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0	This was a key reason why currency crises of the past few decades were so costly: Sharp depreciations of the exchange rate boosted the domestic-currency value of foreign debt and wreaked havoc with government finances and corporate balance sheets.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Although the initial offerings of these securities were well received, investor demand at the most recent sales was not as strong, a development consistent with the declines in the prices of non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities over the intermeeting period.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The benefits achieved through more-stable prices are substantial.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	A main reason I expect this outcome is simply the fact that the very low inflation readings during last spring's deep economic contraction will drop from the usual calculation of 12-month price changes.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In these circumstances, I believe, it is appropriate to put greater weight on incoming data to determine whether the stance of monetary policy should be changed.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Even as the outlook for real activity has weakened, there have been some important developments on the inflation front.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Core consumer price inflation continued to slow, and inflation expectations remained subdued over the closing months of 2003.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	So that means a more prolonged shortfall of inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The explanations included a decline in inflation risk premiums, possibly reflecting a lower perceived probability of higher inflation outcomes	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The increase over the last few months in five-year measures of inflation compensation derived from Treasury nominal and inflation-indexed securities might be a warning sign that expectations were not as well anchored as they had been over the summer.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	However, the increase in real GDP was projected to be sufficient to reduce slack in the labor market only slowly, and the unemployment rate was expected to remain elevated at the end of 2012.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	More fundamentally, however, the members believed that current growth in aggregate demand, should it persist, would continue to exceed the expansion of potential output and, by putting added pressure on already tight labor markets, would at some point foster inflationary imbalances that would undermine the economic expansion.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	When anticipations of Fed tapering led to higher U.S. interest rates and higher market volatility, these trades may have been quickly unwound, engendering particularly sharp declines in EME exchange rates and asset prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Total nonfarm payroll employment expanded at a solid pace in July and August.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In light of asset market developments over the intermeeting period, which in large part appeared to reflect heightened expectations among investors that the Federal Reserve would undertake additional purchases of longer-term securities, the November forecast was conditioned on lower long-term interest rates, higher stock prices, and a lower foreign exchange value of the dollar than was the staff's previous forecast.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Indeed, over the past century, by far the smallest part of the growth in America's real gross domestic product reflects increased physical product measured in bulk or weight.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Increased rates and a smaller balance sheet raise the cost of borrowing and thus reduce household and business demand.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The Federal Reserve takes into account the spillovers of higher interest rates, a stronger dollar, and weaker demand from foreign economies into the United States, as well as in the reverse direction.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	So those who can get credit, together with the low prices of houses, are at—able to buy much more house than they could have a few years ago.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The first driver is the long-term increase in the demand for currency and reserves.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Participants continued to expect that, as the effects of transitory factors waned and labor market conditions strengthened further, inflation would stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Job gains had been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined substantially.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Developments in foreign trade were moderating demands on domestic resources; but with domestic spending strong, members were becoming more concerned that those developments might not exert enough restraint on aggregate demand to slow the expansion to a sustainable pace in line with the growth of the economy's potential.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Market-based measures of inflation compensation had remained low,	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	I would say, in the area of commercial real estate, while valuations are high, we are seeing some tightening of lending standards and less debt growth associated with that rise in commercial real estate prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	An important element in interpreting financial market prices is the identification of the risk premiums they contain.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Rather, members agreed that inflation was likely to moderate in coming quarters,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	I don’t think we look at—I understand what you’re asking, but we’re looking at—our mandate is price inflation and maximum employment, and that’s what we’re looking at with setting interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Wage inflation has been running at 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	With respect to inflation, the netting of the crosscurrents suggests a modest increase in inflation in 1998, albeit from a steadily downward-revised and very low rate in 1997.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The U. S. international trade deficit declined somewhat in May after reaching a record high in April.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In a traditional growth accounting setup, these effects would show up in multifactor productivity growth.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Faster productivity growth was among the factors that boosted equity valuations; in turn, larger expected productivity advances and a lower cost of equity capital provided a further stimulus to investment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	October 12, 2021 U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the 2021 Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting: Sustainable Economic Growth and Financial Stability in a Diverging, Decarbonizing, Digitizing, Indebted World, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today at the 2021 Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting.1 I regret that we are not meeting in person, but I look forward, as always, to a conversation with my good friend and one-time colleague Tim Adams.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Moreover, when some measures of inflation were close to 1 percent in 2003, the Federal Open Market Committee's official statements specifically noted that any further substantial decline in inflation would be unwelcome, mainly because of the risk that a falling price level (which has not occurred since the Great Depression) could cause a significant disruption to economic activity and employment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Inflation in 1996, measured by the chain price index for GDP or the core CPI, was the lowest in 30 years.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The absence of further large gains in stock prices, should recent trends persist, would remove this stimulus and probably induce some moderation in the growth of consumer spending.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Even with generous allowances for structural change, labor utilization would seem to be at a level that might eventually begin to put persistent and growing pressure on labor costs and prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	"4 Importantly, the level of uncertainty around the paths for inflation and employment are higher than normal as we navigate the unprecedented reopening of the world economy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	For a variety of reasons, some emerging-market economies have resisted upward pressures on their exchange rates, even if that resistance requires buying large quantities of dollars to keep their currencies from appreciating.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Several participants raised concerns regarding the longer-run effects of the pandemic, including how it could lead to a restructuring in some sectors of the economy that could slow employment growth or could accelerate technological disruption that was likely limiting the pricing power of firms.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In their review of the outlook for prices, members noted that incoming data over the intermeeting period had shown a slowing in core inflation from the high levels posted earlier in the year, consistent with the Committee's view that a portion of the earlier increase had reflected transitory factors.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	So, as I mentioned, we’re going to be looking at all of those things: activity, labor market, inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	I’m old enough to remember what very high inflation was like.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In their discussion of prices, participants indicated that data over the intermeeting period, including measures of inflation expectations, suggested that underlying inflation was not in the process of moving higher.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Econometric methods were also refined to improve estimation and to accommodate more-complex dynamics in money demand equations.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	First, longer-maturity obligations may be more attractive because of more stable inflation, better-anchored inflation expectations, and a reduction in economic volatility more generally.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Although some of the recent data on economic activity had been better than anticipated, most participants saw the incoming information as broadly in line with their earlier projections for moderate growth; accordingly, their views on the economic outlook had not changed appreciably.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	China has eased some of its most stringent COVID containment measures but recently revived travel restrictions in some areas, and its approach to the pandemic remains an upside risk for inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Some participants mentioned upside risks around the inflation outlook that could arise if temporary factors influencing inflation turned out to be more persistent than expected.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Once this process is completed, however, we might expect consumer price inflation to move into better alignment with long-run expectations and thus settle in around 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	But I want to emphasize that we do have a commitment to raising inflation to 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The possibility that longer-term inflation expectations may have edged down was roughly counterbalanced by the risks that somewhat firmer inflation this year could be more persistent than expected, particularly in an economy that was projected to continue operating above its long-run potential.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	This evaluation assumed continued sluggish growth in final demand during the period immediately ahead.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	There is, in fact, an unusual discrepancy between the unemployment and capacity utilization rates, compared to previous expansions; that is, the capacity utilization rate is lower than would have been expected, based on past experience, at the prevailing unemployment rate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Productivity change for this output concept has increased even more than for traditional concepts.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	However, in the view of at least some members, recent developments had reduced the unwelcome prospect of substantial additional disinflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	To do this will demand not only greater specialized knowledge, but also an ability to deal with risk and uncertainty.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Money versus Interest Rates For most of the post-World War II period, monetary economists have vigorously debated whether the Fed should target money or interest rates in setting policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	We said that we expect to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomesâ€”as well as our maximum-employment mandateâ€”are achieved, and also that we expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment, until inflation has risen to 2 percent, and until inflation is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The disruptions to global economic activity had significantly affected financial conditions and impaired the flow of credit to U. S. households and businesses.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee at its meeting in February established ranges for growth of M2 and M3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Sargent, T. "Discussion of 'Policy Rules for Open Economics' by Lawrence Ball," in J.B. Taylor, ed., Monetary Policy Rules.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	First, the significant appreciation of the dollar over the last two years has clearly had an important restraining effect on U.S. inflation, both via the direct effect on the prices of imported goods and on the pricing power of domestic firms producing import-competing goods.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	” The vote encompassed approval of the paragraph below for inclusion in the statement to be released shortly after the meeting: “The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	As always, each participant’s projections are conditioned on his or her own view of appropriate monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	We’re charged by Congress with trying to pursue maximum employment, and we have taken that very seriously.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	And inflation is well above target.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The external sector was projected to continue to support domestic economic activity throughout the forecast period.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Accordingly, while the weight of current economic output is probably only modestly higher than it was a half century ago, value added, adjusted for price change, has risen well over threefold.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The unemployment rate was unchanged over the period between the April and June meetings, but payroll employment posted solid gains, and, on balance, a range of labor market indicators suggested that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Following the GFC, it took more than eight years for employment and inflation to return to similar mandate-consistent levels.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Already, various trimmed price indexes are running much closer to 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Major reasons for optimism about the outlook were the substantial easing in monetary policy, whose lagged effects would be felt increasingly in the year ahead, and the fiscal stimulus measures that already had been enacted and might well be supplemented over coming months.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	A fifth factor is supply bottlenecks that manufacturers and importers are currently experiencing; supply chain constraints are boosting prices, particularly for goodsâ€”less so for services.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	But, by June, prices had risen 4 percent over the previous 12 months, ticked up to 4.2 percent in July, and increased further to 4.3 percent in August.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	It was also noted that the weakness in homebuilding along with the continued rise in house prices suggested that supply constraints were also weighing on construction activity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	So far this year, payroll employment had expanded at a faster pace than last year and the unemployment rate had declined further, although it remained elevated.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Referring to monetary policy developments in the 1980s, Greenspan writes: In recognition of the lag in monetary policy's impact on economic activity, a preemptive response to the potential for building inflationary pressures was made an even more important feature of policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In May, there was a notable rebound in employment and decline in unemployment, and these developments are certainly welcome.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	U. S. real GDP was forecast to plummet and the unemployment rate to soar in the second quarter of this year.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	With about $250 billion of these inflation-protected securities now outstanding, we can get readings along the entire maturity structure of real interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	growth in the far larger part of the services economy, which has led to low unemployment, good job creation, rising wages, that’s kind of the two big pieces of it that you see.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Household spending stepped up in mid-April, coinciding with the first disbursement of stimulus payments to households and a ramp-up in the payout of unemployment benefits, and showed the most pronounced increases in the states that received more benefits.9 With some of the fiscal support measures either provided as one-off payments or slated to come to an end in July, the strength of the recovery will depend importantly on the timing, magnitude, and distribution of additional fiscal support.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	One might even argue that if a central bank ever converged on a single monetary rule, there would be no need for a monetary policy committee.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	There is, in fact, an unusual discrepancy between the unemployment and capacity utilization rates, compared to previous expansions	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	A key factor in this assessment continued to be their outlook for rapid further gains in structural productivity that would help to hold down increases in unit labor costs.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	also, continued solid economic growth abroad was expected to boost the growth of U. S. exports for some period ahead.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Investor perceptions of a somewhat less accommodative tone of Federal Reserve communications, as well as the softer-than-expected reading for the April CPI, likely contributed to the decline in inflation compensation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Housing activity was generally holding up well across the country as the effects of appreciably reduced mortgage interest rates apparently compensated for the negative effects of declining financial wealth on the demand for housing.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Despite the substantial monetary easing that had been implemented already and the fiscal stimulus, including federal tax rebates, that was in train, the forecast anticipated that sluggish hiring and the decline in household wealth would restrain the growth of both consumer spending and housing demand.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	They remarked that a stronger dollar, weaker demand, and lower oil prices were factors likely to put downward pressure on inflation in the period ahead and observed that this meant that the return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective would likely be further delayed.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	We, frankly, didn’t even get inflation back up to target—without seeing wages getting out of touch with—with where they should be, so that’s the—that’s the biggest thing we can do.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In addition, any other imbalances are more likely to grow to worrisome proportions during an unsustainable boom and are more likely to unwind in a disruptive manner if confronted by rising inflation, sharply higher interest rates in response to higher inflation, and a subsequent recession.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	as a result, headline PCE price inflation was expected to substantially exceed core PCE price inflation in 2008.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	For all these conceptual uncertainties and measurement problems, a specific numerical inflation target would represent an unhelpful and false precision.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Consumer price inflation had remained relatively subdued over the summer months.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.

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