sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
c930ae3b786249927f74e36f6167740e8b45e9e6 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x878b327b652a6e3ba5cfe6754608dd4b37d8ecf7b05d533bcd794967c04aaf8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mavericks vs. Heat | Event: nba-dal-mia-2024-11-24 | Choice: heat | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Lakers vs. Suns | Event: nba-lal-phx-2024-11-26 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Spurs vs. Jazz | Event: nba-sas-uta-2024-11-26 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: Celtics... | pelicans | 0 | nba-nop-sas-2024-12-08 | Pelicans vs. Spurs | 65,254,606 | 65,258,397 |
69703489a3dab96b4b91e0178684cd966240b844 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x79983713e8ae8725714a03131573b497f4709630f7d5aff43524436598730e9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Lakers vs. Suns | Event: nba-lal-phx-2024-11-26 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Jazz | Event: nba-sas-uta-2024-11-26 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-bos-cle-2024-12-01 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question:... | timberwolves | 0 | nba-min-gsw-2024-12-08 | Timberwolves vs. Warriors | 65,257,011 | 65,257,011 |
5cdfa9a9cac4d31c496bf67ee9d6efff47439e88 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xab4948807a44ec40116b468fc45f6d9476f80dcabdfee5db333f5c0dd073a79b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spurs vs. Jazz | Event: nba-sas-uta-2024-11-26 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Celtics vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-bos-cle-2024-12-01 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Buccaneers vs. Panthers | Event: nfl-tb-car-2024-12-01 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
4... | rockets | 0 | nba-gsw-hou-2024-12-11 | Warriors vs. Rockets | 65,377,163 | 65,392,393 |
60d8a31cb4fd0ee51d52afecc84ee8cdd2bcec96 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xbbd070428f1dfea8851b7a01363be7eb717ffc7d5674bcce65433b0511464266 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-bos-cle-2024-12-01 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Buccaneers vs. Panthers | Event: nfl-tb-car-2024-12-01 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Heat vs. Raptors | Event: nba-mia-tor-2024-12-01 | Choice: heat | Confidence: 0.0... | hawks | 0 | nba-atl-nyk-2024-12-11 | Hawks vs. Knicks | 65,377,163 | 65,392,393 |
10dc196c6658577a889f16e1230bae5931b8519d | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x5132d0a92ad461ef662bd28c099337f1cc8b54242931d1c074a6bb5b9530a122 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Buccaneers vs. Panthers | Event: nfl-tb-car-2024-12-01 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Heat vs. Raptors | Event: nba-mia-tor-2024-12-01 | Choice: heat | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Rockets | Event: nba-okc-hou-2024-12-01 | Choice: rockets | Confidence: 0.0
4. ... | 49ers | 0 | nfl-la-sf-2024-12-12 | Rams vs. 49ers | 65,414,973 | 65,434,132 |
11fd15fac900649ae8e17476425a174cc82a083a | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x48d4288d05233836cd3a4ce9d7f39ae62ca993d5cb9fa6180be972f7e05703be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Heat vs. Raptors | Event: nba-mia-tor-2024-12-01 | Choice: heat | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Thunder vs. Rockets | Event: nba-okc-hou-2024-12-01 | Choice: rockets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Nuggets vs. Clippers | Event: nba-den-lac-2024-12-01 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Ques... | hurricanes | 0 | nhl-ott-car-2024-12-13 | Senators vs. Hurricanes | 65,453,422 | 65,459,408 |
5ac0f77e65788b7f48d7629ebe36fa44ade551f8 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x41296a9399dac1ddeec976438f436be53f73c63b41fe766d4d54ad27d9f552bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Thunder vs. Rockets | Event: nba-okc-hou-2024-12-01 | Choice: rockets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Nuggets vs. Clippers | Event: nba-den-lac-2024-12-01 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Spurs vs. Kings | Event: nba-sas-sac-2024-12-01 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
4. Ques... | clippers | 0 | nba-lac-den-2024-12-13 | Clippers vs. Nuggets | 65,456,694 | 65,462,372 |
e3ae5554be587446f92eadb6c02abb0d4138df49 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xd72190b4fc64eb33b6f4cff6095c31d8b1b4ed083121b0479bcc49c3882e3123 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nuggets vs. Clippers | Event: nba-den-lac-2024-12-01 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Kings | Event: nba-sas-sac-2024-12-01 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: 76ers vs. Hornets | Event: nba-phi-cha-2024-12-03 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question... | jazz | 0 | nba-phx-uta-2024-12-13 | Suns vs. Jazz | 65,456,905 | 65,456,905 |
23e518b79647d03d52c301a0fe4c92af9356f4da | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x172f9328b5c9aa37a85580422b6f8058546b3ecba38578347f58b1cca2f1674b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spurs vs. Kings | Event: nba-sas-sac-2024-12-01 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Hornets | Event: nba-phi-cha-2024-12-03 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bucks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-mil-det-2024-12-03 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: Griz... | blackhawks | 0 | nhl-chi-nj-2024-12-14 | Blackhawks vs. Devils | 65,484,881 | 65,488,952 |
ecc6fea705ec4519b84e12ddf50882a27f4b0134 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x6826183bb15feea6dcb89aded0525a88eeaf73a35e3a6c12d7086d3460856143 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 76ers vs. Hornets | Event: nba-phi-cha-2024-12-03 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bucks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-mil-det-2024-12-03 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Grizzlies vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-mem-dal-2024-12-03 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 0.0
4. Qu... | bucks | 0 | nba-atl-mil-2024-12-14 | Hawks vs. Bucks | 65,488,427 | 65,495,277 |
9e098e76fb97af51dbaa4bba07b3a49cb1f4ce13 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xbda57b7f7037334c5b53c1362d359c9a2c7bb57017077e7319c8984cbf4abc03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bucks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-mil-det-2024-12-03 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Grizzlies vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-mem-dal-2024-12-03 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Spurs vs. Suns | Event: nba-sas-phx-2024-12-03 | Choice: spurs | Confidence: 0.0
4. Quest... | rockets | 0 | nba-hou-okc-2024-12-14 | Rockets vs. Thunder | 65,495,409 | 65,495,409 |
225f09e26f4afcec299e0c89cd612bb54c346951 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x536e68a1aebc38b85058962eee12a7323fdab96ad6c1d2a3d8c60bee8130db26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Grizzlies vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-mem-dal-2024-12-03 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Suns | Event: nba-sas-phx-2024-12-03 | Choice: spurs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Rockets vs. Kings | Event: nba-hou-sac-2024-12-03 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
4. Quest... | bengals | 0 | nfl-cin-ten-2024-12-15 | Bengals vs. Titans | 65,521,812 | 65,530,508 |
818b2c2aea1492c9c36d0035fbd118a90a21776a | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x74525549564755570c9de287e5a045a89c19c821545b3cd5dfdf6407cf6fc692 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spurs vs. Suns | Event: nba-sas-phx-2024-12-03 | Choice: spurs | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Rockets vs. Kings | Event: nba-hou-sac-2024-12-03 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Warriors vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-gsw-den-2024-12-03 | Choice: nuggets | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: ... | jaguars | 0 | nfl-nyj-jax-2024-12-15 | Jets vs. Jaguars | 65,522,024 | 65,530,508 |
ddfce1090946e0220997a6bdfca231815c2c5ff8 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x8e49c8fef05cbbe9252d9be561ace534e9b4e7254e9e1f2cf7ee5a909c201ea8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockets vs. Kings | Event: nba-hou-sac-2024-12-03 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-gsw-den-2024-12-03 | Choice: nuggets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Falcons vs. Vikings | Event: nfl-atl-min-2024-12-08 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 0.0
4. Que... | dolphins | 0 | nfl-mia-hou-2024-12-15 | Dolphins vs. Texans | 65,522,107 | 65,522,107 |
431732bb33f40c1e10654ed6e20a42aedd687a4b | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x9d3dd3240db46be9558d856f5d82e45b9e86125c3d9fdb507d752e3c447cf779 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Warriors vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-gsw-den-2024-12-03 | Choice: nuggets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Falcons vs. Vikings | Event: nfl-atl-min-2024-12-08 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Jaguars vs. Titans | Event: nfl-jax-ten-2024-12-08 | Choice: jaguars | Confidence: 0.0
4. ... | cowboys | 0 | nfl-dal-car-2024-12-15 | Cowboys vs. Panthers | 65,523,685 | 65,530,984 |
3c0d9d7e9505474c75c5f6699f777ff03fd9bb5a | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xed846b6294cce35e19f661e4251a4e12882d2f55504a11720d6f672bafb48c27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Falcons vs. Vikings | Event: nfl-atl-min-2024-12-08 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jaguars vs. Titans | Event: nfl-jax-ten-2024-12-08 | Choice: jaguars | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: 76ers vs. Bulls | Event: nba-phi-chi-2024-12-08 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questio... | bills | 0 | nfl-buf-det-2024-12-15 | Bills vs. Lions | 65,526,588 | 65,536,380 |
4501a71eb34fee0a955b07af6902f29f2cda6718 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x942e6592252e11bf733f08652a1177ac1b5f0c1e9c960d4cd370d3aeeaca164a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaguars vs. Titans | Event: nfl-jax-ten-2024-12-08 | Choice: jaguars | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Bulls | Event: nba-phi-chi-2024-12-08 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Saints vs. Giants | Event: nfl-no-nyg-2024-12-08 | Choice: giants | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: B... | commanders | 0 | nfl-was-no-2024-12-15 | Commanders vs. Saints | 65,526,680 | 65,530,894 |
6c957b83c070b471d586a847d7f76cd353e10200 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x3d06d7f914dc48f3d95953bd37190638e2db523e7cf1383bef69431dda710c92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 76ers vs. Bulls | Event: nba-phi-chi-2024-12-08 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Saints vs. Giants | Event: nfl-no-nyg-2024-12-08 | Choice: giants | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Browns vs. Steelers | Event: nfl-cle-pit-2024-12-08 | Choice: browns | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: J... | broncos | 0 | nfl-ind-den-2024-12-15 | Colts vs. Broncos | 65,527,606 | 65,527,606 |
ef5edb99519043cd0a6ac1942bb95f4c845cecad | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xa38c158c1084e994f2fe8081dd400d2ab51ab94b814658c69c374de421baf497 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Saints vs. Giants | Event: nfl-no-nyg-2024-12-08 | Choice: giants | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Browns vs. Steelers | Event: nfl-cle-pit-2024-12-08 | Choice: browns | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Jets vs. Dolphins | Event: nfl-nyj-mia-2024-12-08 | Choice: dolphins | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questi... | buccaneers | 0 | nfl-tb-lac-2024-12-15 | Buccaneers vs. Chargers | 65,529,068 | 65,529,068 |
33173cecdb21832f120796aab34d00963ed145a9 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x300b2aba414e34ab494165e4baa2c06b9476e1c61b0b2b397a3f1671bb23a259 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Browns vs. Steelers | Event: nfl-cle-pit-2024-12-08 | Choice: browns | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jets vs. Dolphins | Event: nfl-nyj-mia-2024-12-08 | Choice: dolphins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Panthers vs. Eagles | Event: nfl-car-phi-2024-12-08 | Choice: eagles | Confidence: 0.0
4. Que... | eagles | 0 | nfl-pit-phi-2024-12-15 | Steelers vs. Eagles | 65,529,638 | 65,535,728 |
53b7d6e37dda45e30de4a33dc7df4ab277337777 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xe8d828509d37dbe31969df369609c35198bc0a35cb45353f78fe6e294d20e6ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jets vs. Dolphins | Event: nfl-nyj-mia-2024-12-08 | Choice: dolphins | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Panthers vs. Eagles | Event: nfl-car-phi-2024-12-08 | Choice: eagles | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Seahawks vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-sea-ari-2024-12-08 | Choice: cardinals | Confidence: 0.0
... | bulls | 0 | nba-chi-tor-2024-12-16 | Bulls vs. Raptors | 65,547,761 | 65,547,761 |
51581f0b5988585ab0019e3b2b325701c48707a8 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xb424222083a52ab8ef0dcbed6b0929feaabcf03d375b2d65b52fcb9662cf9cd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panthers vs. Eagles | Event: nfl-car-phi-2024-12-08 | Choice: eagles | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Seahawks vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-sea-ari-2024-12-08 | Choice: cardinals | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bucks vs. Nets | Event: nba-mil-bkn-2024-12-08 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
4. Que... | kings | 0 | nba-den-sac-2024-12-16 | Nuggets vs. Kings | 65,552,132 | 65,584,289 |
1016ae9e6321c4ebc437202f95b1665eb8b0a7f5 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x17d6cbaee112a1d166a92cc0724424976c5230cd392111531f8b1e1d355e0a45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Seahawks vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-sea-ari-2024-12-08 | Choice: cardinals | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bucks vs. Nets | Event: nba-mil-bkn-2024-12-08 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bills vs. Rams | Event: nfl-buf-la-2024-12-08 | Choice: bills | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: ... | 76ers | 0 | nba-phi-cha-2024-12-16 | 76ers vs. Hornets | 65,572,447 | 65,579,446 |
100d7affb7b4d26bfc869e7673514352d956f679 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x08525a7c4dbb3f519f166df1209db2bf274cfdc194b5a4c8f5a1461b63392d1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bucks vs. Nets | Event: nba-mil-bkn-2024-12-08 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bills vs. Rams | Event: nfl-buf-la-2024-12-08 | Choice: bills | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Nuggets vs. Hawks | Event: nba-den-atl-2024-12-08 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: Hornets v... | heat | 0 | nba-mia-det-2024-12-16 | Heat vs. Pistons | 65,573,127 | 65,579,526 |
dd648c4d89fa04c5bb6958092f5e26eeae2b9ba6 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x626b21f1757ebbc66adae12bf5ac254e59138347b2651e33d923dd719548ecc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bills vs. Rams | Event: nfl-buf-la-2024-12-08 | Choice: bills | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Nuggets vs. Hawks | Event: nba-den-atl-2024-12-08 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hornets vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cha-ind-2024-12-08 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: Cav... | oilers | 0 | nhl-fla-edm-2024-12-16 | Panthers vs. Oilers | 65,577,995 | 65,582,792 |
2049d523b6e73cf6ee534887f7846835dd764adf | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x02f2683295174a9fa7c44df7e39956c6c57e90537c0d07f4402f98d929fc54f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nuggets vs. Hawks | Event: nba-den-atl-2024-12-08 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hornets vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cha-ind-2024-12-08 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Heat | Event: nba-cle-mia-2024-12-08 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Ques... | avalanche | 0 | nhl-col-van-2024-12-16 | Avalanche vs. Canucks | 65,578,322 | 65,585,299 |
a01b31dbf3461404bcc1b15b54e9e91673e6c06a | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xfaa1318a4331023d1ebe1b5846d77e500595d77853f6692cada85dd34a6cafa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hornets vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cha-ind-2024-12-08 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Cavaliers vs. Heat | Event: nba-cle-mia-2024-12-08 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Suns vs. Magic | Event: nba-phx-orl-2024-12-08 | Choice: magic | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questio... | blackhawks | 0 | nhl-wsh-chi-2024-12-17 | Capitals vs. Blackhawks | 65,618,218 | 65,618,218 |
97142f2be376d1e49826653b1f76efa126068471 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x7b39a3d7437cfeda0ab690268acced49b7c387f7afd3db905fa332602541879c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Cavaliers vs. Heat | Event: nba-cle-mia-2024-12-08 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Suns vs. Magic | Event: nba-phx-orl-2024-12-08 | Choice: magic | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Chargers vs. Chiefs | Event: nfl-lac-kc-2024-12-08 | Choice: chargers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questi... | kraken | 0 | nhl-ott-sea-2024-12-17 | Senators vs. Kraken | 65,620,137 | 65,624,420 |
1fe3d9599c6688510afe48c2484036275ceb7e8d | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xbb8dcec6744a0c48a03e242c3a4a182d86a501fe50acac660f88eb2ba8892971 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Suns vs. Magic | Event: nba-phx-orl-2024-12-08 | Choice: magic | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Chargers vs. Chiefs | Event: nfl-lac-kc-2024-12-08 | Choice: chargers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pelicans vs. Spurs | Event: nba-nop-sas-2024-12-08 | Choice: pelicans | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questio... | raptors | 0.160396 | nba-bkn-tor-2024-12-19 | Nets vs. Raptors | 65,688,897 | 65,695,975 |
174875d76f5b83eb0e21dcc757200d18c308caff | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x0fc20e2e7d1b43059823dab797a936dcb9aced1b2a0b31997f89ec80a56c9430 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Chargers vs. Chiefs | Event: nfl-lac-kc-2024-12-08 | Choice: chargers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Pelicans vs. Spurs | Event: nba-nop-sas-2024-12-08 | Choice: pelicans | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Timberwolves vs. Warriors | Event: nba-min-gsw-2024-12-08 | Choice: timberwolves | Confiden... | hornets | 0.103448 | nba-cha-was-2024-12-19 | Hornets vs. Wizards | 65,695,975 | 65,695,975 |
174e2c1d6338ff0b9ede83cff0eea782af2d8ef3 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x2b0ea8b53e9dd9d99bdba66a5b209436535b253c024f721e5a94a43520ff6a91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Spurs | Event: nba-nop-sas-2024-12-08 | Choice: pelicans | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Warriors | Event: nba-min-gsw-2024-12-08 | Choice: timberwolves | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Warriors vs. Rockets | Event: nba-gsw-hou-2024-12-11 | Choice: rockets | Confide... | jazz | 0 | nba-uta-det-2024-12-19 | Jazz vs. Pistons | 65,695,975 | 65,695,975 |
73a62e6d385eec259303ed8a787c4490c34f7ee0 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x98b5aa3f813db1fe63d65ea82de03854313fb643e2561ce2b51a1b051b8c293a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Timberwolves vs. Warriors | Event: nba-min-gsw-2024-12-08 | Choice: timberwolves | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Rockets | Event: nba-gsw-hou-2024-12-11 | Choice: rockets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Knicks | Event: nba-atl-nyk-2024-12-11 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: ... | penguins | 0 | nhl-pit-nsh-2024-12-19 | Penguins vs. Predators | 65,695,975 | 65,695,975 |
835ecd65d998d00cac4f0c79f4105f16bb30d1e4 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xcd54944be362c966902eb0d368f46e8c044e6595f71a76f480497816ff80c503 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Warriors vs. Rockets | Event: nba-gsw-hou-2024-12-11 | Choice: rockets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hawks vs. Knicks | Event: nba-atl-nyk-2024-12-11 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Rams vs. 49ers | Event: nfl-la-sf-2024-12-12 | Choice: 49ers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: Sen... | bulls | 0.264706 | nba-chi-bos-2024-12-19 | Bulls vs. Celtics | 65,695,975 | 65,695,975 |
01c022681f294783ffb5c242467c43eb7506b100 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x575768d67dda782f6045d9dc31c5c5f97927758b5cba938fc1142fff50553334 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hawks vs. Knicks | Event: nba-atl-nyk-2024-12-11 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Rams vs. 49ers | Event: nfl-la-sf-2024-12-12 | Choice: 49ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Senators vs. Hurricanes | Event: nhl-ott-car-2024-12-13 | Choice: hurricanes | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questio... | broncos | 0 | nfl-den-lac-2024-12-19 | Broncos vs. Chargers | 65,695,975 | 65,702,315 |
93db211d4f4c95b8a46a2a5bb499dbe9ac42210b | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x074b0e01739e66ac3613434fdbfe28d5d18e4787f25d4a7efa84baf7e6ae3840 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. 49ers | Event: nfl-la-sf-2024-12-12 | Choice: 49ers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Senators vs. Hurricanes | Event: nhl-ott-car-2024-12-13 | Choice: hurricanes | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Clippers vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-lac-den-2024-12-13 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
4. ... | hawks | 0 | nba-atl-sas-2024-12-19 | Hawks vs. Spurs | 65,696,308 | 65,696,308 |
f2f9cb5f24733ee3356e6af7491fed39c96df46a | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x839825a5d78b2511444f643b1e12fd75651e47f697cf5fae63c64f2dcac4b67c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Senators vs. Hurricanes | Event: nhl-ott-car-2024-12-13 | Choice: hurricanes | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-lac-den-2024-12-13 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Suns vs. Jazz | Event: nba-phx-uta-2024-12-13 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 0.0
4. ... | clippers | 0 | nba-lac-dal-2024-12-19 | Clippers vs. Mavericks | 65,696,308 | 65,701,529 |
fafd37c8b49a1e272a80f26440cab550ba81a485 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xa8cdb8a327998e080180df6fd5626495b565d118f372edac89971ab0a6545fb8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Clippers vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-lac-den-2024-12-13 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Suns vs. Jazz | Event: nba-phx-uta-2024-12-13 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Blackhawks vs. Devils | Event: nhl-chi-nj-2024-12-14 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 0.0
4. Que... | knicks | 0 | nba-nyk-min-2024-12-19 | Knicks vs. Timberwolves | 65,696,519 | 65,696,519 |
ac028e6b3d7b326adf7943bcd514c437b1469ebe | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xd6df03a9366e405d3cce96c142cf6c3c70c1372479b8a660857b595d2be30194 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Suns vs. Jazz | Event: nba-phx-uta-2024-12-13 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Blackhawks vs. Devils | Event: nhl-chi-nj-2024-12-14 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Bucks | Event: nba-atl-mil-2024-12-14 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: R... | kings | 0.325967 | nhl-lak-phi-2024-12-19 | Kings vs. Flyers | 65,696,519 | 65,696,519 |
85a78d2a57e55860ff6de558de24de2162406ff6 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x1c8937cafa83df4c6aabef9f530bfd85c2bf71360dc62b964cad5ddfc3c4036b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blackhawks vs. Devils | Event: nhl-chi-nj-2024-12-14 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hawks vs. Bucks | Event: nba-atl-mil-2024-12-14 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Rockets vs. Thunder | Event: nba-hou-okc-2024-12-14 | Choice: rockets | Confidence: 0.0
4. Qu... | pacers | 0 | nba-ind-phx-2024-12-19 | Pacers vs. Suns | 65,697,553 | 65,702,526 |
b1b6724a2ccdec0bfe5aac1317d9148b7f476593 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x74bc7f2c7bc0b1f73f091289b9f4c2fd4594564683c9e0ecdf228de1a61a8359 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hawks vs. Bucks | Event: nba-atl-mil-2024-12-14 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Rockets vs. Thunder | Event: nba-hou-okc-2024-12-14 | Choice: rockets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bengals vs. Titans | Event: nfl-cin-ten-2024-12-15 | Choice: bengals | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questio... | kings | 0 | nba-lal-sac-2024-12-19 | Lakers vs. Kings | 65,697,553 | 65,704,321 |
555c2b582d5d9d7c61dd6821bb0c07582545276d | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xb1666d2253925dc284c9713e50326802a0d4f80e1dc5ea2df1e492ef3ae26364 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockets vs. Thunder | Event: nba-hou-okc-2024-12-14 | Choice: rockets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bengals vs. Titans | Event: nfl-cin-ten-2024-12-15 | Choice: bengals | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Jets vs. Jaguars | Event: nfl-nyj-jax-2024-12-15 | Choice: jaguars | Confidence: 0.0
4. Ques... | flames | 0 | nhl-ott-cal-2024-12-19 | Senators vs. Flames | 65,698,455 | 65,698,455 |
6b94054aa17f23edd5d923906d50e8ed562f358c | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x2c73892544e0e0ddf5a4902dc9f7cc8f1c749e7176fb830f54f611aa4925faa1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bengals vs. Titans | Event: nfl-cin-ten-2024-12-15 | Choice: bengals | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jets vs. Jaguars | Event: nfl-nyj-jax-2024-12-15 | Choice: jaguars | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Dolphins vs. Texans | Event: nfl-mia-hou-2024-12-15 | Choice: dolphins | Confidence: 0.0
4. Que... | bruins | 0 | nhl-bos-edm-2024-12-19 | Bruins vs. Oilers | 65,699,019 | 65,702,835 |
bc13e41a7fe8006ef0e94162063d86673f2ce056 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xa7daef6673ca1dd4321e92c6790b8fde054fb4bc6c8aff5103e0017e0f9b21e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jets vs. Jaguars | Event: nfl-nyj-jax-2024-12-15 | Choice: jaguars | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Dolphins vs. Texans | Event: nfl-mia-hou-2024-12-15 | Choice: dolphins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cowboys vs. Panthers | Event: nfl-dal-car-2024-12-15 | Choice: cowboys | Confidence: 0.0
4. Q... | blues | 0 | nhl-stl-fla-2024-12-20 | Blues vs. Panthers | 65,736,147 | 65,736,147 |
28ced657aaffb58b1e61e0a503da94d4d1608f80 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x1fb6489d850c3719826916b30fca767bc1e442e5903c6542c50a855049f4692b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dolphins vs. Texans | Event: nfl-mia-hou-2024-12-15 | Choice: dolphins | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Cowboys vs. Panthers | Event: nfl-dal-car-2024-12-15 | Choice: cowboys | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bills vs. Lions | Event: nfl-buf-det-2024-12-15 | Choice: bills | Confidence: 0.0
4. Ques... | avalanche | 0 | nhl-col-ana-2024-12-20 | Avalanche vs. Ducks | 65,738,002 | 65,744,752 |
6aba197984c65a085767b921ff41af541aee83d0 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x82afd97ab4f9cedbac462188d63efd1dae400f909b37473faea8a250b197b70f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Cowboys vs. Panthers | Event: nfl-dal-car-2024-12-15 | Choice: cowboys | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bills vs. Lions | Event: nfl-buf-det-2024-12-15 | Choice: bills | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Commanders vs. Saints | Event: nfl-was-no-2024-12-15 | Choice: commanders | Confidence: 0.0
4. Q... | kings | 0 | nhl-lak-nsh-2024-12-21 | Kings vs. Predators | 65,769,494 | 65,780,352 |
94f35d90bf81a8de697cc1fe3a24ebc927d15ef1 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xf6ea0a571a43a122471e1c7604d6bd8c267082a39758bdd8162dbfae0cd8d137 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bills vs. Lions | Event: nfl-buf-det-2024-12-15 | Choice: bills | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Commanders vs. Saints | Event: nfl-was-no-2024-12-15 | Choice: commanders | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Colts vs. Broncos | Event: nfl-ind-den-2024-12-15 | Choice: broncos | Confidence: 0.0
4. Ques... | chiefs | 0 | nfl-hou-kc-2024-12-21 | Texans vs. Chiefs | 65,769,494 | 65,780,352 |
d0f44b3bf36e7ee00f137b57ad06ebe7d767f9d3 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x9abc0ce65a7523a36c48246f494faece90921257adea18b4352680aa3f758848 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Commanders vs. Saints | Event: nfl-was-no-2024-12-15 | Choice: commanders | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Colts vs. Broncos | Event: nfl-ind-den-2024-12-15 | Choice: broncos | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Buccaneers vs. Chargers | Event: nfl-tb-lac-2024-12-15 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence:... | hurricanes | 0 | nhl-car-nyr-2024-12-22 | Hurricanes vs. Rangers | 65,800,745 | 65,804,000 |
b5cb13b6a18d258ab4c4046fde1a02eb99ae157d | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x1e0c69bf84fb76fd9cd2a0a78f1db98b3883d6aeb2db2ff0fbd6aa46b2d42670 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Colts vs. Broncos | Event: nfl-ind-den-2024-12-15 | Choice: broncos | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Buccaneers vs. Chargers | Event: nfl-tb-lac-2024-12-15 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Steelers vs. Eagles | Event: nfl-pit-phi-2024-12-15 | Choice: eagles | Confidence: 0.0
... | cardinals | 0 | nfl-ari-car-2024-12-22 | Cardinals vs. Panthers | 65,802,054 | 65,810,202 |
90ee3cbdf42900852deae1d28ce4ccff7ee3a64d | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x976664c5dd93bf33bfb54755c3196fe8ad7668fbb8eabbacc36f435eda38c2cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Buccaneers vs. Chargers | Event: nfl-tb-lac-2024-12-15 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Steelers vs. Eagles | Event: nfl-pit-phi-2024-12-15 | Choice: eagles | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bulls vs. Raptors | Event: nba-chi-tor-2024-12-16 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
4.... | colts | 0 | nfl-ten-ind-2024-12-22 | Titans vs. Colts | 65,802,054 | 65,810,202 |
5476b4cf0255ebd180e9ecab59c93809e15958d6 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xf9e4d261c38d76ad8b7e4b96ae69ffc26b1b0ac87571ac4f4bf2919e6f984a13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Steelers vs. Eagles | Event: nfl-pit-phi-2024-12-15 | Choice: eagles | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bulls vs. Raptors | Event: nba-chi-tor-2024-12-16 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Nuggets vs. Kings | Event: nba-den-sac-2024-12-16 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question:... | jets | 0 | nfl-la-nyj-2024-12-22 | Rams vs. Jets | 65,803,314 | 65,810,202 |
b2662891eac10c0fc3e6ae0db470f215ad3a67b2 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x1620358251a2c9802faafd655dfd2d3bb889350f31bc9a04d8effd6b4275f806 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bulls vs. Raptors | Event: nba-chi-tor-2024-12-16 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Nuggets vs. Kings | Event: nba-den-sac-2024-12-16 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: 76ers vs. Hornets | Event: nba-phi-cha-2024-12-16 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: He... | jaguars | 0 | nfl-jax-lv-2024-12-22 | Jaguars vs. Raiders | 65,810,795 | 65,810,795 |
c88332a282ffb961ff19830da082cdd047cb35c3 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x2b9758dcac0363ac92acef032919288108042dfdff35acff03b1c4a1000a0ba3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nuggets vs. Kings | Event: nba-den-sac-2024-12-16 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Hornets | Event: nba-phi-cha-2024-12-16 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Heat vs. Pistons | Event: nba-mia-det-2024-12-16 | Choice: heat | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: Pant... | lightning | 0 | nhl-fla-tb-2024-12-22 | Panthers vs. Lightning | 65,810,795 | 65,810,795 |
eb06097bb58b1f682a12a54f8ac0e28befca6ef2 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xcec87ce0f17fd9f682e8e1ffbf16c7b4770524cd601665722d9520912d567624 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 76ers vs. Hornets | Event: nba-phi-cha-2024-12-16 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Heat vs. Pistons | Event: nba-mia-det-2024-12-16 | Choice: heat | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Panthers vs. Oilers | Event: nhl-fla-edm-2024-12-16 | Choice: oilers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: A... | vikings | 0.005319 | nfl-min-sea-2024-12-22 | Vikings vs. Seahawks | 65,810,795 | 65,810,795 |
789e998f7c521611627d2a8fe86900f1bf62c5a7 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xfe7bc87933b19a799f614489959078ed6c905dcd79e30927ab01233b718181b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Heat vs. Pistons | Event: nba-mia-det-2024-12-16 | Choice: heat | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Panthers vs. Oilers | Event: nhl-fla-edm-2024-12-16 | Choice: oilers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Avalanche vs. Canucks | Event: nhl-col-van-2024-12-16 | Choice: avalanche | Confidence: 0.0
4. Que... | raptors | 0 | nba-hou-tor-2024-12-22 | Rockets vs. Raptors | 65,810,795 | 65,810,795 |
47aab6a0ab7ceab87389055da04e82cdd2003603 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x0c771280383da50a54226450e5366b8459cd3c134f78d05bdaba6f9bd72a9ff2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panthers vs. Oilers | Event: nhl-fla-edm-2024-12-16 | Choice: oilers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Avalanche vs. Canucks | Event: nhl-col-van-2024-12-16 | Choice: avalanche | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Capitals vs. Blackhawks | Event: nhl-wsh-chi-2024-12-17 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidenc... | kings | 0 | nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Pacers vs. Kings | 65,810,795 | 65,812,273 |
9e36fba4f0c514a1560d5d9984c14ef7be0427ac | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xb77c2f3caadad837e5f5d1a5f8cda62e955a04fb3111ef97c02395df04106ff0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Avalanche vs. Canucks | Event: nhl-col-van-2024-12-16 | Choice: avalanche | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Capitals vs. Blackhawks | Event: nhl-wsh-chi-2024-12-17 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Senators vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-ott-sea-2024-12-17 | Choice: kraken | Confidenc... | 49ers | 0 | nfl-sf-mia-2024-12-22 | 49ers vs. Dolphins | 65,810,795 | 65,815,549 |
e79b4f13e8c29f404195d4c3079e27a0ed321251 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x72a09a7619a35b29c458ec2163ffe32959243eb0dc4a3bb8170eb5ea9bc05cc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Capitals vs. Blackhawks | Event: nhl-wsh-chi-2024-12-17 | Choice: blackhawks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Senators vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-ott-sea-2024-12-17 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Nets vs. Raptors | Event: nba-bkn-tor-2024-12-19 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 0.16... | nuggets | 0 | nba-den-nop-2024-12-22 | Nuggets vs. Pelicans | 65,812,273 | 65,815,583 |
f4cfbb5366b611942af6eaa8a9fd833e7e4d78cb | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x90143ea8b567caeff7163731ede3332b238452fa2042dedf49c90a4c9ec4c28d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Senators vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-ott-sea-2024-12-17 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Nets vs. Raptors | Event: nba-bkn-tor-2024-12-19 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 0.1603960396039604
3. Question: Hornets vs. Wizards | Event: nba-cha-was-2024-12-19 | Choice: hornets | Confiden... | oilers | 0 | nhl-ott-edm-2024-12-22 | Senators vs. Oilers | 65,815,583 | 65,835,889 |
365ca9b6c5e9866de5c67eb4e54cd7a34a76fe32 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x36e0e52e80503d95f328713a64234abcea8a76b541a91cee23ab383d04d32a7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nets vs. Raptors | Event: nba-bkn-tor-2024-12-19 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 0.1603960396039604
2. Question: Hornets vs. Wizards | Event: nba-cha-was-2024-12-19 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.10344827586206896
3. Question: Jazz vs. Pistons | Event: nba-uta-det-2024-12-19 | Choice: jazz... | devils | 0 | nhl-nyr-nj-2024-12-23 | Rangers vs. Devils | 65,835,917 | 65,850,139 |
90d8ba549eec3b1b95cd4fa694f41323c6daf536 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0x7e7218bfe76bab86f94f964c2675fd691bb25e294772f47d7e41764fa879877b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hornets vs. Wizards | Event: nba-cha-was-2024-12-19 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.10344827586206896
2. Question: Jazz vs. Pistons | Event: nba-uta-det-2024-12-19 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Penguins vs. Predators | Event: nhl-pit-nsh-2024-12-19 | Choice: penguins | Confi... | bucks | 0.000097 | nba-mil-chi-2024-12-23 | Bucks vs. Bulls | 65,852,745 | 65,852,745 |
20395e1e1ae882c0b112974c8617fef4dd732d76 | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xd896c47285f6b1fd1c3d9fc8bc5380ce89243cd06eef38733fcb2d6fafd15c90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jazz vs. Pistons | Event: nba-uta-det-2024-12-19 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Penguins vs. Predators | Event: nhl-pit-nsh-2024-12-19 | Choice: penguins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bulls vs. Celtics | Event: nba-chi-bos-2024-12-19 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.26470588235... | flyers | 0 | nhl-phi-pit-2024-12-23 | Flyers vs. Penguins | 65,852,745 | 65,852,745 |
f7f6c0fa6bac4e499a6867d3a51e78a93997d6af | 0x02c16dde6676c162caffde5be7735b9a648046a6 | 0xc09fa2f3e282b51f180fb8de064c49f3d709580c4de93ee144b1ab166d915786 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Penguins vs. Predators | Event: nhl-pit-nsh-2024-12-19 | Choice: penguins | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bulls vs. Celtics | Event: nba-chi-bos-2024-12-19 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.2647058823529412
3. Question: Broncos vs. Chargers | Event: nfl-den-lac-2024-12-19 | Choice: broncos | Con... | 76ers | 0 | nba-sas-phi-2024-12-23 | Spurs vs. 76ers | 65,852,745 | 65,858,465 |
c79549dbf5e2d6a658cfce3775cc46bcb437d7e2 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x6e019ff7eecf303821312f03875faea2c40cfe7e4ba90e6de45139a36f5a039d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5?
Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | 58,808,146 | 59,258,624 |
368bf9716991d6955e97e70fe9331caa602c846a | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x3ef9126295d8488f5894c1987641f39b77554b4b20d241da2ab02c35fd0acdc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC?
Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc
Predict the user's choice and confidence... | no | 0 | democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | 59,258,645 | 60,797,884 |
0d189db26bb2cfea352595c50c6e7efff1f7ada8 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x02ed4b469eeb6e693b636bc8e7c54636de45f499bcc8f7853436d908d8fcabfc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Quest... | no | 0 | will-hilary-clinton-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Hillary Clinton say "Woman president" at DNC speech? | 60,804,088 | 60,804,088 |
a5e8305cfde3b1d46b27adfdb48ebfa3acd2a3ff | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x480921c991e11413aef9374c5dea12faa66d803d3c7ce8c576f16ba0bc573d6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | will-hilary-clinton-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Hillary Clinton say "Email" at DNC speech? | 60,804,088 | 60,804,088 |
b093b99cb1183e397947e1dfe59b84c4139fa9b8 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x4b69a265f87b35c5300a30b24813902f2c64982be0b20dcaf139a1e7ac47e0ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | will-hilary-clinton-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Hillary Clinton say "Palestine" at DNC speech? | 60,804,088 | 60,804,088 |
906edca0fcdc03e39d5b1b33c47b4920f70b9f47 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xdb948653f6291c99eea9ee7099e43facd17121f9dc6ee6a1576d091044a33d15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Obama say "Michelle" at DNC speech? | 60,804,088 | 60,845,994 |
7a90a0592bda5ab0ea6d0eda92297e0c80b48f21 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x7e41c93255ad64a022a9573aaedaf213d811e44f1e2781af889124a80d12752b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Obama say "Democracy" 3 or more times at DNC speech? | 60,804,088 | 60,848,928 |
8cdc84b80444cd88df6a694f4b7a7f73aa301864 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xc55d8f9bd072815942a0e01c934c9bc29f5b16ec792d3aa8a0b06e6942d06f09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Obama say "Muslim" at DNC speech? | 60,804,088 | 60,849,649 |
cad26b65640016e0a9f2db8f58929e4a52f92fec | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xd69205c8428e274da0b654446971b8492d900bfcf4624065096956b2532429f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Obama say "Climate change" at DNC speech? | 60,804,088 | 60,849,649 |
4a0945138327dd27be3cf77d41523fdb3d382f27 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x86dccf9f1e214c635842d72ef822302dd51441c4c011a9a2a0dbeb5472e0c056 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-biden-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Biden say "Folks" three or more times at DNC speech? | 60,805,404 | 60,805,404 |
4cd38a189e2280d4969389bd406d8144729d9f93 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x21552bdde980cd6d6a050084bd50a3835905e940f919857220cf6215d4143444 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | yes | 1 | what-will-biden-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Biden say "Hunter" at DNC speech? | 60,836,161 | 60,836,161 |
119b824928da638d96bdbc16b7417e26b9342ff5 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x04a36062ce4e0012cfe72629ad7a87584610da32282d366bc8ff99a42a141ee5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Obama say "Black" at DNC speech? | 60,836,171 | 60,836,171 |
fca07a3bf794a47c8bb691e564aa8bd6c24520f0 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xdbef486d2b3cbef1611066c959f5e1a66cc9ce12fb746c263a8b24c7ebe49271 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Obama say "Donald Trump" at DNC speech? | 60,843,124 | 60,844,913 |
d017d38dfcf360b7870fa8ba2a286cdaee97331c | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x8389575ecef199cc2d29db27eb01f1e6682ffd3978fe1124fa2c73ec116d46b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Obama say "Joe Biden" at DNC speech? | 60,843,124 | 60,848,928 |
ff1aa9aee49fd8e8d652af825b6bccc73809d668 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x3c76149ce3c35da8199a8a70ec2a4490ee59d142c73f22d0d12760ac656a4290 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Obama say "Hope" at DNC speech? | 60,843,124 | 60,849,649 |
bdeb6b4d8718176a0fe09f0fe7a29344e7f2cc22 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xabfb503ec1e3e612b4557458ad7989ef38780d3ec44a352411c8ca95aae8982c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Will Trump say "tampon" during Wednesday speech? | 60,843,124 | 60,883,554 |
97966dd11d33a4aee794fc4e1ad1fa7afb3b2a20 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xe69c1d551aeb23f71d5b4b09091e51214008b3d1e56f2d27363b1d92ffb3765e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Will Trump say "nuclear" during Wednesday speech? | 60,843,124 | 60,883,554 |
8756f5536bb8cf763bd9f8c2f67b4a04f2249c44 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xd57a20917a643cddab43b9f390e9bca393d23f2689b4f48bdcc799ee36df103a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Will Trump say "ceasefire" during Wednesday speech? | 60,843,125 | 60,843,125 |
882cad1724e0c3d57ec4a4b845303c7d2b439ae1 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x6752e0cb20f7c4d5e612f7b2172838414def6f53a20dc5b7acf07ce88b55321a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Will Trump say "Venezuela" 3 or more times during Wednesday speech? | 60,843,125 | 60,883,554 |
405e5afc5ba1c875441a2bb37906cfd39a39fcb1 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xf0cbe6f3432c49f097011968b583eb1bf03e751ab5d667b479381648fdcd89b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | yes | 0.000012 | what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Will Trump say "Putin" during Wednesday speech? | 60,844,305 | 60,844,305 |
846a1be4377ca99ec38847b44b6ccf6b467ba597 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xa82c49b311b3bb5ff0020c6005f7c3972c4fd179fb448a148e047ee3cff5cf9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Obama say "Thank you" 7 or more times at DNC speech? | 60,844,305 | 60,844,913 |
625914c5586982d4b5f5b3064e8b2bf003d13446 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x04e278d31e0eac4370324151b1daacb519869707c1743d0e77f47be5ecde523a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | yes | 0.605882 | beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend? | 60,844,305 | 61,670,476 |
476dace81e7dd49d01d7e1acd15cc301db206243 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xda6b02132a4739dca455b489aee53df859da5c01809b216be2a026110223f71c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0.333216 | beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | 60,844,913 | 61,670,476 |
e41981aa297d3a5d62338329ae860ed2e2c6fc65 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x2bb1a95867d1f4fb22cff7e61b5206d8eb0c5dc4a357adff89ba408e95610d87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Will Trump say "World War 3" during Wednesday speech? | 60,845,994 | 60,845,994 |
f2e14068907cc3e852efecb2169f4cd638590a5b | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x9d91b92785f0ddb1bf6033ff2ac6de97a70ee44abe19782e1e5dd967af7fc4cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Will Trump say "Zelensky" during Wednesday speech? | 60,850,279 | 60,850,279 |
fbb2b6780a3f319fbc35aa56a71462dff2e6a429 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xc742af29d04c88556ac2aa327d1dc644a08ace04d8dd4b92e05c83d4a1545368 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $95m and $105m opening weekend? | 60,850,279 | 60,850,279 |
1e118f329504556b7c531009d39f996f780b7408 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xde20ba1b4fa2f2aae4e0c2dae0e8e111986743b094952272730607dc9d4cd8e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | rfk-jr-endorses-trump | RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? | 60,850,279 | 60,850,279 |
4711642d349976e70e712b1356e0bfb4f7beb939 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xafe3e68c8db5d7f0496834087b007faeb0afd1bff124ef181f72fc2335606081 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Will Trump say "Iran" 3 or more times during Wednesday speech? | 60,850,279 | 60,883,554 |
fdbf8e7d37d5f63dce99051fea01db6e1f4ed75f | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x4613844d9d74779bfc714a9d8b6e03a81b8a54d2a45adc0bdb4b34f49427050d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Ceasefire" during DNC speech? | 60,850,279 | 60,925,689 |
c448ba65d7b49edbf476fc0c5f8035cfbe42de07 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x14805764b8b1eeecff3d3ca0e02d49be9bd5fe818332750ec267c7988efd2a58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Trump mentioned fewer than 50 times at the DNC today? | 60,850,279 | 61,005,347 |
123050ac563c42ea07edf98941254728240268e7 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1a4f04c2e6c000d9fc524eb12e7333217411a226c34745af140f195c0227cd5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on July 5? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-july-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hil... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Unburdened" during DNC speech? | 60,850,280 | 60,925,689 |
1fe0d4a9c9e1cea303fc2fa1d00783cc94dab1f3 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x04659e7b647f5ddbd0f7a11d63cb9b3c7bd9a28b0ab920cbf030ff0c18342a5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? | Event: democratic-candidates-announce-run-for-president-before-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton say "Woman president" at DNC speech? | Event: will-hilary-clinton-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | ... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Will Trump say "Israel" during Wednesday speech? | 60,883,554 | 60,883,554 |
c3adb2b5109b816ddf2c8b2a25b0fd9d65758c29 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x2f2584a2dd15955b4a257a7211dd049224aff6d65bd8ae62bc5815183a369f56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hillary Clinton say "Woman president" at DNC speech? | Event: will-hilary-clinton-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton say "Email" at DNC speech? | Event: will-hilary-clinton-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Trump mentioned between 75-99 times at the DNC today? | 60,883,554 | 60,883,554 |
bc6cf2978be7b3ada6d67fb05b7568f370670378 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x687d6346923293299ca98e77784b6913a7751764d9c6f44244896f24a5f95dc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hillary Clinton say "Email" at DNC speech? | Event: will-hilary-clinton-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton say "Palestine" at DNC speech? | Event: will-hilary-clinton-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Trump mentioned between 100-124 times at the DNC today? | 60,883,554 | 60,883,554 |
737473dffe5ddfec08e33754940a3200808ef36a | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xd77d4725430f85b562826db285c68527fc4bb2ee85972f9b2020261010422248 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hillary Clinton say "Palestine" at DNC speech? | Event: will-hilary-clinton-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Obama say "Michelle" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Obama say... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" during Wednesday speech? | 60,883,554 | 60,883,554 |
906d159bbcee9704d09ee22dcd6da7302a37cf55 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x589bd413f951e54cf3d0143195915cf61dbbea7e1506a04697bb94103fe105fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Obama say "Michelle" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Obama say "Democracy" 3 or more times at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Obama s... | no | 0 | trump-flips-kamala-on-nate-silvers-bulletin | Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin? | 60,922,977 | 60,922,977 |
1c4754e863517763a135c48d56ed1db54a924f00 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x62bc13a42a7c13083447d0384ffddcd15bdb0b64fdfdddf5815a63dc8301689f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Obama say "Democracy" 3 or more times at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Obama say "Muslim" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Obama say... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Obama" during DNC speech? | 60,922,977 | 60,922,977 |
6bb8c98fa6a1ecbc600bd8c3afaa496528299642 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1c8a4a4de38ae64f120b079474eca7ebfc2cd0e641e30a26bfe1963223fc646e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Obama say "Muslim" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Obama say "Climate change" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Biden say "Folks" th... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Donald" or "Trump" 5 or more times during DNC speech? | 60,922,977 | 60,925,689 |
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