sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
47bc751d566bbaa2215515325c5d9aadd71933c8 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x30fdd3b427a1a530d6fbb431e30c79cd432a2098a4fac84db3c70a7d5a18a277 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? | Event: how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.23076923076923078
2. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.49... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-la-galaxy-vs-austin-fc | MLS: Will LA Galaxy beat Austin FC? | 74,072,225 | 74,072,225 |
57e7bb7c049c78549d252b55c64c8810a8f18b54 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x424d564a523339e2ce421cf8a3f872311aab531599c578557a8ee29fb3f5d81f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4913359418669648
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18? | 74,072,225 | 74,072,225 |
8c4514d9c901f414aa55a8c78208ce8adf6869be | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x69eed7d67c5bebf01ecc7c7d705293ddd060a857c755fe0bd7c924d7b81762e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will no leader be out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2492456246228123
3. Question: Will Ethereum hit $5,... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-nashville-vs-columbus | MLS: Will Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw? | 74,072,225 | 74,072,225 |
aeab2e6a0b097559d134ecae8c3306df3d1f0663 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x897277abb03c96ae5b4fce55148ebf5c98c0aa2b4ef02912e64cf8c93104094e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will no leader be out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2492456246228123
2. Question: Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130K in J... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-seattle-vs-colorado | MLS: Will Colorado beat Seattle? | 74,072,225 | 74,072,225 |
2a568566dadaa4a2c2dc8519da966f773959b5ea | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x95b5dd29796f74e2b2ea5ac9a8d3cdebe5aa26d1d315f8f54eb17305764bcce2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3711882229232387
3. Question: Aces vs Wings | Event: ... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-seattle-vs-colorado | MLS: Will Seattle beat Colorado? | 74,072,225 | 74,072,225 |
124d6d1d9298ef404876e0d81465bd36bc1577ba | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xa9f70a47afd536c03d00246e19c5d81a5d59eb00785da06ec733d82302c9256b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3711882229232387
2. Question: Aces vs Wings | Event: wnba-las-dal-2025-07-16 | Choice: aces | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: MLS: Will FC Cincinnati beat Inter Miami? | Event: mls-soccer... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-portland-vs-real-salt-lake | MLS: Will Portland beat Real Salt Lake? | 74,072,225 | 74,072,225 |
8eb3a58226b90dbec4d9e81bad5c5c17070d7878 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xb273210fd4b4a214f886f0d12517c00924f820377657b0679ac1630c19a070e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Aces vs Wings | Event: wnba-las-dal-2025-07-16 | Choice: aces | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: MLS: Will FC Cincinnati beat Inter Miami? | Event: mls-soccer-fc-cincinnati-vs-inter-miami | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8799524564183835
3. Question: MLS: Will Inter Miami beat FC Cincinnati? | Event... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-atlanta-united-vs-chicago-fire | MLS: Will Atlanta United beat Chicago Fire? | 74,072,225 | 74,072,225 |
b750a2979fad0ea4b9f7c4fc13907f947fed5f22 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xc5fe4ca5efe7220a0611b6f90707662a55bca2dfe243e070035331dd277958eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will FC Cincinnati beat Inter Miami? | Event: mls-soccer-fc-cincinnati-vs-inter-miami | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8799524564183835
2. Question: MLS: Will Inter Miami beat FC Cincinnati? | Event: mls-soccer-fc-cincinnati-vs-inter-miami | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00457941672692215
3. Q... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-charlotte-fc-vs-dc-united | MLS: Will D.C. United beat Charlotte FC? | 74,072,225 | 74,072,225 |
3699607e979c18e5288cbbe5f9f086b6ea91e2b8 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x3954d4c907d0e573d9c8e9abc661977765e7c9047cd2e0275b1da0e113125b83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Inter Miami beat FC Cincinnati? | Event: mls-soccer-fc-cincinnati-vs-inter-miami | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00457941672692215
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 17? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-17 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will 3 Fed rate cuts happe... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-july-14-21 | Will Bitcoin reach $124K July 14–20? | 74,072,246 | 74,072,246 |
38f53f078d815ee02725df6e7b0e11809763d0f5 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x5a3dc97b0200aaea720be8cbbf196e3f7660d589a8fe6e29029a3139d154c21b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 17? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-17 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8749024417437842
3. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? | Even... | yes | 0.726755 | first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? | 74,072,246 | 74,072,246 |
d87e613d6d41be2fc073fd284a33f712eb54e13d | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xa6c9c8a543b8828ac55affae72907b1599f0ebd71091dc0a0ffeb8e4c8906193 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8749024417437842
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8641762038436622
3. Question: Swiss Open: Passa... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-17-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 9AM ET | 74,072,246 | 74,072,246 |
fd6d4b4adbad5705dea5d2d4a6429fd48ab1db00 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xf583a661bb95ee81b5bce12cd2e0769b195ea2e071034765c294a3642fc950f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8641762038436622
2. Question: Swiss Open: Passaro vs. Kym | Event: swiss-open-passaro-vs-kym | Choice: kym | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ATP Los Cabos: Altmaier vs. Schoolkate | Even... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-17-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 9AM ET | 74,072,246 | 74,085,003 |
08d4979332a1098ef10b11699b5a045e3f5591df | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x4b01229607e6b153496aaf19388f2660e50a7b418c5669a13e07186a3a275897 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Swiss Open: Passaro vs. Kym | Event: swiss-open-passaro-vs-kym | Choice: kym | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: ATP Los Cabos: Altmaier vs. Schoolkate | Event: atp-los-cabos-altmaier-vs-schoolkate | Choice: altmaier | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3300 ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-17-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 10AM ET | 74,072,246 | 74,085,004 |
2d58889aa030cfa9577c8129784f634d2030071c | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xdf0edb73b740ffae2e1bcf165aca579062b7a4201464a360a33822e644fab58f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: ATP Los Cabos: Altmaier vs. Schoolkate | Event: atp-los-cabos-altmaier-vs-schoolkate | Choice: altmaier | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3300 on July 17 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-17-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.584124513618677
3.... | bilibili gaming | 0 | league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-g2 | League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. G2 | 74,072,246 | 74,085,005 |
6ba87568810dde28eb115a48b1d54058907c720f | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x9b37ee7276a72dd07ce177c0dfcd66c31521ec41c483367d83c33f2ffd9cdc77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3300 on July 17 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-17-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.584124513618677
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3200 and $3300 on July 17 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-17-5pm-et | Choice:... | yes | 0.375894 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Bryson DeChambeau win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,072,246 | 74,248,909 |
63ac67641bbb2d95b3ca8a1b1c5528d140b74184 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xd488ca41f869029f9d554c5b0fafdc7df2d67b29c136c91bbc3d51fc6d1cc398 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3200 and $3300 on July 17 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-17-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5627557473402277
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on July 18? | Event: solana-price-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.004519 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,072,246 | 74,248,910 |
365076806286c0187bb2968bd98126ca3bb4384c | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x05af636e0989accb08334a74f69e5368e0aa28fe498fd16a3ca991e6dc5ae2cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on July 18? | Event: solana-price-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16999460334592553
2. Question: Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? | Event: how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5482936918304033
... | yes | 0.883949 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | 74,072,247 | 74,072,247 |
950b1b78104d43b3963aa10cf8a54a77bcd7e9d4 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x6ee22365b6602d928aa7136f549cc0d718bb16b044a6d15191041b84b5f1f43d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? | Event: how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5482936918304033
2. Question: Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.70209888940811... | yes | 0.94704 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | 74,072,247 | 74,072,247 |
219e35560d26e0d58e70c6f0e566968cbe22991a | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7020988894081152
2. Question: Will Trump try to fire Powell by July 31? | Event: will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-by-july-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4979029358897543
... | yes | 0.49031 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? | 74,072,247 | 74,072,247 |
0849231a5fd27f1fd68b45bfcac84613c8bddda3 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x6b207cd2a1d82c993fdcc6c232c1f1ea93e85b1845dd58441b16e2a8b7ff4d35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump try to fire Powell by July 31? | Event: will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-by-july-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4979029358897543
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.901094822787159
3. Question: ... | no | 0.614857 | bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? | 74,072,247 | 74,137,374 |
47deb26501151754556936756b4cacbe06da2e5a | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xb342f0daa7673f4d7ecb5e311e38301420002f7cb229b430555817f1086a0c09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.901094822787159
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on July 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5303482587064676
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | esports-world-cup-dota-2 | Will Team Liquid win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | 74,084,062 | 74,084,062 |
1eae91220fc4b071d906066fd0b4cfadd6cc3999 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xc9f14cb164854c040ec5e9c165f5a4f4edd2aa749a29e9b3ac07f5ad29065204 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on July 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5303482587064676
2. Question: Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? | Event: will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-by-august-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2627737226277372... | no | 1 | esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Will Hanwha Life Esports win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | 74,084,062 | 74,084,062 |
fb15b96b08e7c471b277549248979f53f4c2f387 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x2eb93075f572715b2d6255916879f4e524de31916106311d5e47a57ede334c1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? | Event: will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-by-august-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.26277372262773724
2. Question: Will Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France 2025? | Event: tour-de-france-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8066236941542565
3. Qu... | no | 1 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,085,000 | 74,085,000 |
eef3b61831370c1e5acbadb56138cbc2b4b5db3f | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x43c314bc5d1efd09d3e97332631dad6388bf5ce7f9b63f205947ac3b5e694ed6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France 2025? | Event: tour-de-france-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8066236941542565
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4427106553722693
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,085,000 | 74,085,000 |
a45398b2eb7711d5071da5e81d5cff5b65f5b160 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x6a63de1658fc2bb962da2df3e15a493e646257e4649592fb9362d4b98cba983c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4427106553722693
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9436040187288439
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will John Wasnock win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,085,001 | 74,085,001 |
a01f822ae0b3cf1fb903d9f96b27d8d821979b19 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x3e539d4b416a65efe80775122cd8dc98c981dbdf6a760452587ccd7fd54ba53a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9436040187288439
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1525022209061297
3.... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3200 on July 15 at 5PM ET? | 74,085,002 | 74,085,002 |
3baf69db635a12de7b8b840671315e6f6bb8efc5 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x844172d50d32fb6df40f0919670b2b039ed315eb1dd44d004aa7de0af2b33d13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1525022209061297
2. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? | Event: us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7073732718894009
3. Qu... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-san-diego-vs-toronto | MLS: Will Toronto beat San Diego? | 74,085,002 | 74,085,002 |
a3897fbcc042423ab07239c50240e77a1b03c6a6 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x0e003e3e37125e4ad78b01745dba3aae3fdff2aa404b487ee0a41e03185da11c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? | Event: us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7073732718894009
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: MLS: Will Columbus Crew bea... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on July 15? | 74,085,003 | 74,085,003 |
76e6d9c0e0f058d016b1ade4c9aaf642eb6feae8 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x8c7f7973a0ee75f5eb8604dc596d69e7a579ebb205bab903f252047f1a53b5dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: MLS: Will Columbus Crew beat Nashville SC? | Event: mls-soccer-nashville-vs-columbus | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will LA Galaxy beat Austin FC? | Eve... | yes | 1 | pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? | 74,085,003 | 74,085,003 |
5b91f6a2e8c3d89014e73b8b6841126c7d1fcc83 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x48a4fb08842f7353f8a9f4aa895af13fb0e3a83f0b7ff45272abb16b47bbf03f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Columbus Crew beat Nashville SC? | Event: mls-soccer-nashville-vs-columbus | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will LA Galaxy beat Austin FC? | Event: mls-soccer-la-galaxy-vs-austin-fc | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-atlanta-united-vs-chicago-fire | MLS: Will Chicago Fire beat Atlanta United? | 74,085,005 | 74,085,005 |
61dabe069f00ba09c0bd953943b7968e683c9638 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xe23964e862871dacd5fae2938aeeec1770fd795c8de4f200935be4b03f097398 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will LA Galaxy beat Austin FC? | Event: mls-soccer-la-galaxy-vs-austin-fc | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew end... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-july-16 | Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on July 16? | 74,085,005 | 74,085,005 |
b6c154de139e90ba074dfe75fcd61a4712ea7fc7 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xf527dfb8dde3c519db261c15856e92f117535243b32b86bb050e9a38fd97d1b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw? | Event: mls-soccer-nashville-vs-columbus | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will Colorado beat S... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-orlando-city-vs-nycfc | MLS: Will New York City FC beat Orlando City? | 74,085,005 | 74,085,005 |
de2fb1317708a0e0b4434f3ebb2006106a790b88 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x1787762c7169a1c1863044c82cbea69008b605414c41a5acae974f3328c4f05b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw? | Event: mls-soccer-nashville-vs-columbus | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will Colorado beat Seattle? | Event: mls-soccer-seattle-vs-colorado | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will Seattle beat Colorado? |... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on July 17 at 5PM ET? | 74,096,116 | 74,096,116 |
595ea153ef0807bba4c19e48524745c1a4958ac6 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x99414571aca688955888051e6b05abd2d13299ab882b4195615de5f8486238ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Colorado beat Seattle? | Event: mls-soccer-seattle-vs-colorado | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will Seattle beat Colorado? | Event: mls-soccer-seattle-vs-colorado | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will Portland beat Real Salt Lake? | Event: mls-soccer... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | 74,096,116 | 74,096,116 |
bcb30cf6d2ac6aa9aea752ad4a64f3d2bc36e4d0 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x1b8547d064f8b849259c7f4e923775916b831b114066279a4f9e41bafd9d1fc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Seattle beat Colorado? | Event: mls-soccer-seattle-vs-colorado | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will Portland beat Real Salt Lake? | Event: mls-soccer-portland-vs-real-salt-lake | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will Atlanta United beat Chicago Fire? |... | yes | 0.987762 | jerome-powell-out-as-fed-chair-by-july-31 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? | 74,096,120 | 74,096,120 |
c97bd9bf6a027831b4ff96c72582174c69276bfa | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x1aac6d93dd9c6dcd7300e6fed9b68592e139a3d4715b3ea13f05fff603e9139f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Portland beat Real Salt Lake? | Event: mls-soccer-portland-vs-real-salt-lake | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will Atlanta United beat Chicago Fire? | Event: mls-soccer-atlanta-united-vs-chicago-fire | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will D.C. United b... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $120K on July 17 at 5PM ET? | 74,115,053 | 74,115,053 |
a2dd7d92ba16a09cc203045549beb5e7a6ffa8f9 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x7590f51f00a87c7bc60cf740f43b1ca4a97c5e9ad583cf4cf94379508d0a067b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Atlanta United beat Chicago Fire? | Event: mls-soccer-atlanta-united-vs-chicago-fire | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will D.C. United beat Charlotte FC? | Event: mls-soccer-charlotte-fc-vs-dc-united | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $124... | no | 0 | andy-byron-out-as-astronomer-ceo-by-next-friday | Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? | 74,115,066 | 74,649,221 |
ecc8887bf13c409a70e7cf493e59f5ed86a759ea | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x058d117a82c5d6249fa2f0e6f6437825ed0a6ad73ee552fb7e0fe825904167b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will D.C. United beat Charlotte FC? | Event: mls-soccer-charlotte-fc-vs-dc-united | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $124K July 14–20? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-july-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3000 and $3100 on July 18? | 74,137,374 | 74,137,374 |
89a5c39034a0e0e9e673bb45c329f8d0f47f2883 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x3f0b345d5913f62c9cfd7b571675208e46e7d8fe65b79766ecb0e05649da02db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $124K July 14–20? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-july-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7267547267547267
3. Question: Ethereu... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on July 18? | 74,137,374 | 74,137,374 |
a448f6c9a2e99657f33242e9cd06f0ac6e73e680 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x7e61d710c545b5016389c3b9771ef8c26baf3193daa8fcd08f1b391d5576bafc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? | Event: first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7267547267547267
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on July 18? | 74,137,374 | 74,137,374 |
a2e1377f590a987bbff2e70ab98b8b54d56b9af3 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xedfbec1376180f5fd1354f023631ec564f4632322391e4e1dc21532522200c0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 10AM ET ... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,137,374 | 74,137,374 |
844447066da04ebaabdff911280e78b73f07ff00 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x51179a929cf3bb4e4f09bb9d1387e90f7c7f91d101ea977d82d75ce15fb33cf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-17-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs... | yes | 0.087689 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-august-15 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? | 74,137,380 | 74,248,941 |
3c57888262813fac676f33627be206ba18f4c051 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x978b2503227eb2ae56703ed69b5c4f12cc4e1b4d80a0415de6d1d7fe0e57e2e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-17-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. G2 | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-g2 | Choice: bilibili gaming | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Bryson DeC... | no | 0.428571 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25? | 74,137,380 | 74,649,207 |
313f0d6db11497795238eccd7af171ae76c6d34b | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x2404b96536eae44f1702008d8df01649b9d304ffa17d18b0ac338f4fa40ece37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. G2 | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-g2 | Choice: bilibili gaming | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.375894331315355
3. Qu... | yes | 0.448944 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25? | 74,137,380 | 74,649,222 |
4c209b9ccce37639e74eb99eb61aaef9f47b1b16 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x2bbd6c702617b00e8e828038ed2f2dcf5572711043b2fcc8f1971226e6abaa13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.375894331315355
2. Question: Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.004519433564326604
3.... | no | 1 | esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Will T1 win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | 74,194,399 | 74,194,399 |
f3dce028f261f31f1c66d4b7b110eea7dd33b722 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x3ee86a850a9f5b495d65ad5e409e5903a1f14ccc78c4e8bfa82fdb4c497b543d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.004519433564326604
2. Question: Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8839487565938207
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0.782239 | norway-parliamentary-election-winner | Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | 74,194,412 | 74,194,412 |
9ed0e23986906d196604e3a83cf769f5ebd2b558 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x80f3bb507bc7da89c5da27933a089b2a580b701e01577e476d297f9745b60fa1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8839487565938207
2. Question: Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9470404984423676
3. Question: Will 1 Fed rate cut... | yes | 0.445277 | 1350-measles-cases-in-us-before-august | 1,350+ Measles cases in U.S. before August? | 74,194,412 | 74,194,412 |
c9dd546097626cc96106c7635382eead8bdc4db9 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x72a1373614311be50874e7912bcfe9a1dbfff52d211e7eccd12a11b87050cca2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9470404984423676
2. Question: Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4903100775193798
3. Question: Will the price of Bi... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,207,201 | 74,207,201 |
be2ed83f3bd667cce890f8d16d7d10f142031ccf | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x7a441a0c494e650ebeec2a267fcfe555f21d1080239f2050703360d3361e7cbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4903100775193798
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6148566814695196
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,207,201 | 74,207,201 |
ef63dc231f6c030413c959e560fd398f0764caab | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0x84302bebb256441ad25bce44b04e52a617e8a0dfab7ba9f48080b3a3ce6c5598 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6148566814695196
2. Question: Will Team Liquid win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-dota-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,207,201 | 74,207,201 |
03c60b9df69a2c115c7071db24b54619efab7dd3 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xb49ca9c93dafcff9f77c28fb569bef11d1086a218b329c53aa7aff1e9545cbe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Team Liquid win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-dota-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hanwha Life Esports win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,207,201 | 74,207,201 |
08501bf1326940e14e8c7b27772e000b2df0c1e5 | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xe751cb68b2c2ce4d79ccc64c8bd3611ad608d2445ccb47bb263937be1fc0f2fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hanwha Life Esports win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Sam Burns win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,207,201 | 74,207,201 |
0f2a478cea19e82c46788fc9630a5e0cd680aedd | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xdd38f1c91c1a1b90d4268afa7178d570c7efe3597ef3271594ab689d7423e597 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 0.963488 | will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-before-september | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September? | 74,207,208 | 74,207,208 |
b12d9e662605f5051ee00958c37484f3d17a899f | 0x1c1f9d0fd85dc7650ca5d3345c2346af7f5c62f3 | 0xd817bf211ae4cabad491c8c0d5f80be2677ae74f07d141baa2972f3b3f5035f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will John Wasnock win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | Event: world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-july-18 | Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.0% on July 18? | 74,248,908 | 74,248,908 |
afe1a4ebaecf666c827f26f77e5b4bfb4d86c0db | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xe36af7728445b62f1e06a904041d5f1455f9c290b07b91fc903696d08db762be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?
Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | 71,297,086 | 71,297,086 |
fa04a1d985244b497ee4ab301e7f485402794726 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x310856dda37a2cc0df91c98d55b4af046b803843a3255cfa6f3549ab6edb0920 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?
Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | 71,297,088 | 71,297,088 |
3c35539e8ce031ff0bcb0a159023699fa6797ba7 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xc531ab3ca41abb7d9c8a77601565670a7f491f66de4dd897fbe560831f3a04b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025?
Event: eurov... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | 71,495,415 | 71,495,415 |
84ffed94b58224808e7dbf678d4148dfd9445c55 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xe9e10cfbca3a0aefe6fb9ba590b1812a9572b2744ed8f656ecb9a10f0752df12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? | 71,495,417 | 71,495,417 |
1bd3e0faae8aabc0a7d9de72e71a21a0b333f057 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xd43a90b2547d8ae5902180c5880ce94490e4c6eea5be3a78270456ce8e58bdb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? | 71,639,675 | 71,639,675 |
a3c833348c4158d08450b30fce4e1137d096dfee | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x6917c5a9dfbd0154b0983916c9004e84e651eb5b8b18c67acd903d960760a84d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | 71,640,300 | 71,640,300 |
7d78824d1f2ceee82240fa499a84c0bb87f6bf2c | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x54377fdef57c1c82b31385a9164e87ff58a92ec6bb64cd55bc6d88a9e2b82fd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? | 71,640,301 | 71,640,301 |
816d1324b10813be7808845408a10f3cf8692d34 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x4f8f8d8c90f5bc2b0ed06e961b5fc9ed3fceca912dc2e242a38927407ec04257 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? | 71,640,303 | 71,640,303 |
de9e7446b67388b584229d39207a97395403b2ca | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x16674f35a243f05bbb228f84c513885315788ed4ab248ed971b3ac7353d077b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? | 71,668,016 | 71,668,016 |
80f0c4c2f0731f1422fbe2f7d748ddd0daab5e03 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x4b080093a8b8eade06f36e577ca260e2bcc37c7fcfe0304036d6dfd051825507 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? | 71,668,016 | 71,668,016 |
3b3e9ece1cfd34934a25c0340c36f940dea3fd19 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x01f3670a29306e873387b7431892a1bc2e2e8a207844a2b3a71fd2a45d6777bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | no | 0.999333 | italy-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? | 71,701,801 | 71,701,801 |
fce0b280e3e6e339a942fb1e61858028b87d1554 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xeab235a8826b431c8a859476813a0ac78230a12f33d68a5de515f05e25de9641 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | italy-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? | 71,701,801 | 71,701,801 |
b25a64ddfa397e2097854b7f9ba45b1984611264 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x5456fae6aa929aef333cabbd1d66131e9575c4500e2aff8c178c10bd049a8e85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | monaco-grand-prix-winner | Will George Russell win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 72,041,521 | 72,041,521 |
a24ec66abe9bbe2e2cdf35262d8b0d4f039e3766 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x760e0783dc8b7a762449bc2182ab21a9ad8d0912ef16eeae5909a23393b4df73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | monaco-grand-prix-winner | Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 72,041,521 | 72,041,521 |
b1e849b4c80eab0238b8ca571dfc1792e0588f68 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x9b3afdfae55290371175b9ffda0067e9fe5065433f0516e0a61cb27fc6f55ec0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | monaco-grand-prix-winner | Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 72,041,521 | 72,041,521 |
1a5a58c8ab619ee396de5401d788ca1418d1d705 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xae805cf9a26c63fdd028b87d99e818f5301efa9e94a2e872bddf493fee58116e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | monaco-grand-prix-winner | Will another driver win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 72,041,521 | 72,041,521 |
8b797ea45d176c73d09d69bd662129dafe2b1651 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xbc1edee5626b8c92d9c77973406f5a5b6fb2ecbdbb8fa24b639c9b82c36f2b92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | monaco-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 72,041,521 | 72,041,521 |
8ad4e2fe44e3e8790245a0a7841a80e9679f4d7e | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xbe6da65a3a9d607e43d44fe3e6abfcfc6984ded13f575bb9ce82c61d4b49e87b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | monaco-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 72,041,521 | 72,041,521 |
cc71c9bfd871ee8bc9d05aec0a39dc002a1008f3 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xf1ec0d1aed38ed9a3c5c87eccf208e820900317c5fbb3185373bda148c51c2ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | monaco-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 72,041,521 | 72,041,521 |
82230168782372025f3f45802cc87a533c287ac5 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x00fbbdc60daaf5c06d504e1e340ec9f75bf416bcdf8388f339c3968be65ba6c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | 72,251,546 | 72,251,546 |
fe011e6bfce566da86ac9547f96bfec816dd5785 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x110dd3bd575a33442141b4360aac6c0792a9bc53b4f8b17bee6d642619d9bd8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | 72,251,546 | 72,251,546 |
268182dbe998dbf62728b1ab2ac71e1bf9e8a830 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x32a51ef3a361bffd1b84b9144881dc2991105a8bb9448f13654f95c23002469e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | 72,251,546 | 72,251,546 |
45309a36dd6de8311cd15adf8ef40fadaddfabf6 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x5776727fa24035f6260d53cf669847b1fa26cbb742ec5b8e988e8dc080a63791 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | 72,251,546 | 72,251,546 |
d77ef1818d644ad8486317391beb433bb3c90e49 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x6cf8b2ebe77711ab5c32fac330b8d493640cf25d278fa98bf65ddcfcb891171e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | 72,251,546 | 72,251,546 |
e861dcd089c68b9cd6e1f40b8222f9f681082262 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x7beceb04f7b1d4f0dde80b58c6f43c23b8ad54b21c693e172c974f480b46483c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | 72,251,546 | 72,251,546 |
3861155b298a9cdc0c839ac5415c353a88f26569 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xd294217c63a1bb5833d7e67308ab60f4c212c1a6e32e38109933db7040a59e17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | 72,251,546 | 72,251,546 |
5f2dd1fc9b26c5f70fd0c42574d287c0a1d4cb13 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x6a71af556bec47f82e288799a073b8d5155954151b83a099265daef730ada942 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 72,856,756 | 78,539,472 |
19cbb2b7e63caa4d391069bbea1e7c5fabb3233f | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x6edc6c77c16ef3ba1bcd646159f12f8b8a39528e500dcff95b9220ccfbb75141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | no | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 73,121,849 | 73,121,849 |
7ca73224d90cfb3638c62706beff38d29e756af0 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x0fc94f5873a1cf7283a84b6c324e869690f9cb1b6e28b5a51eb6fdf8b911e90f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Will Liam Lawson win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | 73,379,959 | 73,379,959 |
fbaa3aa54a2c5c76e074aec8d2b39853af78c341 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x6e51ea8dee653950c1e7e03cf0476cc28d79c7e67cc196739ce5dae883a980f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | 73,379,959 | 73,379,959 |
91e3fce28eb8b50f208a4f8097f82ddb09463e50 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x9b6767bafb2acbf2f42031b03b8fe0f07b2b87c2538ab50b8c6c9e4ba2fb957d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winne... | yes | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | 73,379,959 | 73,379,959 |
9dabaf5fc12992a7224f6724dd387c327e6fe467 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xf1bdac405b9c49936239057d74a865f4cc2d37a4f0b7c08e3cfd9ea12e90ec85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-20... | yes | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | 73,379,959 | 73,379,959 |
6ceed995de5c77402ac5408ebbad110eef3b210c | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xb2701f87a41749455ca7d06d2a156bbdb1bcc58ff31527338fb579e2881d2c41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Cho... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25? | 74,357,369 | 74,357,369 |
e9a10faba475c37a3c2e6dbd135f56f59a7fde5e | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x001459171ad629c285e915ca8c18ccafa7893ddd028116c9724adbc62eead534 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Cho... | yes | 1 | f1-belgian-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? | 74,803,534 | 74,803,534 |
b55ffd1fa0c5fb10dc398d5f6514f9098e459e18 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x0392332f3ff7194bbec6b17ac1b5d70b1ace62ced8cb626134dee310e2886b19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | C... | yes | 1 | f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | 74,803,534 | 74,803,534 |
7f8b402f09e195b0ba036f76a9bfc55c89950850 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x1e29768f54df13bdc02e8606c8cc1dc71cdb91c226cace8f19bc96d5e8c430b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 ... | yes | 1 | f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | 74,803,534 | 74,803,534 |
eac26b702aac1800ec987a8a45e2bbd39d20fd8c | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x6014881c70bcf19659e9e6977f1d0d5a73a83ca739e4eed2df4cc84752e30562 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-20... | yes | 1 | f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | 74,803,534 | 74,803,534 |
ff8ff94478962f6a5b50c23d6b71469768cf8f0d | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x70cfd1d087ea79cd3dcbf2ba2f09433d31b5b39eb71b7dce13804d9e1f1a426d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025... | yes | 1 | f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | 74,803,534 | 74,803,534 |
364254f7b7a9dba2de232c2896cf55a3c3dd9cb1 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x8b65894a18cb9016fa84e3b6c4c375cde24f3c6e0e21d3a93e36db2822912228 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: italy... | yes | 1 | f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | 74,803,534 | 74,803,534 |
f8abacd3e1505468d5e4948e6831db32554d91e0 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xa559577e6bcd296643d3b52545de332e78f60da94178ac794b200496fb73e9f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: italy-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9993332223703395
3. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Ital... | yes | 1 | f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | 74,803,534 | 74,803,534 |
eca9c9adefb77fd477bf92fbf9e396b9ee332932 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xc043d3db96a7268f9c2ca0e4e504be6fec34efc654a4f1d151e916260b3d88a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: italy-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9993332223703395
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: italy-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will George Russel... | yes | 1 | f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | 74,803,534 | 74,803,534 |
ff683e67214c1eeea6b7da1def6ba7a118d752be | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x45278974e16b3d2b2d8950f54b0fdc8df5c7caaad8d5de8663ce83402859495a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: italy-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Russell win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 20... | no | 0.998788 | f1-belgian-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? | 74,827,677 | 74,827,677 |
2452dce69b4ffd93c5e8510939b9218c4e87c347 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xb77636e216631f195c54a7649b428a3ebe64c655421c3212e6001a93548b3a4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Russell win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fernando Alonso win the ... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august | Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? | 75,893,118 | 75,893,118 |
0e366e3bec07663949df4ab9df8b52a0346e64eb | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xb43c9b6b2c16978f254c479aec9c0c5ac6b261fd04c8d00612b47c2917a0a67c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another driver win the ... | yes | 1 | f1-dutch-grand-prix-winner | Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? | 75,922,331 | 75,922,331 |
183a3024b9f9c86a709f96a9b3b0d37d1c5f55be | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x8f64284471bbfe38f0b1a830ce97af8e00a00d906cd804a8804e4aa40df5dc91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another driver win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 20... | yes | 1 | f1-dutch-grand-prix-winner | Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? | 75,922,334 | 75,922,334 |
e45c1479a94d8ff7d96dffc5bd69ab694e336631 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xed5d6fcaaa77dcc80ea50fc85b9efacdbd13971379f0941a9292172d08fcfb7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another driver win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 202... | yes | 1 | f1-dutch-grand-prix-winner | Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? | 75,922,335 | 75,922,335 |
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