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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and say, all right, well, you know,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:16:26.640
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
if I was playing against the robot, I would do X,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:16:28.480
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
but I'm not, I'm playing against you.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So I have to adjust.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So does game theory optimal only look at the betting
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and the hands in the current hand
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
or does it look at the history?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So if you were to play optimally, optimally,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
would you need to look at the history
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
of the individual players
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
or just every hand is taken afresh?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
See, that's why I love playing exploitatively
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
for the most part, because with GTO,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
anything that's happened in the past
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
has no bearing on this situation.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
It's simply based on what is the optimal play
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
in a vacuum in this spot.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Whereas exploitatively, okay,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
this guy bluffs way too much in these spots.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So now I can make an adjustment and call more, you know,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
based on past information.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
GTO doesn't take into account history at all.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So like in a tournament,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
how quickly can you construct a player profile
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
that you've never played before?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Depends on the level of the buy in really, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So the higher the buy in, generally speaking,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you can assume if they're professionals,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
that they're gonna have pretty similar profiles
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
because you know, everyone's playing,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you know, if you're playing this game well,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
it looks similar, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
At the lower levels, you know,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
playing say in $1,000 or $1,500 buy in or less,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you know, within a half an hour or an hour,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I have an idea of all right,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
just by seeing how some players played a few hands that,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you know, so here's the thing with poker,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
it's like, I can see one clue of what he did.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And it tells me so much about what he'll do
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
in a vast number of scenarios.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And you're saying at the high level,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
people don't give too many clues.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I mean, then.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Well, at the highest level is,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
people are so much more similar
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
in terms of their style of play.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
They try to find some kind of balance between the GTO.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And now with all that we've seen on TV, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Like people get to watch streams and whatever.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So you get to watch all the top players play.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So if you wanna learn how to play better,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
guess what you do?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
You copy what they're doing, essentially.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Like, oh, he's only raising this much.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I'm gonna do the same.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
They're betting this much.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I'm gonna do the same.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So as a result,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
what you end up having is sort of,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you know, everyone deciding.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Like, I guess it's similar in chess with openings, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
People figure out, okay, this is an opening.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
This is what you do.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And that's it, you know?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And then everyone's similar to that.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And then you have, of course, the outliers
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
who try to do things a little differently
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and confuse people.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
It seems like the outliers,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
like we talked offline that Magnus,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
in order to win Magnus Carlsen,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
has to play suboptimally in the openings
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
to take his opponents out of the comfort zone
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
so he can play what he calls pure chess
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
as quickly as possible,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
which is just both short and deep calculations.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Purely, you're looking at the board
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
versus memorized openings and memorized lines.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Is it the case that the best poker players
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
are the ones that are able to, at the right time,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
play really suboptimally or really unorthodox?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Yeah, specifically there's one guy
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
who last year sort of took the poker world by storm,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and his name was Michael Adamo.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And he was doing things, like I said,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you know, most of the top pros play very similarly
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
with the way that they construct ranges
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and their bet sizing and all these kinds of things.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
He was doing some crazy things
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
that nobody else was doing.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So he studied sort of a different form of poker
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and it was unorthodox.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And it, you know, it throws people off
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
because he's in his comfort zone
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
with these bet sizes and different things,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
whereas everyone else,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
they're not well studied in those spots.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So as a result of him being unorthodox,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
he became like a monster and very difficult to play against
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