sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2cea8c58cac087274b900d1cad83281c6500fd59 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x56cc4cc331b3bec343cfcd0097514c2a9554489d6f655e586492f088d939573f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | yes | 0.088706 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on October 26? | 78,230,811 | 78,230,811 |
e5fdb949a68e6d57ea773274bf8bffad2456fad1 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xcdeafaee77fc76366c84ba6edd6cae6fc2fcf369dc4fd44d1338e6e52f8864e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.81859410430839
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lond... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-27 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 27? | 78,243,841 | 78,243,841 |
1420b507d86cdd20aba6f5dbeb26caae5618e0dc | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x04f7b3c669c6f97ab18d8ff7e192188f380e28d5657e374c867a89eecb0e22a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | yes | 0.303551 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 28? | 78,332,997 | 78,332,997 |
a89083d662614a279943195c35d01636bf14ddef | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x1c2213f0cd80d741952be1ea9caa97eafc11e94bdd1b3c222d148747327a4a86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | yes | 0.951995 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 28? | 78,332,997 | 78,332,997 |
4559b023f41fb4da558344824bba86e0702ec3b7 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xc0ef6079c52f9f7111e4e8742a5c782dcab005b18f1d0473ad68db9c2793db68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5233545261774288
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | no | 0.041236 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-27 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 27? | 78,332,997 | 78,332,997 |
8ad35a440cfe59aee309f1efb5b400d7fce40632 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x8a386b97936df73cdbd3978e1a49f39d47d8f62c5221a56d9466c3542eb9cf5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | yes | 0.460576 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-29 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 29? | 78,361,718 | 78,361,718 |
b0207286c5ed33e2cfcf1af27221343e8f5770a2 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xc81f7b99af4dc639b6adc13ef1c7e290ea79cf9e7f23f8cabf46b06fafbb0d8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on October 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 30? | 78,376,145 | 78,376,145 |
c0069d19765f21cb81707185b9e655cebe52438d | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x45e4660cc4ed873e2eaa3f35da87c47f1940a4eca0dfe6451af74d24b6a14f04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on October 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3062334531482494
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon... | yes | 0.857568 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 30? | 78,421,640 | 78,421,640 |
fa6b6cfcf5cb207284eca9acc942745d0587067d | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x5fce4b0e44edfb12843fbf46f8eb6a44c2c7737672956101cda8afe600147a8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.16502997451443283
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-l... | yes | 0.623451 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 30? | 78,421,640 | 78,421,640 |
5a7b51d24559a8241b1d06db778840f62286616b | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x847a3042e26e6f2af9d2d76ac3e91595f85f5917d2d829e701cc27ae8396e353 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 0.310342 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 31? | 78,421,640 | 78,421,640 |
800650a3ada605704984ded34a9c819151b51bb7 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x0da6fdca041cb637c042f01221d6f406a721de3331f8c0cc32c9d13d406d7141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | no | 0.302326 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on October 31? | 78,440,239 | 78,440,239 |
8310bb73ca2c28f4ce2ec44cf862ac81ea6c5917 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x359f61d9a1eadd60e2623f60cd2f4226a905ff72a77f4d658c918288cfff8b6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.26431989023381197
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-l... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 31? | 78,440,239 | 78,440,239 |
d5c84397067d12cadf1d0d70adc6d0f51cf3f051 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x9ac3d57507ace3bfe21b1528f68141cf027f09457b2eb165b95b3d014a4bbcb8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | yes | 0.949026 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-1 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 1? | 78,440,239 | 78,440,239 |
e23ccccb108661261bfef27597b50825e16f1028 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xdf6f2c9ce8cd20839a78c1aab97b50f1b06d61eec1bce15fe0479345a1780456 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0667574605276471
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon... | no | 0.176428 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-1 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 1? | 78,440,239 | 78,440,239 |
77661ec37718bd66c3c7818537ad60716264bc74 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xa616e86f819a10ab20667ed8c6502455bc4b436e8edabfc25ad1f718409fb722 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.24002048479184473
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | no | 0.649123 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 2? | 78,509,015 | 78,509,015 |
43ed5a274d8e68be6b00468b14da84fb1844212b | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xa6e1a78089fb474d3124018f41fe593ec48b1eb22e586e77ff6e2c4f5dac9a6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | yes | 0.243754 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-1 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 1? | 78,509,015 | 78,509,015 |
4e500e11ab8fafff8393d8dfee4b147a3d8c0286 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xb1ae70abd92cc5772cc8d3a105e565de41c99d471d8595eb1070f6002d12e9c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 2? | 78,509,015 | 78,509,015 |
b334b6df5e77b46b75d80b5f9c2d98a39f467811 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x5d630357cf73509e236d91015f2b9f82db40348fd9d7a1638b2351739896b7de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3684210526315789
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon... | yes | 0.2 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 4? | 78,639,157 | 78,639,157 |
816d375775dd299f0308c2fc6c43ab33a04141b1 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x8058184700cb7626df3e63a41f52d32c755bdb575d98c13d5be79399339f1b12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3181818181818182
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | no | 0.5 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 4? | 78,639,157 | 78,639,157 |
5f60735817a1d98accf957d90da12fa30813888e | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xc69296904db04156655d14a9184a7bdfc09382a328f840af70f4bb0559729ae3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | no | 0.428571 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 6? | 78,680,205 | 78,680,205 |
c099e5bc11519ab12965857b8caeb8b423da8448 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x23887ee60ff29e7395c2d729a4bde1d000407ce7d93849cc3405cb46283d2218 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | no | 0.116284 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-7 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 7? | 78,711,642 | 78,711,642 |
775d554c14f51448d00e9113b1a8876a4a2e6f28 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x9fdbe803e39ccb18cea7d9708bf2935a43eab591b24b860388886e0b07634b6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.368192656765266
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 6? | 78,711,642 | 78,711,642 |
e9c2f4599225f45b4477bcadd832ec7411d9b4cd | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x3092fbf643e9c22db891138395e29a8df8459ba7f4c8b9be241668b4af3fb63b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.507537688442211
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-7 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 7? | 78,755,896 | 78,755,896 |
b721d83a6e47f32bc66c02bb94b549b4dcfc8f21 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x38446d4689ae1ca4e20fa050037ccca2cedf637a8533977563c8c82b613509b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 8? | 78,755,896 | 78,755,896 |
f946d8a9bde43b9a4e5dc178cf53ec52eef0174e | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xe33cec5eb8c35e3c241c34fee7a50b8e86b90827cea660acc59c4dbed10bd010 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | no | 0.212129 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 8? | 78,766,115 | 78,766,115 |
14c3cc997a2e9d0c967df1b1ccc7cdc59d87fb15 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x44ab4e24799e1c182c8cd5012e8b466ab99af77c25d005630b3a25901d7255b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october... | yes | 0.078414 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 9? | 78,807,711 | 78,807,711 |
ddbec3f3525be10d17c257bace42961da7ab0e98 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x764d91b593a11113b5b046aca71dde1e290eda4f57eddd1d05c472955105846a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | no | 0.071161 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 10? | 78,836,985 | 78,836,985 |
40ccfd342c3321e97bde093f997aebf1efb508f3 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x9e60b45d246ad30f5cda9ba08925d88714c339780a2482bb6d3f3e91d087d4c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.21839295091843672
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-l... | yes | 0.424218 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 9? | 78,836,985 | 78,836,985 |
fe681d61d6b09b35b2c617b148af1219be1e0dad | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x80098e132e711a4bae171c63419a79e1c18fbf0f3dc4a7a67788c0bdd8d28991 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0456751053316899
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon... | no | 0.198455 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 10? | 78,878,733 | 78,878,733 |
f869eff4abc6c36e232d55702fafd8598a14ebd6 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x84366701794731971cb37401645575953142477abe138a9319a12e6081616f15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09090909090909091
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on October 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon... | yes | 0.204819 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 10? | 78,878,733 | 78,878,733 |
4d3c10971c27ce081e87073a5924987586ad7f47 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x04e05cb6f861aab0a88a405467407dea71d341b4e6b0366192e301813890a561 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on October 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0887063823947587
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lond... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 11? | 78,917,544 | 78,917,544 |
9c5a67ce99a22fa6f14e6563d51366a599fd178e | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x1bc922173daf67c5a1e8f35e0ef98eb0ebdf9e18b9c78cad6dff4807fa3214f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | no | 0.869639 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 11? | 78,917,544 | 78,917,544 |
aede3df3da1b11a2f4e88bb5c6d6f1c21293afeb | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x97bedc646b578fe9396ea40ae6a90c590d07255cde30daf26a341cbae49f0c94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3035509736540664
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 11? | 78,917,544 | 78,917,544 |
7169f6b63b3eb5fbcbcd4b03d6900146cebc1207 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x4c7ba018dce639894e2d3884c647830c12d7deec863f3bb821f894ffc096674e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9519948957247197
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | no | 0.447525 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 12? | 78,939,141 | 78,939,141 |
16bec7cb7808f0abb1d19a297a6e3ab26de5a15b | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x71245919977c52d334137315be63a05b1cb4ef42cf6d8b96251519a78111adeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.041235839332986496
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-l... | no | 0.30831 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 12? | 78,939,141 | 78,939,141 |
a2603bbbded200d85e9a59ffb81ee9c9dbbe14a3 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x43f82441133ef912418dbe66851b47c68a48a6d50aeeb05b7802620ae3dcda75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4605763593171335
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | no | 0.268309 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 13? | 78,973,223 | 78,973,223 |
27df16880fc53a2df5a43b992a00f8a59bf5a8be | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x67213cb0bc46d635a7837278c3f49229bdd2338959f61a92ad0ba9adf7a0241c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | yes | 0.813062 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 13? | 78,982,274 | 78,982,274 |
4a22f56b30bd2b76fd29bfec43b341992cf3dafa | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xe07e1787a39ab463a6338b333b2e3da957b0f5777fa93fbe3ac54d67f29098b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8575675006192718
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 0.060709 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 14? | 79,025,813 | 79,025,813 |
3f9cd2d946659ff2d22549759b0a10adb77413f1 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x3a533951ea3b8975353f16736d18f67ad76cd2ab74e0d2016a2cfabb10fb20cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.623451444063712
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 15? | 79,086,188 | 79,086,188 |
d51df484989a9e2d1a8d85c904f554d1eef0715d | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0xe82f38c1b2ac991c81accf576bf73949f53b17d53d9c361d0bb6098e845887fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0.035364 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | 63,313,500 | 63,313,500 |
53191d79888c65d0ac64463a9ce583a526349981 | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0x5cd8e90335dd795381d97af8ab320d34687d43833893a33381ac08b18494c2f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for th... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | 63,341,539 | 63,341,539 |
5f5809564d66e5443f16da94c54ea07e66f2dae8 | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0xcd1b6b71a1964f15e2c14809594cbfa0d576270e8ef94c8c24913121097e09e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: W... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 64,201,754 | 64,201,754 |
4210adf56c4242e9352b65c04f965f130b08fe6c | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0x690d3465e98bad7f46551129064c47c8306d9794052155a23e467b28a928ba15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Tr... | yes | 1 | october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.29-1.34°C? | 64,201,762 | 64,201,762 |
731d788b8cc6731a1894d23e46aa5369c10aaddf | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0x0e512a7a83b4e4d3f43b073af887341458922dd4b4929b7e0a4722d6c74a3f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Tr... | no | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | 64,201,787 | 64,201,894 |
a53628276d69fb5ac3d93a4082363c3bf5719b2b | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0xc5a29d7da91c765c5b8b45dc5f86147558ad0d16bb18e7ca14a74e3b5e3ebf9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Tr... | no | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | 67,040,604 | 67,040,604 |
3e9963eddecc21b14db2556fb17b5fc20f1c41e5 | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0x3f56bae1879b7336e2e77fd2955557216cd305cff2481844e799050b364a3ef8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Tr... | yes | 0.957447 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | 67,713,631 | 67,713,631 |
eee1b3ac7ca7e3c73b6e48a8e1b645b2aafa6139 | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0xe0ed19a565d1cb5c583128cdb23d72869af4a85c50358de4de88cce20e68b000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Tr... | no | 1 | what-chain-will-kanye-launch-his-token-on | Will Kanye launch a token on Solana? | 68,279,406 | 68,279,406 |
72f032a1d7484a54f787e8e7821be31089b2a931 | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0x1921202aa3f884b9c562a244f1e58417d93c9315e6768d27768eb3b2abc2c95b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Tr... | yes | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,550,483 | 68,550,483 |
b1ffda00075cf0030c5417f9a2016117c9c88f53 | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0x7cc7d231f746f5d4c063248ce5c678c3fecf0145f8d2f39fba9dbec19b2ebb20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Tr... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-march-28 | Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? | 69,356,825 | 69,356,825 |
c2bce1300b51772a6c728afe64888186ecd7b7f4 | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0xb9d3f8d504d0da9f35065793fce7a82b5089e5e747a3a1d95b2aa2f9688b0a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Tr... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-25 | Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? | 69,394,255 | 69,394,255 |
a068b7e47fd4aa31623487b0d279a746ca5d21c5 | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0xb128e5a640692cc8e6e24a734b5ee7d29f06ca1138d321c70bd440bee5c9306d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Tr... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-25 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on March 25? | 69,515,257 | 69,515,257 |
f439d0a280898db6474535ce8fb5b47dd5f5e24c | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0x23ef9b04ac11bfccf11ee3bce72792c6deb68900ee1424d0185c0b310458c342 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Tr... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-march-28 | Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? | 71,306,619 | 71,306,619 |
6d1dbcae5622c00940e24eee8e7a532a7f2fb776 | 0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f | 0x27dad32b48d6d8ca8535ffd8f155db3c1dbe3863bb38247447b81ea629680dd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Tr... | yes | 1 | what-chain-will-kanye-launch-his-token-on | Will Kanye launch a token on Ethereum? | 71,306,619 | 71,306,619 |
69480f61c0fd3ce624f24f52de65e42a6668aa50 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0x4bdf0155cbd6d59d298ec0ce3b6d6f70c1a0e542f935e457f8c08075627dc925 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26?
Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | 78,310,303 | 78,310,303 |
42c57a4d99279122bbee32236a0d8734a34a6e8c | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0xccad2266625a75d200bf15d2cd86c93a28355381e898ce1a80c3f9910872211d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025?
Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON... | no | 0.036692 | lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | 78,522,213 | 78,522,213 |
53f29df73c364efd6d8240472681ceb92e0d1868 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0x6970efb99d2ce1fedf443f813f8b91a633abdf8140394769929efd9d84c08e79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
Target market:
Question: Lakers vs. Hawks
Even... | lakers | 0.045523 | nba-lal-atl-2025-11-09 | Lakers vs. Hawks | 78,753,915 | 78,753,915 |
53159cc59df257c6f5bc1901ec887c51510ef2e6 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0xa201124f1421c39673f834dc55f82560d3b7734772254f9e72fcb35fe441d41f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | no | 0.466049 | lol-worlds-2025-winner | Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? | 78,783,496 | 78,783,496 |
ddb5984dad32ae3fdca4137d1aea5f8b73452905 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0x2700c8cc1b14280f4144a511f8bae2b1482fbe2742304a9dea7b079d0c38546b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | bulls | 0 | nba-chi-det-2025-11-12 | Bulls vs. Pistons | 78,918,253 | 78,994,771 |
b27735751b164223e97430732adb061173abb702 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0x10b839f970b99348774ad8dba5c80602187253fa6c2f2224a9bb13d0a60e11ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | bucks | 0 | nba-mil-cha-2025-11-12 | Bucks vs. Hornets | 78,918,256 | 78,954,799 |
5e2df8df248f3a90eb93d4b8a289c8d1bae9d585 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0x95a77d8cfcdc73774188da694485b3a079dfe61d6618bb32af85464eef4c7dac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | knicks | 0 | nba-orl-nyk-2025-11-12 | Magic vs. Knicks | 78,918,259 | 78,952,911 |
d822d0d5f859f219e41d4d415b2ec0de2ecdc671 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0xac87571452772319b1e597d73ed7314c942ffe6fdd829567dc315e7aa5c338a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | cavaliers | 0 | nba-cle-mia-2025-11-12 | Cavaliers vs. Heat | 78,923,501 | 78,994,771 |
c706295a53d711726b95f08efd451d2e79e19467 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0x1fa0a429c2183b5423564b1c6294214ba01be7ffd6344d2fd3500f0e98e58481 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | hawks | 0 | nba-atl-sac-2025-11-12 | Hawks vs. Kings | 78,923,516 | 78,994,771 |
d89b2b8e8e3bb1ee2859ac9397c3557da0274bd0 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0x06f4b1cd367aa0abbb6c56d9f9270e5e8806a6f35deec96ace73ff812870d864 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | spurs | 0.14286 | nba-gsw-sas-2025-11-12 | Warriors vs. Spurs | 78,926,099 | 78,928,199 |
b75cb6a494eb6bd942079e5c9b52380f2b0d4864 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0x6c3263def96926aef638d96263b61936b08519de4bc0d50e9f1c71510a5a9869 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | mavericks | 0.272719 | nba-phx-dal-2025-11-12 | Suns vs. Mavericks | 78,928,205 | 78,928,205 |
dcbb1bd62866cb53381c3119e93e62fcc11e2d65 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0xac1b0b481c7ffa6a61748b4a3427b30b1d55576b62504e174e96327a8e821687 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | 76ers | 0.232632 | nba-tor-phi-2025-11-19 | Raptors vs. 76ers | 79,231,239 | 79,236,160 |
e899f9eba124c83b4519ca378c941bd90af8189c | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0x923e397fd9321c84f082131fa977c685e7da172f5fb3300179e8206550f28f40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | canadiens | 0 | nhl-wsh-mon-2025-11-20 | Capitals vs. Canadiens | 79,271,837 | 79,299,099 |
033b92fb51ba481791c9f33953b2491a1bf37cff | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0xa435a13903bc9c8483a1a32de90b4878f85857a887ead28b41fb1d84cb446054 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | clippers | 0 | nba-lac-orl-2025-11-20 | Clippers vs. Magic | 79,271,840 | 79,299,099 |
2c36d61e530cc53da442e1d630a0ace2d2b84cb5 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0x48e643a93888373f93e64dfc22038fa38e9f0eef2d5a739e76fc8ab0881dc1c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | yes | 1 | epl-new-mac-2025-11-22 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? | 79,384,567 | 79,384,567 |
e1d21f91486c8a9adf4812dcd8353ab0a113e252 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0xa4741df4f013ac2a7c5c44667074b0b76d1e600291a6d39ac6888428c9b07c02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | bengals | 0 | nfl-ne-cin-2025-11-23 | Patriots vs. Bengals | 79,406,435 | 79,430,543 |
a285cb756700df3ee41cc73f28185a173fd2ea35 | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0xaaca3c792f030c897d98ea2f8a824d1842a3f31d054baf9523623270b8a8cea1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | 76ers | 0 | nba-mia-phi-2025-11-23 | Heat vs. 76ers | 79,407,970 | 79,430,543 |
a472f2da2771732b5c3490a14b0a6bea2d37d63d | 0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838 | 0x393931eb887f76e3f8058cecb1e8b6e9e99f36a53379bea55d23a5776b3f4d8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861
3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-ast-2025-11-23 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-23? | 79,410,370 | 79,410,370 |
f716d7aacf30d894c2d5ad1d9dec1c37d24a7bda | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x587536de2c7033d5f215d1ff9a5a98ecc4a2c12825b41e953955c40a795b0cbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies
Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | dodgers | 0 | mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Dodgers vs. Rockies | 75,421,268 | 75,421,425 |
a1e2c13aeeef3a5a52554c57d28e83d1c5ac8cb8 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x9cca0cd4d6c510986659a750acddf47e39713c08866f7a3c63c8dd5bdc9a5065 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17?
Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confi... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | 75,423,025 | 75,423,025 |
b9b2b4c70bca80e7cfe993525391321eb77a4811 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x761bee123baa6f8cede920213492221408f3e41a5246764e7288428e1604db2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA
Event: league-of-... | dn freecs | 0 | league-of-legends-dn-freecs-vs-dplus-kia | League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | 75,838,848 | 75,838,848 |
a01d26caf9c29cd3008d9fda85ef62383e4eb6c4 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xeacdda74a1718cd5d853ae4e4803be0de2196a9d399a06e33552c8445d3aa2af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Will Liverpool vs. Everton end in a draw? | 76,688,728 | 76,688,728 |
8e28bd15d8662befa802bf5f9bfa7cd8c0f9d451 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xd8d66de78c4a7af451e7047643e66da550d1c8eb22466b65309331091cf8d0dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | jd gaming | 0 | lol-jd-gaming-weibo-gaming-2025-09-26 | LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming | 76,924,407 | 76,941,180 |
9df81b60a9c81b59541984990c97a29e2631def5 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x9f49a004c854ada068c1ffe4cdd189433b698d258e2cb7f357f3e5b7203e6936 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-liv-2025-09-27 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? | 76,987,527 | 76,987,527 |
2a5f089784854e4f2a5328079f152bbad06d25fc | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x2e72270655209e7d0912ac49bb9bf17f09b76a880f6f9fa85714393954b5cb62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | dodgers | 0 | mlb-lad-sea-2025-09-27 | Dodgers vs. Mariners | 76,991,757 | 76,997,167 |
15fb201fa0935f42b034eef2bdc344d5c95875ce | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x9ba69acbef80c3124c8ea46f7fd85fa7072144494c24dc24e2b859b06b31b7dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | no | 1 | epl-ars-wes-2025-10-04 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-04? | 77,270,782 | 77,270,782 |
15fc7887925c21c7030ee13c6e5d61b5dd20fc0f | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xd3c36efd820875f3f4706ed80e12100e62f4e90dafe57749c211b66d6773bf8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | no | 1 | epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? | 77,270,782 | 77,270,782 |
ba251f4d9503b6f1b047845c519918c2b2f5e75a | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x5be2baa4127624bb749feb333d2e65f32ee7a70c98d866d3064453bdccf5b29e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | browns | 0 | nfl-min-cle-2025-10-05 | Vikings vs. Browns | 77,291,948 | 77,327,296 |
f978c96c75033ca00c7f353102d7a55daf278200 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xc6b734cb08be267e4f3d9b8fa377ee33aa8e1810875ccd565946b904dc607364 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | no | 1 | epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05? | 77,327,296 | 77,327,296 |
9b337553ccd11efab565d6ab83c5bed4d6667771 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xf9bf52f9bd566306d677ee3deee8e456738c49d9ec2e734572d1a1e9e958e1b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | no | 1 | valorant-champions-2025 | Will NRG win VALORANT Champions 2025? | 77,327,296 | 77,327,296 |
f43ddf0a35b9bbca0eef8eb85f6257922fa74ce2 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x811df1e5331e63beaaf94b0154d616f7f592e815c0d447d8220f1038d7b6b2ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | bucks | 0 | nba-mil-mia-2025-10-06 | Bucks vs. Heat | 77,351,453 | 77,369,797 |
7d54033edb12822bbf44716014b4271b86cf2839 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x5b2c274544424900f6bc67373d4bda41ac90fad6ff12129829b3095a146bab81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | spurs | 1 | nba-sas-mia-2025-10-08 | Spurs vs. Heat | 77,441,118 | 77,441,118 |
27b705ce497beef763b90a9f336930e909a0e757 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xb9fc427ba63c533d9cb7dfa6b1b4a7235e1fb341e222c28545bffc97832d0f63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | nets | 0 | nba-phx-bkn-2025-10-10 | Suns vs. Nets | 77,457,405 | 77,590,009 |
b53441f55d2935c38cdf84b0ba9bd7a490b6b115 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x644edb5123778628470fbcb9fd3c131e69cfa418e41f3bfa66c5bc22854f2578 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | pacers | 0 | nba-okc-ind-2025-10-11 | Thunder vs. Pacers | 77,567,488 | 77,567,488 |
72c019f55a10f8f6e997f4688941e672fff5da70 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xa7aeaaae036e316c1e7e0542fa31595117dee8735ef88b3d9ceda85b1b3d1534 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | chiefs | 0 | nfl-det-kc-2025-10-12 | Lions vs. Chiefs | 77,606,138 | 77,606,138 |
4bdc34b278fec109fba0886087866ee0d0edd225 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x50e58b68920ac25a8880bfa778b2d857f3da9449618ff5d2353025393b2afeb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | spurs | 0.777778 | nba-sas-ind-2025-10-13 | Spurs vs. Pacers | 77,650,675 | 77,650,675 |
81d606c313a70d717777beed4d365c04725140ec | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xa151364eb13438a4994da7d9606eb5590bb6a99df8be7ac34b9ebb4c6b7c4f2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | no | 0.333333 | arg-pla-rie-2025-10-13 | Will CA Platense win on 2025-10-13? | 77,650,675 | 77,656,937 |
2699e81f3a446bc0095c5f039e0c5d2e7eec70f6 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xc95ed1a49bd00f4ffdd9b23f0f5ab21432a6c8dd684e6432ca22dfb6ef044369 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | imperial | 0 | cs2-navi-imp-2025-10-15 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Imperial (BO3) | 77,718,264 | 77,718,393 |
197cd231e257b2351126a94fb54075c79cd3180b | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x4ae3f62847da298b9f375e5dbdcaccfeb836b4330b7ffae11653a137ca846dad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | no | 1 | epl-mac-eve-2025-10-18 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-18? | 77,801,059 | 77,801,059 |
43dbcede0558416a557c7320f3a9021cb08c6a3c | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xe0d9de962e0a53a2276c8ac5b192fd97e1d2ec74a386d2d7022b83ae86464489 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | commanders | 0 | nfl-was-dal-2025-10-19 | Commanders vs. Cowboys | 77,822,965 | 77,927,800 |
c96c8107fa4ad5704b250208453ad0943d311ad7 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x21266b09a61f34c18beae22b066779c8cbd0a4c97db2f554821a3a0157aa26be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | brewers | 0 | mlb-mil-lad-2025-10-17 | Brewers vs. Dodgers | 77,825,121 | 77,840,738 |
c4e43ab8f35c77475951c050afb7437f7627675f | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x6210e3f2b38254ce59bce9f8b469ba5d8df3f8136334e5250458275facff7978 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | furia | 0 | cs2-furia-navi-2025-10-19 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO5) | 77,891,078 | 77,891,078 |
63920b92249e3505e9659f3ce7954f79cbeb9d38 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xdd584402aa8693672ae06e69c0b9bc2f7c5ed5864500bcd615002e10a5d44bcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | yes | 1 | bra-fla-pal-2025-10-19 | Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-19? | 77,907,966 | 77,907,966 |
bf7409560a424ad24685d616205bd8c76e1cc423 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x5a0f9776be6c742291ec44debf3b4c56f6c3b9271e96b073eeb80ea6b38caeb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | yes | 0.119664 | epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | 78,040,347 | 78,167,408 |
6c71a26f40c25c9dd7192c96bc42615c8d339e0a | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xc0c0941e8774b0d0df1fd8f84ab7b83076a1675a1feb214e426579beb3046aec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | chargers | 0 | nfl-min-lac-2025-10-23 | Vikings vs. Chargers | 78,080,822 | 78,080,822 |
af796b620a7881615b216ebeec92f6eb5b4feeb7 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xa696b4ed502d38afcd01e6bae64e1ff5eab31b99dbf88b43c51b822b221245ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | lakers | 0 | nba-min-lal-2025-10-24 | Timberwolves vs. Lakers | 78,124,523 | 78,124,523 |
8a1701a73519e6a8338d9403f17955e26feb7eb6 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x0e6937036c2aafc80bbec96adae28ca1f60b805586c1ff850ed8ec139ed950df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | ctbc flying oyster | 1 | lol-cfo-fly-2025-10-25 | LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) | 78,139,697 | 78,139,697 |
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