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2 | We have continued to provide guidance, the same guidance that we have for some time, that says the Committee “anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.” I know that’s a mouthful, but it says, in effect, that the Committee believes that the economic conditions that have made recovery difficult, we’re getting beyond them. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Flexible inflation averaging could bring some of the benefits of a formal average inflation targeting rule, but it would be simpler to communicate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | remained well below their levels at the beginning of the year, and that weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices had been holding down consumer price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And if we do that, inflation expectations will be right at 2 percent, and that’ll help us achieve 2 percent inflation over time and avoid the situation where the central bank loses its ability to support the economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Indeed, CPI inflation does appear to have become more sensitive to import prices over time, both in the United States and in other OECD countries (Pain, Koske, and Sollie, 2006).3 Can domestic monetary policy still control domestic interest rates and so stabilize both inflation and output? | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | While accommodative financial conditions and reduced income tax rates should continue to undergird consumer spending and the data on retail sales for July displayed relatively impressive gains, negative wealth effects from falling stock market prices, declining payrolls, and sluggish income gains--should they persist--might well depress consumer expenditures over coming months. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Fiscal policy was expected to be somewhat less expansionary next year, though still an important contributor to economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Moreover, anecdotal evidence suggested that most firms had little ability to raise their prices in the current economic environment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The median expectation for inflation over the next 5 to 10 years from the Michigan survey edged down in October to a new historical low, although it was noted that this drop could be explained by a reduction in the number of respondents who had previously expected relatively high inflation outcomes. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Models of the term structure of interest rates better fit the data under the assumption that both inflation expectations and beliefs about the central bank's reaction function are evolving (Kozicki and Tinsley, 2001; Rudebusch and Wu, 2003; Cogley, 2005). | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Once such expectations became imbedded in the economy, even stronger policy actions would be required in order to reestablish a downward trend of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Presumably even normal amortized equity that did not come from higher home prices was extracted in this manner. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | With regard to the nation as a whole, members noted that rising levels of employment and incomes were continuing to foster solid growth in consumer spending, a development that was abetted by the sharp increases that had occurred in household wealth as a consequence of the extended uptrend in stock market prices and to a lesser extent the appreciation of home prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Eventually, financial markets may develop the instruments and associated analytical techniques for unearthing these implicit changes in the price level with some precision. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The literature on this topic extends at least as far back as William Brainard’s original paper on uncertainty and policy almost forty years ago.7 Brainard’s analysis showed that if policymakers are uncertain about how real activity and inflation will be affected over time by monetary actions, they should be less aggressive in responding to changes in economic conditions than would be the case if they knew the true model of the economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Members referred, however, to a number of favorable factors that should continue to support at least moderate further growth in business investment, including the attractive pricing of and ongoing rapid technological improvements in computer and communications equipment and the wide availability of equity and debt financing on favorable terms to business firms. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As a result, growth of spending on consumer durables and houses was expected to slow; in contrast, however, overall business investment in equipment and software was projected to strengthen in response to the upward trend in replacement demand, especially for computers and software; also, continued solid economic growth abroad was expected to boost the growth of U. S. exports for some period ahead. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | These measures, along with our strong guidance on interest rates and on our balance sheet, will ensure that monetary policy will continue to support the economy until the recovery is complete. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | If we adjust the 6.7 percent headline unemployment rate for the decline in participation since February and the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate of misclassification, the unemployment rate would be 10 percent, similar to the peak following the Global Financial Crisis. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | From a policy perspective, a difficulty with all these measures is that they reflect expectations of headline inflation rather than the core inflation measures usually emphasized in the monetary policy context. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Some evidence exists that quantitative easing can stimulate the economy even when interest rates are near zero; see, for example, Christina Romer's (1992) discussion of the effects of increases in the money supply during the Great Depression in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The major reason for these significant differences in spending out of household wealth is doubtless that, while home prices do on occasion decline, large declines are rare; the general experience of homeowners is a modest, but persistent, rise in home values that is perceived to be largely permanent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In contrast, businesses cut production and employment substantially in recent months--likely reflecting, in part, inventory overhangs that persisted into the early part of the year--and fixed investment continued to contract. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Consistent with the view that recent lower inflation readings could be temporary, a number of participants mentioned the trimmed mean measure of PCE price inflation, produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which removes the influence of unusually large changes in the prices of individual items in either direction; these participants observed that the trimmed mean measure had been stable at or close to 2 percent over recent months. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | If we adjust the 6.7 percent headline unemployment rate for the decline in participation since February and the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate of misclassification, the unemployment rate would be 10 percent, similar to the peak following the Global Financial Crisis. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In April, prices of core goods and services--that is, consumer prices excluding food and energy--were unchanged for a second month. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Because his econometric analysis of the available data indicated that money demand was more stable than aggregate demand, Bill formulated a simple rule that adjusted the money growth rate in response to the observed unemployment rate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | While there were no current indications that inflation might be accelerating and no policy move was called for at this time, the members saw a need for continuing vigilance. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | This conclusion is buttressed by recent sizable increases estimated for labor productivity for the manufacturing sector, derived from a data system that, for the most part, is independent of the national accounts. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | I’m old enough to remember what very high inflation was like. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And you know, we haven’t yet—we just touched 2 percent core inflation, to pick one measure—just touched it for a few months, and then we’ve fallen back. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The monitoring range for growth of total domestic nonfinancial debt was set at 3 to 7 percent for the year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In the Committee's discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, nearly all members favored keeping the target federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent at this meeting. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, has been running close to 1½ percent. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Core price inflation was projected to rise a little over the forecast horizon, in part as a result of higher import prices but largely as a consequence of further increases in nominal labor compensation gains that would not be fully offset by growth in productivity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Rapid increases in healthcare and other insurance costs and the lagged passthrough of large increases in oil prices would tend to maintain upward pressure on prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Indeed, the website of the Central Bank of Brazil explicitly acknowledges the role of inflation in driving financial innovations that enabled firms and households to economize on cash balances in that country. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Some members nonetheless referred to indications of increasing expenditures for various categories of high-tech equipment and software, and they noted that impetus to demand from a positive outcome in the war against Iraq should have a favorable effect on business capital spending, especially if it were accompanied by a rally in the stock market. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Because an interest rate, by definition, is the exchange rate for money against non-monies, money obviously is central to monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Some participants suggested that shifts of funds from abroad into U. S. Treasury securities may have put downward pressure on term premiums; the shifts, in turn, may have reflected in part a reaction to declines in foreign sovereign yields in response to actual and anticipated monetary policy actions abroad. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In this regard the risks of rising inflation could not be dismissed, and | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | how long before it becomes a factor driving inflation? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Consumer credit continued to increase at a steady pace, with similar growth rates across credit card, automobile, and student loans. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Furthermore, policymakers hoped that additional tools at their disposal--so-called incomes policies enforced by “jawboning,” guideposts, and price and wage controls--were ready to combat and control any resulting upcreep in inflation with minimal macroeconomic cost. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | To a considerable extent, however, any uptick in inflation expectations likely represented a reversal of anticipated declines in inflation earlier this year when economic prospects had seemed weaker and survey data did not confirm any increase in long-term inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | First, such a development would ultimately call for an upward revision to the targets for money growth, so that the money growth targets would remain consistent with an unchanged target for the inflation rate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Committee Policy Action Members viewed the information on U. S. economic activity received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that the economy had been expanding moderately and generally agreed that the economic outlook was broadly similar to that at the time of their March meeting. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | the approach can be applied equally well by "inflation hawks," "growth hawks," and anyone in between. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The “extended period” language is conditioned on exactly those same points: “Extended period” is conditioned on resource slack, on subdued inflation, and on stable inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | By the way, we’re also not at maximum employment, as I mentioned. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | I don’t know that demand for reserves has risen over the past years. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Petroleum prices have been under particular pressure, reflecting not only stronger demand but also risks that supplies could be constrained by terrorism or political disruption. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The Committee then turned to a discussion of the economic and financial outlook and the implementation of monetary policy over the intermeeting period ahead. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Although inflation remained remarkably subdued and any increase in inflationary pressures likely would tend to emerge only slowly, the strength in demand had developed against the backdrop of financial conditions that, broadly considered, were not substantially different from those now prevailing. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | This approach adds to what we have learned from earlier papers that have examined the performance of unconventional policy tools with respect to individual components of financial conditions—most notably, long-term sovereign yields, but also mortgage rates, equities, exchange rates, and corporate debt spreads.3 Empirically assessing the question in the report is not only important, but also challenging, as the report readily acknowledges. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Over the medium term, participants expected strong growth in employment, driven by continued progress on vaccinations and an associated rebound of economic activity and of consumer and business confidence, as well as accommodative fiscal and monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Slump in foreign domestic demand I would like to turn now to developments at the global level that may have helped to widen the U.S. current account deficit. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Although readings on core inflation had improved modestly since the spring, nearly all participants viewed core inflation as uncomfortably high and stressed the importance of further moderation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Several participants noted ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector, including those associated with increased trade uncertainty, weak export demand, and the effects of wet weather and severe flooding. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | One might even argue that if a central bank ever converged on a single monetary rule, there would be no need for a monetary policy committee. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | First, the projected rates of productivity gains and potential output growth over the medium term were trimmed. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | For the United States, for example, the figure highlights the long run-up and subsequent fall in asset prices before the 2001 recession. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Everyone, particularly people on fixed incomes, and at the lower part of the income distribution are better off with stable prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | To be sure, the prices of assets and the level of debt seem to reflect expectations of a benign economic environment--one in which policy will tighten only gradually, the economy will continue to strengthen and inflation will remain low, and the demand for houses and equities will remain solid. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Because good forecasts are so crucial to good monetary policy, I hope and expect to see a great deal more work exploring the robustness of alternative forecasting methods. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Indeed, few long-term inflation forecasts in any country currently exceed 5 percent, although Venezuela provides one counterexample, with a long-term inflation forecast now of 15 percent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Significant cost cutting by firms was thought to have led to a sizable increase in productivity growth in the first half of the year | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | No matter the near-term path of reducing accommodation, the FOMC must respond decisively to the data so as to maintain our credibility that we will bring down inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | It would consist of inflation plus—plus productivity growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The unemployment rate was unchanged over the period between the April and June meetings, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Foreign economic growth declined in the second quarter. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes that the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Models of the term structure of interest rates better fit the data under the assumption that both inflation expectations and beliefs about the central bank's reaction function are evolving (Kozicki and Tinsley, 2001; Rudebusch and Wu, 2003; Cogley, 2005). | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | It was not only capital spending and equity prices that seemed to overshoot in the late 1990s; credit was provided with undue optimism about prospects for repayment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | This was a somewhat sharper effect than was anticipated at the beginning of the year and accounts for a small part of the forecast error on inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today.1 I look forward to our conversation, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | If this high-pressure management inadvertently carried the economy beyond its productive potential, some cost in terms of inflation could be expected, but such costs appeared tolerable in light of the employment gains that came with them. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The delays often reflected concerns about the putative costs and risks of these policies, such as stoking high inflation and impairing market functioning. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Required down payments, usually about half of the home's purchase price, excluded many households from the market. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Federal Reserve’s response is guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, along with our responsibilities to promote the stability of the financial system. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | So that’s the kind of thinking we’ll be doing, and, again, we’re looking—ultimately, we’re not going to declare victory until we see a series of these, really see convincing evidence, compelling evidence, that inflation is coming down. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Nevertheless, most participants agreed that, although the level of inventories of unsold homes that homebuilders desired was uncertain, the correction of the housing sector was likely to continue to weigh heavily on economic activity through most of this year--somewhat longer than previously expected. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | This secular decline in term premiums since 1990 appears to be correlated with the decline in long-run inflation uncertainty and in short-term interest rate uncertainty. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In contrast, the dollar appreciated against the AFE currencies, reflecting continued divergence in monetary policy expectations for the United States and AFEs as well as political uncertainty in Europe. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Employment had risen a little, but not enough to lower the unemployment rate, and labor productivity seemed to be trending sharply upward. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Another participant mentioned, however, that recent sluggish growth of the monetary aggregates suggested that the stance of policy was not overly accommodative. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Consumer price inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent, restrained in part by earlier decreases in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Pressures on resources would rise as the anticipated upturn and possible above-trend growth brought the economy closer to full capacity utilization. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | For example, although a number of features of Brazilian law promote the independence of the nation's central bank, the bank's de facto independence may be limited by the power of the president to remove members of the Monetary Policy Committee. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Several members noted the benefits of accumulating further information that could help clarify the contours of the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the need for further policy action. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | It will likely take even longer than that for the unemployment rate to return to a level consistent with our maximum-employment mandate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | This linkage establishes one important connection between the FOMC's target funds rate and interest rates more broadly. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Readings on consumer price inflation had picked up somewhat mainly because of increases in oil and gasoline prices earlier in the year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | For equities, a stock's price-earnings ratio is a standard benchmark for assessing valuation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In their consideration of the appropriate stance of monetary policy, participants concurred that the labor market was very tight and that inflation was far above the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Even so, the growth of investment spending over this period noticeably outpaced the rise in retained earnings, and thus these corporations turned to the capital markets to fill the widening gap. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And—and we do that with measures that—that, you know, keep people in their homes; that—that support hiring; that support growth; that avoid unnecessary, avoidable business insolvencies. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
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