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0 | In their comments about the external sector of the economy, members referred to indications of strengthening economic activity abroad that in conjunction with a weaker dollar was fostering some improvement in exports. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Almost all participants reaffirmed the view that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be consistent with sustaining the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | And, by the end of this year, I support having the policy rate at a level above neutral so that it is reducing demand for products and labor, bringing it more in line with supply and thus helping rein in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In considering the effectiveness of the operating regime, the staff observed that over recent years, the Federal Reserve had been able to implement monetary policy in an environment with ample reserves by adjusting administered rates--including the rates on required and excess reserve balances and the offered rate at the overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility--without needing to actively manage the supply of reserves. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Although members generally saw little risk that maintaining very low short-term interest rates could raise inflation expectations or create instability in asset markets, they noted that it was important to remain alert to these risks. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Monetary policy clearly can do little about the first-round effects of a permanent rise in energy prices, which include both its direct impact on the energy component of overall consumer prices and the pass-through of higher energy costs into prices of non-energy goods and services. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | However, most participants judged that inflation would stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The several extensions of emergency unemployment insurance benefits appeared to have raised the measured unemployment rate, relative to levels recorded in past downturns, by encouraging some who have lost their jobs to remain in the labor force. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Moreover, theory and intuition tell us that monetary credibility will be greatest when the central bank does what it is supposed to do: offset economic shocks to keep price pressures from building and thereby keep inflation itself low and stable. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | So, as I mentioned, we’re going to be looking at all of those things: activity, labor market, inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | These downside risks were seen as essentially counterbalanced by the upside risk that inflation could increase more than expected in an economy that was projected to move further above its longer-run potential. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In the modal outlook, monetary policy tightening to temper demand, in combination with improvements in supply, is expected to reduce demand–supply imbalances and reduce inflation over time.10 The real yield curve is now in solidly positive territory at all | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | A couple of participants thought it premature to focus on this latter eventuality, observing that the purchase program had been effective and that more time was needed to assess the outlook for the labor market and inflation; moreover, international comparisons suggested that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet retained ample capacity relative to the scale of the U. S. economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | in turn, larger expected productivity advances and a lower cost of equity capital provided a further stimulus to investment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | But, in the interim, the absence of increasing inflation pressures meant that the Federal Reserve did not need to tighten to bring demand back in line with the potential as soon as it otherwise might have needed to. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Tax rebates, declining energy prices, and widespread discounting of retail prices were cited as positive factors in support of consumer spending on a wide range of goods and services. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In terms of the performance of inflation and unemployment, the experience of the past few years has not been unlike a mirror image of the 1970s. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Net exports subtracted more than 1/2 percentage point from GDP growth in both 2014 and 2015, while falling non-oil import prices likely subtracted 1/4 percentage point from the annual rate of core inflation.10 Finally, the trajectory of federal government debt relative to GDP and views regarding the debt's sustainability can also influence the effects of fiscal policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A number of participants noted that continued high unemployment, particularly with large numbers of workers suffering very long spells of unemployment, would lead to an erosion of workers' skills that would have adverse consequences for those workers and for the economy's potential level of output in the longer term. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Instead, I would like to address a separate but not unrelated topic, the interaction of bank supervision and regulation with monetary policy, and how supervision and regulation might work to make monetary policy implementation more effective in the current environment, particularly as it relates to a bank's demand for reserves.2 But first, let me start with a brief take on the current economic outlook. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | With a series of inflationary supply shocks, it is especially important to guard against the risk that households and businesses could start to expect inflation to remain above 2 percent in the longer run, which would make it much more challenging to bring inflation back down to our target. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Private investors would have to hold more longer-term securities as the Federal Reserve's holdings ran off, making longer-term interest rates somewhat higher than they would be otherwise. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | They would account for the effects of higher energy prices on the real disposable income and spending demands of the household sector. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | For a variety of reasons, oil prices already had risen appreciably since the start of the year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic conditions, members focused on the disparate forces that continued to shape trends in economic activity, notably the persist- ence of considerable strength in private domestic spending and the damping influences stemming from foreign economic developments. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Rather than rely on Fed watchers employed by primary dealers to read the tea leaves of our daily interventions, we inform everyone, openly, and take responsibility for the level of short-term interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | It is an honor to be here with Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, who pioneered the original Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy in 2012. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | But again, our basic forecast is one which is basically, as was pointed out earlier by Mr. Hilsenrath, a moderately optimistic forecast, where growth picks up as we pass through this period of fiscal restraint | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | By contrast, economic activity in China and other developing countries showed greater buoyancy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | While the current episode has not yet concluded, it appears that, responding vigorously in a relatively flexible economy to the aftermath of bubbles, as traumatic as that may be, is less inhibiting to long-term growth than chronic high-inflation monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | And one reason for that is that long-term interest rates generally embody two factors. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In 2019, sluggish growth abroad and global developments weighed on investment, exports, and manufacturing in the United States, although there are some indications that headwinds to global growth may be beginning to abate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | But to the extent that continues to be the case, that should make it easier to restore price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In Japan, private consumption rebounded strongly, and private investment and net exports continued to boost growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | However, we have also found that excluding volatile food and energy prices generally gives a better sense of underlying inflation pressures that are likely to persist and dominate total inflation over time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | If labor demand cools, will separations increase and shift the curve outward, increasing unemployment further? | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Nonetheless, on balance, most members currently considered the upside risks to inflation to be a bit less pressing than those on the downside for the next few quarters. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Since inflation is unacceptably high, it doesn't make sense to have the nominal federal funds rate below near-term inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | That means that we can run at low levels of unemployment and have a historically good—in some dimensions—labor market without having to worry about inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The increase in upside risks to domestic demand and the diminution of foreign risks together suggest that risks to the outlook are more balanced today than they had been for the preceding two years. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The shock that the—from the pandemic was unprecedented both in its nature and in its size and in the amount of unemployment that it created and in the shock to economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | With inflation much higher than the federal funds rate, the real federal funds rate is negative, even after our rate increases this year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Higher inflation expectations would in turn lead workers to bargain for commensurate raises in nominal wages to preserve the real value of their earnings. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In particular, a surprise tightening of policy raises the risk premium, lowering current stock prices, and a surprise easing lowers the risk premium, raising current stock prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | You know, we’re, we’re—inflation measures are always going to be a bit volatile. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Indeed, consumer expenditures appeared to have been expanding moderately over the previous few months, buoyed by increases in employment, personal income, and household wealth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | I will focus my remarks today on the use of explicit forward guidance as a tool for monetary policy.1 Before I start, let me briefly discuss near-term monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Finally, while my assessment of maximum employment incorporates a wide range of indicators to assess the state of the labor market—including indicators of labor compensation, productivity, and price-cost markups—the employment data I look at, such as the Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Indicators, are historically highly correlated with the unemployment rate.8 My expectation today is that the labor market by the end of 2022 will have reached my assessment of maximum employment if the unemployment rate has declined by then to the SEP median of modal projections of 3.8 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Indeed, how will we measure inflation, and the associated financial market implications, in the twenty-first century when our data--using current techniques--could become increasingly less adequate to trace price trends over time? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Economic DevelopmentsReal economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Participants expected economic activity to contract sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008 and in early 2009. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Members noted that most broad measures of inflation moved together over extended periods of time, but they did not always do so over short intervals. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | By 2009, the forecasts for both the headline and core PCE price indexes showed inflation receding from its 2008 level, in line with the previous forecasts. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As a further step in enhancing the clarity of our communications, the Committee recently decided to begin publishing information about participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy—that is, the path of policy that each participant judges as most likely to foster mandate-consistent outcomes for employment and inflation if the economy evolves as expected. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Sub-par expansion over the next few quarters was expected to foster an appreciable further easing of pressures on resources and some moderation in core consumer price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | But a longer-term trend--slow productivity growth--helps explain why we don't think dramatic interest rate increases are required to move our federal funds rate target back to neutral. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Headline stock price indexes in the AFEs generally ended the period higher, whereas bank stocks in Europe declined. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In this regard the risks of rising inflation could not be dismissed, and while those risks appeared to be quite limited for the nearer term, excessive monetary stimulus had to be avoided to avert rising inflation expectations and added inflation pressures over time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, some participants noted that the recent rise in the prices of oil and other commodities, as well as increases in import prices stemming from the decline in the foreign exchange value of the dollar, could boost inflation pressures. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The delays often reflected concerns about the putative costs and risks of these policies, such as stoking high inflation and impairing market functioning. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | This approach adds to what we have learned from earlier papers that have examined the performance of unconventional policy tools with respect to individual components of financial conditions—most notably, long-term sovereign yields, but also mortgage rates, equities, exchange rates, and corporate debt spreads.3 Empirically assessing the question in the report is not only important, but also challenging, as the report readily acknowledges. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The demand for commercial paper declined as prime money market mutual funds experienced large net outflows after the net asset value of one such fund fell below $1 per share. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Scholars disagree somewhat about the extent to which policymakers of the time tried actively to take advantage of this supposed tradeoff, but these ideas likely provided part of the intellectual rationale that made the authorities willing to allow inflation to rise throughout the 1960s and in the early 1970s. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The Committee directs the Desk to purchase GSE debt, GSE-guaranteed MBS, and longer-term Treasury securities during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Williamson cited Hayek's 1945 paper, along with Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations from the eighteenth century, as forming the core of a "venerated tradition in economics" of studying the notion of "spontaneous order" arising from a freely operating market system.9 How does Hayek's case for the price system fit in alongside the other work that Williamson mentioned? | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Nonfarm payroll employment rose substantially further in October. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | On the foreign trade side of the economy, an anticipated firming of economic conditions abroad would provide impetus to real net exports, At the same time, however, imports were expected to rise appreciably in response to the expansion of domestic economic activity and the appreciation of the dollar, and on balance the external sector probably would not be boosting real GDP. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The ebbing of stimulus from last year's tax cuts also could tend to slow growth in consumer spending. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The latter could well be augmented by sharply rising medical costs and by attempts to protect the purchasing power of wages from the erosion caused by the rise in energy prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Implications for Monetary Policy In summary, there appears to be some possibility that the recent trend toward disinflation will continue, primarily because of the potentially large amount of economic slack in the system. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In light of asset market developments over the intermeeting period, which in large part appeared to reflect heightened expectations among investors that the Federal Reserve would undertake additional purchases of longer-term securities, the November forecast was conditioned on lower long-term interest rates, higher stock prices, and a lower foreign exchange value of the dollar than was the staff's previous forecast. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Some participants suggested that shifts of funds from abroad into U. S. Treasury securities may have put downward pressure on term premiums; the shifts, in turn, may have reflected in part a reaction to declines in foreign sovereign yields in response to actual and anticipated monetary policy actions abroad. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | An easing of supply constraints was expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Consistent with the view that recent lower inflation readings could be temporary, a number of participants mentioned the trimmed mean measure of PCE price inflation, produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which removes the influence of unusually large changes in the prices of individual items in either direction; these participants observed that the trimmed mean measure had been stable at or close to 2 percent over recent months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And as reserves reach durably ample levels, we intend to slow the pace of purchases such that our balance sheet grows in line with trend demand for our liabilities. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The real federal funds rate probably was not greatly out of line with its appropriate level, and the rise in longer-term interest rates and the exchange rate meant that financial conditions were now exerting more restraint than earlier this year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Participants agreed that the longer-run normal federal funds rate was likely lower than in the past, in part because of secular forces that had put downward pressure on real interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained stable, although market-based measures of inflation compensation over the next five years, as well as over the five-year period beginning five years ahead, moved down further over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In their discussion of the balance-of-risks sentence in the press statement to be issued shortly after this meeting, all the members agreed that the latter should continue to express, as it had for every meeting earlier this year, their belief that the risks remained weighted toward rising inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Some participants noted that additional asset purchases could be used to provide more accommodation by lowering longer-term interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | For inflation, we can use the 12-month change in core PCE prices, a measure of the current underlying rate of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Between the end of July and the FOMC's September meeting, we will get two employment and CPI reports with data for July and August. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And that, I think, does raise, raise the risk that high inflation will be more persistent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | For the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England, they find heterogeneous views among voters, but no systematic differences based on whether the MPC member is an insider--that is part of the hierarchy at the Bank--or an outsider appointed for a short term just to the MPC; whether the person comes from an academic background; or whether that person has worked at the Treasury. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The staff also reduced slightly its forecast of growth next year but continued to anticipate a moderate strengthening of the expansion in 2011 as well as a further pickup in economic growth in 2012. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | But—so I would just say that our—that there are many things that go in, as you know, to, to setting asset prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | But in terms of just targeting growth, you know, I think—I actually think our dual mandate works very well, which is maximum employment and stable prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | remained well below their levels at the beginning of the year, and that weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices had been holding down consumer price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Beyond 2017, the forecast for real GDP growth was little revised. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | However, with monetary policy assumed to remain highly accommodative, the staff continued to anticipate that real GDP growth would outpace that of potential over much of this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically low levels. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | And similar, sometimes even sharper, trajectories of house prices have been witnessed in some economies in which the central banks said they were paying more attention to asset prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The staff also reduced slightly its forecast of growth next year | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Some members commented, however, that the relationship between the output gap and inflation was quite loose and that the outlook for productivity remained uncertain. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Japan enjoyed effective price stability through most of the 1980s. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
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