sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
861812d0e18d69a695e15c38bed931ee110d34a4 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x66893814f29da724654939cfa15bd4dfe9b6b47fa26b1cf6fa6269647e9e6d70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-28-mar-7 | Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 28 - March 7? | 68,928,442 | 68,928,442 |
300a238a5a26b2e070dc0494e47079968ed1e473 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0xc6d91cfb946e7314f8497c77f01a62f4f67016f7cd553e02a172f17ef91f2a48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | yes | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-march-2025 | 25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting? | 68,928,442 | 68,928,442 |
9ed89a6780cf4bd8b40f726196fd7623bc2db6a6 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x22365542802d2cd69be3de67a9a647b3ad313a7e9cbcf8d748f7aa8fdb3fd33c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-march | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | 69,894,442 | 69,894,442 |
30c87ff84e62db948397f70da4947bf3fd95a33a | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x5a3256b297a8c157bc93a6d812fcb1749b3964f77e95435424b8ccf67955afc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or higher on March 13? | 69,894,442 | 69,894,442 |
00df65f27d64556d2f737694470959286ff3546d | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x9f42d74215e67bd4f6dfecd8d3661107ba7280fc6432410f5378ef53049d921b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-13 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 13? | 69,894,442 | 69,894,442 |
3c5b6766ab760a81c0ff0293c687f25c8dee9f2e | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x00595863287c7c30148d0714255073d0ae0cf338f5287195b720b4ad1c5cbab7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election | Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | 70,987,693 | 70,987,693 |
610ce32a6b8449d0fe7cec1a5414a444687b41eb | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0x855c695d7c794b736655f9d18c48856d82464f956c37df7938f4c65c3d246475 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | 73,547,853 | 73,547,853 |
f7badae03396366120c88314889b40a2e821e8b5 | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0xf82b7bd3711244cfe1c1dbe9861a42b4271df5532be879d5d768c9472949967e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict J... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | 73,549,524 | 73,557,937 |
9f8bda6a496b7082dd84f00edd6eae95fea48ef1 | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0x42e180340bfa53022487bf62d64d8507bded14ad450c37eb78e3d44c223c3aa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | 73,557,929 | 73,557,929 |
7e84d60849e76d29d831348ab624c672f7b0607e | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0x548875d8b6a9f0aa36e402d0f4fbfdff1f6e832b16c0af792e355f77029ef50c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | up | 0.587428 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | 73,561,288 | 73,561,288 |
bf6e6c6891265496463d6e5e1b18824129404980 | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0x61e409393cae0a6a8aa3f56e27fa838e16ad4079ccfac0e001c3b3c5528d9d27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0.000004 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 7AM ET | 73,566,454 | 73,566,454 |
d7113fca8ffb5a0b88ca82c659d86242d5eb6c23 | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0xe1c51e8a2a30531068461c12408d47c0531d5b8ac254979f05d0054c451691c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0.000005 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | 73,568,016 | 73,568,016 |
7a1117a437d90a105a094348f05c8ff64591135d | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0x72d18fa21f8826b974da6563e8830df309c9d5451ac6a129edfa3adab1dad770 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 9AM ET | 73,569,505 | 73,569,505 |
b1861ba153c0d8e751f89a829cb69e315ddeb6a2 | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0xdc7f9bc3744710e8fa3842fc67afd8ec9a5c2e3f67ffb8cbad5e73c6090c5750 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | up | 0.000013 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-11-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5AM ET | 73,831,771 | 73,832,076 |
15317cd8a8edc7a0a84c7e5ce86586b59e0c896d | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0x7d0e94a3305bfd4444cd8a188750f19e850c7c6dc0991cccd4ea832f2e6a007a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-11-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6AM ET | 73,833,520 | 73,837,939 |
a42ef24dc8c4c6207b04c7527cc074d0833f85f2 | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0x452d8fc5fe6d0041a6f5b6fce731398e96fd0a3f61f779997cbb3b2887de2078 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-11-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 7AM ET | 73,834,410 | 73,837,939 |
ea01daaca22ac2641b5b5158a68692cb2ece5555 | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0x663fa9788d98b87435432b9203a5e853341fc7550d1d45c478a7287bbf2ff156 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | up | 0.000005 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-11-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8AM ET | 73,835,996 | 73,836,791 |
69ef439c136f5a5ab08241e2d36214ee974a4682 | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0x55054613ab72e113eb716b21426f3affd949f176bfcaedcb7bb14167f61c878d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-11-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9AM ET | 73,836,910 | 73,861,714 |
e8cba8d4d3891f8b14cb7eb6834549b156935f8e | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0xd09cf7d75b9419c73a04a076a91939e459ef02a0831a22241eb0fb260336c200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-19-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 19, 2AM ET | 75,386,533 | 75,470,890 |
eb606d8676f94de18051c56774342bd76ecdd6a7 | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0xd6af7862a7bc9881fed1c60799c335910efdcf994014d6f543817e9227022b45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-19-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 12PM ET | 75,405,793 | 75,405,793 |
9d1d6a6167b8ac662f4fa58c289b72b8f377e37d | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0x3493d346615274e87abd6a0108b9729e4405024e9a9a85dc26046a4bc41c2ab3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-19-12pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 19, 12PM ET | 75,405,825 | 75,414,658 |
7626756631ce6271409d6cc6468898b4ef43a4f3 | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0x3f72c6c207f1dcff702549438013ec302ec8e9a93e7adbebf3b548cebadad30f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-20-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1AM ET | 75,427,869 | 75,427,869 |
1e478515425a0497fdd3a54b4e5b90d4e6870c61 | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0x9223b267e95780849d8a4085c89baef60f2f10bf83abeee8b23b33d1e5b975e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-20-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 8AM ET | 75,440,007 | 75,440,902 |
ef5739e1b36f495de80c430ac1ca0fe61e6cb7a7 | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0xe0957cbeb232f37c98e3373745c7e0ab1f8f439acb247747195b487291a7154f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6PM ET | 75,536,737 | 75,539,376 |
9ebf0c774591b71358f24e43017f7c69037486ae | 0x196975df44758121f3f395c6af9d97018750543a | 0x127c15c02f13cc43c57754d9c40babc2f93233eb6a0bd7a08d34835148991d41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 8AM ET | 75,559,767 | 75,564,615 |
7de141336b3c56a6eb2ed8240ff5b0914c471bd5 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x777046f79b63687b1d027eedc430e5174f1a814fb9d70d8cbc14c2d07006c0b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Rams vs. Seahawks
Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | rams | 0 | nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Rams vs. Seahawks | 63,857,122 | 63,860,375 |
adb817d26c1b312816a22252075760d495cf2232 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x9c23593b309f27a4e05f059032d59c2a37f8bb10d126ac7e22014593a07fa9a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?
Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: ... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | 64,349,248 | 64,349,248 |
d01fcb875b0eeabcc39c33c4a94b9106c93b9893 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xb4961db4b70b4ebeebce6dee9816eda7a18443ae2d25240a70a0614a01f44ed2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match a... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | 64,349,248 | 64,349,248 |
f597982aee61af8d927964ebca8836852117ece8 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x9c66114d2dfe2139325cc7a408a5cd5d2e73b55d919e2141b3a0ed83fc15895d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | will-bitcoin-hit-100k-in-2024 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | 65,101,742 | 65,101,742 |
a94e025210c28c64ed344248131f7db2c19cf57f | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x6b8a66b95e7bc212ff6033bd8a38b1611dfa791d149d80656e880f4a84d596a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December? | 65,803,045 | 65,803,045 |
82dfc12008bbe0ada143d1af229cb6cfa46f6390 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xc3af3780145b55e1c2357cb208565f2ab2986db46184929978b79d7536bbe6ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? | 65,803,045 | 65,803,045 |
32c72bffb4b26216212d7090d0fe59c3f1b843b4 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xcebed92d00e70d9283100b73927b74ea46a4a0161959e104e80fb0acbec3876c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? | 66,187,284 | 66,187,284 |
a6ac32791dd8013a3c15818174a734c7df4928ea | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x0baf3814110ca0fadb695964d1b876d5a45e273bc64fb31818f69cc8cb1f342b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | trump-fdv-at-noon-on-inauguration-day | Will $Trump FDV be $15b or more on inauguration day? | 66,951,593 | 66,951,593 |
13d6f62109d6377bc1be977a93d3e9f92885a9a5 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xca87614987f3acbbeaf08c339ff9923c694b98bb3bdcb5e94c3ff382880add3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | no | 1 | trump-fdv-at-noon-on-inauguration-day | Will $Trump FDV be $10-15b on inauguration day? | 66,951,593 | 66,951,593 |
051c529f1f5c7e59c6dc0000c8cc00b748b7cd1a | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x4e0f29885709d63bfcff29e80f4a8df1da9e97906ba9e21577b46a70858d8e06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | 67,711,245 | 67,711,245 |
8bc8b9b739279d6b6e4b86350c7aed54c4875e1c | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xfad3e66ce8119a263d7d101202e2ccf7a79d26b48b3b7cf623d3a413a70d9e7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-february-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on Feb 28? | 68,565,925 | 68,565,925 |
911d7a8bc5cfb2fbda834c90a94ef835674b1cdb | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x845afc0daac64d1d5d955e39b3c4763c271b90c13d84593479b9fbe7b794030b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 7? | 68,830,098 | 68,830,098 |
64303a3edf5bacd791d95b36490e920ee998bc32 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x049fe4a89dfe6c9c4d56a1e03ae9046b82bab31eeabdcb05d955930646171806 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Apr 18? | 70,643,525 | 70,643,525 |
60ba83181673e12c123570a0fe11f736bc1d29b0 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x0be2d653603cdc486162f6361b62896cee0ec6820386dca6c6ac47f91d787c5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | who-will-jake-paul-fight-next | Will Jake Paul fight Conor McGregor next? | 70,643,525 | 70,643,525 |
fee1567cc9bb421534b7672aa27b572adb9b4015 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x8d06fb35a075c8272aac53df0f375d255d9b80acfd5130f0678e6d31a1a0d5c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? | 70,643,525 | 70,643,525 |
c69619d5e4cfa558f24f63f39820fa39201e3baf | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xcb9e5ec14c4aed81d563d4d378160ccdad8c003d812b128fcfdf903ef69f6a68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 18? | 70,643,525 | 70,643,525 |
aae6efa1b4092f2f34336043c328038ef0417f1a | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xd486db3c1c51241567dda0326c44fe6208cd82aae6cdaf082cba6fa59764903b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 18? | 70,643,525 | 70,643,525 |
cbbaa41392a601335ad00b3bca1d15b2238be0a6 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x80c16e00125aeb20bac3f181d5042e1c4fccbf63284708e7b9701688cddc60e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-mun-2025-05-04 | Will Brentford win on 2025-05-04? | 71,115,835 | 71,115,835 |
8032617a9935af4b3f4ebcf6bee5a188c2b6ebab | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xcab096de57068747df380cd07b4d8670eceaa9c616b7ed2a38b58af41d7f62d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-tot-2025-05-04 | Will West Ham win on 2025-05-04? | 71,115,835 | 71,115,835 |
620f589dea0faa5827be7d718e9c5c42cb9772df | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xef1ba8f98f4355a6458d8852fe784af7bb5bd0c533f765333756aa96dc48e7e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-new-2025-05-04 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-05-04? | 71,115,835 | 71,115,835 |
827a59455380eb6102fc93c40bc93974e1359e5f | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x485d4cf622a381fd12c9701f751ae689bf4d2c55967021b044b94611c60d7fe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | epl-che-liv-2025-05-04 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-04? | 71,119,475 | 71,119,475 |
25be08e8f1b0d75fc11c102a2b4b417b9125da59 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xc5821602b440e61665dce5dcdc0fd20153864ba185d26a13e9be80fe98bb9e97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | 71,240,823 | 71,240,823 |
ddce727c7b56443b666d416f07a61b455228e38a | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x11b1e7f4f1bc51c4cc81e991676b5242d0f09bb877d84f529e0777576d077b0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-9 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $97000 and $99000 on May 9? | 71,323,908 | 71,323,908 |
269d9820eb75af0147d54230494de467303de16a | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x3711d54a1c9b33af2e4a840ece296aafa11c0008d16dfb96e67b22874c7ffff5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-eve-2025-05-10 | Will Fulham win on 2025-05-10? | 71,363,501 | 71,363,501 |
0a4c547b26e1099b608759a299d4821b808528d2 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x81612c693056dc661a422851250725ca78206a086b69d5974cdac1705cd62b62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-bre-2025-05-10 | Will Brentford win on 2025-05-10? | 71,363,501 | 71,363,501 |
33d7fdca3a02b40df0d3d3ea84dff3193290fae3 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xa12589614020570265e6842001b47338a5fd37f8f3e3960e5f433c7eb263ebbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-mac-2025-05-10 | Will Southampton vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 71,363,501 | 71,363,501 |
1105cf81a67c61003fc926e243d18f46483c6a11 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xcf2640fab01dae462b707e8f7b5460e2129d4b7ab566c30c252f16725cfe10aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-bri-2025-05-10 | Will Brighton win on 2025-05-10? | 71,363,501 | 71,363,501 |
08cfe1fac09a27165ae164cf48a2c708f65f670a | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x1c3b536803c69bc10126f2381bc0944f29b7e3b38014bbd134365fc60df32528 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-liv-2025-05-19 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-19? | 71,731,998 | 71,731,998 |
89879e70ab5a000b1fa74eb005eeb032f1be9dbc | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xcf8d238e2efa509e897691d7177def456afd6efb89ee55415ba3b7c249b3a172 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-20-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on May 20 at 5 PM ET? | 71,773,255 | 71,773,255 |
9c1066b870f19dba20fc201ebc81a59ee9fd73eb | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xe9d5159ff8a83796519c2f3d5d0434d8d827062cfb8e6908a995fe628bb99838 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-bou-2025-05-20 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-05-20? | 71,773,255 | 71,773,255 |
06f0f5a9c3c7b9c847f16c588a113b7000421c72 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0xd065c6382e5514a9085ccbe033c41a7546d64e25e4e5f15ce1f09e7fe29c38bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-la-sea-2024-11-03 | Choice: rams | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake P... | thunder | 0 | nba-min-okc-2025-05-20 | Timberwolves vs. Thunder | 71,774,394 | 71,805,439 |
8f11ac7526ed7a92c205b3f841f56b9eea85ffa8 | 0x1971320213718bae9c60db20bfdecff87e42c2c4 | 0x527c0b0cc9678783ee3a028d6bc4132adf2a90b810a817d38ff1204dffa473fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 0.124017 | bitcoin-price-on-may-23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on May 23? | 71,774,394 | 71,933,037 |
9b5b734bf779f24cb66d09540f9b0c181eeb96e3 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x6cc501fa617e3a46ececf6e3990fe1afeeaa6bc897d3c7049c005fd1bdc42c2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | 61,990,122 | 61,990,122 |
70cfd1c1da7e8a90803a0448429c90427cacddf3 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x590d0bf35aa2fd267a3c2f83e0ea896bb0aa906e1a83ff812a2fab4f68541e17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30?
Event: largest-company-on-september-30
Predict the user's choic... | yes | 0.197249 | largest-company-on-september-30 | Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | 62,599,174 | 62,599,174 |
c03e413ffe5440d35ad0662bd903d5ec1b7802eb | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xffcd19ed3646113e167c57178a6af1f4144b31a741d91f7282645e216afbceee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | yes | 0.349414 | largest-company-on-september-30 | Will MSFT be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | 62,599,186 | 62,599,186 |
78221664385dd0046a850e5a9f3a7e4764b2e10f | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x3152fcc7da5c33d1c3ad137387a7123b17d4809b63c3922b766e0fc4be917b8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | yes | 1 | largest-company-on-september-30 | Will NVDA be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | 62,599,198 | 62,599,198 |
b35c3b1bcae52083602f9c8d27ffcd38a0075415 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xb49048083ea92ebf7a9a798f553ccde94ca107acd996dc5dfabc6cc9921055e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 0 | how-many-jobs-added-in-september | US adds between 200k and 250k jobs in September? | 63,157,387 | 63,157,387 |
eb9cf5774d83a213b7aa3b34d28162235e214da5 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x0c94288b8c9d90c9bb9ed41b3ec52246287c6a69bdb4ea203b9136b4a5179461 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | yes | 0.210808 | how-many-jobs-added-in-september | US adds between 150k and 200k jobs in September? | 63,157,391 | 63,157,391 |
6a79d5bb1b3aaeae23c9a8684fc6f7d5f09d34d7 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x8b90faac71a04484affc550e8dbea7932646d7f90b4a4de7f1d7f676b9670bbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | yes | 0.999779 | how-many-jobs-added-in-september | US adds between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | 63,157,416 | 63,157,416 |
1aca0f8866f20f711ce5014096fcae929a7a71b9 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x53ebb991b4811704723ecf16c29acd4be97368b2e707685e961421dc27b5826c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | yes | 1 | will-russia-capture-pokrovsk-before-november | Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November? | 64,491,239 | 64,491,239 |
1879d7852bb27abc827be8e8346c5d26f15a30c8 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xf1bc899c0b76482a9612746e6934cd26bb3f7d0cebb031507784510998641200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | yes | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-january-2025 | Will ECB lower interest rates by 25bps in January 2025? | 67,343,106 | 67,343,106 |
91b20a5122f19b1e462acf747e5214cb87122e71 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xde3d35dac384fba89a8ed3a8b9dce05d2b9ad8374e1636ea28848d618ed95191 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 11? | 77,555,111 | 77,555,111 |
5142a5d90f3b635158c4b4e06cfdb7c3828eff84 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x25b3dbe878dc19e8d05629c6d1facb497bd000170f66052e97569f7e599577a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 0.534902 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 12? | 77,618,064 | 77,618,064 |
47676fc1a9726325e4ff6426733c233d52f6fc16 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x73628e218984acfe3e40928ede7d8b4f89953b56ae6a88f0c041490a613e5f77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 0.6 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 12? | 77,618,064 | 77,618,064 |
4fcb2037567b5283ba93d3e13c5589f3c9c4d501 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xfb3f36b739c942fc6ed7d271fceb5da28fd276ee6637bbeab5a66e0937d475a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 13? | 77,639,546 | 77,639,546 |
039c5c87c78eefc3db5423b12397cb45aff42e5b | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x5bc9d1fed44e9a34a2999c1e521ad1a0d7a6b39ae795cd6e0794f1f1053c2141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 14? | 77,728,191 | 77,728,191 |
700292f8c8bd15242853c1dc10e6b6b6404f5d6f | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x7e538e5762ab06e7ede3aaa9bae02603f4da7ca0d937448da9865357e58f1334 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | yes | 0.818594 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 14? | 77,728,191 | 77,728,191 |
c9a62232979a32bb7f28f3f610031bada44301e4 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xc682025556cbc89d3432a3123089610e23d324d7b20d76af86c57ed6ebdc21a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 14? | 77,728,191 | 77,728,191 |
c507810384f710c3a95cb2fc0d2c1fcc6dd9f7b8 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xe1308607ffd4e629d548457f50f0629132834948db6d02a249f6850d3dc4d2a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 16? | 77,768,141 | 77,768,141 |
791c963c9b4dc7303674002aaccc4522b91fc280 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xf055282c1d0be07946d4571ebf452c9e391fcb5b1d8861aaec1c1fb8405bd8e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | yes | 0.523355 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 16? | 77,805,140 | 77,805,140 |
ccb70eb14d4a4d842ec4a14421726ecd7399a5cf | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x2938a551f1562d822a7b14abd2ff5a968a2696bfdc40bc0a8e5c88d9bcd3faac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 18? | 77,853,003 | 77,853,003 |
0a3078957e1d938ff1244ea322920fbf0bf5961e | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x90e5f048838c6a8a286c71bf3ade509ef19644c69df64d66904ce88390ce3491 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 18? | 77,853,003 | 77,853,003 |
6bce3e9734b5073e2d34f696eaa2fe679d407960 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xbfe48d1afd9bc1a10b8f3b9511ca65409177b378726654c7980ccf5a6ffc69f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | yes | 0.306233 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on October 17? | 77,853,003 | 77,853,003 |
a915972a817d37db9d79cf24bac9a0ca4dd9a573 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x5c8631dee6fb5f78622bb5f82a7cc2e59f8da772059184c280102c8fe98f4d0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | yes | 0.16503 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 18? | 77,890,658 | 77,890,658 |
ca32ed8315eab720777376747f876a67c1aac555 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x1c64aeffadcbeef457768b3884deca42d003560aedd5437e0af0acc2a62b69f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 19? | 77,918,403 | 77,918,403 |
37a52be0aac0a3df88963c6a210424a929474d63 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x1d841195b367163740532d291ea592189b635944a530b3694cc10c9f9ca3a46e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 19? | 77,924,837 | 77,924,837 |
90721346f2f551109343e1e576a383d87f2d0486 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xed1c37f9762c154859b1096754001c87c866f7daf3316203f46ba641fd6bfc42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | yes | 0.26432 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 20? | 77,924,837 | 77,924,837 |
0cb15d1e144c9bef578b955dd62691e6d515506b | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xaad9b3cc69ed0c273a9d86beaeea5086e3df17b636657b9b81d44c02e8c97524 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 20? | 77,934,709 | 77,934,709 |
78887b76153d34aa331453f63911a9da7c32e106 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xb46b9eba7aee36140395a5af6cb77146127d06d390479c473f19678e1ef8797b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 0.066757 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 20? | 77,970,331 | 77,970,331 |
b61fb0758a81cb51e477397007080ad5fbfd5d87 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x155c0ea40eece806fcf23cb962e74d901ad3272c1c74a80a92948bc3d42c75b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 0.24002 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 21? | 77,976,847 | 77,976,847 |
ea052f0aca20efd5b76af48e2bfdc3772450e830 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x459b8f7a8f77359222ddc6bd8895e03699d0783d49bc2094c9355d37c97703dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 21? | 78,030,145 | 78,030,145 |
23530551f3450a706a70946f3168fdb86359ff34 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x55d0de2e10ebc963f45454cdcbd3682057ad21f127d9b9f1a7026a0a05532d0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 0.5 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 22? | 78,030,145 | 78,030,145 |
56d2418aa886fee906f3cbbbe63b86bde71dee43 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x63300e04d611608850ed675ca823d4978a9a22356fddabb7a676f8445945b99a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.197248... | no | 0.368421 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 22? | 78,030,145 | 78,030,145 |
22845beee9630e95c83aa45bcb7301b72325d740 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xd5ee7bed936d6e232c0e247dc35456df039b8f6b27ae948d8bda0791caf8dea0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.19724897138484365
2. Question: Will MSFT be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3494... | yes | 0.318182 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 21? | 78,030,145 | 78,030,145 |
d2031c4abe8965e7cd4a55c32d22228ff4e691d2 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0xfa14a96bc8cf1bed97df670e1d2191754e8a981d2c972173407b55fea2a79037 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MSFT be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3494138483596188
2. Question: Will NVDA be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 22? | 78,030,145 | 78,030,145 |
057de10f88a6fc650866407728e3112db66a8b02 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x034a9b91c6ab79130a8517ce2540b6aa6595735632d00a052f03670eebc43879 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVDA be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US adds between 200k and 250k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US adds betwee... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 23? | 78,054,492 | 78,054,492 |
8be4377661c2ce12f93274728618718edf19945f | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x68bae44ff4066087cb7455eb090d7332114f52436ff11785b1548e546b6a9246 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US adds between 200k and 250k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: US adds between 150k and 200k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2108084495161053
3. Question: US adds... | yes | 0.368193 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 22? | 78,054,492 | 78,054,492 |
2e9bd65a7661c27ef191ad4ebb3ef01a718a2c2c | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x521fe43fed1e66cda7a207dba2ff4d32ca4ebb4f539caf976bd1287e717246d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US adds between 150k and 200k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2108084495161053
2. Question: US adds between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9997786640124938
3. Q... | yes | 0.507538 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 23? | 78,106,378 | 78,106,378 |
6e48fa60ede56536e180d7ef58dd99793909e739 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x87172918eed69fe21ceb73239b5405c6603f1447d768395d419d1eb51d69f68a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US adds between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9997786640124938
2. Question: Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November? | Event: will-russia-capture-pokrovsk-before-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 23? | 78,106,378 | 78,106,378 |
f1eeb91d0dff1cd087322fbe8671b9ca3b5d3c6c | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x3803322cc52b03c32b9a1488663ac5df36eafba0318b4640571d65050ac33f5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November? | Event: will-russia-capture-pokrovsk-before-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ECB lower interest rates by 25bps in January 2025? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will t... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 24? | 78,138,912 | 78,138,912 |
019a8835bf0385984911f18e47a0c5c33565b947 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x4f798e3084e8bb7f2784cef3cea98afb44b1460dd2379bd39bbe640123e34500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ECB lower interest rates by 25bps in January 2025? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-11 | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 24? | 78,138,912 | 78,138,912 |
7e23a98e6d0fbab7ccd491d0a3c75871da5f4f22 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x85080f3282924b25841975a51bbc9d3d548532ef148c02212ca1bbb293b8a01d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-25 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 25? | 78,155,235 | 78,155,235 |
343e94b71f9ea5fe9d27db04b0a55d0cf2c05e7f | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x59fe037a7e5c9d917292f059eb847dbfc797751eb99f91f786d8fa3738115641 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5349024701964882
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon... | yes | 0.218393 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-25 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 25? | 78,192,105 | 78,192,105 |
9bdc53432741e6da6bca114533e9aa33ce13618f | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x111725adde453ad474b336dedde6999948f61ed15ee0f89f38f0c5dee45e4f35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | no | 0.045675 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on October 26? | 78,230,811 | 78,230,811 |
c59e8cb7ce51583600192a5f992298ee2bbdfc62 | 0x198e7791061f8a63e688c0de0108dcec8c98ede0 | 0x13c20d925c37073d59515dc99667a12285b10f5aaeae08ec68656825cfd07a9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | yes | 0.090909 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 26? | 78,230,811 | 78,230,811 |
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