Split (2)

train · 4.81k rows

label int64 0 2	premise stringlengths 13 1.25k	hypothesis stringclasses 3 values
0	Prominent among these risks were a possible intensification of strains in the euro zone, with potential spillovers to U. S. financial markets and institutions and thus to the broader U. S. economy; a larger-than-expected U. S. fiscal tightening; and the possibility of a further slowdown in global economic growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In essence, monetary credibility helps the central bank do its job, by inducing private sector participants also to take actions that help achieve the central bank's low inflation objective.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In the absence of legislation, going appreciably further in the direction of prioritizing price stability, as would be implied by a numerical target that was expected to be achieved most of the time, would be potentially damaging to the democratic balance and would risk a backlash.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	These productivity gains result from many forces, including business investment that has increased the amount and quality of capital available to the workforce, business process innovations, and the growth of innovative, research-intensive industries such as information technology and biotechnology.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Indeed, stock prices did not collapse in 1929 but only began to plummet when the depth of the general economic decline became apparent.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	European equity prices were also lower over the period.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Although the rate of pass-through from the higher prices of energy and other commodities to core consumer price inflation appears to have remained relatively low, the cumulative increases in energy and commodity prices have been large enough that they could account for some of the recent pickup in core inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Some members nonetheless referred to indications of increasing expenditures for various categories of high-tech equipment and software, and they noted that impetus to demand from a positive outcome in the war against Iraq should have a favorable effect on business capital spending, especially if it were accompanied by a rally in the stock market.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	This role is largely a reflection of the New York Fed's responsibility for implementing monetary policy decisions through its open market desk operations.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	the anticipated decline in the unemployment rate was somewhat slower than in the previous projection.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Domestic demand growth has slumped in many foreign economies because of varying combinations of an increase in saving rates and a decline in investment.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Participants generally agreed that the drag on U. S. economic activity from the appreciation of the dollar since the summer of 2014 and the slowdown in foreign economic growth, particularly in emerging market economies, was likely to continue to depress U. S. net exports for some time.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	To abstract from the potential effects of cyclical factors on the yield curve, consider the pattern of forward rates many years into the future, at which point the effects of current cyclical shocks would be expected to no longer be important.2 Such forward rates reflect not only market expectations of future short-term interest rates	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	I will then discuss the prospects for adjusting monetary policy in the manner needed to sustain a strong job market while maintaining low and stable inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	They generally judged that risks to the growth outlook, including strains in global financial markets, were significant and tilted to the downside; moreover, slow growth left the recovery more vulnerable to negative shocks.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Wage inflation has been running at 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	That apparently has not made its way into prices yet,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	I’m just saying, that, that is what fiscal policy can do that, really, monetary policy can’t do—is, is invest in the future productive capacity of the economy, raise potential growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	the effect of prior changes in the foreign exchange value of the dollar on core consumer prices had apparently been limited.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Real yields increased more than their nominal counterparts, while inflation compensation implied by Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities declined.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The central tendency of the unemployment rate projections is slightly lower than in the March projections and now stands at 6.0 to 6.1 percent at the end of this year.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Presumably even normal amortized equity that did not come from higher home prices was extracted in this manner.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	About the same time, Board staff developed the so-called P* (P-star) model, based on M2, which used the quantity theory of money and estimates of long-run potential output and velocity (the ratio of nominal income to money) to predict long-run inflation trends.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In the emerging market economies (EMEs), a pickup in growth in China in the second quarter, supported by policy stimulus, appeared to be more than offset by slower growth in Latin America.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	By contrast, raising rates too slowly would raise the risk that monetary policy would need to tighten abruptly down the road, which could jeopardize the economic expansion.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Although the Fed hasn't started raising rates or reducing the balance sheet, interest rates have moved up notably.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In the past few years, the effect on the dollar of increased expectations about divergence between U.S. and foreign interest rates has been especially strong.9 The nearly 20 percent increase in the dollar over 2014 and 2015 coincided with falling real exports and import prices in the United States.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The price of a ton of cold rolled steel sheet, or a linear yard of cotton broad-woven fabrics, could be reasonably compared over a period of years.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The complementarity of price stability with the other goals of monetary policy is now the consensus view among economists and central bankers.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Balance Sheet Policies and Reserve Demand Taking stock, I note that one approach to the constraints on policy imposed by the current low level of interest rates is to make what were previously unconventional toolsâ€”balance sheet policies and forward guidanceâ€”as conventional as possible.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	As the factors restraining economic growth are projected to fade further over time, the median rate rises to 3 percent by the end of 2018, close to its longer-run normal level.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	With inventories lower, firms were beginning to raise production to meet at least a portion of increased demand, and this adjustment was expected to make an important contribution to economic recovery in the fourth quarter of the year and, to a lesser extent, in 2010 as well.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	With the restraint from fiscal policy assumed to increase next year, the staff projected that increases in real GDP would not significantly exceed the growth rate of potential output in 2013.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Relative to the average episode, commercial real estate prices neither fell much during the recession nor rose a lot during the expansion.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	If the prices are wrong -- built on the base on an incorrect view of the economy or Federal Reserve intentions -- we will prove them wrong and provide an anchor for the market to adjust to.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Inflation averaging doesn't define how much above 2 percent is moderate and how long some value of elevated inflation should be tolerated.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	But because the United States has run persistent and sizable primary trade deficits since 1990, the net external debt is now 25 percent of GDP and rising sharply.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In the housing sector, demand had continued to display appreciable strength in recent months in association with relatively moderate mortgage rates and very positive consumer assessments of homebuying conditions.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	They also agreed that the inflation situation seemed to have improved slightly and judged that it was no longer appropriate to indicate that a sustained moderation in inflation pressures had yet to be shown.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The productivity boom after the Civil War resulted from a variety of technological advances, including the expansion of and improvements in the use of steam power, railroad transportation, and communication by telegraph.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Staff Economic Outlook In the economic forecast prepared by the staff for the March FOMC meeting, real GDP growth was revised down somewhat in the near term, largely reflecting the federal spending sequestration that went into effect on March 1 and the resulting drag from reduced government purchases.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	While liquid deposits continued to grow slowly, heightened demand for safety and liquidity appeared to boost holdings of retail money market mutual funds.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services narrowed somewhat in August from a high rate in July; however, for the two months combined, the deficit was considerably wider than its average rate for the second quarter.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Nonetheless, the risks to the forecast for real GDP growth were viewed as tilted a little to the downside, especially because the economy was not well positioned to withstand adverse shocks while the target for the federal funds rate was at its effective lower bound.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Yields on nominal Treasury coupon securities declined over the intermeeting period while yields on inflation-indexed Treasury securities were roughly unchanged, which left inflation compensation noticeably lower.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The pickup in demand had yet to materially narrow currently wide margins of idle labor and other resources, and these margins along with the uncertainties that still surrounded current forecasts of robust economic growth suggested that an accommodative monetary policy might remain desirable for a considerable period of time.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	At the same time, an acceleration in productivity also appears to have a direct disinflationary effect.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	It is again useful to compare estimates of expected inflation derived from breakeven inflation data with estimates of expected inflation obtained from surveysâ€”for example, the expected inflation over the next 5 to 10 years from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Total nonfarm payroll employment was reported to have decreased in September, consistent with a substantial increase in the number of people who reported themselves as being absent from work due to bad weather and with payroll declines in the hurricane-affected states of Texas and Florida.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	When interest rates increase, prices will undoubtedly adjust to some extent--in some cases simply by rising less rapidly than they would otherwise--and debt-service obligations will move up.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Indeed, few long-term inflation forecasts in any country currently exceed 5 percent,	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	And it’s natural that if it can be employed that, just as monetary policy is doing a lot to try to June 15, 2016 stimulate growth, that fiscal policy should play a role.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The risks to the forecast for real GDP growth and inflation were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting recent financial developments and concerns about the foreign economic outlook, as well as the staff's assessment that neither monetary policy nor fiscal policy appeared well positioned to help the economy withstand adverse shocks.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Growth in household spending moderated toward the end of last year, but with a healthy job market, rising incomes, and upbeat consumer confidence, the fundamentals supporting household spending are solid.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Several participants observed that the trimmed mean measure of PCE price inflation constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas had stayed near 2 percent recently, underscoring the view that the recent low readings on inflation will prove transitory.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	By the same token, the effect of the interest rate channel on overall economic activity may be diminished by greater trade integration as changes in domestic demand are offset by induced changes in imports.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	These policy moves would therefore prevent the far greater economic pain associated with entrenched high inflation, including the even tighter policy and more severe restraint on economic activity that would then be needed to restore price stability.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Mortgage rates, corporate bond rates, and other yields and asset prices moved in sympathy, with important effects on the cost of borrowing and hence, presumably, on aggregate demand.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In addition, the Survey of Terms of Business Lending conducted in the first week of November showed that interest rates on C&I loans were generally little changed while spreads remained extremely wide.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The staff still expected that the pace of economic activity through 2011 would be sufficient to reduce the existing margins of economic slack,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Conditions in the commercial paper (CP) market improved over the intermeeting period, likely reflecting recent measures taken in support of this market, greater demand from institutional investors, and the passing of year-end.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	But if the economy instead began to overheat, threatening to push inflation to an undesirably high level, the FOMC would have ample scope to respond through tighter monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The considerable monetary ease already in place, the prospect of significantly more fiscal stimulus, the continuing strong gains in structural productivity, and the anticipated improvement in business confidence would provide significant impetus to spending.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	So we view maximum employment as the maximum sustainable level of employment, meaning it’s not so much that it will cause the economy to overheat.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Less uncertainty about future inflation could lower the risk premiums on nominal Treasury bonds, lowering the risk-free interest rate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	He thought future developments were equally likely to warrant an action in either direction, and he did not think the Committee should take a step that probably would cause expectations of further easing to become embedded in market interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Inflation in 1996, measured by the chain price index for GDP or the core CPI, was the lowest in 30 years.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Over the long run, real labor compensation tends to track labor productivity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In particular, we may need additional public communications about the conditions that constitute substantial further progress since December toward our broad and inclusive definition of maximum employment.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In this environment, America's prospects for economic growth will greatly depend on our capacity to develop and to apply new technology--a quest that inevitably will entail some risk-taking.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Participants anticipated that inflation would continue to gradually rise as resource utilization tightened further and as wage pressures became more apparent; several expected that declines in the foreign exchange value of the dollar in recent months would also likely help return inflation to 2 percent over the medium term.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In addition, the May 1, 2019 trimmed mean measures of inflation did not go down as much.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	There’s a lot more demand for risk sharing, for liquidity services, and so on.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	also by views about how fiscal policy might adjust to monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Following the GFC, it took more than eight years for employment and inflation to return to similar mandate-consistent levels.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The members also agreed on the desirability of retaining the assessment that the risks with regard to the outlook for economic growth were balanced.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The lagged effects of the earlier rise in the foreign exchange value of the dollar were expected to place continuing, though diminishing, restraint on the demand for U. S. exports for some period ahead and to lead to further substitution of imports for domestic products.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Data received over the intermeeting period reinforced earlier indications that real GDP growth had turned up after having been slow in the first quarter of this year.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importanceâ€”and the challengeâ€”of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Participants marked up their inflation projections, as they assessed that supply constraints in product and labor markets were larger and likely to be longer lasting than previously anticipated.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In contrast, economic activity declined in Japan during the third quarter after a surge in the first half of the year.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In several Districts, reports from business contacts or evidence from surveys pointed to some difficulty in finding qualified workers; in some cases, labor shortages were making it hard to fill customer demand or expand business.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In our FOMC statements, we have indicated we expect to maintain the target range at this level until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Therefore, even in the case of personal computers, where we have made such great strides in measuring quality changes, I suspect that important phenomena still may not be adequately captured by our published price indexes.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The release this year and last of mortgage price data gathered under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) has highlighted a different, but potentially related, concern about access to credit on equal terms.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In the emerging market economies (EMEs), a pickup in growth in China in the second quarter, supported by policy stimulus, appeared to be more than offset by slower growth in Latin America.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	House price appreciation appeared to have slowed from the elevated rates seen over the past summer.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Since the previous FOMC meeting, spreads on municipal bonds narrowed substantially, on net, moving near levels observed for several years before the pandemic, as investor demand exhibited some recovery over much of the period from earlier weak levels.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	To summarize these international data, one might say that something brought inflation down in the 1980s and 1990s, but success was fairly uniform across both the inflation-targeting and nontargeting countries.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	So let me talk about the coronavirus specifically, and then I’ll turn more to global growth more generally.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Participants agreed that the labor market had remained strong over the intermeeting period and that economic activity had risen at a moderate rate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	"4 While this new framework represents a robust evolution in our monetary policy strategy, this strategy is in service to the dual-mandate goals of monetary policy assigned to the Federal Reserve by the Congressâ€”maximum employment and price stabilityâ€”which remain unchanged.5 Concluding Remarks While economic recovery since the spring collapse has been robust, let us not forget that full economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession has a long way to go.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	For example, the shift in manufacturing production from artisanal shops in the mid-1800s to factories after the Civil War led to a disproportionate increase in the demand for unskilled labor to operate the new machines.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	these participants noted the risk that such cautious attitudes toward hiring could slow the pace at which the unemployment rate normalized.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Case studies of individual industries show that, in some cases, the planning for technological modernization has not always been adequate, with the result that some purchases of high-tech equipment and software have not added much to productivity or profits.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	I look forward to my conversation with Steve Liesman and to your questions, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Over this period, inflation remained above most definitions of price stability, and the Federal Reserve was not actively seeking to reduce it.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Although many participants remained concerned about downside risks attending the outlook for inflation, a majority of participants saw the risks to the outlook for inflation as balanced.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	They also noted that even with this additional firming the risks were still weighted mainly in the direction of rising inflationary pressures.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.

Subsets and Splits

No community queries yet

The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.