id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-aS7AQHVH2crFr2DUA66H | Will The Sunshine Protection Act, establishing permanent daylight saving time, pass the U.S. House by April 1, 2023? | The Sunshine Protection Act is a proposed United States federal law that would make U.S. daylight saving time permanent, meaning the time would no longer change twice a year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunshine_Protection_Act
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/623
Close date updated to 2023... | 2022-10-30T13:09:01 | 2023-04-01T14:59:00 | 2023-04-07T01:30:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ErPLu7QUQN5JbmBdfama | Will the Elfstedentocht take place in 2022-2023? | This question resolves to "YES" if the Elfstendetocht (the Dutch long-distance skating tour) is held at any time in winter/spring 2022-2023, i.e. before June 2023.
The Elfstendentocht occurs only when the ice is declared to be suitable, and its exact date is determined by the ice conditions. The most recent Elfstenden... | 2022-10-30T10:59:19 | 2023-05-27T02:46:39 | 2023-05-27T02:47:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4nWvvqp7D740JdLK3GyA | Chess: Will GM Hans Niemann Win His Lawsuit? | real money market: https://insightprediction.com/m/74967/chess-will-gm-hans-niemann-win-his-lawsuit
Background: On October 20, 2022 GM Hans Niemann announced that he had filed a lawsuit with the United States District Court, specifically the Eastern District of Missouri: Eastern Division. In his lawsuit, Niemann names... | 2022-10-30T05:20:58 | 2023-06-27T13:56:53 | 2023-06-27T13:56:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TU76c0GdIshxm8AQQJoM | Will Character.ai allow NSFW content by the end of 2023? | Character.ai is a recently launched AI chatbot service that allows users to interact with an extremely large variety of high quality, user-generated AI personalities. See their help page and the community tab for more info.
This market resolves "Yes" if the devs make an official announcement and implementation of allo... | 2022-10-30T05:01:28 | 2023-12-30T20:50:45 | 2023-12-30T20:50:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aD0RYL68wHs5wnaDNVAn | Will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by the end of 2023? | Assange is accused of conspiring to hack into US military databases to acquire sensitive secret information, which was then published by Wikileaks.
He says the information exposed abuses by the US military and that the case against him is politically motivated.
US prosecutors say the leaks put lives at risk. They req... | 2022-10-30T01:55:44 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T05:29:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NIQlBaP3fDuQ7VGjmidd | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2023? (tests included) | This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.
A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.
A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/... | 2022-10-29T07:43:58 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:11:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iew0lloCfGQai0JV34X5 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by the end of 2023? | This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 29, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.
A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.
A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental... | 2022-10-29T04:37:22 | 2023-12-30T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T04:51:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qk4iuV7vzpI9U97Cl0H8 | Will another (11th) child of Elon Musk be revealed by Dec 31, 2023? | Elon Musk is a (confirmed) father of 10 children with three different women.
This market will resolve to YES, if by December 31, 2023, another child of Elon Musk is revealed to the public, whether by a new pregnancy, or by revealing an already-born human as his daughter/son. | 2022-10-29T04:29:04 | 2023-09-11T05:51:22 | 2023-09-11T05:51:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-O0zJWj0vdR8uFrB63Ryj | Will Joe Biden be impeached twice in his first term? | This resolves yes if president Biden is impeached by the House of Representatives 2 or more times before the end of his first term.
Resolves no if he has been impeached fewer than 2 times when his term ends, even if he is later impeached for something that occurred within the term (as happened with Trump)
Similar ma... | 2022-10-28T15:21:58 | 2025-01-20T08:59:00 | 2025-01-20T09:02:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gLgPgY0Ifzhwot7txWue | Will Trump tweet before a nuclear detonation occurs? | YES if Trump tweets
NO if nuclear detonation
N/A if neither | 2022-10-28T12:29:30 | 2023-08-28T12:47:00 | 2023-08-28T12:47:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WPYO6EvMLjX10YIJMScJ | Will Google Chrome support third-party cookies by default on January 1, 2025? | This market will resolve to "yes" if a fresh install of the current supported version of Google Chrome for Microsoft Windows has third-party cookies enabled by default. | 2022-10-28T12:27:05 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T06:20:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LwMdlAfVeI7kxNNYxiQU | At the end of 2023 will Twitter be profitable? | This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk.
At the end of 2023 if Twitter is profitable this market resolves YES.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/299119/twitter-net-income-quarterly/
Post of related markets:
https://manifold.... | 2022-10-28T06:41:19 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:34:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ECwJcgZPTvPhOvPSZlag | Will Twitter's Daily Active Users growth rate be higher in 2023 than 2022? | Resolves YES if Twitter's monetizable Daily Active Users (mDAU) grows at a higher percentage rate in 2023 than in 2022. Otherwise NO.
More formally: if (DAU at end of 2023 / DAU at end of 2022) > (DAU at end of 2022 / DAU at end of 2021).
In the event that Twitter stops reporting mDAU but does report some sufficientl... | 2022-10-28T06:29:02 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-07T12:48:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SttdxBP4Edxqzq0ScDCH | Will Twitter still be privately owned by Elon Musk at the end of 2023? | This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk.
At the end of 2023 if Twitter is still privately owned by Elon Musk this market resolves YES.
Post of related markets:
https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of
| 2022-10-28T05:50:35 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:32:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8GvJLWcJOdiue3XR6En2 | Will Twitter have more annual revenue at the end of 2023? | This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk.
At the end of 2023 if Twitter has more annual revenue than it did in 2022 this market will resolve YES.
Google suggests $5 billion annual revenue in 2021.
Post of related markets:
htt... | 2022-10-28T05:44:27 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:37:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zk1sRPlX4cocvPUHwHno | Will Twitter have more Daily Active Users at the end of 2023? | This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk.
At the end of 2023 if Twitter has more daily active users than it did in 2022 this market will resolve YES.
Google suggests about 237.8 million daily active users.
Post of related mar... | 2022-10-28T05:42:28 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-03T14:45:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9JhMcnWHIgBpgEtmvWaA | Will Bolsonaro be imprisoned before the end of 2023? | Related markets:
[markets] | 2022-10-27T19:01:31 | 2023-12-31T19:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:31:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8o5e06tzmpKoBfFa4Np1 | Will Twitter accept Dogecoin (DOGE) as a method of payment before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-27T18:59:39 | 2023-12-31T20:25:45 | 2023-12-31T20:25:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IS1QNkKEYixJy6vwn854 | Will the price of Dogecoin (DOGE) top $0.682 anytime before the end of 2023? | From now until the end of 2023, will the price of DOGE ever beat it's record high of $0.682? | 2022-10-27T18:55:51 | 2023-12-31T20:36:50 | 2023-12-31T20:36:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-21KeLkxOSdDYRXB3E1OL | Will Google develop a cryptocurrency by the end of 2023? | If Google develops and announces the launch of a cryptoasset / cryptocurrency by December 31, 2023, this market will be resolved as “Yes”. | 2022-10-27T13:55:48 | 2023-12-31T20:36:14 | 2023-12-31T20:36:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EumqI7bNA9sdmSsTe3lX | Will anyone who cut ties with Kanye West work with him again by 2024? | Will anyone (person, business, agency, entity) who cut ties with Kanye West (Ye) recently as a result of his comments / behavior be back to working with him again by 2024? In the event he apologizes / takes corrective actions to resolve his issues and they allow him to redeem himself or something along those lines. | 2022-10-27T12:09:32 | 2023-12-31T20:38:21 | 2023-12-31T20:38:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2 | Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023? | Twitter permanently banned former president of the USA, Donald Trump, from the platform in January 2021 during the final days of his term. His handle @realDonaldTrump had over 88.9 million followers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once... | 2022-10-27T06:51:00 | 2023-08-25T09:19:15 | 2023-08-25T09:19:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bAX25hHJSCzjPgzXnI12 | Will Meta's VR gamble be seen as a good decision at the end of 2023? | Meta is all in on VR and the stock price is taking a big hit. Some claim Zuckerberg is a genius who has it all figured out, some say he is just pissing money away.
At the end of 2023 will the gamble be viewed as a good decision?
I will resolve based on a combination of factors including but not limited to how many u... | 2022-10-26T23:36:14 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T23:27:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YiRi4wvm8lAYKb5keV7p | Will Destiny launch a news site in 2023? | Resolves YES if a news website managed by Destiny The Streamer exists, and has at least 5 articles primarily written by contributors other than himself. | 2022-10-26T18:30:23 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:21:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rdUdikwUggc2HYZNOI7q | Will Destiny Drop Composition Challenge 11 By July 1, 2023? | In order for the "YES" to win, Destiny has to officially release the piece and start accepting submissions. | 2022-10-25T17:21:22 | 2023-06-30T21:00:00 | 2023-06-30T21:15:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JLcbTPgVSMLVnTwLJKHq | Will there be a deadly military conflict between North Korean and US forces by February 2023? | Resolves YES if by the end of February 2023, kinetic military action takes place between North Korean and US armed forces, causing at least 1 fatality. Resolves NO otherwise.
Background
US and South Korean intelligence expect North Korea could conduct its 7th nuclear test at any time - see https://manifold.markets/ja... | 2022-10-25T08:00:46 | 2023-03-01T06:47:52 | 2023-03-01T06:47:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ON3sdiFT3wWTm74r6i6P | Will another Breaking Bad/Better Call Saul Spin Off be announced before 2025? | If there is an announcement i deem offial enough before 2025 I will resolve Yes. | 2022-10-25T06:57:35 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-02-24T10:46:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qazzEZAwqzBMa8PypNT5 | Will the first Episode of season 2 of House of the Dragon air before March 2024? | Office air date, no leaks. | 2022-10-25T06:47:29 | 2024-02-29T14:59:00 | 2024-03-04T19:49:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ijfZo0QKxBE6kMATdo9U | Will Kanye West have a “redemption arc”? | Resolves YES with the standard "atonement"/reconciliation/walk-back of comments,
Resolves NO if has not occurred within two years.
@jack and others may weigh in--but these tend to be quite obvious and widely covered in the media | 2022-10-24T22:11:06 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-02-07T12:11:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-X7G5OFhF3Y0usplxLamh | Will there be a parliamentary election in the UK before 2024? | This question resolves to YES if the British people vote for all members of parliament before January 1, 2024 (i.e. special elections/by-elections don't count). Otherwise, it resolves NO. | 2022-10-24T22:02:06 | 2023-12-31T12:00:00 | 2023-12-31T21:12:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5mytd0DgdOkTom8cI4aF | Will TikTok be available on US App Store on June 1, 2023? | Multiple governmental agencies and private business have imposed or attempted impose bans on the social media service TikTok. Countries like India and the United States have expressed concerns about the app's ownership by the Chinese company, ByteDance, attempting to ban it from app stores.
Throughout Donald Trump’s... | 2022-10-24T11:50:58 | 2023-06-01T14:59:00 | 2023-06-08T08:23:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KqqpgA5On6hUSE5jVpvD | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister at the time of the next UK general election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-24T07:24:43 | 2024-07-04T12:18:46 | 2024-07-04T12:18:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-U9uGguDuY3qFvoYJOxLb | Will GBP/USD exchange rate fall below 1.00 by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-24T04:52:39 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:09:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vOLCHCm4D8BIqE3ZgZSJ | Will Mark Zuckerberg still be Meta's CEO on December 31, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-24T04:41:32 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T06:44:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LNSkREthulmLTMA6HNSI | Will Rishi Sunak hold the UK Prime Minister's office for at least one full year? | This market will resolve to "YES" if Rishi Sunak is the UK Prime Minister for at least 365 full days, counting from the time of pleading an oath of allegiance.
This market will resolve to "NO" if Rishi Sunak does not plead an oath by December 31 2022, or if for any reason he stops being the UK Prime Minister after spe... | 2022-10-24T04:38:02 | 2023-11-09T09:14:28 | 2023-11-09T09:14:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EiNQCYVSGtl1oetdqkf9 | Will Xi Jinping continue his reign at the 2023 chairman election of China? | Will Xi Jinping continue another term as the chairman of China at the 14th National People's Congress in March 2023? | 2022-10-24T02:10:55 | 2023-03-11T20:43:59 | 2023-03-11T20:43:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pQhaz6qLfQ4c1SXXmlc2 | Will Boris Johnson lose his parliamentary seat before the end of 2023? | Boris Johnson is in the running for Conservative leader again. But there is an ongoing Privileges Committee investigation into claims he misled parliament over lockdown parties in Downing Street. Should they find against him, possible sanctions include suspension from parliament, and even expulsion, triggering a by-ele... | 2022-10-22T12:56:34 | 2023-06-09T14:53:57 | 2023-06-09T14:53:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JsAtnPx8j7A0GzFYgFel | Will Biden be impeached in 2024? |
Close date updated to 2024-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-10-22T12:47:22 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-01T01:51:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xa1I62Ax33De66nvEUx5 | Will Biden be impeached in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}, {'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-22T12:46:54 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:06:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-L7hz7GF1uSN9eakAAqvk | Will the National Party form a government following the next New Zealand general election? |
Close date updated to 2023-10-14 7:00 pm | 2022-10-22T04:16:06 | 2023-11-02T23:00:00 | 2023-11-25T14:40:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vhQdnmBjCFD1lUIyAcla | Will Marijuana be removed from Schedule I of the US Controlled Substance Act by the end of Biden's current term? | This question resolves "Yes" if Marijuana is legalized or rescheduled by executive, judicial or legislative action by the end of the current presidential term.
Also reolves yes if Biden does not complete the term but Marijuana is legalized under Kamala Harris. | 2022-10-21T09:00:39 | 2025-01-20T18:39:51 | 2025-01-20T18:39:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-55BBrm0TPkZG8tcY6Xdo | Will Bitcoin’s price reach all-time high by the end of 2024? | After reaching the unit price of 67,617 USD on November 8th, 2021, Bitcoin has consistently lost value to the point of being trade for less than 20,000 USD in the following months.
If Bitcoin's price reaches a new all-time high value of at least 67,617 USD by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The ... | 2022-10-21T08:43:40 | 2024-03-07T03:49:26 | 2024-03-07T03:52:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pY1Ina0PnaIAqTG11brU | Will the 2024 presidential race be Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': []} | 2022-10-20T22:21:36 | 2024-08-06T01:47:48 | 2024-08-06T01:47:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SrQO9pHFeJIPLrJWhlgD | Will the 2024 presidential race be Gavin Newsom vs Nikki Haley? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': []} | 2022-10-20T22:21:33 | 2024-08-06T01:44:23 | 2024-08-06T01:44:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TVF59O26zXF5MmuldbrQ | Will the 2024 presidential race be Joe Biden vs Ron Desantis? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': []} | 2022-10-20T22:21:07 | 2024-08-06T01:43:16 | 2024-08-06T01:43:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-M4D6TUT8w9DohRsNWXXd | Will the 2024 presidential race be Joe Biden vs Donald Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': []} | 2022-10-20T22:21:03 | 2024-07-21T14:46:33 | 2024-07-21T14:46:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': []} | 2022-10-20T22:03:56 | 2024-08-05T08:59:00 | 2024-08-05T21:21:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hiUQ4DYdWAo7R2u8PxdA | Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': []} | 2022-10-20T22:03:53 | 2024-08-05T21:16:08 | 2024-08-05T21:16:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1Fo4sqdjs8B97hVKDNvo | Will Nikki Haley be the Republican Nominee for President in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': []} | 2022-10-20T22:03:45 | 2024-07-22T12:29:19 | 2024-07-22T12:29:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yCCpy2uFOd5LhEFYa4HR | Will Hans Niemann receive a judgment or settlement of at least $1M USD from any combination of the defendants in his lawsuit? | This question resolves to "Yes" if Hans receives a judgment or settlement of $1M or greater. This includes if the venue changes and the suit is refiled in a different jurisdiction. If the settlement is not public, it will be unresolved. Any other alternative will be resolved as a "No."
Oct 21, 12:47pm: Will Hans Niema... | 2022-10-20T12:29:57 | 2023-07-09T23:16:03 | 2023-07-09T23:16:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r3zEZVQvdakBpEDmtk8W | Will the USA housing market crash before 2024? | Resolves based on the CSUSHPINSA (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa).
Will it decline at least 15% from its peak of 308.47 at any time before the end of 2023?
Resolves YES as soon as the index is below 262.20 for any month in 2022 or 2023. NO if December 2023 is released and this condition has not been me... | 2022-10-20T11:39:22 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-05-27T19:35:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iXjmJAKPFrC7xhkp5dXg | Arctic sea ice extent will reach a new record low in 2023 | http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Artic sea lows are usually in september. Will resolve yes if new record reached. 2012 record | 2022-10-20T09:10:29 | 2023-10-30T20:59:00 | 2023-10-31T03:58:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YdF6u6ZoXBW2LNRQbhrf | Will the Tories win the next general election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-20T06:21:18 | 2024-07-05T02:48:26 | 2024-07-05T02:48:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GU8UcRSh1tJWmGsDPwAe | Will the Supreme Court overturn California's pig cage ban in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross? | See this Vox article for a good primer on why this case is important:
National Pork Producers Council v. Ross — hinges on a simple question: Can California set its own standards for how pigs are treated on farms, even when they’re raised in other states?
The case centers, quite literally, on how sausage gets made in ... | 2022-10-19T19:41:18 | 2023-05-11T16:10:13 | 2023-05-11T16:10:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-E3Iy0nWYLRZrbjyW6qUp | Will Amber Heard be removed from Aquaman 2? | With the unfolding of Johhny Depp vs Amber Heard's trial in the courtroom, the actress lost screen time in the movie Aquaman 2, allegedly having her participation reduced to less than 10 minutes. Nonetheless, there are still initiatives attempting to have her entirely removed from the movie, including an online petitio... | 2022-10-19T18:17:44 | 2023-12-21T09:58:34 | 2023-12-21T09:58:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-55umkDH3YW3lL0DIq8Kg | Will Bitcoin’s price reach another all-time high by the end of 2023? | After reaching the unit price of 67,617 USD on November 8th, 2021, Bitcoin has consistently lost value to the point of being trade for less than 20,000 USD in the following months.
If Bitcoin's price reaches a new all-time high value of at least 67,617 USD by December 31, 2023, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The ... | 2022-10-19T18:16:01 | 2023-12-31T20:32:34 | 2023-12-31T20:32:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-H2ErC4AbupNA0KUHaYX4 | Will Bitcoin mining be regulated in the US by the end of 2024? | Following the Chinese prohibition of Bitcoin mining in September 2021, the United States became the country concentrating most of this type of activity in the world.
If by December 31st, 2024, Bitcoin mining goes through federal regulatory restrictions in the United States of America, imposed through acts of the Execu... | 2022-10-19T18:02:40 | 2024-12-30T09:52:05 | 2024-12-30T09:52:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f4jgUMbfwwVUeMICyxTQ | Will the Irish Reunification of 2024 happen? | TNG Called it. UK is weak!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/IbSGp4WIBsQ) | 2022-10-19T10:20:34 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:38:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cxdi2amEVJeMkIC8PxWB | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms? | Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Gigacasting/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-732b02483e1c) | 2022-10-19T08:23:56 | 2023-03-01T22:10:24 | 2023-03-01T22:10:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hpWLpiMpABaQtzKpJ4wL | The war in Ukraine is still "hot" at the end of August 2023 | Made for a challenge bet that might get someone on the site
Oct 19, 5:26am: The war in Ukraine still be "hot" at the end of August 2023 → The war in Ukraine is still "hot" at the end of August 2023
Close date updated to 2023-08-18 3:08 am | 2022-10-19T00:08:56 | 2023-08-31T20:59:00 | 2023-09-01T00:07:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nibpOy8r48jyDcGStwlm | Will Avraham Eisenberg successfully conduct "a profitable trade" against Aave? | Will Avi successfully pull off an Aave 'exploit'? (Will he end net positive in the immediate aftermath (ie. not counting court battles years down the line) )
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/GeorgeVii/will-avraham-eisenburg-attempt-to-c)Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-10-18T17:36:20 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T21:56:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rlNrrJC4cNvwGNrAyLoQ | Will Kanye West buy Parler by June 2023? | Resolves YES if an offer to buy Parler led by Kanye West (a.k.a. "Ye") succeeds by June 2023. (It is not necessary that Kanye West provide a majority of the capital.)
This is a parallel market to an existing one asking whether the transaction will be consummated by year-end. I'm curious to what extent the probability ... | 2022-10-17T21:12:45 | 2023-07-01T00:59:00 | 2023-07-01T02:55:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-46U81GEOye6VhYHduDOY | Will Joe Biden put pronouns in the bio of his personal Twitter account before the end of his current term? | This question shall resolve YES if Joe Biden puts pronouns in the bio of his personal @JoeBiden at some point in his current term as President. It shall resolve NO of this never occurs.
Oct 17, 7:55pm: Will Joe Biden out pronouns in the bio of his personal Twitter account before the end of his current term? → Will Joe... | 2022-10-17T17:55:02 | 2025-01-20T21:59:00 | 2025-01-21T05:26:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3UwZhAbgxDTlqRPiNPrg | After april, will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2023? | Resolves yes if there is a plant delivering electricity at any point, after april, during that year. | 2022-10-17T14:30:09 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-05T06:04:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1ZTwVGJeFTOu5jlN40ac | Will Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom be released in May 2023? | Nintendo announced the official release date for May 12, 2023, but the release has previously been delayed.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.polygon.com/platform/amp/22690064/zela-botw-2-tears-of-the-kingdom-title-release-date-nintendo-switch | 2022-10-17T13:34:11 | 2023-05-11T17:10:41 | 2023-05-11T17:10:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PVOtGGMnfzQDNZq3ezug | Will Kanye release a #1 or $5m+ album by 2025? | Peak US chart position or reported revenue
| 2022-10-17T09:59:57 | 2024-02-13T19:46:34 | 2024-02-13T19:46:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jRR1686JZr2gerY5rhwi | Will more than 20 organizations publicly train large language models by 2024? | For this market a large language model is a language model trained using an amount of compute that is within an order of magnitude of the compute used to train the largest language model
It is not just based on parameter count.
I'll accept starting with an pretrained model and then doing additional training/finetunin... | 2022-10-16T20:35:57 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-09T08:33:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SvIbbIGnpOsqjjXMHdaU | Will there be a new nuclear reactor operating in Germany, in 2023? | Resolves yes if there is a reactor, that didn't deliver electricity in 2022, delivering electricity at any point during that year.
#politics #world #technology #energy | 2022-10-16T17:00:34 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-12T13:23:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n2pjMMF0CRNt9EdBmZuI | Will Donald J. Trump ever be elected President? (again) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}, {'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-16T13:18:29 | 2024-11-06T15:37:16 | 2024-11-06T15:37:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ff9bQeKYeELvN0xgVeiv | Will Trump’s running mate be female? | As Republican nominee or otherwise | 2022-10-16T11:05:40 | 2024-07-15T12:37:06 | 2024-07-15T12:37:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RQRoeChXrJY6yfOgyaLQ | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated while Biden is President? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-16T08:14:36 | 2025-02-13T14:30:00 | 2025-02-13T14:30:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eE1NIuaN1fixmAP1m2WZ | Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person at the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-15T17:11:24 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2024-01-01T01:03:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lC7e9jE44QA0OoxqNON1 | Will Germany legalize Cannabis before 2024? | The market will resolve Yes if the law legalizing Cannabis in Germany comes into effect in 2023. In Geemany, Laws come into effect either on the date stated in the law itself or if not stated explicitly 14 days after the law was announced in the Bundesanzeiger. Thank you for the discussion that helped me clarify the cr... | 2022-10-15T13:51:31 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:44:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IC4g25xhx3xlQBhakafX | "The Purge": Will Ethereum change SELFDESTRUCT by 2024-01-01? | Vitalik Buterin has proposed Ethereum protocol upgrades that ban or neuter the SELFDESTRUCT EVM opcode. This resolves YES if the functionality of SELFDESTRUCT has changed in any way by the close date.
Apr 23, 7:23pm: "The Purge": Will Ethereum change SELFDESTRUCT by 2024? → "The Purge": Will Ethereum change SELFDESTRU... | 2022-10-15T12:22:10 | 2024-01-01T21:59:00 | 2024-01-02T00:42:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zCYoUTxxIV0sSP2KGTk5 | Will the 80k podcast slow down Rob's speech to match his guest so that you can speed up both of their speech together? | Can be an alternative version of the podcast. Market resolves end of 2023 or if a non-parody episode is produced in this form. If guests are sped up to match rob, this market resolves positively. If it hasn't happened by market close, market resolves no.
[image] | 2022-10-15T07:39:17 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T22:05:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uRtYjlIDBSFk6Trst8Yl | "The Scourge": Will Ethereum have Proposer-Builder Separation by end of 2023? | This resolves YES if the Ethereum L1 protocol uses some kind of proposer-builder separation by the resolution date. You can read about PBS here. I'll use my best judgement about what kinds of upgrades count as PBS, but a major criterion I will use is whether the Ethereum Foundation describes the upgrade as PBS.
Nov 6,... | 2022-10-15T06:27:34 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:24:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-07hha4bB35ICm8oSB4N8 | "The Surge": Will target gas per Ethereum block double by end of 2023? | Since the London upgrade, the Ethereum network has used the EIP-1559 mechanism to target a certain amount of gas use in each block, currently 15 Million gas.
I will normalize to the gas cost of a Uniswap v2 transaction, as reported by Etherscan's Gas Tracker, which currently lists a gas limit of 152809 for this transa... | 2022-10-15T06:20:31 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:24:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aPaYMgqaW3LxZMZOV2LM | Will Avraham Eisenberg spend at least 6 months in jail before the end of 2030? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-13T09:53:51 | 2023-07-06T05:36:30 | 2023-07-06T05:36:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QFGMu7yJVvUwiVGXmTUZ | Will PredictIt's lawsuit against the CFTC be successful? (2023) | Background: Unpredictable Future of Political Prediction Markets / Why I'm Suing the Federal Government over PredictIt
Resolves YES if the PredictIt's suit is resolved before the end of 2023 and "allow[s] all existing markets to resolve in an orderly manner past February 2023" | 2022-10-12T12:10:25 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:05:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6lAWwHyowFrNJYejexfE | Will Bitcoin (BTC) price dip to $15,000 before reaching $30,000? | This market will resolve to "YES" if, after October 12 2022, Bitcoin reaches price of $15,000 or lower before it reaches the price of $30,000 or higher.
Otherwise, it will resolve to "NO"
Prices will be decided by Coingecko's 30-min candles (high and low)
Oct 13, 7:23pm: Will Bitcoin (BTC) price reach $15,000 before... | 2022-10-12T12:05:41 | 2023-04-20T11:51:41 | 2023-04-20T11:51:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GF5faOJmqdB1ajongLHr | Will Marco Rubio run for President in 2024? | {'type': 'doc'} | 2022-10-11T19:00:54 | 2024-10-26T14:05:00 | 2024-10-26T14:05:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sCuhkR6dJBZtUADhGnJm | Will Greg Abbott run for President in 2024? | {'type': 'doc'} | 2022-10-11T18:07:51 | 2024-06-29T11:53:35 | 2024-06-29T11:53:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ilmf7nXQ3rMC6h3IHFmu | Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety? | Taken from the second prediction in the State of AI Report.
>$100M is invested in dedicated AI Alignment organisations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety.
This question will be resolved based on the resolution of the 2023 report. | 2022-10-11T14:31:10 | 2023-10-11T20:59:00 | 2023-10-13T13:27:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-q8ZOsuL3X0E169LNqwIK | Will Te Pāti Māori be elected to the next New Zealand Parliament? |
Close date updated to 2023-10-14 7:00 pm | 2022-10-10T21:27:56 | 2023-10-14T23:00:00 | 2023-10-17T01:57:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv | Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M? | This cost should not include the salaries of researchers that worked on developing it, but rather only the cost of electricity + hardware. I will resolve this as best I can, based on potentially given estimates and other pieces of evidence. | 2022-10-10T13:17:33 | 2024-06-01T20:59:00 | 2024-06-20T06:53:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-31aq6gAY2EWlsj5ndHuh | Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2024? | Resolves yes if there is a plant delivering electricity at any point during that year.
#politics #world #technology #energy | 2022-10-09T04:47:40 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-25T14:53:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Upc7XdpLhIfiOxtgNSOW | Will more than 100 Tesla semis be on the road before July 2023? | Resolves to YES if more than 100 electric-powered Tesla Semi trucks are on the road before July 1st 2023.
Tesla Semi trucks that use diesel or hydrogen engines will not count. | 2022-10-08T02:38:55 | 2023-06-30T09:01:00 | 2023-06-30T14:15:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9j5M7SdQuXCChVVxugOG | Will Ken Jennings’ record for Jeopardy winnings be beaten before 2024? | Ken Jennings set the record for regular total Jeopardy winnings ($2,520,700, according to https://gameshows.fandom.com/wiki/Jeopardy!/Records_%26_Statistics#Highest_Single-Game_Winnings) in 2004, but positions 2-6 on the ranking have all been from the last few years, including James Holzhauer’s very close $2,462,216. W... | 2022-10-07T21:00:35 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:12:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5DXvCxvjkPjk2aloZe0H | Will a nuclear weapon detonate in New York City by end of 2023? | This question will resolve as YES if a nuclear weapon detonates in the New York City metropolitan area after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.
Any of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution.
See https://manifold.markets/post/nucl... | 2022-10-07T20:17:22 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:42:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CKtQbAt42Aasdjc57W26 | Will the USA have a female president in 2023? | Temporarily transfers of power do not count. | 2022-10-07T14:14:41 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:23:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aCOh9TqCYAxSxzVwjyuc | If Ukraine recaptures Cherson in 2022, Vladimir Putin remains in power at the end of 2023. | This question resolves N/A if Ukraine does not retake Cherson in 2022. | 2022-10-06T15:21:44 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-06T06:11:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KYFFG3mrvdbj7CKExCku | By 2024 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Based on Vincent Luczkow's 2029 market) | Will Vicent's market resolve yes before January 2024?
If for some reason Vicent's market resolves in a way that is obviously wrong(for example if he resolves by accident) or he is unable to resolve the market then I'll use my own judgment.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc) | 2022-10-06T15:21:26 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T09:42:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wbAFBrLjGeThLW46slqE | Will US mortgage rates fall below 6% by 2023-04-01? | Resolves YES if the US average 30-year fixed rate mortgage reported on https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms falls below 6% on or before 2023-04-01.
For reference, the most recent rate when this market opened was 6.66% on 2022-10-06. | 2022-10-06T09:55:24 | 2023-04-01T05:21:17 | 2023-04-01T05:21:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mKuKAAsV3OCAEnhPwTCp | Will Vladimir Putin still be the leader of Russia at the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-06T05:14:24 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:17:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9JLAK94P6fxbIJNDGmSU | Will the Euro to US dollar exchange rate less than 1.0 at the end of 2023? | Question resolves based on the exchange rate after New Years Eve in the Western European Timezone. | 2022-10-06T03:45:03 | 2024-01-01T13:50:41 | 2024-01-01T13:50:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zt57uuMxvlLub3BWyP6b | Will there be realistic AI generated dialogue (with sound) by 2024? | The AI must generate dialogue (could be a conversation, a speech, whatever) and sound to go with it.
e.g. "Give me a short conversation between two friends - one male with a high voice and the other female with a deep voice - about the weather" | 2022-10-05T23:14:02 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-08T20:00:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QPsFrbirRMGiX8gakJnZ | Will it be possible for AI to generate reasonably good video ads by (start of) 2024? | "Reasonably good" - I watch it and think it's about as good as other ads
There's no requirement that the video be photorealistic. Many ads are animated, if AI can generate good animated ads that counts.
There doesn't need to be any proof or even evidence that these ads are in use. This question is about whether anyon... | 2022-10-05T23:11:08 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-08T16:08:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7bWCBcWHDfmNfC5cNl7N | Will there be realistic AI generated video with full sound by 2024? | Minimum video length of 2 minutes, and must maintain coherence. "Sound" means dialogue and background noise.
The visuals, any dialogue, and sound must all be of "reasonable" quality: it does not need to be indistinguishable from human made video, but there shouldn't be significant artifacts. | 2022-10-05T23:06:49 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-03T13:07:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VgMa9JJ0X8WPm98ksGp3 | Will there be realistic AI generated video with dialogue by 2024? | Minimum video length of 2 minutes, and must maintain coherence. The visuals, dialogue, and sound must all be of "reasonable" quality: it does not need to be indistinguishable from human made video, but there shouldn't be significant artifacts. | 2022-10-05T23:04:51 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-08T16:09:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iHsGfgyZfexXnkgHubtM | Will Manchester City win the Premier League this season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-05T12:56:04 | 2023-05-24T10:12:49 | 2023-05-24T10:12:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.