sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85201a895f5831c1616a2a3ac5745eed6d4efc6c | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xa3350cd8ab7fef7b047d7937da1e006b2dae2354805d34cfcbae88ed798d1841 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "you guys" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will threadguy interview Trump before October? | Event: will-threadguy-interview-trump-before-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-30 | Will Trump lead on August 30? | 61,235,184 | 61,235,184 |
0d94ef6e35bee3efee736777b514b597cd738e9e | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x58f997aea3c98baffd11652ca3d2d8591772118f362c4213cff569af1b17b756 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will threadguy interview Trump before October? | Event: will-threadguy-interview-trump-before-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "J.D." or "Vance" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3.... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Will Trump say "fired" 3 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | 61,507,983 | 61,507,983 |
cf8edd70fd455be472253f54cc31a0b088dca2d7 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1b60540a300621c8828530ee1f0473bc645c99ea7937c28561d083aad6990b6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "J.D." or "Vance" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Oakland" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Will Trump say "alien" 5 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | 61,507,983 | 61,562,732 |
4fa1eeb98caa35c34b343c682944e77e1d7c7936 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x30f574c0a07faaae89962301272998c21845ed1c5e9bd3d99603f54c5ab2b736 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Oakland" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "weird "or "weirdo" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at Wisconsin rally? | 61,507,983 | 61,562,732 |
6fcf0ef8f3caf9fdc25ece6d3b70d0aae2e3323b | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x70d07dd4f3fa1278198647220db62cc33e1380a7d1edfdf92580d6e188325343 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "weird "or "weirdo" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Will Trump say "green new scam" at Wisconsin rally? | 61,507,983 | 61,562,732 |
274eeb534d6283e52b9dd8051f7c7c968b339837 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xad1e134e8d9ad498324b7719c000a63ef63a2459431af1ccc5872a00a656d590 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "alien" 5 or more times during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wiscon... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Will Trump say "tampon" at Wisconsin rally? | 61,507,983 | 61,562,732 |
44c7b447047fd07df775b10a2492648841298b36 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xd33986421886e9abb01f035a00a7a6a79538d3c705d0eec7048070c3d1c79e0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "alien" 5 or more times during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-int... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | 61,507,983 | 61,562,732 |
39109d52699cc8743635ca251d97dbd6bea68502 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x8fb9c7fbfaad9a2276f1fa0f6a24d771be94028555c21ce1ee2c270a99126cc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "NAFTA" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Cho... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Will Trump say "China" 5 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | 61,507,983 | 61,562,733 |
a7c2892feda1f6b0d5b12b1893378a9f143a177b | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x602b126c28fe3fd14e1791091c831b2c2d8b90185c6980766a8aaeb3e2a7cbb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "NAFTA" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Beyonce" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" at debate? | 61,507,983 | 61,680,680 |
92b8068b96d659a76d9eaf987c59e05a1ca612e1 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xc3b645b3aad448fb016b0134b757b1a7afe766e652dc166563fd255babafe19f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Beyonce" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "stolen valor" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "McDonald's" at debate? | 61,507,983 | 61,682,610 |
8fe4cd4bf2ae2c404dadd0c925750c8126452884 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xe6008988f37a504c76aeea5490c3294fcb833bb79029f7e8c778f4a268a5e883 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "stolen valor" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "okay good" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "I'm speaking" at debate? | 61,507,983 | 61,682,610 |
8436a2df7a223f28e707cde0e535b4920f7be6ec | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xa1fb9d05e4e71fbcba3313593399b72106dbf3ed262cb8c88566c422b5011770 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "okay good" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "fake news" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | ... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Will Trump say "drill baby drill" at Wisconsin rally? | 61,507,984 | 61,562,732 |
e30f5480fd3b28d50bf7b534f2c452496db9da0e | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x82215e7f9b448e54624b0c51ed72632c94c7470d41abb74b609ddd829d1f0c9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "fake news" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choic... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | 61,507,984 | 61,562,733 |
df8d7cfd248f4cfcff618637a7c875312cd30575 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x8e4b42c1446e4420815f2247f5de3422d94a397aea93951e13f3899a3ce7e60d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "border" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "unrealized" at debate? | 61,507,984 | 61,671,703 |
c2deda3d9e5b47069d16eb6046ebed6c6abbf5b5 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x277787c5d70ce3e7bd6b7f5d071f5f1965613f2039a15a37f02a2cad3e25d1ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "border" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "poison" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "not going back" at debate? | 61,507,984 | 61,680,680 |
ea68dde3bc66e898bc27eacebfbe7f75e9f38b60 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x8277de2c803e4c09ab475b386158d268eea215a96791882557b7bb6d7713aa14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "poison" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "fake news" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "wall" at debate? | 61,507,984 | 61,682,610 |
c6a5311e46480eda767e2316555a5b4c07c656c3 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x98093293654d442fbcc5e40017ca243e1d67c9f2847d700d9eb01ba70ed43d58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "fake news" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "inflation" at debate? | 61,507,984 | 61,682,611 |
02e423dba92b9f5e22a8d7993a7aec1688950dc4 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x0dc14bbc7421f4f8eda7b1bc29a3bb4a8bfe68dcacb5c3dd4589d7941f34315a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "World War 3" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "abortion" at debate? | 61,606,768 | 61,670,297 |
0de7df80b775cbdb0397153703884d29ed1ca208 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x0bba479701eeb91f1e47fd80d4e3451e1f282a3f6d86a9a11f9382319335cc79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "World War 3" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "MAGA" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "Project 2025" at debate? | 61,606,768 | 61,670,298 |
ca139404e87cf517660ac7babc5d11a0f51b665d | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x45302465b00778c7d18ee9e2d4fa4a2e63277fb0e9c73d85422dcc8e62a894cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "MAGA" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "DEI" or "Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview |... | yes | 0.000005 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "border" 5 or more times at debate? | 61,606,768 | 61,675,350 |
c4886157c2b739d4a1de0d4cc43363303c4eddc3 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x46897b7b7b01901e1e29ea4314ecb6a93f87fdcd428d4fd3953471c4730fdf99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "DEI" or "Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "drill baby drill" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisco... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "convicted felon" at debate? | 61,606,768 | 61,675,350 |
a178a6605cc6682541cc9fba608c723bd215e5b1 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1bdb0d0f9ede03a1ddbb36ac2456f4cf7b87d62ab9b22c09e99840c73c79a2e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "drill baby drill" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "marxist" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Con... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "Artificial Intelligence" at debate? | 61,606,768 | 61,680,248 |
c4070e1f03b898d55df5bb93da50f3f99641f5b5 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x8b7cd14a10fe8de0077b9f12da19c5d4fb89c91cf4cfda8aaa6e8df1924616a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "marxist" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "border" 10 or more times during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "JD" or "Vance" at debate? | 61,606,768 | 61,680,248 |
cf2238b64ff12c7f18845aa152722c8d3274f9c9 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1de9e375f9324c12856867be8442dfa6ce4d7fcea0ed6d2a3e9316af31a9ed00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "border" 10 or more times during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Ch... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "liar" at debate? | 61,606,768 | 61,682,610 |
67fb4c5ec444f6db246b078cbc7459b704c39d0a | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x900bf6074eab0bc960209b6b6a9fba0d27ca717596fed243c51edd3ff63a094c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Project 2025" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "weird" or "weirdo" at debate? | 61,606,768 | 61,682,610 |
0bf2748215fa86c11b7c78a78c9348062e67787f | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x410cf54c410454dcd90d6c78ced7c9e3122c52925dd8339790cdb93d73bf86ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Project 2025" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Tips" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Q... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "democracy" at debate? | 61,606,769 | 61,680,248 |
cc48a0dfc8f2aeb1863d4fe08e5bea1c02075191 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x78a4702f121b256bfc0d54258c3c4dc525eefa0759538318b8c025b0904b1a7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Tips" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "San Francisco" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. ... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "DEI" at debate? | 61,668,110 | 61,677,324 |
68ccd92940c65b7f3e16fdb644e45e4033e6d6c6 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x559ba1449a3d76efd6a4d5a6837386eed2d736c4d04e7a25142ad966eb729cde | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "San Francisco" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tim Walz say "Teacher" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-walz-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" at debate? | 61,670,298 | 61,670,858 |
ecdaa81cf62fc607a6d6e0d6347240b32807fe3a | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x81b60c9e22dc7dec2f768b8fa0c088fc9f4a934ed88b905b79c4b9fa068b81f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz say "Teacher" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-walz-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tim Walz say "J.D." or "Vance" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-walz-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question:... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate? | 61,670,298 | 61,682,610 |
b34d61d3dfe8b9f283e7af54b2450bca3f5aac3c | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x995438035db4dc5a2c99d6077ccd197cd56256a36453d05529b50717682d2c0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz say "J.D." or "Vance" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-walz-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump lead on August 30? | Event: trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump sa... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "MAGA" 3 or more times at debate? | 61,670,298 | 61,682,611 |
241ef51c6e0352fc4809fcfdc434c8883fd3bc92 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1ae9475f8a5a24464c4be57c30be72af0858b32c00af2631ca593e282de74e8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead on August 30? | Event: trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "fired" 3 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trum... | yes | 1 | beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $75m and $85m opening weekend? | 61,670,476 | 61,670,476 |
f98753a16fa86563f48df6d8829d857956a51654 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x441d6d04f5ca335051daad6ac49ca48d65b49f826e071bf145ef3ca27f34694a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "fired" 3 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "alien" 5 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "cat" at debate? | 61,670,858 | 61,670,858 |
9e708fb03e64c63cff3a038287fa832b01bf45c3 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x3273484a3b43ecbaa6c21380d21bab33413ce0836e07254d5369a269be9592e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "alien" 5 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "fake news" at debate? | 61,670,858 | 61,671,703 |
c926f16cb8d7860d569d8024961786ea539e8918 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xff359cdc25f6deedcf7e6b0fb9460622d0560b3b94a74f04095346a3fd3c17c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "green new scam" at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Qu... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "drill baby drill" at debate? | 61,670,858 | 61,675,350 |
c4ba26ca416ccd54cfa83b912ca94e648b7b78cd | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x4378240374a1fea11c1bd4bd3fbfeb76b72db9478a6666bbf0df15664e31c16f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "green new scam" at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "tampon" at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "border czar" at debate? | 61,670,858 | 61,677,324 |
08790657dc31c5ac7bfa7c4fe1b57b8128894ac3 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xe2539f532afbcbb2a60cd303e439178300580750bd98e874f26763ded9968551 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "tampon" at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question:... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "border" 15 or more times at debate? | 61,670,858 | 61,684,663 |
8da8f0dff4619cca0daefea3e3ca7e57b475073d | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xb9401c4da76096a90e820e8046cb809467ef400be5a2188e83382ccfc2a9d562 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "China" 5 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "Haitian" at debate? | 61,671,703 | 61,671,703 |
bc5a47685897963c760e5f36d44ecf15074065ed | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1bb026101870907c1b86c9d8d2a241f25976f36c013aeaa178490a9c3c018fa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 5 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0.000005 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "China" 3 or more times at debate? | 61,671,703 | 61,672,141 |
238c6a8bf6cbc5aea7f9f3c3cce9505eaaed77b6 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1633ee2223bd6788e577e70809ba87f52923e69d32f236fcbd5e7db3f0e924a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "McDonald's" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala say "I'm ... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "fraud" at debate? | 61,671,703 | 61,680,248 |
b1e0056493f8ee718bee1862a07213a73b12559c | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x7ac736b7717487491be32f683cd44313cf963d8a01e345e02575238fa69ed215 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "McDonald's" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "I'm speaking" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "drill baby drill" a... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "Springfield" at debate? | 61,671,703 | 61,680,248 |
d5e6fee50f55fbd1658e514efdec115bae485829 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x5b1f2236218b53a2d8f1c24b8ec4f256c84cf316d944252c9fc98e37832aa952 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "I'm speaking" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "drill baby drill" at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump sa... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "alien" 5 or more times at debate? | 61,672,141 | 61,675,350 |
58b557d024b745c365548fb28bd053d53e8350d8 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x73c167c2ed26d7bb0d624fb5f0ab2c18aa2239d60f6ecc989eb654a962487025 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "drill baby drill" at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 0.000103 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "Israel" at debate? | 61,675,350 | 61,675,350 |
2a9140e7d8a2b4c799f15f7d6de4dde20863b077 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xfde6e688ae45502d87416f74f5d425a6f157f3d6d0c4d248e740f4ef16ff08b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times at Wisconsin rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "unrealized" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: W... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "tampon" at debate? | 61,675,350 | 61,675,350 |
94df549ac1c8191a9c8d011fac32d90f769279a2 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xa7a646b82cc5917a519be2a6f8d1d6235deeb670be8cff7a76f28e629b74e0aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "unrealized" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "not going back" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala say "wall" at debate?... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Will Trump say "abortion" at debate? | 61,675,350 | 61,680,248 |
cd894edf1df6443bb73508f379dd3cc3b65f4c3b | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x348cd8ab4075f61d3742f549a0350525b817db398825544053cb4050789cff50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "not going back" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "wall" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala say "inflation" at debate? ... | no | 0 | will-trump-say-a-slur-during-the-debate | Will Trump say a slur during the debate? | 61,678,674 | 61,678,674 |
9e1bd692d934abf3ec3dec7d2f25dc4461b6d743 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xb797e8c633d3e989a7cc840317adaa008c673b5d02619825398ba8e2988e4d32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "wall" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "inflation" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala say "abortion" at debate? | Even... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" during her North Carolina rally? | 61,720,798 | 61,720,798 |
219b9f0c0ed039177b61cb64633e96c1406b74ec | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xbd0203a4173e0b9c7f4ba29553489251eadf9a991579d4f94ca45f30a4917703 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "inflation" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "abortion" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala say "Project 2025" at debate... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Will Kamala Harris say "border" 5 or more times during her North Carolina rally? | 61,720,798 | 61,720,798 |
297480c1c64b8483d8af832af10336df4454f23c | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xc8dac3a301474908eb05dc0cfbd6d86d1c7b77b41b6d382ad66f53d6d8e0071e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "abortion" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "Project 2025" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala say "border" 5 or more ti... | no | 0 | will-caitlin-clark-endorse-kamala-harris | Will Caitlin Clark endorse Kamala Harris? | 61,720,798 | 61,720,798 |
41f9c1b9b8f321375f6b9a722508a5fc03888255 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xdba45a0a64ea9bbb1d517017e475008cf22774c2d2f36ee9339ae2b170aa5f55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "Project 2025" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "border" 5 or more times at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.026808591466678e-06
3. Question: Will... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Will Kamala Harris say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during her North Carolina rally? | 61,720,798 | 61,720,798 |
38d51f9e49c6f685f9bd62830b725407937f803c | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xf1ba175bb82c5048fe9f0498a6773722a1a2ffd53a4af052dd545a6b605668cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "border" 5 or more times at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.026808591466678e-06
2. Question: Will Kamala say "convicted felon" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: W... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "moderator" during his Arizona rally? | 61,720,798 | 61,750,930 |
6d742a9af4c766fab763fee4a33ac425d052fb55 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xad3cf7097f56e4ca3281d6929a3536a4bf7417eaa5066eaeb286c2ef9d2009c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "convicted felon" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "Artificial Intelligence" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala say "JD... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his Arizona rally? | 61,720,798 | 61,753,679 |
76008bc2d1ef1fff9975a07ba56b2954642e0336 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x3cac0a6272f4fa938a67231c1ec508a1fba6b739fd55ebac68f7da7da55c28b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "Artificial Intelligence" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "JD" or "Vance" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala say "liar... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "Abdul" during his Arizona rally? | 61,720,798 | 61,755,971 |
36975fe91455899f2d71d3f278dbe34ece01d88f | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x5e41d0d45ede13c396b8d30e83955c4ab385e94251a8efa2e2ea697a2b271192 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "JD" or "Vance" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "liar" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala say "weird" or "weirdo" at d... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "fraud" during his Arizona rally? | 61,720,798 | 61,755,971 |
8a9cafe5ec8406d2db02778f0a05cfb3ed92b222 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1095e1676b759e552fae09644b9fcb8f1bad31f519bdb15823a0c5a613e37f8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "liar" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "weird" or "weirdo" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala say "democracy" at debat... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Will Kamala Harris say "McDonald's" during her North Carolina rally? | 61,720,798 | 61,759,410 |
3f68c0155061054124e862f0ea7fbfee6eca5d1d | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x70fd8785460833a879fa15ede919a071067286f5bebdc7adb57cacb04fa8a5e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "weird" or "weirdo" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "democracy" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala say "DEI" at debate... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Will Kamala Harris say "liar" during her North Carolina rally? | 61,720,798 | 61,759,410 |
902c0a4949b81cc05a2dfacd526d47d3cdbc5e61 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x41b371601c3dac9cd0204c5245e17340718916fcf6518e0fd223eb3b6b8bc422 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "democracy" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "DEI" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" at debate? | ... | yes | 0.000083 | what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Will Kamala Harris say "unrealized" during her North Carolina rally? | 61,720,800 | 61,720,800 |
b80fe6005b205b1688baaf0ea1dac484ef8059c2 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x3279ab2cd36f14f6cd00a5df470d0f9e43368f6c8277b1621a22b37f698951bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "DEI" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at d... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "tampon" during his Arizona rally? | 61,720,800 | 61,748,524 |
3920f11460cd444a6722bb9a0ac7010cdd2493da | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x90c3f5c223576a88a7433fcf820e77b43662afb39beac7ce776d9ac2c6b72cbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "MAGA" 3 or... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "fact check" during his Arizona rally? | 61,720,800 | 61,751,301 |
07020e7e28448c4101b64b9fd6c1670f7054bf91 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x182b6f374118ad6acbc9f681bd29b455f808906d97962e91f7cbc63b5676bf83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "MAGA" 3 or more times at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Be... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "Springfield" during his Arizona rally? | 61,720,800 | 61,753,679 |
2a8601a0723c6280f9a22555eefd722effffaee5 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xd91ba48d2161a3485bca3e9b6d4ab3c1942648b35f900fd329a8c8d5ed3a5f26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "MAGA" 3 or more times at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $75m and $85m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confi... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "cat" during his Arizona rally? | 61,720,800 | 61,753,752 |
ccb6588e37a86a13f6e843a95cb8708cc9a1a22d | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x8f3abd0870502b3543c4e5354ef0d87135f481d1315708a313867873514f9786 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $75m and $85m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "cat" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Que... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his Arizona rally? | 61,720,800 | 61,755,971 |
38ce50f4de83452779a2c67c90b28faaaae924de | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x9ae5a0f365570246db9c120f9ace6b80163a0feb2f79bd4ac88b2c5ff6099ade | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "cat" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "fake news" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "drill baby drill" at debate? | Ev... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "dog" during his Arizona rally? | 61,720,800 | 61,755,971 |
98e12440920039c947954e826054a90d74894291 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x3d797804894932de3257071d4498aefab172e81e7fee1fdba70024af2512bb3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "fake news" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "drill baby drill" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "border czar" at deba... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Will Kamala Harris say "abortion ban" during her North Carolina rally? | 61,720,800 | 61,755,972 |
a45e6a7e25badbe6645c405dce42dd1b5c3f8d8d | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xdfeec4ffc77367390ec8085bd252ce246a45737e38b3b17cfc626c9fdc2fc8ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "drill baby drill" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "border czar" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "border" 15 or more... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Will Kamala Harris say "Project 2025" during her North Carolina rally? | 61,720,800 | 61,755,972 |
1806af77c4fe77cf19ff49941985e00f6663f4e7 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x0295436263f7f9717b0c9e97a46bd74ce8ae26fff07b9aa580f94a2fb1e96ec8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "border czar" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "border" 15 or more times at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "Haitian" at... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Will Kamala Harris say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during her North Carolina rally? | 61,720,800 | 61,759,410 |
012489e16afb459c61a0880f7007cf528c3fa7bc | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xe9f9a83f98e1bfcc01e5e79ecafb648f8843be2e2d36121fa331ede382c91f89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "border" 15 or more times at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Haitian" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "China" 3 or mor... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his Arizona rally? | 61,748,524 | 61,748,524 |
b3e1473c2630ea82b0b7d6e08c8f074f17386578 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x4df87e5d9e0ebbb25c8fa1c6ce6606b7d85a3ed98bc9c8411ff4930a8abf722f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Haitian" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "China" 3 or more times at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.1818450331969905e-06
3. Question: Will Trump sa... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during his Arizona rally? | 61,748,524 | 61,753,679 |
507b9f19828ff6c7551318718ced10b902530148 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xe8dda8a75787ab02fb4c6ac0fcf955003b642eda1725cd00fe4a758a6d28abed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 3 or more times at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.1818450331969905e-06
2. Question: Will Trump say "fraud" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say ... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Will Kamala Harris say "weird" during her North Carolina rally? | 61,748,526 | 61,748,526 |
80d94c0d7ae1c35424e6b78bb1a57408e6d54404 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xf2c57e3297f2503c931c53d733312f383ce60dd631c80cc5431138f65796e74f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "fraud" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Springfield" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "alien" 5 or more times at deb... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "veto" during his Arizona rally? | 61,748,526 | 61,748,526 |
e3f406716ffa164b28dd066db023d6cf4fe97814 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x203dda1e551b95208b66cba506cf5251b59f7cf05194731b3aaf85aef2c857ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Springfield" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "alien" 5 or more times at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "Israel" at de... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "China" 5 or more times during his Arizona rally? | 61,748,526 | 61,751,301 |
3d5b853867974d5567bd50da5e00ab5e96dcc9b9 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x41de33dd4900662368f8cbde6b810bef7ce1afe76931d2f32ff5b4bd141aebfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "alien" 5 or more times at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Israel" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00010321287587446768
3. Question: Will Trump say ... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Arizona rally? | 61,750,302 | 61,750,302 |
24e196da35644870387f76e2c2d169f0235da7ce | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x0ac4fd523316a676a32ee75f91979d3f41cd79573e5d62cc9376334b0c0cf5e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Israel" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00010321287587446768
2. Question: Will Trump say "tampon" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "abortion" at d... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-nevada-rally | Will Trump say "50 border states" during his Nevada rally? | 61,784,468 | 61,784,468 |
39a519cc9045449e7b23984c82303d35dea19107 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x310ab489acba59f89ae877119080451a52c50b40616da555cb87eeaacad53d15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "tampon" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "abortion" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say a slur during the debate? | Even... | no | 0.000132 | what-will-trump-say-during-nevada-rally | Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during his Nevada rally? | 61,784,468 | 61,784,468 |
da0bf05bcb102eb1170fc820fa11a7fee5a4a6de | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xe93b0d6599d7c4097003ec468073e2b6a62e0cae297f59b361524a2c28e52c3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "abortion" at debate? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say a slur during the debate? | Event: will-trump-say-a-slur-during-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "artificial ... | no | 0.000029 | what-will-trump-say-during-nevada-rally | Will Trump say "trans" during his Nevada rally? | 61,784,468 | 61,784,468 |
4833b2c08158b68052deef89bee0f52b3e584439 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x6d4b28478b43a12792dbda87288da726744d2fcfccefbdb62a08430efcb85030 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say a slur during the debate? | Event: will-trump-say-a-slur-during-the-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" during her North Carolina rally? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-nevada-rally | Will Trump say "moderator" during his Nevada rally? | 61,784,468 | 61,797,849 |
cdb1790ea7f87cd3ebf18a69cda023187a9355e1 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xc650f4b1d866c10a315081ccaf0566be720dd89b6d0a13aa7cfd1b05255a5c17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" during her North Carolina rally? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "border" 5 or more times during her North Carolina rally? | Event: what-will-kamala-sa... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-nevada-rally | Will Trump say "tampon" during his Nevada rally? | 61,784,468 | 61,797,849 |
3854d9527a1e1a0be29d6f4407040fdd449a15a9 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xfbf51f826e74364bb14e3a51d44b60bd4ea755187c548d9f8cf6b8b0d39eb5e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "border" 5 or more times during her North Carolina rally? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Caitlin Clark endorse Kamala Harris? | Event: will-caitlin-clark-endorse-kamala-harris | Choice: no | Con... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-nevada-rally | Will Trump say "abortion" during his Nevada rally? | 61,784,468 | 61,797,849 |
9a7bfdb955bd5f54d9a0ae3afea65fca442fa413 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x73aa30582765d4072f77bb71a6f34a523f25e5b6c2851b71f3246f7abebe996b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Caitlin Clark endorse Kamala Harris? | Event: will-caitlin-clark-endorse-kamala-harris | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during her North Carolina rally? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-nevada-rally | Will Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his Nevada rally? | 61,784,468 | 61,799,199 |
3bf7dd1a4d5280a3514d2ce420f891248035321e | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xfe053946a6df54f36291dd2363f0fe241696bc3962a796fed502b94bc2cd5af4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during her North Carolina rally? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-north-carolina-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "moderator" during his Arizona rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally | Choice: ... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-nevada-rally | Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his Nevada rally? | 61,784,468 | 61,799,199 |
19ca88b1766d658f19b428fcd1a0c6b1bbe57e9a | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x7ba9966df4273217fb16f6fcbf9eb7fd36c64285521ebf809c2faac64a0eda30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest?
Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | 60,716,897 | 60,716,897 |
a669f92b9789fe75add744ed05bf102c5c8819cd | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x91cb9560f73b1a468e7f85b07d46dd07146075b6927f4e3f96aa9abfbc97c144 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton?
Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target m... | no | 1 | epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | 60,716,897 | 60,716,897 |
fa617fff4802671674b3dcb03edae1c3a2058223 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0xc5d44748c8d00d53902a41d73678bd3036ea46481a308bab7e2aec203dd59add | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Crystal... | yes | 1 | epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Will Crystal Palace beat West Ham? | 61,017,273 | 61,017,273 |
6cbbd47ef6d6dee588b760c46a1b094ffa63d0e6 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x7959743a6cdc75590cb7bd829690667f4401cb7113b541a5b30af9a676f07327 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | epl-wolverhampton-vs-newcastle | Will Wolverhampton beat Newcastle? | 61,874,200 | 61,874,200 |
8e996a7b072f15f3ab7705572633f3868d7a63c9 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x9e3e977e490922b6cee1ec183356bb905afd182c2f9f0dd5594b49830f7549e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | epl-tottenham-vs-arsenal | Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | 61,874,200 | 61,874,200 |
65d4ce0d15541ffd57ceec08e2cd9f7d69f85f3e | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0xdc65133698d961ae1feef4cad9f19f4d38e49b07e6d65abe8dce0d9e7e164d29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | ucl-ac-milan-vs-liverpool | Will AC Milan vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 61,979,385 | 61,979,385 |
a5578bf43e0d0bb767775e5f7cf47a8dc70981cf | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x4ad59349cb2b1287b0051e0c62a35280a8e030aea82453f072d80b167d2c52bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-vs-girona | Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Girona? | 62,020,805 | 62,020,805 |
f617e993d527e8b3c6204d52cea09198b64736f3 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x63620fc353e45d023711c069e9ef48c3afb7269dda42649078c14f7e23ce4230 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | ucl-bologna-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Will Bologna beat Shakhtar Donetsk? | 62,020,805 | 62,020,805 |
7792ed895e1e520ffc34673043b4f111aaa4568f | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x819f39664b08f1ff1cc77e19131bb9a62c2605207fb7bbf49a21e8dd7018c76f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | ucl-sparta-praha-vs-rb-salzburg | Will Sparta Praha beat RB Salzburg? | 62,020,805 | 62,020,805 |
d7fa85d22dfc17972933980ea9346f53f4e3d5d1 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0xa9e99020dc85c535dd04997e0a5d66865d332d34c7faabcb4b8ee2344e403f01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | ucl-manchester-city-vs-inter-milan | Will Manchester City beat Inter Milan? | 62,020,805 | 62,020,805 |
92473d6e1dd871c6555bc86efea5498784a105bb | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x94e0d145ebb2c1f3dda9f9bc14201cad7477bc2f988e76c1208593a5d82b883e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | ucl-monaco-vs-barcelona | Will Monaco beat Barcelona? | 62,075,487 | 62,075,487 |
cb1151081770972c8c16fdff13f64af8123ce12a | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0xb78eb980dcda58c60f92419d45c4c900a6a189ea9adc1a16e077c03d1494fe74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | ucl-red-star-belgrade-vs-benfica | Will Red Star Belgrade beat Benfica? | 62,075,487 | 62,075,487 |
d7f22c273fcbeffbe4e157884d73866465039b30 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x016311c04a6bdb14e7b240bfc3fd7915a3cb559a2c5237007c4129cb955c4043 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | epl-crystal-palace-vs-manchester-united | Will Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | 62,117,390 | 62,117,390 |
cb083980024fb1f778621404a4b1724a3240dace | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x2bccec1b9a266f43af1d8c785725a44100c73a2d632daa9c31b59f0d86109f55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | epl-tottenham-vs-brentford | Will Tottenham beat Brentford? | 62,117,390 | 62,117,390 |
a0711bc0857c27bc62632b32c76208294b32bd34 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x65c9ec98b7dcca2805f68825fa0b88d6743bf8efa89cd6480e7c2e6fb5c5bf8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | epl-leicester-city-vs-everton | Will Leicester City beat Everton? | 62,117,390 | 62,117,390 |
2bf3d08dd2c9976de07ef8cfbfc13eab7d58316d | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0xbcf27deb6a70fe06b255fecc7745a8e3be49be105bd25414e721e0d14d53709f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | epl-crystal-palace-vs-manchester-united | Will Crystal Palace beat Manchester United? | 62,117,390 | 62,117,390 |
057845df672e69601740e9ed056c8a63ca3f6e1f | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0xcfe4ef7e5b42d69c8e82b241854693b3b31924807b8a55d6c590aa8e8b81b839 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | epl-aston-villa-vs-wolverhampton | Will Aston Villa beat Wolverhampton? | 62,117,390 | 62,117,390 |
09ab408580f92f5b99a9d75aaee26b0aa7165b10 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x1e8c0214ea10b3580d9bc18845184da89713bc9e4797a66e94d13f4ff4c5cdf0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | epl-brighton-vs-nottingham-forest | Will Brighton beat Nottingham Forest? | 62,191,351 | 62,191,351 |
f90cffba570a921a547ac727d55b1ccacb6581e2 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x00303d30fb640887a64a3379cdf5d7caa7a9aaf1156a972ea9b1f3d5e79c940a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-midtjylland-vs-hoffenheim | Will Midtjylland beat Hoffenheim? | 62,279,300 | 62,279,300 |
d3974347614d36832dabdc7c9f46c14c3058b537 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x171b8ca724bd69f4039a421d48a8a03cbf267212bce442a18db6db7137df5d4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-anderlecht-vs-ferencvaros | Will Anderlecht beat Ferencvaros? | 62,279,300 | 62,279,300 |
046ff2d3a025009f053f7d4525a54e195aea8a50 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x4a53ef8d48c3b8608caa27bc754c0e1b22e6244f9dc6388f9427fcc8f876470d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-az-alkmaar-vs-if-elfsborg | Will AZ Alkmaar beat IF Elfsborg? | 62,279,300 | 62,279,300 |
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