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But think of what it does to how we think in traditional terms and concepts. | Ale zamyslete se, co to zapříčinilo, jak přemýšlíme o tradičních pojmech a představách. | en-cs |
We think in terms of war and interstate war. | 我們用戰爭 或國與國之間的戰爭的角度來思考。 | en-zh-tw |
And you can think back to 1941 when the government of Japan attacked the United States at Pearl Harbor. | 大家可以想一想1941年， 日本政府 日本政府袭击美国珍珠港。 | en-zh-cn |
It's worth noticing that a non-state actor attacking the United States in 2001 killed more Americans than the government of Japan did in 1941. | これに対し 2001年 非政府組織が アメリカを攻撃し 1941年の真珠湾攻撃時を上回る数の アメリカ人の犠牲者を出したことは注目すべきでしょう | en-ja |
You might think of that as the privatization of war. | Można to określić jako prywatyzację wojny. | en-pl |
So we're seeing a great change in terms of diffusion of power. | Така че ние виждаме голяма промяна, по отношение на разпръскването на властта. | en-bg |
Now the problem is that we're not thinking about it in very innovative ways. | حالا مشکل این است که ما در باره شیوه های نوآوری فکر نمی کنیم. | en-fa |
So let me step back and ask: what's power? | Deixe-me então voltar atrás e perguntar: o que é poder? | en-pt |
Power is simple the ability to affect others to get the outcomes you want, and you can do it in three ways. | A hatalom egyszerűen mások befolyásolásának képessége a kívánt eredmény elérése érdekében. Erre három lehetőségünk van. | en-hu |
You can do it with threats of coercion, "sticks," you can do it with payments, "carrots," or you can do it by getting others to want what you want. | Μπορείς να το πετύχεις με απειλές, με εξαναγκασμό --με το ραβδί-- μπορείς να το πετύχεις με χρηματοδότηση --με το καρότο-- ή μπορείς να το πετύχεις κάνοντας τους άλλους να θέλουν αυτό που θες εσύ. | en-el |
And that ability to get others to want what you want, to get the outcomes you want without coercion or payment, is what I call soft power. | 그리고 여러분이 원하는 것을 다른 사람들이 원하도록 만드는 능력, 강압이나 보상 없이 여러분이 원하는 결과물을 얻는 그 능력을 저는 부드러운 세력(soft power)이라고 부릅니다. | en-ko |
And that soft power has been much neglected and much misunderstood, and yet it's tremendously important. | I ta "miękka" siła była dotychczas pomijana i źle rozumiana. A jednak jest niesamowicie istotna. | en-pl |
Indeed, if you can learn to use more soft power, you can save a lot on carrots and sticks. | En effet, si vous apprenez à employer davantage la puissance douce, vous pouvez économiser énormément de carottes et de bâtons. | en-fr |
Traditionally, the way people thought about power was primarily in terms of military power. | Обычно люди думали о власти в первую очередь как о военной мощи. | en-ru |
For example, the great Oxford historian who taught here at this university, A.J.P. Taylor, defined a great power as a country able to prevail in war. | Por ejemplo, el gran historiador de Oxford que enseñó en esta universidad, A.J.P. Taylor, definió como gran potencia al país capaz de imponerse en la guerra. | en-es |
But we need a new narrative if we're to understand power in the 21st century. | Pero necesitamos una nueva narrativa para entender el poder en el siglo XXI. | en-es |
It's not just prevailing at war, though war still persists. | No es sólo imponerse en la guerra, aunque la guerra todavía persiste. | en-es |
It's not whose army wins; it's also whose story wins. | Ini bukan tentara mana yang menang; namun juga cerita mana yang menang. | en-id |
And we have to think much more in terms of narratives and whose narrative is going to be effective. | Y tenemos que pensar mucho más en términos de narrativas y qué narrativa va a ser más eficaz. | en-es |
Now let me go back to the question of power transition between states and what's happening there. | Hadd térjek vissza az államok közötti hatalmi átmenet kérdéséhez, s ahhoz, mi megy végbe eközben. | en-hu |
the narratives that we use now tend to be the rise and fall of the great powers. | 我們現在所使用的闡述方法， 常常是強權的 崛起和殞落。 | en-zh-tw |
And the current narrative is all about the rise of China and the decline of the United States. | E a narrativa atual é sempre sobre a ascensão da China e o declínio dos Estados Unidos. | en-pt-br |
Indeed, with the 2008 financial crisis, many people said this was the beginning of the end of American power. | Während der Finanzkrise 2008 nannten viele es den Anfang vom Ende der Macht Amerikas. | en-de |
The tectonic plates of world politics were shifting. | Lempeng tektonik dari politik dunia bergeser. | en-id |
And president Medvedev of Russia, for example, pronounced in 2008 this was the beginning of the end of United States power. | Et le président Medvedev de Russie, par exemple, déclara en 2008 que c'était le début de la fin de la puissance américaine. | en-fr |
But in fact, this metaphor of decline is often very misleading. | 그러나 사실, 쇠퇴의 은유는 종종 지극히 오해의 소지가 있습니다. | en-ko |
If you look at history, in recent history, you'll see the cycles of belief in American decline come and go every 10 or 15 years or so. | Если обратиться к истории, к новейшей истории, то можно увидеть, что убежденность в упадке Америки приходит и уходит с цикличностью в 10-15 лет или около того. | en-ru |
In 1958, after the Soviets put up Sputnik, it was "That's the end of America." | 1958'de Sovyetler Sputnik'i yerleştirdiğinde, "Bu Amerika'nın sonu." | en-tr |
In 1973, with the oil embargo and the closing of the gold window, that was the end of America. | Em 1973, com o embargo do petróleo e o fim do padrão dólar-ouro, era o fim dos EUA. | en-pt-br |
In the 1980s, as America went through a transition in the Reagan period, between the rust belt economy of the midwest to the Silicon Valley economy of California, that was the end of America. | 1980년대, 레이건 대통령 재임 중, 중서부의 낡은 공장지대 경제에서 캘리포니아의 실리콘 밸리로 이동을 겪은 것도 미국의 종말이었습니다. | en-ko |
But in fact, what we've seen is none of those were true. | Но в действителност това, което видяхме е, че нищо от това не беше вярно. | en-bg |
Indeed, people were over-enthusiastic in the early 2000s, thinking America could do anything, which led us into some disastrous foreign policy adventures, and now we're back to decline again. | 事实上，正是人们在21世纪初 过分乐观， 认为美国无所不能， 导致了我们作出了一些灾难性的 外交政策， 现在又出现了美国衰落的声音。 | en-zh-cn |
The moral of this story is all these narratives about rise and fall and decline tell us a lot more about psychology than they do about reality. | A moral da história é que todas essas narrativas sobre ascensão e queda nos falam mais sobre psicologia que sobre realidade. | en-pt-br |
If we try to focus on the reality, then what we need to focus on is what's really happening in terms of China and the United States. | Pokud se pokusíme soustředit na realitu, pak se potřebujeme zaměřit na to, co se opravdu děje, pokud jde o Čínu a Spojené Státy. | en-cs |
Goldman Sachs has projected that China, the Chinese economy, will surpass that of the U.S. | Голдман Сакс сделал прогноз, что Китай, китайская экономика, превзойдет экономику США | en-ru |
by 2027. | 超越美國。 | en-zh-tw |
So we've got, what, 17 more years to go or so before China's bigger. | Jadi kita memiliki sekitar 17 tahun sebelum Cina menjadi lebih besar. | en-id |
Now someday, with a billion point three people getting richer, they are going to be bigger than the United States. | Một ngày nào đó, 1,3 tỷ người sẽ giàu hơn, và họ sẽ lớn mạnh vượt bật so với Mỹ. | en-vi |
But be very careful about these projections such as the Goldman Sachs projection as though that gives you an accurate picture of power transition in this century. | Maar wees heel voorzichtig met die soort projecties zoals die van Goldman Sachs, alsof die je een nauwkeurig beeld geven van de machtsoverdracht deze eeuw. | en-nl |
Let me mention three reasons why it's too simple. | Pozwólcie, że przedstawię 3 powody dla których takie myślenie może prowadzić do pochopnych wniosków: | en-pl |
First of all, it's a linear projection. | 第一，它是线性的预测。 | en-zh-cn |
You know, everything says, here's the growth rate of China, here's the growth rate of the U.S., here it goes -- straight line. | Ştiți, totul zice, asta-i rata de creștere din China, asta-i rata de creștere din SUA, ăsta e răspunsul -- linie dreaptă. | en-ro |
History is not linear. | Ma la storia non è lineare: | en-it |
There are often bumps along the road, accidents along the way. | Gyakran vannak kátyúk az úton, balesetek történnek útközben. | en-hu |
The second thing is that the Chinese economy passes the U.S. economy in, let's say, 2030, which it may it, that will be a measure of total economic size, but not of per capita income -- won't tell you about the composition of the economy. | 두 번째는, 중국 경제가 2030년에는 미국 경제를 넘어선다는 것은 총 경제 규모의 측정이지 1인당 소득에서는 아니라는 것은 그것이 경제의 구성 요소들에 대해서 말해줄 수 없다는 것입니다. | en-ko |
China still has large areas of underdevelopment and per capita income is a better measure of the sophistication of the economy. | w Chinach nadal są olbrzymie obszary zacofania. A wskaźnik per capita zawsze lepiej oddaje stopień wyrafinowania ekonomicznego. | en-pl |
And that the Chinese won't catch up or pass the Americans until somewhere in the latter part, after 2050, of this century. | ve Çinliler Amerikalılari ne yakalaycak nede geçeçekler belki beli bir zaman kadar bu yüzyılın 2050 sonra | en-tr |
The other point that's worth noticing is how one-dimensional this projection is. | نکته دیگر، توجه به اینکه چگونه این پیش بینی تک بعدی است، ارزشمند است. | en-fa |
You know, it looks at economic power measured by GDP. | این به قدرت اقتصادی با معیارتولید ناخالص داخلی نگاه می کند. | en-fa |
Doesn't tell you much about military power, doesn't tell you very much about soft power. | Nu spune mult despre puterea militară, nu spune mult despre puterea subtilă. | en-ro |
It's all very one-dimensional. | Genelikle tek boyutludur. | en-tr |
And also, when we think about the rise of Asia, or return of Asia as I called it a little bit earlier, it's worth remembering Asia's not one thing. | И кроме того, когда мы размышляем о подъеме Азии, или о возвращении Азии, как я выразился несколько ранее, важно помнить, что Азия не единая целостность. | en-ru |
If you're sitting in Japan, or in New Delhi, or in Hanoi, your view of the rise of China is a little different than if you're sitting in Beijing. | Pokud sedíte v Japonsku nebo v Novém Dillí nebo v Hanoji, váš pohled na vzestup Číny bude lehce odlišný než pokud budete sedět v Pekingu. | en-cs |
Indeed, one of the advantages that the Americans will have in terms of power in Asia is all those countries want an American insurance policy against the rise of China. | Notate che uno dei vantaggi che l'America avrà in questo contesto è che tutti questi paesi vogliono essere assicurati dagli Americani contro l'ascesa della Cina. | en-it |
It's as though Mexico and Canada were hostile neighbors to the United States, which they're not. | É como se o México e o Canadá fossem vizinhos hostis dos Estados Unidos, o que eles não são. | en-pt-br |
So these simple projections of the Goldman Sachs type are not telling us what we need to know about power transition. | Diese einfachen Darstellungen nach Goldman Sachs sagen uns nicht was wir über Machtverschiebung wissen möchten. | en-de |
But you might ask, well so what in any case? | Doch Sie fragen sich vielleicht, gut und warum auch? | en-de |
Why does it matter? Who cares? | Ist es von Bedeutung? Wen kümmert es? | en-de |
Is this just a game that diplomats and academics play? | 這是不是一場 外交官和學術家們在玩的遊戲? | en-zh-tw |
The answer is it matters quite a lot. | La réponse est que cela importe énormément. | en-fr |
Because, if you believe in decline and you get the answers wrong on this, the facts, not the myths, you may have policies which are very dangerous. | Porque, se você acreditar em declínio E obter as respostas erradas sobre isso, os fatos, não os mitos, você pode criar políticas que serão perigosas. | en-pt |
Let me give you an example from history. | Spróbuję zilustrować to na przykładzie | en-pl |
The Peloponnesian War was the great conflict in which the Greek city state system tore itself apart two and a half millennia ago. | ペロポネソス戦争は 今から2500年前に 古代ギリシャ都市国家を 分裂させるに至らしめた 都市国家間の激しい抗争でした | en-ja |
Thucydides, the great historian of the the Peloponnesian War, said it was the rise in the power of Athens and the fear it created in Sparta. | Tukidydes, wielki historyk Wojny Peloponezkiej stwierdził, że był to wzrost potęgi Aten i niepokój jaki wywołało to w Sparcie. | en-pl |
Notice both halves of that explanation. | Perhatikan kedua sisi penjelasan itu. | en-id |
Many people argue that the 21st century is going to repeat the 20th century, in which World War One, the great conflagration in which the European state system tore itself apart and destroyed its centrality in the world, that that was caused by the rise in the power of Germany and the fear it created in Britain. | Molti dicono che il ventunesimo secolo sarà una ripetizione del ventesimo, con la prima guerra mondiale, la grande conflagrazione con cui il sistema europeo di stati si disgregò e cessò di essere il centro del mondo. Si dice che questa guerra fu causata dall'ascesa al potere della Germania e dalla paura che provocò in Gran Bretagna. | en-it |
So there are people who are telling us this is going to be reproduced today, that what we're going to see is the same thing now in this century. | Vannak, akik azt mondják, hogy ez készül megismétlődni ma is, ugyanezt fogjuk tapasztalni a jelen században is. | en-hu |
No, I think that's wrong. | 私はそれは間違いだと思います | en-ja |
It's bad history. | وتأريخ رديء. | en-ar |
For one thing, Germany had surpassed Britain in industrial strength by 1900. | Por un lado, Alemania había superado a Gran Bretaña en poderío industrial en 1900. | en-es |
And as I said earlier, China has not passed the United States. | Și după cum am spus mai devreme, China nu a depășit Statele Unite. | en-ro |
But also, if you have this belief and it creates a sense of fear, it leads to overreaction. | Bovendien, als je dat gelooft en het maakt je bang, dan leidt dat tot overreactie. | en-nl |
And the greatest danger we have of managing this power transition of the shift toward the East is fear. | Và hiểm họa lớn nhất chúng ta có trong việc quản lý sự dịch chuyển quyền lực từ Tây sang Đông chính là sự sợ hãi. | en-vi |
To paraphrase Franklin Roosevelt from a different context, the greatest thing we have to fear is fear itself. | Um Franklin Roosevelt in einem anderen Kontext zu interpretieren, Das Einzige, was wir zu fürchten haben, ist die Furcht selbst. | en-de |
We don't have to fear the rise of China or the return of Asia. | Nous n'avons pas à craindre l'ascension de la Chine ou le retour de l'Asie. | en-fr |
And if we have policies in which we take it in that larger historical perspective, we're going to be able to manage this process. | Jeżeli przyjmiemy odpowiednią politykę, w której przyjmiemy odpowiednio długoteminową, historyczną perspektywę, uda nam się efektywnie zarządzać tym procesem. | en-pl |
Let me say a word now about the distribution of power and how it relates to power diffusion and then pull these two types together. | 現在讓我來談談 權力的分配 以及它和權力的擴散的關係， 然後在把這兩者連結在一起。 | en-zh-tw |
If you ask how is power distributed in the world today, it's distributed much like a three-dimensional chess game. | Jika Anda bertanya bagaimana kekuasaan di dunia dibagikan, kekuasaan akan terbagi seperti papan catur tiga dimensi. | en-id |
Top board: military power among states. | A felső tábla az államok közötti katonai hatalom. | en-hu |
The United States is the only superpower, and it's likely to remain that way for two or three decades. | Соединенные Штаты являются единственной сверхдержавой и, скорее всего, такое положение сохранится еще два или три десятилетия. | en-ru |
China's not going to replace the U.S. on this military board. | Η Κίνα δεν πρόκειται να αντικαταστήσει τις ΗΠΑ στη στρατιωτική σκακιέρα. | en-el |
Middle board of this three-dimensional chess game: economic power among states. | 中間的棋盤： 不同國家的經濟實力， | en-zh-tw |
Power is multi-polar. | Quyền lực là đa cực. | en-vi |
There are balancers -- the U.S., Europe, China, Japan can balance each other. | هناك دول توازن القوة الاقتصادية. الولايات المتحدة وأوروبا، اليابان والصين، باستطاعتهم موزانة بعضهم البعض. | en-ar |
The bottom board of this three-dimensional, the board of transnational relations, things that cross borders outside the control of governments, things like climate change, drug trade, financial flows, pandemics, all these things that cross borders outside the control of governments, there nobody's in charge. | Az alsó tábla határokon átnyúló nemzetközi ügyek, amelyeket kormányok nem tudnak befolyásolni, pl. a klímaváltozás, a drogkereskedelem, pénzmozgások, világjárványok; minden ügy, amely átnyúlik a határokon, s kívül esik kormányok irányításán, senki sem vonható értük felelősségre. | en-hu |
It makes no sense to call this unipolar or multi-polar. | Ezeket nincs értelme unipolárisnak vagy multipolárisnak nevezni. | en-hu |
Power is chaotically distributed. | パワーは無秩序に分布しているのです | en-ja |
And the only way you can solve these problems -- and this is where many greatest challenges are coming in this century -- is through cooperation, through working together, which means that soft power becomes more important, that ability to organize networks to deal with these kinds of problems and to be able to get cooperation. | Единственный способ решать эти проблемы — и здесь начинаются самые сложные задачи столетия — это путь сотрудничества, путь совместной работы, что означает, что мягкая сила становится более значимой, той возможностью налаживать сетевые связи для решения подобных проблем и установления сотрудничества. | en-ru |
Another way of putting it is that as we think of power in the 21st century, we want to get away from the idea that power's always zero sum -- my gain is your loss and vice versa. | Autrement dit, lorsque nous réfléchissons à la question du pouvoir au 21e siècle, il faut s'écarter de cette idée que le pouvoir est toujours un jeu à somme nulle -- mon profit est ta perte, et vice versa. | en-fr |
Power can also be positive sum, where your gain can be my gain. | 세력은 너의 이득이 나의 이득도 될 수 있다는 긍정적인 합계가 (포지티브 섬)이 될 수 있습니다. | en-ko |
If China develops greater energy security and greater capacity to deal with its problems of carbon emissions, that's good for us as well as good for China as well as good for everybody else. | 中国が二酸化炭素の排出量問題に対処するため エネルギーセキュリティーを向上させ エネルギー容量の増大を図れば 中国だけでなく 私たちにとっても 他の全ての人にとっても有益です | en-ja |
So empowering China to deal with its own problems of carbon is good for everybody, and it's not a zero sum, I win, you lose. | Έτσι, μια Κίνα που θα έχει την ικανότητα να αντιμετωπίσει το πρόβλημα εκπομπής διοξειδίων είναι κάτι καλό για όλους και δεν είναι ένα παιχνίδι μηδενικού αθροίσματος της λογικής κερδίζω-χάνεις. | en-el |
It's one in which we can all gain. | Es una suma en la que todos podemos ganar. | en-es |
So as we think about power in this century, we want to get away from this view that it's all I win, you lose. | Así que cuando pensamos en el poder en este siglo, queremos abandonar este punto de vista que es todo "yo gano, tú pierdes". | en-es |
Now I don't mean to be Pollyannaish about this. | Τώρα αυτό δε σημαίνει πως θα γίνουμε αισιόδοξοι σε ακραίο βαθμό. | en-el |
Wars persist. Power persists. | Ada perang. Ada kekuatan. | en-id |
Military power is important. | 군사력은 중요합니다. | en-ko |
Keeping balances is important. | Menjaga keseimbangan itu penting. | en-id |
All this still persists. | Tohle vše zůstane. | en-cs |
Hard power is there, and it will remain. | כח קשה עדיין פה, והוא יישאר. | en-he |
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