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0	The members agreed that the statement to be issued after this meeting should highlight their view that even after their firming today the risks remained weighted mainly in the direction of rising inflation pressures.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	But, first, on inflation expectations, it is true that the breakevens from the inflation-adjusted—inflation-indexed bonds have come down.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Employment continued to expand unevenly,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The Role of Government Policy You will have noted that I have not mentioned the role of government policy in creating a higher rate of trend productivity growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Given the difficulty in assigning productivity increases by industry, there is a dispute on how widely productivity implicit in the information revolution has spread across the economy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Although growth in output and employment slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The December employment report showed that job growth had slowed appreciably, and other indicators also pointed to emerging weakness in the labor market in the intermeeting period.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	As a policymaker, I can assure you that any model of inflation that did not take account of these effects, and how they might or might not affect ongoing rates of inflation, would have been of little practical use to the FOMC over the past few years.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Consequently, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	But you do see growth in services, so you—this pattern around the world of Chair Powell’s Press Conference FINAL weak manufacturing	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Even after adjusting for the effects of strikes on reported payrolls, the employment report for August showed weak job gains.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Foreign economic growth remained sluggish, restrained by weak activity in Europe and the associated spillovers--including through trade--to the rest of the world.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Broad equity prices rose, adding to their substantial gains since the middle of 2010.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	that is, the capacity utilization rate is lower than would have been expected, based on past experience, at the prevailing unemployment rate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Of course, many other factors also influence inflation, and some of these provide other possible explanations for the recent changes in inflation dynamics.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Some restraint on aggregate demand would come from other sectors of the economy--notably government spending, net exports, housing, and perhaps business inventories.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Real residential investment appeared to have declined again in the fourth quarter, likely reflecting in part decreases in the affordability of housing arising from both the net increase in mortgage interest rates over the past year and ongoing, though somewhat slower, house price appreciation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Moreover, a 50 basis point reduction that was associated with the communication of a Committee view that the risks to achieving its objectives for economic activity were balanced might be mistakenly interpreted in the view of some members as a signal that the Committee had come to the end of its policy easing moves--a judgment they were not prepared to make at this time.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Housing demand remained strong, but business fixed investment was still in the doldrums and consumer spending had flagged in late summer before apparently picking up somewhat in the autumn.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	During most of the recent episode, monetary policy broadly followed the Taylor Rule prescription, while holding the nominal federal funds rate about unchanged.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The vote encompassed approval of the paragraph below for inclusion in the press statement to be released shortly after the meeting: "The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters are roughly equal.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Participants observed that both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remained near 2 percent on a 12-month basis.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Some uncertainties, such as those associated with the election, had been resolved, but others persisted, including the prospects for oil prices and their consequences for the economy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In any case, however, the assessment of the adverse effects of the increase in longer-term rates on financial conditions and ultimately on economic activity would depend importantly upon the extent to which rates stabilized at current levels or instead continued to rise.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	He was concerned that the flattening yield curve was partly due to falling longer-term inflation expectations or a lower neutral real rate of interest.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	It was generally agreed that developments relating to energy would continue to exert upward pressure on prices over the near term, including the passthrough or indirect effects of higher oil prices on core measures of inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Returning to monetary policy, we recognize that there has been a great deal of focus on today’s policy decision.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In part, the high inflation reflects supply chain disruptions associated with the economic effects of the pandemic and efforts made to contain it.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Policymakers, economists, and market participants see much of this decline as reflecting a permanent fall in the equilibrium rate of interestâ€”that is, the level of the federal funds rate that keeps the economy at full employment with stable inflation in the longer run.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	On the other hand, the fact that productivity growth has remained solid in recent years increases confidence that a larger fraction of those productivity gains reflects longer-term developments and a smaller fraction reflects cyclical factors.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importanceâ€”and the challengeâ€”of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate.5 To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it will conduct policy to achieve inflation outcomes that keep long-run inflation expectations anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goal.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Now, we’ve long expected, as most analysts have, to see some slowing in Chinese growth over time as they rebalance their economy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In the absence of such shocks, and assuming appropriate monetary policy, participants' economic projections generally showed growth picking up to a moderate pace and the unemployment rate declining somewhat next year.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The available data for October suggested that the contribution of the change in net exports to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter would be much less negative than the drag of nearly 2 percentage points in the third quarter.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	However, the volatility of these and other commodity prices is such that possible future increases in these prices remain a risk to the inflation outlook.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	What does this suggest about monetary policy strategy going forward?	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Major stock price indexes were up a bit over the intermeeting period, as positive first-quarter earnings reports more than offset the negative effects of higher energy prices and rising interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The rationale for monetary policy tightening is, in my judgment, quite straightforward and flows from two assessments about the current state of the economy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In their assessment of factors leading to this decision, the members focused on the further evidence that moderating demand and accelerating productivity were closing the gap between the growth of aggregate demand and potential supply, even before earlier Committee tightening actions had exerted their full restraining effects.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Moreover, a change in the ranges might be misinterpreted as a signal of greater reliance on the broad monetary aggregates in the formulation and conduct of monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In any case, however, the assessment of the adverse effects of the increase in longer-term rates on financial conditions and ultimately on economic activity would depend importantly upon the extent to which rates stabilized at current levels or instead continued to rise.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The staff viewed the uncertainty around its December projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as similar to the average of the past 20 years.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Inflation-targeting regimes may allow some consideration of real-side costs either by specifying relatively long adjustment periods, to allow a high probability that the central bank can bring inflation down to the target within the allotted time, or by including "escape clauses" that grant temporary exemptions for large supply shocks.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Nonetheless, the current account deficit continued to grow as a result of the surge in U.S. investment and productivity and the associated capital inflows seeking the higher U.S. rates of return.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Indeed, the commitment to long-run price stability can afford the central bank some flexibility in employing its tools to address shorter-run economic issues.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	A concern that one might have about price-level targeting, as opposed to more conventional inflation targeting, is that it requires a short-term inflation rate that is higher than the long-term inflation objective.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Now I would like to turn to the current economic scene and this week's FOMC decision.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent in February and has been at or near half-century lows for almost two years.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	U.S. monetary policy responded to these global "headwinds," helping stave off actual contractions of U.S. activity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	We need to remember that in decades past it was believed that monetary policy was most effective when it was least transparent.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	For the United States, for example, the figure highlights the long run-up and subsequent fall in asset prices before the 2001 recession.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The moderation reflected lower growth in most major expenditure sectors.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In 1951, the Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord freed the Fed from the obligation to support Treasury bond prices.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	If you look at core PCE inflation, which is a good measure of where inflation is running now, if you look at it on a 3-, 6-, and 12-month trailing annualized basis, you’ll see that inflation is at 4.8 percent, 4.5 percent, and 4.8 percent.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	A particular phenomenon that touches on all these issues is the movement of asset prices, especially the prices of equities and residential real estate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Although real growth was likely to be moderate in coming quarters, in his view it was unlikely to be slow enough to bring core inflation down.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Higher and more stable growth combined with better ability to undertake long-term plans can help to improve the fiscal outlook for a country.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	"The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	There are a variety of versions of this basic approach, depending on measures of utilization and inflation rates and depending on whether the adjustment is made in response to past and current movements in utilization and inflation rates or in response to forecasts of these variables.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The changes to the policy statement that we made over the past few FOMC meetings bring our policy guidance in line with the new framework outlined in the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that the Committee approved last August.4 In our new framework, we acknowledge that policy decisions going forward will be based on the FOMC's estimates of "shortfalls [emphasis added] of employment from its maximum level"â€”not "deviations."	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Because long-term interest rates can remain low only in a stable macroeconomic environment, these goals are often referred to as the dual mandate	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	At longer maturities, yields drifted lower over most of the intermeeting period in response to incoming data that suggested economic growth would remain moderate and inflation subdued,	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Such departures of expectations from perfect rationality can be an important source of observed inflation dynamics.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Nevertheless, the role of this consideration in inflation dynamics should not be overlooked or underestimated.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Indeed, few long-term inflation forecasts in any country currently exceed 5 percent,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Setting the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances 15 basis points below the top of the target range for the federal funds rate was intended to foster trading in the federal funds market at rates well within the FOMC's target range.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Participants also observed that crude oil prices fell over the intermeeting period and other commodity prices also moderated, developments that were likely to damp headline inflation at the consumer level going forward.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The explanations included a decline in inflation risk premiums, possibly reflecting a lower perceived probability of higher inflation outcomes; and special factors, including liquidity risk premiums, that might be influencing the pricing of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and inflation derivatives.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In the Committee's discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, nearly all members favored keeping the target federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent at this meeting.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The Federal Reserve Bank of New York was authorized and directed, until instructed otherwise by the Committee, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: The information reviewed at this meeting suggests that the expansion in economic activity has slowed considerably after a very rapid advance in the first quarter.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	To keep the experiments as clean as possible, I assume that the economy begins at full employment and with both headline and core inflation at desired levels.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	still outpace that of potential over this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically low levels, as monetary policy was assumed to remain highly accommodative.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Mortgage credit conditions generally remained tight over the intermeeting period, though signs of easing continued to emerge amid further gains in house prices.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Several participants noted the increase in agricultural crop prices over 2020 and the associated improvement in farm revenues.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The economy is continuing to make progress toward the FOMC’s objective of maximum sustainable employment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The rationale for monetary policy tightening is, in my judgment, quite straightforward and flows from two assessments about the current state of the economy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Members again mentioned concerns on the part of business contacts regarding the adverse economic implications of very large deficits for the economy over the longer term.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Thus, knowing where productivity growth is headed is, in many respects, equivalent to foreseeing our economic destinies.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	However, with longer-term interest rates already very low, there did not appear to be a need for enhanced forward guidance at this juncture or much scope for forward guidance to put additional downward pressure on yields.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had changed little on balance.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	For the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England, they find heterogeneous views among voters, but no systematic differences based on whether the MPC member is an insider--that is part of the hierarchy at the Bank--or an outsider appointed for a short term just to the MPC; whether the person comes from an academic background; or whether that person has worked at the Treasury.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Eventually, financial markets may develop the instruments and associated analytical techniques for unearthing these implicit changes in the general price level with some precision.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Looking ahead, an abatement or reversal of some of the temporary factors reducing prices was likely to raise measured inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Flexible inflation averaging would bring some of the benefits of a formal average-inflation-targeting rule, but it could be more robust and simpler to communicate and implement.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	A second economic rationale that is often advanced for the development of cities and that seems applicable to the Sioux Falls experience is that of labor market pooling--the ability of an industry to take advantage of a labor force possessing a specific set of skills, thereby raising productivity compared with competing areas with a more dispersed set of skills.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Some Reasons for the Decline in Far-Forward Rates Why have the far-forward rates implied by the term structure of interest rates declined in recent years?	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Inflation had been subdued,	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Mr. Broaddus dissented because he continued to believe that a modest tightening of policy would be prudent in light of the apparent persisting strength in aggregate demand for goods and services.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The shift in the stance of monetary policy that we undertook in 2019 was, I believe, well timed and has been providing support to the economy and helping to keep the U.S. outlook on track.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Our tools work on demand.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	For example, given the starting point for the outlook, the forecasts will trace out a path for the economy to preserve or reestablish maximum employment and price stability that will reflect FOMC participants' views of the relative variation in output and inflation that is possible in the short run.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Despite the uncertainties, the consensus estimates of the NAIRU and the growth of potential give us a hint about what type of landing we should be aiming for and which of the scenarios depicted in figure 1 best describe the economy's initial conditions and prospects.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	It is generally thought that monetary policy takes many months to have most of its effect on the growth of output and employment, while, of course, it has an immediate impact on financial markets.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In that regard, the changes in the macroeconomic environment that underlie our monetary policy review may have some implications for financial stability.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The specific price-stability target of an inflation rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, was announced as part of the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy following the January 2012 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	That apparently has not made its way into prices yet, but how long before it becomes a factor driving inflation?	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.

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