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2 | With today's action, the real federal funds rate--measured as the difference between the nominal funds rate and a moving average of core PCE inflation--would move slightly into positive territory. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Indeed, the discrepancy between actual and predicted money growth was sufficiently large that the P* model, if not subjected to judgmental adjustments, would have predicted deflation for 1991 and 1992. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | But in many countries around the Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL world that are important commodity exporters, the decline we’ve seen in oil prices has had a depressing effect on their growth, their trade with us and other trade partners, and caused problems that have had spillovers to the global economy as well. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | And so you’re seeing prices are moving back up off their lows there. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The effect of higher energy prices on real incomes was likely still restraining consumer spending. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Several participants observed that the trimmed mean measure of PCE price inflation constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas had stayed near 2 percent recently, underscoring the view that the recent low readings on inflation will prove transitory. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Participants pointed to potential interactions between financial stresses and the housing market contraction as the primary source of continuing downside risks to growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In particular, I will focus on liquidity regulation and supervision as well as interactions with monetary policy tools. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The GDP (in real terms, after inflation) has been growing continuously for eight years and this long expansion, instead of petering out, has accelerated in the last couple of years. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. " | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | 1 Chair Yellen intended to say that “interest rate differentials globally do tend to induce capital flows that have impacts on exchange rates.” GREG ROBB. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | This role is largely a reflection of the New York Fed's responsibility for implementing monetary policy decisions through its open market desk operations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Nevertheless, the path of inflation is the biggest risk to my outlook. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In light of the economic outlook, almost all members agreed to indicate that the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014, longer than had been indicated in recent FOMC statements. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The recent information on inflation was seen as disappointing. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | A surge in nonfarm business inventory investment accounted for a substantial portion of the acceleration in output in the first quarter, and an anticipated moderation in the accumulation of inventories was an important element in forecasts of greatly reduced economic growth in the current quarter. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Ensuring that every American has the chance to improve his or her economic circumstances through hard work, saving, entrepreneurship, and other productive activities is essential for building healthy communities and achieving sustainable economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Back then, the unemployment rate was 8.1percent and nonfarm payrolls were reported to have increased at a monthly rate of 97,000 over the prior six months; today, those figures are 7.6 percent and 194,000, respectively. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | For example, the Stock-Watson indicator and other indicators based on interest rates and spreads signaled the 1990-91 recession very weakly and rather late. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Several participants discussed the possible complications that additional purchases could cause for the eventual withdrawal of policy accommodation, a few mentioned the prospect of inflationary risks, and some noted that further asset purchases could foster market behavior that could undermine financial stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Several participants raised concerns regarding the longer-run effects of the pandemic, including how it could lead to a restructuring in some sectors of the economy that could slow employment growth or could accelerate technological disruption that was likely limiting the pricing power of firms. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Households' longer-term inflation expectations also edged up in both November and December. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | While the absence of increasing price inflation was a welcome development, members were concerned that the break with historical patterns might not persist. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | To date, the spillover from the surge in oil prices has been modest. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The net effect could be steady, rising, or falling inflation--depending on whether productivity continues to accelerate and on how low the unemployment rate is driven in the process. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Recent FOMC Decisions and the New Monetary Policy Framework At our most recent FOMC meetings, the Committee made important changes to our policy statement that upgraded our forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate and asset purchases, and that also provided unprecedented information about our policy reaction function. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Analysis suggests it could take many years with a formal AIT rule to return the price level to target following a lower-bound episode, and a mechanical AIT rule is likely to become increasingly difficult to explain and implement as conditions change over time.15 In contrast, FAIT is better suited for the highly uncertain and dynamic context in which policymaking takes place. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In contrast, Spanish economic activity stagnated in the third quarter, Greek GDP extended its decline, and more-recent indicators point to continued weakness in peripheral European economies. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | This equation relates inflation to, among other factors, lagged inflation, resource utilization, and movements in the relative price of imports excluding energy, semiconductors, and computers. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | and it seems to produce results not too different in practice from those associated with central banks that are flexible inflation targeters. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In addition, contacts reported that softer export sales, weaker economic activity abroad, and elevated levels of uncertainty regarding the global outlook were weighing on business sentiment and leading firms to reassess plans for investment spending. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. " | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | And then, what the statement emphasizes, and this is the same language we used in December and January, we used the language especially if inflation is running below our 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | At earlier stages of processing, the producer price index for core intermediate materials continued to decline through May, albeit at a slower pace than that seen at the end of 2008. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | And we’ve talked about the effects on asset prices, but we have continued to analyze the effects of changes in interest rates, for example, on decisions like investment or car purchases. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | If this high-pressure management inadvertently carried the economy beyond its productive potential, some cost in terms of inflation could be expected, but such costs appeared tolerable in light of the employment gains that came with them. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | On the upside, recent fiscal policy changes could lead to a greater expansion in economic activity over the next few years than the staff projected. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | China has eased some of its most stringent COVID containment measures but recently revived travel restrictions in some areas, and its approach to the pandemic remains an upside risk for inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In addition, the May 1, 2019 trimmed mean measures of inflation did not go down as much. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The persistence of that into, into inflation over time is just not there. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The bottom line is that past performance, in several important dimensions, has been extraordinary and that prospects look favorable for continued expansion and relatively low inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | With energy prices having turned down, overall consumer price inflation had eased slightly in recent months, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Rapid responses by businesses to changes in free-market prices have muted much of the tendency for unsold goods to back up, or unmet needs to produce shortages. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Some survey measures of inflation expectations declined during the period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | October 19, 2020 U.S. Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Initiatives to Sustain the Flow of Credit to Households and Firms Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the Unconventional Convention of the American Bankers Association, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today at the Unconventional Convention of the American Bankers Association.1 I look forward to my conversation with Rob Nichols, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | At the same time, the staff viewed the risks around its outlook for the unemployment rate as roughly balanced. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee at its meeting in February established ranges for growth of M2 and M3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Broad stock price indexes rose, on net, over the intermeeting period, as investors responded to strong second-quarter earnings reports and indications that the economy may be stabilizing. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | also how far it will fall and if it will fall soon enough to avoid spurring a concerning rise in longer-term inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | However, nothing prevents a central bank from switching its focus from the price of reserves to the quantity or growth of reserves. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Same thing with economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Homebuilding was forecast to decline somewhat but to stabilize at a relatively high level in the context of continued income growth and the generally favorable cash-flow affordability of home ownership. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Equity prices in most foreign countries were up moderately since the January FOMC meeting. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, with monetary policy assumed to remain highly accommodative, the staff continued to anticipate that real GDP growth would outpace that of potential over much of this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically low levels. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | He thought future developments were equally likely to warrant an action in either direction, and he did not think the Committee should take a step that probably would cause expectations of further easing to become embedded in market interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | I would describe some measures of wage growth as having moved up some. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | As a policymaker, I'd like to think that well-executed monetary and fiscal policies--each focused importantly on their respective long-run goals--played some role in creating economic conditions that fostered noninflationary economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | We have not seen wage growth pick up. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Hungary and Poland adopted inflation targeting following parliamentary acts stipulating that price stability was the main objective for the central bank. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Some participants suggested that the persistently high level of unemployment reflected the impact of structural factors, including mismatches between the skills of the unemployed and the skills demanded in sectors in which jobs were currently available. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Pressures on labor resources were likely to ease somewhat as the expansion of economic activity slowed, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In its accompanying statement, the Committee indicated that, despite elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions, the expansion in economic activity appeared solid. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Although personally I have no doubt that quantification of the price stability objective is fully consistent with the current dual mandate, I also appreciate the delicate issues of communication raised by such a change. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The distortions in the markets I have reviewed do not appear all that large, given the stance of monetary policy, and should we experience much higher interest rates and softer asset prices our resilient markets and flexible economy probably could absorb such a shock. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | This was a somewhat sharper effect than was anticipated at the beginning of the year and accounts for a small part of the forecast error on inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Housing starts and the demand for new homes had declined further, house prices in many parts of the country were falling faster than they had towards the end of 2007, and inventories of unsold homes remained quite elevated. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In both of the examples I have just discussed, the medium-frequency evolution of market-based, survey-based, and model-based estimates of r* and expected inflation have, over time, tended to move broadly together. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | For instance, in countries where sovereign or corporate debt levels are high, higher interest rates could increase debt-servicing burdens and concerns about debt sustainability, which could be exacerbated by currency depreciation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | November 01, 2006 Community Development Financial Institutions: Promoting Economic Growth and Opportunity Chairman Ben S. Bernanke At the Opportunity Finance Network’s Annual Conference, Washington, D.C. Share Good afternoon and thank you for inviting me to speak to your annual conference. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Domestic demand growth has slumped in many foreign economies because of varying combinations of an increase in saving rates and a decline in investment. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In the near term, the 12-month change in PCE prices was expected to move above 2 percent as the low inflation readings from the spring of last year drop out of the calculation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | All members agreed that the risks to achieving the anticipated reduction in inflation remained of greatest concern. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The labor market improved in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Those indicators were mixed regarding the pace of economic activity within the manufacturing sector. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In the September Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms (SCOOS), dealers indicated, on net, that they loosened credit terms applicable to several important classes of counterparties and types of collateral over the past three months amid increased demand for funding for most types of securities covered in the survey. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, it was noted that the Committee had in place tools that would enable it to remove policy accommodation quickly if necessary to avoid an undesirable increase in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As a result, the likely pace and extent of policy easing expected by investors increased, and yields on nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury coupon securities fell. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | So, I think you raise a very important point because, although there is a great deal of market focus on the timing of liftoff, what to matter in thinking about the stance of policy is what the entire path of interest rates will look like. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Some participants stated that low interest rates appeared to be contributing to strong sales of autos or, more generally, of consumer durables. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | It is again useful to compare estimates of expected inflation derived from breakeven inflation data with estimates of expected inflation obtained from surveys—for example, the expected inflation over the next 5 to 10 years from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Millions of new jobs have been created in the last few years; and unemployment, now at 4.3 percent, has been at or below 5 percent for over two years. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | While a number of members saw some slight further disinflation as the most plausible outcome, no one expected a material change in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Modern quantitative approaches to risk measurement and risk management take as their starting point historical experience with market price fluctuations, which is statistically summarized in probability distributions. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Household spending stepped up in mid-April, coinciding with the first disbursement of stimulus payments to households and a ramp-up in the payout of unemployment benefits, and showed the most pronounced increases in the states that received more benefits.9 With some of the fiscal support measures either provided as one-off payments or slated to come to an end in July, the strength of the recovery will depend importantly on the timing, magnitude, and distribution of additional fiscal support. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today.1 I look forward to our conversation, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Productivity change for this output concept has increased even more than for traditional concepts. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Moreover, in light of the anticipated modest pace of economic recovery, the Committee expects that over coming quarters the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward its mandate-consistent levels. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. " | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Members also agreed that there was only a remote possibility that the process of disinflation would cumulate to the point of a decline for an extended period in the general price level. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Well, you know, if the economy were disappointing, we—you know, our actions wouldn’t purely be based on inflation, we would also take employment into account. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | This modal projection for the path of the unemployment rate is, according to the Atlanta Fed jobs calculator, consistent with a rebound in labor force participation to its estimated demographic trend and is also consistent with cumulative employment gains this year and next that, by the end of 2022, eliminate the 7 million "employment gap" relative to the previous cycle peak I mentioned earlier.5 As is the case for GDP growth and the unemployment rate, my projections for headline and core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation are also similar to the paths of the SEP median of modal projections for these variables. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | There is much about the inflation process that we do not understand, and I have been surprised at the extent of the pickup in core inflation this year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Some price increases had been noted | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This is the scenario from which we draw the lesson that timely, typically preemptive, policy restraint to avoid the excesses of a boom results in longer expansions and avoids unnecessary fluctuations in both output and inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | As a result, most market interest rates rose somewhat in the period after the November 16 meeting. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | and it seems to produce results not too different in practice from those associated with central banks that are flexible inflation targeters. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In that regard, the prospective strength of demand pressures and related outlook for productivity were subject to a wide range of uncertainty, and there were reasons to believe that economic growth could well slow without any adjustment to policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Foreign economic growth declined in the second quarter. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
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