sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ea60b15b8f289121187ceb0ab053b75e1eb7bc11 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x58c8d1ae93b49d084da4849985ac17245758da339adcf95f0dd9963cfb40ae26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-8 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 8? | 76,204,328 | 76,206,609 |
b0be676504d8aad07796b595eec235495accb473 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x68e155f740ab2d59e26954a2a5a94bffe032e617c37a2adf65465ef191202595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-9-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 5AM ET | 76,240,512 | 76,243,634 |
e43166e19c1e239a860a717e14d192e9a5eebb05 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x57115857cb942de65f873c468e9c33079e8220ea1bfb8a98ec053524a07bf32e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0.000025 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-september-9 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 9? | 76,248,628 | 76,248,873 |
25b507552a3ff119f67ea22febb12785bff94235 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x62238f8ad5efa96c02a3da9dc66f5d47dde390a0576339aac7a527e513daed62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-10-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 6AM ET | 76,282,055 | 76,282,055 |
7268559f4bebabbb3f6fe8abe38733ad4b37d69d | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x865e27adf0429930e175cc5fd06075a03d7d374e8f0986d0c2c6bde18325c405 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-10-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7AM ET | 76,282,145 | 76,282,145 |
66d251de6bf5c7a55a543303243b0e1f73954349 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x979dae0204f33b1e42684e50e5f502871343b818661074d5c04a5b484959d1b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-10-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8AM ET | 76,282,849 | 76,313,935 |
4b02b7c5df43da604436bcc295023664c6757ac2 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x7d2c987b15bc771d3a78eed352e3019ba064ed8daf7c5f2f876c80eb71cf712d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0.000003 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-10-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9AM ET | 76,284,690 | 76,284,722 |
3bdef60fa9fd2d480649152405dd7290c3902670 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x3ab9861c2682574155e43e4f1c60cb7fb3c7974c037dee0f33df8aa331ef35b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-10-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 10AM ET | 76,286,353 | 76,297,056 |
b5734878c48a93d235cea1cde04be4a36e9c59e7 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0xe5d668e3863d858b20f342b7f7f35b1d699be30d29b45701c727a3fef627bd0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-11-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 1AM ET | 76,310,001 | 76,313,935 |
90e4b198321dc41a98a4562051bcd4ad0282e53a | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0xa747c1f9d4ea1826e4f129196e56f1a27e01ba52fb9c3354835da483c1104a2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-11-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 4AM ET | 76,313,019 | 76,320,304 |
665b82e51e3767f9be04dd10e7f9eaf674da7247 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x3d655484ba37b00debcc55c1f139dd6385c0a0e2f4e48a868931c6a7ebda0985 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-11-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 10AM ET | 76,323,488 | 76,325,483 |
a42d8b702538ddfe44ed69759dddc39f94e6c659 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x717835a20ef3b4187eae0f8084621c00748c32e0fd6dc3d57bf611014ef62870 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-12-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5AM ET | 76,356,121 | 77,746,695 |
7643b7f8a3dff7686c33b0e0fd707c6bd7bdf2d1 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x4f76eb560ea07ed16594cf21ffa7bc99ec952b03fa72061f575158de91478694 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 15? | 76,512,759 | 76,512,759 |
fcbbd651b636b2620c2615b15065cc506c5a2fb6 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0xd189af84a1c6c02b579796a1eb08af597232d33455c42d9c0f5c98eccb4292cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | no | 1 | lord-miles-completes-40-day-water-fast-in-the-dessert | Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? | 77,043,127 | 77,086,215 |
94ed25a0d0ad1264a01726116a708dda7cc703bd | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x16c5f5869b6867e5962453810f2076a8c88c8a4ab3640a1602c28d68a74fd1fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 30? | 77,100,110 | 77,100,110 |
8fcfb2b72d691fc2283531724d85c0ff660a8524 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0x4115a1f18b26b6f0870edcf430a7d4bad6b507bf63d945b9d647a541d86b7547 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | yes | 1 | how-many-israeli-strikes-on-yemen-by-sep-30 | Will Israel strike Yemen 2 times by September 30? | 77,146,355 | 77,146,355 |
943914606de8633dc15f33066ecaef461a2b8ab6 | 0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0 | 0xf7e72148ee0c74256854e6aa5d067baa4fa413eb2825c2535dd64355f6192f93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US x Venezuela military e... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-october-4 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 4? | 77,237,732 | 77,237,732 |
687aa811884a409f3ef3e0b744f527f2ab27c11a | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0x4c8c8fb54845302dd5ba8a6723788e17bdc34b56a80da384e826cc3487105452 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca?
Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | 71,608,775 | 71,608,775 |
db120064832f3077e254e4491991f3ee75b3e4ae | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0x497d6cf1098ea666aed470ead36e66ab5a9d54ff29cdf6357708a20aa1808e6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Event: nba-champion-2024-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON:... | no | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 71,696,035 | 71,696,035 |
fca269813f61c9c4970dd4c41c78e4f11ffcbad6 | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0x945497f8698902f67ab7831185e80b0b80f79e274348d447dd14507209321c30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18?
Event:... | no | 1 | epl-lei-ips-2025-05-18 | Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | 71,696,062 | 71,696,062 |
d28e0a7779ced8f09896e437a5317a041bcc638e | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0xa4f51ae09144ebedb1e4329a28597dcb25217be1050fb76b86335837943bf519 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,329,596 | 72,329,596 |
3d33e4b02aecd5d95fe1a91669515561d3a6dddd | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0x6ac410efb3f814c425e889eb52aab64f1d8b792fcf3348646b75f45c7800c014 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | yes | 1 | south-korea-presidential-election-2nd-place | Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election? | 72,351,676 | 72,351,676 |
f6b9856d1dfc26863a501f167dbc51e2b68905b1 | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0xf59b8f3582259daf3ca4d0899b3f628d86e7f467797e8f2afacb597dab26d402 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-south-korea-presidential-election | Will valid votes be between 34 million and 36 million in South Korean election? | 72,351,676 | 72,351,676 |
865da50c18bc08ef09e6da578cb14d7fa1d2eda2 | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0x035271f6f738d852d9a8462a235ada2654fbc1d7046273fcb0f835f541afea81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | no | 1 | 2025-us-open-golf-winner | Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 U.S. Open? | 72,823,885 | 72,823,885 |
1b8dcf33585586fc879e22a5c4344df057378314 | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0xfc27a52949b43794d61053f1fe550c5e38d5267359f2f077774c26b36eeb3d15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | yes | 1 | 2025-us-open-golf-winner | Will J.J. Spaun win The 2025 U.S. Open? | 72,826,596 | 72,826,596 |
fa4fdae08bdfb5d54ceb167812128f4d7fa3b2a2 | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0x4015fbd7d31779f1146e60fac7f6a923b2c2aee8da51fc528593c9ebf9b02a38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | yes | 1 | 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | 73,144,334 | 73,144,334 |
da69302b2a219056ae8c9c1b4197527d83e6744e | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0x6edc6c77c16ef3ba1bcd646159f12f8b8a39528e500dcff95b9220ccfbb75141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | yes | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 73,144,334 | 73,144,334 |
a32ba43be9d3a53a38a495fb99e566c59e5ace05 | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0x2a5f57137f93d91b400b20188d2c074d5fe918b395f03bd6f948e35cd7bf0bb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,622,403 | 73,622,403 |
d472e8908525c423ddf56e4c738ef9c58646495d | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0x61ba10266d28104b9a7eb4321c2242c39c0670c1992e58a6c7aa874b6d2adc50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | no | 1 | tur-kay-gen-2025-09-28 | Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2025-09-28? | 77,022,304 | 77,022,304 |
4143f5556df76b593676468945363b58941e40bb | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0x54498a0d67d739b6934c60737e04761f3c18ed32f314e4dcdbbcb10f4b22e2ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | no | 1 | epl-wol-lee-2025-09-20 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-09-20? | 77,559,218 | 77,559,218 |
5aee532963eafee1553033ed518ef3426034a273 | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0x96138ba3100c0833c45cccc5ba1d7e2e0945459a1cea577cc80142d7662b0933 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | yes | 1 | mls-nas-mia-2025-10-18 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-10-18? | 77,884,658 | 77,884,658 |
b0b8b182173584f68b7af4d07b094e602c6f0d51 | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0xce295bc26fb49a30737aba33d7333b719b28408a5a053bcf6b6c85d03cd5c3b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | yes | 1 | next-japanese-prime-minister | Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | 77,988,306 | 77,988,306 |
4659a5a27447e74075d9a872acfb81b6f3ab81b4 | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0xe6c9050741d1a87d1d36eb56898c4bff4de8a7578bf1b7477266daa206d5b5f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | yes | 1 | lal-gir-ovi-2025-10-25 | Will Girona vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? | 78,162,906 | 78,162,906 |
7669210187e0adec0ca7ccc91cd858164ea04090 | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0xe5ab21b9ccb4f358a8b663291895a67a0acb82769514d54e9a14d31d0bef08e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | no | 1 | jap-avi-sho-2025-10-26 | Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. Shōnan Bellmāre end in a draw? | 78,192,030 | 78,192,030 |
84f8a03b82341091ef05da7429940bb0d350adaf | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0xb2671ef12566bcf376193aab6f5503d1d0d6502edc81482e92c9b42a2bf091bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | no | 1 | lal-rea-bar-2025-10-26 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? | 78,206,684 | 78,206,684 |
7854986814dd029f5d95ffb4593e27681c57fc9c | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | yes | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 78,616,678 | 78,616,678 |
54d736a9bd57ea782306059191b471c46b7fbe15 | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0x56a161fce05c462bbe64fdf80b83f720406150b11ae2d35c94907ac3d0eace80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | no | 1 | 2nd-place-in-new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 78,634,598 | 78,634,598 |
f0f7244825292191955aa07e02d304849d0518ff | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0xb8580e841b709da16072aa42a5434d0f7d7ae85377139562b274a1a1a4444e7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | no | 1 | uel-bol1-bra1-2025-11-06 | Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-11-06? | 78,697,834 | 78,697,834 |
cf4f7d9f1836671e18ba9c4642d5bab3986d4ea8 | 0x1bc64666ac7ff862ad03bcbe93754ade1f62c936 | 0x2ca9d3ecc6bb27cac0c4bbec28be6ec12151730c2e029b013fa0eb133b44ed73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca? | Event: la-liga-real-madrid-vs-mallorca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-lei-ip... | no | 1 | aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,723,683 | 78,723,683 |
746b0ca72d1e4109ab9591f6260edf8c9be9e975 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x60e70441df9a45420477cb4b1236e3032552f086b6d4e65670451a0c241482d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw?
Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | 62,376,109 | 62,376,109 |
c14e9d13ea1634e3c389c3562489e50a81a1f624 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0xcca2a0186b0c84eca21ac934e18f44162842f0366352c2ce57bbe8dd4f86abb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024?
Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stric... | no | 1 | first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | 62,587,526 | 62,587,526 |
34b3d6f6bb590fbec7eb57de7ff889aadca1fddd | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x590d0bf35aa2fd267a3c2f83e0ea896bb0aa906e1a83ff812a2fab4f68541e17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will AAPL be the largest compan... | yes | 1 | largest-company-on-september-30 | Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | 62,587,540 | 62,587,540 |
973df17ec310ad94eee4af95d93fe7e3b40c0d3c | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x7ade8b93914ae38b2fc95cba3e6796667b838add5f06ee2dc97b812fbd464c32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | 62,587,547 | 62,587,547 |
3a7135d191711d886d1ab5b746deb247d7a7affe | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x78b8ea86ae5000490d8baf72fbc9f03d666587ffedf1182e3ac64ca7cb12a5df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | epl-arsenal-vs-southampton | Will Arsenal beat Southampton? | 62,915,550 | 62,915,550 |
af8b80b3e6a95ab4f087dceed6a87ec165f4fd5e | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x3b3ec7e11107d4ef9d964af935f0d5a0c87e9f69b4a4c5fe7385f90be286d700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | la-liga-real-madrid-vs-athletico-madrid | Will Real Madrid beat Atletico Madrid? | 62,915,617 | 62,915,617 |
68610c564a36779320617352d83874751bd81f85 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x113e8b09da1fe4da7262d379280d48fa32ddd2d0eef44851e65b3ec3c2214fab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | epl-everton-vs-newcastle | Will Newcastle beat Everton? | 62,915,624 | 62,915,624 |
5c00393ba6b4ba9821a707ca162f3ef81d52ac55 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0xec23b709787d32496790dad920809e9598a4ed350bed570196dee5b63503b07b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | no | 1 | europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma | Will IF Elfsborg beat Roma? | 62,915,628 | 62,915,628 |
2b1e72e3e784d7409f299fd1817129c37e1545e8 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x5716e4c94de53509b56e4e6978bf8c75883351a2d142dd46740c49ad109c290f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | epl-che-new-2024-10-27 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-10-27? | 63,799,518 | 63,799,518 |
f4ec0a8139d73a312b02055bbd115f93c1b73c28 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x95a71c4f8e508de86cd3a4a5d790385c04c73ee28e603e0852645d6144901ac6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | 63,799,522 | 63,799,522 |
b4cfaf97a6a286f7a72c2085ebba053a9ff93442 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0xc65fdad4b98c013eb3bdf964f36fa595f82d0fed3916ba2da6d4568355b167a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | florida-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Florida US Senate Election? | 64,202,358 | 64,202,358 |
b6f6dca2a46a2059093b65f26ad8682c313f2fdf | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x0a573d0d2e1f013707b2b6b5429b35db371fdb31f67909ed719abb381b1de6e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? | 64,202,362 | 64,202,362 |
8e4c4dc3c9a7ab8111b95df861405be7ede6c95a | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x883f6ac0468d3449161454db37acb951bad5b55a7752bc2dd007e40356cee353 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | texas-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 64,202,366 | 64,202,366 |
16d15d94e7656596e586505bd441082705f1aa9a | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x846be8b2fc96f1033d715aeedcbcb7459945abef9b87599a9e02c27ee1c66b7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | colorado-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Colorado Presidential Election? | 64,202,368 | 64,202,368 |
82aa2e9cfb3846c256509c51d856f90a80a67c19 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x870efa69f5c2694036556d1cbc6f15c91933a75314e489788dbbfde966203d99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | no | 1 | wicked-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend? | 65,039,665 | 65,039,665 |
d71af79d53c6843c98c7b2a33ae3bafd6c0caec8 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x6154df852fac6dd9748b97883c03220bb267ad2be71fa215c8df1431995db74d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-winner | Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? | 65,683,265 | 65,683,265 |
b82edfa06b81096fffd698efb2b706209face154 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x2c4374db738725db50cb00049f4dd4e2aac99a4443da8acab341dbbe588ca588 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | top-spotify-artist-2024 | Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2024? | 65,683,281 | 65,683,281 |
046a66ea75bc95ee419f6446b3852535ba5b9559 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0xc3d4155148681756bfe67bb41d8d0882a8a122e7d3762b3591bf6598c9bd198b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | 67,412,674 | 67,412,674 |
0d6256228d103c8477494e17e124b09c1203b1f9 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0xf0c1a75c73b4b07dfacfc2a02ed52c9595139426088276edb46741e5d34ce1af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,877,449 | 67,877,449 |
ce3c0a6bdfce2a0da22904640c5881a9341d9f75 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x3330ac80649a74ff4df364d1b2a69ec98ccdb6a226aa3481ca5c7ca3c9e95e7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | no | 1 | kanye-of-tweets-feb-8-14 | Will Kanye tweet between 250-299 times February 8-14? | 68,638,150 | 68,638,150 |
5b26a8280f3cc0e6c3acf5e012327fb7f0d62738 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x6d7924b77b5be77706b63b5f2bcd003b0feddaa7b3f39d4c957a04beafc46a17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-14 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 14? | 68,638,150 | 68,638,150 |
d676ec839de6803949c503ee57c380ccfd4250a8 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0x77750370f3955fdcfff179d3a8be830ee5ee149b2c4f0f452bbc0d6c62d709db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 13? | 68,638,150 | 68,638,150 |
493c89fd7296dd1ec73b8d23fce1cfdf1337a468 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0xba9ae9aa824643850135ae1cc8b5adb6137f489389a763ad2a5968d5f0581034 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-15 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or higher on February 15? | 68,638,150 | 68,638,150 |
7ad70d883b2c487d6a5407a469b46ee77d596fc4 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0xec499b83b70c5efd5852bb5289b4a4bf4aed22e871ad37369d70af61310ca3be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | no | 1 | average-us-gas-prices-on-february-21 | Will average US gas price be $3.18 or more on February 21? | 68,638,150 | 68,638,150 |
e370c7371d8dc076f9c777649fbbb54dd00a4985 | 0x1bdebcd5dd109654cc0760c341fba79df1e3ba98 | 0xec69b0baf36d3f53a6f8c0ded658bd838036cbb43ca4ff51d87e395cf20303d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB vs. FK RFS end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-rfs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q3 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on March 5? | 69,126,012 | 69,126,012 |
c2b05c259420dd98c027bbc51d16a8d841aeb6a0 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xb12cdf01d1c6652dbde81fa21a31bbedd7445177733314cf16326e4a07d254ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24?
Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | 76,863,124 | 76,863,124 |
22f838f639496246c0a34987a4983becf78ffab8 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xe4b602491cf97baa4618813fa3911b3a84d772dfa9f02d574c618eddb09c2bf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24?
Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., ... | yes | 1 | mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | 76,903,271 | 76,903,271 |
57879933b92c0545435271ea1e779682c9621928 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xc8622b80a382d01315c1bf33bd6d677b45027f103a9fafbc166634895e0e134b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24?
Event: uel-bet-not-... | yes | 1 | uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | 76,903,279 | 76,903,279 |
be0b704564b9992fe9371ce162cfea401f0b899e | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x2d53f86232fd5b9fafe921335a3282b1eed3349393bd90cfad3337331423cc5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | uel-ast-bol-2025-09-25 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25? | 76,923,502 | 76,923,502 |
27ec35b7f9cd383af397efb3527e331892a58507 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x9526ff83f39d91e6d8644895d0ad8727f500be4d86642465d2c168d39d6ba949 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | fl1-str-olm-2025-09-26 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-26? | 76,943,810 | 76,943,810 |
c1a1ed4aa62c497c3f47d781ba103047d52bc25e | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xaeabd9776cf23803da10702e500bd7942564e063db16faae478f35aa475451bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | fl1-tou-nan-2025-09-27 | Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-09-27? | 76,984,435 | 76,984,435 |
7433c5b976692a53f07a285a251a97b84fcdb7e5 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x9f37858c746173751213fdf8efaf1a16ad479cdee1b08249fe14a850d6f8a771 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-mun-2025-09-27 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? | 76,984,444 | 76,984,444 |
8d025462e7cdbacfe976280bd905b7cee1f27d2d | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x5ccdf2f2bf8f9d51d20c4933f8bdec15feea18384fe39cfc34fc3a7e8ab7eab0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-ful-2025-09-28 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28? | 77,047,015 | 77,047,015 |
514ec1586ed5cd9c1776b03599432451aad36da7 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x29aab76947920c42344f443f2f15c7189aba39038ca32735748d9738676242ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | bun-fre-hof-2025-09-28 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-28? | 77,065,708 | 77,065,708 |
0c60aede9e2731fde1ca78531d9bf406a379e590 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xd3c36efd820875f3f4706ed80e12100e62f4e90dafe57749c211b66d6773bf8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? | 77,268,596 | 77,268,596 |
0a0395e5c746560b1e049be8e4ce03d56c1c46fc | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xb220d70c71a65ddf39feb97a6cf18175573c261a586470eaadba71a952ee8793 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | sea-par-lec-2025-10-04 | Will Parma win on 2025-10-04? | 77,268,618 | 77,268,618 |
1bb013d80d81304ea5a032a35c84632a12e189b9 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x16e7f4d65ff83b09ab81793a40af40e6e1bc86bbe8a53410dab8d639c19022fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | 77,820,573 | 77,820,573 |
6e964f8b515db32b2b57a0361d05adb943677d05 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x07864da63440337404544b04176cc7afab17d7af2cbeefabf5ccea29d9731d9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | no | 1 | lal-ovi-esp-2025-10-17 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-17? | 78,011,092 | 78,011,092 |
5f9f5e4776ddd6361545285f2266ea072d463f8c | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x623586509f692f66a412fa992fbfd7f3670430fa3d520623562ff63f81d8fc0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-sev-2025-11-01 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-01? | 78,554,790 | 78,554,790 |
b9229f3de2a83002f34005693d2cb568470cc90e | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xfbbbf6133fb5a8c044d130167fcaefa850fb6542d49c88633ba75affe941ffdc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | no | 1 | bun-uni-fre-2025-11-01 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-01? | 78,554,805 | 78,554,805 |
84b7f8a1a2d18bb5ed20c9d3cc7b33934adde68c | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xe82500d18d809fa111dd1fc17a1129524b783e9a884ce107d4fba3f483b22a27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | sea-nap-com-2025-11-01 | Will Napoli win on 2025-11-01? | 78,554,826 | 78,554,826 |
a44fd8e03cef5fc7b02f5e736edfe778e9c992d6 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x0b1204a446a0190406294c9162330de02fa3a2594404755b7eaa20214ca82f75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | no | 1 | nor-mol-rbk-2025-11-01 | Will Molde FK win on 2025-11-01? | 78,554,830 | 78,554,830 |
4221c933d9dfe631356e5cdaf683c65fe409ea51 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xf8901286f35df146a222fa8e90a29ae504581ba11430f21c053479c14cf3ef9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | no | 1 | por-nac-fam-2025-11-01 | Will FC Famalicão win on 2025-11-01? | 78,554,837 | 78,554,837 |
82498a53d771d9ce7191df7d816794154e282e1c | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xd4f9210dd2cf27ce8be5b5c144cb7439d8ecc35bb905816e0495a4ce4942dc1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | ere-aja-her1-2025-11-01 | Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-01? | 78,554,840 | 78,554,840 |
4757092887c4a8d1204ec51759e7c2efe5ff167a | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x289efb0a2aa9b6160ab78f6d537de43bc9e19ff804b638b9ef5b81571411847d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | no | 1 | tur-goz-gen-2025-11-01 | Will Göztepe SK win on 2025-11-01? | 78,554,897 | 78,554,897 |
778057a0d97156fa9d976cabbd34cf1ebbef9771 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xc01b39629a217f230ee00e151d18d8b68fc207656f085f7c7e1e21a53db30adc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | bun-pau-moe-2025-11-01 | Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-01? | 78,554,901 | 78,554,901 |
edcd36e188c623c39b6f7f24fcb14e74fc230835 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x154b39b0a0367fc042246fde432ee3aa9e16072a7667d8d625034d2f40a60a59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | arg-ban-lan-2025-11-03 | Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-03? | 78,576,423 | 78,576,423 |
0ec9c27731c3a8faf877df2684ca1c77aee16b69 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x3eb22a031e853ce7d3490c4857db026b78a7f968032d8de6effd9d9f1ade6897 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | no | 0.998845 | ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? | 78,598,070 | 78,598,070 |
279b1837e80e9b8b63bebbb24163ba1aadfe7ebc | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x751ca25043da33cab8c9142c0172ce955bd4a8bb6a162c4f87ddaa83325bf21b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | no | 1 | ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,598,075 | 78,598,075 |
5bec8c7968a1ad2acf4262723c8b7420dbd17d19 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xa1319ba34a0c998cb06ba22480391589dafdc8a09758039c6156fca37c972460 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | no | 1 | ucl-liv-rma-2025-11-04 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? | 78,619,651 | 78,619,651 |
4f45d839bfa241b9ff9f0b418b4bd3b0fdd11e67 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x027eeeaba097b5f3b166eace64668b2e6b327acc7c6b314ae5f03b33b51425e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | 78,619,686 | 78,619,686 |
07e18ed8c87c4f642984e8575e31e801d87830be | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x3c04e5153e9e545359d514192121d606579221528f783d0183bff775a7e76e34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | ucl-bog-asm-2025-11-04 | Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,619,696 | 78,619,696 |
4acdef35e7d5df8c75e6400f9d06b0c73d3b1af3 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xddfd3c176b3d29dc20c3d1fde4b02efd5741195c98dc1b52b0205fb25fe4624e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | yes | 1 | elc-der-hul-2025-11-04 | Will Derby County FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,619,701 | 78,619,701 |
421b92507290c40e1dbd8164623e57e86475d469 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x092d7975e51ee5ead6c11cdd1120f049599fdc1dc880799773737ddf025c58c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | no | 1 | elc-cov-she-2025-11-04 | Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,619,761 | 78,619,761 |
43d96c67794a077d11bbaa168448cf9b5edcef88 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xd441bd6fbe29196d13db20819e0c5d62e05a82620e58e080c835e221fdb8e249 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | no | 1 | ucl-paf-vil-2025-11-05 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05? | 78,641,190 | 78,641,190 |
1d3a6f4e63ca150e93785d2a5f350a68da7a68fd | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x88495bc7b3b737c4535892bb66428f461984570794f6e15d01c935cac93f30b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 ... | no | 1 | ucl-qar-cfc-2025-11-05 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? | 78,641,195 | 78,641,195 |
825f8e3cb26e6981b0a25478248be7e6a3c56a69 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xd84c31f4db1074287919c383d9cc526b19bc0274276af7bb1a5a427c6a061aa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mls-nyc-mia-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-ast-bol-2025-0... | no | 0.999969 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | 78,686,436 | 78,686,436 |
845054e61b3445787ca02b7562806d70cd1f75fc | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xd2efaf1df99a25c23a111b8dfeea67e2686405dfe8a2f2ecf9e3e50b9cdc6926 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-ast-bol-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-26? | Event: fl1-str-olm-... | yes | 1 | bra-vit-int-2025-11-05 | Will EC Vitória win on 2025-11-05? | 78,686,502 | 78,686,502 |
038a0327742d752aa95d75074f18e770b103a6c0 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xd3f2d06f77c17ada1c7fdeb7acfbb29f7512b057f873b83e30daa5403d07c6cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-ast-bol-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-26? | Event: fl1-str-olm-2025-09-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-09-27? | Event: fl1-tou-nan... | no | 1 | bra-rec-juv-2025-11-05 | Will SC Recife win on 2025-11-05? | 78,686,514 | 78,686,514 |
f9e3b1259c094037105770454a733d7e6dfee5e3 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xc7badca7470be581bf9e07c7d538f1b6fd30a952b1ef8b9bbfd6dbcd2f033a99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-26? | Event: fl1-str-olm-2025-09-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-09-27? | Event: fl1-tou-nan-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-b... | no | 1 | ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? | 78,687,024 | 78,687,024 |
2f5d0a159dde44fef537ac719a31b99907c86714 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x14808df2914f085897d69e6882f49ca6e42620b9516f031b95ce2aa9906c1d48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-09-27? | Event: fl1-tou-nan-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-bre-mun-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28? | Event: epl-ast-ful-2025... | yes | 1 | jap-sho-alb-2025-11-08 | Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2025-11-08? | 78,749,207 | 78,749,207 |
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