sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
41c6cb0448380e1296b0a4e7dbd4e7966d9d7ae2 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0x69bf4f8aa2acb131126f0e552f7b5bf1d1e4de09e9271d7b745da48fb5f6b611 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17?
Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | 75,378,875 | 75,378,875 |
829c821616d089a304d9fa6e889293a43d328387 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0xef9f6953b9be7ebe624fea24d0ebf2e4a0d33ee16697ff275873ee2078ea87f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13?
Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ...,... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | 76,418,607 | 76,418,607 |
2d63345f566319c2ae524710e5225e2a568e4b10 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0x38080270546c5896fed7b5ffb94828d449e2344b287f0de059bfaf333480b7c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19?
Event: sea-lec-cag-2... | yes | 1 | sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 | Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | 76,663,403 | 76,663,403 |
e3cb04b1bf184fdd41d2ac5912cde2af48a13de7 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0xad4a4c526aa663dfe1f25c2da1ca716b2a56b32c314997df30838ff6be451638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-new-2025-09-21 | Will Bournemouth vs. Newcastle end in a draw? | 76,740,250 | 76,740,250 |
86bb6feb97c68ef1b706373813aa571d528416a3 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0x5a785b3aa7027e39aa1a65f36381288c353fa43950ebabd33040eca51ec65296 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | mls-stl-laf-2025-09-27 | Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-09-27? | 77,143,668 | 77,143,668 |
bed35a82a2e25616be3e793d48577249714dfa14 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0xf4612fb9d99286831391607306a57107aa97101ee478cd46c7da9b4984be5151 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | mls-por-sdg-2025-10-18 | Will San Diego FC win on 2025-10-18? | 77,885,501 | 77,885,501 |
98e1399fb5fd0009a96084424f5ad7b651c4f18e | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0xa97e77fd0f8970f1d081d53639167b53a9d26f0cf44d00dd318eb13ae6f486e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | 78,001,669 | 78,001,669 |
0eeffdda3616cb244e8af2f369ca8c52d3d25b5a | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0x344b92fb5f46a83c32a954fb4c42f0945d784a5681c4fe710f169225f5caba7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | 78,042,777 | 78,042,777 |
79059fe6255dffb5ad7cb637eb80d9c52e4f1d67 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0x54d73cf1a9e5f6c791f953ea0f286808b9e08f262d9c7bf5ff33f4cb79309bf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | mls-mia-nas-2025-10-24 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-10-24? | 78,133,578 | 78,133,578 |
485104ce4b484ad672d0e918b9e0332ce31e7570 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0x3a7cd6b4c02882654bb7b63f2fc496683095890a9ed42efd4dd5980ce23dd19c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-not-2025-10-26 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26? | 78,216,642 | 78,216,642 |
ed7f291a117700fdbea032889f86802480e46371 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0x473b561753e5a80e8d3c6de1d093da4640305b76d9d11486c13b7830a84d7c9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-bar-2025-10-26 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? | 78,216,642 | 78,216,642 |
aa03473bc4cb6dd3a9db00fd1677e23ae221ce97 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0xbb2225a932831be03fcc3ab9fccbfa7f42e1bfaa4ef5074d69c81b2229af80dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Will Como win on 2025-10-29? | 78,340,774 | 78,340,774 |
76191cbe96864c1a62b6c34e6a119f0fb6f26971 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0x21bed20d85e87128ba93e619002026a101b8d2625df86b00cf48c549fe8e828c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | aus-per-vic-2025-10-31 | Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,422,508 | 78,422,508 |
91904f500f543c66d2b499a141c436e8a0ff2d77 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0x414e897fa4cb3416b4ea38d5135bea6ebf5502e4e53c3e89421f655d05df7705 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | bun-wol-hof-2025-11-02 | Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-02? | 78,510,686 | 78,510,686 |
341cc5deb30f688f05568db1ed6a78cc9291d650 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0x8271709361637143472353527b9ac5f7ec29f1093537b80b1e2c52f588ff9eaf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | den-sjs-vbk-2025-11-02 | Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2025-11-02? | 78,510,686 | 78,510,686 |
84639bf1d8a64d8970e04b28f3ec56cd6fd2e497 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0xa423c8425ade4456e9d75b44fc7d077de4d69939810d6152f5cd0e2eecfc5570 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | fif-chl-per-2025-11-18 | Will Chile win on 2025-11-18? | 79,200,709 | 79,200,709 |
1499256caf7eab082eb3140da413fc5bb993b697 | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0x69f6eb7065b5f6cb03af20773f4a3a103c1d7cb454e7a110b19a4ee2f420f013 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | fl1-rcl-str-2025-11-22 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-11-22? | 79,378,770 | 79,378,770 |
eaf1c8fbfc6d64a36edc565de264f885d105f74d | 0x1b9bd92464c2b3d73b2b9d7fe481f0524a95bc4a | 0x309d698c4282ca9a1bc69b3c22857df4f6b122db68c0cc3f4224f34002d91142 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19? | Event: sea-lec-cag-2025-09-19 |... | yes | 1 | sea-gen-ver-2025-11-29 | Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-11-29? | 79,677,169 | 79,677,169 |
c4de03b86caf4fdb66fd44c42ac7ed5e06843ac6 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x6d7a40de5387ed03369e9247454d57d96438f9ae5e2ddb2af3dc74b62c667f5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024?
Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | worlds-2024-lol-winner | Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | 63,820,801 | 63,820,801 |
70ce5694cefa0a8026a91168e9396ddd8d13f74c | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0xbb01eefb24a38a9aa1921ec168d3049e7374b28a2540937d06b3ff2524d66627 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election?
Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output str... | no | 0.999997 | michigan-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | 63,987,389 | 63,987,389 |
e05066c210222f8e042951ba16de6351cd95db11 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0xe9adc4dc5fe6a7c2f952918809b10c56076272ff0fd030d0b347cbfc4f2dd27e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
Target market:
Question: Will Claude ha... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will Claude have the top AI model on December 31? | 66,190,124 | 66,190,124 |
47e802863a58a48825ce0f27d29981a2f089dd9d | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | 72,316,663 | 72,317,636 |
85090050927dc43e72917bdd19c1cce47293bef0 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0xa4f51ae09144ebedb1e4329a28597dcb25217be1050fb76b86335837943bf519 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,334,734 | 72,334,734 |
66044a6e1530e574c9dfdad4795e2248f41d026a | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0xb1d3425f59ceae2850755ae4f4c5c0d8cb46f4446e3fd191ee4077e0527202f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | yes | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? | 72,540,453 | 72,540,453 |
68e69db6706a70407441cdaa62823c3ad2d186d3 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x09dccc39989c0329e3c9fd4fe6061fa6fb333368c01de80657ae3c36e744c7ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | yes | 1 | 2025-mid-season-invitational | Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | 73,912,733 | 73,912,733 |
bdacce2f5c85f92715ebb4f8116703464cea653e | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x7f2b176849c46466a04ce7cb80d6541b2df30c1953b794a8f7f42c26ad15ca13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Will Bilibili Gaming win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | 74,090,641 | 74,090,641 |
6d54f44e450624131ff165d01cf413a82174e5af | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x8c1f141c0e9528ec13df1857555cc4158dbfd4b97d9b27538f6800efa5b935f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-july-25 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3500 on July 25? | 74,412,783 | 74,412,783 |
2d7371339ad91d3a7205cf0b6a7fe53196234eeb | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x838fb293d318fc63c2dd3c8c011b2aec50f012491d94241464199f7407a84026 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-august-28-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4800 and $4900 on August 28 at 4PM ET? | 75,780,503 | 75,780,503 |
b9b10766318563715f1fda00c863a281734a35ac | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x47436dd83ea211547041c972581781889159913bb698ee5baa9d38bd114326ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-august-30-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4500 on August 30 at 4PM ET? | 75,863,597 | 75,863,597 |
9e40dd475e0fe087ca37531737910a29e4faad57 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x5376b96fcee08f12e2a15479d68be3395016c7e111667d660f10060fd12a98a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-30-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $111K on August 30 at 4PM ET? | 75,863,597 | 75,863,597 |
bec1a76da56b538102b511fbb0a95ca54e1ee930 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x8fa9ebdefb57d92ca4340c6714a1553ced09c0068c9f004376db7eb7c4f2bbd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | fif-gib-alb-2025-09-04 | Will Gibraltar win on 2025-09-04? | 76,061,114 | 76,061,114 |
034a427dd509abd6f3160f323248baf875f63085 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x9a60daffeb90cc065df03a7e98195f54e0073e7b85d79090fc4b1f4b8de5b6fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | yes | 1 | fif-nor-fin-2025-09-04 | Will Norway win on 2025-09-04? | 76,061,114 | 76,061,114 |
a162970e6c820e8054d309a513ab543bc0804581 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x659f8451a9d0021478c222779c4413a16fb0b0f0259f855e58186cfb0c0e914a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-september-4-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4500 and $4600 on September 4 at 4PM ET? | 76,064,746 | 76,064,746 |
023e0d3371eb9683759a0b131a3574dcca8f4709 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0xbc3aa27c375803b90ffb367ad9f83b0343b3c63aa07c0824f7c22546e2637892 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | caf-som-gui-2025-09-05 | Will Somalia win on 2025-09-05? | 76,105,111 | 76,105,111 |
f1aada5053de5bc2248c0ee0f0845d396f297671 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x4815d93879944ad31aad7c3ddfe36d697164b93d983609a66cde9e55b8811ddb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | cof-gua-slv-2025-09-04 | Will El Salvador win on 2025-09-04? | 76,124,234 | 76,124,234 |
4714dd6f5694c777d5396bd7be345f3148e5bff4 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0xababde5fc6a45882921bb0f6f9f4f4f45e0edf62980d8e9da97b649a4aae96d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-06 | Will Sri Lanka win on 2025-09-06? | 76,145,902 | 76,145,902 |
b4e6f791309b8b0310d2eadecf83cf990f0457fa | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0xdca651d00d5faba06f324523260d9a0be28acf055ae33cd008f1f376b0dd14aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | yes | 1 | uef-lat-ser-2025-09-06 | Will Serbia win on 2025-09-06? | 76,145,902 | 76,145,902 |
d46862e4f6027badf9fc43cc34f13f147708071a | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x954eb8ac45ea87931db21eb07e19582c7d2a36c0c3bf4e0ea7da33474aeec080 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | caf-gbi-dji-2025-09-08 | Will Djibouti win on 2025-09-08? | 76,227,205 | 76,227,205 |
9ed3badc1f889a4e9ddb6a897aacf80d256ec17e | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0xcc0adc5b0ca0306cf7bc120fd10554a744c2c4089478e747d20a899bbb72914e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | fif-idn-lib-2025-09-08 | Will Indonesia win on 2025-09-08? | 76,227,205 | 76,227,205 |
2c0132c0f52c949c481ef1481d8094eb9c0cb357 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x64e6f6cc76fbc7b0769d2c06d3cbe44bed0b34af76fda105127c950f7fb5f7a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | sea-pis-udi-2025-09-14 | Will Pisa SC win on 2025-09-14? | 76,470,053 | 76,470,053 |
47177737e85c9bfca0c4f1acc7bfae27cf2f7669 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0xaaf6c094091156c9b37f6d31d6dc10e8cd708c4cbb638b6d57044c1cb03cd135 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | sea-rom-tor-2025-09-14 | Will Torino win on 2025-09-14? | 76,512,962 | 76,512,962 |
1b4f79627ee1294f4dbd6a5599f7ce5c19b7e316 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x1747a5c2c9e74c6866481c9d5cea26a994a00278d9a40f6e6b22c0624f471ac3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-09-16? | 76,541,334 | 76,541,334 |
a73a9265a0deebb84c5f6e677426b96028483a70 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x4c2790f60b197915980df4d946b03c3136f897b628b88411ed15455790e58f86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | ucl-ben-kar-2025-09-16 | Will Qarabag win on 2025-09-16? | 76,581,622 | 76,581,622 |
415b21ccbd5db1c01470590304e0384e7abfdaaf | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0xfd67cefaef51232de4c5ece6b272d09f2f964bba493db93dbaabc7955f66540d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | yes | 1 | ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | 76,581,622 | 76,581,622 |
d69f9573a99a4645755ef04af8c447a5b0772a5a | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0xde57a3ab0f35ebc62125761953d23606f3b5958e2cabe7b7dccdc17c883e7a57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | ucl-mac-nap-2025-09-18 | Will Napoli win on 2025-09-18? | 76,623,584 | 76,623,584 |
b511649ab23e1d2c76aa84a9939443e8d0e8422f | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x262da56221882bfad212e93864104e6a010325665c3da417daedc574913c3bd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? | 76,690,582 | 76,690,582 |
b20657d6e0454871ee2e53f422f5c79809ff115b | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x2f373d0fb0c5a960fa27e3935554a383251ea30339e5a4edf1fad46f9f71cb94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | no | 1 | epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Will Everton win on 2025-09-20? | 76,690,582 | 76,690,582 |
10915622e89d1bb659d8124f6140b84c0bbf81db | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x742e97213804d1b8fd1e297b7caa0d1bc997be936912b9107e01bafc947688e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-tot-2025-09-20 | Will Brighton vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | 76,692,912 | 76,692,912 |
9856c52f984deef7e0e9723376f1f3f9e05e68ae | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x356d2ab984f3faf7c4601eebc1efeb110b718ff2ad1a098d31704311ce56509d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-bre-2025-09-20 | Will Fulham win on 2025-09-20? | 76,716,784 | 76,716,784 |
60b138d24effde3883fe485534cc6afa83bf953e | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x145ff557ed79e625c505ba4119dbf10642e0990004ea51f690b35a18ebb8edb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999969400046818
2. Question: Will Claude have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | 76,744,620 | 76,744,620 |
4719e32bd7f4f07cdbf339e0236540891887dd88 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x076c969534642cc4a72aac9658cf1bffd4d1a669684e4c02732e9ba43531045f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Claude have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elec... | no | 1 | lal-sev-vil-2025-09-23 | Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-23? | 76,826,528 | 76,826,528 |
4c68cd895bb88a94863eb316b13f11325eeb3bc8 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x5ce751066d5a63c8231cdc0cf6f209a8325458a52fc8304e8e5f64d369170c44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jann... | no | 1 | lal-lev-rea-2025-09-23 | Will Levante UD win on 2025-09-23? | 76,826,528 | 76,826,528 |
729a772fb7274c27a357a18d68d35dbfc88dd82a | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0xea83b296e885289ac5a2491a3bbf57d0eef0245515a0d692f29b554bff2dde94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gen.G win the 20... | yes | 1 | lal-lev-rea-2025-09-23 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23? | 76,826,528 | 76,826,528 |
57f8b73d7a65019d1cde8063b1e849a162274d89 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x6de5bb4c73363cb7ca472f165ab5c3ec7fff69ce5ea74950846730c69e3046dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? | Event: 2025-french-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bilibili Gaming win the 2025 Leag... | no | 1 | mex-gua-nec-2025-09-23 | Will Club Necaxa win on 2025-09-23? | 76,834,438 | 76,834,438 |
f0d6006d174ec51fcbd0973100e469c35e1c63d5 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x31b44a061c2e7506f3bfd82803e85128f73001500619517636a7082f4b4ea75b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bilibili Gaming win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | bun-bay-wer-2025-09-26 | Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-26? | 76,945,598 | 76,945,598 |
8398adfdc382368cc0bfe25e6dcbc04bd9324491 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0xfc8bb0a055437bf1caf8fe97cb3b2f8e2bb6b05a1e79dc12c75f7d08abf519b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bilibili Gaming win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3500 on July 25? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | epl-cry-liv-2025-09-27 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-27? | 76,988,006 | 76,988,006 |
4c346108dc65fe153dbacbf5d955bf6619fb6057 | 0x1ba03b2354437a4de0877dc1e4bca5087cde3d98 | 0x2cbc5836a008def90e77b3520944d7b0315edec319bc3aac58a2b076e50c9b54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3500 on July 25? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4800 and $4900 on August 28 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-28-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | mls-clt-mim-2025-09-27 | Will Charlotte FC win on 2025-09-27? | 76,993,746 | 76,993,746 |
ad96abe144e83ef20721ebad946f5f16dbd803ab | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xf405e3f68d6a6f6036a5e8c6aec26305576c240b5144ba2b748bdcb746d918a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years?
Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | 65,295,242 | 65,295,242 |
88f7677c94065e8320cd32b83217a0b2fd07b893 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x05786e6d52d97ec9634b465588b94966b64636968789517d475ab27be4367d84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024?
Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market... | no | 1 | time-2024-person-of-the-year | Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | 65,428,146 | 65,428,146 |
4c44378ee9154dbfce592b6fcb0b4b5a2872aea0 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x0fa0ed2dadf63ccaac0aa7251815e3ffc3df64eeb22726851b5d7468766b5ff5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Joe Biden be... | no | 1 | time-2024-person-of-the-year | Will Joe Biden be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | 65,428,146 | 65,428,146 |
b7481b864383bb6631894a75c7f9ef91178c8116 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x22de1587bf5cdc584b469f154da232192eeac6e39da9319ff04a6a60dcce40c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | time-2024-person-of-the-year | Will Joe Rogan be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | 65,428,146 | 65,428,146 |
75294d5c0e11c667b4b23ada5959edbbc970b06e | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x62c1c246437874dc270d9d9019b6228532a394ea2a6ffa36190c7075a2732ae6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? | 66,263,857 | 66,263,857 |
bff7aaa462b529bd99b63321e1bc167622ca5d76 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x21559998482bf5dfbcaf0f5409edd34eebd84c8998df622f9da8ff1e1f248a26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will someone else be inaugurated? | 67,035,434 | 67,035,434 |
5bfbb23cf5e2b5fb802f8b2fdc59273c0af85c56 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x4480460531feebcaacb3105e9186e19c522d8335bb79100aa4a9b8dfca751bd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | yes | 1 | who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Will Christopher Macchio perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | 67,035,434 | 67,035,434 |
e563ba868781c3b6d62449ce6cdeb831a0dd3060 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xc3d4155148681756bfe67bb41d8d0882a8a122e7d3762b3591bf6598c9bd198b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | 67,035,434 | 67,035,434 |
d7e1740aec1ab64da8c72b2b3327e36673823753 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xc5a29d7da91c765c5b8b45dc5f86147558ad0d16bb18e7ca14a74e3b5e3ebf9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | 67,035,434 | 67,035,434 |
e17d1edd8cae16c05ae944e876c1c4c94635096e | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x08ddb9462722d8affaccf8f972893375fcf6430afe4c413a923da5bcdcb31ae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | dc-metrorail-ridership-on-inauguration-day | Will there be 700k or more rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? | 67,290,141 | 67,290,141 |
208cd794ba9b47358a96bf2d6485f8f4d6807470 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x33242e4f0d4d3de8194a7e49c2a16a3359d56ab54727b385408f96f317655e87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week-higher-options | Will Trump issue 200 or more executive orders in first week? | 67,290,141 | 67,290,141 |
2516368735f21bc0efaa10adb6b0b012c0ceaa6b | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x458fa9c8e4b73b85dc8a02289bb8134e2cd0f26dcb8f9bfb24fdd0091dffd61c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | dc-metrorail-ridership-on-inauguration-day | Will there be 600-700k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? | 67,290,141 | 67,290,141 |
d947898121cfef1e564ae601ce998d99483df938 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xc5bb8aabf50ca7230c63be0a900fe0ac4018f36ab6dd0aeebd9e59beaf08c415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | yes | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,290,141 | 67,290,141 |
c76fb7d7a20cd5e41cb0eefa2469ca3a219ad83a | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xfa6a3dcf3f25cc84d660b255793f9a2fc246c0b2e4ffeb51285dce46e075bded | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | yes | 1 | largest-company-on-january-31 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | 67,393,480 | 67,393,480 |
2d3879ad98672190ea86331f22ad12056d29ba8d | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xbcec35df879043d808cf92cac54f859297f0c6c227bc67c4fc69e79b632f76e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | yes | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | 68,298,313 | 68,298,313 |
478688b3e01bac1c8a06874623c7700766345246 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x1921202aa3f884b9c562a244f1e58417d93c9315e6768d27768eb3b2abc2c95b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | yes | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,336,052 | 68,336,052 |
e0fd151f5566a2339bbcfe842c8f562121a59259 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x3f56bae1879b7336e2e77fd2955557216cd305cff2481844e799050b364a3ef8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,336,052 | 68,336,052 |
d5d1e3e687b1723861de95812cf9cf916ea864f5 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x8d762b96d3a92f61823a593e64ec6cd2287f4671a25a1a4824961d5ba8bcf5a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? | 70,665,092 | 70,665,092 |
83ca33f00d9de6b651e9e5495b73f33ffd94864a | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x7dd77c0435ef5b95e7a8fcc6edbbd18d5a52b432d282fe8842b80a430debff26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-april-30 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $340b on April 30? | 71,178,375 | 71,178,375 |
22ebab440e442be9c827ed839e3c5eacbcf02ee2 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xff56e71c509fc0ce0ea872f9b1929bffd2530cb2e109944ffd34f48a9f918dbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | largest-company-end-of-april | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | 71,178,375 | 71,178,375 |
48abc068870043eb13d7285efb10933eaeee1edf | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x53a3d6bcdd2091f309c064a2463d6c8c1b64bbf8f2d5f413a1d21ba129b1bd6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | nba-playoffs-timberwolves-vs-warriors-series-outcome | Will the Warriors beat the Timberwolves 4-1? | 71,407,757 | 71,407,757 |
a7161c2174f657f45f9124a170c2de0f1ae51d02 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x092b62f2d6420f0d599f99260c79e4ca0a7f247c5484ac1cf475932a17794294 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-april | Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? | 71,571,602 | 71,571,602 |
c5d25af5caa3d956a530460dd05af1200c2a0f11 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x929d9d9c734006cfa0cd46c836fcd7c78b483bbc83eeade72bbbf5c7340b248e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | nba-western-conference-champion | Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | 71,571,602 | 71,571,602 |
724746a4ad7312f5714d61a1f1149da4453d5738 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xbb49aeb60fc5454f81c518b8578c0f4e92715193359c6d056b4fee6b1c7e5358 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | nba-eastern-conference-champion | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | 71,571,602 | 71,571,602 |
0a8b85f85c421f9f39d0e0cb240260dda37e1048 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xc4d3f5267d6ac068e1da43bc56dfe649004e56b57b8ef5327d68f4ae85a29732 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | nba-playoffs-timberwolves-vs-warriors-series-outcome | Will the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 4-3? | 71,571,602 | 71,571,602 |
94b5c514e7e7e0421e668e993d499c473b21e4a7 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xeb4a56bfe545c421b032a73b9022cc56c52efdbce1df86ae2defc2e6c6a2ad40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | nba-playoffs-thunder-vs-nuggets-series-outcome | Will the Nuggets beat the Thunder 4-1? | 71,571,602 | 71,571,602 |
03e07009774b9debc4f77eb48417de25ab8cd1df | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xc536f335eece80d6529f2ba3ff35df6352882deedbbd53f7c22c12b8b592e4c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? | 72,151,005 | 72,151,005 |
9d361941d2d6ca973473d65d6f2e1c4109acc77b | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x150557967e82c9d12df470e3c5d94c1268bad43d6a560d9cad8282073f4f600b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | nba-conference-finals-points-leader | Will Myles Turner lead the NBA Conference Finals in total points? | 72,278,346 | 72,278,346 |
e7cb6faa389ae44c748f0e45d7c42119a862c0f8 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xa0a447586dee8789c88b0ebedc57599f71229a53cfdb3b6928f9f655c4a480e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | yes | 1 | nba-conference-finals-points-leader | Will Jalen Brunson lead the NBA Conference Finals in total points? | 72,278,346 | 72,278,346 |
cf4563a50b68874fe4640cbd30c4d8fc5a305efe | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x01d150bd16d2edf88980f26fb9f5f778d6cb661827037d7e9c24fe3a0f3009ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Darius Garland Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 72,639,234 | 72,639,234 |
bc3ea8b95000a749e2acfeadae273af80ced9932 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x1ebed269e694ec183d67fa74a84d5c10736c872fc49725c8682f182eac4a1043 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Penny sentenced to 5-10 years? | Event: daniel-penny-prison-time-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Perso... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Jayson Tatum Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 72,639,234 | 72,639,234 |
21f4f38588a1e0c0fc48045894dfa70e6f6b3a51 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x3182024b44caf68f738981b5e07c672331ea97ef462eace737b04a3126d51f3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Rogan be... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 72,639,234 | 72,639,234 |
bfc8813f3b08115b39664a8523519acd349e28a7 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x8cd492434663395c8f38d3e99f075de65e3b9c7cdc21fa565a260873c415c56d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Rogan be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Furiosa: A Mad ... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Jimmy Butler Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 72,639,234 | 72,639,234 |
4054f114b3aa53fcd4d4fa3e593d6f5898b93b15 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x978a470d1b402d4231d1be153071ad3f073ba395a397b5cdbd51e537b476f92f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Rogan be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will someone else be i... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Derrick White Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 72,639,234 | 72,639,234 |
9ebc1e4be18cf08055bbd8ad6c7f75e23540aa9c | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x9e8423c3a0642e283ebaf940fba1d659d8f68efc1e9098ea5bbcf605edd601d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will someone else be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Christopher Macchio perform t... | no | 1 | nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-0? | 72,639,234 | 72,639,234 |
62f532494508c4c79bef92789ec3188a4f96e494 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xa591aebf1bd90e3af9f5dd68f6f753f0a76b41f40610527946285d63b22fb6f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Christopher Macchio perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: yes... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Jaylen Brown Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 72,639,234 | 72,639,234 |
0243771d95d18d50ea85d051e2ea8840b6426ffb | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xc3cbfa71eb81241dd9a040fd709d6555ac22cb57b52c59c7130164c9855d6b94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Christopher Macchio perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Stephen Curry Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 72,639,234 | 72,639,234 |
ad031d8cefdae42fdac5e9c0171ef95c907861e2 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xd7cce084d033f6f86c9e383bea839b8bdb87f2a033adc629bccdc2f4bbcf0310 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there be 700k or more rides on the DC ... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Kristaps Porzingis Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 72,639,234 | 72,639,234 |
4dc3347465c1c86dafa1b85d40a3d0f3a68a76b9 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xfb7a8e7c5a12ce69fc7c50f93f3a84bc3fd78cb14b675bece1af4efb3e545590 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be 700k or more rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? | Event: dc-metrorail-ridership-on-inauguration-day | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump i... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Evan Mobley Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 72,639,234 | 72,639,234 |
f0428ddb3ab3d4a1689a53de08862dc3b19c4ed4 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x7b572212c299b8bc618b5e764ba017f3ea44c8a7ef06a14a94a7309fe9d9d624 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be 700k or more rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? | Event: dc-metrorail-ridership-on-inauguration-day | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue 200 or more executive orders in first week? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week-higher... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Donovan Mitchell Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 72,639,237 | 72,639,237 |
e8ce549fda573b1636974e10069c5934cc17b153 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x18fc51f504dc043d6a03e2d0035fc6bdaa902fcb5e93d16b57d936eafeee780b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 200 or more executive orders in first week? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be 600-700k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? | Event: dc-metrorail-ridership-on-inauguration... | no | 1 | nba-playoffs-most-points-scored | Will Donovan Mitchell lead the 2025 NBA Playoffs in scoring? | 72,986,577 | 72,986,577 |
1a40028ea468d0df8329d76ae85cf3200c6857da | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x3619f068f8c436835e108d1935ad71b2a4fd36e091d453278c787abc26293527 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be 600-700k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? | Event: dc-metrorail-ridership-on-inauguration-day | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 13? | 72,986,577 | 72,986,577 |
18b2d0d356803f22fd534bc9008187c5e56d2443 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x478ed911fc796832391ab5ef5a4a208586471a68a3f3ccfadceac3e1e7e5cbad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Event: largest-company-on-january-31 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | no | 1 | nba-playoffs-most-points-scored | Will Anthony Edwards lead the 2025 NBA Playoffs in scoring? | 72,986,577 | 72,986,577 |
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