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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Anyone randomly dealt, right?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:16.180
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
But let's say now that that player raised to $3,000.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:18.100
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Okay, well you can eliminate now from this grid,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:22.140
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
a whole bunch of hands that this player can no longer have
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:24.580
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
because if they had a two and a three,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:27.200
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
they wouldn't do that.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:28.580
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So you can say, okay, he probably has a big pair.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:29.840
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
He has ace king.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:32.500
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
You know, you've narrowed the range of hands down, right?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:33.700
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Now through every action on the flop,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:36.740
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
on the turn and on the river,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:38.980
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
based on the decisions they make,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:40.180
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you narrow it down even further.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:41.820
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So the range of hands is the whole,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
the entirety of all the possibilities
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:46.940
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
that this player you believe could have.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:48.780
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And sometimes they fool you
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:50.260
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
or they have a hand that you don't expect them
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
to have in their range.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:53.220
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And you know, maybe a little bit unorthodox
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:54.280
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
doing some things you don't expect to throw you off,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:56.980
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
but a range is essentially all the possibilities
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:09:59.340
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and it narrows as by the time,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:01.940
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
before the flop it's endless,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:03.420
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
player raises, okay, it's minimized.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:05.140
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
You know, a player bets the flop,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:07.260
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
okay, it's minimized further.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:08.420
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And then by the river, you know,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:09.540
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you can narrow down the entire range to, you know,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:11.020
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
just maybe even a few hands.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:13.900
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Is it always shrinking or is there sort of,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:15.140
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
as you get surprised?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:17.860
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I mean, it's always just an estimate.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:19.500
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So does it ever expand based on sort of chaotic,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:21.420
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
unpredicted surprising behavior of the players?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:24.740
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
It really should never expand.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:29.060
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
The range of hands should always get smaller, right?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:30.700
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Like again, we start with the full scope
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:32.660
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and then you should factor in like, okay,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:35.180
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
these are all the possible hands
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:37.020
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you can have on the flop now, right?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:37.980
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
We can't have new hands on the turn.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:39.960
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And if you get to that point where you think,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:41.980
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
oh, well, maybe he has this hand,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:44.260
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
then you sort of misjudged his range prior.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:45.940
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So you're not thinking clearly.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:49.040
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
It should always shrink from the full scope to, you know,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:50.460
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
hopefully just a couple.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:54.600
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Well, in that video, you also talk about,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:55.640
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
it used to be that you would play your hand,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:57.660
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
but now you're playing a range
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:10:59.780
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
that you're representing a range.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:02.080
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
You're not even just playing your hand.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:03.580
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So what does it mean to represent a certain range?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:05.660
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Yeah, so that's another big thing
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:08.740
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
that's different about poker from, you know,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:09.940
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
my day to today is that back in our day,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:11.480
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
we would like put people on one hand.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:13.860
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I'm like, you probably have king nine
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:15.540
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
or you have jacks or something like that.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:17.300
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Now people are cognizant of the idea
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:19.220
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
that you could have an entire range of hands.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:21.180
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So then you ask yourself in situations,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:23.020
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
all right, I know what I have,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:24.820
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
but what I could have in his mind
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:26.620
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
or my opponent's mind is any one of these hands.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:29.140
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
What would I do with the entirety of these hands?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:31.300
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And so a lot of people that are trying to play optimally,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:34.020
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you know, game theory optimal,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:36.260
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
they think in terms of what their range of hands would do
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:37.700
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
rather than their very specific hand.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:41.260
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So is bluffing in that context
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:43.760
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
essentially misrepresenting the range of hands that you have?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:46.060
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
No. Is that how you think about it?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:49.900
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Not exactly, because so an optimal range,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:51.160
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
like if I bet the river,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:53.220
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
if I'm playing game theory optimal,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:54.620
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
a portion of my range is going to be, I have it.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:56.620
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I got the best hand.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:11:59.040
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And a portion of my range is going to be bluffs
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:00.140
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and they'll be balanced.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:01.860
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So in theory, no matter what you do,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:03.380
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
no matter what you do, if you call or you fold,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:05.780
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
in theory, it's just, you're printing a zero, as we say,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:08.120
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you're not gaining or losing any EV,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:11.620
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
if you were to do it that way.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:14.460
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
What's EV?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:15.380
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
EV is expected value, right?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:16.280
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So every play that you make,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:18.140
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you know, it either is going to in the long run,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:19.780
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you know, make you some money,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:21.960
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
or it's just a losing play.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:22.980
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And as a professional,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:24.380
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you try to make the fewest amount of minus EV plays you can.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:25.340
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And the only reason you would make these minus EV plays
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:29.180
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
is potentially if you were trying to set up your opponent
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:31.860
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
for something later, right?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:34.140
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So I might make some minus EV plays, right?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:35.740
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So that I can exploit you later, right?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:38.660
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So you're building up an image,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:40.500