sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18a835e8cb29868114013fe6d826b1a555ad535d | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xfa5a7ff654fb16fbbba2891bb08888d7b876581fed0e09c108919a8ec9732f18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethan Katzberg win Gold in Hammer Throw? | Event: hammer-throw-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election | Choice: republican | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election? | 63,959,803 | 63,959,803 |
6bf762e61662e2712e85aab547b125634bfc044d | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xc4efefe6e5ce0d8d4a20efd7fe9f8c90df447341f21fd66f55566d128768cc31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election | Choice: republican | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Pole Vault? | Event: pole-vault-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | idaho-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Idaho Presidential Election? | 63,960,130 | 63,960,130 |
89beb98013e512623f026722a5c73d89b2bd9162 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xbe4f88565882170b13a66967bdad614a62c63b025e150e347d10553c58575287 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Pole Vault? | Event: pole-vault-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Andy Beshear ... | yes | 1 | new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | 63,960,971 | 63,960,971 |
5c890d8b0d5d7eb86bece8b9264718d9b8b5b178 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x1c4a876957f0c70fb3a579d714c1c125bf14bcc0a6d47073115a1855cd4dd9ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Josh Kerr (... | yes | 1 | new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,965,758 | 63,965,758 |
4f19502014e90bd290660d86d449e07a4347f7a2 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x1d372482a1170a5591237fb8881b1cfe25a1caf69adf58035d406530eb39556d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Kerr (GBR) win Gold in 1500m? | Event: 1500m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP no... | yes | 1 | hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | 63,965,758 | 63,965,758 |
efab929e421ab4dca46df238fa68782f3536fceb | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xa923afcb8297e3ade170f2f8c088f3c277557fadef2c67054d72cc59f8504b2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Josh Kerr (GBR) win Gold in 1500m? | Event: 1500m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in 110m Hurdles?... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | 63,970,149 | 63,970,149 |
40c1a82a4008ae345ddf497d67457a6b0827c0de | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x5409a10c28f0699a8a464abdc9b07ab0a9335ff61d1a4f7e53f70b7e82fe5b45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in 110m Hurdles? | Event: 110m-hurdles-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another team win gold in the W... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-nov-4 | Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4? | 63,984,674 | 63,984,674 |
9e196c5e15b9a85aeb43207bcb37a91ac80e719b | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x7606802127355512c8f8ff9c70ef27a2717a8554374d84452de4c7d28147338d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in 110m Hurdles? | Event: 110m-hurdles-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another team win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay? | Event: 4x100m-relay-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Any Other Boxer win Gold i... | yes | 1 | georgia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | 63,984,674 | 63,984,674 |
3a6879d71096eb19c20d9c12bd45bb834dd6be41 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xa59e2e79dc1a564477c8d77dc32c30b37c0f4c8782c8cc062a7f788295cd91bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another team win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay? | Event: 4x100m-relay-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Any Other Boxer win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Event: 66kg-boxing-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will I... | yes | 1 | wisconsin-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | 63,984,674 | 63,984,674 |
ed8aa40b9e87223993d7cef949aa5d75fcba1292 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x02bc0bbff054877a08cdc4f9ccf4e7606804bc05c27f5faccf26c6e1666a5558 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Any Other Boxer win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Event: 66kg-boxing-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Imane Khelif (ALG) win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Event: 66kg-boxing-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | 63,995,950 | 63,995,950 |
ae04ba4fd936ce7b4be3857baa044fc3be37360a | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xdd2f4921a562fc4d18c0bde327d2a9315352a3ba4137656112b9b1770fd1f2a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Imane Khelif (ALG) win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Event: 66kg-boxing-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hagos Gebrhiwet (ETH) win Gold in 5000m? | Event: 5000m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will At... | yes | 1 | nevada-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? | 64,093,303 | 64,093,303 |
26fdf426dd5dfa467debb2ba20efca84029e5a17 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x4d848bab2da79b9ff7f2b2b0d9ddb048bb1fb47e9f782887f16e91d27de41279 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hagos Gebrhiwet (ETH) win Gold in 5000m? | Event: 5000m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atthaya Thitikul win Gold in Women's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lilia Vu win Gold in Women's Golf? | Event: go... | yes | 1 | arizona-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | 64,112,863 | 64,112,863 |
ffc93fd63dd56b8a6ec2f907d3785b087bc600c6 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x8da84fddaa700e09545ddb9a4b4af8760701bf4e752fbda4c3b25e73ff5d4ced | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atthaya Thitikul win Gold in Women's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lilia Vu win Gold in Women's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-oly... | no | 1 | brazlian-grand-prix-winner | Will Sergio Perez win the Brazilian Grand Prix? | 64,150,282 | 64,150,282 |
9061b7b84a26b8c2be63049aff96e77f2c4a401c | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x24849f6151db4691a332ea8beaa12af9c290340062f664797e6034d0cf4ea61a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lilia Vu win Gold in Women's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024? | Event... | yes | 1 | uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | 64,982,338 | 64,982,338 |
924c142f624586b65fc0a8225131b018d09a0dc3 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x2e9a4324f3e2269b6069daec1473eeb127859c72f9db70b3842d70fcb87c31dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024? | Event: when-will-gpt-5-be-announced | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 4? ... | yes | 1 | romania-parliamentary-election | Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | 65,062,219 | 65,062,219 |
facb03ab6ed4c542999b5ae0473c977baf62fb8d | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x66ec78f35ece68b102ba1f2a8546cacdd690af44d9c71f7cfcd04ad27f89025f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024? | Event: when-will-gpt-5-be-announced | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 4? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-friday-oct-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satosh... | no | 1 | iceland-legislative-election | Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election? | 65,062,219 | 65,062,219 |
8c7610a1c146bc2117e39ff56d5a9bb5c6292f02 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x74739a425dc26565ff1065f72f13afccde89086e7016589ebf970571f0607978 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 4? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-friday-oct-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: JD Vance favorabi... | no | 1 | 2024-irish-general-election | Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | 65,062,219 | 65,062,219 |
b6cdf3b8e5ab7637e4fa7797512ef561853c5fd4 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x87249ba3fc6a660bfcd6165b941fa7b3dc96924e04b2e59a00be69c9866c43f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: JD Vance favorability >40% by Friday Oct 11? | Event: jd-vance-favorability-40-on-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Southam... | yes | 1 | 2024-irish-general-election | Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | 65,062,219 | 65,062,219 |
33855087c95a0dc558f466af195f6953226f1819 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xead601f91addd1755226f3848e74bf243d184076d23cbf1941072a27f0421020 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: JD Vance favorability >40% by Friday Oct 11? | Event: jd-vance-favorability-40-on-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Novak Djokovic win the Six Kings Slam? |... | no | 1 | romania-parliamentary-election | Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | 65,062,219 | 65,062,219 |
6244d440e012e6a6f319d8bb1f01828f1d927e62 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x000aea148f4edc5a38eeab8fc0513a53c62f9cccd6a914dbdedd5b8f5ebcd09f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Novak Djokovic win the Six Kings Slam? | Event: six-kings-slam-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the Six Kings Slam? | Event: six-king... | no | 1 | namibia-presidential-election | Will another candidate be the next President of Namibia? | 65,105,978 | 65,105,978 |
353a482253616cd458abd20fbe85dc15711984cc | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xdf19aadb5d7f713bff605292cd8129fd1210a761dacf7f9f02007398a216481f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Novak Djokovic win the Six Kings Slam? | Event: six-kings-slam-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the Six Kings Slam? | Event: six-kings-slam-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20? | Event: israe... | no | 1 | namibia-presidential-election | Will McHenry Venaani be the next President of Namibia? | 65,105,978 | 65,105,978 |
944110324398933af79a302fd220d815d77fd6b1 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xe489cb5572163801a9babe25d1c2e50bbaf5d73b8c6f723296464bceb2b9f74d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the Six Kings Slam? | Event: six-kings-slam-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: US GDP declines in Q3 2024?... | no | 1 | namibia-presidential-election | Will Bernadus Swartbooi be the next President of Namibia? | 65,105,978 | 65,105,978 |
0eeb9a5e6fac9eeef15ba7ca0d7c66f46590ace1 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x4de3757f9f11cc67701ed309f4d929b2e6dee4dada9a3332e42de995c6272edb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US GDP declines in Q3 2024? | Event: us-gdp-declines-in-q3-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republican win Kentucky Preside... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-wol-2024-12-09 | Will West Ham win on 2024-12-09? | 65,300,673 | 65,300,673 |
d09de219948586ebb07df911bd65a30c6f2ab56f | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xd7f83a5c115a8ea19f4c99d7675ed0112f126c272075887728aaf55a07a396cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US GDP declines in Q3 2024? | Event: us-gdp-declines-in-q3-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Kentucky Presidential Election? | Event: kentucky-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republican win Florida in the 20... | yes | 1 | ghana-presidential-election | Will John Mahama be the next President of Ghana? | 65,300,673 | 65,300,673 |
607551e828bc47967bc7ff2be918f1e359b6b857 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x07faaf60d74c220019196a1d49b3c0ca4578444a0be2b001de6ee4480a74ebf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Kentucky Presidential Election? | Event: kentucky-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: florida-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | mystery-drones-searching-for-nuclear-weapons | Mystery Drones searching for nuclear weapons? | 66,211,984 | 66,211,984 |
2e906d377fbdbd09858089903f26ae86aebb42d4 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x6015c53496b7a099d952edf8d74f2d2e839aa09d2084df79be603e1db949da71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: florida-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: texas-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confiden... | no | 1 | us-recession-in-2024-1 | U.S. Recession in 2024? | 66,211,984 | 66,211,984 |
2457a7417f76e1a1af016a28f7248ec025caeb2c | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x66b3b3bbf5758d3cc69ebfc45137c5d17e612046d972d0b5d512c02bb1823865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: texas-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | 66,399,343 | 66,399,343 |
3820194ce9b7a833bf689f87ad3a1b7b930cd1ab | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xf0f0aaf89c88d267cec8f1677daecf1cd213fbb74e4b71f812465c36b11fd6c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Washington Presidential Election? | Event: washington-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-greece | Will Kostas Tasoulas be next Greek President? | 67,997,390 | 67,997,390 |
49873b64a61fe9fafaea11d0482e808e6ee36cc1 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x7c6abded3d8d608cdb0b06bace8ce31b9b5f1298aad5dc18352f5baaa98acf55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Washington Presidential Election? | Event: washington-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-9 | Ethereum Up or Down on April 9? | 70,102,053 | 70,102,053 |
a8694d2371ccd6f17f7dee0e39bdcefaba4f4d41 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x0044de84a4d8512f545e86dd63a106ad994981ca5d42fd381f2c57e803f0c84b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election? | Event: new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | king-of-kings-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'King of Kings' make more than $24m on its domestic opening weekend? | 70,321,034 | 70,321,034 |
78f9e02de24c2934ece069b15e65a2fffdfc4c3d | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xccc7397b37fc4e1db2ebbc2f12dc747ab0e4075cb8bc61d2ec4df0df49e0e951 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election? | Event: new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Idaho Presidential Election? | Event: idaho-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | 70,575,318 | 70,575,318 |
6e7b89120edae0f00cd67018f53c7695910a983e | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x089ad183de4660a5af89cb142ccfd98107fd35346571c1f2a2b9b70c89fd1463 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Idaho Presidential Election? | Event: idaho-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | star-wars-iii-re-release-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Star Wars III' gross less than $19m on opening weekend? | 70,889,066 | 70,889,066 |
8fa5292ca144fcbe5a84a1c255b29737df8a9c20 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x2d57762f723695f5731c65b80022ab98d48cb5d0d64dd80615ebef4457389c26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | star-wars-iii-re-release-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Star Wars III' gross between $19-22m on opening weekend? | 70,889,066 | 70,889,066 |
76321bb7d34edb15c989df0155c34fb423d17840 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x3b453f4b47c40aafe8361f40ff184c04b99f9b1936ee534a36097edbc29278fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | Event: hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | miami-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will George Russell win the 2025 Miami GP pole? | 71,181,363 | 71,181,363 |
cf26078c240711378a87b83097bc3fcf5a5d7832 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xc95d11ae12c195a9a821b59584b619e8d61b1d85304dd3bf3124bd069b3495d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | Event: hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | miami-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Miami GP pole? | 71,181,363 | 71,181,363 |
154bf084ed1b69a44d76006d981ac026b5657bf3 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x3afa5b2aced78a5f00132a1ef51879a08eaf369528aa01f7541f50c8ce1138c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-nov-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 80m and 90m views in first 24 hours? | 71,257,282 | 71,257,282 |
31def647d6b8b4f8a77fb9bae299a0aed8c38e00 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x50604c58f24c72f36b7ff15a63d07606e0c577a53db4aacbdcda1ad32ecd010d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-nov-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republ... | no | 1 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 70m and 80m views in first 24 hours? | 71,257,282 | 71,257,282 |
65f4eb9810f1ac2642b9feed00a02860d0a62842 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x9ebcc8ac8f2eefaaec5572555b186e5c6f4a2c22a1a6499d32d57775b0d9effd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | Event: wisconsin-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 60m and 70m views in first 24 hours? | 71,257,282 | 71,257,282 |
62b623a30f7310b9064845e243ee937acccd0e9c | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xcf9147f9671c19ba52b24b219757d8f01d90c82779216ee1d7b5359bc642b507 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | Event: wisconsin-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get more than 120m views in first 24 hours? | 71,257,282 | 71,257,282 |
7bf7391e278ca3f029776f2c3d29810cf38d1072 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x9ba618bdf9fc97ca6e5cb7bf1c90edb0d94a057f73ceaab2b815e8c299a7c261 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? | Event: nevada-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | shadow-force-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Shadow Force' gross more than $2m opening weekend? | 71,455,386 | 71,455,386 |
5b30bf6a338687f011c757e171e31b4c622561ee | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xde62d4df95d7ce1ba3267ae8595afb8738f9d64219ba28f43ac6603b2f163448 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? | Event: nevada-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | Event: arizona-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Se... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 16? | 71,669,198 | 71,669,198 |
2b8549e70865b23cc889c352e70fbfdd62e4ff19 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x676aba03f5ca39dcaab0a508ae201e016f1df2afef61ba1062a03a2e0816dc9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | Event: arizona-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: brazlian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Yamandú Orsi win... | no | 1 | italy-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Italy GP pole? | 71,685,567 | 71,685,567 |
449eb25c4ac1528e1e102bf13b7aa59057da4b02 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x80fd8ef4f1bd454eb6cb3ab1865cbae80774183d6401f0291488526d8ab065b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: brazlian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | Event: uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSD win... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Will MrBeast's next video get 45m or more views on day 1? | 71,978,588 | 71,978,588 |
ea49eca6f82783e490603cd08d76a1fc422f3f30 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x34a4ad8f212d9647f5fd7f1a5ee655c943ae4c7672434d4b852d2216934658fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | Event: uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-rotten-tomatoes-score-859 | Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80? | 72,001,906 | 72,001,906 |
f7bdd898d0f5ead1f3454f95e659c3ebcc1d91dc | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x6176f0a35f67fe9d320500dcf0b6b98250d1199c63e7964c8f82b863a2f02ab5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election? | Event: iceland-legislative-election | Choice: no |... | yes | 1 | mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-rotten-tomatoes-score-859 | Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be 98 or higher? | 72,001,906 | 72,001,906 |
e7eb64e2fb2e2df7a2cbf69675029b1a74c9b2ed | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xe47b20cb9edafa4c3fc4f079ab772054e56b96c8e040ec7c79fe296e64b40f26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election? | Event: iceland-legislative-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: no | C... | yes | 1 | mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-rotten-tomatoes-score-859 | Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 95 and 97? | 72,001,906 | 72,001,906 |
4d83cc2e850272502bbbec37a6b5aa73a7acf49b | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x30f6be2f27e0a4b96c3e9c9bda2dde5079fdb4a8cee201be2b1239e9ba970ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend? | 72,065,325 | 72,065,325 |
af2de12cdf633952a9d657f784fe04909ccf2225 | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0x4cc5769ec9a6848a3b47837aee550afe1b0ad6f653a951e7b23641fabcfb48f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m opening weekend? | 72,065,325 | 72,065,325 |
ace125fe335a3a51feff4f76ec37641780a0420a | 0x1c94ce0d27aa105b63bf712c9155343cff385b86 | 0xd009ac14bccdd12925a2d9f8d910411556e4ed153337abb18a97b97fabcf7db0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate be the next President of Namibia? | Event: namibia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | 72,277,519 | 72,277,519 |
a28f2d36548f82ac8f894164d8e71da5b150691d | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xecd38b7ad961d14974983f837d7712b55367aaf81875fcc60fc3195bee255a57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Romania beat Austria?
Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Will Romania beat Austria? | 72,506,176 | 72,506,176 |
baccd6b95148dadbe48a162f4542492df169d33e | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xb6a4eb2a74d8a280d794c9dd857f80cbe112b3e3e10d5d41df75d038b4f783a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will France beat Germany?
Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON:... | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Will France beat Germany? | 72,527,200 | 72,527,200 |
a304091fcc5467d0ccedeb739fe85702401412e8 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x787fe59109b5c815922f55bf2b264e2061c07d2f68dc423c858d0d7868e2392e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Marlins vs. Rays
Event: mlb-mia-tb-202... | rays | 1 | mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | Marlins vs. Rays | 72,528,865 | 72,528,865 |
c86ce504eb0cc70082dc6db3736ceed7424befd4 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x21d7c804b66f91d22c8b5979b447f9abccd551930640fa75af6ebc6896ac5aae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Will Spain beat Portugal? | 72,544,873 | 72,544,873 |
5bcc18524b1f8622b35205f3747005ed88deafcc | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x55bd733fb3bf832ef66990bdf18275874fd2d4301f24173a43953e90784e191c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | thunder | 1 | nba-ind-okc-2025-06-08 | Pacers vs. Thunder | 72,544,873 | 72,544,873 |
88dbd02d6e5cfc400e6a447b2a0f8ff4c6d6e96f | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x0c022d12c5911fba7e9fb40329840ac4f2979bc0e5363bd9e61576f73d4e4fc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | yes | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-croatia-vs-czechia | Will Czechia beat Croatia? | 72,586,313 | 72,586,313 |
611017bb2c223d8ddf54418fb15079ea13dc7e1e | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x1f92da622faa6cba3df3fb1462f55ea775fd930a196a4cbbdd2000a3eac51c94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 1 | soccer-england-vs-senegal | Will England beat Senegal? | 72,626,869 | 72,626,869 |
60cbb080b484e66b8bd666283701d77babf69b10 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x4c5fa178fc904b56bf7cc99a4a5ffd5b0e0880dba99a982b86c369a98984c407 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-colombia-769 | Will Argentina beat Colombia? | 72,626,869 | 72,626,869 |
88e3a3b2098fd2297fb5d15dc0ff98c6c84251ca | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x7b5db03e7abe010a53aa5f2cfd01b82daa752f958347e1506b34ed3a724e85b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | yes | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-bolivia-vs-chile-115 | Will Bolivia beat Chile? | 72,626,869 | 72,626,869 |
06416939bb42550c8a06cdf5a36a09b4fd2c13eb | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x841bfaa0d6ba1e747d7e89281d83314ccc7eeff15a0a97fc76344ad7d0aa2a2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 1 | uefa-european-u21-czechia-vs-england | Will England U21 beat Czechia U21? | 72,705,739 | 72,705,739 |
087bbe93b7167ce660ff804a5823f3b08ec70d7d | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xbefd8b629d336226e0ef80d9f482b17448476e2cd13752f6f206de2394762b3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | yes | 1 | mls-new-york-city-fc-vs-atlanta-united-fc | Will Atlanta United FC beat New York City FC? | 72,705,739 | 72,705,739 |
3b2b6a105af6f4091b3f8a6c0d369e69ef6f6302 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xa4367fd7921fe1545845e54bde5044c71d18843e5e62ad8bd405f06d51d495aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | panthers | 1 | nhl-edm-fla-2025-06-12 | Oilers vs. Panthers | 72,706,885 | 72,706,885 |
6e451804bd4f377b05baa76cb37e0b702e0b983f | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x3633c6b888398830d13bc4fecefe7592e0107a14cb240c67042f526fc958ebef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 1 | uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Will Spain U21 vs. Romania U21 end in a draw? | 72,772,424 | 72,772,424 |
dd4377013d3a7ab35dd8437519146910e19baa0d | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xa06221a95c7edb4d89b6fbcfc8f1f84b5cac49267ba840ff04a10fe9dc780f3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | yes | 1 | uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Will Romania U21 beat Spain U21? | 72,772,424 | 72,772,424 |
9386921062e703adb6b983e451256ecc83ee7459 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x0d5b9f11d17fda70e5e08ca6b07f40ea2711f3a32722264e3b916c2c8518b677 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 0.066504 | uefa-european-u21-slovakia-vs-italy | Will Slovakia U21 beat Italy U21? | 72,786,089 | 72,786,089 |
ca92aecc31c555040d6c941c4b66a50b7d6a1a3b | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x21f3459a3a8fc82c56b0206e4d4dbcdead14ce840e73d824ffbb828f876982c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 1 | uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | 72,786,089 | 72,786,089 |
c2090bb83b4224514528279cc11fd85024a16af5 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x711a4e251e5327d29f3360300658ac7685345bb4477e3f0d3c57625c6263738d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | yes | 1 | mls-columbus-crew-vs-vancouver-whitecaps | Will Vancouver Whitecaps beat Columbus Crew? | 72,786,089 | 72,786,089 |
924a2a356c90d6b410ef9887cd3644124f6ac0df | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xc4cda2b47e5f3f6ed997ef705d4e309a9833a8b88412658fe803f59909fa8a20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 1 | uefa-european-u21-slovakia-vs-italy | Will Slovakia U21 vs. Italy U21 end in a draw? | 72,786,089 | 72,786,089 |
cedceff1c4f64303a7f95ece6380372707fd2fed | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x867dfc45a18cd4d00ef69f4e0b6170fb65e019eb3a17e4f0c6b609af6afebc9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | yes | 1 | mls-sporting-kansas-city-vs-fc-dallas | Will Sporting Kansas City beat FC Dallas? | 72,791,634 | 72,791,634 |
0e52fee6edcf162bccc426aa03d840498c43106f | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xbc45c9933ab1f08affa969e8ed7883c927df0801bf6108342065252ecc129e76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-al-ahly-vs-inter-miami-cf | Will Inter Miami CF beat Al Ahly? | 72,791,634 | 72,791,634 |
18e92387188785aff4279fcecd71272297e6c1f9 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xc74df673407d8634f425947f09ecaa1a27b46fc3b2ed736c0b3cd53f8b6b4a76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 1 | uefa-european-u21-finland-vs-ukraine | Will Finland U21 vs. Ukraine U21 end in a draw? | 72,813,002 | 72,813,002 |
d34df00aef28e99f057d233326401d1ef1c0b8e6 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x113e71593073c9965c726ed10e63200153464c90672192c16427d9a574498afc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | yes | 1 | uefa-european-u21-czechia-vs-germany | Will Czechia U21 beat Germany U21? | 72,826,943 | 72,826,943 |
6941360f0cd870bd8b0d1853f3ecaccd446d4921 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x3cdc10953bac8d1e2318843a7775c4f37cb02dcee20ea87789e751e731d1fe24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-atltico-madrid | Will Atlético Madrid beat PSG? | 72,826,943 | 72,826,943 |
432ce90330eb4eecffac5b467cadd013bf885aaf | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x9ecdfa4386aae99b911d15d42bc4da29cc52dc2a00d82a7f34b7231aa31f5d35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-palmeiras-vs-fc-porto | Will Palmeiras beat FC Porto? | 72,826,943 | 72,826,943 |
ddca0a72cedf990b4ee09e99807aa1cb04069263 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x9f607c81ff4ecac19324ab06710da024b6019d45bbb67549533507d5b0a3ede3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-atltico-madrid | Will PSG beat Atlético Madrid? | 72,826,943 | 72,826,943 |
ea1aaf197e2276b1902416c622f5639988ceaa8a | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x0ecb050b5f868b0514838065858cd7fa5715b5b3c808b5b774b2fa51eb169be5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 1 | concacaf-gold-cup-haiti-vs-saudi-arabia | Will Saudi Arabia beat Haiti? | 72,827,244 | 72,827,244 |
60a4dd88e77852cf4d58bfa3ceeab84723e13ecb | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xcae7fc6f2eea5be0fe77e56efb7c78bbaaf46be003f848a196ae5ccc6a349235 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-botafogo-vs-seattle-sounders | Will Seattle Sounders beat Botafogo? | 72,838,684 | 72,838,684 |
02fe43874020c2539e1d5cfd6f0139450d362374 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xf4880315777d86694cd95757f87ed41efd7262d62cbedb2bba69468686bdf6b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-botafogo-vs-seattle-sounders | Will Botafogo beat Seattle Sounders? | 72,838,684 | 72,838,684 |
829758807028250aa53fffd229e2fe767281d588 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x842d591c84db48c0c2309cde4ceba4adbf7b9a181261b853798599fa76b36e53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-boca-juniors-vs-benfica | Will Benfica beat Boca Juniors? | 72,865,580 | 72,865,580 |
ad5ee06ebd78fb8f20bc956ec51e018743acfd78 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x4bc0eb8d2c640bb37d906780a506a83f69678a46a6e0ef8d2643b81715e009ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Will River Plate beat Urawa Red Diamonds? | 72,907,949 | 72,907,949 |
1fd7b5529726246ef98c5176d1c8265e45f85725 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x5844c062cef913e0d160a5076e6dce75a0e92d5c00e7703ea5e5a77c1b256043 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania beat Austria? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-austria-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | C... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | 72,907,949 | 72,907,949 |
dd139ea037357d18aee42df934d1e79da9221459 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x6322e789fd76fecc49f88024b8baca3cf0349107b7a2a0f60866cd4e22eab97f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | Choice: rays | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice:... | yes | 1 | uefa-european-u21-romania-vs-slovakia | Will Slovakia U21 beat Romania U21? | 72,907,949 | 72,907,949 |
2d6738abe5f9f1f0a9b46d47d52e716e0980d3b6 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xfe64fc3ad91f315b332feb1551530910d314cf9353d80050cc09ce75240d7311 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Marlins vs. Rays | Event: mlb-mia-tb-2025-06-08 | Choice: rays | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Pacers vs. Thunder | Event: nba-ind-okc-2025-06-08 | Choice: thunder | Confidence:... | no | 1 | uefa-european-u21-romania-vs-slovakia | Will Romania U21 beat Slovakia U21? | 72,907,949 | 72,907,949 |
a327a0fa7e905737c2e22eddecba93f41d9ec1aa | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x06d69ee0e94f0e4933aaffa74361467e42f3a5f84f01bf0dd98136ca5e92ee48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Pacers vs. Thunder | Event: nba-ind-okc-2025-06-08 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Czechia beat Croatia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-croatia-vs-cze... | yes | 1 | concacaf-gold-cup-curacao-vs-el-salvador | Will Curacao beat El Salvador? | 72,910,322 | 72,910,322 |
8170dcde9b3886771b55e5900afa2f8d5cd18e59 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xe1bc2d740419b86dc1c8ff8da1ace5b1348c887a5aa7f1ea410068627ebab668 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Thunder | Event: nba-ind-okc-2025-06-08 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Czechia beat Croatia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-croatia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Senegal? | Event: soccer-england-vs-senegal | Cho... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-pachuca-vs-rb-salzburg | Will RB Salzburg beat Pachuca? | 72,948,751 | 72,948,751 |
f99b2ebbd04e9579ef29f17334bb4954d86f93f7 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x0fd52ede0024f520769248d7b208b39ddc187b526ab4f54146d1477439e47736 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Czechia beat Croatia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-croatia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England beat Senegal? | Event: soccer-england-vs-senegal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Argentina beat Colombia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifi... | yes | 1 | concacaf-gold-cup-trinidad-and-tobago-vs-haiti | Will Haiti beat Trinidad and Tobago? | 72,989,486 | 72,989,486 |
2cb96dc50a94d4911f673a639a1af020fd60377c | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xa33ca2049b433ff2f358ccd33f80d0f3cb39fad7d7a6e25385a6f2927ea632c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England beat Senegal? | Event: soccer-england-vs-senegal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Argentina beat Colombia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-colombia-769 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bolivia beat Chile? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qua... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-seattle-sounders-vs-atltico-madrid | Will Atlético Madrid beat Seattle Sounders? | 72,989,486 | 72,989,486 |
70a86c50037afdce89bc4ef9fa221b494e933e00 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xff3fada97b0918e88d3fb8d555953937522f60fa5f51c050d9c74fa1f709d141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina beat Colombia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-colombia-769 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bolivia beat Chile? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-bolivia-vs-chile-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England U21 beat Czechia U2... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-botafogo | Will PSG beat Botafogo? | 72,991,578 | 72,991,578 |
9bd86841c5aa07e3ddd4b1bf7f7927f630d7e4ba | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x343c3fcfd7202f653fd1cef112eee26d5e7ebf4bdde97c1555322a51f7d02b70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bolivia beat Chile? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-bolivia-vs-chile-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England U21 beat Czechia U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-czechia-vs-england | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atlanta United FC beat New York City ... | reds | 1 | mlb-cin-stl-2025-06-20 | Reds vs. Cardinals | 73,030,087 | 73,030,087 |
464ed16142152f07bf1c3158febeb1e8d4e49bc6 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x4e3a543f9150bb24e4aaa56b300f8ffef13558049458a888e09e1f9267e99eb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England U21 beat Czechia U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-czechia-vs-england | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atlanta United FC beat New York City FC? | Event: mls-new-york-city-fc-vs-atlanta-united-fc | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Oilers vs. Panthers | Even... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-ulsan | Will Fluminense beat Ulsan Hyundai? | 73,070,002 | 73,070,002 |
09922a7e00d6b6d22c2a1676a0f41d2072aa6df0 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x14aa7db66ec6d6b876264778e0947de399330e99e0bcf11c3116ef57b89708cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atlanta United FC beat New York City FC? | Event: mls-new-york-city-fc-vs-atlanta-united-fc | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Oilers vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-edm-fla-2025-06-12 | Choice: panthers | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain U21 vs. Romania U21 end in a draw? | E... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-pachuca | Will Pachuca beat Real Madrid? | 73,110,874 | 73,110,874 |
b1ab912f47a27e5d9a45270b3906864c6842f6a4 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x8ab283c282005e2060c8e45163b2318b7d7d124e3dd67255ef09900133d26bd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Oilers vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-edm-fla-2025-06-12 | Choice: panthers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain U21 vs. Romania U21 end in a draw? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Romania U21 beat Spain U21? | Event: uefa-european-u... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-al-hilal | Will RB Salzburg beat Al Hilal? | 73,110,874 | 73,110,874 |
dfc7f7629afca3c9295e6307e404b86cde011699 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xa850de96dcc5505482fe076206b377e0e7b013b42838bc5ed4c17a1045f4b7ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 vs. Romania U21 end in a draw? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Romania U21 beat Spain U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovakia U21 beat Italy U21? | E... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-al-hilal | Will RB Salzburg vs. Al Hilal end in a draw? | 73,110,874 | 73,110,874 |
b3e912e64129d3003068eb8bdc433b00463c08bf | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x5ec3599e09fd8a951fb723f0714abe01e7e5e18a76ee153fb29924721eb4e2b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania U21 beat Spain U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia U21 beat Italy U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-slovakia-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.06650360818676199
3. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21?... | no | 1 | concacaf-gold-cup-dominican-republic-vs-suriname | Will Dominican Republic beat Suriname? | 73,117,812 | 73,117,812 |
b555bc9979fb4295454ac715aad0a573ffcdc9ad | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x9e55504e6883f25967181170cd4f194d39c01a6159401c029331a210accca213 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Slovakia U21 beat Italy U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-slovakia-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.06650360818676199
2. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vancouver Whitecaps beat Col... | yes | 0.067376 | concacaf-gold-cup-dominican-republic-vs-suriname | Will Suriname beat Dominican Republic? | 73,117,812 | 73,117,812 |
440d63c6b7958f580d9c0053adcb83f40cf2f9e4 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x6b72b7ed49926f26f0c0421798e1e39dd4ec88ec6ac80297a91588a2395e250e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vancouver Whitecaps beat Columbus Crew? | Event: mls-columbus-crew-vs-vancouver-whitecaps | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovakia U21 vs. Italy U21 ... | yes | 1 | concacaf-gold-cup-guadeloupe-vs-guatemala | Will Guatemala beat Guadeloupe? | 73,191,841 | 73,191,841 |
95d69f4462e84ce4da5e3d8a910e03165198f534 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xb1aa2ad13b4bd4d245ab69456a1eda488e3e0e4ab77575967bac565014b62f66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vancouver Whitecaps beat Columbus Crew? | Event: mls-columbus-crew-vs-vancouver-whitecaps | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia U21 vs. Italy U21 end in a draw? | Event: uefa-european-u21-slovakia-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sporting Kan... | no | 1 | concacaf-gold-cup-panama-vs-jamaica | Will Panama beat Jamaica? | 73,191,841 | 73,191,841 |
0309056d829d996f3a0ed2a36d2a4baa0337f468 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0xcdd97bf429ad7931e43f3de7a292e9e6160a1898e19954577e3d45fedb467bdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Slovakia U21 vs. Italy U21 end in a draw? | Event: uefa-european-u21-slovakia-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sporting Kansas City beat FC Dallas? | Event: mls-sporting-kansas-city-vs-fc-dallas | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Miami CF bea... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-bayern-munich | Will Benfica beat Bayern Munich? | 73,191,841 | 73,191,841 |
d9521442b99aa9928130f81c01299fe7acbb0d76 | 0x1ca79b3010025ce129e7ee3cf035c42d16c9ed82 | 0x27b768abe9cab269ac909929bc9bb7878eb7c2d11edc765a0d1d1c52035932fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sporting Kansas City beat FC Dallas? | Event: mls-sporting-kansas-city-vs-fc-dallas | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Miami CF beat Al Ahly? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ahly-vs-inter-miami-cf | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Finland U21 vs. Ukra... | yes | 0.993458 | fifa-club-world-cup-lafc-vs-flamengo | Will Flamengo beat LAFC? | 73,193,752 | 73,193,752 |
b663f8d67cde3c5abb561bd290d931ef4e1c01a2 | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0xd3b5e480ff00889945ceae1c891d6eee68c3880d66290c142f256a55cc0d94fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw?
Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | 66,347,393 | 66,347,393 |
131c8acee413864ee6bf7c490eea91cfd619fbaa | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0x6f00d75a17741e1514ee76fb019c2848faab04c873ae016c79ae86bdf2b25232 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Warriors vs. Pistons
Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence"... | warriors | 1 | nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Warriors vs. Pistons | 66,526,013 | 66,526,013 |
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