sample_id
stringlengths
40
68
wallet
stringlengths
42
42
market_id
stringlengths
66
66
split
stringclasses
1 value
system_prompt
stringclasses
1 value
input_text
stringlengths
215
15.3k
label_choice
stringclasses
913 values
label_confidence
float64
0
1
event_slug
stringlengths
7
120
question
stringlengths
8
164
stance_first_block
int64
30.2M
80M
stance_last_block
int64
30.6M
80M
18a835e8cb29868114013fe6d826b1a555ad535d
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xfa5a7ff654fb16fbbba2891bb08888d7b876581fed0e09c108919a8ec9732f18
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Ethan Katzberg win Gold in Hammer Throw? | Event: hammer-throw-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election | Choice: republican | Confidence: 1....
yes
1
new-jersey-presidential-election-winner
Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election?
63,959,803
63,959,803
6bf762e61662e2712e85aab547b125634bfc044d
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xc4efefe6e5ce0d8d4a20efd7fe9f8c90df447341f21fd66f55566d128768cc31
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election | Choice: republican | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Pole Vault? | Event: pole-vault-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Q...
yes
1
idaho-presidential-election-winner
Will a Republican win Idaho Presidential Election?
63,960,130
63,960,130
89beb98013e512623f026722a5c73d89b2bd9162
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xbe4f88565882170b13a66967bdad614a62c63b025e150e347d10553c58575287
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Pole Vault? | Event: pole-vault-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Andy Beshear ...
yes
1
new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024
Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election?
63,960,971
63,960,971
5c890d8b0d5d7eb86bece8b9264718d9b8b5b178
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x1c4a876957f0c70fb3a579d714c1c125bf14bcc0a6d47073115a1855cd4dd9ab
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Josh Kerr (...
yes
1
new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner
Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
63,965,758
63,965,758
4f19502014e90bd290660d86d449e07a4347f7a2
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x1d372482a1170a5591237fb8881b1cfe25a1caf69adf58035d406530eb39556d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Josh Kerr (GBR) win Gold in 1500m? | Event: 1500m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP no...
yes
1
hawaii-presidential-election-winner
Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election?
63,965,758
63,965,758
efab929e421ab4dca46df238fa68782f3536fceb
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xa923afcb8297e3ade170f2f8c088f3c277557fadef2c67054d72cc59f8504b2b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Josh Kerr (GBR) win Gold in 1500m? | Event: 1500m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in 110m Hurdles?...
yes
1
pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?
63,970,149
63,970,149
40c1a82a4008ae345ddf497d67457a6b0827c0de
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x5409a10c28f0699a8a464abdc9b07ab0a9335ff61d1a4f7e53f70b7e82fe5b45
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in 110m Hurdles? | Event: 110m-hurdles-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will another team win gold in the W...
no
1
trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-nov-4
Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4?
63,984,674
63,984,674
9e196c5e15b9a85aeb43207bcb37a91ac80e719b
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x7606802127355512c8f8ff9c70ef27a2717a8554374d84452de4c7d28147338d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in 110m Hurdles? | Event: 110m-hurdles-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will another team win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay? | Event: 4x100m-relay-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Any Other Boxer win Gold i...
yes
1
georgia-presidential-election-winner
Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?
63,984,674
63,984,674
3a6879d71096eb19c20d9c12bd45bb834dd6be41
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xa59e2e79dc1a564477c8d77dc32c30b37c0f4c8782c8cc062a7f788295cd91bb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will another team win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay? | Event: 4x100m-relay-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Any Other Boxer win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Event: 66kg-boxing-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will I...
yes
1
wisconsin-presidential-election-winner
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election?
63,984,674
63,984,674
ed8aa40b9e87223993d7cef949aa5d75fcba1292
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x02bc0bbff054877a08cdc4f9ccf4e7606804bc05c27f5faccf26c6e1666a5558
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Any Other Boxer win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Event: 66kg-boxing-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Imane Khelif (ALG) win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Event: 66kg-boxing-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confid...
yes
1
pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?
63,995,950
63,995,950
ae04ba4fd936ce7b4be3857baa044fc3be37360a
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xdd2f4921a562fc4d18c0bde327d2a9315352a3ba4137656112b9b1770fd1f2a9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Imane Khelif (ALG) win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Event: 66kg-boxing-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Hagos Gebrhiwet (ETH) win Gold in 5000m? | Event: 5000m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will At...
yes
1
nevada-presidential-election-winner
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election?
64,093,303
64,093,303
26fdf426dd5dfa467debb2ba20efca84029e5a17
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x4d848bab2da79b9ff7f2b2b0d9ddb048bb1fb47e9f782887f16e91d27de41279
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Hagos Gebrhiwet (ETH) win Gold in 5000m? | Event: 5000m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atthaya Thitikul win Gold in Women's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Lilia Vu win Gold in Women's Golf? | Event: go...
yes
1
arizona-presidential-election-winner
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election?
64,112,863
64,112,863
ffc93fd63dd56b8a6ec2f907d3785b087bc600c6
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x8da84fddaa700e09545ddb9a4b4af8760701bf4e752fbda4c3b25e73ff5d4ced
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Atthaya Thitikul win Gold in Women's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lilia Vu win Gold in Women's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-oly...
no
1
brazlian-grand-prix-winner
Will Sergio Perez win the Brazilian Grand Prix?
64,150,282
64,150,282
9061b7b84a26b8c2be63049aff96e77f2c4a401c
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x24849f6151db4691a332ea8beaa12af9c290340062f664797e6034d0cf4ea61a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Lilia Vu win Gold in Women's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024? | Event...
yes
1
uruguay-presidential-election-winner
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election?
64,982,338
64,982,338
924c142f624586b65fc0a8225131b018d09a0dc3
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x2e9a4324f3e2269b6069daec1473eeb127859c72f9db70b3842d70fcb87c31dd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024? | Event: when-will-gpt-5-be-announced | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 4? ...
yes
1
romania-parliamentary-election
Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?
65,062,219
65,062,219
facb03ab6ed4c542999b5ae0473c977baf62fb8d
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x66ec78f35ece68b102ba1f2a8546cacdd690af44d9c71f7cfcd04ad27f89025f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024? | Event: when-will-gpt-5-be-announced | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 4? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-friday-oct-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satosh...
no
1
iceland-legislative-election
Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?
65,062,219
65,062,219
8c7610a1c146bc2117e39ff56d5a9bb5c6292f02
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x74739a425dc26565ff1065f72f13afccde89086e7016589ebf970571f0607978
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 4? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-friday-oct-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: JD Vance favorabi...
no
1
2024-irish-general-election
Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?
65,062,219
65,062,219
b6cdf3b8e5ab7637e4fa7797512ef561853c5fd4
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x87249ba3fc6a660bfcd6165b941fa7b3dc96924e04b2e59a00be69c9866c43f3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: JD Vance favorability >40% by Friday Oct 11? | Event: jd-vance-favorability-40-on-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Southam...
yes
1
2024-irish-general-election
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?
65,062,219
65,062,219
33855087c95a0dc558f466af195f6953226f1819
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xead601f91addd1755226f3848e74bf243d184076d23cbf1941072a27f0421020
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: JD Vance favorability >40% by Friday Oct 11? | Event: jd-vance-favorability-40-on-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Novak Djokovic win the Six Kings Slam? |...
no
1
romania-parliamentary-election
Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?
65,062,219
65,062,219
6244d440e012e6a6f319d8bb1f01828f1d927e62
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x000aea148f4edc5a38eeab8fc0513a53c62f9cccd6a914dbdedd5b8f5ebcd09f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Novak Djokovic win the Six Kings Slam? | Event: six-kings-slam-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the Six Kings Slam? | Event: six-king...
no
1
namibia-presidential-election
Will another candidate be the next President of Namibia?
65,105,978
65,105,978
353a482253616cd458abd20fbe85dc15711984cc
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xdf19aadb5d7f713bff605292cd8129fd1210a761dacf7f9f02007398a216481f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Novak Djokovic win the Six Kings Slam? | Event: six-kings-slam-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the Six Kings Slam? | Event: six-kings-slam-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20? | Event: israe...
no
1
namibia-presidential-election
Will McHenry Venaani be the next President of Namibia?
65,105,978
65,105,978
944110324398933af79a302fd220d815d77fd6b1
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xe489cb5572163801a9babe25d1c2e50bbaf5d73b8c6f723296464bceb2b9f74d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the Six Kings Slam? | Event: six-kings-slam-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: US GDP declines in Q3 2024?...
no
1
namibia-presidential-election
Will Bernadus Swartbooi be the next President of Namibia?
65,105,978
65,105,978
0eeb9a5e6fac9eeef15ba7ca0d7c66f46590ace1
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x4de3757f9f11cc67701ed309f4d929b2e6dee4dada9a3332e42de995c6272edb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: US GDP declines in Q3 2024? | Event: us-gdp-declines-in-q3-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will a Republican win Kentucky Preside...
yes
1
epl-wes-wol-2024-12-09
Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09?
65,300,673
65,300,673
d09de219948586ebb07df911bd65a30c6f2ab56f
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xd7f83a5c115a8ea19f4c99d7675ed0112f126c272075887728aaf55a07a396cf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: US GDP declines in Q3 2024? | Event: us-gdp-declines-in-q3-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Republican win Kentucky Presidential Election? | Event: kentucky-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will a Republican win Florida in the 20...
yes
1
ghana-presidential-election
Will John Mahama be the next President of Ghana?
65,300,673
65,300,673
607551e828bc47967bc7ff2be918f1e359b6b857
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x07faaf60d74c220019196a1d49b3c0ca4578444a0be2b001de6ee4480a74ebf5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Republican win Kentucky Presidential Election? | Event: kentucky-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: florida-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3...
no
1
mystery-drones-searching-for-nuclear-weapons
Mystery Drones searching for nuclear weapons?
66,211,984
66,211,984
2e906d377fbdbd09858089903f26ae86aebb42d4
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x6015c53496b7a099d952edf8d74f2d2e839aa09d2084df79be603e1db949da71
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: florida-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: texas-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confiden...
no
1
us-recession-in-2024-1
U.S. Recession in 2024?
66,211,984
66,211,984
2457a7417f76e1a1af016a28f7248ec025caeb2c
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x66b3b3bbf5758d3cc69ebfc45137c5d17e612046d972d0b5d512c02bb1823865
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: texas-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confid...
yes
1
epl-wol-not-2025-01-06
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06?
66,399,343
66,399,343
3820194ce9b7a833bf689f87ad3a1b7b930cd1ab
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xf0f0aaf89c88d267cec8f1677daecf1cd213fbb74e4b71f812465c36b11fd6c5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Democrat win Washington Presidential Election? | Event: washington-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1...
yes
1
next-president-of-greece
Will Kostas Tasoulas be next Greek President?
67,997,390
67,997,390
49873b64a61fe9fafaea11d0482e808e6ee36cc1
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x7c6abded3d8d608cdb0b06bace8ce31b9b5f1298aad5dc18352f5baaa98acf55
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Democrat win Washington Presidential Election? | Event: washington-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: ...
up
1
ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-9
Ethereum Up or Down on April 9?
70,102,053
70,102,053
a8694d2371ccd6f17f7dee0e39bdcefaba4f4d41
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x0044de84a4d8512f545e86dd63a106ad994981ca5d42fd381f2c57e803f0c84b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election? | Event: new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: ...
yes
1
king-of-kings-opening-weekend-box-office
Will 'King of Kings' make more than $24m on its domestic opening weekend?
70,321,034
70,321,034
78f9e02de24c2934ece069b15e65a2fffdfc4c3d
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xccc7397b37fc4e1db2ebbc2f12dc747ab0e4075cb8bc61d2ec4df0df49e0e951
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election? | Event: new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Republican win Idaho Presidential Election? | Event: idaho-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will ...
no
1
saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?
70,575,318
70,575,318
6e7b89120edae0f00cd67018f53c7695910a983e
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x089ad183de4660a5af89cb142ccfd98107fd35346571c1f2a2b9b70c89fd1463
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Republican win Idaho Presidential Election? | Event: idaho-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: ...
yes
1
star-wars-iii-re-release-opening-weekend-box-office
Will 'Star Wars III' gross less than $19m on opening weekend?
70,889,066
70,889,066
8fa5292ca144fcbe5a84a1c255b29737df8a9c20
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x2d57762f723695f5731c65b80022ab98d48cb5d0d64dd80615ebef4457389c26
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | ...
yes
1
star-wars-iii-re-release-opening-weekend-box-office
Will 'Star Wars III' gross between $19-22m on opening weekend?
70,889,066
70,889,066
76321bb7d34edb15c989df0155c34fb423d17840
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x3b453f4b47c40aafe8361f40ff184c04b99f9b1936ee534a36097edbc29278fd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | Event: hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1...
no
1
miami-grand-prix-pole-winner
Will George Russell win the 2025 Miami GP pole?
71,181,363
71,181,363
cf26078c240711378a87b83097bc3fcf5a5d7832
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xc95d11ae12c195a9a821b59584b619e8d61b1d85304dd3bf3124bd069b3495d5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | Event: hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question:...
no
1
miami-grand-prix-pole-winner
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Miami GP pole?
71,181,363
71,181,363
154bf084ed1b69a44d76006d981ac026b5657bf3
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x3afa5b2aced78a5f00132a1ef51879a08eaf369528aa01f7541f50c8ce1138c0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-nov-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Wil...
no
1
of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 80m and 90m views in first 24 hours?
71,257,282
71,257,282
31def647d6b8b4f8a77fb9bae299a0aed8c38e00
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x50604c58f24c72f36b7ff15a63d07606e0c577a53db4aacbdcda1ad32ecd010d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-nov-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will a Republ...
no
1
of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 70m and 80m views in first 24 hours?
71,257,282
71,257,282
65f4eb9810f1ac2642b9feed00a02860d0a62842
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x9ebcc8ac8f2eefaaec5572555b186e5c6f4a2c22a1a6499d32d57775b0d9effd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | Event: wisconsin-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: W...
yes
1
of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 60m and 70m views in first 24 hours?
71,257,282
71,257,282
62b623a30f7310b9064845e243ee937acccd0e9c
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xcf9147f9671c19ba52b24b219757d8f01d90c82779216ee1d7b5359bc642b507
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | Event: wisconsin-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Que...
no
1
of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get more than 120m views in first 24 hours?
71,257,282
71,257,282
7bf7391e278ca3f029776f2c3d29810cf38d1072
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x9ba618bdf9fc97ca6e5cb7bf1c90edb0d94a057f73ceaab2b815e8c299a7c261
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? | Event: nevada-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question:...
yes
1
shadow-force-opening-weekend-box-office
Will 'Shadow Force' gross more than $2m opening weekend?
71,455,386
71,455,386
5b30bf6a338687f011c757e171e31b4c622561ee
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xde62d4df95d7ce1ba3267ae8595afb8738f9d64219ba28f43ac6603b2f163448
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? | Event: nevada-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | Event: arizona-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Se...
yes
1
trump-approval-rating-on-may-16
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 16?
71,669,198
71,669,198
2b8549e70865b23cc889c352e70fbfdd62e4ff19
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x676aba03f5ca39dcaab0a508ae201e016f1df2afef61ba1062a03a2e0816dc9c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | Event: arizona-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: brazlian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Yamandú Orsi win...
no
1
italy-grand-prix-pole-winner
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Italy GP pole?
71,685,567
71,685,567
449eb25c4ac1528e1e102bf13b7aa59057da4b02
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x80fd8ef4f1bd454eb6cb3ab1865cbae80774183d6401f0291488526d8ab065b1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: brazlian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | Event: uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will PSD win...
yes
1
of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23
Will MrBeast's next video get 45m or more views on day 1?
71,978,588
71,978,588
ea49eca6f82783e490603cd08d76a1fc422f3f30
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x34a4ad8f212d9647f5fd7f1a5ee655c943ae4c7672434d4b852d2216934658fd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | Event: uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 ...
no
1
mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-rotten-tomatoes-score-859
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80?
72,001,906
72,001,906
f7bdd898d0f5ead1f3454f95e659c3ebcc1d91dc
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x6176f0a35f67fe9d320500dcf0b6b98250d1199c63e7964c8f82b863a2f02ab5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election? | Event: iceland-legislative-election | Choice: no |...
yes
1
mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-rotten-tomatoes-score-859
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be 98 or higher?
72,001,906
72,001,906
e7eb64e2fb2e2df7a2cbf69675029b1a74c9b2ed
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xe47b20cb9edafa4c3fc4f079ab772054e56b96c8e040ec7c79fe296e64b40f26
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election? | Event: iceland-legislative-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: no | C...
yes
1
mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-rotten-tomatoes-score-859
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 95 and 97?
72,001,906
72,001,906
4d83cc2e850272502bbbec37a6b5aa73a7acf49b
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x30f6be2f27e0a4b96c3e9c9bda2dde5079fdb4a8cee201be2b1239e9ba970ba1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3...
yes
1
mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-opening-weekend-box-office
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend?
72,065,325
72,065,325
af2de12cdf633952a9d657f784fe04909ccf2225
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0x4cc5769ec9a6848a3b47837aee550afe1b0ad6f653a951e7b23641fabcfb48f7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 ...
yes
1
mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-opening-weekend-box-office
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m opening weekend?
72,065,325
72,065,325
ace125fe335a3a51feff4f76ec37641780a0420a
0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86
0xd009ac14bccdd12925a2d9f8d910411556e4ed153337abb18a97b97fabcf7db0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will another candidate be the next President of Namibia? | Event: namibia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: W...
yes
1
poland-presidential-election
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
72,277,519
72,277,519
a28f2d36548f82ac8f894164d8e71da5b150691d
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xecd38b7ad961d14974983f837d7712b55367aaf81875fcc60fc3195bee255a57
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Romania beat Austria? Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
no
1
fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania
Will Romania beat Austria?
72,506,176
72,506,176
baccd6b95148dadbe48a162f4542492df169d33e
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xb6a4eb2a74d8a280d794c9dd857f80cbe112b3e3e10d5d41df75d038b4f783a9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will France beat Germany? Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON:...
no
1
uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france
Will France beat Germany?
72,527,200
72,527,200
a304091fcc5467d0ccedeb739fe85702401412e8
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x787fe59109b5c815922f55bf2b264e2061c07d2f68dc423c858d0d7868e2392e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Marlins vs. Rays Event: mlb-mia-tb-202...
rays
1
mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08
Marlins vs. Rays
72,528,865
72,528,865
c86ce504eb0cc70082dc6db3736ceed7424befd4
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x21d7c804b66f91d22c8b5979b447f9abccd551930640fa75af6ebc6896ac5aae
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
1
uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain
Will Spain beat Portugal?
72,544,873
72,544,873
5bcc18524b1f8622b35205f3747005ed88deafcc
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x55bd733fb3bf832ef66990bdf18275874fd2d4301f24173a43953e90784e191c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
thunder
1
nba-ind-okc-2025-06-08
Pacers vs. Thunder
72,544,873
72,544,873
88dbd02d6e5cfc400e6a447b2a0f8ff4c6d6e96f
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x0c022d12c5911fba7e9fb40329840ac4f2979bc0e5363bd9e61576f73d4e4fc2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
yes
1
fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-croatia-vs-czechia
Will Czechia beat Croatia?
72,586,313
72,586,313
611017bb2c223d8ddf54418fb15079ea13dc7e1e
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x1f92da622faa6cba3df3fb1462f55ea775fd930a196a4cbbdd2000a3eac51c94
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
1
soccer-england-vs-senegal
Will England beat Senegal?
72,626,869
72,626,869
60cbb080b484e66b8bd666283701d77babf69b10
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x4c5fa178fc904b56bf7cc99a4a5ffd5b0e0880dba99a982b86c369a98984c407
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
1
fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-colombia-769
Will Argentina beat Colombia?
72,626,869
72,626,869
88e3a3b2098fd2297fb5d15dc0ff98c6c84251ca
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x7b5db03e7abe010a53aa5f2cfd01b82daa752f958347e1506b34ed3a724e85b6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
yes
1
fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-bolivia-vs-chile-115
Will Bolivia beat Chile?
72,626,869
72,626,869
06416939bb42550c8a06cdf5a36a09b4fd2c13eb
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x841bfaa0d6ba1e747d7e89281d83314ccc7eeff15a0a97fc76344ad7d0aa2a2f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
1
uefa-european-u21-czechia-vs-england
Will England U21 beat Czechia U21?
72,705,739
72,705,739
087bbe93b7167ce660ff804a5823f3b08ec70d7d
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xbefd8b629d336226e0ef80d9f482b17448476e2cd13752f6f206de2394762b3f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
yes
1
mls-new-york-city-fc-vs-atlanta-united-fc
Will Atlanta United FC beat New York City FC?
72,705,739
72,705,739
3b2b6a105af6f4091b3f8a6c0d369e69ef6f6302
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xa4367fd7921fe1545845e54bde5044c71d18843e5e62ad8bd405f06d51d495aa
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
panthers
1
nhl-edm-fla-2025-06-12
Oilers vs. Panthers
72,706,885
72,706,885
6e451804bd4f377b05baa76cb37e0b702e0b983f
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x3633c6b888398830d13bc4fecefe7592e0107a14cb240c67042f526fc958ebef
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
1
uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania
Will Spain U21 vs. Romania U21 end in a draw?
72,772,424
72,772,424
dd4377013d3a7ab35dd8437519146910e19baa0d
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xa06221a95c7edb4d89b6fbcfc8f1f84b5cac49267ba840ff04a10fe9dc780f3e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
yes
1
uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania
Will Romania U21 beat Spain U21?
72,772,424
72,772,424
9386921062e703adb6b983e451256ecc83ee7459
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x0d5b9f11d17fda70e5e08ca6b07f40ea2711f3a32722264e3b916c2c8518b677
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
0.066504
uefa-european-u21-slovakia-vs-italy
Will Slovakia U21 beat Italy U21?
72,786,089
72,786,089
ca92aecc31c555040d6c941c4b66a50b7d6a1a3b
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x21f3459a3a8fc82c56b0206e4d4dbcdead14ce840e73d824ffbb828f876982c1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
1
uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania
Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21?
72,786,089
72,786,089
c2090bb83b4224514528279cc11fd85024a16af5
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x711a4e251e5327d29f3360300658ac7685345bb4477e3f0d3c57625c6263738d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
yes
1
mls-columbus-crew-vs-vancouver-whitecaps
Will Vancouver Whitecaps beat Columbus Crew?
72,786,089
72,786,089
924a2a356c90d6b410ef9887cd3644124f6ac0df
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xc4cda2b47e5f3f6ed997ef705d4e309a9833a8b88412658fe803f59909fa8a20
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
1
uefa-european-u21-slovakia-vs-italy
Will Slovakia U21 vs. Italy U21 end in a draw?
72,786,089
72,786,089
cedceff1c4f64303a7f95ece6380372707fd2fed
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x867dfc45a18cd4d00ef69f4e0b6170fb65e019eb3a17e4f0c6b609af6afebc9c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
yes
1
mls-sporting-kansas-city-vs-fc-dallas
Will Sporting Kansas City beat FC Dallas?
72,791,634
72,791,634
0e52fee6edcf162bccc426aa03d840498c43106f
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xbc45c9933ab1f08affa969e8ed7883c927df0801bf6108342065252ecc129e76
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
yes
1
fifa-club-world-cup-al-ahly-vs-inter-miami-cf
Will Inter Miami CF beat Al Ahly?
72,791,634
72,791,634
18e92387188785aff4279fcecd71272297e6c1f9
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xc74df673407d8634f425947f09ecaa1a27b46fc3b2ed736c0b3cd53f8b6b4a76
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
1
uefa-european-u21-finland-vs-ukraine
Will Finland U21 vs. Ukraine U21 end in a draw?
72,813,002
72,813,002
d34df00aef28e99f057d233326401d1ef1c0b8e6
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x113e71593073c9965c726ed10e63200153464c90672192c16427d9a574498afc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
yes
1
uefa-european-u21-czechia-vs-germany
Will Czechia U21 beat Germany U21?
72,826,943
72,826,943
6941360f0cd870bd8b0d1853f3ecaccd446d4921
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x3cdc10953bac8d1e2318843a7775c4f37cb02dcee20ea87789e751e731d1fe24
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
yes
1
fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-atltico-madrid
Will Atlético Madrid beat PSG?
72,826,943
72,826,943
432ce90330eb4eecffac5b467cadd013bf885aaf
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x9ecdfa4386aae99b911d15d42bc4da29cc52dc2a00d82a7f34b7231aa31f5d35
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
yes
1
fifa-club-world-cup-palmeiras-vs-fc-porto
Will Palmeiras beat FC Porto?
72,826,943
72,826,943
ddca0a72cedf990b4ee09e99807aa1cb04069263
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x9f607c81ff4ecac19324ab06710da024b6019d45bbb67549533507d5b0a3ede3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
1
fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-atltico-madrid
Will PSG beat Atlético Madrid?
72,826,943
72,826,943
ea1aaf197e2276b1902416c622f5639988ceaa8a
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x0ecb050b5f868b0514838065858cd7fa5715b5b3c808b5b774b2fa51eb169be5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
1
concacaf-gold-cup-haiti-vs-saudi-arabia
Will Saudi Arabia beat Haiti?
72,827,244
72,827,244
60a4dd88e77852cf4d58bfa3ceeab84723e13ecb
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xcae7fc6f2eea5be0fe77e56efb7c78bbaaf46be003f848a196ae5ccc6a349235
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
yes
1
fifa-club-world-cup-botafogo-vs-seattle-sounders
Will Seattle Sounders beat Botafogo?
72,838,684
72,838,684
02fe43874020c2539e1d5cfd6f0139450d362374
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xf4880315777d86694cd95757f87ed41efd7262d62cbedb2bba69468686bdf6b4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
1
fifa-club-world-cup-botafogo-vs-seattle-sounders
Will Botafogo beat Seattle Sounders?
72,838,684
72,838,684
829758807028250aa53fffd229e2fe767281d588
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x842d591c84db48c0c2309cde4ceba4adbf7b9a181261b853798599fa76b36e53
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
yes
1
fifa-club-world-cup-boca-juniors-vs-benfica
Will Benfica beat Boca Juniors?
72,865,580
72,865,580
ad5ee06ebd78fb8f20bc956ec51e018743acfd78
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x4bc0eb8d2c640bb37d906780a506a83f69678a46a6e0ef8d2643b81715e009ec
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
1
fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds
Will River Plate beat Urawa Red Diamonds?
72,907,949
72,907,949
1fd7b5529726246ef98c5176d1c8265e45f85725
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x5844c062cef913e0d160a5076e6dce75a0e92d5c00e7703ea5e5a77c1b256043
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C...
no
1
fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund
Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense?
72,907,949
72,907,949
dd139ea037357d18aee42df934d1e79da9221459
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x6322e789fd76fecc49f88024b8baca3cf0349107b7a2a0f60866cd4e22eab97f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | Choice: rays | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice:...
yes
1
uefa-european-u21-romania-vs-slovakia
Will Slovakia U21 beat Romania U21?
72,907,949
72,907,949
2d6738abe5f9f1f0a9b46d47d52e716e0980d3b6
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xfe64fc3ad91f315b332feb1551530910d314cf9353d80050cc09ce75240d7311
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | Choice: rays | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Pacers vs. Thunder | Event: nba-ind-okc-2025-06-08 | Choice: thunder | Confidence:...
no
1
uefa-european-u21-romania-vs-slovakia
Will Romania U21 beat Slovakia U21?
72,907,949
72,907,949
a327a0fa7e905737c2e22eddecba93f41d9ec1aa
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x06d69ee0e94f0e4933aaffa74361467e42f3a5f84f01bf0dd98136ca5e92ee48
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Pacers vs. Thunder | Event: nba-ind-okc-2025-06-08 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Czechia beat Croatia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-croatia-vs-cze...
yes
1
concacaf-gold-cup-curacao-vs-el-salvador
Will Curacao beat El Salvador?
72,910,322
72,910,322
8170dcde9b3886771b55e5900afa2f8d5cd18e59
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xe1bc2d740419b86dc1c8ff8da1ace5b1348c887a5aa7f1ea410068627ebab668
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Thunder | Event: nba-ind-okc-2025-06-08 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Czechia beat Croatia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-croatia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England beat Senegal? | Event: soccer-england-vs-senegal | Cho...
no
1
fifa-club-world-cup-pachuca-vs-rb-salzburg
Will RB Salzburg beat Pachuca?
72,948,751
72,948,751
f99b2ebbd04e9579ef29f17334bb4954d86f93f7
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x0fd52ede0024f520769248d7b208b39ddc187b526ab4f54146d1477439e47736
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Czechia beat Croatia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-croatia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will England beat Senegal? | Event: soccer-england-vs-senegal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Argentina beat Colombia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifi...
yes
1
concacaf-gold-cup-trinidad-and-tobago-vs-haiti
Will Haiti beat Trinidad and Tobago?
72,989,486
72,989,486
2cb96dc50a94d4911f673a639a1af020fd60377c
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xa33ca2049b433ff2f358ccd33f80d0f3cb39fad7d7a6e25385a6f2927ea632c3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will England beat Senegal? | Event: soccer-england-vs-senegal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Argentina beat Colombia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-colombia-769 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Bolivia beat Chile? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qua...
no
1
fifa-club-world-cup-seattle-sounders-vs-atltico-madrid
Will Atlético Madrid beat Seattle Sounders?
72,989,486
72,989,486
70a86c50037afdce89bc4ef9fa221b494e933e00
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xff3fada97b0918e88d3fb8d555953937522f60fa5f51c050d9c74fa1f709d141
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Argentina beat Colombia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-colombia-769 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Bolivia beat Chile? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-bolivia-vs-chile-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will England U21 beat Czechia U2...
no
1
fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-botafogo
Will PSG beat Botafogo?
72,991,578
72,991,578
9bd86841c5aa07e3ddd4b1bf7f7927f630d7e4ba
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x343c3fcfd7202f653fd1cef112eee26d5e7ebf4bdde97c1555322a51f7d02b70
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bolivia beat Chile? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-bolivia-vs-chile-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will England U21 beat Czechia U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-czechia-vs-england | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atlanta United FC beat New York City ...
reds
1
mlb-cin-stl-2025-06-20
Reds vs. Cardinals
73,030,087
73,030,087
464ed16142152f07bf1c3158febeb1e8d4e49bc6
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x4e3a543f9150bb24e4aaa56b300f8ffef13558049458a888e09e1f9267e99eb3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will England U21 beat Czechia U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-czechia-vs-england | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atlanta United FC beat New York City FC? | Event: mls-new-york-city-fc-vs-atlanta-united-fc | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Oilers vs. Panthers | Even...
no
1
fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-ulsan
Will Fluminense beat Ulsan Hyundai?
73,070,002
73,070,002
09922a7e00d6b6d22c2a1676a0f41d2072aa6df0
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x14aa7db66ec6d6b876264778e0947de399330e99e0bcf11c3116ef57b89708cb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Atlanta United FC beat New York City FC? | Event: mls-new-york-city-fc-vs-atlanta-united-fc | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Oilers vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-edm-fla-2025-06-12 | Choice: panthers | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Spain U21 vs. Romania U21 end in a draw? | E...
no
1
fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-pachuca
Will Pachuca beat Real Madrid?
73,110,874
73,110,874
b1ab912f47a27e5d9a45270b3906864c6842f6a4
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x8ab283c282005e2060c8e45163b2318b7d7d124e3dd67255ef09900133d26bd4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Oilers vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-edm-fla-2025-06-12 | Choice: panthers | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Spain U21 vs. Romania U21 end in a draw? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Romania U21 beat Spain U21? | Event: uefa-european-u...
no
1
fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-al-hilal
Will RB Salzburg beat Al Hilal?
73,110,874
73,110,874
dfc7f7629afca3c9295e6307e404b86cde011699
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xa850de96dcc5505482fe076206b377e0e7b013b42838bc5ed4c17a1045f4b7ac
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Spain U21 vs. Romania U21 end in a draw? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Romania U21 beat Spain U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slovakia U21 beat Italy U21? | E...
no
1
fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-al-hilal
Will RB Salzburg vs. Al Hilal end in a draw?
73,110,874
73,110,874
b3e912e64129d3003068eb8bdc433b00463c08bf
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x5ec3599e09fd8a951fb723f0714abe01e7e5e18a76ee153fb29924721eb4e2b8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Romania U21 beat Spain U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Slovakia U21 beat Italy U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-slovakia-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.06650360818676199 3. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21?...
no
1
concacaf-gold-cup-dominican-republic-vs-suriname
Will Dominican Republic beat Suriname?
73,117,812
73,117,812
b555bc9979fb4295454ac715aad0a573ffcdc9ad
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x9e55504e6883f25967181170cd4f194d39c01a6159401c029331a210accca213
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Slovakia U21 beat Italy U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-slovakia-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.06650360818676199 2. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Vancouver Whitecaps beat Col...
yes
0.067376
concacaf-gold-cup-dominican-republic-vs-suriname
Will Suriname beat Dominican Republic?
73,117,812
73,117,812
440d63c6b7958f580d9c0053adcb83f40cf2f9e4
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x6b72b7ed49926f26f0c0421798e1e39dd4ec88ec6ac80297a91588a2395e250e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Vancouver Whitecaps beat Columbus Crew? | Event: mls-columbus-crew-vs-vancouver-whitecaps | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slovakia U21 vs. Italy U21 ...
yes
1
concacaf-gold-cup-guadeloupe-vs-guatemala
Will Guatemala beat Guadeloupe?
73,191,841
73,191,841
95d69f4462e84ce4da5e3d8a910e03165198f534
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xb1aa2ad13b4bd4d245ab69456a1eda488e3e0e4ab77575967bac565014b62f66
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Vancouver Whitecaps beat Columbus Crew? | Event: mls-columbus-crew-vs-vancouver-whitecaps | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Slovakia U21 vs. Italy U21 end in a draw? | Event: uefa-european-u21-slovakia-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Sporting Kan...
no
1
concacaf-gold-cup-panama-vs-jamaica
Will Panama beat Jamaica?
73,191,841
73,191,841
0309056d829d996f3a0ed2a36d2a4baa0337f468
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0xcdd97bf429ad7931e43f3de7a292e9e6160a1898e19954577e3d45fedb467bdf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Slovakia U21 vs. Italy U21 end in a draw? | Event: uefa-european-u21-slovakia-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Sporting Kansas City beat FC Dallas? | Event: mls-sporting-kansas-city-vs-fc-dallas | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Inter Miami CF bea...
no
1
fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-bayern-munich
Will Benfica beat Bayern Munich?
73,191,841
73,191,841
d9521442b99aa9928130f81c01299fe7acbb0d76
0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82
0x27b768abe9cab269ac909929bc9bb7878eb7c2d11edc765a0d1d1c52035932fb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Sporting Kansas City beat FC Dallas? | Event: mls-sporting-kansas-city-vs-fc-dallas | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Inter Miami CF beat Al Ahly? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ahly-vs-inter-miami-cf | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Finland U21 vs. Ukra...
yes
0.993458
fifa-club-world-cup-lafc-vs-flamengo
Will Flamengo beat LAFC?
73,193,752
73,193,752
b663f8d67cde3c5abb561bd290d931ef4e1c01a2
0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582
0xd3b5e480ff00889945ceae1c891d6eee68c3880d66290c142f256a55cc0d94fc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
yes
1
epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05
Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw?
66,347,393
66,347,393
131c8acee413864ee6bf7c490eea91cfd619fbaa
0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582
0x6f00d75a17741e1514ee76fb019c2848faab04c873ae016c79ae86bdf2b25232
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Warriors vs. Pistons Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence"...
warriors
1
nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09
Warriors vs. Pistons
66,526,013
66,526,013