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2 | In discussing the increases in U. S. longer-term interest rates that occurred in the wake of the June FOMC meeting and the associated press conference, meeting participants pointed to heightened financial market uncertainty about the path of monetary policy and a shift of market expectations toward less policy accommodation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | That's why I said that flexibility is also an important characteristic of monetary policy during a time of financial turmoil. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The Committee continues to view changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | So, what are the implications for monetary policy? | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | If, in their quest to reduce macroeconomic risk, policymakers overshoot and ease policy too much, they need to be willing to expeditiously remove at least part of that ease before inflationary pressures become a threat. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As the factors restraining economic growth are projected to fade further over time, the median rate rises to 3 percent by the end of 2018, close to its longer-run normal level. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Inflation-targeting regimes may allow some consideration of real-side costs either by specifying relatively long adjustment periods, to allow a high probability that the central bank can bring inflation down to the target within the allotted time, or by including "escape clauses" that grant temporary exemptions for large supply shocks. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Risks to the inflation projection also were seen as balanced. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, participants expected inflation to return to the Committee's 2 percent objective over time and the labor market to remain strong. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Overall, research indicates that trade with developing economies in particular has slowed the rate of growth of import prices faced by industrialized countries, with estimates of the reduction ranging widely from 1/2 to 2 percentage points. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | labor productivity remained on a strong upward trend. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, held down in part by the effects of declines in energy and non-energy import prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Some contacts indicated that while input costs were higher, it appeared that the pass-through of these higher costs to consumer prices was limited. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | But it’s not easy to get a clear read on the implications of asset prices for the overall outlook. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The staff raised slightly its projection for inflation during the second half of this year, as the upward pressure on consumer prices from earlier increases in import and commodity prices was expected to persist a little longer than previously anticipated. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | A couple of participants noted that uncertainties concerning both the level of, and the source of shifts in, potential output made it difficult to base decisions about monetary policy on real-time measures of the output gap. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | It also requires that policy tighten or ease systematically to bring aggregate demand in line with the economy's productive potential, not only because output stabilization is a policy objective in its own right | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Participants anticipated that inflation would continue to gradually rise as resource utilization tightened further and as wage pressures became more apparent; several expected that declines in the foreign exchange value of the dollar in recent months would also likely help return inflation to 2 percent over the medium term. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We also do see the different measures of slack in the labor market point to different assessments of just what maximum employment is. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And if the stock theory of the portfolio is correct, which we believe it is, holding all of those securities off of the market and reinvesting and still keeping the, you know, rolling-over maturing securities, will still continue to put downward pressure on interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | And, as I went into detail in Jackson Hole and won’t repeat all of that there, there are other ways in which we see underutilization—high levels that have come down only very marginally of part-time employment for economic—or involuntary part-time employment, perhaps some remaining shortfall of labor force participation as a result of cyclical factors. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Inflation, in fact, is under control, and starting to come down. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Median inflation in the nine countries likewise declined, averaging 9-1/2 percent in 1995-99 and 5 percent in 2000-04.Return to text 4. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In the view of one member, however, aggregate final demand was so strong that, with economic activity and the associated demand for labor having expanded at an unsustainable pace for some time, one could be reasonably confident that inflation would most likely pick up in the absence of policy action. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In recent years, aggressive cost-cutting in the United States has been linked to greater emphasis on maximization of shareholder value and less on growth and diversification, which was more prominent in the 1970s and 1980s. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Strong fundamentals, including low interest rates, wide profit margins, and a high level of liquid assets, were seen as supporting expenditures on software and equipment going forward. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Committee again anticipated that it likely would be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remained well anchored. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Recent data on consumer prices and unit labor costs led the staff to revise down slightly its projection for core PCE price inflation for 2010 and 2011 | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The staff forecast prepared for this meeting continued to suggest that the expansion would gradually moderate from its currently elevated pace to a rate around, or perhaps a little below, the growth of the economy's estimated potential. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The combination of a commitment to condition liftoff on the sustained achievement of our employment and inflation objectives with yield curve caps targeted at the same horizon has the potential to work well in many circumstances. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But also we want to see inflation move up back to our 2 percent objective over the medium term, and so seeing above-trend growth and continuing tightness—greater tightness in labor and product markets—I think that will help us achieve our objective as well with respect to inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In coming months, as those earlier declines drop out of the calculation, inflation should move up closer to 2 percent and stabilize around that level over the medium term. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Overall, though shifts in business attitudes are difficult to measure, I believe that markets reward businesses that outperform their competitors and that, as demand picks up, companies will respond to opportunities to incorporate technological advances in production, communication, and organization. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The guidance indicates an expectation that it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range of the federal funds rate until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Significant cost cutting by firms was thought to have led to a sizable increase in productivity growth in the first half of the year | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This term has been interpreted by many observers to mean that the Committee's reaction function aimed to be symmetric on either side of the 2 percent inflation goal, and that the FOMC set policy with the (ex ante) aim that the 2 percent goal should represent an inflation ceiling in economic expansions following economic downturns in which inflation falls below target. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | But I have showed that past experience actually indicates that a reduction in vacancies can take place without a big loss of employment, and this is the kind of soft landing anticipated by FOMC participants. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Specifically, the projections converged on CPI inflation rates of 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent in 1997 and 2-1/2 to 3 percent in 1998. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Against this background, the members agreed on the need to continue to monitor the economy with care for signs either of a potential upturn in inflation or greater softness in the expansion than they were currently forecasting and to be prepared to respond promptly in either direction. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Also, the Committee will pay close attention to measures of inflation expectations to ensure that those expectations remain well anchored. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Recent increases in house prices and equity prices were positives, but participants generally expected no more than moderate growth in consumer spending over the near term. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | When anticipations of Fed tapering led to higher U.S. interest rates and higher market volatility, these trades may have been quickly unwound, engendering particularly sharp declines in EME exchange rates and asset prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The dual mandate seems proper and fitting, given that economic costs are incurred both by having inflation stray from its long-run goal and by having output deviate from the economy's potential to produce; and it seems to produce results not too different in practice from those associated with central banks that are flexible inflation targeters. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A number of commodity price indexes have indeed risen sharply over the past couple of years, including a large jump in the past several months. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The staff continued to view the uncertainty around its projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as generally similar to the average of the past 20 years. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This observation raises the question of why, in some cases, the putative productivity benefits of investments in new technologies do not occur until years after those investments are made. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A higher rate of technical change that raises the productivity and hence the profitability of capital should elevate the value of equities. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In addition, the Committee reaffirmed its intention to keep the target federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and retained its forward guidance that it anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Because economic downturns typically result in even greater uncertainty about asset values, such episodes may involve an adverse feedback loop whereby financial disruptions cause investment and consumer spending to decline, which, in turn, causes economic activity to contract. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | First, tightening will in all likelihood occur in the context of a more firmly established economic recovery in the United States so that any adverse effects on EME financial conditions should be buffered by the beneficial effects of higher external demand. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | During much of the recovery, forecasters have been overly optimistic about growth | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Given that we have yet to experience difficulties in funding a current account deficit that exceeds 6 percent of our GDP, what are the limits to the foreign markets' absorption of claims on U.S. residents? | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Any such rise in inflation expectations and associated upward pressure on inflation itself would likely prove costly to reverse. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information and is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Indeed, just recently, the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee determined that the recession that began in March of last year ended in April, making it not only the deepest recession on record, but also the briefest.2 Moreover, with the development and distribution of several remarkably effective vaccines, the monetary and fiscal policies presently in place should continue to support the strong expansion in economic activity that is expected to be realized this year, although, obviously, the rapid spread of the Delta variant among the still considerable fraction of the population that is unvaccinated is clearly a downside risk for the outlook. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But equity prices were only holding their own after a substantial decline earlier and the dollar had appreciated. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Although the near-term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Our Congressional mandate is to achieve full employment and price stability in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | A particular phenomenon that touches on all these issues is the movement of asset prices, especially the prices of equities and residential real estate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | I will then discuss the prospects for adjusting monetary policy in the manner needed to sustain a strong job market | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With the economy at full employment and inflation far above target, we should signal that we are moving back to neutral at a fast pace based on the performance of the economy, and a 50-basis point hike would help do that. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Total nonfarm payroll employment increased at a solid pace in October and November, and the unemployment rate declined, reaching 4. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | "4 Importantly, the level of uncertainty around the paths for inflation and employment are higher than normal as we navigate the unprecedented reopening of the world economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | And I can only say qualitatively that the Committee will continue to look at the evolution of the outlook, try to assess whether unemployment is making sufficient progress towards our objectives, and, in particular, whether the recovery is still continuing. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | With capacity utilization already at high levels, relatively rapid growth in inventory investment, if it were superimposed on stronger-than- projected expansion in final demand, could portend serious pressures on resources and inflationary consequences for the economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Most analysts would contend that U.S. interest rates were lowered by the world's accumulation of dollars. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | however, apart from the energy and health care sectors, price inflation had remained relatively subdued, evidently reflecting the combination of diminished growth in overall demand and strong competitive pressures in most markets. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Several members noted the benefits of accumulating further information that could help clarify the contours of the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the need for further policy action. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | And I assure you that my colleagues and I will continue to conduct monetary policy without regard to political considerations. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | To provide some evidence for this assertion, as well as some reasons for it, I draw your attention to a speech that Chairman Greenspan made earlier this year, entitled "Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy" (Greenspan, 2004). | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | falling non-oil import prices likely subtracted 1/4 percentage point from the annual rate of core inflation.10 Finally, the trajectory of federal government debt relative to GDP and views regarding the debt's sustainability can also influence the effects of fiscal policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Long-term sovereign bond yields declined notably in the advanced economies, in part as foreign central banks announced additional monetary policy easing measures. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | What I’m telling you is that the stance of monetary policy we have today, we believe, is appropriate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, in my judgment, reliance on these two approaches is not symmetric; instead, the forecast-based approach has become increasingly dominant in the monetary policymaking of leading central banks. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | While the absence of increasing price inflation was a welcome development, members were concerned that the break with historical patterns might not persist. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | the outlook for housing activity remained favorable, given an overall economic performance in line with current forecasts of a robust expansion, related growth in incomes, and still relatively attractive mortgage interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | While a constant rate of money growth will not always be optimal, if money demand is sufficiently stable, and not particularly interest sensitive, it will pin down inflation in the long run and help smooth the business cycle in the short run. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Consumer price inflation remained subdued in November, with both the overall index and the index excluding food and energy items rising at the same relatively low rates as in October. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | we project that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation will rise gradually to our symmetric 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Inflation had been subdued, even though the prices of some key commodities had increased recently. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | So, with this coronavirus arriving, we judged that the—the net effects of this will be to—to have inflation move down even a little bit more. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Now, members of the Committee have different views about why this is likely to be true, that the funds rate—when the labor market is normalized and inflation is back to our objective—they maybe have slightly different views on exactly why it’s likely to be the case that interest rates will be a little lower than they would in the longer run. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | A number of business contacts indicated that they were passing on at least a portion of these higher costs to their customers or that they planned to try to do so later this year; however, contacts were uncertain about the extent to which they could raise prices, given current market conditions and the cautious attitudes toward spending still held by households and businesses. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In that regard, the changes in the macroeconomic environment that underlie our monetary policy review may have some implications for financial stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | But I continue to believe that the underlying rate inflation in the U.S. economy is hovering close to our 2 percent longer-run objective and, thus, that the unwelcome surge in inflation this year, once these relative price adjustments are complete and bottlenecks have unclogged, will in the end prove to be largely transitory. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | While these developments were positive, participants noted several factors that likely would continue to restrain the expansion in economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | It was possible, though, that investors' uncertainty regarding inflation prospects, not just inflation expectations themselves, had risen. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Reports from several Districts suggested that firms had greater scope than in the recent past to raise prices in response to strong demand or increases in input costs, including those associated with tariff increases and recent rises in fuel and freight expenses. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Conversely, fiscal policy expansion in the surplus countries could be used to augment domestic demand, but any such adjustments would need to take account of medium-term goals for fiscal consolidation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In contrast, under a price-level-targeting scheme, continuing deflation combined with an upward-sloping path for the price-level target causes the size of the price-level gap to increase over time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | What policy options exist to deal with the U.S. current account deficit? | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | another is the growing literature on the interaction of learning, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services widened substantially in the second quarter. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | These participants concluded that the Committee should wait to take another step in removing accommodation until the data on economic activity provided a greater level of confidence that economic growth was strong enough to withstand a possible downward shock to demand. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The literature on this topic extends at least as far back as William Brainard’s original paper on uncertainty and policy almost forty years ago.7 Brainard’s analysis showed that if policymakers are uncertain about how real activity and inflation will be affected over time by monetary actions, they should be less aggressive in responding to changes in economic conditions than would be the case if they knew the true model of the economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Participants judged that it would be appropriate to move the stance of monetary policy toward a neutral posture expeditiously. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
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