sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a88f5e87050469b8f4762c771be288bc686f8b7b | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x7abb38afd204b7273867cab17477328312b0c97ad5ce741427b5c3e7e4f3f177 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Obama say "Climate change" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Biden say "Folks" three or more times at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-biden-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will B... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Context" during DNC speech? | 60,922,977 | 60,925,689 |
72c90d96e35f0e016d98b80c89cebd1d65126601 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x2c8c609faf153485a0247b3ed367d553503b2245f129dbd994e28d5b06ea5f47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden say "Folks" three or more times at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-biden-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Biden say "Hunter" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-biden-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Obama sa... | no | 0 | will-george-bush-speak-at-the-dnc | Will George Bush speak at the DNC? | 60,922,977 | 60,928,757 |
d3d231911243262ed55d9bcafd87267a0a82926b | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x38b445b442f05f7d41ef231b1503aa8555c9edfc57a19870d720ab1affada83e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden say "Hunter" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-biden-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Obama say "Black" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Obama say "Donald Trump" at ... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Monkeypox" during DNC speech? | 60,922,977 | 60,931,531 |
2b9b723e3470b0ca276b24dc6b47386e8d8fe6d3 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x624fc04e8309aa163af6859aaa516c6d65759270f97ac1c92374ae9900649b38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Obama say "Black" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Obama say "Donald Trump" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Obama say "Joe Biden" a... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Inflation" during DNC speech? | 60,922,977 | 60,931,531 |
b99c4fab98c7e3c220fba1a38fa5f15f2677ae9c | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x89bac5804383f9df93e5dc7e14fa065ae7d527eaf9c856170eab79e30f317bc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Obama say "Donald Trump" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Obama say "Joe Biden" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Obama say "Hope" at... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Inflation" 3 or more times during DNC speech? | 60,922,977 | 60,931,531 |
81d60d5df47fd52aa8676cce7223ec110b50bb7e | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1ff061748325e27c09cb2f227bf5c830efc332ba61431d437ac869627e030862 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Obama say "Joe Biden" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Obama say "Hope" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "tampon" during W... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Jew" during DNC speech? | 60,922,978 | 60,922,978 |
1f7fef5a2f3797074e1c68464d3b11e1d06cee58 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x5280663360f676a1474fe2df3595f79bfa0cbde1238bad8a2307da51a9f5ae96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Obama say "Hope" at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "tampon" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "nuc... | no | 0 | what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Gretchen Whitmer say "White House" in DNC speech? | 60,922,978 | 60,922,978 |
cc7fb296aa192de3894bbd5721688caaffbb686f | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x6fa74db3be25f8d3ab9064d75e58c30dbd96609a18b301bc128b63a590e9fb83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "tampon" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "nuclear" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Weird" or "Weirdo" during DNC speech? | 60,922,978 | 60,922,978 |
92c83fc8f3d1cf5b0f4f137331be131d6b893923 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x2a966d9dbee1f52aa1fff9005a6f1a0c19887e34a4ff6c90e2013d5725f89294 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "nuclear" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "ceasefire" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questio... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Ukraine" during DNC speech? | 60,922,978 | 60,925,689 |
7a3a31887eeadfd424d87b51ee1e1170ccf8e7af | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x5c35dee6dcf90ac376de439e3f90b542fc2d836bd8968d96c6c8cf7fa131c23d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "ceasefire" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Venezuela" 3 or more times during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Oakland" during DNC speech? | 60,922,978 | 60,925,689 |
0baee0a8cd4da2766d46474c03202827a5111bf0 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x32ea63a024cf335a378ec9e723e2472d0f00435ba8b854bf08023d7af12b27df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Venezuela" 3 or more times during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Putin" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 0 | what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Glass Ceiling" in DNC speech? | 60,922,978 | 60,928,772 |
b625e15efc78a9e1b841349f2cd79b93dd6c9724 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x8f8789735a21a04c6ea52f369e54d2423df5d616e84e00f858776d54b3efc61b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Putin" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.2225149452452056e-05
2. Question: Will Obama say "Thank you" 7 or more times at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Project 2025" during DNC speech? | 60,922,978 | 60,931,531 |
edc2823d5ad3920d42e921dd67a9656bbc3ed35e | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x0c0fc1af5f345885d63682f1a1311bd8956cc1c2983117808bf0cfc72f1120eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Obama say "Thank you" 7 or more times at DNC speech? | Event: what-will-obama-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 0 | what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Will RFK Jr. say "Vaccine" during Friday address? | 60,922,978 | 60,953,564 |
01a004f4b19ab8505fb42aa27ee87fae66323b82 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xfdeba1e2616d7109790d7f483af17d08e3458200f11ee9782a2b398bc1684cee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6058817206029575
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-o... | yes | 0.162109 | how-many-viewers-will-kamalas-dnc-speech-get | Will Kamala's DNC speech have less than 23m viewers? | 60,922,978 | 60,996,863 |
8582d935d9d3aba939d0adbb9dedfb1788b1009e | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x3ab063708b9af85d7cff3a112931605d936be22c614566fdf8b3f83f9a0a0f93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3332163127962291
2. Question: Will Trump say "World War 3" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-spee... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "McDonald's" during DNC speech? | 60,922,980 | 60,922,980 |
72bb7e2327d0ad7684823237988a9611485b7420 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x5b6387e2281693a19785e12e8859d992533c257bcc34aa33ac8856f71b0d8769 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "World War 3" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Zelensky" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "abortion" during DNC speech? | 60,922,980 | 60,922,980 |
945fce8ab6d96bd2ea60fa88d61eb7e08da7b82e | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x988947c8e2aa425ed293432e3165fce1778852c55403ba449e2f7788025a4572 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Zelensky" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $95m and $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice... | no | 0.000512 | what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Big Gretch" in DNC speech? | 60,922,980 | 60,922,980 |
0c41be7cab82c0e4f92cc3344826e3f7c6b37e90 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xad1de3cef1690a938ec3963a0da5c639b8a8dc9242505f6cfc5d2d3acb0e0bb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $95m and $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? | Event: rfk-jr-endorses-trump | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.000167 | what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Will Trump post "Border" 3 or more times on final night of DNC? | 60,922,980 | 60,922,980 |
7c2c3cd5b2fd8385de2aeb3a8ace38d672ec627e | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xc38e789406d7adb2dc5e9f0ed25600dbae9fb430653d9b68f8a36a631d52bfdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? | Event: rfk-jr-endorses-trump | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Iran" 3 or more times during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "... | no | 0 | what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Michigan" in DNC speech? | 60,922,980 | 60,925,689 |
8399490a3eb69a5477dd9c77f9538cb970ca8bb7 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xf72d972732237882151de776a11857a5de4870d938fc3b9a4443c97e9a0c4796 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Iran" 3 or more times during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Ceasefire" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 0 | what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Donald Trump" 3 or more times in DNC speech? | 60,922,980 | 60,925,690 |
9e1c75c39f578479ce330d87559431c55ba02a39 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xf00ac5f251f3ceaeb95f53d4c579c31233738626ffa09033ede3e86e8291f10e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Ceasefire" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned fewer than 50 times at the DNC today? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during DNC speech? | 60,922,980 | 60,931,531 |
cfa90425fc89f4d941bc576d322318dd3dbf9732 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x49794187398520c7d1a6647bcc0133ff0ee7bf0b534b75432ebf73a2c178dce4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned fewer than 50 times at the DNC today? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Unburdened" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 0 | what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Will RFK Jr. say "CIA" during Friday address? | 60,922,980 | 60,955,934 |
b9020e191397187c8543fc63ed84f31e9c019dc1 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xfb0ab4ab0f2202d5c2959bc14bb2d0c40939e4584275ba38e141b48434f2d9d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Unburdened" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Israel" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 0 | what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Will RFK Jr. say "Third Party" during Friday address? | 60,922,980 | 60,957,422 |
138a1223aa9c21aa6df3d77f9bc8dd4b7b3afd92 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xc9f32b7e00ac7cc654576048d7341133f3479b7d628278f3c8aebebf9cb93c97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Israel" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned between 75-99 times at the DNC today? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump ment... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Joy" during DNC speech? | 60,922,980 | 61,127,422 |
f9103f5f9da9440bcbf2edc7e6728eff2f8e7121 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x98488fa3889e371e97d905792abce01975cc61da4948108da07629d5b08d83a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned between 75-99 times at the DNC today? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned between 100-124 times at the DNC today? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "Com... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Will Trump post "Bitcoin" or "BTC" on final night of DNC? | 60,925,690 | 60,925,690 |
da408d5f851a8b93efcc9fc200dc2af7e908218d | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xc391ddacf15374bfbab017b50852a50f17e8090227200cec1c036f2af8c43073 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned between 100-124 times at the DNC today? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: T... | no | 0 | what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Democracy" in DNC speech? | 60,925,690 | 60,925,690 |
6894f93c8e71eaec3873f98bba627e749529cf8a | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xdc38ba0775dac2b308b0a8d45d80d37f3073196e3017e7d068f619c6b88f02da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" during Wednesday speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin? | Event: trump-flips-kamala-on-nate-silvers-bulletin | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Inflation" in DNC speech? | 60,925,690 | 60,925,690 |
d1718c6fb8c2e4796fbcf390d6898ee513a0dc67 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x8f364fdd5775453c75337ceeaf2443baec4ef8dddfea0cc701d20c0b88f49346 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin? | Event: trump-flips-kamala-on-nate-silvers-bulletin | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Obama" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: W... | no | 0 | what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Will RFK Jr. say "Debate" during Friday address? | 60,925,690 | 60,955,934 |
a197df101017b99ed4ffd19bc1cd889a06f7f4d2 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x643001fb4566eff744bae8fb9cc4eab7f5412318e74038bb70e161821d9edf81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Obama" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Donald" or "Trump" 5 or more times during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Will Trump post "Unrealized gains" on final night of DNC? | 60,928,757 | 60,928,757 |
a2e797d7925fc4bc35db6e2b4579d8f0ef6d9bc3 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x6e025e17b0a57c40f16682a4a681d0170e9ffc2fe17defb05e5f8bcd6b885dec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Donald" or "Trump" 5 or more times during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Context" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice:... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe" on final night of DNC? | 60,928,757 | 60,928,757 |
85ca7d7f7775f04b01e52e6c72dff3bd3bb5b22e | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x9ff39e66816dc7ee09b042c3ebfc0c4e21c49eb8ffcee8db37f4017fe3cc6376 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Context" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will George Bush speak at the DNC? | Event: will-george-bush-speak-at-the-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris s... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Will Trump post "Crypto" on final night of DNC? | 60,928,757 | 60,928,757 |
cb28eb71507d595cee7c9a52b7986667063fbfe7 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x61ad83b216f89a724291e8c308f38d26015d41a81ff1823cd4d7c6afebcc5eb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Bush speak at the DNC? | Event: will-george-bush-speak-at-the-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Monkeypox" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris... | no | 0 | what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Will RFK Jr. say "Kamala" or "Harris" during Friday address? | 60,928,757 | 60,955,934 |
a796ea49fd99b055594b1d7babaab5382edf0e59 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x664b3d2b60eafd2e3c70c6780751f884a3b14728d409f4d07e83a51f03ef9324 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Monkeypox" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Inflation" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
... | no | 0 | what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Will RFK Jr. say "Endorse" during Friday address? | 60,928,757 | 60,958,052 |
b094027c8629c017f716f8440f2d9d8bb54a544d | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x9be775262e29bf2de100f9b595ca6703aa11c6154bfe137b86ed0dc990e820a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Inflation" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Inflation" 3 or more times during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | ... | no | 0 | will-ex-amazon-vp-ethan-reveal-who-seduced-his-wife | Will Ex-Amazon VP reveal who seduced his wife? | 60,928,758 | 61,127,422 |
9b052f7ca20d36c77bb2fafada1a63cfceef1387 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xc9dce27a2e9c6295552bba97ab13b54726d2e4dbdeb4e54ed96636b194fd6e64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Inflation" 3 or more times during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Jew" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Trump mentioned fewer than 20 times at the DNC on day 4? | 60,931,533 | 60,931,533 |
670aa1c861b65d9a0f7ec4aa0ec90028a2c54bc7 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xe51a240f3d333e2aa4b76513e47f850d18c15c7c239fb460272afa774f0c0c9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Jew" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "White House" in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3.... | no | 0 | will-cz-tweet-by-friday | Will CZ tweet by Friday? | 60,931,905 | 60,931,905 |
2845e6388c45aefa87ebf666d918c43cc4483b1a | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xdd542524d08e9ed3ef28fbe76fd944ed564a29c046b5917a797204894918d399 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "White House" in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Weird" or "Weirdo" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Trump mentioned between 20 and 39 times at the DNC on day 4? | 60,947,930 | 60,947,930 |
9781b2a4c63f0ff5af4e61dabb14b396cc19fb8a | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xc6d115d02e52d3fcaf082a074285cb8c4cf2ce0fcbdcf35a00044dc571bc1f9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Weird" or "Weirdo" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Ukraine" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Trump mentioned 100+ times at the DNC on day 4? | 60,947,931 | 60,947,931 |
730f66357bc29dbcc9a2ff61eab942d6568bf6c4 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xe60eb27ae750799acd72b16e6d1cb88417692f599018860d5e8493b8e857b9fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Ukraine" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Oakland" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Q... | no | 0 | what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Will RFK Jr. say "FDA" during Friday address? | 60,953,564 | 60,953,564 |
baf8f9e07fe2bb5df051f7d8552e48bdbaee3a5e | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x603ac78792bee1e1f8571cba88b6474e3120c31b0f34f62eaf88f1dd980021ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Oakland" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Glass Ceiling" in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Will RFK Jr. say "Corrupt" during Friday address? | 60,953,564 | 60,955,934 |
e057864448fad03f8233b528bb69de0deb48b81d | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x31e61aefb8bbddb371e3bd58609f3ef53c2695d8f96364c9560ed6fd36ca6634 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Glass Ceiling" in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Project 2025" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 0 | what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Will RFK Jr. say "Woke" during Friday address? | 60,953,564 | 60,958,052 |
fd98de7cc102fe42c61dfe03cf9120243bf56d25 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xbaa6b97e72dff1c2c9c83b8bdca319c35f7ca4bdc4b057e3d44eb2cbac62472c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Project 2025" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Vaccine" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Q... | no | 0 | what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Will RFK Jr. say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Friday address? | 60,953,564 | 60,958,052 |
af7233d64a68222e3e04573e15aeb76010060ff3 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xc0a143860aeef90e8760e2491b861fa8d488bf48bffdcebd811e59d9794bb15c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Vaccine" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala's DNC speech have less than 23m viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-kamalas-dnc-speech-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1621091315... | no | 0 | what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Will RFK Jr. say "Parasite" during Friday address? | 60,953,565 | 60,953,565 |
9e337f99c2230278f5024ad1410030699d234963 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1de126b7fef0c707f025b7bbd90bbe4f711e17fb6887af97c7206f2b59dff837 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala's DNC speech have less than 23m viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-kamalas-dnc-speech-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1621091315961869
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "McDonald's" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | C... | no | 0 | what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Will RFK Jr. say "Bear" during Friday address? | 60,953,565 | 60,958,052 |
8349f4ff3a978df6f212094192036a109d2474c2 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x356fd93e434d52c3eb7994233993297098ce0e0a4377f08bf1256c07f710fb1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "McDonald's" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "abortion" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Will Trump say "Tampon" at his Arizona speech? | 60,957,422 | 60,957,422 |
c860e706981d1226c133040df153afe096c91e23 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x8575d852e102e37dbe363779cd7debdaf0d49563a95ede47fb9f7f6edc5fa212 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "abortion" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Big Gretch" in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | yes | 0.000214 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Will Trump say "Orbán" at his Arizona speech? | 60,957,422 | 60,957,422 |
5ab2376fa8919af88d3d41f5bf1a5e1c301da84b | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x9adb151bce8068a3b376d1c06d2283ddc771ee7bac17c9a1951d0e7ace198392 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Big Gretch" in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0005124782568550939
2. Question: Will Trump post "Border" 3 or more times on final night of DNC? | Event: what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times at his Arizona speech? | 60,957,422 | 60,957,422 |
699e3fe84c5ff9d305c46a138bb851ec0f27dc79 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xa52175ab60ba46abe2b3044ee9720c00f7a7857eca527ae9ddfd1e941664f8cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post "Border" 3 or more times on final night of DNC? | Event: what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00016682782688152384
2. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Michigan" in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Will Trump say "World War 3" at his Arizona speech? | 60,957,422 | 60,957,422 |
648291bfdf7d21c00d34224d91880414a94f06e7 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xcfa23b963982de9fa40079dc46a79024b70dde235d0404b0f602f796e03a6250 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Michigan" in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Donald Trump" 3 or more times in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice:... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Will Trump say "nasty" at his Arizona speech? | 60,957,422 | 60,957,422 |
f8db9a917a7107560be4d369d0a8d51d1ffe5da6 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x213dcdd24f3813752dc31084b739552ad847d5544a3946fe905a6e0f23eb0e2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Donald Trump" 3 or more times in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech ... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Will Trump say "Space Force" at his Arizona speech? | 60,957,422 | 60,996,863 |
a4f802b6e00cf983232e4d3212592251fb8f5b60 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x3a46f236811befa0fb6215e34ea0d1e762bf93f1dfb9073336261d8900410f59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "CIA" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Will Trump say "insane asylum" at his Arizona speech? | 60,957,422 | 60,996,863 |
806ecf222e09d0bcfff9eb55853456beab7619fa | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xc367b4f7e7ce5eb828c55e5238ad0df26dd934c03a3d31a5a5fa0a1002a282b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "CIA" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Third Party" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: W... | no | 0.818565 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Trump mentioned between 50-74 times at the DNC today? | 61,005,347 | 61,005,347 |
0f26b65dc6a383ec5b0d6a0530cef41451f0d6e7 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xdedb2d4043925e1051e0bb214e9ef86719d55efc91f6883ee37a91060a87693a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Third Party" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Joy" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "Ceasefire" during CNN interview? | 61,134,220 | 61,134,220 |
8168addbdf7ed16076d31996f516ddc8b43b09c5 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x6ed5fc123fb62ace878a53c0ae3452e831a4f8d4b395e3b4e1943277bb9a3003 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Joy" during DNC speech? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-acceptance-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump post "Bitcoin" or "BTC" on final night of DNC? | Event: what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3... | no | 0 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Will J.D. Vance say "Comrade Kamala" during Pennsylvania rally? | 61,134,220 | 61,150,977 |
8e7567897161d41279dfb81b568f6c4612d30316 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x8c05d42c0ae5deace87c4068b80842be726feea96caaf3810e62f8ed98a5a37c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post "Bitcoin" or "BTC" on final night of DNC? | Event: what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Democracy" in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 0 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Will J.D. Vance say "mamaw" during Pennsylvania rally? | 61,134,220 | 61,165,376 |
dad6931c4508d3e303a114d30de845f9857ac4c9 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x77bdfb5a4553ff35a91bcaf8cfac3c078b9a4b0ebf08ba75486390ff1fc4d993 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Democracy" in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Inflation" in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Will J.D. Vance say "debate" during Pennsylvania rally? | 61,134,220 | 61,165,377 |
2dd7ca1097eb2496d696c97c1904b1a9aeaab43b | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xc0675c0fa19bb5ef8bc70030b8cf6dc884bc45ed0324aaa3b20b902cbcd524f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer say "Inflation" in DNC speech? | Event: what-will-gretchen-whitmer-say-during-dnc-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Debate" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Que... | no | 0 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Will J.D. Vance say "drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania rally? | 61,134,220 | 61,165,377 |
ec7b2b4ef62eb0ea196417cc6cba171e55be17d0 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xf3c3f7a31bd1cba242962acae915390683fdbd2fd618be451bd4a780fa4408cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Debate" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump post "Unrealized gains" on final night of DNC? | Event: what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. ... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "Abortion" during CNN interview? | 61,134,220 | 61,201,417 |
09b09fcd486b817a002c5f33ad39d6188e468b1a | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xe1e372401283bc6770ebfdcdb8fafa5d4e1c0760a16e918f98649736e23116ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post "Unrealized gains" on final night of DNC? | Event: what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe" on final night of DNC? | Event: what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "Prosecutor" during CNN interview? | 61,134,220 | 61,202,231 |
ec75bf6c65c034418fcbedf62e0125e93ad5b002 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x997d94cfa25e8638a8cd152a8c3ad54d74570f926da4e8b396d74da24268b5bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe" on final night of DNC? | Event: what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump post "Crypto" on final night of DNC? | Event: what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Que... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "Democracy" during CNN interview? | 61,134,220 | 61,204,579 |
145279dc5bf4c19b0d14e2c5248c35283a0e39c3 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x728b9ea225b5366a0a175621d2c5aafc3496d8edf52145f1afca987bbe667bd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post "Crypto" on final night of DNC? | Event: what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Kamala" or "Harris" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "Inflation" during CNN interview? | 61,134,220 | 61,207,366 |
d1f9a6488ca7df17cad8c0001e1a87a728140129 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1a98f162c590c80b0b1f9d8bfb40d055a5db5bac62ede0ac791bb439ca452b60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Kamala" or "Harris" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Endorse" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. ... | no | 0 | iran-military-response-by-friday-aug-30 | Iran military response by Friday? | 61,150,977 | 61,150,977 |
6890ff427005379cd210cc3327b1a5c2b615ea9a | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xeaca1da5de9478aeb68fdaec166d88b9fff7363e3a633ee9df8d9c87323531a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Endorse" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Ex-Amazon VP reveal who seduced his wife? | Event: will-ex-amazon-vp-ethan-reveal-who-seduced-his-wife | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Quest... | no | 0 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Will J.D. Vance say "fentanyl" during Pennsylvania rally? | 61,150,977 | 61,150,977 |
8d5d644d3216943cb6ce6c07aa4c4903aef11771 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x76650c9bf6e4266dff0b7da3a252f013a868d73a67f1d87e808260ed86cbf63e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ex-Amazon VP reveal who seduced his wife? | Event: will-ex-amazon-vp-ethan-reveal-who-seduced-his-wife | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned fewer than 20 times at the DNC on day 4? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 0 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Will J.D. Vance say "manufacturing" during Pennsylvania rally? | 61,150,977 | 61,165,376 |
1d59440e960c219a96a1c28affdd1ad67c005814 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xe3b2497372347284646e2e6887bede9fc093d76579c9480efb91734a58ae792d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned fewer than 20 times at the DNC on day 4? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CZ tweet by Friday? | Event: will-cz-tweet-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Trump mentioned between 20 and 39 times at the DNC o... | no | 0 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Will J.D. Vance say "China" 5 or more times during Pennsylvania rally? | 61,150,977 | 61,165,376 |
4f2e27a89e611a19294251ccdf7194df1f588185 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xcc765796e2f5377b182bd21bb226034c2f262bfa8ef263714611f05ed36103af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CZ tweet by Friday? | Event: will-cz-tweet-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned between 20 and 39 times at the DNC on day 4? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump mentioned 100+ times at the DNC on day 4? ... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "border" 25 or more times during Michigan town hall? | 61,150,977 | 61,201,418 |
0ee7a16810efecf3f7c3c33b11e958f3d970ccfd | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x265d4dc54d7c3fedb5127422ebaf9c36bdd6d5cd8d92191d1d7d0625402ca12d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned between 20 and 39 times at the DNC on day 4? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 100+ times at the DNC on day 4? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "FD... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "Pavel" or "Durov" during Michigan town hall? | 61,150,977 | 61,207,087 |
a4df6a4604389c78e750b7ea59bec78f367b3f42 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x608270e682c94d760641311d6892b2acc7da5f3fa2e5415f21e9950269901c91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned 100+ times at the DNC on day 4? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "FDA" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Cor... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "tampon" during Michigan town hall? | 61,150,977 | 61,207,087 |
2e6e38c446c77f0ab726b7fb4d9f800ba2562730 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x3157ea263270be44bd68a3d6bde1f6f639be2746974f65de24e00ea6378d7838 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "FDA" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Corrupt" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0.000585 | beetlejuice-beetlejuice-record-september-opening | 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' record September opening? | 61,150,978 | 61,150,978 |
1bc89ced1ae3ff432148c17159d4c8a474276a0e | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x74479f2cc85e976625891e85de6b1fc6f7095d810442c173977e806007ee4d06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Corrupt" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Woke" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "border czar" during Michigan town hall? | 61,150,978 | 61,150,978 |
dec4a89576c13005f02c14293b96f3216f38b56f | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xcc7940ba6cd94c27dfc3937bd7ae798a9e8919c0e8424df67b6992166e918bc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Woke" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Qu... | no | 0 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Will J.D. Vance say "you guys" during Pennsylvania rally? | 61,150,978 | 61,150,978 |
8a6fc4b243a880a3586950c840476a0f72a5ecfc | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xd7ed2019092e00af958fffed1110e70245f0b7d14dbd0f7f9f3e5d538aecacb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Parasite" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3... | no | 0 | will-threadguy-interview-trump-before-october | Will threadguy interview Trump before October? | 61,150,978 | 61,150,978 |
1f93545dacadcd939c40fc320ef4ff4e53c829c3 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xf5237e53219493d34fa6695c86626f4c0ce6f84981bf2f963214f5bfcf253c27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Parasite" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Bear" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "J.D." or "Vance" during CNN interview? | 61,150,978 | 61,201,418 |
9f3f000f07bf043a3ce7fee342bb96cff0035d09 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x6ec0506d3fd97a7280d7761992d638ae2f8401b7551b90afd17bd45a725a4ba5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. say "Bear" during Friday address? | Event: what-will-rfk-jr-say-during-friday-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Tampon" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Tru... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "Oakland" during CNN interview? | 61,150,978 | 61,204,579 |
22f478ac816de39c78c529b0e83984ac10427741 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xe5f0c5c9d2acecc84ec20553915444f62b2cf6bf881664da519804eaf757e57a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tampon" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Orbán" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00021437094505279844
3. ... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "weird "or "weirdo" during CNN interview? | 61,150,978 | 61,204,579 |
61fdfdb725b592ddccc911e3d255b45726b44343 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xcb61af28ac15a487a8edcad2398bcfabfb3e6ea233df4d8416758ab6be4c77bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Orbán" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00021437094505279844
2. Question: Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Con... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during Michigan town hall? | 61,150,978 | 61,207,087 |
fdfaa3f8ebc7f4e6bcf9e3c4e9fca2620cdfdea3 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x97ce3dc12ce4a0b302f074326248e0ff28ac6fe8bb6c85c77c3e4205de9c4101 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "World War 3" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "alien" 5 or more times during Michigan town hall? | 61,150,978 | 61,209,441 |
ec8a20ef0097200c2e5c7a3584c7c4eb9935495c | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xaf10e3a02adf5977211f9e39c5dbf809626d4bc80e3250c881fa01fdd09127dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "World War 3" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "nasty" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during CNN interview? | 61,150,978 | 61,235,183 |
071a07aea95022f04a7ef1b0a033565eac63dac7 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x51bd8218c981702e8c5f67b34a30d27bbfa2b6467d203246a5a7e6aa694d4e30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "nasty" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Space Force" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Will J.D. Vance say "NAFTA" during Pennsylvania rally? | 61,150,980 | 61,150,980 |
56bc450c5cb01a98c1bd41d4e6946fc99d9694eb | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x973049db823c839edbd873798a2c015649754d369cd4528a5463a2eb2ea40671 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Space Force" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "insane asylum" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questio... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "Beyonce" during CNN interview? | 61,150,980 | 61,150,980 |
0da572ad3584749535c68bcd30fe87d66162e03a | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xdef444dd7d348be5a2db7e3d22df5f55de97efbb81bd41a91d05561003dc07ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "insane asylum" at his Arizona speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned between 50-74 times at the DNC today? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8185648189542949
3. Ques... | no | 0 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Will J.D. Vance say "stolen valor" during Pennsylvania rally? | 61,150,980 | 61,150,980 |
7ee21d803472a84fa4a135f915b5803c96d1b79c | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x4a4e1d65c88369164459c9a05acfda440dc7fd60a9d75767b4c5a8c549b2bf54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned between 50-74 times at the DNC today? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8185648189542949
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Ceasefire" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Q... | no | 0 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Will J.D. Vance say "okay good" during Pennsylvania rally? | 61,150,980 | 61,165,376 |
55d5e2ff417c205d50579bc58ea33704d56fe6ea | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x55206cf2e40498e3740221f6e908a9e6313cf17b0fffbc055972510462e0510b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Ceasefire" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "Comrade Kamala" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 0 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Will J.D. Vance say "fake news" during Pennsylvania rally? | 61,150,980 | 61,165,376 |
1ccf4f98b9641dc37d26a23d881f7fc96cbb9672 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xdf1d1f41384eadac3512e049d553725d014889580e65fdff3e72114253675d5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "Comrade Kamala" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "mamaw" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during CNN interview? | 61,150,980 | 61,201,417 |
be8b231fffcbd107f4745237f63d88da01455534 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xf9e0b5d294c255a0a338df77be4da9464e710fcfbf219ca3b6b0b3c36dad45bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "mamaw" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "debate" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "border" during CNN interview? | 61,150,980 | 61,201,803 |
48e8322b9fef7bbe4c44b18b9962d2e5a51878e2 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xb57a1c21b8ec763e43b11b2b54d87fc6f0b5dbcbab30d76310d4c4ce5fcab3b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "debate" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Will J.D. Vance say "poison" during Pennsylvania rally? | 61,150,981 | 61,150,981 |
52dbf7cf4b4a70fec9de05fb080440ad4f421214 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x98d34aba0b36e71df420a48afc888aed2f7a8e9c75eea9b99e209dc7cd8d4010 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Abortion" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Con... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "fake news" during Michigan town hall? | 61,181,777 | 61,201,418 |
dc328ff0f5b8c52984e240ee1489eee7d0cedb93 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xaddd0f2052098c7db9c631f1429ad9475cd7162b255f7ccc8666798ce3bf231c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Abortion" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Prosecutor" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3.... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during Michigan town hall? | 61,181,777 | 61,201,418 |
69e128b8d2d43dfa876b3e9cd128a24e3771c5f2 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xd8040cdb0c78770788e79340ff176cbfa25ffac9fb8253c06b4e363fa6e71dd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Prosecutor" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Democracy" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "World War 3" during Michigan town hall? | 61,181,777 | 61,201,418 |
17629152945c5da69797eb4088abb93b97b571f5 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xe2e9619685689c1bd8a24154a692869f7d3765e4b8e14e5a200d07bf53a44473 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Democracy" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Inflation" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3.... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "MAGA" during Michigan town hall? | 61,181,777 | 61,202,231 |
d3d910e4b065a34c514b82fee9307f169aa7c6b0 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1a4649739c517119a1ebd7888b01f8e727ca66eb12c2c6dc0a1e43ce18ceae66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris say "Inflation" during CNN interview? | Event: what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Iran military response by Friday? | Event: iran-military-response-by-friday-aug-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will J.D. Vanc... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "DEI" or "Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion" during CNN interview? | 61,181,777 | 61,202,772 |
89b1c115063ce40a1a9633b3b594eb5feac838f8 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x0a84822de355ed948f3e67600e69aaff16eefa273749514692678c79e0e7572f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Iran military response by Friday? | Event: iran-military-response-by-friday-aug-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "fentanyl" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will J... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "drill baby drill" during Michigan town hall? | 61,181,777 | 61,207,087 |
e641f4d0fd6a0e30feafaa5ac198823996893a8f | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x5b2d0f7682db45cc2558b3d140a7b5cd6fd089fe54d2e56fe565e8a5dd53f1f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "fentanyl" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "manufacturing" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "marxist" during Michigan town hall? | 61,181,777 | 61,207,087 |
e6fd0170c485f940cb98dafc23d0541534b16d6d | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x92ab1e438bde7c06b6bf240616bebafa451bb2211a6bde0692b560e440cb53c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "manufacturing" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "China" 5 or more times during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Will Donald Trump say "border" 10 or more times during Michigan town hall? | 61,181,777 | 61,207,087 |
6b85e50afa7605fb79a93d1f720191adb765912c | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x7bf1880877811b8bc07642fc80b4fe617f010409128aab4480772bd4213d0e39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "China" 5 or more times during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "border" 25 or more times during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during CNN interview? | 61,181,777 | 61,207,389 |
42928e0e475c998a18b00d75b9228391fb57bfd4 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x12ceff1a096f47b8b1d0f73aed35f6e0d86b21587a55adc1298e871a066f7304 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "border" 25 or more times during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "Pavel" or "Durov" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | ... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "Project 2025" during CNN interview? | 61,201,417 | 61,201,417 |
326028e6c09c3c94f06d31f3316e1b213af7a0b3 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x4f0853b45fc77526d3ab1efffeb56ab6ad56129838b254630b1435e8f244ded4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "Pavel" or "Durov" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "tampon" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "Tips" during CNN interview? | 61,201,417 | 61,235,183 |
7887f561dd1ffd1f4b6b85333e88299e76345dff | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x1dcb984cf09f9c115c759e483dd77596d427d4144c0c2499f7dfa034772b0647 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "tampon" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' record September opening? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-record-september-opening | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Kamala Harris say "San Francisco" during CNN interview? | 61,201,418 | 61,204,579 |
faa4149da46cada61388324fe8ce4a8ac3a1fd03 | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0x23027cbb552f14a78300be1ef1ae3a17c945f7156182750e64223898239884e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' record September opening? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-record-september-opening | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0005854789486593678
2. Question: Will Donald Trump say "border czar" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choi... | no | 0 | what-will-walz-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Tim Walz say "Teacher" during CNN interview? | 61,204,579 | 61,370,534 |
82f168b240efe3804cb9bd98c2d6d311358b9faa | 0x02ed455e8f8025edc17e388cf31bdb2dedb8cce3 | 0xf71366b12602a78136781d20e68771fc12f52768bedfb9845988ea906fdc83ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump say "border czar" during Michigan town hall? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-event | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will J.D. Vance say "you guys" during Pennsylvania rally? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-pennsylvania-rally | Choice: no | Con... | no | 0 | what-will-walz-say-during-cnn-interview | Will Tim Walz say "J.D." or "Vance" during CNN interview? | 61,207,389 | 61,208,304 |
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