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2	In April, prices of core goods and services--that is, consumer prices excluding food and energy--were unchanged for a second month.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed, on balance.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	When considering the risks to the labor market, these risks must be viewed in the context of its current strength and with the understanding that our primary challenge is to get inflation under control.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	not to target asset prices (or exchange rates).	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	We want to see lower unemployment.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	This direction of causality may obscure the negative relationship, running from higher inflation to lower growth, presumed to hold in the longer term.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	But in the shorter run, we must also develop strategies to overcome the education deficiencies of all too many of our young people, and to renew the skills of workers who have not kept up with the changing demands of the workplace.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Developments in foreign trade were moderating demands on domestic resources	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Perhaps because those asset prices are important to spending, key macroeconomic indicators, such as the unemployment rate, exhibit a similar pattern.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	However, other participants noted that the continued subdued trend in wages was evidence of an absence of upward pressure on inflation from the current level of resource utilization.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Significant cost cutting by firms was thought to have led to a sizable increase in productivity growth in the first half of the year; sustained outsized gains in productivity could further damp hiring.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Balance Sheet Policies and Reserve Demand Taking stock, I note that one approach to the constraints on policy imposed by the current low level of interest rates is to make what were previously unconventional toolsâ€”balance sheet policies and forward guidanceâ€”as conventional as possible.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The shifting balance of domestic demand and potential supply in each country means that policies affecting domestic demand will need to be re-calibrated to preserve price stability and keep economies operating at high levels of reserve utilization.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Profit margins have been running a little higher this year than last, aided importantly by strong growth in labor productivity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	For the present, however, inflation remained subdued, and it was likely to remain relatively low for some time in light of the weakness in commodity and other import prices and the tendency for low current inflation to hold down expected price increases.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The growth of subprime mortgage lending is one indication of the extent to which access to credit has increased for all households, including those with lower incomes.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	If we think that the potential growth rate of the economy is somewhere between, somewhere around 1.75 percent, 2.8 percent is strong economic growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Longer-term inflation expectations have moved much less than actual inflation or near-term expectations, suggesting that households, businesses, and market participants also believe that current high inflation readings are likely to prove transitory and that, in any case, the Fed will keep inflation close to our 2 percent objective over time.12 5.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	One measure of the decline in recent years of the marginal cost of additions to oil availability is the downdrift in the prices of the most distant contracts for future delivery of Light Sweet crude oil.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Some members expressed concern about the longer-run prospects for large federal deficits and their implications for the future performance of the economy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In the residential real estate sector, home sales and construction had increased from very low levels, and house prices appeared to be stabilizing.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Partly because of high demand for Treasury securities, the overnight repo rate for Treasury general collateral was near zero for much of the period, and failures to deliver Treasury securities reached record highs.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	however, for the two months combined, the deficit was considerably wider than its average rate for the second quarter.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Partly because of high demand for Treasury securities, the overnight repo rate for Treasury general collateral was near zero for much of the period, and failures to deliver Treasury securities reached record highs.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Moreover, most members saw substantial downside risks to the economic outlook and judged that a rate reduction at this meeting would provide valuable additional insurance against an unexpectedly severe weakening in economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	success was fairly uniform across both the inflation-targeting and nontargeting countries.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	However, given the good pace of economic expansion since then, it would stretch credulity to believe that capacity growth has accelerated at a sufficient pace to produce a large degree of slack at this moment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	These base effects will contribute about 1 percentage point to headline inflation and about 0.7 percentage point to core inflation in April and May.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	First, insofar as recent productivity growth is concerned, I have a serious question about the quality of the data that we employ to measure output in today's economy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	It would consist of inflation plus—plus productivity growth.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	But in our new century, the simple notion of price has turned decidedly ambiguous.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The average rate of growth of CRE loans at banks continued to be strong in October and November.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Generally speaking, the growth of profits and the related buildup of cash have been broadly distributed across industries.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Some saw a risk that inflationary pressures might develop more rapidly than currently anticipated as resource utilization tightened,	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In addition, the Survey of Terms of Business Lending conducted in the first week of November showed that interest rates on C&I loans were generally little changed while spreads remained extremely wide.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The ultimate responsibility for price stability rests with the Federal Reserve.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Housing activity was generally holding up well across the country as the effects of appreciably reduced mortgage interest rates apparently compensated for the negative effects of declining financial wealth on the demand for housing.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Monetary Policy Spillovers Flow in Both Directions There is a vast literature that documents the existence of international spillovers from U.S. monetary policy, especially to emerging markets (EMs).	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	We're looking at wages and we're looking at ultimately inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	How long the favorable factors that continued to stimulate substantial growth in consumer expenditures would persist was uncertain, notably with regard to the outlook for stock market prices and their effects on consumer resources and willingness to spend.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, Committee members generally agreed that their overall assessments of the economic outlook were little changed since their previous meeting.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Accordingly, considerable caution needed to be exercised in assessing the outlook for productivity and in relying on projections of the economy and prices, which necessarily embodied judgments about this outlook, in making monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Shortly after 9 a.m. each morning, the Desk staff and staff members at the Board of Governors confer over the phone to discuss their respective estimates of the day's demand for balances as well as to consider factors that may affect supply.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Consumer sentiment remains solid, and the employment picture is positive.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The GDP (in real terms, after inflation) has been growing continuously for eight years and this long expansion, instead of petering out, has accelerated in the last couple of years.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In the residential real estate sector, home sales and construction had increased from very low levels, and house prices appeared to be stabilizing.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The members expected price pressures to remain relatively contained over the next several quarters in the context of what they anticipated would be only a gradual reduction of the excess capacity in labor and product markets as the recovery progressed.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	When, when you get to—in, in the forecast, all of that, you know, supply and demand sides of the economy adapt.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	These arguments imply that slack in labor markets remains considerable and therefore that a reduction in the unemployment rate toward its longer-run normal level would not have much effect on inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In addition, increases in oil prices were expected to pass through to consumer energy prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Headline stock price indexes in the AFEs generally ended the period higher, whereas bank stocks in Europe declined.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	For example, changes in U.S. short-term interest rates seem to exert a substantial influence on euro area bond yields (Ehrmann, Fratzscher, and Rigobon, 2005	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	And no, we’re not—we, we have not at all changed our view, and I haven’t changed my view that inflation running above 2 percent, moderately above 2 percent, is a desirable thing.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	However, the deficit was up appreciably from its average for the first quarter, with the value of imports increasing substantially more than the value of exports.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Indeed, given the externalities involved, it seems plausible that a monopoly central bank that issued fiat money would not respond optimally to crises (it would charge too much for liquidity) or to cyclical variations (it would be maximizing the present discounted value of its seigniorage income rather than minimizing some weighted sum of discounted inflation and output losses).	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	They noted that economic activity and employment had continued to recover	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	However, indicators of economic activity in Japan and Brazil remained weak.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	with a healthy job market, rising incomes, and upbeat consumer confidence, the fundamentals supporting household spending are solid.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	increases in expected inflation will thus tend to promote greater actual inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	They noted that economic activity and employment had continued to recover but remained well below their levels at the beginning of the year, and that weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices had been holding down consumer price inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Labor market conditions had improved further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate; taken as a whole, labor market indicators suggested that the underutilization of labor resources was continuing to diminish.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Moreover, not all measures of core inflation had accelerated	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	As a result, as in the January forecast, real GDP was expected to rise at a moderate pace over 2011 and 2012, supported by accommodative monetary policy, increasing credit availability, and greater household and business confidence.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Rather than rely on Fed watchers employed by primary dealers to read the tea leaves of our daily interventions, we inform everyone, openly, and take responsibility for the level of short-term interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Among other questions that could be addressed would be how policy actions (as opposed to inflation outcomes) influence expectations and how sensitive Federal Reserve credibility is to short-run departures from low inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The implication is that monetary policy is already well positioned to slow the expansion.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	So it’s a double whammy coming from higher gasoline prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The weakness in labor market conditions remained an important concern to meeting participants, with unemployment expected to remain elevated for some time.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	However, those concerns generally were seen as outweighed by the benefit of avoiding tying the Committee's decision too closely to the unemployment rate alone,	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In light of these uncertainties as well as continued evidence of muted inflation pressures, participants generally agreed that a patient approach to determining future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate remained appropriate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	But dividing that nominal value change into components representing changes in real quantity versus price requires that one define a unit of output that is to remain constant in all transactions over time.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	So you’re talking about the inflation target, basically.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In Japan, private consumption rebounded strongly, and private investment and net exports continued to boost growth.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Business contacts in a few Districts reported that they had begun to have some more ability to raise prices to cover higher input costs.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	But there’s also a role for monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Employment had risen a little,	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	A few participants also noted that uncertainty about the extent of resource slack in the economy was considerable and that it was quite possible that the economy could soon be operating close to potential, particularly if labor force participation rates did not turn up much while employment continued to register gains.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	How long the favorable factors that continued to stimulate substantial growth in consumer expenditures would persist was uncertain, notably with regard to the outlook for stock market prices and their effects on consumer resources and willingness to spend.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Employment continued to expand unevenly,	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	What about the effects of a productivity shock on inflation?	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The second requirement contributes to the first and also to smoothing fluctuations in output around full employment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	One measure of the decline in recent years of the marginal cost of additions to oil availability is the downdrift in the prices of the most distant contracts for future delivery of Light Sweet crude oil.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In both of the examples I have just discussed, the medium-frequency evolution of market-based, survey-based, and model-based estimates of r* and expected inflation have, over time, tended to move broadly together.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Members agreed that the Federal Reserve was committed to using its full range of tools to support the U. S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum-employment and price-stability goals.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	This outcome would be entirely consistent with the new framework we adopted in August 2020 and began to implement at our September 2020 FOMC meeting.3 In our new framework, we aim for inflation outcomes that keep inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Two members preferred to leave the target range at 1 to 1-1/4 percent, suggesting that the Committee should wait to raise the target range until inflation moves up closer to 2 percent on a sustained basis or inflation expectations increase.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The pace of real GDP growth was forecast to be faster over the second half of this year than in the first half, primarily reflecting a modest increase in the rate of growth of private domestic final purchases and a sizable turnaround in inventory investment.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	with domestic spending strong, members were becoming more concerned that those developments might not exert enough restraint on aggregate demand to slow the expansion to a sustainable pace in line with the growth of the economy's potential.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	So, if we maintain a highly accommodative monetary policy for a very long time from here and the economy performs as we expect—namely, it’s strong and the risks that are out there don’t materialize—my concern will be that we will have much more tightening in labor markets than you see in these projections.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The forecast for headline inflation was in the same range as that for core inflation in 2008 and 2009, reflecting expectations that energy prices would level off and then turn down and that increases in food prices would slow to a pace more in line with core inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	We should first recognize that the form of the U.S. government is different than that of most inflation-targeting countries.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Persistent inflation shortfalls carry the risk that longer-term inflation expectations become anchored below the stated inflation goal.13 In part because of that concern, some economists have advocated "makeup" strategies under which policymakers seek to undo past inflation deviations from target.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Moreover, to the extent that more-rapid growth of productivity shows through to faster gains in nominal wages, there will be fewer instances in which nominal wages will be pressured to fall.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In the past few years, the effect on the dollar of increased expectations about divergence between U.S. and foreign interest rates has been especially strong.9 The nearly 20 percent increase in the dollar over 2014 and 2015 coincided with falling real exports and import prices in the United States.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The members generally agreed that, if necessary, their concerns about rising inflation could be addressed at the meeting in early February.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	His conclusion is that only by far-reaching decentralization in a market system with competition and free price-fixing is it possible to make full use of knowledge and information.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Spreads on risky private-sector debt reached very low levels, and damaging spillovers to the nonfinancial sector occurred in the form of unduly high real estate prices and excessive leverage by borrowers in the housing market.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	These participants stated that, in such circumstances, a major challenge facing policymakers—especially in the presence of the effective lower bound on the federal funds rate—was to maintain a policy stance sufficiently accommodative to keep average inflation at 2 percent and thereby bolster the credibility of the Committee's new policy framework, facilitating the achievement of both maximum employment and price stability.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	This difficulty of forecasting inflation has important implications, as we shall see.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	There were more reports that rising wages and benefits and increasing costs of nonlabor inputs could no longer be fully offset by improvements in productivity, and more business firms appeared to be attempting or considering increases in their selling prices to maintain or improve their profit margins.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.

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