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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
a player profile that's false in some way.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:42.720
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Something that I'm going to,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:45.500
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I'm going to plant seeds in your mind
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:46.340
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
so that I can exploit them later.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:48.000
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So for example, why would players like show a big bluff?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:49.560
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Like what would be the reason for that?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
They show a big bluff
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
so that you know that they're capable of it.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:12:55.620
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
But maybe in their mind,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you're never going to do that again.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
But now they think, you know, he bluffed me last time.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Maybe he's doing it again.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
But that's a, what we call like a level, a leveling war.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Because it, you know, you can go back and forth
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
with whether or not, okay, this guy might know that.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Like he showed a bluff
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
because he's never going to bluff me again.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So that that's where it gets a little.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So that's a little bit different.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
The, when we're talking about hand rangers,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:13:17.940
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
that's different than building up a mental model
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
of what your opponents,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
what your opponents think of you
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and what your opponents think that you think of them
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
and so on and so forth.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Are you trying to construct those kinds of mental models?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And is that separate from the hand rangers?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
They go hand in hand, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So if any given, in a given situation, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
My range has this many value hands and this many bluffs.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Okay?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So in theory, if I want to be balanced, you know,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
this is my range and this is what it looks like.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:13:48.260
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I'll bet this 50% of the time, bet this 50% of the time.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:13:49.920
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
However, if I know that you think that I bluff too much,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
right, then I'm not going to bluff as much.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I'm going to start,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
instead of betting these hands that I would 50, 50,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
now what I'll do is I'll do like 70, 30,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
where I'm basically value betting
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
most of the time against you, you know, or vice versa.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
If I know you always fold because you think I have it,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I'm going to veer the other way.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And instead of bluffing 50%,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I'll bluff 70, 80% of the time
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
to take advantage of your perception of me.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So to be successful,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
do you have to construct a solid model of all the players
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
in the game or can you ignore them?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I think it's really important.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Like when I play, I have in my phone,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:14:27.920
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I have a player profile of everyone that I play with.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Whenever I pick up, whether it's physical tells
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
or tendencies they like to, you know, that they have.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And overall, that's just going to, you know,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
that's going to allow you to exploit more, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So like if I played with somebody I've never played before,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:14:43.840
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
I'm probably just going to play optimally
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
or at least as optimal as I know how until I start to,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you know, gain some information on that player
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:14:51.640
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
so that I can start to exploit them.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:14:53.360
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So what's the, when you say optimally,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:14:55.500
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
what does optimally mean versus,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:14:57.420
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
so game theory optimal versus exploitative?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:14:59.520
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Yeah, so that's like sort of the big debate in poker.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:15:04.400
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
We call it for short,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:15:06.640
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
GTO game theory optimal versus exploitative play.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:15:07.800
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So GTO game theory optimal is the idea that no,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:15:11.560
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
like I'm going to set up my play
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
so that no matter what you do, you cannot exploit me.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:15:16.920
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So essentially that's playing rock, paper, scissors, right?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And throwing 33% of each every time, right?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:15:23.960
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Nothing you do can beat that, nothing.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:15:27.640
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
You'll never be able to beat that, right?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:15:29.920
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Exploitative play is starting to notice that, okay,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
well, you know what?
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
This guy loves rock.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
He loves playing rock.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So I'm going to go paper a little more.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So I'm going to take advantage of them.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So I won't be through, but now all of a sudden,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
when I do that, I'm no longer playing optimal
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
because if you knew that I was making that adjustment,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
now you can exploit me.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So that's where the sort of what we call
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0324-large.html#00:15:47.960
Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
the leveling war happens, where people veer from,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
you know, the optimal line of, okay, 33% each for each one.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
You can't beat that, but you also can't win with that either.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So you're always trying to be at the cutting,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
at the leading edge of suboptimal play.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
Yeah, you're going back and forth.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
And listen, at the highest levels,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
like online that these guys play,
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
like they're trying to play pretty close
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
to like game theory optimal
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
because it's very difficult to do first of all.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
No human being will ever be able to compute
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
at the level that computers can.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
It's just never going to happen.
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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324
So that's where like the human mind has to come into play
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