sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
c0836b63182078b0be2e8090683cbc34609bb283 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x4cef0ac44f4a10a958b3f676ce945a0ffe1b16d0e7eac0abcf432bce7b99ea77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? | 78,167,408 | 78,167,408 |
28c4c4ecec924f70037a69edaf6c024b13c94949 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x4c9ccd1404d105968de9b1ff3226fbafdc0b6e402a26bbcad3a84a1b62296783 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-08-19 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-... | yes | 0.647059 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | 78,264,992 | 78,491,423 |
23d4a0e10ab51818d6877c2e375ef1a11e92dae8 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x29d15cd3baca180265c9ef079eb49716ee9c768159a9294b1cced875ca47af6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-freecs-vs-dplus-kia | Choice: dn freecs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Everton end... | gen.g | 0 | lol-gen-kt-2025-11-01 | LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) | 78,439,663 | 78,445,968 |
1e5427ab1047a03949a89600092896602a47c021 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x48707ae9e40a7494cb85d790623eb3c9009295a72fb98782fd42ded0d336af63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. Dplus KIA | Event: league-of-legends-dn-freecs-vs-dplus-kia | Choice: dn freecs | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Everton end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming... | yes | 0.504531 | lol-worlds-2025-winner | Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? | 78,445,968 | 78,473,300 |
18b23923aef0df56c084184d69e8f4ddef19f322 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x0eb64f96119793960339f7b86d0b1500432206173f34e74f0d63b252e5ff188f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Everton end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming | Event: lol-jd-gaming-weibo-gaming-2025-09-26 | Choice: jd gaming | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? | Event: ep... | no | 1 | epl-not-mun-2025-11-01 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? | 78,469,794 | 78,469,794 |
f0cff2faaa26e4e47762bd812c8ca7b1e8b0cfa6 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x0a69601d8ccda200e6af21ebeb5bc64e76657dd573d7e1b09eb4e21b02a25132 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming | Event: lol-jd-gaming-weibo-gaming-2025-09-26 | Choice: jd gaming | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-cry-liv-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Dodgers vs. Mariners | Event: mlb-lad-sea-2025-09-27 ... | no | 0.759394 | epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | 78,473,125 | 78,473,333 |
85867d38354896055189c0836e256bf9b3172e4b | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xd608371cde69e478a508339ef02e033badb03e39ffe95a062adcf6366a98ff3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-cry-liv-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Dodgers vs. Mariners | Event: mlb-lad-sea-2025-09-27 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-ars-wes-2025-10-04 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? | 78,473,300 | 78,473,300 |
c2c026e7d840bf6f72ef41e257d45e0778c7a6c6 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xc32b7f21c709209e9b2f57045ab374cd1e58540ceafeb652bf2fe433d626b1e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Mariners | Event: mlb-lad-sea-2025-09-27 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-ars-wes-2025-10-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | bra-fla-rec-2025-11-01 | Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-01? | 78,477,841 | 78,477,841 |
71509405a2f054c7d5f6f34aa1ccf300f6c5f60b | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x1073cc3483263763397b853cb095ac8451f7e26b5a94231b5973c14bf6e7a95a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-ars-wes-2025-10-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Vikings vs. Browns | Event: nfl-min-cle-2025-10-05 | Choice: browns... | no | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? | 78,491,423 | 78,491,423 |
2d97077f3fdd0208e263ff15e3918a60d7ceac73 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xb68c5e1dd36093e8c6a84cd74cc594a554c14de105a864e52e15b30c9070d34a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Vikings vs. Browns | Event: nfl-min-cle-2025-10-05 | Choice: browns | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Ch... | bills | 0 | nfl-kc-buf-2025-11-02 | Chiefs vs. Bills | 78,511,090 | 78,511,090 |
825d5560ba9a175267502d400dd56755f8fcfb44 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x75b00641afb54f05220333423d6f70be3fee7b73e27bc078492ebdb8bc792fdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Vikings vs. Browns | Event: nfl-min-cle-2025-10-05 | Choice: browns | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will NRG win VALORANT Champions 2025? | Event: valorant-champions-2025 | Choic... | yes | 1 | bra-juv-pal-2025-11-02 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-02? | 78,521,890 | 78,521,890 |
905d1ed2fe4e47bba04ea0ceda0f1bc73526ed56 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xdaabc6970b0c19844e4babc0e71a3994877fad201eba43847d82a242eaae92c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NRG win VALORANT Champions 2025? | Event: valorant-champions-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bucks vs. Heat | Event: nba-mil-mia-2025-10-06 | Choice: bucks... | clippers | 0.690121 | nba-okc-lac-2025-11-05 | Thunder vs. Clippers | 78,606,963 | 78,606,963 |
7fc152c234db8d2c4ccdb6263bcc1926f9a3d98b | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x9fcbd3551bc2ba7a2726153702762641890c442fb761c5eae9944ec4acd475f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NRG win VALORANT Champions 2025? | Event: valorant-champions-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bucks vs. Heat | Event: nba-mil-mia-2025-10-06 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Spurs vs. Heat | Event: nba-sas-mia-2025-10-08 | Choice: spurs | Confidence: 1.0
4. ... | lakers | 0 | nba-sas-lal-2025-11-06 | Spurs vs. Lakers | 78,636,485 | 78,660,062 |
b0d1b4799f83112b2d8ac90c21d0db5b830ab9d0 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x62a0e49a5a0f008ae477ac6511fe93ce6d43c695f32c14deb565841900db8fe8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bucks vs. Heat | Event: nba-mil-mia-2025-10-06 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Heat | Event: nba-sas-mia-2025-10-08 | Choice: spurs | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Suns vs. Nets | Event: nba-phx-bkn-2025-10-10 | Choice: nets | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: Thunder vs. P... | knicks | 0 | nba-min-nyk-2025-11-06 | Timberwolves vs. Knicks | 78,646,759 | 78,646,759 |
77a7276c02727f9d9da499e67b8c6a2e4df23c30 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x4f53e9fb03898122d067d783951b24258c5238af6e015472f01d855e47fef4f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spurs vs. Heat | Event: nba-sas-mia-2025-10-08 | Choice: spurs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Suns vs. Nets | Event: nba-phx-bkn-2025-10-10 | Choice: nets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Pacers | Event: nba-okc-ind-2025-10-11 | Choice: pacers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: Lions vs... | yes | 1 | bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-05? | 78,667,600 | 78,667,600 |
1628aad1f44bad54d5dbd84fa6e00cddf2a3389f | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x918aa60447412caf05d843dcf0205c1ad67d7a71bc8b9493d7c3e8281736f9de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Suns vs. Nets | Event: nba-phx-bkn-2025-10-10 | Choice: nets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Thunder vs. Pacers | Event: nba-okc-ind-2025-10-11 | Choice: pacers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Lions vs. Chiefs | Event: nfl-det-kc-2025-10-12 | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: Spurs ... | yes | 1 | bra-sao-fla-2025-11-05 | Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-05? | 78,667,600 | 78,667,600 |
41d3b2f4fc658ce8f42638b44b681d87d2118f4c | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xc7badca7470be581bf9e07c7d538f1b6fd30a952b1ef8b9bbfd6dbcd2f033a99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Thunder vs. Pacers | Event: nba-okc-ind-2025-10-11 | Choice: pacers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Lions vs. Chiefs | Event: nfl-det-kc-2025-10-12 | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Spurs vs. Pacers | Event: nba-sas-ind-2025-10-13 | Choice: spurs | Confidence: 0.7777777777777778
... | no | 1 | ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? | 78,667,600 | 78,667,600 |
b7e09a8570c9ab8ced19623b7c849e7c4f764e10 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xaf99a5c5519564526775ee2d839b8da3ad6dfc7debd6df0c216e0ab8ab3d9e85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Lions vs. Chiefs | Event: nfl-det-kc-2025-10-12 | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Pacers | Event: nba-sas-ind-2025-10-13 | Choice: spurs | Confidence: 0.7777777777777778
3. Question: Will CA Platense win on 2025-10-13? | Event: arg-pla-rie-2025-10-13 | Choice: no | Con... | aurora | 0 | dota2-aur1-heroic-2025-11-07 | Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) | 78,684,235 | 78,733,929 |
3f9c0a12309edb7504e0a6c634c7afb9fcce887a | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x2a073dba2d819e790bac00f78b3bcc8cf0d408ca9ca7a6430ff4ec3669753c70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spurs vs. Pacers | Event: nba-sas-ind-2025-10-13 | Choice: spurs | Confidence: 0.7777777777777778
2. Question: Will CA Platense win on 2025-10-13? | Event: arg-pla-rie-2025-10-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Imperial (BO3) | Event... | broncos | 0 | nfl-lv-den-2025-11-06 | Raiders vs. Broncos | 78,687,495 | 78,710,233 |
c255ab12a83a430bc6cc9d766ad5c1a8580281b3 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x6baa96a2e7f0a46e00b8449b40f13b9c199b41eaa713e31d0b4c82b68d238331 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Platense win on 2025-10-13? | Event: arg-pla-rie-2025-10-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Imperial (BO3) | Event: cs2-navi-imp-2025-10-15 | Choice: imperial | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-10... | no | 0.023541 | epl-tot-mun-2025-11-08 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? | 78,753,987 | 78,777,651 |
e7293b63aae998bf548f61cc5b6bdea498958068 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x34da915352034059e0fc47b677cb2ca87d189cb797f92c0684dcb275e6af34c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Imperial (BO3) | Event: cs2-navi-imp-2025-10-15 | Choice: imperial | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-mac-eve-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Commanders vs. Cowboys | Event: nfl-was-dal-20... | no | 1 | lol-worlds-2025-winner | Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? | 78,813,801 | 78,813,801 |
45a3a5accbee82f797e2a6878ab321944386c69a | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x13b6a64c8abd266c81e4bcad39279a51045797a0dcbfaec60a011220a5e56eec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-mac-eve-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Commanders vs. Cowboys | Event: nfl-was-dal-2025-10-19 | Choice: commanders | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-mil-lad-2025-10-17 | Choice: brewers ... | yes | 1 | bra-cor1-csc-2025-11-09 | Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-09? | 78,839,346 | 78,839,346 |
eaa5ad06cc87580de81a4b5faadb8f8925b5b802 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x17bd35bd21a7e660b11223e730e62b4304a37af8053941808633f1771d6b0bbf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Commanders vs. Cowboys | Event: nfl-was-dal-2025-10-19 | Choice: commanders | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brewers vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-mil-lad-2025-10-17 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO5) | Event: cs2-furia-navi-2025-10-19 | Cho... | no | 1 | bra-fla-san-2025-11-09 | Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-09? | 78,839,346 | 78,839,346 |
7df567ce9afc6c18db35abdc8da42b87698aadf3 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x4c8ae430a2a3f5f3bb0d7ecd58ad1b37a85de601d54e0ce49ab33caeab74162a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Brewers vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-mil-lad-2025-10-17 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO5) | Event: cs2-furia-navi-2025-10-19 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bra-fla-pal-2025-10-... | no | 1 | arg-boc-riv-2025-11-09 | Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-11-09? | 78,839,346 | 78,839,346 |
a68403c142265bdc0523167c60e180bd545eda33 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xa201124f1421c39673f834dc55f82560d3b7734772254f9e72fcb35fe441d41f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO5) | Event: cs2-furia-navi-2025-10-19 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bra-fla-pal-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-... | no | 1 | lol-worlds-2025-winner | Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? | 78,839,346 | 78,839,346 |
f5e3bff1cb1bf376d5678ec1ff11e49e90866f4f | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xdf8636bec29393bae223fb910255971b483df157075a3192906a3a684f11f7dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bra-fla-pal-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.11966410076976906
3. Question: Vikings vs. Chargers | Event: nfl-min-lac-2025-10-23 | ... | yes | 1 | bra-fla-san-2025-11-09 | Will CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC end in a draw? | 78,839,346 | 78,839,346 |
6e5da6bdd20da8b86d99296205eaedbb5b18590b | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x4c23dc2b9e39806471fcb88722b554e305ab698529292156abfd0fcf4aa9be1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.11966410076976906
2. Question: Vikings vs. Chargers | Event: nfl-min-lac-2025-10-23 | Choice: chargers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Timberwolves vs. Lakers | Event: nba-min-lal-2025-10-24 | Choice:... | heat | 0 | nba-mia-nyk-2025-11-14 | Heat vs. Knicks | 78,921,651 | 79,047,725 |
f51b690293c4776bafc53e18d6e53f4f9b82dee0 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x06f4b1cd367aa0abbb6c56d9f9270e5e8806a6f35deec96ace73ff812870d864 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Vikings vs. Chargers | Event: nfl-min-lac-2025-10-23 | Choice: chargers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Lakers | Event: nba-min-lal-2025-10-24 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) | Event: lol-cfo-fly-2025-10-25 | Choice: ct... | spurs | 0 | nba-gsw-sas-2025-11-12 | Warriors vs. Spurs | 78,946,380 | 78,965,889 |
480c927f0712f4b46bbc376b7400ca7d60c920d8 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xac87571452772319b1e597d73ed7314c942ffe6fdd829567dc315e7aa5c338a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Timberwolves vs. Lakers | Event: nba-min-lal-2025-10-24 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) | Event: lol-cfo-fly-2025-10-25 | Choice: ctbc flying oyster | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-bre-liv-... | cavaliers | 0 | nba-cle-mia-2025-11-12 | Cavaliers vs. Heat | 78,948,202 | 78,948,202 |
aa4970de3a8b7b342bc6c0ef5b6840804d9522b8 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x633f00659167ce8341416340fcb7ef5a79c742b5454eb3a0f83b6871e8d6d711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) | Event: lol-cfo-fly-2025-10-25 | Choice: ctbc flying oyster | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Se... | yes | 1 | bra-cam-fec-2025-11-12 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-12? | 78,965,889 | 78,965,889 |
9168e4059cd4c83747793ebe78b411ddb09b1c60 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xe7ed183298cc1fcb8a42266ec82128f29c261201395751cfef4c0a2b7fcb5ea9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6470588235294118
3. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) |... | furia | 0 | cs2-furia-vit-2025-11-13 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) | 78,965,909 | 78,965,909 |
753cb76744ecb796206aac5a805ed164f05924dc | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x4fdf4569d63f78659049bf1e3430eaeb7bcde3ce3f72764793e1e4628d4f1c14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6470588235294118
2. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) | Event: lol-gen-kt-2025-11-01 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? | ... | heat | 0 | nba-nyk-mia-2025-11-17 | Knicks vs. Heat | 79,057,862 | 79,057,862 |
ab520dd51dc2efb4511ebdd661d826c50250a213 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x3bf50cbd8d2337812fb370022f1dcbd08a68fe0f47796659f214d0cf86c75081 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) | Event: lol-gen-kt-2025-11-01 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5045305694385948
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-not-m... | yes | 0.603232 | bra-rec-fla-2025-11-15 | Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-15? | 79,092,310 | 79,092,310 |
e4a6a037a65630ba9708a3fb82900846d4257035 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xe4583b1596d7f2ff718d09050a77730930b9619803c6c6c2d07d69d4b3285cbf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5045305694385948
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-not-mun-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-liv-... | yes | 0.250129 | bra-san-pal-2025-11-15 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-15? | 79,097,116 | 79,097,116 |
efeef423f102d240dadd4504f725277cca063d8c | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x27b5ee49b22b7d6e7cfea961cfa5b77f2e326b47700d0c1c9a9c820afc25bb46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-not-mun-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7593942026354226
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-bur-a... | no | 0.52169 | bra-bra-cam-2025-11-16 | Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-16? | 79,117,268 | 79,124,670 |
a8c894c6efad800591979b8f9a6de81ff5d3a047 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0xd046599899089a4e695e1fff59ed221d03f4227d5fc9b14a33d9b83c83288166 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7593942026354226
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bra-fla-rec-202... | no | 0.736434 | arg-boc-tig-2025-11-16 | Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-11-16? | 79,120,886 | 79,124,670 |
dbf66a70a15f345950df0e42fab75e593a5bc8cf | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x451e55af70f0206803f5b2344bd72a53092ab5a03e8cd4bbf0993db49e948bd1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bra-fla-rec-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-s... | yes | 1 | arg-vel-riv-2025-11-16 | Will CA River Plate win on 2025-11-16? | 79,121,871 | 79,121,871 |
4e28fa38b0c646fb59ea62211e123c02f4554fe0 | 0x19fe88da83a58ac50bb76f30804c7934011933de | 0x990da5cb42847870916d21704ca03e89968fa47ad2423dc53b23fd703e2aa3e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bra-fla-rec-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Chiefs vs. Bills | Event: nfl-kc-buf-2025-11... | no | 1 | cs2-blast-rivals-season-2-2025-winner | Will FURIA win the 2025 Blast Premier Rivals Season 2 Tournament? | 79,121,871 | 79,121,871 |
0bb59e550bc83f7358952190b19dd6f3d09728e2 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xa11a9c66032cbe8c607bf1b21591f65dfee9d5eb65d73cc8ad5009c1f9826fa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?
Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | 65,663,867 | 65,663,867 |
9fbc6a8c9469ab2f7de1300248fbff3cdf6c914c | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xab19e050c070553c6084923c67fee2a6550575be4217772c3b3cf25248b4296e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20
Predict the user's choice and confi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | 65,663,867 | 65,663,867 |
30879f35d287d4d9727f549febe4acb964a6ff31 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x34e7851258699d34389c998eb0ac053080c0d6fed119ceaa61c4b72c55318a67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | 66,174,815 | 66,174,815 |
8c7ea03c8ebaaa0360e5669c173f39d849403651 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xcebed92d00e70d9283100b73927b74ea46a4a0161959e104e80fb0acbec3876c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? | 66,174,815 | 66,174,815 |
36aae20945a3177ad1e239bf574a464a0c5a8e54 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x64a87c7559aef832f6630af3e501919fb47a5d0107dbb1eb2236f71f910e5bdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,964,198 | 66,964,198 |
190990949b9c948e99faefd207ad41de16bd7e71 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x64123306a517e078fa636231a9cc9339a46bcfe3fadf62c92fdb031881c5d0d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,960,902 | 67,960,902 |
9fbb6430546a4bad94420a7699b9b20263cc8826 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xbd65462cb5c812c11bbd6904e802746e5228e52cb2a61bad088656fbc64ba50a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-january-2025 | Will ECB make no change in interest rates in January 2025? | 67,960,902 | 67,960,902 |
370f59bfd778604ea10653fefc3f35f209c6e80a | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xf48f79d8e60ab1efa76e53bec8c005611bfdc097cc0e51dc2f612709c04f5acf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,960,902 | 67,960,902 |
17b7a0cfd1dfa16178ad8bafc2bfc6f9ed146c01 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x445d1599c6a870b958b0fbe58a545ef67042293020d00bf734444f6026a8dfaf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-feb-28 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $420b on February 28? | 68,925,446 | 68,925,446 |
2046e91630d1affb0eeaf55ecf2e5655883fc248 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x5064a8cfd932645856d5e574db5fce8a06615ef12af961852a80d340afd92542 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-original-screenplay | Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,925,446 | 68,925,446 |
99d4d7c0dcdfddd9be3746bb86d9b1c75b25f30d | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xffdd774123c13df21ce755bfd4f65bde47a74f1377ea73c8b130d84c59831173 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-june | No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | 75,598,797 | 75,598,797 |
d37f0dd6e2a89caf89ca646bdcb8f4f64f76f16d | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x260d74eb0af8811ad2a608673f339157ff02fdb6cac38c5111a9fda702f94b99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | ucl-kar-fer-2025-08-27 | Will Ferencvaros win on 2025-08-27? | 75,799,615 | 75,799,615 |
626d626d3d934bd5c8de29d02030bcc5098af13d | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x4537098fac6e63ca93b738f3b8af3f0e7f593286b3b4feebdfa59fb831634a61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | ucl-bru-ran-2025-08-27 | Will Club Brugge win on 2025-08-27? | 75,799,615 | 75,799,615 |
63f43d20d34b86b0cd2792f0002110356d1a4fd8 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x740b193af59adf3fcb1c163871ad96f103a306521f560b976683c99dc3931d48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-fen-2025-08-27 | Will Benfica win on 2025-08-27? | 75,799,615 | 75,799,615 |
f4820410ee9c06bae6c3b9e8cb47a1d409f28339 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xad9049484e451b17add24dca5766882fea3f1111650466bc9bfc0afeebb99863 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ful-2025-08-30 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-30? | 75,959,494 | 75,959,494 |
c4690941cd14b1934e2b94aa7775524a18211401 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xadcc5644bee63899d11fcbd5978b7d0c9554e779cd39780a33af4413aacfd0ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | sea-lec-mil-2025-08-29 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-08-29? | 75,959,494 | 75,959,494 |
d3aefb247db93c2b1e2631bf343eb979ca54bb35 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xf05a2f8d1e3d15bf55e8adafb28a0da50c933bbdbfb21a992daf865b5f310ae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | lal-val-get-2025-08-29 | Will Valencia win on 2025-08-29? | 75,959,494 | 75,959,494 |
51184e29628199cb2c1c9a9d76ad3b89a6cb7e22 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x00a7cb9092ac458b5be2bc47c5ecf506a7e6e024cb76aa83581aa0d1beefe674 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | bun-lei-koe-2025-09-20 | Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-20? | 76,836,542 | 76,836,542 |
110ad3a07b1f60b1b20826343f8c598a5f181847 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x7bdfa2d7ae3b82c5e4a06827cb4903c2d2eeeb0fc9a0c433db26e3ea79791c6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | bun-stu-pau-2025-09-19 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19? | 76,836,542 | 76,836,542 |
f9d4689a421752b004acd99bebd0fa8e0e0ed83e | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x88156a51fb5f063c1130ebefb5de4e95d3338d75c0f0757c578e547aaf21cc5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | bun-dor-wol-2025-09-21 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-09-21? | 76,836,542 | 76,836,542 |
4f495a511bf71320c6f49055680fed9ecac2f13f | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x8fab7c2001cbfde26c93a5d5842b670bfca12556a7e3f1f78d1f3ef61837bff0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-osa-2025-09-20 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-20? | 76,836,542 | 76,836,542 |
1d563fe6ef742fcb9bf49765c9fa9a5cbaaf0d87 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xa96ca4ad5c70f3b0ec8a6fc56d0e359b7dd39beafe970a26a04bb091ad5621bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-esp-2025-09-20 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-20? | 76,836,542 | 76,836,542 |
61fc3945757ec9d7419571e1257358058251dfd0 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xbefc4789222823968516a68fc264c6d77df1297bfe88fa75533a5a80ee79e3d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | sea-int-sas-2025-09-21 | Will Inter win on 2025-09-21? | 76,836,542 | 76,836,542 |
dcdb440c75b79fccb8c625d47707602a66ebc34f | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x3cdaac98e672eb86b4cb3dd806b2308acb7207e907b4ccfbe580ca22c9e4e186 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | 77,125,535 | 77,125,535 |
e837a845c012fa973043f2b66766440d2de0c3ff | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x4c58332c69d0b6128975e4ced196ba0fad694e2f9c8ee8cedbfbede62712552f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | lib-pal-riv-2025-09-24 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-09-24? | 77,125,535 | 77,125,535 |
cc14a1a05ee83c5eba34ae433736c8bacddb51ce | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x68bea4ddcd459f0ae93cca6667011f98ea9c532ff3d8977300ef4315826e0e23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | 77,413,597 | 77,413,597 |
b8cfbd7afcd49cec7ba4a6594509d280c43af6fd | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xf23cfb56d69b665c9ea431be9d5e4661d511f0fe5b858966673e1cb2282612b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | 77,413,597 | 77,413,597 |
fe75f8e3c2a7675cc94c43dd5d47a15d2b1780c8 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x21a802a328b74409ef3002d362a2bc236630d82e68024b1096261755bc94ce6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | fif-pol-nzl-2025-10-09 | Will Poland win on 2025-10-09? | 77,491,192 | 77,491,192 |
087fbb87f4b6f4caf300ba68ab1f2b5622228c4d | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0x3fbdd639a7e47c1671603f84b1bb1581f8045261c8ccc251a663f8459e5ad88a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | fif-eng-wal-2025-10-09 | Will England win on 2025-10-09? | 77,491,192 | 77,491,192 |
bf92326b56bc8695c4a3226fd0b56ad14716fe68 | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xd6f9e65b4be60fefd91d157671f9564ce40d3d632b44b8c8d6b2ddb2d24181ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | uef-cze-hrv-2025-10-09 | Will Czechia vs. Croatia end in a draw? | 77,491,192 | 77,491,192 |
c17564826513393b2efc7a3ecc0a539219dc46ee | 0x1a07f2a3f8236aa2e4b83c05e65fae2bc0aa9458 | 0xf630055345bcc423ab1ca259649410d2bdef49849ef133b95d2ec5878c7bf502 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Dec 13-20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | uef-fin-lit-2025-10-09 | Will Finland win on 2025-10-09? | 77,491,192 | 77,491,192 |
1e1e65f326ae0132892ad06a3f246c9e1063070a | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x6a179e313f047d60b33a933a42666c2a13bf760af0bee73239e870757a715ed7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2?
Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | helene-landfall-at-what-category | Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | 62,331,575 | 62,331,575 |
da84a72b736c08b596926763f61d08a9b0679b67 | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0xb1508757e819972aaa0f19be84963fe97f85749e0122351a881efbccfec2c15d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election?
Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the targ... | yes | 1 | tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | 62,775,771 | 62,775,771 |
75aaf1d8658f40a09977b6caf0c1445d72870e0f | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x709006d1b05859c5629845b3ec3f64e3496cd0af24b28c464e16b69da844414b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Mi... | no | 1 | milton-landfall-at-what-category | Will Milton make landfall as a category 4? | 62,852,938 | 62,852,938 |
36af1b7bb4a2ed16ad51b38c168f2e24007e86e0 | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0xe92fb17880e1bc7ff13f25f5bfef59aca43691f5800fda43b4cec5e982fcc814 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | no | 1 | milton-landfall-at-what-category | Will Milton make landfall as a category 5? | 62,852,940 | 62,852,940 |
8fb6d29b565396cd0528b3a00517c41bd5827ff8 | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x9b02d64879d44fa91b0026d431c131f6ea8798e1cf94e2421e7402975abd0777 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | yes | 1 | number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 63,260,626 | 63,260,626 |
42ed056e76de12d1f66d98b228cbb90f6f4314ac | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0xdc38b041dac04feb5136d909c1b5e4912f538e851cd14eac48d2af5f95a07e6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | yes | 1 | number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 63,260,626 | 63,260,626 |
3edd230b041504fdb9d25135dd730919d6912a97 | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | no | 0.999988 | how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 | Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 63,803,045 | 63,803,045 |
d091392110a90e603f677ce8c8a16efb0b7dc273 | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x79c1d9893aee3128640da5691ae0abc28f35b04f40c81fde01725b547a1ac96b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | no | 1 | what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Will the AP call the election on November 5? | 63,949,686 | 63,949,686 |
cd9598e647558146d40525ddd7d66a476bceaa50 | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x0a573d0d2e1f013707b2b6b5429b35db371fdb31f67909ed719abb381b1de6e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | yes | 1 | new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? | 63,956,686 | 63,956,686 |
12dad865d439943a665453ddff8148248d8900b5 | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0xff7cd573927f01a491608361461bed7cfe60b86278ba4cc3c7b19eebde2a8c9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | yes | 1 | south-carolina-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win South Carolina Presidential Election? | 63,956,686 | 63,956,686 |
2b052c2aba973592461536ced443f78bc7ff72ca | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0xfa5a7ff654fb16fbbba2891bb08888d7b876581fed0e09c108919a8ec9732f18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election? | 63,957,633 | 63,957,633 |
240543b44c8d6022c16d5856705b23261d7daa33 | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x1d372482a1170a5591237fb8881b1cfe25a1caf69adf58035d406530eb39556d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | yes | 1 | hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | 63,970,746 | 63,970,746 |
726bb90025950ddd69ed1142bb6957cfa086e72b | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x2dcaf14b767e1b22b18d46a91633435f8e724a7e8b75cfa51280b499e4f1cdcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | yes | 1 | oregon-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Oregon Presidential Election? | 63,970,746 | 63,970,746 |
4d203a3df9aaed50bb975b36d46de2bee144f758 | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x846be8b2fc96f1033d715aeedcbcb7459945abef9b87599a9e02c27ee1c66b7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | yes | 1 | colorado-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Colorado Presidential Election? | 63,970,746 | 63,970,746 |
12b04cffd6b9f4f075c17220cc4f4d3f607c14be | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0xf42996a13927c17242e49563bde5741ac60571966b39caff5c81d24e18524ac0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | no | 1 | what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | AP doesn't call the election by November 20? | 63,970,746 | 63,970,746 |
42eb6e52948ef7b9293e4639bb2cf76096a871eb | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x136e99098f7d4087b4c5775d9f9a512de67e50bda37e88fa86b05a226c390182 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presidency? | 63,986,216 | 63,986,216 |
606759ff0ba3d092def92ac0f5ccadb9179c814e | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x7606802127355512c8f8ff9c70ef27a2717a8554374d84452de4c7d28147338d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | yes | 1 | georgia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | 63,986,216 | 63,986,216 |
db8ed3719a409cfea52260ee23c85dbefa349d07 | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0xe4a9b98237a29e778ac5717e3d29220bb2f0c0370e8e3436d4a277853556355f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? | 64,024,835 | 64,024,835 |
062d3c733e4c8daf15423b288fa030fdb1097e0b | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x6231a19e509cec71b551bcf2a94692fbab48d7458d247752070abf1279ea2797 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | no | 1 | will-biden-resign-in-november | Will Biden resign in November? | 64,948,443 | 64,948,443 |
555053cd8f64e3d3cd82dc5644f65922015030d8 | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0xb89013825a38d14f0a5b7edf6b8e5c5573e6d037e6801c4a8c1143461fc67476 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | no | 1 | israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-before-december | Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December? | 64,948,443 | 64,948,443 |
8d95c29e2e65696b920daa5872e7d29f63a4fd88 | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | yes | 1 | how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 | Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 64,958,785 | 64,958,785 |
076ff4b3349f16acacec952604f2d89f7eba64db | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0xdb3d97ada2399f53dc90e126509e781e4722c0e2ae10cc9f83eeb6eb7cc5ce41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | yes | 1 | moana-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 60-69? | 65,002,790 | 65,002,790 |
13264220468d8e3bc4e6581510ff8448b2c840fb | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x94f5f51c163ab8260561ff80992efdfe91168d0421cddb8963157e5ebe1d87be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | no | 1 | moana-2-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Moana 2' gross less than $135m on 5-day opening weekend? | 65,025,089 | 65,025,089 |
bcdb1c5f850ece012a5f13303b0b4e54cd203ffd | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x2c4374db738725db50cb00049f4dd4e2aac99a4443da8acab341dbbe588ca588 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | yes | 1 | top-spotify-artist-2024 | Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2024? | 65,080,987 | 65,080,987 |
41032a8c000880dc36a97f7d0163ff37bc0541f5 | 0x1a0dad3503d93da81fe02e6812a8c9d9d21738a1 | 0x05786e6d52d97ec9634b465588b94966b64636968789517d475ab27be4367d84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Helene make landfall at category 2? | Event: helene-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kais Saied win the Tunisia presidential election? | Event: tunisia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make lan... | no | 1 | time-2024-person-of-the-year | Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | 65,400,084 | 65,400,084 |
0608a0a342824f5641b5cba75a9761ddea967d98 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xdefc4d9a0ed355b11d7cbff79ab9f5d70de6e7a371a3fd8daf0b433ac7b6a995 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker
Event: ufc-305
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | gamrot | 0 | ufc-305 | Gamrot vs. Hooker | 60,725,255 | 60,725,255 |
0828a5ac2892ad506fa66bffd7496b7782ca21d2 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xfb4bc73159adf9ef5adcb30c0898c9210262f7650b5ca8c0e1458d7ced76c5bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3?
Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence... | no | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | 60,892,311 | 60,892,311 |
478c97da56f32f5a15dba33ce1e5528f2454886b | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xcd99829a94eadf8e2951c078a96024ee9cb977f50a46376df11a49b9ea07f178 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge?
Even... | no | 1 | speedkai-minecraft-deaths-by-end-of-challenge | Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | 60,902,573 | 60,902,573 |
a37e41328c84247b82999b308e7f15346acb5413 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x4613844d9d74779bfc714a9d8b6e03a81b8a54d2a45adc0bdb4b34f49427050d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Ceasefire" during DNC speech? | 60,925,459 | 60,930,225 |
088cc2eddf842706eeb5c3afa6febdc1fe1befa4 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x97c65fcdbddb0d639a81d119431f55a8275d52323e7175f901dd14855c0d7aab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-23 | Will Kamala lead by by 2+ August 23? | 60,955,030 | 60,955,030 |
19e8faf12cca6873314276a261364e7077262486 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x29828afe5aedfba79a31fffe0add6b1d32fba1566e58ab469b2f35752effb3f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Will Trump say "beach" at his Arizona speech? | 60,960,500 | 60,968,723 |
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