sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6c5e9ee71dd7353af928dd2049714845dfada31d | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x33050a70bb1f239462cdfacd45b7717dc35950f77d29529023aa911394c72153 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | 2025-masters-winner | Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? | 70,302,270 | 70,302,270 |
716209ba6235ec57d41a12b0077b7d7645e32d7d | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x69ef19f9f3cfb0250bfe78f882fb3e530f385ab5bde5ef66eb6ba396a8837c49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11? | 70,302,270 | 70,302,270 |
54b2e0b209e5d82590d1216944687daa93656e67 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x70593c79b4b41353f5a57fd1fd5770b518e957cd9b463b27981235b2cab3033c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the March 2025 unemploy... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? | 70,302,270 | 70,302,270 |
bfb7b3fb5a804233ae0f3407a4ddbf9c8fb72a1d | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x7dde8976fcc4241b92a75795c4c04f98433c7824b42dfdf60aa58852bf64379b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? | Event: march-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Will Elon tweet 220-229 times April 4 - 11? | 70,302,270 | 70,302,270 |
df9c8e92de2ae1c53334b2a5030cbdfb9974d32e | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x923972b166bd5b7e49aab3e88d65c101163a09c32ef05ae76217b59f493f23a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? | Event: march-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on April 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the h... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11? | 70,302,270 | 70,302,270 |
2f0c2ed345ab065eadd98c09acab8f693b6efa47 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xcb8162298a401d327612bccf5a784109894c45dbe51f8b2abaf006a964d2802a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on April 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on April 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-5 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | 2025-masters-winner | Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? | 70,302,270 | 70,302,270 |
0205a1087b2bfd8c307842f64174f8baf173ba8d | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x0aecb625a587ea495530f4e40a89a2747ae302316f55aeeac9fef9f9295c5125 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on April 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on April 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-5 | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | 2025-masters-winner | Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? | 70,302,274 | 70,302,274 |
224b31266820b7288067fbf0a1805da54e092bad | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x0b94241121080bf02c841c4a65122ec19663423c80a7d39ffa7efeb7732bb979 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on April 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Russel win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? | Event: japan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 325-349 times April 4 - 11? | 70,302,274 | 70,302,274 |
dedf7b7ca226edf373125e98dae4413ff1e5fd87 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x4fd2adc4e3f7954b4211db930b486a30b5d7b8d4b0818ad3fa62dd2efbbac510 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Russel win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? | Event: japan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? | Event: japan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Corey Conners win the 2025 ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? | 70,302,274 | 70,302,274 |
870969c8cc2d12a8bec4fd69e5beb23466c3391d | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x1fa02db79cad730ae40fb986eeda57c0296c83688074d1022a65c01adae7b515 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? | Event: japan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Corey Conners win the 2025 Valero Texas Open? | Event: 2025-valero-texas-open-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Patrick Cantlay win the... | no | 1 | 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Will Coal Battle win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | 71,189,807 | 71,189,807 |
210d49993ec92ade89e05d93a11bd363e0165046 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x52c64e2773b9e2e0eec678da78c8e6c5e2b858f995f7d0b133c552c127ca6f80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Corey Conners win the 2025 Valero Texas Open? | Event: 2025-valero-texas-open-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2025 Valero Texas Open? | Event: 2025-valero-texas-open-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ludvig Åberg win t... | no | 1 | 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Will Tiztastic win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | 71,189,811 | 71,189,811 |
4d6259cfa3a30f48ab90da4ce972cdbf1842c5e2 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x6b8ce48ef6bc725f773d26eaaecd3d81f1b4de7b082e6c2baabcf7e622ea490b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2025 Valero Texas Open? | Event: 2025-valero-texas-open-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ludvig Åberg win the 2025 Valero Texas Open? | Event: 2025-valero-texas-open-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Minecraft' gross b... | no | 1 | 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Will Owen Almighty win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | 71,189,829 | 71,189,829 |
b4ecf8445f84b950db7ae6e95a240228279b4a32 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x469c78ebc115d2e12031fe1bb2c888cf1f5fe3c98609cb9ddb80f6dd9675c25c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ludvig Åberg win the 2025 Valero Texas Open? | Event: 2025-valero-texas-open-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Minecraft' gross between 110m and 120m on opening weekend? | Event: minecraft-opening-weekend-box-office-higher-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on April 15? | 71,189,842 | 71,189,842 |
2c98e2102be969e3611de5463929be141b1a2e77 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xd41fe4b18004d6519c2f167cce3b58f988ca35072fd8c0c9914edc5fe07bacc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Minecraft' gross between 110m and 120m on opening weekend? | Event: minecraft-opening-weekend-box-office-higher-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hikaru Nakamura score the most points at the Freestyle Chess Paris Grand Slam Round Robin? | Event: freestyle-chess-p... | no | 1 | 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Will Chunk of Gold win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | 71,189,871 | 71,189,871 |
d490b93e55a3c5dd4973dfe8befa6c2c72d06ab5 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xb78effd6ba8eaadeafaa4ad680a12a09f9be70d700012119a79510023f99639d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hikaru Nakamura score the most points at the Freestyle Chess Paris Grand Slam Round Robin? | Event: freestyle-chess-paris-grand-slam-round-robin-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on April 8? | Event: highest-tempe... | no | 1 | 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Will East Avenue win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | 71,189,874 | 71,189,874 |
3f36580d0128ad011c6c3f68f890893cb556b8ad | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x4d931123299078431ed1749e1a0278afa26304ffb091a33efdc792e7a080aae8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on April 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on April 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-9 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-april-2025 | Will the ECB announce no change? | 71,189,879 | 71,189,879 |
d4752eb1e51f74462f70596a7bd1ace298e5cfbd | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x237823b232dfc997e5f8fa8a50d85d6e5181c45d2dc541880690a9e2bf94075c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on April 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on April 15? | 71,189,883 | 71,189,883 |
3e7701d64ea48fe0f62a3081d611aa246222610d | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xa6582ab7c7281db823679cad4d9d9f0450aea7ed020d16848435e31d7afd3980 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be less than $5.00 in March? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on April 15? | 71,189,885 | 71,189,885 |
6cfc723dd4fe1a04012ba5f217726d1d43c74920 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xf2c49e2dea8085f7b7f6123866e026044163481e23816c193edf04b216063e79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will egg prices be less than $5.00 in March? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% or more in March? | Event: march-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will monthly inflation increase b... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-15 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on April 15? | 71,189,890 | 71,189,890 |
74d784033f100d8ba87036d2af2ea2cc9f50fa8f | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x14ebc0ede61a12aaad2da1c7c591376ab8a61b9e71c671de49fc653ce6e1999f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% or more in March? | Event: march-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in March? | Event: march-inflation-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? | 71,390,687 | 71,390,687 |
d00036374b8d0d99f675f22b60af5504ce8bc13e | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x2142c381b468e22a47326402186eded029f9ff6336ee30cc0c6eecce993be6a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in March? | Event: march-inflation-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-9-233 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? | 71,390,687 | 71,390,687 |
9394015e6c8d835ab537b54f41a1c27877e17b44 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x579286efe3fbdf24e992d1fdc0a44160a437c6bfdd3bb4fcf2d6780f4205960f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hideki Ma... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-9 | Will Trump's approval rating be 45.0% or higher on May 9? | 71,390,687 | 71,390,687 |
868f4cd477117adecf08afe644191c647b1321d0 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x594df4f4d61ebafbd334fc5f3af9fe5ad382daccbf99dc83eeac8f33d1810ef6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-maste... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? | 71,390,687 | 71,390,687 |
768cbf6da570a5896679ba572f907838d1847e12 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xc4f41459ea9dd8bf14bfd96c0f7733fff8d94e63330b87a010008b0cff5e5e16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-9 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 9? | 71,390,687 | 71,390,687 |
468a7ff6fdddc8d91927022b8f4fa011a66211c0 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xf211a2877117660d9369cd9941a9f88451fc39c26457a9d3e2e4baa8d7794664 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-9 | Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 9? | 71,390,687 | 71,390,687 |
c29786344e7e35c341719f8609a416fa18dbf057 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x65d5ec71fd433c476c53e8631a863e7236860603620e5e6acfbf79cca429959a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-w... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-9 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? | 71,390,692 | 71,390,692 |
bd7cfe787c6f70dfb59046f42f3363efd2a911dc | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x9a44559e85e32028aef056e609d4e35b1fb87f11e584c78eb43d3b56ad2d81b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-... | no | 1 | dota-blast-slam-iii | Will Team Tidebound win the BLAST Slam III Tournament? | 71,390,692 | 71,390,692 |
c5bbaab8c3484b45e7d5b99156ec37690a19d841 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x3b204a2e606ede892afe1af642f7956be7812fc4054ee71e4aedab18859e5807 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 200-209 times April ... | no | 1 | indian-premier-league-champion-2025 | Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? | 71,823,983 | 71,823,983 |
57fc6bf3f3ecb6104e6072e1f799d7b6ce2a9b3b | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x531b7ef8ded00b2fde5ceff16069a249bcd2b2020ee373cfb3f3ab4a1aded361 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 200-209 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will To... | no | 1 | italy-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Italy GP pole? | 71,823,983 | 71,823,983 |
bb3a26151313006f390e363c0aea214fe27651ae | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x676aba03f5ca39dcaab0a508ae201e016f1df2afef61ba1062a03a2e0816dc9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200-209 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Apri... | no | 1 | italy-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Italy GP pole? | 71,823,983 | 71,823,983 |
6019ae66d6ecf30446c6e14179b2017b3e80b03d | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xa8eda67771f6ff80d21539587af9dc918771e41decbbaba8429c9282c7df8650 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? | Eve... | no | 1 | italy-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 Italy GP pole? | 71,823,983 | 71,823,983 |
4c319e865fb0160dc131fa75437bd2d1f3298a59 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xb409b29576132e6b5c6ce042791711a18ce3f981bfb3580a278d789b9acf671f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 220-229 times April 4... | no | 1 | italy-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Italy GP pole? | 71,823,983 | 71,823,983 |
56db3053439c6c03d70f57ee77c1520bcb6bf061 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xb6901cc093b3bebf4edc56af0cad68bb75cb4d8cfab93d415daa4da87e916da0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 220-229 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250 or... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23? | 71,823,983 | 71,823,983 |
15b1f237e7afa850f0bd4245cb771001b4912cc2 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xf3ebde81a2ba51cabf90cd2d0e6926b617b6724fda8e6d9f24d21b1704ecb5b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 220-229 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | 2025-chesscom-classic | Will Ding Liren win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? | 71,823,983 | 71,823,983 |
e5e427d17119f9b88b0e1b2b49cba996048f5158 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xfa227201b6bbb0398580ed3ae9f3139dd25ba8f073ac8f055f79c747667664d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Justin Thomas win The 2... | no | 1 | 2025-chesscom-classic | Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? | 71,823,983 | 71,823,983 |
3229638cf20cfd9b8e60897c9428db8ecbe78762 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0xfd2662f7bfd46c1cba6e2519eab82c2ec291f3296c889b92899f09d1526f79e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 325-349 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-mus... | no | 1 | final-destination-bloodlines-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross less than $40m opening weekend? | 71,823,983 | 71,823,983 |
00e4784c269660992b9ea50ab96ddbcd10a6611c | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x078e96e4cbcb0bdbb52d3011d6ddf08a99b044b991d84be7d052a61b5c1b49dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 325-349 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? |... | no | 1 | cs2-iem-dallas | Will Legacy win the IEM Dallas tournament? | 71,823,984 | 71,823,984 |
80d58a16c8999e09319567d8126152fc5bb639e8 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x0f41f05748e644cd46d3152153213f9012069f7f1bd9790735bf94cc4ab5e2e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 325-349 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Coal Battle win the 2025 ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-20 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or higher on May 20? | 71,823,984 | 71,823,984 |
4ace41a5779e5ce9d71d49434507e3969e743684 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x1a5c7546c2d8ac9d44333615a8364b87b4c691d182becc7f7ed1fe268f60f9cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coal Battle win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | Event: 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tiztastic win the 2025 Kent... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23? | 71,823,984 | 71,823,984 |
ce320295e0b589c5669b6b74f1f2da03d3288eeb | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x3a5678e0ed855cc9f967be6704d58e269c007f511370fb36dfd2ec24c1cd69cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coal Battle win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | Event: 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tiztastic win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | Event: 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Owen Almighty win the 2025 Kentucky De... | no | 1 | 2025-iihf-world-championship-544 | Will Slovakia win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? | 71,823,984 | 71,823,984 |
e0c28df331b216ce2313e9c5d934022867fc1418 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x4d16d1b804bc73a6a9c34e285c3a1ff2194ed096279cc44cdb94429cd29f9f69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tiztastic win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | Event: 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Owen Almighty win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | Event: 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 16? | 71,823,984 | 71,823,984 |
404e4997c0391b2e423aa9dd1930032f40ab034f | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x616dfd62de3285cbb0dfb75af649b9faf5583ffe2521a6063123873b279b6553 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Owen Almighty win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | Event: 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on April 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | 2025-chesscom-classic | Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? | 71,823,984 | 71,823,984 |
7ef291199dcb0ad10af4719d409e6a2c9fa44265 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x8bfc9127c35d3eeb5ad5a5bb7d6912425cc609b74fd9606ead21258cdc9e0681 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on April 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chunk of Gold win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | Event: 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | cs2-iem-dallas | Will G2 win the IEM Dallas tournament? | 71,823,984 | 71,823,984 |
15e63dc3499538302cb2a10d26da5861466b0ea1 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x239161bc622f2a41fab0eaf0bf11c2404308817b074f20ca43aff36c0d56b44d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chunk of Gold win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | Event: 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will East Avenue win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | Event: 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ECB announce no change? | Even... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or below on May 19? | 71,823,988 | 71,823,988 |
f50a0728a0b7a204267c5929c6f1a1b64fa01fc6 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x2613b21bde74b28ab3c27ad4df389369202228e771377f8a498f148440e50ce2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will East Avenue win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? | Event: 2025-kentucky-derby-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the ECB announce no change? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-april-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or b... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-20 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61–62°F on May 20? | 71,823,988 | 71,823,988 |
f8225c12ebc93ea5bce5883489e63f6ceec13d44 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x42041b01ecaf7d76bd124d5d5fcbfc76132b59884cc46ba30223f3e790286e68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the ECB announce no change? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-april-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on April 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the high... | no | 1 | italy-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will George Russell win the 2025 Italy GP pole? | 71,823,988 | 71,823,988 |
61a5a6bdb7e0d93576aeee93c75e643c415c581c | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x46224ce69464496a96a82e798fa7a2833e14d365b1167227524e7866f2815f6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on April 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on April 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-15 | Choic... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? | 71,823,988 | 71,823,988 |
26e6f4d1500410b49c3272b8f98ce33305abe6de | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x5ec7efde0daa08e4ba0d8d36354fae57f68db9788e9be5e7138702c571cb25ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on April 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on April 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-15 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108000 and $110000 on May 16? | 71,823,988 | 71,823,988 |
26f48f4d2c0e367710c4da1d30400634c8ad1b88 | 0x1c465a5dc8bdd97c3aaf5bd8c3b2e25cb8e48d1b | 0x620ae310535612c3456982400566568f6b3cec9b2d448502226afd002b313c5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on April 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pr... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be 71°F or higher on May 18? | 71,823,988 | 71,823,988 |
6eab6aa80e8777230c522d54c34a8a4d3f052185 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x8d7205b88286dae5f1bd78aed185bc72354df0e53b462713319ee7ea7d922400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle?
Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | 59,889,182 | 59,889,182 |
b1f357fa16732599b8402e703b77a5903e254534 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x6a3505e58d416f98c3b7bda049507250def78c2e9c18fa0531d5637b41c87c83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay?
Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner
Predict the user's choice and ... | yes | 1 | 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | 59,889,217 | 59,889,217 |
6352e53cf29268b9f58972105fe4624e833d55e5 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x6d0bd3df3e6dd156a397998f37b5c2962f61fd34b37d2ed2b8bc9bd89241585c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target ma... | yes | 1 | 4x100m-freestyle-relay-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Australia win Gold in Women's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | 59,889,217 | 59,889,217 |
c27edc1f884d03e63216ad0cf78071f2544ac932 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x85268124aaf9669b54fde6fd7637aaf3ec3be92200fccdfc00d71b168843bc9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | 100m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 100m Breaststroke? | 59,979,493 | 59,979,493 |
3d456b13e6e37e48e5e80b24f6109d92fea3f4b3 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x8a8a2374b8a5497700eadca909ba22e59158b6b77bde0e07299eaa225c870363 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | 100m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Jiayu Xu (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke? | 59,979,493 | 59,979,493 |
2720757660181606304899ee463acddf680c4798 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xcc58cdb95fd2da9e0ed86636e1464a9108a987b832019835ee6d12823cacdb4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | 100m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Tatjana Smith (RSA) win Gold in Women's 100m Breaststroke? | 59,979,493 | 59,979,493 |
4bf889a46ee973c2ac1dff1f510b16c45425b01e | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x579e4651cb8436942b2f3c0b5593e521ffd70622321d6a9acd6eb0f2301095fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | 60,018,216 | 60,018,216 |
e4d678cabc3304af9d0dfe4f88a71deaa3961ccd | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x6b4f079d65bc9283366bfda7e4d48a4f36f461ad57290803856e85ee7593360f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Kaylee McKeowan (AUS) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | 60,018,216 | 60,018,216 |
9a0c898f78d3606facfb4de452d29c54c4277336 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x12a4d7eb4ae4208d02c4cb774549eb8b9c7228beb0152ed70c051630ab23ce13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | individual-all-around-gymnastics-winner-w | Will Simone Biles (USA) win Gold in Women’s Individual All-Around Gymnastics? | 60,096,364 | 60,096,364 |
381c2183a1564f431e18c1de3ef38bed0a56196e | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x6bb91bd702f534851d7d14121e8984d89f79c5e8a32aec80e9e0a3a8a6695518 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | 200m-butterfly-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Summer McIntosh (CAN) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly? | 60,096,364 | 60,096,364 |
66f7b2566a943993bf6525757ac22d79cfaf25aa | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x788e3cf4600ad2dc2b892e8e4d7d23c706d70a0fd48cbbf44467f8d8f3f56784 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | 200m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke? | 60,096,364 | 60,096,364 |
40fe7067ca79ee1ca5b8eda6b512d8ab804c0814 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x39bb127a3944c250799b20adebb049890ce740784a7e9f01937d195cc0955bd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | 200m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke? | 60,134,101 | 60,134,101 |
9cae8101d42723d25fbb0642bda8f0a90a570250 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x7315b803317a4b9fb6ad497f62e72128237071dc464525af0a33600614ef1e16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | 100m-butterfly-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Caeleb Dressel (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Butterfly? | 60,134,101 | 60,134,101 |
9b4d2572fb9e69da163afc46c029dad7f656a94d | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xa491b3c344f7640e59f43886299eac21ec743f5918730801513919f36fb88176 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | singles-tennis-winner-w | Will another athlete win Gold in Women’s Tennis? | 60,157,596 | 60,157,596 |
0a175acf4dfa2f10988514bf30dde03d25f06239 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x3f314d76d5bfc8cde0edea091450640aa7922ca918e76c6f7a7154a14992fd6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | tennis-winner-m | Will Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | 60,195,883 | 60,195,883 |
e76d39af29ace324424abed35f537ef35d5ab32d | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x433842eb9625c6fd9e73c556ba314f4e2fd97d38ecb37a791602a088cf9d69bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | tennis-winner-m | Will another athlete win Gold in Men's Tennis? | 60,195,883 | 60,195,883 |
cfadd7a8144616fde11dd9f10b2335e8ec2a2096 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x998c5449dec2c85221a766ca25d27244d7ebe1850997060846dec34971b6faa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | tennis-winner-m | Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | 60,195,883 | 60,195,883 |
68dfaa0d10fb71d0c3dca0a582a9c1237e2b4937 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xc48bd8e372e1c2be97c62dc5cfaa79eb222c8fa4a7ca4bae6b1240ce6ed58cc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | golf-winner-m | Will another athlete win Gold in Men's Golf? | 60,195,883 | 60,195,883 |
368cd818e1ea439b2f67b14b6d5dd62577831e83 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x8470b2c84fef27ff92f428903d5b0da7228fa309595f70f8005aaafe5c777369 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | 50m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 50m Freestyle? | 60,196,806 | 60,196,806 |
8d5dad17f4af7e689d0fff998c36a408ebc4e799 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x16638709abbdd7209e7a244ece68fa62f246ced9cae5536f759278ac0a3dbac7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m? | 60,215,437 | 60,215,437 |
9d244cfb49aff298709496dca9952a614352dd9c | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x3d703783c6f9c42503ad59a0d9761f8ccbde4a738fa1925fca673c0372c4f788 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Kishane Thompson (JAM) win Gold in 100m? | 60,215,437 | 60,215,437 |
18c68004587a4544f6cca476dd0bd823e2747425 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xa9796312c4c95d1b0708ace21bd46a9fb953cfc110a3e95d4cfbf8993fa3e1e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | hammer-throw-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Ethan Katzberg win Gold in Hammer Throw? | 60,215,437 | 60,215,437 |
0c71c89c3c00e21f7c5d58964997e6bccbf98ca6 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x26ee82bee2493a302d21283cb578f7e2fff2dd15743854f53034d12420863b55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | republican | 1 | which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election | Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | 60,222,782 | 64,303,917 |
65d28aa0191b92297f774fd98cd4045b0d874d8a | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x61826be092f882cf4152317432316e0a536cdb34600ea6bce28bbc94257ff77c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | pole-vault-gold-medal-winner | Will another athlete win Gold in Pole Vault? | 60,251,868 | 60,251,868 |
f9fa5b8f36ea6167c727f82dd22a7af2f9c57b16 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x55094f77e9dbc107fc354a9b8a5939cd0b4d0cfae24c7f892dd778b565b579c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | venezuela-election-winner | Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | 60,274,166 | 60,274,166 |
f58c826012fabc64d526ee8dceb73ed1c8e1a583 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x1b60fead57018405d3555612030acdf7f46a35955bdc697445708be31188cd71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,291,252 | 60,291,252 |
e8bdc7910845ae2669c772ae22f1cea9ed5c1f52 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x32ec1d4fc4eb064a369f9dd5c79d8699d7d74d1c028764a741c326af72dfbe01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | 1500m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Josh Kerr (GBR) win Gold in 1500m? | 60,291,252 | 60,291,252 |
131d132ffee894a6fe2a6f8d8252007cebc9131a | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xd83c13f14529750b296d6d2b327cbcadd34c2c3e673f4242c1be94d462a36617 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,291,252 | 60,291,252 |
125005784421cce355e900c2bba3b93c888a3162 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x9f94abc110a37f4bf9db165d486dadd1300bec1178e40af88144a4295e4776af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | 110m-hurdles-gold-medal-winner | Will another athlete win Gold in 110m Hurdles? | 60,369,722 | 60,369,722 |
fa0b748ab3f748bafeb0a8a490e1d135e45e2b0d | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x5929c8e30d7d63b4a6d583f0eaa1c0b06db61e7d59df22ff37f873bc01a2b970 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | 4x100m-relay-winner-w | Will another team win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay? | 60,394,940 | 60,394,940 |
d28edabb05e6e30ce171c13fe60b89916dba2317 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x1f76bc27067bac75267afa2b5efe6ef3d178a7933735093576464b89801b6ad9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | 66kg-boxing-winner-w | Will Any Other Boxer win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | 60,415,157 | 60,415,157 |
eec4376e5eada2e9e2b2bf17fe864bbdd6611112 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x283fb67c0fa5f49f5dd18f5d9f537767e5fbdf08d703af48f1b82cc0ed0a8061 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Australia win Gold in Women's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | 66kg-boxing-winner-w | Will Imane Khelif (ALG) win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | 60,415,157 | 60,415,157 |
9627b3f2df954a8ec6e5d60a8c1b5c4d44d5321c | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x1336d9c388f42dae8725824587b2fbdf11a874c287779f183074601e8ce1c5ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win Gold in Women's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 100m Breaststroke? | Event: 100m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | 5000m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Hagos Gebrhiwet (ETH) win Gold in 5000m? | 60,442,545 | 60,442,545 |
4a493135d419ea9933d0d9ea833d4a0729470265 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x31e1bc7d2ccc2f0aa3f87956091ea95bfa46e1d1ac74e3e5e85d3205137efa36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 100m Breaststroke? | Event: 100m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jiayu Xu (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | golf-winner-w | Will Atthaya Thitikul win Gold in Women's Golf? | 60,442,545 | 60,442,545 |
a4e8fa65a372661ec5f14543103d7d7d2c82acd2 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xf179384bba21e88d76c5cd9e12ec7c3661de045a2c2249d5c71ba610e9000579 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jiayu Xu (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tatjana Smith (RSA) win Gold in Women's 100m Breaststroke? | Event: 100m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | golf-winner-w | Will Lilia Vu win Gold in Women's Golf? | 60,442,545 | 60,442,545 |
272e09729466404279954ed97cc59b7c1e674d91 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xd5753e57cf9882fe4bbfdc7d347df1bd31777f2cdbe97a13e41285639fad832f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tatjana Smith (RSA) win Gold in Women's 100m Breaststroke? | Event: 100m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 60,473,365 | 60,473,365 |
a0058ca89ba4784d23b38c242d878f69829a86ed | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xb706e15f1b9b0eb0535956ba88c2e0be756ffa6cdf45d14f6a36a8f783548b1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kaylee McKeowan (AUS) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | when-will-gpt-5-be-announced | GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024? | 62,506,222 | 62,506,222 |
51bdf9b27a91a71fc2adfc86fc99da82960fbd7b | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xe6c986842244b43245207841d987e9885688fe0c362eedd1249a9029a2004739 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kaylee McKeowan (AUS) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Simone Biles (USA) win Gold in Women’s Individual All-Around Gymnastics? | Event: individual-all-around-gymnastics-winner-w | Choice: ... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-friday-oct-4 | Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 4? | 62,664,698 | 62,664,698 |
9931539877f854b329e9a2e816aca45503671ebe | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x53b4da15104f1869b7648857f484eaa19049c2dbb9203bbe911aa29883da2fc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Simone Biles (USA) win Gold in Women’s Individual All-Around Gymnastics? | Event: individual-all-around-gymnastics-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Summer McIntosh (CAN) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly? | Event: 200m-butterfly-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi? | 62,817,740 | 62,817,740 |
48aeafcd0d8151c5cfdb2a5ff75241b06aa25d5f | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xf15912dbc3a9b3c8d6c49aec2fedca7c57d695aa98cd3b66bacc61c2f6793390 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Summer McIntosh (CAN) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly? | Event: 200m-butterfly-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | jd-vance-favorability-40-on-election | JD Vance favorability >40% by Friday Oct 11? | 63,018,797 | 63,018,797 |
dab4f143c2af35026f3e2f91a193265a014d6ead | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x05512f8ef87b51bc9627204158ea6efe4ed329cfd7e5d4a439adbdc84f18e434 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke? | Event: 200m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | 63,244,565 | 63,244,565 |
d0fb421bd06707078929ceed0716c020dfc335d8 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xd7b8fc0d15093f6a022c90991557a126cff29d1a7c6ac079d240eedba2fc2be7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke? | Event: 200m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Caeleb Dressel (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Butterfly? | Event: 100m-butterfly-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | six-kings-slam-winner | Will Novak Djokovic win the Six Kings Slam? | 63,260,389 | 63,260,389 |
d456469b458898168161ecb6801206a22795ebca | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xb22e23192034b9a83669257eef9d23c0919207e3d7c38bdc59398b115e68cc2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Caeleb Dressel (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Butterfly? | Event: 100m-butterfly-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Women’s Tennis? | Event: singles-tennis-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcara... | yes | 1 | six-kings-slam-winner | Will Jannik Sinner win the Six Kings Slam? | 63,260,403 | 63,260,403 |
f332f8873f38649ddc9d7242030a0a96f9d149f3 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x9d9af72951dbe6f2ef512136d43166052c591ce3edd7ebe3376928b8ebc2e295 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Women’s Tennis? | Event: singles-tennis-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Event: tennis-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's Tennis... | yes | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20? | 63,303,013 | 63,303,013 |
c491b3a04c01a643c682a341c6482e34b54455bc | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x6d32c5bce4996f995dd0c9930889e898fb0442395e0a6b4fc3ffce06a331327b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Event: tennis-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Event: tennis-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | E... | no | 1 | us-gdp-declines-in-q3-2024 | US GDP declines in Q3 2024? | 63,924,989 | 63,924,989 |
85a999c9cbe2d2fb90e5c2ddc3acba491136f45e | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x046d3459a28aa3f95d36138e2209c32b0e8a6aee96023ccbfc82f44735d0644d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Event: tennis-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Event: tennis-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's Golf? | Event: g... | yes | 1 | kentucky-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Kentucky Presidential Election? | 63,952,548 | 63,952,548 |
0d250d27ee96e9a367aa1d930b96d57fdbcc263f | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x5a06bb8f86198aac8ae8b9a2610f1bdcf8954123dc51d51a3e6c492f88821ba8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Event: tennis-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 50m Freestyle? | E... | yes | 1 | florida-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,952,548 | 63,952,548 |
4baa98c4350b17dcd77942a4f044fd725afeffec | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x883f6ac0468d3449161454db37acb951bad5b55a7752bc2dd007e40356cee353 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 50m Freestyle? | Event: 50m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m... | yes | 1 | texas-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,952,548 | 63,952,548 |
59073c5c4ed7fe43045c76c0e945462e398b7fde | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x294fd2771d72317ab0888137193aac7dc90decd924cfcd69923edbc28d23d581 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 50m Freestyle? | Event: 50m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m? | Event: 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kishane Thompson (JAM) win... | yes | 1 | minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,955,824 | 63,955,824 |
ecb0b80d90fdf2e95a779fef24e44185512f79be | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x253d32feaaee1bc6eaa4e147470d33c2f4638224eae188960653486e5bf658db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m? | Event: 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kishane Thompson (JAM) win Gold in 100m? | Event: 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethan Katzberg win Gold in Hammer Throw? | E... | yes | 1 | washington-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Washington Presidential Election? | 63,956,769 | 63,956,769 |
3da8ce6b983fd9cc05e2a2f995cdc6e978c43398 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kishane Thompson (JAM) win Gold in 100m? | Event: 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ethan Katzberg win Gold in Hammer Throw? | Event: hammer-throw-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Which party wins 2024 US Presidenti... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,959,803 | 63,959,803 |
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