sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
50c897b989c83aa5341507b6a74b4edb2e68b4c2 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x80c090e08e63fe3e1b42c746d4700174f871890714c65c77214e913051dbc0a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Courtney Ferris (Player 424) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jeffrey Randall Allen (Player 831) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9866322865251026
3. Questio... | no | 0.562666 | spacex-starship-flight-test-9 | Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 achieve a sucessful splashdown? | 71,990,856 | 72,055,961 |
f5f08d9b5be80fbf9978f55fc8ad9d827a0cfca5 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x9c0376d7567e477376b557c4cf94a165c5bb6fb41439bac94d26339979e8f00b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeffrey Randall Allen (Player 831) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9866322865251026
2. Question: Will Jalen Hurts score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 0 | will-trump-remove-10-blanket-tariff-before-july | Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff before July? | 72,124,943 | 72,124,943 |
46ace25336aa29c9ab23faf59db5a2ce1a6567b3 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x880d1c0783b4019966a133bcd7c0185664a0ff8cabc0dd4443a6d9c8b7208558 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jalen Hurts score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 125-130 million peopl... | no | 0 | new-orleans-escape-mastermind-last-man-standing | New Orleans escape mastermind last man standing? | 72,236,486 | 72,236,486 |
9a925b7ccff1145af5b8f71ede8b328b6f511e52 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xa50032d3289df56118a00be33f4f2b3c5ec01b5c02fd2ff637b6924b0ae1e647 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 125-130 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 ... | no | 0 | spacex-starship-flight-test-10 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode? | 72,316,877 | 75,242,925 |
0dc541fcfca0197f6ee09d8f45d3129612e0ea77 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xc965a506301a765d36361b7866b839e57114067c8db9a58b4a901756697dfe3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 125-130 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhaus-winner | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 0.000007 | spacex-starship-flight-test-10 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster? | 72,316,887 | 72,316,887 |
6c95da0bbea039eadfba218b5af51a9d8fc710e8 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xe061e8a383db6552ce23b6eb357b8f3a54255c2bf623120465c9cf85979feade | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhaus-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will GPT-4.5 be released by March 31? | Event: gpt-4pt5-released-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Vince... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 25-30m views on day 1? | 72,533,094 | 72,533,094 |
b97c309daaa15852aa52f5a1f421840548890c2e | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x238b7e71d49b3d337428480e53db2eca380e1213e6010e9f98fc7e8123f7213a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GPT-4.5 be released by March 31? | Event: gpt-4pt5-released-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhaus-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Javo... | yes | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-may | Will a dozen eggs be between $4.50-4.75 in May? | 72,647,019 | 72,647,019 |
6593bea75474419ecda53b308c4678a3b5418cf3 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xee3a389d0c1345900a200d0d11d241bd30bc05a6c761d69b741a967bf98830d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhaus-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhau... | yes | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-may | Will a dozen eggs be below $4.50 in May? | 72,647,019 | 72,647,019 |
f6b7f59546bdd3d96847201903fd8f5c3bc11898 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xe729569d2e6a317d7310ec03e614c15796503e2b11ba94f429ffb7abb3fa1089 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhaus-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenha... | no | 0.311503 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Will a dozen eggs be above $5.00 in June? | 72,648,868 | 73,998,645 |
5cd2fc45ef2700ff954293c85b1eca22e60a41c3 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x9b88ee73d37681f5956c11e576c6b41f6d48d9fdb2af182e88478ce0666ae77b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhaus-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another party win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-ge... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-723 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 40–45 million views on day 1? | 73,094,814 | 73,094,814 |
d21c2eb93cbcd8fc514756b3c4ea1879954292b7 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xf316c427e8ed298b5ea7b442e22c9122c82d02ed55eb9ba73b17685b51889090 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD and Greens? | Event: will-cducsu-win-more-seats-than-spd-and-greens | Choice:... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-723 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1? | 73,094,814 | 73,094,814 |
545c6202f8f466ceecb3003f5aef946f1fb77bee | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x3c80c81b85ea42a229ccbc89b9c9c80c042b22872b835ef9585cd3a1ab542e34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD and Greens? | Event: will-cducsu-win-more-seats-than-spd-and-greens | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May? | Event: will-trump-increase-tariffs-on-canada-before-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.477666... | no | 1 | of-views-of-mrbeast-lose-100-lbs-win-250000-on-day-1 | Will MrBeast's next video get 50m views or more? | 73,100,244 | 73,100,244 |
50f203346a9e4d3c6c1a450b132dcaa8f8a4c24c | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x05d3ebc9772dd04a9548dded6461a8f0dd4343d330a2796c20bf59fcd0838c00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May? | Event: will-trump-increase-tariffs-on-canada-before-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.47766686513605444
2. Question: Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28? | Event: gpt-4pt5-released-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | no | 0.002599 | spacex-starship-flight-test-10 | Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown? | 73,259,096 | 75,699,148 |
1bfcdb63e329e976cdc546ef27960e79eba026db | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x54ae26e70d2ace6369d22d3ea51610a780de3ad0f251fc9f3f1b640520ec69ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28? | Event: gpt-4pt5-released-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the ... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-june-30 | Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? | 73,423,033 | 73,423,033 |
d67a0c09d6a6a26200f79a9fbf0d2370aaac4529 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xe9face23ffd55a7691c388fc789fbfdc34cb13279af54f74a266fccec5fd9817 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | how-many-votes-will-reconciliation-bill-get-in-the-house | Will the Reconciliation bill receive 219 or more votes? | 73,575,656 | 73,575,656 |
17d6e26858e95985b709946dcb0fd1401e3401f6 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x7da7c4c7bb6450384e2c5531bff911fae9d5185c46526917ce9d75dfe5350e29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | when-will-trump-sign-the-big-beautiful-bill-into-law | Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill on July 4? | 73,600,003 | 73,600,003 |
4ee56930385941c82cab6f62d8fa3c082a44511f | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x2a05c4416f02c6bb616816d7410c7d1602c6c2cf9a4f379286beebae4ec1d831 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,851,200 | 73,851,200 |
92ea53cdba4cdbc7883262dc416cbc1e82cbb9b2 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x6d41029c7b01c54bf7153dc39f88798d82ff4b411bdd6b23d055481bb3150aa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 20-30% on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,851,200 | 73,851,200 |
febc5bd337dd8e71356f20d37d3d3db8ffb43469 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x58e6dabcbe0b32490a7280dfe1c3cce28f10aa76dbae3740c2863742f5fc4679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 20-30% on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump impose no general tariff on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,958,191 | 73,958,191 |
f4d95d8c7fd80b85f5106f3ff1eaef0bc1e536de | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x21e6f4e425c3786fb031b3afa52388b302dc005c1dbceef0715ef1d425f21dc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump impose no general tariff on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 10-20% on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Will a dozen eggs be between $4.75-5.00 in June? | 73,998,645 | 73,998,645 |
26fbaac43d5ef5bba67443ebd0104a93d3754ed6 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xaf0bb30d06e5a71b246b8e91a68c7fc12c0229bfe73d58952598becf43ccfac1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 10-20% on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Choice: yes | Confi... | no | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Will a dozen eggs be between $3.5-3.75 in June? | 73,998,645 | 73,998,645 |
1b99c6c7e503ff424bbc8018de3de9672ffef72e | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0xbc4cdb10426216b17912fee2f4aaaa3d588634f4ca10054ad759b10c89ab5d5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-june | Will a dozen eggs be below $3.50 in June? | 73,998,645 | 73,998,645 |
57ecddcfd1a02e24811f2f337207056e53d15a33 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x6036d9c94b5511a7481fcb128bd47e9843460305b097ad5ab4348d6db92fc8ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-paris-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Will Italy win the UEFA Women's Euro? | 74,302,187 | 74,302,187 |
71c5fcbd2dd99ddf5396e829f1237f92c6f823d5 | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x7037e9d87b1db5903dbd547ab9e4f8f580684c1b93e4940aea1d9ecbb18f5709 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Event: next-chancellor-of-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Luis Ant... | yes | 1 | us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025-945 | Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? | 74,603,007 | 74,603,007 |
24b660661cee72a63b2b0374ea067b88a5f028bb | 0x1d0d81f55610df0adaaa0da37611f1f4556cef5f | 0x2c01ea0b0a3d91e4fe2c4aec3ef54d21d48ca35486f23eb060d30f4a5b69cbc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Event: next-chancellor-of-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? ... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? | 74,644,486 | 74,644,486 |
163a85471277f380e56e43c8c243195b8a0f3527 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x84f606bd4d1eb8a41215a9725ddd6e8d7cab9db962c57af2c9190ac49f6fcee7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday?
Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | 60,146,707 | 60,146,707 |
25169765f7f5c9ce2527e8d6fd5ba02580d102be | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xcb70f5988d803271d6c9ff029d9a8eb219f9b18bc32f50685572e4cd7dc64afc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday?
Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stri... | no | 1 | when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | 60,187,312 | 60,187,312 |
6eba7c51245fead2e2f4506f657606d23f579392 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x9e9071636d176562592a98dfede865385ba0cff7864cfa01f0479ca6e9e26e1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 202... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,253,514 | 60,253,514 |
351be76956c17c3063611dec70c58df3761ebf43 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x57f90c89879a5b5e69fad9c2a261fa6f44f3653001aa3a02446aed92aaff21bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | yes | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,273,810 | 60,273,810 |
dcefb3ccec7ae0ff5b9ff9e49f7b7e16f7135027 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x126de2b82cc742b8a221039c99222ef5db1cc2ea73d55f93f4d1b03c9876884f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | 400m-hurdles-winner-w | Will Femke Bol (NED) win Gold in 400m Hurdles? | 60,357,460 | 60,357,460 |
d268d41bee90d93138822f68e115839042ae9f12 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xb9bd873d80852079df0df5133758a477f21566b623519e5d843a8800abf77a39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball? | 60,443,756 | 60,443,756 |
f2c2c52dc52cc8c17c6bd60b672727f82f1a99cc | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x1ba906e40b7700d097f8a63f545a0268a7c3050d6fd27cce14cb292c34c4a8e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | yes | 1 | mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | 60,443,774 | 60,443,774 |
3349a845569f296a63a9a3829bcd8bf1d7f51b0e | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x2ed1602eb5bf33927d77bdde59f90de9b4ee2752d6de714b3a4b8abbeed450bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | 49ers | 1 | nfl-sf-no-2024-08-18 | 49ers vs. Saints | 60,783,964 | 60,783,964 |
d246b791d01f08f982620af22d9ca48b72d17d22 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x06668c9a7d72117fb5985f94f0f80f1f311e00287c53aff1d50666f449da34eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | yes | 1 | brandon-aiyuk-next-team | Will Brandon Aiyuk stay on the 49ers? | 61,576,227 | 61,576,227 |
c7e5caacfdd8d5b90a575270fb608acbbbd97ac3 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xeff5a83f33ecdbb1adfafe531e19fb81ebdd54717c950cc5750b254af86a51f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | steelers-week-1-starter | Russell Wilson Week 1 starter for Steelers? | 61,589,113 | 61,589,113 |
573f30c990f3e4d0a7e7a5ecccda8fd2d47b1876 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xdbc21bd5109333eb7d6f35e6d5ac6e64b39844ceba0abcb790ea87269e6bb97e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | yes | 1 | steelers-week-1-starter | Justin Fields Week 1 starter for Steelers? | 61,589,118 | 61,589,118 |
f6894ee4444f2148dc028b141bab3061cd32636d | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xcd58a78bb23eea4a85a4237f575e1290e627cdbbe2d8c3d2c33cefb3645ba1c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Will the debate have 55-60 million viewers? | 61,719,916 | 61,719,916 |
4211b101f7f36c01e0fd686b62fd255dc46e1f80 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x11695e747474ffc1e00bc13984f72f786c9d5eb4b0184120b6a4bbc9191e37d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | yes | 1 | how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Will the debate have 60-65 million viewers? | 61,719,925 | 61,719,925 |
0efbf2a795e23009b8fb1f54380788439516354c | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x6cc501fa617e3a46ececf6e3990fe1afeeaa6bc897d3c7049c005fd1bdc42c2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | 61,991,420 | 61,991,420 |
a27244dc19f5ab41d39c7d9fe6dcd32bbbfe6e05 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x70357debf15a956d82d8b2022aaf5f868763d1d0716d2c6e5ce35712e49a3b0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | 61,991,420 | 61,991,420 |
92e77599d89bb9c1702422366c4fd452bcf69096 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xb20072387cd12bc73f3a6fd30fdd5aa1644c8f72f958803d90fc05c51db0ac49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | 61,991,420 | 61,991,420 |
9541389db7c1f21d4576b316bdc0ed26c52c2787 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xcbe2d0aac9664d45eb36a19f54225eeb579ecd62937b253a6bb096395a443c8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | falcons | 1 | nfl-atl-no-2024-09-29 | Falcons vs. Saints | 62,462,768 | 62,462,768 |
e8f7bea192bef1c89c6d04d8026cf92381bab527 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x15ada3349f828fac51edd93542b91743a660b6a523b236cb4bb9a829bab7b5b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | first-nfl-coach-fired | Will Zac Taylor be the first coach fired? | 62,798,966 | 62,798,966 |
4084b12a4e05a0d29b2ff9370736e7f7ce194de5 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x835f8d053046b9ef189c3216b75d46a2d2fb8a27a7e65d4ff09ef7c14699e73e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | world-series-champion-2024 | Will the New York Yankees win the World Series? | 63,739,427 | 63,739,427 |
86b1fe4d02ca0b695519400cb7b2de485c8176ca | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xd2b46998414172b3f9f157fff789dd7535270d59bde151fde70903c4b458d8f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | yes | 1 | next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Will Dennis Allen be the next coach fired? | 63,886,039 | 63,886,039 |
eaea146d94786b053a244aa8cedd7fc3f97660ec | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x7b66445d3d226adaa8128e002c3401c65771d8bfccc696620e03a30b02d21f9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Will another coach be the second coach fired? | 63,886,946 | 63,886,946 |
33ef6670e01023936f710b60ab2148b6b6d9dc9d | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xa2e35d9a0da148e829504a5c45e83893f388a421b5b095e5778c1fc357a4822c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Will Matt Eberflus be the next coach fired? | 63,895,268 | 63,895,268 |
db32a5cdad1d2c1fd455a2821d1f079ed67ce058 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xa3277afaf243e6ecd1fe58455b7f581a597f1a9b6ce537d48e675dd360f2350a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Will Doug Pederson be the next coach fired? | 63,895,268 | 63,895,268 |
2e7dcfd077cd3a393d1f3edf1c46a2004ebd400c | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xaba0987f65f6a9b6bc4b7188d1b4dbfe1baabe06cc6b877954d6e91e97459586 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Will Nick Sirianni be the next coach fired? | 63,895,268 | 63,895,268 |
b9349a0ea1e5ef66185363857d829aea260455df | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xb4f7df228b0b64d9196cace9604a7d23bcddb32a0fbd2ce9dc98a60d54b172dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Will Brian Daboll be the next coach fired? | 63,895,268 | 63,895,268 |
b470500f212612db1706234e7f5ca4b9c9512a0a | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xef9286a40b03228713fb63b0f71ce2434fbce9cdc919ac52abddb8263b28bce8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Will Mike McCarthy be the next coach fired? | 63,895,268 | 63,895,268 |
1105fa7fa1992ff7b6064588adee675e56247ad3 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x02bc0bbff054877a08cdc4f9ccf4e7606804bc05c27f5faccf26c6e1666a5558 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | 64,019,643 | 64,019,643 |
1b63e5b6b9c86839e853200a3da2c9e208c7f028 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x1c4a876957f0c70fb3a579d714c1c125bf14bcc0a6d47073115a1855cd4dd9ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | yes | 1 | new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 64,019,643 | 64,019,643 |
d67e0ee5ca5a5622aefe8250ef507cf518f4aeac | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x265366ede72d73e137b2b9095a6cdc9be6149290caa295738a95e3d881ad0865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | 64,196,502 | 64,196,502 |
ab8b6816642903fbfc804ae309d8ec5f05034e00 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xac7162f96876ea602d984de6f9800b8a4b8a45897e798a7630d9e004ae5b9a0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | no | 1 | arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? | 64,196,502 | 64,196,502 |
7c56ddf761de06cc8e114596e8b9f7bf9b9b4079 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xe7cded89c72cda0edc499df185618d38ad7252451d8c6592204ca4ae34441d18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic ... | cavaliers | 1 | nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | 64,541,794 | 64,541,794 |
3446886bdae6f5d11b9f78d250cc342de0cde632 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x5b00e0a13b86d356aec00d473653acd9e8ac71e3236bca8049545b57fe51d2c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tim Walz be the ... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary? | 64,622,735 | 64,622,735 |
7e9d467192b6d2efb81a73a23ef32bbcdec15e08 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x5f00c7fc8b8c2d2d1a9c5154b393e86081e45ae1f09ad499a6ff661d0f7de7ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Femke Bol (NED) w... | packers | 1 | nfl-sf-gb-2024-11-24 | 49ers vs. Packers | 64,717,310 | 64,717,310 |
9c6c91e249e751784238c92e6516c0bc7482daf2 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xf829ae773c406b1cd61d80cd9d59eea95428816cfcc138ba457fde08f0dbec27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Femke Bol (NED) win Gold in 400m Hurdles? | Event: 400m-hurdles-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Ev... | no | 1 | heisman-winner | Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trophy? | 65,501,441 | 65,501,441 |
66dff36317de41d1c3245cb5d6886c6f7f1ee40c | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x6fcb4eed9a4438e11ca904850281bdfe12048a72b8121069fe5f6ca4d65fef25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Femke Bol (NED) win Gold in 400m Hurdles? | Event: 400m-hurdles-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball?... | celtics | 1 | nba-bos-was-2024-12-15 | Celtics vs. Wizards | 65,538,561 | 65,538,561 |
64ffe560c6220f17fc74eca73a5f2c711bf779bf | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xe4aad8941041b37aeaac914baf9a0ef2d9acbdb021eda299b3f3112aeb299704 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 49ers vs. Saints | Event: nfl-sf-... | panthers | 1 | nhl-fla-min-2024-12-18 | Panthers vs. Wild | 65,682,261 | 65,682,261 |
1058a32f6b9ad2a10b830c72ccf1124512b616c8 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x09311de49a3518d3dee9b998f45965f209ee0c4701842e52d6df87d53dc5a2d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 49ers vs. Saints | Event: nfl-sf-no-2024-08-18 | Choice: 49ers | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brandon Aiyuk stay on the 49ers? | Event: brandon-aiyuk-next-te... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Will Southampton win on 2024-12-22? | 65,807,109 | 65,807,109 |
fe192b5f1a9b1f78de29ba4bbd6b14deb5d15aa9 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xc0421f6e80f8067bda0a9aa06954b025f24cfc8a6c98a966a98c35ea0e1ea2a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 49ers vs. Saints | Event: nfl-sf-no-2024-08-18 | Choice: 49ers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brandon Aiyuk stay on the 49ers? | Event: brandon-aiyuk-next-team | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Russell Wilson Week 1 starter for Steelers? | Event: steelers-week-1-starter | Choi... | yes | 1 | nfc-west-winner | Will the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West? | 65,811,937 | 65,811,937 |
94fdff54ee97422756abb48f63fda47d07f9cfbc | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xb5821cc3005774b8c90222357ce6fcd2bb75e36bdc598f6d4817198dd4f35eb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brandon Aiyuk stay on the 49ers? | Event: brandon-aiyuk-next-team | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Russell Wilson Week 1 starter for Steelers? | Event: steelers-week-1-starter | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Justin Fields Week 1 starter for Steelers? | Event: stee... | yes | 1 | nfc-east-winner | Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East? | 66,106,000 | 66,106,000 |
8a6df08d0059c7d6f2ac7dac95e110c18fae400a | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x81dc62c84e8f1d9f2cfd4ca576bf0d5ef27d39e0bcf7b12f115a9064ed0c15de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russell Wilson Week 1 starter for Steelers? | Event: steelers-week-1-starter | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Justin Fields Week 1 starter for Steelers? | Event: steelers-week-1-starter | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have 55-60 million viewers? | Event... | no | 1 | next-senate-majority-leader | Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 66,282,075 | 66,282,075 |
71df0bbd601df20348808e65441d8e52e582f14f | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x5a61a89ba142099ad5e17fe716753506b6af738eedac6d2e04a5b40e214aa67d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Justin Fields Week 1 starter for Steelers? | Event: steelers-week-1-starter | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the debate have 55-60 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have 60-65 million vie... | yes | 1 | nfc-north-winner-1 | Will the Lions win the NFC North? | 66,375,744 | 66,375,744 |
f02e4a583b354ce279efc4e4c77587b529f09d1b | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xa4d46dff9449596b43c02980e7b37f49c4c43214a2646f3d3a6240682bd19a05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the debate have 55-60 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the debate have 60-65 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest r... | senators | 1 | nhl-buf-ott-2025-01-09 | Sabres vs. Senators | 66,533,261 | 66,533,261 |
0a93ced942210a183a613917b334917e1d339d81 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xf2fb8a9b7ad6b716a29415cf8f1f513cb3149016fbb6be5e51e6a96e58c93a4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the debate have 60-65 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: F... | jets | 1 | nhl-col-wpg-2025-01-11 | Avalanche vs. Jets | 66,613,925 | 66,613,925 |
d4ad21ab99aed7fb01addabe75386421a2257fda | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x8b5eaf3fe4034b9407f2caa95871f7f42eed105173e4d88947187d880787147a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | bucks | 1 | nba-mil-nyk-2025-01-12 | Bucks vs. Knicks | 66,630,390 | 66,630,390 |
dfe8025f25619623875998e9598a04d4fcbade1f | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xd88461c24dde81a78484ae3cd9cfad03f30035443b5050ea9bd5bee478c8971a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | timberwolves | 1 | nba-min-was-2025-01-13 | Timberwolves vs. Wizards | 66,690,332 | 66,690,332 |
e18aaf2f3980a1bc568c62052e88484a535777f4 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xe80491f1675238b1e1bd3705520d1fe2539ecfacb42716f5558b10b6efa95d91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Falcons vs. Saints | Event: nfl-atl-no-2024-09-29 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Zac Taylor be the first coach fired? | E... | no | 0.015744 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,913,774 | 66,913,774 |
45e57cf0237b0924426ba7b610f40a67ff576335 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x55b88c9d91a6f20b8628e26f397f5bfb4e6b30c361784681f1ba16022aea02eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Falcons vs. Saints | Event: nfl-atl-no-2024-09-29 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zac Taylor be the first coach fired? | Event: first-nfl-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the World Series? | Event: world-series-champio... | pelicans | 1 | nba-nop-mem-2025-01-24 | Pelicans vs. Grizzlies | 67,608,546 | 67,608,546 |
a80c5e16b84aa62ee090e99d497be358fe9844eb | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xeb52004d81a0458910b98afbab213f85e488d0046a2241ab5e70c7b3aa2dee23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zac Taylor be the first coach fired? | Event: first-nfl-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dennis Allen be the next coach fired? | Eve... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,608,546 | 67,608,546 |
b9078e9b7ebfc516d416d8f54da99e9e1976339f | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x393380c861ab522223247af609627b9c77cf1828ba92d7ffd7ce2ad88bc422cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dennis Allen be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another coach be the second coach fir... | no | 1 | nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will another player win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | 67,640,522 | 67,640,522 |
6400015d0b4e6181ebd5e4c37feecfaea0851e58 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x422a4048c5715063294544c82c22be3088ce68ceda239378967ad6134d7639d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dennis Allen be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another coach be the second coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Matt Eberflus be the next coach fired? |... | no | 1 | nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | 67,640,522 | 67,640,522 |
c3725e66fab82454ae7c1d167be3c2c90d68c9d8 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x5e11d4db846d9bd010ba3c365fca4f13e564ba5917d0954535a308cc71d0c305 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another coach be the second coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Matt Eberflus be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Doug Pederson be the next coach fired? |... | no | 1 | nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | 67,640,522 | 67,640,522 |
e77b08df58497b9a17b74df25ea96b0f535b2133 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x7891950cdaf47b9c7de5041234364196500a49594a23b0ee51d5f61c89d6caf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Matt Eberflus be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Doug Pederson be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nick Sirianni be the next coach fired? | E... | no | 1 | nfl-coach-of-the-year | Will Dan Campbell win NFL Coach of the Year? | 67,640,522 | 67,640,522 |
45990c70a943b23ee140e69fd408c97090f32eb2 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x93a4126b7d5251b7a2ad59f20af04110c892abafb41a0dfa3ddff2118a4b1e39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Doug Pederson be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nick Sirianni be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brian Daboll be the next coach fired? | Ev... | yes | 1 | nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Myles Garrett win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | 67,640,522 | 67,640,522 |
0bcabf8caf341fbf136ccd33773451c2198d039b | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xac37a835a2d76685150f88fba259a6e493bacd4559213693d8a96a6dadd2115d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nick Sirianni be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brian Daboll be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike McCarthy be the next coach fired? | Ev... | yes | 1 | nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year | Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? | 67,640,522 | 67,640,522 |
d81cc22cb3dd58eb7e0d8d25df3eb816cfb73c08 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xc1a2771a4503f3f3ed45c788f0ee5ab2ea497407b3c69560e8d4dbd8ec2ac952 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brian Daboll be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike McCarthy be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential El... | no | 1 | nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year | Will Brian Thomas Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? | 67,640,522 | 67,640,522 |
0a8fc2a78d99ac72ef50eed12835fb4c4e290fc4 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xef6e7bc0d825d922943135eeaf9992dfa52e8ecc9d02ed1bf5feb9cf762d09d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mike McCarthy be the next coach fired? | Event: next-nfl-head-coach-fired | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat wi... | no | 1 | nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year | Will Malik Nabers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? | 67,640,522 | 67,640,522 |
c961ba1904661c194f9143fd85ff5d3dfae7c5d3 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x8665cd2f0254a96e3f558210a109705f4f18f00f3702954c166bcb3795d5fa2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | C... | no | 1 | nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Patrick Surtain II win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | 67,640,525 | 67,640,525 |
cd214c8be5782373a065295df3f1141021092831 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xc471c062418d2604f7a7d3587a8b93e1ba65d96a525ce66b8006e70c457fcc9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | kings | 1 | nba-sac-nop-2025-02-13 | Kings vs. Pelicans | 67,915,798 | 67,915,798 |
cb89502cb5c2b2840989a6bff23c58943b1bcc50 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x89b91e7775216b4ded12aa0b827406bafe857cf7edec5492dd485915648f816b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Pelicans vs. Caval... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-bre-2025-03-15 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-03-15? | 69,098,578 | 69,098,578 |
80064cf7c2f1b75f54c1a2fcdaf921313bd5f0b5 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x0a8336bccc044f6cfe77e60502bed0d99e2d2d12f4e884a81bed7de9a8a0207e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secre... | cavaliers | 1 | nba-cle-uta-2025-03-23 | Cavaliers vs. Jazz | 69,422,453 | 69,422,453 |
77710d8de6ec22862fc496fdc8631bcccb7fd5b3 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x5cbed2da6aafc562a3eac928fd621978713634ec1cc167cd74fd39499581181b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 49ers vs. Packers | Event: nfl... | yes | 1 | 2025-masters-winner | Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Masters? | 70,291,881 | 70,291,881 |
d0d56912e9727b9c964b3de1b2475f4b300a831f | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xb5cf0e118d7e0ec90cc89eee009a8c8b181c00cd9810caadecfc9079303cb9a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 49ers vs. Packers | Event: nfl-sf-gb-2024-11-24 | Choice: packers | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trop... | no | 1 | nba-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | 70,737,862 | 70,737,862 |
2e9b86f3fefc0afd10c7c8a706273e5530711473 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xc2d85d7588ad6be295a11d5d8dbe1ddab173249494d4fddd53968a64d867f1e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 49ers vs. Packers | Event: nfl-sf-gb-2024-11-24 | Choice: packers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trophy? | Event: heisman-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Wizards | Event: nba-bos-was-2024-12-15 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | nba-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Draymond Green win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | 70,737,862 | 70,737,862 |
2aa9bc90826783292ecdcc66d8a776359b50e0f1 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x244c75b2c6095b2e67699c10d0c6548d757d58a1ffea32ad6882c9a389803bd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trophy? | Event: heisman-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Celtics vs. Wizards | Event: nba-bos-was-2024-12-15 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Panthers vs. Wild | Event: nhl-fla-min-2024-12-18 | Choice: panthers | Confidence... | no | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,941,317 | 70,941,317 |
66f9c43d880a97fb29194431d6f0d167a1091800 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x87822b3d4ccba1835d698354b01c050b55f20c5f34b14908bff4ea5a6d58af4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Wizards | Event: nba-bos-was-2024-12-15 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Panthers vs. Wild | Event: nhl-fla-min-2024-12-18 | Choice: panthers | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,958,964 | 70,958,964 |
c975acec709769875bd379713e35b3662ad0b6d7 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0x4848adc6a61d44dddfac082ad2a588b740163cdab748f8a08dc7068d4109cdd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panthers vs. Wild | Event: nhl-fla-min-2024-12-18 | Choice: panthers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West? | Event: nfc-west-winner | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | nba-most-improved-player | Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | 70,965,280 | 70,965,280 |
558e48ee84f2ed38f2cea29afd25c9d1b9514090 | 0x1d3a805284bc8029cd6acd06d5a2b8b2b1807b63 | 0xa872f2b3215aa482b4558ad6a75261e038d691e3c6e298489ff30b469af5fb84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West? | Event: nfc-west-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East? | Event: nfc-east-... | no | 1 | nba-playoffs-thunder-vs-nuggets-series-outcome | Will the Nuggets beat the Thunder 4-3? | 71,693,923 | 71,693,923 |
a51c75c508205d9cd5aeac4d2399c293ca14eba4 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x420fcc123beef1d4cba887bd68a0c430b910683915daea32ecec0f8bd65fe2f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win?
Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | 52,887,886 | 52,887,886 |
89300e4bde29fa086918c4e99e2873132205be86 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x15a4bdba97f192528be64824720a0c7c70b5e6889e039b5ed11e399c89ecbfe8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win?
Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win
Predict the user's ... | yes | 1 | finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | 53,565,203 | 53,565,203 |
e561dce6988d30254c33d107229157c937906d9d | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x315804188956a5ece2ae6e7ebfcc6fdb3ef9e00c4dbdc8af41f705009c6baf07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 30-40% of the vote? | 54,168,439 | 54,168,439 |
4b15a28ad2ee69326a121bfb36a551674cad0e46 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x6a0bf25cacee15e507476f9bd79acd63a149a5553bd2acbd82972d30ef435366 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 10-20% of the vote? | 54,168,439 | 54,168,439 |
4f340c3528053a532db07980682b783d028088a2 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x8041ffebaa0dcd3e1d192c5aa6185cef14ba9963fff52d0e7f296153cf144539 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 20-30% of the vote? | 54,168,439 | 54,168,439 |
ac4f0a215187007f5d1638fd19419e59d6c19b57 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x9d8a92fee4fd3998176f1d5f90c072d614345c2082a40169d61abf05cb7a9b34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by less than 10% of the vote? | 54,168,439 | 54,168,439 |
a22ec1f45e8ddc3e383fa8a9b66a287549cbb86c | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x3c89bca9ceb8cc7011b5e908d73a8fd477e8adcb16089d7de5c8d3809a28a2cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | trumps-worst-state-on-super-tuesday | Will Virginia be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday? | 54,410,417 | 54,410,417 |
7b11be3e50be4614b959365810cf406cb115c014 | 0x1d70c7ade4ded2973c9ece1adb34810040f29418 | 0x33ad8fe940ad79febf41181020a5bbfee9ffb632b28f6412035798fb4fe00198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Pekka Haavisto win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | 54,420,603 | 54,420,603 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.