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2cea8c58cac087274b900d1cad83281c6500fd59
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x56cc4cc331b3bec343cfcd0097514c2a9554489d6f655e586492f088d939573f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
yes
0.088706
highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-26
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on October 26?
78,230,811
78,230,811
e5fdb949a68e6d57ea773274bf8bffad2456fad1
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0xcdeafaee77fc76366c84ba6edd6cae6fc2fcf369dc4fd44d1338e6e52f8864e5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.81859410430839 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lond...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-27
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 27?
78,243,841
78,243,841
1420b507d86cdd20aba6f5dbeb26caae5618e0dc
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x04f7b3c669c6f97ab18d8ff7e192188f380e28d5657e374c867a89eecb0e22a0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
yes
0.303551
highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 28?
78,332,997
78,332,997
a89083d662614a279943195c35d01636bf14ddef
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x1c2213f0cd80d741952be1ea9caa97eafc11e94bdd1b3c222d148747327a4a86
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
yes
0.951995
highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 28?
78,332,997
78,332,997
4559b023f41fb4da558344824bba86e0702ec3b7
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0xc0ef6079c52f9f7111e4e8742a5c782dcab005b18f1d0473ad68db9c2793db68
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5233545261774288 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo...
no
0.041236
highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-27
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 27?
78,332,997
78,332,997
8ad35a440cfe59aee309f1efb5b400d7fce40632
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x8a386b97936df73cdbd3978e1a49f39d47d8f62c5221a56d9466c3542eb9cf5d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
yes
0.460576
highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-29
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 29?
78,361,718
78,361,718
b0207286c5ed33e2cfcf1af27221343e8f5770a2
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0xc81f7b99af4dc639b6adc13ef1c7e290ea79cf9e7f23f8cabf46b06fafbb0d8f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on October 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-1...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-30
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 30?
78,376,145
78,376,145
c0069d19765f21cb81707185b9e655cebe52438d
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x45e4660cc4ed873e2eaa3f35da87c47f1940a4eca0dfe6451af74d24b6a14f04
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on October 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3062334531482494 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon...
yes
0.857568
highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-30
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 30?
78,421,640
78,421,640
fa6b6cfcf5cb207284eca9acc942745d0587067d
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x5fce4b0e44edfb12843fbf46f8eb6a44c2c7737672956101cda8afe600147a8a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.16502997451443283 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-l...
yes
0.623451
highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-30
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 30?
78,421,640
78,421,640
5a7b51d24559a8241b1d06db778840f62286616b
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x847a3042e26e6f2af9d2d76ac3e91595f85f5917d2d829e701cc27ae8396e353
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october...
yes
0.310342
highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 31?
78,421,640
78,421,640
800650a3ada605704984ded34a9c819151b51bb7
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x0da6fdca041cb637c042f01221d6f406a721de3331f8c0cc32c9d13d406d7141
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
no
0.302326
highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on October 31?
78,440,239
78,440,239
8310bb73ca2c28f4ce2ec44cf862ac81ea6c5917
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x359f61d9a1eadd60e2623f60cd2f4226a905ff72a77f4d658c918288cfff8b6a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.26431989023381197 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-l...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 31?
78,440,239
78,440,239
d5c84397067d12cadf1d0d70adc6d0f51cf3f051
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x9ac3d57507ace3bfe21b1528f68141cf027f09457b2eb165b95b3d014a4bbcb8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
yes
0.949026
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-1
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 1?
78,440,239
78,440,239
e23ccccb108661261bfef27597b50825e16f1028
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0xdf6f2c9ce8cd20839a78c1aab97b50f1b06d61eec1bce15fe0479345a1780456
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0667574605276471 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon...
no
0.176428
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-1
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 1?
78,440,239
78,440,239
77661ec37718bd66c3c7818537ad60716264bc74
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0xa616e86f819a10ab20667ed8c6502455bc4b436e8edabfc25ad1f718409fb722
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.24002048479184473 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo...
no
0.649123
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 2?
78,509,015
78,509,015
43ed5a274d8e68be6b00468b14da84fb1844212b
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0xa6e1a78089fb474d3124018f41fe593ec48b1eb22e586e77ff6e2c4f5dac9a6c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
yes
0.243754
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-1
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 1?
78,509,015
78,509,015
4e500e11ab8fafff8393d8dfee4b147a3d8c0286
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0xb1ae70abd92cc5772cc8d3a105e565de41c99d471d8595eb1070f6002d12e9c6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 2?
78,509,015
78,509,015
b334b6df5e77b46b75d80b5f9c2d98a39f467811
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x5d630357cf73509e236d91015f2b9f82db40348fd9d7a1638b2351739896b7de
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3684210526315789 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon...
yes
0.2
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-4
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 4?
78,639,157
78,639,157
816d375775dd299f0308c2fc6c43ab33a04141b1
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x8058184700cb7626df3e63a41f52d32c755bdb575d98c13d5be79399339f1b12
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3181818181818182 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo...
no
0.5
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-4
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 4?
78,639,157
78,639,157
5f60735817a1d98accf957d90da12fa30813888e
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0xc69296904db04156655d14a9184a7bdfc09382a328f840af70f4bb0559729ae3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
no
0.428571
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-6
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 6?
78,680,205
78,680,205
c099e5bc11519ab12965857b8caeb8b423da8448
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x23887ee60ff29e7395c2d729a4bde1d000407ce7d93849cc3405cb46283d2218
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
no
0.116284
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-7
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 7?
78,711,642
78,711,642
775d554c14f51448d00e9113b1a8876a4a2e6f28
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x9fdbe803e39ccb18cea7d9708bf2935a43eab591b24b860388886e0b07634b6d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.368192656765266 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-6
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 6?
78,711,642
78,711,642
e9c2f4599225f45b4477bcadd832ec7411d9b4cd
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x3092fbf643e9c22db891138395e29a8df8459ba7f4c8b9be241668b4af3fb63b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.507537688442211 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-7
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 7?
78,755,896
78,755,896
b721d83a6e47f32bc66c02bb94b549b4dcfc8f21
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x38446d4689ae1ca4e20fa050037ccca2cedf637a8533977563c8c82b613509b7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 8?
78,755,896
78,755,896
f946d8a9bde43b9a4e5dc178cf53ec52eef0174e
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0xe33cec5eb8c35e3c241c34fee7a50b8e86b90827cea660acc59c4dbed10bd010
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
no
0.212129
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 8?
78,766,115
78,766,115
14c3cc997a2e9d0c967df1b1ccc7cdc59d87fb15
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x44ab4e24799e1c182c8cd5012e8b466ab99af77c25d005630b3a25901d7255b5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october...
yes
0.078414
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 9?
78,807,711
78,807,711
ddbec3f3525be10d17c257bace42961da7ab0e98
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x764d91b593a11113b5b046aca71dde1e290eda4f57eddd1d05c472955105846a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
no
0.071161
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 10?
78,836,985
78,836,985
40ccfd342c3321e97bde093f997aebf1efb508f3
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x9e60b45d246ad30f5cda9ba08925d88714c339780a2482bb6d3f3e91d087d4c6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.21839295091843672 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-l...
yes
0.424218
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 9?
78,836,985
78,836,985
fe681d61d6b09b35b2c617b148af1219be1e0dad
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x80098e132e711a4bae171c63419a79e1c18fbf0f3dc4a7a67788c0bdd8d28991
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0456751053316899 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon...
no
0.198455
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 10?
78,878,733
78,878,733
f869eff4abc6c36e232d55702fafd8598a14ebd6
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x84366701794731971cb37401645575953142477abe138a9319a12e6081616f15
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09090909090909091 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on October 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon...
yes
0.204819
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 10?
78,878,733
78,878,733
4d3c10971c27ce081e87073a5924987586ad7f47
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x04e05cb6f861aab0a88a405467407dea71d341b4e6b0366192e301813890a561
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on October 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0887063823947587 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lond...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 11?
78,917,544
78,917,544
9c5a67ce99a22fa6f14e6563d51366a599fd178e
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x1bc922173daf67c5a1e8f35e0ef98eb0ebdf9e18b9c78cad6dff4807fa3214f5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
no
0.869639
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 11?
78,917,544
78,917,544
aede3df3da1b11a2f4e88bb5c6d6f1c21293afeb
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x97bedc646b578fe9396ea40ae6a90c590d07255cde30daf26a341cbae49f0c94
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3035509736540664 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-11
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 11?
78,917,544
78,917,544
7169f6b63b3eb5fbcbcd4b03d6900146cebc1207
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x4c7ba018dce639894e2d3884c647830c12d7deec863f3bb821f894ffc096674e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9519948957247197 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo...
no
0.447525
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 12?
78,939,141
78,939,141
16bec7cb7808f0abb1d19a297a6e3ab26de5a15b
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x71245919977c52d334137315be63a05b1cb4ef42cf6d8b96251519a78111adeb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.041235839332986496 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-l...
no
0.30831
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 12?
78,939,141
78,939,141
a2603bbbded200d85e9a59ffb81ee9c9dbbe14a3
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x43f82441133ef912418dbe66851b47c68a48a6d50aeeb05b7802620ae3dcda75
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4605763593171335 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo...
no
0.268309
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 13?
78,973,223
78,973,223
27df16880fc53a2df5a43b992a00f8a59bf5a8be
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x67213cb0bc46d635a7837278c3f49229bdd2338959f61a92ad0ba9adf7a0241c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-...
yes
0.813062
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-13
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 13?
78,982,274
78,982,274
4a22f56b30bd2b76fd29bfec43b341992cf3dafa
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0xe07e1787a39ab463a6338b333b2e3da957b0f5777fa93fbe3ac54d67f29098b6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8575675006192718 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo...
yes
0.060709
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-14
Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 14?
79,025,813
79,025,813
3f9cd2d946659ff2d22549759b0a10adb77413f1
0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0
0x3a533951ea3b8975353f16736d18f67ad76cd2ab74e0d2016a2cfabb10fb20cc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.623451444063712 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-15
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 15?
79,086,188
79,086,188
d51df484989a9e2d1a8d85c904f554d1eef0715d
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0xe82f38c1b2ac991c81accf576bf73949f53b17d53d9c361d0bb6098e845887fe
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
no
0.035364
elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25?
63,313,500
63,313,500
53191d79888c65d0ac64463a9ce583a526349981
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0x5cd8e90335dd795381d97af8ab320d34687d43833893a33381ac08b18494c2f0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873 Target market: Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 Predict the user's choice and confidence for th...
yes
1
elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25
Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25?
63,341,539
63,341,539
5f5809564d66e5443f16da94c54ea07e66f2dae8
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0xcd1b6b71a1964f15e2c14809594cbfa0d576270e8ef94c8c24913121097e09e5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: W...
yes
1
presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
64,201,754
64,201,754
4210adf56c4242e9352b65c04f965f130b08fe6c
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0x690d3465e98bad7f46551129064c47c8306d9794052155a23e467b28a928ba15
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Donald Tr...
yes
1
october-2024-temperature-increase-c
Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.29-1.34°C?
64,201,762
64,201,762
731d788b8cc6731a1894d23e46aa5369c10aaddf
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0x0e512a7a83b4e4d3f43b073af887341458922dd4b4929b7e0a4722d6c74a3f00
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Donald Tr...
no
1
who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated?
64,201,787
64,201,894
a53628276d69fb5ac3d93a4082363c3bf5719b2b
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0xc5a29d7da91c765c5b8b45dc5f86147558ad0d16bb18e7ca14a74e3b5e3ebf9a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Donald Tr...
no
1
who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated?
67,040,604
67,040,604
3e9963eddecc21b14db2556fb17b5fc20f1c41e5
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0x3f56bae1879b7336e2e77fd2955557216cd305cff2481844e799050b364a3ef8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Donald Tr...
yes
0.957447
germany-parliamentary-election
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?
67,713,631
67,713,631
eee1b3ac7ca7e3c73b6e48a8e1b645b2aafa6139
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0xe0ed19a565d1cb5c583128cdb23d72869af4a85c50358de4de88cce20e68b000
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Donald Tr...
no
1
what-chain-will-kanye-launch-his-token-on
Will Kanye launch a token on Solana?
68,279,406
68,279,406
72f032a1d7484a54f787e8e7821be31089b2a931
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0x1921202aa3f884b9c562a244f1e58417d93c9315e6768d27768eb3b2abc2c95b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Donald Tr...
yes
1
germany-parliamentary-election
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
68,550,483
68,550,483
b1ffda00075cf0030c5417f9a2016117c9c88f53
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0x7cc7d231f746f5d4c063248ce5c678c3fecf0145f8d2f39fba9dbec19b2ebb20
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Donald Tr...
yes
1
trump-approval-rating-on-march-28
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28?
69,356,825
69,356,825
c2bce1300b51772a6c728afe64888186ecd7b7f4
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0xb9d3f8d504d0da9f35065793fce7a82b5089e5e747a3a1d95b2aa2f9688b0a00
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Donald Tr...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-25
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25?
69,394,255
69,394,255
a068b7e47fd4aa31623487b0d279a746ca5d21c5
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0xb128e5a640692cc8e6e24a734b5ee7d29f06ca1138d321c70bd440bee5c9306d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Donald Tr...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-25
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on March 25?
69,515,257
69,515,257
f439d0a280898db6474535ce8fb5b47dd5f5e24c
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0x23ef9b04ac11bfccf11ee3bce72792c6deb68900ee1424d0185c0b310458c342
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Donald Tr...
yes
1
trump-approval-rating-on-march-28
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28?
71,306,619
71,306,619
6d1dbcae5622c00940e24eee8e7a532a7f2fb776
0x19a4dcced146489aed0fd4b7d6d74b3ae46cd51f
0x27dad32b48d6d8ca8535ffd8f155db3c1dbe3863bb38247447b81ea629680dd4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03536367259931873 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Donald Tr...
yes
1
what-chain-will-kanye-launch-his-token-on
Will Kanye launch a token on Ethereum?
71,306,619
71,306,619
69480f61c0fd3ce624f24f52de65e42a6668aa50
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0x4bdf0155cbd6d59d298ec0ce3b6d6f70c1a0e542f935e457f8c08075627dc925
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
yes
1
epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26?
78,310,303
78,310,303
42c57a4d99279122bbee32236a0d8734a34a6e8c
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0xccad2266625a75d200bf15d2cd86c93a28355381e898ce1a80c3f9910872211d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON...
no
0.036692
lol-worlds-2025-winning-region
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025?
78,522,213
78,522,213
53f29df73c364efd6d8240472681ceb92e0d1868
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0x6970efb99d2ce1fedf443f813f8b91a633abdf8140394769929efd9d84c08e79
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 Target market: Question: Lakers vs. Hawks Even...
lakers
0.045523
nba-lal-atl-2025-11-09
Lakers vs. Hawks
78,753,915
78,753,915
53159cc59df257c6f5bc1901ec887c51510ef2e6
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0xa201124f1421c39673f834dc55f82560d3b7734772254f9e72fcb35fe441d41f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
no
0.466049
lol-worlds-2025-winner
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?
78,783,496
78,783,496
ddb5984dad32ae3fdca4137d1aea5f8b73452905
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0x2700c8cc1b14280f4144a511f8bae2b1482fbe2742304a9dea7b079d0c38546b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
bulls
0
nba-chi-det-2025-11-12
Bulls vs. Pistons
78,918,253
78,994,771
b27735751b164223e97430732adb061173abb702
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0x10b839f970b99348774ad8dba5c80602187253fa6c2f2224a9bb13d0a60e11ee
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
bucks
0
nba-mil-cha-2025-11-12
Bucks vs. Hornets
78,918,256
78,954,799
5e2df8df248f3a90eb93d4b8a289c8d1bae9d585
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0x95a77d8cfcdc73774188da694485b3a079dfe61d6618bb32af85464eef4c7dac
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
knicks
0
nba-orl-nyk-2025-11-12
Magic vs. Knicks
78,918,259
78,952,911
d822d0d5f859f219e41d4d415b2ec0de2ecdc671
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0xac87571452772319b1e597d73ed7314c942ffe6fdd829567dc315e7aa5c338a2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
cavaliers
0
nba-cle-mia-2025-11-12
Cavaliers vs. Heat
78,923,501
78,994,771
c706295a53d711726b95f08efd451d2e79e19467
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0x1fa0a429c2183b5423564b1c6294214ba01be7ffd6344d2fd3500f0e98e58481
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
hawks
0
nba-atl-sac-2025-11-12
Hawks vs. Kings
78,923,516
78,994,771
d89b2b8e8e3bb1ee2859ac9397c3557da0274bd0
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0x06f4b1cd367aa0abbb6c56d9f9270e5e8806a6f35deec96ace73ff812870d864
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
spurs
0.14286
nba-gsw-sas-2025-11-12
Warriors vs. Spurs
78,926,099
78,928,199
b75cb6a494eb6bd942079e5c9b52380f2b0d4864
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0x6c3263def96926aef638d96263b61936b08519de4bc0d50e9f1c71510a5a9869
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
mavericks
0.272719
nba-phx-dal-2025-11-12
Suns vs. Mavericks
78,928,205
78,928,205
dcbb1bd62866cb53381c3119e93e62fcc11e2d65
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0xac1b0b481c7ffa6a61748b4a3427b30b1d55576b62504e174e96327a8e821687
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
76ers
0.232632
nba-tor-phi-2025-11-19
Raptors vs. 76ers
79,231,239
79,236,160
e899f9eba124c83b4519ca378c941bd90af8189c
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0x923e397fd9321c84f082131fa977c685e7da172f5fb3300179e8206550f28f40
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
canadiens
0
nhl-wsh-mon-2025-11-20
Capitals vs. Canadiens
79,271,837
79,299,099
033b92fb51ba481791c9f33953b2491a1bf37cff
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0xa435a13903bc9c8483a1a32de90b4878f85857a887ead28b41fb1d84cb446054
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
clippers
0
nba-lac-orl-2025-11-20
Clippers vs. Magic
79,271,840
79,299,099
2c36d61e530cc53da442e1d630a0ace2d2b84cb5
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0x48e643a93888373f93e64dfc22038fa38e9f0eef2d5a739e76fc8ab0881dc1c3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
yes
1
epl-new-mac-2025-11-22
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22?
79,384,567
79,384,567
e1d21f91486c8a9adf4812dcd8353ab0a113e252
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0xa4741df4f013ac2a7c5c44667074b0b76d1e600291a6d39ac6888428c9b07c02
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
bengals
0
nfl-ne-cin-2025-11-23
Patriots vs. Bengals
79,406,435
79,430,543
a285cb756700df3ee41cc73f28185a173fd2ea35
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0xaaca3c792f030c897d98ea2f8a824d1842a3f31d054baf9523623270b8a8cea1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
76ers
0
nba-mia-phi-2025-11-23
Heat vs. 76ers
79,407,970
79,430,543
a472f2da2771732b5c3490a14b0a6bea2d37d63d
0x19fdff7b217f7cc5e602ecab13c1947527f05838
0x393931eb887f76e3f8058cecb1e8b6e9e99f36a53379bea55d23a5776b3f4d8a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03669160096649861 3. Question: Lakers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-lal-...
yes
1
epl-lee-ast-2025-11-23
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-23?
79,410,370
79,410,370
f716d7aacf30d894c2d5ad1d9dec1c37d24a7bda
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x587536de2c7033d5f215d1ff9a5a98ecc4a2c12825b41e953955c40a795b0cbe
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
dodgers
0
mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19
Dodgers vs. Rockies
75,421,268
75,421,425
a1e2c13aeeef3a5a52554c57d28e83d1c5ac8cb8
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x9cca0cd4d6c510986659a750acddf47e39713c08866f7a3c63c8dd5bdc9a5065
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 Target market: Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confi...
yes
1
epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17?
75,423,025
75,423,025
b9b2b4c70bca80e7cfe993525391321eb77a4811
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x761bee123baa6f8cede920213492221408f3e41a5246764e7288428e1604db2f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA Event: league-of-...
dn freecs
0
league-of-legends-dn-freecs-vs-dplus-kia
League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA
75,838,848
75,838,848
a01d26caf9c29cd3008d9fda85ef62383e4eb6c4
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0xeacdda74a1718cd5d853ae4e4803be0de2196a9d399a06e33552c8445d3aa2af
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
yes
1
epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20
Will Liverpool vs. Everton end in a draw?
76,688,728
76,688,728
8e28bd15d8662befa802bf5f9bfa7cd8c0f9d451
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0xd8d66de78c4a7af451e7047643e66da550d1c8eb22466b65309331091cf8d0dd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
jd gaming
0
lol-jd-gaming-weibo-gaming-2025-09-26
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming
76,924,407
76,941,180
9df81b60a9c81b59541984990c97a29e2631def5
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x9f49a004c854ada068c1ffe4cdd189433b698d258e2cb7f357f3e5b7203e6936
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
yes
1
epl-cry-liv-2025-09-27
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27?
76,987,527
76,987,527
2a5f089784854e4f2a5328079f152bbad06d25fc
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x2e72270655209e7d0912ac49bb9bf17f09b76a880f6f9fa85714393954b5cb62
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
dodgers
0
mlb-lad-sea-2025-09-27
Dodgers vs. Mariners
76,991,757
76,997,167
15fb201fa0935f42b034eef2bdc344d5c95875ce
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x9ba69acbef80c3124c8ea46f7fd85fa7072144494c24dc24e2b859b06b31b7dc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
no
1
epl-ars-wes-2025-10-04
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-04?
77,270,782
77,270,782
15fc7887925c21c7030ee13c6e5d61b5dd20fc0f
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0xd3c36efd820875f3f4706ed80e12100e62f4e90dafe57749c211b66d6773bf8a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
no
1
epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04?
77,270,782
77,270,782
ba251f4d9503b6f1b047845c519918c2b2f5e75a
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x5be2baa4127624bb749feb333d2e65f32ee7a70c98d866d3064453bdccf5b29e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
browns
0
nfl-min-cle-2025-10-05
Vikings vs. Browns
77,291,948
77,327,296
f978c96c75033ca00c7f353102d7a55daf278200
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0xc6b734cb08be267e4f3d9b8fa377ee33aa8e1810875ccd565946b904dc607364
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
no
1
epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05?
77,327,296
77,327,296
9b337553ccd11efab565d6ab83c5bed4d6667771
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0xf9bf52f9bd566306d677ee3deee8e456738c49d9ec2e734572d1a1e9e958e1b5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
no
1
valorant-champions-2025
Will NRG win VALORANT Champions 2025?
77,327,296
77,327,296
f43ddf0a35b9bbca0eef8eb85f6257922fa74ce2
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x811df1e5331e63beaaf94b0154d616f7f592e815c0d447d8220f1038d7b6b2ed
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
bucks
0
nba-mil-mia-2025-10-06
Bucks vs. Heat
77,351,453
77,369,797
7d54033edb12822bbf44716014b4271b86cf2839
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x5b2c274544424900f6bc67373d4bda41ac90fad6ff12129829b3095a146bab81
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
spurs
1
nba-sas-mia-2025-10-08
Spurs vs. Heat
77,441,118
77,441,118
27b705ce497beef763b90a9f336930e909a0e757
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0xb9fc427ba63c533d9cb7dfa6b1b4a7235e1fb341e222c28545bffc97832d0f63
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
nets
0
nba-phx-bkn-2025-10-10
Suns vs. Nets
77,457,405
77,590,009
b53441f55d2935c38cdf84b0ba9bd7a490b6b115
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x644edb5123778628470fbcb9fd3c131e69cfa418e41f3bfa66c5bc22854f2578
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
pacers
0
nba-okc-ind-2025-10-11
Thunder vs. Pacers
77,567,488
77,567,488
72c019f55a10f8f6e997f4688941e672fff5da70
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0xa7aeaaae036e316c1e7e0542fa31595117dee8735ef88b3d9ceda85b1b3d1534
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
chiefs
0
nfl-det-kc-2025-10-12
Lions vs. Chiefs
77,606,138
77,606,138
4bdc34b278fec109fba0886087866ee0d0edd225
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x50e58b68920ac25a8880bfa778b2d857f3da9449618ff5d2353025393b2afeb5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
spurs
0.777778
nba-sas-ind-2025-10-13
Spurs vs. Pacers
77,650,675
77,650,675
81d606c313a70d717777beed4d365c04725140ec
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0xa151364eb13438a4994da7d9606eb5590bb6a99df8be7ac34b9ebb4c6b7c4f2b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
no
0.333333
arg-pla-rie-2025-10-13
Will CA Platense win on 2025-10-13?
77,650,675
77,656,937
2699e81f3a446bc0095c5f039e0c5d2e7eec70f6
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0xc95ed1a49bd00f4ffdd9b23f0f5ab21432a6c8dd684e6432ca22dfb6ef044369
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
imperial
0
cs2-navi-imp-2025-10-15
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Imperial (BO3)
77,718,264
77,718,393
197cd231e257b2351126a94fb54075c79cd3180b
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x4ae3f62847da298b9f375e5dbdcaccfeb836b4330b7ffae11653a137ca846dad
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
no
1
epl-mac-eve-2025-10-18
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-18?
77,801,059
77,801,059
43dbcede0558416a557c7320f3a9021cb08c6a3c
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0xe0d9de962e0a53a2276c8ac5b192fd97e1d2ec74a386d2d7022b83ae86464489
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
commanders
0
nfl-was-dal-2025-10-19
Commanders vs. Cowboys
77,822,965
77,927,800
c96c8107fa4ad5704b250208453ad0943d311ad7
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x21266b09a61f34c18beae22b066779c8cbd0a4c97db2f554821a3a0157aa26be
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
brewers
0
mlb-mil-lad-2025-10-17
Brewers vs. Dodgers
77,825,121
77,840,738
c4e43ab8f35c77475951c050afb7437f7627675f
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x6210e3f2b38254ce59bce9f8b469ba5d8df3f8136334e5250458275facff7978
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
furia
0
cs2-furia-navi-2025-10-19
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO5)
77,891,078
77,891,078
63920b92249e3505e9659f3ce7954f79cbeb9d38
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0xdd584402aa8693672ae06e69c0b9bc2f7c5ed5864500bcd615002e10a5d44bcb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
yes
1
bra-fla-pal-2025-10-19
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-19?
77,907,966
77,907,966
bf7409560a424ad24685d616205bd8c76e1cc423
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x5a0f9776be6c742291ec44debf3b4c56f6c3b9271e96b073eeb80ea6b38caeb6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
yes
0.119664
epl-che-sun-2025-10-25
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25?
78,040,347
78,167,408
6c71a26f40c25c9dd7192c96bc42615c8d339e0a
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0xc0c0941e8774b0d0df1fd8f84ab7b83076a1675a1feb214e426579beb3046aec
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
chargers
0
nfl-min-lac-2025-10-23
Vikings vs. Chargers
78,080,822
78,080,822
af796b620a7881615b216ebeec92f6eb5b4feeb7
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0xa696b4ed502d38afcd01e6bae64e1ff5eab31b99dbf88b43c51b822b221245ed
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
lakers
0
nba-min-lal-2025-10-24
Timberwolves vs. Lakers
78,124,523
78,124,523
8a1701a73519e6a8338d9403f17955e26feb7eb6
0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de
0x0e6937036c2aafc80bbec96adae28ca1f60b805586c1ff850ed8ec139ed950df
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-...
ctbc flying oyster
1
lol-cfo-fly-2025-10-25
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3)
78,139,697
78,139,697