Split (2)

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2	The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services narrowed somewhat in August from a high rate in July; however, for the two months combined, the deficit was considerably wider than its average rate for the second quarter.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	While the current episode has not yet concluded, it appears that, responding vigorously in a relatively flexible economy to the aftermath of bubbles, as traumatic as that may be, is less inhibiting to long-term growth than chronic high-inflation monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The staff forecast prepared for this meeting continued to suggest that the expansion would gradually moderate from its currently elevated pace to a rate around, or perhaps a little below, the growth of the economy's estimated potential.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	My impression is that most investors agree that the change is an improvement in openness and transparency of monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The Committee directs the Desk to purchase agency debt, agency MBS, and longer-term Treasury securities during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	"The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Germany and Japan--whose economies have been growing slowly despite very low interest rates--have not.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In general, participants viewed recent consumer price developments as consistent with their expectation that inflation was on a trajectory to achieve the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective on a sustained basis.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Well, our policy approach doesn’t involve intentionally trying to raise inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Looking ahead, some growth in overall consumer spending appeared likely in association with the now more firmly entrenched economic expansion.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Nonetheless, employment is still 9.5 million below its pre-pandemic level for the economy as a whole.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Ensuring that every American has the chance to improve his or her economic circumstances through hard work, saving, entrepreneurship, and other productive activities is essential for building healthy communities and achieving sustainable economic growth.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The cutback in residential construction has directly reduced the annual rate of U.S. economic growth about 3/4 percentage point on average over the past year and a half.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	When, when you get to—in, in the forecast, all of that, you know, supply and demand sides of the economy adapt.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In a traditional growth accounting setup, these effects would show up in multifactor productivity growth.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Misconceptions about Inflation Targeting I would like to turn now, briefly, to comment on a few key misconceptions about inflation targeting that have gained some currency in the public debate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Participants expected that productivity growth would pick up as firms slowed hiring to a pace more in line with output growth but acknowledged that the improvement might be limited, particularly if business investment spending were to remain soft.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	That said, many of my colleagues and I would see a portion of the decline in the unemployment rate as perhaps not representing a diminution of slack in the labor market.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Similarly, measures of underlying inflation continued to be somewhat low relative to levels seen as consistent with the dual mandate over the longer run.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Households' longer-term inflation expectations also edged up in both November and December.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Survey measures of expected future inflation were fairly stable, but some market-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation risk suggested continuing concern among market participants about the risk of higher medium-term inflation, perhaps reflecting large fiscal deficits and the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Future policy adjustments would depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Regarding the ELB, the previous statement was silent on the global decline in neutral policy rates, the likelihood that the ELB will constrain monetary policy space in economic downturns, and the implications of this constraint for our ability to achieve our dual-mandate goals.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	On the other hand, including a reference risked the possibility of suggesting greater concern on the part of the Committee than was actually the case, perhaps leading to the misimpression that monetary policy was likely to respond to increases in volatility.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	We need to avoid expectations rising so much that they become a factor that drives inflation higher.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Staff Economic Outlook In the forecast prepared for the March FOMC meeting, the staff's outlook for real economic activity was broadly similar to that at the time of the January meeting.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Nearly all measures of total and core prices had decelerated over the past year, and in the context of forecasts implying a continued sizable gap between actual and potential output, the risk that inflationary pressures would intensify significantly over coming quarters appeared to be quite limited	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	While there were no current indications that inflation might be accelerating and no policy move was called for at this time, the members saw a need for continuing vigilance.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The producer price index for core intermediate materials dropped for a fifth month in February, reflecting, in part, weaker global demand and steep declines in the prices of a wide variety of energy-intensive goods, such as chemicals and plastics.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Job growth last month was fairly widespread, although heavy hiring in the construction sector was due partly to efforts to repair damage from the four hurricanes that hit the southeastern states.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	If the recent slower rate of price declines on high-tech products implied a softer underlying pace of technological change, both the outlook for investment demand and the prospects for persisting high trend growth in productivity could be damped relative to previous expectations.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	So the FOMC will always, in some sense, trump the projections of forward interest rates, but clearly, because the participants and the people around the table are the same, the projections should give significant information about where the FOMC is likely to go.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	maintaining low and stable inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Survey measures of expected future inflation were fairly stable,	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	This paper develops and estimates a habit persistence consumption asset pricing model in which the sign of the equilibrium covariance between equity and bond returns depends on the reduced-form correlation between inflation and the output gap, the correlation between the federal funds rate and the output gap, as well as the equilibrium persistence of inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	You know, what you hear out there is that demand—you talk to banks, and they’ll say demand for loans is very, very low right now.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Despite the substantial monetary easing that had been implemented already and the fiscal stimulus, including federal tax rebates, that was in train, the forecast anticipated that sluggish hiring and the decline in household wealth would restrain the growth of both consumer spending and housing demand.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	It was the year of synchronized global growth.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	such developments underlined persisting uncertainties about behavior in labor markets and the level and growth of the economy's sustainable potential.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	An upside risk was that inflation could increase more than expected in an economy that was projected to move further above its potential.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Furthermore, in the latest report, FOMC participants indicated that the current degree of uncertainty about GDP growth is even higher than the typical level of uncertainty over the past two decades.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Despite some recent turbulence, owing in part to geopolitical events, stock prices have logged robust gains over the past 3-1/2 years, and broad equity indices have now retraced most of the ground lost between 2000 and 2002.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	I would describe some measures of wage growth as having moved up some.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In the September Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms (SCOOS), dealers indicated, on net, that they loosened credit terms applicable to several important classes of counterparties and types of collateral over the past three months amid increased demand for funding for most types of securities covered in the survey.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Returning to monetary policy, we recognize that there has been a great deal of focus on today’s policy decision.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	We have a 2 percent symmetric inflation objective, and, for a number of years now, inflation has been running under 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In this case headline inflation will rise well above its underlying trend as the price of energy rises but will soon fall well below its underlying trend as the price of energy falls back to its initial level.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	But you didn’t under the merely adverse scenario, which featured an inflation shock followed by a quick rise in short-term rates.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The downside risks from the possibility that longer-term inflation expectations may have edged down or that the dollar could appreciate substantially were seen as roughly counterbalanced by the upside risk that inflation could increase more than expected in an economy that was projected to continue operating above its longer-run potential.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	An upside risk was that inflation could increase more than expected in an economy that was projected to move further above its potential.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Using more-conventional specifications of Phillips curves, the research at the Federal Reserve Board (Ihrig and others, 2007) and the OECD (Pain, Koske, and Sollie, 2006), as well as Ball (2006), finds that foreign output gaps are not important determinants of domestic inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The behavior of the monetary aggregates will continue to be evaluated in the light of progress toward price level stability, movements in their velocities, and developments in the economy and financial markets.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	These headwinds—which include developments abroad, subdued household formation, and meager productivity growth—could persist for some time.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	With home prices depressed, housing construction was quite subdued and seen as likely to remain so, while investment in nonresidential structures remained low.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Though labor markets were expected to remain relatively tight for some time, the members saw little prospect that inflation would gather significant momentum in coming quarters.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	And I can only say qualitatively that the Committee will continue to look at the evolution of the outlook, try to assess whether unemployment is making sufficient progress towards our objectives, and, in particular, whether the recovery is still continuing.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	If the public expects that inflation will remain low and stable over time, then, absent major shocks, it likely will.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	A number of participants stressed that recently enacted fiscal support would help address some of the hardships faced by these groups and that monetary policy would also help by promoting the economy's return to the Committee's goals of broad-based and inclusive maximum employment and price stability.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Consumer food prices were little changed in August.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Indeed, economic growth abroad was widely viewed as dependent to a significant extent on the performance of the U. S. economy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In 1951, the Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord freed the Fed from the obligation to support Treasury bond prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	But change is hard and not everyone is willing or able to pay the price.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Consumer sentiment was at or close to historically high levels according to recent surveys, evidently reflecting the strong uptrend in employment and income and to some extent the very large cumulative increase in stock market wealth over the course of recent years.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	August 26, 2022 Monetary Policy and Price Stability Chair Jerome H. Powell At â€œReassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy,â€ an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming Share Watch Live Thank you for the opportunity to speak here today.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Rents have grown dramatically, and while home sales have slowed, the continued increasing price of single-family homes indicates to me that rents won't decline anytime in the near future.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	For example, Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei (2003) have used modern financial theory to construct a model of the Treasury yield curve that closely links the behavior of real GDP and a few key interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Residential MBS yields and residential mortgage interest rates declined, on net, over the intermeeting period to historically low levels, but their spreads to yields on long-term Treasury securities increased.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Potentially, waiting could require more disruptive policy tightening actions later and could risk the credibility of the System's anti-inflation policy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Operating Strategies and the FOMC Meeting Now that we appreciate the challenging nature of monetary policy, we are ready to develop a strategy for implementing open market operations.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	That interdependence suggests that monetary policy makers must pay attention to conditions abroad as well as at home.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Consumer price inflation, as measured by the 12-month percentage change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), was below 2 percent in July.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Although the near-term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	not to target asset prices (or exchange rates).	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	On balance, while the business investment outlook seemed vulnerable to somewhat greater than projected weakness in the short run, the members were persuaded that, against the background of large continuing gains in structural productivity and cost savings from further investment in equipment and software, business firms were likely to accelerate their spending for new capital after a period of adjustment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Nowhere, however, is the challenge to monetary policymakers greater than in emerging economies around the world.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Although I expect these upward price pressures to ease after the temporary supply bottlenecks are resolved, the exact timing of that dynamic is uncertain.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Later I shall turn to concerns about imbalances in equity prices, the personal saving rate, the current account, and the household debt burden.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The period of sub-par expansion was expected to foster an appreciable easing of pressures on resources and some moderation in core price inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Everyone, particularly people on fixed incomes, and at the lower part of the income distribution are better off with stable prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Moreover, the absence of significant growth in employment, should it persist, could at some point have significant adverse repercussions on consumer spending.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In keeping with its usual procedures under the Humphrey-Hawkins Act, the Committee would review its ranges at midyear, or sooner if interim conditions warranted, in light of the growth and velocity behavior of the aggregates and ongoing economic and financial developments.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	A number of global factors were seen as contributing to downward pressure on term premiums, including central bank asset purchase programs and the strong worldwide demand for safe assets.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	As a result, deregulation, globalization, and innovation have made it easier for citizens to move their wealth out of nominal assets in their local currency and thereby avoid any inflation tax should their government show signs that it might resort to inflationary tactics to finance spending.6 At the same time, the publicâ€™s understanding of the costs of inflation has increased, in part because of experiences of high inflation in many countries in the 1980s.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Given the pressure of a considerable amount of unused resources, any adverse developments that held down economic expansion would increase the probability of further disinflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In its March forecast, the staff's projection for real GDP growth over the medium term was somewhat higher than the one presented in January, mostly reflecting an improved outlook for economic activity abroad, a lower foreign exchange value for the dollar, and a higher projected path of equity prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	So tonight, I would like to take a few minutes to put this action in the broad context of the Fed’s mandate to promote the stable financial environment that will encourage economic growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Notwithstanding these developments, some participants cautioned that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective should not be overstated; they noted that inflation had been persistently below 2 percent during the current economic expansion and that core inflation on a 12-month basis was little changed in recent months at a level below 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	and that given the downside risks to economic growth, an early exit could unnecessarily damp the ongoing economic recovery.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	It is true that changes in longer-term interest rates in the United States—but also in other advanced economies—does have some effect on emerging markets, particularly those who are trying to peg their exchange rate, and can lead to some capital inflows or outflows.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	As far as—as the policy rate, what we’ve said is that we will maintain the rate at this level until we’re confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The simplest answer is that interest rates should vary to imitate qualitatively the way they would behave if the Fed were implementing a money supply target.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The household saving rate, which had already risen considerably, would eventually level out and cease to hold back consumption growth.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Survey and market measures of long-term inflation expectations did not suggest that the earlier higher inflation readings were going to persist.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	With about $250 billion of these inflation-protected securities now outstanding, we can get readings along the entire maturity structure of real interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	If a range is selected, questions will arise about the differing implications of movements of inflation inside the range and outside the range and, in the absence of explicitly identifying the mid-point as the target, about where within the range policymakers would prefer inflation to gravitate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	However, I can provide you with some insight into the way the FOMC functions and the impact of monetary policy on the U.S. and global economies.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Employment continued to expand unevenly, while labor productivity remained on a strong upward trend.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.

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