sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
48ed9fb1c7a77567d48030265ece7355bc29b7c4 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x14f68a35ee10054958707d553f4078cee01b23f6761944eceb1ed5ae64b31ba8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-bre-mun-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28? | Event: epl-ast-ful-2025-09-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-28? | Event: bun-fre-hof-2025... | yes | 1 | mex-jua-que-2025-11-07 | Will Querétaro FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,749,210 | 78,749,210 |
f7c6fad609e893f510cc4d02398606497ae2eb34 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xab65c13b29f0affa6bc0a5a95058bd0b3791341c870cb3f095e601e5af3777da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28? | Event: epl-ast-ful-2025-09-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-28? | Event: bun-fre-hof-2025-09-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-mun-sun-2025... | no | 0.795003 | sea-pis-cre-2025-11-07 | Will Pisa SC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,749,214 | 78,749,214 |
ac9a4aab6b9d170d892e2d281f9236c9e7446127 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xe8ea657cb5b515880ecc39509b250db8374cf22dc08b65b516c6d48a77dc128d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-28? | Event: bun-fre-hof-2025-09-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Parma win on 2025-10-04? | Event: sea-par-lec-2025-10-04... | no | 1 | fl1-pfc-ren-2025-11-07 | Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,749,221 | 78,749,221 |
372294a53a1deb5fa5e2732b3d33fd48c6a1782d | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xaa892a6eb872d2fd252c7ec8036e755efdc247242d014b0d2eddf5069be651d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Parma win on 2025-10-04? | Event: sea-par-lec-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str... | yes | 1 | fl1-pfc-ren-2025-11-07 | Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-11-07? | 78,749,225 | 78,749,225 |
08ffa9957bb1585fa8b0f3355410ec8cb5a2401a | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xdcfc00a98044c8c457973605416a0a307097a2fda0af37b2b61c6b315baf1df9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Parma win on 2025-10-04? | Event: sea-par-lec-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-17? | Event: lal-ovi-esp-2025-10-... | yes | 1 | jap-kaw-fag-2025-11-08 | Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2025-11-08? | 78,749,244 | 78,749,244 |
dfeaa95734bd0f8281fa795313950b85c5b66438 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xcebe1ed8c34d44f080c6f96e95569a978b0bd51d826a07e0de36c47c469aac27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-17? | Event: lal-ovi-esp-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-01? | Event: lal-mad-sev... | no | 1 | elc-wat-bri-2025-11-07 | Will Watford FC vs. Bristol City FC end in a draw? | 78,749,247 | 78,749,247 |
546dc28e93926d1d97b0689b8b259a86cef7625c | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xea038ac9034aa7733e8a5b6b595135c3ff29dedcc6b3102f552799995dbbd804 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-17? | Event: lal-ovi-esp-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-01? | Event: lal-mad-sev-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bun-uni-fre-2025-11-01... | no | 1 | bun-wer-wol-2025-11-07 | Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-07? | 78,749,260 | 78,749,260 |
d655b520e3971a4ad9f6afa7995507e0b29e0ded | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x234bb0a1d6a1b1424ff92a0e3bbfb9ec13f5b3271b973d5d8b6b4b07d5ba5d59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-01? | Event: lal-mad-sev-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bun-uni-fre-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-11-01? | Event: sea-nap-com-2025-11-01 |... | yes | 1 | ere-twe-tel-2025-11-07 | Will Telstar 1963 win on 2025-11-07? | 78,749,264 | 78,749,264 |
59f158393d873cc66f9ba44289295237a7157c98 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x913f246b986a8ac34bbefec30e4426e5e444a1e89eca5ccd2438148aa49bcfd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bun-uni-fre-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-11-01? | Event: sea-nap-com-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Molde FK win on 2025-11-01? | Event: nor-mol-rbk-2025-11-01 | Choice... | yes | 1 | lal-elc-rso-2025-11-07 | Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-11-07? | 78,749,272 | 78,749,272 |
e63446f8cdf5c7e9701a167c5e8d5e5deea201fe | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x2fa9304ba71e7419f1c6c7f21ad71b3307dd4655a7bb5e9022e8aefdbe135fc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-11-01? | Event: sea-nap-com-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Molde FK win on 2025-11-01? | Event: nor-mol-rbk-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Famalicão win on 2025-11-01? | Event: por-nac-fam-2025-11-01 | Choic... | no | 1 | jap-rey-ngr-2025-11-08 | Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2025-11-08? | 78,749,279 | 78,749,279 |
90c1ee2c53e0014bb7b1988136b7faf588927033 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xac7650af32658a7fef91b4634a8ecd175ff0f87be6c1b657958e159dd17feb96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Molde FK win on 2025-11-01? | Event: nor-mol-rbk-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Famalicão win on 2025-11-01? | Event: por-nac-fam-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-01? | Event: ere-aja-her1-2025-11-01 | Cho... | no | 1 | ja2-jef-fuj-2025-11-09 | Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2025-11-09? | 78,789,580 | 78,789,580 |
540de377474a60e87da1a4b83138d68cab32a6bd | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xb7851208e66431bf6f324aee935957fc895ca78caa8da98479416b0bb2c27510 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Famalicão win on 2025-11-01? | Event: por-nac-fam-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-01? | Event: ere-aja-her1-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Göztepe SK win on 2025-11-01? | Event: tur-goz-gen-2025-11-01 | ... | yes | 1 | ja2-bla-iwa-2025-11-09 | Will Blaublitz Akita win on 2025-11-09? | 78,789,590 | 78,789,590 |
527e882fec5fbf0b6e8f5cb710eb2ecfe44c77b2 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x0ac01d5852817c82c7289e504846f16c7602c627e5a7aaee7731cf5c1b8213da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-01? | Event: ere-aja-her1-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Göztepe SK win on 2025-11-01? | Event: tur-goz-gen-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bun-pau-moe-2025-11-01 | ... | no | 1 | jap-kyo-yom-2025-11-09 | Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,789,600 | 78,789,600 |
5ec859c8fafc482291413204e9feed255db97043 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x69e0115fc629cbae7c4db60f7b06016244b3dd59c86a3312bcf1d08ae51467d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Göztepe SK win on 2025-11-01? | Event: tur-goz-gen-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bun-pau-moe-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-03? | Event: arg-ban-lan-2025-11-03 ... | no | 1 | arg-sms-lan-2025-11-08 | Will CA San Martín de San Juan win on 2025-11-08? | 78,789,615 | 78,789,615 |
b7e34c7de1a9234a51822847906a47c7e9bdcb98 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x75503ccea21e7b71c2ed44411a138ff3cf7347b350f01ace5d7ac5da0cae2dad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bun-pau-moe-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-03? | Event: arg-ban-lan-2025-11-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04... | no | 1 | bra-vas-juv-2025-11-08 | Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-11-08? | 78,789,620 | 78,789,620 |
4bee057573fae5ada35a35f9be9455b01cc4b81d | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xb0af3a4ed2b3ee24466b68c7255d1a02a9d6cd818deb2fca9588e58c1514fe76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-03? | Event: arg-ban-lan-2025-11-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9988447922284711
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ar... | no | 1 | sea-par-mil-2025-11-08 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-08? | 78,789,625 | 78,789,625 |
2e82d7b52b586617965e0d24c221aba544a7afeb | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x64c14554ab0fd4080f300377f8e532b96b840001bac0a3e3cdf97bc21993e266 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9988447922284711
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-liv-... | no | 1 | kor-poh-seo-2025-11-09 | Will Pohang Steelers FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,789,635 | 78,789,635 |
52167429f9b4ede5da0a35df16e120a067ccb7ee | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0xb903b30738f327b50f8ca59650afe1be3cb18f3bf10a3e99017805388f56b175 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-liv-rma-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | ... | yes | 1 | arg-tal-pla-2025-11-08 | Will CA Talleres win on 2025-11-08? | 78,789,692 | 78,789,692 |
b7f00b60104835a1f22c9f136e969be3115648f4 | 0x1bfd31fdbafc9265a93ce9a538dcfde82e5d3462 | 0x4676c8779c286a84397d3ce0a5843a363aa418be792571946c61ec9af266057c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-liv-rma-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Monaco FC ... | no | 1 | mex-leo-pue-2025-11-08 | Will Club León FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,789,702 | 78,789,702 |
fe6fafcbb6c976ed7d8dbb0c4193124a6ca06421 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x0242a1a3dc35401483a8e8a0fb66a1053e4609ac1f0ad25961be61e42ef3ea0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET?
Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | 73,971,601 | 73,971,601 |
c5b572bdcb77fd4fdb9b1c3034325bab44b33ad7 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x04f329d73b62308041ae1ee5a823f97d62f9eaea661b6e9ebdf2d85d80c8acb2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET?
Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et
Predict the u... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | 73,971,601 | 73,971,601 |
ee2c673c9996edb441bfb98634e5cc7b8dab627d | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x47f61a0e3a57db7f69c47ed086c37f177016a9b2ffc2ed4ed7c5569c9128af84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.690347 | ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2900 and $3000 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | 73,971,601 | 73,971,601 |
ae363dd9d1015b7852b77726ac58ad66251a8511 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x72b9b947b0ce674bb3780dc232b92a0b60c6f0a65c7472e5dcbf130c297065b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3000 and $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | 73,971,601 | 73,971,601 |
12289dc94d0ac9dc5dc62a407f3d959f9f07d98a | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x090d929220ed6407975a79d5fc2c8c6714a362e8dbcb205ec3e7a493080a6667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | 73,995,783 | 73,995,783 |
29ec36d56e8ed4cd8f7cd8b2626b37d50f6e6554 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x1a6a1200a90568609a23a428e0688057cb25d0212638aef192be1689cc2f6f81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.931715 | june-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in June? | 73,995,785 | 73,995,785 |
c6280e8decaefd0bc2e574c132e56d043f157e6c | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x74617eebf0acbbe417db8994f8a706caa77e8e1eb76a93d34b646cef0fcc6dd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.270073 | mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Will Oneil Cruz win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | 73,995,785 | 73,995,785 |
6b7808ab70c2670c84e6463104c22361acf0660e | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x8dfc9a57ae77ee9190635aeb82b53daad2ae6c1bfeeceabc0c4c1b0f77aabc7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | june-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in June? | 73,995,785 | 73,995,785 |
34fea259f9a883bc6c1fe203e00dc07d0c8253c7 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xb2d7cbed366ad8d308771f07b80c5786925b2ff96227aa3406dc045816764d37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | june-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June? | 73,995,785 | 73,995,785 |
20f7f3d2c8a9388b2a1362c30e658fdf9e32f8f2 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x11711deb3edbed835f1353d89b5399ee91f1b6e76aaaea5897c887e20fad2c92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Will James Wood win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | 73,995,786 | 73,995,786 |
63b6e226e9ff505cb4a5c0632a285c6ad93a4243 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x2d2170d58575d9f292342dc6d628716ca0369ea4200ce721a7cdc8b4405ff309 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | june-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in June? | 73,995,786 | 73,995,786 |
f3704240f9b21782f23cc42bf0c9601fd352c9f7 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xa9868cc96fc4f4a3754f1af1cd4210e7e43e8d3d8e75617dd1af1ca77b4e5e3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 0.82963 | june-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June? | 73,995,786 | 73,995,786 |
cdf8a86c614f6739a2d44aba30c0d917a6c58cba | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xfcf506d38288cfabe30dc306a407e486e3b52a9001d2e1983a800f29ab069b43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Will Junior Caminero win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | 73,995,786 | 73,995,786 |
2deea788a893e4c9e480616ffa36f9b50e7168fe | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x60fa10c3691bca03ca9581bfe6362b009d8cb00844cb10ad59dbbd8e9ce8a2af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch? | 74,002,955 | 74,002,955 |
66e0b4c202c7dfebc4ddacdaead0907430576075 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x3d9cad66a81a5b9cd9e001cfbd06c7054a3c972d5efb2bb80a25e50f0a80c86a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-july-16 | Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on July 16? | 74,041,008 | 74,041,008 |
13c0ce5d7d5da379e2bdf8fa79fec7b3c74f2c0f | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x7fed109beefcab5f5f4dbfafcf912d024b9036214e70511fbbf2df53efe3db96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Leo Margets win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,041,008 | 74,041,008 |
0124460e3427aaab8a6ca5959a2531d6374b6dbf | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x9d94cf2fd42439c80c46e31f4bd761a3150106eacf42a2a2bf872c6ecb561526 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-july-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on July 16? | 74,041,008 | 74,041,008 |
be817e5d917455b006dfd18ee8574f64b3e89449 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x3715ee1a84aa476342ac40db1c3144a093e9e1b2a5d50825ccc92e99e34785bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.968041 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,041,008 | 74,085,000 |
86120c8a81cf866c9dba05578bb65e65604540f1 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x880d15ee6ede16d9f1efe2591157aa4d894085802796740b530c509d4da89ff8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.967462 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Jarod Minghini win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,041,008 | 74,085,000 |
f11262bddcd81fe0b83ab696526c10ec97942115 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xb00516a5638f073f5781b779c9be59c506072f97d8e70f0fcf2d21fb743fc0cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.913438 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Daehyung Lee win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,041,008 | 74,085,000 |
96c7d78afe97d982bc6cc90d9c137171876b545a | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xf751e59cffde0c8a2fab132f3ee136a709c9bf403236e4710c084866b5b5af38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.973064 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Luka Bojovic win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,041,008 | 74,085,000 |
73c99e2ef2ea5acffe8ae95c92ef1e33bb33a3d4 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x25e7ce2982bef210bf80f998f5a958b685b7fa1f916bf07a3713c5a6af7e07a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.570212 | solana-price-on-july-16 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $170 on July 16? | 74,041,008 | 74,085,002 |
ef0e07116c4ee3e0850bd03411aa8c7d8cda80a6 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x902317a17f44bc7144728750420a36fb0706da8fed39a0f11d8e35efdd582984 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 0.922338 | bitcoin-price-on-july-16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on July 16? | 74,041,008 | 74,085,002 |
c9c000653cae0e9d1be2fc0912898ba8d10ef74d | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x0773bc20d039c5e14c0eda3cf0ca54149214d040127360efe7f2f23577185684 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2900 and $3000 on July 16 at 5PM ET? | 74,049,821 | 74,049,821 |
b3b4d6cb0a4f2dd662166d88b73fc6e3e4e119fe | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x20e727cc02b9a1156584b713b45f0d0a53259898e2e828ce6efefe12893b4ed3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 11–18? | 74,049,821 | 74,049,821 |
7d71704d1910f1229a3a01bdb4f927adc975d0e7 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xd16b513bac1b9b4788686211889a65d58f24a84ad6434ceef8314137978db6c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3000 and $3100 on July 16 at 5PM ET? | 74,049,821 | 74,049,821 |
d048b81c613262f19c031e5c02dd15cd490ec87b | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xf5310fa5b38b7f5e766a23ac8d55ca52cfe93b89c4c6a82c161f141a78708120 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.717528 | ethereum-price-july-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 16 at 5PM ET? | 74,049,821 | 74,085,005 |
1245334a0e4dc6b47d2009ea947a91b3be264572 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x81ea46365403f183e0bc8b631fb3951a989e65ae85d6f6c0ea8afc2cea0cd408 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.958794 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,051,235 | 74,085,000 |
912cfce39da799cb934faef82b5736ad4e83b955 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x042b006865e79392cc483609ba8d7e623eab4c299db20b3e7aea5fc544230bbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | nanda | 0 | atp-los-cabos-nanda-vs-shapovalov | ATP Los Cabos: Nanda vs. Shapovalov | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
45b1bd531734a12ad8c63b706824e6ec49ccdd41 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x0c4929b3efbbd410836f42c9eb99d3ae644ec0619624d8d80e155bc8125477d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.937462 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july | Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
9bc329822abfe3fd95dad4857eb1e994bbeb62b4 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x1d54eb5eac2cee8f595f3097c65da7d07f8ab5dee63d7c0c6883eb70e1e9af30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.112 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
0f7c74d30cac5eebe7a3e830ce32cfcbf115480a | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x2762fb84cbeb75c3fbeaea2045cfe94b65dfcf1c945e76ebaefce62e211f99ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2900 and $3000 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 0.281296 | afc-south-winner-1 | Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
5daaeb18d556917b2cd64fdbbfb9fca73a7b3a43 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x2b11b4f8ead0ade7aaf791d2176c8c07f3cd5e8e8feac93eae0593e6a62d5bc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2900 and $3000 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.690347071583514
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3000 and $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Ch... | ficovich | 0 | atp-los-cabos-halys-vs-ficovich | ATP Los Cabos: Halys vs. Ficovich | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
cb8a81c716e0391c20e57a9814d41d358b7d2c5c | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x41950d97662d059890eb10578ef90bf9e1d142f505f0cfa941d5b0e534dc2e1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3000 and $3100 on July 14 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | Event: mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | holloway | 0 | ufc-318-holloway-vs-poirier-3 | UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
9a8e659bf167e7d4783416010d7cc9808440ae07 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x41eda073eeca4071d3a643a527bf8549851ff16c7e4b924a007671cb11920f98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | Event: mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9317149569303054
3. Question: Will Oneil Cru... | yes | 0.921476 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-october | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
4d0c2d93eee793242e23945daac554b866591e89 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x43a0e99dec7bb0c6ae5a9166cf6df932a36ca721eb62f673eda5ea87232bc8f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9317149569303054
2. Question: Will Oneil Cruz win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | Event: mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.27007299270072993
3. Question:... | no | 0 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-august | Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
95995fc891a1d6880bf405b15bd5504d3880cdde | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x56a161fce05c462bbe64fdf80b83f720406150b11ae2d35c94907ac3d0eace80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oneil Cruz win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | Event: mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.27007299270072993
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in June? | Event: june-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will monthly inflation in... | yes | 0.969777 | 2nd-place-in-new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
9315a1f8312b54369ef578aa3962b956ba369bd6 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x5a2c59ffeb6d19ec30d9a1a689b0a2f50381d442f9a159ab9dfd2a2aae0948bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in June? | Event: june-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will James Wood win the 2025 MLB Home Run De... | yes | 0.783842 | will-trump-acquire-greenland-in-2025 | Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
31d24f6b794c2bcfb88c39b79c2b7532c992826a | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x62e5fa26ffaba00f51591e853df1431a64b4e499541f8ec9f7a733c4e1dfbd29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will James Wood win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | Event: mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0%... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-july-16-8pm-et | XRP Up or Down - July 16, 8PM ET | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
9f64558b2ca0b20c0c1933dd0329ca56aebc2301 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x695b4c3b69072a90fc03784c39c13c95910fa7430555a7248529654ed013ef8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will James Wood win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | Event: mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will annual inflation increase ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-july-14-21 | Will Bitcoin dip to $108K July 14–20? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
2a265203428bba1838a3683448c09b5897e43fb8 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in June? | Event: june-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June? | Event: june-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8296296296296296
3. Question: Will Junior C... | yes | 0.923519 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
06d0217b05b40f5c6f07ece9db84bd5be18749ba | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x777c48a36a064675a0a95112c12f54cda0b1caf9a64f7450fde31a8a8212af5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June? | Event: june-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8296296296296296
2. Question: Will Junior Caminero win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | Event: mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Pump.fun mark... | yes | 0.075512 | how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
04dcf103701d22c2068a922a188fd9a794e983fa | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x7cd79521e16e9f6f1e82311edb96e0a2f4b2dbc92fd7264a7add59f54b054109 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Junior Caminero win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | Event: mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | no | 0 | will-tesla-launch-a-driverless-robtotaxi-service-in-2025 | Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
06d55d4e92dd8276badff67921440a8e103642f2 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x81bb93bd9d3380269da1e9e25498ed9c939b5ad34316cdf232ec3624eaa6c77b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on July 16? | Event: solana-price-on-july-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.959737 | will-trump-increase-sanctions-on-russia-before-august | Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
fd2582c5c9a3adeaeccfd997bfce8d57a7baa3f5 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x85247de0a69b018eee838d5d485d7abbbe590a54d3d91cec847954a65e9cb052 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on July 16? | Event: solana-price-on-july-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leo Margets win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the p... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-16-8pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 16, 8PM ET | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
80aa258fc2157b7699266889a46ca02ec7eb25e9 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x8ee2f1640386310eb5e7ffa596ba9335f2d324e303d21b0dfea6998874445791 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leo Margets win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on July 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ada... | yes | 0.157254 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
93b17a2f421cc4c416f09af63aadd886a1eefae8 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x9aa6086535a4b3145e9f7378dd58a7a8c30c4b15bd4fe17eb6990817f5cd3cd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on July 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9680408609996352
3. Q... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
7e94dc7968a94f08059348f7a6bd1841198987a8 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x9df72373ccd6e0a23e26d0d66b4b34000b48fb6e4d5008dd7afd17e69fe3e3bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9680408609996352
2. Question: Will Jarod Minghini win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0... | yes | 0.830313 | 2025-us-open-winner-m | Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
2d6b158e40cd994856a8954407a2bc4cd2cf485d | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jarod Minghini win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9674615200574208
2. Question: Will Daehyung Lee win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0... | no | 0.291747 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
9b0bbeede90157d0eef9390ac8680f153d4d014f | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xa76a7ecac374e7e37f9dd7eacda947793f23d2886ffe0dc28fcc081a7f61423c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daehyung Lee win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.913437584416364
2. Question: Will Luka Bojovic win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.97... | no | 0 | btc-above-100k-till-2025-end | Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
367e4366b4abd939797df990edee3ab0a520e68b | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xab6faa3e66abacc484bbb4bd31ae5e2a56d6f6252b5023631f1bd9e5299fa2f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luka Bojovic win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9730635551142006
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $170 on July 16? | Event: solana-price-on-july-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.57021159659... | yes | 0.044277 | nobel-peace-prize-2025 | Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
61fe8d1485e1bb42393aeadaaa97915b00778556 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xb51e060a04691204a9678f5a0418146c4629283b1c04a887501c173b22f0fcdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $170 on July 16? | Event: solana-price-on-july-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5702115965924704
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on July 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9223375624759708
3.... | yes | 0.230769 | how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
b4dbe21fe70204536c7136367794bfd001343008 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xc40cbb2d7f5d2c43c624bd5b1d0b18cd3d0682b3937363ec7c1ad1d13bee107e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on July 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9223375624759708
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2900 and $3000 on July 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.491336 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
477013374578981dbed5d9134ca535029b400c60 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xe84b1fdc087f4153ebf15cfc07f065dd5a66f3caf370b4547ea8e02100be95be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2900 and $3000 on July 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
ea747b8b9a2bccb161acaa9dd5193fe74f370f48 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xeae2edae4d49434c915134a9c279eb417b4f48a4eb3d369971c1baa8d17b8edc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3000 and $3100 on July 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | no | 0.249246 | first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Will no leader be out in 2025? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
a9b411341d6b09698acaa103acbba473e60ab8bb | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xeeb92ddd77d671d1f9ea1f5727208d1fa91896a6d1f657fdcd7c9d578fe5c46c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3000 and $3100 on July 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confiden... | no | 0 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2025 | Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
cae4b08d860c3221f9fd0d904b529307a615a464 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xfb6106cb5837c1c1caa6bf863688200086b8d37dba5365c15df8fe0c43242c10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7175283732660782
2. Question: Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 0.371188 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july | Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? | 74,051,371 | 74,051,371 |
5d5049328653e0d3cb001a77ce05cb5d9a2b0edb | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xfe292ec79a97aad2b306dc55d43b78eadbe5384e0129e36edc31a70e7a94caf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9587936697521648
2. Question: ATP Los Cabos: Nanda vs. Shapovalov | Event: atp-los-cabos-nanda-vs-shapovalov | Choice: nanda | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will... | aces | 0 | wnba-las-dal-2025-07-16 | Aces vs Wings | 74,051,371 | 74,055,219 |
6372cc2e7286556fbde7b45af5aec5ece3dd036b | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xf4c11da7a7ea3841589d46e060486c37f7ffa920fc27048d0ca27cf11cbe9769 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: ATP Los Cabos: Nanda vs. Shapovalov | Event: atp-los-cabos-nanda-vs-shapovalov | Choice: nanda | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9374624173180999
3. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire ... | yes | 0.879952 | mls-soccer-fc-cincinnati-vs-inter-miami | MLS: Will FC Cincinnati beat Inter Miami? | 74,051,371 | 74,072,225 |
08a04b7684cc66dfcc90d095e0c1356336b8c153 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x78e9ebad5e29ca75898e80c7a7eec5a7778af9a33bf5a9df345a0cafe7d4241f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9374624173180999
2. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Event: russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.112
3. Question: Will th... | no | 0.004579 | mls-soccer-fc-cincinnati-vs-inter-miami | MLS: Will Inter Miami beat FC Cincinnati? | 74,051,371 | 74,072,226 |
23a995e90a52c94664e9733fa8f0a1673691a03e | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x8058c51476387c3f5d5eb445b6aaeeb6f6f8449f6a6632b40900f0b9003fafa7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Event: russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.112
2. Question: Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South? | Event: afc-south-winner-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2812960235640648
3. Question: ATP Los Cabo... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-17 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 17? | 74,051,371 | 74,072,246 |
20a084bf84059b08b342a096034f44ffb2a6cac4 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x6df2f2ca434b5bacaef33d6b24edf42845199f4f794e66580de2d2c880a25275 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South? | Event: afc-south-winner-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2812960235640648
2. Question: ATP Los Cabos: Halys vs. Ficovich | Event: atp-los-cabos-halys-vs-ficovich | Choice: ficovich | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier | ... | yes | 0.874902 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | 74,051,371 | 74,072,247 |
24cb93f5b69d27c255ab8be942f86cd3a74cdcbd | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xc6650190880c97ce2988a4452bc6cd03bc79b7c81c9f797540a2f4a764b83513 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: ATP Los Cabos: Halys vs. Ficovich | Event: atp-los-cabos-halys-vs-ficovich | Choice: ficovich | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier | Event: ufc-318-holloway-vs-poirier-3 | Choice: holloway | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | Eve... | yes | 0.864176 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july | Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? | 74,051,371 | 74,072,247 |
56a006f5f82344b8aea884099fb63a285159c609 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x9ed482368b48ac062e56706dff27e313b96ac8326b198fbfecd6e4ae0e3b94f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier | Event: ufc-318-holloway-vs-poirier-3 | Choice: holloway | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | Event: russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9214755295836377
3. Question: Israel x Hamas cease... | kym | 0 | swiss-open-passaro-vs-kym | Swiss Open: Passaro vs. Kym | 74,051,371 | 74,081,799 |
007f4abe51730f5ae475c7f4dd1cd63592fdec4f | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x72a2f135d9f9860d20427ef21fe288e055e6d072fcafe0503d6c3ca39975bd0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | Event: russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9214755295836377
2. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Zo... | altmaier | 0 | atp-los-cabos-altmaier-vs-schoolkate | ATP Los Cabos: Altmaier vs. Schoolkate | 74,051,371 | 74,085,001 |
790f04c3e0a56ecff56c7e2f02ba95950d92134f | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x25ded93efbcc4f31a2c47d80373fe7a7d7524cc8595f4d52b58bba45ec9d1bf6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9697767... | yes | 0.584125 | ethereum-price-july-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3300 on July 17 at 5PM ET? | 74,051,371 | 74,096,116 |
15f4a055add20102aa21f397b24092d5597bd3ad | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xcd1e9513d0d8fc3985fce25b5d9458c0ad3a9233b2364503180ee54d78a43aee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9697767745171808
2. Question: Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | Event: will-trump-acquire-greenland-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 0.562756 | ethereum-price-july-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3200 and $3300 on July 17 at 5PM ET? | 74,051,371 | 74,115,053 |
ada425b472632dd2f4b9f1db3f52e4a5a0ff2696 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xb47c81425ab9755e2ca22b89235b546c0430bb43254b295a20a2ca0df8d9b673 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | Event: will-trump-acquire-greenland-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7838416265382557
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 16, 8PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-16-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $108K July ... | no | 0.169995 | solana-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on July 18? | 74,051,371 | 74,137,374 |
a08046ae53adda11789f89b513696a09634e9f37 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x820c249986044ad3ab808a4fb401f355a97eeac28d1e905ea37c849700e9cfd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 16, 8PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-16-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $108K July 14–20? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-july-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after... | yes | 0.548294 | how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? | 74,051,371 | 74,194,412 |
d75502bff801965f6ef8a13f456600d02689c4ec | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x3794691b634aa4fed46058c8e6d0912726480b40e9b241c647da0431f21eddcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $108K July 14–20? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-july-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9235188509874327
3. Question... | yes | 0.702099 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,051,371 | 74,207,201 |
109c661fb1f27d8c62da2cd350aaff44d0f62f73 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xf22cd39376bfff2626e282ae41b82b2dd569530ec6c2734965c07bd785ae5c36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9235188509874327
2. Question: Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | Event: how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0755124... | yes | 0.497903 | will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-by-july-31 | Will Trump try to fire Powell by July 31? | 74,051,371 | 74,207,208 |
575c10eb0b3100df3c875c85c0490acf83f87f6e | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x8e1082ce158c0f1909c5a79e9b7d72019b9a00462c30afc7584fcf3cf091ea25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | Event: how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07551240560949299
2. Question: Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-launch-a-driverless-robtotaxi-service-in-2025 | Choice: no | Con... | yes | 0.901095 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18? | 74,051,371 | 74,248,908 |
b46b703fa6feeddbfb22ab116a00a0224a6fa79f | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x14bcf124ec70e60b71b157d7f9f495baae0df50c6bbc97e0832a26a90752281e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-launch-a-driverless-robtotaxi-service-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August? | Event: will-trump-increase-sanctions-on-russia-before-august | Choice... | yes | 0.530348 | bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on July 18? | 74,051,371 | 74,248,909 |
8655b0787925e5b2538e919d73b2f01cf97b7503 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x9b384b7a56c41e7181d207e3a46e54dd1d1805200e976abfb8f621fd3dfd37c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August? | Event: will-trump-increase-sanctions-on-russia-before-august | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9597365945437442
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 16, 8PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-16-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Q... | yes | 0.262774 | will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-by-august-31 | Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? | 74,051,371 | 74,248,941 |
b0a7f0ba218e4d2494daa9ae03c533692843aff5 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x9d19e1d5be0193ee9ac33d12286cc93fa9f11373fb40b6ada645f0afbfcdc779 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 16, 8PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-16-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Event: russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1572541382667965
3. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 b... | yes | 0.806624 | tour-de-france-2025-winner | Will Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France 2025? | 74,051,371 | 74,649,207 |
f6b28ce7c07106b1fe277c0b07b737ce959a2e56 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xc76a6112f2daf6d0626a0c1c73b51af958af07695053db40ec54c621904b0996 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Event: russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1572541382667965
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Novak Djo... | no | 0.442711 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? | 74,051,371 | 74,649,207 |
33a4a3a91b428ac26b150f7e597b69a735f305d6 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x4a68d828f7263f34391484404380c34efa9566f12a08a88553ddbe8e285c3ae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8303130148270181
3. Question: Fed decreases interes... | no | 0.943604 | fed-decision-in-july | No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | 74,051,371 | 74,649,221 |
c965373cf046664545a64a397e8aef1e5b9e9c5a | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xa8c893360fb69cc6261bcb142b05055689a9c2329f6e3bf3a54932c2ab1ead01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8303130148270181
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.291747384734599
3. Question... | no | 0.152502 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | 74,051,371 | 74,649,222 |
6653a12b6f4b93dc52485c18d064a210f481811f | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x52dde4a6bf4493e06461504e2651dc090b0e11bcdc6d486f727b0272d8e8880e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.291747384734599
2. Question: Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | Event: btc-above-100k-till-2025-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Do... | no | 0.707373 | us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? | 74,051,371 | 74,649,223 |
c19ffc9e5f3389fe5dd23772d715d4ec1dbb8bfe | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x19a84fd0c80bc82212a9f96d9a5b5f983853cf493733c18a20c88a0fd53581ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | Event: btc-above-100k-till-2025-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.04427736006683375
3. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury y... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july | Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? | 74,051,371 | 74,674,481 |
29647f6ec0a7c0da5f635b45df3d5612628cd117 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x21c3733cd0c9e34118f401f7e268a094f3a867ea3f19692aa47fb188905b0993 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.04427736006683375
2. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? | Event: how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.23076923076923... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-nashville-vs-columbus | MLS: Will Columbus Crew beat Nashville SC? | 74,072,225 | 74,072,225 |
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