sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
df1c44e50ad4d7489d4e134e6bb5f17886b3f02e | 0x1cfe51789386009164c0352f1c773ef0413d68a9 | 0x18de4c501897dd4caec34c0eb66fd1e7cebf35ad38c735f1b367c400eff29c33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-sun-ast-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-09-21? | Event: bun-b04-moe-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-09-21? | Event: lal-elc-... | no | 1 | sea-rom-ver-2025-09-28 | Will Verona win on 2025-09-28? | 77,042,450 | 77,042,450 |
4cb1fafd3bbedb745485fa19e1be953cdfc8832f | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x4e10993ab7c23bd37c336fd88987e5c15fcaa87108b26532702f806e66172c9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13?
Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | 61,836,080 | 61,836,080 |
353705a5d2f992dc32cc3ebcc83b6409bfc416b6 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x16c95de8c2331d65859e771c2e78282ba0c72aa95a42e73956a0a58645a03905 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20?
Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the ta... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | 62,014,691 | 62,014,691 |
53c1d71e82e534e65b8ad4ae1992b07bc1740836 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x6cc501fa617e3a46ececf6e3990fe1afeeaa6bc897d3c7049c005fd1bdc42c2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Fed d... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | 62,014,691 | 62,014,691 |
eb112612f5962da8e25a03c8c39108f13eb01de1 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x70357debf15a956d82d8b2022aaf5f868763d1d0716d2c6e5ce35712e49a3b0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | 62,014,691 | 62,014,691 |
5583ab37db09271a874d0b1883f3c35eefc9f42c | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xb20072387cd12bc73f3a6fd30fdd5aa1644c8f72f958803d90fc05c51db0ac49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | 62,014,691 | 62,014,691 |
0250a48a10f08f954e56679a5f0791c95b12b878 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xd2a87412707affb3bb08e941eeb6693d24f78d493b201752573b6e7a5a9becf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Will Trump tweet 50+ times September 13-20? | 62,073,880 | 62,073,880 |
0a9901396cdd8e71d044ffacc9f051bae6a7f273 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x6d283e7709d0b7c7bbd499585e027e45118417bd0e3e2670912a03ae0ff3de90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | yes | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? | 62,820,374 | 62,820,374 |
ec35f19aef136e66be80b0e6004c2ab577d84a52 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xf05f23440ebb1b37ebaceb3767b0e98a7f6ae37b8b37da7b7214d0e8998d7fc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 0 | closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Will Georgia be the closest state? | 62,820,454 | 62,820,454 |
56004a0fd8a0253763cbb1b09fdd6c78a3ac9f5b | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x8540502d22a63edb72be7680ee1968e0f06ef1ebf8f46c45266a67ddede01db8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | yes | 1 | milton-landfall-at-what-category | Will Milton make landfall as a category 3? | 62,859,940 | 62,859,940 |
5effc85a67e7857855b7b1535e9b062cc6fb78bc | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xe92fb17880e1bc7ff13f25f5bfef59aca43691f5800fda43b4cec5e982fcc814 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 1 | milton-landfall-at-what-category | Will Milton make landfall as a category 5? | 62,859,942 | 62,859,942 |
345fa36614715805d9219aeda677c85f1877c318 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x7f85e2a019c4c81ee857fa09cc968db9c6e687d77fab88b2e4fed8d60a5c3902 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 0.000012 | tesla-sells-bitcoin-in-october | Tesla sells bitcoin in October? | 63,146,801 | 63,190,972 |
78d420d3baee695cb9c946ff916822126848963a | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xbcde2c99e190f1ddab22bfde03041c6910d8f213fc489e59b29048bd477af7b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 0 | trump-flips-kamala-on-silver-bulletin-before-the-election | Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election? | 63,148,884 | 63,164,589 |
d543597772ce6960edb38475d6b41176ad9c9e32 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x02907c864d97466515cb46f5a738409b12a4569154fa62328f56555891804557 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 0.000017 | north-korea-x-south-korea-military-clash-in-2024 | North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024? | 63,157,611 | 63,181,536 |
58edbfbc43431fd2efe7ffc6b48cd4a2162197e7 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x570076a0af4841b04b7a5695644e950e92347122b3deca3ea60cfd107d1ebe7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 0 | israel-withdraws-from-gaza-in-2024 | Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024? | 63,237,795 | 63,266,947 |
f5ef43bc3bdfbcb8def90cdd240b37742e03a7e9 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x360f2bc551b4c3bbe5ff9b3ccbeef7902dc57c35fda25cb5581b6d8cef9e51f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 0.047872 | israel-military-response-against-iran-by-friday-oct-25 | Israel military response against Iran by Friday? | 63,237,795 | 63,310,013 |
771c0a59b4c31b584010f3aa1c263d99a636ff9e | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xbddaaabbe68c92eb2a11d094d2ace3b2de2a8171cd3e3808bfb246a9267bdf70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | harris | 0 | who-will-lead-on-538-on-friday | Who will lead on 538 on Friday? | 63,237,795 | 63,534,421 |
acc207c398a69fac71142b4c8ad90daf546eb3f0 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 0.923077 | how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 | Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 63,237,795 | 63,808,669 |
58c543a384ff47c0553d4d6b54aeb7bcfb8bf0ab | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x6e304813c5130f8e1b708ba9ac462910b9a138940ffc39b38e1b6efcea68ed0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 0 | kamala-harris-fires-campaign-manager | Kamala Harris fires campaign manager? | 63,237,795 | 63,911,310 |
3b5288683f81c695d3ccf34cca408239b4a4708f | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xc3c3e6e41c0f268a011a611bc8362e28f85e193159c5ab240c4bf17acb369321 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | yes | 1 | worlds-2024-lol-winner | Will FlyQuest win LoL Worlds 2024? | 63,283,083 | 63,283,083 |
721524bba402641be00b4190f1686a181226fac0 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x0441c0e10463a1da15bfe09815a38b8bb495bf7b5075805e593c33c797aa8ebc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Oct 25? | 63,491,325 | 63,491,325 |
4869707f4dcfba4080dd47f4978a45dbd31ba240 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x3c2423a98a6424d0410448c993e8d1d7bdf3660268d81f91c29e493d241b7fe9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Oct 25? | 63,491,325 | 63,491,325 |
2e9f207690b45cc12e7945b6c4ed3cd3f97beedb | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x85dc0fc38ff79608d47d733c0e168318b22c5cdc54c75e05836e0d22523a5ff7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 25? | 63,491,325 | 63,491,325 |
34ab7e20066ca3ddc95539be814037ba441f4c73 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xdda9371f6b3e763c6829ec56fd5316def8c0746594d933754db37f3dc7b78fff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1.5-1.9 on Oct 25? | 63,491,325 | 63,491,325 |
44e0a02f862cdf665006601163911d5b8452b5ce | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xe403252674602743a03b6bd82b78fa1598493353b49d282fc3919d716d8e325e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 on Oct 25? | 63,491,325 | 63,491,325 |
765f8d784e4833bf452897db2644aaa46ba33880 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x4aff2043986794ec80ccf4c6cb2f2848d902a570c7fe166fb575dd491758e546 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | yes | 0.000173 | kamala-wins-with-blue-wall-mi-pa-wi-270-evs | Kamala wins 270-268 - MI, PA, WI | 63,656,062 | 63,656,062 |
47de45d6e5726b8b62e1686434cb25ec4b742ca2 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x65327d859d365456a68b92abdbef0bbf78bb10f1d0729bb66c17dbbd73e8b791 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 1 | the-house-poker-night-biggest-loser | Will Frank Degods be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? | 63,911,310 | 63,911,310 |
69522c54dfce39a66937df740f313ac0730efee7 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x693ea853a9912b557b59cf4241c810fded468c71e0d9048e4d202ec85fe24f94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 0.047619 | the-house-poker-night-biggest-loser | Will rasmr be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? | 63,911,310 | 63,911,310 |
78f699ea4c8ef9f8b9e6dd7ef975ef84ae2e1ce1 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xaf99acf92a4bb951c070b5de3ae11718f31d5478742fc4fb0101afb71e2ee3d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 0 | will-trump-win-florida-by-8-points | Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points? | 63,934,723 | 63,934,723 |
be0907e3d771db74fdf92365863484c74532cda7 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x79c1d9893aee3128640da5691ae0abc28f35b04f40c81fde01725b547a1ac96b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 1 | what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Will the AP call the election on November 5? | 63,952,753 | 63,952,753 |
90fedeb37f568f09aa5b3d8b4729852a40c67e66 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x1984bbab3331ef1cceff87747c9c3acdbb3208c56fa586518befb4cd059e2d36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 1 | the-house-poker-night-biggest-loser | Will macdegods be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? | 63,968,233 | 63,968,233 |
45a6b707c73d5cd2f99b3521968b0cb4a8081380 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x8e1b3055f4b1439636252c5b8a32387234b48403d95abe1ad23fe59c6181b067 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases inte... | no | 1 | iowa-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? | 63,968,233 | 63,968,233 |
cdbfce8294572b859c7d1fa544e0d85d9e1ed7d0 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xa923afcb8297e3ade170f2f8c088f3c277557fadef2c67054d72cc59f8504b2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed... | no | 1 | pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | 63,968,233 | 63,968,233 |
51109d8f17d3b1957c6c51a3b3f00d96b54a5fe3 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xace1e6111d8220cc4fc214006de1d4ae5222f8d4dbdc01c9da7efcd68f635691 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Will Trump win 4 swing states? | 63,968,233 | 63,968,233 |
d5b15b1ce6ffac08c55d02aa0237951e28187203 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xd3ef230e5b67a6ef488fb69c58b16644beed3c09a4716cbd2f8cd52a62c71e92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Will the AP call the election on November 6? | 63,968,233 | 63,968,233 |
7918db7311468d4b8731a22138d549dd26fd668f | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 50+ times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the HBO... | no | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,968,233 | 63,968,233 |
cafa0db75b0fdf9bc3bcaebee10af796b3022f87 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xf94993ec164d33b391280b2bd4162205d4817a5ba1fb628138c5b2f1f5d7270f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 50+ times September 13-20? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgi... | no | 1 | what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Will the AP call the election on November 8? | 63,968,233 | 63,968,233 |
3632a567f1a1657c6e1188e8391173e7e016064e | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x51ac44a5178a2bb04e9bcb6f134b034fb63b938fd49c465f0f0460af136677d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Georgia be the closest state? | Event: closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Milton ... | yes | 1 | how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Will Trump win 5 swing states? | 64,072,353 | 64,072,353 |
e048c466c4ac88a5e7d4f62d704da6f839fe3d2f | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x9c9c47de9c871b6cfbae8956f3586f09ae131c44f73e478bc824c106489dd930 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Georgia be the closest state? | Event: closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Milton make landfall as a category 3? | Event: milton-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Milton make landfall as a c... | yes | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4 | 64,122,275 | 64,122,275 |
e81b5ecdf428c67d11c19a4a12803c25442554e6 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xe197344d6f86db4cb7359a191befc93d345495ff573da62c1913992e55e761dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Milton make landfall as a category 3? | Event: milton-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Milton make landfall as a category 5? | Event: milton-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Tesla sells bitcoin in October? | ... | yes | 1 | how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Will Trump win 6 swing states? | 64,122,275 | 64,122,275 |
6ad9766b15d98b6e42eb33c72b297a3a1cdc457e | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xdc8391521f8ddad9dac60dc32ffeb7d1f78c707b241ceb4b383066e4d31595a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Milton make landfall as a category 5? | Event: milton-landfall-at-what-category | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Tesla sells bitcoin in October? | Event: tesla-sells-bitcoin-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.2449467817413714e-05
3. Question: Trump flips Kamala on Silver ... | no | 0 | will-russia-capture-kurakhove-before-december | Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December? | 64,172,837 | 64,975,684 |
f3041dba8c3cb138525031049cd887e57089d31c | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xcd919e15574e7757ad705cf69ad4639aa3dee3cd7c4000fce7e8d42a76361eef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Tesla sells bitcoin in October? | Event: tesla-sells-bitcoin-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.2449467817413714e-05
2. Question: Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election? | Event: trump-flips-kamala-on-silver-bulletin-before-the-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3... | no | 0.820103 | how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2024 | Will three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024? | 64,490,423 | 64,502,730 |
85bf72eb8193c4815880315ada5b20b110fae317 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x57013fd52a3b754711535398cde9a28516cefbf0a2215675234df55d17eabd6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election? | Event: trump-flips-kamala-on-silver-bulletin-before-the-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024? | Event: north-korea-x-south-korea-military-clash-in-2024 | Choice: no | ... | yes | 1 | closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Will Minnesota be the closest state? | 64,889,873 | 64,889,873 |
e23a99d0dfaf7133421dee5c5f0bea9e4522ae0c | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xdc359276ecb11f0f5f3ce0f5dd5e4a43ce3dc829bf7e388b1846e3be38db7cc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024? | Event: north-korea-x-south-korea-military-clash-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.723947309150044e-05
2. Question: Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024? | Event: israel-withdraws-from-gaza-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | wisconsin-margin-of-victory | Will the Republican candidate win Wisconsin by 4.0% or more? | 64,975,684 | 64,975,684 |
f77b217e3a2cb2750dd4d610bfd771fafd974937 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x5ed7f26d3b469b5b1cf6c4e51afa5bf4eaf8400407001ba7e0737d0f2a7809d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024? | Event: israel-withdraws-from-gaza-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Israel military response against Iran by Friday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-by-friday-oct-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.047872027525641424
3. Quest... | no | 0.726632 | world-chess-championship-game-7 | Will Game 7 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | 65,035,440 | 65,089,511 |
94ce84ddc1a801b2fe12e4ee937d3b1c9f0c813b | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x3c5bb5fbb7bf64d4c44d3ba8d9cc86eb6d70a3c1b2bd74b2f5cff687c852869a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel military response against Iran by Friday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-by-friday-oct-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.047872027525641424
2. Question: Who will lead on 538 on Friday? | Event: who-will-lead-on-538-on-friday | Choice: harris | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-7 | Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship | 65,089,511 | 65,089,511 |
8959e61cd42008d0f759a26f5f39d547f30d9f0f | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xb9956afc856de340e85dbea6094e37457cf32e9067eb8a52eecfe7dc7fddd65f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Who will lead on 538 on Friday? | Event: who-will-lead-on-538-on-friday | Choice: harris | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9... | no | 0 | will-elon-respond-to-openai-today | Will Elon respond to OpenAI today? | 65,453,497 | 65,453,497 |
92fc478f4cdc8a0f22d4434e5834c09f18b0b7f2 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xa57a712aa14e925e0e1615b737549a09b0f09db451910b68af6910b6f8b0494d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9230769230769231
2. Question: Kamala Harris fires campaign manager? | Event: kamala-harris-fires-campaign-manager | Choic... | no | 0 | will-bitcoin-migrate-from-sha-256-before-june | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | 65,454,378 | 65,454,378 |
37cb2fabb4327d4819f12de088ee4ddf9f396f0c | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xd9ce9f9f9b9c193c06b8fbab9284a3b5de28570ba21333df27138c60af1ce24a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris fires campaign manager? | Event: kamala-harris-fires-campaign-manager | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will FlyQuest win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Oct 25? | Event: ... | no | 0.038511 | afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? | 65,640,807 | 65,640,807 |
62d8c4f698f711025955cbcfdbc6fe053af5273f | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x4b028b2eb6290dac3f4a2107552ef6c8ffcf20386b14e4774b2cd485e63c3583 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FlyQuest win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Oct 25? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0.5-0.... | yes | 1 | us-election-tipping-point-state | Will Wisconsin be the tipping point state? | 65,646,986 | 65,646,986 |
2fa219710c9e6aa7c5e874b29f241351c9bdf122 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xe42a4127c61eefcacc6f08fd594a34ea703c2035b2615a2ecc9c92e646564704 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Oct 25? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Oct 25? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | us-election-tipping-point-state | Will Arizona be the tipping point state? | 65,646,986 | 65,646,986 |
b8a0160dba32e7e427dc956554b5945250b2b6fc | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xc908e26576854a5959929655f133899fc425f57ac89ab741a103c9e1b554812c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Oct 25? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 25? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will K... | yes | 1 | fide-world-rapid-chess-champion | Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship? | 66,043,721 | 66,043,721 |
81250c4fc9108382c72ce865143eeb8ee775db96 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x781b006ede44195c58fdb7b90828b02dcb6721036e6eaf9603489edcfd7cb479 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 25? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1.5-1.9 on Oct 25? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will K... | yes | 1 | fide-world-blitz-champion | Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | 66,152,062 | 66,152,062 |
df647f6f6cbdf6fb538d8ac4c3b7778177514e90 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xa58b2c2111e92b2aac84c1bda7312a19e252c2a1ac63fdf127edebbb139fc0b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1.5-1.9 on Oct 25? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 on Oct 25? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | fide-world-blitz-champion | Will Daniil Dubov win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | 66,152,062 | 66,152,062 |
a76e4e44dcadb793bf061719c4de6f61f53a6492 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xfec5fdfd0ed0a592fdb7fef2d4dab448376bf1d354b4fe7971c9aaf13226ac45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 on Oct 25? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala wins 270-268 - MI, PA, WI | Event: kamala-wins-with-blue-wall-mi-pa-wi-270-evs | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0001730950329224253
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | fide-world-blitz-champion | Will Levon Aronian win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | 66,152,062 | 66,152,062 |
37cc8e235b1eee88e33ab3eddf044dad3a2ed03a | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala wins 270-268 - MI, PA, WI | Event: kamala-wins-with-blue-wall-mi-pa-wi-270-evs | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0001730950329224253
2. Question: Will Frank Degods be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? | Event: the-house-poker-night-biggest-loser | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2024 | Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024? | 66,180,738 | 66,180,738 |
00cb582ad9d12de2cf8b74a6a0b0462dfadc9d94 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x4a044881137b2ec058392a87ab57c1bc22705ee5c385d726e4400d9a7f2f5c65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Frank Degods be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? | Event: the-house-poker-night-biggest-loser | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will rasmr be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? | Event: the-house-poker-night-biggest-loser | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0476190... | yes | 1 | fide-world-blitz-champion | Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | 66,180,738 | 66,180,738 |
7be7ad6b53d1a23290a9ca515d6aa39a72bc0bc7 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xb2b5c2e18ad5e98ad571e3da70ad24ace6a0edacf7e3458e2ffdcd9e62b6090d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will rasmr be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? | Event: the-house-poker-night-biggest-loser | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.047619047619047616
2. Question: Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points? | Event: will-trump-win-florida-by-8-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | fide-world-blitz-champion | Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | 66,180,738 | 66,180,738 |
7438e4b6499bb473680d01c4e734b480b56588da | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xce1d713317ab0cf909a3fa17fdecfde1366dbaee59047ecd0d656831cccfc727 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points? | Event: will-trump-win-florida-by-8-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 5? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will macdegods be the biggest l... | yes | 1 | fide-world-blitz-champion | Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | 66,180,738 | 66,180,738 |
5f379c03a01e99fad4b1ad8ae057055f6e94f9fa | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xf153eefd52dad93c1675f76c17b3c6b59e67cd5ae2a452a6b9a2d028f5833fc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 5? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will macdegods be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? | Event: the-house-poker-night-biggest-loser | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31? | 66,180,738 | 66,180,738 |
a6d5ef86dd02a19cecd9ed350b76ccc8f3603451 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x0956f8964da8a5e45733c6004a43d33e154a4f2893c9ca81e5b3015e374200f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will macdegods be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? | Event: the-house-poker-night-biggest-loser | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? | Event: iowa-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a ... | no | 0.000035 | israel-announces-ceasefire-by-tomorrow | Israel announces ceasefire by January 17? | 66,775,672 | 66,844,991 |
57a383373ca223ab9cc615bea2e7a1d2ce15f5a0 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x476aa256b781b5006306e3fe7caae37db555b1f6e41b2968d8afe76fb19bce29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? | Event: iowa-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 0.972187 | how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Will 26-29m people watch Trump inauguration? | 66,893,832 | 66,893,832 |
8413faaad6f82fec789e41f2f2ead16efe0af7ae | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x3683f32633bec2cf00f3314f8472a2ef1496ef12f05a50f25fef678921fe4ec9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the AP call t... | yes | 0.882353 | how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Will Trump's inaugural address be 2,200-2,400 words? | 66,959,896 | 66,959,896 |
60cbfaa0e43a3a2a0e5b199d9062a7757dc3d201 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x7e946743ffc7ef4a3a05d18075ed770ca913c871c74482046f92be9dffd35889 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 6? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US... | yes | 1 | how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,200-1,400 words? | 66,959,896 | 66,959,896 |
64c783509e4eb060b3c620b50c3e4bd138cda799 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xc59e9fb081b5c3397ce2d66108d497c787f731768b7f32bbe86b5ff2fdb453ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 6? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the AP... | yes | 1 | how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Will Trump's inaugural address be less than 1,200 words? | 66,959,896 | 66,959,896 |
5bfaee2e5f1e0a3ad6b729fba6132fd692ccad4c | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x6e857650c53170346d1ef3eb3854489d91f130edebf7e7a4e6f49de7b4d7e340 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 8? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump w... | yes | 0 | how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Less than 26m people watch Trump inauguration? | 66,984,211 | 66,984,274 |
f4013fd0121bcb0b23dcc42a6bea4a778ef2229c | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x27d3e9cbac99312b3d1f5ea0952f9cf88b4aa8d9dc4fc0f98f0133f9629c5a87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AP call the election on November 8? | Event: what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 5 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democr... | no | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Will 32-35 people watch Trump inauguration? | 67,002,990 | 67,002,990 |
3865c2a09bdf54c811bb606501c689e5a2b4a643 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xaea067c303e143e30319770c6900639160e917ef7c5bdf26363539498fc0fad8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win 5 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Will 35-38 people watch Trump inauguration? | 67,002,990 | 67,002,990 |
33c3346d09fcc665b2a352cfb9d5c0125f0a6e59 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x9e7a49b1879cbbe71acddda37f20a510dc130a77d35872abf61200d5626b1987 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 6 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 0 | ukraine-lowers-conscrption-age-before-may-9 | Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? | 67,213,178 | 67,213,178 |
88cc93927d7231030629bdcc0b70571f42aa8c6c | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x66a86bed2460bb982e1a9a22d111b08bea41349423ef9e8669570e488cf96de0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win 6 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December? | Event: will-russia-capture-kurakhove-before-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will three SpaceX Starshi... | no | 0 | will-trump-impose-25-tariff-on-mexicocanada | Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? | 67,342,426 | 67,524,864 |
d23accd8560fb69a2954cb3f43bb068b907945b2 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x1d9d9dc286a7465e529e9f370fff2efa57dc166c26fb5a1800aa41c4ba524a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December? | Event: will-russia-capture-kurakhove-before-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024? | Event: how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2024 | Choice... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-the-beast-games | Will Courtney Ferris (Player 424) win the Beast Games? | 67,523,053 | 67,523,053 |
e3723786774ab57252c5c333016530c5496c53fc | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x231e2a6bf0faf0dd49767271c58091559a3a105fe65dd822c1d4c51dbed7bc85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024? | Event: how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8201025762846959
2. Question: Will Minnesota be the closest state? | Event: closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Choi... | no | 0.986632 | who-will-win-the-beast-games | Will Jeffrey Randall Allen (Player 831) win the Beast Games? | 67,614,354 | 67,614,354 |
f08cfb5562663737acdd977c75ac44954b7a4e3d | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x086becf59481be2a94e8e5eaf5869ee4847b0329c7714fb6232cdbc37e74d433 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Minnesota be the closest state? | Event: closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Wisconsin by 4.0% or more? | Event: wisconsin-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Game 7 of th... | no | 1 | super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer | Will Jalen Hurts score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? | 67,758,398 | 67,758,398 |
44658e94ab30489a7c4fdd0db07530a35a7a21fd | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xcd14a0b8d67206ebf320c3e7754c5a1db352c4b163a90c2d6c598024e465a2b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Wisconsin by 4.0% or more? | Event: wisconsin-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Game 7 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7266316194383895
3. Qu... | no | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,758,398 | 67,758,398 |
88ab204a48bc614187a2a8b3289f189b1e3ed96a | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x37cfa686567ba8fbc1a68537af3f46750ee13df6b70d941a70f8a01740a4bf77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Game 7 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7266316194383895
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship | Event: world-chess-championship-game-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Will 125-130 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? | 67,837,522 | 67,837,522 |
dc9b535ada3e8e60d2caa873336c57d75e3587a6 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x43acbd862531ee9f0e853a0dfd1ae3af4ac157bc626eeb90b9fc5548b61017ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship | Event: world-chess-championship-game-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon respond to OpenAI today? | Event: will-elon-respond-to-openai-today | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin replace... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhaus-winner | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | 67,849,851 | 67,849,851 |
02cf6239ea0f9c8aff19d713166be44024d312c2 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xeaf218087dacf36884f626e0565147d380a6b8c2ddaa3e9fa0c633826bc58085 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon respond to OpenAI today? | Event: will-elon-respond-to-openai-today | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | Event: will-bitcoin-migrate-from-sha-256-before-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the AfD win less than 10%... | no | 0 | gpt-4pt5-released-by | Will GPT-4.5 be released by March 31? | 67,856,214 | 68,010,300 |
2976d184e4762cee13f204920f8a2bf6aa1c9cc9 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x20f1f6eda4569967806c4b39e5baa2abf6fda1f7198e1da79297e75f59926a53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | Event: will-bitcoin-migrate-from-sha-256-before-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0385114668974469... | yes | 1 | freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhaus-winner | Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | 67,932,806 | 67,932,806 |
9e319ff41f788906cf7ccb69d2d7661de3769dd7 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xbfd87642197a34493e367a585f3f70948c2d76337c559c4b2cf2d87fa1a82962 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03851146689744699
2. Question: Will Wisconsin be the tipping point state? | Event: us-election-tipping-point-state | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhaus-winner | Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | 67,932,806 | 67,932,806 |
dc0336d22f71b59233155035777278c65de1b4b8 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xce40b5df7e2237016777034d24da4b0b1d506bfde90328d686e8e5d265108684 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wisconsin be the tipping point state? | Event: us-election-tipping-point-state | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arizona be the tipping point state? | Event: us-election-tipping-point-state | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rap... | yes | 1 | freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhaus-winner | Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | 67,932,806 | 67,932,806 |
7141f816705e5d2d7ca13212160bdd7dff6ab18c | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xf1add3bfd3810102a76d4bf68ca09ab7a2c82dc299caef3f88ce4818d5668b8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arizona be the tipping point state? | Event: us-election-tipping-point-state | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship? | Event: fide-world-rapid-chess-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arjun Erigaisi win th... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Will another party win the second most seats in the next German election? | 68,322,483 | 68,322,483 |
878a36244e640329539f5254627179f53cc316f9 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x12992d76920358550d8c9f2c4f1dc63bb8c2ba0be8d48b51b8b8cc459bd7efe1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship? | Event: fide-world-rapid-chess-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Daniil Du... | no | 1 | will-cducsu-win-more-seats-than-spd-and-greens | Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD and Greens? | 68,411,381 | 68,411,381 |
5eb88a7ed480ad0a202ae98d8abc024de92e04e9 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x764d117785396915741ed433c69ec2404c600f65f316aa15186e24bb52e9a4fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Daniil Dubov win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Levon Aronia... | yes | 0.477667 | will-trump-increase-tariffs-on-canada-before-may | Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May? | 68,424,936 | 68,424,936 |
aac1d346a9f1c4723dd2f6806e3ff4f5cc1aa512 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xb51835f7c52476ef253e31f465a04deeffb10a7a61c9e2e9bd5ec94a6b8d452a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniil Dubov win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Levon Aronian win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will four SpaceX S... | yes | 1 | gpt-4pt5-released-by | Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28? | 68,490,514 | 68,490,514 |
a7bd71d3e525d085dd9c77aee75e0cf3aaf14cb1 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x5f060d4e55f2bff3b50212beb080beaf6623e440b096aa60301d49b61cf82cfb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Levon Aronian win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024? | Event: how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2024 | Choice: yes | C... | no | 1 | afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? | 69,051,582 | 69,051,582 |
35abd01e25eae98904138c8f8b82ce9be54e82c7 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xd68f141aff610df79e579ad93c223cd1771d69ab0a42d33ce5013bbbe7a43934 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024? | Event: how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? | 69,051,582 | 69,051,582 |
fd3bd80f7dbd042eb17de9309c83c042089517b6 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x0988e77ed51d8e78f5a210eeb5b18cdb04fe71132ebda6d4217229b0a1742a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ian Nepomni... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | 69,178,071 | 69,178,071 |
6f64970d2e9ce2faaa8d82ae640eb221aeb173cb | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x20cc003f4a4e1587148fb9629cda11d0db9a48aed16a3a50f6d024c58c615157 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ChatGPT ... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | 69,741,970 | 69,741,970 |
4f34b5c2058be647154ceef63682d6a42de7ba33 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x75e55a92fc1f68265a6739c8d51c6e12dcbaf3295831620f71df30a29671ea83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Israel announces c... | yes | 1 | how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 20-30% on the EU by June 30? | 69,840,495 | 69,840,495 |
273570426f4b06fb8154d9885df89d25fe9f9aff | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x39e8a1119c4f2a1f9755cf471aefa6fe67bf656e3dc0c9ea6801996bfa4cc4f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel announces ceasefire by January 17? | Event: israel-announces-ceasefire-by-tomorrow | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.4701204131783375e-05
3. Question: Will 26-... | yes | 1 | how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Will Trump impose no general tariff on the EU by June 30? | 69,848,197 | 69,848,197 |
cd5857e3fd13d3fc34e5808d1e64b2270c723b7f | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x41191dfe588a3609eb7b390e619766b40c5bc20a6cf2970b8cba6634c18eef8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel announces ceasefire by January 17? | Event: israel-announces-ceasefire-by-tomorrow | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.4701204131783375e-05
2. Question: Will 26-29m people watch Trump inauguration? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9721868376... | yes | 1 | how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 10-20% on the EU by June 30? | 69,848,201 | 69,848,201 |
e6916f83cf0f4c5b8211d26f6ea03a458caf9662 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xe0c88d64f8c21b78ca9c0304ee5b4d05cc1b48579215d18ac852aab9d4c0bfbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 26-29m people watch Trump inauguration? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9721868376990727
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 2,200-2,400 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | 70,258,743 | 70,258,743 |
2f4b65188cb7735b0ab959d672d6db674ad46a09 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xb3496ac97b1c025eb22bc859e390feeacc8c442b7110fc32c9e0d8f0f396f0af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 2,200-2,400 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8823529411764706
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,200-1,400 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | 70,306,147 | 70,306,147 |
651f80bc0e4bd6996d232c6df550f9784f946335 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x5aebf0de3b3b325075f4fd813d2884f5706b0ea1434a4745897af941b3ed1e7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,200-1,400 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be less than 1,200 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? | 70,984,341 | 70,984,341 |
cd401f55b4d0709bae4f0dec37f0899906789ba7 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x87c91c07f3f83b6a52d816d8e95d3be0c1040857e9d2949d67302a0288f181ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be less than 1,200 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Less than 26m people watch Trump inauguration? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.316... | no | 1 | next-chancellor-of-germany | Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? | 71,196,461 | 71,196,461 |
74abea4c47268974b55181243f66386d4ed7ac1f | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x31ffd9aab0ebb5be9ec63c29f42bbe1d6c7a43c246612ce3e42febc8658e242a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Less than 26m people watch Trump inauguration? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.316249463498718e-07
2. Question: Will 32-35 people watch Trump inauguration? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | 71,339,074 | 71,339,074 |
088ac46922f85c2cbcfdfdbc6b4ff03cc25217fc | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x7c0cea4d74ffb2c8451f8834fc9f93e72479eab3a4a98b75127940f5f60f1622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 32-35 people watch Trump inauguration? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 35-38 people watch Trump inauguration? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ukrain... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | 71,339,075 | 71,339,075 |
58c1029ff56ec857cdb7a8b082ea7549348beb1d | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x97af43bae4de23331bac3c9e8c9f7c657567f1b0d56906f5c2867d8e996edbd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 35-38 people watch Trump inauguration? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? | Event: ukraine-lowers-conscrption-age-before-may-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will T... | yes | 1 | of-rounds-to-elect-next-pope | Will the next Pope require 5–6 ballots? | 71,339,081 | 71,339,081 |
c6264aac25602d4d52dbb081ac3708e297a71e2a | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xa82836e520d785403a3ea029b221e3f0af255cc8bed794cc038b7c1bb78fc989 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? | Event: ukraine-lowers-conscrption-age-before-may-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? | Event: will-trump-impose-25-tariff-on-mexicocanada | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
... | no | 1 | of-rounds-to-elect-next-pope | Will the next Pope require 3–4 ballots? | 71,339,083 | 71,339,083 |
c90d9f1d53a9080b01c1d77d2c1b015a531a2af9 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x6c69e2199724de3c2885fee1a55d1c4069c80fa1384ab68a1dca9c4cd441f100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? | Event: will-trump-impose-25-tariff-on-mexicocanada | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Courtney Ferris (Player 424) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-april | Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? | 71,407,977 | 71,465,588 |
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