sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
c26ac05a3dd78b61c90f1f6e500ad29629d9c7a5 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x4f0cad7e5504080b120caed8b52c8f5ba113f68fd5c27b060f126b5f0ee73500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | 54,420,603 | 54,420,603 |
cd9b57126009c4cf9c15ead79bb62563f2c5f759 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x8cc1eabe78fd1bb60fc7b324f25b67351145be8b6413595592afdde15aa6ae35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain more than 353k jobs in February? | 54,420,603 | 54,420,603 |
9e667fae6c221396c7666e943e7c011609ff4180 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0xd449a3ec46769ad33bd1154d97dc7d6bba2709e36189da608510de01e68a0a3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain 200k-250k jobs in February? | 54,420,603 | 54,420,603 |
b5ecbf7aa060dc6e9df1087fa20ad84ae7a2f004 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x8157f1b7ceb1ac9e097e75c3e7762df35da8df0ab137bf1480dca2d34eb91f5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-march | Will US gain more than 275k jobs in March? | 55,479,674 | 55,479,674 |
06255e4555bb21f9d518cef212f50a98d1b3bc69 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x917823537958b87e1a83b872dbda16e924dbba45da62dfb453ad3d0ebefd935d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-march | Will US gain between 200k and 275k jobs in March? | 55,479,674 | 55,479,674 |
5958ca44b01e162f39f5c524cea3b590e4483cf2 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x9bcb53692dab73c6d68a98843e69a54ba7c38ef2c811d7078425b4b599dd60df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-biden-rcp-polling-margin | RCP polling: Trump by less than 1.4 on April 5? | 55,484,043 | 55,484,043 |
e3c5a839c27753d2d5c643b8902b5fdfb1544ce4 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0xd1d3bd17933262cb0dc6507b19618dc2608594c5e502ab1911fd99dbe88a766a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-biden-rcp-polling-margin | RCP: Trump by +1.4-1.6 on April 5? | 55,484,043 | 55,484,043 |
ceb8ec3cfb21792d2191a2f88c4320eb4f0266f4 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x2ac498ef11ded3339f19f9e40cc94f56c5348fa6ef965aba361ec31ff4ed9625 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-april | Will the US gain between 200-250k jobs in April? | 56,538,953 | 56,538,953 |
f851a278a23ae7e8ee8f135e33ae5a8e458c42ae | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x37de734c1d6312cd3b1ad6187defad2721c805cd052c69b89e1a337367628585 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-april | Will the US gain between 250-303k jobs in April? | 56,538,953 | 56,538,953 |
1bc113bf32ff7c7ec8a9b57931021edc94a3a1e7 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x98bc1dae77ad789ec2d638cce495a6f03c4028ec372eba7f7c2fa8e17f63e06c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-april | Will the US gain more than 303k jobs in April? | 56,538,953 | 56,538,953 |
b05707bca8f67cffcbc6a6c27852698efd4e7cf9 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x72ee8db878926679548b3ade5101a3eb02d1698844bb15b8496503d1944ff38a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2024 | Will Real Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League? | 57,712,081 | 57,712,081 |
5f60165e6fd2f3ccc027fdfa34dc052fbcd1b4d8 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x76873fec4bf65626daf9e73bff0e52f76991fff5597e6b8faccf4ea3e914c46d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-scotland-vs-switzerland | Will Scotland win? | 58,585,775 | 58,585,775 |
6f0b1107569d2bcfcf7dd739c67f65022e21e458 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x96f4545177fe5a388204fce48fb5bd1409943e5f71bbcab867538c7bfc4e9665 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-scotland-vs-switzerland | Will the match be a draw? | 58,585,775 | 58,585,775 |
e27f6b461333e08f657720dd27360db8c0d43179 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0xb6d196540e10b28fe2c7c88c21b3b1209b2ba672628fe0dbce173f1ee0b44bb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21?
Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | 68,510,645 | 68,510,645 |
5712469e41137bb58476ffdec9aa778831bc0d74 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0xcca9cf39b58e258061af40fe6f433656a25d5251f1e21724b45111396586bf49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21?
Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output st... | no | 1 | bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | 68,510,645 | 68,510,645 |
bd91b02c42e70d9e18c8923decfb97e5b84a2c9e | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0xd934a7f63f0038b3e3fc89374abfc88969903465f4de496b00bc4226094e044a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on Feb... | no | 1 | ethereum-above-2800-on-february-28 | Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | 68,510,645 | 68,510,645 |
ea3f54a1cd64344ee93f8e6322b7366c9603be80 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0xe242d01b8e1ff74703d6719d7087a34eaafe7e395739434448a9036e03fb8141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-above-99000-on-february-28 | Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? | 68,510,645 | 68,510,645 |
c5802c72c625546092593c31e3f2ffcbbeb943d5 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x294f1339088cc8920b3708941b72e5768cf650186b02a7b9c9055e05c2b83819 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | yes | 0.110037 | solana-above-130-on-march-21 | Solana above $130 on March 21? | 69,777,573 | 69,777,573 |
f1a9220b524d888ec77a633e0d840169484fe9fd | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0xc3e94e2db4052a7e49f9c3edbcc1119664ce565c4062019382f1f511e3c98af0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | no | 0.472885 | ethereum-above-2300-on-march-7 | Ethereum above $2,300 on March 7? | 69,777,573 | 69,777,573 |
e58ff85605efe3a8799c7e91931a0c4fa4628276 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x6026aae0d4631b521519d75ccde5cff15da8638ef48406abc977c7d1c7f3fac7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-4 | Ethereum Up or Down on April 4? | 69,923,800 | 69,923,800 |
fa3c249804ccf27a7614831814a9f37440e6aed9 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x292dcb0fc0b7587b20bdaa4eef6d0447d5260b6ceb5de12e42e658407eeb6686 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-5 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5? | 69,977,389 | 69,977,389 |
6627044b10c0b2a66f49afc9ab832da4b64db4e1 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x3ce13561c0e9a80e0699146c1366482f9ee990de12feb14a01e3f536b0cd6cc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-8 | Ethereum Up or Down on April 8? | 70,061,603 | 70,061,603 |
4423db9cb6bf493c034121ebd7e2c75216a11191 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x49076aa1a06bcaf257e4abcf6353e57205d0de3ac574f657afcf81ffe070808c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-9 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9? | 70,182,734 | 70,182,734 |
e10fddd4ecf982dc2e46bd3e6b7cd53796b84780 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x11146be1ba0e4a117c8c2cb71f82e2a5cb2a2a6617a90cdad430bf06ca7393f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-14 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 14? | 70,303,473 | 70,303,473 |
01b124809144d48bb55e3cd471bc8821783e20fa | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x05d68428626b8776a5073143691ba882ece251294fd7f1c3c79a5cb54d9cefcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-17 | Ethereum Up or Down on April 17? | 70,448,358 | 70,448,358 |
0e005f4f8c24ada58e367235dd0ec51a15567a5f | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x72d65e893e654e1314c74ff0a0f17c9f40ccd9d8f4c1a5ee96af327003311665 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-18 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? | 70,466,083 | 70,466,083 |
e7e5ce0016eb65c7047694d357f5bc504c646b39 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x7466e015222b7cef8b59b2877e5a827722c4789ed11e24ab30609fe2c3684957 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-22 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 22? | 70,631,962 | 70,631,962 |
706aa4a3569dec2b3d8cb35003fcaf16aa7ae067 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x8176dc8086de2e042d5503bc520612d4f4edb7efd6adc0dc69efc49a23637b04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 0.368322 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-24 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 24? | 70,711,735 | 70,711,735 |
0933a4139a7aa0eea213be2fff6e52fa932a19bb | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x363f56b166af36056838be5faf6e65fadb7b0da380b64bc4b91be0e984dcdfa1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-25 | Ethereum Up or Down on April 25? | 70,775,770 | 70,775,770 |
80d772cbe1a39773f423d9fd3a0037c64fed03db | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x85a97d5c2733df671b7e8b0ca7924f98a947b42c6d18da2b418f51cd1aa4ba98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-25 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 25? | 70,775,770 | 70,775,770 |
2dd0904ee90ff94417cb3f4b0b7a49c469b42521 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x75fb32a716846d7caafbae84181385b6ce881fb288baec1f0c0b65b744d179f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-30 | Ethereum Up or Down on April 30? | 70,954,508 | 70,954,508 |
32d9b621a0570e4eb4167aa1f91d13272cf6ba82 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0xce749e1f8e0d883bbb92e7d4cc3a69cc67fde693827bcba72df53f359ffe6a35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-30 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30? | 70,954,508 | 70,954,508 |
343f663bb6016bde9e9fdb3ea7822576f590eade | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0xfeff9178f51870403a69518794cb8ef043879bcac57628333eb31e168039f0bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-1 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? | 70,991,135 | 70,991,135 |
07a3e5406505d5d5ba77e133f16bd2fdc389fcd8 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x059e8e932580c8630a80f784a740d295fe5a16e31acb4003dd794ce71c98f281 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-6 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? | 71,194,931 | 71,194,931 |
0dd26e642cc32b287580325b88f1e94d0a56de20 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x592ca7f0bfe5301554f14f1c792c0eb1b5d3ee10de15ee14582c3df16ceb1ca8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-9 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? | 71,317,042 | 71,317,042 |
d2302ade89911e47bb620497a10d28c64dfa919f | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x595ae557aded18551543db808bfae7241db82e0b6d1089c933cae0d1aed25624 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-14 | Ethereum Up or Down on May 14? | 71,520,961 | 71,520,961 |
6634861f5788994568fdbd2d35596dc5e0a3b922 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0xd1001a3f65b0c1acc0bdf0299cb37452f09542a46c030067f4b12f3e1a77f7f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-15 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? | 71,561,076 | 71,561,076 |
04344195d91b4ca66657b7ccc292fcc6d83b9045 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x6d8a60fb340972e79d0718410998fd658796ca9f5d775fc5b3c8cffe5c67fe37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Ethereum Up or Down on May 20? | 71,760,918 | 71,760,918 |
afa924b71a55da74af421ad293b52bba08aed44f | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x703f03a10efb47c3017a5c211e776ae9433b5cab20ef42c080b66ad2f4a3db68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | 71,760,918 | 71,760,918 |
ecf533b4c7db852511cd02a2c93dcb0016e811fc | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x6a8eabbee118b1cde779e9e768ee1f99d92e8ee6176bcce18d9602efcac003f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-21 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? | 71,802,520 | 71,802,520 |
9de01218d474bbbbb5069312185dcb39ea7a9eae | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x52adfdd7f8686efbb45036ad0a3a1d1501f70ab5fbe7da4ea7434565338a49ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-24 | Ethereum Up or Down on May 24? | 71,977,683 | 71,977,683 |
eb398e379a2a0cb92611f2539f63fc43f14394f1 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x700ce3a95cbd0eb0293e658162fda9039e756c1901fa5197d1c4d48e9b2018a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-24 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 24? | 71,977,683 | 71,977,683 |
a09899c117d86a4e6669b5be3d5bcac844c4abd7 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x403797f35c05bc86a7a0cd525bdc049d37d2808dcf9b630410ff9bdb92680d95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-27 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? | 72,246,337 | 72,246,337 |
7b47d0d4a0b61317b317f5ee8ef138db5d702df2 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0xd304e4ff9a4af1751893fd517063e0c970fb1b8b8117941399ba1b4e3d0425b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | E... | down | 0.314978 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-2 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? | 72,342,179 | 72,342,179 |
2f9f1024cb9994a545f3b10e915083863359ff79 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x0e63532d99df17efee2975718ad9e4b38bae7465303f82c8448ca46ac3fe0489 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | Event: ethereum-above-2800-on-february-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? | E... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? | 72,525,839 | 72,525,839 |
c54f98a1b2fd3f6bd3b4bad8394d0583d07fa828 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x533698648ff2d4f95f73f431466de81d7ef4014acd288b4ee64a90ca51c7206c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? | Event: ethereum-above-2800-on-february-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-99000-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana above $130 on March 21? | Event: ... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? | 72,525,839 | 72,525,839 |
2fa9379670726adeb39a6584f600baa2e5fb5443 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0xf54e8a14f321694906b458dff4de23975974497a8b182943b2afcfb674155166 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-99000-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Solana above $130 on March 21? | Event: solana-above-130-on-march-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.11003685412559489
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,300 on March 7? | ... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? | 72,525,839 | 72,525,839 |
aee80747f95816ec7dd1d0a689514f22a257d2c0 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0xa54efe8d1d076b41412fa8dc0a7cf214237925283d4831b64843f2739f6a22c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $130 on March 21? | Event: solana-above-130-on-march-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.11003685412559489
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,300 on March 7? | Event: ethereum-above-2300-on-march-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4728845175512973
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 4... | down | 0.024208 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-9 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 9? | 72,649,424 | 72,649,424 |
4795d6db070d774e497fc7a0345cc4ebb9920ec9 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0xe5caaf78088c1bbcb9a6397235eaca407b21d2b201a8788f276efc6700722a35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,300 on March 7? | Event: ethereum-above-2300-on-march-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4728845175512973
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 4? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5? | Event: bi... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-9 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? | 72,649,424 | 72,649,424 |
b11d81c72f7f6746728a0848280bfb494320d50f | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x661a6a63fcfa07e1f419c3053333c0efe0bfc8299aeab45654f705af77213ab3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 4? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-5 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 8? | Event: ethereum-up-or-dow... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-16 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? | 72,851,300 | 72,851,300 |
862a21441dac0f9825eb66f18221b3b939ccd395 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x7b58cbd9c5d270a5803d61be85dc6980bb5d096f9552ba4b433b84b904bce091 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-5 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 8? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-8 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on... | up | 0.002545 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-16 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? | 72,851,300 | 72,851,300 |
4cc3c0bd51390d9e37bbe68a845979100715ba99 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x75b5f41af2ad847300b232fd9b9126ed44da1f233c0a7ebc94f3f5382a49e533 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 8? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-8 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-9 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 14? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-o... | up | 0.507872 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-18 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? | 73,542,018 | 73,542,018 |
ce9729c262ac33455133b36483418e7b19596a08 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x8138aa952c60dd7161c3b1f9e61c52a50d8ba42a9c809b2d9457151c19161138 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-9 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 14? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-14 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 17? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-18 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? | 73,542,018 | 73,542,018 |
aaa88506cb8fceb19fd7ab9802a1d7680aa660b8 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0xa91f38f47261a695e54edad8be6af924c3cb3df19de6f262df2c70251a67c5ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 14? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-14 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 17? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-17 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-25 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? | 73,542,018 | 73,542,018 |
b78961a8a820b4c2f9611ab6027d129a19cd6e4f | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x265293e363cb6c04c523e31674869a80288d77e092d098965401ac5210bcd42e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 17? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-17 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-18 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 22? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-do... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? | 74,992,502 | 74,992,502 |
a4ea72b52e9fdc30ea636fd57e7bdf519c7475ed | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x3fdcc8acb8def23b90c917ec7bf5f0c7eaca5f805171c874a69248fd5a7f8c4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-18 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 22? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-22 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 24? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-do... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8? | 74,992,502 | 74,992,502 |
4bdd32956c5e94cb1ac0497f38dfa2c0fe51618e | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x8a5ea53e9be5337fc80c804af2fb51523504bf53e4fc328c09ee35ff934cdc55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 22? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-22 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 24? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-24 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.36832189803103754
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 25? | Event:... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8? | 74,992,502 | 74,992,502 |
f787f819918a2be623a7025e28e94baf9ec9cd04 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x10bde7a33c8f7d44a7791ee00d7d1245abcf290267d2dc098248281776168e37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 24? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-24 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.36832189803103754
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-25 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 25? | Event... | no | 0.94311 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8? | 74,992,503 | 74,992,503 |
43fcbd0563b9700e3399508f62151148e8017bb9 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x2cfdff339c1ccfb9b66f69916502bb0a5e2da61e845d1750a7fbb763f38bbf06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-25 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 25? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-25 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 30? | Event: ethereum-up-o... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8? | 74,992,503 | 74,992,503 |
287e4b933111ece29d2ce4ddd67f5a43fe16824a | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x6d2a7e51ffc91af437a163087752cdc9eb191e9c69f578e29dc6da24738bdbb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 25? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-25 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 30? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-30 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8? | 74,992,503 | 74,992,503 |
7c66973bed8ba72a900f2954ef634a7a5dcb2302 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x9fe5033b27146a63f7c18a0879e113839b39695c3733f89acf4bf690a8741393 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on April 30? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-april-30 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-30 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? | 74,992,503 | 74,992,503 |
5c8f7b44245c592c8751e3cb8e09564818e8146e | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x2f09361b8989907745c6811da5f6b04a15059007ad32d8fa9252175f2aaa106b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-april-30 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-1 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-6 |... | no | 0.241826 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-15 | Will Elon tweet less than 215 times August 8–August 15? | 75,044,362 | 75,044,362 |
4ae63b04d624c1d105522e986dbdba5b13277e65 | 0x1da35a47ce2aae3572c98aa32ca2c052971624d6 | 0x19ea2eb12b80ae94cdc86c0c588286ddfd16bb26938a4fce66742b1297a33073 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-1 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-6 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-9 | Cho... | yes | 0.207998 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-15 | Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15? | 75,044,366 | 75,044,366 |
de4459bdbd61804a1fa96b253348e532a4edacf2 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x5d56e64fed8cb2704f8ed5b1d257a0e23755064b77ccc05048c29fa6a844c003 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open?
Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | 2025-us-open-winner-w | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | 76,166,553 | 76,166,553 |
a55a452642b7d21317111ab2ac92300518ea8129 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x999c696edc9d63419d48164a6094711c78d4dcde8738dadbe036c512e59cba42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08?
Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., ... | yes | 1 | uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | 76,227,071 | 76,227,071 |
ff806ea8f20f86dcb282699f55037cd87a684faf | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x315bc10cea2926ed706b38c329481c7c7cb341e8aff417019c736347734c5c8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14?
Event: lal-bar-val-2... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | 76,480,853 | 76,480,853 |
5a9f34f8ee9331c5cca00dc8828d689b61c6b40e | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x3cdaac98e672eb86b4cb3dd806b2308acb7207e907b4ccfbe580ca22c9e4e186 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | 76,874,518 | 76,874,518 |
1bb23fd8a142034c1cff7996a52e9b590617568b | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x0ef4868e7cc60a37978bf2e80230cc2ae2c29fc8bc14db4a967f7aff0a1ddeea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | ucl-nap-spo-2025-10-01 | Will Napoli vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? | 77,159,783 | 77,159,783 |
aa1f42f2a7cf6ea9eb7ee8c3d1db440e656edeb2 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x3bd58a81092f5f3042b40f3242289548649913e99a092901de89f2db6cdc37a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | ucl-nap-spo-2025-10-01 | Will Napoli win on 2025-10-01? | 77,159,783 | 77,159,783 |
dcff75af824a7b4a5e7c7f99b955bea7b0ca030f | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x484ff26e3e3816c0c05fe3c4b71111faa65cb8d6af35d3f267c31bd057718d9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | sea-laz-tor-2025-10-04 | Will Lazio vs. Torino end in a draw? | 77,331,451 | 77,331,451 |
4de8a2f1e27c9132232ff94672f78269d01cb98c | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x823c073525927b3d7d92214bfcbf122f05b563df8e608850cead92697507e85e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | bun-b04-uni-2025-10-04 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-10-04? | 77,331,462 | 77,331,462 |
ff7a8eb505e8edd9f03483542a141e228d9c136f | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x7344406c2c33255afc25b7bde3c5791fa7bb5f980023a0f5a961e014ffe2ed62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | uef-mal-nld-2025-10-09 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-09? | 77,484,086 | 77,484,086 |
0ad53d37474f0ef6d40ab0ab2a5138c129e39bb8 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x46ae870b56ed7b415a3bd4724f19ff0ea00507c0b2fadc736f093a5d1918706b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | uef-cyp-bih-2025-10-09 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-10-09? | 77,484,117 | 77,484,117 |
f94ff425b053e9d147fb1e90a137a25c75da67fb | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x93c3ea7084b14595ff62cc850fc40b5760b2b06c62f96d08fac4d1a8fef7a71d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | uef-ger-lux-2025-10-10 | Will Germany win on 2025-10-10? | 77,522,026 | 77,522,026 |
a32af53343280742df525a34c08a1248d494d8db | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x052f2f74f3a3805415165db3d582e80d0acd27ac900b75885b6fc00f62e32d15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | no | 1 | uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Will Kosovo win on 2025-10-10? | 77,522,279 | 77,522,279 |
1b2e91c595f471ce423e3731ee0ca9811dc63837 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x9403f4d96958eae44a2560ac0634df18f7e2697b876360e912a4519bba1ae763 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | uef-kaz-lie-2025-10-10 | Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-10-10? | 77,522,289 | 77,522,289 |
6f979885462cfbbb5117a8dc8efb52864577d1e7 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x7eacfba01742b276a78a34198f52a80c053c9e5f2afb09c6d95392a6a87273cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | 77,608,434 | 77,608,434 |
2d89ff6aec42abcca64bd3b07bf8d77c90ddaa21 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x1801f481a410f7c2e781bba74a222a0f7e6306eead05aca38e093963734a8add | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | uef-smr-cyp-2025-10-12 | Will Cyprus win on 2025-10-12? | 77,608,524 | 77,608,524 |
e1892f211dc7d413dbfbb6dbe15248ca2efbd0e3 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0xdae21429203621232f95735d01d1daf0a3cfb23e5baec003f20e48086badc7e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | uef-mac-kaz-2025-10-13 | Will North Macedonia win on 2025-10-13? | 77,657,791 | 77,657,791 |
b7e529741ee1fd97df0e51c5475728fd9e5d2c75 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x81e3d101c9e2615382249e34533c72ff78991599dff8a67bfb925e55e437f32e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | uef-swe-kvx-2025-10-13 | Will Sweden win on 2025-10-13? | 77,657,830 | 77,657,830 |
eebf121cac584686bd043b14fde3d19d6fe43ed3 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0xb6aacacc464eb2583dba4db17c197631474f53a68f29657e42285fd3408ab45c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | no | 1 | uef-tur-geo-2025-10-14 | Will Georgia win on 2025-10-14? | 77,693,268 | 77,693,268 |
844d8ac49c57e787c3f5af516144d96e38ceebe5 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x64c75058dc333f0b8f7928483d4e544abbf641f12c07cf5def5f4df28aceaafc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | uef-esp-bul-2025-10-14 | Will Spain win on 2025-10-14? | 77,693,280 | 77,693,280 |
367f1528c1810e124cdac2ba86e9e8d402fb4b53 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x155eaf72601488147e1276506e920829ba1075cf06d99fb4fad56ff29124e029 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | uef-est-mol-2025-10-14 | Will Estonia win on 2025-10-14? | 77,694,956 | 77,694,956 |
b48852e6114712a09ba90ed94d65f559f29f5b47 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x55065ab2c09360e89a43e6494f0fff733220a6644595d348d813e5748539da5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | fif-usa-aus-2025-10-14 | Will United States win on 2025-10-14? | 77,737,491 | 77,737,491 |
954f9713af306ab8ed5d3afffef293f7047ddd37 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0xc235d23a27e243213b646a1d29bdb88f36065817323891ca3bf9d598d121258e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-osa-2025-10-18 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-18? | 77,888,263 | 77,888,263 |
f00a8023c124d7df2a0bb0f11d4c64e0279c6015 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0xa90230bd14949a665af24b184e00ad153d2b07bf31737c716b42d870047b0eb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | no | 1 | lal-vil-bet-2025-10-18 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-18? | 77,888,288 | 77,888,288 |
6524e8e554ebefe2d3ef052da9768cdd934c2646 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x820eacd60c5c61a4b45c963b9b23883a232e06a2a6106444a7c1dc9864f2b319 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | no | 1 | lal-ala-val-2025-10-20 | Will Alaves win on 2025-10-20? | 77,957,865 | 77,957,865 |
0e9130a9f56e4b497a94f69d1c6e947140c05ee0 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0xffa740e3ea988ac69dcbffd101bd79e3ffaebb84b10442b40a7d42db6ad1220c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | 77,997,555 | 77,997,555 |
f3c3975ed35b7eb918b26ffd17e01314be9879c8 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x3015e7d8df46660be0acf4ac1b4cdee8fbb43ad7682df19730e0f59ff275487f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | no | 1 | ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | 77,997,598 | 77,997,598 |
330a862b478069ac3994e545b86987ba5911d7f9 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x7c0fee0191763cf31b951e3863c9f694c04e6964ece9ea7e3880cb3fed97d20e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | no | 1 | ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-10-22? | 78,038,970 | 78,038,970 |
9653022547944831713a44a2b32d4a6e71d4c011 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0xd48d5927685519378d2fe2fa62a24b3682ff7595dacd4439df109abff3b0c667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | no | 1 | ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-10-22? | 78,038,985 | 78,038,985 |
335fb0c7ecd7135383d1c4d93bbebb7488cb5b66 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x87cc8578ed4be3115268bece3d7342ded5a1a00c7c9f59acb95c897be2e621d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | uel-fey1-pao2-2025-10-23 | Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-10-23? | 78,082,427 | 78,082,427 |
e8b3b0f4c44469c6673bbc6ab5c2f76a369c57e2 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x639d736a43dd411f190302f71583870a9a35f8e7a4d8b5056c3fe70f3dc933d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | no | 1 | uel-scb1-crv1-2025-10-23 | Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2025-10-23? | 78,082,454 | 78,082,454 |
c23a6607e9041dbf55cb9e4f81a8d11ee42aa654 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x2c786f3a82f79980c7621fa2e6b463198edb080d3ac6360ce069395d110ece34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | Event: 2025-us-open-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | sea-mil-pis-2025-10-24 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24? | 78,145,650 | 78,145,650 |
d3721617d43a4921c397e4d4de0c10bb33b52e28 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x3c751a621892f1eeb5b44fc3966347d32e355d401c72720dba38154b0bb702dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | C... | yes | 1 | bun-hof-hei-2025-10-25 | Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-25? | 78,190,269 | 78,190,269 |
40ccd405322d0a9aa74c22e5aff14019f6e90396 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x6920458f73f4357cf73148b2cb7f0e4a060d9d4fd97c1f49f8d0c07b6e6b0f91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Napoli vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? | Event: ucl-nap-spo-2... | no | 1 | bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-25? | 78,190,296 | 78,190,296 |
130fa192dc37fc5a5bb9a546ccbb3ab9f9485282 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x4c8b979751c09e608b6424d97cd0c0126d8239e235618bc9b243c7a62f70c6b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Napoli vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? | Event: ucl-nap-spo-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-nap-spo-2025... | no | 1 | sea-udi-lec-2025-10-25 | Will Lecce win on 2025-10-25? | 78,190,343 | 78,190,343 |
51272ff71ec533e241f50bbb8e089a4ebb11c607 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0xa62a709d79215df7082e43d73bfd4d557efd5a7e31bee3c3a62c1f7c591f8e9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Napoli vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? | Event: ucl-nap-spo-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-nap-spo-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: sea-laz-tor-2025-10... | no | 1 | ere-fey-psv-2025-10-26 | Will PSV win on 2025-10-26? | 78,212,224 | 78,212,224 |
b179ed3346313a7b427f91e4c4b02bb68e456c0c | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x484cb1ff4e261fa49b7143b4f2aa2f2928edfcc2c749a5246cdb64c3cdcc2294 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-nap-spo-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lazio vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: sea-laz-tor-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-10-04? | Event: bun-b04-uni-2025-10-0... | yes | 1 | sea-juv-udi-2025-10-29 | Will Juventus win on 2025-10-29? | 78,384,516 | 78,384,516 |
0dc20a75deaf35c9cc268fdabcae3ea37a5fa953 | 0x1da8011f9f6481c9564bdb392609821da4f76fca | 0x4e51de3129b76add333dcfe7a46d60c2c98f059b5e1b1753cf5418d3e475e96a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: sea-laz-tor-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-10-04? | Event: bun-b04-uni-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-09? | Event: uef-mal-nld-2025... | yes | 1 | sea-int-fio-2025-10-29 | Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? | 78,384,537 | 78,384,537 |
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