sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
54de653b8930c809a57d9377e5b8880274c29b2b | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0xafabf16463bb2f62ddd5729086d0c60633e5631e38e1117019fb180a3c3708dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | 73,035,878 | 73,035,878 |
e2d6e64fd05e23e82af45df3a90169e9a96e9cee | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0xad14874c4df52fa96ff603c44537630e4b96df4d3354de9aaf906b4df5bb6e8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,039,681 | 73,039,681 |
06785450cfed84790996d155acf51f3bc2447b84 | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0xd8e1295a7b627b8f1f08380f7836796d71f793192ecd8bc6179378dcf83b9495 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-d-winner-286 | Will Chelsea win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,039,683 | 73,039,683 |
e6fcac6c3724e34dafde20230cb1fbf5e0fd0cbc | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0xb98e20a78cf8092afd75716e11fceeda3b38a10dc3c263c048e2acde09f0bd3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-b-winner-886 | Will Atlético Madrid win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,173,797 | 73,173,797 |
9eda1a243832fff0d99c091bf475f7817a29d671 | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0x7ec21f8680dcb5771ff3434e881f0710d3a5d4e635b18b5753b0bcee1c5ee667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,199,428 | 73,199,428 |
ae139619a76f9cf13475d19cbd54d4e77e12473a | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0xf459cd2a31e473150c2955f6d7abeb3ecf4410a3645276a566f4ee2dbe4823a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-e-winner-813 | Will Internazionale win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,235,865 | 73,235,867 |
0f00d0c76ae8cf37753893292ea7ca01cdf15de2 | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0xc45a17a7f0aecd784a54ed88ba578ae13587b3fae8dde8d24dd4ef1adeaf8647 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27? | 73,359,651 | 73,359,651 |
0877b936c62f8ed415a534627e74433d269c07af | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0xc45f6f5fcbc814bdcaf46b16eccfec63cef615cc364d75ad3f49f74e0afd3615 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,926,261 | 73,926,261 |
7d9df3642a2ad5b2b7947b36a22b5b1e77b3aad1 | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0x1ea2a2b927690a41499c2b1224a12c2bb8ccd207764394b91bfc1d40a48f7cd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on July 26? | 74,441,319 | 74,441,319 |
c2d5dac6c39acaed28013e85283ad245428cbf4f | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0x2165cb90918f2e21120f50e97c7d863b0f50d770a8578b3880eb07f7dc155f3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-28 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 93-94°F on July 28? | 74,547,490 | 74,547,490 |
1a19970ca3a688f3343921a361f2c715c5228c5b | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0xe05e75c398ff190baa8de753ee3b7d2f13446d440648194a438c54f006f8f854 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-30 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 99°F or higher on July 30? | 74,607,483 | 74,607,483 |
d47b7682f9575453580dd4bcf211748b02f54f03 | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0x54b00f4ad64f70d6237baf2bab646c9befc4705d94b720758b2e020aafb97792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-4 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 4? | 74,822,088 | 74,822,088 |
0ee83c5d9744f24850cffc9bc6c4dca9f26fda3c | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0x42e60d81c06b349566d25bb56bc75296b556a048cdf49aa92814311a5c3a8a6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-12 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 12? | 75,146,778 | 75,146,778 |
960dabee0056282133cf5de436f295d9d84eed4c | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0xb8c1682b5ba8a6ae3162a86420bb11ec6686eddf63b4c2baacb66be6d6b2686a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-888 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 30 million views on day 1? | 75,249,457 | 75,249,457 |
f93cce8c141e9ed316b32e38e61b3e7774c96d33 | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0x863b18e6918c61993ad965944489e478f0a7f38a35d6b9674b3f6e6f5bfefd10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-ovi-2025-08-15 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-08-15? | 75,267,403 | 75,267,403 |
66b13fb91d162df8077de1a2dcc0a6e42307012b | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0x148abdb546ce4abf102625b31e8ff6f55f3e84c389dafd078a5054231a463378 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | 75,296,069 | 75,296,069 |
8c0a2f01241d5d9afa04bd3360f7c11d81b89be4 | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0xba7cd0f8ed63078157cabcf78a45446f0611ce7a55721db53e6da46e086a3996 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16? | 75,296,069 | 75,296,069 |
ea738f3aa4296da2657cfcca1ffad8d23eaa8dcd | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0x600c6599bdbf7077bd063238a1686cf2eecbdf637f78a8435c896a48910f6886 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | which-city-will-host-eurovision-2026 | Will Vienna host Eurovision 2026? | 75,443,668 | 75,443,668 |
1c5f5b476b14567fe9be54bf32a46a45b9807fb0 | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0x72d9bc9adfcbbe28c0e7c56ae6f429a45817b925e8efef464dce20b7fddf5105 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | con-bra-chl-2025-09-04 | Will Brazil win on 2025-09-04? | 76,073,222 | 76,073,222 |
3c4a2e9d4e30b372e6cfebae25f042c754c7ed53 | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0x74d047a24512c5a16d8b91d1bf4ef0a4ff6a90c35d7c5f98a180506ebb9f268f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | lal-osa-ray-2025-09-14 | Will Osasuna win on 2025-09-14? | 76,520,711 | 76,520,711 |
c7932bad8bbaf806461b429f65180c293370c06f | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0xc57c48ea08192107f7981b041ba115663b3d14935ea4315337a5e64351ddfa5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | 76,554,363 | 76,554,363 |
4ec0177710c866155fe00283ac891bfd80881699 | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0x28a2c341bde029fb59f598c802bbd04763f634aa5ec642a7b016dfaee0000582 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | ucl-mac-nap-2025-09-18 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-18? | 76,633,369 | 76,633,369 |
a73d490d5d45f10c428f9d13b8203619facf4e72 | 0x1a548e77cdb1a51b2b3d0e67f89f4862cf52e581 | 0x7bdfa2d7ae3b82c5e4a06827cb4903c2d2eeeb0fc9a0c433db26e3ea79791c6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cu... | yes | 1 | bun-stu-pau-2025-09-19 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19? | 76,672,737 | 76,672,737 |
478923c564b89700c6ea4f1644e10f0071e00872 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x268ada694cb4b1a65f88bf6dedce0c08d5aba09621dbe85d9200ced0cac6226b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary?
Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | 64,684,577 | 64,684,577 |
c0a9703c87eb19f0774f2e4162954889e675fc12 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x27f33ec9a9433a0363086696610683cab7d6faeef195a352f08f2dae88d2b606 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary?
Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary
Predict th... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | 64,684,577 | 64,684,577 |
b8754154a895a1a15ed85433b091bc16158adb96 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x75f3339b115d3a948712a68736c2e6e7dd2c3835453258b258c4592225386407 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? | 64,684,577 | 64,684,577 |
8189bdfaff4856d8c72b46347494b10f2b581bd3 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xfeaf0ffc3e3e658687bcdcab297333ac981025bf9a4277facae81123af4708e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary? | 64,684,577 | 64,684,577 |
a3934de363178e15f267aae2ddfe6e15f9625ea5 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x624d5fed5c4d89d4375f95c003c6bb9475f549f834ef9f96891a24e069ced66c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-november | Will the US gain between 200-250k jobs in November? | 66,453,413 | 66,453,413 |
325d55fec7f42b0379e210e526fd5203aef94490 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x1414b0cce66b440db90604d5174bd2d88ed199c37c3d35b40a99a07fc098da7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | december-inflation | Will US annual inflation be 2.9% or greater in December? | 66,772,896 | 66,772,896 |
163e6de94d1b8d66820a51168811896bd6520f59 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x14703a80cc0238cd7264712e27fb3470b5be4f69fba7974eaf8675788f427604 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | december-unemployment-rate | Will US unemployment be 4.3% in December 2024? | 66,772,896 | 66,772,896 |
e2e65e89bafa91c605e0d55b3dcec1641f61253c | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x24ee858fba5f91b94e6278e71b8e1fdaabaf2a3680700d670f42aaa1c5f40179 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | november-inflation | Will inflation increase by 2.8% or more in November? | 66,772,896 | 66,772,896 |
ea16e74e43514d424908c465ac0f2b38814b4662 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x71da2bbc04a7eae0d8ef739c17025d85917c0ea7db07646b6400a4f6ccb9f304 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? | 66,772,896 | 66,772,896 |
040a0f387a918be9578e2e5dac4e22e82fc5acb2 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x8cdfb8a957b715ffa122cb119baa3676ac6332635a9eeb23ef944bf96a347e1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | november-inflation | Will inflation increase by 2.5% or less in November? | 66,772,896 | 66,772,896 |
fa98afe0f5354d2f50b50598db59b733e280ca23 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xe14c50866db2d1f77426253620a607746fdb1a831682ed43227fcca44e3b036a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Will US add between 100k and 150k jobs in December 2024? | 66,772,896 | 66,772,896 |
373d884de235d5708413f248cfb526dedbc1f9c5 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xe9efd4e41b8109b02b36718095bfe4a24c3cab31608d3d11038d53cf99f88f07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | november-unemployment-rate | Will the November unemployment rate be 4.0% or less? | 66,772,896 | 66,772,896 |
130e6b9896c1581498d2d6caf312038afc1b6767 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xf2ea6d9c3745d7b2fd81f7dea7de396ae5704ed861896873f57e65ec48cb2a34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-november | Will the US gain more than 250,000 jobs in November? | 66,772,896 | 66,772,896 |
645871aea690ff9308dd545fbe83013c37f69f87 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x38b3f83975b123fd50d1de3cb58e32bc48bf35a5766d4dded790d8c25f1226e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-january | Will there be 100-150k jobs added in January 2025? | 67,742,206 | 67,742,206 |
5992aed21c4ff987302d6b00d8790a530117540f | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xc1d49ff81efa1809ad9d7d107581dcd2d91eab63fb5ddc055015ee3dc48fa650 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-january | Will there be less than 100k jobs added in January 2025? | 67,742,206 | 67,742,206 |
b2208b39837df786a600999abd287fdbab9176be | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x5363ffdc02613b09ef90f685596bbfd0212eeaa88ad635a89daf76452982033f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | january-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January? | 68,113,251 | 68,113,251 |
04aa175236c5fee5794c7e11dfd0e9849a462fa8 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xd712dd34946bb296f69e372b77bfab77eccf074d7cdc7c2925c5703d12ab0f11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | january-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in January? | 68,113,253 | 68,113,253 |
9f2b601de47d82dd1917f6e03ea68c6a274b6225 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x81480ffeca5bb908bd880d9835fc495e52565b20c0aad87d64bc28da183c935c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | january-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% or more in January? | 68,113,261 | 68,113,261 |
88332164eaae7171f4f35456e5498cee4489f009 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x159e597549657a00421d674b06c00e419113768c306e10481842fe0164de8570 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-supporting-actress | Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,597,794 | 68,597,794 |
df098ac27a7a307ff5521868d895dcca6ae8cb59 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x1d2fe47b4f5753ed6ce64491456e092a569d76dbb5d55220c464e9641881ac67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 1 | oscars-best-adapted-screenplay | Will "Conclave" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,597,794 | 68,597,794 |
3fcb5c789bb16a93d1d2ba5cc3839b4b6378cb0d | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x433474e8291ada07968598c2c528cdd9a5f936db8d12f17fb6f3559c517fde6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-supporting-actress | Will Isabella Rossellini win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,597,794 | 68,597,794 |
baae1018d26cb4010d6ea48de341dd8625ed43a3 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x809ee5e0126c0f595b55bc0a25b13b4fddbfdf27fb1f2bebd37ead8ba130bc40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-supporting-actress | Will Felicity Jones win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,597,794 | 68,597,794 |
8a30f959343cca60c7a59c1ca6cc55baa549382e | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x83e1e698d2b61425f3a2d876870072b2cf3576053ae799fe4aea68280dcb0066 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 1 | oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Will "Wicked" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,597,794 | 68,597,794 |
05f641dfa192a8e7a6fbe30a7c5df342a1568388 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x9473680c7b89aa1f876860e61b9f2e990c484a951a4c2fd1679dd9b23ead21c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-picture | Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,597,794 | 68,597,794 |
a24edb72196d37713194df2159d7a3b0729b9e70 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xb26705174733a4fb8faf5ecd8761e008279b0df6c7fbd0a0272f6ff626523e93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-international-feature-film | Will "I'm Still Here" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,597,794 | 68,597,794 |
b8f29b360ae3a06f55ba7c2493b74f63290f3dea | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xec3919521b4d67a9c71acdc5e949331d6e74a792b633c46c1ce24adf59935cd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-supporting-actress | Will Monica Barbaro win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,597,794 | 68,597,794 |
471633da3dc7f8ec9e864af1aa5baa99b122a9f5 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xefa63303f9fa7b65f48ad33584ab6147280c1aa82bd16c01738d12b6ce55cdc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-actress | Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,597,794 | 68,597,794 |
1cab98e13910ad790e6bc8da76364af93f981093 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x801d19d4465f6458cf290614666fb1952d4038b7ca64d4211ac897b9ec74325b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february-2025 | Will 150-200k jobs be added in February? | 68,878,128 | 68,878,128 |
900a5ceddefa0c995efbd4698c8a636dcc627e6d | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xb8ff190306e5bc611908789c291ff31dd1228d28e95aaab0b025d0f611cdb453 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february-2025 | Will 100-150k jobs be added in February? | 68,878,128 | 68,878,128 |
1616a76c00ff6e459f9d71a525005ef5baadaf85 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x2e95c8296d3626317655520b39ce84dd5c1bbf97e4ec5ca6243943b4c7dd1ab7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | february-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in February? | 68,974,756 | 68,974,756 |
796c66280866a9da1248b9eb325178e43dfdef2b | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xf576d637a7968871e7eb1f9cf6d945fd278eb38f6364fa84724b85defbbb74cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | february-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in February? | 68,974,756 | 68,974,756 |
20ba262f2e1ea4d3f60e1c5b6f907a92256fda53 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x42b8304f759771cab23dbc8edb71a49c50fdf78ea38011af3f2019cdd478da60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Will the US add between 200-250k jobs in March? | 69,898,040 | 69,898,040 |
8b8a8d3404a2e5841b8967cecca434aa9338b423 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xdd49e88ccd384b47545969dfee80bc8a28986aba2f97e5a7c98bf465467d91c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Will the US add between 150-200k jobs in March? | 69,898,040 | 69,898,040 |
e21468ae99be12b3aa45107e9f7405c26174e3ed | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x2267c7da34808ef3911dd530746a1977522695cbd1af57d877af345f2f6d7b36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US gain between 200-250k jobs in November? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | march-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% or less in March? | 70,628,124 | 70,628,124 |
f5e0c9038b5086ca879c3851dd94f438661e2a29 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x067d92ae747363cd58f696351d9351e9bc39bc1dffb677b15a492f595f17009c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US gain between 200-250k jobs in November? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US annual inflation be 2.9% or greater in December? | Event: december-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US unemployment be 4... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-april-392 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in April? | 71,037,657 | 71,037,657 |
5da6d3382b7fa3d2cb510576532ed0e1eed9a26a | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xc181206cfc1510680a662ed61024ac2f5623450660d7b3aaf7897e660ced398a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US annual inflation be 2.9% or greater in December? | Event: december-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US unemployment be 4.3% in December 2024? | Event: december-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will inflation increase by 2.8% or ... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-april-392 | Will the US add less than 50k jobs in April? | 71,037,657 | 71,037,657 |
938aff85b443747ac5a2a0fe0bb95396a29c7572 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x0eb62fac38bb76c90efe3ee004db68aeb88babe95879499075d5dea4c4bb2c43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US unemployment be 4.3% in December 2024? | Event: december-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will inflation increase by 2.8% or more in November? | Event: november-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after D... | yes | 1 | which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? | 71,225,675 | 71,225,675 |
fdecf60aaaa546f1a9da78e7d0a1a97e8b332b0f | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xff9fc7e6239b4d92f24d9100f3b1415dfcbb34ec15afcdcc4359692b0517e20e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will inflation increase by 2.8% or more in November? | Event: november-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will inflation incr... | no | 1 | which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | 71,225,675 | 71,225,675 |
9e52b8a981bfb02b5d45781f38b11fe5de8ef787 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x4bb6de97e799c4202ab568e696667519bc9877316367da60c852ab6b29e826b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will inflation increase by 2.5% or less in November? | Event: november-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US add between... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | 71,315,011 | 71,315,011 |
ed5e7a500b6941ac0cf2d7ffaeb34fe702668ec5 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x89f0bc25093b13c1bbba16731bbdd8a8a9c4a4454d029ea52a2ea8f995205715 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will inflation increase by 2.5% or less in November? | Event: november-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US add between 100k and 150k jobs in December 2024? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the November unempl... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | 71,315,011 | 71,315,011 |
e3d624b6d2aa951cf992cd5fd223b2002691f8cf | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x94804ca845f8a47d7b57ded99651443836d4b7b10ee8ec6ed991b6c88eb37216 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US add between 100k and 150k jobs in December 2024? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the November unemployment rate be 4.0% or less? | Event: november-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US gain... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? | 71,315,011 | 71,315,011 |
353b5450fc6e18293f8caac4c5fc2b0813326373 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xc9419f62294dc0af13db4530a49c3608ee2e4d603e753de30aa5f192b81fb747 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the November unemployment rate be 4.0% or less? | Event: november-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US gain more than 250,000 jobs in November? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there be 100-15... | yes | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from Europe? | 71,315,011 | 71,315,011 |
23b0c161c6e31ec57d77b8b3183a41a8276b086b | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x03ea76bab956abdca163aa0103fefdad31ed9cc1726c56a2ede7caddc44899bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US gain more than 250,000 jobs in November? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be 100-150k jobs added in January 2025? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-january | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there be less... | yes | 1 | april-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in March? | 71,507,538 | 71,507,538 |
c8b5f68b6c054dab1132a8103ad23a34c30c5d28 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x06cbf1c3758ff561bbf81442695050a62a8db52a58e0046a223b745dbc6a299b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be 100-150k jobs added in January 2025? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-january | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be less than 100k jobs added in January 2025? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-january | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will monthly in... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-may-698 | Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in May? | 72,553,806 | 72,553,806 |
61ff61f6f69da254ec4ff5ea5a5854e84c9d3f1d | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x289e98b6fb7af1a4ecc99951d570c72c3364629c1ccf20fbd06d6541ebe3911c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be less than 100k jobs added in January 2025? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-january | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January? | Event: january-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will monthly inflat... | yes | 1 | may-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in May? | 72,642,546 | 72,642,546 |
481b3dfa40ff5ea2fff530487882fa7f695105cc | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x612c8e41ffed35ff1a6bb72acccaf4b3c11824715e09f2f65a7a959ca88284df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January? | Event: january-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in January? | Event: january-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will annual inflation... | yes | 1 | may-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in May? | 72,642,546 | 72,642,546 |
59e76a40d97713555960819cb806ac2984677205 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x7dcfeeeecc95b81ad350cf53610fd3263035ba4dd54e23a01ea95dc697e9aba3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in January? | Event: january-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% or more in January? | Event: january-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ariana Gra... | yes | 1 | may-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May? | 72,642,546 | 72,642,546 |
6ccd4f542c868b3019f2206ef608ccbc7bab37aa | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x9ecdfa4386aae99b911d15d42bc4da29cc52dc2a00d82a7f34b7231aa31f5d35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% or more in January? | Event: january-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-supporting-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-palmeiras-vs-fc-porto | Will Palmeiras beat FC Porto? | 72,836,294 | 72,836,294 |
20a3551daf5c32b9a5e17eb5f4ade7fc8603fe22 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x5844c062cef913e0d160a5076e6dce75a0e92d5c00e7703ea5e5a77c1b256043 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-supporting-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Conclave" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | 72,922,531 | 72,922,531 |
e468b65de84de4e9dbf7ff24ceb7c4e4820ae6f5 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x4df025c5e8da670b6f19cacea4d9c745960e8174126eb64fcfb4c9a67f2d75d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Conclave" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Isabella Rossellini win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-supporting-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-june-441 | Will the US add less than 50k jobs in June? | 73,538,099 | 73,538,099 |
1942e7279fc8d1921fdef7a4e26a4969ba9273a3 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xbb6335121fea76e1fcfba4f6caa68d447b399615dcea01901d4bca9a27cb6ecd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Isabella Rossellini win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-supporting-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Felicity Jones win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-supporting-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | june-unemployment-rate | Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%? | 73,538,099 | 73,538,099 |
be5380ff422ddd00d7a4a03c5004d4f52838d582 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xc449f7f691d7cd9da2db29937f9e79c0bdd8b353dd1d1a4d7f360fb60d0fc576 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Felicity Jones win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-supporting-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wicked" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-june-441 | Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in June? | 73,538,099 | 73,538,099 |
930ba822c46b1fd772c0a8e361ef23da831bf58b | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x3b256b777158a626315d4a3c1f984b823221692be00cabc2f7dd62a0e16068b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Wicked" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "I'm Still Her... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,612,748 | 73,612,748 |
4c389b13987b676cbc9e9b5e8ed3db6250fd921c | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x1a6a1200a90568609a23a428e0688057cb25d0212638aef192be1689cc2f6f81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "I'm Still Here" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-international-feature-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | june-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in June? | 73,994,617 | 73,994,617 |
25a78473fe6838b9adf15b03f08d4d409f091a85 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x2420008d1b5e9f6a8048a6499c090e035678baa4f963793033af3aa05ad8d145 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "I'm Still Here" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-international-feature-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Monica Barbaro win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-supporting-actress | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | june-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in June? | 73,994,617 | 73,994,617 |
255df59bddb270f0007f70d16c444ae443812046 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x84356d5bc0f4ab25e70869ace61e562219d9bfdbd57773f6591c74e085388778 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Monica Barbaro win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-supporting-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 150... | yes | 1 | june-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June? | 73,994,617 | 73,994,617 |
45b6a7bd2f75681cdd38e32fe7464d75396c94a6 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x1ff3643f5d4bf95adf75765050f90b8f34c94b8c7bf5d0608e7b92ba8db98fa9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 150-200k jobs be added in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 100-150k jobs be added i... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-july-453 | Will the US add less than 50k jobs in July? | 74,911,468 | 74,911,468 |
9761f503cd42598c0ccad1ac2f4dcb1736e1f198 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xc7e56e1a7af94a4a47ddaf098ef808d7fa1ec4cd6e281caf8d8bd2349f76ede7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 150-200k jobs be added in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 100-150k jobs be added in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will annual inflation increas... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-july-453 | Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July? | 74,911,471 | 74,911,471 |
cfc95e8d23e90481d32f4e7cb2efd8fbaa9ac3dd | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x8aa10e98487edf5a59572a7c8a9a4e2c6f2544a0a5df478477abf2bdd747c121 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 100-150k jobs be added in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in February? | Event: february-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will monthly inflation increa... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-july-453 | Will the US add more than 200k jobs in July? | 74,911,473 | 74,911,473 |
74085afd276a1e342036f66a82e3d52e7f728307 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xae3f5136860b205147f10c343a17e827f4c0a3264d5acca61218c1346dd0cf75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in February? | Event: february-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in February? | Event: february-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US add between 200... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-july-453 | Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July? | 74,911,476 | 74,911,476 |
baaf86a5a67940910b05b9e47873944ef37879bd | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x50c0d2822d753136e8e943cb3c2a84963220b0dab4fdca365ca131ee586da0ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in February? | Event: february-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add between 200-250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US add between... | yes | 1 | july-unemployment-rate | Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? | 74,911,490 | 74,911,490 |
a5bbbdea191656b5de757d6e916fa20f18b3dc63 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x6099f6b84fd4eaa547591ce8f5e3f632e03e1c585999f168294f7551535860ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add between 200-250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add between 150-200k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will annual inflation... | yes | 1 | july-unemployment-rate | Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.0%? | 74,911,492 | 74,911,492 |
0bca21b1992ee0d7a2213b48702c0c2e9310e89b | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xda39f58709928478f4e85fd6b811576a3a777e0c0260f1158ddb4ba5cfc954d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add between 150-200k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% or less in March? | Event: march-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US add between... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-announce-to-replace-kugler | Will Trump announce Judy Shelton to replace Kugler? | 74,958,222 | 74,958,222 |
7590e828a8d231adafcb3e482909d175c6f8399e | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xd19d2b7938338b2f7044d498a5508b6ea775c9c32d6154add6bfedd7ea7efd0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% or less in March? | Event: march-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in April? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-april-392 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US add less... | yes | 1 | july-inflation-annual-462 | Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in July? | 75,123,520 | 75,123,520 |
a904dd0722c1b0473b0e866fd6cec6ab0faa3c7f | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xde73d22df7782a7736cc5d6a3750cfd36f5a47c94c867f657ec955a0181a3894 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in April? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-april-392 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in April? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-april-392 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and... | yes | 1 | july-inflation-annual-462 | Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in July? | 75,123,529 | 75,123,529 |
d6463168de8ca6dc34897d682b19486912376bf4 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xab0bdc2af557289948c5224cf1b61c9bd8a8f03ac94e99daa488c8516258a814 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in April? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-april-392 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | august-unemployment-rate | Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.0%? | 76,088,972 | 76,088,972 |
f0c8da20790a2c75588ce5c5bc81e1bc65c872a4 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xceabc3b7429e811f05d01575b77e84f8eff4046561f04ec6835bed131d3e7335 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choic... | yes | 1 | august-unemployment-rate | Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? | 76,088,972 | 76,088,972 |
836ef6529aa74982277d1b42e932c04eb9b11c19 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xa47d5522a14e98422b06053bc153cbb731321e286c12a5a8f75036f6c302e167 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mario Grech ... | yes | 1 | august-unemployment-rate | Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | 76,088,977 | 76,088,977 |
43f85ef3f54802005063611bff5c7db991053b68 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x6aedb21e3b7ace35c1c279e325309af3dcf5e93d67afd8954f63a39cea319d46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-... | yes | 1 | august-unemployment-rate | Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | 76,088,979 | 76,088,979 |
23129389464b9ec62bccde8ff78f070476aa11b2 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xf2b8ef9a91b83147461d7ffd387677a64700d16391fc8440404aa10d0ba4221a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what-continen... | yes | 1 | august-unemployment-rate | Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%? | 76,088,983 | 76,088,983 |
616d8ee6be65c607c79a99c681bfefb6f2432928 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x0a3e162014e5d29d7b321e5d838e2051a186ece6744fbd6a6de46a505deb12d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in Ma... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-august-643 | Will the US add more than 200k jobs in August? | 76,088,991 | 76,088,991 |
b4c4093aab493d5c4288ceebcc32762e8c6a136e | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0xe5e3e312e8b6da9a502422438d6dfca96cf0d83612afb05ea57182adc589744e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in March? | Event: april-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US add between 50k and 99k jo... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-august-643 | Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in August? | 76,088,993 | 76,088,993 |
09f45d10a818d7d2b9c1c074503140504c2e3d1f | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x2278c1bb85cc3032e65dabffd22c7ce4759bbff8dadf40a0849856a796cec349 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in March? | Event: april-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in May? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-may-698 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will annual inflation increase ... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-august-643 | Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August? | 76,088,994 | 76,088,994 |
5de70cc3f96daf5fe2cc2e866eb5ea20a455fded | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x3e140cadcdda618e09c3bc308ce6fb65d4623f7477eb887ea4d03d54aa6ad700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in May? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-may-698 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in May? | Event: may-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will annual inflation increas... | yes | 1 | colombia-presidential-election | Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | 76,092,849 | 77,930,236 |
10b3b4450d4fea61e6590c8eaf447cc5c1fcd4f2 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x1b709f700a50e4b8e9d9a01c3b805675765a35e323c9f74a5eb278cae324e1d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in May? | Event: may-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in May? | Event: may-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% i... | yes | 1 | next-french-prime-minister-743 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next Prime Minister of France? | 76,265,770 | 76,265,770 |
50381906e3e64249e19b378b5626f246f7f8c0b9 | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x75e04ced25fbdd4c6082ade3b24a61d34f9ce7d07f297daa5275bbbf231b4db2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in May? | Event: may-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May? | Event: may-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Palmeiras beat FC Porto? | Event: fifa-clu... | yes | 1 | next-french-prime-minister-743 | Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France? | 76,265,770 | 76,265,770 |
bd9df7c8a13946e8b2326eb43e4772b93bedf4be | 0x1aba3c40acde42ce051c998abd1a9f064311c083 | 0x888956a1f8420091beab9bfa653de79f8fe503f4564bb894cc5e1df6f5973e67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May? | Event: may-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Palmeiras beat FC Porto? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-palmeiras-vs-fc-porto | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | E... | yes | 1 | next-french-prime-minister-743 | Will Éric Lombard be the next Prime Minister of France? | 76,265,770 | 76,265,770 |
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