sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
c3250df7c2a82a6b23fe9f4d002ccbbc315ba129 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x8ecd9791ffa3c003ddaa5bb49cf8100b4e1569efb77d783f45d94c30732d75d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | kent state | 1 | cfb-kent-ttu-2025-09-06 | Kent State vs. Texas Tech | 76,142,441 | 76,142,441 |
73e99e2855e857a52a8441d035a8bac0c9c5a331 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xda22d7ce9502d82a25d9bcb8792991a24032844822773cccca571f8d075b69e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on September 6? | 76,149,509 | 76,149,509 |
7c7b52ba43e8f7af251ec777e84df770869b63f2 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x017fe58c3b59c73dede56de600cdcc5ef017e771b8d9a777fcd8ce70f874fa2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-7 | Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or below on September 7? | 76,177,060 | 76,177,060 |
4c002571e9459a000a67d2fea99388e4928bde17 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x00bb503636dd544d44a6ebd212dbf1789bbbfebe5838868ad332da5f39114c06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,179,418 | 76,179,418 |
ad72bb670b5e697e4e945bf13b26af995b08e94a | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x167dbee92444d77475a0b22cf37c1ff3ffe20c8dc56b5ca834312faf5d3117dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Liam Lawson win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,179,418 | 76,179,418 |
a43ed3d6a3003df97941c815b3429319fbad93af | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x3bd062feabee205546d3c4361d1feed01c8d6652d0ff7fec64e6770ae0aa4e9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,179,418 | 76,179,418 |
b9008fe9346180b26623a2daf3284d1125e7b7a0 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x3c38b42a3743c95ffc38d2a8a19d1a2ac8ec4f27c060fb245e4484af1e4f6042 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,179,418 | 76,179,418 |
a20d55880e553be3d017953acc827e22644ae4d0 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x478e98c31b55a86241433ebf8c6aade419a001054a6dad06b11bb093666a32fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Franco Colapinto win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,179,418 | 76,179,418 |
775bb1b96c39a3870a77275937fb461a4a59d8b8 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x77ee69c3d71289a7c0715fd6a6d9a26527f2c5e093734e8dfba281a0ce203995 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,179,418 | 76,179,418 |
4b9fb2ce09e8f550fb4cd8a142828a66ced583bf | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x7ecfe0e65c15d283557b5dc7fa496231b60a29df2809f9406e1ff360e8e2cced | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,179,418 | 76,179,418 |
39f7267300e5abf96a311d4c2cdab0cb62fdfc25 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xa24369344a0cd7bee62b9533f0bc9a7aae1b22454cc42c51ba47c67001ce302a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,179,418 | 76,179,418 |
c8e93a06908c769881099082a7f4951f123b7175 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xcea04248d047f4fd7d208c5fe48fe01a30e30751fd11e6cec2a5f00300d04cb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GamerLegion win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Oliver Bearman win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,179,418 | 76,179,418 |
af7bb5cc06a07e44771a33c017e911ec2053a4ad | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xd031f01adc019c6aa9c51752e2442de0095d1a5ef5f2fa21bf14875fce089c36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4800 on August 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or below on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-20 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,179,418 | 76,179,418 |
654e781e03d350dd3c769a7cfa745b7820287bad | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xd2911492ceb519dbb228acd9742ab87322f8ac3b90bb93f62a462d91acbfe682 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or below on August 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liquid win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Alexander Albon win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,179,420 | 76,179,420 |
f07a0d9638e55e4d5c1f3c6755608120e55a361e | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x819310f554e75caa69f70830c73e7f2675f7cb4e7506bd82d29a47d689dc3ae2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liquid win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be 74°F or higher on September 9? | 76,278,506 | 76,278,506 |
740855ca5e1639ab048eef30e9d1336472c66c55 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x0948f0e9d180ce84d83e3a563237a27a7c94f8bb0bdcb426782bbacbadf88f16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on August 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on August 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-augus... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,291,472 | 76,291,472 |
2552233b3c2fae428ac2485e583fb196694ff8fc | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x4d960a394e46f016691b871bbe29caf617c186ae6e91e7232b610052a2d04770 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on August 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another team win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Will the price of XRP be less than $2.82 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | 76,291,472 | 76,291,472 |
820a86832fe93cf9a4a55a62ea9412a661207916 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x51e1b852622a83d102ca61fc752d2466a799c37bd6da7d39a61d14e41d8f1ee6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another team win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or below on August 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Will the price of XRP be between $2.85 and $2.88 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | 76,291,472 | 76,291,472 |
d76b280de50da13bff0e47613ce03116c17c36be | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x69ca88437a6d99f7ce361fa7a874aef40d4d3a6ef3d13c3907b08fc093d9cb50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or below on August 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4900 on August 28 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-28-4pm-et | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Will the price of XRP be greater than $3.09 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | 76,291,472 | 76,291,472 |
9cb7d618ee72a0c4cb793972b7ade18d7144920f | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xa8f20353e7641032a727b02dd78f4ce21c67f8beb12d88aa8cc7b938b9aef76a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4900 on August 28 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-28-4pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 75°F or higher on August 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Will the price of XRP be between $3.06 and $3.09 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | 76,291,472 | 76,291,472 |
6c04b7a7b31748a5124a84d2f515e4d49c1f8c27 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xb44bc1f3df8650631a655574dfe2dbba50eb2fb92d5fb97cbe035406a165f1af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 75°F or higher on August 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on August 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-2... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Will the price of XRP be between $3.03 and $3.06 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | 76,291,472 | 76,291,472 |
e3681ee98d65f6af6bcfde534c2ee0579c0a0a92 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xda3323df4ab45d695536f00cc6ba685ab6efcf7747ff9f65d3a9b8c4c0f00152 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on August 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ECSTATIC win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,291,472 | 76,291,472 |
81ea9ffeb82b7dc1299ee7c7c8a828118e4e8daa | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xf00ac37ae4b69db59e7bd88f8c0e18068f3587f955306b3fd41dd5903586db07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ECSTATIC win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Imperial win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest ... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Will the price of XRP be between $2.82 and $2.85 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | 76,291,472 | 76,291,472 |
3e712aed24113210aedad03d4ab186c000dc41f1 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x6da79577faa6819fb0833f7d3969b283000f855aa1b4c0cfc684dab9daddda09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Imperial win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or below on August 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Will PF win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | 76,311,192 | 76,311,192 |
5ee86e437ab3eb3cb5a2915eff1b31fc98898c97 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xe8b033e93cc60f3a37dac60100aae7dce95aa7e543472b3b23a40b709ef651ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or below on August 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–114 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-september-10-8pm-et | Will the price of XRP be between $3.12 and $3.15 on September 10 at 8PM ET? | 76,311,192 | 76,311,192 |
5cfa31f4a6e60237f843aa4aa03f65381a05ff7c | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x61206d56fb88f95a90434ab919cee555e8b7fa911add58e87725becb81d69e88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 100–114 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on August 30 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-august-30-4pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-september-11-12am-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,225 on September 11 at 12AM ET? | 76,312,301 | 76,312,301 |
9fd8d886902c72a99e7ae58f13bced38ed11eecf | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x1dcc245b23c980812df5af5e50f993fd3b644d31ba6e31ab94fe49a920b62190 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on August 30 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-august-30-4pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FlyQuest win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,313,128 | 76,313,128 |
4162c777a7d8df29f0c90e5c69145e63098ed725 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x27795fb48c20580314242248a3b3b0038c64356bf2d8deae24af5f8a560b2306 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FlyQuest win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4000 on September 3 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-3-4pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or below on September 11? | 76,328,868 | 76,328,868 |
9b999627e412abd44fc3575dc288cb917ffc8976 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x5110218e9ed571ca4571af2957b2b966a2258bcf37ba67d2a8de064c4f236830 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4000 on September 3 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-3-4pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4600 on September 6 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-6-4pm-et | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-september-11-8am-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,325 on September 11 at 8AM ET? | 76,328,868 | 76,328,868 |
f44dff1bdf3f1b3e32c211841d718c32d2ec33bf | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xeee0f584ac265e109b85267b9174c2c27314723241ee0a38da013ddb3df1716d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4600 on September 6 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-6-4pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kent State vs. Texas Tech | Event: cfb-kent-ttu-2025-09-06 | Choice: kent state | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest te... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-september-11-8am-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,300 on September 11 at 8AM ET? | 76,328,868 | 76,328,868 |
e18ad8b3a4ab72573e67eca82495c3192ca05762 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x0a0a2612635e1d7c8637b3edb3c2117607b8771ed2adb0923e85a8d6fe2e620e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kent State vs. Texas Tech | Event: cfb-kent-ttu-2025-09-06 | Choice: kent state | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on September 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the h... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-september-12-12am-et | Will the price of XRP be less than $2.88 on September 12 at 12AM ET? | 76,350,481 | 76,350,481 |
d3b2d39d40268e90c887fda29c4cada67a9dc29d | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xa56b0a65ed3d82a5d2f55917971117776e8d539538c3da138fcc7b4930703bb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on September 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or below on September 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-septemb... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-september-12-12am-et | Will the price of XRP be between $2.88 and $2.91 on September 12 at 12AM ET? | 76,350,481 | 76,350,481 |
27ef6293ec24f1405b01741366c631be34a8928d | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x196e27150a19efff254306c92b7146c0872cfbe325daa4491fd80e235b3c1da1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or below on September 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-september-12-8am-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,675 on September 12 at 8AM ET? | 76,368,712 | 76,368,712 |
218e7643da2b9184430b5ee146f09cd1584f2536 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xe4fdaa46c5c0e2a4422737eb5d646d2e7ade8a7db3555b6fa37d35deb3817e53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liam Lawson win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lance Stro... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or below on September 12? | 76,368,712 | 76,368,712 |
27914b4eba4cb205ef5a56387deee5f124630d37 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xeb11e6a55e4db44ed3e413cf99346f0a16a263abe840ff864f7bf91afda75ebd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liam Lawson win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Esteban Ocon wi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on September 12? | 76,368,712 | 76,368,712 |
17fd971b688bbb9f8069864250b7d6743c196253 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xcc5c6fbc680006bdb7a03c8046ee499c6b43e586358a48b9c9c4495c27647e94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Franco Colapin... | yes | 1 | solana-price-september-12-4pm-et | Will the price of Solana be less than $230 on September 12 at 4PM ET? | 76,377,793 | 76,377,793 |
fe47d67cd50da6c5ed62bf56c9c38381d9b074bf | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x551b5c27f6a438b8da705046af130953f544421011dc52ff84f85f2afb423b88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Franco Colapinto win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nico Hulke... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,389,050 | 76,389,050 |
40cdf175f96cb3171d482117e6989d3e9fa8ed68 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xb0d410d74007c700bdfc9d5d0220cc81d3c581f24509739214889b5ef8e39834 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Franco Colapinto win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Yuki Ts... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or below on September 13? | 76,407,622 | 76,407,622 |
955f58c9b188daa1d702b1674a582bb9a944ff0d | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xb88c86b2a76f7ac5397cb477822422b8cef9ca2c5b1ee6c9dae252b666284262 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isack Hadja... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on September 13? | 76,407,622 | 76,407,622 |
c59aa3fb549357408d7852b872a59e2a36313227 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x1afbaa2739586855cb99f676d206e3ad052107a0bd7dae7b92040061808832fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oliver Bearman... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-13 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on September 13? | 76,433,228 | 76,433,228 |
d7d87bdf8b3ee3fb51fb981ae75222ebae5c98c5 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x2c81e31be1853726ab6767f3712973989dfaedf59f80f029d1e1a250b506b3a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oliver Bearman win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Pierre Gasly... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,433,228 | 76,433,228 |
b2e5c1bd8eade5cab514dc62f7bc09e25709e0c5 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xc76a258289f6439ce79ec076be09d779c22558cad0ad05af8009b57ea753656b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oliver Bearman win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Al... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,433,228 | 76,433,228 |
c206240f06c15455e5ca074ffc3a0182b457265e | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xe317e4a5cc510dcff0751f7205f068015965b1816633489b708ea6425726d77d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alexander Albon win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be 70°F or higher on September 13? | 76,433,228 | 76,433,228 |
ebc8278eda73706fffda229b8d51b8b79d84e37d | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x64167387ca95ef87acf1967fcaccab16e6f32830346e51fd8aabcc718c6aca96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Albon win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 74°F or higher on September 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,462,004 | 76,462,004 |
32eadaf9f55f4c7f28f23b26d7f3676742ec2ad8 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x31dfe61521aa9a63c682b7810735384ac9218a650598f6f1b9cb81159712efc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 74°F or higher on September 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-septemb... | yes | 1 | fissure-playground-2 | Will HEROIC win FISSURE Playground 2? | 76,499,789 | 76,499,789 |
6a09484418a484d5913c2c6df2f55bab2eb2825f | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xcf3350caa6912abe11380e85721b6b29578c0926a78ce9ec24b13ade43e24a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be less than $2.82 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | fissure-playground-2 | Will Lynn Vision Gaming win FISSURE Playground 2? | 76,499,789 | 76,499,789 |
befcbf356ff61ca8da92359d14bba882fb691665 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x1c270d2f47e5ff0d5b4f86a0d43eeb0aa504f9a799157c3b360994c23cf8c004 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be less than $2.82 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.85 and $2.88 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | korea-open-winner | Will Tatiana Prozorova win the 2025 WTA Korea Open? | 76,531,817 | 76,531,817 |
cd896cd2c0acc07d14fbf4127819914479cdfa6e | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x874afa080c7444565080c3533aec5f6a5c62bcd9cba31014770308a2edee482a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.85 and $2.88 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be greater than $3.09 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,531,817 | 76,531,817 |
2083998e6696f94d2cd083e3442f33ab87c55edc | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x9059ce38616fa5d12e745fa2b1f24da49ee417f4c7e9d6e280ee7480e5e846b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be greater than $3.09 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $3.06 and $3.09 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,531,817 | 76,531,817 |
2a30198e19dc5ffd6276da4b1b542fafe95fd005 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x9a2fdd3ab7fc653477f4f2bd1e1b7a7e47b61cf32ee841586b144c88eea06df5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $3.06 and $3.09 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $3.03 and $3.06 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,531,817 | 76,531,817 |
95477466c165cec0216daec12ab100a1c9a79db8 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x10ad1843c00b4a472cbc8807445fd31120e3453f1a215919078f021d2702c00d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $3.03 and $3.06 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choic... | yes | 1 | korea-open-winner | Will Anastasia Zakharova win the 2025 WTA Korea Open? | 76,569,476 | 76,569,476 |
0644be9b1c07a9230ee163094651192a32ced7e3 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xa873897a5a2f88cd8d7890e2d8a96cf92f242f845ca53540863b4fdfd5bf2c91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.82 and $2.85 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Choic... | yes | 1 | korea-open-winner | Will Dayeon Back win the 2025 WTA Korea Open? | 76,569,476 | 76,569,476 |
e65670962185433cc77a8db3bba25c09e956f0b8 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xf2869199dfb998ad9373fbb9f1e13ff00c8241f9a15ead1b87a0338db8d7613f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.82 and $2.85 on September 10 at 4AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-4am-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PF win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or below on September 18? | 76,592,718 | 76,592,718 |
1d449d076b3db4ec34d464047e28f76d0c32e011 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x307b54e7c902b3b9c5eedb24b790c111528378ca59a8e10a4e33651ab3fc28de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PF win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $3.12 and $3.15 on September 10 at 8PM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-8pm-et | Choice: yes |... | kondratavicius | 0.0001 | dana-whites-contender-series-season-9-week-7 | Kondratavicius vs. Barbir | 76,670,043 | 76,670,043 |
2c73f97c25b684ed380e2e9287e0d2f399e1e8ce | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xabc8ea614793a5ebef7dfaac76df2c96132bdbcd5c9f229fe4569054845caba3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $3.12 and $3.15 on September 10 at 8PM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-10-8pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,225 on September 11 at 12AM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-12am-et | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,672,550 | 76,672,550 |
9ee863165f4b2388be25c166195fecee24957eac | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xe8b568729b3928c8190d20cbffe3e5b04c1961dad09935b2487c82621361053a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,225 on September 11 at 12AM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-12am-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 |... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,736,762 | 76,736,762 |
6293f66017f0f9f1921df241a17cebe10bdcbc2b | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xa610d4f8b4d3eca5f6c5de95639e05a11dfa754fdac03eb25bb0618a26a2ae27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or below on September 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-septem... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on September 23? | 76,812,503 | 76,812,503 |
b17a6631314db6e4087a8fcbd09c96f4238af144 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x0085587c396bf1523f5641c03721838865cefa199f4d79416a3f00d289ce0b5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or below on September 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,325 on September 11 at 8AM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-29 | Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or below on September 29? | 77,076,504 | 77,076,504 |
4d2f2ff3d23d0e31b80d8b4607e01f666e32b38f | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x35999852d8c307fd8341a64d52308ce2e654c2f1110619d438d8175de898e1b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,325 on September 11 at 8AM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-8am-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,300 on September 11 at 8AM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-8am-et | C... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or below on September 30? | 77,099,704 | 77,099,704 |
9519f5df70e597b50d2dd2dc0935dd99e481f016 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xa658a4515b1c88049ff16f34b152413043426a40d8714bf6e40fe4e43c0d6b99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,300 on September 11 at 8AM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-8am-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be less than $2.88 on September 12 at 12AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-12-12am-et | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or below on October 2? | 77,181,051 | 77,181,051 |
c7b2ea333aaad529a1433e5834e91e18094be103 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x71cded3a6fe668b23e51fdb17cf20075af5b82f93095f878926f436e5f4d29e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be less than $2.88 on September 12 at 12AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-12-12am-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.88 and $2.91 on September 12 at 12AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-12-12am-et | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or below on October 3? | 77,202,869 | 77,202,869 |
47f8270cebf18bf409ca3a81aca9f7574cbbbd90 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x23bf0aecc351b2dea56ae7cba71b6a11531b64fa88d636152f3e2b364068732d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.88 and $2.91 on September 12 at 12AM ET? | Event: xrp-price-september-12-12am-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,675 on September 12 at 8AM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-12-8am-et | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 4? | 77,239,168 | 77,239,168 |
39060f9edfc818515981fdfeafe0f89bcfb2d496 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x61d80f49255ee7d037258a6b6862c661d7ddc0042931e69b2c8e16fdc4a0c63e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,675 on September 12 at 8AM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-12-8am-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or below on September 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-12... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on October 4? | 77,239,168 | 77,239,168 |
da49f416b8e09abfa5f339d4e92d37e2df21e37f | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xa2b7d95ce791a767219d347d64d8aacda05f7c25d2848508212589a57196009f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or below on September 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on September 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-sep... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on October 4? | 77,239,168 | 77,239,168 |
0e551506fe9b12925da8bcc78f595a6ad27f448d | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x0a6e99016e76719d8f626b0653b747da3320d0b8a59abebbb0ec8698d846d2e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on September 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $230 on September 12 at 4PM ET? | Event: solana-price-september-12-4pm-et | Choi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on October 5? | 77,304,460 | 77,304,460 |
8adb1192bcb5ef86ed3eb35b530e9bc0e4e6e6ee | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x8a3b0ef2299cbd8fc433207dd5790ff26f894f1f81645acc4d401835c79107f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $230 on September 12 at 4PM ET? | Event: solana-price-september-12-4pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or below on October 6? | 77,380,529 | 77,380,529 |
5ba67b6abb19eecf40e0099b265a4fc0b887e12b | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x68a73626edca922d5a67ae31da72bd6026b8488df4f8429e076184dc16fc8e18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or below on September 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-septem... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be 70°F or higher on October 9? | 77,480,970 | 77,480,970 |
32da6f2cf0a486c5da81775ddcde369817dffece | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x2ca4e5e40afc02b802803a34474d99241df24082609ceab83cb7b96529cf1532 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or below on September 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on September 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-sep... | bnk fearx | 0 | lol-wb-fox-2025-10-11 | LoL: Weibo Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO3) | 77,509,820 | 77,509,820 |
a44b4532482aae11efdc4dd11f263d360cd672b4 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x1fe002d3c34771256457713c1702a79379d90be6500c511f5ac82c23407fdc0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on September 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on September 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on October 12? | 77,594,668 | 77,594,668 |
bbe1b4d7577c7d9b66a482506094fc4d94e093df | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x927c859619c6641c026b4adcbe723d1f3dc05c3859b53a38c25f08243cbc7235 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on September 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on October 11? | 77,594,668 | 77,594,668 |
929522453d6998143508560c41d47cbac986f002 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x08fc59e4e36f05cb84b8230f73f4d12ce48b0c7dfa0e0c52ba201597dc771c08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-sept... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 13? | 77,618,221 | 77,618,221 |
e5fce54849a735051746fcb75ab3deb54f18a660 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x1be26011997555bc936dd249b6eaf5d52be503ba55879d50c20788074644c824 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 70°F or higher on September 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-sept... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-273 | Will “Steve” be the top global Netflix movie this week? | 77,687,890 | 77,687,890 |
fd5c98f835273a7a68bea37b5d3964cf067521bf | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xc149f515f68be9d60bdcc906286ab326a9042d924ead8e15e2c50d1a9cd65382 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 70°F or higher on September 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-sep... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-273 | Will “Maze Runner: Death Cure” be the top global Netflix movie this week? | 77,687,890 | 77,687,890 |
1234fe22c0e2948c11dca660d5544bc2d794759e | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xd8951f17e16e9195e0314e27d1e9ed48563988143462cee120f4da70d912cf62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will HEROIC win FISSURE Playground 2? | Event: fissure-playground-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will L... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-273 | Will “We Have Always Lived in the Castle” be the top global Netflix movie this week? | 77,687,890 | 77,687,890 |
574f69cc55e5b589ed52058f92b2c5de596a8d8b | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xb478ae82a0f7dd0593426c78d4c926846da78cd055ee06fa092ff6bc21a5e805 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will HEROIC win FISSURE Playground 2? | Event: fissure-playground-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lynn Vision Gaming win FISSURE Playground 2? | Event: fissure-playground-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tatiana Prozorova win the 2025 WTA Korea Open? | E... | yes | 1 | caf-civ-ken-2025-10-14 | Will Kenya win on 2025-10-14? | 77,692,285 | 77,692,285 |
9374fbd13386ad4ef0e01fc274733f01a157fb7f | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xbb5161289705896db91b8398cd19260c30626872fbd8922afe91c470214c660d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lynn Vision Gaming win FISSURE Playground 2? | Event: fissure-playground-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tatiana Prozorova win the 2025 WTA Korea Open? | Event: korea-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from Sept... | no | 1 | caf-mar-cgo-2025-10-14 | Will Morocco win on 2025-10-14? | 77,692,285 | 77,692,285 |
26c048768abacef4f054b9477b006eb2f5d4ecdf | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x59c3ab65ee03c51f11c33fe97f0cc161e0dd658512d59f334b63e75870d04577 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tatiana Prozorova win the 2025 WTA Korea Open? | Event: korea-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | down | 0.001187 | rklb-up-or-down-on-october-16-2025 | Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on October 16? | 77,747,187 | 77,747,187 |
05d7b4e423f14b143445a8bef6d3ccb5901ea80a | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x087161515d6ade47ab01cc67f15216831321355a4111aa5ea5292c1c67b6d380 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-sep... | down | 0 | nya-up-or-down-on-october-16-2025 | NYA (NYA) Up or Down on October 16? | 77,747,229 | 77,747,229 |
9884bb39851fb891c301b78de4b4a7fbd0d5f7bf | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xe89ded875d7aaf3866f54ecf523877af41a91bd0bba58fa2346c681c68aaae68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-sep... | down | 0.0001 | nflx-up-or-down-on-october-16-2025 | Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on October 16? | 77,747,249 | 77,747,249 |
aa9ed27734877f384a734b4fe8adb89536547a12 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xfaabb2f74eaa8bbd304c36fd1bdf9bc7a5fa11fb44e697922dac8907f10bec2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anastasia Zakharova win the 2025 WTA Korea Open? | Event: korea-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on October 15? | 77,771,884 | 77,771,884 |
9a966ec59f70e97ed91f41c3c907854a98eb563e | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xed40e12c3f4d063f7b37e0a5bb568a4bad9351fda07e51af1c033fd151a6ab29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anastasia Zakharova win the 2025 WTA Korea Open? | Event: korea-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dayeon Back win the 2025 WTA Korea Open? | Event: korea-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on October 17? | 77,782,295 | 77,782,295 |
9bdbe8d87547ab3555cf3c523a82edc956c3a94e | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xf9644fbfafef9064bb6d65333b39b3f1c18eb9110c6b1f8f8871255622c8ef42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dayeon Back win the 2025 WTA Korea Open? | Event: korea-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or below on September 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ko... | down | 0 | meta-up-or-down-on-october-17-2025 | Meta (META) Up or Down on October 17? | 77,783,517 | 77,835,925 |
2ecca2b7d9a567f3f98f0c02b24bc9b7313ef912 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x597f575a1ee0a4d8aca5679a01fbb9d2fda8d037746b0aabd33393c25c461f29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or below on September 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kondratavicius vs. Barbir | Event: dana-whites-contender-series-season-9-week-7 | Choice: kondratavicius | Confidence: 9... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on October 19? | 77,900,471 | 77,900,471 |
3a0d019f4c916ed379a847234573d66058153bfe | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xcf97658c59e99692f8ed9f4475b20a58b96d8ce53e9dedb4a2ab00dc6b04fbc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kondratavicius vs. Barbir | Event: dana-whites-contender-series-season-9-week-7 | Choice: kondratavicius | Confidence: 9.999000099990002e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: y... | down | 0 | bnb-up-or-down-on-october-20 | BNB Up or Down on October 20? | 77,904,956 | 77,942,182 |
f9909fc3a6b5e5c41e4cb996b9384b5c8999db3f | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x303f024a9233fcce99bd657f17cda1c6304da3f49d458b8a259c2d6aab83ab34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-sept... | yes | 0.444435 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-october-20-26 | Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 20-26? | 77,916,805 | 77,916,805 |
6bb1b68f8512cfda07e04c6c515057550917d414 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x5f4e7848aae88fd8efb4068cda0f4ea7855ed39e9427128c5d93e90a17f89362 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on September 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-sept... | no | 0 | nhl-2025-26-presidents-trophy-winner | Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy? | 78,050,570 | 78,050,570 |
617595150f4b04cd32467ee5b64bd1f6c402ffc3 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xf51d268094a6a12194bd9ca5c841946b5d684a8e6d800758e1a4e44012fe0d2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on September 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or below on September 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-septe... | wizards | 1 | nba-was-mil-2025-10-22 | Spread: Wizards (-7.5) | 78,096,678 | 78,096,678 |
96a963d8e61031927470f788f9304d420f64a9d7 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x1960e51b829cef28a30d2e69f26f65a72449aa4c357c558845ca44e0abc23006 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or below on September 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or below on September 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-septe... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-24 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 24? | 78,115,877 | 78,115,877 |
a02ed52d73861e3390e610d3c22a9bdbab77e018 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xc29112b103d8256bbabb6b51d6b44682f6fefce196558c35fad175aec5158312 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or below on September 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or below on October 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-24 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or below on October 24? | 78,115,877 | 78,115,877 |
912ef270c0402ae3f2334f2a8ea2df82ffff0a8a | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xfda1a1d8371dd8473b6281f7147bd5f30c73df82f8dbd280b5a4f74db45ff441 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or below on October 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or below on October 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-3 | Ch... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be 49°F or below on October 24? | 78,115,877 | 78,115,877 |
a768bd695d6bd728d974aa5af785bf697703ffe3 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x8516702ffd4a43bc1486b7e87fa33d0d5337ac28652159c2b4d9e2f06168b90b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or below on October 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-4 | ... | under | 0.00005 | nba-phx-lac-2025-10-24 | Suns vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 110.5 | 78,126,514 | 78,126,514 |
294084f49cc1f89e120185777db35945edc71b4f | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xf8049d85cb311be679e34724ffa40b802449fa9d76defad95e33098f78892de8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on October 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-4 ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or higher on October 24? | 78,127,948 | 78,127,948 |
ada7766e28cb842a63ebd9fb5659fa87430846f8 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0xe6a99e0009cb548474535478424e9ce00d7b26dc632cb8f4f4f1df26ea067d02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on October 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on October 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-4 | ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-24 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63-64°F on October 24? | 78,137,707 | 78,137,707 |
ea74c1e7e3c35ec924752e33287d94e36b226e45 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x30c912080ba7a3062bdb4bb087a958269f8abeb9979a6dd25eac255f572da7f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on October 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on October 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-5 | Ch... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-mrbeasts-i-saved-1000-animals-from-dying-video-on-day-1 | Will MrBeast's animal charity video get less than 15 million views on day 1? | 78,201,036 | 78,201,036 |
35c96fefb6003f6f1e004cce8b0e018de762a6e4 | 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee | 0x49a2526cfb25a970986fbffbc1ba5f81c893fdec31fa361e2cd83da60ea8550c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on October 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or below on October 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-6 | Ch... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-29 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on October 29? | 78,310,562 | 78,310,562 |
f41da603c71557277400240e48066f6d4796e1bc | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xd009ac14bccdd12925a2d9f8d910411556e4ed153337abb18a97b97fabcf7db0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Event: poland-presidential-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | 72,288,634 | 72,288,634 |
9fcb3e5214f4323640651a9ee1d24c6f1071d78d | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x4d2b5a5a6c6a5189b9328052c811950ab68adfe6497daaf3ac4a2254f4b622c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET?
Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et
Predict the user's choice an... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | 72,368,558 | 72,368,558 |
ed19faeb335af5188a228635da203c6df73a8411 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x2f1feca3df96b9a26813d1fcc7de7e002e96997aa7a3ccb5a64012102a51f7f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-manchester-city-vs-al-ain | Will Manchester City beat Al Ain? | 73,114,877 | 73,114,877 |
d856ef897d875af18e5859984c1744cbd87d30ad | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x8a720c56f2c26f0f9edb24e75abfdfa73f661f930cbcc1cfe5fdb0d6e5ba6a01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-esperance-sportive-vs-chelsea | Will Esperance Sportive beat Chelsea? | 73,203,372 | 73,203,372 |
b64e5ac332267748a117e7151f93ce76ee6163ce | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x8b167e11f1cfa7684287ffc8230cb1ed82a42ddc1ee93111dd4d37080d1f3a47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-esperance-sportive-vs-chelsea | Will Chelsea beat Esperance Sportive? | 73,203,382 | 73,203,382 |
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