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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Exactly. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:22:43.080 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | I mean, we can get, for example, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:22:44.200 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | issues like simulated biology, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:22:46.320 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | where it can simulate many different things at once. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:22:48.120 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | We already had one example of simulated biology, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:22:56.760 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | which is the Moderna vaccine. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:22:59.600 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And that's gonna be now | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:04.560 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | the way in which we create medications. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:06.600 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | But they were able to simulate | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:11.160 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | what each example of an mRNA would do to a human being, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:13.000 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and they were able to simulate that quite reliably. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:17.760 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And we actually simulated billions | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:21.400 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | of different mRNA sequences, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:23.960 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and they found the ones that were the best, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:27.040 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and they created the vaccine. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:29.000 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And they did, and talked about doing that quickly, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:31.040 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | they did that in two days. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:34.120 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Now, how long would a human being take | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:36.280 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | to simulate billions of different mRNA sequences? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:37.880 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | I don't know that we could do it at all, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:41.000 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | but it would take many years. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:42.840 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | They did it in two days, and one of the reasons | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:45.800 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | that people didn't like vaccines | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:50.000 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | is because it was done too quickly, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:53.720 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | it was done too fast. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:55.520 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And they actually included the time it took to test it out, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:23:58.200 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | which was 10 months, so they figured, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:01.280 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | okay, it took 10 months to create this. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:03.600 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Actually, it took us two days. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:06.320 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And we also will be able to ultimately do the tests | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:09.080 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | in a few days as well. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:11.880 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Oh, because we can simulate how the body will respond to it. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:14.200 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Yeah, that's a little bit more complicated | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:16.600 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | because the body has a lot of different elements, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:19.120 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and we have to simulate all of that, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:22.920 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | but that's coming as well. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:25.400 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | So ultimately, we could create it in a few days | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:27.520 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and then test it in a few days, and it would be done. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:30.240 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And we can do that with every type | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:34.040 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | of medical insufficiency that we have. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:35.960 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | So curing all diseases, improving certain functions | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:40.240 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | of the body, supplements, drugs for recreation, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:46.680 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | for health, for performance, for productivity, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:53.120 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | all that kind of stuff. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:56.080 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Well, that's where we're headed, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:56.920 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | because I mean, right now we have a very inefficient way | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:24:58.040 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | of creating these new medications. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:00.640 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | But we've already shown it, and the Moderna vaccine | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:04.560 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | is actually the best of the vaccines we've had, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:07.120 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and it literally took two days to create. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:12.520 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And we'll get to the point | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:16.280 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | where we can test it out also quickly. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:17.200 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Are you impressed by AlphaFold | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:20.160 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and the solution to the protein folding, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:22.280 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | which essentially is simulating, modeling | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:25.760 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | this primitive building block of life, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:30.040 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | which is a protein, and its 3D shape? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:33.080 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | It's pretty remarkable that they can actually predict | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:36.080 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | what the 3D shape of these things are, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:39.040 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | but they did it with the same type of neural net | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:42.000 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | that won, for example, the Go test. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:45.920 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | So it's all the same. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:51.240 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | It's all the same. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:52.720 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | All the same approaches. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:53.560 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | They took that same thing and just changed the rules | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:54.400 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | to chess, and within a couple of days, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:25:57.080 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | it now played a master level of chess | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:01.640 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | greater than any human being. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:03.960 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And the same thing then worked for AlphaFold, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:09.160 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | which no human had done. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:13.480 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | I mean, human beings could do, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:14.800 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | the best humans could maybe do 15, 20% | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:16.800 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | of figuring out what the shape would be. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:22.640 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And after a few takes, it ultimately did just about 100%. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:25.840 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | 100%. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:30.840 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Do you still think the singularity will happen in 2045? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:32.560 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And what does that look like? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:37.560 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Once we can amplify our brain with computers directly, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:40.760 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | which will happen in the 2030s, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:46.600 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | that's gonna keep growing. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:48.080 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | That's another whole theme, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:49.800 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | which is the exponential growth of computing power. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:51.040 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Yeah, so looking at price performance of computation | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:54.960 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | from 1939 to 2021. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:57.520 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Right, so that starts with the very first computer | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:26:59.800 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | actually created by a German during World War II. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:02.920 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | You might have thought that that might be significant, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:06.560 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | but actually the Germans didn't think computers | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:09.440 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | were significant, and they completely rejected it. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:12.880 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | The second one is also the ZUSA 2. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:16.640 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And by the way, we're looking at a plot | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:20.360 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | with the X axis being the year from 1935 to 2025. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:22.240 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And on the Y axis in log scale | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:27.240 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | is computation per second per constant dollar. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:30.920 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | So dollar normalized inflation. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:34.680 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And it's growing linearly on the log scale, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:37.720 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | which means it's growing exponentially. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:40.200 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | The third one was the British computer, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:41.880 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | which the Allies did take very seriously. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:44.480 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And it cracked the German code | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:47.720 |
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