sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
41cc4378f7a08834b94a305aa1c3e4a5284eaba5 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xd0ca9d49e994ab71c6d932982f80fe2839f70356b080940850e2ba86c4dce167 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Event: largest-company-on-january-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | nba-playoffs-most-points-scored | Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2025 NBA Playoffs in scoring? | 72,986,577 | 72,986,577 |
a7287d5d4e2896fb8a7ae32f4be19a2a3bf18abc | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x11ba5541dd54005367bc6fe0efa44a9ea74e9a156e57574c3455647824eee13f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | nba-playoffs-most-points-scored | Will Tyrese Haliburton lead the 2025 NBA Playoffs in scoring? | 73,194,230 | 73,194,230 |
2d02f4fe52d2a8e7eb9fd9085e9ab1f322a2a9fa | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x65b863fdc8ee9a04b02c529c0a69a438d91c2d378d452b0d15e675ff4e12612a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 73,194,230 | 73,194,230 |
96748fef3f8ccef8ff8d7aad6794c36eaca2e62b | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x731f3c7e8c179b56f9bfa68e2cfea1508969b177e76a29bbbb9ebfb43275882e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | yes | 1 | nba-playoffs-most-points-scored | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the 2025 NBA Playoffs in scoring? | 73,194,230 | 73,194,230 |
1ad416e1b28c29f1d32c5d505758b8596f83c85f | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x9d8debf9203c6da07e77218d91fe8d4213c8d68d4c2864a9639b70572f49c76b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $340b on April 30? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-april-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 73,194,230 | 73,194,230 |
4defb30f554c998f00bd76cc396d95030edceeda | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x0d8270b6240d3fecee652b9f7ed100dd918de9139cafdb4c72d0fbe0e3df7626 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $340b on April 30? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-april-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | kevin-durants-next-team | Will Kevin Durant be traded to the Heat? | 73,876,969 | 73,876,969 |
16d3f40ec1d354afb998998024baf53d4b28ca0c | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x64a54ccc7bc676a7fd8fe321f97ec8243e3d96e27272d924e7f2d67e2cd7f13e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Warriors beat the Timberwolves 4-1? | Event: nba-playoffs-timberwolves-vs-warriors-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,876,969 | 73,876,969 |
f840140a1e17103f17456dc8fcc19cd5d8d659d8 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x82d5d069f6feae9404fa79d74bad679677cc5cb122f6359e33911cda0593ff4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Warriors beat the Timberwolves 4-1? | Event: nba-playoffs-timberwolves-vs-warriors-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Golden... | yes | 1 | kevin-durants-next-team | Will Kevin Durant be traded to the Rockets? | 73,876,969 | 73,876,969 |
e9f56826f19441dc43b1aeb4d0bc3cbe17693439 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x97d38ab78a3b05222a76a929893abbb65d45acc39af150d7b84664ab978ca619 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | Event: nba-western-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Cleveland Cav... | no | 1 | kevin-durants-next-team | Will Kevin Durant not be traded? | 73,876,969 | 73,876,969 |
91507d3023c3191744745f47119f919cc545a3ef | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xebdbaf4046c7bda30200c433b55e354da82fa3619a13c1812667df18831ddb97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | Event: nba-western-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Event: nba-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will th... | no | 1 | kevin-durants-next-team | Will Kevin Durant be traded to the Knicks? | 73,876,969 | 73,876,969 |
0dc554bf7f07fdb14ad061fe5f1dc052c7d8686e | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xbb6335121fea76e1fcfba4f6caa68d447b399615dcea01901d4bca9a27cb6ecd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Event: nba-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 4-3? | Event: nba-playoffs-timberwolves-vs-warriors-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | june-unemployment-rate | Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%? | 73,876,971 | 73,876,971 |
4df731e9abde6e946df93252bcbb354bf2021c60 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xbc4cdb10426216b17912fee2f4aaaa3d588634f4ca10054ad759b10c89ab5d5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 4-3? | Event: nba-playoffs-timberwolves-vs-warriors-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Nuggets beat the Thunder 4-1? | Event: nba-playoffs-thunder-vs-nuggets-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Will a dozen eggs be below $3.50 in June? | 74,312,227 | 74,312,227 |
a5f58acd50762f2cb7f4306843f9b832cecccfe4 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xa6cb545b027725b320e351d06b6923a68033daa42696c5a36091adf6d8e4c38d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Nuggets beat the Thunder 4-1? | Event: nba-playoffs-thunder-vs-nuggets-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Myles Turner lead the N... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31? | 74,945,066 | 74,945,066 |
dcbf2305d8bf0df85f4531db29bbed60418f2d35 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xdf98cba974ba711e58cdcb6a1572797d56a3b697931e88c709bed0aa2c2a682c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Myles Turner lead the NBA Conference Finals in total points? | Event: nba-conference-finals-points-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jalen B... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31? | 74,945,066 | 74,945,066 |
ec9664e058e106e142dfdb158ad4e806d7485de7 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xe310c38d9824e870dc5c2f15dcf0af82e1858b5666146ee200f0b36e6fceb76a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Myles Turner lead the NBA Conference Finals in total points? | Event: nba-conference-finals-points-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jalen Brunson lead the NBA Conference Finals in total points? | Event: nba-conference-finals-points-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31? | 74,945,066 | 74,945,066 |
c34579974bec9b7cf0552ef1e5b7a4a9b1801f48 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0xee2165c1093870f227df6c43e6e0c04d5ba8ee597340d0fd3e6cfde512fa1fac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jalen Brunson lead the NBA Conference Finals in total points? | Event: nba-conference-finals-points-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Darius Garland Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jayson Ta... | no | 1 | largest-company-end-of-july | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 74,945,066 | 74,945,066 |
b79a539800a038ba7dc7eddc4fa407c554a184cc | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x268eb15354eb17b43e36884d88b03b3fed9888f486c4b54937a8143b1565130d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Darius Garland Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jayson Tatum Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31? | 74,945,069 | 74,945,069 |
baa21843521438f4c75f51f5ed298c8742213f9f | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x60c4548bf61ec02ba3618c9095ee75cf2a991c1f599589f39fa6e29480076de1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimmy Butler Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-15-22 | Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22? | 75,749,082 | 75,749,082 |
11ca2a88951a24c9bab5ad0ac1f5bc889271ae57 | 0x1baa3acacb298081d298fcd4e62d428bc1afc8f4 | 0x3dd78dce2542e8299325f67f79887011d14e5cfa5af14f71d1817877fb781f87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Derrick White Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31? | 75,989,705 | 75,989,705 |
c0d11936354baf419ab863a777b2b57c01362d4f | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x4ff55f268b38682a58a4670e3499e43d308a34c7a762335ff0faf1b723767888 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09?
Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0.311511 | fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | 76,250,081 | 77,813,603 |
091383d9fefceb9dbdd3eaa2a0e6b568b5c38f1d | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x99dea65f550d85faac6c149666b5d015aa798f194b8db1c182b21d3596fd8576 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
Target market:
Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw?
Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict ... | yes | 0.325101 | fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | 76,250,081 | 77,813,603 |
6953e03ddc26774dd8b508fc400863cda7dc9188 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xce6e5850877811fc335ed6031a7494d58a5b10d63f52ef975b3c7b21a2c597cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
Target market:
Question: Will New Zealand ... | no | 0.191919 | fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Will New Zealand win on 2025-09-09? | 76,250,081 | 77,813,606 |
75362e35a61f807b6c0e4b74510ceb0b6f49f16d | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x9e0d0c83936f012da6559fea1467a04fccb4cb51534a1d8b39c109b933c55fa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | yes | 0.41247 | caf-zim-rwa-2025-09-09 | Will Zimbabwe win on 2025-09-09? | 76,255,727 | 77,813,604 |
a30b195d36f66b46c9de93560b67a5c876785723 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x4c05b7a2f4e7854deca88915249588688586d43f097fcd9849b64bef819452f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | no | 0 | caf-sle-eth-2025-09-09 | Will Ethiopia win on 2025-09-09? | 76,255,727 | 77,813,606 |
1a57893e09314f7353a7c900ffcd36cd64275ad9 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xb9c077d553a9476aa0804c956fbf76cb010f5ca28d4a0d674dc40b4d87ec0baf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | yes | 0.290217 | caf-sle-eth-2025-09-09 | Will Sierra Leone win on 2025-09-09? | 76,255,727 | 77,813,606 |
fefb030cc167d80ea87f3745e73a3ab6ae75cab2 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x66efdf397a0398e4b819054f855dedb5511c57debc65221c5eb8a73c57bb4cee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | no | 0.814823 | caf-sle-eth-2025-09-09 | Will Sierra Leone vs. Ethiopia end in a draw? | 76,255,727 | 77,813,607 |
79db11af5199309f7d93814ea43c6ed26cafb428 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x866190ab5f4d52f0df3a383de0a5256ffc80aba10bcc0776f053332ce1811d1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | no | 0.750013 | caf-tan-nig-2025-09-09 | Will Tanzania win on 2025-09-09? | 76,255,727 | 77,813,607 |
01e877fc0909e03126548abd5e018ad977a31d05 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x8e3dbe4c642547eb64e456cc49a26f2d9e5659c99dbb108fdaa5c5ad34082700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | no | 0.759036 | caf-tan-nig-2025-09-09 | Will Tanzania vs. Niger end in a draw? | 76,255,727 | 77,813,607 |
eba74ea36a353554d07b0fcfa27848eaa13562a4 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x996658166d06e95c8f8f2a766589dcea4b94fc8ec566f1d79a4c683f1c8e4744 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | no | 0.789901 | caf-zim-rwa-2025-09-09 | Will Zimbabwe vs. Rwanda end in a draw? | 76,255,727 | 77,813,607 |
06a0c7799d027fd7727521470b30d2bbbb3e4b90 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xbcbc944867af9f400f4140a45a6139dfc10d14833441dd64c1dea20fbfa982e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | yes | 0.149254 | caf-tan-nig-2025-09-09 | Will Niger win on 2025-09-09? | 76,255,727 | 77,813,607 |
9f8805a05e8d99cf35d556cad871ce87145aa024 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x25f6c2e5d7aa4390640f2f050e4a96afe5f370b63bffceedec2af69a3fbd2b54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | yes | 0.793133 | caf-bur-egy-2025-09-09 | Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-09-09? | 76,260,834 | 77,813,603 |
a1bdeb82121aac4d1f751d9f326b4558de53d288 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x7d0add682040384ebac0377ebb75a7bdf059c42707f9845d3847b2fb77d61f02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | yes | 0.80198 | uef-arm-ire-2025-09-09 | Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-09-09? | 76,260,834 | 77,813,603 |
a6273fdccd150523145645d6c89cd4d6b25df13f | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x80c62c791acb22a80cee3d9428374cec42fd25e3991bc59b40fca0abf29b57de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | no | 0.818182 | uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Will Azerbaijan vs. Ukraine end in a draw? | 76,260,834 | 77,813,603 |
a6298a2db15f6a72180dde542e6efdafee01a65a | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xda63e33482e0d18c2202421247cc10e9e6c20279f502fde1386a389e16c85fb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | no | 0.817197 | caf-cdr-sen-2025-09-09 | Will Senegal win on 2025-09-09? | 76,260,834 | 77,813,603 |
d44be668d01f2dfb2202390b584e175ef1f264be | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x3c2090c7fd61b7a87348e96f8920ea19ef4f134add6eb3122673ac4773640df0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | yes | 0.470906 | caf-cdr-sen-2025-09-09 | Will DR Congo win on 2025-09-09? | 76,260,834 | 77,813,604 |
482631a264b05b7f8ac08ca5f632a1467bd58f46 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xcb77f6a43e5265e58d3512e34c7cf7e36fc9f515ab3981f070e5537a18c5a766 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | no | 0.863606 | caf-tog-sdn-2025-09-09 | Will Togo win on 2025-09-09? | 76,260,834 | 77,813,604 |
f38422c9c718d42554693f6ac687dc7e2152516c | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x0996738d10ee44843d2b2b5c1eb3a4e4877bf72667567224311226cbf42f59d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | no | 0.888636 | caf-rsa-nga-2025-09-09 | Will South Africa vs. Nigeria end in a draw? | 76,260,834 | 77,813,606 |
087ace0499d79e3a0df0f3d2ff27fc682ce202a2 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xa299767b72076f71ffba9bffcb86d115e1a85f93db37e8b5b5eae07d324271b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | yes | 0.417178 | uef-arm-ire-2025-09-09 | Will Armenia vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? | 76,260,834 | 77,813,606 |
43278d7c499b055483cb4e01ae988d68cc3c8352 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x361ea793eac71cb6bb5da68ecc8f79ba7dee409639067760fb7c431aec49ae9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | no | 0.333333 | caf-tog-sdn-2025-09-09 | Will Togo vs. Sudan end in a draw? | 76,260,834 | 77,813,607 |
a6ab2a851e388cdd4d8ce4a6d369474336998456 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xd3bfbb9645258db8092c35e04307dcde7d8fb1a0d0001dd391efcd87b19e20e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | no | 0.084967 | caf-cdr-sen-2025-09-09 | Will DR Congo vs. Senegal end in a draw? | 76,260,834 | 77,813,607 |
dc1604af56c36a5e45f51d816a6c829e87466be2 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x3c87617c2e4f27cc34069e51e7366358f3dcd8f810d5c57ca8b475f01c6146ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | marlins | 0 | mlb-wsh-mia-2025-09-09 | Nationals vs. Marlins | 76,263,871 | 76,274,209 |
3e76eb09b84147b013cc6cd898e837958cbe4b06 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x28ab5099976f1243fcd1eeb1e7b89f02711788480f876c66b21d123a9cb973dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | orioles | 0 | mlb-pit-bal-2025-09-09 | Pirates vs. Orioles | 76,263,873 | 76,264,857 |
a647d249cebae4ce2ca5d7c5204bb173550b1d06 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x3ed257c831a2057620f647009164c99590d30e092ab1da7ee9b5e4e53d05b685 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | guardians | 0 | mlb-kc-cle-2025-09-09 | Royals vs. Guardians | 76,263,874 | 76,274,209 |
29d6b33cd81ab4758b9945f0dc4ac14dc7b00905 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x8e62a2575316c0f02cc78fd1def4de01d13fde7583e131bdb496af32e54fcb14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | astros | 0 | mlb-hou-tor-2025-09-09 | Astros vs. Blue Jays | 76,263,887 | 76,274,209 |
91747e7d500c11d357458662e60060307de95e72 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x0c96d50edb834c01bd7f9af9696a058041b2cbb35bef0214843a91c55ff9300d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | braves | 0 | mlb-chc-atl-2025-09-09 | Cubs vs. Braves | 76,264,012 | 76,274,209 |
376fbccedc55b8ef98e310268e24d654db019c97 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x078ea6f0966b98ebed8b26c22554a4161ebd6429ae3db32510c4a57ba26e53b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | tigers | 0 | mlb-det-nyy-2025-09-09 | Tigers vs. Yankees | 76,264,329 | 76,274,209 |
b69638a2dac061d2cbf25c7ff7f39d0e45ae07ae | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x414ff3874c675028e83b11e4b4de3be6831a0c1b2b2fd4bfd586c7150f52533e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | no | 1 | fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 | Will Sri Lanka vs. Maldives end in a draw? | 77,813,603 | 77,813,603 |
5f014f8ebc715c23f96ac681f8d64f7ffce6888a | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xe3e7926f1bd65e208109f51d80d193da22e1eedf4a012d83d47b4b8751c06e89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | yes | 1 | uef-ser-eng-2025-09-09 | Will Serbia win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,603 | 77,813,603 |
c44310db4076a5e167a006f3bcafb75a2e0a4e9c | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x0876ad8714c99c1cb3ffbb401b5562f410307292ec5acacc6d540160275f6491 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | yes | 0.999818 | fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 | Will Maldives win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,604 | 77,813,604 |
d47dc4b0f8ed1ba93c72e0fcfcf772a4d259c596 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x4a8ea36fbc0dd454d8a53f4bfee80df45f6954eecbbcf0f9fb5bca626e8ac5fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3115112434765977
2. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-0... | no | 1 | fif-jor-dom-2025-09-09 | Will Jordan win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,604 | 77,813,604 |
9da57392495927fd8c5697df1f35eaced4a00a8b | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x84762466eb6aba19b7e08569410c5b3e25d6411959f618c707f2bce98098cc6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3251009425089644
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1919191919191919
3. Question: Will Zimbabwe win on 2025-09... | yes | 1 | uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,604 | 77,813,604 |
32b231f99a0678daf4e89a01584f0f6beab6b4f4 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x8e0f8955ed3502ae5c4bb6f3ca528f1640025c7fc6bd85481b619288d4d91ab4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-nzl-aus-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1919191919191919
2. Question: Will Zimbabwe win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-zim-rwa-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.41247004868565695
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-09-09? | Event... | no | 1 | uef-ser-eng-2025-09-09 | Will England win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,604 | 77,813,604 |
6f71f10c4ee9f1292f14936d6033b7e3d1549c0c | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xa057122d98a70ce3e8a63e1f69fcc21f2d4e5e8b55e6d79dbd332a45b235c57d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zimbabwe win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-zim-rwa-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.41247004868565695
2. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-sle-eth-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sierra Leone win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-sle-eth-... | no | 1 | caf-cvi-cmr-2025-09-09 | Will Cabo Verde win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,604 | 77,813,604 |
74dcfdc492d029ba38c2a0a33e10f32021274688 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xa25a8a780eded5b5c43ceb42542c7c695a961a9b43617840d142d88680f8b798 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-sle-eth-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Sierra Leone win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-sle-eth-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.29021706339795705
3. Question: Will Sierra Leone vs. Ethiopia end in a draw? | Event:... | yes | 1 | caf-cvi-cmr-2025-09-09 | Will Cameroon win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,604 | 77,813,604 |
f768b78c6d7989cfcd1a31c50de24910fc0b3dcf | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x49bcb50cd9eb9a6dd0f042f179124d3c2d7530bfe78ce55919c26b15f5521e49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sierra Leone win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-sle-eth-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.29021706339795705
2. Question: Will Sierra Leone vs. Ethiopia end in a draw? | Event: caf-sle-eth-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8148234007000739
3. Question: Will Tanzania win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | uef-cyp-rom-2025-09-09 | Will Romania win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,606 | 77,813,606 |
97b6458493a12f1ae872e93a31425eefe2815d6d | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xc373900c44c9cce3e3b64eaa72772d76f72bbabc55715bd4baae4cbcf9509ccb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sierra Leone vs. Ethiopia end in a draw? | Event: caf-sle-eth-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8148234007000739
2. Question: Will Tanzania win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-tan-nig-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7500133852208051
3. Question: Will Tanzania vs. Niger end in a... | yes | 1 | caf-rsa-nga-2025-09-09 | Will Nigeria win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,606 | 77,813,606 |
8916b68f965ffee3cf4b084b376175a9e69c9566 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xc691b83eb880d30a3d74a15c7223f7b0429170a1ea949a30547893454f42abc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tanzania win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-tan-nig-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7500133852208051
2. Question: Will Tanzania vs. Niger end in a draw? | Event: caf-tan-nig-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7590362240528414
3. Question: Will Zimbabwe vs. Rwanda end in a draw?... | no | 1 | uef-arm-ire-2025-09-09 | Will Armenia win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,606 | 77,813,606 |
1b2da5bc664eedbb1fb5cc5546baedf6473878ac | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xd273176926cfb23a9a040122ff14f041d7777acb3a95c57bd516e5a74ee42258 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tanzania vs. Niger end in a draw? | Event: caf-tan-nig-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7590362240528414
2. Question: Will Zimbabwe vs. Rwanda end in a draw? | Event: caf-zim-rwa-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.789901360138396
3. Question: Will Niger win on 2025-09-09? | E... | yes | 1 | caf-rsa-nga-2025-09-09 | Will South Africa win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,606 | 77,813,606 |
5bfd5aa5cd31e24703fb389768f60320a8dd0bde | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xefa8686c93ba30eb9f3bb75abb9d031fa9bb835d1e350c0642816b0cf5b3ec42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zimbabwe vs. Rwanda end in a draw? | Event: caf-zim-rwa-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.789901360138396
2. Question: Will Niger win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-tan-nig-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.14925382396971118
3. Question: Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-09-09? | E... | no | 1 | caf-zim-rwa-2025-09-09 | Will Rwanda win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,606 | 77,813,606 |
476193628862506f86fa9cae3d1ab9d9e24e3454 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x1660dcbd38574f777961bc7a5e5371640b8060f85f63da6b1c24346b7f217f02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Niger win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-tan-nig-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.14925382396971118
2. Question: Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-bur-egy-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7931332815209213
3. Question: Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-09-0... | no | 1 | fif-wal-can-2025-09-09 | Will Canada win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,607 | 77,813,607 |
324462c2a0e1840fc71a05230522b02db7311e03 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x2d97089b68e20a94f692537317303d7d444ca874609093436dbd6198e20689bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-bur-egy-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7931332815209213
2. Question: Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-arm-ire-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.801980198019802
3. Question: Will Azerbaijan vs. Ukraine e... | yes | 1 | fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 | Will Sri Lanka win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,607 | 77,813,607 |
a72d0d48f97de533d490045dfc60c0b8ca0d4660 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x6f8c747bb9e864d050ff968bea651756ef42008fb04970d7060c49839e6615a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-arm-ire-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.801980198019802
2. Question: Will Azerbaijan vs. Ukraine end in a draw? | Event: uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8181818181818182
3. Question: Will Senegal win on 2025... | yes | 1 | uef-hun-prt-2025-09-09 | Will Hungary win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,607 | 77,813,607 |
f2913042ac61a46113cc93ced11152788f04c595 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x82a89a4700f97e08c3b012964197c023ac236ee9a415e15bc63a71ee09be70e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Azerbaijan vs. Ukraine end in a draw? | Event: uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8181818181818182
2. Question: Will Senegal win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-cdr-sen-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8171971823797388
3. Question: Will DR Congo win on 2025-09-09? | E... | yes | 1 | uef-bih-aut-2025-09-09 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Austria end in a draw? | 77,813,607 | 77,813,607 |
9e5a21b252c7a83ea9eb8d8d8148b1cf56d32469 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xac180eac8af403f3c6db38eb9a9f22f5d87d428d6cd769d56cdda39856da7231 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Senegal win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-cdr-sen-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8171971823797388
2. Question: Will DR Congo win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-cdr-sen-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.47090630717172394
3. Question: Will Togo win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-to... | no | 1 | uef-hun-prt-2025-09-09 | Will Portugal win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,607 | 77,813,607 |
6ad44b969192b5d935b49a7db38b189fee61db3d | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xde1dff15357dd6c9eaf3bc45eb39a1d1501f3da179c528273ae9734117009fad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will DR Congo win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-cdr-sen-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.47090630717172394
2. Question: Will Togo win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-tog-sdn-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8636056718433491
3. Question: Will South Africa vs. Nigeria end in a draw? | ... | yes | 1 | fif-jor-dom-2025-09-09 | Will Dominican Republic win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,607 | 77,813,607 |
7620c92382ed3ba265da42884a19247c8ca2fd61 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xeb38a34d4138e836020f9c810172f90fef47e74cb2f0976f7acdb196cf4dab96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Togo win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-tog-sdn-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8636056718433491
2. Question: Will South Africa vs. Nigeria end in a draw? | Event: caf-rsa-nga-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8886356235753826
3. Question: Will Armenia vs. Republic of Ireland ... | yes | 1 | caf-tog-sdn-2025-09-09 | Will Sudan win on 2025-09-09? | 77,813,607 | 77,813,607 |
0f9954bed12fbf44d12e8335c0004d2c2989eea4 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xfd83a159698afee5645eb8225e90389f640b0ca1ce0450086b1d2b2d6e6b7c54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will South Africa vs. Nigeria end in a draw? | Event: caf-rsa-nga-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8886356235753826
2. Question: Will Armenia vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? | Event: uef-arm-ire-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4171779619293177
3. Question: Will Togo vs.... | no | 1 | caf-bur-egy-2025-09-09 | Will Burkina Faso vs. Egypt end in a draw? | 77,813,607 | 77,813,607 |
74dc72e77db79aefc3f02b1f3dff72568d32778c | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x44e2186cd85cd627de95482e17dab2571515bce7dc31ad658472fd37828d2723 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Armenia vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? | Event: uef-arm-ire-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4171779619293177
2. Question: Will Togo vs. Sudan end in a draw? | Event: caf-tog-sdn-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will DR Congo vs. Seneg... | yes | 0.999968 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-21 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67-68°F on October 21? | 78,019,991 | 78,019,991 |
522362d0a835acef36b858bf508220e12841581e | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x0baea741e7471d662090fda65b49a95f589de5f389f97fa76a135aa27acd63f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Togo vs. Sudan end in a draw? | Event: caf-tog-sdn-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will DR Congo vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Event: caf-cdr-sen-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.08496724251355656
3. Question: Nationals vs. Marlins | Event: mlb... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-22 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on October 22? | 78,026,129 | 78,026,129 |
121ef17198b56c4a92c877692ee4644bd04d3a64 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x1311be4d991f94602b31a0edafb670803328abeea12209702a3afd40486d5a7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will DR Congo vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Event: caf-cdr-sen-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.08496724251355656
2. Question: Nationals vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-wsh-mia-2025-09-09 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pirates vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-pit-bal-2025-09-09 | Cho... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on October 21? | 78,026,129 | 78,026,129 |
e0c8a64188c928f853581816fdacd91e6e8861ec | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x155c0ea40eece806fcf23cb962e74d901ad3272c1c74a80a92948bc3d42c75b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nationals vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-wsh-mia-2025-09-09 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Pirates vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-pit-bal-2025-09-09 | Choice: orioles | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Royals vs. Guardians | Event: mlb-kc-cle-2025-09-09 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.0... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 21? | 78,026,129 | 78,026,129 |
7b79fabe5d2edd1f5a1e5490e36175cb172a215e | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x28b151ff4ec04d6ce37bb60a907b2db7038338897d53d0ec2091021c939ddf8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pirates vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-pit-bal-2025-09-09 | Choice: orioles | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Royals vs. Guardians | Event: mlb-kc-cle-2025-09-09 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Astros vs. Blue Jays | Event: mlb-hou-tor-2025-09-09 | Choice: astros | Confidence: 0.0
4... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-21 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on October 21? | 78,026,129 | 78,026,129 |
2cd0e11b7daff7e22c7620565de2815d75cf9700 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x55d0de2e10ebc963f45454cdcbd3682057ad21f127d9b9f1a7026a0a05532d0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Royals vs. Guardians | Event: mlb-kc-cle-2025-09-09 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Astros vs. Blue Jays | Event: mlb-hou-tor-2025-09-09 | Choice: astros | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cubs vs. Braves | Event: mlb-chc-atl-2025-09-09 | Choice: braves | Confidence: 0.0
4. Que... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 22? | 78,026,129 | 78,026,129 |
39254ee556129983c025d5af73e58b4609283620 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x5da2fd758537a18cf403a93259b014207537d09f99dbb7c33069ff73e03bb398 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Astros vs. Blue Jays | Event: mlb-hou-tor-2025-09-09 | Choice: astros | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Cubs vs. Braves | Event: mlb-chc-atl-2025-09-09 | Choice: braves | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-det-nyy-2025-09-09 | Choice: tigers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questio... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on October 22? | 78,026,129 | 78,026,129 |
f30da5d644cc0207734b2ef541ca525b3855bffe | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x63300e04d611608850ed675ca823d4978a9a22356fddabb7a676f8445945b99a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Cubs vs. Braves | Event: mlb-chc-atl-2025-09-09 | Choice: braves | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Tigers vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-det-nyy-2025-09-09 | Choice: tigers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sri Lanka vs. Maldives end in a draw? | Event: fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confiden... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 22? | 78,026,129 | 78,026,129 |
35f296ee42f6bd311dcc2ef5051452ffd5500cfd | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xb45dc1377ebafff64979fef2ed54dde17f1d5755816aee611a8b62fa20904148 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Tigers vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-det-nyy-2025-09-09 | Choice: tigers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Sri Lanka vs. Maldives end in a draw? | Event: fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Serbia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-ser-eng-2025-09-09 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on October 22? | 78,026,129 | 78,026,129 |
53b97ecaa107e18a49e3c64fff8e35d983868d7e | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xfa14a96bc8cf1bed97df670e1d2191754e8a981d2c972173407b55fea2a79037 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sri Lanka vs. Maldives end in a draw? | Event: fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Serbia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-ser-eng-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Maldives win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 |... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 22? | 78,026,129 | 78,026,129 |
a62af7c014d4549d178bae3b89132818fac1b9ae | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xffac30c1d3173359b9cf8619d9354003d59212d1d8a9b64b50a7eb57f2a59748 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Serbia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-ser-eng-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Maldives win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9998183353431025
3. Question: Will Jordan win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-jor-dom-2025-09-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on October 21? | 78,026,129 | 78,026,129 |
cfc77e7ed135ff3a379d9a24b71ddba9f0198afa | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x05218d48d9bd2ce098a38e98c3f728b09cb95ef936eda1d6731a939691cf194b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Maldives win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9998183353431025
2. Question: Will Jordan win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-jor-dom-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 78,026,130 | 78,026,130 |
e8bc5fcc10ccaf33d412bff30a0cc1eae3558707 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x078b088a6f57814730b5d4f424227c955c2fd58f0841a410bd2e108f000c3e8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jordan win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-jor-dom-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-ser-eng-2025-09-09 | Choice: no ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 78,026,130 | 78,026,130 |
0ab392ac308452fa61859950cab71aadbd69f19d | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x1cbce8c174ad83e0f1c7ed043856c39086cf6468abb72105052b5229251a5fcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-ser-eng-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cabo Verde win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-cvi-cmr-2025-09-09 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-22 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or below on October 22? | 78,026,130 | 78,026,130 |
e03556cc546141e3d94a95fc70cea1d3d0c7fe14 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x2ca7ef49eb8e1267b54226522a0dcb7da92f91b692ce7bd5dc517b2054683f19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-ser-eng-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cabo Verde win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-cvi-cmr-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cameroon win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-cvi-cmr-2025-09-09 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 21? | 78,026,130 | 78,026,130 |
00f896b2252b3c551203523e35ec742cbbcba412 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x42a63413f046ab5149fe1b7c6525bc166a2db5345ee5a29f30dc778a3bb039f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cabo Verde win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-cvi-cmr-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cameroon win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-cvi-cmr-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Romania win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-cyp-rom-2025-09-09 | Choice... | yes | 0.997792 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-21 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on October 21? | 78,026,130 | 78,026,130 |
a7c86a43cf24df6b97b52ad8852bf81867065653 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x2d3c3b0a864ef784f07542d4f552d78b2a7becdaa58576f3d5fed8492d85896a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cameroon win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-cvi-cmr-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Romania win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-cyp-rom-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nigeria win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-rsa-nga-2025-09-09 | Choice: ... | down | 0.000194 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4PM ET | 78,030,583 | 78,030,583 |
069d4b813ab925676897e27dc7ab934e40880690 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x988ae67571080c447284da32b5312b4fbe6c0f9663748ed9a2d591d112b1ae88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-cyp-rom-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nigeria win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-rsa-nga-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Armenia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-arm-ire-2025-09-09 | Choice: n... | down | 0.000351 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5PM ET | 78,031,074 | 78,031,111 |
a92fbec6d72fc10c7b6130428352fdd2190f3a6d | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xaf26b8e0582b1303ded6278f82f017fa0a0b9cb34f6fe2deaef7533193cde28c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nigeria win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-rsa-nga-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Armenia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-arm-ire-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will South Africa win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-rsa-nga-2025-09-09 | Choic... | up | 0.000005 | xrp-up-or-down-october-22-6pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 22, 6PM ET | 78,032,866 | 78,034,599 |
43ace42ab3f230a5105eaeaaf005d8be2a42ccf3 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x1e0ae9b91317c90dc8b9a4a3bfa36b919582d8ca1cc771a9881d3717b1be1393 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Armenia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-arm-ire-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will South Africa win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-rsa-nga-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rwanda win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-zim-rwa-2025-09-09 | Choice... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-22-6pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 22, 6PM ET | 78,033,359 | 78,034,586 |
8ba5de980add3bf3e66b676325471efa7f06b3b6 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x3f5c10d7c1d6de5412475d4a950943bf660316eb9c4686f119e2ecf4f399a2db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will South Africa win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-rsa-nga-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rwanda win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-zim-rwa-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-wal-can-2025-09-09 | Choice:... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6PM ET | 78,033,422 | 78,036,711 |
a7d7e3fbafc34e3a4760f2c25521dc0680bbd72a | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xd231090c365a6a69eae22765ee75cb3f08ec4d0b328e706361319acdf17d5be6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rwanda win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-zim-rwa-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Canada win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-wal-can-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sri Lanka win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-22-6pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 6PM ET | 78,033,467 | 78,034,573 |
03a9a2197362dd8d6a19b3a923dfffdfc8b17686 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x134be45889b8ff4b0158bd2a4db33c50dceb3a5c366e3b5811eab634b08019b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Canada win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-wal-can-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sri Lanka win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hungary win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-hun-prt-2025-09-09 | Choice: y... | up | 0.148678 | solana-up-or-down-october-22-7pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 22, 7PM ET | 78,035,920 | 78,035,920 |
ef8c2f78a3c60362c362d2f7c28a144751daf0d3 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0x956a1f831eb969cabf7350929f63a335c6660beedb6f0982e1ee3d6d50546c77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sri Lanka win on 2025-09-09? | Event: fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hungary win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-hun-prt-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Austria end in a draw? | Event: uef-bih-a... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8PM ET | 78,036,902 | 78,037,312 |
275aa3cc37994bbabcef8fe5e47db3b4d0b5d967 | 0x1bb1dbd494bfeb4d054b69808ac05445e6c06bcf | 0xc792c5c9660b4e5216c1c9c93597cd9fd0362b32a2553ed540a590dd62afdb92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hungary win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-hun-prt-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Austria end in a draw? | Event: uef-bih-aut-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-hun-pr... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-22-8pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 22, 8PM ET | 78,037,307 | 78,037,307 |
7ac5d4a6fd96aff51dde1174f11ac7a463c71a6d | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x4d6a5677d0b3056aaa7479f886e23d2185762842be480dca0d4dd64b23115d9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | 75,962,025 | 75,964,411 |
a78265e410d7a87240b963db823e028d7c74b422 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0xb9357599e96022b118cc188a264542d8f5504ca27e7d3853b9c02893a8954d57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target mar... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | 75,963,709 | 75,963,709 |
eeb26e969b7e938bd6bbdae72bef0d6213ddec17 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x3d16ed6f91ad7d3ffb1633e792a6b5595cbd30cf8a9f63883ade9e6e97c8bdc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: US x Venezue... | yes | 0.000041 | us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | 75,963,799 | 75,963,799 |
8c61a338555b9dd3e6bb84deea2d89994e9c3383 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x88bf91f9343a4b03a5bfc1ee47e2dd2130295314f844536e2a4755b11ce30bb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-5-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 8AM ET | 76,084,137 | 76,084,137 |
8f68269b7733f14b1f410623183a2cad3583189f | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x9c8fa11c295fbaa2802ca78fa705f9c30639fed69bce34f780d0cb830957c3fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | up | 0.000009 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4AM ET | 76,116,095 | 76,117,432 |
fb6a9b7d3a845fdd7e4cee5cf2f820df5d00d3dd | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0xa09689a0a3a5e50a28934d9217a0075a712d0d7e774f9d8b49a347c9a13bb2e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 8AM ET | 76,122,535 | 76,127,580 |
1268c49bfaa2e62973af3ce86f3e1235dde3d6b2 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0xbea2cf0cd45ac25bc63a081807d07f8b17fe89a2735d31afb477f157c6d80ef7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 6PM ET | 76,140,804 | 76,140,804 |
aa99e96bf536d08cdd802d45f5a4ccce94e2c26e | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0xef9b0285ea99db6201bed4390846ac6626dc735d456a7769d4ff3f929cab67f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8AM ET | 76,165,300 | 76,180,174 |
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