sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1849426576f47e7a3b17cac4e15fa364b8b731d4 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xea9f7dfb799ab01927c9327decdea35ec79a3031380a73068909e9413b189f4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-bre-che-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-15? | Event: lal-esp-mal-2025-09-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Choice: y... | no | 1 | mex-pue-gua-2025-09-26 | Will Club Puebla win on 2025-09-26? | 76,991,786 | 76,991,786 |
7d8cd6cf7de4ab511512c87bdbe4bb664027bd99 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x259182a4a8da9964b26f38cc157127e7a345cc55e0daa9b0604326a8aee8de9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-15? | Event: lal-esp-mal-2025-09-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choic... | yes | 1 | epl-sun-ast-2025-09-21 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-09-21? | 77,010,112 | 77,010,112 |
dd3e4e95ee6b284d137016704841e73201b00856 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x6cf3987128ef2424eefe80ade1ca390a88d4d1f08ae5d970fbf4d4179cce6ce1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-09-19? | Event: fl1-lyo-ang-2025-09... | yes | 1 | malawi-presidential-election-981 | Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | 77,010,112 | 77,010,112 |
d27ebf4550322e8c00ae5c791d0f4d44e364e005 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x77d83f1b9f503e105fd23692717fa12a434b4c2f8ba594ebaa0dc61543d05cbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-09-19? | Event: fl1-lyo-ang-2025-09-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-09-19? | Event: ere-spa-tw... | yes | 1 | sea-int-sas-2025-09-21 | Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-09-21? | 77,010,112 | 77,010,112 |
0cfe5f7efdf5f3ed3beaffdf95948a39fd3a3955 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x9b47e417feb564794b02f5de77bdc51c31600841e7d4aab3108a45193cee589c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-09-19? | Event: fl1-lyo-ang-2025-09-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-09-19? | Event: ere-spa-twe-2025-09-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-new-2025-09-21 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-09-21? | 77,010,112 | 77,010,112 |
ef77d18e0b0be293fed97d05dcadfb6aab286dec | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xd1c22676bbae4bbe809d8a561b6e3010d1717bf7fc059d9cbe6d3e74597a540f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-09-19? | Event: ere-spa-twe-2025-09-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? | Event: lal-bet-rso-2025-09-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | 77,010,112 | 77,010,112 |
b4d6e8d5d0e60e7bbd908cd1b9fd0a2aa1d81f18 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x44d4ca6460ef020fef9e4ec713284bd10a3eb68caf6c801eacd63e69acf7dd03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Betis vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? | Event: lal-bet-rso-2025-09-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19? | Event: bun-stu-pau-2025-09-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sporting CP win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-spo-... | yes | 1 | uel-ran-gkn-2025-09-25 | Will Rangers vs. KRC Genk end in a draw? | 77,010,113 | 77,010,113 |
c4948de30e0df414497bf944773d44778744f089 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x5789dc57a0c76e679b0250eb0e2e920c40d87db1580dfdc32f563cc5b74a2639 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19? | Event: bun-stu-pau-2025-09-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sporting CP win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-spo-kay-2025-09-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Verona win on 2025-09-20? | Event: sea-ver-juv-2025-09-20 | Ch... | yes | 1 | uel-utr-lyo-2025-09-25 | Will FC Utrecht vs. Lyon end in a draw? | 77,010,113 | 77,010,113 |
40132ee74ce02496ea19a896639d908f3c1bff8d | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xe4e59f2be00079f32d890b0d8822cca34affd694065f1b82f5d6bde503919970 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sporting CP win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-spo-kay-2025-09-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Verona win on 2025-09-20? | Event: sea-ver-juv-2025-09-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | mls-lag-fcc-2025-09-20 | Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2025-09-20? | 77,010,113 | 77,010,113 |
6141594210d1e4691dcdeb70b7231c15a0217d57 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x1bf7c30ba20add13f88f9fb4cfa01ca79d3f1b4abb6cf8f2fb60cbf81010a49f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Verona win on 2025-09-20? | Event: sea-ver-juv-2025-09-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win FISSURE Playground 2? | Event: fissure-playground-2 | C... | no | 1 | epl-new-ars-2025-09-28 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-28? | 77,020,575 | 77,020,575 |
c3374bdc290141a676c72775cbc83c5df7423d86 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x3bb534501bea9a5799c7e56e9addfb99b91586e8eec663480f359f0804913bb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Team Falcons win FISSURE Playground 2? | Event: fissure-playground-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-bur-not-2025-09-2... | no | 1 | lal-ray-sev-2025-09-28 | Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-28? | 77,020,575 | 77,020,575 |
6842947cd1b35766ef9b4fa2aa161a2820c1068c | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0x5ccdf2f2bf8f9d51d20c4933f8bdec15feea18384fe39cfc34fc3a7e8ab7eab0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Team Falcons win FISSURE Playground 2? | Event: fissure-playground-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-bur-not-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? | Event: sea-nap-pis-2025-09-22... | no | 1 | epl-ast-ful-2025-09-28 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28? | 77,021,437 | 77,021,437 |
94b38b6956081fb5b56882f15f3b123234be4c62 | 0x1b177b260ca347097712c98ce91266c1c5e61713 | 0xd3d6a8638c0db436a552b63c7c9525ff9bb4eadcff31f916f965f4750ec16f94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-bur-not-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? | Event: sea-nap-pis-2025-09-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-21? | Event: fl1-olm-psg-2025-... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-ful-2025-09-28 | Will Fulham win on 2025-09-28? | 77,021,437 | 77,021,437 |
f51a814c03cde8b2b01c477c16266e86d87c8308 | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x31af31894a2b165476162cac942ae00ce521683397ee3218e1120446838115fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28?
Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | 75,775,634 | 75,775,634 |
d85370e834a83ba2f5a3552689cac23358ea5e4f | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x11e9d25a1b19fc96f60695c2c30394afca7bdae97a3c2beaa503db1b831d1124 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET?
Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the targ... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | 75,983,020 | 75,983,020 |
e9af5195c735fee399af6d57dde8e190261b0240 | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x1c945450c5a71fe25fccf66d0faffe91594e02d8f7e8569def136f18cf2738f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-2-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on September 2 at 4PM ET? | 75,983,020 | 75,983,020 |
961ac2cd0a9f63839c80bacc568f4c6b62049f05 | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x8fc06e702620b922a9769c3b0e17cd9395c45f8f04f31e8c89f2d49c4f041d74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-2-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on September 2 at 4PM ET? | 75,983,020 | 75,983,020 |
28953393085f6605274171789aab436097af63aa | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x8d2cd1c6151672ae63974a24c1a827f0b858cef7b246e563686c12ef95c468f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-september-3 | Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $215 on September 3? | 76,123,422 | 76,123,422 |
24cc0ac47ac5383f07023fe3e6c2eb7fdcb5b4a5 | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0xcc1d878dcc5757fb36476c5e024c02750f7977e4a3988c6718b89fd114b6075f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | no | 1 | fncs-2025-global-championship | Will Team Queasy win the FNCS 2025 Global Championship? | 76,183,069 | 76,183,069 |
ae8ffd9a8db2471307d81142c7f242dfaa8622ee | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x09d62daf905d6456b42c6300afb3b1bf40e13281bfe41a5134aa407d68c5ceb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | no | 1 | lal-bet-rso-2025-09-19 | Will Real Betis vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? | 76,660,790 | 76,660,790 |
ae14556e3efb47f987297358aaecb6cb4854a35e | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x12f3942711b5ae2f1940c0132ec9181616013bec10a96438928aa8ea29647fae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | yes | 1 | tur-goz-bes-2025-09-19 | Will Göztepe SK win on 2025-09-19? | 76,660,790 | 76,660,790 |
20765175175b493c13dcbabfb268474a02b5593d | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x48b7647ef7c177b10bc89e9e3e4a06a44780f564ddba2b28b6a7c3e9a51e1317 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | no | 1 | fl1-lyo-ang-2025-09-19 | Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Angers SCO end in a draw? | 76,660,790 | 76,660,790 |
e42a4a4827b67460b75a783071f288a0b2f4fc72 | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0xa95bda98964f533dafdeee3ad0788cffaf3b1f12ce07bfa37265c940e30696ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | yes | 1 | fl1-lyo-ang-2025-09-19 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-09-19? | 76,660,790 | 76,660,790 |
9defa1d86ede8aea1b4c748e6d30355d5e108cf8 | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0xfe9de6a0e94629a3ae89402da3d97897f5af8db67d63eada0a21ad8a54cc7018 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | no | 1 | fl1-lyo-ang-2025-09-19 | Will Angers SCO win on 2025-09-19? | 76,660,790 | 76,660,790 |
66907629b6bcdcc1571b53b07c14496672d8a4e0 | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x08144b2cb16d11a7654febda8ba82a1353f44852a4fe07d27616f783ca92a4ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | no | 1 | lal-bet-rso-2025-09-19 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-19? | 76,662,416 | 76,662,416 |
471f8095cc1ea95e485fe1b63f5a04b88cbd6d52 | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x2ceedac006f31e1c1a6db13d820a2c3a8135556d8a8b7b202f0de0868c71fb27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | yes | 1 | mex-nec-pue-2025-09-19 | Will Club Necaxa win on 2025-09-19? | 76,677,253 | 76,677,253 |
1c44d17ce670f311f27f3f9ef7c45ce91281cf5f | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x5d538f9722943ad5cce6962ea63fc1053e10462b0cca99d6e8e3e3a65e39edda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | yes | 1 | sea-ver-juv-2025-09-20 | Will Juventus win on 2025-09-20? | 76,701,109 | 76,701,109 |
f808bec9c6cf4396daa6535615bf112fe801eb0c | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x6f18d3500f82e6e1918d73e59e6a03c752621ff16cadd028f95b126ad19f1b39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | no | 1 | epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-20? | 76,701,109 | 76,701,109 |
ef2ab86cc4e7518c2e981508f4e0ff1d3c49cf8b | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0xbfb60c899c3f90c0db94aeabf0b437f004d8a7e059da5c0def434ee7b3c58b0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? | 76,701,109 | 76,701,109 |
009c6d4682ff34e6cd048ad9c430ee33f065c30b | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x00a7cb9092ac458b5be2bc47c5ecf506a7e6e024cb76aa83581aa0d1beefe674 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | yes | 1 | bun-lei-koe-2025-09-20 | Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-20? | 76,701,115 | 76,701,115 |
7f15ef148e0ccc468b002172907abc6c88c5d2b6 | 0x1b2277a6e338a008ee9cd7754b4cf389fdfe1d59 | 0x262da56221882bfad212e93864104e6a010325665c3da417daedc574913c3bd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? | 76,701,115 | 76,701,115 |
a21e39aafe44c5c603d42ae350d327492f75e755 | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0x9489fba6c36a01281916a273db24e169c6a0687d5ce5fce7ef6fe39165697cbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend?
Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | 62,863,535 | 62,863,535 |
53ee91a3996d518f64ff8984e21e37beb5adc497 | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0x2112c3669135da79d0721a748ada35ad29c1df67bfc53a3939c196cb740d6f87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Greece beat England?
Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece
Predict the user's choice and confidence ... | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Will Greece beat England? | 63,074,826 | 63,074,826 |
3d999c1121868ddb0b528814cdcd48451a50c2dd | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0x244a7db1a60ab3dd31ec36689d6774c15ecf5831f7a0640664b8715896fbc233 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Questi... | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-israel-vs-france | Will Israel beat France? | 63,074,826 | 63,074,826 |
0c3208c4bdf2dfdf65ff06fe05812b7dd4db2e82 | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0x40e1fb4b5b0e85573ccc952144fd3613399e97cf4c89b59c26ce9e48787cfa82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | no | 1 | mexican-grand-prix-winner | Will another driver win the Mexico City Grand Prix? | 63,593,246 | 63,593,246 |
b8bbff5ed5f540ee83b88046b936c8d2f864ce76 | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0x67e946751c16efcb5d14f463fceb2816dbc53884c723661f15d336c97ce55da8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-election | Will the Conservatives win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | 63,915,532 | 63,915,532 |
fe04ccc47154c9894ee9c33fa91474a02281d880 | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0xa88a783b0926a90c5e0a3e6543293570c16f620392f12bfc08dd194c614e7e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | no | 1 | trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time | Trump sentenced to between 12 and 23 months prison time? | 63,915,532 | 63,915,532 |
899a150a65f16652becace15565883e2583596fb | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0x5409a10c28f0699a8a464abdc9b07ab0a9335ff61d1a4f7e53f70b7e82fe5b45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-nov-4 | Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4? | 64,434,453 | 64,434,453 |
85c7598227ef90c5dfb2d105de783f7c197e95d9 | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0x8dfcce7f3514096505c314c4c75178994367ba21235f748e02c8a7e2ec54bddb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | no | 1 | ucl-celtic-vs-rb-leipzig | Will Celtic beat RB Leipzig? | 64,434,453 | 64,434,453 |
bb08e0c4778d4037595c4cdd8bfce93f45c8fff4 | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0x972520d8ed44dcd71fff95b44e2593750d0e44323a5ccd2ce4bbbc540427bce9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | no | 1 | michigan-presidential-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Michigan Presidential Election? | 64,434,453 | 64,434,453 |
07ece73036f0bf4f7de524e05c8d5e91eefd0622 | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0xab0132a0b89e43d95c2643ac835877c757849e9a64ebac3c9f0c4696db41a288 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? | 64,434,453 | 64,434,453 |
658a8f3d97a0d189a8b54630583e8ce780b42523 | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0x62dc4f475f72b31070bd00cee710a20ab6d5154ca7a9e9279c14634a6ec04a01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | no | 1 | nevada-margin-of-victory | Will the Republican candidate win Nevada by 2.0%-3.0%? | 65,029,682 | 65,029,682 |
120eb8618c68b9dc733f0d35d1dba3c03cf5a7eb | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0xc75d4d8fc275a1974bf54abfded0663ff32317313e4048f430b1bb1557a235e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Will trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | 65,311,737 | 65,311,737 |
edf61c5b652dc54902a0477046374f34cc7abae4 | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | no | 1 | when-will-gpt-5-be-announced | GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? | 66,454,188 | 66,454,188 |
e1b52ffec9f4645cae605afce7385998ca34702e | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0xaa69f9c948b8a162eb305285bf31a581868c23a289573889b27361726c213b64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will another movie gross most in 2024? | 66,454,188 | 66,454,188 |
766d8ac3de11ad53ca250eaa31e5e16c31f0986f | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0xae43e53d8516dd644c2b294c6fcdc8b345e905352672c7f6cf1ebfee127d9409 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | yes | 1 | which-state-will-kamala-win-by-the-largest-margin | Will Kamala Harris win Vermont by the largest margin? | 66,454,188 | 66,454,188 |
eccfffdc8756160f07dfe57b8ecb27d332f1da6a | 0x1b4d52ceedf642b3772d571cd1b95944627a8358 | 0xb09684e11fb40f40cfb2fec4a8e08fe2b021a82b0803756a90f04e1364efa94f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-greece | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | yes | 1 | ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | 66,454,188 | 66,454,188 |
c2a392167b9820f2ba84aa72bd325758dbc28421 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x626436e51a9b7486bf356594f29de0c729ae4e88b4c196e58d2eb9cc8d4105f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election?
Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale"... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | 63,745,326 | 63,745,326 |
64721e673034098f484de10a181e8e87490ded57 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x05a16ffcfaa6948233c1cc448f87acddf1ea144597b424739dd4a2e07f397b04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election?
Event: delaware-presidential-electio... | no | 1 | delaware-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | 64,081,223 | 64,081,223 |
9767fb0548bf7b35143d43fed42ca6fcd4eb37de | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x1d372482a1170a5591237fb8881b1cfe25a1caf69adf58035d406530eb39556d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | yes | 1 | hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | 64,081,223 | 64,081,223 |
9ad51c5b5d42d2f1b830899fb937ebecf26e1d26 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x24ace0c29dc2c801992ea6b7c795d3e7c4f2ad40343bc9f0becef694b2ef197f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | yes | 1 | california-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win California Presidential Election? | 64,081,223 | 64,081,223 |
a5c19a59f0737bb7c8a96a6cf753c845e2613928 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x325038359610a566c0963c9f0ea2ea33b2ddedf7808898c4ed4166787213f1b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | yes | 1 | trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time | Trump sentenced to no prison time? | 64,081,223 | 64,081,223 |
6c51351459c9a2817d70eaec0c6ee8457202ee18 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0xc84158739db6f15f33ad8518b509cd0688baa794209759e628bd025f01927b4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | trump-election-interference-trial-date | Will Trump election interference trial start in September or October? | 64,081,223 | 64,081,223 |
2764f48277b1896ec97ea4a997bd10cb7a1eed45 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0xfeaf2f554727a143c4c0973b62fd0fc34bec0fc8c5c2b6b4e7da9bbb5377e80a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | maine-presidential-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Maine Presidential Election? | 64,081,223 | 64,081,223 |
b2b898d822dc54f8778f660e2615e6bcf6fdef80 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x225c7a0e744a67ef6ca96826af5e983979a9f4929a47c882063f4bad91ba99a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | which-state-will-trump-win-by-the-largest-margin | Will Trump win North Dakota by the largest margin? | 64,914,112 | 64,914,112 |
30af454228b8a845f3f29d8d3d10a18d671c54f1 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x2d3aa2da6438696435176f7cb630bdf655a59dbb7f691a3d2ef256c271ff02b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | wicked-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Wicked' gross between $95-105m opening weekend? | 64,914,112 | 64,914,112 |
3967ea028735bdace81456f40a91ac0ae75e8f6a | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0xc951ae7c7cbb135bea112091e4430b9cb6e52c54438730bc0144aa3a9e4ec7ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | 2024-irish-general-election | Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | 65,262,775 | 65,262,775 |
d8dea3520e778f2247f5ccc799f8d3b3f79d0170 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x21689d1c243520bcaff1f0a9d7e45bd63da4f86fbb6a3aec93008e17d437d2c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | yes | 1 | which-state-will-trump-win-by-the-largest-margin | Will Trump win Wyoming by the largest margin? | 65,951,289 | 65,951,289 |
a2740d53ca39f71d56b9fdd868c58d7f270a6fa0 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x3189e493d87b09525eced3aaae9bb48a9460cef9aa7e6b1c4ed3c4c2df8ffe6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | 65,951,289 | 65,951,289 |
666d3692b04b0619d2de6e4dcaf0102d98fe83ef | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x3a5d8047acd8aa377956e65bd40bfafd47ff6d528559b22530fb3822bc1afbbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting? | 65,951,289 | 65,951,289 |
f48014dbe87bed4a3ede5e82efb98552d1bd485f | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x53b9d8c3f3811c6640aaa410b15ef57ee73a4c1e939df8baa1f2c9b6ddca8611 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-6-13 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 6-13? | 65,951,289 | 65,951,289 |
971dbf16fddfccb7b8e90cee43f5bed86991cae1 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x8c79878f1dc22b33d2b317de60fc1f05f8fb1dbe650bb75d2b1b26c9fd6afc77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | rfk-popular-vote-share | Will RFK Jr. win 1-2% of the popular vote? | 65,951,289 | 65,951,289 |
ce83a5c734214f8563c91d674295a2010181455b | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x9d1f0296f3a016727193d2b45704e0debc3b8048fe0715f8bb1e91550d321872 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | yes | 1 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year | Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024? | 65,951,289 | 65,951,289 |
7a3b3b170165ea0ba5bff4b3682537f64cb63530 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0xae43e53d8516dd644c2b294c6fcdc8b345e905352672c7f6cf1ebfee127d9409 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | yes | 1 | which-state-will-kamala-win-by-the-largest-margin | Will Kamala Harris win Vermont by the largest margin? | 65,951,289 | 65,951,289 |
4e13cb7b93018f2a9d390104ccbefb5ac4a3f5c1 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0xf1e8d58513d652e1248d2da60d3b35a684362f15a4e9bcd90660ddfd044b16cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | which-3rd-party-candidate-wins-most-votes | Will RFK Jr. get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? | 65,951,289 | 65,951,289 |
93e46bfddb994fea4eb02567857442c95b5179ba | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0xf8c6c4704c68db1d81146b7214bc2e3e887630248e59b900ae75cf598c110ad1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree' win Game of the Year? | 65,951,289 | 65,951,289 |
96cd8b866a49e67a26e2e12638cbc3ffb7b289dd | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0xd98db52e63443f7de6a09f565afc2151dd1d987ac9b18bd04cc7b83e313760ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-december-6-13 | Will Trump tweet less than 3 times Dec 6-13? | 65,951,293 | 65,951,293 |
1c78901a6f56c916049a37b1486bdce927b1404d | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x384b03defc6bdae15143f2af958cb5a31796a1bd7fd5b5020aff53c09ba1f1a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | who-will-replace-larry-fink-as-blackrock-ceo | Raj Rao announced as next BlackRock CEO? | 66,939,446 | 66,939,446 |
469d29707879c8dccbfa43940f1df953c7a25a66 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | when-will-gpt-5-be-announced | GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? | 66,939,446 | 66,939,446 |
6c6e36ad4cbfc801d1f83a9ee51be975d2823947 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | yes | 1 | when-will-satoshis-identity-be-proven | Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024? | 66,939,446 | 66,939,446 |
0379c5f269065c54d6a78e1472aeb8f3bd4a0a00 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0xdca85943cda4d8822e2277e8cdad22cd7a03d0383d0e517aa17ce0e3ee2c6115 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024? | 66,939,446 | 66,939,446 |
5cb0c4cfd82905d0d8ddf33a95a6e3f495e10e22 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0xeb6ef8774a2f00981c95a0f7b06c451d06d3e3335c043330758c65616899d383 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the December 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.34°C? | 66,939,446 | 66,939,446 |
eaaa3313f19820ee805b49993c7f636e80ac6f32 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x52a0257f184535f7a4d47e90fce0e968aaca9699fa7aeb1e3bb3a46e6f85bd73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-ireland | Will Mary Lou McDonald be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? | 67,814,160 | 67,814,160 |
d37af8d6033a484eddc6b4371b13acf16103ca73 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0xec3919521b4d67a9c71acdc5e949331d6e74a792b633c46c1ce24adf59935cd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | oscars-best-supporting-actress | Will Monica Barbaro win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | 69,418,018 | 69,418,018 |
a19fb64853e918eb82c3bec28827cbc94fd17cd8 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0xd920de24307b1a9855de7d4e9b52014844310e1e0f7211a551a5a64cc1ecc702 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | yes | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-july-2025 | Will the ECB announce no change at the July meeting? | 74,770,589 | 74,770,589 |
72375aa598c5dfb32a8bb02e8905ec62724767c5 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x7d4471d3b431508a00dd5aa4256328a9424aaf4b9e882f14e7385ff086eaaf13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | bolivia-chamber-of-deputies-election-winner | Will MAS-IPSP win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election? | 75,705,738 | 75,705,738 |
494ba68948eb5448d3e46c8305b61c39e47311b7 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x29250b1fcdb7a29791e115bd16e64ffa97db7dd55694f97170320e1803283b4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | next-prime-minister-of-norway | Will Trygve Slagsvold Vedum become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | 78,243,683 | 78,243,683 |
be2750c5dc21b54bbd7577b17c84fce566289188 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x52f23a4dd01120361c18c010a88ede2db9f7500645b8499845f2d582289533b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-20... | no | 1 | efl-cry-liv-2025-10-29 | Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? | 78,500,647 | 78,500,647 |
423de113c30c07ed0a2a7375e42292f7bd8be5e3 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x5ddaecdffc4bd601de8b32ad001ad778490aa826ec23606d09ec2ad913184b47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | Event: delaware-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | Event: hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 | Will Grimsby Town FC win on 2025-10-28? | 78,500,647 | 78,500,647 |
7062cb52a208adb13d8d21339eb3d7bd58382996 | 0x1b6f3c5deca2ae5500407f383afb2a5e3b277723 | 0x61a0823455afb718c1435274c7d1d608788950de641b62668453fdb52d8554c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | Event: hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win California Presidential Election? | Event: california-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump... | no | 1 | efl-bha-ars-2025-10-29 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,500,647 | 78,500,647 |
6862aa6669af68e656e1c02f615dc530fb69de3f | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0xe10190526534563cc1dd9b59d7361e80d2392661cf39cd55c6158b4ee446aa4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11?
Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | 77,640,530 | 77,640,530 |
c0ccac92cbe110abdf9876ebf64021ca959122f5 | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0x20d4b4186dd1ef583b767f162ea48e2a32a009399212255eb406739c22dfa6a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04?
Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choic... | yes | 1 | ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | 78,635,678 | 78,635,678 |
5091a33de3f6f31db35dec1d80960065856e8949 | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0x4714297d095ab987f1ad968cbd1a2b42d9d20433cac64bed224c16626045ae02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-... | yes | 1 | col-ray-lep-2025-11-06 | Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | 78,698,114 | 78,698,114 |
7735f4de071f9d41227f50b349dd70f3bf09d44d | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0x3473484b411b56cbf90f8cf63b3ebd72b9c8b93f77dcecb22afb19fa30c2413d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | no | 1 | uel-utr1-por1-2025-11-06 | Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-11-06? | 78,698,154 | 78,698,154 |
d741c44423174022ee76a3e1dc05f040512033b3 | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0x8d4313a38fc17df1cebed4e810580fa142972f3a51c94e8f909a58c7ebac802e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | uel-utr1-por1-2025-11-06 | Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-06? | 78,698,154 | 78,698,154 |
77008a2a9c1d4cdb33daa618e70b3eb896858ef3 | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0xb551614acd94636a30b37e3218c967d86230361a4762ce42913e8159e3887d92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | col-aek1-shr-2025-11-06 | Will AEK win on 2025-11-06? | 78,698,194 | 78,698,194 |
59e33d5242c652f98a14680d1c564e931efd65ee | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0xe1ffb7672852c242bcc7eeb63c8f832eb75a7fa3ef4480781ed97dc7c1eae09b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | fl1-lyo-psg-2025-11-09 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,920,258 | 78,920,258 |
d9ba8b40c3e88678910dd5d323163e17cc227ab5 | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0x39394f14d9027e76034a5d662fb3a453391b6f121112c22e4606fe27bb67a917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? | 78,920,326 | 78,920,326 |
39ad3bd94733b57b5a60777c4bf18632af5f2608 | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0xe1ebd3731d1cb15e0d9a2c78eba519d6573175f788d8d685c0652fdecb9735c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | no | 1 | uel-rom1-plz1-2025-10-23 | Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2025-10-23? | 78,920,360 | 78,920,360 |
904f746a1832420b9217c9e258da84dffd81cecf | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0x63641305c71f4870df4d25f027ce9a88fe5e0d4b77e245dd6652c6042431efa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | sea-cre-ata-2025-10-25 | Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-25? | 78,920,405 | 78,920,405 |
ce866d496eb4956a2d9da8271eae05a3a0a49d58 | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0xc034ac69f99d3754a416f23f6a771693bfc6eaf4417c9a4309c8f51813965a37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | no | 1 | epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? | 78,920,448 | 78,920,448 |
0fc6cd6ea3608de955672226e0bb809a836eff29 | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0x5c3f3929638c3c74f082782318a372b872002f16cf9d18184fb852f1061ee0bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-ful-2025-11-08 | Will Everton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | 78,920,494 | 78,920,494 |
af7fbd35200e94055842a84e4f55a0407b252a40 | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0x895093179fad1e484d51a0e99dd32148088d0e678436477fe0971c9be55509b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-lev-2025-11-05 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-05? | 78,920,499 | 78,920,499 |
966c4e42eb5eb4d308ad0a172e73e9339c4a8e3a | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0xd84c31f4db1074287919c383d9cc526b19bc0274276af7bb1a5a427c6a061aa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | 78,920,507 | 78,920,507 |
677f9995011b8c523d3d305330dc5511c821a464 | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0xfce2f26692b6ce764a8ce2cb6dbe8d57b42e43e7b1e871705fa2f1e88b514cab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | lal-gir-ovi-2025-10-25 | Will Girona win on 2025-10-25? | 78,920,522 | 78,920,522 |
71d67394674e26e324376978b40cbbdb1b99148e | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0x88495bc7b3b737c4535892bb66428f461984570794f6e15d01c935cac93f30b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-qar-cfc-2025-11-05 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? | 78,920,528 | 78,920,528 |
c8f1b2ee3a4921d8de5040b0a098d9c5aa758c2b | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0x1cc6ce941591529dc5b6524674bb08f5a89b2bf504cb3467ae6fffdd6233b1e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | sea-juv-tor-2025-11-08 | Will Juventus win on 2025-11-08? | 78,920,542 | 78,920,542 |
578f1a6f4f7d317d535e30f196ed527db05c90d5 | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0x9b38fbcedd158486d39e56cc709bc3aa5bba4a1c249959d87fc6983432b68c2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | no | 1 | ucol-shd-leg-2025-10-23 | Will Legia Warszawa win on 2025-10-23? | 78,920,550 | 78,920,550 |
3b3bfb9124d39669e139f53a907900536afad726 | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0x655ce85deee9333b247aa2d41f6b41aa237a5e8e3574de891e31870a29544067 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | sea-com-cag-2025-11-08 | Will Como win on 2025-11-08? | 78,920,556 | 78,920,556 |
1e5a7e00aeabcc0b87cb0c4aaaaa45ae6f05b214 | 0x1b821805f9112863db1760d238f97f9834d57f3c | 0xe3ce32c7242810f09868c02f46683918ef3182dc5b75ddadecfa6f3c5f556207 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | epl-sun-ars-2025-11-08 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? | 78,920,562 | 78,920,562 |
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