sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
fac10afd677256899111a742d39921e3778625f1 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x590d0bf35aa2fd267a3c2f83e0ea896bb0aa906e1a83ff812a2fab4f68541e17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30?
Event: largest-company-on-september-30
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | largest-company-on-september-30 | Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | 62,589,695 | 62,589,695 |
1c6693dc82cf474cf1a5d95f10c9a2ac969cfb21 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x2f329f718b5f17dc4b8151cd22fdd137bc7d9470ebd631d340e86e60af45b678 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad?
Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the t... | no | 1 | europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | 62,667,461 | 62,667,461 |
64f06a68d0bc68f6025df86b8311a0ef260beeb5 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x6b76a93298745f41e8eec925d34f05845dfa68e18a675e5f357714388f5e774a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will ... | no | 1 | europa-league-slavia-praha-vs-ajax | Will Slavia Praha beat Ajax? | 62,667,461 | 62,667,461 |
be2d20d42f02291bc5818a62fd3d15b478c4bb3f | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0xb38718f7463746f54e812bc84f2257bd66f497b0ef3ef061fa75e15f4f0d2e0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Will FK RFS beat Galatasaray? | 62,667,461 | 62,667,461 |
9141c36b9a591271e3faad51caf965dd435db1d4 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x78b8ea86ae5000490d8baf72fbc9f03d666587ffedf1182e3ac64ca7cb12a5df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | epl-arsenal-vs-southampton | Will Arsenal beat Southampton? | 62,862,681 | 62,862,681 |
497441d3725e0b9e9ca043bda7a84a02ce816266 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0xdae24e5f88467ac5f736c90a6de9df1cec5b59cf051e5bd39b1271c3c3c26c7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | epl-manchester-city-vs-fulham | Will Fulham beat Manchester City? | 62,862,681 | 62,862,681 |
44795f7c3be4c51a6bea9fa7e94d6f49642885c1 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x4e9488d4918b789209f66a1dbe5fad060569b390325ada56ccbf25fb857188c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election | Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | 63,670,569 | 63,670,569 |
1178c6edf03baaaab366b0d247f377e9f235db1d | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x9fc36bb7895236ab0dc8424663d986e79cfd64068258da62e631c7bc9d4c4955 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | yes | 1 | so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | 63,670,569 | 63,670,569 |
327028d2d9ae3b9c7206e7a0833ad4549477d7cb | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0xda26b22adcc6ec6f3cf1dd596f3624ccaf8752f19736515c6ae7ed9f6c123566 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | cs2-iem-rio-2024-winner | Will another team win IEM Rio 2024? | 63,670,569 | 63,670,569 |
56360e2050f2158dc2c8f5bf5a1e3a18b470dd02 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x8cdfb8a957b715ffa122cb119baa3676ac6332635a9eeb23ef944bf96a347e1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | november-inflation | Will inflation increase by 2.5% or less in November? | 65,560,319 | 65,560,319 |
8b5796292740cca427ab2245266355889e853fc3 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x554783fa7fa976932c95a505f06fb7b04fd06749237099c34a709e31a118d05b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | epl-midpoint-leader | Will Tottenham lead the EPL in points at midway point? | 66,807,235 | 66,807,235 |
ad383cac4adddb37dbf18fba1a0322ff910c27e3 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0xae43e53d8516dd644c2b294c6fcdc8b345e905352672c7f6cf1ebfee127d9409 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | yes | 1 | which-state-will-kamala-win-by-the-largest-margin | Will Kamala Harris win Vermont by the largest margin? | 66,807,235 | 66,807,235 |
eb988335902476d5fd8108d031a05d489602328e | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x4bc31a13785ec26c03db898a1e60a243cba2a09831759d54ec2b059dc5e13e43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | epl-midpoint-leader | Will Chelsea lead the EPL in points at midway point? | 66,807,237 | 66,807,237 |
2e0b9eab56a5133c95c285b67f3ceaf5815be070 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0xcd30346281d728bb08a85f4e36adccdd3c443300fa74aaefc7a4ee83744b4f49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? | 66,807,237 | 66,807,237 |
c8db2f7e320863b37a56d2a821151a8364df6706 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0xf1e8d58513d652e1248d2da60d3b35a684362f15a4e9bcd90660ddfd044b16cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | which-3rd-party-candidate-wins-most-votes | Will RFK Jr. get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? | 66,807,237 | 66,807,237 |
de6d331088c3f8a76ca88cbb5be499bf757dbda8 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x266221efb4cd5a6d47bcec13ab69766561d334b37cf1ac17ec4c7da0a60ff3b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | yes | 1 | lal-rso-rea-2025-09-13 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13? | 77,637,830 | 77,637,830 |
efe2d45bda9d42697901bc7e6455dd907c59c85e | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x315bc10cea2926ed706b38c329481c7c7cb341e8aff417019c736347734c5c8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | 77,637,830 | 77,637,830 |
036bf2d081d6a4cd04cbd0899709cd8c2315064e | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x0307106f98a2c6fe792df476d4c3be85779ec52c8e4ed21d68677c44448228ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | uef-isl-fra-2025-10-13 | Will Iceland win on 2025-10-13? | 78,675,688 | 78,675,688 |
4ae666bb493c905c0925fb4d11fa2c72ba52cbfb | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x28f7d60ec393a41e36519e17ad542c60e0312f7acff711b0df6b609b5112905c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-10-13? | 78,675,688 | 78,675,688 |
2312f4ca88da1b87780ad129ab3feeeb637180dc | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x4356837cec1e18e58e6bd079f64a055b0aad71a854035209ef1a0b2a3e8c8222 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | uef-slv-che-2025-10-13 | Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-13? | 78,675,688 | 78,675,688 |
00bce3f7ec61867dedc14473a520f81338b59ef4 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x8ca1944bb82dca481489e2a8936c3e389a347461d9211ddab03d9280880e7597 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | yes | 1 | uef-and-ser-2025-10-14 | Will Serbia win on 2025-10-14? | 78,675,688 | 78,675,688 |
da936097715cd5498c1a7e28fb0e834a6b1f3090 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0xe4f64043b6d86c1f9c2a8f8a2c0e8a2273f07a47a8b130c6ae3330fc352b7721 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | uef-wal-bel-2025-10-13 | Will Wales win on 2025-10-13? | 78,675,688 | 78,675,688 |
b313c80c28cd9c600e2a4bc02b1ca327fed5fdb6 | 0x1aef24952a7a52eb86b4600a42b2416da891f1ff | 0x121191378e99c910e533a62515041547c4d18ccf6d50178470caadf4bb38c6d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad? | Event: europa-league-real-sociedad-vs-anderlecht | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha ... | no | 1 | bun-uni-bay-2025-11-08 | Will Union Berlin win on 2025-11-08? | 79,876,099 | 79,876,099 |
6fdb8e47e27c0f6a4a521d8b1e8225856df77fd9 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x47f5d478a6edf673d7181446885970afc17ecffc9e7afdf4e25b3fc486b29120 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET?
Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | 72,859,493 | 72,859,493 |
2f2a5d4b46b3982889cf3798b2c412d9398dd023 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xf9425f69ce7fbde7ee54887ea24b164d2d4c06b594c4d4f94b1921cd79321b19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?
Event: next-president-of-south-korea
Predict the user's choic... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | 73,106,021 | 73,106,021 |
4365a5ec6aae703cc2254079089ab9abd89e8cab | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x3cab539b7797b6b81369042cfb98af27143893385edd3332f0b9442b4f32aefe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Tar... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? | 73,106,022 | 73,106,022 |
affd6d20e47ff1775cfdcc51242523052fe589c7 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x40385275efa741161b1a8378e26819607298662d7f7bfb5485d4331ece8d0fb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | 73,106,022 | 73,106,022 |
dd5e181cb288003cdf23443ac2338b953d23fd13 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x0c6c5cb8db69bd0927e05bf415f57fa37391951396cdba1f1b6a95e8b8a03f1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | 74,204,636 | 74,204,636 |
4916ae140b4f0738e3302b654a8d67c3f74b7a16 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x185b61c0aaba39c333756f39ac4f0ad38adc0e3540d70ea2b4f313deab4c878f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | 74,644,920 | 74,644,920 |
3c6d1419a092d42c1854d59d54457999a40c96ea | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x0b7d7e34de7f7ebabc78f7d97728239d0287c52bb065e3ea5f67a1788721ce5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | 74,690,355 | 74,690,355 |
6f1a1c6f84c8df00e49ce8dce0b0e8a53efc112b | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x2d0b4466cb89101b9f895b691887f25f8133113407cf5e03888de298fbed5e1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | shelton | 0.006616 | atp-toronto-cobolli-vs-shelton | ATP Toronto – Cobolli vs. Shelton | 74,769,626 | 74,770,179 |
036f8a94604711aeb79742438961a0913e962c85 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xb4b9fe40d86257ac567c507ce84835706a54d450f945502cafb314778ff54c9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | tennis-atp-toronto-winner-477 | Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? | 74,776,096 | 74,776,096 |
95a9970a079dda669e1bb7428db1b92cd2ca7a7a | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x402727a58c0a0b50031d938aa9596109a94293ef91c8371db16ee68ca15bd1d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | tennis-atp-washington-dc-winner | Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2025 ATP Washington tournament? | 74,897,503 | 74,897,503 |
c3fd5ea293761c449ad84ee45244c00fc601d501 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xb48e395229e8fb041528d3aef56f2aeced8f6d9edf532d1cd043fbf62d95b2af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Will GPT-5 be released on August 15 or later? | 74,993,071 | 74,993,071 |
4feaf2fe7cca35418958a26eb47fa52dc09de060 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xbe3655f45ebc2b81d749b88b8f5032227f064b11b50f131d07ef3740d8d77dc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 0.999747 | what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? | 74,993,071 | 74,993,071 |
69d315d8e16e46e1b417748a14138bc675a8471f | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xf714bdd9e862cea81a5b42e432fe45d9b3f80b0973061a14a58db1af7ec7628a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | fa-community-shield-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-536 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-10? | 75,047,429 | 75,047,429 |
f08f9344593eac1184ca605982b59071a8ea750c | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x736de7d6e9162fa77ed9963e75ae57e8e27ba78c0ad08221dab71cf7ef675f90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | uefa-super-cup-final-psg-vs-tottenham-575 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-13? | 75,180,259 | 75,180,259 |
33ed234475f1f5c57e08e2e17c2bc8f4e24c811c | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x37fcf828abb63fd986423db5829bd2d79b4c1b6c2380839d5ae0b067c8542553 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Will Liverpool vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | 75,276,324 | 75,276,324 |
b2db15dc46a1ff46b38c87c6b5aef6b7ea3d6e97 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x148abdb546ce4abf102625b31e8ff6f55f3e84c389dafd078a5054231a463378 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | 75,298,400 | 75,298,400 |
84a6b23c4f5ecd3f24b8f03bcfbf73bd2b906ff7 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x3af58f23c63082c38178b17e5b634d61b9170fa3aa2a54e15ca914c0b96a66b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-08-16? | 75,298,400 | 75,298,400 |
2e071162fd5fab2eba02a34ddce70e52a58a7730 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x4aa6ba20cdb4db38011d097ee7bad1abf5cae5efbc38c630b8d4a64d872af50f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | 75,298,400 | 75,298,400 |
4d2b9359464a63f60180522605822df6b6055e4f | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x739323baf61bec4e179617c127c2508d3da6928f111eb3108fc193b14cee8ae7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16 | Will Wolves win on 2025-08-16? | 75,298,400 | 75,298,400 |
f94ac64d7040e91d77324ac7bf04bb3884460bb2 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xe6717d50d3bd162c6346543f25aa484e8ebe7d158ec49d72523f51790d8d5eca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Will Mallorca win on 2025-08-16? | 75,298,400 | 75,298,400 |
a87070d62f90b8951ad2b27ca82aed0620b71181 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x15c9906c68055ec7c32b3c86b7b20b3ea9d07981c6cd2b286d271a4e6c8943d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | cs2-blast-bounty-2025-season-2-finals | Will Spirit win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? | 75,340,788 | 75,340,788 |
36e42605a03d4b6625609d0435ba86d9f0454531 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x9cca0cd4d6c510986659a750acddf47e39713c08866f7a3c63c8dd5bdc9a5065 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | 75,340,788 | 75,340,788 |
5ba102c47dc0fa55d50d634b13765fdf9600efb1 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xb372aacbb360873391c3961bc4a4b45920aa7100c9f09a86043849da8e3c568d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | fl1-nan-psg-2025-08-17 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-17? | 75,340,788 | 75,340,788 |
9f51d6543f0ac2ec244649dba185e58a9fdc3d44 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xeaf726ca496d920bde5f7a24281215ed4e0d0b2e8f7db9a6dfc1523b57cb1fa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | lal-bil-sev-2025-08-17 | Will Sevilla win on 2025-08-17? | 75,340,788 | 75,340,788 |
b4dadec07b7cfa439cdb2cc841dd2324b0c58171 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x08853a5a5195ec3b86c4f06aa5d28f300aa8aee62461aaec8ac3f702148ad37d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Will West Ham win on 2025-08-22? | 75,541,407 | 75,541,407 |
4bb854f6a060d3e38a2e70c3e37f2d8f3f459b9b | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xe5db53bb45338e2f20949af7e5ddc04e094c33cb91fda6fb9ebbdf44fc1174a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | 75,541,407 | 75,541,407 |
847186ff54e7569fcd1af1f6aa222975d5a8f07a | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xf4ae9ea1c9966e06b033b5d80a74e0999d4a405074405ea2526c40acc395ee2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | esports-world-cup-cs2 | Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | 75,604,850 | 75,604,850 |
7f3080a8f5c0f9e9acb2434e1b2cb3dfe8763118 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x14d016fbe336c15c3bdc0f89c6e54fb7213bff9314b4dd65921db6bdf79c9736 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-17? | 75,636,273 | 75,636,273 |
03c8061637788dbd1adb73c56864ebc300aa8cb8 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x6890f39e0bb7f48985442a969a9a3e08650cb457e6a3098bdc9229af24a9e61e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-17? | 75,636,273 | 75,636,273 |
31ce8a3d2f32c245f5137c98252f32ad0d66c48f | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xa9edc131663a8ccbb5262e8be1511780dc6b2e976bdf72990876bffe2a63e0f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | lal-bil-sev-2025-08-17 | Will Athletic Club vs. Sevilla end in a draw? | 75,636,273 | 75,636,273 |
4d8e334dc4eab68736f87f1c7e89388b31cb6e01 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xed5f4e1cd9b239dba49f27bf7c822a36d08681438cc14f224fecd1def79d8d54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | epl-che-cry-2025-08-17 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? | 75,636,273 | 75,636,273 |
5e81bd40139044e763cc244420a3782f47755286 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xfac7fd0e53395dbfb6ca7b26db9715413308039d38a57bb29d2de0dbad78bf24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | 75,636,273 | 75,636,273 |
144e22c65bbd5d4556d0cc18115e7890935fb49f | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x7e39eee4c0ca2f25881d449fae3ce480c3f55e06a3e473c07fa67918815fd2d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | C... | yes | 1 | ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26 | Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? | 75,711,825 | 75,711,825 |
de3de5776a0ddb1c155ac642a41fd517070c66ca | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x9c0edd2f37a95a9bb8d4679d7b90392cfd85e67d304375c9bf40a13498a4d0d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-league-of-legend... | no | 1 | ucl-sgr-bod-2025-08-26 | Will Sturm Graz win on 2025-08-26? | 75,711,825 | 75,711,825 |
c412bfdd8619800f9ef3314c72658558361d7eb9 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x14402dc8dc30d1514d66a7e5bdcb111acc423e08ba6deca7f09f532633da843a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | 2025-us-open-winner-w | Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? | 76,147,466 | 76,147,466 |
ac01b102a589c04373a33119c96b9de954a99b46 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x5adf02e46fa31e895d62f931978ffe3b111cb267437244788a4a6f7b743d8d9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ATP Toronto... | yes | 1 | cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | 76,266,224 | 76,266,224 |
094ec919276a281f84241f0e58f42762ab1730c7 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xf148363b1d27ca84143da1a4d402ebc570315993fd7a59fdbdb797c77dcdb50f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: ATP Toronto – Cobolli vs. Shelton | Event: atp-toronto-cobolli-vs-shelton | Choice: shelton | Confidence: 0.006615926985905729
3. Question: Will Flav... | yes | 1 | fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | 76,380,763 | 76,380,763 |
81ed7608212aa9a0ee17b87b8cdcd719644938bd | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x411e4d4738f45f0ce40dd64e802e0c8ec4028124bd8584f5524120e28465f3db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: ATP Toronto – Cobolli vs. Shelton | Event: atp-toronto-cobolli-vs-shelton | Choice: shelton | Confidence: 0.006615926985905729
2. Question: Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-toronto-winner-477 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alejand... | no | 1 | bun-b04-ein-2025-09-12 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-12? | 76,403,482 | 76,403,482 |
6e5c3e814aa9f8f70825a1a054203995913548bd | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x266221efb4cd5a6d47bcec13ab69766561d334b37cf1ac17ec4c7da0a60ff3b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-toronto-winner-477 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2025 ATP Washington tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-washington-dc-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | lal-rso-rea-2025-09-13 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13? | 76,420,678 | 76,420,678 |
e56e988ecee32aef2760bde7c9370b7e05695de0 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x56848d4be72f57f7b44a1100a3c384444b5c4b39528827f112ad2465a35f3e94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2025 ATP Washington tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-washington-dc-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 15 or later? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-not-2025-09-13 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? | 76,420,678 | 76,420,678 |
823068c221184d3c8ebda2882f98aaeddfdec69c | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x8709b3fa1f50046fd9000df7ade47a09d0c11bea8979270b24b80671f4fc9292 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 15 or later? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9997470548330255
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace... | yes | 1 | fl1-ogc-nan-2025-09-13 | Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-13? | 76,420,678 | 76,420,678 |
41a623554bd69b40bedec0bd9e02ac9686fecc70 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xafff3c833567330e7d948f236447728153805f6b4f0879285c3569b6459f6bf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9997470548330255
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-10? | Event: fa-community-shield-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-536 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Totte... | yes | 1 | epl-new-wol-2025-09-13 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-13? | 76,420,678 | 76,420,678 |
2a19e636de3714a1d5237e9a695b75d7dcd2bdd2 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x315bc10cea2926ed706b38c329481c7c7cb341e8aff417019c736347734c5c8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-10? | Event: fa-community-shield-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-536 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-13? | Event: uefa-super-cup-final-psg-vs-tottenham-575 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool vs. B... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | 76,459,375 | 76,459,375 |
880e0d069e2441d28f92ab892dacfa17ecff3156 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x7a269da637483c1a8bd65816604de87592db82baa7934e63d6917c1b168764af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-13? | Event: uefa-super-cup-final-psg-vs-tottenham-575 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event... | yes | 1 | dota-2-the-international-2025 | Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? | 76,459,375 | 76,459,375 |
dcb0a04dc5be0c7033efcb48874401b73656e798 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xa6810873af2eeac42bc2445db3e505d00fa738789b519da49e1f24194924c5f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-202... | yes | 1 | 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | 76,459,375 | 76,459,375 |
56a940798c7decac83fda00435d0e51b4b3e1c4c | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x6131be08cf78a449afe4429997b01e794d23c699a45e5fa5479bdc1619f1d6a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Cho... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-sun-2025-09-13 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-13? | 76,495,674 | 76,495,674 |
8b104f0573c7c095c761ceac0280ca27ec83d5a2 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x684b69916037f29c02cd6ce4acaae23d155951bfa24668d563216a7386b62317 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16 | Choice... | yes | 1 | 2025-eurobasket-mvp | Will Alperen Şengün win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP? | 76,495,674 | 76,495,674 |
93fef89e0a7fbe9a6282b3829a9c2579bcea3a54 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xafcb290d0c1866372d6519db936b6fd76db3b6eb71fd0fc9cb6a6531dd0cee07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-che-2025-09-13 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13? | 76,495,674 | 76,495,674 |
f01e368f5c2303c9dcd82219d7bbf5f6c3f1f00c | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x2dcfcb6d3ab1d92abff687f45efd592fe806cb57bac25834c8ec07f9135e1a80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spirit win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-b... | no | 1 | lal-esp-mal-2025-09-15 | Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-15? | 76,498,871 | 76,498,871 |
53bfd547c379739b6ded0ae291af6a99b7a88854 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xc57c48ea08192107f7981b041ba115663b3d14935ea4315337a5e64351ddfa5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-bounty-2025-season-2-finals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | 76,535,808 | 76,535,808 |
160f257e060833dd0f1c4e33d27aeb40fb6ba9b0 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x8c5927af2b98879999712a217d1ff65d34c13ebadcb619007e4852ea76a7845c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spirit win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-bounty-2025-season-2-finals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain F... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | 76,539,372 | 76,539,372 |
34c50e744e3c631cbce27cfe5716870be6b9dc22 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xa95bda98964f533dafdeee3ad0788cffaf3b1f12ce07bfa37265c940e30696ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-17? | Event: fl1-nan-psg-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sevilla win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-bil-se... | yes | 1 | fl1-lyo-ang-2025-09-19 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-09-19? | 76,661,607 | 76,661,607 |
35347fda316894cf20c439f8451953b96794b173 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xf72fdbbd1844ae6d1d9cef8a0a7795a3b46582fb2fe784c998e8cfa21a5287e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-17? | Event: fl1-nan-psg-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sevilla win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-bil-sev-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08... | no | 1 | ere-spa-twe-2025-09-19 | Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-09-19? | 76,661,607 | 76,661,607 |
6966cdddc0366a82ce2783dda28f9c4a26c2a9ad | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x09d62daf905d6456b42c6300afb3b1bf40e13281bfe41a5134aa407d68c5ceb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sevilla win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-bil-sev-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-rso-2025-09-19 | Will Real Betis vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? | 76,680,176 | 76,680,176 |
327b242591352f5af04824ea9cd7e0d63b7a7c18 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x7bdfa2d7ae3b82c5e4a06827cb4903c2d2eeeb0fc9a0c433db26e3ea79791c6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: es... | no | 1 | bun-stu-pau-2025-09-19 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19? | 76,680,176 | 76,680,176 |
eb86022fee7e21f2bf65db839babb3c0deb334a7 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xfefaa14ee813fd9606e1bc90e4b1ba8c584de2647604cac193765c50547d343e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-17? | Ev... | no | 1 | ucl-spo-kay-2025-09-18 | Will Sporting CP win on 2025-09-18? | 76,680,176 | 76,680,176 |
87eb8308c3180d93ee1178f5130c2ea3340c529d | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x3f49c6df2966ab5999292d9dd4587aaae899e221459fdc0f186306bf5063ea9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-17? | E... | no | 1 | sea-ver-juv-2025-09-20 | Will Verona win on 2025-09-20? | 76,701,461 | 76,701,461 |
d2a90ba944ebe1559f61f32e011ed6ae35a045bd | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xbfb60c899c3f90c0db94aeabf0b437f004d8a7e059da5c0def434ee7b3c58b0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Athletic Club vs. Sevilla end in a draw? | Event: lal-bil-sev-... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? | 76,706,319 | 76,706,319 |
e79e5ef0d0f06ba3e72573bd3f141e6ed3ee917d | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xcedd04b5c8e1b468ed848ecbe28ba4df1753b880ac76d67b053141b70656bac2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Athletic Club vs. Sevilla end in a draw? | Event: lal-bil-sev-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-che-cry-2025-08-... | yes | 1 | fissure-playground-2 | Will Team Falcons win FISSURE Playground 2? | 76,706,319 | 76,706,319 |
b64c16295e66d6c78b171a32cc1f436e1514e2cd | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xea82f433bc23bb91d664058aab2ff9ce8bdf1164ebe4a42963d9f0bceac6c0a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club vs. Sevilla end in a draw? | Event: lal-bil-sev-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-che-cry-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-not-2025-09-20 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-20? | 76,706,319 | 76,706,319 |
20402dcdce83fdbb27f3b46015c5f5bbdaa91bc5 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xf25b3a43d717e2b6cc164231359867d845b36be4263458d75155744f649d5bfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-che-cry-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | sea-nap-pis-2025-09-22 | Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? | 76,782,552 | 76,782,552 |
7ea4c6ce2e6f34789212ab48a52b32ef3ea370f4 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x8095b21ecc172779d0ed0c3aa0d24b90d866db0ea16fe94c536c769218086b3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sturm Graz win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-sgr-bod-2025-08-26 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | fl1-olm-psg-2025-09-21 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-21? | 76,783,686 | 76,783,686 |
c3dfbd229117ca5a4d3db4773b42af25be5bb54f | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x6de5bb4c73363cb7ca472f165ab5c3ec7fff69ce5ea74950846730c69e3046dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sturm Graz win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-sgr-bod-2025-08-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w... | no | 1 | mex-gua-nec-2025-09-23 | Will Club Necaxa win on 2025-09-23? | 76,833,718 | 76,833,718 |
470261d8870aa2f191ff48465e37732cc187a901 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xba70eea2357da4c3c55048403973ab0fe3fb1b681cce5c876b073ce1d95feb5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-sgr-bod-2025-08-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Eve... | no | 1 | mex-leo-maz-2025-09-23 | Will Mazatlán FC win on 2025-09-23? | 76,836,801 | 76,836,801 |
7befc5247bc53f355db4b93936912dd2239cb753 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x88248a0e3411b4c09ed3237ab5484584cc4a4b1d7e0dfa6d85a8ff6eea9cb6e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on ... | yes | 1 | mex-leo-maz-2025-09-23 | Will Club León FC vs. Mazatlán FC end in a draw? | 76,837,173 | 76,837,173 |
0c99af20b602e84fc988b584bce087925639659b | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x31954a1af3e9d669dd2e0cb11225c32a2ba0412a342091b483fff5d565dceb7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 20... | no | 1 | uel-mid-stuk-2025-09-24 | Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2025-09-24? | 76,863,282 | 76,863,282 |
ceb8389ab0d673843826f57bac5eef2309fa7333 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x6b87db6f7d92301ffd91a6ee9b54c7fe1201baf4e33dcd33ac1957e322d208a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-12? | Event: bun-b04-ein-2025-09-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-rso... | no | 1 | mex-tig-atl-2025-09-24 | Will Atlas FC win on 2025-09-24? | 76,873,908 | 76,873,908 |
03ab12784d1be479ae8ca556afa2f6552990f7df | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x98b4377b9ea2593da69a38b9ef6e8d81a3dbe814ef9b939534f42060b5fe4af6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-12? | Event: bun-b04-ein-2025-09-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-rso-rea-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ars-not-2025-09-13... | no | 1 | mls-vwh-por-2025-09-24 | Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-09-24? | 76,876,500 | 76,876,500 |
882da5133e945bc764ab85bf60f7977b19899998 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xfe9bc363f7bfe187b52d4b798b008f66cc2e2eaccc5a6d13cd8ac2d217b2c113 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-rso-rea-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ars-not-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-13? | Event: fl1-ogc-nan-2025-09-13 | Choi... | no | 1 | uel-utr-lyo-2025-09-25 | Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-09-25? | 76,903,684 | 76,903,684 |
0265ca5fd3a99fd6494415159fd87526079a5db8 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xa7b5365bf0f763b3a9f5a4bfa2c6c1a1e3ca39721570fa249eb3bc40d74703eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ars-not-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-13? | Event: fl1-ogc-nan-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-new-wol-2025-09-13 | Choice... | no | 1 | uel-ran-gkn-2025-09-25 | Will Rangers win on 2025-09-25? | 76,904,658 | 76,904,658 |
f53747922a7de95490af23ae573d76f7ece5e516 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x42141f61abd5fa398f17b9824837765ff8b93f07515b4591e945a08eacd1fe9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-13? | Event: fl1-ogc-nan-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-new-wol-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Choi... | no | 1 | rus-kss-din-2025-09-26 | Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara win on 2025-09-26? | 76,944,264 | 76,944,264 |
de88209517e7f315a055739989d147d17cbb151e | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x825de83eab7b2146eeeac21b7f3299e3517e34536168fb6f359197763c3998d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-new-wol-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-... | yes | 1 | tur-ala-gal-2025-09-26 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-09-26? | 76,944,264 | 76,944,264 |
eb81f599e0e0ebad1acc26af557e395be527282c | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xdb4c9be8df4f83ccfce2c59e6aa17357324a0bead6b4f154aa562c701f521192 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Cham... | no | 1 | lal-gir-esp-2025-09-26 | Will Girona win on 2025-09-26? | 76,944,264 | 76,944,264 |
9e4d0a77c05a6311564177f77d383132f361fa58 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x806db4ef536678fab5390d642d965e6b446dd2d646cfa94f8218f2e900a32b6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crysta... | no | 1 | epl-che-bri-2025-09-27 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-27? | 76,987,408 | 76,987,408 |
8cd141086e641edab79f59e4b2aa49356eb9ec27 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x84fc03261c1854035d1da53f8b7a688514d6c7a52b20c0f07839e8288bbab86d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-cry-sun-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alperen Şengün win the 2025 Eur... | no | 1 | bun-wol-lei-2025-09-27 | Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-27? | 76,987,408 | 76,987,408 |
22f28c2e8ffd36cac13b08b721bdf2a2e61611f6 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x88857ba36ec360abf8216ed9c43ca8d9b7a39791163d14c3471a9e32d0cd24ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-cry-sun-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alperen Şengün win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-bre-che-2... | no | 1 | epl-not-sun-2025-09-27 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-27? | 76,987,408 | 76,987,408 |
79e2ba11618efc666d51151f8ae327e6afc61dfb | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x966b064435ec900fd533eee091649a418becb436d1b2af390846bb222ca7a97c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alperen Şengün win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-bre-che-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-15? | Event: lal-esp-mal-2025-09... | no | 1 | epl-lee-bou-2025-09-27 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-09-27? | 76,987,408 | 76,987,408 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.