sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ccd48d6292f768996ad416a00785c7d423c02bc3 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x868127b7abe0546a9f5feb9ca621b5ac0b49c55626c666df62332841bb0ea06a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025... | yes | 1 | f1-dutch-grand-prix-winner | Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? | 75,922,337 | 75,922,337 |
ba88555e014cd5f297d8c06b973b2200d4f2235a | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x897be8c64326a1050bcafe7662a99ae8ac0b2ac7c16cd2813795013528d6407f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 S... | yes | 1 | f1-dutch-grand-prix-winner | Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? | 75,922,337 | 75,922,337 |
e81eeb136538d7ce37227e120fb54e20c11fcf79 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xcc2dce469d7533dce3f03121a17d1ab3e6db69c994f6c6db4dc12a694e2b5159 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | Event: monaco-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | Event: f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fernando Alonso win th... | yes | 1 | f1-dutch-grand-prix-winner | Will Liam Lawson win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? | 75,922,337 | 75,922,337 |
f21f47f1027e239f2f84c3d64dcb29b68efe3e79 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x2f2090a05478da3aeb4059ec19e74d9a87fe6813f68571ac29157830f4ca4787 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | Event: f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | Event: f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Max Verstappe... | yes | 1 | f1-dutch-grand-prix-winner | Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? | 75,922,338 | 75,922,338 |
78391a7191f6b366f2cfab496b431e5f6b12d046 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x75aee9cf98ba5c8e7b555c4d23a6affb945c77dfed7a50eeee2eb96383374754 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | Event: f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | Event: f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sain... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,198,679 | 76,198,679 |
03be391851861d47b11262302f75c96a71e02206 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x77ee69c3d71289a7c0715fd6a6d9a26527f2c5e093734e8dfba281a0ce203995 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | Event: f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | Event: f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Ge... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,198,679 | 76,198,679 |
f176009f7e3db5874a9a8b8500716ba8439da753 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x0b10affbc7cd54b4e7a3c36acabfe7dd6d6021d604c3ea134ee1601f6b6d89ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | Event: f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan w... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,769,195 | 76,769,195 |
f40ad9ec7e4d74930ef3b2373f3385ce1a364c8e | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x14c35db64dd6c7b5543a132c2f396c7bcba81ff2f342624279008a5f31b2e7a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Esteban Ocon win t... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,769,195 | 76,769,195 |
0509a765133cabce11317aaacdc75801e962e502 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x6a5a181d5e0e3211cf0b300805e79ba3062e823d82c724d26364aa12ddaaef6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | Event: f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Christian Democra... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,769,195 | 76,769,195 |
4d696e6cd69252a7837c070c2e090c092374dbd1 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x7184e20d730bd12f63cd76ca8180f42391ceb535c33a66f07c70c9b55d1890ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | Event: f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,769,195 | 76,769,195 |
0a5f347cdc7fe9fe236d5b33e8d5ebd8d171dfe9 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x7185f1cc89b2ab40d14cbac57f8060c9403c3d3b5ef160aadea940e838844799 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,769,195 | 76,769,195 |
e7aac2444402ef0e365717577c19bb04226b0990 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x7b93416a890c2ae3a6bb5cca0bfde2913401bd6a5d49d503df98542e8783bdac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liam Lawson win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Charles Leclerc wi... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,769,195 | 76,769,195 |
caaa1982a41a8b98d9aa2dc8920fc201e74250f4 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x9901f484b7c0512a04e3aaefe1a1a9d443a6efd5d1688c17bd86f37da20851cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liam Lawson win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will George R... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,769,195 | 76,769,195 |
6ea6f7def3afc1d93cb69d51b83e7204d873c820 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xb7a790e7fe5c386d0e2b7ff2fd303e17d138bad30b37cd36b7ea580d3e10efa9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Yuki ... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,769,195 | 76,769,195 |
3b0938a73984243a319f387ab44530b76d8f6a4d | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xc8ad875ca1a7b346d246b8b225ffc25b3e84077b4609280dea52a9a543392aef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon twe... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,769,195 | 76,769,195 |
b6e31d721c406b239aea150061f281e1a8573f9d | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x9d20c25bfba348f67424ba9f927455bfcf499762e2cc981e8c8fee9ce3bd151a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,940,360 | 76,940,360 |
43e6159ca71f6521dfd2d53f3517fa52c50ae4da | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x9f3131ca0beeecb338abd0ef4f465be009653fa00324ad9328226abe74717dc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-belgian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nico Hulkenberg win th... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,940,360 | 76,940,360 |
955381a2a55276ec1aea16e3f16a9ed5e4fa725e | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0xe179272c73323cd304beb50df57c42f59266f7f69c53399c8fe484df33a25ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-belgian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,940,360 | 76,940,360 |
7b9c103079afd1d3d2b3c9423c16f0578ccb635c | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x6f39d50281968bbf28e07c77d19270a39b100c5ebd9c04fa05c9a9f0261fa36f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | nothing-ever-happens-september-789 | Nothing Ever Happens: September | 77,293,636 | 77,293,636 |
f777e6694e4ca6e03b12d95ac57a3a4d030addad | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x118367d74c71eb1a0da1ec3a5813cc9ff0e02d36c7787eb8a6aa295b2be41c35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,091 | 77,303,091 |
fed492fb158678cd2433f9b6a0131f6d995f7814 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x20c05ebf8793c3dd44f73ce536a78be60342bebf33cf08db8fbbee19c0887a92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,091 | 77,303,091 |
c0a70d2f5661808692c690b0314a0e34ce53b352 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x42622b8e1ed6b0a324db3b2998e99330c4e376b30d2dde831008353581e21ff0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,091 | 77,303,091 |
8fdb697f6aadc09e4b81f88a552824950ef378a9 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x6a2d188e9a31379752a35f66b9c3390e3d7339c156a00393116bca822e6785e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,091 | 77,303,091 |
cd6485eb9079871aa1e97d024d4ef48c52d2c8d2 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x1208fa77d09619e4aae34e59b6b7e589bf9a754ee65773e21d01f6e142f4ea8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October 7? | 77,545,410 | 77,545,410 |
5a6a578860ef5b5b7e309bba7607ac6c2ec2eed2 | 0x1c204d1c39c43d0983fc19621253b0a4c4129e4f | 0x583ec0941697e37afabad9426ff908400e9122db8923929b33f383c195efa7ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-belgian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9987884676834548
3... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October 7? | 77,545,410 | 77,545,410 |
ebc36bba50ca1aa708619c128fe4b5c4e528f62b | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0xdef0ca8d4240fb9ad56025f7d0f92f075149da1d6b979b9cffd7ac8ff302c5ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,931,227 | 76,931,227 |
3ba662050ec0faa7879d3551c3c63ab84e02f9fc | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x161323f322214963c21179f29bd78c7b6aa07267e7423a69aa04d66bd2505e16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25?
Event: highest-tempera... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | 76,931,264 | 76,931,264 |
10e76663b26fa9f89e335d2f63f969410972fe2c | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0xbace36f88d920c2816fd59547e6ae0364861ec2bd126c02b06ce1b527032a416 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | how-many-minutes-will-benjamin-netanyahus-un-speech-be | Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more than 40 minutes long? | 76,933,155 | 76,933,155 |
d517d8e54185e34f4ff59d0602109a1651c76487 | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x8f33fcf0fb92f0893ebfb4e068485edc6d18adf128d15646b0c85762c4501dcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | how-many-minutes-will-benjamin-netanyahus-un-speech-be | Will Netanyahu's UN speech be be between 15-20 minutes long? | 76,936,353 | 76,936,353 |
bc5df7cc2123ad349eeecf68961300c286fb7eea | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0xe488de5962ff55b04852aa5f508f85cf8d038740b57fc0a5a49ec51c2dd6efa4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | how-many-minutes-will-benjamin-netanyahus-un-speech-be | Will Netanyahu's UN speech be be between 30-35 minutes long? | 76,936,353 | 76,936,353 |
1b9998a14dd95423a627c2284787070bf910e2c9 | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x1edc80a4b56130fea074410d07c4aca43a45bf4c144f99a9224211279b89e547 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on September 26? | 76,953,752 | 76,953,752 |
80c686ef99a04356bab700198e175aa1d8f0ebbb | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x6526f785acf7d85e639ed4d50a834bacf92e70707c520dc597d0224ddeaf4770 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on September 26? | 76,970,463 | 76,970,463 |
c1bf8babe8b04e88e1432fc52779746c1c44fb10 | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x3667e8c766caa849c4d11db933196a50c25cbac4b2e5e46fe9d3fea98a07b5f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on September 26? | 76,989,856 | 76,989,856 |
6d48a89f98a82dff85d91c2b4569cacccb8c37cd | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x977c0cca3ec9992d10d5cbab68a0f4d6aed25ed2aa0ef7dc7c07a0b3e1287532 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or higher on September 26? | 76,989,856 | 76,989,856 |
0f07a7b68c67da2ee82304e03476d92474e6a5eb | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x363259ecb3cffe8e407a94d198529c34e968532b30a211c6833267198af906e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-27 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on September 27? | 77,022,526 | 77,022,526 |
95ba0123fafe7967ead1016db9ffa4dca3a28c4b | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x36c1c9839c5e472a0bf108904b7d61ec64d4699e79f7e7b9bee175953451161f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-27 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on September 27? | 77,022,526 | 77,022,526 |
528ee58df477cd52da1bfd26c43be5e1045e2ae6 | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x8f6c0849437b4356b72e85fc0622ba244d0dfb42805b929d621df8419da463d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | mex-ame-pum-2025-09-27 | Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-27? | 77,022,526 | 77,022,526 |
91985f969e71e7b65a57510a86de3b87ad295774 | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0xa78cc8698a7df04eeaeb8e8508f8200e7c49fc9497dd585a53bdf6c4e4f3859b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | mls-rsl-aus-2025-09-27 | Will Real Salt Lake vs. Austin FC end in a draw? | 77,022,526 | 77,022,526 |
0c25bb7295abb2e2f8feaba651e318eed3e3a269 | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0xa8078326b571a49d6aef86d15accaad0123c2361d7ed9f3212c873fa5b3da76b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | mls-sdg-sje-2025-09-27 | Will San Diego FC win on 2025-09-27? | 77,022,526 | 77,022,526 |
4eec00e56a1e669fb0b2be3d0906caf30bc968e0 | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0xd0ca6ff9f6bf440489f82ad61c76ca165c2ef359721157d516d39dcced06bb4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | mls-lag-skc-2025-09-27 | Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2025-09-27? | 77,022,526 | 77,022,526 |
c92667d6191f453bfae90bd1ad2a3f88d55131cd | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0xf250400911e92a4f86a3b45f0d41f1314afbc5e2bd15822a1ef98dc1472c2c91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-27 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or higher on September 27? | 77,022,526 | 77,022,526 |
3399d1c9d4311dbb92feb8d475728166c0989628 | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x0ac2a3bc2e00b886191a96c7aed3e2d0bfd902bc74b3dbb5facd0f6544840b1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | fif-jpn-par-2025-10-10 | Will Japan win on 2025-10-10? | 77,503,470 | 77,503,470 |
15bb9e27472120467fa16e55069b91b33c50deb2 | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x389d3c564fe9c865e379c60acb1e172d9545e54db9ef49cad5bbaa8b3f223d0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | uef-bel-mac-2025-10-10 | Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? | 77,564,813 | 77,564,813 |
ff1c8f936f08f2a38fe4a65206117dcf9c9f87bb | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x87a985deae6cee6fdbb146899b497fb645b58e78d6259860247c59a49d759320 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | cof-cri-nca-2025-10-13 | Will Costa Rica vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? | 77,680,556 | 77,680,556 |
d3a8d41f463343ba546584174eaf26438801a5b9 | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0xc19c26fe06dc7f41aac5a075554ef842d407ad924478234e98e6f3325c0c03e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | fif-jpn-bra-2025-10-14 | Will Brazil win on 2025-10-14? | 77,680,556 | 77,680,556 |
4256e3a4d212931b8189393e7090559a82cbf2fd | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x2bd78d262193667e817e019aba11ba633f9ab89af53daef261cee35b6b9a6cb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | fif-usa-aus-2025-10-14 | Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? | 77,702,143 | 77,702,143 |
5acbb0ddb642b430e31819945d10005408d2a9c7 | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0x67f94c739c11fd320ea8a1961d08e32aecb4f128df71a25a4720a3ed01f73878 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | fif-irn-tan-2025-10-14 | Will IR Iran vs. Tanzania end in a draw? | 77,702,143 | 77,702,143 |
1de1729a2b2036692f4a06cd8bbcb84a681a9369 | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0xce1f8cf50257944ce8b41ddd25fc75f20bd4c4a3b86fc0d8d9e96cd09a0be5b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | uef-lat-eng-2025-10-14 | Will Latvia vs. England end in a draw? | 77,702,143 | 77,702,143 |
ce3b2b83183f2714632d5977a77905b8d993f222 | 0x1c2b46fc70696bff5fcdecdc78f91dd6289faa95 | 0xe7c79e96662965ba25340b778d9a3ae18662f3399289a83d1138514ef408ca3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | yes | 1 | uef-lat-eng-2025-10-14 | Will Latvia win on 2025-10-14? | 77,702,143 | 77,702,143 |
4443a0f1d46d993437ef0133605929f678f0d6c1 | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0x0bea485004e12b1e657038fd8f0244c444381687b12d76079c184122b8f52432 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt?
Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | 62,340,745 | 62,340,745 |
594e6bb625e475e1c64a3837254c8696237168ec | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0xe0fdf1b96652c7a6f23c625180c534cf993ef075b13cc9cb25b3406276df65b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart?
Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON:... | no | 1 | ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | 62,587,290 | 62,587,290 |
2e666cb94c9866c26ce83c190a96e2b1e8ef49fb | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0xb485b27f3bda2a23abbf44ca39cc015bbdc45d088dd8f43205ecd843ef91bdb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and... | no | 1 | europa-league-ferencvaros-vs-tottenham | Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham end in a Draw? | 62,608,630 | 62,608,630 |
fd25329b05e6161c38373ca798f18ccc9b3f0e78 | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0x0dd61c43193b3a39de912205d338d19a82c658e84026afc06aedaefd2e65279e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | no | 1 | us-grand-prix-winner | Will another driver win the United States Grand Prix? | 63,778,855 | 63,778,855 |
454fdd6c48dfc8db8bc6cddd11e9cf72d3748fd9 | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0xbf7aff80b58c93dd0e387fdf0ea8550a7203a6a9b05d10e65bd23dee6dfec0ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-lei-2024-11-10 | Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-10? | 64,141,443 | 64,141,443 |
dbf34fdb75f8f31bf1593b6e79f968ab5c896e30 | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0x537c7f1d5724c50db3a5a48a6a139a40c527cdcff99b6273e1d978a7b885a9eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-secretary-of-the-energy | Will Trump nominate Doug Burgum for Energy Secretary? | 64,567,114 | 64,567,114 |
e3bca8c4b6062f7e2f617bd83d65f474cd19755c | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0xd588cb2773955f195cb3fdaf50dfaf18fe8a188782edb4e64e46a76968a6d450 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-15-22 | Will Trump tweet less than 10 times Nov 15-22? | 64,765,316 | 64,765,316 |
659f54b17a8f417de49ffcf255a30cdc477caebc | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0x28b0b11a8770bdd89b1d8438371d064702a7e2ba6a87a9dc0626e09751ab8c0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | yes | 1 | europa-league-athletic-bilbao-vs-if-elfsborg | Will Athletic Bilbao beat IF Elfsborg? | 64,999,104 | 64,999,104 |
6dd5b88a6907e0feafefa3e31f42265e8dfadcea | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0xbc5edc340f1cf273b29f8fc1ccfdb17aa946f05ab14e377b5449ae511d7026af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | no | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general | Will Trump nominate Jeff Clark for Attorney General? | 64,999,123 | 64,999,123 |
c3984b4595342e98f4035281e3ca7605c9398f66 | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0x6154df852fac6dd9748b97883c03220bb267ad2be71fa215c8df1431995db74d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | yes | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-winner | Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? | 65,413,373 | 65,413,373 |
cec3ec2673f1aaa5241207a0b17288012c9646d3 | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0x3ca956d4a7cbfc2309474b6a1b7cacfd86136cdcd04935cd899f1fb78cb904ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | no | 1 | first-coin-listed-before-2025 | Will $POPCAT be listed first on Coinbase? | 66,200,414 | 66,200,414 |
84dbcaf7298e985786d18a9fcf7ddbbbd07c7943 | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0xb09684e11fb40f40cfb2fec4a8e08fe2b021a82b0803756a90f04e1364efa94f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | no | 1 | ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | 66,200,429 | 66,200,429 |
0274d4207083ff2666c26af755ca9b2ec226c07e | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0xc4a75ec8d2f0c154b2a7c92d65d199354806da12633c13b8e065ab288869173f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-pick-for-cdc-director | Will Trump nominate Joseph Ladapo for CDC Director? | 66,440,024 | 66,440,024 |
7283d18dfaf888c94c5cd8def900e3da4a8355c5 | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0xfbd8f1cb21419473f44a69fddf5013cf7eda269be8d05105d4c3982a38e13674 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | no | 1 | nfl-worst-record | Will the Carolina Panthers finish with the worst record in the NFL? | 66,520,369 | 66,520,369 |
24f4582809f305eb217260b0516cb67e4b5e8ef0 | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0x5d4e8d237be6d11bb1c5630e41309a25620ed5c649772d9a26ae895beaa724dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | no | 1 | popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | 66,679,825 | 66,679,825 |
d33f790ac2a8ffa34436f346fada423b4730862b | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0xc3d4155148681756bfe67bb41d8d0882a8a122e7d3762b3591bf6598c9bd198b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | 66,994,287 | 66,994,287 |
a78c361abe71a9408a36cffd9a4350a52e385457 | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0x93e906321d3d79a4025a121c4caa2f3a26608dcdd62b062d0a58d4f8e27cfc45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | no | 1 | trump-fdv-at-noon-on-inauguration-day | Will $Trump FDV be less than $3b on inauguration day? | 66,994,296 | 66,994,296 |
772a85136b8948818e54ff92dfbbbc98fa0478ed | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0x3c1932fb59e0a58514dfab593833c1e5de49f0dfb20e73227c2faed5de8e71fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | yes | 1 | who-will-replace-marco-rubio-as-florida-senator | Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator? | 67,066,805 | 67,066,805 |
fccfdbac34b791e504d5a3eb765b7d7496699584 | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0x2a86b3971f01557db0954e47e83c29013333e3422e3e9b4716c136823f24f7ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary | Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? | 67,247,682 | 67,247,682 |
899b3e7b2ee668ca27152729f01364d5d27e590c | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0x6b394949cea4f505bbef44a6078f6cd4475b811ccdcdfd9007ec644b4a4a23e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1? | 67,577,071 | 67,577,071 |
15b953c901734f4870f68eee6239b479eed9e8a5 | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0x0ccb9edfc40ca89d099e078f4a34ce0abbe840259f55a838b7e478ef7e69d7e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | yes | 1 | ucl-bayern-munich-vs-slovan-bratislava | Will Bayern Munich beat Slovan Bratislava? | 67,577,090 | 67,577,090 |
21a46766763223f9f8285c50ffd4237bbf7de612 | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0xc9245f04f26a1cbe765e5b80868f113c0da34319895075f6de57db3cde097609 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | yes | 1 | next-senate-majority-leader | Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 67,577,123 | 67,577,123 |
410a121cbfe727049efb7ca3a1130b06a6efeb8e | 0x1c3d340e38e034ffdcadc09a2ba12ad41ad3246e | 0xb7faecd2db357e4634fe87ef9bb48b4e1305cd618276d730b73190662fe6bafd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Ferencvaros and Tottenham en... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? | 68,342,783 | 68,342,783 |
02500f9ada5ace672b3bced6aa933a72e931bddb | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xb7ce4dfc9b1ae706976ee41b50bce77925e1211114b61c197d5b13299bfaf0cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March?
Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | 69,893,063 | 69,893,063 |
fbc75c1f60164f3f9440f1b9e9c558d4bea465ea | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xd0e8530204577ff261890cdffd2ba9ed8dbdce85a6b9b479bf56b2ac682ae10d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March?
Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target mark... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | 69,893,066 | 69,893,066 |
47e4122d87966226acb376d997dd019e4c670683 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x8028f0d4d0399f41108d0ba3d81e33a77e9a8ff1724850f3c1b85874a2c59038 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the March ... | no | 1 | march-unemployment-rate | Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? | 69,893,070 | 69,893,070 |
c3d81fb9a95cd9d4bfb4758f459166ca31c17425 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x2a1bfee95616ade8bcfcde2423bc05d50b90134cbc33ebb014597d002c33e181 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-5 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on April 5? | 70,010,166 | 70,010,166 |
046f902292613fdeb885e885f0f4b7cac2a6d8a3 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xcdd174c23dfd84e013efad8643b4c149064e9fb21fb5fedf76742d0dec7d7a80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-5 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on April 5? | 70,010,175 | 70,010,175 |
f5ff271597885509547ef5dd564f9c24c3ca264b | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x0e47900a48f00cffe01ba138d78556572b017026af112ae10739851ff3477f3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on April 5? | 70,010,178 | 70,010,178 |
11e235030a879e06538210ef984f721125ce0ff8 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x39d9b75adbe97745feafb3a3a9e870eb77f37240dea9ac4b5058de6b21be5baf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | japan-grand-prix-winner | Will George Russel win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? | 70,010,183 | 70,010,183 |
6c3e34e205c9b4612f26e1a8f4743c29afb6e92c | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x4fdd4a2f5f4adcc89c63581a4cd3ae1864d1fad2e8d24c75b13120e3f0dfb2c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | japan-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? | 70,010,185 | 70,010,185 |
6979b1793726f6470ad5048c0f757b85231beb22 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x7e3d89898b6dd33ac27796d0e7ffef84f8e0c12f92d3be317191029a7551b9fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | 2025-valero-texas-open-winner | Will Corey Conners win the 2025 Valero Texas Open? | 70,010,189 | 70,010,189 |
b00b29bea16746873d9013c0d65711df4d823c22 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xabf2145bb94bb5636a4cb5145a502fb3cf101aec813c5fb1147498b4d267c2d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | 2025-valero-texas-open-winner | Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2025 Valero Texas Open? | 70,010,194 | 70,010,194 |
e5b51d27602fb422e22d463966a9bb2a92540f19 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xc10299f1c565b442a2d1fe37262f9c3ad536acffafc47bb9289813cb6c1ab115 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | 2025-valero-texas-open-winner | Will Ludvig Åberg win the 2025 Valero Texas Open? | 70,010,197 | 70,010,197 |
78785c5d07b377465f3a696e73310e3b1be8a46f | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xba4ea4c57af884cf790fb3d2c85ee745229bdfe69b4d7920dd807ef963e8f77f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | minecraft-opening-weekend-box-office-higher-brackets | Will 'Minecraft' gross between 110m and 120m on opening weekend? | 70,043,419 | 70,043,419 |
9aaa36d5831e3f0cb158d4d958a47af79445d8d8 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xefb9622beb4f4889d3170748dcf988134b6c33042b2a40638a0e97c83beceb9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-paris-grand-slam-round-robin-leader | Will Hikaru Nakamura score the most points at the Freestyle Chess Paris Grand Slam Round Robin? | 70,087,578 | 70,087,578 |
2211f38cbe5689ea9af66a58869d435d3d38f06b | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x8206b6102fd79fb9440ebac8d65bd39e4406211c59e95147453548f5e1e91059 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on April 8? | 70,087,586 | 70,087,586 |
08e1fc719b6ee4684f48e5760619247db47c960b | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xe0b09265a23fe2677ebac2fbd6431f16481323732dd203ab2f412376f046e8a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on April 9? | 70,131,250 | 70,131,250 |
f774da79c35c2b9ab1dbd3249f483e895d39d0ef | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x8e02dc3233cf073a64a9f0466ef8ddbe1f984e4b87eacfd1b8d10c725e042f39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-march | Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? | 70,138,445 | 70,138,445 |
256d928bb67f6e753f524d7cd0898e57ea5ab19f | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x6113e78de73ab9668ce4317af561e60390b630ae233c716a3d7f79955e54eb6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-march | Will egg prices be less than $5.00 in March? | 70,138,450 | 70,138,450 |
76f98bd8859fa9b4cc5782cc63f34c059d0be9db | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xd855cbb3067d79c0a93df0a3b035e8c7c96fdf36210805a2840a3cabed5027a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | march-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% or more in March? | 70,138,452 | 70,138,452 |
4ed889e3e2ac72bef82e0456bca0942f845784a9 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x556ba5705a5c2bb0185a329152b07f18f205d5008dffc948cf14836a0ecdcb44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | march-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in March? | 70,138,456 | 70,138,456 |
be93bb997cea379be8be0d2c32d5bd939808e69a | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xbd9ca1a5ede1b1a185ff893c9fc99fab9cec2abb34c9aab0762aab79917ee573 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | 70,173,575 | 70,173,911 |
5c312143816de5ee7270bf98481342802d9d6fa2 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x5d5636328cf2d2b1f0cad84989b3cdfdc69a9452522ffc7a8cfa8fb80515bec3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | 2025-masters-winner | Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? | 70,302,053 | 70,302,053 |
5c2805ec90d68d1d896cddbd64d190e2d7c3127d | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xcc15be7879f727d6c306c24e987b5db3d63aeb59a8c7033e1ee4a765026dc2d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | 2025-masters-winner | Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters? | 70,302,058 | 70,302,058 |
d3ed211862eec8b8e09ca5bec32102571ddf2ecb | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x16db6a711be5f5638e49b0a317648d17c68cb0696b578a93722d0f4046c389d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | 2025-masters-winner | Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? | 70,302,063 | 70,302,063 |
4dd823965d55075d80dd436df200677f9f7279a6 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xf2ac47929c6f7112146b9de14f367b3e436953576acf78f9432835d30196b629 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | 2025-masters-winner | Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? | 70,302,065 | 70,302,065 |
5ef44d20518571a4697ec97a851846958ad59c08 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xa5896f61e82824d1823d720f760bdabb028b54647c3a41a8f056b34645843215 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | 2025-masters-winner | Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? | 70,302,068 | 70,302,068 |
98a4cf200a663137cae2880e7a31c1d76f220347 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xc879411f1f67139751a9f3173ae7db58ee3d562824073fddbafa05c1b3ed5d05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | 2025-masters-winner | Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Masters? | 70,302,071 | 70,302,071 |
8fd772c23add4eb65b726b3909e6473d3b3bc732 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x03ca2849bbb0667f7dbdc029fe6e2b0c5285f1deb203526c797fb4dda7ccd03c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11? | 70,302,270 | 70,302,270 |
bc8594eb053d8db3417b6f480ae33fc07bd94c6a | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x2742cd8ba8bba3faf55e8b801c1e9f90fa06642803ae01cb2d02aa8f73db5b92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Will Elon tweet 200-209 times April 4 - 11? | 70,302,270 | 70,302,270 |
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