sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a6d8fa4d04fd029500ad2cb57c8d8ad8528dee96 | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0x2225d3fd97fb2b164d60984af11e887fb3e6e9652e608832a3597368a00add22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?
Event: champion... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | 71,677,963 | 71,677,963 |
b9f7ba878b147f0c49e20deeda30e6e2067f7ad2 | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0xc57c48ea08192107f7981b041ba115663b3d14935ea4315337a5e64351ddfa5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-wi... | yes | 1 | ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | 76,556,066 | 76,556,066 |
baec83a11d1568d71b22f4b52775386fc9034ec9 | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0x28a2c341bde029fb59f598c802bbd04763f634aa5ec642a7b016dfaee0000582 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-wi... | yes | 1 | ucl-mac-nap-2025-09-18 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-18? | 76,640,654 | 76,640,654 |
221ad84d9a2356ae89fb64f135c1c9dbe1c1cb63 | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0xc964405e53d4e01e6c1a2b6e9303bf0d77f0600f6fc7a391532c01919f0c535d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-wi... | yes | 1 | ucl-new-bar-2025-09-18 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? | 76,640,654 | 76,640,654 |
9cad834281c8488ae4688d44611dc6eeb7ce1ab5 | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0x2c17cfbd96352ccd3efc72f8c19e03f0e3540d429f8e5c9c002394ae48eed16f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-wi... | yes | 1 | lal-rso-mal-2025-09-24 | Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-24? | 76,882,620 | 76,882,620 |
a30f98b0cdeec91b0528bdb3b725d2ec147abbcb | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0x3cdaac98e672eb86b4cb3dd806b2308acb7207e907b4ccfbe580ca22c9e4e186 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-wi... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | 76,882,620 | 76,882,620 |
3aca3d2cdb5963f24dea554412bedc9b87c32770 | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0x0277983e6a4c3a5690a3cc3ed153e054e1b4fe08c225efdd44933a9e2bc49520 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-wi... | yes | 1 | ucl-psv-gil-2025-09-16 | Will PSV Eindhoven vs. Union St. Gilloise end in a draw? | 76,884,849 | 76,884,849 |
55fc6ac420a3a9119f0621868cf4d6840eb4d67c | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0x0b425bb68fafe68645d9054dee75d25224f8dbde08e2f8ac2d153b36cefcea6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-wi... | no | 1 | vogue-next-editor-in-chief | Will Chloe Malle be named the next editor-in-chief of Vogue? | 76,884,849 | 76,884,849 |
e64a208da95bda95d04755d721246fa688e10383 | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0x3a4e645ed0660841c5b21e2ecd97f097164621d182962439020ccc307256f25a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-wi... | yes | 1 | vogue-next-editor-in-chief | Will no new person be named the next editor-in-chief of Vogue? | 76,884,849 | 76,884,849 |
67194b6012bce11aebcb123dceb387e0be7e4d95 | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0x54fb76fabfeddbac408cf0a1b25d9288466554c9ea6da3813f11f32657d4c56a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-wi... | no | 1 | who-will-trump-talk-to-in-september | Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in September? | 76,884,849 | 76,884,849 |
24468fff60ad886f75b24b276016990104c8c87a | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0xe58e063893b82e9eb511f03e5b6a865c852542966f7f2c55840820971e46199a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-wi... | no | 1 | hollow-knight-silksong-metacritic-score | Will "Hollow Knight: Silksong" Metascore be 90-94 | 76,884,849 | 76,884,849 |
90318c3d8ee2a5fc7e78854d78f8faa44f7caf62 | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0xe8b2c9fab0b2aed95d6549f1d573cb80506920f18edda70bfbee34a0b0cac198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-wi... | yes | 1 | mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Will MrBeast raise 40m on Saturday August 30? | 76,884,849 | 76,884,849 |
170835db07bde80f4400d3ab16c740fb78dc4060 | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0x2a466b96d679bc94db4338f8b0c21aaf640cd5cdffb1908762861bf81f0929c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-wi... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-rso-2025-09-28 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-28? | 77,054,270 | 77,054,270 |
efdff6ca6ff8c1433170cccde8cc44157fac73d9 | 0x1cd0eb10cca865cf24e05c9478c234614de9f582 | 0x37038fd54575ed29bb04227733793d83963f6a4efc36cd398eb3f7db6f4e2f6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Pistons | Event: nba-gsw-det-2025-01-09 | Choice: warriors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-wi... | no | 1 | fif-ven-blz-2025-10-14 | Will Venezuela vs. Belize end in a draw? | 79,003,251 | 79,003,251 |
0ae68cff2b28573816c76d1e77d557e1dfb1cf3e | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xd5a480d67539bc1057d66c834e6e996eae30d9181cfe53ee527d092816fc0ac3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET?
Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | 75,742,821 | 75,742,821 |
0df256b771af8852c42b748efe80832008ed0f01 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x01d78034f23ad050a134e4b15e22f3168f70f50d4c73a96f8be71324904a1bb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29
Predict the user's choice ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | 75,814,145 | 75,814,145 |
8b4be258ae7346de070e3f7ddb68503e213f39b7 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x61e6b52e7ec751b2837619a8e45c0fbfc19a8d64b4d3616ec2705837318739ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Targe... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-2-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $111K on September 2 at 4PM ET? | 75,981,809 | 75,981,809 |
50c0dd3e3c8b1fce1905bb0ffb2636bb7cef75be | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xa9c33c88940312bc39c252c53ed4de927a329fa218ac56e994b1d9fefbbd22ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-5-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $112K on September 5 at 4PM ET? | 76,102,760 | 76,102,760 |
cf27392a5642ca23d66748ea3611832efa880f93 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x2500f64a7734318b6471f9c2f5e272ba7dad0e7a975ac7354ea2629215792b17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-11-12pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $114,500 on September 11 at 12PM ET? | 76,331,663 | 76,331,663 |
4dd8481dbf2abf91e7e691adecc91a279763345a | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xb80c3b3eba04cc976659779bd31da94fabce880e4dbecdc501e98f057eddadaa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 0.333333 | bitcoin-price-september-11-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $114,500 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | 76,338,276 | 76,338,276 |
7ecea8e4c937fd6d943cfc622f382402f5a384cd | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xc9fc603846e58addd9de7f66d8918cb9944aca238f5f5b8d532eb2952b6a3616 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 12? | 76,376,454 | 76,376,454 |
caba49f8ad1df7944ca42ef5ab37f2434800e645 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xb5dfbaddcdd723e3b42fa95314c112c2c5b3ae6e5d1dbadf58fe46aea702d3c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 0.5 | bitcoin-price-september-12-8pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $116,500 on September 12 at 8PM ET? | 76,397,645 | 76,397,645 |
ea896182c7b6f773f632ee7a7a777ec045cea460 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x1c2fd130bea186434064ca35a354b1953f9f6da158a4294c9b1e5e3373148b56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-22-12pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,500 and $113,000 on September 22 at 12PM ET? | 76,779,027 | 76,779,027 |
915fe8a8b1cefc10f6698aba7031a45a861f2ee3 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x14f961f1112c3485d2eb90a38d983f541d2eb61d96cbc17d5df7a68d9f3dd370 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 360 and 379 times September 5–12? | 78,336,080 | 78,336,080 |
b1960436474bb05eec0cb6da261140d4051f34a2 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x26fa9f50697a7354c981696051c9a3daa7ecfed832bc5f6f8bd3522f44212971 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | 78,336,080 | 78,336,080 |
b8dd292cc9483cd8e53c6c6598e89bd8def83133 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x47dd05688aeb06e5d975c2384bc219f06854efad9cdaa43b38edde9900909191 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 280 and 299 times September 5–12? | 78,336,080 | 78,336,080 |
e4d070f1bdcd034b43846e9fa8f83509b620666c | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x58d4e2f4a0caf88c8d19d0df507e0228c82dc5a9a22d9197db3c4a72e6c74fe8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5? | 78,336,080 | 78,336,080 |
62af40e70727ee486aa8746500970fef152d0052 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x63b44da99d9c8c964787ee6a55b960f22d7fd5e817e5389c21f4ba219e4ffd55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 78,336,080 | 78,336,080 |
e3d1963b01caa75a89ad6d98421485700d0ea986 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x7040029463920613018ca751d3a059302097368e7ea983226d3e3dffd4ce8da7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 78,336,080 | 78,336,080 |
5b09e0fd4ee1a39af415f25341257c16bc9647ae | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xb50776065d8720f9ff72aa4bf899f77989c5831023df363efbf81abfc69270bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-7-october-14 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? | 78,336,080 | 78,336,080 |
504cfc0d3f68b67263259eac94f3a227941f9fab | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xe41c21b56adb6f5c498cff905c6d553811727927b66af2fbf260e78ce7024dba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 78,336,080 | 78,336,080 |
075b3fa452110c6a5091f52ba73affada9b7af74 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xf0e4743c71ac5c9c0b0a134873511b199e897e892553dd0490391661bb308abe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 340 and 359 times September 5–12? | 78,336,080 | 78,336,080 |
6deda5321bca2703aec4c0da9f25171462edb3f4 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xf47447d2b1f6af8d90a7d703d9f6e1319352e0cd6d3811b72cad2def912c3f7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 320 and 339 times September 5–12? | 78,336,080 | 78,336,080 |
2138f74f6866bbd88167e2981c8c78df6ce9a20a | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x15722103dd8a504b9778815f51a4cd12313d8ddc2adcd92c5cbbfcbd0186f890 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 78,336,081 | 78,336,081 |
3648f4bcb7ade5c1f2f998e01fdff6473c4c9997 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x468c16c83d683ab273a90d662c9e41d0893cb1debc5c44d9ad9825f06d818980 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 78,336,081 | 78,336,081 |
c0663230f6abe4eca811c70542aa4eb38a07aae0 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x6f2f0094afd1aee6e5e47c64b83e92708e1a523e10cf83a944f6647d08cd1ccd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12? | 78,336,081 | 78,336,081 |
1e78b8d8d32ddf7f2e249c6ad62b24a65beeb294 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xc3bbc563eede54e1b2fcb690f2ba2ff89179ed736354e40a47f535c4b0e5e150 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 78,336,081 | 78,336,081 |
f2ca989bf06ec9ccbe39224f287d2ebfd02f0708 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xd85b8f6b7e001259941aa7734e385487e49013c6d367727a8122399d71823ac6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 260 and 279 times September 5–12? | 78,336,081 | 78,336,081 |
46f1cd29321525efc4f469930cda162dfb2b1848 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xd8ab31eb1a2e14f4c79f7f8ebc2ef74f447496b345f29ec83d7dbc22d414e90d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 78,336,081 | 78,336,081 |
8995357b4bcc3be43c7cef4ab4ac2cddb0fab796 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xfdf45224875e9c33dc7f0ac2e2f7982c08ad65b7f77fe81972bb94478ea09eab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 78,336,081 | 78,336,081 |
275cf27b24872235ae4b359f2858e0f3a64e2154 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x1a066f4cecf1b7a68bfbcc17a7cd67c0c722b6f5c66a4244ee726f0c67aa2ca2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 235–249 times August 29–September 5? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
c3965f1b79150f2115175815b151023c3eb93123 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x3c687f6b973b73669fa2f61a711062b2d943b69fa2a6e8a424c9e496ce6cf7bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
28f30e37ac0fb460322f0614d6fa29d9bc56258d | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x4bef72c679510cc846c55fafdaf5b182358d6785f7096822663441a0e1f57078 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-10-october-17 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
232be140de3d842460cb3b5859f00e2559001a02 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x530ce11e24c91a3fa794fdb60c0e9bf9e529ef0db4bcf3cf7503505e234675a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 265–279 times August 29–September 5? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
ed0b168700c22a1afda3758ab74f50cf6f9b2721 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x55d7e83669be3304ce171ec54b3409dc0f13137813843fdd1de6af9919ccb397 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on August 27 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-27-4pm-et-747 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
568199ea19a893d708fa44c8957372e0dbe0f981 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x79a7619acc54db0c71ce4ba9bf1d64c1e1781070686f33a538c67e3578bf7f32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $111K on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-10-october-17 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
ab7ce50240c88a8bac9b090d38129277812f52d3 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x7d08a68e9ba42235b3887549715088c6c4bd3d09e96ca47bfc64106b93da440b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $111K on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $112K on September 5 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-5-4pm-et | Choi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
983ca37d5316468948a46620c470c5691a72c0d6 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x8727ae9688e6f527d64eeece3dab49623c50049d2fd4d410567756b1a5b1c582 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $112K on September 5 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-5-4pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $114,500 on September 11 at 12PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-11-12pm... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Will Elon tweet between 540 and 569 times August 29–September 5? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
ce0067f4e228453fc95dfe3aeb3c0f80a0ef2c19 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x91cce84b1994be7d58c104b2836a66cd92c856581a9c30a67d1303108ffa95bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $114,500 on September 11 at 12PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-11-12pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $114,500 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-septembe... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
baa3792efe204a8cf423cd1e67a6f9fa58d86468 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xb14d63317c23c0c64164b118c0362ac2884307f46280f82c9ee2a28ae2cdc365 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $114,500 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-11-4pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 12? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-se... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-7-october-14 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
04d3e3c14e43b2ecbeca3c6a6e44643655a7efda | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xb35d1202ceb581442f10fa8e08ac1067668b81a1c812d0983e41bc828b19ccef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 12? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $116,500 on September 12 at 8PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-12-8pm-et | Ch... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Will Elon tweet between 510 and 539 times August 29–September 5? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
a6b5302a6d219b1557329f97245e9aa7e17308e2 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xdef0ca8d4240fb9ad56025f7d0f92f075149da1d6b979b9cffd7ac8ff302c5ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $116,500 on September 12 at 8PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-12-8pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,500 and $113,000 on September 22 at 12PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
e61b953f221536fafa5c4272dd99be0c971eaf94 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xf1ae4f958bb06421edaf2e4e17ce2a89a791a6035fd3cab76dca024f770af606 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,500 and $113,000 on September 22 at 12PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-22-12pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 360 and 379 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 280–294 times August 29–September 5? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
5b94f146c234ce8f24ce27f57b4a40517fc74c9a | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xf613b5e17a81fa7cc56e9e2932ae85b34960e27c5b1c25451345a06ab2382ea9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 360 and 379 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 78,336,082 | 78,336,082 |
f4bf3e8d5fc8d7de550a1c0bdb600aa71267a616 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x3aede5fbe88ea876bcc54eb838280d86feb472f165457c8138d073300fd9c37e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 280 and 299 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 78,336,083 | 78,336,083 |
ccd0770b6113d2cfd77e38528224869796ef96a1 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x61a6f7d448c924e5ed0de86a4762442db13df9d8fa1d0afa4e5f18f46059b6bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 280 and 299 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-10-8pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113,000 and $113,500 on September 10 at 8PM ET? | 78,336,083 | 78,336,083 |
0db75a57e9837642f3c12f491e0ea8909d5b7c74 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x9ce0979c4c40ae2cb252bd8dff9c85e3a37d009e23ec889fc09e365d54756118 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | C... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-7-october-14 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? | 78,336,083 | 78,336,083 |
b30662da950bbf2e9958967cbebe169632fb04fc | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x9d20c25bfba348f67424ba9f927455bfcf499762e2cc981e8c8fee9ce3bd151a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 78,336,083 | 78,336,083 |
3a1f0122c0e9ddbddd09c1da3f1fdc23641f44a8 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x9fc53eb2cdc3ca8b6ef2540538460e7643c52e9ef51aada24cf88ce8bbce081d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-7-october-14 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 325–339 times August 29–September 5? | 78,336,083 | 78,336,083 |
91f9361addfc84b0d94b9a9b1a8bd6e28a58cbc7 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xaefaf1274db91443c348095f5598b1118f278b0edd7cb4bb97c090aae75d455e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-7-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 310–324 times August 29–September 5? | 78,336,083 | 78,336,083 |
381f5800690e5fcbe11a9a223085166848b2fcc5 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xe5d5cb04b11fddd9d7ba0ad903246949360abdf8a712c74a9b6f2b7699c30543 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 340 and 359 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 295–309 times August 29–September 5? | 78,336,083 | 78,336,083 |
346622c4b77ef03601891fc9fc94c77356841d80 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x24547d2e8651716dd61429c341b2f2e583bcfbcd3daa6eadee1f8baec6bda96b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 340 and 359 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 320 and 339 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-10-12pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113,000 and $113,500 on September 10 at 12PM ET? | 78,336,084 | 78,336,084 |
9ce9b1d10d487d1d47d718b31bd4143023cd5d22 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x55a689d00cf24517eb7a71ced151f99774abda8c35185458f5cfaf27f1355f17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 320 and 339 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-7-october-14 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? | 78,336,084 | 78,336,084 |
5f34a9e7d6f096eefe2eb336f26789a81f50a0d2 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x9132bc2cd5176c455d14306c8c19f02334d80f66998e279a9ebe283db78bb567 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-7-october-14 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? | 78,336,084 | 78,336,084 |
e2e40d3ab200149921e18e87276d0a1c8bc88355 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x9f3131ca0beeecb338abd0ef4f465be009653fa00324ad9328226abe74717dc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 78,336,084 | 78,336,084 |
0abb520e9e1125715d64650a74969a90c1414de3 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xb2dda164a7c3f89e036f4f8f03646ea508a1baac2e86f2c5000dca69a5555bdc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-24-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113,000 and $113,500 on September 24 at 4PM ET? | 78,336,084 | 78,336,084 |
c0cd8e178a330e04197b5dccce3c1a50964d7a1a | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0x08b87fd44a8f1388aee1839c216c0bc4de027e861fb97a4f3b05eb4f126b0b6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 260 and 279 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-6-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $113K on September 6 at 4PM ET? | 78,336,085 | 78,336,085 |
9dbd3150cda3284729550dd61b4699f60bd001f3 | 0x1cde0b6b8432421f5cdf45ac3fc7a795cb5cb42a | 0xf580f2488f8e03a0b81b67c85ec1906cd75e4c375ad769e21b0e3335a6382b60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 260 and 279 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | 78,336,085 | 78,336,085 |
6b3370279c3926482aa3736061ab0d8082988fa2 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x065d4b988a746332e7a568c04c455023b4e46f73f4de7d694ace217d8dda1a6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1?
Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | 72,592,428 | 72,592,428 |
cfedafa350966c610bdcceace3bae9c0d9fe6bdb | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x1eaa7dbf6db63fb0771a93ac95920a0a5facd65734e8a5c269c276d2dc14cbda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?
Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner
Pred... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | 72,630,583 | 72,630,583 |
f5445c3cc9135f139a3d8d5f9a6ec1500d15f60c | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x36fbe9c1660fca7b6b4eec3c439740ed67a01ba9894309135ccfdd21ec3858b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | may-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in May? | 72,642,567 | 72,642,567 |
98a6640b1d9860fb025ea3ab5ac644aaaf919e74 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x41d7343d2f5f0d4cbdd4266c7a4d76bfebcf56727c0218c8be889cad0a7d3334 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Will the Panthers beat the Oilers 4-1? | 72,716,237 | 72,716,237 |
13692a67a966750b14768a321e6a1370077d819b | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0xd971cfb35ac8466e0e36559a9bddf6c1eab20e03db7657f735a62fccd958238e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | 2025-us-open-golf-winner | Will Bryson DeChambeau win The 2025 U.S. Open? | 72,769,652 | 72,769,652 |
77cc4df274a943bd15b666b958438a5f6cb647c7 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x4f8e1a9f3479c01155e02d23b6500038c56235898d1fec61933d499150da574d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-17-213 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2600 on June 17? | 72,893,511 | 72,893,511 |
eef1ef507a63cdff50b4d9d6309c52350edabded | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x83bbb8d76c413e911676d6c021b5ced472a5e8a0fd1861426aa12b0418799a63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-17-549 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on June 17? | 72,893,537 | 72,893,537 |
a6dd14ec8bd633288ea635e066aa77aca3b92153 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0xee49c41419021c5282902eabae4a3f58a9c3a7c20dadd8a389385509087eb881 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | stanley-cup-winner | Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | 72,914,898 | 72,914,898 |
911505d93f7a3be6722833e0d7fce0a2cbadac50 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0xda45758bf3a576fdca7fe01ba049b928ade005ba496c5d9bcc5f83849b973d12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-manchester-city-vs-wydad-ac | Will Manchester City beat Wydad AC? | 72,938,190 | 72,938,190 |
499493edd4ad52417d414881f511378e9113f0ea | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0xbbf9c80b7c0c54673adfeb82414706e09afee038d9aceec7392cb0a9d3758b37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-18-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 18 at 5 PM ET? | 72,940,176 | 72,940,176 |
a3bbdd9334ed6b1e4d0f817b45bcd4af24c5634e | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x2bf52074c1f81b4a2940af847e3abb3e0a3d1c05adcace151b07b627e4803b40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20? | 73,013,529 | 73,013,529 |
d6e1741ee968f715bbd4a6f7ff3e42ed2112802e | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x676a8ffc7aa4d286f7746c522ec75ee2fa177414204228341824dbd2ca389088 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-june-20 | Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on June 20? | 73,013,531 | 73,013,531 |
48046a876c52d3c85a0c032a5289d193e30363c4 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0xec7c1dfda491ec2f4f36b827caf265f6e70609ca3d62a853467d4c42ac7d3408 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-d-winner-286 | Will Flamengo win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,042,391 | 73,042,391 |
2c40ffdbeba9cca2842206d957522313a7d25227 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0xd8e1295a7b627b8f1f08380f7836796d71f793192ecd8bc6179378dcf83b9495 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-d-winner-286 | Will Chelsea win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,042,393 | 73,042,393 |
3556339ac7c426e11d4793d745fd00b34ec8a696 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x3717de3fe4690c2fa53bb581cf137c3fe1695c97c613db984fdd282d9f392673 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-canadian-federal-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 20-21m? | 73,198,619 | 73,198,619 |
183903343671799d5be073b0c54de089c1c687ad | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x69a9152b324e4e28b04f4d0950612bdb4fdbb3d6d477f3c2518aa94c7c8996f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-canadian-federal-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 19-20m? | 73,198,622 | 73,198,622 |
ae4a5663195763565075c11c80afd72884d9876f | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0xdec80349218f98d030cd5c63f1a436319bc868a93f4928eff4d7e05bed67cc2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1? | 73,502,828 | 73,502,828 |
eff505c4ad54bf7d5ab5640aa7131a05ea608ed0 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x6fc189166b7f88195094854290d518f0f8e08692c2bc300a8af44d4bcc0a14bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Will a club from South America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,764,310 | 73,764,310 |
9d05effd61669583b2654bdc64f5481f3404f1cd | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0xf45d627e09b910b429bf00c9006bae4f5f3b42e787b6e6b27f544946c61dfa3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | 2025-mid-season-invitational | Will Bilibili Gaming win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | 73,832,481 | 73,832,481 |
26c80b5ae16888f443fd6f07969e8fcc93dfcce4 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x383c27b362477c72434ad90facdcb399e45925a5c05c94379b35f0212b1b00d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Will Germany win the UEFA Women's Euro? | 74,344,140 | 74,344,140 |
9f4b3f4604acec69ba06f4aa3aefb8b1edc1b469 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0xcae372f8ae7dc24db21e88fa0dc65bbaf420f61f2e358255e389a5ec3e4dbe1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-july-2025 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting? | 74,356,316 | 74,356,316 |
e465c92c7a3b7f6d692e0443131872497622030b | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x1567abf0b9cb1bde9fe5f148548fc33fa107861b6ad6c6248792ec4d50178805 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%? | 74,606,259 | 74,606,259 |
d959fae548ecd7b161cbe160c565e33f160f14d4 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x4a68d828f7263f34391484404380c34efa9566f12a08a88553ddbe8e285c3ae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-july | No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | 74,606,259 | 74,606,259 |
c4e56f64b45f0cfbe1d326c4cdde02e7699ca137 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x52dde4a6bf4493e06461504e2651dc090b0e11bcdc6d486f727b0272d8e8880e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025 | Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? | 74,606,259 | 74,606,259 |
c09645dc8efd648e15f986bd96255a127507021e | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x65724b11967922c874691cfa23a03f3a4623126fcd162c609e19cfadeb2b3647 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | the-naked-gun-opening-weekend-box-office-665 | Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $17m? | 74,806,313 | 74,806,313 |
e732c04a8056fd2413a8ad1ddb30775b270a056d | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x10b6c1fb830e0b8a1b05a7c45ed8232cdc129a197522036c70fbe3774b17c55b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Will Spain win the UEFA Women's Euro? | 74,828,671 | 74,828,671 |
97dd1438ae08f8e0f6206fa8d3a60201b381daf1 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x677fd169b79c7e6ef191afe8a97b0564910740f68caaa3caa7487de6134f58c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | the-bad-guys-2-opening-weekend-box-office-685 | Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $22m and $25m? | 74,828,671 | 74,828,671 |
dd5d43078a94a2d7368f4b7d63fc9a9698924864 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0xf4f0cd40526e5df445ce909454441b24fefd5fadcffe2f06211226eece86749e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-new-england-vs-cf-montreal | MLS: Will CF Montreal beat New England? | 74,828,671 | 74,828,671 |
90ef5766eb10c575063d6d2ba210b68d900d3dc2 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x3d6259cf6de34a5499a169a033acd5c97dbb62267293d232c119fd6a7732abdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | uefa-super-cup-final-psg-vs-tottenham-575 | Will PSG win on 2025-08-13? | 75,207,616 | 75,207,616 |
03998be9602a03870c91b5a74dcc9f7d57145240 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x44392c7eab9337f2aa321e1274a101a133a60e0c2dc3c55f6b74c612c7739645 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | lal-rea-osa-2025-08-19 | Will Osasuna win on 2025-08-19? | 75,431,753 | 75,431,753 |
aa9c10178ce5c35bf15128afc9e8dec1b8ed820f | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0xf7805931745d730e5defef7460c34c4017786bc98394f5e805c5fa36a4d07b43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-1? | Event: nhl-stanley-cup-panthers-vs-oilers-series-outcome | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | of-views-taylor-swifts-appearance-on-new-heights-gets-week-1 | Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 20 and 30 million views the first week? | 75,476,202 | 75,476,202 |
2ee053c629eb82ad8a4780ddc41878eab6898623 | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x17c9e9c952be43752e6c24cb11f8c6ffc6ecc976e307dbcebac2f628a0aca27a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in May? | Event: may-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-lei-2025-08-22 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22? | 75,552,895 | 75,552,895 |
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