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(Audience: B.) Nicholas Christakis: B, it's obvious. | (Audience: B.) Nicholas Christakis: B, c'est évident. | en-fr |
B is located on the edge of the network. | B在网络的边缘。 | en-zh-cn |
Now, who would you rather be if a juicy piece of gossip were spreading through the network? | Сега, кой бихте искали да бъдете, ако пикантна клюка са разпространява през мрежата? | en-bg |
A. And you have an immediate appreciation that A is going to be more likely to get the thing that's spreading and to get it sooner by virtue of their structural location within the network. | A. I możecie niemal natychmiast zauważyć że A ma większe szanse aby dostać tę rzecz która się rozprzestrzenia i dostać prędzej ze względu na na jego położenie w strukturach sieci. | en-pl |
A, in fact, is more central, and this can be formalized mathematically. | A比較靠近中央， 這可以用數學形式來描述。 | en-zh-tw |
So, if we want to track something that was spreading through a network, what we ideally would like to do is to set up sensors on the central individuals within the network, including node A, monitor those people that are right there in the middle of the network, and somehow get an early detection of whatever it is that... | Таким образом, если мы хотим отследить что-то, что распространяется по сети, в идеале нам надо бы установить сенсорное устройство на людей, находящихся в центре данной сети, включая узел А, следить за людьми, которые находятся прямо в центре сети, и таким образом распознать на ранней стадии элемент, распространяющийся ... | en-ru |
So if you saw them contract a germ or a piece of information, you would know that, soon enough, everybody was about to contract this germ or this piece of information. | То јест, ако их видите да се заразе бацилом или неком информацијом, знаћете да ће, ускоро, сви да се заразе тим бацилом или том информацијом. | en-sr |
And this would be much better than monitoring six randomly chosen people, without reference to the structure of the population. | Και αυτό θα ήταν πολύ καλύτερο από το να παρακολουθείς έξι τυχαία επιλεγμένους ανθρώπους, χωρίς αναφορά στη δομή του πληθυσμού. | en-el |
And in fact, if you could do that, what you would see is something like this. | 若是真的能夠實行， 我們會得到類似這樣的情況： | en-zh-tw |
On the left-hand panel, again, we have the S-shaped curve of adoption. | בפאנל השמאלי יש לנו, שוב, את עקומת ה-S של אימוץ החידוש. | en-he |
In the dotted red line, we show what the adoption would be in the random people, and in the left-hand line, shifted to the left, we show what the adoption would be in the central individuals within the network. | En la línea roja punteada mostramos cómo sería la adopción en las personas elegidas al azar y en la línea de la izquierda, desplazada a la izquierda, mostramos cómo sería la adopción en los individuos del centro de la red. | en-es |
On the Y-axis is the cumulative instances of contagion, and on the X-axis is the time. | Sur l'axe des Y on a le nombre cumulé de contagions, et sur l'axe X, le temps. | en-fr |
And on the right-hand side, we show the same data, but here with daily incidence. | Ve sağ tarafta, aynı veriyi gösteriyoruz ancak; burada gösterilen günlük vak'alar. | en-tr |
And what we show here is -- like, here -- very few people are affected, more and more and more and up to here, and here's the peak of the epidemic. | E o que mostramos aqui é - como, aqui - muito poucas pessoas são afectadas, e mais e mais e mais até aqui, e aqui está o pico da epidemia. | en-pt |
But shifted to the left is what's occurring in the central individuals. | Nhưng dịch sang bên trái là những người ở trung tâm. | en-vi |
And this difference in time between the two is the early detection, the early warning we can get, about an impending epidemic in the human population. | E esta diferença no tempo entre as duas é a detecção atempada, o aviso antecipado que podemos obter, acerca de uma epidemia iminente na população humana. | en-pt |
The problem, however, is that mapping human social networks is not always possible. | 然而，这个方法的难处在于， 测绘人类的社交关系网 并不总是可能的。 | en-zh-cn |
It can be expensive, not feasible, unethical, or, frankly, just not possible to do such a thing. | 이 일은 비용이 많이 들고, 아주 어려우며 비윤리적일 수도 있고 단순히 그냥 불가능 합니다. | en-ko |
So, how can we figure out who the central people are in a network without actually mapping the network? | Takže, jak můžeme zjistit, kdo jsou lidé ve středu sítě, aniž bychom tu síť mapovali? | en-cs |
What we came up with was an idea to exploit an old fact, or a known fact, about social networks, which goes like this: Do you know that your friends have more friends than you do? | O que surgiu foi uma idéia para explorar um fato antigo, ou um conhecido fato sobre redes sociais, que é o seguinte: você sabe que seus amigos têm mais amigos do que você? | en-pt-br |
Your friends have more friends than you do, and this is known as the friendship paradox. | 朋友的友人數目比自己擁有的還多， 通常這種情況被稱做「友誼悖論」。 | en-zh-tw |
Imagine a very popular person in the social network -- like a party host who has hundreds of friends -- and a misanthrope who has just one friend, and you pick someone at random from the population; they were much more likely to know the party host. | Bayangkan seorang yang sangat populer di jaringan sosial -- seperti tuan rumah pesta yang punya ratusan teman -- dan seorang antisosial hanya punya satu teman, kalau Anda memilih seseorang secara acak dari populasi itu; kemungkinan besar mereka kenal dengan tuan rumah pesta itu. | en-id |
And if they nominate the party host as their friend, that party host has a hundred friends, therefore, has more friends than they do. | Eğer ki bu kişiler parti sahibini arkadaşı olarak tanımlarlarsa, partiyi düzenleyenin yüzlerce arkadaşı vardır. bu nedenle de herkesten daha çok arkadaşı vardır. | en-tr |
And this, in essence, is what's known as the friendship paradox. | Et ce, en substance, est ce qu'on appelle le paradoxe de l'amitié. | en-fr-ca |
The friends of randomly chosen people have higher degree, and are more central than the random people themselves. | 무작위로 선택된 사람들의 친구는 그 사람들보다 높은 차수를 가지고 좀 더 네트워크의 중심적인 인물이 됩니다. | en-ko |
And you can get an intuitive appreciation for this if you imagine just the people at the perimeter of the network. | Megérthetik ezt intuitív módon, ha csak azokat az embereket képzelik el, aki a hálózat perifériáján vannak. | en-hu |
If you pick this person, the only friend they have to nominate is this person, who, by construction, must have at least two and typically more friends. | Αν διαλέξετε αυτό το άτομο, ο μόνος φίλος που έχουν να κατονομάσουν είναι αυτό το άτομο, ο οποίος, λόγω κατασκευής, πρέπει να έχει τουλάχιστον δύο, και τυπικά περισσότερους, φίλους. | en-el |
And that happens at every peripheral node. | E isso acontece em qualquer nó periférico. | en-pt |
And in fact, it happens throughout the network as you move in, everyone you pick, when they nominate a random -- when a random person nominates a friend of theirs, you move closer to the center of the network. | Et en fait, cela arrive dans tout le réseau à mesure que vous vous déplacez, quiconque vous choisissez, quand ils nomment au hasard ... quand une personne tirée au sort désigne un de ses amis, vous vous rapprochez du centre du réseau. | en-fr-ca |
So, we thought we would exploit this idea in order to study whether we could predict phenomena within networks. | Tak więc, postanowiliśmy wykorzystać ten pomysł w celu zbadania, czy możemy przewidywać zjawiska w sieciach. | en-pl |
Because now, with this idea we can take a random sample of people, have them nominate their friends, those friends would be more central, and we could do this without having to map the network. | Want nu, met dit idee, kunnen we willekeurige mensen nemen, hun vrienden laten voordragen die centraler zijn, en we zouden dit kunnen doen zonder het netwerk in kaart te brengen. | en-nl |
And we tested this idea with an outbreak of H1N1 flu at Harvard College in the fall and winter of 2009, just a few months ago. | И ние тествахме тази идея с разпространението на H1N1 грип в Харвардския колеж, през есента и зимата на 2009 година, само преди няколко месеца. | en-bg |
We took 1,300 randomly selected undergraduates, we had them nominate their friends, and we followed both the random students and their friends daily in time to see whether or not they had the flu epidemic. | Véletlenszerűen kiválasztottunk 1300 egyetemistát, megkértük, hogy nevezzék meg barátaikat, és figyelemmel követtük mind a kiválasztott egyetemistákat, mind pedig ezek barátait nap mint nap azért, hogy lássuk, elkapták vagy sem az influenzát. | en-hu |
And we did this passively by looking at whether or not they'd gone to university health services. | Y lo hicimos pasivamente observando si habían ido a los servicios de salud universitarios. | en-es |
And also, we had them [actively] email us a couple of times a week. | De asemenea, i-am rugat să ne scrie prin e-mail de câteva ori pe săptămână. | en-ro |
Exactly what we predicted happened. | 結果一如我們所預期。 | en-zh-tw |
So the random group is in the red line. | אז הקבוצה האקראית מסומנת בקו אדום. | en-he |
The epidemic in the friends group has shifted to the left, over here. | Epidemia w grupie przyjaciół jest przesunięta do lewej, tutaj. | en-pl |
And the difference in the two is 16 days. | 中间相差了16天。 | en-zh-cn |
By monitoring the friends group, we could get 16 days advance warning of an impending epidemic in this human population. | Durch das Beobachten der Freundes-Gruppe konnten wir 16 Tage Vorabwarnung vor einer bevorstehenden Epidemie in dieser menschlichen Population bekommen. | en-de |
Now, in addition to that, if you were an analyst who was trying to study an epidemic or to predict the adoption of a product, for example, what you could do is you could pick a random sample of the population, also have them nominate their friends and follow the friends and follow both the randoms and the friends. | またそれだけでなく アナリストが流行の研究や 新製品の普及の予測をしようするときに 集団からランダムに選んだサンプルと さらに挙げてもらった友人の 両方のグループを追跡することができます | en-ja |
Among the friends, the first evidence you saw of a blip above zero in adoption of the innovation, for example, would be evidence of an impending epidemic. | Ανάμεσα στους φίλους, η πρώτη ένδειξη που θα βλέπατε μιας μικρής μεταβολής πάνω από το μηδέν στην υιοθέτηση καινοτομίας, για παράδειγμα, θα ήταν στοιχείο για μια επικείμενη επιδημία. | en-el |
Or you could see the first time the two curves diverged, as shown on the left. | Или как только вы увидите, что две кривые разошлись, как это показано слева. | en-ru |
When did the randoms -- when did the friends take off and leave the randoms, and [when did] their curve start shifting? | Kapan sampel acak... kapan teman mereka memisahkan diri meninggalkan sampel acak, kapan kurva mereka mulai bergeser? | en-id |
And that, as indicated by the white line, occurred 46 days before the peak of the epidemic. | Questo è successo, come indicato dalla linea bianca, dopo 46 giorni prima del picco epidemico. | en-it |
So this would be a technique whereby we could get more than a month-and-a-half warning about a flu epidemic in a particular population. | Deci aceasta ar fi o tehnică prin care am putea obține o avertizare cu o lună și jumătate înainte. despre o epidemie într-o anumită populație. | en-ro |
I should say that how far advanced a notice one might get about something depends on a host of factors. | Aș spune că avansul cu care primești un astfel de avertisment depinde de o multitudine de factori. | en-ro |
It could depend on the nature of the pathogen -- different pathogens, using this technique, you'd get different warning -- or other phenomena that are spreading, or frankly, on the structure of the human network. | Tergantung pada sifat alamiah patogen -- patogen yang berbeda dengan teknik ini, Anda dapat peringatan yang berbeda -- atau fenomena lain yang menyebar, atau tentang struktur jaringan manusia. | en-id |
Now in our case, although it wasn't necessary, we could also actually map the network of the students. | W naszym przypadku, mimo że nie było to konieczne mogliśmy zmapować sieć studentów. | en-pl |
So, this is a map of 714 students and their friendship ties. | אז, זו מפה של 714 סטודנטים וקשרי החברות שלהם. | en-he |
And in a minute now, I'm going to put this map into motion. | Trong vòng một phút, tôi sẽ cho mạng lưới này chuyển động. | en-vi |
We're going to take daily cuts through the network for 120 days. | Πρόκειται να πάρουμε καθημερινές τομές μέσα στο δίκτυο για 120 μέρες. | en-el |
The red dots are going to be cases of the flu, and the yellow dots are going to be friends of the people with the flu. | Những chấm đỏ là các ca bị cúm, và những chấm vàng là bạn của những người bị mắc cúm. | en-vi |
And the size of the dots is going to be proportional to how many of their friends have the flu. | ve noktaların boyutu da o noktanın grip olan arkadaş sayısını gösteriyor. | en-tr |
So bigger dots mean more of your friends have the flu. | כך שנקודות גדולות יותר אומרות שליותר מחבריך יש שפעת. | en-he |
And if you look at this image -- here we are now in September the 13th -- you're going to see a few cases light up. | و اگر به این تصویر نگاه کنید، اینجا در سیزدهم سپتامبر هستیم تعداد کسانی که مبتلا به آنفولانزا هستند کم است | en-fa |
You're going to see kind of blooming of the flu in the middle. | インフルエンザが中心でポツポツ見られます | en-ja |
Here we are on October the 19th. | Här är vi på den 19:e oktober. | en-sv |
The slope of the epidemic curve is approaching now, in November. | La curva epidemica si avvicina adesso, a novembre. | en-it |
Bang, bang, bang, bang, bang -- you're going to see lots of blooming in the middle, and then you're going to see a sort of leveling off, fewer and fewer cases towards the end of December. | Hup, hup, hup, hup, je ziet het in het midden oplichten en dan weer minder worden met minder en minder gevallen tegen het eind van december. | en-nl |
And this type of a visualization can show that epidemics like this take root and affect central individuals first, before they affect others. | このような可視化によって こういった流行はまず 中央部の人間から感染して 他の人々に感染することが明らかになります | en-ja |
Now, as I've been suggesting, this method is not restricted to germs, but actually to anything that spreads in populations. | 제가 이제껏 언급한 것처럼 이 방법이 세균에만 국한되지 않고 실제로 집단에서 퍼져 나가는 모든 것에 해당됩니다. | en-ko |
Information spreads in populations, norms can spread in populations, behaviors can spread in populations. | Οι πληροφορίες εξαπλώνονται σε πληθυσμούς. Τα πρότυπα μπορούν να εξαπλώνονται σε πληθυσμούς. Οι συμπεριφορές μπορούν να εξαπλώνονται σε πληθυσμούς. | en-el |
And by behaviors, I can mean things like criminal behavior, or voting behavior, or health care behavior, like smoking, or vaccination, or product adoption, or other kinds of behaviors that relate to interpersonal influence. | Et par des comportements, je veux dire des choses comme un comportement criminel, ou le comportement de vote, ou le comportement relatif à la santé comme le tabagisme, ou la vaccination, l'adoption d'un produit ou, ou d'autres types de comportements qui ont trait à l'influence interpersonnelle. | en-fr |
If I'm likely to do something that affects others around me, this technique can get early warning or early detection about the adoption within the population. | Dacă sunt înclinat să fac ceva care îi afectează pe cei din jur, această tehnică poate avertiza, sau poate detecta din timp, adoptarea comportamentului în masa populației. | en-ro |
The key thing is that for it to work, there has to be interpersonal influence. | Le point clé est que, pour que cela fonctionne, il doit y avoir de l'influence interpersonnelle. | en-fr |
It cannot be because of some broadcast mechanism affecting everyone uniformly. | لا يمكن لها أن تكون بسبب بعض آليات البث تأثر بجميع الأشخاص بشكل موحد | en-ar |
Now the same insights can also be exploited -- with respect to networks -- can also be exploited in other ways, for example, in the use of targeting specific people for interventions. | Samma insikter kan även utnyttjas -- med avseende på nätverk -- kan även utnyttjas på andra slags sätt, till exempel, för att målsöka specifika människor för interventioner. | en-sv |
So, for example, most of you are probably familiar with the notion of herd immunity. | Så, till exempel är nog de flesta av er familjära med uttrycket flockimmunitet. | en-sv |
So, if we have a population of a thousand people, and we want to make the population immune to a pathogen, we don't have to immunize every single person. | Nếu ta có 1000 người, và muốn khiến họ miễn dịch với một loại bênh, ta không phải miễn nhiễm cho từng người. | en-vi |
If we immunize 960 of them, it's as if we had immunized a hundred [percent] of them. | Se imunizarmos 960, é como se tivéssemos imunizado cem [porcento]. | en-pt |
Because even if one or two of the non-immune people gets infected, there's no one for them to infect. | Want zelfs als er één of twee mensen besmet worden, kunnen zij niemand infecteren. | en-nl |
They are surrounded by immunized people. | 这两个人周围的人都已经免疫。 | en-zh-cn |
So 96 percent is as good as 100 percent. | このように96%は100%と同じくらい効果的です | en-ja |
Well, some other scientists have estimated what would happen if you took a 30 percent random sample of these 1000 people, 300 people and immunized them. | Nåväl, andra vetenskapsmän har estimerat vad som skulle hända om man tog ett 30-procentigt slumpmässigt prov av dessa 1000 människor, dvs 300 och immuniserade dem. | en-sv |
Would you get any population-level immunity? | Дали ще получим някакво ниво на имунитет на населението? | en-bg |
But if you took this 30 percent, these 300 people and had them nominate their friends and took the same number of vaccine doses and vaccinated the friends of the 300 -- the 300 friends -- you can get the same level of herd immunity as if you had vaccinated 96 percent of the population at a much greater efficiency, with... | Tapi kalau Anda ambil 30 persen ini, 300 orang ini, minta mereka menominasikan teman mereka mengambil jumlah dosis vaksin yang sama memvaksinasi teman dari yang 300 itu, 300 teman, Anda bisa mendapatkan imunitas kawanan yang sama seperti Anda memvaksinasi 96 persen populasi itu dengan efisiensi yang lebih besar, dengan... | en-id |
And similar ideas can be used, for instance, to target distribution of things like bed nets in the developing world. | 그리고 비슷한 아이디어는 예를 들어 개발 도상국에 침대 모기장과 같은 것을 공급할 대상을 선정하는 등의 일에도 적용할 수 있습니다. | en-ko |
If we could understand the structure of networks in villages, we could target to whom to give the interventions to foster these kinds of spreads. | Se pudermos perceber a estrutura das redes nas aldeias, podíamos definir a quem dar a ajuda para potenciar este tipo de propagações. | en-pt |
Or, frankly, for advertising with all kinds of products. | Hay cho việc quảng cáo mọi loại sản phẩm. | en-vi |
If we could understand how to target, it could affect the efficiency of what we're trying to achieve. | إذا فهمنا كيف نستهدف يمكن إن تؤثر على كفاءة ما نحاول الوصول إليه | en-ar |
And in fact, we can use data from all kinds of sources nowadays [to do this]. | Et en fait, nous pouvons utiliser les données de toutes sortes de sources de nos jours [pour le faire]. | en-fr |
This is a map of eight million phone users in a European country. | זוהי מפה של שמונה מיליון משתמשי טלפון בארץ אירופית. | en-he |
Every dot is a person, and every line represents a volume of calls between the people. | כל נקודה היא אדם, וכל קו מייצג את נפח השיחות בין האנשים. | en-he |
And we can use such data, that's being passively obtained, to map these whole countries and understand who is located where within the network. | Und wir können solche Daten, die passiv erhoben wurden, nutzen, um diese ganzen Länder abzubilden und zu verstehen, wer sich wo innerhalb des Netzwerks befindet. | en-de |
Without actually having to query them at all, we can get this kind of a structural insight. | Sin tener que interrogarlos en absoluto podemos obtener este tipo de conocimiento estructural. | en-es |
And other sources of information, as you're no doubt aware are available about such features, from email interactions, online interactions, online social networks and so forth. | Și alte surse de informație, după cum bine știți, sunt disponibile pentru caracteristici precum interacțiuni pe e-mail, interacțiuni online, rețele sociale online, și așa mai departe. | en-ro |
And in fact, we are in the era of what I would call "massive-passive" data collection efforts. | Thực tế, chúng ta đang ở trong thời đại mà tôi cho rằng thu thập một khối lượng dữ liệu đồ sộ và thụ động. | en-vi |
They're all kinds of ways we can use massively collected data to create sensor networks to follow the population, understand what's happening in the population, and intervene in the population for the better. | Det är alla olika vägar vi kan använda för massiv datainsamling för att skapa sensornätverk för att följa populationen, för att förstå vad som händer i en population, och för att ingripa för populationens bästa. | en-sv |
Because these new technologies tell us not just who is talking to whom, but where everyone is, and what they're thinking based on what they're uploading on the Internet, and what they're buying based on their purchases. | Karena teknologi baru ini memberitahu kita bukan sekadar siapa berbicara dengan siapa, tapi di mana mereka, apa yang mereka pikirkan berdasarkan apa yang mereka unggah ke internet. apa yang mereka beli berdasarkan pembelian mereka. | en-id |
And all this administrative data can be pulled together and processed to understand human behavior in a way we never could before. | これらすべての管理データを合わせて処理すれば 人々の行動を 以前はできなかった方法で理解できます | en-ja |
So, for example, we could use truckers' purchases of fuel. | Така например, бихме могли да използваме покупките на гориво на шофьорите на камиони. | en-bg |
So the truckers are just going about their business, and they're buying fuel. | И така, шофьорите на камиони развиват търговията си, и те закупуват гориво. | en-bg |
And we see a blip up in the truckers' purchases of fuel, and we know that a recession is about to end. | و نرى وميض في شراء سائقي الشاحنات للوقود و نعلم أن الكساد أوشك على الإنتهاء | en-ar |
Or we can monitor the velocity with which people are moving with their phones on a highway, and the phone company can see, as the velocity is slowing down, that there's a traffic jam. | Kita bisa memantau kecepatan orang-orang di jalan raya dengan telepon mereka, perusahaan telepon bisa melihat, kalau kecepatannya berkurang, berarti ada kemacetan. | en-id |
And they can feed that information back to their subscribers, but only to their subscribers on the same highway located behind the traffic jam! | Et ils peuvent transmettre cette information à leurs abonnés, mais seulement à leurs abonnés sur la même route situés derrière les embouteillages ! | en-fr |
Or we can monitor doctors prescribing behaviors, passively, and see how the diffusion of innovation with pharmaceuticals occurs within [networks of] doctors. | Ou podemos monitorizar os comportamentos de prescrição dos médicos, passivamente, e ver como a difusão de inovação com fármacos ocorre entre [a rede de] médicos. | en-pt |
Or again, we can monitor purchasing behavior in people and watch how these types of phenomena can diffuse within human populations. | Oder wiederum können wir Kaufverhalten von Leuten beobachten und sehen, wie diese Phänomene sich in menschlichen Populationen verbreiten können. | en-de |
And there are three ways, I think, that these massive-passive data can be used. | И има три начина, мисля, по които могат да бъдат използвани тези масивни-пасивни данни. | en-bg |
One is fully passive, like I just described -- as in, for instance, the trucker example, where we don't actually intervene in the population in any way. | L'une est entièrement passive, comme je viens de le décrire -- comme dans l'exemple du camionneur, où nous n'intervenons en aucune façon au sein de la population. | en-fr |
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