sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ebd3a6d3cc624294edaaab3393665d757ced5c64 | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0xc97c98ef6d79a84be2a8b5747a63a79ee99826204d41e19e39ed8e05d90c755d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Devils vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Choice: devils | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Raptors | Event: nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bulls vs. Pistons | Event: nba-chi-det-2025-02-02 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questi... | astros | 0 | mlb-hou-lad-2025-07-06 | Astros vs. Dodgers | 73,665,881 | 73,675,549 |
9be7392ec3d7e59fde9b248f03d96bfab1eb210e | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xc309de54faeb9586fd4eb86e2960fa8eeead74e5eb5ee860ddfe65ee331d333c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the match be a draw?
Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Will the match be a draw? | 58,451,592 | 58,451,592 |
b54087c3b880706d19c61b636d8efb3d0c779b56 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xd379496a6146d693c189c36a1ea3170e97bda0fb980cc99917e12cc15898f6c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Slovakia win?
Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Will Slovakia win? | 58,451,616 | 58,451,616 |
05056aa48c305c6450fba05588d126d2632c3f62 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x7f9b2accc2550776b5bfecca3b98454825e1c9a948464fa2245639e89ea904b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the match be a draw?
Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia
Pr... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Will the match be a draw? | 58,494,354 | 58,494,354 |
bca83299a40bce7ef0887dcb89bc3e94c19e0450 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xfbdbf7c4e5f337da9743bff13a59c821c0b498a4b56fd3be0324ea65743fd586 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-turkey-vs-portugal | Will the match be a Draw? | 58,494,354 | 58,494,354 |
71f76ea0dfa922d1e732309c333b6409b4d351da | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x22a86682ab2986d590704b08c8b752f48788b76a5ca67f71d35bf0cbf70e2883 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Will Germany win? | 58,533,021 | 58,533,021 |
953a81ad9e96f7aea406b25a8d8a2891bad06c2e | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x57badf7944e18e1cee11719268a5cc3610c441ed1a659189615a6cff80194f23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-scotland-vs-hungary | Will the match be a draw? | 58,533,021 | 58,533,021 |
9dbfdf0e521319347726a4704d9f3d8b029bf8eb | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x7337549076878d45027bdb51bce58c00d9f17d395ace88442c95fd386cf36502 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Will the match be a draw? | 58,533,021 | 58,533,021 |
a5256f918b43bc91985326d72768564f1c373fb0 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xe454961da5b810ac8a52e877f7cbf48b06ed0e330d1298e22d53b64f55281699 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-scotland-vs-hungary | Will Scotland win? | 58,533,021 | 58,533,021 |
3335645e2eee0b8877c60cc7f65c6eee11b37f2a | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x135865901841ec415ca2f621c8ce58d4aab20fecfc17186c40bcbd500cccdfc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Will the match be a draw? | 58,619,665 | 58,619,665 |
15bc5d49b27e3874f749e6e23e51fdff75fa61aa | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x26ce2fe98f1d9a00cbc40c18940016b4717683b94905474b5f86a4394e4d761d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-denmark-vs-serbia | Will Denmark win? | 58,619,665 | 58,619,665 |
a8590433a4de3b785e441c88ea40a2593dbea81b | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x7c3022ddeae4d2af031fa31a497ed8360d6cdb6fd4725bf572285a3f8d86824e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-france-vs-poland | Will France win? | 58,619,665 | 58,619,665 |
c2d6af623417eae1a17abc1c6af9e49d8828749b | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x2458ae3aead6c14d8ba21a40af061f38155045f322ebc61f7edc85c6d7a79974 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-czechia-vs-turkey | Will the match be a draw? | 58,652,544 | 58,652,544 |
f6637d57c08a2152fcd5da31118b42fdc968f705 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x6c3f29ab3d66e56dde25aa653e5e5c8c05ceb5546fc925816aaf3d76bb86abfc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Will the match be a draw? | 58,652,544 | 58,652,544 |
be4ee4532738f35ddaedc6e43eebd8d460dc5aa6 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xc03040ea457fe12680374114bbf09cd3eaa8510120f2ce5de5bb1960eda83dbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-slovakia-vs-romania | Will the match be a draw? | 58,652,544 | 58,652,544 |
903405bbb2b11bacc7ac3024693d948d0e55d14b | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xe001b331ac10fb3aaae388db6e4a0b3b94ed484dd5bcaa01c71554983cc0cafa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-georgia-vs-portugal | Will the match be a draw? | 58,652,544 | 58,652,544 |
e97a2acd44654602bee4375757009b7fd10108b8 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x5c54d962db0d663f89f000f3f3f35b84815ad0946ff0d014146884d25911ea76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-spain-vs-georgia | Will Spain Win? | 58,830,419 | 58,830,419 |
9d0194dd0e9301188b56342e9591cae1ccf43661 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x8291ff7c970197941d6702babe7c0146fa8fa1a0e8021d61076e647920da567c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Will England Win? | 58,830,419 | 58,830,419 |
6e59cfc9a3b8eb1afa2d60941901f4869b0b14c2 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xbe2654aee49bfff7a298a1f8354d759947d95789ee2c86bb60747f0732df0cd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Will the match be a draw? | 58,830,419 | 58,830,419 |
4e0555c47f49ad3b99e8875150a4c498809ab922 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xf088daec5b2db223394b815d9e18b25d24580bf55c4bd13b074725e4f3a883be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-spain-vs-georgia | Will the match be a draw? | 58,830,419 | 58,830,419 |
7e38d2b53914102b39690567aa5faab4400bda26 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x25c6763e4521680ab39d61786577fb4b1af89e9d215be35c79ad1a060a21e11d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-france-vs-belgium | Will the match be a draw? | 58,851,595 | 58,851,595 |
228014ab94333f9975538d407005162304da6684 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x6b945e23797043f997b2da0db05d63f16a7bbd18f741c72fb844a76fbf492305 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia | Will the match be a draw? | 58,851,595 | 58,851,595 |
c0ab83b85101295edf83dd71000cc8bced1475e1 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x8e8cae51fd12958d6b4753eecd0868b23d63f35f79fbfc9b7aa0755b4e86d0cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands | Will the match be a draw? | 58,979,386 | 58,979,386 |
b1d62769800e1b8541d8ac935e3959dd1a57c950 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xe43706845fd3df3ab2bd41a4dc3fd4154fc5d1953a6ac0b96dff5506b7e6e5be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-austria-vs-turkey | Will the match be a draw? | 58,979,386 | 58,979,386 |
da77fee8588218780f6a8e2c9a98488bb275e707 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x5c60e958660d2637d3cccaa31ec3bb124314aaeaec985bba465ce99a1ad1bbca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-portugal-vs-france | Will the match be a Draw? | 59,015,827 | 59,015,827 |
1c0876a947074a0450582f5104de78c136439a2a | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x95fb7ad11160bd2a09154758fcfae23890b748f12b03432cf398d2fd14dd8a8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-spain-vs-germany | Will the match be a Draw? | 59,015,827 | 59,015,827 |
443f1f6ea85ce147bbd1205cc50e234609cf9462 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x2da517d08253417010f26d4696af16d880181ba27d7e8abe808d225702037326 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-england-vs-switzerland | Will the match be a draw? | 59,054,617 | 59,054,617 |
9fe26f3dc697816032242a92f13dde214058cd31 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x96189971bfd6342ca85ddecb000a2187f1c2f2c431fc08cf9a8998f6b15eeefd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Will the match be a draw? | 59,354,452 | 59,354,452 |
9ffba86cbbe56bfc77fb74992b4b2644156b6664 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x9d025e08116bdebccf99fdff9eb7de1468216093b7b3a3f3c402290c5fb42c02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Will the match be a draw? | 59,354,452 | 59,354,452 |
47122697b7b7014ed24012fb53cd07b574d8da4c | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xfc3f39d2c1ebfa0f5b60e70ff71f0164beffb4f61df2141254f53c9917b309e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-netherlands-vs-turkey | Will the match be a draw? | 59,354,452 | 59,354,452 |
7c9f8371a7a875111311e68aac1f1ae6cf4b619e | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x1c27161c95cb6a3a1403641517c1d79e4e18431f75ad1a9bc1443193b1e1a246 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | copa-america-winner | Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | 59,420,614 | 59,420,614 |
5969cfe2243d51eb30cce10716951b6a2f721ab1 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x30709c2e19250baee2a61e0f5b350d3a7b493317c4219e92c371b58b66d7da30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | 200m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke? | 60,136,007 | 60,136,007 |
442c43396cd9384c4eb538918dd14702b501c69c | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x42b211c58e071ceee79b9c57deff6e578ce637eb877a0cf0598807f504c2f2b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Slovakia win? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-ukraine | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a Draw? | Event: euro-2024-turkey-vs-portugal | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | 200m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Individual Medley? | 60,136,007 | 60,136,007 |
e06d03b812035005c5c01298561d702604aadb57 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x9082084c5d2b1c5c52f46ea60226a12dbd8b16ec6e122aa35b43a3e00c89cf40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a Draw? | Event: euro-2024-turkey-vs-portugal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | 50m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Cameron McEvoy (AUS) win Gold in Men's 50m Freestyle? | 60,136,007 | 60,136,007 |
35531f2209090bfb78f0528c5d5803725a74e888 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x39860220d8f3007b49a185f2cbc0444c7c6bbb48bfdd3ccaa4989cedd10df35d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a Draw? | Event: euro-2024-turkey-vs-portugal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-scotland-vs-hungary | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | 100m-butterfly-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Kristof Milak (HUN) win Gold in Men's 100m Butterfly? | 60,188,080 | 60,188,080 |
bfddcf6a43314bb3cf859b69fb927ad906a02958 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x799e0a99312e7daca333239e42978ef2e4cc42f4a0e73fe2a749883a064538bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-scotland-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | 60,188,080 | 60,188,080 |
38044a959ba25506844543ee4d66bb6ead2fc883 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x8fe11bfea8cfe523d8c384b5f7b14440e461c784d9672bf469032b49ae383a57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-scotland-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Scotland win? | Event: euro-2024-scotland-vs-hungary | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | 100m-winner-w | Will Sha’Carri Richardson (USA) win gold in 100m W? | 60,188,080 | 60,188,080 |
b0895902da7ad25696743f80e076b8c5675680d1 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x998dad5cc0ce47a97f746e5f6d5a2d26e2eff4cf4c537b5a7bcff69d73206e45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Scotland win? | Event: euro-2024-scotland-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Choice:... | yes | 1 | individual-vault-winner-w | Will Simone Biles (USA) win Gold in Women’s Vault Final? | 60,188,080 | 60,188,080 |
c782da7ed83b36b8c87e12e24cf1040a8455ba7a | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xd9afdd6d54d1bab677d651d12c8a15271e63fb6354bb9b629dd526c886ed422e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scotland win? | Event: euro-2024-scotland-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Denmark win? | Event: euro-2024-denmark-vs-serbia | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | shot-put-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Ryan Crouser (USA) win Gold in Shot Put? | 60,188,080 | 60,188,080 |
5329069cec2917b0949f45c4139abc72b969d273 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x3d703783c6f9c42503ad59a0d9761f8ccbde4a738fa1925fca673c0372c4f788 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Denmark win? | Event: euro-2024-denmark-vs-serbia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-france-vs-poland | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Kishane Thompson (JAM) win Gold in 100m? | 60,253,985 | 60,253,985 |
8756784041cf40d4191904d22bdb941d291dcb8f | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xa9796312c4c95d1b0708ace21bd46a9fb953cfc110a3e95d4cfbf8993fa3e1e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Denmark win? | Event: euro-2024-denmark-vs-serbia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-france-vs-poland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-czechia-vs-turkey | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | hammer-throw-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Ethan Katzberg win Gold in Hammer Throw? | 60,253,985 | 60,253,985 |
cbeda5f995a57ec3b2a554f93fdbc7fa4aae4fcf | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xf4df7160c93bf5d52aa103fddf118031adf2557e5c14cb9cea7eeff4f02c35e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-france-vs-poland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-czechia-vs-turkey | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | 50m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Sarah Sjostrom (SWE) win Gold in Women's 50m Freestyle? | 60,253,985 | 60,253,985 |
2822cd2650da686da25053d5a46146f01d39d445 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x2e6103503b0ff50e3eca6962c5d7349ae4d37ffa7e7995eee2bdc060055ff773 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-czechia-vs-turkey | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-romania | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | 1500m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) win Gold in 1500m? | 60,334,267 | 60,334,267 |
e79eb74009e8064c20f5c1d6595f8a3ef4117a6e | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x9153e1cac1c1dbaf2d6761cf10c3d944951411de0b744acf35211aa11ba1e38d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-portugal | Choice:... | yes | 1 | 200m-winner-w | Will Gabrielle Thomas (USA) win gold in 200m W? | 60,334,267 | 60,334,267 |
7791ceeac434b5ca8c916fb83c9460de3bb0b504 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xae4735f6e896b3fb25faf0ee7bbc548f11908161c1640bd6fa82179b4ff8c6de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-slovakia-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-portugal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain Win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | 200m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 200m? | 60,362,229 | 60,362,229 |
d056b130bd5defb70080ec21d353f53019d37e91 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0x3c0425a6019a6c73fdf23894d3d7cec6041224c00380ac18bec3823710affe04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-portugal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain Win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | 400m-winner-w | Will Marileidy Paulino (DOM) win gold in 400m W? | 60,403,611 | 60,403,611 |
453ea5b467bec46040e747e1ba24d2785a233d35 | 0x023842729d891d7b8cd8e2c3155d10a5114f92a9 | 0xa20b568eb6f55446d33816f3bd89767735c1ce8ea3e5d1a8371084aa4f5eefc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain Win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England Win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | womens-beach-volleyball-winner | Will Ana Patricia Silva & Lisboa Duda (BRA) win Gold in Beach Volleyball? | 60,403,611 | 60,403,611 |
c0216bc336c26361b373a31c78d72298b66e2d1f | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x3b0219839834994cf42c57692e581b91803ee750dddc74f64436578f7b5e00d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | 78,357,352 | 78,357,352 |
d14aa923e6932764dc8b2226fafad972d2940941 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x8399dce9cd1331332e3c32f55ceead4763d6a4edfbc04844aa3dc76e41815e40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | 78,357,352 | 78,357,352 |
6924745dae1e6bccd556a7720e7f90e8c21f9430 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0xe08f72fbbbc6ef0f1750da174b4bf989777d9a52af9922dcff23b460b303d1ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-28 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or higher on October 28? | 78,357,352 | 78,357,352 |
89ab1a9f852473efd71ced320b2320e3a2bfe3ca | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0xe7f460a37b5ea9fdd56303fc4d0fa675ea444a8761594a09edc99490c274a1f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on October 28? | 78,357,352 | 78,357,352 |
c7c5b2042feacde151244689c89e2b2320218182 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0xefaa22ae1e9698d07e576df3817cf5dc146cf94dd02936549b66b375327aac76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on October 28? | 78,357,352 | 78,357,352 |
88ae6948a6903ee6828d2f8f69b56861468fb2e4 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x4a853265724fef21ef0fd2975c36eb1c0f17c604fe1591b7c4dc985c42c33989 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on November 2? | 78,542,341 | 78,542,341 |
85c7ce27658f9c0856792ebaf061894656e19cac | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x62f5c08c82b445611ace54f32b56d446bd0416ab60136bd338ea1b53d70e2efc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | up | 0.613537 | hsi-up-or-down-on-november-5-2025 | Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on November 5? | 78,635,575 | 78,654,292 |
a9f68f7466275f79c4a1a673324225f53513cc2f | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x28fac04e49071980a14d0b93b46c38f173703c64d23deba90eecf5c38a05ca9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-6 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 6? | 78,657,717 | 78,657,717 |
0db54b1a72925904e5b0d42e27b6d88811cefe0b | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x5c53e9b1746a6df09a38ad18936612c6ca6220f5812d586caaa38d139d50f9f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-7 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 7? | 78,727,184 | 78,727,184 |
d975caf94f8a861432014f797e83cf690a481b87 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x10744840e475724e5759ebd4239204657219c1f46bff9ec30d526bc5e8644cf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | no | 0 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1 | 78,794,775 | 78,794,775 |
2cc2da9756718b6f1af2d2ae8f6bc02b4c5886b6 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x6a1dc41df5e4a2703219c06378faaf8c4870d5e218164fd5656cc7c1a4542417 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 0.99968 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 | 78,810,314 | 78,810,314 |
695aad0ad81d56d0eab31d47fffbcee9be193a78 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x295f4445df3a3349bbfd516448693335a7a8d3bce024740422067a5b9ed2dfcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | down | 0 | dax-up-or-down-on-november-11-2025 | DAX (DAX) Up or Down on November 11? | 78,896,824 | 78,896,824 |
049891936b3d1c39755060b4b1a3302ec4ae0338 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0xd12a42fb0e437937ffc3ae47b9af7e949119d1873435cb1a4191f7c05bc73c01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 12? | 78,938,386 | 78,938,386 |
95b5f4025f234e0af2ae0cd25a5e8d6f10043e99 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0xe7b89c4b92395e6063c528499cba0dce203be4cade116a9d427f74b60955101c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | down | 0 | hsi-up-or-down-on-november-13-2025 | Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on November 13? | 78,958,041 | 78,999,668 |
89d617e6bed9c2a3894d4336c153c0e00f8d885a | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x42ef2d707524716eaa8f53295013b283ec34c33a0fec196f698bc3b399ed8e52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | up | 1 | pltr-up-or-down-on-november-13-2025 | Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 13? | 78,999,668 | 78,999,668 |
7ca6b4a1bea8b71d17317659d33b12a575764eeb | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x6a37be9475ea43575b94c6a99cb70ded0db5fb77630c71257688a7c57fbad9ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | keeper-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Keeper" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m? | 79,225,231 | 79,225,231 |
f2a33b84d7378fb9a94536508e1664ed3a2440b0 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x6b23533b9e3f5e01d0e5853825c6346cbed9c1139d17fbe3b6ee34f7dde2e007 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | which-candidates-advance-to-2025-chilean-presidential-runoff | Will Jeannette Jara and Johannes Kaiser advance to the runoff? | 79,225,231 | 79,225,231 |
26ae1655c42ce577bc732d878978ce02ae046106 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x8ca2e1dc988185ef154f38424cc465a76cd0d1700b4bd0740221fdb155fdc511 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | down | 1 | googl-up-or-down-on-november-17-2025 | Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on November 17? | 79,225,231 | 79,225,231 |
696471e5cd7bf116ff2abc3cd99e25400c0b3199 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0xc049437b1ccaa77b02f77c939c8d43f56a6b411f20b34fdd0022874e7b159cb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | up | 1 | msft-up-or-down-on-november-17-2025 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on November 17? | 79,225,231 | 79,225,231 |
38f3cda378197359458fc32c707be900aabf3258 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x1f307535fc123591f44c3b58adf9dc4dbc5b9cc829848a0e2011be4ce6147da5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | rklb-week-november-21-2025 | Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) close at $48-$50 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,348,259 | 79,348,259 |
b5b0a8ff33c0abfae7d14f1963caf9b0254ba3a1 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x6a8b13adcd238d0df8f280277b3273fc95117b100c68c8a44a375c8ab3d34f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | aapl-week-november-21-2025 | Will Apple (AAPL) close at $255-$260 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,348,259 | 79,348,259 |
00061112b04649cc51fc89f6e789d7dc052e0558 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0xa2062d47a4995e4ce6405be393c1f5d83941ae5e6e255bc1c54002881e850485 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | aapl-week-november-21-2025 | Will Apple (AAPL) close at $260-$265 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,348,259 | 79,348,259 |
7373d4fec09faa4cf39eb3a999c3f3b796b185ee | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0xe38f37fa4436c97a35b9d08012b65cc25e844f2c86360fcaa667761b95b61a17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | googl-week-november-21-2025 | Will Google (GOOGL) close at $280-$285 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,348,259 | 79,348,259 |
38689f1f89c495961f89cbda5472d30c7bdc59f8 | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0xcc12cc80945db15a26b62a98829f647e521d8d9af5dfbceaee4b956c31b00454 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | no | 1 | amzn-week-november-21-2025 | Will Amazon (AMZN) close at <$225 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,348,260 | 79,348,260 |
959051d6864626e5c8b86a15282b055337add35f | 0x02540d81e8edb5498c8e4393fc0adfc42181efdb | 0x2af0936665bb52dfe1f1bc32a224487e7ea86c6f804794bcdf14428927d5aa4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-377 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | 79,435,473 | 79,435,473 |
bc1e6fb0e3584e4333604a5bc47da4b7d2ef0588 | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0x04dbe85cf31a4198d8bd414aa18d7868ab9987701a035536ab7e151aeb31970a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01?
Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | 67,421,212 | 67,421,212 |
3e70df5bacd463247d86b34cdb318ea617e948dc | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0x81bcbfc8da1a4dbfe21832c50c126b04b45be8ca455457dcbcfbee48cc6458db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01?
Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confid... | no | 1 | epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | 67,421,212 | 67,421,212 |
96a2be50b9f4eb0634e0a0a1b0e34df140b4da18 | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0xa4ab100c202f212fcc3e3ad2d3bd05d28aaa66e93e5be4cd6f41ca8d3ecaaa89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw?
Event: epl-new-ful-20... | no | 1 | epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | 67,421,212 | 67,421,212 |
d6e70a9669575b0ed2790735a2f485812a7d494a | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0x1c9978f9e7990d5f2b594c82f65f1ffbe754ca867926d690d7e2c5e7029aadec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | ... | no | 1 | ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw? | 67,816,859 | 67,816,859 |
94ef20470e7c9ca0808877c0e0e60d89cf9ba49d | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0x3b3cba495145f5bf1a5b273db703d75df7573123c2c655a592efb13e2768b5f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | ... | yes | 0.821325 | ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-02-11? | 67,816,859 | 67,816,859 |
f3a01ddd2973e3b51d9f7f73360fd668f37d5170 | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0xd2bea6c86cf24f9413bf9d1cb82431c18d7d0d6c93b878c138f91e793e1ac558 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | ... | no | 1 | ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? | 67,816,859 | 67,816,859 |
3cb0d13630543f0beb3994e124e62bf73c93070b | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0x5ab5c6e20ca40cb31b779daa04d6eac96b4050b0c05d9ee9f0883e118647c2cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | ... | yes | 1 | ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-12? | 67,857,095 | 67,857,095 |
40d2a55c00f9ceda8920b6f75371d098c87020db | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0xb8838983793120f189f1e9e061b76b91b959c0088db8b6265db497e19549cbd1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | ... | no | 1 | ucl-bru-ata-2025-02-12 | Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-12? | 67,857,095 | 67,857,095 |
f1df075dde5924f1dc3cb44900d48e8def881a82 | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0x614345d0823db9c8aea916fa53fd51f80843924e70ea4aaf894455ee63f1853a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | ... | no | 1 | uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-real-sociedad | Will FC Midtjylland beat Real Sociedad? | 67,902,153 | 67,902,153 |
301d285bc0d4029654bd5e79b8b000449abfe3f6 | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0x563d71267eb2c9c2f69100282a29458bb64d3981cb37c5d5716f5fc75b39b7db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | ... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-borussia-dortmund-vs-ulsan | Will Ulsan beat Borussia Dortmund? | 73,232,621 | 73,232,621 |
c75d74afabe288ed33ddc5b806e1a64d267277b9 | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0xa3547f330a7cfc4f6a54256efc8d54ac3c176ed7c5cb337f0398a60b3b187535 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | ... | t1 | 1 | league-of-legends-t1-vs-nongshim-red-force | League of Legends: T1 vs. Nongshim Red Force | 74,475,998 | 74,475,998 |
d06e4a58bfa1a60602aa9543b6b1ad3deccc8f4d | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0xe7851f4d6245641c45ae49390ee6afe06e2af831b1f8524f304239c697ff8bc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | ... | no | 1 | fl1-nan-psg-2025-08-17 | Will FC Nantes win on 2025-08-17? | 75,345,533 | 75,345,533 |
e2fe79a62b58316bd3f49ce12fd24d718cb54631 | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0x98f5983d6f62274a981e577d23e81fff959ef443e96cb652b4468d9d9270db4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | ... | no | 1 | lal-elc-bet-2025-08-18 | Will Elche CF win on 2025-08-18? | 75,386,331 | 75,386,331 |
d719805efb7fc72dcf517de722716e735cd18495 | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0x44392c7eab9337f2aa321e1274a101a133a60e0c2dc3c55f6b74c612c7739645 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | ... | no | 1 | lal-rea-osa-2025-08-19 | Will Osasuna win on 2025-08-19? | 75,423,993 | 75,423,993 |
e278a50a279b7b5bee14366f80941fcd8384bdf6 | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0x274a8d312f4a9f57d297f6848b80c3dc89c1b85a65b4f1c3ee48c6bf643f24cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | ... | no | 1 | sea-sas-nap-2025-08-23 | Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-08-23? | 75,584,382 | 75,584,382 |
afbf8ecf0901bf204c14cf1e46732436fda492a0 | 0x02547dd8455167296eb872d47cbf88de0d1434b3 | 0xf8fccf41980a6e5243b8f1d779b09bd1b0f72bde6f5ac67f5ffd7170e408ab48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | ... | yes | 1 | bun-ein-wer-2025-08-23 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-08-23? | 75,584,382 | 75,584,382 |
f56335b6cad27291d4ee53489c1f586e5706757f | 0x02571ed3bfa4162c80b288310745503275a822b2 | 0x3c14980495b09987db0d1b241f47c8f791b6591340f94fea066beeef139ec352 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?
Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | 77,806,534 | 77,806,534 |
5ebe25043fadf5aca4d48ac9b9cfc33d4deacddd | 0x02571ed3bfa4162c80b288310745503275a822b2 | 0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for t... | yes | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 78,608,594 | 78,608,594 |
02a4c66399e70b85c72247534c3db643f39e9571 | 0x02571ed3bfa4162c80b288310745503275a822b2 | 0xd441bd6fbe29196d13db20819e0c5d62e05a82620e58e080c835e221fdb8e249 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-paf-vil-2025-11-05 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05? | 78,640,152 | 78,640,152 |
5a3df7af9044c53c79a5cc567fe6d034ac11be86 | 0x02571ed3bfa4162c80b288310745503275a822b2 | 0x14f68a35ee10054958707d553f4078cee01b23f6761944eceb1ed5ae64b31ba8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarre... | yes | 1 | mex-jua-que-2025-11-07 | Will Querétaro FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,738,850 | 78,738,850 |
5fb4b0548b2056273bc99b5defaf207cf99bbee4 | 0x02571ed3bfa4162c80b288310745503275a822b2 | 0x6baa96a2e7f0a46e00b8449b40f13b9c199b41eaa713e31d0b4c82b68d238331 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarre... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-mun-2025-11-08 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? | 78,778,087 | 78,778,087 |
b63492539ffab7e43da0ce1783fad0a5904b7aea | 0x02571ed3bfa4162c80b288310745503275a822b2 | 0xa4f92e44385e2b425e8e56126dd723d856b2fe68fa70239dd165465c1ae3a607 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarre... | yes | 1 | arg-uni-bar-2025-11-08 | Will CA Unión win on 2025-11-08? | 78,781,714 | 78,781,714 |
b3cb256619aa186a17883c16dc39954c8cf9981c | 0x02571ed3bfa4162c80b288310745503275a822b2 | 0x4676c8779c286a84397d3ce0a5843a363aa418be792571946c61ec9af266057c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarre... | no | 1 | mex-leo-pue-2025-11-08 | Will Club León FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,782,341 | 78,782,341 |
bbc491040b9e354c42b5257233cba562702986b0 | 0x02571ed3bfa4162c80b288310745503275a822b2 | 0x34da915352034059e0fc47b677cb2ca87d189cb797f92c0684dcb275e6af34c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarre... | yes | 1 | lol-worlds-2025-winner | Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? | 78,799,019 | 78,799,019 |
380a30a0e24294294d8e6b18d14cbf6579a009aa | 0x02571ed3bfa4162c80b288310745503275a822b2 | 0xdc149ddf17e7adc2c2bcdd9caa4235ed3cbc4730f3ae10d2e26c3089b063a6eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarre... | yes | 1 | lal-ray-rea-2025-11-09 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,343 | 78,815,343 |
67605a5c8179fc0a9ea683c2f7404a8de89536ce | 0x02571ed3bfa4162c80b288310745503275a822b2 | 0x9ee33240c84e0e9595973f27fd7b2cadce304190f67fe3c8fc675e50c94ba1e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarre... | yes | 1 | bun-ein-mai-2025-11-09 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,436 | 78,815,436 |
bb81637a2ff42bfdc939cc6b1fe9eba96ee09bfe | 0x02571ed3bfa4162c80b288310745503275a822b2 | 0xafbef5a84d713a2aa81f87699a548be786cc2616c0073158ef99045cd1e66839 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarre... | yes | 1 | lal-bil-ovi-2025-11-09 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,436 | 78,815,436 |
ea84556b9d3bef812c3cf4d455f52b124e0cf254 | 0x02571ed3bfa4162c80b288310745503275a822b2 | 0xd5bcae4b42a708ba65d3fa740d39e19246559394bcfa2bceb3fade6f1ed3ef2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarre... | no | 1 | sea-ata-sas-2025-11-09 | Will Atalanta win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,436 | 78,815,436 |
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