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fac10afd677256899111a742d39921e3778625f1
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x590d0bf35aa2fd267a3c2f83e0ea896bb0aa906e1a83ff812a2fab4f68541e17
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? Event: largest-company-on-september-30 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
yes
1
largest-company-on-september-30
Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30?
62,589,695
62,589,695
1c6693dc82cf474cf1a5d95f10c9a2ac969cfb21
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x2f329f718b5f17dc4b8151cd22fdd137bc7d9470ebd631d340e86e60af45b678
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht Predict the user's choice and confidence for the t...
no
1
europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht
Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad?
62,667,461
62,667,461
64f06a68d0bc68f6025df86b8311a0ef260beeb5
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x6b76a93298745f41e8eec925d34f05845dfa68e18a675e5f357714388f5e774a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will ...
no
1
europa-league-slavia-praha-vs-ajax
Will Slavia Praha beat Ajax?
62,667,461
62,667,461
be2d20d42f02291bc5818a62fd3d15b478c4bb3f
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0xb38718f7463746f54e812bc84f2257bd66f497b0ef3ef061fa75e15f4f0d2e0a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray
Will FK RFS beat Galatasaray?
62,667,461
62,667,461
9141c36b9a591271e3faad51caf965dd435db1d4
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x78b8ea86ae5000490d8baf72fbc9f03d666587ffedf1182e3ac64ca7cb12a5df
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
epl-arsenal-vs-southampton
Will Arsenal beat Southampton?
62,862,681
62,862,681
497441d3725e0b9e9ca043bda7a84a02ce816266
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0xdae24e5f88467ac5f736c90a6de9df1cec5b59cf051e5bd39b1271c3c3c26c7a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
epl-manchester-city-vs-fulham
Will Fulham beat Manchester City?
62,862,681
62,862,681
44795f7c3be4c51a6bea9fa7e94d6f49642885c1
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x4e9488d4918b789209f66a1dbe5fad060569b390325ada56ccbf25fb857188c0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
yes
1
which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election
Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?
63,670,569
63,670,569
1178c6edf03baaaab366b0d247f377e9f235db1d
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x9fc36bb7895236ab0dc8424663d986e79cfd64068258da62e631c7bc9d4c4955
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
yes
1
so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024
Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?
63,670,569
63,670,569
327028d2d9ae3b9c7206e7a0833ad4549477d7cb
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0xda26b22adcc6ec6f3cf1dd596f3624ccaf8752f19736515c6ae7ed9f6c123566
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
cs2-iem-rio-2024-winner
Will another team win IEM Rio 2024?
63,670,569
63,670,569
56360e2050f2158dc2c8f5bf5a1e3a18b470dd02
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x8cdfb8a957b715ffa122cb119baa3676ac6332635a9eeb23ef944bf96a347e1e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
november-inflation
Will inflation increase by 2.5% or less in November?
65,560,319
65,560,319
8b5796292740cca427ab2245266355889e853fc3
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x554783fa7fa976932c95a505f06fb7b04fd06749237099c34a709e31a118d05b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
epl-midpoint-leader
Will Tottenham lead the EPL in points at midway point?
66,807,235
66,807,235
ad383cac4adddb37dbf18fba1a0322ff910c27e3
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0xae43e53d8516dd644c2b294c6fcdc8b345e905352672c7f6cf1ebfee127d9409
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
yes
1
which-state-will-kamala-win-by-the-largest-margin
Will Kamala Harris win Vermont by the largest margin?
66,807,235
66,807,235
eb988335902476d5fd8108d031a05d489602328e
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x4bc31a13785ec26c03db898a1e60a243cba2a09831759d54ec2b059dc5e13e43
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
epl-midpoint-leader
Will Chelsea lead the EPL in points at midway point?
66,807,237
66,807,237
2e0b9eab56a5133c95c285b67f3ceaf5815be070
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0xcd30346281d728bb08a85f4e36adccdd3c443300fa74aaefc7a4ee83744b4f49
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024?
66,807,237
66,807,237
c8db2f7e320863b37a56d2a821151a8364df6706
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0xf1e8d58513d652e1248d2da60d3b35a684362f15a4e9bcd90660ddfd044b16cd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
which-3rd-party-candidate-wins-most-votes
Will RFK Jr. get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate?
66,807,237
66,807,237
de6d331088c3f8a76ca88cbb5be499bf757dbda8
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x266221efb4cd5a6d47bcec13ab69766561d334b37cf1ac17ec4c7da0a60ff3b4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
yes
1
lal-rso-rea-2025-09-13
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13?
77,637,830
77,637,830
efe2d45bda9d42697901bc7e6455dd907c59c85e
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x315bc10cea2926ed706b38c329481c7c7cb341e8aff417019c736347734c5c8f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
yes
1
lal-bar-val-2025-09-14
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14?
77,637,830
77,637,830
036bf2d081d6a4cd04cbd0899709cd8c2315064e
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x0307106f98a2c6fe792df476d4c3be85779ec52c8e4ed21d68677c44448228ae
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
uef-isl-fra-2025-10-13
Will Iceland win on 2025-10-13?
78,675,688
78,675,688
4ae666bb493c905c0925fb4d11fa2c72ba52cbfb
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x28f7d60ec393a41e36519e17ad542c60e0312f7acff711b0df6b609b5112905c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-10-13?
78,675,688
78,675,688
2312f4ca88da1b87780ad129ab3feeeb637180dc
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x4356837cec1e18e58e6bd079f64a055b0aad71a854035209ef1a0b2a3e8c8222
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
uef-slv-che-2025-10-13
Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-13?
78,675,688
78,675,688
00bce3f7ec61867dedc14473a520f81338b59ef4
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x8ca1944bb82dca481489e2a8936c3e389a347461d9211ddab03d9280880e7597
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
yes
1
uef-and-ser-2025-10-14
Will Serbia win on 2025-10-14?
78,675,688
78,675,688
da936097715cd5498c1a7e28fb0e834a6b1f3090
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0xe4f64043b6d86c1f9c2a8f8a2c0e8a2273f07a47a8b130c6ae3330fc352b7721
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
uef-wal-bel-2025-10-13
Will Wales win on 2025-10-13?
78,675,688
78,675,688
b313c80c28cd9c600e2a4bc02b1ca327fed5fdb6
0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff
0x121191378e99c910e533a62515041547c4d18ccf6d50178470caadf4bb38c6d5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ...
no
1
bun-uni-bay-2025-11-08
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-11-08?
79,876,099
79,876,099
6fdb8e47e27c0f6a4a521d8b1e8225856df77fd9
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x47f5d478a6edf673d7181446885970afc17ecffc9e7afdf4e25b3fc486b29120
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
yes
1
bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET?
72,859,493
72,859,493
2f2a5d4b46b3982889cf3798b2c412d9398dd023
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xf9425f69ce7fbde7ee54887ea24b164d2d4c06b594c4d4f94b1921cd79321b19
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Event: next-president-of-south-korea Predict the user's choic...
yes
1
next-president-of-south-korea
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?
73,106,021
73,106,021
4365a5ec6aae703cc2254079089ab9abd89e8cab
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x3cab539b7797b6b81369042cfb98af27143893385edd3332f0b9442b4f32aefe
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Tar...
yes
1
elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?
73,106,022
73,106,022
affd6d20e47ff1775cfdcc51242523052fe589c7
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x40385275efa741161b1a8378e26819607298662d7f7bfb5485d4331ece8d0fb4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner
Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?
73,106,022
73,106,022
dd5e181cb288003cdf23443ac2338b953d23fd13
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x0c6c5cb8db69bd0927e05bf415f57fa37391951396cdba1f1b6a95e8b8a03f1b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
esports-world-cup-league-of-legends
Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament?
74,204,636
74,204,636
4916ae140b4f0738e3302b654a8d67c3f74b7a16
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x185b61c0aaba39c333756f39ac4f0ad38adc0e3540d70ea2b4f313deab4c878f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
no
1
chess-esports-world-cup-winner
Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?
74,644,920
74,644,920
3c6d1419a092d42c1854d59d54457999a40c96ea
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x0b7d7e34de7f7ebabc78f7d97728239d0287c52bb065e3ea5f67a1788721ce5f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
chess-esports-world-cup-winner
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?
74,690,355
74,690,355
6f1a1c6f84c8df00e49ce8dce0b0e8a53efc112b
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x2d0b4466cb89101b9f895b691887f25f8133113407cf5e03888de298fbed5e1b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
shelton
0.006616
atp-toronto-cobolli-vs-shelton
ATP Toronto – Cobolli vs. Shelton
74,769,626
74,770,179
036f8a94604711aeb79742438961a0913e962c85
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xb4b9fe40d86257ac567c507ce84835706a54d450f945502cafb314778ff54c9b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
no
1
tennis-atp-toronto-winner-477
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?
74,776,096
74,776,096
95a9970a079dda669e1bb7428db1b92cd2ca7a7a
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x402727a58c0a0b50031d938aa9596109a94293ef91c8371db16ee68ca15bd1d7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
tennis-atp-washington-dc-winner
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2025 ATP Washington tournament?
74,897,503
74,897,503
c3fd5ea293761c449ad84ee45244c00fc601d501
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xb48e395229e8fb041528d3aef56f2aeced8f6d9edf532d1cd043fbf62d95b2af
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on
Will GPT-5 be released on August 15 or later?
74,993,071
74,993,071
4feaf2fe7cca35418958a26eb47fa52dc09de060
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xbe3655f45ebc2b81d749b88b8f5032227f064b11b50f131d07ef3740d8d77dc9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
no
0.999747
what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?
74,993,071
74,993,071
69d315d8e16e46e1b417748a14138bc675a8471f
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xf714bdd9e862cea81a5b42e432fe45d9b3f80b0973061a14a58db1af7ec7628a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
no
1
fa-community-shield-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-536
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-10?
75,047,429
75,047,429
f08f9344593eac1184ca605982b59071a8ea750c
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x736de7d6e9162fa77ed9963e75ae57e8e27ba78c0ad08221dab71cf7ef675f90
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
no
1
uefa-super-cup-final-psg-vs-tottenham-575
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-13?
75,180,259
75,180,259
33ed234475f1f5c57e08e2e17c2bc8f4e24c811c
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x37fcf828abb63fd986423db5829bd2d79b4c1b6c2380839d5ae0b067c8542553
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15
Will Liverpool vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?
75,276,324
75,276,324
b2db15dc46a1ff46b38c87c6b5aef6b7ea3d6e97
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x148abdb546ce4abf102625b31e8ff6f55f3e84c389dafd078a5054231a463378
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16
Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16?
75,298,400
75,298,400
84a6b23c4f5ecd3f24b8f03bcfbf73bd2b906ff7
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x3af58f23c63082c38178b17e5b634d61b9170fa3aa2a54e15ca914c0b96a66b5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
no
1
epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-08-16?
75,298,400
75,298,400
2e071162fd5fab2eba02a34ddce70e52a58a7730
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x4aa6ba20cdb4db38011d097ee7bad1abf5cae5efbc38c630b8d4a64d872af50f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16?
75,298,400
75,298,400
4d2b9359464a63f60180522605822df6b6055e4f
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x739323baf61bec4e179617c127c2508d3da6928f111eb3108fc193b14cee8ae7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
no
1
epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16
Will Wolves win on 2025-08-16?
75,298,400
75,298,400
f94ac64d7040e91d77324ac7bf04bb3884460bb2
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xe6717d50d3bd162c6346543f25aa484e8ebe7d158ec49d72523f51790d8d5eca
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
no
1
lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16
Will Mallorca win on 2025-08-16?
75,298,400
75,298,400
a87070d62f90b8951ad2b27ca82aed0620b71181
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x15c9906c68055ec7c32b3c86b7b20b3ea9d07981c6cd2b286d271a4e6c8943d1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
cs2-blast-bounty-2025-season-2-finals
Will Spirit win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament?
75,340,788
75,340,788
36e42605a03d4b6625609d0435ba86d9f0454531
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x9cca0cd4d6c510986659a750acddf47e39713c08866f7a3c63c8dd5bdc9a5065
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
no
1
epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17?
75,340,788
75,340,788
5ba102c47dc0fa55d50d634b13765fdf9600efb1
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xb372aacbb360873391c3961bc4a4b45920aa7100c9f09a86043849da8e3c568d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
fl1-nan-psg-2025-08-17
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-17?
75,340,788
75,340,788
9f51d6543f0ac2ec244649dba185e58a9fdc3d44
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xeaf726ca496d920bde5f7a24281215ed4e0d0b2e8f7db9a6dfc1523b57cb1fa3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
no
1
lal-bil-sev-2025-08-17
Will Sevilla win on 2025-08-17?
75,340,788
75,340,788
b4dadec07b7cfa439cdb2cc841dd2324b0c58171
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x08853a5a5195ec3b86c4f06aa5d28f300aa8aee62461aaec8ac3f702148ad37d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
no
1
epl-wes-che-2025-08-22
Will West Ham win on 2025-08-22?
75,541,407
75,541,407
4bb854f6a060d3e38a2e70c3e37f2d8f3f459b9b
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xe5db53bb45338e2f20949af7e5ddc04e094c33cb91fda6fb9ebbdf44fc1174a9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
epl-wes-che-2025-08-22
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22?
75,541,407
75,541,407
847186ff54e7569fcd1af1f6aa222975d5a8f07a
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xf4ae9ea1c9966e06b033b5d80a74e0999d4a405074405ea2526c40acc395ee2a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
esports-world-cup-cs2
Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?
75,604,850
75,604,850
7f3080a8f5c0f9e9acb2434e1b2cb3dfe8763118
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x14d016fbe336c15c3bdc0f89c6e54fb7213bff9314b4dd65921db6bdf79c9736
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-17?
75,636,273
75,636,273
03c8061637788dbd1adb73c56864ebc300aa8cb8
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x6890f39e0bb7f48985442a969a9a3e08650cb457e6a3098bdc9229af24a9e61e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
no
1
lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17
Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-17?
75,636,273
75,636,273
31ce8a3d2f32c245f5137c98252f32ad0d66c48f
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xa9edc131663a8ccbb5262e8be1511780dc6b2e976bdf72990876bffe2a63e0f0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
lal-bil-sev-2025-08-17
Will Athletic Club vs. Sevilla end in a draw?
75,636,273
75,636,273
4d8e334dc4eab68736f87f1c7e89388b31cb6e01
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xed5f4e1cd9b239dba49f27bf7c822a36d08681438cc14f224fecd1def79d8d54
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
epl-che-cry-2025-08-17
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17?
75,636,273
75,636,273
5e81bd40139044e763cc244420a3782f47755286
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xfac7fd0e53395dbfb6ca7b26db9715413308039d38a57bb29d2de0dbad78bf24
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3...
no
1
epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24
Will Everton win on 2025-08-24?
75,636,273
75,636,273
144e22c65bbd5d4556d0cc18115e7890935fb49f
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x7e39eee4c0ca2f25881d449fae3ce480c3f55e06a3e473c07fa67918815fd2d9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | C...
yes
1
ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26
Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26?
75,711,825
75,711,825
de3de5776a0ddb1c155ac642a41fd517070c66ca
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x9c0edd2f37a95a9bb8d4679d7b90392cfd85e67d304375c9bf40a13498a4d0d3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-league-of-legend...
no
1
ucl-sgr-bod-2025-08-26
Will Sturm Graz win on 2025-08-26?
75,711,825
75,711,825
c412bfdd8619800f9ef3314c72658558361d7eb9
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x14402dc8dc30d1514d66a7e5bdcb111acc423e08ba6deca7f09f532633da843a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Qu...
yes
1
2025-us-open-winner-w
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open?
76,147,466
76,147,466
ac01b102a589c04373a33119c96b9de954a99b46
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x5adf02e46fa31e895d62f931978ffe3b111cb267437244788a4a6f7b743d8d9a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: ATP Toronto...
yes
1
cs2-blast-open-london-2025
Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament?
76,266,224
76,266,224
094ec919276a281f84241f0e58f42762ab1730c7
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xf148363b1d27ca84143da1a4d402ebc570315993fd7a59fdbdb797c77dcdb50f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: ATP Toronto – Cobolli vs. Shelton | Event: atp-toronto-cobolli-vs-shelton | Choice: shelton | Confidence: 0.006615926985905729 3. Question: Will Flav...
yes
1
fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12?
76,380,763
76,380,763
81ed7608212aa9a0ee17b87b8cdcd719644938bd
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x411e4d4738f45f0ce40dd64e802e0c8ec4028124bd8584f5524120e28465f3db
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: ATP Toronto – Cobolli vs. Shelton | Event: atp-toronto-cobolli-vs-shelton | Choice: shelton | Confidence: 0.006615926985905729 2. Question: Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-toronto-winner-477 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alejand...
no
1
bun-b04-ein-2025-09-12
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-12?
76,403,482
76,403,482
6e5c3e814aa9f8f70825a1a054203995913548bd
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x266221efb4cd5a6d47bcec13ab69766561d334b37cf1ac17ec4c7da0a60ff3b4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-toronto-winner-477 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2025 ATP Washington tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-washington-dc-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Ques...
yes
1
lal-rso-rea-2025-09-13
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13?
76,420,678
76,420,678
e56e988ecee32aef2760bde7c9370b7e05695de0
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x56848d4be72f57f7b44a1100a3c384444b5c4b39528827f112ad2465a35f3e94
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2025 ATP Washington tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-washington-dc-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 15 or later? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question:...
yes
1
epl-ars-not-2025-09-13
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13?
76,420,678
76,420,678
823068c221184d3c8ebda2882f98aaeddfdec69c
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x8709b3fa1f50046fd9000df7ade47a09d0c11bea8979270b24b80671f4fc9292
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 15 or later? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9997470548330255 3. Question: Will Crystal Palace...
yes
1
fl1-ogc-nan-2025-09-13
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-13?
76,420,678
76,420,678
41a623554bd69b40bedec0bd9e02ac9686fecc70
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xafff3c833567330e7d948f236447728153805f6b4f0879285c3569b6459f6bf3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9997470548330255 2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-10? | Event: fa-community-shield-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-536 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Totte...
yes
1
epl-new-wol-2025-09-13
Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-13?
76,420,678
76,420,678
2a19e636de3714a1d5237e9a695b75d7dcd2bdd2
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x315bc10cea2926ed706b38c329481c7c7cb341e8aff417019c736347734c5c8f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-10? | Event: fa-community-shield-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-536 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-13? | Event: uefa-super-cup-final-psg-vs-tottenham-575 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Liverpool vs. B...
yes
1
lal-bar-val-2025-09-14
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14?
76,459,375
76,459,375
880e0d069e2441d28f92ab892dacfa17ecff3156
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x7a269da637483c1a8bd65816604de87592db82baa7934e63d6917c1b168764af
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-13? | Event: uefa-super-cup-final-psg-vs-tottenham-575 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event...
yes
1
dota-2-the-international-2025
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament?
76,459,375
76,459,375
dcb0a04dc5be0c7033efcb48874401b73656e798
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xa6810873af2eeac42bc2445db3e505d00fa738789b519da49e1f24194924c5f4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-202...
yes
1
2025-eurobasket-championship-winner
Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship?
76,459,375
76,459,375
56a940798c7decac83fda00435d0e51b4b3e1c4c
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x6131be08cf78a449afe4429997b01e794d23c699a45e5fa5479bdc1619f1d6a2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Cho...
yes
1
epl-cry-sun-2025-09-13
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-13?
76,495,674
76,495,674
8b104f0573c7c095c761ceac0280ca27ec83d5a2
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x684b69916037f29c02cd6ce4acaae23d155951bfa24668d563216a7386b62317
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16 | Choice...
yes
1
2025-eurobasket-mvp
Will Alperen Şengün win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP?
76,495,674
76,495,674
93fef89e0a7fbe9a6282b3829a9c2579bcea3a54
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xafcb290d0c1866372d6519db936b6fd76db3b6eb71fd0fc9cb6a6531dd0cee07
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: ...
yes
1
epl-bre-che-2025-09-13
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13?
76,495,674
76,495,674
f01e368f5c2303c9dcd82219d7bbf5f6c3f1f00c
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x2dcfcb6d3ab1d92abff687f45efd592fe806cb57bac25834c8ec07f9135e1a80
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Spirit win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-b...
no
1
lal-esp-mal-2025-09-15
Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-15?
76,498,871
76,498,871
53bfd547c379739b6ded0ae291af6a99b7a88854
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xc57c48ea08192107f7981b041ba115663b3d14935ea4315337a5e64351ddfa5e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Spirit win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-bounty-2025-season-2-finals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-...
yes
1
ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16?
76,535,808
76,535,808
160f257e060833dd0f1c4e33d27aeb40fb6ba9b0
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x8c5927af2b98879999712a217d1ff65d34c13ebadcb619007e4852ea76a7845c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Spirit win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-bounty-2025-season-2-finals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain F...
yes
1
ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16?
76,539,372
76,539,372
34c50e744e3c631cbce27cfe5716870be6b9dc22
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xa95bda98964f533dafdeee3ad0788cffaf3b1f12ce07bfa37265c940e30696ba
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-17? | Event: fl1-nan-psg-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Sevilla win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-bil-se...
yes
1
fl1-lyo-ang-2025-09-19
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-09-19?
76,661,607
76,661,607
35347fda316894cf20c439f8451953b96794b173
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xf72fdbbd1844ae6d1d9cef8a0a7795a3b46582fb2fe784c998e8cfa21a5287e6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-17? | Event: fl1-nan-psg-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Sevilla win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-bil-sev-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08...
no
1
ere-spa-twe-2025-09-19
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-09-19?
76,661,607
76,661,607
6966cdddc0366a82ce2783dda28f9c4a26c2a9ad
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x09d62daf905d6456b42c6300afb3b1bf40e13281bfe41a5134aa407d68c5ceb9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Sevilla win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-bil-sev-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: ye...
yes
1
lal-bet-rso-2025-09-19
Will Real Betis vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?
76,680,176
76,680,176
327b242591352f5af04824ea9cd7e0d63b7a7c18
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x7bdfa2d7ae3b82c5e4a06827cb4903c2d2eeeb0fc9a0c433db26e3ea79791c6a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: es...
no
1
bun-stu-pau-2025-09-19
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19?
76,680,176
76,680,176
eb86022fee7e21f2bf65db839babb3c0deb334a7
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xfefaa14ee813fd9606e1bc90e4b1ba8c584de2647604cac193765c50547d343e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-17? | Ev...
no
1
ucl-spo-kay-2025-09-18
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-09-18?
76,680,176
76,680,176
87eb8308c3180d93ee1178f5130c2ea3340c529d
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x3f49c6df2966ab5999292d9dd4587aaae899e221459fdc0f186306bf5063ea9c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-17? | E...
no
1
sea-ver-juv-2025-09-20
Will Verona win on 2025-09-20?
76,701,461
76,701,461
d2a90ba944ebe1559f61f32e011ed6ae35a045bd
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xbfb60c899c3f90c0db94aeabf0b437f004d8a7e059da5c0def434ee7b3c58b0c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Athletic Club vs. Sevilla end in a draw? | Event: lal-bil-sev-...
yes
1
epl-mun-che-2025-09-20
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20?
76,706,319
76,706,319
e79e5ef0d0f06ba3e72573bd3f141e6ed3ee917d
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xcedd04b5c8e1b468ed848ecbe28ba4df1753b880ac76d67b053141b70656bac2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Athletic Club vs. Sevilla end in a draw? | Event: lal-bil-sev-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-che-cry-2025-08-...
yes
1
fissure-playground-2
Will Team Falcons win FISSURE Playground 2?
76,706,319
76,706,319
b64c16295e66d6c78b171a32cc1f436e1514e2cd
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xea82f433bc23bb91d664058aab2ff9ce8bdf1164ebe4a42963d9f0bceac6c0a5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Athletic Club vs. Sevilla end in a draw? | Event: lal-bil-sev-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-che-cry-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-...
yes
1
epl-bur-not-2025-09-20
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-20?
76,706,319
76,706,319
20402dcdce83fdbb27f3b46015c5f5bbdaa91bc5
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xf25b3a43d717e2b6cc164231359867d845b36be4263458d75155744f649d5bfd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-che-cry-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26 | Choice: yes...
yes
1
sea-nap-pis-2025-09-22
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22?
76,782,552
76,782,552
7ea4c6ce2e6f34789212ab48a52b32ef3ea370f4
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x8095b21ecc172779d0ed0c3aa0d24b90d866db0ea16fe94c536c769218086b3c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Sturm Graz win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-sgr-bod-2025-08-26 | Choice: ...
yes
1
fl1-olm-psg-2025-09-21
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-21?
76,783,686
76,783,686
c3dfbd229117ca5a4d3db4773b42af25be5bb54f
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x6de5bb4c73363cb7ca472f165ab5c3ec7fff69ce5ea74950846730c69e3046dd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Sturm Graz win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-sgr-bod-2025-08-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w...
no
1
mex-gua-nec-2025-09-23
Will Club Necaxa win on 2025-09-23?
76,833,718
76,833,718
470261d8870aa2f191ff48465e37732cc187a901
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xba70eea2357da4c3c55048403973ab0fe3fb1b681cce5c876b073ce1d95feb5f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Sturm Graz win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-sgr-bod-2025-08-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Eve...
no
1
mex-leo-maz-2025-09-23
Will Mazatlán FC win on 2025-09-23?
76,836,801
76,836,801
7befc5247bc53f355db4b93936912dd2239cb753
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x88248a0e3411b4c09ed3237ab5484584cc4a4b1d7e0dfa6d85a8ff6eea9cb6e3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on ...
yes
1
mex-leo-maz-2025-09-23
Will Club León FC vs. Mazatlán FC end in a draw?
76,837,173
76,837,173
0c99af20b602e84fc988b584bce087925639659b
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x31954a1af3e9d669dd2e0cb11225c32a2ba0412a342091b483fff5d565dceb7d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 20...
no
1
uel-mid-stuk-2025-09-24
Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2025-09-24?
76,863,282
76,863,282
ceb8389ab0d673843826f57bac5eef2309fa7333
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x6b87db6f7d92301ffd91a6ee9b54c7fe1201baf4e33dcd33ac1957e322d208a2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-12? | Event: bun-b04-ein-2025-09-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-rso...
no
1
mex-tig-atl-2025-09-24
Will Atlas FC win on 2025-09-24?
76,873,908
76,873,908
03ab12784d1be479ae8ca556afa2f6552990f7df
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x98b4377b9ea2593da69a38b9ef6e8d81a3dbe814ef9b939534f42060b5fe4af6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-12? | Event: bun-b04-ein-2025-09-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-rso-rea-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ars-not-2025-09-13...
no
1
mls-vwh-por-2025-09-24
Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-09-24?
76,876,500
76,876,500
882da5133e945bc764ab85bf60f7977b19899998
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xfe9bc363f7bfe187b52d4b798b008f66cc2e2eaccc5a6d13cd8ac2d217b2c113
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-rso-rea-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ars-not-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-13? | Event: fl1-ogc-nan-2025-09-13 | Choi...
no
1
uel-utr-lyo-2025-09-25
Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-09-25?
76,903,684
76,903,684
0265ca5fd3a99fd6494415159fd87526079a5db8
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xa7b5365bf0f763b3a9f5a4bfa2c6c1a1e3ca39721570fa249eb3bc40d74703eb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ars-not-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-13? | Event: fl1-ogc-nan-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-new-wol-2025-09-13 | Choice...
no
1
uel-ran-gkn-2025-09-25
Will Rangers win on 2025-09-25?
76,904,658
76,904,658
f53747922a7de95490af23ae573d76f7ece5e516
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x42141f61abd5fa398f17b9824837765ff8b93f07515b4591e945a08eacd1fe9c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-13? | Event: fl1-ogc-nan-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-new-wol-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Choi...
no
1
rus-kss-din-2025-09-26
Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara win on 2025-09-26?
76,944,264
76,944,264
de88209517e7f315a055739989d147d17cbb151e
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x825de83eab7b2146eeeac21b7f3299e3517e34536168fb6f359197763c3998d6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-new-wol-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-...
yes
1
tur-ala-gal-2025-09-26
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-09-26?
76,944,264
76,944,264
eb81f599e0e0ebad1acc26af557e395be527282c
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0xdb4c9be8df4f83ccfce2c59e6aa17357324a0bead6b4f154aa562c701f521192
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Cham...
no
1
lal-gir-esp-2025-09-26
Will Girona win on 2025-09-26?
76,944,264
76,944,264
9e4d0a77c05a6311564177f77d383132f361fa58
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x806db4ef536678fab5390d642d965e6b446dd2d646cfa94f8218f2e900a32b6b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Crysta...
no
1
epl-che-bri-2025-09-27
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-27?
76,987,408
76,987,408
8cd141086e641edab79f59e4b2aa49356eb9ec27
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x84fc03261c1854035d1da53f8b7a688514d6c7a52b20c0f07839e8288bbab86d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-cry-sun-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alperen Şengün win the 2025 Eur...
no
1
bun-wol-lei-2025-09-27
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-27?
76,987,408
76,987,408
22f28c2e8ffd36cac13b08b721bdf2a2e61611f6
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x88857ba36ec360abf8216ed9c43ca8d9b7a39791163d14c3471a9e32d0cd24ab
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-cry-sun-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Alperen Şengün win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-bre-che-2...
no
1
epl-not-sun-2025-09-27
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-27?
76,987,408
76,987,408
79e2ba11618efc666d51151f8ae327e6afc61dfb
0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713
0x966b064435ec900fd533eee091649a418becb436d1b2af390846bb222ca7a97c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alperen Şengün win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-bre-che-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-15? | Event: lal-esp-mal-2025-09...
no
1
epl-lee-bou-2025-09-27
Will Leeds United win on 2025-09-27?
76,987,408
76,987,408