sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
df1e059e2dde383a2fcaae43b2b49bfe1721b53c | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0x5f5f0b66297b8f3f2c159d9d67bfce1be8cf7db6a3a131d5de1afb8745c571ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | sea-cre-juv-2025-11-01 | Will Juventus win on 2025-11-01? | 78,494,880 | 78,494,880 |
1d187fa76f970f7c76370ef95294a33ecdc854c5 | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0xf599867c2694e5c0a7f079442735318f3529686065da4154785d657c93525652 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-b04-2025-11-01 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-01? | 78,494,880 | 78,494,880 |
294d2ab41270f62b9b8bcb4485db8ecf190927fc | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0xfb6388cd03596cf8d1f2ea496ed8fcba4a626f82671ac6f5a50d9bbe060b16f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | fl1-ren-str-2025-11-02 | Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-11-02? | 78,505,818 | 78,505,818 |
f8fd03315c76934e96d2ba81993d7f9f089c23a5 | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0x43ed3589387b391632bf00222dddce9170f8827bbaa5d1ecfad0c3fe987a865c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | no | 1 | por-aro-mor-2025-11-02 | Will FC Arouca win on 2025-11-02? | 78,549,207 | 78,549,207 |
67c57843a0c7f7720ace58ce63320114a41ccbca | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0xde6fcefd9a8cad8fd99ed020b38d51e84d6523147fcbeaf59b1490bacfa98fb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | fl1-rcl-lor-2025-11-02 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-11-02? | 78,549,207 | 78,549,207 |
b9dfeace0ea1419a686d49773c3a7915592990e4 | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0xa4742b0ca4d353f98bbc06ac1f9716121011315915073dbcc455f106f5b87798 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | no | 1 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05? | 78,668,426 | 78,668,426 |
ee51f57c33549c97f10e9e158b0a8bcd7460a067 | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0xc31015e07bbd99c6657879be3d9d1540ad4a8dceb706135515ac6cea0c63af4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | ucl-new-ath-2025-11-05 | Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-11-05? | 78,668,426 | 78,668,426 |
d19e0d97a54d00689357600cf78fe4c28575d5fd | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0x4714297d095ab987f1ad968cbd1a2b42d9d20433cac64bed224c16626045ae02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | col-ray-lep-2025-11-06 | Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | 78,696,630 | 78,696,630 |
dbab25bc508589014009f0f3dea4829af389f305 | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0x4f17343b1e1d8f56a60bc1d6e20228893902e6271b8a7df81e5a364be4e892c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | uel-rbs1-goa1-2025-11-06 | Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-11-06? | 78,696,630 | 78,696,630 |
7bfbf16a3782daad3acaf3310c8b6aee3ec245eb | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0xaa578a1f4373fb3d9f16a7e4d234aa74d469ac980ed29925524245891ed3670e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | col-cry-az-2025-11-06 | Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-11-06? | 78,696,630 | 78,696,630 |
c7a6324e924a45b3e2805d2eea21e808d01c5166 | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0xafbef5a84d713a2aa81f87699a548be786cc2616c0073158ef99045cd1e66839 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | lal-bil-ovi-2025-11-09 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-09? | 78,806,959 | 78,806,959 |
5043db80ef6e74b3f77c5b311d9a57d77c6a628b | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0xbef54a999d7cb561c901ba161700289b90be87b7915f91473e4a6d1f502a0e1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | den-ran-mid-2025-11-09 | Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-09? | 78,806,959 | 78,806,959 |
784d2d2c9cd4eefb186530b2761d1a6faa42635e | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0x3050563c5b3a1996bde67a19e18faffa77323d43dc0625989ac4297b9e4b1406 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | uel-ogc1-scf1-2025-11-06 | Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-06? | 78,810,285 | 78,810,285 |
073be9c4c9baae65b9362309cd7f9e6c9177932c | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0x8d4313a38fc17df1cebed4e810580fa142972f3a51c94e8f909a58c7ebac802e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | uel-utr1-por1-2025-11-06 | Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-06? | 78,810,285 | 78,810,285 |
00842efce30ea30866230f198d317314bec29ed1 | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0x0832b6a0dd596ed27885a57c5de841ff767aed6e52a245a3f4d8b68265d8eeee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | nor-bry-bra-2025-11-02 | Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-02? | 78,810,288 | 78,810,288 |
2ebbddd4c336944beb1020d4f7c5f0741fe5f8a9 | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0x1552900f110163fca34c5e6f062b50f84519a199f09e6609e6b65f87f3eac7c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | nor-vif-bog-2025-11-01 | Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-11-01? | 78,810,288 | 78,810,288 |
b146f89fdc0e03465da0179582174dc85c2f5341 | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0x1f8679cc8b26259fc69152737889d18b7a8799d0c45982928c2c8d08ce75d3a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | no | 1 | uel-crv1-lil2-2025-11-06 | Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2025-11-06? | 78,810,288 | 78,810,288 |
738a66275ee07a840c71eccf4447e2946ae98d84 | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0x9f6fb5b39faab6dd1aaa2f670712995bc63b384ed6037b2b70346df9deb68849 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | col-aek-abe-2025-11-06 | Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2025-11-06? | 78,810,288 | 78,810,288 |
cb14bce04632cc191281fc2ab400cb00fe603d5c | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0xe82500d18d809fa111dd1fc17a1129524b783e9a884ce107d4fba3f483b22a27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27... | yes | 1 | sea-nap-com-2025-11-01 | Will Napoli win on 2025-11-01? | 78,810,288 | 78,810,288 |
83cadb4df4e5db1795acfcf5bd742bb9fd5e48c7 | 0x1dc6e69220fd0f0cfb2aeae1b764d3d75ee60f52 | 0xeec5753bde5137d8a76b75e973b8e3ceb80d3e0125fb4357dff9063d3c7f105f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-sas-rom-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-27? | Event: por-mor-por-2025-10-27 | Ch... | no | 1 | fl1-str-lil-2025-11-09 | Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-09? | 78,810,290 | 78,810,290 |
df0d099b4c41060f192dcf3e123a5ad5ae8e887c | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x365b4805cdd891562f5257879d694c2e743c6aefa0c0bfb71a499533bf0e4b43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12?
Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | 68,975,661 | 68,975,661 |
f65e8165cd71510cdd83cbbe4012ce311471e8ad | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xa90f816567e77cda9f983d43e7cc71e0455c890f7f9d82b1e71bdf65badfddec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?
Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON... | yes | 1 | ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | 68,975,661 | 68,975,661 |
32d1f783f8df392347b71c97016551f13e9f85f4 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x5f6992615e91be88fb334f1bf4f3a85be08f1adf4b773f2c5cb9174c794d145e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-... | yes | 1 | ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | 68,979,891 | 68,979,891 |
66754093e1de71e5b10afd34f6a93c3883ec0081 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xeeae3ae45fbdad96a16e1f05ae799afb4ca82bfa72d24afbfa555037e0c8c593 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Will Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | 68,979,891 | 68,979,891 |
d0ebe515acb50443e4f47f0d78062b7cb0d6b84b | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x68ef589cde76bca7ace88f9e1048f912e9e1cf0c0e89d89637786ad19d1f45ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | dodgers | 1 | mlb-nym-lad-2025-06-03 | Mets vs. Dodgers | 72,344,716 | 72,344,716 |
c989e8d58ec48482fe5c1d4521245c5381b08f06 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xd1b383f18508856e8fbfc81ebce848828d94f0b190dc793350dfa5226515ad5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | 2025-terra-wortmann-open-winner | Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Terra Wortmann Open? | 73,091,127 | 73,091,127 |
31457255a61a66538fe70a5ed9d12035f81b993d | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xde3ac88d04323c002d642c1768327eebe8c6a5ca5ccf80cf921a08f077fc3a1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | 73,268,364 | 73,268,364 |
1e8fbe04efba1cbd9b947bec7451f68b3cae6b28 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x667d6aad68b1326d82002378b5599bde8aca631a011f9faeb16a72875587a30a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-real-madrid | Will RB Salzburg vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | 73,279,881 | 73,279,881 |
e81def393a33ced63491a1d61749156914cf6fd8 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xccea5355e4461d2097feb33e593b576c8a61fa3d2c7f4264c6d0a3a290632aef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-real-madrid | Will Real Madrid beat RB Salzburg? | 73,279,881 | 73,279,881 |
ec33455e7c9f85b97b981dced6a77f3828312409 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x11793f1420d4a46db97c2834b7ad2567426044c2f9ba38abe1c0f371a2e0579a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Will Al Hilal beat Fluminense in regulation time? | 73,589,744 | 73,589,744 |
6e4b8d539b87f50e076a191f036fdba3a9467ffe | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x8b687ef3cd727786eeb3567a5ea7ed3cf797f99b5f0c7d324af3bd8404ddaee6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | real-madrid-vs-dortmund-regulation-time | Will Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund in regulation time? | 73,630,805 | 73,630,805 |
917f27ce5dc70056286d62e33c471464863a77a0 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x9e6c7dccfd9c48392c7442f4037991fba955ed610ecab90140a7b03ac51cc86b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Will Real Madrid beat PSG in regulation time? | 73,794,926 | 73,794,926 |
9cbba682f37cfede085fafd5f2428f5d59bee25d | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x37fcf828abb63fd986423db5829bd2d79b4c1b6c2380839d5ae0b067c8542553 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Will Liverpool vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | 75,320,542 | 75,320,542 |
8e23b5737c04560b4d9f5f1490b543c511454075 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x7a3c4c2c93c6e1ebdaa5f1ec57c2a8fd299b61861443e34eaf882267c48187f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-15? | 75,320,542 | 75,320,542 |
ba5d2f0fbec705412b676a48976381233f276d8f | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xa0cd8d7f6c207acee801918c71532901ca3d98f884f71d03c9f5c488b7a2b37e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 0.964704 | dota-2-the-international-2025 | Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | 76,472,609 | 76,479,793 |
b3f652f450bd510de56518c89eefae8af122eb91 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x7a269da637483c1a8bd65816604de87592db82baa7934e63d6917c1b168764af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | dota-2-the-international-2025 | Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? | 76,479,793 | 76,479,793 |
5dbf174a5ebe07a70f7f292ee22eb7dbd903e752 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xf7024c6dabba3863f8cff51725a6f479bf0914c97d3ed9997a7dc5b733436087 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | ucl-psv-gil-2025-09-16 | Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-09-16? | 76,536,144 | 76,536,144 |
b9921094edf666e9f22e29aa4e484254a5b057e9 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xd28231a95350f4bf772edd72aa1843a327e37c441c3bcc795eecb2873739f3ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Will Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | 76,580,144 | 76,580,144 |
7d30cd8d602194ebaa45a417cf128f032ab48bba | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x4c2790f60b197915980df4d946b03c3136f897b628b88411ed15455790e58f86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | ucl-ben-kar-2025-09-16 | Will Qarabag win on 2025-09-16? | 76,616,809 | 76,616,809 |
8d7b8edcd12d7697cb2ec784f789adee2bad7aaf | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x8c5927af2b98879999712a217d1ff65d34c13ebadcb619007e4852ea76a7845c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | 76,616,809 | 76,616,809 |
94140aeb4636902352483182c95f22d8aa94b4b7 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x23ba6893bf11ac39eac06d3e373f9656d46193c07d52f8fabcd5ed3651231289 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | fl1-olm-psg-2025-09-22 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-22? | 76,782,656 | 76,782,656 |
7c6d40439c3bc1b702e44fb289834c52b26d72dc | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x646c22ca080f3c3b4b5cb61c7675cc0067e56bb85438bf35198e404ab6aad90c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | arg-bel-new-2025-09-22 | Will CA Belgrano vs. CA Newell's Old Boys end in a draw? | 76,790,750 | 76,790,750 |
2dc6e92b686dfc422ceee3ecca48200c80954c6a | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xad1f545b7b54aeb4a799a365f73816773ab68d37073a75b75d2f7c633fb49686 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | arg-est-def-2025-09-22 | Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw? | 76,790,750 | 76,790,750 |
823a91a3dcd1f2447a8de4fd26eaafc3cfdc038e | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x037f2042969c8d941d12f92d3532b3c649b685fc4b6185cdc8f71a22c33ed283 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | lal-bil-gir-2025-09-23 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-23? | 76,820,353 | 76,820,353 |
997b4df6d2cbcf0ab7f91066afca41437f071055 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x1134a1abe122b06eb1f37894a5b95cdb34f2bf812261e56b6182c05af7c7978c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | lal-bil-gir-2025-09-23 | Will Athletic Club vs. Girona end in a draw? | 76,822,604 | 76,822,604 |
af4259c80dfc27501d7af4c77a349896e870aada | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x3b9a5f8161902ec8356c313544dd6ad563ed3acebe2c00e73dea99ed5444b4c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | arg-bel-new-2025-09-22 | Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-09-22? | 76,822,604 | 76,822,604 |
655c76b7a18ca763a6e6db44be527a3f061ebcdf | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xd2495da5b79b2c7fd475ce1749e98f4b8eb301d71d978429bbb0c39cb7ab120c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | lal-esp-val-2025-09-23 | Will Espanyol vs. Valencia end in a draw? | 76,822,604 | 76,822,604 |
d47226a1086f2a1f6433065ee6298be5e04b3106 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x682d63b04e8ae59c927bb37352420ee497018a2f7a02f3a501210a3cb342472f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | lal-sev-vil-2025-09-23 | Will Sevilla vs. Villarreal end in a draw? | 76,823,642 | 76,823,642 |
4c969b4c0ebedb72c5b826668549a24f0fce1ca6 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x4e04063e3c8fab82ca6961ad3e71f3b2c393fd895bf79f644f17afbe37d525a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | yes | 0.000027 | lal-sev-vil-2025-09-23 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-23? | 76,823,642 | 76,894,848 |
4a739a629cfffc530e0f90d18d234b9b9cf3df54 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xea83b296e885289ac5a2491a3bbf57d0eef0245515a0d692f29b554bff2dde94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | no | 1 | lal-lev-rea-2025-09-23 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23? | 76,894,848 | 76,894,848 |
a878afb4d43f389ebbb270eab9b748724b87998c | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x4b338f6fc3ed17a2321c6ba29efd44d1e5b55951e58b2519b085208248aba4e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ... | yes | 0.000132 | uel-lil-brn-2025-09-25 | Will Lille win on 2025-09-25? | 76,900,198 | 76,934,207 |
d776e71e82bbe2d15da6d7f95867e5e873e48b23 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x7eb8a53fcfff7c0b0d925e00f6f849452144a1b32b2f26029ecda502cfe74eb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?... | no | 1 | uel-rbs-por-2025-09-25 | Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-25? | 76,934,207 | 76,934,207 |
dcf415949270ad7a63b187c86b3622ba75658d24 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x3770153576430dc3d9c8b33226d097b9e7920a9e86a10c8072b23eafb290dd14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Mets vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-nym-lad-2025-06-0... | no | 1 | lal-gir-esp-2025-09-26 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-26? | 76,946,126 | 76,946,126 |
f0ea502cc2101bc49da450fc0ba7c1dfb624e70b | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x770516bfd1c950a385817d7d92e10aebff454d00f2d8f91ef0c5ccf156c882d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mets vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-nym-lad-2025-06-03 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Terra Wortmann Open? | Event: 20... | ctbc flying oyster | 1 | lol-t1-cfo-2025-10-16 | LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) | 77,754,802 | 77,754,802 |
5e7a25f1390ed7ea31fe0fd907716f8f1291854e | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x18f9f564494fd7a22d224ae40957155495bbe7807037deeadb34c55465e14d61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mets vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-nym-lad-2025-06-03 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Terra Wortmann Open? | Event: 2025-terra-wortmann-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | Event: fifa-club... | 100 thieves | 1 | lol-tes-100-2025-10-16 | LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1) | 77,809,100 | 77,809,100 |
4a5bc6db3c48dee4967dd35fbb99b13186b36c78 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xfb604d3a9e0be40c1e786eb96b5ae78357b75c9fe3e32c35f6a4c9d44f249fd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Terra Wortmann Open? | Event: 2025-terra-wortmann-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will RB Salzbu... | no | 1 | uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | 77,809,100 | 77,809,100 |
a5aee152387bc755d39d281f7ac4d172761d7f83 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x9959136c2c127bd2a6b27c59536433650b2e6c09d3ef73c5a3dd99e0f1bd196d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Salzburg vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will R... | no | 1 | epl-mac-eve-2025-10-18 | Will Manchester City vs. Everton end in a draw? | 77,858,943 | 77,858,943 |
6787f9402196478d4d17c1955b7f3d3949be3c02 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x0be5d719f00b9034e704961ba8134c38a4dcf05afa5c35951e42dce7db08bed9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RB Salzburg vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat RB Salzburg? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-real-madrid | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Al H... | no | 1 | epl-ful-ars-2025-10-18 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18? | 77,868,985 | 77,868,985 |
2a36a342a77207e9d6bc380f64c3088b4d531410 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x820eacd60c5c61a4b45c963b9b23883a232e06a2a6106444a7c1dc9864f2b319 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat RB Salzburg? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-real-madrid | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Al Hilal beat Fluminense in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid... | no | 1 | lal-ala-val-2025-10-20 | Will Alaves win on 2025-10-20? | 77,950,103 | 77,950,103 |
8915890cfc3a42da2d3c64aa256f25e67c680985 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x4b4caf76961295eb5da7926b2e853d8f14177a47e0a075547d7a02798f4abfba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Hilal beat Fluminense in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund in regulation time? | Event: real-madrid-vs-dortmund-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Will Páfos FC win on 2025-10-21? | 77,990,121 | 77,990,121 |
680be04fcd3b9e5ddf82a15f7469f98e1e777cee | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xffa740e3ea988ac69dcbffd101bd79e3ffaebb84b10442b40a7d42db6ad1220c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund in regulation time? | Event: real-madrid-vs-dortmund-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat PSG in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will L... | no | 1 | ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | 78,022,531 | 78,022,531 |
b6280775397c5cf65fcc05c45e2a43892ae3bb58 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x05f98fe943442a06f41c6d8bfab64772d15cd1e1f9476e1d380bacbb43b6b079 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat PSG in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-15? ... | yes | 0.3949 | ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | 78,038,862 | 78,168,277 |
431e054c0349301207facb590ffee0b0b44a8d5f | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x8f01a558f32d1f48c94045e1f280d74e24e00c82163028b41ca23d42f04d94ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament?... | no | 0.651088 | ucl-rma-juv-2025-10-22 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22? | 78,038,862 | 78,168,277 |
1603fd3ebb97dda4a8ea9d04bffb177d7aef9775 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0xb1b99361e5a3691a38f9fdf5c5744cb474b06b93cab2a473543970ff69080efa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9647043559045732
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win Th... | no | 1 | uel-rom1-plz1-2025-10-23 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-23? | 78,080,475 | 78,080,475 |
e1fda5bb754edec2caabb31f4287ed81e7abb40b | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x46b458c054ae8f32ca5e736c515bbfc1aec93a925169e6fa8e2dbe2d43b8b50a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9647043559045732
2. Question: Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | bilibili gaming | 1 | lol-blg-vks-2025-10-24 | LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) | 78,103,047 | 78,103,047 |
a37b8713f90c305c0338c8975996de316bab84a0 | 0x1dc8aaad437a3e23d90dd72afa90383934244c1d | 0x2c786f3a82f79980c7621fa2e6b463198edb080d3ac6360ce069395d110ece34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-psv-gil-2025-09-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid end ... | no | 1 | sea-mil-pis-2025-10-24 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24? | 78,122,872 | 78,122,872 |
cbb26dd6d0df47e3603296775e970597b9c5e9c1 | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0x8ca157fe6cc8ad10903c6ff23a8d6ff2fd4774251e1df9d276c1984c0b07e19e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December?
Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | 65,120,091 | 65,120,091 |
3dd70205b5c6e1113ee0da0c420bf31ab2e1ed0b | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0x1a5dbff18745feb9efda07f903126e59c957ca313bf44c819846136609fc6247 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November?
Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output ... | yes | 1 | hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | 65,120,103 | 65,120,103 |
0338f46fe875a4f61976beaa6ed3ca773fc28337 | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0x694c9e6de6d95cfa02192b2ab776512381c4c835a8cda1a5059720e62b9445b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Hyperliquid not laun... | no | 1 | hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in 2024? | 65,120,115 | 65,120,115 |
7f80c89d8bc12c3f5355580e07b835294868c45b | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0x90d789157d980de1ca67489122f9d7892a83da4d5185ee16222aff1204914596 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in... | no | 1 | f1-2024-season-winner | Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season? | 65,327,830 | 65,327,830 |
b820035b6de1ed86ea1ebb48858de93800de32d2 | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0xc5bb8aabf50ca7230c63be0a900fe0ac4018f36ab6dd0aeebd9e59beaf08c415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in... | yes | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,518,637 | 67,518,637 |
bbbd537b64d51c6004a7d23a29250ca686044b73 | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0x65cb31d3503f6a4e844794c88d1d3be2d460424da6b5cf29ebf58ba159c9446c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in... | no | 1 | nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Danielle Hunter win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | 67,518,647 | 67,518,647 |
6b1ff26a457521e693ccdde4ac6bd81572f1fc77 | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0x3ee51f366ffd0b193f71b3707f1306e977f9f1eb80cebb450dda8961e2aaeb9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in... | no | 1 | pvp-trading-competition-winner | Will SHOKU win the PvP trading competition? | 68,701,788 | 68,701,788 |
76f4f7f08e4ebab887a7c513d63190e2d111283f | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0x93a4126b7d5251b7a2ad59f20af04110c892abafb41a0dfa3ddff2118a4b1e39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in... | no | 1 | nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Myles Garrett win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? | 68,701,812 | 68,701,812 |
7d77e5190e2f1ed43e00167ad5796f7ceeac113b | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0x5aa4e1489f09f28b707beab8cb179d8912b81dd9a3bf288e3711af2aee1e6b44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in... | no | 1 | serie-a-winner | Will Torino win the Serie A? | 69,944,234 | 69,944,234 |
a7cba9382ed5394b43ddbd864e33ca69a41cf663 | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0xfaaacb26f763f956b64813ecbeab3ba2701eaaccb0354563c1d8f012de95ab98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | 71,041,325 | 71,041,325 |
b4b6f5064b88f4884aac2018b94dd940ca5f1e75 | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0xdfafea05c48721f477c0adfa5b5e6cd38387f8425b96f2f53e97d48e7ceedd0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in... | no | 1 | serie-a-winner | Will AC Milan win the Serie A? | 71,041,334 | 71,041,334 |
791477005e2fbd1b6f6cace26efde6e7093f2dd5 | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0xa2256547b6e7e215829a5d4bd2637cb17b882c8b0cebe890582ac8becee386c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in... | no | 1 | serie-a-winner | Will Fiorentina win the Serie A? | 71,041,341 | 71,041,341 |
560cc361ff65cd1941701dbcaf1697103cecfbe7 | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0xc7e5b8959e654724d463a975d17056ec76f244c1a70c8c050edad7b61a409f57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in... | no | 1 | nba-assists-leader | Will Tyus Jones lead the NBA in Assists? | 71,041,355 | 71,041,355 |
b9fff2521c676553cec611542384dea29d3d976e | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0xc641543d64739b42a7666ee3b63b3993e7f3a09aa100632e3669247d3b3242a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in... | no | 1 | nba-rebounds-leader | Will Jusuf Nurkic lead the NBA in Rebounds? | 71,041,366 | 71,041,366 |
8a9989a351ac1f9a57c51f1f41e8371b69e5fa91 | 0x1e02c182f39873a7a9e9297fdd59d1d93efc9e92 | 0xbc67af13da50b8d9282d5f332b8835f8ab039c8f584a78695fddf1450a1c8679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in... | no | 1 | stanley-cup-winner | Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | 71,041,378 | 71,041,378 |
9f6a3a7ef17d53c81f4ca51004ff3800617f4398 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xb36c1702ef24b78ad74216fdd24df34b6319fece298b5994f0a3c77a32f0e96b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?
Event: esports-world-cup-cs2
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | esports-world-cup-cs2 | Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | 75,460,195 | 75,460,195 |
f7239cff712204d30e47b9be8574511b0ee849f6 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xa9932072b5d367ead382c39c09bd004ca139e9ec14cd38088bcd205ad7eefd97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET?
Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et
Predict the user's choice a... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | 75,460,217 | 75,460,217 |
f15252feaf4011c111c32f47dab1d8b1bbccdd68 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xc974da97c1714a1fe4648533d91b441251cf7547c71349d2b4ee3059ec3599fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or below on August 20? | 75,460,217 | 75,460,217 |
a7ea3f42c64990fa061bbc8a3446f239917f84d5 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xd85f83e9d0958fb89ddfd28d39797ef812e059cc9862bc5df198453aa2bd96e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | esports-world-cup-cs2 | Will Liquid win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | 75,460,217 | 75,460,217 |
ac09aa465329ec4bb3ae8e062748e3a0e8b57a4b | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xa2f6241bfe22bbc2b14137536e35a7f662192250dc79bab2f808b8efbb5eb500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on August 23? | 75,591,043 | 75,591,043 |
37441c6f8bbe4e4aeaf9329e5a9181b48ccb2a48 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x2f92a689287831af0349ac6618f983e5f8698e94b81c509bf26fb71ecff7b2ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-24 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on August 24? | 75,606,724 | 75,606,724 |
4d5001305e1dc9321ffb0b999026448d6465596e | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x5d415f5fa1a8ef202311d94cb7d5f58fc84fc7a2635d040cd9f3ed99e86d7b3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | esports-world-cup-cs2 | Will another team win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | 75,606,724 | 75,606,724 |
f6965fe0f466b75aaa97d8367a3895045e9b2008 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x24f8f43e4c55e6e1f36f04ba2a3b891c056fda2ccdda37874e1e7e0c18f62ed3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-27 | Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or below on August 27? | 75,729,436 | 75,729,436 |
561cfde164a408014f55b1718911ed3ae2523dd3 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xc5932146c3b9ba72709d204ebd569f4d01d0c1a9ed6f95edf8932b3622029938 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-august-28-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4900 on August 28 at 4PM ET? | 75,777,249 | 75,777,249 |
15bea1767cd983015e6d9023dfd9956016edcbb6 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x4baa132e85d98600106908485d8191473a723b7bc03ee351dfb2330aab9a7c24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be 75°F or higher on August 28? | 75,792,294 | 75,792,294 |
9c9996645c27aab557ac7210c85d48b68636d2fb | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x5a878d809506e6d8ae58c63be96c1adc4fad4c7a25ec0d7f07787343032d9a5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on August 28? | 75,792,294 | 75,792,294 |
1d465e252043deb7abbdd311d08c408e281f86c1 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xf037769d24e42e3edb82a67af235d07980a9e9e05a03470d7ea36172556619de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Will ECSTATIC win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | 75,811,237 | 75,811,237 |
8f5bb0e287ca1e6f7422edd90de7dc81b174c3b3 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x2c2067876d51ae66dc3916a029d0e40e77319acfe7ab4fa9562528bf31f558f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Will Imperial win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | 75,849,387 | 75,849,387 |
3b297fa2907eb395f4e86f24c13c55ec791e2949 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x4fb909813f4cc7a29a618207e51491d2c6cffac238308fc866525b6259f7f614 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or below on August 30? | 75,849,387 | 75,849,387 |
663bcbc7e3c02af7f2beff31b77e6133e2560d4a | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x0a54df4aca3791bfdbf1d36eed9e15c90cff136d3a128960d40fff2a29ddcdd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 100–114 times August 29–September 5? | 75,872,712 | 75,872,712 |
559775d1d1b042d99649cbdd7046f43a801c4285 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x6cff4b4bf07753a764b40f834fe24599816d7df28b451ceebef816b3c4e2a377 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-30-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on August 30 at 4PM ET? | 75,872,712 | 75,872,712 |
1df8852596d1409e2da205adb1fa5306ea766a55 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x16fd7f2c9834518170feae746bd38ae571de49bd41123f124787d3edfd780dcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Will FlyQuest win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | 75,897,926 | 75,897,926 |
0e3b82746c93ddf97310b7a39eba27626260a21e | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x960b5c8c4c0672d00d22f1ee84d4585308c261e5ee841638f33259646a9fa922 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-september-3-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4000 on September 3 at 4PM ET? | 76,071,318 | 76,071,318 |
0a8d78e26a8ce6b05f5f5445ef96c9022527f3cf | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x1b61de254039d5ea2eb4a886ba4a2dfdbba78ff94fe5ed036ee6bfec8f690768 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-september-6-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4600 on September 6 at 4PM ET? | 76,142,441 | 76,142,441 |
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