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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Exactly.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:22:43.080
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I mean, we can get, for example,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:22:44.200
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
issues like simulated biology,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:22:46.320
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
where it can simulate many different things at once.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:22:48.120
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
We already had one example of simulated biology,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:22:56.760
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which is the Moderna vaccine.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:22:59.600
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And that's gonna be now
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
the way in which we create medications.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:06.600
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But they were able to simulate
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:11.160
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
what each example of an mRNA would do to a human being,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:13.000
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and they were able to simulate that quite reliably.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:17.760
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And we actually simulated billions
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
of different mRNA sequences,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:23.960
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and they found the ones that were the best,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:27.040
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and they created the vaccine.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:29.000
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And they did, and talked about doing that quickly,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
they did that in two days.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:34.120
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Now, how long would a human being take
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
to simulate billions of different mRNA sequences?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:37.880
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I don't know that we could do it at all,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:41.000
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
but it would take many years.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:42.840
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
They did it in two days, and one of the reasons
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that people didn't like vaccines
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:50.000
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
is because it was done too quickly,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
it was done too fast.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:55.520
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And they actually included the time it took to test it out,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:58.200
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which was 10 months, so they figured,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:01.280
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
okay, it took 10 months to create this.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:03.600
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Actually, it took us two days.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:06.320
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And we also will be able to ultimately do the tests
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
in a few days as well.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:11.880
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Oh, because we can simulate how the body will respond to it.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:14.200
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Yeah, that's a little bit more complicated
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:16.600
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
because the body has a lot of different elements,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:19.120
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and we have to simulate all of that,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
but that's coming as well.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:25.400
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So ultimately, we could create it in a few days
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:27.520
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and then test it in a few days, and it would be done.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And we can do that with every type
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
of medical insufficiency that we have.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So curing all diseases, improving certain functions
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
of the body, supplements, drugs for recreation,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:46.680
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
for health, for performance, for productivity,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
all that kind of stuff.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:56.080
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Well, that's where we're headed,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:56.920
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
because I mean, right now we have a very inefficient way
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
of creating these new medications.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:00.640
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But we've already shown it, and the Moderna vaccine
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:04.560
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
is actually the best of the vaccines we've had,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:07.120
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and it literally took two days to create.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:12.520
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And we'll get to the point
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:16.280
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
where we can test it out also quickly.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:17.200
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Are you impressed by AlphaFold
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:20.160
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and the solution to the protein folding,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which essentially is simulating, modeling
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:25.760
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
this primitive building block of life,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:30.040
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which is a protein, and its 3D shape?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:33.080
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
It's pretty remarkable that they can actually predict
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:36.080
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
what the 3D shape of these things are,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:39.040
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
but they did it with the same type of neural net
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:42.000
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that won, for example, the Go test.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:45.920
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So it's all the same.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:51.240
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
It's all the same.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:52.720
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
All the same approaches.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:53.560
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
They took that same thing and just changed the rules
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
to chess, and within a couple of days,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
it now played a master level of chess
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
greater than any human being.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:03.960
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And the same thing then worked for AlphaFold,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which no human had done.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I mean, human beings could do,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
the best humans could maybe do 15, 20%
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
of figuring out what the shape would be.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And after a few takes, it ultimately did just about 100%.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
100%.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:30.840
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Do you still think the singularity will happen in 2045?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And what does that look like?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Once we can amplify our brain with computers directly,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:40.760
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which will happen in the 2030s,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that's gonna keep growing.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:48.080
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
That's another whole theme,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which is the exponential growth of computing power.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:51.040
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Yeah, so looking at price performance of computation
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
from 1939 to 2021.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:57.520
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Right, so that starts with the very first computer
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
actually created by a German during World War II.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:02.920
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
You might have thought that that might be significant,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
but actually the Germans didn't think computers
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
were significant, and they completely rejected it.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
The second one is also the ZUSA 2.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:16.640
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And by the way, we're looking at a plot
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
with the X axis being the year from 1935 to 2025.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And on the Y axis in log scale
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
is computation per second per constant dollar.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So dollar normalized inflation.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And it's growing linearly on the log scale,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which means it's growing exponentially.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
The third one was the British computer,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which the Allies did take very seriously.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And it cracked the German code
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