restrictions no contest was held. This question only resolves to "YES" if the contest actually takes place.
2022-10-30T10:59:19
2023-05-27T02:46:39
2023-05-27T02:47:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4nWvvqp7D740JdLK3GyA
Chess: Will GM Hans Niemann Win His Lawsuit?
real money market: https://insightprediction.com/m/74967/chess-will-gm-hans-niemann-win-his-lawsuit Background: On October 20, 2022 GM Hans Niemann announced that he had filed a lawsuit with the United States District Court, specifically the Eastern District of Missouri: Eastern Division. In his lawsuit, Niemann names Magnus Carlsen, Play Magnus, chess.com, Daniel Rensch, and Hikaru Nakamura as defendants. Neimann alleged that the defendants spread false accusations against him regarding cheating and leveraged their positions to unfairly tarnish his reputation. Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Niemann v. Carlsen (E.D. Mo., 4:22-cv-01110) results in Hans Niemann being entitled to any damages from one or more of the named defendants, regardless of the amount awarded to him, by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. Damages must (at minimum) exceed the restitution of legal fees. This market can be immediately resolved once a verdict has been reached in Niemann v. Carlsen. If no damages have been awarded to Niemass as a result of Niemann v. Carlsen by December 31, 2023 then the market will resolve to "No". If the case is settled out of court or otherwise dissolved, then the market can also be immediately resolved to "No". Any appeal of the decision in Niemann v. Carlsen will have no bearing on the resolution of this market, and only the initial verdict by the court will be considered. The market will be resolved based on official reporting from the United States District Court or Eastern District of Missouri, or if necessary, a consensus of credible reporting. Lawsuit Excerpt: "Accordingly, Niemann asserts the following claims against Defendants: (1) slander; (2) libel; (3) unlawful group boycott under the Sherman Act, 15 U.S.C. § 1, et. seq.; (4) tortious interference with contract and business expectancies; and (5) civil conspiracy. Niemann seeks damages in an amount to be determined at trial, but no less than One Hundred Million Dollars ($100,000,000)."
2022-10-30T05:20:58
2023-06-27T13:56:53
2023-06-27T13:56:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TU76c0GdIshxm8AQQJoM
Will Character.ai allow NSFW content by the end of 2023?
Character.ai is a recently launched AI chatbot service that allows users to interact with an extremely large variety of high quality, user-generated AI personalities. See their help page and the community tab for more info. This market resolves "Yes" if the devs make an official announcement and implementation of allowing more NSFW content on the platform, even if it's paid-only (e.g. requiring a monthly subscription). Resolves "No" if the content policy remains largely unchanged by resolution time.
2022-10-30T05:01:28
2023-12-30T20:50:45
2023-12-30T20:50:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aD0RYL68wHs5wnaDNVAn
Will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by the end of 2023?
Assange is accused of conspiring to hack into US military databases to acquire sensitive secret information, which was then published by Wikileaks. He says the information exposed abuses by the US military and that the case against him is politically motivated. US prosecutors say the leaks put lives at risk. They requested Assange's extradition from the UK, where he is currently in prison. On June 17, 2022, the United Kingdom approved Julian Assange’s extradition to the United States to face charges, primarily under the nation’s Espionage Act, for releasing US government records that revealed the US military committed war crimes against civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq, including the killing of two Reuters journalists. If found guilty, Assange faces a jail term of up to 175 years. Extradition allows one country to ask another to hand over a suspect to face trial. Every time the US wants to put a suspect who is in the UK on trial, its prosecutors ask the British government. If the request has been made correctly, the home secretary sends it on to the courts, which issue a warrant for the suspect to be found and arrested. Once the individual has been detained, a judge examines the request. The judge must be satisfied that the individual is definitely the suspect the US seeks, and that the alleged crime is an offence that could lead to trial in the UK, had the incident happened on its territory. The judge must also consider whether the person has already been prosecuted for the crime, or whether the offence happened in a different country entirely. Under UK law, Parliament has banned extraditing anyone to face trial in a country that has the death penalty, unless the requesting nation has promised not to impose it. Any final decision on extradition to the US is made by the home secretary. The suspect can, however, appeal against extradition - a process that can last more than a year. The appeal could go all the way to the UK Supreme Court or European Court of Human Rights. The UK has previously blocked a number of extraditions to the US on human-rights grounds. Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-10-30T01:55:44
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T05:29:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NIQlBaP3fDuQ7VGjmidd
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2023? (tests included)
This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO. A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES. A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised A nuclear detonation is defined as an explosion where the majority of energy is from fission/fusion, as opposed to chemical or other explosives. I.e. a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion does not count. An attempted use of a nuclear weapon that does not detonate does not count. Related questions See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis. (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-49edd0c42325)(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-e717f6cb823f)
2022-10-29T07:43:58
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T00:11:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iew0lloCfGQai0JV34X5
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by the end of 2023?
This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 29, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO. A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES. A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion, that does not count. This is an extension of @jack's market of 2022 detonation: (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-d8af7cf07475)See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis. Oct 29, 6:17pm: Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by Dec 31, 2023? → Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by the end of 2023?
2022-10-29T04:37:22
2023-12-30T20:59:00
2024-01-01T04:51:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Qk4iuV7vzpI9U97Cl0H8
Will another (11th) child of Elon Musk be revealed by Dec 31, 2023?
Elon Musk is a (confirmed) father of 10 children with three different women. This market will resolve to YES, if by December 31, 2023, another child of Elon Musk is revealed to the public, whether by a new pregnancy, or by revealing an already-born human as his daughter/son.
2022-10-29T04:29:04
2023-09-11T05:51:22
2023-09-11T05:51:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-O0zJWj0vdR8uFrB63Ryj
Will Joe Biden be impeached twice in his first term?
This resolves yes if president Biden is impeached by the House of Representatives 2 or more times before the end of his first term. Resolves no if he has been impeached fewer than 2 times when his term ends, even if he is later impeached for something that occurred within the term (as happened with Trump) Similar market for being impeached a single time : (https://manifold.markets/embed/Predictor/will-joe-biden-get-impeached-in-his)I will not be betting in this market
2022-10-28T15:21:58
2025-01-20T08:59:00
2025-01-20T09:02:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gLgPgY0Ifzhwot7txWue
Will Trump tweet before a nuclear detonation occurs?
YES if Trump tweets NO if nuclear detonation N/A if neither
2022-10-28T12:29:30
2023-08-28T12:47:00
2023-08-28T12:47:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WPYO6EvMLjX10YIJMScJ
Will Google Chrome support third-party cookies by default on January 1, 2025?
This market will resolve to "yes" if a fresh install of the current supported version of Google Chrome for Microsoft Windows has third-party cookies enabled by default.
2022-10-28T12:27:05
2025-01-01T23:59:00
2025-01-02T06:20:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-LwMdlAfVeI7kxNNYxiQU
At the end of 2023 will Twitter be profitable?
This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk. At the end of 2023 if Twitter is profitable this market resolves YES. https://www.statista.com/statistics/299119/twitter-net-income-quarterly/ Post of related markets: https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of
2022-10-28T06:41:19
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T16:34:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ECwJcgZPTvPhOvPSZlag
Will Twitter's Daily Active Users growth rate be higher in 2023 than 2022?
Resolves YES if Twitter's monetizable Daily Active Users (mDAU) grows at a higher percentage rate in 2023 than in 2022. Otherwise NO. More formally: if (DAU at end of 2023 / DAU at end of 2022) > (DAU at end of 2022 / DAU at end of 2021). In the event that Twitter stops reporting mDAU but does report some sufficiently similar metric, such as DAU, will resolve based on that if it still preserves the overall spirit of the question, which is measuring the growth rate of active users. If this is not possible, resolves N/A. See https://www.statista.com/statistics/970920/monetizable-daily-active-twitter-users-worldwide/ for past data. Comparing growth from Q4 of one year to the next, mDAU grew at 13% in 2021 and 26% in 2020. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/will-twitter-have-more-daily-active) Post of related markets: https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of
2022-10-28T06:29:02
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-07T12:48:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SttdxBP4Edxqzq0ScDCH
Will Twitter still be privately owned by Elon Musk at the end of 2023?
This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk. At the end of 2023 if Twitter is still privately owned by Elon Musk this market resolves YES. Post of related markets: https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of
2022-10-28T05:50:35
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T16:32:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8GvJLWcJOdiue3XR6En2
Will Twitter have more annual revenue at the end of 2023?
This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk. At the end of 2023 if Twitter has more annual revenue than it did in 2022 this market will resolve YES. Google suggests $5 billion annual revenue in 2021. Post of related markets: https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of
2022-10-28T05:44:27
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T16:37:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zk1sRPlX4cocvPUHwHno
Will Twitter have more Daily Active Users at the end of 2023?
This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk. At the end of 2023 if Twitter has more daily active users than it did in 2022 this market will resolve YES. Google suggests about 237.8 million daily active users. Post of related markets: https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of
2022-10-28T05:42:28
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-03T14:45:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9JhMcnWHIgBpgEtmvWaA
Will Bolsonaro be imprisoned before the end of 2023?
Related markets: [markets]
2022-10-27T19:01:31
2023-12-31T19:59:00
2023-12-31T21:31:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8o5e06tzmpKoBfFa4Np1
Will Twitter accept Dogecoin (DOGE) as a method of payment before the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-27T18:59:39
2023-12-31T20:25:45
2023-12-31T20:25:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IS1QNkKEYixJy6vwn854
Will the price of Dogecoin (DOGE) top $0.682 anytime before the end of 2023?
From now until the end of 2023, will the price of DOGE ever beat it's record high of $0.682?
2022-10-27T18:55:51
2023-12-31T20:36:50
2023-12-31T20:36:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-21KeLkxOSdDYRXB3E1OL
Will Google develop a cryptocurrency by the end of 2023?
If Google develops and announces the launch of a cryptoasset / cryptocurrency by December 31, 2023, this market will be resolved as “Yes”.
2022-10-27T13:55:48
2023-12-31T20:36:14
2023-12-31T20:36:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EumqI7bNA9sdmSsTe3lX
Will anyone who cut ties with Kanye West work with him again by 2024?
Will anyone (person, business, agency, entity) who cut ties with Kanye West (Ye) recently as a result of his comments / behavior be back to working with him again by 2024? In the event he apologizes / takes corrective actions to resolve his issues and they allow him to redeem himself or something along those lines.
2022-10-27T12:09:32
2023-12-31T20:38:21
2023-12-31T20:38:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2
Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?
Twitter permanently banned former president of the USA, Donald Trump, from the platform in January 2021 during the final days of his term. His handle @realDonaldTrump had over 88.9 million followers. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once in 2023 (ET timezone). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump. Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market. //note: If any 2023 tweets appear on @realdonaldtrump timeline, it resolves yes. This includes retweets, images, 'long tweets' ,Twitter Spaces announced, and other quasitweets published on the profile. That was the market for 2022: (https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2022)
2022-10-27T06:51:00
2023-08-25T09:19:15
2023-08-25T09:19:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bAX25hHJSCzjPgzXnI12
Will Meta's VR gamble be seen as a good decision at the end of 2023?
Meta is all in on VR and the stock price is taking a big hit. Some claim Zuckerberg is a genius who has it all figured out, some say he is just pissing money away. At the end of 2023 will the gamble be viewed as a good decision? I will resolve based on a combination of factors including but not limited to how many users the VR platform has, Meta's market cap vs. ATH and SP500, general sentiment, and possibly some polls here or from my twitter account.
2022-10-26T23:36:14
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-02T23:27:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YiRi4wvm8lAYKb5keV7p
Will Destiny launch a news site in 2023?
Resolves YES if a news website managed by Destiny The Streamer exists, and has at least 5 articles primarily written by contributors other than himself.
2022-10-26T18:30:23
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T15:21:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rdUdikwUggc2HYZNOI7q
Will Destiny Drop Composition Challenge 11 By July 1, 2023?
In order for the "YES" to win, Destiny has to officially release the piece and start accepting submissions.
2022-10-25T17:21:22
2023-06-30T21:00:00
2023-06-30T21:15:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JLcbTPgVSMLVnTwLJKHq
Will there be a deadly military conflict between North Korean and US forces by February 2023?
Resolves YES if by the end of February 2023, kinetic military action takes place between North Korean and US armed forces, causing at least 1 fatality. Resolves NO otherwise. Background US and South Korean intelligence expect North Korea could conduct its 7th nuclear test at any time - see https://manifold.markets/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-422f66ae0107. US and South Korean forces are currently conducting military exercises, and North and South Korea have exchanged warning shots - https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/23/korea-warning-shots-sea-border-00063072. Resolution details Kinetic military action is defined as one involving gunfire or explosives - which does include strikes by drones, aircraft, missiles, artillery, etc. Cyberattacks would not count towards question resolution. I will use resolution criteria of similar Metaculus questions such as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/russia-and-non-us-nato-clash-by-2024/. Determination of which armed forces were combatants and whether it caused at least one fatality will be based on reliable media reporting. If the identity of the combatants is not known with certainty, it counts if my reading of the consensus reporting indicates at least 90% credence that it was. Related See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis. [markets]
2022-10-25T08:00:46
2023-03-01T06:47:52
2023-03-01T06:47:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ON3sdiFT3wWTm74r6i6P
Will another Breaking Bad/Better Call Saul Spin Off be announced before 2025?
If there is an announcement i deem offial enough before 2025 I will resolve Yes.
2022-10-25T06:57:35
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-02-24T10:46:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qazzEZAwqzBMa8PypNT5
Will the first Episode of season 2 of House of the Dragon air before March 2024?
Office air date, no leaks.
2022-10-25T06:47:29
2024-02-29T14:59:00
2024-03-04T19:49:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ijfZo0QKxBE6kMATdo9U
Will Kanye West have a “redemption arc”?
Resolves YES with the standard "atonement"/reconciliation/walk-back of comments, Resolves NO if has not occurred within two years. @jack and others may weigh in--but these tend to be quite obvious and widely covered in the media
2022-10-24T22:11:06
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-02-07T12:11:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-X7G5OFhF3Y0usplxLamh
Will there be a parliamentary election in the UK before 2024?
This question resolves to YES if the British people vote for all members of parliament before January 1, 2024 (i.e. special elections/by-elections don't count). Otherwise, it resolves NO.
2022-10-24T22:02:06
2023-12-31T12:00:00
2023-12-31T21:12:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5mytd0DgdOkTom8cI4aF
Will TikTok be available on US App Store on June 1, 2023?
Multiple governmental agencies and private business have imposed or attempted impose bans on the social media service TikTok. Countries like India and the United States have expressed concerns about the app's ownership by the Chinese company, ByteDance, attempting to ban it from app stores. Throughout Donald Trump’s presidency, there were numerous attempts to ban the website in the United States, which in turn led to a lawsuit against the US government. A recent series of social media posts claimed that the website would be closing its virtual doors in 2022 or would be banned by US state. Close date updated to 2022-10-24 8:51 pm Close date updated to 2023-06-01 11:59 pm
2022-10-24T11:50:58
2023-06-01T14:59:00
2023-06-08T08:23:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-KqqpgA5On6hUSE5jVpvD
Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister at the time of the next UK general election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-24T07:24:43
2024-07-04T12:18:46
2024-07-04T12:18:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-U9uGguDuY3qFvoYJOxLb
Will GBP/USD exchange rate fall below 1.00 by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-24T04:52:39
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T11:09:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vOLCHCm4D8BIqE3ZgZSJ
Will Mark Zuckerberg still be Meta's CEO on December 31, 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-24T04:41:32
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-02T06:44:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-LNSkREthulmLTMA6HNSI
Will Rishi Sunak hold the UK Prime Minister's office for at least one full year?
This market will resolve to "YES" if Rishi Sunak is the UK Prime Minister for at least 365 full days, counting from the time of pleading an oath of allegiance. This market will resolve to "NO" if Rishi Sunak does not plead an oath by December 31 2022, or if for any reason he stops being the UK Prime Minister after spending less than 365 in this office.
2022-10-24T04:38:02
2023-11-09T09:14:28
2023-11-09T09:14:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EiNQCYVSGtl1oetdqkf9
Will Xi Jinping continue his reign at the 2023 chairman election of China?
Will Xi Jinping continue another term as the chairman of China at the 14th National People's Congress in March 2023?
2022-10-24T02:10:55
2023-03-11T20:43:59
2023-03-11T20:43:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-pQhaz6qLfQ4c1SXXmlc2
Will Boris Johnson lose his parliamentary seat before the end of 2023?
Boris Johnson is in the running for Conservative leader again. But there is an ongoing Privileges Committee investigation into claims he misled parliament over lockdown parties in Downing Street. Should they find against him, possible sanctions include suspension from parliament, and even expulsion, triggering a by-election. This markets resolves YES, if Boris Johnson LOSES such a by-election, or otherewise permanently resigns his seat in the House of Commons. If he is expelled from parliament, but wins the subsequent by-election, it resolves NO.
2022-10-22T12:56:34
2023-06-09T14:53:57
2023-06-09T14:53:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JsAtnPx8j7A0GzFYgFel
Will Biden be impeached in 2024?
Close date updated to 2024-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-10-22T12:47:22
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-01-01T01:51:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xa1I62Ax33De66nvEUx5
Will Biden be impeached in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}, {'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-22T12:46:54
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2023-12-31T22:06:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-L7hz7GF1uSN9eakAAqvk
Will the National Party form a government following the next New Zealand general election?
Close date updated to 2023-10-14 7:00 pm
2022-10-22T04:16:06
2023-11-02T23:00:00
2023-11-25T14:40:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vhQdnmBjCFD1lUIyAcla
Will Marijuana be removed from Schedule I of the US Controlled Substance Act by the end of Biden's current term?
This question resolves "Yes" if Marijuana is legalized or rescheduled by executive, judicial or legislative action by the end of the current presidential term. Also reolves yes if Biden does not complete the term but Marijuana is legalized under Kamala Harris.
2022-10-21T09:00:39
2025-01-20T18:39:51
2025-01-20T18:39:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-55BBrm0TPkZG8tcY6Xdo
Will Bitcoin’s price reach all-time high by the end of 2024?
After reaching the unit price of 67,617 USD on November 8th, 2021, Bitcoin has consistently lost value to the point of being trade for less than 20,000 USD in the following months. If Bitcoin's price reaches a new all-time high value of at least 67,617 USD by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The reference to resolve this market will be CoinGecko’s price monitor for Bitcoin. If the currency surpasses the mentioned level and the referred source is not available at the time, I reserve the right to check another credible source as an alternative. Close date updated to 2024-12-31 5:59 am
2022-10-21T08:43:40
2024-03-07T03:49:26
2024-03-07T03:52:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-pY1Ina0PnaIAqTG11brU
Will the 2024 presidential race be Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': []}
2022-10-20T22:21:36
2024-08-06T01:47:48
2024-08-06T01:47:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SrQO9pHFeJIPLrJWhlgD
Will the 2024 presidential race be Gavin Newsom vs Nikki Haley?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': []}
2022-10-20T22:21:33
2024-08-06T01:44:23
2024-08-06T01:44:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TVF59O26zXF5MmuldbrQ
Will the 2024 presidential race be Joe Biden vs Ron Desantis?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': []}
2022-10-20T22:21:07
2024-08-06T01:43:16
2024-08-06T01:43:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-M4D6TUT8w9DohRsNWXXd
Will the 2024 presidential race be Joe Biden vs Donald Trump?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': []}
2022-10-20T22:21:03
2024-07-21T14:46:33
2024-07-21T14:46:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': []}
2022-10-20T22:03:56
2024-08-05T08:59:00
2024-08-05T21:21:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-hiUQ4DYdWAo7R2u8PxdA
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': []}
2022-10-20T22:03:53
2024-08-05T21:16:08
2024-08-05T21:16:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1Fo4sqdjs8B97hVKDNvo
Will Nikki Haley be the Republican Nominee for President in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': []}
2022-10-20T22:03:45
2024-07-22T12:29:19
2024-07-22T12:29:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yCCpy2uFOd5LhEFYa4HR
Will Hans Niemann receive a judgment or settlement of at least $1M USD from any combination of the defendants in his lawsuit?
This question resolves to "Yes" if Hans receives a judgment or settlement of $1M or greater. This includes if the venue changes and the suit is refiled in a different jurisdiction. If the settlement is not public, it will be unresolved. Any other alternative will be resolved as a "No." Oct 21, 12:47pm: Will Hans Niemann receive a judgment or settlement of greater than $1M USD from any combination of the defendants in his lawsuit? → Will Hans Niemann receive a judgment or settlement of at least $1M USD from any combination of the defendants in his lawsuit?
2022-10-20T12:29:57
2023-07-09T23:16:03
2023-07-09T23:16:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-r3zEZVQvdakBpEDmtk8W
Will the USA housing market crash before 2024?
Resolves based on the CSUSHPINSA (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa). Will it decline at least 15% from its peak of 308.47 at any time before the end of 2023? Resolves YES as soon as the index is below 262.20 for any month in 2022 or 2023. NO if December 2023 is released and this condition has not been met. Based on a prediction from https://www.themotte.org/post/133/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/20455?context=8#context
2022-10-20T11:39:22
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-05-27T19:35:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iXjmJAKPFrC7xhkp5dXg
Arctic sea ice extent will reach a new record low in 2023
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ Artic sea lows are usually in september. Will resolve yes if new record reached. 2012 record
2022-10-20T09:10:29
2023-10-30T20:59:00
2023-10-31T03:58:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YdF6u6ZoXBW2LNRQbhrf
Will the Tories win the next general election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-20T06:21:18
2024-07-05T02:48:26
2024-07-05T02:48:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GU8UcRSh1tJWmGsDPwAe
Will the Supreme Court overturn California's pig cage ban in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross?
See this Vox article for a good primer on why this case is important: National Pork Producers Council v. Ross — hinges on a simple question: Can California set its own standards for how pigs are treated on farms, even when they’re raised in other states? The case centers, quite literally, on how sausage gets made in the US. Each year, over 6 million female breeding pigs, or sows, are raised in “gestation crates” — narrow metal crates that confine the pigs so tightly they’re unable to turn around for the duration of their four-month pregnancies (and they have about four pregnancies in their three- to four-year lifetimes). As the pioneering animal welfare scientist Temple Grandin once put it, the crates are akin to forcing a human to live much of their life in an airline seat. The American Public Health Association says confining pigs so intensively also increases their stress levels and weakens their immune systems, which makes them more susceptible to infectious disease. (And given the ease with which some zoonotic viruses can pass from swine to humans, that threatens us as well.) In 2018, over 62 percent of California voters supported a state ballot measure called Proposition 12 that would ban the crates and require sows be raised with at least 24 square feet of space. Importantly, the measure applied whether or not the pigs had been raised in California, so all whole, uncooked pork sold in the state would be required to be produced according to California’s standard. Given the vast size of the state’s market, it’s having a transformative effect for pigs across the country — just as California’s stricter emissions standards for automobiles have changed the way cars are made nationwide. The law has similar provisions for cage-free eggs and crate-free veal, which have already gone into effect — the challenge in the Supreme Court only covers pork, which will go into effect in five months. See also this question on Metaculus: (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/11624/)I will likely resolve according to however Metaculus decides this question, unless anyone presents a better-specified resolution criteria. Close date updated to 2023-12-26 11:59 pm
2022-10-19T19:41:18
2023-05-11T16:10:13
2023-05-11T16:10:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-E3Iy0nWYLRZrbjyW6qUp
Will Amber Heard be removed from Aquaman 2?
With the unfolding of Johhny Depp vs Amber Heard's trial in the courtroom, the actress lost screen time in the movie Aquaman 2, allegedly having her participation reduced to less than 10 minutes. Nonetheless, there are still initiatives attempting to have her entirely removed from the movie, including an online petition with over 3 million signatures. The movie's premiere is set for December 25, 2023. If Amber Heard is completely cut from "Aquaman 2", in such a way that her face is not seen in any of the movie's scenes, this market will resolve to "Yes". Edit: Release date has been pushed back, will resolve on release date.
2022-10-19T18:17:44
2023-12-21T09:58:34
2023-12-21T09:58:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-55umkDH3YW3lL0DIq8Kg
Will Bitcoin’s price reach another all-time high by the end of 2023?
After reaching the unit price of 67,617 USD on November 8th, 2021, Bitcoin has consistently lost value to the point of being trade for less than 20,000 USD in the following months. If Bitcoin's price reaches a new all-time high value of at least 67,617 USD by December 31, 2023, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The reference to resolve this market will be CoinGecko’s price monitor for Bitcoin. If the currency surpasses the mentioned level and the referred source is not available at the time, I reserve the right to check another credible source as an alternative. Oct 21, 11:46am: Will Bitcoin’s price reach another all-time high by the end of 2023? → Will Bitcoin’s price reach another all-time high by the end of 2023?
2022-10-19T18:16:01
2023-12-31T20:32:34
2023-12-31T20:32:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-H2ErC4AbupNA0KUHaYX4
Will Bitcoin mining be regulated in the US by the end of 2024?
Following the Chinese prohibition of Bitcoin mining in September 2021, the United States became the country concentrating most of this type of activity in the world. If by December 31st, 2024, Bitcoin mining goes through federal regulatory restrictions in the United States of America, imposed through acts of the Executive or Legislative branch, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
2022-10-19T18:02:40
2024-12-30T09:52:05
2024-12-30T09:52:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-f4jgUMbfwwVUeMICyxTQ
Will the Irish Reunification of 2024 happen?
TNG Called it. UK is weak! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland (https://www.youtube.com/embed/IbSGp4WIBsQ)
2022-10-19T10:20:34
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-31T23:38:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cxdi2amEVJeMkIC8PxWB
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms?
Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Gigacasting/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-732b02483e1c)
2022-10-19T08:23:56
2023-03-01T22:10:24
2023-03-01T22:10:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hpWLpiMpABaQtzKpJ4wL
The war in Ukraine is still "hot" at the end of August 2023
Made for a challenge bet that might get someone on the site Oct 19, 5:26am: The war in Ukraine still be "hot" at the end of August 2023 → The war in Ukraine is still "hot" at the end of August 2023 Close date updated to 2023-08-18 3:08 am
2022-10-19T00:08:56
2023-08-31T20:59:00
2023-09-01T00:07:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-nibpOy8r48jyDcGStwlm
Will Avraham Eisenberg successfully conduct "a profitable trade" against Aave?
Will Avi successfully pull off an Aave 'exploit'? (Will he end net positive in the immediate aftermath (ie. not counting court battles years down the line) ) Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/GeorgeVii/will-avraham-eisenburg-attempt-to-c)Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-10-18T17:36:20
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T21:56:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rlNrrJC4cNvwGNrAyLoQ
Will Kanye West buy Parler by June 2023?
Resolves YES if an offer to buy Parler led by Kanye West (a.k.a. "Ye") succeeds by June 2023. (It is not necessary that Kanye West provide a majority of the capital.) This is a parallel market to an existing one asking whether the transaction will be consummated by year-end. I'm curious to what extent the probability is driven down by the possibility of a slight transaction delay pushing past year-end.
2022-10-17T21:12:45
2023-07-01T00:59:00
2023-07-01T02:55:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-46U81GEOye6VhYHduDOY
Will Joe Biden put pronouns in the bio of his personal Twitter account before the end of his current term?
This question shall resolve YES if Joe Biden puts pronouns in the bio of his personal @JoeBiden at some point in his current term as President. It shall resolve NO of this never occurs. Oct 17, 7:55pm: Will Joe Biden out pronouns in the bio of his personal Twitter account before the end of his current term? → Will Joe Biden put pronouns in the bio of his personal Twitter account before the end of his current term?
2022-10-17T17:55:02
2025-01-20T21:59:00
2025-01-21T05:26:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3UwZhAbgxDTlqRPiNPrg
After april, will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2023?
Resolves yes if there is a plant delivering electricity at any point, after april, during that year.
2022-10-17T14:30:09
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-05T06:04:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1ZTwVGJeFTOu5jlN40ac
Will Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom be released in May 2023?
Nintendo announced the official release date for May 12, 2023, but the release has previously been delayed. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.polygon.com/platform/amp/22690064/zela-botw-2-tears-of-the-kingdom-title-release-date-nintendo-switch
2022-10-17T13:34:11
2023-05-11T17:10:41
2023-05-11T17:10:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PVOtGGMnfzQDNZq3ezug
Will Kanye release a #1 or $5m+ album by 2025?
Peak US chart position or reported revenue
2022-10-17T09:59:57
2024-02-13T19:46:34
2024-02-13T19:46:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jRR1686JZr2gerY5rhwi
Will more than 20 organizations publicly train large language models by 2024?
For this market a large language model is a language model trained using an amount of compute that is within an order of magnitude of the compute used to train the largest language model It is not just based on parameter count. I'll accept starting with an pretrained model and then doing additional training/finetuning as long as the amount of compute for the latter component is large enough. By publically I just mean that it's well known that they trained the model. If, say, the Chinese government almost certainly has one but it's not definitely confirmed then that doesn't count.
2022-10-16T20:35:57
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-09T08:33:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SvIbbIGnpOsqjjXMHdaU
Will there be a new nuclear reactor operating in Germany, in 2023?
Resolves yes if there is a reactor, that didn't deliver electricity in 2022, delivering electricity at any point during that year. #politics #world #technology #energy
2022-10-16T17:00:34
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-12T13:23:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-n2pjMMF0CRNt9EdBmZuI
Will Donald J. Trump ever be elected President? (again)
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}, {'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-16T13:18:29
2024-11-06T15:37:16
2024-11-06T15:37:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ff9bQeKYeELvN0xgVeiv
Will Trump’s running mate be female?
As Republican nominee or otherwise
2022-10-16T11:05:40
2024-07-15T12:37:06
2024-07-15T12:37:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RQRoeChXrJY6yfOgyaLQ
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated while Biden is President?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-16T08:14:36
2025-02-13T14:30:00
2025-02-13T14:30:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eE1NIuaN1fixmAP1m2WZ
Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person at the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-15T17:11:24
2023-12-31T04:59:00
2024-01-01T01:03:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lC7e9jE44QA0OoxqNON1
Will Germany legalize Cannabis before 2024?
The market will resolve Yes if the law legalizing Cannabis in Germany comes into effect in 2023. In Geemany, Laws come into effect either on the date stated in the law itself or if not stated explicitly 14 days after the law was announced in the Bundesanzeiger. Thank you for the discussion that helped me clarify the criteria.
2022-10-15T13:51:31
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T13:44:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IC4g25xhx3xlQBhakafX
"The Purge": Will Ethereum change SELFDESTRUCT by 2024-01-01?
Vitalik Buterin has proposed Ethereum protocol upgrades that ban or neuter the SELFDESTRUCT EVM opcode. This resolves YES if the functionality of SELFDESTRUCT has changed in any way by the close date. Apr 23, 7:23pm: "The Purge": Will Ethereum change SELFDESTRUCT by 2024? → "The Purge": Will Ethereum change SELFDESTRUCT by 2024-01-01?
2022-10-15T12:22:10
2024-01-01T21:59:00
2024-01-02T00:42:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zCYoUTxxIV0sSP2KGTk5
Will the 80k podcast slow down Rob's speech to match his guest so that you can speed up both of their speech together?
Can be an alternative version of the podcast. Market resolves end of 2023 or if a non-parody episode is produced in this form. If guests are sped up to match rob, this market resolves positively. If it hasn't happened by market close, market resolves no. [image]
2022-10-15T07:39:17
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T22:05:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uRtYjlIDBSFk6Trst8Yl
"The Scourge": Will Ethereum have Proposer-Builder Separation by end of 2023?
This resolves YES if the Ethereum L1 protocol uses some kind of proposer-builder separation by the resolution date. You can read about PBS here. I'll use my best judgement about what kinds of upgrades count as PBS, but a major criterion I will use is whether the Ethereum Foundation describes the upgrade as PBS. Nov 6, 12:46pm: "The Splurge": Will Ethereum have Proposer-Builder Separation by end of 2023? → "The Scourge": Will Ethereum have Proposer-Builder Separation by end of 2023? Note: This market is trying to ask about whether PBS will be enshrined in the core L1 protocol itself. So mev-boost does not count but an enshrined PBS as described here would count.
2022-10-15T06:27:34
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T08:24:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-07hha4bB35ICm8oSB4N8
"The Surge": Will target gas per Ethereum block double by end of 2023?
Since the London upgrade, the Ethereum network has used the EIP-1559 mechanism to target a certain amount of gas use in each block, currently 15 Million gas. I will normalize to the gas cost of a Uniswap v2 transaction, as reported by Etherscan's Gas Tracker, which currently lists a gas limit of 152809 for this transaction. Under this limit, 98.16 swaps would fit in an average block, so this number will have to go up to above 196.32 for this to resolve YES. Oct 15, 9:09am: "The Surge": Will target gas per block double by end of 2023? → "The Surge": Will target gas per Ethereum block double by end of 2023?
2022-10-15T06:20:31
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T08:24:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aPaYMgqaW3LxZMZOV2LM
Will Avraham Eisenberg spend at least 6 months in jail before the end of 2030?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-13T09:53:51
2023-07-06T05:36:30
2023-07-06T05:36:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QFGMu7yJVvUwiVGXmTUZ
Will PredictIt's lawsuit against the CFTC be successful? (2023)
Background: Unpredictable Future of Political Prediction Markets / Why I'm Suing the Federal Government over PredictIt Resolves YES if the PredictIt's suit is resolved before the end of 2023 and "allow[s] all existing markets to resolve in an orderly manner past February 2023"
2022-10-12T12:10:25
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T13:05:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6lAWwHyowFrNJYejexfE
Will Bitcoin (BTC) price dip to $15,000 before reaching $30,000?
This market will resolve to "YES" if, after October 12 2022, Bitcoin reaches price of $15,000 or lower before it reaches the price of $30,000 or higher. Otherwise, it will resolve to "NO" Prices will be decided by Coingecko's 30-min candles (high and low) Oct 13, 7:23pm: Will Bitcoin (BTC) price reach $15,000 before $30,000? → Will Bitcoin (BTC) price dip to $15,000 before reaching $30,000?
2022-10-12T12:05:41
2023-04-20T11:51:41
2023-04-20T11:51:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GF5faOJmqdB1ajongLHr
Will Marco Rubio run for President in 2024?
{'type': 'doc'}
2022-10-11T19:00:54
2024-10-26T14:05:00
2024-10-26T14:05:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sCuhkR6dJBZtUADhGnJm
Will Greg Abbott run for President in 2024?
{'type': 'doc'}
2022-10-11T18:07:51
2024-06-29T11:53:35
2024-06-29T11:53:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ilmf7nXQ3rMC6h3IHFmu
Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?
Taken from the second prediction in the State of AI Report. >$100M is invested in dedicated AI Alignment organisations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety. This question will be resolved based on the resolution of the 2023 report.
2022-10-11T14:31:10
2023-10-11T20:59:00
2023-10-13T13:27:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-q8ZOsuL3X0E169LNqwIK
Will Te Pāti Māori be elected to the next New Zealand Parliament?
Close date updated to 2023-10-14 7:00 pm
2022-10-10T21:27:56
2023-10-14T23:00:00
2023-10-17T01:57:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv
Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M?
This cost should not include the salaries of researchers that worked on developing it, but rather only the cost of electricity + hardware. I will resolve this as best I can, based on potentially given estimates and other pieces of evidence.
2022-10-10T13:17:33
2024-06-01T20:59:00
2024-06-20T06:53:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-31aq6gAY2EWlsj5ndHuh
Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2024?
Resolves yes if there is a plant delivering electricity at any point during that year. #politics #world #technology #energy
2022-10-09T04:47:40
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-25T14:53:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Upc7XdpLhIfiOxtgNSOW
Will more than 100 Tesla semis be on the road before July 2023?
Resolves to YES if more than 100 electric-powered Tesla Semi trucks are on the road before July 1st 2023. Tesla Semi trucks that use diesel or hydrogen engines will not count.
2022-10-08T02:38:55
2023-06-30T09:01:00
2023-06-30T14:15:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9j5M7SdQuXCChVVxugOG
Will Ken Jennings’ record for Jeopardy winnings be beaten before 2024?
Ken Jennings set the record for regular total Jeopardy winnings ($2,520,700, according to https://gameshows.fandom.com/wiki/Jeopardy!/Records_%26_Statistics#Highest_Single-Game_Winnings) in 2004, but positions 2-6 on the ranking have all been from the last few years, including James Holzhauer’s very close $2,462,216. Will someone beat Jennings’ record in 2022 or 2023? Nov 23, 1:16pm: Will Ken Jennings’ record for Jeopardy winnings be beaten by 2024? → Will Ken Jennings’ record for Jeopardy winnings be beaten before 2024?
2022-10-07T21:00:35
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T00:12:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5DXvCxvjkPjk2aloZe0H
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in New York City by end of 2023?
This question will resolve as YES if a nuclear weapon detonates in the New York City metropolitan area after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO. Any of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution. See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis. Related (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-in-n)
2022-10-07T20:17:22
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T11:42:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CKtQbAt42Aasdjc57W26
Will the USA have a female president in 2023?
Temporarily transfers of power do not count.
2022-10-07T14:14:41
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T08:23:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aCOh9TqCYAxSxzVwjyuc
If Ukraine recaptures Cherson in 2022, Vladimir Putin remains in power at the end of 2023.
This question resolves N/A if Ukraine does not retake Cherson in 2022.
2022-10-06T15:21:44
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-06T06:11:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-KYFFG3mrvdbj7CKExCku
By 2024 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Based on Vincent Luczkow's 2029 market)
Will Vicent's market resolve yes before January 2024? If for some reason Vicent's market resolves in a way that is obviously wrong(for example if he resolves by accident) or he is unable to resolve the market then I'll use my own judgment. (https://manifold.markets/embed/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc)
2022-10-06T15:21:26
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-01T09:42:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wbAFBrLjGeThLW46slqE
Will US mortgage rates fall below 6% by 2023-04-01?
Resolves YES if the US average 30-year fixed rate mortgage reported on https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms falls below 6% on or before 2023-04-01. For reference, the most recent rate when this market opened was 6.66% on 2022-10-06.
2022-10-06T09:55:24
2023-04-01T05:21:17
2023-04-01T05:21:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mKuKAAsV3OCAEnhPwTCp
Will Vladimir Putin still be the leader of Russia at the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-06T05:14:24
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T00:17:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-9JLAK94P6fxbIJNDGmSU
Will the Euro to US dollar exchange rate less than 1.0 at the end of 2023?
Question resolves based on the exchange rate after New Years Eve in the Western European Timezone.
2022-10-06T03:45:03
2024-01-01T13:50:41
2024-01-01T13:50:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zt57uuMxvlLub3BWyP6b
Will there be realistic AI generated dialogue (with sound) by 2024?
The AI must generate dialogue (could be a conversation, a speech, whatever) and sound to go with it. e.g. "Give me a short conversation between two friends - one male with a high voice and the other female with a deep voice - about the weather"
2022-10-05T23:14:02
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-08T20:00:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QPsFrbirRMGiX8gakJnZ
Will it be possible for AI to generate reasonably good video ads by (start of) 2024?
"Reasonably good" - I watch it and think it's about as good as other ads There's no requirement that the video be photorealistic. Many ads are animated, if AI can generate good animated ads that counts. There doesn't need to be any proof or even evidence that these ads are in use. This question is about whether anyone will have demonstrated the capability. This could either be someone specifically prompting it to generate ads and getting reasonably good ones, or an AI system that can generate good video for a wide range of prompts of similar complexity. If an AI is specifically trained to not generate/be bad at ads but is otherwise good at generating complex video with sound from relatively simple prompts the question resolves yes.
2022-10-05T23:11:08
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-08T16:08:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7bWCBcWHDfmNfC5cNl7N
Will there be realistic AI generated video with full sound by 2024?
Minimum video length of 2 minutes, and must maintain coherence. "Sound" means dialogue and background noise. The visuals, any dialogue, and sound must all be of "reasonable" quality: it does not need to be indistinguishable from human made video, but there shouldn't be significant artifacts.
2022-10-05T23:06:49
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-03T13:07:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VgMa9JJ0X8WPm98ksGp3
Will there be realistic AI generated video with dialogue by 2024?
Minimum video length of 2 minutes, and must maintain coherence. The visuals, dialogue, and sound must all be of "reasonable" quality: it does not need to be indistinguishable from human made video, but there shouldn't be significant artifacts.
2022-10-05T23:04:51
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-08T16:09:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iHsGfgyZfexXnkgHubtM
Will Manchester City win the Premier League this season?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-05T12:56:04
2023-05-24T10:12:49
2023-05-24T10:12:49
yes
MANIFOLD