sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
c0dfcaa202735edb96b6b84c294ed848c549d929 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x0a909afe0d1e0fa858f0fad96100ff9aa64c114e15ff7f16d785db242aefe5e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | 2024-little-league-world-series-champion | Will Florida win the 2024 Little League World Series? | 61,044,612 | 61,044,612 |
e71e816b1fc809ff81c1980cd4d9ac9db039ea4e | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x99771b651c4abd9c1a58ee8fe89e978f42f2ed1c794b382272ab7e76f71c1e34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | yes | 1 | 2024-little-league-world-series-champion | Will Chinese Taipei win the 2024 Little League World Series? | 61,044,612 | 61,044,612 |
3e57fcc724176f2425f2c33e7f3e9c9c8f1e8725 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x2320808b594af5024d90d1109dc9489da32518fbde102bef63d78a5e06890034 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | yes | 0.321903 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Will Elon tweet between 140-149 times? | 61,200,794 | 61,210,503 |
66ffe28c226f5389f4780c34b8356a4dab55b77f | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xcb61af28ac15a487a8edcad2398bcfabfb3e6ea233df4d8416758ab6be4c77bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during Michigan town hall? | 61,202,031 | 61,205,993 |
f17f0832c5387889a130c26bf9b3eefb835ca30b | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xee5fdda02b9b52118a350df8b9194a2e04686ece13bac470c2480fd46d05c42a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Will Elon tweet 150 or more times? | 61,210,503 | 61,210,503 |
cc3bfb5160a79758b1430b387be1a6d5810a926d | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xa70e05e422a2e7520d8da618a71c70abc6a6b7e26d9e67c4e8eed8d11ba58273 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the Italian Grand Prix? | 61,314,880 | 61,314,880 |
58e4e32504f394a3b4fde1c9248d37cd38c1211d | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xf426ce74d8a2cf27106bbedfeeb7665a18d05243e9e17dd17c355b9084a3ae49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-france-vs-italy | Will Italy win? | 61,520,549 | 61,520,549 |
bbf7978ad0465fc1ae60fdf8b7d4284470f082bf | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xbfe1f4ddd4769cbabdca18d3bbf2fc4dddfcd90d7d4c34b06fcb25d6e4bbf4ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | august-2024-temperature-increase-c | August temperature increase by less than 1.15°C? | 61,672,273 | 61,672,273 |
cd629d54c4df9391003068fe3072b40c134140b0 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x11695e747474ffc1e00bc13984f72f786c9d5eb4b0184120b6a4bbc9191e37d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | yes | 1 | how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Will the debate have 60-65 million viewers? | 61,719,851 | 61,719,851 |
9d86e12fa12845d37e3fb0afbd33bd177578bea6 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xd898c8e4deb04b8162bf744c8631ce5fc5fb05e56d584bddee1d030ea38c6a35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Will the debate have 65-70 million viewers? | 61,719,851 | 61,719,851 |
d1c9e1f583ba39a29871d1dad5cdd9c375d188f2 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x221633a763d607ac24cb5d16fff0e4f8ccf5b44898c5ffa6414408593447646b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | epl-aston-villa-vs-everton | Will Aston Villa beat Everton? | 61,834,713 | 61,834,713 |
f6b7fe3b0687a7bca3e752fcd97c5cbb6babfe29 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x5b67cd491e2d6535ab0920cbee0602038e291476391f50b39896a27bf54ec6a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | yes | 1 | epl-crystal-palace-vs-leicester-city | Will Leicester City beat Crystal Palace? | 61,834,713 | 61,834,713 |
1dd79c328a3b28c9be3762990763f26dd856684a | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x7b946e5345074b7f341266c4040f855325b09750ed189d9c4ffa0054e95d40d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | epl-fulham-vs-west-ham | Will Fulham vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 61,834,713 | 61,834,713 |
531a5cbac2b17e410c472245ab12987834499d0f | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x86bc3b785769c243592658d0a49ff520b0625bf291cfc0c36717999ccd93435c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | dota-2-the-international-champions | Will Cloud9 win The International 2024? | 61,834,713 | 61,834,713 |
78fc5a42b92a6b8914d67555468fa30f56795ff7 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xb33648da9f84b5a25223feb907ef14e37f0722fdcfa6a29bbae1bea80fe89851 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | yes | 1 | epl-fulham-vs-west-ham | Will Fulham beat West Ham? | 61,834,713 | 61,834,713 |
62578a391d8c1b1f830066055062844fadb35873 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xd5177cf9fe2af672b1d8c91f1cfa70fcd6e0d7c886fff40d1092ff0e31c508bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | epl-bournemouth-vs-chelsea | Will Chelsea beat Bournemouth? | 61,834,713 | 61,834,713 |
ff41068ef48cac8423e21ae31f49c6a2e6e47d79 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xd80d8a471b427fa0d2036edcce51427d075c2e0490fd4f30eba56c9b3b483dc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | epl-crystal-palace-vs-leicester-city | Will Crystal Palace vs. Leicester City end in a draw? | 61,834,713 | 61,834,713 |
9066da453eaf625f82255ab676de370fa005c65a | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x338cfb50128d1b8d2da0527d04e74e6a7ad127c95b7c5e1ca0f694fb38e31f80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 61,876,044 | 61,876,044 |
fa84af03902417638b3139ff3011528442c0cc67 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x7959743a6cdc75590cb7bd829690667f4401cb7113b541a5b30af9a676f07327 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | yes | 1 | epl-wolverhampton-vs-newcastle | Will Wolverhampton beat Newcastle? | 61,876,044 | 61,876,044 |
ad131d2e9872f4782a43b9b35ddc918faf04a19e | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xac830a5b49163741eb5e64d5e0152bbb5fd6c185de92c4252c17cabd0ec6ece2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | epl-wolverhampton-vs-newcastle | Will Newcastle beat Wolverhampton? | 61,876,044 | 61,876,044 |
8bc7fa84b3f0a1889b770bcf95858d52d306fc31 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xed15b5fb7a069e8748bdbbcbcffd00a7cbacb95fd65bcb79c2c745aa883dea6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | ucl-real-madrid-vs-vfb-stuttgart | Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | 61,956,118 | 61,956,118 |
78ee159dd283cbbcab89511acd5dbaf9ddcf3cf8 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xc1729f39851cf9d0b9660a751bd41697bda12775bfbcf684d293cec50c273388 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | yes | 0.111108 | ucl-psg-vs-girona | Will Paris Saint-Germain vs. Girona end in a draw? | 61,990,035 | 61,997,345 |
27e57cc853fe41a3c8f36f30cb1c15f3acaa3c4a | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xa71db3c4a0a632b12241f6cf1aa6be5c8cb7b473dbfed77394a1222a9af8a11b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 0.988067 | who-will-the-teamsters-endorse | Will the Teamsters not endorse a major candidate? | 61,997,331 | 62,004,866 |
7ea9eb000e20435a2bab64537747602f5ff98a92 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x4ad59349cb2b1287b0051e0c62a35280a8e030aea82453f072d80b167d2c52bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | no | 1 | ucl-psg-vs-girona | Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Girona? | 61,997,345 | 61,997,345 |
65e0e1bf429456452b34aab4b8be4428f9cfc16c | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x57b8bbb8ec7e5d9683355f5f9789a095aadd41dea12eca723c696aa53f2d045c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gamrot vs. Hooker | Event: ufc-305 | Choice: gamrot | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai... | yes | 1 | ucl-club-brugge-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Club Brugge vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | 61,997,345 | 61,997,345 |
57ea1bbeed516c25bb69d58a7e3b4d1ffa28d977 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xbfc23fc70afb593c07ec20cf4dd783844902107dd45b8cd6e7700943dfdd6ad7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai-minecraft-deaths-by-end-of-challenge | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | ucl-bologna-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Will Bologna vs. Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? | 61,997,345 | 61,997,345 |
724d0407de589a628fe92d0f7d907dba09323d28 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xf40f6387fe89f4d83f87280a8bf8b58a0288c79e629a48ce8cb2039c71c20f38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Speed/Kai have <50 deaths by end of Minecraft challenge? | Event: speedkai-minecraft-deaths-by-end-of-challenge | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Ceasefire" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | ucl-club-brugge-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Club Brugge? | 61,997,345 | 61,997,345 |
4786410bfd8ff4ea6104a8009b4a3134e6da4bcf | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x729d6207e0e0093ab731cdb1c476bca1739280ba91cdc702b0ae53068ed65198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Ceasefire" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala lead by by 2+ August 23? | Event: trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | who-will-the-teamsters-endorse | Will the Teamsters endorse a Democrat? | 62,012,832 | 62,012,832 |
66ba601b8fb27dfd44483e0ed1eee1c86124a497 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x18470c1a8420e945750e60d6cc36e658438b7fdf34b3e38f4a4b78bf61fc5685 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead by by 2+ August 23? | Event: trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "beach" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Florida win ... | yes | 1 | ucl-atletico-madrid-vs-rb-leipzig | Will the match between Atletico Madrid vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? | 62,037,315 | 62,037,315 |
89c2b68fbc30a7ccb2bd8f5758cd6584a2aab2e2 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x18ad373cd3bb293289c9991c63f761ff3a225696c53f84de6601be99a0809f65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "beach" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Florida win the 2024 Little League World Series? | Event: 2024-little-league-world-series-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | ucl-atletico-madrid-vs-rb-leipzig | Will Atletico Madrid beat RB Leipzig? | 62,037,315 | 62,037,315 |
602ef67933f2eeaa166a7138da9dc40e78d9b197 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x294f173811eb4c32d216dc969154d1b448b16c76f0a4b3b5005def461a6040e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Florida win the 2024 Little League World Series? | Event: 2024-little-league-world-series-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chinese Taipei win the 2024 Little League World Series? | Event: 2024-little-league-world-series-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | ucl-monaco-vs-barcelona | Will the match between Monaco vs. Barcelona end in a draw? | 62,037,315 | 62,037,315 |
40d57dd9391a4513cb526abfae27c7e29d6eb596 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x00e6b12c152a927efafecda385a45f63048bbc514293844deba451e5227bd477 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chinese Taipei win the 2024 Little League World Series? | Event: 2024-little-league-world-series-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 140-149 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.32190297175528476
3. Quest... | no | 1 | epl-southampton-vs-ipswich-town | Will Southampton vs. Ipswich Town end in a draw? | 62,111,629 | 62,111,629 |
a343c3234f3d2aa61262dca272d7006c55b4a5de | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x6585ec2bf693ef28c776f1ca6ffb7305ed39972e075cbfa0900b521bc5216133 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 140-149 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.32190297175528476
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | epl-leicester-city-vs-everton | Will Leicester City vs. Everton end in a draw? | 62,111,629 | 62,111,629 |
ce068d1437b52766656dc72c515b1605fb0dcf3b | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x8eb8f24d79a48415c3f4c8a1fa9d08c6abce6a5e99a6a684e817f4c9a68d6923 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150 or more times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | epl-southampton-vs-ipswich-town | Will Southampton beat Ipswich Town? | 62,111,629 | 62,111,629 |
27222a347f8a7b7e36bf242c5234c3c1aa3b5d2a | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xcfe4ef7e5b42d69c8e82b241854693b3b31924807b8a55d6c590aa8e8b81b839 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 150 or more times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the Italian Grand Prix? | Event: italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: uefa-nations-league... | no | 1 | epl-aston-villa-vs-wolverhampton | Will Aston Villa beat Wolverhampton? | 62,111,629 | 62,111,629 |
730d23f06579afd0a7bee75cf435648d4027b63b | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xe78debc4609eb652e4e4a1d3e2964fa7c98d6bd134c3bd487fad9e679aeb5bdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the Italian Grand Prix? | Event: italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-france-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: August temperature increase by less than 1.15°C? | Event: au... | yes | 1 | epl-leicester-city-vs-everton | Will Everton beat Leicester City? | 62,111,629 | 62,111,629 |
62cb4f38ca5dd11a803b4afbe3bf974eea450f77 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xe7e0a7f320db0775d83952cb0fce1373966a0e36e25b875bb8f74980c6cf1552 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-france-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: August temperature increase by less than 1.15°C? | Event: august-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have 60-65 million viewers? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-aston-villa-vs-wolverhampton | Will Wolverhampton beat Aston Villa? | 62,111,629 | 62,111,629 |
d29ae6580a799bb273daf2d044b37fc33dd0d3c2 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x88a93fcf27305efcb168f7b56e4870acc3271c6b1948009e2704977b3c83063d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: August temperature increase by less than 1.15°C? | Event: august-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the debate have 60-65 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have ... | no | 1 | esl-counterstrike-champion-2024 | Will Natus Vincere win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? | 62,161,151 | 62,161,151 |
2c3a323e53b890078a1b784b7edabeaf9c132440 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x6632fc24e5c917cf5972a36b3a28f25b89759d2624b17badb1cea4bef1bf7f98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the debate have 60-65 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the debate have 65-70 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ev... | yes | 1 | who-wins-most-votes-in-brandenburg-election | Will AfD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election? | 62,177,790 | 62,177,790 |
dce83a3c905448518a1750b7008bb947ac306657 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0xc7fdf2f2f2975b5aad279aab1d6b19e684f9dbeeb7b338e861902a41e8d0d246 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the debate have 65-70 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Everton? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-everton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Leicester City beat Crystal Palace? | Event... | no | 1 | who-wins-most-votes-in-brandenburg-election | Will SPD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election? | 62,177,790 | 62,177,790 |
ccfe0b7b88c184924eaed904bc599e49aec51919 | 0x1a20ee68ba7320a0e410de266661460e33b9101c | 0x8d7029b9b91d2a8939b49bd27dc5f5e618d88c5141628c3c7eaec09b66b1d08b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Everton? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-everton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leicester City beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-leicester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: e... | no | 1 | caroline-ellison-prison-time | Caroline Ellison sentenced to 24-35 months in prison? | 62,246,721 | 62,246,721 |
386f584ba2ae6435ba38a56e85a8bb1ade7d8b26 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0xd4e0501eedba8ec8743ee4be9e4d763089ca15b098f18860c7a0b247e40fb705 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw?
Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | 79,417,609 | 79,417,609 |
b92fb771528b4ae8d4fe321c3dbe9412016f8464 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x8d6c3a61ff35a00ed0acd0ac91e5ca18c5cf743903fb35698ed94a2dbb77149f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23?
Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {... | yes | 1 | sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | 79,428,193 | 79,428,193 |
6ed638c041232154d833e7c42fdf1171408456ae | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0xd52e83b15042499a63d9205b9aab59617b5973e020daf7d9a4385e29d8c07676 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a ... | yes | 1 | lal-elc-rea-2025-11-23 | Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | 79,428,193 | 79,428,193 |
6a0b62e54624e0fb9411e9491499ab472e535d3a | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0xd501efa5a4fe3eb956cea295455f4acd5424229129c97a04fea22f569810cfec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | den-ran-ode-2025-11-24 | Will Randers FC vs. Odense BK end in a draw? | 79,461,326 | 79,461,326 |
87a5461e87e796e7f3b74236631c3a26256f5b9d | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x7436e559718be9ac1daef33e7dd8dcbf41f6d134ebc0f4766933a4f592389385 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | itsb-sam-sta-2025-11-24 | Will UC Sampdoria win on 2025-11-24? | 79,474,117 | 79,474,117 |
362a1a381f995436c320e5a46c854d092f15b381 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x77b90dc848e4ae975e0c51f576a7e97cba1182cef4e7d0c8c1980f374269f0c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | bra-mir-csc-2025-11-24 | Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-11-24? | 79,474,117 | 79,474,117 |
30027323b16c56b163f141dd6783b6167b997c2a | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0xd8ba548856c3b40138c232de5c4a8aec7d0bbb1694949613a2aa614069a11792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-eve-2025-11-24 | Will Everton win on 2025-11-24? | 79,474,117 | 79,474,117 |
e94f9a85eeda34d0ed894992c6777863224a7516 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x0e1a03d94ad11363a85c8d0240e66b760d3fc0e3788c55cb368d5d99124ab1df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | mex-jua-pac-2025-11-23 | Will CF Pachuca win on 2025-11-23? | 79,501,198 | 79,501,198 |
4ef2bac2c50eee3236b48bb23a8e761c90a20475 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x27ae81ac2e2f3af0dce92728fe3548ca183fed3c13b3556128f3ee87c11fdfd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | bra-sao-juv-2025-11-23 | Will EC Juventude win on 2025-11-23? | 79,501,208 | 79,501,208 |
642deb53b6d56df4c88c439efe9018b19d81289b | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x72525f7cc77f3cde488b3766e9397ccce3bdec3c79e8ce1ed94324b34ea26acc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | bra-bah-vas-2025-11-23 | Will EC Bahia vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw? | 79,501,208 | 79,501,208 |
a9be022c2661481c826b2cf19a1fa673ecbcd0d5 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x5a6e8bef0311d1a9ff3f58da587109eccabd6b3485efa52c58506603f11eabd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | mls-phi-nyc-2025-11-23 | Will Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC end in a draw? | 79,501,209 | 79,501,209 |
b082077267b10801f4bba873e466880597137809 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x60aa2715ac57bdf1c2dbc3fd798c204d72964fe785332db510e1915654528eeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | sea-tor-com-2025-11-24 | Will Torino FC win on 2025-11-24? | 79,501,209 | 79,501,209 |
8131d50740177d11fe0abcc7aa7d581ac0df97bd | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x6b4d7e91d3bee162988f89b2c10f207cd979acd041f9100afbbe457326309b77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | mls-sdg-min-2025-11-24 | Will Minnesota United FC win on 2025-11-24? | 79,501,209 | 79,501,209 |
c07eee2eee5311d1838ec54ce7cb529f0e20ce88 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x8b8be8a05472f5c16d5aca5f2ef25eb47d0d29e4300d52c909af62b7e9e2d52c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | bra-bah-vas-2025-11-23 | Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-11-23? | 79,501,209 | 79,501,209 |
9a47d024f67d9e1a910c361628a5934dcd73e547 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x973650a0c27af0cb567f1af1b88ec6165f7938e786053545214d24696fda5569 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Will NEOM SC win on 2025-11-23? | 79,501,209 | 79,501,209 |
2f3dde63d0928ceb91dd1fd776e6bcaa33e63af1 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0xd44c7b77ec94c1232f8eed17a1afb741a64071ab38a8421c32e63304c871f61a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | nor-ffk-vik-2025-11-23 | Will Fredrikstad FK vs. Viking FK end in a draw? | 79,501,209 | 79,501,209 |
beb1ebb330c26ceb201be3a342b719a5d5911755 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0xe7f2fdf2250196ce156a9b756027f232e2079450779ff88b32203ef6fb061bff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | arg-rie-bar-2025-11-24 | Will CA Barracas Central win on 2025-11-24? | 79,501,209 | 79,501,209 |
05e44bcdd816b64dc0ea192ba4fb13b6e9589c38 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x08c082c724f9eee7a5fdea3cb26474c36e6d40eb84fbc11681f54c87ea558ae0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | fl1-lil-pfc-2025-11-23 | Will Lille OSC vs. Paris FC end in a draw? | 79,501,210 | 79,501,210 |
574adb89419590e24aca8b4f1db67b3a2db24079 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x1c563e9095823f390bfeb31918022cfc107de8e2d3f6d9e1a9ca62037c99cd2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | nor-ffk-vik-2025-11-23 | Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2025-11-23? | 79,501,210 | 79,501,210 |
b24dad3e0ab704b4b21def9abfcfea83ebfa8058 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x3340b00428cba64ee2ddd8251be2c3332ac0fe60139970cc71e7d2814f99a81c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | bra-cru-cor1-2025-11-23 | Will Cruzeiro EC vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? | 79,501,210 | 79,501,210 |
0ed19e1bf6463b4239aaaefd86924c6b62485de6 | 0x1a39f57e3c9bdd7398b493af0d187d13e9bb3577 | 0x9287d12288057cb853cef3165f2f9a7683e4666dd67ea02cac8f9c91ba0232a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-taa-neo-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | Event: sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | den-ran-ode-2025-11-24 | Will Randers FC win on 2025-11-24? | 79,501,210 | 79,501,210 |
ae8c2435aba51f4aa34d1dcfd6615b571328304a | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x47e42265c4baeaef03b375a8df1d02502a73d76323b52899950c6306627f14e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET
Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | up | 0.20794 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | 75,594,740 | 75,594,740 |
4043fe54ee728baa58a45ee8b7ff26f31bd8820e | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x97e46dfc6b97d69253034d01c2b45036fc61b1d2dd91dcbb7da9e3491072f83d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the ta... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | 75,594,740 | 75,636,157 |
a65a02d2d211dfd6440cfc992aea64acfb9618f1 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0xbb2623a1e039f418a51bfca28fdf09e4b21b97ceab8c643cc9145f63ac999cbf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Ethe... | down | 0.047327 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 7AM ET | 75,597,126 | 75,597,126 |
c652f571286223fbec9d4a3884a71655c0bdc066 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0xe73d71d38b0bbfefa8f2850e7657371ebd8ddde2e02ce1bea5247525d5e55dc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 0.171177 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 8AM ET | 75,597,126 | 75,599,550 |
4bc79088e55b9dd2ad32cf53e1c4196aad8cec52 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x7ae7a05eca470147fc4d7d7ca37ba4df028e35160da36511d96bde34a23f21a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 8AM ET | 75,597,126 | 75,636,157 |
ccf7f44d87c597d7d8739674f3d19ffe3a47df5e | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0xcb92ff46ed2420a0a924cbb8ebdb1a0a9451c7f077bb4eab9f10fec429461ac3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 7AM ET | 75,597,126 | 75,636,157 |
a973b10067f1b27835e175ec9deebdaed2127251 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x0e273c0dec081f45e34653d8f0a1bd8f7dd15d7ba23fb5d57fee55781d86ad35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 9AM ET | 75,599,550 | 75,636,156 |
2c048688b1b0826ef9e70e988d0fce8f07b61ec8 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0xc35c1dfbfad2da9da3107681c8b482071db8fac819b4fea0b1d58b00e4dc9f6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 9AM ET | 75,599,550 | 75,636,156 |
c4eaeef3e5854e4c1947cf6620de988afe874475 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x7b70bea484453a5b9885c77bbb827405a7ea0fa2ba89699ea3e65a5f70c425ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-14-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 14, 2AM ET | 76,432,354 | 76,432,354 |
fbb99b31574526028bb74abbb345854f1990ce9e | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x1404f073377326848605a9ce98d1bdf4ce496facf7d39d1dcfb176dfb8e658ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-17-10pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 17, 10PM ET | 76,602,984 | 76,602,984 |
bc1f3660d9f4939af803f26b3b5e7204971b1c08 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0xae16b60e11514e9ccd4b582531666bf45e9b3158b816ec0b00874257fbe06709 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-17-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 10PM ET | 76,602,984 | 76,602,984 |
dd3bcc545dfc46ef296a4859af592c7e9ace521a | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x1b04b58f5ed8e67c77e9e6bd96539e2dce49b3594d97998df4ef221e091a6636 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-18-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 8PM ET | 76,647,050 | 76,647,050 |
cfce6107789fbddcc964f64b7e3b9441bed8877c | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x7d4c5ed3b269e97a6ddc57770d7ab37991eef8b167c69c37eb75122a5ffe6801 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-18-8pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 8PM ET | 76,647,050 | 76,647,050 |
afc2401998553c67cc4ad593fb77b9754c1aacf7 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x8fcdba8d312905ca196d57b65a81cd14698dcbab9dbdebd1d3ad218d9e0e0bb2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 0.839107 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-20-9pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 9PM ET | 76,725,865 | 76,725,865 |
13d427ce5fb44fe735dbd91088391581c7a0fce6 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x0aaab7703ce41edc2a7a0f730b1b915e6b6bd402353e60dc23c84c5c1a2d622b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-22-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 5AM ET | 76,767,368 | 76,767,368 |
3a12414f83c439694520f23d5be0a0cc029651fd | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0xd5f23289eddfa0d4f4724a9e23163af1d1c103e7a5cc865c5b8a6e792b5fca7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 0.370434 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-23-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 23, 3AM ET | 76,808,346 | 76,808,346 |
379f69888bdaedb7981729ec563b29dd9c8ef13a | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x548a303d8404cee5c1958f199ea3ed6d6ecd6b8ee791c5c5c2d9db761d7fa579 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-27-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 27, 4AM ET | 76,970,504 | 76,970,504 |
dc59c5ad7c040f9cc0b3d6bf4ce881e6bf657685 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x33d2aeffe4badf6f606eb00229b95c52fb7cef12a762102feff53e4f78ff345e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-1-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 1, 2AM ET | 77,153,175 | 77,153,175 |
2633ced1d16fb4051b567d7a3bd958e2efff9f01 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x10d5888f486d6cca808a87f70f583029f05d448cc30dd3da6a1cbdc7a391d40d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-2-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12PM ET | 77,191,753 | 77,191,753 |
1fd857531121d31b8272404ab2c1d304a4a27738 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0xa8929f41723c91fbfea5393ae045e28176c58f94ba037d80cf097c51447a37ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-2-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 12PM ET | 77,191,755 | 77,191,755 |
bec55b1cfc123dc7c1f45a73803b83931168cf40 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x090d35f5b8b5c7671bc5e84c5291175847d4f198a526a9e679d837dd770aa741 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-3-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 2AM ET | 77,258,578 | 77,258,578 |
588a2babea1ca9d2662c55bf06822a60ddde3566 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0xefa0a1ab27d1c9c5d92ba6797a0a32bf80594b348de58ac8993418b622c37c91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 1PM ET | 77,300,877 | 77,300,877 |
13b6a1f3d66d94ecfefaa5f7c1f7b81ac40cbea8 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x97db6942b3429d25505d77c9c5c9480fc2850f2e8c72a7f274c6c3f2dd791c17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-7-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3PM ET | 77,415,759 | 77,415,759 |
723161f199d3faea855f2587fb1290c26a562423 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x70f4928048ce3615322b17130021691f036943a7d4287582a7f6584a53576a9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-october-8-8pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 8, 8PM ET | 77,483,202 | 77,483,202 |
3961a2ac9c772a0838dff281c6edd651d422e237 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x489f476762177c170730bc02811f16d9a8736e3da308fcb5907a6af74250fec2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-8-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3PM ET | 77,483,206 | 77,483,206 |
1fedec74f84dfc52ee06ea2acf54aa496ad091aa | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x700409ac5f213bc354bcf8a742d0c54e881c6fa0f18c465a932fc30f73a58b71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-11-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 7AM ET | 77,567,243 | 77,567,243 |
bb8b2958619af12a1fde8ec81ecc340ab2f3a02d | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0xeacae80853e79e2a56cd76b1869566ef4ec203462d6521eff8e61757a59680d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | up | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-october-15-5pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 15, 5PM ET | 77,752,728 | 77,752,728 |
ff1b3ccaf0d2fe37d70e0f82976ef2a5e9cbf5a8 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x78efce8989948f3d8f17fbece29d808192a5906f0ff999bc4aab79d3c745f2d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-15-10pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 10PM ET | 77,752,729 | 77,752,729 |
7549dcf319969bd3090350575cdb49e3fe2997bb | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0xa1a8538173837cf3a7b90f512807c1b6fe41ae0dfbea768a3ab6ecf98ef9aa33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-16-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 8AM ET | 77,802,205 | 77,802,205 |
f4c09330794caf220aae32d8146e761729edab39 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0xe451ea8d1718908b2dcbda49b2630339380189d098b5da3cdb1f87235aff8b85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-16-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 8AM ET | 77,802,207 | 77,802,207 |
ff033b4540f35b89cbc9fbae4b2fb8e2a6e9b4e0 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x5e554964635a10fcab95322fda2a86a87577d5e9b3c7ed0712b0ce740d274b32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.20793999277362202
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-16-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 8PM ET | 77,802,208 | 77,802,208 |
06ed66fc25b32213bd625a741ef61f604a4b4221 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x06b85701f963bd83726f9c1da8ce8d33216c0dbd2a232b1e09b0c676f5273b9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.047326996561651
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-16-8pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 8PM ET | 77,802,210 | 77,802,210 |
9f535bb8651fb76c27e884a5cd19927780dbcbd4 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x571aa38160775074358788fd678bc5dd5170768a96ab907eeaaf41119e075fd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.047326996561651
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.1711767746371346
3. Question: ... | down | 1 | solana-up-or-down-october-25-2am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET | 78,185,930 | 78,185,930 |
647d86f63371cda0c5bd04c6a10cfb17b408835c | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x6e0c3669a432667125c40a1b26648da9e150b1cc626e02945040b79426540044 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.1711767746371346
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Do... | down | 0.979346 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET | 78,185,932 | 78,185,932 |
d36a44b98075c6808644d6b35d60ddc78af3b613 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0xe9243fc8b134efd6f327b6a8f7a5166a9010087bf196ebe0f3d137dfe76c07ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 9... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET | 78,185,934 | 78,185,934 |
ef97012722105af8234d993de5b4ef6777383fb6 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x988e87a7a16c280eacd176060df828a22d6b32fa6aaa49a91fe0764e023d72b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, ... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6AM ET | 78,271,028 | 78,271,028 |
4a744ea79507071a70ae51f43ce71c663f4e9432 | 0x1a4249cd596a8e51b267dfe3c56cacc25815a00b | 0x1c6af13ab12b4c8ff3ec8ad8f0bfda6b7e0bda663c0a2458c1515105c9b85e28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 24, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September... | up | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-october-28-2pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET | 78,301,790 | 78,301,790 |
fdac765e67ea37ea9ff62ea2763a421a56de2c94 | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0x4de0de3735bc7335dcae745081d46513a6c71f3a097ed589d22ea0b688421c53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2?
Event: champions-league-final-exact-score
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | champions-league-final-exact-score | Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | 72,836,903 | 72,836,904 |
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