sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3c4435c642355c22ec0352001df9b1febb7715c7 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x4ec8bd98a5e6719bc7cc32116b37a57baec2f70a843a7a15279ccd24419ff769 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | no | 0.000528 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-27 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or higher on November 27? | 79,534,537 | 79,534,537 |
73d0719863264f78b9692d6efa969002f44d23c1 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x455ce0529c47897e5b7f94630dc8cd6ed4a0185243b1a8f3d8ec6441aa29db18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | vanderbilt commodores | 0.000084 | cbb-vand-wkent-2025-11-26 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 79,537,340 | 79,537,340 |
b1276355e53278fc3420c8eeed41655ff383dfe8 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x5926d45fc1d98255da19bb85eee900082ec287d8f865987d30289cb45085e9e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | over | 0 | cs2-red9-faze-2025-11-26 | Games Total: O/U 2.5 | 79,537,462 | 79,537,992 |
ba92c1a411e9af7ae6cbed9329140e3de365a0b6 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xd8953416d29b368433e7a5988bb1a077cd74402ea6430ccc1f0e6d3a6999939f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | g2 gozen | 0.000015 | val-mibrf-g2-2025-11-27 | Valorant: MIBR Female vs G2 Gozen (BO3) | 79,564,438 | 79,565,339 |
e3f308928194390f0da4de9cc99201eedf58ef4c | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x32da5baa6c54a58f774a0014f63e30c3d0def1cb11cf8004934ede0b873b6e90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | yes | 0.05676 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-27 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 27? | 79,564,452 | 79,583,014 |
ca0640124039bb4e699c244582cec93a627b9a11 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x89a0ccf2f79d3854fc9ad627d0fba8b17f4a76eabbc7e5bb384b5d81b6aea548 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | karmine corp gc | 0 | val-kc1-kru-2025-11-27 | Valorant: Karmine Corp GC vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) | 79,570,010 | 79,576,320 |
9a2a25ffda0d3f526a1ac0c945b6fdce4fca1f61 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x815f33e2583151e83a0ea55d33125612f1520a244da5ac21853e2b5e38c4f96c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | no | 0.000015 | solana-above-on-november-27 | Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 27? | 79,571,580 | 79,571,580 |
525c2cb2dbb319720d5cb87ae9244e4484707885 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x9ce7af390d48b7285d474fd6a3f2151a0ea790d58ddf8dab94915a2da7955c57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | sri lanka | 0.000004 | t20-pak-sri-2025-11-27 | Pakistan Tri-Series: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Game 5) | 79,574,037 | 79,578,182 |
72b1809fb36d107f339bdc89b38dbfdfd9c81113 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xbf1a4f2b75bbd40d289b1f9a72e1ff2b8499347e96ddcbafbf2f9cd241cb1dda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | xtreme gaming | 0.000023 | dota2-xtreme-navi-2025-11-27 | Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO1) | 79,574,189 | 79,574,189 |
9a295468524566e7bbcf760fd9a5da6e733e364e | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xe33e2d4083e4d27f8eac400130725f8c75458595dacf22ae87b64a34051dfd1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | yakult brothers | 0.000013 | dota2-ty-yak-2025-11-27 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Yakult Brothers (BO1) | 79,576,681 | 79,577,277 |
9dccc105af73fcf0a1db837523a8f292db9fb0e5 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x57b6477f1a56b05bc619000a0ec6fe201919414343ce6e25251bda2e49d4eb0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | furman paladins | 0 | cbb-rich-furman-2025-11-27 | Richmond Spiders vs. Furman Paladins | 79,577,595 | 79,577,595 |
8af635fdc1dcf51785ed6dfebe9c4902389243d1 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xe8b22d44cfdcf2a785f149347af3d7bf6bca8c7431583ba2149e11f07d1c327d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | lions | 0.000015 | nfl-gb-det-2025-11-27 | Spread: Lions (-2.5) | 79,584,053 | 79,584,053 |
a0b85a7576a0e1e563491cadf1804d30069f07f7 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xb988357538484a59b14d52586a38fdac19f5159500e5f28202cebcb1aa15daa6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | team liquid brazil | 0.000053 | val-tl-srg-2025-11-28 | Valorant: Team Liquid Brazil vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO3) | 79,608,364 | 79,610,617 |
34db6d51fa88d90791cc1bfab595a72a51246b26 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xd29d33858d21e3952267a28e2f0609b427d2cd6d7df6022972ff4284d144674d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | mibr female | 0.000014 | val-mibrf-kru-2025-11-28 | Valorant: MIBR Female vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) | 79,613,122 | 79,615,191 |
8c7ee5d023fed42958da158a26c1fb43321cc774 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xf2501ff9d6915ecf8ec9f72926a2368657b9d03a7ca8eed28db9bfb9f9c94981 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | tundra esports | 0.000044 | dota2-tundra-xtreme-2025-11-28 | Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) | 79,617,173 | 79,617,766 |
2b894366e74b704cc9377e3ff7f3bda1d721d718 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xe7e402e5b05e4dbe3c3e7fc3e26659a16b0890c4feae8c4a61e02469cb0b2141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | execration | 0 | dota2-flc-xctn-2025-11-28 | Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration (BO1) | 79,618,016 | 79,618,016 |
644b294c940a46fecf45fd1f3adc2313c81b49f8 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xc126ef0f06a452eb8ba4dff594016dc64eb43892b0f178e8972b306d744f979c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | og | 0.000009 | dota2-ty-og-2025-11-28 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO1) | 79,618,951 | 79,619,842 |
fc21855e0bccdf8128ef046351a990d8be1f9a0e | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xd28d4d90d7509c8527bd7e4118625b5db02442f80edb05d3d6d6b5feaf7a67c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | heroic | 0 | dota2-heroic-tt2-2025-11-28 | Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Tidebound (BO1) | 79,619,665 | 79,621,052 |
ec272528c37f27dfd18e99a3e38256be26fe0c11 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x695971554d6d0261b7414242c77c467d10485c7149b438e3cc62d57099787f1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | mississippi state | 0 | cfb-miss-mspst-2025-11-28 | Spread: Ole Miss (-7.5) | 79,624,510 | 79,650,104 |
9348fa22a74d734bfd79b98031d363c3966819eb | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x46abe60225b9e5994a06c3a0da7236eaf4b4f7367059d39e83697ac9f84428de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | connecticut huskies | 0 | cbb-ill-uconn-2025-11-28 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Connecticut Huskies | 79,625,751 | 79,625,751 |
37cd75ae08fa26bb013e8b6be32bb609bac8d719 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x85a6a44b1033c0071327642f83fd2b43628a38de91f8989078b4e55e124d66f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | team yandex | 0 | dota2-xtreme-ty-2025-11-28 | Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) | 79,626,515 | 79,626,515 |
772cf3557c3dae83d2a4c8fd46e3d44fff9ae7c2 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x1899aa2b5b4d73b5705d8789846d2097211cb8b247612f58dfbc83668e518468 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | marquette golden eagles | 0.000433 | cbb-marq-okl-2025-11-28 | Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Oklahoma Sooners | 79,626,923 | 79,626,923 |
0f72edbaba87a26e1eb69955cf95b053410c939c | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xaff9fbd4a1752dcafe2723b5379d1827a407a10fb107f50714616b8932a57f29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | bears | 0 | nfl-chi-phi-2025-11-28 | Spread: Eagles (-7.5) | 79,627,897 | 79,627,897 |
961b1d75c426d3ecbe514408ca2a1bc5abb8390f | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xb48e8b1abdccd2baabf519286b5a4b83caf7619ba9290d3d5f37e1f08b145e5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | new mexico | 0 | cfb-sdst-nmx-2025-11-28 | San Diego State vs. New Mexico | 79,629,216 | 79,629,216 |
37ad3fb8c840378c28ade29189cbfc525e88ac18 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xd5bbbb10519100f887c7afff4cda7a46305172b500f42a4132b24af1cdb9a23a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | como 1907 | 0 | sea-com-sas-2025-11-28-more-markets | Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) | 79,629,635 | 79,629,635 |
a25ebc0ef56e4e1822173be7f37831d7b01fcfcc | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x344c1f66db49d3c7760922cd24d7093e57bdf0c820d43255295921e35b1bb453 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | shopify rebellion gold | 0.000021 | val-srg-mibrf-2025-11-29 | Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs MIBR Female (BO5) | 79,651,267 | 79,652,297 |
f42e0fac90e685481ed6d4dff0be669ae80c09b4 | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0xd526e800fe170fa56fbd0134e9a7639c2a23a45ca19b4cab344811d2b228d106 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner
Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | putin | 0.789474 | russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | 44,273,286 | 44,273,286 |
f03001995998ac5869ae817c0c19533046cef51c | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0x224a999ec39399e6e35f6061eb0b737292d5bb5d8513e7983c150fe64a146166 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
Target market:
Question: Will EthCC be postponed?
Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice"... | yes | 0.717051 | will-ethcc-be-postponed | Will EthCC be postponed? | 44,724,618 | 45,206,454 |
dc1d8d36ef2a6a0dc4ccb6bede11fa0dc4b13544 | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0x210a8ab11259c9c02dfcb447af997f190789daae18f41e37bc535157146640a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
Target market:
Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15... | yes | 0.330016 | will-twitter-sue-meta-by-july-15 | Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | 44,765,708 | 45,146,241 |
106ff083f180b15a960afc00e99fcfcb40796101 | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0xf8806d9e66ba988c68aaa1a3e4b563c5458f05652efa0b9fa67a787baad3d7ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | no | 0 | will-trump-post-on-threads-by-july-31 | Will Trump post on Threads by July 31? | 44,775,664 | 45,770,705 |
c0bd85c80ff733ce174a51359e918d946bd75e7b | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0x0a012a7d38235e16ea2e2032dbc41d1afbda741f2c2b508108a5d8f861e54b5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | yes | 0.02641 | explosion-at-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-by-july-12 | Explosion at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant by July 12? | 44,783,440 | 45,146,241 |
42aab1f34d599f4cace459d73a78374c6bea6af1 | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0xd69071637c042168e20dd31660e116f602595256ded67ef53263c8a2433a1ed5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | no | 0 | will-adam22-and-lena-the-plug-break-up-this-month | Will Adam22 and Lena The Plug break up this month? | 44,791,910 | 45,770,705 |
e06341acb86df30542dc315d4311ba56b15e8346 | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0x3c419c4c7e5fbbd26ec8f5c21d97b31913776b161b90a8ff42a22abaea7578a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | no | 0 | will-xrp-hit-1-by-july-20 | Will $XRP hit $1 by July 20? | 45,057,500 | 45,395,617 |
5b469544a3480eec3aae1865858f799288ff0cd5 | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0x2c596055db7832148ab475fad5fee728780afda7f5543c736bc4cb611f1272a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | yes | 0.000001 | binance-insolvent-in-2023 | Binance insolvent in 2023? | 45,236,047 | 45,346,022 |
af770a4d9a3b8b24ee599616f137c95573b45b73 | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0xd8ff7cab2fc09d69d8fdf67b18038afe98c18a9785bb0a32306b195f5949c145 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | yes | 0.079051 | explosion-at-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-by-july-31 | Explosion at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant by July 31? | 45,262,338 | 45,335,240 |
c31428f85f652c450fb822c2f9d9645721ffda51 | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0xdbd5ef06074cbbee6a4614acf330e5048c80176f27f076e351217f221ad37a7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | no | 0 | another-north-korea-missile-test-by-july-31 | Another North Korea missile test by July 31? | 45,320,873 | 45,320,873 |
9bdbe389dfdaf7c46d9a6f9641100711e56027ac | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0x1df86bfcf976730163fa458e8954eee0f242f604eae9ad67116e621f443a24d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | no | 0 | north-korea-nuke-by | North Korea nuke by August 15? | 45,320,917 | 46,591,445 |
11f1b94e126a9c9f391290a3c2b7af5e385d06ea | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0x9e7d60f4a9bcbbc6e601af9e9495d194f9232826ad3cfe13dc6235c072883cf6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | no | 0 | biden-additional-aid-to-ukraine-by-july-31 | Biden additional aid to Ukraine by July 31? | 45,334,142 | 45,344,560 |
4e3f098dee42323013ef1f4759a75354527046a7 | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0x447184049a516d0210ddddf67092443a171c58144236aea9f375b61b67a61f69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | no | 0 | will-donald-trump-realdonaldtrump-tweet-by-september-30 | Will Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) tweet by September 30? | 45,334,316 | 46,723,969 |
dedf426bc28b644e5a53b1e87b4e025090a2f8d4 | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0xfcd617e1a21d605fd4564368546ac29a245a38b1d5a399238ac7c9280ae0c99e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | no | 0 | will-opensea-announce-a-token-by-september-30 | Will OpenSea announce a token by September 30? | 45,335,340 | 47,339,453 |
aad2448c50c2bead96c791e151547711bb8518c7 | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0xe12d41d1fb36c22427d0ef1d28b0586dcb53226b69e86c05d6d6501d012fe680 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | no | 0 | will-a-liv-golfer-win-the-open | Will a LIV Golfer win The Open? | 45,335,898 | 45,531,860 |
5f7c78f506a4df01860ddfb676da60d89faae925 | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0x9b66ff87f413445e38b2c230a5887964d99c7dff1be5d3283da2cf76d95cfa81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | yes | 0.983608 | will-twitter-announce-bankruptcy-in-2023 | Will Twitter announce bankruptcy in 2023? | 45,349,217 | 45,349,217 |
b89ea7ae28f7858ed8d6a0b377144311d1e9f787 | 0x0213adcff53d5761d48dc30f849bbb0373587d1b | 0xb1c8e26bdd242d47012a2027d9714bc33c01bbe752f49169c7277bea326bf8ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russian Coup: Putin vs Wagner | Event: russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner | Choice: putin | Confidence: 0.7894736842105263
2. Question: Will EthCC be postponed? | Event: will-ethcc-be-postponed | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7170514842965725
3. Question: Will Twitter sue Meta by July 15? | Event: wi... | no | 0 | will-mitch-mcconnell-still-be-a-senator-on-august-4 | Will Mitch McConnell still be a Senator on August 4? | 45,592,190 | 46,070,199 |
b2382c3426f66771c0968516fd45ddb7eefb323a | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0xddf49ac45f081424c0850388a6a312f03d67a2edd2341c08f4b6bbbea3b05bd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors?
Event: jimmy-butler-trade
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | jimmy-butler-trade | Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | 67,629,621 | 67,629,621 |
7d244578c17a828088aa55f2bc35afd04dd4d3de | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Event: fed-decision-in-september
Predict the user's choice and confidence for ... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,579,031 | 76,579,031 |
e7df1b9e9bb6c88f433de51cda2fb362b4ac96b5 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x53f034b47124979beebaf64b12a4a90279f4a3dd3ecb9546d534acd1ba9afa22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question:... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-turkish-president-on-september-25 | Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25? | 76,929,603 | 76,929,603 |
c02232616adc6e36b310f3a1d5cad3fd1ade02d4 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0xf3f022f426ba10369fea6fb4a5d6f93381fcb5c236c172035db70f7b3fa32959 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-621 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1? | 77,017,287 | 77,017,287 |
987c1b854bd12a81cca367ab7ee4b89f94ac3af1 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x8d76de63eb42cca00847ec009c5f21dfefd7ab684d91840476dbe0b810a9d06d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | yes | 1 | pas-margin-of-victory | Will PAS win by greater than >16% of the vote? | 77,054,936 | 77,054,936 |
fc6ded48931e5559d4e59b4bf34d09459aa30d74 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x85939feba8bce774cf2c49258d9c130d91269ef94dc6cf0276c313568171b56a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-916 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | 77,302,729 | 77,302,729 |
b00bd7f18fd84bbadfba6d7448b6a564e642a122 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x660a3e1f37b55847281946515e1329a62f2fec756096390b7b375368349c215c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-04? | 77,341,462 | 77,341,462 |
0b7a3a435810d83d930d13d513d261bb87ba6fc5 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x14a3dfeba8b22a32feb0f10763db68bc4d2abeb5bff90e9ae20de53793b35a1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | yes | 1 | nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 77,505,236 | 77,505,236 |
52c3be5734930aa65dfb951cadd48187e35c38ce | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0xde99b6f12b185d7febba9384f675976ce5294ea5078c77eb47c5fb4fb5d11ac9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | yes | 1 | most-streamed-song-on-the-life-of-a-showgirl-by-oct-10th | Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Showgirl' on Oct 10th? | 77,510,591 | 77,510,591 |
457a14a750938346c78b9c9f702b039a049e747e | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x4668b63cb67ab4c34184b770186a947e4431d26d71ec8793f889628250f628bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | yes | 1 | when-will-israel-announce-ceasefire | Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9? | 77,554,525 | 77,554,525 |
4ed1b7142fd97b481e593e2805376259172340f4 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x79fc05376749b7ed202af5258ac31cffaa8217d9d462400c8b21972982b57bf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-529 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | 77,595,798 | 77,595,798 |
b6272a3c5370fb4fd21e150d343c253373d17c0f | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x1a69d82ab78bc6b562f7ccea7b6f913d35e2c6ca40d3a986091c80b86541299e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-529 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? | 77,771,375 | 77,771,375 |
e5cd9fb220e554d35d4e89a5977fde0ebec18b15 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x97de92aee4d4c1b4c6f88a9c906f4c945ef8516a9118f3d85862420ade6419dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 0 | will-israel-strike-gaza-on | Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23? | 78,071,282 | 78,211,053 |
c5bb417bd46a034449783ce07ede773e85d7d952 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0xc937a7b568c0861b6274cb6b891810ecfdab112dbe2f42533df5ec4f6d733358 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 1 | irish-presidential-election-catherine-connolly-margin-of-victory | Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by less than 15%? | 78,200,509 | 78,200,509 |
c9d11fd04e595436e0579e51ec1688cc19db7c23 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x4b78f8b6648d53af3f68d088220e847a5e54776736d9baf4deb0677a8e10771c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 0 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-in-october | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October? | 78,207,424 | 78,207,424 |
a0a170d380b2e1a46d5722f7329a9e74e09cf492 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x7d4d6916fa50ad0be01c1c065a6b3ad95f5d444c18fc6b766a99d31173469303 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 0.000044 | netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,262,559 | 78,262,559 |
d7b09802b152430c4cba58e0928aef1045423b0a | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x6c17f56d2b6a236262d4bb48758f8b60e3b34699cceea4818563cbc4094c1a10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | gen.g | 0.00001 | lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner | 78,266,291 | 78,266,428 |
ece49098ab163d4898dc83b340ae83dd2fa9a873 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x4e4a2e3891c4a3a104f1952f2e55f6934e43a3cb453fb3c8f35b6451a5925126 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,287,436 | 78,287,436 |
a3d4821650a3f660ee87a468d7710686f9b29510 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x2d669099a9d387e1c4e144ccf43d9523f057cf9b36f9c55c37f509f31be4344f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | anyone's legend | 0 | lol-al-t1-2025-10-31 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner | 78,399,672 | 78,404,232 |
6a08740e266fe59e8c963f59d627736917c00475 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x309b383d4c3f4a97d25213570c5f1e795d87ea2161c24aa09d82da8b201e0f25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | anyone's legend | 0 | lol-al-t1-2025-10-31 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) | 78,401,977 | 78,403,003 |
b1056e7e8ed51b05448b45ce987e7388569da611 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x2367538e0b729fbbf51827d046dec4b30b8cabe483e32fa31d22cd8d0c204716 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-october-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $500b on October 31? | 78,431,369 | 78,431,369 |
c57ad6d69b1221eea2a8d0330ddc5124a68a89d3 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x920ca3330d171a4531e5f127c4e8b67ba5d6ef51ab49b14404e4e0a43e3eb2ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-october-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $440b and $450b on October 31? | 78,431,369 | 78,431,369 |
5b1904f2088f2704d9e9a69e8f62c5a68f7a92f9 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0xe6cfb17a41d1da25fd81bc59b50fa7d5fbdf9584e2122c2649f77703e47dad32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-october-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $440b on October 31? | 78,431,369 | 78,431,369 |
daac92245ba37468dd57315b2e0c37b45a73a081 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x1a061b125ff8a5225ffa29de06ed0aa5899d269ad5fd606cc0b16dcb43791840 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | blue jays | 0 | mlb-lad-tor-2025-11-01 | Dodgers vs. Blue Jays | 78,474,335 | 78,480,518 |
9ed83da60aeef2555d0ce338e55c533004ebf4a4 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x1073cc3483263763397b853cb095ac8451f7e26b5a94231b5973c14bf6e7a95a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | yes | 0.815026 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? | 78,474,335 | 78,482,494 |
ace8b199cafae2072ef94270a7f722c34ad1eda2 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x4c9ccd1404d105968de9b1ff3226fbafdc0b6e402a26bbcad3a84a1b62296783 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | 78,482,662 | 78,482,662 |
ddb591f186eec7afabc8859666776b7af7c6edc4 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x971b14ff03996a43df007e51fa2a67602b350ce6aded880932cfbe5359dad13c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-10-21? | 78,483,974 | 78,483,974 |
04a16270e4dd889f577fe2437e1e99c9987f0c25 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0xb2671ef12566bcf376193aab6f5503d1d0d6502edc81482e92c9b42a2bf091bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-bar-2025-10-26 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? | 78,483,974 | 78,483,974 |
672fd70e245046fe40bb35b9103f022f95c53890 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0xfcdad6fc77e1a202e6cad9e5f701921e5a68aa4612d06079f0c222d6b27213fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election-569 | Will Luc Rabouin win the 2025 Montreal mayor election? | 78,529,112 | 78,529,112 |
d0469a56312660c371029190513792d76bc2dcbb | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x141e74dd29f5a5609f43e8946da9e43731245ebd4219f8486143fee1c6a18ff2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 1 | nof1ai-trading-competition-biggest-loser | Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max lose the NOF1.ai competition? | 78,557,909 | 78,557,909 |
ae4b9477df84db72ad4a1a62cff893ab164f6411 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x438abea70b463cf819f8717256cda116618d03f9bab63410174ffc11289e6ca6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump s... | no | 1 | nof1ai-trading-competition-biggest-loser | Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat lose the NOF1.ai competition? | 78,557,909 | 78,557,909 |
e261a5f87a515d926c2d3cfd02ff922dce96e4ae | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0xd1b74ca65f1b363e84d1ac1821ace006c2628e4ea64990e3ea8cb941ef95a24b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-turkish-pr... | no | 1 | nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro win the NOF1.ai competition? | 78,557,909 | 78,557,909 |
07c121787f31e47867c792cc41f3b1a0c6ad647b | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0xd5cbe10a091dcd5adb64dac2665e6323878bb923d36a7a658d22a480e2e312a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-turkish-president-on-september-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1? | Event: of-v... | no | 1 | nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 win the NOF1.ai competition? | 78,557,909 | 78,557,909 |
4d238eddc2fa7665a6a780a17ac4023f9ab49d88 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x027eeeaba097b5f3b166eace64668b2e6b327acc7c6b314ae5f03b33b51425e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-621 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAS win by greater than >16% of the vote? | Event: pas-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | 78,610,303 | 78,610,303 |
3dd824f9fcf20a0a30a38d21ac4db2e6d6719e29 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x6a275bccfc2f3f09731fcde02291d06673d7540cbb120ddd0a56ae7a39ef0e38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAS win by greater than >16% of the vote? | Event: pas-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-916 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | 78,610,303 | 78,610,303 |
63818777f7bc1aa8235fc8f9d5c7bccba84eb124 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x43bdd849294c7864a44abde82242ce8bd443323208c056d7289d9a86feeb0a25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-916 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will María C... | no | 0 | will-mamdani-get-over-50-of-the-vote-in-the-general-mayoral-election | Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? | 78,617,743 | 78,617,743 |
8f06dca99bd614502a8b411fe96e6b22312bb9ae | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0xdee850a01c89e60450007c776cadfc16e0068a863826a36e925a9a21a9ec902c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be th... | yes | 0.000038 | will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5? | 78,638,686 | 78,638,686 |
0f9b9c72dc785f5f20f5ebe79a2b15abfa577277 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x28abe56a6a3d7135a58c2e28e835ce2cda826fdce3cf2a71dd329a79cd482584 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Showgirl' on Oct 10th? | Event: most-streamed-song-on-the-life-of-a-showgirl-... | no | 1 | minneapolis-mayoral-election-665 | Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? | 78,639,412 | 78,639,412 |
ac61554ed3ea0407e3da3c0810e98faffa3701d6 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x76c0c20596c22e4699dcce0970e0bafed1ebe22026caf4626d7d9a49c3b3b6f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Showgirl' on Oct 10th? | Event: most-streamed-song-on-the-life-of-a-showgirl-by-oct-10th | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9? | Event: when-will-israel-announce-ce... | yes | 1 | minneapolis-mayoral-election-665 | Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? | 78,640,112 | 78,640,112 |
95d93e760d32798d40ccdf75c3f180e2985bd39d | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x6c38c9910bf27dceb23e47d76eaaaf7b3a471f6ca0875a1d50733121c2277de5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9? | Event: when-will-israel-announce-ceasefire | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-529 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | t1 | 0.000001 | lol-t1-kt-2025-11-09 | LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner | 78,788,554 | 78,789,260 |
e5b0b2c76e1c95ac559ab78fcc8379eb5623ee09 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x7eedb6b17f0aa4bde32311f9f1f757c1fe68af684a3e67627c3cb5d3d606e1b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-529 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-529... | over | 0 | lol-t1-kt-2025-11-09 | Games Total: O/U 4.5 | 78,790,382 | 78,806,541 |
1d42970b15bfebd6c7eb7c53f83d0084f92bab4e | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x34da915352034059e0fc47b677cb2ca87d189cb797f92c0684dcb275e6af34c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-529 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23? | Event: will-israel-strike-gaza-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | lol-worlds-2025-winner | Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? | 78,806,541 | 78,806,541 |
3be71533fa3ff02119af913292fda1037ecee4d2 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0xec21462ef58f792b5c1ff07bfdc66401b631c6fb42562ccceb2de279f0e73788 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23? | Event: will-israel-strike-gaza-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by less than 15%? | Event: irish-presidential-election-catherine-connolly-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confide... | yes | 0.000001 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? | 78,825,091 | 78,825,091 |
40798e6c449825554f3f68a8236bf61fbf9ac778 | 0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a | 0x55a469ea12fc89bf6b12c38fc764e35c05b4b520485adf4c8716d6369b38ad8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by less than 15%? | Event: irish-presidential-election-catherine-connolly-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October? | Event: which-countries-will-the-u... | yes | 0.00003 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | 78,850,957 | 78,850,957 |
665314bf5918b74283d02b2f94992114628bc1b1 | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0x777e04368d6dedd8c54e58bbfdee71d299d754dea9eed644279a03183afc1fc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Devils vs. Sabres
Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | devils | 0 | nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Devils vs. Sabres | 67,462,834 | 67,474,844 |
4849c1f1bf22d2b5c914d4087496669a3dac470e | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0xa96554eb2e8f32cece0560ec0edda15cacef4e117a5ead51669d39e857cea391 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Devils vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Choice: devils | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Clippers vs. Raptors
Event: nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale":... | clippers | 0 | nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02 | Clippers vs. Raptors | 67,462,834 | 67,474,844 |
ef3666b676583cbbcda2ac5e4a281388ee132662 | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0xafa36fdbd3b303b6c793a04c0f3d653d7d41211ba21811f6894c76a1ac827b06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Devils vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Choice: devils | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Raptors | Event: nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bulls vs. Pistons
Event: nba-chi-det-2025-02-02
Predict the user's choice and c... | bulls | 0 | nba-chi-det-2025-02-02 | Bulls vs. Pistons | 67,462,834 | 67,474,844 |
36259d4e56853a006059edb6e18bf4ea7541b3c1 | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0x5f155780c4673e3a8b7620f058110d12a6fdd623b01484ec4aaf63febc1ff1a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Devils vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Choice: devils | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Raptors | Event: nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bulls vs. Pistons | Event: nba-chi-det-2025-02-02 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
Target m... | jazz | 0 | nba-gsw-uta-2025-02-05 | Warriors vs. Jazz | 67,592,676 | 67,592,676 |
52a8022b23c947fc792be992c9c60da19bd0627d | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0xf121d7a69898dde5bab94f85c2dc61508c9807c05bb6c59d395e900c67d1d689 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Devils vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Choice: devils | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Raptors | Event: nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bulls vs. Pistons | Event: nba-chi-det-2025-02-02 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questi... | cavaliers | 0 | nba-cle-det-2025-02-05 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons | 67,592,676 | 67,592,676 |
985e0758ff899dbc70452bbdf8520cbe6a0d6faa | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0x35e287b04ed7f460279166b7455f207470e4113e9f3b8f3bb80f1d6b0b7793bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Devils vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Choice: devils | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Raptors | Event: nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bulls vs. Pistons | Event: nba-chi-det-2025-02-02 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questi... | pistons | 1 | nba-phi-det-2025-02-07 | 76ers vs. Pistons | 67,674,173 | 67,674,173 |
34eb522b8dc313b95a3d62169174991fd205fa96 | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0x059750bd823d63eed06026782889260adf46ac3a8920d5d11afe13b2723a3312 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Devils vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Choice: devils | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Raptors | Event: nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bulls vs. Pistons | Event: nba-chi-det-2025-02-02 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questi... | celtics | 0 | nba-bos-mia-2025-02-10 | Celtics vs. Heat | 67,785,784 | 67,785,784 |
f427fe36e8c0b6214a696847edaa301810b937ea | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0x87022409ff180a2355e56fea9adba7da66cfa7d57b7f0e997f460ed6075eb33e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Devils vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Choice: devils | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Raptors | Event: nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bulls vs. Pistons | Event: nba-chi-det-2025-02-02 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questi... | grizzlies | 0 | nba-mem-phx-2025-02-11 | Grizzlies vs. Suns | 67,785,784 | 67,785,784 |
fa0f47c3e483ebedbf1c6030852070e16ab9e23d | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0x10659515f807cf116d337b53f03629121b9ec674f3d290a9d8c0ca9db6aa116b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Devils vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Choice: devils | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Raptors | Event: nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bulls vs. Pistons | Event: nba-chi-det-2025-02-02 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questi... | 76ers | 0 | nba-tor-phi-2025-02-11 | Raptors vs. 76ers | 67,785,784 | 67,842,108 |
c285b374ba18bf7e0ddc6dfbdefea1cbf8529c8d | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0x87dbb1967536ebd7686879684f931e5460a3004b332fdc6363a0ff58ad43f76d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Devils vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Choice: devils | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Raptors | Event: nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bulls vs. Pistons | Event: nba-chi-det-2025-02-02 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questi... | heat | 0 | nba-mia-dal-2025-02-13 | Heat vs. Mavericks | 67,900,850 | 67,922,904 |
ab82611bf8afaed79d2ecfa00e584b27c55d30a0 | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0x56f0612aea79dde59659fdc8e7a0284bb20a9132354e738c8c6c3fa2ac10e1f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Devils vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Choice: devils | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Raptors | Event: nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bulls vs. Pistons | Event: nba-chi-det-2025-02-02 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questi... | red wings | 0 | nhl-min-det-2025-02-22 | Wild vs. Red Wings | 68,162,643 | 68,827,150 |
544a65ee7a5f45fb53d93620d51a785a73475b77 | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0x921aa309d9de959c69ca39773c17a63a332d7535957fb354098992b9dc0dfc70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Devils vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Choice: devils | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Raptors | Event: nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bulls vs. Pistons | Event: nba-chi-det-2025-02-02 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questi... | braves | 0 | mlb-bal-atl-2025-07-06 | Orioles vs. Braves | 73,656,188 | 73,656,188 |
792b680259147e11c22b2f91eac31bd445862fdf | 0x02295cb6e8c96e8e9c66044d0f102438cd81ea6c | 0xfd5536de2f2755f2e04ca4c8aeb84f0006590feb69e6dcd3f14d87c3668de48e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Devils vs. Sabres | Event: nhl-nj-buf-2025-02-02 | Choice: devils | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Clippers vs. Raptors | Event: nba-lac-tor-2025-02-02 | Choice: clippers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bulls vs. Pistons | Event: nba-chi-det-2025-02-02 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questi... | mariners | 0 | mlb-pit-sea-2025-07-06 | Pirates vs. Mariners | 73,665,881 | 73,665,881 |
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