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0 | As you said, falling oil prices pull down inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Real GDP growth was expected to step down in 2022 and 2023 but still outpace that of potential over this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically low levels, as monetary policy was assumed to remain highly accommodative. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | I’m just saying, that, that is what fiscal policy can do that, really, monetary policy can’t do—is, is invest in the future productive capacity of the economy, raise potential growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Committee also noted in March that although output had continued to expand at a solid pace, new hiring had lagged, and increases in core consumer prices were muted and expected to remain low. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This was also an era when the principal mortgage lenders, savings and loans, were sometimes constrained from satisfying mortgage demands by binding Regulation Q ceilings that eroded their deposit base when interest rates rose. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Many of our critics tend to focus only on the inflation aspect of our mandate and ignore the employment leg of our mandate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The bulk of the variation comes from what finance academics call "changes in discount rates," which is a fancy way of saying the non-fundamental stuff that we don't understand very well--and which can include changes in either investor sentiment or risk aversion, price movements due to forced selling by either levered investors or convexity hedgers, and a variety of other effects that fall under the broad heading of internal market dynamics. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Consumer credit jumped in May and remained strong in June, reflecting a rebound in credit card balances and continued robust growth in auto loans. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Although the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, wages are rising broadly in line with productivity growth and underlying inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The reserve conditions contemplated at this meeting were expected to be consistent with some moderation in the growth of M2 and M3 over coming months. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Our goal of price stability was achieved by most analysts' definition by mid-2003. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | But again, our basic forecast is one which is basically, as was pointed out earlier by Mr. Hilsenrath, a moderately optimistic forecast, where growth picks up as we pass through this period of fiscal restraint | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Although the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand would help limit inflation pressures over time, the Committee judged that some inflation risks remained. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | What I have elsewhere referred to as "currency competition" may be a driving force behind these changes in inflation outcomes and expectations and may be reflected in low nominal long-term interest rates and the flattening of yield curves.5 I’d like to briefly review what I mean by currency competition. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The staff interpreted the increases in prices of energy and nonmarket services that recently boosted consumer price inflation as largely transitory. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Several participants commented that the factors that had contributed to low inflation during the previous expansion could again exert more downward pressure on inflation than expected. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The dominant force of late appears to have been a significant increase in the structural rate of productivity growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | the anticipated decline in the unemployment rate was somewhat slower than in the previous projection. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Even before the recent unfortunate developments in the Middle East, demand to augment buffer stocks surged, which has helped to keep prices high. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Changes in the deficit resulting from changes in economic conditions, health prices, demographics, and other technical or economic factors were allowed to show through to the deficit without sanction. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | This policy preference was based on expectations of growth in business activity at a pace averaging in the vicinity of the economy's potential, a perception among the members that the risks to such an outlook were more balanced than earlier, and anticipations that under these circumstances inflation would remain constrained. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | But there’s also a role for monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Long-term unemployment in the current economy is—is the worst—really the worst it’s been in the postwar period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Meeting Participants' Views and Committee Policy ActionIn conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants-the four members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks-provided projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and consumer price inflation for each year from 2009 through 2011. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In a nutshell, I believe that the factors of globalization, deregulation, and financial innovation, arising partly in response to episodes of high inflation, have effectively eroded the central bank monopoly on the provision of monetary services and have enhanced global competition among currencies. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | U.S. inflation remains muted. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | they rebounded late in the period in response to the release of firmer economic data and growing concerns regarding the sustainability of current domestic asset prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The faster pace of real GDP growth was expected to be supported by an easing in the restraint from changes in fiscal policy, increases in consumer and business confidence, further improvements in credit availability and financial conditions, and a pickup in the rate of foreign economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | What I do want to share with you is how the equity market fits into my thinking about monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | If so, GDP growth this calendar year could be the fastest since 1983. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A majority of FOMC participants indicated that they expect core inflation to remain below our 2 percent objective and employment to fall short of its maximum level at least through the end of 2022. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | This direction of causality may obscure the negative relationship, running from higher inflation to lower growth, presumed to hold in the longer term. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Members agreed that the Federal Reserve was committed to using its full range of tools to support the U. S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum-employment and price-stability goals. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | To be clear, when I say "risk premium" I mean the additional compensation required by investors for holding a risky security--that is, one with uncertain returns--above the compensation that would be demanded by risk-neutral investors who care only about expected returns. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Participants generally agreed that the drag on U. S. economic activity from the appreciation of the dollar since the summer of 2014 and the slowdown in foreign economic growth, particularly in emerging market economies, was likely to continue to depress U. S. net exports for some time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Pursuant to the Committee's instructions in March, the staff had activated its study of the possible employment of mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Maes) in outright System open market operations. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The first driver is the long-term increase in the demand for currency and reserves. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The European Central Bank (ECB) began operating on June 1, 1998, and assumed responsibility for monetary policy in the euro area on January 1, 1999. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In considering the statement to be released following this meeting, members concurred that it should note that even with the rise in oil prices, the expansion remained firm and labor markets continued to improve gradually. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Members agreed to continue to monitor inflation developments closely. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | However, at 7.7 percent, the unemployment rate remains elevated. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Moreover, substantial gains in productivity were muting the effects of rising labor compensation on unit costs, and vigorous competition in numerous markets was continuing to make it very difficult or impossible for business firms to raise their prices to cover rising costs or enhance profit margins. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Current Economic Situation and Outlook While the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has taken a tragic human toll measured in terms of lives lost and suffering inflicted, as a direct result of the necessary public health policies put in place to mitigate and control the spread of the virus, the pandemic has also inflicted a heavy toll on the levels of activity and employment in the U.S. economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | An anticipated sharp slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation also would damp domestic production as the growth of stocks was brought into balance with the expected more moderate trajectory of final sales. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | As a result, deregulation, globalization, and innovation have made it easier for citizens to move their wealth out of nominal assets in their local currency and thereby avoid any inflation tax should their government show signs that it might resort to inflationary tactics to finance spending.6 At the same time, the public’s understanding of the costs of inflation has increased, in part because of experiences of high inflation in many countries in the 1980s. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Some of the increase in sentiment and changes in asset prices could be tied to expectations of more expansive fiscal policy, another upside risk. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | While recognizing the improvement in a number of indicators of economic activity and labor market conditions since the fall, many members indicated that further improvement in the outlook for the labor market would be required before it would be appropriate to slow the pace of asset purchases. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | As a policymaker, I can assure you that any model of inflation that did not take account of these effects, and how they might or might not affect ongoing rates of inflation, would have been of little practical use to the FOMC over the past few years. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | I look forward, as always, to my conversation with Tim, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But monetary policy has little ability to affect inflation this year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | By the same token, the rate of price inflation was lower than had been reported, consistent with the findings of a number of studies of distortions in published price data. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In addition, some policymakers observed that the timing and magnitude of future policy adjustments would ultimately be determined by the Committee's interpretation of the incoming data on the economy and prices rather than by its current expectation of those developments. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Global growth estimates continue to be marked down, and global disinflationary pressures cloud the outlook for U.S. inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | It is worth noting that today the economy is very strong and is well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | there are some indications that headwinds to global growth may be beginning to abate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Treasury yields rose sharply on its release as market participants traced out the report's presumed implications for monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Staff Economic Outlook The projection for U. S. economic activity prepared by the staff for the April–May FOMC meeting was revised up on net. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | To the extent that these producers are foreign, there should be a corresponding drop in domestic demand. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In December, the consumer price index (CPI) rose somewhat faster than in recent months, primarily reflecting an upturn in consumer energy prices; core CPI inflation remained low. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | I will then turn to three challenges our dynamic economy is posing for policy at present: First, what would the consequences of a sharp rise in the price of oil be for the U.S. economy? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | It was suggested that the weakening expansion of expenditures in these capital goods might reflect a surfeit in capacity following a period of extraordinary growth in many industries--for example, those related to fiber optics. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Some participants believed that considerable labor market slack remained, especially when indicators other than the unemployment rate were taken into account, including the unusually large fraction of the labor force working part time for economic reasons. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | I mean, it really depends on how long it takes for wages and, more than that, prices to come down for inflation to come down. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of Treasury securities, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) at least at the current pace to sustain smooth functioning of markets for these securities, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Some participants judged that a less accommodative future stance of policy would likely be warranted and that the Committee should convey a strong commitment to address elevated inflation pressures. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Surveys indicated that households’ expectations of inflation over the next year were little changed in February | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And one reason for that is that long-term interest rates generally embody two factors. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Price inflation had picked up a little but, abstracting from energy, had remained relatively subdued. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | will soon fall well below its underlying trend as the price of energy falls back to its initial level. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Deflation, like inflation, would distort resource allocation and interfere with the economy's ability to reach its full potential. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | When we reach maximum employment, when we reach a state where labor market conditions are at maximum employment in the Committee’s judgment, it’s very possible that the inflation test will already be met. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Wage growth is not—there are many factors that affect it—it’s not definitive in any sense in determining our policy, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | There should be able to be an adjustment that would have lower than—perhaps lower-than-expected increases in unemployment—lower than would be expected in the ordinary course of events because the level—the ratio of, of vacancies to unemployed is just out of keeping with historical experience. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Home prices continued to rise briskly. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Any such rise in inflation expectations and associated upward pressure on inflation itself would likely prove costly to reverse. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The lagged effects of the substantial easing in monetary policy this year and the fiscal stimulus measures already enacted into law were expected to buttress demand and economic recovery over the next year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | But again, our basic forecast is one which is basically, as was pointed out earlier by Mr. Hilsenrath, a moderately optimistic forecast, where growth picks up as we pass through this period of fiscal restraint; where unemployment continues to fall at a gradual pace as it has been since last September—and we have made some progress since last September; and inflation rises slowly towards 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | inflation was projected to pick up gradually in association with a partial reversal of the decline in energy prices this year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, members of the Board of Governors and participating Federal Reserve Bank presidents submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate for each year from 2015 through 2017 and over the longer run, conditional on each participant's judgment of appropriate monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | You know, it’s interest rates, it’s risk spreads, it’s currency, it’s the stock market, it’s credit availability, it’s many, many factors. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | However, it was noted that slower growth in productivity might have become the norm. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Indeed, the proposed reduction in the nominal federal funds rate would about offset the apparent increase in the real federal funds rate stemming from a recent decline in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | This is the scenario from which we draw the lesson that timely, typically preemptive, policy restraint to avoid the excesses of a boom results in longer expansions and avoids unnecessary fluctuations in both output and inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | ” The vote encompassed approval of the text below for inclusion in the statement to be released at 2:15 p. m. : “In these circumstances, the Committee’s predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | A couple of participants pointed to the decline in credit spreads to relatively low levels by historical standards; one of these participants noted the risk of either a sharp rise in spreads, which could have negative repercussions for aggregate demand, or a continuation of the decline in spreads, which could undermine financial stability over time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | But again, our basic forecast is one which is basically, as was pointed out earlier by Mr. Hilsenrath, a moderately optimistic forecast, where growth picks up as we pass through this period of fiscal restraint; where unemployment continues to fall at a gradual pace as it has been since last September—and we have made some progress since last September; and inflation rises slowly towards 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In light of these significant policy actions, the risks to growth were now thought to be more closely balanced by the risks to inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Because an interest rate, by definition, is the exchange rate for money against non-monies, money obviously is central to monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Lessons from Past Productivity Booms First, many of the technological innovations associated with past productivity booms were general purpose technologies (GPTs) with widespread applicability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In contrast, under a price-level-targeting scheme, continuing deflation combined with an upward-sloping path for the price-level target causes the size of the price-level gap to increase over time. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Two changes have particular relevance for the employment leg of the dual mandate.15 The new framework calls for monetary policy to seek to eliminate shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, in contrast to the previous approach that called for policy to minimize deviations when employment is too high as well as too low. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | However, we now know that an unexpected and unrecognized slowdown in productivity growth occurred in 1973. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This is yet another concerningly high reading, and it set another 40-year record high despite the expectation of many forecasters that inflation had peaked earlier in the year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | It was noted, however, that increases in compensation that exceeded productivity gains might be absorbed to some extent by a narrowing of firms’ high profit margins. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Long-term government bond yields declined and headline equity indexes increased, on net, in most of these countries, with bank stock prices in the euro area rising more than broader indexes. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | that is, the capacity utilization rate is lower than would have been expected, based on past experience, at the prevailing unemployment rate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | However, as had been the case for many years, the members remained concerned that forecasts of money growth were still subject to a wide range of error in terms of the anticipated relationships between money growth and aggregate economic performance. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
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